Tag Archive for: Rae Guest

Stat of the Day, 23rd July 2020

Wednesday's pick was...

4.50 Yarmouth : Dashing Roger @ 7/1 BOG WON at 6/1 (Chased leaders, went 2nd over 3f out, led 2f out, hard pressed final furlong, edged slightly left, held on well )

Thursday's pick runs in the...

5.35 Pontefract :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


Squelch @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 4 Flat handicap for 3yo+ over 1m4f on Good to Firm ground worth £4,690 to the winner...


From the racecard, we see...

...a horse in good nick (seeks hat-trick today) hailing from an in-form yard and with a decent enough draw for her usual running style. Those of you using the cards regularly will already know the above, so I won't dwell on that.

This 4 yr old filly was a winner at this trip on similarly good to firm last out, so we know she gets the distance and going and her win two starts ago was at this grade, so that's hopefully another boxed ticked.

Her trainer Rae Guest seems to do well at getting horses to clock up back to back wins, as Squelch did in June and since the start of 2017, his sub-10/1 handicappers who were LTO winners have gone on to win 15 of 48 (31.25% SR) for 23.3pts (+48.5% ROI), including...

  • 13/42 (31%) for 19.8pts (+47.2%) with female runners
  • 13/41 (31.7%) for 25.79pts (+62.9%) with 3/4 yr olds
  • 13/34 (38.2%) for 26.87pts (+79%) with those last seen 1-25 days earlier
  • 8/26 (30.8%) for 9.42pts (+36.2%) on the Flat
  • 8/25 (32%) for 10.42pts (+41.7%) during May to August
  • 4/12 (33.33%) for 1.54pts (+12.8%) at Class 4
  • and 2/5 (40%) for 12.28pts (+245.6%) for today's jockey, Martin Harley...

...whilst 3-4 yr old females at 1-25 dslr are 10 from 25 (40% SR) for 25.81pts (+103.25% ROI), including 4 winners from 6 since the resumption of racing last month...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Squelch @ 7/2 BOG as was widely available at 7.30am Thursday with bigger offered in places, but as always please check your BOG status (*most are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 5.35 Pontefract

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. Please note I left for Greece on Monday lunchtime (20/07) for two weeks to look at some hotels for my travel agency business and get some R&R, so whilst I'll still be posting each day (except 04/08 when cover has been arranged), the timings may well be different.