Tag Archive for: Rebecca Menzies

NH Trainers: Short vs Long Distance Travellers

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NH Trainers and distance travelled

We know that trainers have their own personalised methods of training horses, as well as how they go about placing horses in terms of which races they are going to run in, writes Dave Renham. In this article I will examine the records of certain trainers in terms of the distance they travel with their runners to the racecourse.

Introduction

Clearly, the location of training facilities impacts where the racecourses are in relation to the racing yard; trainers that train in Scotland for example are somewhat restricted in terms of short journeys to courses. Nick Alexander, who trains in Fife, has two courses within 40 miles (Musselburgh and Perth), and he still has to travel more than 90 miles to get to the other two Scottish tracks, Ayr and Kelso. Compare this to Nigel (and Willy) Twiston-Davies, Fergal O’Brien and Kim Bailey to name but three, who all train within 40 miles of six different racecourses.

In terms of data for this piece I have looked at UK National Hunt racing from 1st January 2019 to 11th November 2025. Any profit/losses have been calculated to Betfair Starting Price (BSP) less 2% commission.

How a journey impacts a horse is hard to say. Logically, we could argue that the less time the horse has to travel the better: there's less chance for it to become unsettled on the journey and such like. However, the counter argument would be that for a trainer to send a horse on a very long journey there must be a good reason. There are a few situations in which a trainer might look further afield including more suitable race conditions, a less competitive looking race, targeting a specific prize, or looking to increase the profile of the horse or indeed the yard by entering at bigger meetings. There are also cases when the owners might want to run somewhere, either because it's convenient for them or because of any associated prestige/good day out. Trainers' and owners' intentions are not always 100% aligned!

When considering how a horse is likely to fare on a shorter or longer journey to the track, I am hoping that digging into individual trainers will help to give some answers. My assumption is that each trainer will be different with some trainers primarily targeting races close to home, whereas others happier to travel the length and breadth of the country in search of what they deem to be better opportunities.

My approach will be to first look at distances of 40 miles and less to the racecourse, as most of these journeys involve a horse travelling for about an hour or less. I will then look at runners travelling distances of 175 miles or more, which I estimate means a minimum journey time of around four hours given the likely vehicle speed restrictions.

40 miles or less

I'll begin by looking at shorter journeys to the track, and below are the figures for all trainers combined when travelling 40 miles or less to the racecourse:

 

 

This gives us a benchmark to use as a comparison when looking at individual trainers. Below is a list of the all  trainers who saddled at least 250 runners in total with travel of 40 miles or less from stable to racecourse. I have restricted qualifiers to horses that were a BSP price of 12.0 or less in order to try and avoid potential skewed profits from huge-priced winners. The table is ordered by Betfair SP Return on Investment.

 

 

21 of the 36 trainers made a profit with their runners priced BSP 12.0 or less, while 23 had A/E indices of over 1.00. A few handlers stand out, namely Rebecca Menzies, James Moffatt, Ben Pauling and Matt Sheppard. All four secured excellent profits over the timeframe. Looking in more detail at the record of Rebecca Menzies, there are three courses within 40 miles of her stables and her breakdown for each was as follows:

 

 

Profits at all three with the Newcastle record being particularly strong. What is also worth noting is her consistency year on year with these runners. The graph below shows Menzies' yearly win strike rates in this context:

 

 

Every year has seen a win rate better than one in five and in addition to this she recorded a blind profit in every year.

There are six tracks within 40 miles of Ben Pauling's yard, and he secured a profit at five of these. His record at Worcester was particularly impressive with 21 wins from 75 (SR 28%) for a profit of £37.37 (ROI +49.8%). He has been a rare visitor to Ludlow but of his 20 runners there, eight won (SR 40%) for a profit of £15.25 (ROI +76.3%).

All of James Moffatt’s qualifiers raced at Cartmel, while Matt Sheppard made a profit at four nearby courses - Hereford, Ludlow, Stratford and Worcester.

Moving on to some of the ‘big guns’, Nicky Henderson’s record looks quite modest for him but, to be fair, the only courses within 40 miles are Ascot and Newbury, two tough tracks at which to attain profitability. Like Henderson, the yard of Paul Nicholls has only two courses within 40 miles, Taunton and Wincanton. Nicholls has hit a strike rate of over 30% at both with his runners priced BSP 12.0 or less, Taunton producing a small positive return of just under 10 pence in the pound.

Dan Skelton has six courses within 40 miles (Cheltenham, Hereford, Stratford, Warwick, Wolverhampton and Worcester) but only Hereford has seen a positive return with these shorter priced runners. His record there was 26 wins from 69 (SR 37.7%) for a profit of £26.50 (ROI +38.4%). However, with favourites across all six courses Skelton has done well thanks to 122 winners from 286 (SR 42.7%) for a profit of £25.95 (ROI +9.1%). With those market leaders he has proved profitable across the three main race types and the BSP ROI percentages for each race type are shown below.

 

 

 

As can be seen, he has fared especially well with favourites ‘on the level’ in NH flat races/bumpers, returning nearly 19 pence in the £.

Before moving on, let me share the trainers who have secured returns of over 10% (10p in the £) with horses that started in the top three in the betting when travelling 40 miles or less. The graph below shows the 11 who made the cut:

 

 

It is perhaps no surprise to see Messrs Moffatt, Pauling and Sheppard in the line up based on the earlier data, and it may also be interesting that none of the perceived big guns make the list. From a punting perspective I feel it always gives us an edge when some of the lesser-known trainers have potentially profitable angles to exploit.

 

175 miles or more

As we did with the shorter distances, let me set the scene by sharing the overall figures for all UK NH trainers who travelled 175 miles or more to race. The total number of qualifiers is roughly half of those in the '40 or less' group which is no surprise:

 

 

We see a higher strike rate than the 'short distance travelled' group, but almost double the losses. Here, backing all runners blind would have cost us 8.3p in the £ compared with 4.4p with the other group.

As before, when looking at individual trainers I will be using a price cap of BSP 12.0. To qualify for this list, trainers needed to have had at least 100 qualifiers within this price bracket, and I have again sorted the table by BSP ROI:

 

 

This time, only 11 of 34 trainers made a profit with their runners priced BSP 12.0 or less, while 13 had A/E indices of over 1.00. These percentages of 'positive' trainers are not as good compared with what we saw earlier. In general, at this juncture, it does seem that a shorter trip to the course has been preferable to a longer one. Of course, not all trainers have had enough qualifiers to make both lists but, for those who have, I have produced a comparison of their data at the end of the article.

Looking at trainers with positive records with long distance travellers, Laura Morgan’s figures have been extremely impressive. Her record during this timeframe was particularly good when she sent runners to Scotland: such entries (BSP 12.0 or less) combined to win 34 of the 101 races (SR 36.7%) for a healthy profit of £64.05 to £1 level stakes. Returns equated to over 63 pence in the £. The majority of her Scottish raiders travelled to Perth, but all four courses north of the border returned a profit as the table below shows:

 

 

It seems that any of Morgan's runners heading to Scotland in the near future demand close scrutiny, unless the market suggests otherwise.

Paul Nicholls was another trainer to make a blind profit during this timeframe with longer travellers. When stable jockey Harry Cobden was on board the record was even better hitting a strike rate of close to 37% (82 winners from 222) for a profit of £58.36 (ROI +26.3%). They combined to ride at least 20 times at four different courses – Aintree, Ayr, Musselburgh and Southwell – and all four produced decent returns. Indeed, when we examine the value metric (A/E index) at these four courses, we see that the runners proved to be outstanding value.

 

 

In terms of other big names, Dan Skelton, like Morgan, has performed well when sending runners to Scotland. His raiders have provided returns of over 23p in the £ thanks to a strike rate of nearly 32%. Nicky Henderson rarely sends runners to Scotland, especially Kelso, Musselburgh and Perth. However, he has had five winners from nine at Kelso, three from four at Musselburgh, and four from eight at Perth. Returns combined at these three courses were over 50p in the £.

Finally, in this section, let me share the trainers who had the best records with long travellers sent off in the top three in the betting. Five managed ROI percentages of over 10% and these are shown in the table below:

 

 

Short vs Long: A Comparison

The last thing I want to do is compare trainers who had enough qualifying runners to make both main tables, short and long. Obviously, readers can look at the separate tables above, but having the key figures next to each other is more convenient. I have used the following metrics: win percentage, ROI% and A/E indices. ROIs that were negative are coloured in red; what I deem to be positive stats are highlighted in blue:

 

 

 

This table helps to highlight some potentially useful pointers such as Henderson, Lacey and Murphy’s stronger records with longer travellers; compared with Pauling, Team Twiston-Davies, Evan Williams and Venetia Williams who all have much better records with horses running closer to home.

I hope this article has offered up some interesting and useful facts and figures that we can take advantage of over the coming months. With trainers we need to be aware that ‘one cap does not fit all’, and I believe the more we dig into individual trainer records the better.

- DR

Trainers with older runners (4 and up)

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In this sixth and final piece in the trainer performance by age jigsaw, I will be looking at the how trainers have fared with their with older runners, specifically those aged four and upwards. As with the previous articles in the series I have used UK flat racing data from 1st January 2016 to 31st December 2021 giving us six full seasons to examine. The results include turf and all weather racing.

I have used the Geegeez Query Tool once more for all  data analysis, and all profits / losses have been calculated to Industry Starting Price, although as we know these figures will be improved using either BOG, early prices or the exchanges.

Let us start by specifically looking at trainer performance with four-year-olds only.

General trainer performance with 4yo runners 

Many top trainers lose their stable stars at the end of their 3yo campaign, usually to stud or to race overseas, but a few top quality animals continue domestically into their fourth year.  Here are the top 20 trainers in terms of strike rate with their 4yo runners (minimum 150 runs). The data include both handicap and non-handicaps. It should be noted that the vast majority of races that 4yos compete in are handicaps:

 

 

There is a smattering of profitable trainers here; six to be exact. This includes the Gosden stable, and they have also secured the highest win strike rate. Nine of the 20 have achieved an A/E index of 1.00 or more suggesting that their runners have been good value as a whole. While on the subject of A/E indices, here are the remaining trainers who have achieved an A/E index of over 1.00.

 

 

That's another 15 trainers, making 24 in total. The chart includes several names we have not seen too often before and I would put many of these in the underrated trainer category.

Before digging into some of the individual trainers in more detail I want to look at a different measure of 4yo performance. To wit, I am going to focus on the top ten trainers in the table and look at the percentage of their runners that won at least one race as a 4yo. The reason for doing this is that some trainer figures can be skewed a little if they have winners of multiple races in their yard. To calculate this we take the number of a trainer’s 4yos that won at least once as a 4yo and divide it by all the horses that ran as a 4yo; that gives a decimal and then we multiply it by 100 to give the percentage. Here are the findings:

 

 

Four trainers have secured percentages in excess of 50% with Chris Dwyer hitting a very impressive 75%. It should be noted Dwyer has only had 24 individual 4yo runners in total but for 18 of them to win at least once is very impressive. Of the six that didn’t manage a win as a 4yo, five made the frame at least once. William Haggas is close to the 60% mark which, considering he has saddled 126 four-year-olds in the study period, is impressive. At the other end of the scale, Charlie Appleby’s and Team Crisford’s figures are lower than expected.

Now, of course, these figures could also be skewed if several 4yos in a stable have run just once or twice in the season. However, looking at the overall data, most trainers have similar spreads when it comes to number of runs for their horses.

 

Individual Trainer Performance with Four-Year-Olds

Moving back to individual trainers and their overall performance, let me drill down first into the performance of John and Thady Gosden. Here are some key stats:

  1. If you had backed all Gosden 4yo runners at Betfair SP the profit would stand at £73.24 equating to returns of 18p in the £.
  2. Their female 4yo runners have performed exceptionally well with 36 wins from 126 runs (SR 28.6%) for a profit of £54.97 (ROI +43.6%).
  3. In Group 1 races, the Gosdens have saddled 12 winners from 48 for an excellent 1 in 4 strike rate; in Group 2 contests this improves to 15 wins from 43 (SR 34.9%) showing a profit of £32.66 (ROI 76.0%).
  4. The best performances have been at distances of 1m2f or more where they have secured a 26% strike rate and returns of 9p in the £.

 

The Gosden stable has shown good consistency with their 4yos and this is illustrated when looking at their performance at different courses. Their win SR% are shown below (minimum 15 runs):

 

 

All tracks bar Newmarket have figures of 20% or higher. Chelmsford is a clear leader thanks to 7 wins from 16.

A look at William Haggas now and his strongest stats:

  1. Amazingly, his male and female runners have hit exactly the same win strike rate% of 21.4%.
  2. 4yos that have started favourite for Haggas have delivered with 65 wins from 174 runners (SR 37.4%) for a profit of £21.77 (ROI +12.5%). His second favourites have also proved profitable returning just under 15p in the £ from a 23.5% strike rate.
  3. Haggas is not one for sending 4yo runners to the front that often but when he does they have won 34% of their races (17 wins from 50).
  4. He has struggled a little at the very elite level with 0 winners from 19 in Group 1 races, although five did place. He has a better record when the level drops to Class 3 races or below; here he has secured 56 wins from 176 (SR 31.8%) for a healthy profit of £37.41 (ROI +21.3%).

 

Onto a few of the other trainers now and their strongest stats:

  1. Grant Tuer is an impressive 24 from 44 (SR 54.5%) with favourites. Backing all of them would have seen a profit of £26.97 (ROI 61.2%).
  2. Sir Michael Stoute has an excellent record on the all weather – 26 wins from 70 runners (SR 37.1%) producing returns of 24p in the £.
  3. Saeed bin Suroor has made a small 5p in the £ profit with horses priced 8/1 or shorter. Longer priced runners (above 8/1) have lost over 64p in the £ due to just 2 winners from 88.
  4. Chris Dwyer has saddled 12 winners from 46 runners when using 3lb claiming jockeys. They have produced a profit of £43.88 (ROI 95.4%). Also it should be noted that seven different 3lb claimers have secured at least one win. Hence these figures are not skewed by one jockey.
  5. William Knight has a decent record on the all weather hitting a win rate of slightly better than 1 win in 5. He is 8 from 18 at Wolves and 5 from 11 at Newcastle.

 

Individual Trainer Performance with Five-Year-Olds and upwards

Moving up in age now let's look at all runners aged five and older. Only trainers with 200+ runs have been considered. Here are the top 20 in terms of win strike rate:

 

 

As we get into the realms of more exposed and generally less elite horses, we see quite a few new trainers on the list when compared to previous tables in this series of articles. Making a profit however, is hard to come by as one would expect. Just two trainers were in profit at SP across the six year period, and both were barely in profit at that. It is, however, good to see ten trainers with A/E indices of 1.00 or more, implying they might offer value.

Roger Varian leads the table but he has made significant losses of around 32p in the £.

John Quinn has the best record as far as returns are concerned and these are some of his stronger stats:

  1. Quinn has made all his profits in turf races (returns of 16p in £). In all weather races he has had losses of 30p in the £.
  2. Shorter distances of 7f or less have produced the best overall performances with 48 wins from 256 runners (SR 18.8%) for a profit of £71.62 (ROI +28.0%).
  3. He has a 23% strike rate in non-handicaps; 11% in handicaps.
  4. Jockey Jason Hart has ridden over half of Quinn’s older runners securing a return of 16p in the £ over 260 rides.

 

It needs to be appreciated that horses aged five and older, especially handicappers, are typically not going to be the most consistent animals. Although if we look at Quinn’s yearly win strike rates they are all similar except for 2021, where his runners probably over-performed compared with previous seasons:

 

 

I thought it may be interesting to compare trainer performance when we split the older runners into two age bands – 4yos & 5yos, and 6yos and older - comparing Win% (SR%), A/E indices and Impact Values. To qualify a trainer needed at least 100 runners in each age band.

The right hand columns compare the 4 & 5yo Win% data with the 6yo+ Win% data by creating a ratio of one to the other. The greater the number above 1.00, the more 4 & 5yos are favoured; the smaller the number below 1.00, the more 6yos and older are favoured. Any A/E value of 1.00 or more has been highlighted in blue. I have also highlighted any win ratio of 1.4 and above or 0.7 and below. These ratios help to highlight where there is a significant difference in the Win SR%:

 

It is worth noting that both Derek Shaw and Rebecca Menzies have achieved A/E indices of 1.00 or more in both age bands. That is high achieving in this context. William Knight was close also with figures of 1.1 and 0.99. Meanwhile, Jane Chapple-Hyam’s strike rate for four- and five-year-olds is double that of her six-year-old and up group. She is the only trainer to attain a win ratio% of over 2.

And that brings the final curtain down on this trainer series. Hopefully you have found some nuggets within the six ‘episodes’ that will aid your betting and produce some additional profits. For me, it’s time to start some new research on a different aspect of racing. Until then, you'll find links to the other five articles below; and may I wish you the very best of luck with your punting.

- DR