Stat of the Day, 9th June 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 9th June 2014

Last week was a profitable one, but we were unable to close it out with a win, as Simply A Legend's challenge faded late on.

He'd been held up for a run and started to make headway from 4 out, but didn't have the legs to see it out and weakened in the closing stages to finish back in 7th place at 5/1, half a point shorter than our advised odds.

Summer flat racing on a Monday evening generally involves a trip to the banks of the Thames in Berkshire. And so it is again for us with the...

7.20 Windsor:

Where Red Warrior will be aiming for back to back victories, after running out a 25/1 winner at Yarmouth last time out. He closed out last season with two decent placed runs before resting for the winter/spring. He returned from a break of 160 days to defy that 25/1 price tag by running on well to score by almost two lengths.

The form of that race seems to be working out well, with six of the horses from that contest going on to win since and the third placed horse has been beaten by a short head in a Group 3 contest and by a length in Listed company, so if the form holds out and Red Warrior comes on as expected for having had that run, there's no reason why he can't go in again.

In fact, over the last four years 136 of 938 horses have won their next race after winning at odds of 25/1 or higher last time when turned back out at either the same class or up one grade.

This 14.5% strike rate has yielded a level stake profit of 66pts and whilst a return of 7.04% isn't spectacular, it's not bad from so many bets in a short space of time.

Now I'm not keen on backing so many runners from one stat, so I do like to filter some runners out and a quick look at the odds offered for the follow-up win speak for themselves, as it seems the market has the key to future success.

When these big-priced winners were priced at 8/1 or shorter next time out, they were successful in 112 of 512 (21.9% SR) races, which in turn produced level stakes profits of some 115.4pts, an ROI of 22.5% which is far more palatable for SotD purposes.

If we then ruled out those runners priced below 5/2, as we rarely venture into territory for this feature, we end up with a slightly lower strike rate, as you'd expect by ruling out the shorties, but we do have a better profit figure and resultant ROI. In fact we arrive at a 20.1% strike rate (91/452) for 123.6pts (+27.33% ROI).

This gives us plenty if optimism about Red Warrior's follow-up chances, as does the fact he's trained by Ismail Mohammed, whose horses have been in sensational form over the last 18 months, winning 28 of 134 (20.9% SR) races for profits of 43.9pts (+32.77% ROI).

The vast bulk of his success comes in handicap contests where his record of 25 wins from 83 (30.1% SR) is exceptional, as are the resultant 78.2pts (+94.2% ROI), not bad at all from blind backing.

With runners priced at 12/1 or shorter, he's 23 from 72 (31.9% SR) for 56.4pts (+78.4% ROI), whilst his runners at 8/1 or shorter have won 21 of 62 races (33.9% SR) for 43 pts (+69.3% ROI).

In short, Ismail Mohammed is a trainer to follow, until the markets get wise to him and as Red Warrior is his only runner of the day, he becomes the selection almost by default, but the supplementary stat backs him up, as does his own form and that of the race he won last time out.

I'd expect a further improvement today and although I can currently 6/1 BOG for our selection, I'm sticking with my recent win-only strategy that has served us well of late. Therefore, the play is a 1pt win bet on Red Warrior at 6/1 BOG. That price is with PP, but you can check all the other available prices, when you... here for the latest betting on the 7.20 Windsor

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Double Dutch, 21st September 2013

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 21st September 2013

Not for the first time, and for the second successive day, we bombed out in race 1, but had the 1-2 in race 2. This time, neither of the two marktet leaders, Diplomat and Shamar, even made the frame despite SPs of 6/5 and 9/4 respectively.

This, of course, meant that whilst we got the first two home in race 2, both at significantly lower odds than we'd advised, it was another disappointing day. There was, however, a little light relief for those of you doing the forecasts/exactas, as a £1 Exacta paid £9.50, which isn't bad considering the SPs were 7/4 & 9/4.

Yesterday's results were as follows:

Diplomat : 4th
Shamar : 5th
Horsted Keynes : won at 11/4 (SP 7/4)
Invisible Hunter : 2nd at 3/1 (SP 9/4)

Trial to date:

Your first 30 days for just £1

14 winning selections from 59 = 23.73%
2 winning doubles in 16 days

Stakes: 31pts
Returns: 11.66pts

P/L : -19.34pts (-62.39% ROI)

It's all well and good me saying that we're not a million miles away from having a decent crack at this, but unfortunately results have been poor and I need a better outcome from today's races which start with the...

3.55 Catterick:

A handicap mark of 82 allotted to a runner in an ordinary maiden suggests that Red Warrior should be taking this quite easily: last year's winner had an OR of 70. He has already beaten a couple of today's rivals in the process of finishing just a length and a half behind the winner at Newcastle last time out.

I expect him to handle the drop in trip today and he'll probably keep himself towards the head of affairs and the 6/4 price tag is probably about right.

The main danger is likely to come from lightly-raced Dawn Calling, who acquitted himself well enough to finish third on debut at Ripon (beaten by 10l), before repeating that placing at Kempton last time out. He's a £100k Shamardal half-brother to 9.5f/1¼m winner Chatterer and he's expected to show further improvement today at odds of 13/8.


7.20 Wolverhampton:

The winner from this race should come from the first three in the market. Song of Rowland is quite rightly favourite at 6/4 and really should be taking this one. This is a Class 6 race and he has a Class 4 win under his belt just three starts ago and has run at 3 and 2 since, so this is a major step down for him today. The only slight worry is whether he takes to the surface, which might open the door for...

...either Kodafine or Hickster. Kodafine has some ability at this level, but suffers from real temperament issues. So much so, that she reared at the start at Lingfield last time out and put jockey Richard Hughes on the floor: Mr Hughes has now jumped ship onto the favourite! The concerns about that filly's attitude will unfortunately override the undoubted ability she possesses, so I'll give her a wide berth and go with Hickster at 5/1.

Hickster was sparked into life with the application of a visor last time out at Kempton at double-digit odds behind Morally Bankrupt, who has since stepped up in class and won again. If the visor repeats its effectiveness and Hickster runs to his best, he could push this favourite all the way.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Red Warrior/ Song of Rowland @ 5.95 with BetVictor and/or Hills
Red Warrior / Hickster @ 15.00 with BetVictor and/or BoyleSports
Dawn Calling / Song of Rowland @ 6.25 with Hills
Dawn Calling / Hickster @ 15.78 with Stan James