Posts

Stat of the Day, 22nd March 2018

Wednesday's Runner was...

8.15 Kempton : Sparkalot @ 5/2 BOG WON at 11/10 (Chased leaders, driven over 1f out, led inside final furlong, ran on to win by half a length)

Next up is Thursday's...

5.15 Ludlow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Flashing Glance @ 5/1 BOG

A Class 3, 2m handicap hurdle (4yo+) on soft ground worth £7,863 to the winner...

Why?

This 5 yr old gelding has made the frame in each of his last three starts, winning once and was third last time out on handicap debut in a higher grade. He has rested over the winter and a second crack at a handicap at a lower grade might just do the trick today.

Trainer Tom Lacey has saddled four winners from just seven runners over the last fortnight, whilst since the start of 2016, his NH handicappers are 31/118 (26.3% SR) for 84.3pts (+71.% ROI) profit, from which the following are relevant and applicable today...

  • November-April : 28/97 (28.9%) for 91.4pts (+94.2%)
  • hurdlers : 24/90 (26.7%) for 83.6pts (+92.9%)
  • top 3 finisher LTO : 21/69 (30.4%) for 62.3pts (+90.3%)
  • 5 yr olds are 14/47 (29.8%) for 57.7pts (+122.8%)
  • on Soft ground : 14/45 (31.1%) for 67pts (+148.9%)
  • at Class 3 : 6/36 (16.7%) for 23.8pts (+66%)
  • late season (ie Mar-Apr) : 9/25 (36%) for 16.8pts (+67.1%)
  • ridden by Robert Dunne : 8/23 (34.8%) for 35.8pts (+155.4%)
  • placed 3rd LTO : 5/15 933.3%) for 24.1pts (+160.6%)
  • down 1 class : 5/11 945.5%) for 24.1pts (+219.3%)
  • 4 to 10 months off track : 3/7 (42.9%) for 7.4pts (+105.7%)
  • and here at Ludlow : 1/1 (100%) for 1.79pts (+179%)

A secondary layer of reassurance comes from the fact that also since the start of 2016, handicap jumpers sired by Passing Glance are 8 from 49 (16.3% SR) for 26pts (+53% ROI) on soft or worse ground, including...

  • males at 8/38 (21.1%) for 37pts (+97.2%)
  • on Soft : 7/32 (21.9%) for 8.7pts (+27.2%)
  • males on Soft : 7/24 (29.2%) for 16.7pts (+69.6%)
  • Class 3 : 2/9 (22.2%) for 2.35pts (+26.1%)
  • and Class 3 males on Soft are 2/5 (40%) for 6.35pts (+127%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Flashing Glance @ 5/1 BOG which was available from Betfair & Paddy Power (the first two to show) at 5.25pm on Wednesday, with some 6/1 BOG offered by Bet365 for those lucky/quick enough to get on! To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.15 Ludlow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 4th December 2017

Saturday's Result :

2.25 Newbury : High Bridge @ 10/3 BOG WON at 9/4 Made all and set steady pace, quickened approaching 3 out, joined last, ridden and kept on gamely when strongly pressed run-in, on top towards finish, winning by a length and a quarter.

We start a fresh week via Monday's...

1.40 Plumpton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Jester Jet @ 3/1 BOG

Download TTS 2018/19 Completely Free - Click here

A Class 3, 4yo+ Mares Handicap Hurdle over 3m 1.5f on Good to Soft ground worth £8,772 to the winner.

A consistent 7 yr old mare is my pick today, she has 7 top 3 finishes from her last 8 starts, winning three times. She has one win and one place from two runs at 3 miles and beyond and since a switch to Tom Lacey's yard she has 3 wins and 2 places from 5 starts, all ridden by today's jockey Robert Dunne.

Trainer Tom Lacey is one to look out for / follow and he consistently knocks in winners at a rate of 1 in 5. His 90 day/60 day/30 day/14 day returns all show a 20% strike rate and he's one of those few trainers to show a profit from blindly backing all runners over the last two years, as his 42 winners from 220 (19.1% SR) have produced profits of 182.2pts at an excellent ROI of some 82.8%.

And in the context of today's race, we can break those 220 runners down as follows...

  • October to April = 31/156 (19.9%) for 193.4pts (+124%)
  • hurdlers are 31/140 (22.1%) for 152.5pts (+109%)
  • his only runner at the track that day : 25/131 (19.1%) for 113pts (+86.2%)
  • his only runner of the day : 21/107 (19.6%) for 99pts (+92.6%)
  • over trips of 2m3f and beyond : 24/103 (23.3%) for 95.2pts (+92.4%)
  • in handicaps : 19/85 (22.4%) for 48.2pts (+56.7%)
  • in handicaps over 2m3f and beyond : 16/69 (23.1%) for 36.3pts (+52.6%)
  • handicap hurdlers are 16/67 (23.9%) for 51.2pts (+76.4%)
  • handicappers that are his only runner at the track that day : 15/58 (25.9%) for 55pts (+94.8%)
  • handicappers that are his only runner of the day : 13/46 (28.3%) for 54.4pts (+118.2%)
  • in handicaps from November to January : 10/33 (30.3%) for 47.8pts (+145%)
  • those ridden by Robert Dunne are 6/23 (26.1%) for 9pts (+39%)
  • and handicappers ridden by Robert Dunne are 5/15 (33.3%) for 10.8pts (+72.3%)

..giving us... a 1pt win bet on Jester Jet @ 3/1 BOG which was available fin at least a half dozen places at 9.25pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.40 Plumpton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 4th December 2017

Saturday's Result :

2.25 Newbury : High Bridge @ 10/3 BOG WON at 9/4 Made all and set steady pace, quickened approaching 3 out, joined last, ridden and kept on gamely when strongly pressed run-in, on top towards finish, winning by a length and a quarter.

We start a fresh week via Monday's...

1.40 Plumpton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Jester Jet @ 3/1 BOG

A Class 3, 4yo+ Mares Handicap Hurdle over 3m 1.5f on Good to Soft ground worth £8,772 to the winner.

A consistent 7 yr old mare is my pick today, she has 7 top 3 finishes from her last 8 starts, winning three times. She has one win and one place from two runs at 3 miles and beyond and since a switch to Tom Lacey's yard she has 3 wins and 2 places from 5 starts, all ridden by today's jockey Robert Dunne.

Trainer Tom Lacey is one to look out for / follow and he consistently knocks in winners at a rate of 1 in 5. His 90 day/60 day/30 day/14 day returns all show a 20% strike rate and he's one of those few trainers to show a profit from blindly backing all runners over the last two years, as his 42 winners from 220 (19.1% SR) have produced profits of 182.2pts at an excellent ROI of some 82.8%.

And in the context of today's race, we can break those 220 runners down as follows...

  • October to April = 31/156 (19.9%) for 193.4pts (+124%)
  • hurdlers are 31/140 (22.1%) for 152.5pts (+109%)
  • his only runner at the track that day : 25/131 (19.1%) for 113pts (+86.2%)
  • his only runner of the day : 21/107 (19.6%) for 99pts (+92.6%)
  • over trips of 2m3f and beyond : 24/103 (23.3%) for 95.2pts (+92.4%)
  • in handicaps : 19/85 (22.4%) for 48.2pts (+56.7%)
  • in handicaps over 2m3f and beyond : 16/69 (23.1%) for 36.3pts (+52.6%)
  • handicap hurdlers are 16/67 (23.9%) for 51.2pts (+76.4%)
  • handicappers that are his only runner at the track that day : 15/58 (25.9%) for 55pts (+94.8%)
  • handicappers that are his only runner of the day : 13/46 (28.3%) for 54.4pts (+118.2%)
  • in handicaps from November to January : 10/33 (30.3%) for 47.8pts (+145%)
  • those ridden by Robert Dunne are 6/23 (26.1%) for 9pts (+39%)
  • and handicappers ridden by Robert Dunne are 5/15 (33.3%) for 10.8pts (+72.3%)

..giving us... a 1pt win bet on Jester Jet @ 3/1 BOG which was available fin at least a half dozen places at 9.25pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.40 Plumpton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 5th December 2016

Saturday's Result :

12.00 Aintree : Evening Hush @ 100/30 BOG WON at 7/2 (Made all, drew clear from 2 out, won easily by 21 lengths)

Monday's pick goes in the...

1.00 Ludlow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Guanciale @ 5/1 BOG

Download TTS 2018/19 Completely Free - Click here

Why?

This 9 yr old gelding was a winner by 7 lengths over fences on his last run, 29 days ago, at Ffos Las. He's trained by Dai Burchell, who might not be a familiar name to all to you, but he's one to keep an eye on in the long run.

Dai interests me because if you'd blindly backed every one of his NH handicappers since the start of 2012, you'd be looking at 42 winners from (14.2% SR) for level stakes profits of 111.7pts at an excellent ROI of 37.9%. I need to stress that these are blind unfiltered figures, but with some refinement, we can reduce the number of bets and increase the ROI via some simple, logical filters as follows...

  • those runners aged 7 and over are 36/238 (15.1%) for 137.9pts (+57.9%)
  • those last seen 11-60 days ago are 34/206 (16.5%) for 117.1pts (+56.8%)
  • over trips of 16.5f to 21.5f : 27/161 (16.8%) for 85.2pts (+52.9%)
  • chasers are 29/151 (19.2%) for 97.9pts (+64.9%)
  • those ridden by Robert Dunne are 24/148 (16.2%) for 96.1pts (64.9%)
  • and at Class 4 : 20/125 (16%) for 51.3pts

AND runners fitting all of the above criteria are 6 from 22 (27.3% SR) for 23.1pts (+104.8% ROI).

In addition to the above conditon-specific stats, it's also worth knowing that since the start of 2010, male Class 4 chasers wih owere winners of a handicap chase by 2 to 10 lengths LTO 11-150 days ago are 148/563 (26.3% SR) for 103.4pts (+18.4% ROI), of which...

  • 11-45 dslr = 136/494 (27.5%) for 91.2pts (+18.5%)
  • won by 5-1o lengths LTO = 71/233 (30.5%) for 63.4pts (+27.2%)
  • 9 yr olds are 36/128 (28.1%) for 59.5pts (+46.5%)

AND...9 yr olds who won by 11 to 45 days ago by 5 to 10 lengths are 19/49 (38.9% SR) for 48.6pts (+99.2% ROI)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Guanciale at 5/1 BOG from Bet365 (preferred), Hills and/or BetVictor, as of 6.55pm on Sunday. To see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.00 Ludlow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Stat of the Day, 5th December 2016

Saturday's Result :

12.00 Aintree : Evening Hush @ 100/30 BOG WON at 7/2 (Made all, drew clear from 2 out, won easily by 21 lengths)

Monday's pick goes in the...

1.00 Ludlow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Guanciale @ 5/1 BOG

Why?

This 9 yr old gelding was a winner by 7 lengths over fences on his last run, 29 days ago, at Ffos Las. He's trained by Dai Burchell, who might not be a familiar name to all to you, but he's one to keep an eye on in the long run.

Dai interests me because if you'd blindly backed every one of his NH handicappers since the start of 2012, you'd be looking at 42 winners from (14.2% SR) for level stakes profits of 111.7pts at an excellent ROI of 37.9%. I need to stress that these are blind unfiltered figures, but with some refinement, we can reduce the number of bets and increase the ROI via some simple, logical filters as follows...

  • those runners aged 7 and over are 36/238 (15.1%) for 137.9pts (+57.9%)
  • those last seen 11-60 days ago are 34/206 (16.5%) for 117.1pts (+56.8%)
  • over trips of 16.5f to 21.5f : 27/161 (16.8%) for 85.2pts (+52.9%)
  • chasers are 29/151 (19.2%) for 97.9pts (+64.9%)
  • those ridden by Robert Dunne are 24/148 (16.2%) for 96.1pts (64.9%)
  • and at Class 4 : 20/125 (16%) for 51.3pts

AND runners fitting all of the above criteria are 6 from 22 (27.3% SR) for 23.1pts (+104.8% ROI).

In addition to the above conditon-specific stats, it's also worth knowing that since the start of 2010, male Class 4 chasers wih owere winners of a handicap chase by 2 to 10 lengths LTO 11-150 days ago are 148/563 (26.3% SR) for 103.4pts (+18.4% ROI), of which...

  • 11-45 dslr = 136/494 (27.5%) for 91.2pts (+18.5%)
  • won by 5-1o lengths LTO = 71/233 (30.5%) for 63.4pts (+27.2%)
  • 9 yr olds are 36/128 (28.1%) for 59.5pts (+46.5%)

AND...9 yr olds who won by 11 to 45 days ago by 5 to 10 lengths are 19/49 (38.9% SR) for 48.6pts (+99.2% ROI)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Guanciale at 5/1 BOG from Bet365 (preferred), Hills and/or BetVictor, as of 6.55pm on Sunday. To see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.00 Ludlow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard