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Racing Insights, 9th October 2021

The excellent Trainer/Jockey Combo Stats Report aka TJC is our free feature every Saturday, bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Quite simply, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’. This report quickly identifies the most profitable combinations.

Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing. And clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column.

We also have a selection of 'free' races for you and they are set to be...

  • 3.35 Newmarket
  • 4.35 Limerick
  • 5.22 Fairyhouse
  • 7.00 Chelmsford
  • 8.30 Chelmsford

And I think I'll look at my sole qualifier from generated from my fairly demanding criteria for the TJC 5 year handicap stats ...

Five wins and four places from sixteen isn't something easily ignored and Ross Chapman has just this one ride for Jane Walton here at Hexham. The race is a Class 4, 4yo+ handicap chase over 3m1f (after a 143 yard adjustment) on soft ground.

Nine runners are contesting the £3,812 prize and our runner is a 9yr old gelding (Real Armani) who was a runner-up last time out, just eight days ago beaten by just a length and a half here over course and distance despite coming off a near 20 week absence. Here's his racecard entry...

Jane Walton's record here at Hexham since the start of 2018 amounts to a 24% win strike rate (6/25) and a 44% place strike rate (11/25), which rise to 31.25% and 56.25% respectively with Ross Chapman in the saddle. To put that another way, with a different jockey riding, her runners have just 1 win and 1 further place from 9 starts.

Together here at Hexham, the handler and rider's 5 wins and 4 places from 16 include the following of note today...

  • 5w, 4pl from 15 with males
  • 5w, 4pl from 13 over fences
  • 5w, 4pl from 12 with 9-11 yr olds
  • 3w, 3pl from 8 who were placed LTO
  • 3w, 3pl from 7 over 3m0.5f/3m1f here
  • 2w, 1pl from 5 of soft/heavy ground

Whilst the horse himself has...

  • 2w, 3pl from 8 here at Hexham
  • 2w, 4pl from 7 over 3m0.5f/3m1f
  • 1w, 4pl from 6 on soft
  • 2w, 3pl (11222) over 3m0.5f/3m1f here at Hexham

Many of the above stats are shown on Instant Expert...

...where his place record is a thing of beauty.

He's 112422 in his last six outings, all of which were here at Hexham, with a 4th of 13 being his worst result, but that was over an inadequately short 2m4.5f, so I'm happy to over look that.

He was off track for almost 20 weeks before running here last week and he almost hung on for the win, but a slight lac of race sharpness caught up with him in the end, as did rival Supreme Steel carrying almost two stones less, eventually heading him inside the final furlong. Real Armani is entitled to come on for the run and should be in the mix at his favourite track/trip again.

He likes to race positively, often setting the pace...

...and this is actually a very good tactic here at Hexham, verified not only by the horse's past successes here, but also by our own pace data...

Mid-division runners' success needs to be taken with a little pinch of salt, as it's from. small sample size, but leaders have very good percentages for both win and place, suggesting Real Armani's tactics could be spot on here.

Summary

Real Armani was unlucky not to hang on last week, but having had the benefit of the run, he could very well go one better here. For Jim looks to be the biggest danger here off the back of a career best win at Bangor last time out, but he's up another 6lbs for winning by a neck and his record on soft ground isn't good, so I'll be taking some of the 4/1 offered by Bet365 (the only open book at 5.45pm) about Real Armani.