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Placepot pointers – Saturday April 23

SANDOWN – APRIL 23

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2015: £48.00 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 2 placed - 1 unplaced)

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Sandown: 

Leg 1 (): 4 (Duke Street), 2 (Tommy Silver) & 5 (Doubly Clever)

Leg 2 (): 1 (Menorah) & 6 (Valseur Lido)

Leg 3 (): 4 (Sprinter Sacre) & 2 (Sure De Grugy)

Leg 4 (): 19 (Hadrian's Approach), 15 (Just A Par), 16 (Measureofmydreams), 13 (The Young Master) & 20 (Gold Futures)

Leg 5 (): 3 (Vrioum Vroum Mag) & 2 (Ubak)

Leg 6 (): 10 (Antony), 35(Calipto) & 1 (Volnay De Thaix)

Suggested stake: 360 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.20: Paul Nicholls has saddled a gold and two bronze medallists via just four renewals of this opening event to date, the soft ground winner TOMMY SILVER representing the Ditcheat based yard this time around, with Paul having held three options for the race earlier in the week. A winner of the middle of three assignments to date, I have to draw your attention to the Paul Nicholls stats at Sandown which stand at 1/22 before Saturday's sport in contested.  Paul will be confident of casting those figures aside having declared 19 runners on the card on the last day of the NH season. Willie Mullins had just the one entry and sure enough, VOIX DE REVE has been offered the green light in attempt to whittle into Paul's lead at the top of the table.  All four winners have carried a minimum burden of 11-1 thus far, which also brings in the likes of DUKE STREET and DOUBLY CLEVER. Two points to make relating to the latter named raider, as Harry Cobden's mount will drop into the 'inferior' sector of the handicap via Harry's claim, whilst the jockey would not be popular in the Ditcheat camp if he denies TOMMY SILVER on the run in.

Favourite factor: Two of the four market leaders have finished in the frame to date, statistics which include the first successful (4/1) market leader in the contest thus far.

Sandown record of course winners in the opening event:

1/1--Darebin

2.55: Defending dual champion MENORAH has been declared to attempt to keep up the fine recent form of Philip Hobbs, with connections probably having most to fear from the Mullins raider VALSEUR LIDO.  Connections might want some rain to fall for Willie's main charge, whereas Paul's popular inmate SAPHIR DU RHEU seems to cope with all types of ground.  Philip Hobbs suffered during the Cheltenham/Aintree festivals by his high standards but the "Master Trainer" in certainly back among the winners now and with MENORAH seemingly loving this Esher test, Richard Johnson can celebrate his first championship to winning effect on the day.

Favourite factor: One of the two favourites thus far gained a Placepot position last year by winning this event, commemorating the great name of John Lawrence, or Lord Oaksey as he was better known in ‘recent’ years.  .

Sandown record of course winners in the second contest:

2/2--Menoraj

1/2--Saphir Du Rheu

3.35: Eight-year-olds have won five of the last eight renewals with UN DE SCEAUX desperately attempting to turn around the Champion Chase Cheltenham form with SPRINTER SACRE on behalf of the Irish contingent.  Three and a half lengths separated the pair at Prestbury Park last month, whilst SPRINTER SCARE ran second in this event last year, albeit Nicky Henderson's grand servant has become the force of old by comparison.  Rated as much as 13 pounds below his best now, Nicky's ten-year-old wowed the Cheltenham crowd recently as as much as Willie Mullins would like to gain revenge for the recent defeat, the Sandown masses (Paul Nicholls included) will be roaring their support for SPRINTER SACRE.  It would be churlish in the extreme to ignore the chance of former champion SIRE DE GRUGY.  Paul's three runners look to have been declared to try and pick up some prize money along the way and even if the trio trail in behind the others, £11,687 will be added to Paul's kitty for the year.

Favourite factor: All 14 winners have scored at 9/1 or less to date, whilst nine market leaders have reached the frame, statistics which include three winners.

Sandown record of course winners in the third race:

1/1--Dodging Bullets

4/6--Sire De Grugy

1/2--Sprinter Sacre

4.10: I was at Sandown in 1970 to watch Richard Pitman boot home Royal Toss in what was known as the 'Whitbread' for many years and the main reason for offering you that insight into my ‘dodgy upbringing’ was that Royal Toss was the first of 14 eight-year-old winners in ‘recent’ times.  If we add the 12 victories from nine-year-olds, we can quickly deduce that these vintages have accounted for 26/46 victories or if you prefer, 56.5% of the contests down the (relevant) years.  29 of the last 34 winners (85.3%) have carried a maximum burden of 11-2.  Eight-year-olds have won five of the last 12 contests and putting the stats and facts together produces a speculative short list of HADRIAN'S APPROACH, JUST A PAR and MEASUREOFMYDREAMS. The first named pair have won the last two renewals between them but even so, both qualify via the vintage and weight trends, as does the Mullins raider MEASUREOFMYDREAMS.  Willie's Shantou gelding ran well to finish third at Cheltenham before departing the scene 'early doors' when a joint favourite in last week's Scottish Grand National.  GOLD FUTURES is no forlorn hope at the foot of the handicap, though marginal preference is for THE YOUNG MASTER as the overnight reserve nomination.

Favourite factor: Nine of the last 25 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions (one winner) during the more recent study period, whilst nine of the last 17 winners scored at odds of 14/1 or more.

Sandown record of course winners in the fourth contest on the card:

1/1--Bishops Road

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1/1--Carole's Destrier

1/3--Southfield Theatre

3/8--Le Reve

1/2--Just A Par

1/3--Hadrian's Approach

4.45: Connections of VROUM VROUM MAG might feel a little disappointed that the ground at Sandown on Friday appeared quicker than anticipated, though Ruby's mount looks to have enough class to cope with this opposition whatever the conditions.  Official figures suggest that Silsol could win but I rarely get that individual right whereby I anticipate UBAK being the main threat to the Irish raider, marginally ahead as PTIT ZIG.  Please form an orderly queue outside betting shops up and down the country overnight as you wait to back Silsol accordingly!

Favourite factor: Both favourites have obliged to date at 9/4 (Nicky Henderson) and 15/8 (Paul Nicholls).

Sandown record of course winners in the fifth race:

1/1--Ptit Zig

1/1--Vaniteux

5.00: Gary Moore "Sandown is my Cheltenham" saddles course and distance winner ANTONY with a definite chance of improving Gary's staggering ratio 10/21 at Sandown this season, with CALIPTO from the Nicholls yard possibly giving the six-year-old most to do at the business end of proceedings.  ANTONY was an impressive eight length winner on good to soft ground here in December and though the official assessor didn't take too kindly to that success, a subsequent drop of a couple of pounds since his last assignment brings Jamie's mount right into the mix from my viewpoint.  CALIPTO is the pick of the Nicholls trio, with VOLNAY DE THAIX in the thick of things this side of midnight.

Favourite factor: The toteplacepot finale rightly remembers the name of Josh Gifford.  Goodness knows what he and Terry Biddlecombe are up to as we wrap up the 2015/2016 NH season!  The entire racing world is that much poorer for the passing of two great names from the past, notwithstanding John Lawrence who (in Lord Oaksey's previous guise) is probably trying to bring the pair to order right now!  For the record, both favourites thus far have missed out on Placepot positions.

Sandown record of course winners in the toteplacepot finale:

2/4--As De Mee

1/1--Viva Steve

1/2--Antony

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Sandown card on Saturday:

19--Paul Nicholls (1/22 at Sandown this season)

10--Willie Mullins (1/3)

8--Nicky Henderson (4/14)

4--Gary Moore (10/21)

4--Colin Tizzard (0/5)

3--Neil Mulholland (2/4)

2--Warren Greatrex (1/5)

2--Philip Hobbs (2/17)

2--Dr Richard Newland (0/7)

2--Jonjo O'Neill (1/8)

2--David Pipe (2/10)

2--Evan Williams (0/6)

+ 22 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

82 declared runners

 

General overview:

Placepot dividends from last year's corresponding meetings:

Doncaster: £595.60 (7 favourites - 2 winners - 1 placed - 4 unplaced)

Haydock: £801.60 (8 favourites - 1 winner - 2 placed - 5 unplaced)

Leicester: £45.80 (6 favourites - 2 winners - 3 placed - 1 unplaced)

Ripon: £227.00 (6 favourites - No winners - 2 placed - 4 unplaced)

Wolverhampton: £38.10 (6 favourites - 2 winners - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)

 

Sandown overview:

The meeting takes on a relatively new twist with the Mullins/Nicholls 'battle' taking centre stage.  We 'anoraks' are not too keen accordingly, given that the Irish trainers upset the 'routine' of the meeting.  For the record, Willie saddled the beaten (third placed) 6/1 favourite in the 'Gold Cup' event (4.10) back in 2013.

 

New BDH squad member: “He always runs while others walk”…

Nice flippers Mr Bond!

New BDH squad member: "He always runs while others walk"...

A couple of things to cover today here on BDH with a quick look back at the weather decimated Ebor Handicap from Saturday and a new addition to our BDH forward line, in the shape of a runner who will be looking for the rain to continue... Ebor Handicap Debrief... Safe to say the Ebor was a royal pain in the ass for me! I went into the morning with 3 fairly solid strings to my bow (including what I thought was a rather tasty 25-1 Ante-Post shot) and by lunchtime (4 hours from the race) I was left with a rather feeble 1 strong attack line!!

It's very rare that I play ante-post (it doesn't really fit with my punting style) so you can imagine how happy/smug I was feeling with my 25-1 ticket on Tropical Beat, who in some places was trading as low as single figures, thanks to a certain Mr Pricewise. You can then imagine my overwhelming sense of utter deflation when I heard he was a non-runner!!! Safe to say I turned the air a nasty colour of blue for a few minutes in the BDH office! If I'm honest I think a number of the Non-Runners were a bit hasty. The track wasn't actually riding that slow/soft, visually or on the clock. In fact I had a look at the results in my Proform database on Sunday and it told me the track was riding more like Good to Soft than Soft. I'm assuming connections walked the track before pulling their runners from the race and I can only assume it then felt softer than it actually was. Anyhoo it's a moot point now and the result was that I was left with a threadbare attack from my initial selections. Best thing to do then is revert to my shortlist...

Here is how the shortlist from the FREE analysis guide fared...

TIGER CLIFF 18/19 - 1st @ BFSP 7.06

NO HERETIC 18/19 - NON-RUNNER

OPINION 16/19 - 10th @ BFSP 6.57

GUARANTEE 16/19 - 7th @ BFSP 18

SHEIKHZAYEDROAD 15/19 - 9th @ BFSP 25.97

CARAVAN ROLLS ON 15/19 - 11th @ BFSP 8

SUN CENTRAL 15/19 - NON_RUNNER

With the withdrawal of No Heretic Lady Cecil's Tiger Cliff was left clear on his own at the top of the shortlist and he went on to justify his top ranking on the BDH figures with a well timed victory under Tom Queally.

It's a minor reward for what was a bit of a bugger of a race and hopefully some of you reverted to the figures once the runners started dropping  like flies.

There has been word in the past that the winner may eventually end up going hurdling and although I am a dyed in the wool National Hunt man I don't think I would be too keen on that option, he surely has enough to offer on the flat without going pot-hunting over timber?

BDH Review…

I'm stepping back 2 Saturday's to seek out our new squad member...

Race in focus: 3.30 Ripon (17-08-2013): William Hill Great St Wilfrid Stakes – 6f, Class 2 Handicap (20 ran)

How the race played out…

Great St Wilf review

Pace wise this was all about the low numbers. As mentioned in my race analysis for the Great St Wilf the pace looked to be coming from middle to low and large field sprints over the Ripon 6f weigh heavily in favour of those drawn in the low stalls. The field split into 2 groups (as is the norm in this contest) with 8 staying high and the rest sticking to the far rail. Confirmed front-runner and track specialist  SPINATRIX was the one to pull the field along from her 1 stall, closely followed by RODRIGO DE TORRES from his 7 stall. SPINATRIX held the front spot for most of the contest and it was her strong front-running tactics that were one of the main contributing factors to the low to middle dominance of this race.  There were also a large group of the low-middle runners that were sitting close to the pace and this again made sure that the high numbers had their work cut out to get involved. From up high it was DR RED EYE that tried to lead his side along but despite his valiant effort he was always up against it.

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The end result clearly showed that it was an advantage to be drawn low with the first 4 home being drawn in stall 9 or below, anything finishing in the ball park from up high deserves our utmost attention.

The end result…

We know all about the winner BACCARAT. He was on our BDH list, he was in the prime spot throughout the race and was able to pick up the pace-setting Spinatrix in the final 50 or so yards. The Fahey youngster probably has more to come and it will be very interesting to see where they go from here. 2nd placed SPINATRIX ran a career best on the figures and although she may still just be improving her new mark of 105 could start to make life pretty tricky. If she doesn't prove up to that mark then it will be interesting if her mark drops back down enough to be competitive in the 2014 renewal of this race (*makes a mental note for August 2014!). 3rd placed RODRIGO DE TORRES ran a highly credible race and he is on a mark he can score from if conditions are correct. 4th home REGAL PARADE easily did best of those that tried to come from out the back and although he was under the pump fairly early on he did keep responding and was doing his best work late on. He is a 9yo now but his mark is creeping down all the time and he has been producing some consistent figures, it would be no surprise to see him pop into the winners enclosure before the season is out. 5th home SUMMERINTHECITY was the first home from the high numbers and that may be simply due to the fact his jockey shifted him closer to the middle of the track at the 3f pole. He looks on a tricky handicap mark at the minute and my personal feeling is that he needs to drop at least a few lbs before winning again. Next home from the top group, and filling 6th spot overall, was the Scott Dixon trained THUNDERBALL. This would have been ground he wouldn't have appreciated and from his extremely tricky draw in stall 17 he put in a very eye-catching performance.

BDH to follow…

THUNDERBALL (6th) (S Dixon)

As already mentioned in detail those drawn high were at a significant disadvantage. THUNDERBALL in box 17 had no choice really but to stay high and essentially his cards were marked as soon as Spinatrix in stall 1 blasted off in the lead. He is also very much a horse that relies on Soft underfoot conditions to produce his best and as such the Good ground he met was also unlikely to suit him. With those 2 major factors against him his 6 length 6th is a very eye-catching performance indeed.

Staying with his ground preferences here is the breakdown of his form figures on different conditions...

Heavy - 0 wins from 2 starts

Soft - 4 wins from 9 starts

Good to Soft or better - 1 win from 40 starts

A/W - 5 wins from 29

Interestingly all 4 of his turf victories have been over 6 furlongs and all 5 of his A/W victories have been over 7f or 8f; a clear indicator that on the turf his ideal trip is 6f.

As it is the turf we are really concerned with here lets take a bit of a closer look...

First up his Soft ground form line reads an impressive 323611011; clearly he loves running when the ground is officially described as Soft.

On the distance side of things here are the breakdowns over the different trips...

6f - 5 wins from 19 starts

6 1/2f or further - 0 wins from 32 starts

6 furlongs the ideal trip? I'd say that's an affirmative!

If we squeeze things up just a touch more and look ONLY at his 6f form on Soft ground we get a rather impressive form line of 1111. Those 4 wins were gained from handicap marks of 91-86-90-85. He currently sits on OR 90 and the figures and visual evidence tells us that is a mark he is more than capable of running well from, indeed he is more than capable of winning from.

Conditions – Essentially we are looking for 6 furlongs and soft! Simple! He is currently on a mark that he has proven he can win from in the past so from a handicapping perspective this mark or below is where we want him.

He is yet to prove he is up to winning a really valuable contest (20k+) but if he gets his conditions it would not be hard to see him running well in such a race. 4 of his 5 turf wins have come on a straight track and although that condition isn't a necessity it probably is preferable.

In summary we want 6 furlongs on soft from a mark of 90 or below. The probable area for him to strike will be in a less than 20k to the winner race on a straight track although I would be flexible on that score.

THUNDERBALL now enters my Proform ‘Horse Watcher’ tool and I will post on the Blog when he is due to run next.

Ben (BDH)

p.s. Thanks to those of you that joined my SkyBet Super 6 mini league. We can at least try and beat each other as we try and nail that £250,000 first prize!

p.p.s I will have a free guide available soon to all members of the FREE service. It concerns an angle that I follow that can generate huge priced winners! If you are not on the Free service then you won't get the guide. 

Sat TV Trends: 17th Aug 2013

St Wilfrid

A Huge Day At Ripon This Saturday........

Andy Newton’s got all the trends & stats you need ahead of the LIVE C4 action from Newbury, Newmarket and Ripon this Saturday... Read more

Sat TV Trends: 27th April 2013

Sandown Park

Who'll Be Landing Gold At Sandown?

It's Bet365 Gold Cup day at Sandown Park, while the C4 cameras are also heading to Ripon for a couple or races - As always we've got all the LIVE TV trends ......
Read more

Trainer Stats: 26th Sept 2012

Anything Willie Mullins Runs Should Be Respected

Andy Newton has six in-form trainers to look out for this week...... Read more

Well I Declare: 28th August to 1st September

Well I Declare: 28th August

Well I Declare: 28th August

Mal Boyle is currently away on a well-deserved break, but he has prepared your regular racing preview in advance of his trip: here are his thoughts on the week ahead...

I am away for a three/four days this week whereby I apologise for the slightly edited version of the service. I have put together everything I could, considering I am leaving overnight on Monday….hoping that the facts and stats produce more winners for you. Meetings have a hit or miss look about them after a Bank Holiday with new meetings added to the racing calendar where needed.  If this coincides with a leap year (which it did this time around) trends go out of the window. 

‘Leap Year’ never helps regarding fixtures (the powers that be are easily ruffled--one day is enough to put them ‘out of sync‘) and let’s face it, what is the point of ’Leap year’ anyway? Do we really want ‘Venus types’ proposing to us?!!!  Only joking girls, only joking!

Have a great week.


TUESDAY 28/08:

Epsom:

General stats: Julian Wilson was not my ‘cup of tea’ in the old days when the presenter aired his ‘upper class views’ on racing though one point I agreed with was his lack of understanding relating to how the (supposed) greatest flat race in the world (The Derby) could be staged at this Switchback track.  I could never bring myself to stake too much of my hard-earned wages on a track where so many horses ’fail to act’.   Upwards and onwards however by suggesting that Seb Sanders (13/49) and Kieren Fallon (10/39) can certainly ride horses that are unaffected by the camber around the twists and turns to good effect.  Sir Mark Prescott (11/26) and Scott Dixon (3/6) seemingly whisper the right words in the ears of their representatives from a training perspective.

2.15: A Richard Hannon representative was beaten two necks in the inaugural contest in 2009, though the trainer has subsequently made amends by winning the next two renewals.  Richard is represented by Lisa’s Legacy this time around and though the Kyllachy colt was beaten six lengths last time out, the March colt was far too good for the other three contenders and this race represents a definite chance of going one better by scoring at the fourth time of asking.  The only favourite to finish in the frame via three renewals to date was the 2010 winner.

2.50: Jim Boyle secured the inaugural contest back in 2009 and his Pastoral Pursuits raider Perfect Pastime could score here, especially with Seb Sanders in the saddle.  Few jockeys can equal Seb’s mastery of the switchback track and Jim’s four-year-old could be the answer to a difficult puzzle.  Seb’s recent 27% strike rate at the venue makes for even more impressive reading when taking into account his sixty-seven LSP figure.

3.25: Andrew Balding has only saddled one runner in this event via the last three renewals which scored at 11/4 two years ago, whereby the declaration of Van Percy catches the eye.  Favourites have won five of the seven renewals to date and with the other two market leaders having finished second in their respective events, this is one of the best juvenile races on the calendar in terms of the record of ‘jollies’.  The other two winners scored at 11/4 and 9/1.

3.55: Five of the eight favourites have secured toteplacepot positions via seven renewals during the last decade, statistics which include three successful market leaders.

4.30: Beaten favourite Seven Veils might be worth another chance in this grade/company, especially taking Sir Mark Prescott’s 11/26 ratio at Epsom into account. Three of the four market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions via three renewals, statistics which include one (11/4) winner.

 

Ripon:

General stats: Brian Meehan only sent a few raiders up to York last week but the trainer still recorded some decent results and Brian’s record of 5/24 at this venue reads well enough given the competitive nature of the sport in these parts. 

2.00: Unusually for races confined to three and four-year-olds, the older horses had dominated this race until last year's junior gold medallist scored at odds of 1/3 to bring a halt to five consecutive victories for the four-year-olds.

2.30: Four of the seven favourites (via six renewals) have secured toteplacepot positions thus far, statistics which include three of the last four winners.

3.05: Favourites come to the gig on a hat trick though market leaders have only secured three victories during the last decade.  Six of the ten market leaders have finished in the frame during the study period.

3.40: Tim Easterby comes to the party on a hat trick, though his representative Shrimper Roo will have to improve on Sunday's Beverley effort to figure in proceedings at the business end of the equation. The last ten winners have scored at odds of 7/1 or less, statistics which include three successful market leaders.

4.15: Ed Dunlop has saddled a few winners of late (overdue for a trainer who is not enjoying the best of seasons) and Ed is one of just two handlers who are in tune to the vintage stats in this event.  Four-year-olds have secured three of the last five renewals, yet just Ed's raider Voodoo Prince and Watts Up Son (Declan Carroll) have been declared via fourteen contenders!

4.45: Four-year-olds rule the waves again here according to the gospel of yours truly as vintage representatives have secured half (3/6) the available toteplacepot positions in this event, statistics which include both (3/1 & 2/1) winners.

5.15: The lone four-year-old in the line-up twelve months ago failed to secure a fifth consecutive victory for the vintage

 

Southwell:

General stats: Frankie Dettori has ridden three of his five mounts in recent years at Southwell to winning effect, whilst Jamie Spencer’s 29/80 ratio (LSP reading of thirty-five points) makes for impressive reading.

 

Sedgefield:

General stats: Overlay potentially represents Lawney Hill in the scheduled 4.40 event with the trainer boasting superb 3/3 stats at Sedgefield in recent years.  Even if Overlay is re-routed elsewhere, I will leave the stat in place for your benefit relating to the future meetings at the racecourse. 

 

WEDNESDAY 29/08:

Carlisle:

General stats: Sir Mark Prescott held two options at the Cumbrian circuit at the weekend, Mark having saddled three of his four runners at the racecourse to winning effect in recent years. 


Catterick:

General stats: Sir Mark Prescott held two options at the time of writing, the trainer attempting to build on his 23% strike rate at venue during the last five years. 

2.10: Three favourites have won via eight renewals during the last decade.  Seven of the eight winners have scored at odds of 7/1 or less.

2.40: All eight winners during the last decade have been sent off at 10/1 or less, statistics which include three successful market leaders.

3.10: Five of the seven winners thus far have been burdened with a minimum weight of 9-7. Three favourites have won since the inaugural running back in 2005 during which time.

3.40: The last seven gold medallists have carried weights of 9-2 or less.  Successful market leaders have only been conspicuous by their absence via eight contests during the last decade.  That said, three of the last four favourites have secured toteplacepot positions.

4.10: Six of the last nine available toteplacepot positions have been claimed by horses sent off in double figures, statistics which include the last two (16/1 & 14/1) winners. Four renewals have slipped by since the first two favourites obliged back in 2005/6.

4.40: The last six winners of the toteplacepot finale carried a maximum burden of 9-1. All eight winners during the last decade have scored at odds of 10/1 or less, statistics which include two successful market leaders.

5.10 & 5.45 (two divisions of the contest): Six of the eight winners during the last decade carried a maximum burden of nine stones during which time, just one favourite has obliged. The other seven winners were sent off at odds ranging between 7/1 and 25/1, which four gold medallists returned in double figures.

 

Kempton:

General stats: Michael J Murphy’s 4/7 strike rate from the saddle in recent times attracts the eye in no uncertain terms.  Michael’s figures include a positive level stake profit of over twenty points during the period.

 

Wolverhampton:

General stats: Roger Varian would have hoped for a better Ebor meeting but a week is a long time in the sport of kings whereby Roger will be attempting to improve his impressive Wolverhampton strike rate of 7/15 at Dunstall Park.

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Worcester:

General stats: Rachel Green continues to excel at the track having now ridden eleven winners from just twenty-one opportunities.  The incredible ratio has produced a level stake profit of eighty-five points.

 

THURSDAY 30/08:

Apologies for the lack of a main meeting on which to offer stats and facts.  Every now and then (because of Bank Holiday schedules usually), a day occurs when ‘new meetings’ generally rule the roost whereby no trends are in place….and this is one such occasion. Lingfield ‘ripping up their carpet’ did not help on this occasion!

 

Hamilton:

General stats: William Haggas has saddled five of his twelve runners at Hamilton to winning effect thus far, whilst Jeremy Noseda’s 2/5 ratio is worth noting. 

 

Lingfield:

General stats: Derek Haydn Jones boasts 3/7 figures in recent years, statistics which have produced an LSP figure of ten points. However, Roger Charlton record of 7/17 during the last five years makes for even more impressive reading.

 

Kempton:

General stats: The yellow and blue stars colours of Pearl Bloodstock have been prominent at Kempton in recent years, claiming eleven successes from just twenty-three runners.  The stats have helped to achieve a level stake profit of thirty-five points. The other positive factor is that the colours are easy to spot, even in a big field!

 

Fontwell:

General stats: Nicky Henderson (38% strike rate) and Donald McCain (33%) lead the figures of the potentially represented trainers at Fontwell on Thursday, whilst Renee Robeson’s (2/8) runners might be worth a saver.

 

Hereford:

General stats: Jim Best will not want this venue to close down, given that the trainer boasts figures of 7/21 (eight points LSP) whilst John Ferguson’s rare visits have paid via 2/4 figures. 

 

Stratford:

General stats: I hope I have alerted you to the training talents of Richard Woolacott in recent weeks and months and this is one of the venues to focus on given Richard’s 2/4 ratio. 

 

FRIDAY 31/08:

Further interruption to the service on Friday as trends for Sandown and Salisbury (alongside the other potential venues) are only conspicuous by their absence.

 

Salisbury:

General stats: Richard Price has saddled an average of fourteen winners a year of late whereby his current total of six is a disappointing return.  Richard’s record at Salisbury offers hope for potential investors however as the trainer boasts a 26% strike rate via five winners during the last five years, statistics which have yielded twenty points of level stake profits for good measure. 

 

Sandown:

General stats: Sir Mark Prescott (33%) and Jeremy Noseda (32%) lead the potential trainers at the meeting from a strike rate perspective. 

 

Thirsk:

General stats: I doubt that Kieren Fallon will take up the option of one ride he had booked at the track as Sandown held more engagements for the ex champion at the time of writing.  That said, I should point out Kieren’s 3/5 ratio at Thirsk for future meetings.

One mile juvenile event scheduled for 2.10: Trainers do not help the cause at times because Mick Channon has saddled three winners of this event when represented in the contest and yes you guessed it, Mick did not have a runner involved at the five day stage!  I have left the information in the analysis for your convenience for the 2013 contest.  Only one of the four short priced favourites has even reached the frame (an 8/13 chance) with the winners being returned at 11/3-5/1-12/1-18/1 to date.

Two mile handicap event scheduled for 2.40: Both favourites have finished out of the (short field) frames thus far behind 7/1 and 11/2 winners.

Three-year-old handicap over six furlongs scheduled for 3.50: Two of the three favourites (including an 11/4 winner) have secured toteplacepot positions to date.

Classified event over six furlongs due to be contested at 4.25: Two of the three favourites have finished in the frame, statistics which include a successful 4/6 market leader.

Class 4 seven furlong handicap scheduled for 4.55: The only favourite to secure a toteplacepot position via four renewals to date was the winner of one of the two divisions of the 2010 contest at odds of 4/1.

 

Wolverhampton:

General stats: William Knight held two options on the card at the time of writing, boasting a 26% strike rate at Wolverhampton via eleven winners during the last five years.

 

Bangor:

General stats: Richard Johnson leads Tony McCoy from both a strike rate and a level stake profit perspective at Bangor, recording respective figures of 26% and thirty-three points during the last five years.  Martin Todhunter’s 24% strike rate (4/17) is worth noting, especially as the trainer has secured an LSP figure of nine points into the bargain.

 

SATURDAY 01/09:

Bath:

General stats: Roberts Cowell’s 4/6 ratio at Bath suggests that we could be making a decent profit on Saturday if the trainer offers the green light to any of his runners.


Beverley:

General stats: Marco Botti held two options earlier in the week having saddled both runners to winning effect at the Yorkshire venue thus far. 

 

Chester:

General stats: Sir Mark Prescott’s 5/11 ratio on the Roodee stands out from the crowd.

 

Sandown:

General stats: Luke Dace (3/13) is worth a second glance when he declares representatives at the Esher venue.

Class 3 all aged five furlong handicap scheduled for 2.15: One clear market leader and three joint favourites have won, whilst 10 of the 19 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions in the process.

Group 3 ‘Solario Stakes’ scheduled for 2.50: Mark Johnston has saddled two of the last six winners with Mark’s only option at five-day stage being his ‘Acomb’ runner up Steeler. Three favourites have scored during the last 14 years, whilst six of the fifteen market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions in the process.

Group ’Atlanta Stakes’ scheduled for 3.25:  Sir Michael Stoute has saddled two of the last six winners and his recent Listed race runner-up Dank was Michael’s only at the five-day stage. Just two favourites have scored during the last decade though that said, the biggest priced winner during the period was a 17/2 chance.  Five of the 11 market leaders during the period have secured toteplacepot positions.

All aged ten furlong handicap event due to be contested at 4.00: Four-year-olds have claimed eight of the last 11 renewals, whilst 10 of the last 12 winners have carried weights of 9-1 or more. Two clear market leaders and three joint favourites have won during the study period, whilst 11 of the 18 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions in the process.

Nursery event scheduled for 4.30: Five of the last 12 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include three winners.

 

Market Rasen:

General stats: Ian Williams (7/29) and David Bridgwater (3/11) are two trainers to look out for at the tea-time meeting.

 

Newton Abbot:

General stats: Gordon Elliot (7/18) and Gary Brown (4/12) are alternative trainers to note alongside more obvious handlers such as Paul Nicholls (32% strike rate during the last five years via 42 winners producing a thirty point LSP figure).

Well I Declare, 18th August

Well I Declare: 18th August

Well I Declare: 18th August

Good Morning and welcome to your final instalment of this week's Well I Declare feature. Mal Boyle wrote the original piece way back on Tuesday, so here's a recap of his thought's on today's action from no less than seven meetings from Chester, Doncaster, Newbury, Newmarket, Ripon, Lingfield & Market Rasen.


SATURDAY 18/08:

Chester:

General stats: Marco Botti and Jim Boyle boast 3/9 ratios on the Roodee at the time of writing, albeit the percentage pales in comparison to Sir Mark Prescott’s impressive 5/10 haul at Chester. 

 

Doncaster:

General stats: Just one of the first three favourites won on last year’s card but far worse was to follow because in keeping with other results up and down the country during the corresponding period, the last five winners were sent off at 14/1-12/1-12/1-11/1-9/1.

 

Newbury:

General stats: Richard Hannon secured a 74/1 double on the second day of the meeting twelve months ago via winners at 14/1 and 4/1.  Three of the eight favourites prevailed with seven winners returned at 9/1 or less. 

Class 4 juvenile event for fillies over six furlongs scheduled for 1.30:  Richard Hannon has won four of the last seven renewals (14/1 winner last year) and with five entries at the penultimate stage, the trainer was obviously intent on improving his ratio.  Eight favourites have won via the last sixteen renewals, whilst ten market leaders secured toteplacepot positions in the process.

'Draw factor' (six furlongs):

10-2-1 (9 ran-good--latest result first)

10-4 (7 ran-good)

11-10-13 (11 ran-good to soft)

1-4-11 (10 ran-good to firm)

7-8-6 (11 ran-good to firm)

12-4-8 (15 ran-good to soft)

5-12-7 (15 ran-good to soft)

9-5-7 (11 ran-good)

3-7-10 (11 ran-good)

7-5-15 (15 ran-good to firm)

16-3-4 (15 ran-good to firm)

6-2-8 (10 ran-good to soft)

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6-11-8 (11 ran-good to soft)

2-1 (7 ran-good to firm)

11-13-2 (13 ran-good to firm)

1-10-15 (21 ran-good to firm)

‘Washington Singer’ event scheduled for 2.00: John Gosden was winning the race for the third time in the last seven years 12 months ago and the trainer’s only entry earlier in the week was Excess Knowledge.  Mark Johnston has saddled two gold medallists during the John’s recent reign and Steeler was the only entry from Mark’s stable at the five-day stage.  Six clear market leaders and two joint favourites have obliged during the last fourteen years.  Nine of the fifteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions in the process.

Group 3 event thirteen furlong event scheduled for 2.30:  Seven of the last twelve favourites have won whilst four-year-olds have snared four of the last seven renewals of this ‘Geoffrey Freer’ contest.

Group 2 Hungerford Stakes due to be contests at 3.05:  Four-year-olds have won five of the last eleven renewals, though three-year-olds have won three of the last four contests.  Four clear marker leaders and one joint favourite have won in the last fourteen years.  Seven of the sixteen favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions in the process.

'Draw factor' (seven furlongs):

3-7-11 (9 ran-good)

6-9 (7 ran-good to soft)

6-4-10 (9 ran-good to firm)

4-2-6 (9 ran-good to soft)

3-2-10 (10 ran-good to soft)

8-2 (7 ran-good to soft)

8-3-5 (9 ran-good)

7-11-6 (13 ran-good)

4-5-6 (11 ran-good to firm)

6-3-8 (10 ran-good to firm)

6-2 (7 ran-good to firm)

5-1-7 (8 ran-good to firm)

5-2 (7 ran-good)

4-2-9 (9 ran-good to firm)

Ten furlong 3YO handicap scheduled for 4.10: Six renewals have slipped by since the last (100/30) favourite obliged though that said, the biggest priced winner during the period was a 6/1 chance.  The last five winners carried weights of 9-2 or more.

Lady riders finale scheduled for 4.45: We still await the first successful favourite via five renewals whilst three-year-olds have won three contests thus far.  Sarah Brotherton has secured two gold, one silver and one bronze medal via her last four rides in the race and the pilot was ‘jocked aboard’ both Hamilton Hill and The Quarterjack at the time of writing!

 

Newmarket:

General stats: In contrast to the rest of the week, the last three favourites (of seven) at the meeting sent the majority of punters home happy.  Only Mick Channon (16/1), Tony Carroll (11/1), Mahmood Al Zarooni (8/1) and David Barron (8/1) scored on behalf of the layers. 

 

Ripon:

General stats: Tim Easterby secured a 58/1 double at the meeting twelve months ago, having also saddled a 12/1 winner at Doncaster earlier in the afternoon, completing a 772/1 treble on the day.

 

Lingfield:

General stats: David Simcock saddled a 30/1 at the meeting last year, whilst Roger Charlton’s 41% strike rate at the course makes for impressive reading.  Having saddled four of his last eleven runners to winning effect at the time of writing, Roger could be set for another good day at ‘Leafy Lingfield’ as it used to be referred to by regulars on the ‘Victoria rattler’ in times gone by.

 

Market Rasen:

General stats: Tim Vaughan, Peter Bowen and David Pipe invariably saddle winners at this time of year and sure enough, each of the three trainers was in the area reserved for the winner of one race apiece on the card twelve months ago.

Sat TV Trends: 18th Aug 2012

We’ve got all the trends you need ahead of the LIVE C4 action from Newbury, Newmarket and Ripon this Saturday... Read more

Trainer Stats: 15th Aug 2012

Tregoning Horses Are Hitting The Mark

See who is on Andy Newton’s ‘HOT TRAINERS’ list this week....... Read more

Stat of the Day, 21st June 2012

Stat of the Day 21/6/12

Stat of the Day 21/6/12

Stat of the Day: 21st June 2012

Yesterday was a good one for followers of SotD. Our 16/1 E/W shot Mzuri Bay attracted a fair amount of support before going off at 11/1. he was at the head of the field for much of the race, a couple of niggly jumping errors didn't seem to faze him, but he didn't have enough left at the end to seriously challenge the eventual 3/1 winner. He did, however,  take 2nd place and a nice return for us all.

We're off to the scenic Yorkshire Dales today for a Class 6 handicap over a mile and a half on good ground. The Amateur Lady jockeys take centre stage for this one and twelve are due to compete in the...

4.35 Ripon

Our selection today is Dimashq, not a horse you'd generally find attractive as a betting proposition. She's an old warrior nowadays, at the age of 10 and her record since turning 4 yrs old isn't that noteworthy: just 5 wins from 53. However those 5 wins helped to generate a level stakes profit of 16pts. Of those 53 races, just 5 took place at Ripon, but those 5 races provided two winners (at 25/1 and 14/1).

It's also interesting to note that those two Ripon wins came on Dimashq's last two attempts at this race, so she clearly likes the course and distance and seems to be "ready" at this time of year. She's paired up with Miss W Gibson once again, who piloted the horse to those two previous victories in this event. It might be a bit of a tall order to expect the hat-trick, but Dimashq runs off exactly the same mark as last year and is no stranger to big-priced wins.

I'm hoping for more of the same today and I've already taken some of bet365's 14/1 E/W BOG, but you can as always...

Click here for the latest odds on the 4.35 Ripon.

Trainer Stats: 9th May 2012

Ruth Carr's Horses Are Revving....

This week there are a few smaller stables to look out for on Andy Newton's hot trainers list........ Read more

Sat TV Trends: 28th Apr 2012

Favourites Have A Bad Record In The Bet365 Gold Cup

Did you know the last outright favourite to win Saturday’s Bet365 Gold Cup was in 1990? Read more

Trainer Stats: 26th April 2012

Roger Varian Has His String In Fine Form

Andy Newton highlights 8 flat trainers that are starting the new season on the front foot........... Read more

Trainer Stats: 19th April 2012

Emma Lavelle Has Her String In Cracking Order

Andy Newton continues with his weekly look on the yards that are worth keeping on the right side of. Read more

Trainer Trends – 22nd Sept

Mick Easterby

Mick Easterby Will Be Praying For A Change of Fortune

It’s that time of the week again as Andy Newton highlights which trainers have been hitting the high notes, while he’s also got a big name handler whose runners might be best avoided at present. Read more