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Stat of the Day, 4th August 2020

Monday's pick was...

3.15 Haydock : Mountain Peak @ 10/3 BOG WON at 15/8 (Chased leaders near side of group, went 2nd inside final furlong, drifted left and ran on to lead towards finish) 

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

5.30 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Rebel Leader @ 9/2 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 4 Novices' Handicap Chase over 2m4f on Good ground worth £3,964 to the winner... 

Why?...

Harry Whittington is a trainer on the up and, since he started, he's used Southwell as a proving ground for his abilities. As can be seen, Whittington enjoys an enviable 28% record at the Rolleston venue in the last five years, netting a +50.1 point profit (strong A/E and IV figures also).

We can also see that Gavin Sheehan has become a 'go to' guy, the pair combining to win better than 46% of the time (6-from-13) for +43.42.

Whittington is perfectly capable of getting one ready off a layoff, scoring with 14 of 77 such runners in the last two years for a small SP profit.

The horse has already shown ability and was cruising along in mid-division when coming down on his handicap debut last time. This is essentially his handicap debut again - if you see what I mean - and Harry has a strong 19.61% strike rate (10 wins from 51) with handicap debutants.

As an aside, I wasn't a fan (at the price) of the favourite - who wins infrequently and scored around quirky Cartmel last time; and Thibault was beaten as heavy second favourite even after the 11/10 fav came down at the first last time. He might appreciate the longer trip but has looked a weak finisher thus far...

...which all leads to... a 1pt win bet on Rebel Leader @ 9/2 BOG as was available (inc at least a couple BOGs, whilst a couple of firms were slightly bigger) at 8.15 am Tuesday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 5.30 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. Please note I'll be home from Greece late Monday/early Tuesday, Matt will cover for me for Tuesday and we'll revert to more normal timings from Wednesday.