ROYAL ASCOT – JUNE 21
Corresponding Placepot dividends during the last seven years:
2017: £447.30 (7 favourites: No winners – 4 placed – 3 unplaced)
2016: £298.60 (7 favourites: 2 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced)
2015: £122.50 (6 favourites: 1 winner - 3 placed - 2 unplaced)
2014: £1,376.00 (7 favourites: 3 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)
2013: £63.00 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 3 placed - 1 unplaced)
2012: £1,505.80 (6 favourites: 1 winner - 1 placed - 4 unplaced)
2011: £209.20 (7 favourites: 3 winners & 4 unplaced)
Average Placepot dividend: £574.63
46 favourites - 12 winners - 14 placed - 20 unplaced
Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:
Race 1: 25.3% units went through – 14/1 – 13/2** - 8/1 (13/2**)
Race 2: 66.2% of the remaining units when through – 9/2 & 10/3*
Race 3: 50.7% of the remaining units went through – 9/1 – 2/1* - 6/1
Race 4: 79.1% of the remaining units went through – 5/1 – 5/6* - 33/1
Race 5: 8.8% of the remaining units went through – 25/1 – 16/1 – 14/1 – 25/1 (11/2)
Race 6: 27.6% of the units secured the dividend – 7/1 – 8/1 – 20/1 – 14/1 (4/1)
Thursday's Placepot permutation at Royal Ascot:
Leg 1 (2.30): 8 (The Paddocks), 10 (Shang Shang Shang) & 7 (Rumble Inthejungle)
Leg 2 (3.05): 15 (Wadilsafa), 5 (Key Victory) & 16 (Zaaki)
Leg 3 (3.40): 10 (Sun Maiden), 6 (Magic Wand) & 4 (Highgarden)
Leg 4 (4.20): 9 (Stradivarius) & 6 (Vazirabad)
Leg 5 (5.00): 8 (James Cook), 16 (Curiosity), 24 (Sam Gold) & 12 (Moqarrar)
Leg 6 (5.35): 4 (Comminique) & 16 (Corgi)
Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes
2.30: Two outsiders grab my attention first and foremost this year, namely THE PADDOCKS (16/1) and RUMBLE INTHEJUGLE (14/1) who both look overpriced in what might prove to be a sub-standard renewal of the Norfolk Stakes. Richard Hannon was waxing lyrical about his first named raider back in the spring and unlike a lot of his two-year-old stable companions, THE PADDOCKS did not need a ‘prep run’ before scoring at Newbury at the first time of asking. SHANG SHANG SHANG was reportedly the pick of Wesley Ward’s juvenile representatives before the week began and 4/1 about the projected favourite is now available. I can understand punters latching onto that price, which is in the offing given the disappointing performances of fellow inmates this week.
Favourite factor: 12 of the 23 favourites during the last 20 years claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include just four winners. However, 11 of the last 18 market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science - statistics include four winners and five market leaders which finished second).
3.05: Sir Michael Stoute has won two of the last seven renewals is which the yard has been represented and with Michael’s last four runners all having won, the 16/1 quotes by Paddy Power, Betfair and BetVictor about stable contender ZAAKI might not last long this morning. More logical winners include the likes of WADILSAFA and KEY VICTORY from my viewpoint.
Favourite factor: Seven favourites has won via eighteen renewals, though the first market leader was withdrawn before a new market was able to be formed back in 2000. All the other market leaders (bar two--aside from the winners) have finished out with the washing.
Record of the course winner in the ‘Hampton Court’:
1/1—Fahjjaj (good to soft)
3.40: Irish trainers have snared five of the last seven renewals of the 'Ribblesdale' and MAGIC WAND would appear to have as a good a chance as any this time around. SUN MAIDEN looks a typical Sir Michael Soute raider and having won with all three runners on Wednesday (233/1 treble), SUN MAIDEN looks sure to attract support. HIGHGARDEN might reward each way/Placepot investors at 20/1 in a place this morning if that is the way you want to play the race. Wild Illiusion will be a popular order and though I rarely desert Charlie Appleby runners in this type of event (particularly from a Placepot angle), I’m not at all sure that the projected favourite offers value for money.
Favourite factor: Just three clear winning favourites has been recorded since 1998, ’recent’ scorers having also been recorded at 25/1—22/1—14/1—12/1—10/1--10/1 & 9/1. That said, 16 of the 23 market leaders have claimed Placepot positions in the process.
4.20: Aidan O’Brien has saddled seven of the last twelve winners of the Gold Cup whilst on two of the other five occasions, an 8/1 chance (Age Of Aquarius) was only beaten by a neck seven years back, before the short head defeat of ORDER OF ST GEORGE twelve months ago. Aidan’s warrior had won the previous renewals and looks sure to run his race but on this ground, STRADIVARIUS is preferred, even though John Gosden’s young pretender only receives 16 ounces from Ryan Moore’s mount. Official ratings suggest that the dethroned king will have his day in the sun again, though I’m not so sure. If softer ground has been in place, VAZIRABAD would have to have been taking very seriously, given that the French raider has won fifteen of his last twenty races. Even as things stand, layers have got a half decent chance of getting the front two beaten which is all that will be on their minds over breakfast/brunch this morning.
Favourite factor: Thirteen market leaders have claimed Placepot positions during the last twenty one years, statistics which include nine winning favourites during the study period.
Record of the five course winners in the 'Gold Cup':
2/4—Order Of St George (2 x soft)
1/3—Mount Moriah (good)
1/2—Stradivarius (good to firm)
5.00: 13 of the last 14 winners of the ‘Britannia’ have carried weights of 8-9 or more, though unfortunately, no horses are eliminated on that count on this occasion. The draw for this event is not as conclusive compared to the Royal Hunt Cup (which proved valuable again yesterday), whereby I am taking four horses across the width of the stalls against the field on this occasion, namely JAMES COOK (25 – my each way play in the race), CURISOITY (33), SAM GOLD (11) and MOQARRAR (1). FIRST CONTACT and CORROSIVE are the nominated reserve selections.
Favourite factor: The record of favourites in this event is plenty good enough given the competitive nature of the contest on an annual basis. Four clear market leaders have prevailed in the last 21 years, alongside a joint market leader back in 1999. That said, ‘only’ nine of the twenty five favourites have claimed Placepot positions in the process.
Draw stats – most recent result listed first followed by SP details:
3-1-7-27 (29 ran-good to firm) – 25/1-16/1-14/1-25/1
12-18-23-30 (28 ran-good to soft) – 13/2-20/1-12/1-66/1
11-3-31-7 (28 ran-good to firm) – 10/1-14/1-28/1-33/1
26-20-12-30 (30 ran-good to firm) – 14/1-25/1-8/1-7/1*)
15-12-24-30 (27 ran-good to firm) – 20/1-33-1/16-17/2*
6-7-17-3 (29 ran-good to soft) – 6/1*-50/1-20/1-40/1
23-15-18-30 (29 ran-good to soft) – 8/1-20/1-100/1-10/1
6-31-29-23 (27 ran-good to firm) – 9/1-33/1-40/1-33/1
18-20-3-4 (30 ran-good to firm) – 20/1-22/1-16/1-20/1
30-12-4-27 (28 ran-good to firm) – 28/1-20/1-12/1-33/1
2-29-16-11 (30 ran-good to firm) – 33/1-16/1-33/1-4/1*
Horses draw 15 or lower: 7 wins & 14 places – Higher: 4 wins & 19 places
Average price of the winner: 11/1 – Average prices of placed horses: 16/1
Horses drawn higher tend to produce more ‘masses’ in terms of potential forecasts/tricasts as was the case yesterday in the Royal Hunt Cup whereby the same advice applies.
Record of the three course winners in the Brittania Handicap:
1/1—Rufus King (good)
1/1—Corrosive (good to firm)
5.35: Mark Johnston has saddled the winner of four of the last fifteen contests and with fourteen of the last fifteen winners have carried weights of 9-1 or less, stable contender COMMUNIQUE is the first name on my team sheet. Any number of horses could be described as dangers, with CORGI, HE’S AMAZING and DOWNDRAFT being ‘short listed’.
Favourite factor: 13 of the 25 favourites have claimed Placepot positions during the last 18 years (four winners).
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.