Posts

Stat of the Day, 8th July 2019

Saturday's pick was...

4.10 Sandown : Magical Wish @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 7/4 (Tracked leading pair on inside, pushed along over 2f out, went 2nd inside final furlong, hard ridden and stayed on towards finish, not quite pace to challenge, beaten by a neck)

Monday's pick runs in the...

8.40 Ripon :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Fairy Fast @ 5/1 BOG

...in a 14-runner, Class 5, Flat Handicap for 3yo over 6f on Good To Firm worth £3752 to the winner...

Why?...

Yes, another David O'Meara trained horse ridden by Danny Tudhope, but from a different perspective today. Danny is still riding really well clocking up the winners and both he and David have good records here at Ripon individually and also as a partnership (31/145 = 21.4% SR) for 71.8pts @ 49.5% ROI in handicaps here), but I said enough about the partnership last week, so I'm not delving into that stat today, although it does remain a very valid starting point!

Instead I'm going to focus on the form of this 3 yr old filly and share a saved micro-system based on a quirk of results. Let me explain : this filly won here over course and distance four starts ago and her form since then reads 222, culminating in a two length-defeat at Thirsk five weeks ago when staying on strongest over 5f.

She's now back up in trip to her last winning distance and that run also qualifies her for a micro of mine, simply labelled "2-2-2" which basically highlights horses who finished as runner-up in each of their last three runs. The only restrictions imposed are that they need to be running in a UK Class 2 to 5 contest, 6-45 days after a defeat by a neck to 10 lengths.

Since the start of 2016, I've had 461 qualifiers yielding 116 winners (25.2% SR) and 91.8pts profit at an ROI of 19.9%. I appreciate you might not want 10-12 qualifiers per month from one angle, so the following filters are applicable today...

  • 84/316 (26.6%) for 139.1pts (+44%) in fields of 7-14 runners
  • 72/326 (22.1%) for 65.5pts (+20.1%) in handicaps
  • 71/330 (21.5%) for 98.3pts (+29.8%) at odds of 15/8 to 11/1
  • 50/170 (29.4%) for 35.1pts (+20.6%) on the Flat
  • 46/153 (30.1%) for 33.7pts (+22%) at Class 5
  • 33/112 (29.5%) for 36.3pts (+32.4%) from female runners
  • 21/66 (31.8%) for 28pts (+42.4%) on Good to Firm ground
  • 20/73 (27.4%) for 55.9pts (+76.6%) at 31-45 dslr
  • 20/90 (22.2%) for 36.2pts (+40.2%) stepping up in trip by 0.5 to 1 furlong
  • and 18/41 (43.9%) for 44.7pts (+109.1%) in July

...and from the above and relevant today... at odds of 15/8 to 11/1 in 7-14 runner Flat handicaps = 24 from 75 (32% SR) for 64.5pts (+86% ROI) and these include...

  • 11/28 (39.3%) for 27.5pts (+98.3%) at Class 5
  • 8/22 (36.4%) for 36.5pts (+166%) from females
  • and 5/12 941.7%) for 17.8pts (+148.4%) from Class 5 females...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Fairy Fast @ 5/1 BOG as offered by BetVictor & Hills at 5.05pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 8.40 Ripon

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 8th July 2019

Saturday's pick was...

4.10 Sandown : Magical Wish @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 7/4 (Tracked leading pair on inside, pushed along over 2f out, went 2nd inside final furlong, hard ridden and stayed on towards finish, not quite pace to challenge, beaten by a neck)

Monday's pick runs in the...

8.40 Ripon :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Fairy Fast @ 5/1 BOG

...in a 14-runner, Class 5, Flat Handicap for 3yo over 6f on Good To Firm worth £3752 to the winner...

Why?...

Yes, another David O'Meara trained horse ridden by Danny Tudhope, but from a different perspective today. Danny is still riding really well clocking up the winners and both he and David have good records here at Ripon individually and also as a partnership (31/145 = 21.4% SR) for 71.8pts @ 49.5% ROI in handicaps here), but I said enough about the partnership last week, so I'm not delving into that stat today, although it does remain a very valid starting point!

Instead I'm going to focus on the form of this 3 yr old filly and share a saved micro-system based on a quirk of results. Let me explain : this filly won here over course and distance four starts ago and her form since then reads 222, culminating in a two length-defeat at Thirsk five weeks ago when staying on strongest over 5f.

She's now back up in trip to her last winning distance and that run also qualifies her for a micro of mine, simply labelled "2-2-2" which basically highlights horses who finished as runner-up in each of their last three runs. The only restrictions imposed are that they need to be running in a UK Class 2 to 5 contest, 6-45 days after a defeat by a neck to 10 lengths.

Since the start of 2016, I've had 461 qualifiers yielding 116 winners (25.2% SR) and 91.8pts profit at an ROI of 19.9%. I appreciate you might not want 10-12 qualifiers per month from one angle, so the following filters are applicable today...

  • 84/316 (26.6%) for 139.1pts (+44%) in fields of 7-14 runners
  • 72/326 (22.1%) for 65.5pts (+20.1%) in handicaps
  • 71/330 (21.5%) for 98.3pts (+29.8%) at odds of 15/8 to 11/1
  • 50/170 (29.4%) for 35.1pts (+20.6%) on the Flat
  • 46/153 (30.1%) for 33.7pts (+22%) at Class 5
  • 33/112 (29.5%) for 36.3pts (+32.4%) from female runners
  • 21/66 (31.8%) for 28pts (+42.4%) on Good to Firm ground
  • 20/73 (27.4%) for 55.9pts (+76.6%) at 31-45 dslr
  • 20/90 (22.2%) for 36.2pts (+40.2%) stepping up in trip by 0.5 to 1 furlong
  • and 18/41 (43.9%) for 44.7pts (+109.1%) in July

...and from the above and relevant today... at odds of 15/8 to 11/1 in 7-14 runner Flat handicaps = 24 from 75 (32% SR) for 64.5pts (+86% ROI) and these include...

  • 11/28 (39.3%) for 27.5pts (+98.3%) at Class 5
  • 8/22 (36.4%) for 36.5pts (+166%) from females
  • and 5/12 941.7%) for 17.8pts (+148.4%) from Class 5 females...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Fairy Fast @ 5/1 BOG as offered by BetVictor & Hills at 5.05pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 8.40 Ripon

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 29th April 2019

Saturday's pick was...

4.35 Ripon : Asad @ 9/4 BOG 3rd at 10/11 (Led over 7f out, pushed along and edged left 2f out, ridden and headed approaching final furlong, kept on same pace and lost 2nd inside final furlong)

Monday's pick runs in the...

7.30 Windsor :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Persian Sun @ 5/2 BOG

...in a 8-runner, Class 4 Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m 3 1/2f on good to firm ground worth £5531 to the winner...

Why?...

The handicap debutant which wasn't SotD won on Saturday (by five lengths, 7/2 into 5/4) while the selection could only manage third. Sigh. -1 on our records, of course.

I'm sticking with Simon Crisford, an excellent trainer, for Monday's pick. He runs Persian Sun for the first time in a handicap - and, yes, I'm unapologetic about going after that angle again; this is a time of year when lots of horses step forward having wintered well from two to three or, as in this case, from three to four.

Crisford has a 30% strike rate with horses making their handicap debut in the last two years, scoring with 17 of 56 of them (30.36%, +16.91, A/E 1.47).

As discussed the other day, he's also very well capable of getting a horse fit on its first start after a break. Horses running off a 60+ day layoff for Crisford are 25/93 in the last two years (26.88%, +38.00, A/E 1.38).

This fellow returns after 135 days away, and was last seen when winning a Newcastle novice stakes. Crisford with last day winners is 24/96 (25%, -4.89, A/E 1.02). The market is on to these: the SP market at any rate, and I expect this horse to shorten by the time the stalls open.

Because this is a Sheikh Obaid horse, Crisford teams up with the owner's retained jockey, Andrea Atzeni. When the pair have combined in the last two years, they've gone 7/25 (28%, +11.80, A/E 1.19).

All of which gives us...

... a 1pt win bet on Persian Sun @ 5/2 BOG which was available with bet365, Ladbrokes and Coral at 6.45pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 7.30 Windsor

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I'm out of the country for most of April, but SotD will still be here every day, albeit in slightly different circumstances, click here for the end of March update which explains the plan in fuller detail!

Stat of the Day, 27th April 2019

Friday's pick was...

4.05 Sandown : Leodis Dream @ 11/4 BOG WON at 15/8 (With leaders, ridden to lead and edged left over 1f out, strongly pressed and held on gamely near finish, all out)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

4.35 Ripon :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Asad @ 9/4 BOG

...in a 6-runner, Class 4 Flat Novice Stakes for 3yo over 1m2f on good to firm ground worth £5822 to the winner...

Why?...

Matt here for Saturday's and Monday's picks and I have to say I came very close to going with James Tate's HC1 runner at Ripon (New Graduate, 2.20). Tate's current form, his record at the track in handicaps in the last five years (711711) and his by now well known record with handicap debutants made that fellow very appealing.

But, on the statistics and at the price, I thought Asad was better value. This Lope de Vega colt had two runs as a juvenile for George Peckham, both creditable efforts in races which have worked out quite well.

So this is his first run for Simon Crisford, a man who doesn't get many 'second-hand' horses to train. Nevertheless, he's one-from-three with such acquisitions for a two point profit. Nothing earth-shattering, but it gets better.

Crisford is stepping Asad up in trip by more than two furlongs tomorrow, a feat he's performed with ten horses in the last two years. Four of them have won (40% SR, +7, A/E 1.43) and nine of them made the frame!

Fitness can be a worry on the first run of a new season, but again Crisford excels: he's won with 24 of 92 runners off a 60+ day layoff (26.09%, +34.5, A/E 1.36).

His record at the track is yet another positive: 5216282111 in the last two years. That's four from ten (40%, +3.72).

There is very little form to go on, but with the favourite a shade of odds on (having won at 50/1 on debut and been beaten at 25/1 on his only other start), Simon Crisford's numbers make the play...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Asad @ 9/4 BOG which was generally available at 6.30pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.35 Ripon

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I'm out of the country for most of April, but SotD will still be here every day, albeit in slightly different circumstances, click here for the end of March update which explains the plan in fuller detail!

Stat of the Day, 18th April 2019

Wednesday's pick was...

6.10 Beverley : Elixsoft @ 11/4 BOG 7th at 9/4 (Mid-division, ridden inside final 2f, never able to challenge, weakened final furlong)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

4.35 Ripon :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Alkaamel @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 3, Flat Handicap for 3yo over 1m on Good ground worth £8715 to the winner... 

Why?...

This 3 yr old gelding has finished 1112 in four runs this year and was only beaten by a neck last time out. That was at today's class/trip up at Newcastle 17 days ago when he just couldn't quite repel Hesslewood who was dropping in both class and weight that day.

Hesslewood re-opposes today, of course, but our boy is a pound better off at the weights here and with the benefit of a better draw, I fancy his chances of reversing the placings on his way to improving career stats that have seen him finish...

  • 1112 in handicaps
  • 1112 in fields of fewer than 11 runners
  • 111 as a favourite
  • 112 over the 1m trip
  • 811 after 16-30 days rest
  • 12 under today's jockey, 7lb claimer, Cieren Fallon

Our boy also has the benefit of being trained by William Haggas, who does rather well at this venue from a fairly select number of runners. In fact Mr Haggas' charges have won 22 of 49 (44.9% SR) here over the last five seasons, generating level stakes profits of 13.74pts at a healthy ROI of 28% and these include...

  • 17/35 (48.6%) for 20.5pts (+58.7%) at odds of 4/6 to 13/2
  • 17/34 (50%) for 16.2pts (+47.6%) from his 3 yr olds
  • 18/31 (58.1%) for 15.05pts (+48.6%) with male runners
  • 12/30 (40%) for 6.05pts (+20.2%) on Good ground
  • 9/19 (47.4%) for 10.44pts (+55%) in 3yo races
  • 8/13 (61.5%) for 6.8pts (+52.3%) over this 1m C&D
  • 6/8 (75%) for 5.66pts (+70.7%) in April
  • and 2/3 (66.6%) for 2.9pts (+96.5%) at Class 3

...whilst, from the above... 3 yr old males at 4/6 to 13/2 on Good ground are 7/10 (70% SR) for 12pts (+120% ROI), from which they are 5 from 8 in 3yo races, 3 from 3 over this 1m C&D, 2 from 2 at Class 3 and 2 from 2 in April...

...pointing to... a 1pt win bet on Alkaamel @ 11/4 BOG as was offered by at least half a dozen firms at 5.45pm on Wednesday (12.45pm here), but those of you with an unrestricted Bet365 account can get an extra quarter point right now. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.35 Ripon

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I'm out of the country for most of April, but SotD will still be here every day, albeit in slightly different circumstances, click here for the end of March update which explains the plan in fuller detail!

Stat of the Day, 30th May 2018

Tuesday's Runner was...

4.40 Lingfield : Roundabout Magic @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 3/1 (Held up, headway when not clear run and switched right inside final furlong, ran on, not quite reach front pair and beaten by approx 1/4 of  a length)

Next up is Wednesday's...

8.10 Ripon :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Pipers Note @ 6/1 or 5/1 BOG*** 

A 10-runner, Class 3, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 6f on Good To Firm ground worth £9338 to the winner... 

Why?

OK, so we've an 8 yr old gelding who at first glance looks even more out of form than I am, but bear with the both of us, please! Pipers Note won this race last year off a mark of 95 before winning again 11 days later off a revised OR of 98.

Sadly to say, he's been in the grip of the handicapper ever since and with no wins from 11 efforts in the 49 weeks since that win, his mark has now dropped to 94 suggesting he could very well be weighted to win again.

In addition to a falling handicap mark, today's conditions look ideal for him to improve upon an already decent record on the Flat which stands at 10 wins from 48 (20.8% SR) for profits of 32.2pts at an ROI of 67.7%, from which the following relevant race factors are at play today...

  • in handicaps : 8/36 (22.2%) for 26pts (+72.3%)
  • over 6f : 6/27 (22.2%) for 19.6pts (+72.7%)
  • 6-20 dslr : 7/26 (26.9%) for 28.13pts (+108.2%)
  • OR 85-99 : 7/25 (28%) for 32pts (+128%)
  • at 9/1 and shorter : 10/24 (41.7%) for 56.2pts (+234.2%)
  • 7-11 runners : 7/15 (46.7%) for 35.9pts (+239.2%)
  • Ripon : 6/15 (40%) for 32.1pts (+213.7%)
  • Class 3 : 8/13 (61.5%) for 40.5pts (+311.6%)
  • Ripon 6f C&D : 5/13 (38.5%) for 26.55pts (+204.2%)
  • dropping down a class : 4/12 (33.3%) for 18.8pts (+156.7%)
  • Good to Firm : 4/12 (33.3%) for 18.65pts (+155.4%)
  • and Ripon 6f C&D at Class 3 : 4/4 (100%) for 21.6pts (+540.3%)

James P Sullivan takes the ride today and since the start of the 2013 season, he is 9/72 (12.5% SR) for 103.4pts (+143.6% ROI) on Ruth Carr's Ripon handicappers, amongst which he is...

  • 5/24 (20.8%) for 121pts (+504%) at Class 3
  • 5/23 (21.7%) for 113.84pts (+495%) since the start of the 2017 campaign
  • and 4/6 966.6%) for 124.64pts (+2077.3%) at Class 3 since the start of the 2017 campaign, including winning this race on Pipers Note last year at 15/2.

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Pipers Note @ 6/1 or 5/1 BOG***  which was available from Bet365 and Betbright respectively (I'll use the lower price in my results) at 5.25pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 8.10 Ripon

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 30th September 2017

Friday's Result :

3.00 Newmarket : Nyaleti @ 10/3 BOG 2nd at 2/1 : Raced alone towards far side of centre, chased leaders, 2nd over 1f out, ridden and stayed on inside final furlong, just held off by a head...

Saturday's last pick of another successful month goes in the...

3.10 Ripon :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Show Palace @ 7/2 BOG

Why?

This 4 yr old gelding is in great form, having finished 131171 in his last six runs and this consistency is refelcted in his career record of 9 wins from 22 on the Flat, which include the following relevant stats for today's race...

  • 9 wins and a place from 17 at 5 furlongs
  • 7 wins and 3 places from 16 after a break of just 8-30 days
  • 5 wins from 7 in August/September
  • 3 wins and 2 place from 6 soft ground efforts
  • 3 wins from 3 under Joe Fanning
  • and 1 from 1 in this grade.

He's trained by Jennie Candlish, possibly better known for her NH runners, but she's currently 2 from over the last fortnight, whilst over the past 2 years her record includes...

  • 56/348 (16.1%) for 19pts (+5.5%) in handicaps
  • 13/62 (21%) for 39.5pts (+63.6%) on the Flat
  • 13/59 (22%) for 42.5pts (+71.9%) in Flat handicaps
  • 7/16 (43.75%) for 16.56pts (+103.5%) in handicaps over 5 furlongs
  • 6/14 (42.9%) for 16.2pts (+116%) with handicappers ridden by Joe Fanning

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Show Palace @ 7/2 BOG, which was offered by a half dozen of so firms at 6.50pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.10 Ripon

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 7th June 2017

Tuesday's Result :

4.40 Wetherby : Golden Apollo @ 11/2 BOG 3rd at 3/1 Tracked leader, keen, led over 3f out, headed over 2f out, rallied over 1f out, kept on same pace closing stages.

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

8.35 Ripon...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Pumblechook11/4 BOG

Why?

This 4 yr old gelding has one win and two placed from finished from just five career runs to date and was a very creditable 3rd of 12 runners on his yard debut when last seen 12 days ago.

He'd been out of action for almost 8 months prior to that run and now that new handler Mark Johnston has had a bit longer with him and the cobwebs have been blown off, further improvement can be expected, especially now that he runs off the same mark, but at a lower grade than LTO.

The yard is going well of late with 18 winners from 89 (20.2% SR) in the past fortnight, whilst here at Ripon since the start of the 2015 campaign, Mark's runners are 22/95 (23.2% SR) for profits of 83.7pts at an excellent ROI of 88.1% and these runners include the following of relevance/note today...

  • males are 15/60 (25%) for 81.7pts (+136.2%)
  • those priced at 2/1 to 8/1 are 15/55 (27.3%) for 22.8pts (+41.5%)
  • those last seen 11 to 45 days ago are 14/53 (26.4%) for 47.7pts (+89.9%)
  • at Class 5 : 10/31 (32.3%) for 84.7pts (+273.3%)
  • whilst those ridden by Silvestre de Sousa are 5/8 (62.5%) for 10.6pts (+132.2%)

AND... males priced at 2/1 to 8/1 some 11-45 days after their last run are 7 from 20 (35% SR) for 14.9pts (+74.5% ROI) profit, with Silvestre de Sousa having a perfect 2 from 2 record yielding 7.53pts (+376.5%)...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Pumblechook11/4 BOG which was available from Betway & Ladbrokes at 7.05pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 8.35 Ripon

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Stat of the Day, 12th May 2017

Thursday's Result :

2.05 Catterick : Capla Dancer @ 5/2 BOG non-runner

Friday's pick goes in the...

7.40 Ripon...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Swift Emperor11/2 BOG

Why?

A 5 year old gelding who won two starts ago before running a very creditable fourth of 21 in a big field Class 2 handicap last time out almost six weeks ago.

In his defence, he was only beaten by less than two lengths on unsuitably soft ground, a feeling backed up by his record of 2 wins and a place from 5 runs on good to firm ground like he faces today. This return to favoured ground allied to a drop in class should see him in a better light today.

As well as the above, he's of interest to me, because he's a system qualifier of one of my many micro-systems I have stored over recent years and it's I call "1-2/3/4", because it revolves around horses who won two starts ago (the 1) and were then 2nd, 3rd or 4th last time out (ie 2/3/4).

There are of course other parameters to consider, but those last two placings are the base of the study.

The angle I like to go at with these horses is as follows...

...April to September / Flat (turf) / Age 3 to 5 / last run 21-90 days ago / beaten by no more than 5 lengths last time out...

Such horses are 524/2827 (18.5% SR) for 749pts (+26.5% ROI) since the start of the 2010 season, so it's a considerable data sample and one worth logging down as a part of a portfolio. And with today's race in mind, those 2827 runners include...

  • on good to firm ground : 213/1069 (19.9%) for 325.5pts (+30.5%)
  • 5 yr olds are 64/393 (16.3%) for 223.1pts (+56.8%)
  • and at Class 3 : 88/382 (23%) for 264.5pts (+69.2%)

...providing...a 1pt win bet on Swift Emperor11/2 BOG which was on offer by both Betfair Sports and Paddy Power at 5.20pm on Thursday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.40 Ripon

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Sat TV Trends: 13th Aug 2016

Another busy Saturday ahead and as always we've got all the trends & stats you need ahead of the LIVE C4 action from Newbury, Newmarket and Ripon this Saturday…

tvtrends-300x73

 

 

 

NEWMARKET Horse Racing Trends (C4/RUK)

2.15 – Rigeoens Fillies´ Nursery Handicap Cl2 7f CH4

5 previous renewals
5/5 – Returned 7/1 or bigger in the betting
4/5 – Carried 8-11 or more in weight
2/5 – Ridden by Luke Morris
0/5 – Winning favourites


2.45 – Pantile Stud Grey Horse Handicap (for Grey Horses Only) Cl4 6f CH4

12/13 – Failed to win last time out
11/13 – Aged 5 or older
11/13 – Had won over 6f before
11/13 – Had 4 or more runs already that season
10/13 – Had 3 or more career wins
10/13 – Aged 5, 6 or 7 years-old
10/13 – Winning distance of 1 length or less
9/13 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
9/13 – Carried 9-1 or less
8/13 – Unplaced favourites
3/13 – Trained by Tony Newcombe
1/13 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 13/1
George Bowen won the race in 2015
Crew Cut win the race in 2013
Time Medicean won the race in 2011


3.20 – CJ Murfitt Ltd (Handicap) Cl2 6f CH4

13/14 – Failed to win last time out
12/14 – Only had 1 or 2 career wins to their name
11/14 – Had 4 or more previous runs that season
11/14 – Had won over 6f before
11/14 – Came from stall 10 or lower
10/14 – Winning distance ½ length or less
9/14 – Rated 82 to 88 inc
9/14 – Carried 8-13 or less
9/14 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
8/14 – Finished 2nd or 3rd last time out
7/14 – Had run at the track before (4 won)
6/14 – Ran at Ascot last time out
6/14 – Winners won by a neck
4/14 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
3/14 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
2/14 – Trained by Roger Charlton
2/14 – Trained by Mark Johnston
2/14 – Trained by David Barron
2/14 – Trained by Kevin Ryan (2 of last 3 runnings)
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9.5/1

Your first 30 days for just £1


NEWBURY Horse Racing Trends (C4/RUK)


2.30 – Denford Stud Washington Singer Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 7f CH4

12/14 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
12/14 – Finished in the first three last time out
11/14 – Won by a Feb (7) or March (4) foal
11/14 – Had won a race before
10/14 – Winning distance 1 ¼ lengths or more
10/14 – Had won over 6 or 7f before
8/14 – Placed favourites
8/14 – Horses from stall 3 placed
7/14 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
7/14 – Won last time out
6/14 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
4/14 – Ran at Goodwood (2) or Sandown (2) last time out
3/14 – Trained by John Gosden
3/14 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
3/14 – Trained by Mark Johnston
2/14 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/14 – Won on their racecourse debut
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 11/4


3.05 – Betfred Geoffrey Freer Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m5f61y CH4

14/14 – Had won at least twice in their career
12/14 – Had won over 1m4f or further before
10/14 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
10/14 – Officially rated 111 or higher
10/14 – Winning distance of 1 ¼ lengths or more
10/14 – Drawn in stall 3 or higher
10/14 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
10/14 – Aged 3-5 years-old
8/14 – Placed favourites
8/14 – Had 3 or more previous runs that season
8/14 – Ran at Goodwood (3) or Newmarket (5) last time out
7/14 – Winning favourites
7/14 – Had already won a Group race
6/14 – Had won at Newbury before
3/14 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/14 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
2/14 – Trained by Jeremy Noseda
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 5/1


3.40 – Betfred TV Ladies Day Handicap Cl3 7f CH4

13/14 – Aged 3, 4 or 5 years-old
12/14 – Had 4 or more previous runs that season
12/14 – Had won at least twice during their career
11/14 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
10/14 – Winning distance 1 length or shorter
10/14 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
9/14 – Carried 9-1 or more
9/14 – Previous winners over 7f
9/14 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
8/14 – Rated between 95 and 103
7/14 – Drawn in stalls 12, 13, 14 or 15
6/14 – Ran at Ascot last time out
6/14 – Had run at Newbury before
3/14 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
2/14 – Trained by Mark Johnston
2/14 – Won by the Hills yard
2/14 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 6/1


4.10 – Betfred Hungerford Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 7f CH4

13/14 – Had won a Listed (5) or Group (8) race before
13/14 – Didn’t win last time out
12/14 – Had won 3 or more times already in their career
12/14 – Had 3 or more previous runs already that season
11/14 – Had won over this 7f trip before
11/14 – Officially rated 110 or more
11/14 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
8/14 – Winning distance was 1 length or more
8/14 – Had run at Newbury before (4 won)
6/14 – Ran at Goodwood last time out
2/14 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer
2/14 – Trained by Richard Hannon
2/14 – Trained by Clive Cox
Breton Rock won the race in 2014 and was third in 2015
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 6/1


RIPON Horse Racing Trends (C4/ATR)


3.55 – William Hill Great St Wilfrid Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 6f CH4

12/14 – Previous winners over 6f
11/14 – Didn’t win last time out
10/14 – Winning distance of 1 length or less
9/14 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
9/14 – Carried 8-12 or more
9/14 – Had 5 or more previous runs already that season
8/14 – Finished unplaced last time out
8/14  - Had run at Ripon before (3 won)
7/14 – Unplaced favourites
6/14 – Ran at either Goodwood (3) or Newmarket (3) last time out
6/14 – Aged 4 years-old
4/14 – Winning favourites
2/14 – Trained by David Nicholls
1/14 – Aged 3 years-old
No winner from stall 1 in the last 10 runnings
6 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 8-12 (inc)
Only 5 winning favourites since 1990
Since 1986 ALL winners have returned 20/1 or less
The average winning SP in the last 14 runnings is 11/1

 

Trainers Quotes

FREE TRIAL: TRAINERS-QUOTES.COM: GET THE BEST INFO FROM 21 TOP STABLES EACH DAY - Sent direct to your in-box!

"Take Cover took this race in 2014 and a close second 12 months ago so no issues on the track and trip. Didn't work out at Ascot last time out as the ground went too soft for him and the draw not ideal. In really good form at home and at this course and on this quicker ground confident of a good run. Tough race, but looks a great e/w price."
David C Griffiths

29/07/16 1st 8/1

"Palmerston - Won well for us two runs back beating a fair yardstick in Fort Jefferson. That was over a mile so the return to this trip after trying 1m2f last time is a big plus. Yes, 5lbs higher than that win and higher grade but the horse is very well at home and I think we head here with a great each-way chance at a nice price. We've a few out today, but this one looks the value e/w bet from all my runners."
Mick Appleby

23/07/16 1st 20/1 

Follow Andy Newton Here - @NewtsDailyLays

Double Dutch, 4th August 2015

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 4th August 2015

Good Morning everyone, firstly I kick off with an apology about yesterday. I'd been in Majorca on a "working break" (working by the pool beats rainy East Lancashire hands down!), but a loss of wifi at the hotel and a 2hr flight delay meant I hadn't got the double online before 11.00am.

This meant that Matt had to jump in at the last minute and not only was it one of the poorest days of racing for a long time, his hands were pretty tied into going to the evening meetings only, due to timings etc.

So, despite another frustrating near miss, I thought he did rather well at trying to land a 19/1 double via two awful contests! As it was, it was another one of those winner/runner-up combo days, that did at least reward those doing the forecasts/exactas with a nice 1-2 finish at Windsor.

"Normal" service/timings today, but hopefully a change in luck for me.

Monday's results were as follows:

Kenny The Captain : 2nd at 5/2 (adv 4/1)
Blue Jacket : 4th at 3/1 (adv 16/5)
----------------------------------------------------
Uele River : WON at 3/1 (adv 3/1)
Burmese : 2nd at 9/4 (adv 16/5)
The Exacta paid £12.70 here.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Results to date:
642 winning selections from 2265 = 28.34%
202 winning bets in 587 days = 34.41%

Stakes: 1173.50pts
Returns: 1290.78pts
P/L : +117.28pts (+9.99% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Tuesday's selected races are as follows...

8.05 Ripon:

Duke Street has been in imperious form of late, not only running well but proving to be very versatile too. He has finished 14111 in his last five starts, including wins over 12 and 14 furlongs before winning his last two at today's two mile trip. The four wins came on Wolverhampton's Tapeta, Chelmsford's Polytrack and on soft ground at Chepstow last time out, so Good to Soft here shouldn't be an issue, nor should the trip.

He's up another 8lb for his recent form to a mark of 77, but does get a very healthy 15lbs weight for age allowance  and when you combine his trainer's (Mark Johnston) record with 3 yr olds in longer distance open age handciaps with the way Duke Street comfortably got home by four lengths last time out, then this one has to be on the shortlist here at 5/2 BOG.

He may, however, struggle to concede 2lbs to another well-treated 3 yr old in the guise of the 15/8 BOG favourite Amour de Nuit, whose trainer Sir Mark Prescott is 5/14 with 3yr olds in handicaps here at Ripon and is also another of the leading exponents at exploiting the WFA "loophole".

Amour de Nuit won at the first time of trying 2m at Lingfield last time out, just about getting home by a neck staying on well despite having to cahnge course a couple of times in a race that offered little room at the head of affairs. Prior to that, he'd finished 2nd over 1m5f and 1m6f, outpaced in the midsection on both occasions, but staying on strongly at the finish, suggesting that this is his best trip and with the benefit of having that run at Lingfield, could well imrpove further today.

*

9.20 Chelmsford :

Bertie Blu Boy is certainly towards the upper reaches of his capabilites here off a mark of 83 less a 7lb claim, but the return to familiar racing conditions might just eke a little more out of him again this evening. He effectively runs off the same mark as a 0.75 length defeat as a runner-up over this track and trip last time out (2 weeks ago).

I've nothing against Rob Hornby, who rode him last time (in fact, I rate him pretty highly off his 5lb claim), but Kevin Lundie just seems to get a bit more out of the horse, winning 6 of their 10 races together, including a perfect three from three record here at Chelmsford. They have won together over course and distance and that was at a grade higher than this two starts ago. This says that if Kevin can get a similar level of performance from Bertie Blu Boy as that run then they've every chance at 5/2 BOG.

He is, of course, totally exposed and vulnerable to one with less miles on the clock and that could well be the 7/2 BOG shot Elis Eliz, who interests me here based on her dropping down to 5f for the first time, after three consecutive close defeats in third place over 6f at Class 2, 3 and 4! In each of those 6f runs, she's been found wanting late on, especially when caught and headed in the closing stages here over course and distance at a higher grade last time out.

She was partnered by the in-form Andrea Atzeni for the first time that day and I'm pleased to see him back in the saddle today, having gained some valuable knowledge about the horse from last time. It is also worth noting that Andrea is 12/49 on the A/W for Michael Wigham (11/23 at odds below 9/2!), suggesting a good run from Elis Eliz again today.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Amour de Nuit / Bertie Blu Boy @ 9.06/1 (15/8 & 5/2 : BetWay)
Amour de Nuit / Elis Eliz @ 11.94/1 (15/8 & 7/2 : BetWay & Paddy Power)
Duke Street / Bertie Blu Boy @ 11.25/1 (5/2 & 5/2 : SkyBet, Boylesports & Stan James)
Duke Street / Elis Eliz @ 14.75/1 (5/2 & 7/2 : BetVictor, Boylesports & Stan James)

Double Dutch, 18th June 2015

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 18th June 2015

Urcalin's gutsy battling performance in landing the spoils at Uttoxeter gave him the honour of being our 600th winner for Double Dutch. Unfortunately, we couldn't complement his win with another victory at Ripon, where we had to settle for second and third.

Once again, it was another day of "fine margins" and it was a length and a half on this occasion, barring us from a third winning double inside four days at 12/1.

Wednesday's results were as follows:

Urcalin : WON at 3/1 (adv 11/4)
Highpower : 4th at 13/8 (adv 11/4)
----------------------------------------------------
Tamayuz Magic : 2nd at 15/8 (adv 9/4)
In Vino Veritas : 3rd at 6/4 (adv 7/2)

Results to date:
600 winning selections from 2112 = 28.41%
189 winning bets in 547 days = 34.55%

Stakes: 1093.50pts
Returns: 1206.61pts

Your first 30 days for just £1

P/L : +113.11pts (+10.34% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Thursday's cards look tricky, but I'm going with these...

2.55 Chelmsford:

Par Three has won three of his last seven starts and twice in the last three and despite those last two wins coming in the Channel Islands, he sets the standard on form in what looks a really poor contest for the grade, it actually has mid-range Class 6 stamped all over it.

It's hard to assess the standard of those two most recent wins, but he's only 1lb higher than his win at Kempton in February over this trip. Jockey Luke Morris has a good record round this track and with horse having proven he stays the full 2 miles, Par Three has to be considered as a serious contender at 2/1 BOG.

My marginal preference, however, is for Alan Swinbank's handicap debutant Virnon, who won two bumpers for Susan Corbett last winter before a switch of yards. Mr Swinbank considered him good enough to contest a Grade 2 bumper at Aintree in April, although he was soundly beaten by far better horses than he'll face here.

Despite that defeat, he showed he stays the trip and will probably relish the extra distance today after showing promise in three flat maidens over inadequate trips. More is expected of Virnon now sent handicapping and I'd just about have him at 9/4 BOG over the favourite.

*

3.20 Ripon:

After a couple of promising efforts over 8.5 furlongs on soft/heavy ground, the step up to 1m4f on good ground was the key to getting Searching off the mark at Chester almost three weeks ago. The runner-up from that race has already turned back out and finished as runner-up again at two grades higher than this contest, putting the Chester run in a favourable light.

Roger Varian's horses are coming into some fine form of late after what has been a quiet year by their own high standards and I wouldn't be too surprised to see Searching follow up here with a win at 15/8 BOG. He wore blinkers for the first time at Chester and they're reapplied again today, whilst jockey Paul Mulrennan's form at this track is a bonus.

Tim Easterby has been amongst the winners of late, too and his Multellie must be the big danger, after a win and four places in his last five starts. He was a runner-up at Pontefract last time out, when he didn't have the finishing speed to land a blow over 1m2f, but prior to that run he was a winner over today's longer trip and that's his only run at 1m4f.

Multellie runs off the same mark as last time out and with his pedigree backing up the thought that this trip is more suitable for him, he could make this a really interesting contest, especially if allowed to dominate and dictate the pace. 5/2 BOG is the best price here.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Par Three / Searching @ 7.63/1 (2/1 & 15/8 : Paddy Power)
Par Three / Multellie @ 9.50/1 (2/1 & 5/2 : Betfred , Stan James & Totesport)
Virnon / Searching @ 8.34/1 (9/4 & 15/8 : Paddy Power)
Virnon / Multellie @ 11.25/1 (5/2 & 5/2 : Stan James)

Double Dutch, 17th June 2015

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 17th June 2015

Because of the returns you can achieve from doubling up with what look like short-priced runners, you don't need a huge strike rate to stay ahead of the game and this has been very well demonstrated here recently.

I'd endured something of a barren spell in the fortnight preceding Saturday's winning double and with another win yesterday, we're already as profitable as we've ever been. What a difference a couple of wins can make.

Sail And Return was a horse I really liked and I'd had a bet on it elsewhere too and despite making a real horlicks of the penultimate fence, stayed on strongly to win by three parts of a length. The only surprise to me about the win was the massive drift out to 6/1 from our advised 7/2 (a price I was happy with!).

Full marks also, to Conor Shoemark for sitting tight after the mistake! Our other runner at Stratford was Owen Glendower who also stayed on well to finish third.

It was then over to Thirsk, where a non-runner reduced the field to five and all bets were reduced by 15p in the pound. Our 5/2 BOG pick Emerahldz became a 17/8 shot, but this was still better than the 15/8 SP she was returned at after young Samantha Bell gave her a cracking ride to win by a length and a quarter.

Our other runner and well fancied (7/3 after R4 into 6/4 fav) Sea The Skies was a disappointment, finishing last of the five and beaten by just over five lengths.

All of which meant a 20.88/1 winning double after Rule 4 deductions and another timely reminder about using BOG bookies, as advised odds paid out at 13.06/1 and I certainly can't afford to leave half of my winnings on the table!

Tuesday's results were as follows:

Your first 30 days for just £1

Sail And Return : WON at 6/1 (adv 7/2)
Owen Glendower : 3rd at 9/2 (adv 4/1)
----------------------------------------------------
Emerahldz : WON at 15/8 (adv 5/2 = 17/8 after R4 )
Sea The Skies : 5th at 6/4 (adv 11/4 = 7/3 after R4)

Results to date:
599 winning selections from 2108 = 28.37%
189 winning bets in 546 days = 34.50%

Stakes: 1091.50pts
Returns: 1206.61pts

P/L : +115.11pts (+10.55% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

I'm looking for more of the same on Wednesday...

3.20 Uttoxeter:

Highpower was a winner here a month ago over hurdles in first time cheekpieces which are worn again today and he looks to have been fast tracked to the bigger obstacles after just six runs spread over a 21-month period. That might make you think he's a little inexperienced to go chasing, but he is a half-brother to the very good Alberta's Run from the same yard.

He couldn't be in better hands in that respect and with his breeding in mind, I'd expect he'll fare better over fences than he did over timber and it wouldn't be too much of a surprise to see him Highpower win at the first time of asking at 5/2 BOG.

The main threat should come from the 11/4 BOG Urcalin, who by contrast has already had two unsuccessful cracks at chasing last winter, failing to complete on both occasions. It has to be said, though, that he wasn't in good from over hurdles approcahing the switch to chasing and with confidence low, that could well have been a factor.

He now comes here off the back of finishes of 112 in his last three outings, the latest being a very good second at Aintree at a higher grade than this over a longer trip. Stamina won't be the issue here today, but his jumping does need to improve, but you can guarantee he'll have been well schooled and on basis on current form, I'd expect much better from Urcalin today.

*

9.10 Ripon:

The consistent Tamayuz Magic sets the standard in a poor-looking contest this evening. He has run nine times in the last year, winning three times and finishing third a couple of times and was a winner here last summer. He was staying on well in a half-length defeat at Thirsk last time out over 1m, suggesting that he'll relish the step up to a mile and a half this evening, having already won two of three starts at 1m2f.

A quick look at the race conditions says he's never won on good ground, but with wins on good to firm, good to soft and heavy, I'd say that was more of an anomaly than a reliable stat. In fairness, this is a race that shouldn't take much winning and I'd fancy Tamayuz Magic to do just that at 9/4 BOG (Betway)

Whereas we can get 7/2 BOG from SkyBet about my backup selection In Vino Veritas, who in fairness, has hardly set the world on fire so far. A 19-race maiden (3 x hurdles, 16 x flat) wouldn't usually get the pulses racing, but this is probably the weakest race he has contested and now runs off a career-low mark of 62 which should make him more competitive tonight.

He was second (0.75L) at Hamilton last autumn over this trip off a mark of 63 and achieved the same at Newcastle in October also off 63. The further easing of his makr and the return to better ground will help him here and he's no stranger to the trip either. You'd not want to put your mortgae on In Vino Veritas, but he's a decent alternate to the main selection.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Highpower / Tamayuz Magic @ 11.19/1 (11/4 & 9/4 : SkyBet)
Highpower /
In Vino Veritas @ 15.88/1 (11/4 & 7/2 : SkyBet)
Urcalin / Tamayuz Magic @ 11.19/1 (11/4 & 9/4 : SkyBet)
Urcalin / In Vino Veritas @ 15.88/1 (11/4 & 7/2 : SkyBet)

Stat of the Day, 3rd June 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 3rd June 2015

Knight Bachelor was a real disappointment at Southwell on Tuesday evening after being well supported in the market, shortening from our advised 11/4 to an SP of 15/8. He seemed to be travelling well enough tracking the leaders, but on the approach to towards the home trun had to be ridden quite forcibly for an effort.

The effort wasn't forthcoming and he pretty much went out like a light and jockey Gavin Sheehan had no option, but to throw the towel in. Gavin was probably as surprised as we were, but that counts for nothing now, so let's move on to Wednesday's...

8.40 Ripon:

A Class 5 maiden over 1m2f where I've backed Ralph Beckett's 3 yr old colt Argus, who showed plenty of promise when beaten by less than 4 lengths into 5th place on debut at Newmarket 7 weeks ago.

That race's form seems to be working out well enough so far with three of the top six that day reappearing since: the runner-up is 1 from 1 since then, as is the 6th placed horse, whilst the third place from that day has been a runner-up in each of two subsequent starts.

Ralph's a rare visitor to Ripon, but four of his nineteen (21.1% SR) representatives here since 2010 have been winners, with all four winners coming from the 9 runners sent off below 3/1 (which is where I think we'll end up!), but for a larger sample size, you could just...

...back all Ralph's runners! Because, if you'd done this since the start of 2009, you'd have backed 428 winners from 2574 bets (16.6% SR) and made yourself just over £4830 profits at an ROI of 18.8% based on a level stake of £10.

Obviously they're great numbers from blind backing, but not everyone wants to back around 400 horses per year from one trainers, so it's interesting to note (with today's race in mind) that Mr Beckett's record in maidens in that same time frame shows 189 winners from 982 (19.25% SR) for profits of 351.1pts at an ROI of 35.8%.

His Class 4/5 maidens are 142/690 (20.6% SR) for 216.8pts (+31.4% ROI) with those in the 5/4 to 6/1 price range winning 87 of 297 (29.3% SR) for 64.3pts (+21.7% ROI) and making a profit every year!

Argus is by Rip Van Winkle, whose progeny have taken very well to racing, winning 29 of 206 (14.1% SR) races to date for level stakes profits of 57.4pts (+27.9% ROI) with those running in maidens winning 16 of 135 (11.9% SR) for 57.6pts (+42.6% ROI) and the Class 4/5 runners are 16/120 (13.33% SR) for 68.6pts (+57.2% ROI).

Rip Van Winkle's offspring runnnig in Class 4/5 maidens are 11/96 (11.5% SR) for 68.3pts (+71.1% ROI) with those running for the second time (like Argus here) winning 9 of 35 (25.7% SR) for 35.5pts (+101.4% ROI), of which those priced at 21 to 5/1 are 5/9 (55.6% SR) for 16.7pts (+185.1% ROI)

I've placed a 1pt win bet on Argus at 100/30 BOG with Bet365, but do check that's still the best on offer by...

...clicking here for the betting on the 8.40 Ripon

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Double Dutch, 26th August 2014

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 26th August 2014

A better day for us yesterday, despite it being eventually fruitless. We did, however, manage to get ourselves back among the the winners and only missed the double in a defeat by a length and a half that was tinged with irony.

In our first race, Authorship took to hurdling as well as could be expected for the Ferguson/McCoy partnership. he made a couple of early mistakes but settled into a rhythm and his flat speed saw him home by a good seven lengths.

Then, it was off to Ripon, where Hanno once again was the bridesmaid of the piece, placing for the fifth consecutive race without winning and here's the ironic/frustrating part: the winner wasn't our other pick, but a typical Brian Ellison debutant.

My Stat of the Day head flagged Lilly Junior up, as the Ellison yard do so well with new recruits, but I'd backed Lilly Junior in the past and she'd been very disappointing and that's why I (wrongly in hindsight!) overlooked her.

Monday's results were as follows:

Authorship: won at 2/1 (adv 9/4)
Brockwell: u/p at 5/4 (adv 13/8)
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Hanno: 2nd at 2/1 (adv 5/2)
Tasmanian: u/p at 3/1 (adv 9/4)

Results to date:
331 winning selections from 1158 = 28.58%
109 winning bets in 302 days = 36.09%

Your first 30 days for just £1

Stakes: 604.00pts
Returns: 676.19pts

P/L : +72.19pts (+11.95% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

I felt we made a step in the right direction yesterday, so hopefully more progress to come from these...

5.20 Ripon:

Tom Tate has a 27% strike rate at this venue and looks set to improve upon that with Mighty Missile here today. He's still unexposed after just six runs and has finished second in two of his three starts this season. His best effort to date cam when he was just touched off by a head here at Ripon ten days ago. He'd been outpaced in the midsection of the race, but stayed on strongly to only just miss out.

He was stepping up to 1m4f for the first time that day, but really looked like he wanted/needed further and he'll certainly get that today at this 2m trip. He also gets a whole stone weight for age allowance, which is often pivotal in these staying contests, making him the most likely to succeed at 15/8 BOG with Coral.

Annes Valentino, on the other hand, is already proven at this trip with finishes of 1532 and she comes here in a decent run of form, having won two and been placed three times in her last six outings.  She looks quite lightly treated running off the same mark of 55 as her last outing and should probably be the bad of a fairly bad bunch chasing the winner home, now that a couple of the other main contenders have been withdrawn.

The non-runners have, of course, compacted the market, but her best price of 4/1 BOG (SkyBet) looks to offer some value here as a secondary selection.

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8.50 Wolverhampton:

The withdrawal of most likely winner Warrigal has opened this race up to a few runners who previously looked destined to contest the minor places here. Of those, Echo Brava would be the one I'd go with, having bypassed an engagement at Epsom yesterday to run here instead. He has better form on artificial surfaces than on the flat, but having said that has only narrowly been beaten in his last three outings, all on grass. He has finished 223 in those races, beaten by head, then a neck and most recently by three parts of a length by Barwick, who won by two lengths at Epsom yesterday.

The return to an all-weather surface should bring a bit more out of a horse already in good nick and if the form from his last race continues to pan out, he'll have every chance at 7/2 BOG in a race that looks weaker than his last outing, despite him running off the same mark.

Dino Mite is the other I like for this one today, she never raced as a two year old and has only competed three times to date. Her best run was the middle one of the three, where she was a 18 lengths winner at Southwell over a mile and a half. She ran well at Nottingham next/last time out, but weakened late on and she looked like a return to A/W racing would suit her better.

And if we go back to that facile win at Southwell, the runner-up that day who was 18 lengths adrift went on to win next time out, as did the fourth place horse, who she actually beat by some 38 lengths, easing down in the last furlong once she'd won! This won't be as easy, but a decent effort back on an A/W surface would put her in the mix and you can also back her at 7/2 BOG.

4 x 0.5pt E/W doubles as follows:

Mighty Missile / Echo Brava @ 11.94/1 (15/8 & 7/2 : Coral)
Mighty Missile / Dino Mite @ 11.94/1 (15/8 & 7/2 : Coral)
Annes Valentino / Echo Brava @ 21.50/1 (4/1 & 7/2 : SkyBet)
Annes Valentino / Dino Mite @ 21.50/1 (4/1 & 7/2 : SkyBet)