Great St Wilfrid Stakes Betting Trends

Named after St.Wilfrid, the patron saint of Ripon, this Saturday’s 6f Great St Wilfrid Handicap is the highlight of the season for the North Yorkshire track - Ripon.

Sponsored by leading bookmaker William Hill the race is for horses aged 3 or older, while – did you know - 12 of the last 19 winners returned a double-figure price in the betting?

Here at GeeGeez we guide you through the 2021 renewal – this year staged on Saturday 14th August.


Recent Great St Wilfrid Winners

2020 - Staxton (4/1 fav)
2019 – Dakota Gold (5/1 fav)
2018 – Gunmetal (10/1)
2017 – Mattmu (25/1)
2016 – Nameitwhatyoulike (16/1)
2015 – Don’t Touch (4/1 fav)
2014 – Out Do (7/1 fav)
2013 – Baccarat (9/2 fav)
2012 – Pepper Lane (20/1)
2011 – Pepper Lane (11/1)
2010 – Damika (18/1)
2009 – Markab (7/2 fav)
2008 – Tajneed (17/2)
2007 – Kostar (10/1)
2006 – Excusez Moi (10/1)
2005 – Ice Planet (10/1)
2004 – Smokin Beau (16/1)
2003 – Hidden Dragon (16/1)
2002 – Deceitful (20/1)


Great St Wilfrid Betting Trends

17/19 – Previous winners over 6f
15/19 – Aged between 4-6 years-old
14/19 – Didn’t win last time out
13/19 – Carried 8-12 or more
13/19 – Winning distance of 1 length or less
12/19 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
11/19 – Finished unplaced last time out
11/19  - Had run at Ripon before (4 won)
10/19 – Unplaced favourites
10/19 – Had 5 or more previous runs already that season
7/19 – Ran at either Goodwood (4) or Newmarket (3) last time out
6/19 – Aged 4 years-old
6/19 – Winning favourites (5 in the last 8)
3/19 – Trained by David O’Meara (3 of last 10)
3/19 – Ridden by Daniel Tudhope
2/19 – Trained by Richard Fahey (2 of last 8)
1/19 – Aged 3 years-old
Staxton (4/1 fav) won the race in 2020
Dakota Gold (5/1 fav) won the race in 2019
Gunmetal won the race in 2018
No winner from stall 1 in the last 15 runnings
8 of the last 15 winners came from stalls 8-13 (inc)
Only 7 winning favourites since 1990
Since 1986 ALL bar one winner returned 20/1 or less
The average winning SP in the last 19 runnings is 11.5/1








Racing Insights, 9th August 2021

The four I felt had the best chance on Saturday finished 1st, 3rd and 4th with a non-runner, so I'm pretty pleased at where the tools took me. I didn't back the 9/2 winner, sadly, as I wanted more than 8/1, so I could back it E/W whilst the one I did back finished 4th. I did, however take 9/1 E/W about the third placed horse, so it wasn't a bad race for me in the end.

And now to Monday, where help comes in the form of open access to the pace tab to all users for all races, including these "races of the day"...

  • 4.35 Ayr
  • 6.55 Ripon
  • 7.15 Ballinrobe
  • 7.45 Ballinrobe

Just two UK races to choose between (big-field Irish hurdle races aren't my cup of tea) and although it's a small field, the 6.55 Ripon is the one I'm going to look at. Just thee five runners here, but one was a non-runner from Saturday's feature, so that's interesting. The trip is a mile and a half on good to soft ground for this Class 4, 3yo, flat handicap worth £4,347 and here are the contenders...

On form, Chase the Dollar is the only one without a recent win whilst Chalk Stream is the only LTO winner. We've three class movers as Grantley steps up one level whilst Barn Owl and Chase The Dollar drop one and two grades respectively.  Chalk Stream has already won over this trip, whilst Barn Owl and Grantley are former Ripon winners whereas Carrigilihy has actually scored over course and distance.

All five have been rested for over a week, yet all have raced in the past three weeks. Bottom weight Carrigillihy receives 12lbs from top weight Chalk Stream. Barn Owl, Chalk Stream and Grantley all come from in-form yards, with the latter pair having good Ripon records, as does the rider aboard Carrigillihy, whilst the form jocks are on likely market leaders Chalk Stream and Barn Owl with the latter being the one that should have run in my Saturday race.

Chalk Stream has two wins and a runner-up finish from his last four outings and he arrives here on the back of his best run yet, as he made all to win by 2.25 lengths at York 16 days ago. He's up 4lbs here, but that shouldn't be an issue, nor should the ground as he won on good to soft four starts ago and was a soft ground runner-up 11 days later. Definite contender here.

Barn Owl won here just over two months ago, claiming a Class 5, 1m3f Novice race by a nose. Since then, he has made his handicap debut as a solid runner-up (beaten by 3.75 lengths) of eight over 1m2f at Sandown. He's sure to come on for that, but does step up to 1m4f for the first time.

Chase The Dollar is a solid Class 4/5 runner who aside from one win by a neck (C5) always seems to find one or two just a bit too strong for him and that's probably the case here. He was well beaten (30L) when 12th of 13 in first time cheekpieces at Goodwood LTO, but that was on soft ground two classes higher. I expect him to give a better showing today, but I doubt it'll be enough, even with first-time blinkers.

Grantley won here (C3, 1m) back in April and has reasonably well without winning any of four races since, all off a mark of 77. This is his first effort beyond 1m2½f and I've doubts about him getting a mile and a half and a 1lb drop in weight isn't offering much help to him. Others look better suited.

Carrigillihy is interesting, getting weight from the rest of the field and he won here over course and distance two starts ago on similarly good to soft ground, albeit one class lower. He was a little unlucky LTO aiming for a hat-trick as things didn't go his way at nearby Thirsk, but although he was only fifth of seven, he was actually beaten by just three lengths. With just four rivals, he should get a clearer run here and he could go well.

Form under expected conditions courtesy of Instant Expert...

...shows Chalk Stream and Carrigillihy in the best light with Chase The Dollar not looking too good so far. I'm particularly interested in form on good to soft and over the trip.

There haven't been many small-field good o soft contests here at Ripon recently, but in the few they've had, there's not a huge advantage to be gained from the draw, although stalls 1 and 2 have done slightly better for winners and even more so for the placers...

...which again favours Chalk Stream and Carrigillihy. With regard to pace, again we're dealing with a small sample size, but those who race prominently or even lead are the ones who do best here...

...and if we look at how our runners have raced in their last few races...'d have to favour those in the top three stalls here. The composite pace/draw heatmap doesn't actually rule any of them out here...

...but Barn Owl looks worst off, whilst again it's Chalk Stream and Carrigillihy looking best placed.


You probably already know where I'm at here. Everywhere we've looked, we've got the same two names crop up and they're also the 1-2 on the Geegeez SR figures, so somewhat unsurprisingly my 1-2 here is Chalk Stream to beat Carrigillihy.

Chalk Stream is the current 9/4 favourite and that's probably fair, I thought he might even be a bit shorter than 2's based on the evidence above and Carrigillihy is the 10/3 third fav so far. Too short for an E/W bet, of course, but of interest for the (reverse) forecast/exacta bettors.

Racing Insights, 7th May 2021

Thursday's featured horse, Murhib, has yet to run and he has only moved out a quarter of a point in the last 24 hours, as the money has come for my next best, Blow Your Horn. Hopefully these two can fill the frame and arrest a run of luck as bad as that of a blind cobbler!

Friday now beckons and that's the day we open up the Horses for Courses report to all readers. That report does pretty much what it says on the tin and you can find it here. We also have a bunch of free races to tilt at, even if you're not a Gold subscriber and they will be...

  • 1.45 Chester
  • 1.50 Downpatrick
  • 2.15 Chester
  • 3.15 Chester
  • 3.35 Market Rasen
  • 5.50 Ripon

And it's the Horses for Courses report for me today and a couple of interesting runners, who I imagine will be fairly popular with punters, but still at backable prices (4/1+?), due to the competitiveness of their races. Let's see if any, both or none of them are worth backing.

We'll do this chronologically, starting with the 1.45 Chester, which also happens to be a 'race of the day', so I'll show full graphics for this one. It's an 11-runner, Class 2 Flat handicap for 4yo+ over 7½f on Good to Soft (Soft in places) ground and it's worth £10,308. Here's the full card...

As you can see, Revich, who is second on the Geegeez ratings, hasn't won any of his last four starts at Ascot, Doncaster (x2) and Newbury, since landing back to back wins here at Chester in August 2020, the second of which was at this class, course and distance off 4lbs lower than today.

He is, however, a pound lower than when beaten by less than three lengths at Newbury in a big-field handicap last time out, where he got home ahead of some highly rated runners. In fact he was 4.25 lengths clear of Oh This Is Us, who has since landed a Listed race at Ascot and is currently rated at 103.

With 2 blocks of green and 2 of amber, Revich is one of the standout horses on Instant Expert and as I've arranged that grid in draw order, you'll see that he has what many people widely assume to be the plum draw in stall 1 at Chester. It isn't necessarily the best, but it certainly can be on a track where you're always turning left.

His record here at Chester is excellent, as per the Horses for Courses report with finishes of 15311 on the Roodee, including 131 at the slightly shorter 7f trip and he's 1 from 1 over course and distance, his only previous run over 7.5f. Otherwise he has finished 15111 when sent off shorter than 5/1 in Flat handicaps, 511 on good to soft, has 2 wins from 6 in a visor and is 1 from 1 under today's jockey, Tom Marquand. Tom is in good form right now as highlighted on the race card and he has three wins and a place from eight Chester rides since the start of last season.

We know he's drawn in stall 1, which is good as it's a low draw, but it's not as massively advantageous as some lazy pundits/tipsters might have you believe. At 3 wins and 3 places from 22, it does reasonably well, but no better than stalls 2, 3, 6, 7 or 9, so the draw can sometimes be a misnomer here at Chester.

If you're in stall 1 and stall 2 or 3 etc is a fast starter, you can easily be "cut-off" at the first turn, thus negating any draw advantage.

This sort of demonstrates my last point. Revich isn't fast away, doesn't like to lead or even race prominently, but Gobi Sunset does and I'd expect him to quickly track over from stall 4, grab the rail and attempt to control/win from the front. Typical Norton/Johnston tactics to be fair.

I'll give my final assessment of Revich's chances after I've had a quick look at Mark's Choice in the 6.20 Ripon. This is a a 10-runner Class 4, Flat handicap for 4yo+ over 6f on Good To Soft ground worth £5,234. As it's not a free race, I'm only going to show you the sections relating to Mark's Choice here...

Mark's Choice is also second on the Geegeez ratings, just 1pt behind the top rated horse and he won here over course and distance at Class 5 to end last season on a high and picked up where he left off 22 days ago with another course and distance win. That was a good run in a 14-runner handicap despite a 201-day layoff, a step up to this class and an 8lb rise in weight. He ran on well at the finish and he might have to grit his teeth here with an extra 4lb at play.

He's clearly well suited by today's conditions, even at 4lbs higher than his last win, but today's mark of 81 is only 1lb higher than when landing another C&D success here in June 2019, so this isn't necessarily beyond him. His record here at Ripon reads39114311 including 91311 over course and distance, whilst generally in Flat handicaps he is 4 from 8 at Class 4 for prizes of less than £6,000, he's 3 from 7 on good to soft ground, 3 from 5 in April/May, 2 from 4 for trainer Sam England and 1 from 1 under jockey Dougie Costello.

He's drawn on stall 5, which isn't too bad a draw but he'd prefer to be lower than that based on his prominent front running style. He and Abel Handy looks likeliest to set the pace and had our runner got Abel's draw, that would have been a solid pace/draw make-up for this race, but that alone wouldn't be the reason for a loss here.


I like both here!

I'm happy to back Revich at 15/4, given that Brentford Hope is a non-runner, whilst I wouldn't be surprised if eith ofr Ejtilaab (10/1) or Grove Ferry (13/2) ran big races here. And over at Ripon, I'm equally, if not slightly more, happy to back Mark's Choice at 9/2. Others to watch might include Flying Pursuit (8/1) and Citron Major (5/1).

Good luck!



Ripon Draw & Pace Bias

Ripon racecourse is located in North Yorkshire and they began racing at the current location in 1900, writes Dave Renham. Ripon is a right-handed flat track that is considered quite sharp - its circumference is 1m5f with a run in of 5f. Races over 6f start with a separate chute giving two distances on the straight track.



As with previous articles in this series I have used some of the tools available on the Geegeez website, namely the Draw Analyser, the Pace Analyser and the Query Tool. The main data set covers the period from 2009 to 2020, and there is the option to examine a more recent subset where appropriate. I will be focusing once again on 8+ runner handicap races.

Ripon 5f Draw Bias (8+ runner handicaps) 

Since 2009 there have been 63 qualifying races over the minimum distance. Here are the stats: 

Higher draws are positioned next to the stands’ rail and seem to have a nominal edge. Looking at the A/E values, these show a good correlation with the draw win percentages:

Looking at the 12-year data it seems that the stands’ rail does offer runners some advantage in smaller fields. In races of 8 to 11 runners we have the following draw splits:

The A/E value for the highest third stands at a promising 1.14 which adds credence to the theory. Recent evidence (2015 onward) gives similar stats in smaller field contests with 11 of the 20 races (55%) being won by high drawn horses.

Ground conditions do not appear to make any difference to the draw so let us move on to looking at draw broken down by individual stall position.

In terms of individual draw figures I am reversing them as I did with the 5f data in the Musselburgh. I am looking at them in relationship to their proximity to the stands’ rail as highest draws are drawn next to that rail. I used the Geegeez Query Tool to give me the relevant data:


There is nothing particularly clear cut here. However, what should be noted about Ripon’s straight track is that as the fields get to around 14 or 15 runners, higher draws tend to make a beeline for the far rail. There have been very few races with big fields in 5f races, but from very limited data those drawn closest to the far side (very low draws) may have a slight edge. One race where this seemed to be the case was back in 2013 (6th August) where the first three draws home in a 15 runner handicap were drawn 2, 1 and 3. The Exacta paid £256.30 and the tricast £768.91.

Ripon 5f Handicaps (8+ Runners) Pace Bias

Let us look at pace and running styles now. I have always considered the 5f trip at Ripon to offer a front running advantage so let’s see if the stats back up the theory. The overall figures (2009-20) are as follows:


As courses go Ripon’s figures for front runners are around the UK course average for 5f handicaps – not the strongest bias, but still a decent enough one. The strongest pace bias in reality is the one against hold up horses: they have been at a massive disadvantage, winning just five races from over 200 runners (A/E 0.27). Only Chester and Epsom over 5f have worse figures for hold up horses.

Ground conditions seem to make a slight difference in terms of front runners with better going (good or firmer) seeing their strike rate edge up to 19.7% and their A/E value at 1.54.

Let me look at field size now. As the field size increases the front running edge seems to get stronger. Here are the stats for races of 12 or more runners:


Admittedly this sample is just 24 races so we need to appreciate that we cannot be over confident that bigger fields increase the bias. However, what I would say is that the placed percentage for front runners over these 24 races stands at 55.6%, which is a positive.

Finally in this 5f section a look at draw / pace (running style) combinations for front runners over this minimum distance. Remember this is looking at which third of the draw is responsible for the early leader of the race (in % terms). I would expect the early leader to be drawn near to the stands’ rail more of the time (high).

As expected horses drawn closest to the stands’ rail tend to get to the early lead. Front runners drawn towards a flank generally prefer a rail to run against and of those high drawn runners that led early over 1-in-5 went on to win.

A look at the draw/run style heat map reveals a ready diffusion of green to red - good to not good - from led to held up:

Ripon 5f Summary

The 5f distance does offer interest from both a draw and pace perspective. There seems to be a slight high draw (stands’ rail) bias in smaller fields, while in bigger fields there is a hint of a slight low draw (far rail) bias. Pace wise there is a good edge for front runners which potentially strengthens as the field size increases. Meanwhile hold up horses have an absolutely dreadful record regardless of field size or going.


Ripon 6f Draw Bias (8+ runner handicaps)

Here are the draw splits for the straight six furlong course at Ripon (170 races):

Fairly even looking figures though middle draws have fared slightly worse. Let’s see if the A/E figures offer better pointers:

There is strong correlation here and in general these figures suggest that there looks little in the draw, albeit that a middle gate might not be ideal.

Looking at the statistics for the going, the figures remain similar regardless of ground conditions. This is the same for field size so there does not seem a far rail / low draw bias when the field size starts to stretch across the track. Hence my theory that there was a hint of a low draw bias over 5f in big fields may just have to remain a theory!

There is a glimmer of hope for draw fans over 6f as when we combine softer ground with bigger fields a possible pattern starts to emerge. Data though is extremely limited which is important to note once again. On softer going (good to soft or softer) in fields of 14 runners or more, it seems that middle draws may be at a disadvantage. Under such conditions there have been just 13 races, but they have produced a solitary win for horses drawn in the middle. The middle draw placed stats are poor also with just 9 placed runners from 47 (15 places for high; 23 for low), and middle draws beat just 38% of rivals, as can be seen in the PRB column below.


Now 13 races is far too small a sample in reality and in essence one can legitimately argue that we should take these figures with a pinch of salt. However, I felt it worth sharing it with you.

A look now at individual draw positions in six-furlong eight-plus runner handicaps at Ripon – reversed once again in terms of their position in relation to the stands’ rail:


As might have been expected, there is nothing clear-cut here.

Ripon 6f Pace Bias (8+ runner handicaps)

Let’s see if pace / running styles offers us an edge. Here are the overall figures going back to 2009:


There is a strong front running bias here – slightly stronger than the 5f bias. Once again hold up horses have a very poor record.

In races with bigger fields, the general bias seems to strengthen with front runners and pace trackers (prominent racers) having a huge edge over horses that race mid pack or at the back early. Here are the data for races with 14 or more runners:


33 wins for horses that raced in the front half of the pack early in the race compared with just seven for those running in the back half, from a roughly even 50/50 split of horses. This is something as punters that we can use in our favour.

The big sprint of the season at Ripon is the Great St Wilfrid Handicap held in the middle of August. It is a Class 2 handicap over 6 furlongs with an average field size since 2009 of just over 18 runners (max field size now is 20). In the last 11 renewals of this race (going back to 2009), five of the 11 winners led from the start and made all the running, while another winner disputed the lead early before asserting in the final two furlongs. This is a remarkable front running bias for such a competitive and big field sprint. Indeed the last four winners have ‘made all’. Of those four winners, three of them had led last time out and two of them were top of the geegeez pace section (i.e. had the highest pace total from its last four races). This is one of the many reasons to upgrade to Geegeez Gold if you haven’t already.

The final table in the 6f section takes a look at draw / pace (running style) combinations for front runners in 6f handicaps (2009 – 2020). I would expect higher draws get to the lead more often as they did over 5f for the same reasons as explained earlier:

The splits are as expected – those runners drawn high that did lead early have gone onto win roughly one race in four – another stat worth knowing.

As intimated by the previous comments, the draw/run style heat map shows the value of being close to the front; and the difficulty of being waited with from a middle to high draw.

Ripon 6f Summary

To conclude, 6f handicaps at Ripon offer no real interest from a draw perspective, but the pace angle is a very strong one. Front runners enjoy a good edge while hold up horses really have a very poor time of it.


Ripon 1 Mile Draw Bias (8+ runner handicaps) 

The mile trip is raced on the round course with low stalls positioned next to the inside rail. 102 handicap races have been run with eight or more runners since 2009. Here is the draw breakdown:

Low draws seem to have a very small edge, but it is not a bias we could confidently ‘play’.

The A/E values back this up further:

Low draws seem to be overbet slightly with a lower A/E value compared to the high draw figure. This makes sense to me as, going back 15-20 years, the perceived ‘wisdom’ was that low draws did have an edge here over this distance. That perception more than likely remains.

Field size potentially makes a difference as runner numbers increase. Looking at races of 11 or more runners we can see that low draws enjoy an edge when looking purely at win percentages:

There have been 57 races with 11+ runners so this is a fair sample size. The A/E value for low drawn horses improves to 0.97, although this figure still indicates that the low draw bias is factored into the bookmaker’s prices. I would prefer to be drawn low under these circumstances but you need to be selective when trying to evaluate value.

Ground conditions offer no edge so we move on to the individual draw positions for all 8+ runner handicap races. I'm reverting to traditional draw numbers for this distance, as stall one is next to the inside rail:


Stall 4 has clearly over-performed but that is simply down to chance.

Ripon 1 Mile Pace Bias (8+ runner handicaps)

On to pace now – time to look at the overall pace data now (2009-2020):


The 1 mile distance does have a pace bias and prominent racers have the best record. Horses that race in the back half of the field in the early stages of mile races are at a disadvantage once again.

At this juncture I want to briefly discuss the non-handicap pace stats over this trip. Although I tend to avoid non-handicaps for this type of research, the data for this track and trip did catch my eye. There have been 32 non-handicaps races over a mile at Ripon since 2009 and, of those, 29 were won by horses that raced front rank early (led / prominent); just three wins went to horses that raced mid-division, and horses that were held up were 0-from-114. There has been a huge pace bias in these races so I felt it was worthwhile pointing it out.

Back to the 1m handicap data - this pace bias occurs regardless of field size, but in terms of ground conditions, it seems to get even stronger on better going. On good ground or firmer the pace figures read as follows:


Hence, on good or firmer we definitely want to be siding with horses that are up with or close to the front rank, while avoiding hold up horses like the plague. On good to soft or softer the bias evens out a bit, and although you still want to be nearer the front than the back early on, the edge is much reduced.

Now let us take a look at draw / pace (running style) combinations for front runners in mile handicaps (2009 – 2020).

Horses drawn closest to the inside rail (low) get to the lead in roughly half of all races. You would expect to see to this due to the configuration of the track.

The draw/run style heat map - displaying percentage of rivals beaten (PRB) again shows the difficulty of coming from off the pace, and the strong advantage of racing front rank.

Ripon 1 Mile Summary

In conclusion, lower draws may have a slight edge and certainly do as the field size increases. However, it is not going to be easy profiting from this. From a pace perspective, over this mile trip you definitely want to be on a ‘pace’ horse and want to avoid runners who are likely to be held up.

For the remainder of this article I am going to focus on pace only as the draw data at longer trips is unsurprisingly very even. However, there still seems a pace bias at 1m2f and 1m4f, especially on better ground (mirroring the mile data).


Ripon 1 Mile 2 Furlongs Pace Bias (8+ runner handicaps)

For the record, they also race over 1m1f at Ripon but there have only been four handicap races with 8+ runners since 2009. Over 1m2f there have been 78 races giving the following pace splits:


A slight edge for front runners with hold up horses again the worst of the four pace styles. When we narrow the results down to races on good or firmer ground the bias against hold up horses strengthens again as it did over 1 mile:

Horses that race mid-division cannot be dismissed over this trip and going, but hold up horses continue to really struggle.


Ripon 1 Mile 4 Furlongs Pace Bias (8+ runner handicaps) 

There have been 68 handicap races over 1 mile 4 furlongs in the sample period – here are the stats:


Prominent racers have the best record followed by front runners. Hold up horses again have a very poor record. Moving to races on good or firmer going, the same pattern emerges as it did over 1 mile and 1m2f.


As we can see front runners and prominent racers have better records on better ground while horses that race mid division or are held up do worse.


Ripon Draw and Pace Bias Summary

Taking "the garden racecourse" as a whole we have little to get stuck into draw wise – over 5 furlongs in smaller fields it high draws seem to have a reasonable advantage; over 1 mile in bigger fields low draws seem to have an edge (and very high draws are commensurately unfavoured).

Looking at the track from a pace angle, across all distances from 5f to 1m 4f, hold up horses have a dreadful record. In sprints, front runners have a good record especially over 6f. Meanwhile, from 1 mile to 1 mile 4 furlongs, better going conditions accentuates the bias against hold up horses; it also gives horses that race front rank an increased chance.

- DR

Stat of the Day, 20th June 2020

Friday's pick was...

4.25 Lingfield : Tabaahy @ 7/2 BOG 3rd at 18/5 (Slightly slowly away and held up towards rear, ridden and quickened over 1f out, never nearer)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

5.35 Ripon :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


Highland Acclaim @ 6/1 BOG a 13-runner, Class 6, A/W handicap for 4yo+ over 6f on Good to Soft ground worth £2,782 to the winner... 


This 9yr old gelding is clearly not the force he used to be, but this veteran of 109 previous contests proved he wasn't finished with a first win at just the third attempt for his new trainer last time out.

That was just over three months ago at Lingfield, but he now reverts back to the type of race where he has enjoyed most success in the past : a 6f Flat handicap, where he converts a career record of...

into this in Flat 6f handicaps at odds of Evens to 13/2...

It would have been convenient if any of those 6 wins had been here at Ripon, but none of the 14 races were at this venue, but not to worry, as trainer Ruth Carr is one of the trainers in my saved Query Tool angle for Ripon. She's one of seven trainers I look out for here, because blindly backing her handicappers here over the last three seasons has resulted in...

from which, she is...

  • 13/84 (15.5%) for 128.38pts (+152.8%) with male runners
  • 13/74 (17.6%) for 138.38pts (+187%) in fields of 6-16 runners
  • 13/72 (18.1%) for 140.38pts (+195%) in races worth less than £13k to the winner
    (combining these three stats above looks a logical progression, so see below)
  • 8/46 (17.4%) for 29.18pts (+63.4%) over this 6f C&D
  • 8/35 (22.9%) for 57.49pts (+164.3%) in 4yo+ contests
  • 8/33 (24.2%) for 10.92pts (+33.1%) at odds of 5/2 to 15/2
  • 7/52 (13.5%) for 105.2pts (+202.3%) with James Sullivan in the saddle
  • 3/15 (20%) for 17.75pts (+118.4%) on Good to Soft
  • and 3/13 (23.1%) for 19.75pts (+152%) in June

I suggested combining the first three sets of data and this tells us that male runners competing for a top prize of less than £13k in a field of 6-16 runners are 13 from 64 (20.3%) for 148.38pts (+231.8% ROI) profit at Betfair SP and these include winners at the following strike rates...

  • 30.8% (8 from 26) at 5/2 to 15/2
  • 27.6% (8/29) over this 6f C&D
  • 27.6% (8/29) in 4yo+ contests
  • 25% (3/12) in June
  • 21.4% (3/14) on Good to Soft
  • and 18.9% (7/37) for jockey James Sullivan...

...pointing towards...a 1pt win bet on Highland Acclaim @ 6/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.10am Saturday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see a small sample of odds offered on this race... here for the betting on the 5.35 Ripon

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Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!