Posts

Stat of the Day, 10th March 2020

Monday's pick was...

5.40 Wolverhampton : Nezar @ 7/1 BOG 9th at 11/1 (Took keen hold, prominent, lost place over 1f out) : got that one very wrong.

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

3.15 Sedgefield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Who?

Roxyfet @ 9/2 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 5, Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m½f on soft ground worth £2,989 to the winner... 

Why?...

Very number heavy today, so I'll break it down in to four sections, starting with...

...the horse, a 10 yr old gelding showing no signs of slowing down. A winner of 3 of his last four starts, having finished 221P11 in his last six (all here over C&D) and now seeks a hat-trick to add to an already decent 12 wins and 13 places from 71 that includes of note today...

  • 11 w, 12pl from 64 going left handed
  • 12+11/57 without headgear
  • 9+10/37 here at Sedgefield
  • 9+8/33 over 2m0.5f-2m1f
  • 9+8/32 at Class 5 for less than £3,500
  • 9+7/30 at 6/1 or shorter
  • 7+5/24 in Feb/March
  • 6+7/24 over fences at C&D
  • 6+8/29 on soft ground
  • and 3 wins from 4 under today's jockey...

...Emma Chaston-Smith, whose career record to date stands at 14 wins from 98 (+14.3% SR) for 18pts (+18.4% ROI), and those include of relevance here...

  • 13/82 (15.9%) for 26.1pts (+31.9%) since the start of 2018
  • 11/51 (21.6%) for 42.1pts (+82.5%) for trainer Micky Hammond (more on him very shortly)
  • 5/18 (27.8%) for 21.2pts (+117.6%) over fences
  • and 4/20 (20%) for 11.2pts (+56%) here at Sedgefield.

Now back to trainer Micky Hammond, because his handicap chasers are 16 from 60 (26.7% SR) for 15.2pts (+25.4% ROI) when sent off at 7/1 or shorter here at Sedgefield since the start of 2015, all males and with the following results under today's conditions...

  • 15/50 (30%) for 22.6pts (+45.2%) with those rested for 6-45 days
  • 14/52 (26.9%) for 17pts (+32.7%) with 7-10 yr olds
  • 9/36 (25%) for 8.68pts (+24.1%) on soft or worse ground
  • 8/20 (40%) for 21.5pts (+107.5%) in Feb/March
  • 8/30 (26.7%) for 14.1pts (+47%) in races worth less than £4,000
  • 7/26 (26.9%) for 14.6pts (+56.1%) at Class 5
  • 5/21 (23.8%) for 6.88pts (+32.7%) over this 2m0.5f C&D
  • and 3/10 (30%) for 2.03pts (+20.3%) with LTO winners

And then, it makes sense (to me at least) with round off with a look at the trainer/jockey combination, as Micky & Emma are 11/46 (23.9% SR) for 47.1pts (+102.4% ROI) when teaming up in handicaps, from which the following baker's dozen of profitable angles are all at play...

  • 10/41 (24.4%) for 48.8pts (+119.1%) with male runners
  • 10/39 (25.6%) for 50.8pts (+130.3%) in Feb/March
  • 8/31 (25.8%) for 46.2pts (+149.1%) on soft or worse ground
  • 8/28 (28.6%) for 45.7pts (+163.1%) in 8-12 runner contests
  • 8/26 (30.8%) for 44.8pts (+172.5%) with 8-10 yr olds
  • 8/25 (32%) for 46.7pts (+186.8%) at Class 5
  • 6/14 (42.9%) for 29.6pts (+211.4%) at odds of 4/1 to 7/1
  • 5/20 (25%) for 28.4pts (+142%) in races worth less than £4k
  • 5/20 (25%) for 13.6pts (+68%) when Emma claims 7lbs
  • 5/14 (35.7%) for 26.9pts (+192.2%) with horses rested for less than three weeks
  • 4/16 (25%) for 15.2pts (+94.9%) here at Sedgefield
  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 16.5pts (+183%) over 2m0.5f-2m1f
  • and 3/10 (30%) for 14.12pts (+141.2%) over fences

Congratulations if you've made it all the way through those numbers, I realise that not everyone is as interested as I am in them, but hopefully your patience will be rewarded...

...if you decide to place...a 1pt win bet on Roxyfet @ 9/2 BOG as was available from Betfair, BetVictor, Hills, Unibet & Paddy Power at 8.05am Tuesday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.15 Sedgefield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!