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Stat of the Day, 5th September 2020

Friday's pick was...

4.50 Ascot : Gin Palace @ 5/1 BOG 6th at 11/2 (Tracked leader, every chance until winner quickened on over 1f out, weakened inside final furlong)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

3.10 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Recovery Run @ 5/2 BOG

...in a 5-runner, Class 4,  A/W Nursery Handicap for 2yo over 1m on Polytrack worth £4,464 to the winner...

Why?...

The racecard holds all the clues, as is often the case...

Here we have a 2 yr old colt, who heads the Geegeez Speed Ratings and who seems to be getting better with each run.

Beaten by less than three lengths on debut here at Kempton over 7f and then by a neck at Chelmsford over 7f, staying on well both times, he got off the mark at Sandown LTO 29 days ago when stepping up to today's 1m trip for the first time.

As you can see from the above, trainer Andrew Balding's horse's do well here at Kempton, when either ridden by my distant relative Rob Hornby or when they're making a handicap debut.

The race by race improvement, the Speed Rating and those two stats are more than enough (in my opinion) to warrant the bet today, but let's just have a quick/closer look at those two reports before signing off, starting with...

...the trainer/jockey/course combo, which with handicappers sent off sub-10/1 since 2015 are 7 from 19 (36.8% SR) for 32.77pts (+172.5% ROI) profit, including 7 from 15 (46.7%) for 36.77pts (+245.2%) from runners rested for less than eight weeks....

...whilst Andrew Balding's handicap debutants sent off shorter than 5/1 here at Kempton since the start of 2018 are 5 from 9 (55.6% SR) for 9.91pts (+110.1% ROI) profit, including...

  • 3/4 (75%) for 7.21pts (+180.3%) over 7f/1m
  • 3/4 (75%) for 4.29pts (+107.3%) were placed LTO

...steering me towards... a 1pt win bet on Recovery Run @ 5/2 BOG as was available at 8.30am Saturday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 3.10 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!