Tag Archive for: Roger Varian

Roger Varian looking at exciting autumn with Sandown winners

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Roger Varian saw his patience rewarded, as both Lady Of Spain and Saddadd set themselves up for big events in the autumn in giving the Carlburg Stables handler a big-race double at Sandown.

Lady Of Spain headed to the BetMGM Atalanta Stakes with an unbeaten record to protect, but had defy a lengthy absence in her first outing since claiming Listed glory at Deauville in December.

Sent off at 14-1 for what was also her first outing on turf, she made it five from five with a game display to continue climbing the ladder and bring Group One options into play.

The winner was halved in price to 10-1 for the Sun Chariot Stakes by Paddy Power, but Varian has also half an eye on a step up in trip for the Prix de l’Opera at ParisLongchamp on the same weekend.

Speaking from Deauville, Varian said: “The filly is very good, we’ve always thought that and she could be top class.

“It was a hell of a performance today having not run for nine months and also her first run on turf, so you couldn’t be more proud of the way she won the Atalanta.

“We entered her in the Sun Chariot and the Prix de l’Opera and they were not off the cuff entries, we made them because we have a lot of belief in this filly.

“Time will tell if she is a Group One filly, but she is an unbeaten Group Three winner with only five starts under her belt and we have every reason to believe she will be good.”

Saddadd (right) won well at Sandown
Saddadd (right) won well at Sandown (Steven Paston/PA)

Quickly following on from Lady Of Spain, stablemate Saddadd confirmed the strong impression of his London Gold Cup victory to further advertise his potential in the Read Meg Nicholls’ Blog At betmgm.co.uk Handicap.

Another whom Varian has been careful to bide his time with, the son of Pinatubo made the most of his opportunity to run in optimum conditions, obliging favourite-backers at 3-1.

“Saddadd is a horse we love and always have done and we’ve had to very patient with him,” added Varian.

“I’d like to thank the owner Sheikh Ahmed Al Maktoum who has not put any pressure on us to run him over the summer and I think that race will set him up for a strong autumn.

“He’s won off 100 there today and will get another rise in the weights and deserves to take his chance in Listed company next.

“We’ll probably look at something like the Doonside Cup at Ayr or the Fortune Stakes at Goodwood.”

The man in the saddle on both occasions was Ray Dawson, who enjoyed a welcome return to the spotlight by bagging his first two winners since returning from a fractured wrist.

Dawson said: “I’m in at Roger’s most days and everyone wants to get winners for him and Roger spreads the rides out very fairly. To get a winner on a Saturday and a big day like this means the world.”

Varian might have headed into the day possibly thinking his best chance of a big winner was his Royal Hunt Cup hero My Cloud, who was running in the Barriere Prix Quincey at Deauville looking for a fifth straight win.

However, having hit the front over a furlong out under Silvestre de Sousa he tired in the closing stages to finish fifth behind Dreamliner, on what was his first taste of action since his win at the Royal fixture. Charlie Hills’ Cicero’s Gift was second.

Lady Of Spain victory ‘means the world’ to Ray Dawson

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Roger Varian’s Lady Of Spain overcame a lengthy absence to remain unbeaten in winning an eventful BetMGM Atalanta Stakes at Sandown.

Last seen landing a Listed race on the Deauville all-weather track in December, that was her fourth win from four outings.

This represented another step up in class to Group Three company, but she looked to face a tough ask when Colin Keane brought the progressive Blue Bolt down the centre of the track.

She began to idle close home, though, and the Sandown hill claimed another victim as Lady Of Spain (14-1) stayed on strongly under Ray Dawson to win by half a length.

Ralph Beckett’s Skellet ran a remarkable race in third, having clipped heels early and nearly being brought down before making impressive headway on just her second start of the season.

The winner was halved in price to 10-1 for the Sun Chariot Stakes by Paddy Power.

It was Dawson’s first winner since returning from a fractured wrist and he said: “I don’t have an awful lot to do with her at home, Roger spoke to me this morning and said they really like her.

“Obviously she’s not run for a while, had never been on turf and was encountering soft ground, so there were a lot of questions we asked of her and in fairness she answered all of them.

“She’s handled conditions and the time off the track has been no problem, so she seems a proper filly.”

On the importance of the winner, he added: “I’m in at Roger’s most days and everyone wants to get winners for him and Roger spreads the rides out very fairly. To get a winner on a Saturday and a big day like this means the world.”

My Cloud makes eagerly-awaited return at Deauville

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My Cloud puts his growing reputation on the line when he heads to Deauville for the Barriere Prix Quincey on Saturday.

Roger Varian’s four-year-old made it four wins on the bounce when landing the Royal Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot. Held in the highest regard by connections, with an entry for the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes later in the season, he faces the acid test of his big-race credentials in France.

“He’s a nice horse and a horse we’re very excited about moving forward through the autumn and also looking ahead to next year,” said Varian.

“It’s a Group Three and I’m delighted with how he’s training and looking forward to seeing how he gets on.”

Connections have had to remain patient since the son of Blue Point struck at the Royal meeting in June, but they are taking encouragement from some of the season’s other stars that My Cloud can take the required next step in his career.

Varian explained: “We never mind waiting if there is a reason to wait, you can’t get too frustrated and he’s a horse with a big future who will be very important for us – if we could have run since Ascot we would have done.

“I think he will take us to some nice races, he has a huge engine and we’ve seen the likes of More Thunder and Never So Brave start off in handicaps before moving on to bigger things this season.

“William Haggas’ horse (More Thunder) all but won the Wokingham and Andrew Balding’s (Never So Brave) won the Buckingham Palace at Royal Ascot and they have both gone on and proven themselves in Pattern company. Hopefully My Cloud can follow their lead, starting at Deauville on Saturday.”

Kevin Ryan’s Volterra, the Charlie Hills-trained Cicero’s Gift and David Menuisier’s Devil’s Point are other British-trained hopefuls in the Group Three event, while Menuisier will also be represented on the card by Sunway in the Lucien Barriere Grand Prix de Deauville.

The Group Two is also the next step for Henri-Francois Devin’s Derby fourth New Ground, who was last seen finishing third in the Grand Prix de Paris.

Barry Mahon, racing manager for owners Juddmonte, said: “It’s a nice opportunity, with not many runners. He’s been in Deauville for the last week and has settled into the environment well and seems to be enjoying himself.

“It’s a nice opportunity for him to stake his claim and tell us whether he’s ready for something big in the autumn or not. He’ll need to settle a bit better than he has on his last couple of starts and a small field in Deauville should give him an opportunity to do that.”

The other Pattern-race action on the card is the Group Three Barriere Prix de Meautry where Ed Walker’s Balmoral Lady and George Boughey’s Pontefract Listed Winner Rosy Affair represent the British raiders.

Saddadd returning to the fray at Sandown on Saturday

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Roger Varian’s patience could be rewarded when his London Gold Cup hero Saddadd takes the next step of his promising career at Sandown on Saturday.

The exciting son of Pinatubo, who is closely related to Ed Walker’s star performer Almaqam, has like many been kept on the sidelines on account of the dry summer since his taking display at Newbury in May.

However, the Carlburg Stables handler is now hoping conditions can prove suitable in Esher for the talented three-year-old to serve a reminder of his potential in the Read Meg Nicholls’ Blog At betmgm.co.uk Handicap.

Varian said: “We’ve been waiting for the ground with Saddadd and I thought we got away with the ground at Newbury in the London Gold Cup. Hopefully Sandown can catch a few of those forecast showers and he can race on a nice kind surface on Saturday.

“He’s a horse with a big future and he is a big, burly horse, so who knows he might be a bit rusty on Saturday, but hopefully not and he’s been training nicely and he’s a lovely horse for the future.”

A considered approach is also hoped to pay dividends with Raammee who set plenty of tongues wagging with the style he won his opening outing at Kempton.

Carrying the same colours of Sheikh Ahmed Al Maktoum as Saddadd, it took Varian until the August of his three-year-old season to unleash the son of Persian King, but he delivered in spades with a fast-finishing display that hints at a bright future.

He is set to be kept to calm waters for the time being, with Varian saying: “He’s a lovely horse and I think we’ll turn up in a novice somewhere in September then take it from there.

“We’ll take it slowly and he’s required a degree of patience as you can imagine and we were rewarded with a promising debut effort. We’re now looking forward to seeing how he can build off that.”

Ground crucial for Defiance’s John Smith’s Cup bid

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Leading John Smith’s Cup fancy Defiance will only run at York on Saturday if there is sufficient cut in the ground.

The Roger Varian-trained four-year-old missed the second half of last season after successive runs on fast ground at Lingfield and York and he will not be asked to race on quick surfaces in the future.

“He’s a lovely horse who had his problems last year, he got very jarred up in the Lingfield Derby Trial and we couldn’t really get him back,” said Harry Herbert of Highclere Thoroughbred Racing, who own the gelding.

“We had to give him a lot of time and he’s come back this year in really good shape, had a run at Epsom where he could have been a bit closer but he was just caught too far back.

“I think he’s come on again for that run according to Roger, but we will take a look at the ground. If it’s rattling quick we won’t run and will wait until Goodwood. It looks like it is going to be hot up there but we’ll see where we are the day before.

“It will be Roger’s call but the horse is in great form, he looks fantastic and he’s well thought of. We’ve not seen anything like the best of this horse yet, so it will be disappointing if he can’t run as this has been his target for such a long time.”

Karl Burke’s course-and-distance winner Thunder Run has been left at the head of the weights following a host of withdrawals at the five-day stage, which included ante-post favourite Burrito.

William Haggas’ Archivist sits alongside Defiance in the new market with Arabian Force, See That Storm, Hand Of God and Naqeeb others in the mix

Ascot Eyecatcher Rahiebb will make his mark

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Roger Varian’s Queen’s Vase third Rahiebb could be worth following with big days later in the season in mind.

The Carlburg Stables handler won this race with Eldar Eldarov in 2022 and looked to have another real contender in Rahiebb, who emerged from the pack full of running with two furlongs to run.

Inexperience perhaps cost the lightly-raced son of Frankel late on, but he is yet to finish outside the top three in five starts, with his trainer saying he will be handed a St Leger entry later in the season.

My Cloud overshadows the rest in Royal Hunt Cup

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My Cloud scooted up the stands side rail to justify favouritism in the Royal Hunt Cup.

Roger Varian’s charge was sent off the 3-1 market leader for one of the betting highlights of the week and was ridden with plenty of confidence by Silvestre de Sousa.

The 30-strong field split into three groups and while My Cloud was clearly in front on his side of the track, Bullet Point was running him close on the other side, with the favourite edging in front of the 11-1 second by three-quarters of a length, with Bopedro taking third at 50-1.

My Cloud had won over the course and distance on his penultimate start and Varian said: “The horse likes it here and we all do, we all enjoy winners at this meeting.

“Patience has been key and he had a few niggles as a young horse. We couldn’t get as busy as we would have liked on the racecourse aged two and three and he only really got going late last year.

“He’s done well this year which is a great team effort at home. There’s a lot of people to thank but mainly his owner who has been the most patient of everyone.

“I was at pains to tell Silvestre not to be in a rush with him, as races on the straight mile can develop late, and this is a horse with a lot of class who moved through the race well.

“We will have to hope he keeps improving and progressing and that was a mighty performance for an inexperienced horse. We hope he could progress out of handicaps one day, but there won’t be a rush to do so.

“He’s had three races now so I think we will regroup, enjoy today and then work out a plan.”

The Windsor Castle Stakes brought day two of the meeting to a close and for the second time the Listed prize went to Eve Johnson Houghton, this time with Havana Hurricane (7-1).

The Oxfordshire-based trainer saddled Chipotle to strike gold 2021 and her latest contender was prominent in the market after supplementing a successful debut at Goodwood with a runner-up finish behind Maximized in the Woodcote at Epsom less than a fortnight ago.

Ridden by Charles Bishop, the Havana Gold colt quickened up smartly to grab the lead inside the final furlong and was well on top at the line, with Dickensian best of the rest in second.

Johnson Houghton’s thoughts immediately turned to her late father, Fulke, who died in February this year at the age of 84.

She said: “I’m missing my dad, he’d have been proud. He’d be the first person I’d ring.

“Didn’t he (Bishop) give him a beautiful ride? He got slated for his ride at Epsom, unfairly, and he gave him an absolute corker; couldn’t be more proud of my jockey.”

Monday Musings: Of Bubbles Burst

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When they get beat, the Coolmore Classic hotpots, especially in the 2000 Guineas, they make a proper job of it, writes Tony Stafford. Auguste Rodin’s capitulation a year ago, preceding as it did two Derby victories, had a variety of explanations to soften the apparent finality of it. City Of Troy’s tame drift away from the action from a long way out, may be less easy to explain.

I wasn’t the only one with egg on my face, having championed his two runs on the same piece of Suffolk real estate, albeit a few furlongs apart, last year. The Superlative Stakes win from Haatem was, well, superlative. His Dewhurst romp was a tour de force, leading all the way then sprinting up the last furlong with Haatem again well behind.

So how could Haatem turn that around so emphatically, third behind only previously unbeaten Godolphin horse Notable Speech and his own stable-companion, second favourite Rosallion? Just over three lengths behind Charlie Appleby’s second and William Buick’s first 2000 winner, he was now 13 lengths in front of the odds-on favourite, who trailed in ninth of eleven.

Aidan O’Brien professed himself shocked and so would most of the massive crowd, one which gridlocked the always slow-motion Newmarket High Street for hours before the 1.10 p.m. meeting start. Talk might have been of records but there were a few there when Nijinsky started his Triple Crown journey more than 50 years ago, too, and not quite as many cars either!

The filming media behaved as if they were there to attend a Royal family meltdown or a PM taking his leave in front of Number Ten. Apparently unflappable as he was being saddled, there was a paparazzi feel as the lenses pointed his way right in his eyeline as the final touches were being completed. Agitated Newmarket staff shooed away many of the regular Coolmore supporters across to the other side of the horse path, but the cameras were allowed to stand their ground.

Considering this was a race with several previously unbeaten opponents, including the winner – three for three at Kempton, so making his turf debut – his price was either dangerously short (as it proved) or even a little generous, given the expectations.

If anyone can bring a horse back from such an unexpected reverse, Aidan O’Brien is the man and he has before, but talk of another Frankel now looks fanciful.

It’s four weeks to the Derby and we were all talking in the paddock beforehand that his pedigree is more that of a Derby horse than a Guineas type. We’ll have to see. He’s 8/1 now. Last year after a similar reverse, Auguste Rodin was only 3/1 and we know what happened at Epsom with him!

The Coolmore boys stayed up late on Saturday night to watch the Kentucky Derby in which they had two interests, a 100% involvement in second-favourite Sierra Leone and 75% of the Todd Pletcher-trained Fierceness. Todd’s runner faded away after a prominent start but the Chad Brown trainee Sierra Leone must be rated a very unlucky loser.

Held up on the rail around a dozen lengths behind the pace set by Track Phantom until making a move at the end of the back straight, jockey Tyler Gaffalione found himself in a tight position around the turn and was forced to go very wide.

Meanwhile Mystik Dan under Brian Hernandez made a run for home on the rail while Sierra Leone began his wide, late and rather erratic surge in company with the Japanese-trained Forever Young on his inside.

By the time they reached the post, the camera showed there were pixels between the trio and a verdict of nose, nose in favour of Mystik Dan, trained in Lexington by Kenny McPeek, gained the verdict. That nose makes a massive difference: initially £1.7 million between the two top prizes but also his potential as a stallion when he departs racing, presumably to Coolmore’s US branch, Ashford Stud in Lexington. Ashford is home of the only two Triple Crown winners of the last half century, American Pharoah and City of Troy’s sire Justify. They expected two more – one here and one over there.

It truly was the Maktoum family’s weekend, for after the success of Sheikh Mohammed’s Notable Speech on Saturday, Ahmed Al Maktoum, his younger brother won the 1000 Guineas with 28/1 outsider Elmalka, trained by Roger Varian and ridden by Silvestre De Sousa.

In a wide open market, in contrast to the one-eyed appearance of Saturday’s Classic, the fillies’ equivalent offered the prospect of a quintet of potential winners as they came to the last furlong. Until just before the line, two young overseas trainers were entitled to believe their fillies would win.

Ramatuelle (Christopher Head, France) looked sure to hold on but she was challenged late, initially by Porta Fortuna, Donnacha O’Brien/Tom Marquand, but only too briefly as Elmalka finished fastest of all having trailed the field early in the 16-runner contest.

Two others merit a mention. Fourth under a typical, but in this case just too late, Jamie Spencer ride was the David Menuisier filly Tamfana, while Ylang Ylang kept on well for fifth under Ryan Moore, the Aidan O’Brien inmate not getting the clearest of runs. She’ll be set for running over further, maybe in the Musidora next time at York – just guessing on that one.

Elmalka, a daughter of Kingman, was third previously in the Fred Darling Stakes (or whatever appellation it now goes by) at Newbury, where she had rallied to finish close up behind Folgario and Regal Jubilee. The Fred Darling runner-up also started at 28/1 yesterday but finished well down the field for the Gosdens. No doubt Marco Botti, trainer of Folgario, must have wondered why she wasn’t in the line-up.

Unbeaten in five starts as a juvenile initially in Italy (four wins) and then one in France, trained by Marco’s relative Stefano, she has the Coronation Stakes as her sole entry at this stage. Six races unbeaten will make her an interesting wildcard into that always-significant Royal Ascot midsummer Group 1.

I must thank the Editor for drawing my attention to, and therefore helping me follow, this tortuous link. Back in 2007 the most impressive winner of the Coronation Stakes, and a filly that never raced again, was Indian Ink. Trained by Richard Hannon senior, ridden by Richard Hughes, and in the colours of Raymond Tooth – she won by six lengths slaughtering such as Finsceal Beo, and the rest.

Yesterday, in the colours of Clipper Logistics in the 40k newcomers’ race for 2yo fillies, her daughter River Seine (by Soldier’s Call) ran a highly promising second for Karl Burke to Godolphin’s Mountain Breeze, Buick’s pick of three for Charlie even if she sported the nominally third-choice red cap. River Seine could well make a visit to the scene of her mother’s finest hour, but she will have to find a fair bit to turn yesterday’s form around. Karl Burke will give it a go, no doubt.

Of all the performances over the two days at Newmarket, I have to point to Hughie Morrison’s Ben and Sir Martyn Arbib homebred Stay Alert, who ran away with the 1m1f Dahlia Stakes, tracking the Gosdens’ 6/4 favourite Running Lion into the dip and then drawing away with the rest trailing behind.

Hughie Morrison kept her to high-class opposition last year when her best performance had been a two-length second to Via Sistina in the Pretty Polly Stakes at the Curragh. Most observers thought she was an unlucky loser that day and the subsequent exploits of the winner which precipitated a sale for 2.7 million guineas at last year’s December sale made her the one to beat yesterday.

Via Sistina was bought by Australian interests and has already won and been second, the latter in the Queen Elizabeth Cup at Randwick in Sydney last month. Her debut win at £310k was worth more than either Guineas race and her second place of £454,000 in the QE Cup was only 130 grand short of the combined total of our first two Classics.

If she had won, the prize would have been £1,577,000. No wonder my good friend and one of the most experienced observers of the racing scene here and overseas for many years says, “We’re a laughing stock! Just get rid of off-course bookmakers – they won’t let anyone have a proper bet anyway – and our racing, which is the best in the world, will take off.” 

* Just a note. While talking of bookmakers who won’t take a proper bet, I’ve just received a copy of well-known former Rails bookmaker Stephen Little’s entertaining autobiography. He was someone who did take a bet as “From Bicycle to Bentley” reveals.

The foreword is by his long-time friend Sir Mark Prescott and it’s published by Pen and Sword Books in Barnsley S70 2AS. My pal Sir Rupert Mackeson has been instrumental in getting Pen and Sword to fill what had become an alarming gap in the production of books with a horse racing theme. Well done, Rupert. As much of it overlaps my time in racing, for me it’s a great reminder of those wonderful days.

  - TS

Monday Musings: A Dusky Beauty

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Some weeks, I worry right until the moment when I finally open the keyboard, wondering what to put into these rambling epistles, writes Tony Stafford. Often, it’s a lottery, with random episodes of equal, often minimal, importance to weigh. Other times, like this weekend, I’m spoilt for choice.

Monday Musings is not an organ of record, unlike my long-term employer, the Daily Telegraph, its great rival the Times, or another of my early parking places, the Press Association. Even before then, on a local paper it was instilled in me to chisel out the “who, what, when, where, why, how and to whom” coda for story compiling half a dozen years before the start of my DT days half a century ago.

Among the formula’s most exacting adherents of PA vintage was David Thomas, son of the Sporting Life’s celebrated Chief Racing Reporter, Len, who had been for decades and still was a doyen of the 'paper. If his issue was a doyen of anything, it was repetition, as upon confronting a winning trainer after a race, he would ask, bright bowtie to the fore, “how many do you have in this year?”, “where does the owner come from?” and, more acceptably, “where will he go next?”

In fairness, the domicile of the owner was important, too, as local papers needed those lines from the exciting world of horse racing and sport to flesh out their parochial coverage of robberies, brawls outside public houses and the misdemeanours of local politicians. How I loved Police Calls at Leyton nick in metropolitan Essex in my first newspaper job on the Walthamstow Guardian! Up to a point! I presented “Tommy” with a 1972 copy of Horses In Training one day and dared him to ask another trainer his worn-out trilogy. He defied me, but not until the next day!

There are more than enough “proper” stories elsewhere in this comprehensive, authoritative electronic publication to keep everyone on point, and to allow me an old man’s self-indulgence. In reverse order, in best Miss World mode – if we’re still locked in the 1970’s – the heroes are Hughie Morrison, Charlie Appleby and Roger Varian.

Hughie has been around the longest of the three and equally I’ve known him the longest too. A shade chippier than the others, he finds plenty not to admire about the administration of the sport, and trains at his own pace. He takes any injury the horses sustain as if it were to himself and opportunities for his horses are minutely sought out. On Saturday, his scouring of the Pattern programmes led to two of his progressive fillies collecting Group 3 races, at home at Newbury and in France at Chantilly. The latter foray Hughie declared necessary as he reckoned there was such limited domestic opportunity for the cross-Channel traveller. “Just one other suitable race before Christmas,” he said.

She was Mrs Fitzherbert, a Kingman filly owned by Sonya and Anthony Rogers. Her emphatic success at Chantilly earned €40k for the win and a decent multiple of that in inherent paddock value for her legendary owner-breeders.

The Arbibs, father and son, were the happy beneficiaries of the earlier winner, Stay Alert, as her jockey David Egan needed to, for she was apparently securely trapped on the rail inside the last furlong. But after belatedly worming a small gap, his mount got him out of trouble with instant acceleration to be ahead and back hard held before the line.

Before this challenge against the boys, which brought not just a similar prize but also the promise of much more to come, Stay Alert had been in line for the big fillies’ race on Champions Day next month, and the way she accelerated will make her a threat to even the top fillies at Ascot. “Had she not,” Hughie reminded me beforehand, “given Nashwa a real battle at Newbury earlier in the summer?”

Egan, with confidence emanating from last weekend’s St Leger win on Eldar Eldarov, rather than shrink after the sacking following Mishriff’s too-late finish into second behind Vadeni in the Eclipse, was riding the second of four consecutive winners on the day, more of which later.

I wouldn’t say replacing him has been a conspicuous success – the Eclipse was by far Mishriff’s best run of an unproductive year! The many millions he won for owner and trainer back in Saudi Arabia early last year obviously counted for nought in the face of that one slight misjudgement on a track where any jockey – the best down -  can get into trouble even in a three-horse race.

Egan had his day in the sun while William Buick was off travelling to North America for Charlie Appleby and Godolphin. The champion-elect had two mounts at Woodbine in Canada, while as Buick can only sit on one horse and be in one place at a time, former Godolphin habitué, a certain L Dettori, had the gig at Belmont at the Big A – presumably Aqueduct was needed to fulfil some of its near-neighbour’s dates. [It was/is, as Belmont is under reconstruction - Ed.]

The three horses, Nations Pride at the Big A, and the juvenile Mysterious Night and French 2,000 Guineas winner Modern Games in Toronto, all bolted up. They showed, as if we didn’t know already, that North American turf horses are a pretty crummy bunch, relatively speaking at least. Each of the trio won by at least five lengths – cumulatively just over 17 – and picked up a combined $1,450,000 - £920,000 according to the Racing Post. However, with the pound at a long-time low against the dollar, it currently converts at a shade more than £1,250,000, and so made it a very worthwhile trip indeed for all concerned.

Buick will not have been even a trice concerned at Egan’s clean-up job, which also encompassed an impressive Mill Reef Stakes victory for Sakheer, who looked one of the fastest juveniles so far seen out. By common consent that put a classy gloss on an astounding day for his trainer Roger Varian.

With a second St Leger in the bag, Varian has been flying up the trainer charts in recent weeks, but even he would not have anticipated a seven-timer on a single day. The wins came nicely spread around the nation with three each at Newbury and at Ayr’s Western meeting and one at Newmarket. Had Cobalt Blue not been caught on the run-in at Wolverhampton it would have been an eight-timer!

I know I’m putting it at the bottom, but my race of the day, and one of amiable Roger’s septet, was Dusky Lord. This was his eighth run of the season and second win. I’d travelled a total of 1,800 miles to see each of the previous seven, in representing Jonathan Barnett, the football agent, one of those in the Partnership in whose colours he runs.

Six days earlier he had raced from the worst stall of all in the Portland at Doncaster, frustratingly as it was a target I’d suggested for him all year, and he was never able to overcome the disadvantage. David Egan, who won on him at Newmarket in the spring and finished a close second on the four-year-old at Glorious Goodwood, was adamant. “He ran well.”

Armed with that intelligence, Varian declared him for Ayr, happy he had not had too hard a race thanks to Egan’s sensible ride. While he missed by only a few horses and a couple of pounds to make the Big Show, he slid in almost at the top of the Silver Cup, albeit with a massive weight – 9st 11lb.

So, in front of the TV, I was happy to see Jack Mitchell, who had won on Dusky Lord at Newcastle last year, get him away well in the middle group. From then on it was 70 seconds of regret that I’d not taken another road trip – this time 975 miles, there and back.

From here let me leave you in the hands of Timeform. They reported: "Dusky Lord turned out again quickly, having been drawn out of things in the Portland, proved a revelation back in headgear <cheek-pieces>, showing much improved form, rare to see a handicap of this nature won with such complete authority; midfield, tanked along, quickened to lead over 2f out, drew clear, impressive; it’s hard to see even a big rise in the weights being enough to stop him being of interest again."

The Silver Cup has been an adjunct of the Gold Cup for at least a decade. I checked the last eight and each time the Gold Cup, as one would expect, has been run in the quicker time, always between 0.2 sec and 0.8 sec faster. Saturday’s big race went to now 15-time winner Summerghand, trained by David O’Meara. His time was 0.93 sec slower than Dusky Lord’s.

The Racing Post, to my mind, often does a fair bit of massaging of their speed figures. Summerghand’s figure was 72, compared with Dusky Lord’s 95, which represents a second and a half or seven and a half lengths' difference. Yet to arrive at such a low mark on what is clearly Summerghand’s best run of the year, they felt obliged to give him his smallest time performance of the season after 79, 75, 88, 76 and 85.

They clearly felt they had to minimise the figure for Dusky Lord as it would have been in the stratosphere. After the way he won, without being slightly challenged by his 24 rivals, the margin of the win and the fast time, Timeform have raised his mark from the high 90’s to 109. Phil Bull, Timeform’s founder whose whole ethos was based on the accurate interpretation of times, will be turning in his grave!

I think the partners have a Group horse of the future. What a day for Roger Varian, David Egan, Charlie Appleby, William Buick and Hughie Morrison! Not too shabby for Dusky Lord and his owners either!

- TS

Monday Musings: Doncaster Pays its Respects

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They stood in the owners’ lunchroom at Doncaster yesterday on Mike Cattermole’s cue and perfectly observed the requested two minutes’ silence, writes Tony Stafford. Then, on the big screen behind the excellent cold and hot buffet, was the unforgettable image of Her Late Majesty’s greatest moment as a racehorse owner – never mind winning the Gold Cup with Estimate – the grainy St Leger victory of her home-bred filly Dunfermline in 1977, her Silver Jubilee.

Alone now of the principals of that moment, the indefatigable Willie Carson is still very much with us. With that distinctive head looking down style, along with the rhythmic punching action, he kept Dunfermline in touch with the super horse that was the previously unbeaten and never again vanquished dual Arc winner, Alleged, and Lester Piggott.

Unbelievably, the filly can be seen closing the gap that Lester began to extend once taking the lead at the four-furlong pole. In the last furlong, the filly joined her rival and inexorably gained the advantage. You can see Lester pointedly easing Alleged in the last few strides – no sign of a rat-tat-tat response once he knew the Vincent O’Brien colt was beaten.

Seven years earlier, the same peerless pair, O’Brien and Piggott, had arrived at Doncaster with a similarly unbeaten American-bred colt in the shape of Nijinsky. In his case he did indeed win the St Leger but his exertions in becoming the first (and last) Triple Crown winner since Bahram in 1935 prefaced defeats in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe and Champion Stakes.

Alleged, a late developer whose fragile forelegs had persuaded connections to race him in Europe despite his dirt pedigree, did not contest either of the earlier UK Classics. Piggott’s restraint on Town Moor left him fresh enough to win his first Arc three weeks later when Dunfermline did well to finish fourth. He followed up impressively in Europe’s Championship race twelve months later before retiring to stud in Kentucky.

In another uncanny moment, as the Dunfermline race was being shown, and the Royal hearse was making its six-hour roadside-packed way from Balmoral to Edinburgh, trainer Ben Hanbury happened to sit down at the next table to myself. We showed our respective respects without talking and I’m not sure quite how I recognised the former Newmarket trainer, soberly dressed, without the colourful trousers he always wore at Keeneland where Midway Lady was bought.

She won five of her six races and was unbeaten at three in 1986 when she won both the 1,000 Guineas and Oaks. Injury prevented any further active involvement but she bred an Oaks winner in Eswarah, trained by Michael Jarvis, in 2005. You guessed it, Midway Lady was a daughter – the best daughter – of Alleged.

Earlier, on my way to the track, I listened to a Radio 5 Live broadcast where I’m sure I heard that Dunfermline, situated between Perth and Edinburgh, was to be one of the towns where the car could be seen.

I bumped into fellow Arsenal fan and Derby-winning jockey Willie Ryan (Benny The Dip, 1997) in the seats outside the Press Room as they milled around before the start of the big race. He had driven Frankie Dettori to the races, laughing as he related the former champion had cried off riding Emily Dickinson for the Coolmore team to partner another filly, Ralph Beckett’s Haskoy, for whom a £50,000 supplementary entry fee was paid.

“I’ve backed Emily”, said Willie. “Frankie keeps switching off winners”, he laughed. Ryan agreed that to consider the St Leger in any ground as a mile and three-quarters race was mistaken. “It’s a long 14 furlongs anyway, but here with that five-furlong run-in it’s really a two-mile grind”, he said.

Ryan works for Charlie Appleby in his day job – “From the floor, not on top anymore”, but went on to say that the trip on that track would be the worry for New London, the favourite for the race. His stamina appeared to run out in much the way of Alleged all those 45 years ago as he finished third behind the Roger Varian-trained Eldar Eldarov.

Frankie got one thing right, Haskoy going past the post three places ahead of Emily Dickinson in second, but what he didn’t do correctly was to satisfy the stewards that there was nothing wrong with his riding. They found he had caused interference to fourth home Giavellotto, trained by Marco Botti and ridden by Neil Callan.

They demoted Haskoy to fourth, promoting Giavellotto to third and also giving New London a knock-on promotion to second. It’s quite a big deal in prizemoney terms, second and third both doubling up their original earnings while Haskoy, far from gaining a profit on the deal after the £50k supplementary fee, is now in deficit. No wonder Beckett, “under the interference rules”, is planning an appeal.

If the last few days have been a changing of the guard in terms of the Monarch, it was very much a similar situation in the race itself. The previous five winners had all either been sons or grandsons of Galileo. Yesterday he didn’t have a representative and the only second generation runners were sixth-placed 150-1 shot El Habeeb, by Al Rifai, and last home Lizzie Jean (100-1), by Nathaniel. He died last summer, so a maximum of two more crops of three-year-olds can represent him as Classic contenders.

The winner, third-placed over the line New London and fifth home Emily Dickinson were all by Dubawi, Galileo’s sparring partner for the past decade. Now, with a freer field for a few years at least, he can enjoy a King Charles III-like interregnum at the top of the stallion charts until the next King of the Sires comes along.

For Varian it was a second St Leger triumph, following Kingston Hill eight years ago, but a first for David Egan, the highly personable and talented son of weighing room legend and shrewd bloodstock dealer, John.

I had the good fortune to be representing Jonathan Barnett, one of the owners in Varian’s sprinter Dusky Lord, along with part-owner Jennie Allen at her home course. We stood in the paddock together with trainer and rider before the race. Dusky Lord had a near impossible draw but ran well. I was delighted for both trainer and rider, for whom Eldar Eldarov looks a stayer to follow.

Over in Ireland Kyprios kept up the pressure in the staying ranks, the four-year-old seeing off fellow older gentleman Hamish in the Irish St Leger. By then his Goodwood Cup victim Trueshan had failed to deliver odds of 9-2 laid on in the Doncaster Cup, his erratic steering in the last 100 yards viewed low down from right on the winning line as Hollie tried to straighten him for a final flourish. Coltrane, expertly ridden by one of this site’s ambassadors, David Probert, was a deserved beneficiary of what Alan King clearly believes is the memory of Trueshan’s hard race at Goodwood behind Kyprios and Stradivarius on faster than ideal ground.

It was gloom all round for the Trueshan team of owners. Their best-known member, Andrew Gemmell, had taken the 10.30 train from King’s Cross, travel time 90 minutes and arrived via a taxi five minutes before Trueshan’s race – scheduled off time 2.45.

All through what remained of the afternoon, Tony Hunt, Andrew’s “eyes” for the day monitored the denuded Sunday service which promised delays and cancellations, so I thought it appropriate on such a day to offer a lift to Central London.

We had a lovely three hours listening to the Test match, reminiscing about the Queen – yes, I did meet her and shared a few words when she visited the Daily Telegraph and talked about reading the racing page every day! – and learning the latest about Andrew’s great staying hurdler, Paisley Park. What a day!

- TS

Monday Musings: Paging Richard’s Granny!

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One early morning a few years ago in the days when I still bought a Racing Post rather than access the online version, my regular source did not have a copy, writes Tony Stafford. Not to be outdone I jumped in the car and made a stop at Tesco’s big store at Bromley-By-Bow in between Hackney Wick and Bow.

With only one till open I took my copy and, from memory, a BLT sandwich and went to pay. The senior lady with her full Cockney accent, looked and said: “Oh, you like racing? My grandson’s in racing. He’s a jockey. He’s Richard Kingscote!”

Now more normally you might expect to find grandparents of jockeys to have farms in Limerick or Wiltshire or to have ridden themselves. I doubt Grandma Kingscote – it could just as easily have been Piggott, Eddery or Buick but I think that unlikely - woke to the sounds of horses’ nostrils snorting in her early days which I guessed might have been, like mine, in the East End of London with bomb craters from World War II lingering still around every corner.

I mentioned that meeting to Richard soon after and wish I’d have gone into his heritage a little more. I bet granny wouldn’t have expected her grandson to have made the remarkable change in his source and scene of employment, so secure did the Michael Owen/Andrew Black/Tom Dascombe and Kingscote combination appear then and for a few years after.

Kingscote jumped first, moving south to pick up good rides from Newmarket stables, notably for Sir Michael Stoute, increasingly denied use of his long-term stable jockey Ryan Moore by his lucrative, Classic-bountiful Coolmore job.

Then Dascombe clearly got the tin-tack and he now operates with a team of 13 in Lambourn. Whether he can reinvigorate his career will be a serious challenge, though his interview on Luck On Sunday yesterday related that he’s up for it. All a jockey needs when forced to make a move is a saddle, a pair of boots, an agent and a car to take him to as many stables as he can to ride out and make an impression. Would-be trainers must (for starters) convince the BHA that they have the financial resources to set up and carry their (hopefully) growing business.

It helps if your dad was/is a trainer and he can help you along in the manner of a Crisford, Gosden, Johnston or even a Ferguson. So much more power then to the elbows of such as Boughey and Clover. George went close again yesterday when 1,000 Guineas heroine, Cachet, made a brave attempt to follow up in the French 1,000 at Longchamp, finishing second to the Mikel Delzangles-trained Mangoustine, ridden by the remarkable Gerald Mosse.

Half an hour later the Godolphin blue (Charlie Appleby brand) followed their Newmarket 2,000 one-two with Coroebus and Native Trail by sending out Modern Games under William Buick to win the counterpart French colts’ Classic.

Unraced since winning the hotly-contested Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf at Del Mar last November, the son of Dubawi came home strongly and adds his name to the already formidable team for the Boys in Blue in the major mile races.

They will still have to go some to match the year-older Baaeed in that division after the William Haggas four-year-old brought his tally to seven from seven when winning the Lockinge at Newbury. He started that career less than a year ago on the same course and looks set to be put right to the top of the official rankings after this display.

To be more accurate, Baaeed didn’t just win, he made mincemeat of a strong field of milers and the disdainful three-and-a-bit lengths by which he beat the Saeed Bin Suroor-trained runner-up Real World (a Coolmore-type sighter?) suggests even Classic form later in the season from the best of the younger generation will not be enough to stop him.

The big two power-houses are as strong as ever, but Baaeed’s trainer, William Haggas, is making ever more forceful strides in their pursuit and Baaeed was one of 13 winners for his Newmarket stable in the past fortnight. If you don’t enjoy backing short-priced favourites, never mind, just make sure you take your place early on day one at Royal Ascot when this potential world champion will be the stand-out in the Queen Anne Stakes.

But Richard Kingscote has matters more immediate on his mind after last week’s Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Dante Stakes at York. Riding Sir Michael Stoute’s Desert Crown on only his second racecourse appearance, he brought the Nathaniel colt home well clear of a strong field to clinch what is often the best of the Derby trials.

Ryan Moore was third in the race on the Galileo colt Bluegrass and that colt is sure to do better in time.  They were split by the Johnstons’ Royal Patronage who had run a reasonable race in the 2,000 Guineas, not far behind the principals having attempted to force the pace.

When Nathaniel made his racecourse debut at the Newmarket July meeting in the evening maiden race also chosen by Sir Henry Cecil for Frankel, both colts being by Galileo, there was only a half length between them at the line.

Frankel never lost a race; Nathaniel did, but also won plenty, including the King George and Eclipse at Group 1 level. He has been a great servant to Newsells Park stud where his fee for 2022 was only £15,000 but one eternal distinction is that his daughter Enable was probably the best filly to race in Europe in this century.

Now he could be getting his first Derby winner with a Tattersalls Book 2 purchase, admittedly bought for the respectable figure of 280,000gns. How this year’s Book 2 catalogue will celebrate him, Derby success or not!

Desert Crown has been brought along with typical patience by Sir Michael, who has five Epsom Derby winners to his credit, the last three since he was honoured by his home country Barbados for services unconnected to his profession. Ryan Moore rode the last of them, Workforce, in 2010 and was also on the Aidan O’Brien winner Ruler Of The World three years later.

The Derby can often throw up unexpected winning jockeys and you only have to go back to last year when Adam Kirby was the popular beneficiary of William Buick’s decision to ride third-placed Hurricane Lane, leaving Kirby to fill in on easy winner, Adayar.

O’Brien and Charlie Appleby between them have won the last five editions of the Blue Riband and only once has the stable first string been on the right one. That was Buick on Masar in 2018. Ryan has had to watch on from behind as first Padraig Beggy (on Wings Of Eagles), Seamie Heffernan on Anthony Van Dyck and, most recently, Emmet McNamara (Serpentine) won the spoils.

To think that Beggy and McNamara together have ridden as many Epsom Derby winners as the flawless Ryan Moore. As I mentioned last week, Ryan’s riding has been exemplary this season and I think we can expect a ride of supreme skill on Stone Age on June 4.

I have no idea whether Richard Kingscote’s grandma remains in good health. I hope she does and, even more fervently, that she has been gathered up by all the excitement that Richard will almost certainly be on the favourite that day; even more so that she can be there, because I’d love to meet her again!

One horse I would hope turns up on that day is Saturday’s stylish Newmarket sprint winner, Dusky Lord, who came through the eye of the proverbial needle to win the finale after a six-month absence.

I was happy to be representing part-owner Jonathan Barnett and, given the way in which he came through to make it three wins from six, I think this previous Brighton winner could win the Dash, a race I believe Raymond Tooth should have won with Catfish ten years ago.

The fact this remains the fastest-ever electronically-timed five-furlong race is a major achievement for John Best, who saddled the 50/1 winner Stone Of Folca to record a time of 53.69 seconds, which has never been beaten. That works out as an average speed for the entire trip of 41.9 miles per hour.

Catfish stayed on strongly after a tardy start to finish third in the big field, beaten for second by Andrew Balding’s Desert Law. But when Mikael Barzalona returned, he said: “She was unlucky. My saddle slipped at the start and the way she finished if I could have ridden her properly, I’m certain she would have won.”

David Egan reckoned after Saturday that Dusky Lord definitely needed the outing after his six-month absence. Now the Dash is back as a 100 grand race with half of that going to the winning owners. That’s worth going for, don’t you agree Roger?

- TS

Racing Systems: Flat Trainers, Part 1

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Last week, I switched focus to flat racing (turf and all weather combined) and, as we’re now officially into the flat season, I am sticking again to the flat with attention switching to trainer based systems, writes Dave Renham.

As with the first five articles in this series I am going to look over the long term, studying UK data from Jan 1st 2009 to Dec 31st 2021 with all profits quoted to Betfair Starting Price.

As we know, systems are not for everyone, and I am not a system user per se. However, I do have a group of systems that highlight horses I will then go on to study in more detail: systems do not have to be totally rigid unless you want them to be.

As I have stated before when sharing these racing systems I am not advocating that you use some of them, or all of them; rather, the plan is to give you the facts and figures in order to make an informed choice. So let’s get cracking:

 

Keith Dalgleish – Second Career start system

Keith Dalgleish started training in 2011 in South Lanarkshire. His career strike rate stands at 12% which is very respectable and last year (2021) was his best year numerically with 93 winners in total. It was also his most profitable; backing all Dalgleish runners on the flat in 2021 would have yielded a return of over 26p in the £.

Looking at his record, he has done very well with horses having their second ever career run. Hence this system reads very simply:

  1. Flat racing (Turf / All weather)
  2. Trainer – Keith Dalgleish
  3. Second career start

 

Let us have a look at the raw system results:

 

 

These are solid looking results – good profit from an excellent ROI. The strike rate of nearly 17% is sound considering the type of horse we are talking about: the average win strike rate for all second time starters (all trainers) is around 12%.

Let's graph the annual breakdowns and as we are looking at relatively small yearly samples I have used profit figures to £1 level stakes. As Dalgleish started training in 2011, the data set starts from there rather than 2009:

 

 

As can be seen, Dalgleish's results were not so good in the two of the first three years, but I think we can forgive this as it was the early days of his training career. From 2014 onwards his runners having their second career start have done very well. Overall they've recorded seven winning years and four losing ones; (six out of the last eight were profitable). 2017 looks poor but he had runner up finishes that year at BSP prices of 20.45, 14.50 and 12.74. Two of these were beaten very narrowly (a head and half a length) and if a couple had managed to win, the year would have been around the breakeven point. We have to appreciate that regardless of bottom line results, luck, good or bad, can play a significant part in whether we make a profit or a loss.

There is good news that these results have not been badly skewed by numerous big priced winners; just two winners over 30.0 on Betfair and none over 50.0. Indeed, if we focus on his runners whose BSP was under 30.0 results actually are even better:

 

 

That focus brings the strike rate up nicely to nearly a win from every four runners, and returns close to 73p in the £. The yearly breakdown also improves to eight winning years and three losing ones.

As with any system involving very unexposed horses, we are playing with fire a bit. However, Dalgleish has been profitable with both his 2yos and 3yos under this system (N.B. he has had just four qualifiers aged 4 or older, one of which won). The majority of his qualifiers have been 2yos, but the 66 3yo qualifiers produced half of the profits.

So is this a system to use? Quite possibly. Obviously we are reliant on the trainer having a 2yo crop each year of similar ability to what he has had in the past as they will make up about 75% of all system qualifiers, but consistency in that regard hasn't been too much of an issue to date.

Some additional points to note. Dalgleish's female runners have been particularly successful. Also, as highlighted in this Keith Dalgleish trainer profile, his best results have come at tracks in the north of England and in Scotland. He had 31 qualifiers that raced in the midlands or further south and just two have won.

 

Hugo Palmer – 2 & 3yos that made debut at Newmarket

In my last article I shared a system that backed horses that finished in the first three at Newmarket on their debut (first ever run). Newmarket debutants are a key part to this system too. Here are the rules:

  1. Flat racing (Turf / All weather)
  2. 2yo and 3yo runners from the Hugo Palmer stable
  3. Subsequent runs after debut at Newmarket
  4. SP 10/1 or less

 

This is a completely different system from anything I have shared before. This is because the same horse could become a qualifier several times in different races using this system. Essentially if the horse made their debut at Newmarket, you back it on any subsequent start as a 2yo or 3yo. That might be one or two runs, it could be ten, and it could be none.

I have also added a price cap which as we know is something we cannot always be 100% sure of when betting pre-race, especially if the early price of the horse is around the figure quoted (in this case an industry SP of 10/1). For the record a BSP price cap of 15.0 would give us virtually the same results and bottom line. The good thing about this price cap is that we know the overall figures are not skewed by any huge priced winners.

Onto the system results now:

 

 

Considering the system is backing all Newmarket debutants on all of their subsequent starts up to and including the age of three, these figures look very sound. For me personally, the strike rate of over 30% is the most impressive part. Good strike rates are not a pre-requisite for a good system, but in general the higher the hit rate the more likely it is to be consistent.

I dug a bit deeper by looking to see how many individual horses qualified under this system – 57 horses did and of those 43 managed at least one win. This means 75% of all runners that started won at least once after their Newmarket debut before reaching the age of 4. That is a very high percentage (average for all trainers is 59%), which I guess explains the system’s apparent success.

Onto the yearly breakdown now – I am using profit figures to £1 level stakes again due to the relative small number of qualifiers each year. The data shared, as with Dalgleish, only goes back to 2011, as that is when Palmer started training, too:

 

 

Despite the relatively small samples for each year, Palmer has secured profits in eight of the years, had two losing years and one that broke even. When you look at the annual strike rates, they too have been impressive:

 

 

We can ignore 2013 as he only had two qualifiers but every other year the strike rate has exceeded 20% while in nine of the 11 years the strike rate has been 25% or higher.

This is definitely an unusual system as normally the system rules creates one bet for one horse. As stated earlier, with this system the same horse can be bet several times. In general, horses that make their debut at Newmarket are of a good level of ability and in Hugo Palmer’s case they certainly seem to run well early in their careers.

The one fly in the ointment with this system is that Palmer has agreed to train for ex-footballer Michael Owen at his Manor House Stables in Cheshire. That, of course, is a lot further from Newmarket than his former Kremlin House yard on the Snailwell Road, actually in Newmarket!

 

Paul Midgley – Finished in first two LTO system

Paul Midgley is definitely not a household name but in previous research I have done he is a trainer who I think is underrated. This system is very simple as the title suggests:

  1. Flat racing (Turf / All weather)
  2. Trainer – Paul Midgley
  3. Finished 1st or 2nd LTO

The overall results going back to 2009 are as follows:

 

 

The results are very good considering the simplicity of the system, and the strike rate is about what you would expect for this type of runner. Returns of 16p in the £ are thoroughly acceptable, too. Let’s check the annual figures now to £1 level stakes at BSP:

 

 

A small loss in 2009 was followed by a bigger reverse in 2010 but, since then, eight years of profit (albeit two only just) and three losing years. Two very good years (2012 and 2018) produced the lion’s share of the overall profits and, as with many systems, results fluctuate somewhat from year to year. Nothing is ever going to be a smooth line with system angles and this is a good example of the peaks and troughs. The key is that the peaks should Himalayan while the troughs are only small gullies!

In its raw form this not a system I would consider for backing all runners, but I would take a note of any qualifier before undertaking some further race analysis.

It is also worth sharing the fact that much bigger priced runners have performed poorly. Those with an industry SP of 20/1 or bigger have produced just one winner from 67, creating losses of £30.83 (ROI -46.0%). On the plus side this means the raw system has not been skewed in the least by big priced winners; quite the opposite in fact.

With horses that have run well last time out I am personally a fan of that good run being relatively recent – within around three weeks is normally my personal cut off point on the flat. Hence I wanted to see what difference, if any, that type of additional rule would make to the Midgley results.

Here are the findings of Midgley horses that finished LTO 1st or 2nd racing again within 3 weeks:

 

 

The strike rate has edged up and although profits are down in absolute terms by about £6 there would have been 276 fewer qualifiers compared to original system. Consequently, returns have improved from 16p to 23p in the £. In terms of annual returns, these have smoothed out a bit, too, as the table below shows:

 

 

That's ten winning years (although three were essentially break-even) and three losing years. Restricting selections to those which ran within the last three weeks looks a plausible and logical addition to the system, assuming one is happy that this is not significant back-fitting: your call. This system has possibilities for sure.

 

Roger Varian – Six month system

Roger Varian was assistant trainer to Michael Jarvis for a decade before taking over the reins in 2011 (making him the third trainer in this article to have started in that year). He has been a very consistent trainer and seems able to get runners fit regardless of time off the track. Here is the Roger Varian system:

  1. Flat racing (Turf / All weather)
  2. Trainer - Roger Varian
  3. Six months (180 days) or more since last run
  4. SP 10/1 or less

Some trainers are adept at getting their runners fit after a long break and Roger Varian certainly falls into that category. I have included the same price cap as I used earlier for the Hugo Palmer system. This attempts to avoid the inevitable price cap ‘back-fit’ trap that many system punters fall into; sticking to the same price cap is the way to go.

Onto the results for this system (2011-2021):

 

 

The table shows that roughly three in every ten qualifiers have won which, considering the time off the track, is impressive. Here is the annual breakdown:

 

 

It's a fairly consistent set of results with eight winning years and three losing ones. Each losing year lost less than a tenner at £1 stakes, the worst being £8.13. Further signs of consistency can be found when we look at a breakdown of qualifiers by age:

 

 

Each age group can boast a profit, strike rates are consistently good to outstanding, and all A/E values  are at 1 or higher. This system looks one to follow and, at the time of writing, Varian has had seven qualifiers in 2022, two of which have won at BSP prices of 2.29 and 9.92, and a further three of which ran second, boosting the overall profits by a further few quid.

 *

And so we come to end of this latest piece, the first of three focusing on flat trainer system angles. Hopefully you have found a few useful snippets above, and next time I’ll be digging under the headline numbers of four more flat trainers.

- DR

Jon Shenton: Who to Layoff?

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Under normal circumstances April and May is my favourite time of the year, both in personal “real-life” terms but also through the racing lens, writes Jon Shenton. Usually, as the flat season kicks into gear it is a period when I’d be at my most active in punting terms. This year there is a void, and I’ve as yet not wanted want to fill it with third tier US racing, or whatever other meagre scraps are on offer.

Before we begin, an uber-caveat: the date of the restart of the sport will go a long way to establishing whether data-driven angles have a strong role to play in this years’ flat campaign.

Sadly, it may be smart to keep certain angles in cold storage until the spring of 2021: a truncated campaign will quite likely manifest in all sorts of data anomalies for otherwise robust angles. Let me explain with a specific example.

Many of my favourite angles are early season specific. Several yards are typically fast out of the blocks and others have a more nonchalant approach to the first exchanges in the campaign, in result terms anyway. Avoiding some yards during the initial knockings of the turf season can be a prudent move. A case in point is Tim Easterby: the powerhouse yard has a colossal number of runners throughout the spring and summer months with performance notable by its variance over the course of the season as the below graph illustrates.

It’s not the most exciting data, illustrating only the yard’s win percentage. However, it clearly shows a seasonal variance: Easterby’s performance in April and May is moderate in comparison to the peak summer period. To give a feel for the scale, there are 642 total runners in April alone, so in horse racing terms the sample sizes are broader than most (the yard is also 0-from-29 in March).

Focusing on 2020, what happens now? It is pure speculation but for the sake of this article let’s assume the season starts in July. Ordinarily, this would be peak Tim territory assuming a standard racing calendar. The million dollar question is, would the yard be expected to drop straight into the usual July prolific form or will it build slowly like usual, allowing its animals to develop race fitness through visits to the track, peaking as a yard in September or later? Perhaps we will see neither and the yard will flatten their own curve.

It is very difficult to project with any confidence, especially when placed in the context of every other yard rethinking and rehashing their own usual blueprint, planning for and around a truncated season.

Arguably, all typical trainer patterns could be of limited relevance. I certainly wouldn’t back a usual Easterby July qualifier this year, at least until I had more evidence to show the yard had adapted to the revised topology.

However, we don’t give in that easily at geegeez. Yes, it is true that a data-driven gambler may have to tread carefully; but there is also such a thing as first mover advantage! By cutting through the noise more quickly than most, there may be opportunities to gain utility from the numbers as they happen. Within that, possessing a good understanding of the ‘norm’ is beneficial as it provides a head start in terms of knowing what to look for as racing awakens from its enforced hiatus.

One sensible starting point is to evaluate how trainers perform after a horse has had a long rest from racing. This year, most animals are going to be hitting the track after a sizeable hiatus when the sport re-commences. Knowing the trainers who perform well in these circumstances ought to be of use.

The table below (containing data from horseracebase) shows exactly this: it summarises trainer performance with horses returning after a break of 181 days or longer (UK flat turf races only, 2011-present, SP 20/1 or shorter). The SP cut-off is a personal choice and generally helps sort the wheat from the chaff in my opinion.

The insight is sorted in A/E order (Actual vs. Expected, assessing performance vs. the expectation of the market, 1.00 being par, anything greater being outperformance against market expectation) and a minimum of 100 runs are required to qualify for the table. There are plenty of points to discuss but we will begin with my eye being drawn to the four yards marked in yellow.

These jump off the page, predominantly due to their impressive strike rates around one-in-four win to run ratio. They are also bona fide prime flat racing organisations where value can be hard to come by so merit closer scrutiny.

Given the profile of these yards, it is surprising that the market seems to ever-so-slightly underestimate their lay-off horses: time and again these guys fire in winners after an absence. The length of time off the track is far from detrimental to their chances; in fact, it may be a positive indicator of intent. However, we, as the general punting public still subconsciously prefer the reassurance of a recent run. In the case of the highlighted yards (and several of the others) it is a wise move trying to ignore the long elapsed time between runs.

Taking this concept further, the graph below illustrates the same trainers contained in the original data table above. The red line shows the A/E performance for the horses returning to the track after more than 180 days by trainer, whereas the blue bars shows the A/E for those who have a run during the last 180 days.

In basic terms, virtually all these trainers perform more profitably with lay-off animals than they do with more recent runners (using A/E as the measure). The only three that do not are Messrs Balding, Prescott and Ryan, but even then, the difference in results is virtually negligible.

The left-hand side of the graph indicates those where the variance between the lay-off horses and the race fit animals is most significant. Ballydoyle maestro Aidan O’Brien heads the list. There is some logic in this, at least theoretically. It is not beyond imagination to speculate that a horse travelling across the Irish Sea to the UK is ready for action and means business. Were it not it would be running closer to home, presumably.

However, to satisfy whether that is a fair assertion or not, a comparison with the yard’s Irish return-after-a-break horses should confirm if this is the case.

As can be seen, O’Brien’s travellers outperform their stay-at-home counterparts on every measure. Whilst it is probably not angle material it is certainly worth factoring into big race considerations, especially if the money is down (the record for horses 6/1 or bigger is just 2-from-45 within the UK dataset).

Another trainer highlighted in the table with a large differential between the performance of his lay-off and recent runners is Roger Varian. The Newmarket-based operation is one that, considering its scale and profile, I do not particularly follow or have many related opinions / angles.

However, in the context of his layoff runners there is an interesting edge to consider when runners are evaluated by age.

The table demonstrates that the winning performance level of Varian’s three-year-olds after a break is not as strong as his older horse returners. This could easily be a sample size issue, particularly as the place performance is very consistent. Regardless, the numbers of the four years and older brigade are highly noteworthy.

Taking those four-plus aged horses and evaluating their performance after an absence against the yard’s performance where a run has been more recent, the numbers grow in stature still further by comparison.

Effectively, the table above confirms that the absolute right time to back a Varian horse aged four or older is its first run after an absence.

I dare say that this is the tip of the iceberg and there are plenty of other interesting data-driven nuances in relation to all trainers in the table. A bit of homework for me – or you? – over the next week or two perhaps.

Again, 2020 may prove to be wholly different from recent history given these unique circumstances. Normally, much of the value in these yards horses after a break can be attributed to the likelihood that much of their competition would have had a recent outing: the beady eye of the market is often drawn to those who have provided recent evidence of their well-being rather than those who have been out of sight, out of mind.

This year, especially early in the season, most runners in each race will be racing on the back of a long break. It is conceivable that every yard and every owner will be desperate to get their charges out as early as possible to mitigate some of the economic damage received through the enforced absence.

Consequently, if the phasing of animals having their first run in a while is compressed into a short period of time as there isn’t the luxury of a long campaign, it could be easily argued that the market  will focus more towards the likes of O’Brien, Varian, Gosden and Haggas given their elevated status.

If the mooted Royal Ascot behind closed doors meeting does proceed, virtually every horse will be hitting the track after a long absence. Gosden, O’Brien et al runners could be like moths to a light for punters, even more so than usual, eroding potential value from the lay-off angle.

However, the bottom line is that these yards have proven performance after a lay-off in their locker. Plenty of others do not and those others will have to elevate their game and do something uncharacteristic to their norm to prevail.

Of course, it is conceivable that trainers who build a horse’s fitness through racing will adapt easily. Trainers are generally highly skilled practitioners and should be able to modify their approach to match the situation.

The yards listed in the table below are some of those for whom the first run is typically a sighter; whether things will be different in 2020, time will tell, but it seems prudent to be cautious until evidence to the contrary manifests itself.

It is certainly the case that the performance of runners from these yards after an absence is not meeting market expectation with unhealthy A/E numbers across the board. Again, the table is restricted to runners at 20/1 or shorter (SP), and 100 runners is required to qualify.

In broad terms, unless there is a compelling reason not to, it’s a straightforward decision to pass on entrants from these guys after a hiatus. Naturally, Easterby (Tim) is on here as intimated earlier. It is going to be fascinating to see whether these yards will still be content to play the long game once racing is back.

Personally, I’m not sure how to play things yet. The timing of the resumption will be key in shaping a strategy. With the deferral of four of the Classics it’s looking more and more likely that the resumption date will be mid-summer. Given that, my gut feel is that angle and data-driven wagering of this kind will be fraught with danger. However, where there is a market there will always be an opportunity to find an edge.

One thing is for sure: one of my starting points will be to man-mark the yards in this article when we get going again. By spotting the trainers who are ready to go, or otherwise, there should be plenty of chances to make up for lost time. Who knows, I may even be backing Tim Easterby horses after a prolonged absence. These are strange times, after all!

Stay safe.

- JS