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Placepot Pointers – Thursday 21st June

ROYAL ASCOT – JUNE 21

 

Corresponding Placepot dividends during the last seven years:

2017: £447.30 (7 favourites: No winners – 4 placed – 3 unplaced)

2016: £298.60 (7 favourites: 2 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced)

2015: £122.50 (6 favourites: 1 winner - 3 placed - 2 unplaced)

2014: £1,376.00 (7 favourites: 3 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)

2013: £63.00 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 3 placed - 1 unplaced)

2012: £1,505.80 (6 favourites: 1 winner - 1 placed - 4 unplaced)

2011: £209.20 (7 favourites: 3 winners & 4 unplaced)

Average Placepot dividend: £574.63

46 favourites - 12 winners - 14 placed - 20 unplaced

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 25.3% units went through – 14/1 – 13/2** - 8/1 (13/2**)

Race 2: 66.2% of the remaining units when through – 9/2 & 10/3*

Race 3: 50.7% of the remaining units went through – 9/1 – 2/1* - 6/1

Race 4: 79.1% of the remaining units went through – 5/1 – 5/6* - 33/1

Race 5: 8.8% of the remaining units went through – 25/1 – 16/1 – 14/1 – 25/1 (11/2)

Race 6: 27.6% of the units secured the dividend – 7/1 – 8/1 – 20/1 – 14/1 (4/1)

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Royal Ascot: 

Leg 1 (2.30): 8 (The Paddocks), 10 (Shang Shang Shang) & 7 (Rumble Inthejungle)

Leg 2 (3.05): 15 (Wadilsafa), 5 (Key Victory) & 16 (Zaaki)

Leg 3 (3.40): 10 (Sun Maiden), 6 (Magic Wand) & 4 (Highgarden)

Leg 4 (4.20): 9 (Stradivarius) & 6 (Vazirabad)

Leg 5 (5.00): 8 (James Cook), 16 (Curiosity), 24 (Sam Gold) & 12 (Moqarrar)

Leg 6 (5.35): 4 (Comminique) & 16 (Corgi)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.30: Two outsiders grab my attention first and foremost this year, namely THE PADDOCKS (16/1) and RUMBLE INTHEJUGLE (14/1) who both look overpriced in what might prove to be a sub-standard renewal of the Norfolk Stakes.  Richard Hannon was waxing lyrical about his first named raider back in the spring and unlike a lot of his two-year-old stable companions, THE PADDOCKS did not need a ‘prep run’ before scoring at Newbury at the first time of asking.  SHANG SHANG SHANG was reportedly the pick of Wesley Ward’s juvenile representatives before the week began and 4/1 about the projected favourite is now available. I can understand punters latching onto that price, which is in the offing given the disappointing performances of fellow inmates this week.

Favourite factor: 12 of the 23 favourites during the last 20 years claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include just four winners.  However, 11 of the last 18 market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science - statistics include four winners and five market leaders which finished second).

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3.05: Sir Michael Stoute has won two of the last seven renewals is which the yard has been represented and with Michael’s last four runners all having won, the 16/1 quotes by Paddy Power, Betfair and BetVictor about stable contender ZAAKI might not last long this morning.  More logical winners include the likes of WADILSAFA and KEY VICTORY from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: Seven favourites has won via eighteen renewals, though the first market leader was withdrawn before a new market was able to be formed back in 2000.  All the other market leaders (bar two--aside from the winners) have finished out with the washing.

Record of the course winner in the ‘Hampton Court’:

1/1—Fahjjaj (good to soft)

 

3.40: Irish trainers have snared five of the last seven renewals of the 'Ribblesdale' and MAGIC WAND would appear to have as a good a chance as any this time around.  SUN MAIDEN looks a typical Sir Michael Soute raider and having won with all three runners on Wednesday (233/1 treble), SUN MAIDEN looks sure to attract support. HIGHGARDEN might reward each way/Placepot investors at 20/1 in a place this morning if that is the way you want to play the race.  Wild Illiusion will be a popular order and though I rarely desert Charlie Appleby runners in this type of event (particularly from a Placepot angle), I’m not at all sure that the projected favourite offers value for money.

Favourite factor: Just three clear winning favourites has been recorded since 1998, ’recent’ scorers having also been recorded at 25/1—22/1—14/1—12/1—10/1--10/1 & 9/1.  That said, 16 of the 23 market leaders have claimed Placepot positions in the process.

 

4.20: Aidan O’Brien has saddled seven of the last twelve winners of the Gold Cup whilst on two of the other five occasions, an 8/1 chance (Age Of Aquarius) was only beaten by a neck seven years back, before the short head defeat of ORDER OF ST GEORGE twelve months ago.  Aidan’s warrior had won the previous renewals and looks sure to run his race but on this ground, STRADIVARIUS is preferred, even though John Gosden’s young pretender only receives 16 ounces from Ryan Moore’s mount.  Official ratings suggest that the dethroned king will have his day in the sun again, though I’m not so sure.  If softer ground has been in place, VAZIRABAD would have to have been taking very seriously, given that the French raider has won fifteen of his last twenty races.  Even as things stand, layers have got a half decent chance of getting the front two beaten which is all that will be on their minds over breakfast/brunch this morning.

Favourite factor: Thirteen market leaders have claimed Placepot positions during the last twenty one years, statistics which include nine winning favourites during the study period.

Record of the five course winners in the 'Gold Cup':

2/4—Order Of St George (2 x soft)

1/7—Sheikhzayedroad (good)

1/4—Torcedor (soft)

1/3—Mount Moriah (good)

1/2—Stradivarius (good to firm)

 

5.00: 13 of the last 14 winners of the ‘Britannia’ have carried weights of 8-9 or more, though unfortunately, no horses are eliminated on that count on this occasion.  The draw for this event is not as conclusive compared to the Royal Hunt Cup (which proved valuable again yesterday), whereby I am taking four horses across the width of the stalls against the field on this occasion, namely JAMES COOK (25 – my each way play in the race), CURISOITY (33), SAM GOLD (11) and MOQARRAR (1).  FIRST CONTACT and CORROSIVE are the nominated reserve selections.

Favourite factor: The record of favourites in this event is plenty good enough given the competitive nature of the contest on an annual basis. Four clear market leaders have prevailed in the last 21 years, alongside a joint market leader back in 1999.  That said, ‘only’ nine of the twenty five favourites have claimed Placepot positions in the process.

Draw stats – most recent result listed first followed by SP details:

3-1-7-27 (29 ran-good to firm) – 25/1-16/1-14/1-25/1

12-18-23-30 (28 ran-good to soft) – 13/2-20/1-12/1-66/1

11-3-31-7 (28 ran-good to firm) – 10/1-14/1-28/1-33/1

26-20-12-30 (30 ran-good to firm) – 14/1-25/1-8/1-7/1*)

15-12-24-30 (27 ran-good to firm) – 20/1-33-1/16-17/2*

6-7-17-3 (29 ran-good to soft) – 6/1*-50/1-20/1-40/1

23-15-18-30 (29 ran-good to soft) – 8/1-20/1-100/1-10/1

6-31-29-23 (27 ran-good to firm) – 9/1-33/1-40/1-33/1

18-20-3-4 (30 ran-good to firm) – 20/1-22/1-16/1-20/1

30-12-4-27 (28 ran-good to firm) – 28/1-20/1-12/1-33/1

2-29-16-11 (30 ran-good to firm) – 33/1-16/1-33/1-4/1*

Horses draw 15 or lower: 7 wins & 14 places – Higher: 4 wins & 19 places

Average price of the winner: 11/1 – Average prices of placed horses: 16/1

Horses drawn higher tend to produce more ‘masses’ in terms of potential forecasts/tricasts as was the case yesterday in the Royal Hunt Cup whereby the same advice applies.

Record of the three course winners in the Brittania Handicap:

1/1—Rufus King (good)

1/1—Curiosity (good)

1/1—Corrosive (good to firm)

 

5.35: Mark Johnston has saddled the winner of four of the last fifteen contests and with fourteen of the last fifteen winners have carried weights of 9-1 or less, stable contender COMMUNIQUE is the first name on my team sheet. Any number of horses could be described as dangers, with CORGI, HE’S AMAZING and DOWNDRAFT being ‘short listed’.

Favourite factor: 13 of the 25 favourites have claimed Placepot positions during the last 18 years (four winners).

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 20th June

ROYAL ASCOT – JUNE 20

 

Corresponding Placepot dividends during the last seven years:

2017: £156.90 (6 favourites: 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced)

2016: £165.00 (6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced)

2015: £301.80 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

2014: £86.70 (7 favourites: 4 winners - 2 placed - 1 unplaced)

2013: £5,559.90 (8 favourites: 1 winner & 7 unplaced)

2012: £1,326.50 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

2011: £393.10 (7 favourites: No winners - 5 placed - 2 unplaced)

Average Placepot dividend: £1,141.39

46 favourites - 14 winners - 10 placed - 22 unplaced

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 39.5% units went through – 2/1* - 66/1 – 20/1

Race 2: 84.2% of the remaining units when through – 5/1 – 10/11* - 14/1

Race 3: 71.9% of the remaining units went through – 5/2* - 40/1 – 11/4

Race 4: 59.6% of the remaining units went through – 9/4 – 10/1 – 9/2 (2/1)

Race 5: 10.2% of the remaining units went through – 25/1 – 16/1 – 66/1 – 20/1 (13/2)

Race 6: 31.8% of the units secured the dividend – 20/1 – 7/1 – 33/1 – 8/1 (6/1)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Royal Ascot: 

Leg 1 (2.30): 17 (Shades Of Blue) & 1 (Chelsea Cloisters)

Leg 2 (3.05): 11 (Stream Of Stars) & 5 (Kew Gardens)

Leg 3 (3.40): 1 (Hydrangea) & 4 (Arabian Moon)

Leg 4 (4.20): 2 (Cracksman) & 6 (Poet’s Word)

Leg 5 (5.00): 32 (Seniority), 21 (Settle For Bay), 18 (Cape Byron), 24 (Medahim) & 26 (Mukalal)

Leg 6 (5.35): 15 (Society Power), 17 (Symbolization) 14 (Purser) & 18 (Tabdeed)

Suggested stake: 320 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.30: Clive Cox denied Wesley Ward securing a hat trick in this event twelve months ago and the two trainers could be locked in a dual up front via their respective individuals this year, namely SHADES OF BLUE and CHELSEA CLOISTERS.  The exchanges are offering 10/1 bar the two at the time of writing, though punters with burned fingers are still queuing up at the casualty department of the nearest hospital yesterday after the demise of the leading contenders in the opening race of the meeting.  I doubt that this pair will finish out of the frame however, offering up KURIOUS as the each way call whose sire won group races in Australia over sprint trips from the phenomenal Exceed And Excel line of thoroughbreds.

Favourite factor:  Seven clear favourites and two joint market leaders have won during the last 21 renewals, whilst 16 of the 24 market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions during the period.

 

3.05: Although both trainers have other runners in the race, John Gosden (STREAM OF STARS) and Aidan O’Brien (KEW GARDENS) look set to lock horns at the business end of the contest with their respective raiders.  John won with this year’s Gold Cup hope Stradivarius twelve months ago and I’m just siding with his inmate this time around, albeit Aidan is looking for his fifth victory in the race during the last nine years.  LYNWOOD GOLD could give each way investors a decent run for their collective monies, with Mark Johnston also boasting a good record in the contest down the years.  Only Sir Henry Cecil can beat Mark’s tally of seven winners in the Queen’s Vase, with maestro having gone one better during his wonderful career.

Favourite factor: 12 of the last 21 favourites have secured Placepot positions of late, statistics which include seven winners.  19 of the last 21 winners of the Queens Vase were returned at odds of 7/1 or less.

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Record of the course winner in the 'Queen’s Vase': 

1/1—Stream Of Stars (good to firm)

 

3.40: Four-year-olds have a good record in this event, boasting 29 horses that have claimed Placepot positions from the 42 available places to date, statistics which includes twelve of the fourteen winners. Indeed, four-year-olds have won the last nine renewals of this contest and I fully expect the likes of HYDRANGEA and ARABIAN HOPE to represent the vintage to good effect for their famous connections.  Third spot could go to Urban Fox at around the 10/1 mark from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: Ten of the sixteen market leaders have claimed Placepot positions to date, statistics which include five winners.

Record of the two course winners in the 'Duke of Cambridge': 

1/2—Hydrangea (soft)

1/3—Urban Fox (good to firm)

 

4.20: Four and five-year-olds have won 16 of the 17 renewals of this Group 1 Prince Of Wales’s Stakes event since the turn of the Millennium and the trend will be extended this year as Desert Encounter (the only other runner outside of the relevant horses) surely has little chance of prevailing. John Gosden enjoyed a sparkling day yesterday but he will be looking for compensation for the defeat of inmate Jack Hobbs in this event twelve months ago.  The 2/1 favourite folded like the proverbial pack of cards that day, though stable representative Cracksman will be more like a 4/7 chance today with ‘Frankie’ boasting definite claims of extending his lead as top jockey at the meeting after his treble yesterday.  Dettori has now ridden 59 Royal Ascot winners, scoring at least once in 23 years of his glittering career.  Surely only POET’S WORD can be given a chance against the Gosden/Dettori bandwagon.

Favourite factor:  Seven of the last 21 favourites have won, whilst eight of the last eleven market leaders have reached the frame.

Record of the three course winners in the feature race on the card: 

1/1—Cracksman (soft)

13—Desert Encounter (good to firm)

1/1—Hawkbill (soft)

 

5.00: 15 of the last 20 winners of the Royal Hunt Cup have carried weights of 9-1 or less whilst four-year-olds have won seven of the last eleven contests.  Five-year-olds have won three of the other five renewals since 2005.  Six of the first eight horses home four years were drawn 22 or higher in a 28 strong field on fast ground, whilst the other two places were filled by runners emerging from stall numbers 14 & 16.  Last year’s 25/1 winner Zhui Feng was the second horse mentioned in despatches but Amanada Perrett’s raider runs from trap two this time around. Pat Dobbs is sure to take them along at a decent clip on the far side, though preference is for the draw/vintage/weight trends to pay dividends again via the likes of SENIORITY (drawn 30), SETTLE FOR BAY (22), CAPE BYRON (25) and MEDAHIM (28).  The reserve nominations are MUKALAL (32) and KYNREN (11).

Favourite factor:  Only five of the last 24 market leaders have claimed Placepot positions (one winner--nine years ago).

Record of the four course winners in the Royal Hunt Cup: 

1/5—Zhul Feng (good to firm)

1/1—Cape Byron (soft)

2/5—Raising Sand (good & Good to soft)

1/1—Bless Him (good to firm)

Draw statistics for the last eleven renewals of the race (most recent result listed first) + SP details:

26-22-18-11 (29 ran-good to firm) – 25/1 – 16/1 – 66/1 – 20/1

4-26-20-10 (28 ran-soft) – 10/1-8/1-14/1-20/1

11-19-10-21 (30 ran-good to soft) – 8/1-9/1-16/1-25/1

33-14-23-29 (28 ran-good to firm) – 20/1-14/1-33/1-14/1

6-2-10-7 (28 ran-good to firm) – 33/1-40/1-50/1-25/1

33-18-21-13 (30 ran-good) – 16/1-33/1-50/1-66/1

24-30-25-14 (28 ran-good) – 12/1-7/1*-20/1-33/1

11-12-2-5 (29 ran-good to firm) – 28/1-12/1-12/1-12/1

33-29-30-13 (25 ran-good to firm) – 4/1*-25/1-9/1-16/1

27-30-26-25 (29 ran-good to firm) – 25/1-10/1-25/1-33/1

17-12-27-1 (26 ran-good to firm) – 9/1-16/1-50/1-17/2

The average priced winner during this study period: 13/1

Average priced placed horse: 18/1

Draw conclusions:

Horses drawn 1-15: 4 winners – 15 placed

Horses drawn 16+: 7 winners – 19 placed

If you fancy playing the forecast/Tricast wagers, it might prove best to perm high numbered horses looking at recent results, irrespective of the form lines!

On good to firm ground in 2009 & 2008 respectively, these odds were realised:

Exacta forecasts: 159/1 & 303/1.  In 2009, the Tricast paid 366/1 despite the favourite winning, whilst the Trifecta in 2008 paid 6,119/1.  Those were the figures I offered last year before the Exacta forecast paid £559.90 on fast ground twelve months ago, the first two horses home having emerged from stalls 16 & 22.

 

5.35: 28 of the last 42 available Placepot positions (67%) have been claimed by horses in single odds figures, despite the fact that favourites had a poor recent record in the contest before the 2013 market leader prevailed.  11 of the last 15 winners have carried a maximum weight of 9-1, though three of the last four results have bucked that trend. Upwards and onward in positive mode as much as is humanly possible in another daunting renewal of the Jersey Stakes.  Surprisingly perhaps, I looked at this race first, which suggests just how difficult the contest could be, even from a Placepot perspective with just three places up for grabs. My pin has fallen on the quartet of SOCIETY POWER, SYMBOLIZATION, PURSER and TABDEED.

Favourite factor:  The previous 11 favourites had all been beaten before the 9/2 market leader obliged in 2013.  Things seemed to have taken a turn for the better as the two 9/2 joint favourites four years ago filled the forecast positions before results returned to negative type in each of the following two years before the 2/1 marker leader prevailed twelve months ago. Ten of the relevant market leaders claimed Placepot positions during the study period.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale (Jersey Stakes): 

1/1—Mukalal (good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 7th June

SANDOWN – JUNE 7

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

201: £53.90 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 85.8% units went through – 8/1 & 1/2*

Race 2: 27.1% of the remaining units when through – 10/3 & 6/1 (6/5)

Race 3: 23.7% of the remaining units went through – 8/1 – 9/2 -16/1 (3/1)

Race 4: 51.9% of the remaining units went through – 5/2 & 7/2 (9/4)

Race 5: 87.2% of the remaining units went through – 4/1 – 9/4* - 6/1

Race 6: 54.3% of the units secured the dividend – 9/4* - 11/4 – 16/1

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Sandown: 

Leg 1 (5.55): 3 (Heartwarming) & 9 (Satisfying)

Leg 2 (6.25): 7 (Manor Park), 2 (Sharja Silk) & 1 (Ghostwatch)

Leg 3 (7.00): 6 (George Villiers) & 7 (Mashaheer)

Leg 4 (7.35): 7 (Jack Regan), 3 (Infastructure) & 2 (Corgi)

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Leg 5 (8.05): 1 (Cross Counter) & 4 (Al Muffrih)

Leg 6 (8.40): 11 (Railport Dolly), 13 (Chantresse) & 5 (Fondest)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

5.55: To commence, I should point out that there are no course winners at Sandown this evening, just in case you thought I had forgotten to include the service today!  Upwards and onward by suggesting that it’s worth noting that HEARTWARMING was withdrawn from a race at Nottingham at the back end of last month on account of the soft ground, despite having been backed on the exchanges prior to being taken out of the contest.  Clive Cox looks sure to go ahead with his Showcasing filly here as she has no other entries at the time of writing, notwithstanding tonight’s ground which should just about be perfect for racing on the level.  SATISFYING is the only rival to be standing up against the projected favourite on the exchanges, with just threepenny and sixpenny bits around for ZAPLA.  That said, that is more than is being spent on Sir Michael Stoute’s Dubawi filly Vivionn who will surely need a distance of ground before beginning to show the best of her potential.  Against that however, we should observe that the dam (Giant’s Play) was only beaten ‘three parts’ at the first time of asking on Kempton’s all weather surface.

Favourite factor: Last year’s 1/3 favourite was beaten when securing a Placepot position, flanked by horses which were returned at 8/1 and 5/1.

 

6.25: A ‘dual purpose’ trainer (Anthony Honeyball) won the first running of this event twelve months ago and it could be the turn of Alan King to follow suit, with Alan proving so successful with three-year-old stayers in the making these last few years.  Alan saddles MANOR PARK here with his progressive Medicean gelding now stepping up two and a half furlong in trip, whereby nothing can be taken as read prior to flag fall.  Alan has proved himself to be a good judge at this level however and Martin Harley’s mount should be the one in the field to bustle up Charlie Appleby’s projected market leader GHOSTWATCH.  Not the only horse to have endured traffic problems at Chester last time out, GHOSTWATCH has been made favourite on three of his four assignments to date, only scoring on one occasion thus far.  The other potential winner in the field according to the gospel of yours truly is SHARJA SILK who was doing all his best work at the finish over twelve furlongs at Ascot the last day.  The additional quarter of a mile should certainly suit Roger Varian’s Dubawi colt.

Favourite factor: Last year’s biggest favourite casualty on the Placepot front occurred when the 6/5 jolly failed to finish in the ‘short field’ frame in this event.  New readers might like to know that the term ‘short field’ relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.

 

7.00: Although there is some each way support for BAMBASTIC coming in as light begins to appear in the sky over Bristol this morning, this race should chiefly concern GEORGE VILLIERS and MASHAHEER in a contest which is likely to produce several future winners (well worth recording).  The main pair are marginally listed in order of preference, though the market has already spoken up in favour of the latter named William Haggas representative.  That said, there was plenty of like about the win of GEORGE VILLIERS back in November at Kempton when shrugging off as many as seven rivals who all had chances in the last furlong.  ‘George’ led a long way from home and despite looking vulnerable when racing well wide of the far rail after the ‘cut away’, the Dubawi gelding showed great determination with the jockey not having to go for everything close home.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 3/1 market leader finished nearer last than first (ninth of eleven contenders) when over 76% of the remaining Placepot units in leg three went up in smoke.

 

7.35: I tend to find that I have better luck with Amanda Perrett’s runners at each way prices whereby I am overlooking the chance of Desert Path in favour of JACK REGAN, INFASTRUCTURE and CORGI in a typically fascinating Sandown event.  There is no surprise that this race has already lost its original ‘dead eight’ stats as Sandown hosts more six/seven runners races (under both codes) than any other track in the land, or so my experience tells me, invariably leading to great Placepot puzzles on the majority of occasions.

Favourite factor: Over half of the live units made it through to the penultimate leg twelve months ago, despite the (9/4) market leader finishing out with the washing.  The fact that the second and third favourites filled another ‘short field frame’ helped the majority of ‘Potters’ out twelve months ago.

 

8.05: Another classic encounter of the Sandown kind, albeit I am playing on words to a fashion with CROSS COUNTER making plenty of appeal given the ‘8.6’ quote on the exchanges overnight.  What has to be taken into account however, is that Charlie Appleby’s three-year-old is asked to give seven pounds to AL MUFFRIH whereby the top weight will only be backed by yours truly from a win and a Placepot perspective.  10-1 is a heavy burden for one so young, which is why I will probably pass up the each way option as I cannot believe that William Buick will be hard on the Teofilo gelding if his chance of winning the race has gone.  I can’t help myself putting Charlie’s raider in the mix though, alongside the Sea The Stars foal AL MUFFRIH.  Elwazir also has plenty of scope for improvement holding definite Placepot claims.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Sandown card.

 

8.40: Only three-year-olds can be seriously taken into account in these mixed vintage handicaps at this time of year, especially in the case of a ‘fillies’ only event.  CHANTRESSE is a northern challenger to consider here (see favourite stats below) given that the somewhat unusual nine furlong trip could play to her strengths.  RAILPORT DOLLY is another in the field that could benefit for this type of distance, whilst the Placepot chance for FONDEST is there for all to see, albeit the slightly cramped 9/4-5/2 odds on offer at the time of writing dilute confidence in backing the James Fanshawe raider, albeit the trainer has been back among the winners of late after a lean period.  Just one winner in May via 35 runners should emphasize my point.

Favourite factor: Last year’s (northern trained) 9/4 favourite duly obliged for the Mark Johnston team and plenty of Mark’s followers.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 30th May

NOTTINGHAM – MAY 30

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £158.70 (6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 47.1% units went through – 16/1 – 5/1 – 4/1*

Race 2: 38.3% of the remaining units when through – 4/1 & 7/1 (5/2)

Race 3: 44.4% of the remaining units went through – 15/8* & 6/1

Race 4: 55.1% of the remaining units went through – 9/4* & 6/1

Race 5: 22.4% of the remaining units went through – 11/1 – 16/1 – 7/2 (13/8)

Race 6: 46.6% of the units secured the dividend – 2/1* & 7/1

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Nottingham: 

Leg 1 (2.20): 14 (Sabia Sabai), 8 (Heartwarming) & 15 (She Can Boogie)

Leg 2 (2.50): 6 (Nuns Walk) & 1 (Island Of Life)

Leg 3 (3.20): 3 (Autumn Leaves) & 1 (Fille De Reve)

Leg 4 (3.50): 5 (Repercussion), 6 (Zwayyan) & 7 (Daira Prince)

Leg 5 (4.20): 10 (Time To Sea), 5 (Fisher Green) & 2 (Fanfair)

Leg 6 (4.50): 1 (River Glades) & 3 (Sassie)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

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2.20: Tom Dascombe was quite keen on SHE CAN BOOGIE earlier in the year but having suffered a slight setback in her work, it will be interesting to see how the Dandy Man filly has ‘recovered’. While on the subject of juveniles, I should just offer a pointer from yesterday whereby you can put a line through the effort of Gracious Dane who was greener than the grass at Leicester yesterday, as the market indicated.  Back to this event by suggesting that SABAI SABAI and HEARTWARMING have had the jungle drums beating in their respective ‘neck of the woods’ for a while now.  CAPLA ROCK sets the standard thus far, though the bar is not set that high and it would be a tad disappointing if at least one of the three newcomers mentioned in dispatches failed to get on terms at the business end of the contest.

Favourite factor: Four of the five favourites have secured Placepot positions via four renewals thus far, statistics which include one (7/4**) winner.

 

2.50: Although only three of Tim Easterby’s last fifteen runners have won, investors would have made a half decent level stake profit during the period, notwithstanding three of Tim’s other runners having finished in the frame at each way prices for good measure.  Tom saddles NUNS WALK with claims here, with connections probably having most to fear from other four-year-olds such as ISLAND OF LIFE and (possibly) MELONADE.  Although we have hardly established a trend as such following just two renewals, four-year-olds come to the gig on a hat trick.  Last year’s winner Socialites Red looks to have a little more to do today.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 3/1 favourite duly obliged, though detectives are still combing the area for the 5/2 market leader from last year which was sunk without trace.

Record of the two course winners in the second race:

2/5—Socialites Red (2 x good)

2/4—Sitar (2 x good to soft)

 

3.20: Ten of the eleven winners in as many years have carried a minimum burden of 9-1, statistics which produce seven qualifiers on this occasion.  Clive Cox has started the season well which is invariably the case and aside from Heartwarming in the opening event, the popular trainers saddled AUTUMN LEAVES here boasting definite claims following a nice win at Salisbury last back end at the third time of asking.  Odds of 10/3 are available in a couple of places and win, lose or draw, I doubt that price will get bigger as the day wears on. We have to take it on trust that the Helmet filly will see out the additional furlong at full speed but given that she won on this ground in August, I’m willing to take that chance.   That said, the nine strong field is packed with promising fillies in an absorbing contest, the pick of which today (not necessarily for the season as a whole) could prove to be HARVEST DAY and (particularly) FILLE DE REVE.

Favourite factor: Six of the last nine renewals have been secured by market leaders during which time, the biggest priced winner was returned at 7/1.  Ten of the eleven favourites have claimed Placepot positions during the study period.

 

3.50: Five-year-olds have won three of the four renewals to date and with REPERCUSSION attracting money overnight, I’m tilting towards the chance of the Charlie Fellowes raider minute by minute.  Richard Kingscote boasts a 50% record for the trainer for good measure, albeit following just two opportunities in the saddle.  Other contenders worthy of a passing interest include ZWAYYAN (the other five-year-old in the field) and DAIRA PRINCE, a winner of three of five handicaps contested thus far. The declarations of Tricorn and Seniority add plenty of interest to proceedings.

Favourite factor: Three of the four market leaders have finished in the frame, statistics which include two (13/8 & 9/4) gold medallists.

Record of the course winner in the fourth event on the card:

1/2—Daira Prince (good to firm)

 

4.20: Trainer John Butler complicates matters by declaring three runners in the field, with ‘early money’ seemingly suggesting that TIME TO SEA is the pick of the trio.  Roger Fell is rapidly becoming one of my favourite ‘unsung’ handlers and FISHER GREEN could go well on his first run for the yard this afternoon.  Other each way types to consider include seven time winner WOODY BAY and FANFAIR.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Nottingham card.

Record of the two course winners in the fifth event on the card:

1/9—Woody Bay (good to firm)

1/2—Torch (good to firm)

 

4.50: Eight of the nine winners in the Placepot finale have carried a minimum burden of 8-11, though I have only left the stats in for your records as all seven runners qualify via the weight trend this time around.  I’m sticking with RIVER GLADES and his Wetherby form over two of these rivals, despite the fact that Mark Johnston’s top weight let the side down away from turf the last day.  Mark has a knack of reviving his inmates like few other trainers can match.  SASSIE is slightly preferred to SOTOMAYER as the main threat.

Favourite factor: Six clear market leaders and one joint favourite have prevailed via just nine renewals.  Nine of the ten favourites secured Placepot positions for good measure.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Stat of the Day, 30th May 2018

Tuesday's Runner was...

4.40 Lingfield : Roundabout Magic @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 3/1 (Held up, headway when not clear run and switched right inside final furlong, ran on, not quite reach front pair and beaten by approx 1/4 of  a length)

Next up is Wednesday's...

8.10 Ripon :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Pipers Note @ 6/1 or 5/1 BOG*** 

A 10-runner, Class 3, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 6f on Good To Firm ground worth £9338 to the winner... 

Why?

OK, so we've an 8 yr old gelding who at first glance looks even more out of form than I am, but bear with the both of us, please! Pipers Note won this race last year off a mark of 95 before winning again 11 days later off a revised OR of 98.

Sadly to say, he's been in the grip of the handicapper ever since and with no wins from 11 efforts in the 49 weeks since that win, his mark has now dropped to 94 suggesting he could very well be weighted to win again.

In addition to a falling handicap mark, today's conditions look ideal for him to improve upon an already decent record on the Flat which stands at 10 wins from 48 (20.8% SR) for profits of 32.2pts at an ROI of 67.7%, from which the following relevant race factors are at play today...

  • in handicaps : 8/36 (22.2%) for 26pts (+72.3%)
  • over 6f : 6/27 (22.2%) for 19.6pts (+72.7%)
  • 6-20 dslr : 7/26 (26.9%) for 28.13pts (+108.2%)
  • OR 85-99 : 7/25 (28%) for 32pts (+128%)
  • at 9/1 and shorter : 10/24 (41.7%) for 56.2pts (+234.2%)
  • 7-11 runners : 7/15 (46.7%) for 35.9pts (+239.2%)
  • Ripon : 6/15 (40%) for 32.1pts (+213.7%)
  • Class 3 : 8/13 (61.5%) for 40.5pts (+311.6%)
  • Ripon 6f C&D : 5/13 (38.5%) for 26.55pts (+204.2%)
  • dropping down a class : 4/12 (33.3%) for 18.8pts (+156.7%)
  • Good to Firm : 4/12 (33.3%) for 18.65pts (+155.4%)
  • and Ripon 6f C&D at Class 3 : 4/4 (100%) for 21.6pts (+540.3%)

James P Sullivan takes the ride today and since the start of the 2013 season, he is 9/72 (12.5% SR) for 103.4pts (+143.6% ROI) on Ruth Carr's Ripon handicappers, amongst which he is...

  • 5/24 (20.8%) for 121pts (+504%) at Class 3
  • 5/23 (21.7%) for 113.84pts (+495%) since the start of the 2017 campaign
  • and 4/6 966.6%) for 124.64pts (+2077.3%) at Class 3 since the start of the 2017 campaign, including winning this race on Pipers Note last year at 15/2.

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Pipers Note @ 6/1 or 5/1 BOG***  which was available from Bet365 and Betbright respectively (I'll use the lower price in my results) at 5.25pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 8.10 Ripon

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Sunday 20th May

RIPON – MAY 20 

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £26.60 (6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 placed)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 86.6% units went through – 11/2 & 1/2*

Race 2: 36.7% of the remaining units when through – 9/2 – 18/1 – 4/1*

Race 3: 33.8% of the remaining units went through – 11/4* - 9/1 – 28/1

Race 4: 53.9% of the remaining units went through – 2/1* - 15/2 – 7/1

Race 5: 61.6% of the remaining units went through – 13/2 – 9/4* - 10/1

Race 6: 76.9% of the units secured the dividend – 11/8* - 10/1 – 5/2

 

Sunday's Placepot permutation at Ripon: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 5 (Coolagh Magic) & 1 (Azor Ahai)

Leg 2 (2.20): 6 (Sir Derrick), 13 (Erastus) & 1 (Cardaw Lily)

Leg 3 (2.55): 5 (We Are The World) 1 (Starlight Mystery) & 2 (Indomeneo)

Leg 4 (3.30): 1 (Mutamaded) & 2 (Trading Point)

Leg 5 (4.00): 4 (Magical Dreamer), 1 (Show Stealer) & 7 (Maureb)

Leg 6 (4.30): 1 (Tigre Du Terre) & 3 (Gift Of Raaj)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

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1.50: This race lacks the class of the event twelve month ago which was won by a horse which went on the finish less than three lengths behind the winner of Royal Ascot’s Coventry Stakes.  Upwards and onward however by suggesting that COOLAGH MAGIC might be the type to score at the first time of asking, chiefly at the expense of AZOR AHAI in all probability.  Desert Lantern looks booked for third spot as there has been a lack of interest (early doors) in Dark Havana from Karl Burke’s yard.  Any money for Karl’s Havana Gold raider would add interest to proceedings.

Favourite factor: The inaugural race was split into two divisions, producing a successful 4/6 market leader alongside an 11/4 favourite which missed out on a Placepot position in a ‘short field’ event. Last year’s 1/2 favourite found one too good when finishing in the frame.  New readers might like to know that the term ‘short field’ relates to 5/6/7 runner events in which only the first two horses qualify from Placepot and each way perspectives.

 

2.20: High on numbers but short on class, this Class 6 race lives up to its billing unfortunately, as was the case twelve months ago, though at least the 9/2 winner was short listed by yours truly.  I can report money for SIR DERRICK overnight which is an ‘edge’ to a fashion I guess, though it took less than a king’s ransom to set the gambling wheels in motion I’ll wager.  I’ll take any help I can get however, whereby Tm Easerby’s raider is the first name on the team sheet ahead of Ruth Carr’s pair, namely ERASTUS and CARDAW LILY.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 4/1 favourite found one too good when securing a Placepot position.

 

2.55:  These three-year-old handicap races begin to take on more significance over the next few weeks leading up to Epsom/Royal Ascot with the majority of the runners now having had their respective seasonal debut appearances.  Mark Johnston is rarely out of the headlines north of Watford and it’s worth reporting that four of Mark’s last runners have won, whereby I’m offering an each way chance to STARLIGHT MYSTERY who tops the weights.  WE ARE THE WORLD and INDOMENEO are added into the Placepot equation.  Sylvestre De Sousa rides the latter named raider for Richard Fahey.  Although the pair have only teamed up to a 16% success rate down the years, they have produced level stake profits of 16 points via the relevant six winners.

Favourite factor: All four market leaders have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include three (11/4, 11/4 & 6/4) winners.

Record of the two course winners in the third race:

1/1—Starlight Mystery (good to firm)

1/1—Indomeneo (soft)

 

3.30: Four-year-olds have won three of the last renewals (and six of the last ten) whereby the chance of TRADING POINT (attempting a hat trick here) is very much respected.  That said, David O’Meara’s representative runs into MUTAMADED who is defending an unbeaten 3/3 record at Ripon and with Ruth Carr boasting level stake profits of 68 points down the years at this venue, I’m siding with her Arcano gelding.

Favourite factor: Eight of the 14 favourites (four winners) have snared Placepot positions via eleven renewals to date.  Six of the gold medallists have been returned at 4/1 or less, accompanied by three 16/1 chances alongside 10/1 & 15/2 gold medallists.

Record of the two course winners in the fourth contest:

3/3—Mutamaded (2 x good & soft)

1/2—Fayez (good)

 

4.00: Four and five-year-olds have a good record in this contest (the score stands at 5-6 via 15 renewals), whereby one horse from each vintage will do for starters, namely MGICAL DREAMER and SHOW STEALER, the pair being listed in order of preference.  MAUREB is starting to attract money as I begin to close out the column whereby Tony Coyle’s Excellent Art mare is entered into the Placepot mix.  The reserve nomination is awarded to Pennypot Lane.

Favourite factor: Three favourites have scored via 15 renewals to date, whilst eight market leaders failed to finish in the frame.

Record of the two  course winners in the fifth race on the card:

2/4—Pennypot Lane (good & good to soft)

1/2—Silver Starlight (good)

 

4.30: TIGRE DU TERRE finished second in a warm Listed event as a juvenile and has already proved that he has ‘trained on’ whereby this should be a formality for Richard Hannon’s Le Havre colt.  Richard secured a 23/1 double on last year’s corresponding card but is content to send Silvestre’s mount on his lonesome for the long journey today.  GIFT OF RAAJ should win the battle for secondary honours, albeit at a respectable distance.

Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is a new race on the Ripon card.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday 11th May

CHESTER – MAY 11

 

Corresponding toteplacepot dividends during the last seven years:

2017: £11.30 (6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced)

2016: £22.70 (6 favourites - 1 winner - 4 placed - 1 unplaced)

2015: £900.10 (6 favourites: No winners - 2 placed - 4 unplaced)

2014: £545.20 (7 favourites: 2 winners & 5 unplaced)

2013: £129.80 (6 favourites: 2 winners & 4 unplaced)

2012: £5,565.50 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)

2011: £64.10 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)

Average Placepot dividend: £1,034.10 - 43 favourites - 13 winners - 11 placed - 19 unplaced

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:

Race 1: 76.5% units went through – 13/8* & 4/1

Race 2: 84.6% of the remaining units when through – 4/5* - 5/1 – 25/1

Race 3: 29.9% of the remaining units went through – 7/1 – 7/2 – 10/1 (3/1)

Race 4: 70.3% of the remaining units went through – 7/2 – 2/1* - 15/2

Race 5: 58.7% of the remaining units went through – 11/8* & 7/2

Race 6: 80.3% of the units secured the dividend – 6/4* - 11/4 – 12/1

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Chester: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 1 (Arcanada), 2 (South Seas), 15 (Mickey) & 12 (Penwortham)

Leg 2 (2.25): 2 (Eminent) & 1 (Convey)

Leg 3 (3.00): 12 (Pivoine), 2 (Dark Red) & 1 (Titi Makfi)

Leg 4 (3.35): 6 (Magic Circle), 9 (Who Dares Wins), 8 (My Reward) & 7 (Fun Mac)

Leg 5 (4.05): 1 (Kachy) & 5 (Growl)

Leg 6 (4.40): 5 (Kazawi) & 7 (Jabbaar)

Suggested stake: 384 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.50: Four-year-olds have won seven of the last 17 renewals (clean sweep 1-2-3 in two of the last ten years - forecast landed three years ago), whilst 13 of the last 15 winners have carried weights of 8-10 or more.  If we bring the stats right up to date however, five-year-olds have secured five of the last eight renewals, with the two vintages having dominated the event down the years.  Despite his stall position out wide, money has come in for ARCANADA overnight and with Tom Dascombe’s raider possessing ticks in both of the (age/weight) trend boxes, I’ll join in by including the Arcano gelding in my Placepot mix.  Similar comments apply to SOUTH SEAS who being slight better drawn in stall nine would be my idea of the each way play in the opening contest.  From the vintage stats, I’m also offering win and place chances to MICKEY and PENWORTHAM.

Favourite factor: Six favourites have scored during the last 20 years, whilst nine of the fifteen favourites have claimed Placepot positions via the last thirteen renewals.

Draw factor (seven and a half furlongs – most recent renewal listed first):

8-2-4 11 ran-good to firm)

4-2-1 (11 ran-good)

5-14-8 (8 ran-soft)

1-13-8 (10 ran-soft)

2-1-13 (10 ran-good to soft)

3-1-6 (9 ran-soft)

12-5-15 (14 ran-good to firm)

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7-12-13 (11 ran-good to soft)

6-16-10 (14 ran--good to firm)

6-4-1 (11 ran-good)

5-6-3 (12 ran-good)

10-4-8 (9 ran-good to soft)

13-5-9-10 (18 ran-good to soft)

1-4-3-7 (18 ran-good to soft)

4-3-2-10 (16 ran-good to firm)

2-14-3-17 (17 ran-good to firm)

16-6-5-7 (18 ran-good to firm)

3-1-13-9 (17 ran-good)

7-5-4-13 (17 ran-good to firm)

11-10-4-14 (18 ran-good to firm)

 

2.25 (Huxley Stakes): Four-year-olds have won nine of the last sixteen contests whereby EMINENT is the first name on the team sheet, albeit Martyn Meade’s Frankel colt is too short for me at around the 8/11 mark to become involved with from a win perspective.  Sir Michael Stoute attempts to win his seventh Huxley Stakes winner having declared CONVEY though that said, only one vintage representative has scored in the last nineteen years.  I wonder if it’s purely coincidental that the winner Maraahel hailed from Michael’s stable?

Favourite factor: 17 of the last 19 market leaders have secured Placepot positions (11 winners).  13 of the last 19 gold medallists scored at odds of 100/30 or less.

 

3.00: Four-year-olds have won five of the last seven renewals, with vintage raiders coming to this year’s gig on a four-timer.  POVOINE and TITI MAKFI are the only relevant raiders this time around, with the pair listed in marginal order of preference on account of the draw (three over ten).  Ed Dunlop’s Tadleel was a poor flop for us yesterday having crawled out of the stalls from a wide draw which made it impossible to become involved at the business end of proceedings.  Ryan Moore takes the rdde about stable companion DARK RED here with obvious Placepot credentials at the very least.

Favourite factor: Ten of the fourteen favourites have reached the frame via thirteen renewals, statistics which include three (11/2, 9/4 & 10/11) winners.

 

3.35 (Chester Cup): This is one of the few ‘staying’ races on the entire racing calendar that is dependent upon the draw (to a fashion) and we ignore the stall positions at our potential peril.  Low numbers invariably rule the roost as eight of the last eleven results (see below) confirm.  Six-year-olds have won this event five times during the last decade, whilst ten of the last twelve winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-2.  Putting the stats and facts together offers a ‘short list’ of MAGIC CIRCLE, WHO DARES WINS AND MY REWARD.  WHO DARES WINS would seemingly have plenty to do from stall fifteen but Ryan Moore’s 44% record when riding for Alan King via seven winners convinces yours truly that it would be foolish to leave him out of the equation. The reserve nomination is awarded to FUN MAC who runs here from a better mark than when finishing third last year from an inferior draw.

Favourite factor: Three of the last nineteen favourites have won the Chester Cup, whilst eight of the twenty three market leaders have reached the frame during the study period.

Draw factor: (eighteen and a half furlongs):

2-3-13-7 (17 ran-good)

4-15-9-12 (17 ran-good)

11-9-7-3 (17 ran-good to soft)

4-11-2-5 (17 ran-good)

2-7-11-14 (17-good to firm)

13-8-19-4 (16 ran-soft)

1-3-16-19 (17 ran-good to firm)

5-16-6-1 (17 ran--good)

4-8-7-6 (16 ran--good to firm)

13-11-8 (17 ran-good to firm)

1-2-11-13 (17 ran-good to firm)

15-8-11-2 (17 ran-good to soft)

4-18-11-5 (17 ran-good to soft)

2-3-15-4 (16 ran-good to firm)

7-8-6-15 (18 ran-good to firm)

5-4-16-13 (17 ran-good to firm)

4-3-17-5 (18 ran-good)

13-16-9-8 (16 ran-good to firm)

9-10-3-17 (18 ran-good)

 

4.05: Five-year-olds have won four of the five renewals to date, with a 25/1 chance being responsible for preventing total domination in the contest thus far.  KACHY is the lone (but worthy) representative on this occasion, with Tom Dascombe’s raider as short as 5/4 in places at the time of writing.  Such cramped odds overnight made it possible to obtain an each way play on GROWL, though those odds are disappearing as I near the end of Thursday’s offering.

Favourite factor: Four of the five favourites have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include two (9/4 & 6/4) winners.

Draw factor (seven furlongs):

3-2-1 (9 ran-good)

5-1-7 (8 ran-good to soft)

3-4-6 (9 ran-good)

3-2 (7 ran-good to firm)

6-7 (7 ran-soft)

 

4.35: Four and five-year-olds have equally shared the four renewals to date, with KAZAWI and JABBAR expected to land out third Chester Placepot this week, albeit slight losses were incurred via the permutation yesterday.

Favourite factor: Three of the four market leaders have secured Placepot positions, stats which include one successful (10/3) favourite.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 28th April

SANDOWN – APRIL 28

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £248.00 (6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:

Race 1: 40.1% units went through – 5/1* - 11/2 – 16/1

Race 2: 30.7% of the remaining units when through – 9/4 & 15/8*

Race 3: 78.9% of the remaining units went through – 3/10* (Win only)

Race 4: 11.3% of the remaining units went through – 40/1 – 6/1 20/1 (9/2)

Race 5: 27.4% of the remaining units went through – 7/2 – 8/1 – 16/1 (5/2)

Race 6: 39.1% of the units secured the dividend – 3/1* - 7/1 – 14/1

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Sandown: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 16 (Notre Ami), 13 (Going Gold), 2 (Highway One O One) & 10 (Show On The Road)

Leg 2 (2.25): 1 (Top Notch) & 6 (O O Seven)

Leg 3 (3.00): 1 (Altior) & 2 (Ar Mad)

Leg 4 (3.35): 11 (Carole’s Destrier), 17 (Rathlin Rose), 6 (Missed Approach), 13 (Minella Daddy) & 19 (The Young Master)

Leg 5 (4.05): 5 (Call Me Lord) & 3 (Wholestone)

Leg 6 (4.40): 11 (Silverhow), 10 (Ramonex) & 1 (Geordie Des Champs)

Suggested stake: 480 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.50: On a day in which his father’s name is remembered on one of the later races on the card, Nick Gifford would obviously like to secure a prize at this final meeting of the season and it’s worth noting that his representative NOTRE AMI is the only course winner in the line up.  It is raining as dawn breaks here in Bristol and yes, that message will give connections more confidence if the wet stuff moves onto Sandown not too late in the day.  Others of interest here include HIGHWAY ONE O ONE, SHOW ON THE ROAD and GOING GOLD.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Sandown card.

Record of the course winner in the opening event:

1/2—Notre Ami (heavy)

 

2.25: It’s shame that Philip Hobbs could not find a decent representative in this event, the trainer (via Menorah) having won all four renewals of this event.  Upwards and onward by noting that three top trainers have all saddled a brace of representatives to complete the field of six starters, namely Nicky Henderson, Paul Nicholls and Tom George.  One way or the other, champion trainer Nicky Henderson is taken to snare the contest with TOP NOTCH and O O SEVEN who looks a little too big at 18/1 with BetBright this morning.

Favourite factor: Three of the four favourites thus far have gained Placepot positions (one winner), commemorating the great name of John Lawrence, or Lord Oaksey as he was better known in ‘recent’ years.

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Record of the course winners in the second contest:

1/1—Top Notch (soft)

1/2—O O Seven (soft)

 

3.00: Eight-year-olds have won five of the last ten renewals and shall we take it for granted that by 3.40 this afternoon, that ratio will have improved to 6/11 with last year’s winner ALTIOR having been declared.  It is (literally) impossible to oppose Nico De Boinville’s mount who has won all 13 races over obstacles this far.  Only a serious mistake can blemish that record I’ll wager in which case, AR MAD (if back to his best) might best take advantage if Altior fails to complete the course.

Favourite factor: All 16 winners have scored at 9/1 or less to date, whilst eleven market leaders have reached the frame, statistics which include five winners.

Record of the course winners in the Grade 1 Celebration Chase:

2/2—Altior (good & good to soft)

2/4—Ar Mad (2 x good to soft)

1/4—Special Tiara (good)

 

3.35: I was at Sandown in 1970 to watch Richard Pitman boot home Royal Toss in what was known as the 'Whitbread' for many years and the main reason for offering you that insight into my ‘dodgy upbringing’ was that Royal Toss was the first of 14 eight-year-old winners in ‘recent’ times.  If we add the 13 victories from nine-year-olds, we can quickly deduce that these vintages have accounted for 27/48 victories or if you prefer, 56.3% of the contests down the (relevant) years.  31 of the last 36 winners (86.1%) have carried a maximum burden of 11-2.  Eight-year-olds have won five of the last fourteen contests and putting the stats and facts together produces a speculative ‘short list’ of CAROLE’S DESTRIER, RATHLIN ROSE, MISSED APPROACH, MINELLA DADDY and THE YOUNG MASTER.  The quintet is listed in order of preference at the time of writing.

Favourite factor: Nine of the last 27 market leaders have claimed Placepot positions (one winner) during the more recent study period, whilst ten of the last nineteen winners scored at odds of 14/1 or more.

Record of the course winners in the big handicap on the card:

1/5—Houblon Des Obeaux (good to soft)

1/4—Benbens (good to soft)

1/1—Carole’s Destrier (good to soft)

3/5—Rathlin Rose (2 x soft & good to soft)

1/2—The Young Master (good) – winner of this event in 2016

 

4.05: CALL ME LORD is asked to step up in trip but facing opponents that are struggling to find their best form of late, Nicky Henderson can saddle his third winner of this event in the last four years.  WHOLESTONE can be relied upon to give his usual gallant offering (probably without winning), whilst a victory for Lil Rockerfeller would be an apt winner on what usually turns out to be an emotional day.

Favourite factor: All three favourites have obliged to date at 9/4 (Nicky Henderson) and 15/8 & 7/4 (Paul Nicholls).

Record of the course winners in the fifth race:

2/3—Lil Rockerfella (good to soft & soft)

2/3—Call Me Lord (good & heavy)

 

4.40:  Seven-year-olds have won the last three (of just four) contests thus far, and I am expecting trend to be extended by the likes of SILVERHOW (offers plenty of value at 9/1 in places this morning), RAMONEX (can outrun his double figure price on the best of his form) and GEORDIE DES CHAMPS (Rebecca Curtis finally ending a wretched year in winning form of late).

Favourite factor: The toteplacepot finale rightly remembers the name of Josh Gifford.  Goodness knows what he and Terry Biddlecombe are up to as we wrap up the 2017/2018 NH season!  The entire racing world is that much poorer for the passing of two great names from the past, notwithstanding John Lawrence (in Lord Oaksey's previous guise) who is probably trying to bring the pair to order right now!  Only one of the four contests has produced a favourite to finish in the frame, which was last year’s 3/1 winner.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

2/8—Rayvin Black (soft & heavy)

1/3—Silverhow (soft)

 

Record of the course winners in the 7th (non Placepot) event at 5.15:

1/1--  Wait For Me (good) – won this race last year

1/1—Dashing Oscar (good to soft)

1/1—Soul Emotion )soft)

1/2—Landin (good)

1/1—Wolf Of Wendlesham (soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 19th April

NEWMARKET – APRIL 19 

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £33.80 (8 favourites – 4 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 59.4% units went through – 11/4* - 13/2 – 8/1

Race 2: 39.9% of the remaining units when through – 5/1 & 11/4** (11/4**)

Race 3: 77.4% of the remaining units went through – Evens* & 9/1

Race 4: 34.9% of the remaining units went through – 8/1 & 11/4 (9/4)

Race 5: 56.7% of the remaining units went through – 11/4** - 9/2 – 11/4**

Race 6: 59.4% of the units secured the dividend – 11/4* - 12/1 – 25/1

 

Thurday's Placepot permutation at Newmarket: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 7 (Captain Jameson), 5 (Consequences) & 6 (Dragons Tail)

Leg 2 (2.25): 8 (Karaginsky), 10 (Military Band) & 13 (Monoxide)

Leg 3 (3.00): 4 (Le Brivido) & 9 (Spirit Of Valour)

Leg 4 (3.35): 3 (Masar) & 4 (Roaring Lion)

Leg 5 (4.10): 13 (Sheika Reika), 4 (Improve) & 10 (Playfull Spirit)

Leg 6 (4.45): 2 (Nordic Lights), 3 (Argentello) & 5 (Bedouin’s Story)

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Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.50: I offered a big shout for last year’s 11/4 winner and am quietly confident that CAPTAIN JAMESON can reward each way investors this time around.  Trainer John Quinn did us a 12/1 favour at the corresponding fixture last year and though softer ground would have offered an added bonus, Jason Hart’s mount is expected to give us a good run for our collective monies, albeit stakes are lowered (to a fashion) because of his ‘recent’ gelding operation.  Not all the boys react as positively as some having had the ‘snip’!  Course and distance winner CONSEQUENCES is named as the main threat alongside DRAGONS TAIL who represents Tom Dascombe’s in-form yard.  For the record, eight winners during the last decade carried a maximum burden of 8-13 and both CAPTAIN JAMESON and DRAGONS TAIL qualify via the recent weight trend.

Favourite factor: Eight of the twelve favourites have secured Placepot positions during the eleven years, statistics which include six winners.

Record of the course winner in the opening race:

1/1—Consequences (good to firm)

 

2.25: Godolphin has secured three of the last four renewals (and four of the last seven) of the ‘Wood Ditton’ and the two horses sporting the famous blue colours are both expected to go close here, namely KARAGINSKY and MILITARY BAND.  The pair is listed in marginal order of preference with both Charlie Appleby and Saeed Bin Suroor having their horses in fine form at this moment in time.  That said, Charlie seemingly always has his runners in grand fettle – period!  Money for MONOXIDE would add interest to proceedings, especially as no trainer has saddled more winners that Martyn Meade on this final day of the Craven meeting during the last five years.  Martyn’s Epsom Derby entry might be put through his paces with more urgency than some I’ll wager, offering potential each way investors an interest at around the 16/1 mark this morning.

Favourite factor: 14 of the 24 favourites have secured Placepot positions (seven winners) during the 20 year study period.

 

3.00: Four-year-olds have won nine renewals during the last twenty years, whilst claiming 23 of the 58 available Placepot positions during the study period. The pair which dominated last year’s Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot could fill the forecast positions again here I guess, with LE BRIVIDO and SPIRIT OF VALOUR being the horses in question.  Aidan O’Brien saddled a welcome winner at Dundalk last night following nineteen consecutive losers, though I am not speaking ‘after the event’ you understand as I warned readers of Aidan’s form before racing commenced on Tuesday.  It’s not that Aidan’s runners are running deplorably you understand, they are simply not picking up to go on and win their races having been given every chance by their respective pilots.  For that reason, I’m adding SPIRIT OF VALOUR in the Placepot mix, albeit I expect Aidan’s War front colt to be held by the French representative again.  MAGICAL MEMORY won this race back in 2016 and it might be a tad too soon to write of his chance of winning another Group race just yet, whilst the second time of asking this season might not be a bad time to catch the six-year-old, especially with the Charlie Hills runners going well just now.  DREAM OF DREAMS would have entered the equation had the ground been as soft as it was earlier in the week.

Favourite factor: Four market leaders have prevailed (within the last thirteen years), whilst eleven of the twenty favourites have reached the frame during the (longer) study period.

Record of the course winners in the third race on the card:

2/2—Brando (good to firm & good to soft)

1/3—Magical Memory (good to soft)

 

3.35: Few trainers ‘tilt at windmills’ better than Peter Chapple-Hyam and when I offer that remark, I’m talking about 50/1 chances as well as what some media types class as outsider simply because a horse wins in double figures!  That said, even Peter might be overstepping the mark with his course and distance winner Just Brilliant here, though I can rarely (if ever) totally write of his runners at outrageous prices.  This does look to be a tough ask however, with ROARING LION and (particularly) MASAR having been declared to run.  The problem we ‘Potters’ have when looking at trial races like this is just how much is a horse going to be ‘pushed’ out if its winning chance has gone?  I’m aware that this is a comment which could be made for any fancied horse though in the case of potential ‘champions’ in the making, the scenario is extended without a shadow of a doubt.  That said, MASAR is likely to be ridden all the way to the jamstick given that connections have little to lose by taking on the hot favourite ROARING LION.  In case you thought that John Gosden’s market leader was ‘home and hosed’ before going into the stalls, I feel obligated to suggest that this is his first outing on what might turn out to be good ground by the time that flag fall arrives this afternoon.  All three victories have been recorded on ‘good to soft’, whilst his all-weather victory was on the slow side of standard at Kempton.  Food for thought?

Favourite factor: 12 of the 20 market leaders have snared Placepot positions during the study period, statistics which include eight winners.

Record of the course winners in the Craven Stakes:

1/1—Just Brilliant (good)

1/1—Roaring Lion (good to soft)

 

4.10: The dogs are barking harmoniously regarding the chance of SHEIKHA REIKA who represents Roger Varian who won with one of his four runners on the heath yesterday afternoon.  Money for the William Haggas newcomer IMPROVE would add much required interest to proceedings, whilst my trio against the remaining eleven contenders is completed by PLAYFULL SPIRIT.

Favourite factor: Eleven favourites during the last twelve years have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include four successful market leaders from a win perspective.

 

4.45: I guess it’s easy to suggest (this side of midnight) that the lads and lasses in the trade press office have a got a price seriously wrong in terms of the betting guide, though the 12/1 quoted for Saaed Bin Suroor’s BEDOUIN’S STORY was right out of the top draw of JK Rowling’s fictional bedtime reading material.  We might be lucky to secure half of those odds I’ll wager, albeit NORDIC LIGHTS and ARGENTELLO might still take the beating from a win perspective.

Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is a new ‘novice’ event with which to close out our favourite wager.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 30th September

NEWMARKET - SEPTEMBER 30

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £440.20 (6 favourites - 1 winner - 3 placed - 2 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Newmarket: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 4 (Nelson) & 6 (Roaring Lion)

Leg 2 (2.20): 3 (Clemmie) & 12 (Threading)

Leg 3 (2.55): 11 (Unfortunately), 7 (Hey Jonesy) & 12 (U S Navy Flag)

Leg 4 (3.35): 16 (Greenside), 6 (Linguistic), 13 (Chelsea Lad), 29 (Brorocco) & 8 (Big Country)

Leg 5 (4.10): 2 (Bye Bye Baby) & 1 (Altyn Orda)

Leg 6 (4.45): 9 (Clubbable), 2 (Exhort) & 3 (Time Change)

Suggested stake: 360 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.50: The fact that Aidan O’Brien’s Group winner NELSON meets his rivals here on level terms is an obvious pointer towards his chance, albeit ROARING LION could yet be anything.  Add MILDENBERGER into the mix and we have a race to savour for starters.  Although five years have passed without Aidan O’Brien having lifted the prize, five previous renewals have been secured by the Ballydoyle maestro down the years.

Favourite factor:  Seven favourites have won during the last 20 years, whilst 13 of the 24 market leaders reached the frame (exact science) during the study period.

 

2.20: Aidan O’Brien grabs centre stage again here, though it is a shame that Heartache does not line up against CLEMMIE in what had potentially looked a fascinating clash in the ‘Cheveley Park’.  Aidan secured a one-two in the race last year with a 25/1 chance beating an 11/2 stable companion, with the 4/6 favourite (Lady Aurelia) missing out on a Placepot position in a ‘short field’ contest.  CLEMMIE could be as short as 11/8 with Clive Cox having ‘pulled the plug’, though Mark Johnston’s unbeaten Exceed And Excel filly THREADING looks sure to down down with all guns blazing, should that scenario unfold.  Connections of THREADING would be quite happy if a rogue shower evolves though that potential ‘edge’ looks unlikely.  That said either way, CLEMMIE (brother of Churchill) looks to be a similarly progressive type and should take the beating. New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way & Placepot perspectives.

Favourite factor: Seven clear market leaders and one joint favourite have prevailed during the study period, whilst 12 of the 21 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions in the process.  Ten of the last eleven winners have scored at a top price of 4/1.

 

2.55: Three of the last six winners have scored at 25/1—25/1—22/1, notwithstanding the defeat of the 1/2 favourite (Ivawood) three years ago. Bookmakers will be rubbing their grubby hands together in anticipation of what looks to be a competitive (if not sparkling) renewal of the ‘Middle Park’.  Karl Burke has placed UNFORTUNATELY to brilliant effect in France on his last two assignments, Karl’s Society Rock representative having picked up Group 1 and Group 2 prizes across the channel of late.  With Karl having saddled plenty of winner in the south of the country this time as well, the trainer has been enjoying his travels this year and today could be another red letter day for the yard.  That said, I offer each way chances to HEY JONESY and U S NAVY FLAG, with both horses added into the Placepot equation.

Favourite factor: Four clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won the 'Middle Park' during the last twelve years, whilst eight of the fourteen favourites during the period secured toteplacepot positions.

 

3.35: 13 of the last 14 winners of the ‘Cambridgeshire’ have carried a maximum burden of 9-4.  Five of the first seven horses home in 2012 were drawn twenty or higher (the same ratio from stalls 17+ in 2013) and the draw stats below suggest unless the going is soft, horses from higher numbers tend to hold an edge.  That said, if a horse is to win from a low number this time around, LINGUISTIC (drawn 5/35) would be the call, given that John Gosden looks to have targeted this race for some time relating to his (good to soft) course winner.  Two horses possessing 2/2 ratios here on the Rowley Mile catch the eye, namely GREENSIDE (28) and CHELSEA LAD (10), with preference going to the first named Henry Candy raider on account of the draw. Both horses have won with moisture in the ground at the track however, whereby Chelsea Lad is not just included to make up the numbers.  BIG COUNTRY (17) and BROROCCO (33) should have the ground drying out in their favour (no rain for Newmarket today according to the radar at one o’clock this morning) from the side of the course that should have the edge.  Very Talented (3rd in the race last year - has not raced since) is offered up the the reserve nomination. Best of luck!

Favourite factor:  Four favourites have won the ‘Cambridgeshire’ in the last 19 years which is a respectable record given the competitive nature of this event.  Eight of the 24 market leaders have finished in the frame during the study period.

Draw factor--nine furlongs:

2016: 28-35-8-13 (31 ran-good to firm)

2015: 7-1-17-4 (34 ran-good)

2014: 11-28-14-10 (31 ran-good to firm)

2013: 4-28-3-20 (31 ran-good to firm)

2012: 21-7-2-12 (33 ran-good)

2011: 31-5-24-27 (32 ran-good to firm)

2010: 3-20-15-22 (35 ran-soft)

2009: 12-6-34-24 (32 ran-good to firm)

2008: 15-35-34-27 (28 ran-good to firm)

2007: 25-16-31-19 (34 ran-good to firm)

2006: 20-27-21-28 (33 ran-good to soft)

2005: 3-5-6-11 (30 ran-soft)

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2004: 33-29-31-18 (32 ran-good)

2003: 19-8-5-12 (24 ran-good to firm)

Record of course winners in the Cambridgeshire – none of the other five (juvenile) events have course winners involved on the Placepot card:

1/12—Master The World (good)

1/4—GM Hopkins (good)

1/3—Linguistic (good to soft)

2/2—Chelsea Lad (good to firm & good to soft)

2/2—Greenside (good to firm & soft)

1/2—Captain Cat (good to firm)

1/3—Secret Art (good to soft)

1/1—Red Tea (good)

 

4.10: Yet another (7/4) favourite got chinned on last year’s card but this renewal should be safely filed under the (secure Placepot call) file, with BYE BYE BABY and ALTYN ORDA having been declared.  Personally, I am not too worried about the order in which the two market leaders finish, just as long as they secure a Placepot position or two between them.  Safe for you to presume that I will not be getting involved from a win perspective. Lightening Quick let the Bye Bye Baby form down yesterday, though Aidan’s raider has already contested a Group race which augurs well for her chance in this grade/company I guess.

Favourite factor: All five favourites have secured Placepot positions without winning their respective events thus far.

 

4.45: Seven winners during the last decade carried a maximum burden of 9-1 though that said, the other trio of gold medallists heaved 9-7 to winning effect.  Richard Fahey is the only trainer to have a saddled two winners of this race during the last decade (within seven years in fact), whereby the chance for his consistent juvenile CLUBBABLE is there for all to see, from a Placepot perspective at least off 8-9.  Richard complicates matters having also declared EXHORT, whilst TIME CHANGE is offered as a win and place option for you to consider.

Favourite factor: The previous four market leaders had finished out of the frame since the last favourite scored, though last year’s 5/2 market leader at least secured a Placepot position.

 

All references to placed horses on these pages are based on an exact science regarding general place terms offered by bookmakers

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Newmarket card on Saturday – Their relevant number of winners (where applicable) on the corresponding day at Newmarket during the last five years are offered in brackets: 

6 runners—Aidan O’Brien (1)

5—Andrew Balding (1)

5—Richard Fahey (2)

5—William Haggas (1)

4—John Gosden (3)

3—Michael Appleby

3—Dean Ivory

3—Mark Johnston (4)

3—Kevin Ryan

3—Roger Varian (2)

2—Karl Burke

2—Ed Dunlop

2—David Elsworth

2—Jim Goldie

2—Charlie Hills (1)

2—Michael Meade

2—David Menuisier

2—David O’Meara (1)

2—John Ryan

2—David Simcock

2—Sir Michael Stoute

2—Saeed Bin Suroor (3)

2—Stuart Williams

+ 42 trainers with one entry on the card

108 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Chester: £95.70 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 4 placed – 4 unplaced

Haydock: £41.50 – 8 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

Market Rasen: £50.50 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Ripon: £987.20 – 6 favourites – 1 winner & 5 unplaced

Chelmsford: This is a new meeting on the racing calendar

 

 

 

 

 

Stat of the Day, 30th September 2017

Friday's Result :

3.00 Newmarket : Nyaleti @ 10/3 BOG 2nd at 2/1 : Raced alone towards far side of centre, chased leaders, 2nd over 1f out, ridden and stayed on inside final furlong, just held off by a head...

Saturday's last pick of another successful month goes in the...

3.10 Ripon :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Show Palace @ 7/2 BOG

Why?

This 4 yr old gelding is in great form, having finished 131171 in his last six runs and this consistency is refelcted in his career record of 9 wins from 22 on the Flat, which include the following relevant stats for today's race...

  • 9 wins and a place from 17 at 5 furlongs
  • 7 wins and 3 places from 16 after a break of just 8-30 days
  • 5 wins from 7 in August/September
  • 3 wins and 2 place from 6 soft ground efforts
  • 3 wins from 3 under Joe Fanning
  • and 1 from 1 in this grade.

He's trained by Jennie Candlish, possibly better known for her NH runners, but she's currently 2 from over the last fortnight, whilst over the past 2 years her record includes...

  • 56/348 (16.1%) for 19pts (+5.5%) in handicaps
  • 13/62 (21%) for 39.5pts (+63.6%) on the Flat
  • 13/59 (22%) for 42.5pts (+71.9%) in Flat handicaps
  • 7/16 (43.75%) for 16.56pts (+103.5%) in handicaps over 5 furlongs
  • 6/14 (42.9%) for 16.2pts (+116%) with handicappers ridden by Joe Fanning

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Show Palace @ 7/2 BOG, which was offered by a half dozen of so firms at 6.50pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.10 Ripon

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Monday September 4th

BRIGHTON – SEPTEMBER 4

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £627.40 (6 favourites - 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Brighton: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 6 (Lady Godiva) & 1 (Daybreak)

Leg 2 (2.30): 1 (Perfect Pastime), 6 (Lucky Di) & 7 (Angelical Eve)

Leg 3 (3.00): 6 (Princess Lyla), 4 (One For June) & 3 (Queen of Kalahari)

Leg 4 (3.30): 1 (Alwaysandforever), 3 (Sugardrop) & 2 (Shankara)

Leg 5 (4.00): 3 (Chough) & 1 (The Special One)

Leg 6 (4.30): 6 (Lawfilly), 1 (With Approval) & 2 (Alketios)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.00: Richard Hannon has saddled the two of the last three winners of the race (Richard was not represented in the inaugural contest) whereby the chance of LADY GODIVA is fully respected, especially with the trainer having scored with two of his three runners here at Brighton yesterday when securing a 12/1 double.  Richard's Camelot filly will be running on half decent ground for the first time whereby her first two efforts might have offered a false impression relating to what she is capable of.  Holly Doyle’s three pound claim is also a positive factor in a race which might not take a great deal of winning.  DAYBREAK undoubtedly sets the standard though let’s be honest, the bar has not been set very high thus far regarding the seven experienced runners in the field.  On the positive side, two of Hughie Morrison’s last eight runners have won, both gold medallists having hailed from his juvenile contingent.  Newcomers Living In The Now and Musical Theatre would not have to be anything out of the ordinary to figure prominently.

Favourite factor: Two of the four favourites have finished in the frame (one winner at 5/2), though it’s worth noting that a 4/9 market leader was beaten in a win only contest in the inaugural contest in 2013.

 

2.30:  The appropriate winner in 2014 was called Bookmaker, especially as the first three winners of this event scored at 25/1, 16/1 & 12/1.  It’s hardly surprising that four time course winner PERFECT PASTIME has attracted some money overnight in a very average contest, whereby the 11/1 quote of Bet365 stands out from the crowd at the time of writing.  Jim Boyle saddled a couple of winners in August which offers some confidence in a season which has not panned out particularly well for the trainer.  Peter Hedger’s last three runners have snared one gold medal and two of the silver variety whereby LUCKY DI is another each way type to consider, especially as Peter has only saddled more turf winners at Goodwood and Newbury than he has secured at Brighton since the old king died. George Baker secured a 32/1 double on the corresponding card last year which offers hope for ANGELICAL EVE from my viewpoint.  In a race which has bookmakers result written all over it, my three ‘outsiders’ are taken against the field in speculative fashion.

Favourite factor: Four of the five favourites (via four renewals) have secured toteplacepot, statistics which include last year’s successful 11/4 market leader.

Record of the course winners in the second race:

4/15—Perfect Pastime (4 x good)

1/3—Strictly Carter (good to firm)

 

3.00: The favourite factor stats below are worth more than a glance given the appalling record of market leaders in this event, albeit after just four renewals. Nursery events (two-year-old handicaps) have a habit of kicking investors in the teeth at this time of year as trainers are ever more trying to win races in any shape or form in order to get orders in the for the winter from their respective owners.  This is especially so in the juvenile division, as handlers try to eek out any improvement they can obtain via ‘headgear’ or any other way they can conjure up a winner.  The first three offerings from PRINCESS LYLA camouflaged what was to come when the Richard Hughes raider scored 12/1 in her first Nursery contest.  Sure enough, the Arakan filly followed up successfully in another two-year-old handicap at Wolverhampton and with five pound claimer Finley Marsh retained in the saddle, it is not beyond the realms of possibility that the hat trick will be landed in this grade/company.  I have not entirely written off the chance for ONE FOR JUNE who has contested warm races on her last two outings, whilst QUEEN OF KALAHARI in also added into the mix.

Favourite factor: Only one of the four favourites has secured a Placepot position and even then the 1/2 chance was beaten from a win perspective!  Two of the last three winners triumphed at 25/1 & 20/1.

Record of the course winners in the third contest on the card:

1/1—Haveoneyourself (good to firm)

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3.30: Trainers have to make you laugh at times because when handlers up and down the country are screaming out for races confines to fillies and/or mares, just three declarations for this relevant new race on the card have ensued.  It might not be as bad if we had a trio of three-year-olds of similar ability but with ALWAYSANDFOREVER seemingly a class apart here, most punters at the track will retire to the bar, especially with any warmth in non-existent sun in most parts of the country only being conspicuous by its absence.  That said, many ‘Potters’ will have learned the lesson from yesterday when ‘win only races’ (as documented on this service yesterday) can destroy many a Placepot dream, whereby SUGARDOP and SHANKARA (refused to race last time out) are added into the equation just in case lightning strikes twice in as many days on the Sussex downs.  That said, Luca Cumnani (ALWAYSANDFOREVER) has saddled five of his last 13 runners to winning effect, stats which have produced over 15 points of level stake profit.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Brighton card.

 

4.00: Four of the five winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-1 which eliminates all bar the top three horses in the list when taking jockey claims into account.  CHOUGH and Ali Stronge’s hat trick seeker THE SPECIAL ONE are ahead of HARLEQUIN ROCK in the queue on current form (though Mick Quinn – Harlequin Rock - can produce the odd rabbit out of the hat), which takes us straight in the last Placepot race on the card.  Next!

Favourite factor: The five favourites have secured three gold medals and two of the silver variety thus far, securing Placepot position in every race thus far.

Record of the course winners in the fifth race:

1/4—The Special One (good to firm)

1/5—Suni Dancer (good)

 

4.30: Although the relevant seven pound claimer drops LAWFILLY below the ‘superior’ weight barrier (see previous race details for this second heat), the Richard Hughes Lawman filly is impossible to ignore from a Placepot perspective.  Further up the handicap, I am not surprised by the overnight support for WITH APPROVAL, whilst ALKETIOS should make the frame representing the dual purpose yard of ‘local’ trainer Chris Gordon.

Favourite factor: This is the second division of the previous race on the card, whereby the same (positive) favourite stats apply.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/6—With Approval (good)

3/23—Lutine Charlie (good – good to firm- firm)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Brighton card on Monday – followed by their stats at the track yesterday:

3 runners—Tony Carroll (No runners at the track yesterday)

3—Richard Hughes (0/2)

3—Seamus Mullins (No runners)

2—George Baker (No runners)

2—Jim Boyle (No runners)

2—Mick Channon (0/2)

2—Julia Feilden (No runners)

2—Ed de Giles (0/1)

2—Richard Hannon (2/3)

2—Charlie Hills (No runners)

2—Gary Moore (1/2)

2—Hughie Morrison (No runners)

2—Neil Mulholland (No runners)

2—Tony Newcombe (No runners)

2—Mick Quinn (0/1)

2—David Simcock (0/1)

2—Joseph Tuite (0/1)

+ 38 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

75 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Ripon: £70.40 – 7 favourites – 4 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced

Windsor: £23,856.90 – 7 favourites – 2 winners & 5 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday August 29

EPSOM - AUGUST 29

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £60.70 (6 favourites - 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Epsom: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 3 (Seaella), 8 (Lexington Grace) & 4 (Ruysch)

Leg 2 (2.35): 5 (Lynwood Gold) & 6 (We Know)

Leg 3 (3.10): 4 (Highland Acclaim), 2 (Reputation) & 1 (Coronation Day)

Leg 4 (3.45): 5 (Coral Sea) & 8 (Favourite Royal)

Leg 5 (4.20): 7 (Let’s Be Happy), 5 (Challow) & 6 (Ode To Glory)

Leg 6 (4.50): 2 (Marrakib), 6 (Oh It’s Saucepot) & 8 (Av A Word)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.00: SEAELLA appears to be the safest option, especially from a Placepot perspective when so few horses are attracting money at the time of writing.  I understand that potential investors could be sceptical of backing John Quinn’s raider from a win perspective given her defeat at odds of 4/5 last time out.  That said, the memory of her York victory remains locked into what passes as a brain relating to this columnist and providing John’s Canford Cliffs filly handles the Epsom gradients, Jason Hart’s mount is taken to finish in the money at the very least.  LEXINGTON GRACE and RUYSCH are others to consider.

Favourite factor: Two of the eight renewals to date have been won by favourites, whilst six of the eight winners have scored at a top price of 7/1.  The six beaten favourites all failed to secure toteplacepot positions.

 

2.35: LYNWOOD GOLD and WE KNOW were holding their positions in the market (as others drifted) as dawn broke over the city of Bristol this morning which I am taking as a positive factor in a race in which support for horses later this morning could dictate the way the race pans out.  You have that advantage over yours truly of course, whereby I am leaving that scenario with you, suggesting that you keep your eyes peeled and act accordingly when contemplating your Placepot permutation leading up to the opening contest at 2.00.  If you look at the ‘favourite factor’ below, you will appreciate my comments.

Favourite factor: All ten winners during the last thirteen years have scored at 9/1 or less, whilst five market leaders have prevailed during the study period.

 

3.10: Five of the last seven winners have carried a minimum weight of 9-3 (top priced winner of 8/1) and the trio which make the most appeal via this year‘s six ‘qualifiers‘ are HIGHLAND ACCLAIM, REPUTATION and CORONATION DAY. The trio are listed in order of preference, given the course record of Highland Acclaim.  With so few horses on the card having won here at Epsom, his 2/3 record at the track is a strong positive factor, especially as both victories have been gained under the same projected (good) ground conditions.

Favourite factor: We still await the first successful favourite following eight renewals, whilst four market leaders have claimed Placepot positions.

Record of the course winners in the third race:

1/3—Reputation (good)

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2/3—Highland Acclaim (2 x good)

 

3.45: Three-year-olds have won all three renewals to date, with just two vintage representatives having been declared this time around, namely CORAL SEA and FAVOURITE ROYAL. I believe that the 10/3 quote this morning about CORAL SEA will remain in place throughout the day and should that be the case, we can remain optimistic about her Placepot claims.  The 16/1 shout about FAVOURITE ROYAL is worth some (minimum stake) interest given that she has the look of a potential seven furlong specialist from my viewpoint, even though her lone victory to date was posted over an additional furlong.  I’m hoping for a strong pace here which would bring about her best chance of rewarding win and place investors.  FLYBOY is the fairly obvious alternative option I guess.

Favourite factor: The inaugural favourite finished third of seven in a 'short field' contest.  The following 5/2 market leader fared a little better by finishing second in another short field contest before last year’s market leader duly obliged at odds of 11/4.  New readers might want to know that the term 'short field' relates to races with five/six/seven runners in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way/toteplacepot perspectives.

Record of the course winners in the fourth event:

1/1—Coral Sea (good to soft)

2/13—Swiss cross (2 x good)

 

4.20: Three-year-olds have won five of the last seven renewals with vintage representatives around the 11/8 mark before the form book is consulted on this occasion.  I have little (or no) hesitancy is offering up the trio against the remaining four contenders, listed in marginal order of preference as LET’S BE HAPPY, CHALLOW and ODE TO GLORY.

Favourite factor: A top priced winner of 7/1 has emerged via seven renewals thus far, statistics which include two successful (11/4 & 4/9) market leaders.

 

4.50: Nine of the ten available toteplacepot positions have been secured by horses carrying 9-5 or more and with David O’Meara back saddling winners on a fairly regular basis, MARRAKIB (subject of some support overnight – the only runner on the card to do so) is the win and place call. OH IT’S SAUCEPOT deserves her place at the head of the market as Chris Wall’s Sir Percy filly steps up in trip seeking her hat trick, whilst AV A WORD will not be on offer at 13/2 as the trade press quote indicated overnight. Coral have Daniel Kubler’s raider as short as 10/3, which suggests that the phones will be ring in Paddy Power offices both sides of the Irish Sea this morning, with their (each way) offer of 5/1 standing out from the crowd.  I would suggest that an SP of around 4/1 will be returned - win, lose or draw.

Favourite factor: The five favourites to date have secured three gold medals and two of the silver variety alongside toteplacepot positions.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/4—The Gay Cavalier (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Epsom card on Tuesday – followed by their recent ratios:

4 runners—Mick Channon (0/8 – Sunday/Monday)

4—Richard Fahey (2/7 yesterday)

3—Mark Johnston (0/9 – Sunday/Monday)

2—Ed Dunlop (0/21 since August 18)

2—Charlie Hills (1/22 since August 25)

2—Sylvester Kirk (1/17 since August 15)

2—David O’Meara (4/21 since August 26)

2—John Quinn (2/9 since August 25)

2—Mark Usher (1/9 since August 16)

+ 39 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

56 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Ripon: £70.40 – 7 favourites – 4 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced

Carlisle: £143.60 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

Newton Abbot: £792.10 – 7 favourites – 1 winner & 6 unplaced

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday 28th August

EPSOM - AUGUST BANK HOLIDAY MONDAY (28TH)

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £56.10 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 3 unplaced

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Epsom: 

Leg 1 (2.05): 5 (Voice Of The North), 8 (Powerful Society) & 1 (Make Good)

Leg 2 (2.40): 3 (Loving) & 2 (Summerghand)

Leg 3 (3.15): 5 (Majestic Hero), 6 (Discreet Hero) & 7 (Midnight Malibu)

Leg 4 (3.50): 4 (C’Est No Mour), 7 (Star Of Lombardy) & 1 (Hollywood Road)

Leg 5 (4.20): 4 (Midterm) & 5 (Mount Logan)

Leg 6 (4.55): 3 (Grapevine), 2 (Michele Strogoff) & 8 (Sound Bar)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.05: Mark Johnston boasts a 25% record with his juvenile at Epsom during the last five years, figures which have been boosted by Mark’s 2/5 strike rate at The Surrey venue this term.  This bodes well for Mark’s Mount Nelson colt VOICE OF THE NORTH though it’s worth noting that this is a particular late May foal that would be fully four and a half months younger than some two-year-olds in training.  POWERFUL SOCIETY and MAKE GOOD have experience on their side which means a great deal, particularly on this track which takes some handling.

Favourite factor: This is a new race with which to open proceedings at Epsom.

 

2.40:  Seven of the nine winners to date have carried weights of 9-3 or more, as have 14 of the 22 horses to have secured toteplacepot positions thus far.  These statistics eliminate the bottom four horses in the handicap, hopefully leaving LOVING and SUMERGHAND to battle it out at business at of proceedings.  The reserve nomination is awarded to PASTFACT who is seeking a four-timer on this occasion.

Favourite factor: Eight of the ten favourites have finished in the frame (exact science), statistics which include three successful (3/1-11/4**-15/8) market leaders.

 

3.15: Four-year-olds have won three of the last five renewals and with vintage representatives being around the 8/13 mark to extend the good run of results, preferred.  Two of the last four horses that trainer Ron Harris has saddled have won whereby his course winner MAJESTIC HERO is the first name on the score-sheet ahead of DISCREET HERO and MIDNIGHT MALIBU.

Favourite factor: Six renewals had slipped by since the last favourite won this before last year’s event when the 11/4 market leader prevailed. Four of the seven market leaders have now secured Placepot positions during the period.

Epsom record of runners in the third race:

1/2—Majestic Hero (good)

 

3.50: C’EST NO MOUR, STAR OF LAMBARDY and HOLLYWOOD ROAD all feature in my toteplacepot permutation in this contest which was known for many years as the ‘Derby‘ for part time pilots. 16/1 chance STAR OF LOMBARDY is the win and place call, given that Mark Johnston’s raider is a course and distance winner who is partnered by the more than capable rider Alex Ferguson.

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Favourite factor: Seven of the twelve favourites have secured toteplacepot positions since the terms and conditions altered the shape of this event back in 2005.  Four market leaders have prevailed from a win perspective during the period.

Epsom record of runners in the fourth event:

1/3—Thames Knight (good)

1/2—Star Of Lombardy (good to firm)

 

4.20: Five-year-olds have won four of the last five renewals when represented though unfortunately, these stats will have to been shelved until next year with vintage representatives only conspicuous by their absence this time around.  Connections of MIDTERM will be about as disappointed as Arsene Wenger this morning though at four years of age, the thoroughbred (arguably) has more time of his side compared to the Arsenal manager!  That said, this one time Derby favourite enters my personal ‘last chance saloon’, with MOUNT LOGAN appear to be the obvious ‘stumbling block’ to overcome.

Favourite factor: Four favourites have scored via thirteen renewals of late with the 12/1 gold medallist being returned as the biggest priced winner during the study period in 2012.  It’s worth noting that eight of the nine market leaders that failed to win their respective contests finished out of the frame, statistics which include one (5/6) odds on favourite.

Epsom Record of runners in the fifth race:

1/5—Great Hall (good)

 

4.55: Four-year-olds have won six of the last nine renewals of the Placepot finale when represented, whilst eight of the last eleven gold medallists were burdened with a minimum weight of 9-5.  GRAPEVINE and MICHELE STROGOFF both possess ticks in the relevant boxes and at respective odds of 11/1 & 20/1 on offer at the time of writing, punters have a chance to ‘get out of jail free’ here.  I will back that pair up with another each way option, namely 10/1 chance SOUND BAR.

Favourite factor: Thirteen renewals have now slipped by with successful favourites only being conspicuous by their absence.  Only four of the fifteen favourites have finished in the money during the study period.

Epsom Record of runners in the Placepot finale:

1/3—Innocent Touch (good)

1/2—Grapevine (good to soft)

2/4—Lorelina (2 x good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Epsom card on Monday – followed by their ratios at the track this year + profits/losses accrued:

3—Jim Boyle (0/6)

3—Richard Fahey (0/12)

3—Gary Moore (1/7 +1)

3—David O’Meara (1/9 – loss of five points)

3—Roger Varian (1/1 +8)

2—David Brown (No previous runners)

2—Tony Coyle (1/1 +25)

2—Charlie Hills (1/6 – loss of 1 point)

2—Mark Johnston (5/25 – Slight Profit)

2—Rod Millman (0/1)

2—David Simcock (0/3)

+ 29 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

56 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Chepstow: £403.30 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 4 unplaced

Ripon: £76.20 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Cartmel: £036.00 – 6 favourites – 1 winner & 5 unplaced

Southwell: No meeting

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday 14th August

WINDSOR – APRIL 14

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £50.10 (6 favourites - 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Windsor: 

Leg 1 (5.40): 3 (Flowing Clarets), 1 (Captain Ryan), 14 (Kath’s Boy) & 11 (Royal Normandy)

Leg 2 (6.10): 3 (Jupiter) & 4 (Lansky)

Leg 3 (6.40): 1 (Medalla De Oro) & 3 (Fanfair)

Leg 4 (7.10): 8 (Seniority), 5 (Don’t Give Up) & 4 (Chiefofchiefs)

Leg 5 (7.40): 4 (Codicil), 3 (Noble Manners) & 2 (Barbarianatthegate)

Leg 6 (8.10): 7 (Golden Easter) & 3 (Harlequin Storm)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

5.40: FLOWING CLARETS should be difficult to kick out of the frame at the frame at the very least here though from a win perspective, her actual odds could be classed as nearer 5/1 if we take her 4/24 stats into account.  That said, we have to the opposition into account whereby I could happily get involved at 4/1 (maybe!).  CAPTAIN RYAN and ROYAL NORMANDY are offered up as alternative each way options.  Outsiders from the Tony Carroll yard invariably attract my attention in this type of ‘ordinary’ race whereby the chance of KATH’S BOY is respected, though the 20/1 odds in the trade press look fanciful.

Favourite factor: This is a new race with which to open proceedings at Windsor on Monday.

Record of course winners in the opening event:

1/3—Flowing Clarets (soft)

 

6.10: Ojala has attracted some win and place money overnight though as far as possible winners are concerned, LANSKY and JUPITER are more logical calls.  As far as logic is concerned however, ‘newcomers’ like LANSKY are ‘speculative’ to a fashion, though you catch my drift.  Henry Candy did yours truly a favour yesterday by snaring a 6/1 double via just the two runners on the day whereby JUPITER is the marginal call this time around given his experience as much as anything else.

Favourite factor: This is another new race on the Windsor programme.

 

6.40: Although FANFAIR was a slightly disappointing favourite last time out, it’s worth recalling that his previous two victories were gained under different ground conditions which makes it impossible to entirely rule Richard Hannon’s raider out if the mix.  Becuna could be one of the better speculative options if you feel that a bookmaker’s result is on the cards, though Peter Chapple-Hyam’s recent course winner MEDALLA DE ORO showed much improved form have undergone a gelding operation.  I’m not talking after the event because I offered the Teofilo representative a decent chance seven days ago.

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Favourite factor: I can’t quite believe that this is another new contest on the Windsor card though seemingly, it is.

Record of course winners in the third race:

1/1—Medalla De Oro (good to soft)

 

7.10: Four of the five three-year-olds thus far have finished in the money, statistics which include a 4/1 winner. This year's two relevant declarations look well worth a Placepot interest, namely DON’T GIVE UP and SENIORITY who are difficult to split from my viewpoint.  Saeed Bin Suroor is enduring a difficult season by his high standards even though three of his last eleven runners have scored.  The opposite is true of William Haggas of course, whereby SENIORITY is the marginal call, albeit mainly from a value for money perspective.  If you can obtain the 11/1 offer by BetBright this morning, I’ve a notion you will ‘beat the book’, especially as Seniority is the only runner emerging from the Haggas stable today. If the junior runners are to be denied, the most likely joker in the pack will probably prove to be CHIEFOFCHIEFS whose trainer Charlie Fellowes has secured two victories via his last five representatives.  IF you have some cash to spare after the previous events today, a saver on MISTER CHOW might not go unrewarded given the form of the Gary Moore horses of late.  Purely speculative I assure you but at 7/1 (Bet365 & Skybet at the time of writing), there are worse ‘throwaway’ odds on offer today.

Favourite factor: Four favourites to date have just one silver medal (and a solitary Placepot position) to show for their endeavours.

Record of course winners in the fourth contest on the card:

1/1--Toulson (good to soft)

1/1—Celebration Day (good to firm)

1/2—Chief Of Chiefs (good)

 

7.40: The 9/4 quote in the trade press about CODICIL will not be obtainable according to the gospel of yours truly, with Sir Mark Prescott’s Lawman filly probably set to be returned at around the 13/8 mark.  If that does not sound like a great deal of difference, it’s worth pointing out that the differential is roughly the same as a horse being back into 5/1 from 9/1. BARBARIANATTHEGATE was not available at double figure prices for long overnight before being trimmed into 9/1 almost across the board. NOBLE MANNERS fought on well to score narrowly at Newmarket after a typically ‘gutsy’ performance from a Mark Johnston representative.  It’s worth noting that the front pair finished five lengths clear of the third horse that day under yielding conditions.

Favourite factor: All four market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions to date, statistics which include two (8/11 & 11/10) winners.  That said, the bad news is that Permian won this event twelve months ago, with Mark Johnston’s fine thoroughbred having suffered a fatal injury at the weekend.  Commiserations are offered to all the connections this morning.

 

8.10: Three-year-olds tend to get the better of their elders in these mixed vintage maiden events and so it has proved in this contest as all four winners have hailed from the junior ranks.  Ex Kevin Ryan inmate GOLDEN EASTER ran well enough to reward connection with place money on her first outing for Robert Cowell at Brighton recently (despite being a beaten odds on favourite) and a repeat of that effort would probably be good enough to snare the spoils in this grade/company.  HARLEQUIN STORM is expected to offer most resistance at the business end of proceedings.

Favourite factor: The Placepot ratio of 3/3 is in place via four renewals, given that one of the favourites was withdrawn before a new market could be formed

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Windsor card on Monday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

4 runners—David Evans (4/49 – loss of 26 points)

3—John Bridger (1/18 – loss of 9 points)

3—Richard Hannon (10/42 – Profit of 9 points)

2—Michael Bell (2/12 – Slight profit)

2—Robert Cowell (2/3 – Profit of 5 points)

2—Charlie Hills (3/20 – loss of 2 points)

2—Brian Meehan (2/10 – slight loss)

2—Joseph Tuite (1/10 – loss of 2 points)

+ 38 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

58 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Ayr: 119.20 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 5 placed – 1 unplaced

Ripon: This is a new fixture on the racing calendar

Wolverhampton: £79.70 – 6 favouriters – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced