Posts

Early Season Turf Pointers

April trainers

With Cheltenham now a fading speck on the horizon our next scheduled stop is the cavalry charge of the Lincoln in only a few days time, writes Jon Shenton. The shackles of winter are off (hopefully), Spring has sprung, and the flat turf season is well and truly on the way.

It’s without doubt my favourite time of year, certainly in terms of the racing calendar. The promise of the long, warm summer nights and a plethora of punting challenges stokes the fires like no other.

Conventional wisdom is that bettors should tread very carefully in the opening few weeks of the season whilst form-lines are built. Whilst that might be true to an extent if you’re a pure race reader it is certainly of less relevance to the data driven approach that I primarily use.

Horses having long absences, an array of new talent on show and highly variable underfoot conditions all contribute to devilishly difficult puzzles. Data can be your friend and ally under these circumstances and it can give you an edge on the general population.

A sensible point to start would be evaluating trainer angles for April performance.

The below table shows the April numbers, sorted by A/E and only including the usual SP of 20/1 or shorter animals. All races since 2012 are analysed.

 

One can clearly delve into any of these further. It’s certainly of interest that the highly populated Fahey yard is profitable over a high volume of runners. The same applies to Gosden, O’Meara, Appleby (Charlie), Haggas and Beckett. If they’re delivering runners to the track in April, then these data give a degree of confidence that they are likely to be competitive.

In pole position, however, is the veteran trainer Mick Easterby. He will be 88 years-old at the end of this month! If at a similar age I’m lucky enough to be around, I’d be hugely disappointed to be still working (understatement!) so it surely shows the enthusiasm he has for the game. Those rich experiences over the years certainly seem to have been put to good use in getting the yard's runners blasting out of the stalls early.

The April output is impressive with an A/E of 1.61, a nice strike rate (19%) and an ROI of 41% is more than welcome.

Evaluating performance against SP there is no winner at 18/1 or 20/1 from 26 attempts so from an angle point of view I’m going to exclude those personally. I do realise entirely that this may be folly, mathematically you’d only expect 1-ish winner from 26 attempts at those odds. But given the number of angles I operate and the relatively high number of daily bets I’m always happy to be more selective and potentially leave a winner or two on the bench.

Taking the 16/1 (SP) or shorter only it leaves 129 runs, of which 123 are in handicaps of some description. The remaining half-dozen non-handicappers have failed to register a single win. It’s clearly a yard focussed more on handicap racing so I’m happy to trim the angle accordingly again.

I also want to understand if April performance is uncharacteristically positive against the rest of the year. It could be that the basis of this angle applies to other months.

The graph below effectively puts the notion of strong other periods of the year to bed. It overwhelmingly illustrates the peak month for Easterby is April, with spikes in both win and placed rates in the month. It’s generally downhill from there as the season progresses.

 

Finally, to understand the consistency of the potential angle, a check of performance by year is helpful. Doing so we get the following split:

 

29 wins from 123 runs, 1.79 A/E with a 78% ROI. That’ll do for me. With no fallow year since 2014 this goes into my active angles as one to follow. Ordinarily these should go through a bit of testing before committing, but where’s the fun in that? I’ll be live with this in April, trying to get early prices. A high volume, small stakes approach mitigates the risk to some degree and enhances the entertainment value exponentially!

Back Mick Easterby in April handicaps at 16/1 or less on turf

Your first 30 days for just £1

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Working down the list sequentially, the second-best performer in terms of A/E is John Quinn. The Yorkshire stable is a powerhouse of racing in the North. Around two thirds of his April runs are on relatively local Yorkshire tracks.
Starting with the April performance vs. rest of year this time we have the following by win strike rate:

 

On the chart I have marked the April data point with a red circle. Like Mick Easterby, it is clearly a landmark month for the stable.

A point of note, the March number is only representative of a handful of runners (15), and the same applies to November’s apparently phenomenal peak (17) so it’s easy ignore these months given the paucity of data.

Also, like the Easterby angle there is no winner at 18/1 to 20/1 so a small snip to the criteria to only take account of SP’s 16/1 or shorter is my personal choice. Looking at the annual performance there are two poor yyear, 2013 and 2014, which weirdly are also the same as Easterby. It might be that those were particularly cold or wet springs, leaving the horses a little short in their work, though that is no more than conjecture.

 

 

I’ve poked around looking for other trends or items of note with these data. In truth though, nothing stands out and there is usually little point in forcing it, such efforts usually leading to at least a degree of backfitting. Simple is best.

Back John Quinn runners at 16/1 or less on turf in April

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Maiden & Novices

The onset of a new season means an absolute battalion of untried, untested and unraced 2YO’s will all hit the track for the first time. Like a lot of readers I don’t generally play in this type of race. Paddock judging is out personally, aside from worldly insight such as “that’s a big horse” and “that one looks a bit fired up” I have nothing to offer in this field, though I very much respect those who can read the confirmation, maturity and fitness of these babies. I have limited sources (i.e. none) of yard and course chat so the only thing in my armoury is my old mate, data.

From 2012 to date there have been no less than 14,911 horses making their racetrack debuts on turf as two-year olds in maiden or novice races. Changes to the novice programme in 2017 do make individual analyses on Maidens or Novice races more difficult on a like for like basis which is the reason that I’ve compiled them together.

This time I’m going to evaluate yards with a high number of runners, searching for the good and the not so good. The relatively massive table below shows first time out trainer performance in maiden and novices from 2012 onwards. I have elected to leave an SP filter out of the equation for this data set. The logic behind that is with debutants you could argue that the market is more likely to get it wrong and big priced winners could be more prevalent. This may or may not be true but that is the rationale for leaving the data as “pure” as possible.

 

As you might expect, there are some wild variations in performance. Firstly, the ones to potentially avoid, out at least around which to be wary.

Messrs Bell, Stoute and Easterby (Tim not Mick!) have a quite frankly appalling record under these conditions. In fact, the volume of combined winners is of such paucity that I can add it up confidently in my head without consulting any technology.

41 wins from 743 runners (I did have to check the runner number with a calculator). A strike rate of just 5.6%, with a combined loss of about 46% in terms of ROI. Good luck with that!

Of course, we know that SMS famously nurtures his charges along at a careful pace, so it makes complete sense for him to be here. The others are possibly more surprising. Geegeez Gold is of huge assistance in alerting you to these red flags on the trainer icon on the racecard, showing FTO performance of that trainer for the last two years.

Back to the macro-level data in the table relating to the last 6 years. The only trainers eking out a profit in the list are John Gosden and Andrew Balding. Gosden has the most impressive strike rate, 18.6%, on the table too. I must confess, I did find this a tad surprising so with a degree of curiosity I investigated it further.

Zooming in on monthly performance is logical in my mind. The early season calendar is rife with sprints. Short distance blasts are not something you’d ordinarily associate Johnny G with so might expect performance to be less positive early in the season in maidens/novices;

Sure enough, volume of runners, strike rate and ROI all improve as we  move into and through through the hot summer (ha ha). Indeed, Too Darn Hot (August), Cracksman (October) and Coronet (September) all prevailed on their debut run in recent years.

In general terms you might think that Gosden’s strong hand of 2YO’s will be focussed towards the future, and specifically their 3YO campaigns. In fact, it’s quite common that he waits until his charges are three before giving them their first run: La Ti Dar is perhaps the best recent case in point.

To be honest, despite knowing all this there is not enough here to generate a sufficiently strong angle for me. I have evaluated race class, sex of horse and a number of other variables but there is nothing of huge significance. That said, I’d always be very mindful of a Gosden debutant once we get beyond the summer solstice and maybe play on that basis, but it’s certainly not for me in terms of a discreet “system” to run with.

Given the sheer heft of runners (633) and the worthy A/E attainment (0.99) it would be slightly remiss not to comment on the Fahey operation a bit further. In a similar way to Gosden it’s hard to find a robust angle to recommend although there are some clues and pointers worth drawing out.

Firstly, the earlier in the season the better as the graph illustrates, April and May are very strong in comparison to the rest of the year.

 

There is also interest when evaluating at the SP’s of all the stable's Maiden and Novice runs. The line graph below illustrates the cumulative profit or loss position by SP. In basic terms it shows that it is most profitable if Fahey’s first time out animals have been backed to 4/1 or shorter. Virtually every banding bigger than that is loss making.

 

Backing all 4/1 or shorter runners would result in a £26 profit to a £1 level stake (represented by the green arrow on the graph), whereas backing all 9/2 or greater would return a £97 loss (red arrow on the graph). We know two things about Fahey Maiden and Novice performance. Firstly, April and May performance is good. Secondly, horses at 4/1 or shorter are profitable. So, if we take April/May runners at 4/1 or shorter at SP I’d be optimistic we’ll find a reasonable angle. The table below gives us our answer:

There we have it. A small number of prospective bets, and at 4/1 or shorter it should be relatively low risk if unspectacular. It’s not really my sort of usual angle or bet (I tend to favour Hollywood odds long shots) but if you are inclined to have a bet in a maiden and novice race a short priced backed Fahey charge in the spring wouldn't be a bad place to start.

Back Richard Fahey First time out horses at 4/1 or shorter in Maiden/Novice races in April and May

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I hope in the above I've offered a few potential pointers for success at the start of the British flat turf season. Do feel free to play around with Query Tool on some of the other names in the big tables, and leave a comment if you find anything of note.

- Jon Shenton

Stat of the Day, 19th October 2018

Thursday's Pick was...

4.40 Brighton : Arcanista @ 13/2 BOG 5th at 6/1 (Mid-division, headway over 1f out, chased leaders approaching final furlong, never able to challenge)

Friday's pick runs in the...

5.15 Haydock :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Lightning Attack @ 6/1 or 11/2 BOG  

...in a 14-runner, Class 5 Flat Nursery for 2yo over 7f on Heavy ground worth £4787 to the winner...  

Why?

Two runs on soft/heavy so far for this 2 yr old gelding have resulted in him making the frame on both occasions, so he shouldn't be unduly worried by the conditions here today. The step up from 6f to 7f has looked like one he needed to make, whilst crucially those two placed finished I just mentioned were both at Class 2 and this is a Class 5 contest!

The drop in class, the extra furlong and his aptitude with cut in the ground suggested to me that he might well have been overpriced, although the market hasn't yet agreed with me, perhaps he's the right price after all?

The booking of David Nolan for the ride is a positive to me, because he's had a good season here in the North West , winning 5 of 17 races at Haydock (29.4% SR) generating level stakes profits of 23.5pts (+138.3% ROI), all on male runners and including...

  • 4/16 (25%) for 22.34pts (+139.6%) in handicaps
  • no run on heavy, but 2/7 (28.6%) for 13.2pts (+188.5%) on soft
  • 2/3 (66.6%) for 11.1pts (+369.8%) over this 7f course and distance
  • and 1 from 1 for 1.17pts on a 2 yr old.

David also has a decent record on Richard Fahey horses, a record that improves dramatically based on today's race conditions, which I'll now attempt to highlight. We'll start with the Fahey/Nolan record since 2012 which stands at 70 from 559 (12.5% SR) for 125.8pts (+22.5% ROI) : a more than acceptable strike rate and an excellent return from blind backing gives us a good starting point to be more specific, as these 559 runners include...

  • over trips of 5 to 10 furlongs : 64/468 (13.7%) for 176.4pts (+37.7%)
  • at odds of 4/1 to 10/1 : 35/231 (15.2%) for 62.3pts (+27%)
  • 2yr olds are 21/191 (11%) for 150.8pts (+79%)
  • at Class 5 : 25/190 (13.2%) for 86.5pts (+45.5%)
  • and over the last 12 months : 13/55 (23.6%) for 35.1pts (+63.8%)

And using distance / odds / age / class / dates to define the selections then leads me back to one of my stored micro systems that I'm happy to share with you today, namely...

...Fahey + Nolan + 2 to 4 yr olds + Class 4 to 6 + 5f to 1m2f + 4/1 to 10/1 + 2015 to 2018 = 21/92 (22.8% SR) for 81.8pts (+89% ROI), which in terms of today's contest gives us...

  • males at 18/68 (26.5%) for 75pts (+110.3%)
  • over 6/7 furlongs : 16/59 (27.1%) for 80.65pts (+136.7%)
  • in handicaps : 12/46 (26.1%) for 53.9pts (+117.2%)
  • at 4/1 to 6/1 : 15/42 (35.7%) for 57.2pts (+136.2%) today's only variable parameter
  • over 7 furlongs : 9/29 (31%) for 42.6pts (+146.8%)
  • in October : 3/11 (27.3%) for 18.3pts (+166.4%)
  • and in Nursery races : 2/10 (20%) for 9.81pts (+98.1%)

...pointing to... a 1pt win bet on Lightning Attack @ 6/1 or 11/2 BOG, as offered by Bet365 & SkyBet respectively at 5.40pm on Thursday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.15 Haydock

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 7th July 2018

Friday's Pick was...

3.30 Sandown : Euginio @ 11/4 BOG 4th at 7/4 (Tracked leader, pushed along 3f out, lost 2nd over 1f out, chased leaders, held when not much room and no extra towards finish, beaten by less than a length)

Saturday's pick goes in the...

8.10 Nottingham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Ventura Gold @ 4/1 BOG

In a 7-runner Class 5 Flat Handicap for 3yo over 1m2½f on Good To Firm ground worth £3881 to the winner...

Why?

This 3yr old gelding has won two of his last six runs and his sole turf success came two starts ago in another small field Class 5 handicap on good to firm ground, so conditions won't be alien to him.

Despite not managing to land SotD's 4th winner on the bounce yesterday, I've no hesitation is trusting Silvestre de Sousa with the reins again today. I mentioned yesterday that he was riding well and although he couldn't get Euginio up for us, he did have two more winners on the day.

Like Sandown, Nottingham has been another good venue for this jockey in recent years, where he has won 30 of 158 races (19% SR) for 36.7pts (+23.2% ROI) profit since the start of the 2014 season and with today's race in mind, that record includes...

  • in fields of 5-11 runners : 27/115 (23.5%) for 36.4pts (+31.6%)
  • in handicaps : 18/107 (16.8%) for 16.3pts (+15.2%)
  • at Class 5 : 16/86 (18.6%) for 4.6pts (+5.3%)
  • on Good to Firm ground : 10/56 (17.9%) for 6.8pts (+12.2%)
  • and over trips of 10/10.5f : 7/27 (25.9%) for 37.6pts (+139.3%)

Now, although he doesn't get to ride for today's trainer Richard Fahey too often, it's certainly not because he doesn't win on that yard's horses. In fact he is 4 from 11 (36.4%) for 12.56pts (+114.2%) on them since the start of last season with a 4/6 (66.6%) record in handicaps that has produced 17.56pts profit at an ROI of 292.7%!

And finally, we really should consider Mr Fahey's own recent record at this venue and I'm happy to report that it's also very good with 28 winners from 150 since the start of the 2014 season.

This 18.7% strike rate has rewarded followers with profits of 50.7pts at a healthy ROI of 33.8% with his handicappers winning 19 of 104 (18.3%) for 47.4pts (+45.5%) and it is these 104 'cappers I want to focus on, because under today's conditions, they are...

  • 15/68 (22.1%) for 55pts (+80.8%) in fields of 5-11 runners
  • 10/52 (19.2%) for 42pts (+80.7%) as 3 yr olds
  • 6/44 (13.6%) for 37.5pts (+85.3%) when beaten by 5 to 30 lengths LTO
  • 7/33 (21.2%) for 24.5pts (+74.1%) in 3yo races
  • 7/30 (23.3%) for 36.2pts (+120.5%) racing 6-15 days after their last run
  • and 9/24 (37.5%) for 14.7pts (+61.4%) when sent off at odds of 2/1 to 9/2

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Ventura Gold @ 4/1 BOGwhich was available from BetVictor & SkyBet at 7.10pm on Friday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 8.10 Nottingham

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 9th October 2017

Saturday's Result :

5.35 Newmarket : Cribbs Causeway @ 9/4 BOG WON at 5/2 : Close up, led over 2f out, rider dropped whip over 1f out, but still pushed her out to win by a length...

Monday's selection goes in the...

2.55 Pontefract :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Who?

Heatongrad @ 10/3 BOG

Why?

A Class 3 handicap over a mile for three year olds on soft ground is the setting for today's pick and our three year old is a gelding who has won three of his last five starts, all of which have been at trips of 8 to 9 furlongs.

Amongst the three wins are a couple under today's jockey Tony Hamilton, and wins on both soft and heavy ground, so stamina shouldn't be an issue. He has also won at this grade, when scoring comfortably by nine lengths last time out, just eight days ago.

His trainer, Richard Fahey does well enough around these parts, as demonstrated by 81 winners from 455 (17.8% SR) for 147.4pts (+32.4% ROI) of level stakes profits over the last nine seasons, including of relevance today...

  • 66/331 (19.9%) for 178.5pts (+53.9%) over trips of five to eight furlongs
  • 35/190 (18.4%) for 51.5pts (+27.1%) with less than three weeks rest since their last run
  • 24/121 (19.8%) for 39.1pts (+32.3%) ridden by Tony Hamilton
  • 16/82 (19.5%) for 30.1pts (+36.7%) at Class 3
  • and 13 from 51 (25.5%) for 24.6pts (+48.2%) from those who won last time out

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Heatongrad @ 10/3 BOG, which was offered by Betfair, BetVictor, Paddy Power & Sunbets at 6.15pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.55 Pontefract

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 9th October 2017

Saturday's Result :

5.35 Newmarket : Cribbs Causeway @ 9/4 BOG WON at 5/2 : Close up, led over 2f out, rider dropped whip over 1f out, but still pushed her out to win by a length...

Monday's selection goes in the...

2.55 Pontefract :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Heatongrad @ 10/3 BOG

Why?

A Class 3 handicap over a mile for three year olds on soft ground is the setting for today's pick and our three year old is a gelding who has won three of his last five starts, all of which have been at trips of 8 to 9 furlongs.

Amongst the three wins are a couple under today's jockey Tony Hamilton, and wins on both soft and heavy ground, so stamina shouldn't be an issue. He has also won at this grade, when scoring comfortably by nine lengths last time out, just eight days ago.

His trainer, Richard Fahey does well enough around these parts, as demonstrated by 81 winners from 455 (17.8% SR) for 147.4pts (+32.4% ROI) of level stakes profits over the last nine seasons, including of relevance today...

  • 66/331 (19.9%) for 178.5pts (+53.9%) over trips of five to eight furlongs
  • 35/190 (18.4%) for 51.5pts (+27.1%) with less than three weeks rest since their last run
  • 24/121 (19.8%) for 39.1pts (+32.3%) ridden by Tony Hamilton
  • 16/82 (19.5%) for 30.1pts (+36.7%) at Class 3
  • and 13 from 51 (25.5%) for 24.6pts (+48.2%) from those who won last time out

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Heatongrad @ 10/3 BOG, which was offered by Betfair, BetVictor, Paddy Power & Sunbets at 6.15pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.55 Pontefract

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 16th September 2017

Friday's Result :

1.20 Doncaster : Aqabah @ 10/3 BOG 3rd at 7/2 : With leader, effort 2f out, ridden and one pace over 1f out, no impression with winner when lost 2nd inside final furlong...

Saturday's pick goes in the...

3.15 Chester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Dan Troop @ 7/2 BOG

Why?

This 3yr old gelding gets a handy 4lb weight for age allowance here and arrives at the Roodee in great form, having finished 1121 in his last four outings, including a win over course and distance last time out.

The jockey from that day, Connor Murtagh, now rides him for a second time and was able to take 3lbs off a mark of 77 for that win seven weeks ago. Today he takes 7lbs off 90 and with 4lb allowance (W4A), they should still be competitive.

Dan Troop is currently 3 from 6 on the Flat, including...

  • 3/5 at 7/7.5 furlongs , 3/4 this year, 3/4 after a rest of three weeks or longer
  • 3/3 at odds of 9/4 to 9/2, 2/3 in handicaps, 2/3 going left handed
  • 1/1 at Class 3, 1/1 here at Chester, 1/1 over course and distance
  • 1/1 on Soft ground and 1/1 under Connor Murtagh.

Also...trainer Richard Fahey's handicappers at 7/1 and shorter with CD next to their name who also won LTO (anywhere) are 19/77 (24.7% SR) for 10.4pts (+13.5% ROI) over the last 5 seasons, of which...

  • those running over the same course and distance as LTO : 16/65 (24.6%) for 13.12pts (+20.2%)
  • males are 13/52 (25%) for 16.6pts (+31.9%)
  • those racing over trips of 7 to 8.5 furlongs are 10/32 (31.25%) for 9.73pts (+30.4%)

AND...males racing at trips of 7 to 8.5 furlongs over the same course and distance as LTO = 5/18 (27.8% SR) for 7pts (+39% ROI)

Finally, Connor Murtagh is 3 from 9 (33.3% SR) for 16.85pts (+187.2% ROI) when sent off at 10/1 or shorter on the back of a Richard Fahey handicapper here at Chester.

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Dan Troop @ 7/2 BOG, which was offered by Bet365 , Betfred, SkyBet & Totesport at 7.25pm on Friday. For what it's worth, I'm on with Bet365, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.15 Chester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 24th July 2017

Saturday's Result :

1.50 Newbury : Remarkable @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 11/4 Held up in touch, pushed along and headway chasing leaders 3f out, went 2nd inside final 2f, ridden and every chance throughout final furlong, soon edged right, no extra close home, beaten by a neck.

Monday's pick goes in the...

7.55 Beverley...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Navarone @ 7/2 BOG

Why?

Well, simply Trainer/Jockey/Track combo when the money is down which numerically looks like... Richard Fahey / Tony Hamilton / Beverley / 11-10 to 11-2 / 2014-17 = 16/41 (39% SR) for 29.06pts (+70.9% ROI).

And with this race in mind, those 41 runners include...

  • 1-30 days since last run : 9/22 (40.9%) for 18.6pts (+84.6%)
  • males are 8/21 (38.1%) for 17.65pts (+84%)
  • handicappers are 8/17 (47.1%) for 20.52pts (+120.7%)
  • over this 7.5f trip : 8/15 (533%) for 17.6pts (+117.4%)
  • 3 yr olds are 6/15 (40%) for 11.32pts (+75.5%)
  • in 3yo+ races : 3/8 937.5%) for 6.35pts (+79.4%)
  • and at Class 4 : 2/4 (50%) for 7.87pts (+196.8%)

They now team up with a 3 yr old gelding getting a nice 7lbs weight for age allowance as a 3yr old in an open age handicap, who is already 1 from 1 over course and distance, having won here two starts ago. He stepped up in class and dropped in trip for his latest run and was outpaced late on, finishing as a runner-up beaten by half a length.

The fourth placed horse that day was a further 2.25lengths behind, but has subsequently reappeared and won, so if the form holds out, I expect another good effort from our boy, who now steps back up to this trip and drops down a grade, making him of further statistical interest to me, because...

...2012-17 / Flat / class 1 to 4 / 5.5 to 8 furlongs / 3yr olds / winner 2 starts ago / 2nd LTO 1-30 days ago = 79/319 (24.8% SR) for 180.8pts (+56.7% ROI) with those dropping down 1 class winning 14 of 35 (40%) for 29.2pts (+83.4%)

...thus quantifying...a 1pt win bet on Navarone @ 7/2 BOG which was widely available at 5.50pm on Sunday with some 4/1 BOG on offer at Coral for those who are able to take advantage! To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.55 Beverley...

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 24th July 2017

Saturday's Result :

1.50 Newbury : Remarkable @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 11/4 Held up in touch, pushed along and headway chasing leaders 3f out, went 2nd inside final 2f, ridden and every chance throughout final furlong, soon edged right, no extra close home, beaten by a neck.

Monday's pick goes in the...

7.55 Beverley...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Navarone @ 7/2 BOG

Why?

Well, simply Trainer/Jockey/Track combo when the money is down which numerically looks like... Richard Fahey / Tony Hamilton / Beverley / 11-10 to 11-2 / 2014-17 = 16/41 (39% SR) for 29.06pts (+70.9% ROI).

And with this race in mind, those 41 runners include...

  • 1-30 days since last run : 9/22 (40.9%) for 18.6pts (+84.6%)
  • males are 8/21 (38.1%) for 17.65pts (+84%)
  • handicappers are 8/17 (47.1%) for 20.52pts (+120.7%)
  • over this 7.5f trip : 8/15 (533%) for 17.6pts (+117.4%)
  • 3 yr olds are 6/15 (40%) for 11.32pts (+75.5%)
  • in 3yo+ races : 3/8 937.5%) for 6.35pts (+79.4%)
  • and at Class 4 : 2/4 (50%) for 7.87pts (+196.8%)

They now team up with a 3 yr old gelding getting a nice 7lbs weight for age allowance as a 3yr old in an open age handicap, who is already 1 from 1 over course and distance, having won here two starts ago. He stepped up in class and dropped in trip for his latest run and was outpaced late on, finishing as a runner-up beaten by half a length.

The fourth placed horse that day was a further 2.25lengths behind, but has subsequently reappeared and won, so if the form holds out, I expect another good effort from our boy, who now steps back up to this trip and drops down a grade, making him of further statistical interest to me, because...

...2012-17 / Flat / class 1 to 4 / 5.5 to 8 furlongs / 3yr olds / winner 2 starts ago / 2nd LTO 1-30 days ago = 79/319 (24.8% SR) for 180.8pts (+56.7% ROI) with those dropping down 1 class winning 14 of 35 (40%) for 29.2pts (+83.4%)

...thus quantifying...a 1pt win bet on Navarone @ 7/2 BOG which was widely available at 5.50pm on Sunday with some 4/1 BOG on offer at Coral for those who are able to take advantage! To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.55 Beverley...

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 3rd July 2017

Saturday's Result :

3.05 York : Defoe @ 9/4 BOG WON at 5/2 Held up towards rear, headway far side of group over 3f out, chased leaders over 2f out, ridden to lead inside final furlong, stayed on to win by half a length.

Monday's pick goes in the...

2.00 Pontefract...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Who?

Boundsy @ 7/2 BOG

Why?

A 3 yr old gelding in a 5f sprint handicap getting a more than useful 5lb weight for age (WFA) allowance is the icing on top of the main SotD cake before looking at his trainer, Richard Fahey whose record here at "Ponty" stands at 74/406 (18.2% SR) for 144.3pts (35.5% ROI) over the last 9 seasons, but to show I'm not relying on some old data, I'm just going to focus on his record since 2013 ie approx 4.5 seasons.

In this time, his runners are 46/233 (19.7% SR) for 101pts (+43.3% ROI), from which...

  • those priced in the broad 10/11 to 11/1 spectrum are 45/187 (24.1%) for 70.9pts (+37.9%)
  • those who have raced in the last 7 weeks are 32/165 (19.4%) for 19.2pts (+11.7%)
  • in the June-August mid season period : 21/107 (19.6%) for 92.6pts (+86.6%)
  • on Good ground : 18/101 (17.8%) for 60.1pts (+59.5%)
  • Class 5 : 16/87 (18.4%) for 71.6pts (+82.3%)
  • those with a top 3 finish LTO : 24/83 (28.9%) for 51pts (+61.4%)
  • those beaten by 3 lengths or less LTO are 14/52 (26.9%) for 31.7pts (+60.9%)
  • those ridden by Paul Hanagan are 9/36 (25%) for 13.6pts (+37.9%)
  • those racing over 5f are 11/35 (31.4%) for 32.8pts (+93.8%)
  • and those placed 2nd LTO are 10/29 (34.5%) for 29.5pts (+101.8%)

And if we're having icing (the WFA) on our cake, we're going to need a cherry too! So the cherry on the icing is the fact that with a Geegeez Speed Rating of 93, he's some 18 clear of his nearest rival and regular forum readers will know that blindly backing our top rated runners at the 5f trip is profitable. Those who didn't know that, really need to subscribe to this thread.

...all of which gives us...a 1pt win bet on Boundsy @ 7/2 BOG which was widely available at 7.05pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.00 Pontefract...

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 3rd July 2017

Saturday's Result :

3.05 York : Defoe @ 9/4 BOG WON at 5/2 Held up towards rear, headway far side of group over 3f out, chased leaders over 2f out, ridden to lead inside final furlong, stayed on to win by half a length.

Monday's pick goes in the...

2.00 Pontefract...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Boundsy @ 7/2 BOG

Why?

A 3 yr old gelding in a 5f sprint handicap getting a more than useful 5lb weight for age (WFA) allowance is the icing on top of the main SotD cake before looking at his trainer, Richard Fahey whose record here at "Ponty" stands at 74/406 (18.2% SR) for 144.3pts (35.5% ROI) over the last 9 seasons, but to show I'm not relying on some old data, I'm just going to focus on his record since 2013 ie approx 4.5 seasons.

In this time, his runners are 46/233 (19.7% SR) for 101pts (+43.3% ROI), from which...

  • those priced in the broad 10/11 to 11/1 spectrum are 45/187 (24.1%) for 70.9pts (+37.9%)
  • those who have raced in the last 7 weeks are 32/165 (19.4%) for 19.2pts (+11.7%)
  • in the June-August mid season period : 21/107 (19.6%) for 92.6pts (+86.6%)
  • on Good ground : 18/101 (17.8%) for 60.1pts (+59.5%)
  • Class 5 : 16/87 (18.4%) for 71.6pts (+82.3%)
  • those with a top 3 finish LTO : 24/83 (28.9%) for 51pts (+61.4%)
  • those beaten by 3 lengths or less LTO are 14/52 (26.9%) for 31.7pts (+60.9%)
  • those ridden by Paul Hanagan are 9/36 (25%) for 13.6pts (+37.9%)
  • those racing over 5f are 11/35 (31.4%) for 32.8pts (+93.8%)
  • and those placed 2nd LTO are 10/29 (34.5%) for 29.5pts (+101.8%)

And if we're having icing (the WFA) on our cake, we're going to need a cherry too! So the cherry on the icing is the fact that with a Geegeez Speed Rating of 93, he's some 18 clear of his nearest rival and regular forum readers will know that blindly backing our top rated runners at the 5f trip is profitable. Those who didn't know that, really need to subscribe to this thread.

...all of which gives us...a 1pt win bet on Boundsy @ 7/2 BOG which was widely available at 7.05pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.00 Pontefract...

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 10th May 2017

Tuesday's Result :

4.00 Ayr : Logi @ 5/1 BOG 3rd at 7/2 Held up behind, headway over 1f out, ridden inside final furlong, kept on towards finish

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

1.50 Chester...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Requinto Dawn3/1 BOG

Why?

A 2 yr old colt, just 40 days into a racing career that saw him win over this trip at Doncaster before narrowly failing to back it up a fortnight later last time out, beaten by three quarters of a length.

We have some excellent writers here at Geegeez and it's rare that any of the races I choose overlap with those writers and I always prefer to avoid reading any other content before making my picks, so I'm not swayed either way. So, after putting up Requinto Dawn at 6.45pm, I then spotted the Andy Newton's TV Trends piece (which is right here) and for those who haven't seen it, you really should as it's very good indeed.

Anyway, as usual , I digress! My point was that I took a look at Andy's piece and I found that of the last 15 winners of this particular race...

  • 15 had had a recent run (ours ran 25 days ago)
  • 14 had a top 3 finish LTO (2nd)
  • 12 were favs finishing 1st or 2nd LTO (11/8 fav)
  • 11 had already won at this 5f trip (won on debut)
  • 4 of the last 11 were also drawn in stall 5.

And to be honest, I felt like Andy had done my job for me! But, as an Irish comedian once said, there's more!

Further reinforcement comes from the fact that trainer Richard Fahey's 2 yr olds are 21/102 (20.6% SR) for 60.25pts (+59.1% ROI) here at Chester over the last seasons, which in respect of today's contest look like this...

  • in non-handicaps : 19/72 (26.4%) for 71.6pts (+99.4%)
  • making a debut today or 2nd,3rd or 4th LTO : 17/63 927%) for 80.5pts (+127.8%)
  • those last seen 11-30 days ago are 14/61 (23%) for 10.4pts (+17%)
  • those carrying 9st 2lbs to 9st 5lbs are 12/44 (27.3%) for 40.5pts (+92.1%)
  • and in May : 6/18 (33.3%) for 27.2pts (+150.9%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Requinto Dawn3/1 BOG which was on offer in over a dozen places at 6.45pm on Tuesday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.50 Chester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Stat of the Day, 26th April 2017

Tuesday's Result :

8.40 Wolverhampton : Tavener @ 7/2 BOG 3rd at 5/1 Led, ridden inside final furlong, kept on and headed towards finish, beaten by half a length

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

2.55 Catterick...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Aimez La Vie7/2 BOG

Why?

This 3 yr old filly finished 4223 in four starts last season in better races than this, including a 2.5 length defeat in a Class 2 handicap last time out. That was at Newmarket behind Island Vision who was subsequently placed third in a Listed contest.

A similar effort three classes lower should surely be enough, but don't just take my word for it, there are (as always!) some numbers to back up my thoughts!

She's trained by Richard Fahey, whose runners here at Catterick are 43/190 (22.6% SR) for 44.8pts (+23.6% ROI) since the start of the 2012 campaign, with the following data of particular relevance today...

  • 2 to 4 yr olds are 37/149 (24.8%) for 49.3pts (+33.1%)
  • those racing over 6 / 7 furlongs are 27/110 (24.5%) for 54.8pts (+49.8%)
  • those priced at 7/4 to 8/1 are 32/104 (30.8%) for 70.3pts (+67.6%)
  • those with 2 to 12 previous career runs are 28/89 (31.5%) for 44.9pts (+50.5%)
  • those with a top 4 finish LTO are 24/82 (29.3%) for 60.9pts (+74.3%)
  • females are 18/69 (26.1%) for 37.9pts (+55%)
  • at Class 5 : 18/68 (26.5%) for 16.2pts (+23.8%)
  • in maidens : 12/48 (25%) for 4.76pts (+9.9%)
  • and in female only races : 5/13 (38.5%) for 8.96pts (+68.9%)

PLUS... backing all Richard Fahey's 2 to 5 yr olds on the Flat (turf) during the month of April has yielded 138 winners from 701 runners (19.7% SR) and 227.8pts (+32.5% ROI) of level stakes profits since the start of the 2009 season, of which...

  • Class 5 runners are 56/262 (21.4%) for 64.4pts (+24.6%)
  • on Good to Firm ground : 47/248 (19%) for 54.7pts (+22.1%)
  • in non-handicap contests : 56/222 (25.2%) for 94.9pts (+42.8%)
  • in maidens : 31/137 (22.6%) for 21.8pts (+15.9%)
  • over the 7f trip : 21/93 (22.6%) for 52.8pts (+56.7%)
  • and in female only races : 13/52 (25%) for 58pts at an ROI of 111.5%

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Aimez La Vie7/2 BOG with any one of the dozen firms quoting the same price at 7.30pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.55 Catterick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Stat of the Day, 26th January 2017

Wednesday's Result :

3.40 Catterick : Herons Heir @ 4/1 BOG WON at 13/2 Held up, headway approaching 5th, led and jumped left from 3 out, clear next, ridden out to win by 6 lengths.

Thursday's pick goes in the...

3.20 Southwell

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Western Presence @ 11/4 BOG

Why?

This 3yr old was a course and distance winner under today's jockey when last seen. That was 16 days ago in a higher grade than today, but the caveat is that it was a seller as opposed to today's handicap contest.

Trainer Richard Fahey and jockey Tony Hamilton don't pair up here on the A/W at Southwell as often as I'd like to to see them, which is a pity as they're 17 from 96 (17.7% SR) for 14.6pts (+15.2% ROI), from which...

  • those who last ran 6-20 days ago are 10/52 (19.2%) for 30.7pts (+59%)
  • 3 yr olds are 8/33 (24.2%) for 28.6pts (+86.7%)
  • over 5/6 furlongs : 8/29 (27.6%) for 29.6pts (+102.1%)

AND...3 yr olds running over 5/6f 6-20 dslr are 3/5 (60% SR) for 28pts (+560%)

Then we should look at another angle, perhaps? So if we take the following criteria : Fahey / handicappers / 2013 onwards / odds of 5-4 to 7-1 / previous C&D winners / LTO (anywhere) winners, we get 17 winners from 66 (25.8% SR) for 14.8pts (+22.4% ROI), including...

  • same C&D as LTO : 16/56 (28.6%) for 22.1pts (+39.5%)
  • 1-25 dslr : 17/50 (34%) for 30.8pts (+61.6%)
  • males are 11/44 (25%) for 18pts (+40.9%)
  • Class 5/6 = 7/21 (33.3%) for 9.5pts (+45.3%)
  • ridden by Tony Hamilton = 8/20 (40%) for 15.1pts (+75.5%)
  • at Class 6 : 3/8 (37.5%) for 5pts (+62.5%)

AND...males at the same C&D as LTO, 1-25 dslr are 11/28 (39.3% SR) for 34pts (+121.3% ROI)

...and...a 1pt win bet on Western Presence @ 11/4 BOG which was widely available at 6.20pm on Wednesday (although bet365 were offering 3/1) and to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.20 Southwell 

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Stat of the Day, 15th November 2016

Monday's Result :

12.50 Musselburgh : Donna's Pride @ 9/2 BOG 2nd at 3/1 (Held up in rear, not fluent 3rd, closed from 5th, led before 3 out, headed when not fluent 2 out, no impression on winner, stayed on same pace)

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

1.55 Lingfield

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Shypen @ 9/2 BOG

Why?

This 3 yr old filly has won three of her last seven outings and two of her last four on the All-Weather, but I'm not surprised about that, considering she's a daughter of Archipenko, but more on that shortly.

With regards to today's contest, Shypen is 3 from 8 when rated 71-80, 3 from 6 over 6f and 2 from 4 going left handed, including a previous win here.

Now back to her father, Archipenko, whose offspring have been remarkably successful so far, winning 107/700 (15.1% SR) for 424.5pts (+59.8% ROI), including...

  • females are 45/248 (18.2%) for 306.7pts (+123.7%)
  • on the A/W : 46/235 (19.6%) for 276.6pts (+117.7%)
  • over 6/7 furlongs : 35/196 (17.9%) for 259.9pts (+132.6%)
  • on Polytrack : 34/167 (20.4%) for 248.1pts (+148.6%)
  • and here at Lingfield : 13/65 (20%) for 32.3pts (+49.7%)

AND...from the above, females on the A/W over 6/7 furlongs are 12/39 (30.8% SR) for 207.3pts (+531.6%), of which Polytrack runners are 8/30 (26.7%) for 168.1pts (+560.3%) with those coming here to Lingfield winning 3 of 9 (33.3%) for 13.2pts (+146.8%).

In additon to those numbers, she'll also have the benefit of course specialist Tony Hamilton in the saddle and Tony has ridden 13 winners from 62 attempts (21% SR) for 55pts (+88.7% ROI) over the last three years, from which he is 10/37 (27%) for 72.7pts (+196.4%) in handicaps and 9/45 (20%) for 13pts (+28.9%) on horses trained by Richard Fahey.

AND...the Hamilton / Fahey / Lingfield AW hcp angle is worth 6/25 (24% SR) for 25.7pts (+102.8% ROI)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Shypen at 9/2 BOG, a price offered at 5.55pm on Monday by both BetVictor and Paddy Power with plenty of 4/1 BOG elsewhere. To see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.55 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Stat of the Day, 29th June 2016

Tuesday's Result :

6.50 Stratford : Pembroke House @ 7/2 BOG 4th at 7/2 (Held up in rear but in touch, headway 3 out, never on terms)

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

3.30 Catterick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Invermere at 4/1 BOG

Why?

This 3 yr old filly has won 2 of her last 4 starts, including her last outing four weeks ago, when she was a winner over this course and distance under today's jockey Tony Hamilton. She did just enough that day to prevail in a tight race and with just a 1lb rise in weight to contend with, that knowledge of the track could prove very beneficial.

Since 2008, Richard Fahey's handicappers who were LTO winners and are now sent back to a venue where they had previously won over track and trip are 36 from 166 (21.7% SR) for level stakes profits of 30.85pts at an ROI of 18.6% and in respect of this particular event, those 166 runners are...

  • 34/139 (24.5%) for 51.1pts (+36.7%) over trips of 6 to 12 furlongs
  • 33/135 (24.4%) for 32.9pts (+24.4%) after a rest of 1 to 4 weeks
  • 10/43 (23.3%) for 14.9pts (+34.7%) as 3 yr olds
  • 8/36 (22.2%) for 9.95pts (+27.7%) from his female runners
  • 13/34 (38.2%) for 27.9pts (+82.1%) ridden by Tony Hamilton
  • and they are 2 from 6 933.3%) for 7.6pts (+126.7%) here at Catterick.

Moreover, Mr Fahey has a decent record at this venue too, especially in Class 2 to 4 handicaps, where his horses are 16/90 (17.8% SR) for 36.3pts (+40.3% ROI) since the start of 2008 and we can break those down as follows...

  • those racing over 6/7f are 11/62 (17.7%) for 19.2pts (+31%)
  • those priced at 8/1 and shorter are 14/54 (25.9%) for 33.7pts (+62.4%)
  • those with 1 to 3 previous career wins are 11/48 (22.9%) for 35.9pts (+74.8%)
  • those with 5-10 previous career runs are 7/22 (31.8%) for 21.2pts (+96.6%)
  • and on Good to Firm ground, they are 4/14 (28.6%) for 30.7pts (+218.9%)

AND...those priced at 8/1 and shorter over 6/7 furlongs with 1-2 previous wns from less than 10 outings are 6/12 (50% SR) for 20.1pts (+167.2% ROI), including Invermere herself when winning over course and distance last time out.

...but for now, the call is a 1pt win bet on Invermere at 4/1 BOG which was on offer pretty much everywhere at 8.05pm, so to see what your preferred bookie is offering...

...click here for the betting on the 3.30 Catterick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...