Tag Archive for: Royal Ascot

Royal Ascot 2026: Day Four Preview, Trends, Tips

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On we go, to the fourth day of five at Royal Ascot but the final day of our full preview coverage. I hope we've managed to add some fun - and maybe a winner or two - to your week. There have been some fireworks already and perhaps, if it's not being greedy, we can add to the pyrotechnics one more time...

 

N.B. Don't forget to check out our full Royal Ascot Friday trends page here.

 

Friday Tix Competition

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Our friends at the tote are refunding stakes (up to a tenner) if your pick runs second in any Royal Ascot race
(*opt in required and, as ever, check the terms, etc).

 

The going for day four of Royal Ascot, Friday 19th June, is: Good to Firm.

GoingStick readings at 8.30am:
Stands’ side: 8.9
Centre: 8.9
Far side: 8.3
Round: 7.6

Stalls:
Straight Course: centre
Round Course: inside

Weather:
Dry overnight to Friday morning. It is forecast to be generally dry through the remainder of the week. Max temps expected to be between 26 and 28c through to Saturday.

Watering:
Watered 5mm on whole track overnight.

 

2.30 THE ALBANY STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 3)

Presented by Gavin Priestley

6 of the last 7 winners had raced in the previous 30-34 day period and we have four fillies this year that fit the bill.

Two of the four finished 1st and 2nd in a Newmarket novice in the middle of May and it's the runner up that appeals the most due to her stable's previous notable record in the race. 

There were four maiden winners of this race between 2005 and 2011 with the last two being trained by the Channon yard who also won three of the first ten renewals of the Albany (the third of their three winners had been beaten under a length at the same Newmarket May meeting as the selection).

It was Andrew Balding's Jolivette that won that Newmarket race but fellow newcomer Topaz ran on really well to move into contention from the rear of the field as they entered the final furlong. She reeled in a number of challengers and kept on in eyecatching fashion without quite getting to Jolivette, who had got the first run on the field, and she had to settle for finishing a neck down at the line. Topaz entered a lot of notebooks for that run and she'll be winning races for a stable with previous pedigree with this type of filly.

She certainly doesn't deserve to be twice the price of the Newmarket winner and seems to offer a fair bit of value for a yard looking to reclaim former glories.

 

Suggestion: Try Topaz EW 25/1 (4 places)

 

 

 

Tix Pointers: All of the last 13 winners also won last time out; but plenty of big priced horses have made the frame. I'll be spreading out with last day winners.

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3.05 THE COMMONWEALTH CUP (CLASS 1) (Group 1)

Presented by Matt Bisogno

The newest Group 1 at the Royal meeting, the Commonwealth Cup has bridged a glaring gap for top class three-year-olds that either failed to stay the Guineas trip or were never intended to go that far.

Although fields are usually large, winners have tended to be lurking in the shallows: ten of the 11 winners to date were sent off 12/1 or shorter and in the top five (including joints) in the betting. Of course, lobbing a curveball, was last year's scorer, Time For Sandals at 25/1. She was a third filly to win the race from 45 starters; the fairer sex has a similar win rate but a better place rate and a much better PRB.

With 22 scheduled to go to post, it might be worth noting that the two longest priced winners were when the field size was 21+. Only the electric Campanelle was able to go gate to wire, eight of the 11 winners settling in the second half of the field through the early stages.

The best trials have been the Sandy Lane, the Carnarvon and the 2000 Guineas.

Venetian Sun won the Sandy Lane at Haydock last time having looked a non-stayer in the 1000 Guineas previously. As a juvenile she lowered Gstaad's colours in the G1 Prix Morny and is unbeaten at 6f or shorter. She'll be at peak fitness and was ultra-impressive last time out. The problem is that she's very short - 6/4 in a field of 22 for a Group 1.

Aidan O'Brien is naturally represented here, by the runner-up from the Carnarvon Stakes, Albert Einstein. He's not won above Group 3 level and there's no clear reason why he should reverse form on this more testing track with the re-opposing winner that day, Song Of The Clyde. Moreover, Aidan's record in the Commonwealth Cup is uncharacteristically average: just one win (Caravaggio) from 18 starters. He's had favourites sent off 5/6, 10/11, evens, 11/4 and 10/3 with only the aforementioned horse-named-after-a-painter getting it done, at 5/6. You don't need to be Einstein to figure that the Ballydoyle runner is a bit on the skinny side at 6/1.

Carnarvon winners are actually two from two in this, both Eqtidaar and Shaquille doubling up; that means Song Of The Clyde deserves at least a second squint. He was a rock solid juvenile, winning almost half a million quid courtesy of valuable sales races in which he won and ran second in fields of 21. He does tend to race prominently or on the lead and he'll need the far side rail to ride quicker than it has done in the early part of the week from his berth in 2, but he fits on form.

On the high side, Wesley Ward runs Outfielder, fourth (beaten 2.75L) in Venetian Sun's Morny and a winner of both starts Stateside this season. Fast turf is no issue to this dirt bred US speedster - he has two wins on firm over there - but a straight six with an uphill finish might be tough to sustain for a horse that wears his heart on his sleeve out front. Still, he'll likely offer a bold sight for backers and was still hanging tough with a furlong to go in the one mile Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf last autumn (he really should have run in the Juvenile Turf Sprint, as I wrote at the time!).

Also high is the second Aidan arrow, Charles Darwin: Ballydoyle have really sent their top scientists to this one. Darwin was drawn similarly high when winning the five furlong Norfolk at this meeting last year and added a verdict over the extra furlong on debut in 2026. He clunked in a G3 last time, Ryan reporting he thought the horse had lost its action, and Wayne Lordan takes over now. Lordan has won five Group 1's since the beginning of last season, including both the Newmarket and Irish 1000 Guineas this spring. This son of No Nay Never was unbeaten in four prior to that last day glitch and gets first time blinkers here; he's a certain forward goer which, as mentioned, may not be a positive.

There is actually a ton of pace drawn high. As well as Outfielder and Charles Darwin, Rock On Thunder (drawn 22) and Fitzella (16) are also habitual trailblazers, as to a slightly lesser degree Brussels (18), the third APO'B runner. That might mean they go too hard stands side; but, if they don't, the likeliest to pick up the pieces are Venetian Sun (13) and Wise Approach (15).

The last named is a bit of a forgotten man in this. He was less than a length behind Venetian Sun in the Morny before winning the Group 1 Middle Park over 6f.  True, he's underwhelmed twice in the spring, when beaten about three lengths in each of the Pavilion Stakes (a trial for this) and the Carnarvon; but what if those were sighters for his primary target, the Commonwealth Cup? An alternative theory is that he hasn't trained on - and that holds some water at this stage - but his price is playable and he figures to get a pace setup most likely.

Coppull won the Pavilion last time, and as a two-year-old was a close third to Wise Approach in the Middle Park and a slightly more distant third behind Gstaad in the Coventry. He has two solid bits of track and trip form, then, and is genuine Group 1 class. Stall 14 sandwiches him between Venetian Sun and Wise Approach.

If high numbers have had the best of it so far this week (Tue/Wed as I write this Thursday morning), the stall positions of CC winners gives pause for thought. To wit, last year stall 1 of 21, then 1 of 14, 3 of 13, 1 of 20, 11 of 15, 10 of 16, 4 of 9, and 3 of 22. Hmm. But let's take a breath and consider the evidence more broadly.

 

 

The chart above is PRB3 (the average percentage of rivals beaten of a stall and its immediate neighbours) by actual draw position (accounting for non-runners). This is a really good way of smoothing the curve and getting under the skin of seemingly counter-intuitive draw bias numbers. What it shows is that low draws have performed pretty well, especially very low; but so, too, have very high numbers: it appears that being close to either rail is an advantage. That makes a lot more sense even if it doesn't especially help us find the winner, not obviously at any rate.

What we can say is that those drawn in the middle have tended to struggle, which brings in Wise Approach and Venetian Sun. Good grief, help!

There's one more I want to highlight. Drawn 3 is Division, a Wathnan Racing-owned son of Kingman who has probably been screaming for a setup like this. He won a 13-runner Listed race at York over six last October and then, in two spins this term, ran an eyecatching closing third in the Pavilion (course and distance) and then got closest to Venetian Sun in the Sandy Lane at Haydock. He is a closer and, while most of the pace is high, the low numbers have Song Of The Clyde (2), Zanthos (1) and Havana Anna (7). They look sure to carry Division into the mix on his side, from where it's a case of whether they're in front or behind the other lot - assuming there's a, erm, division in the field.

Suggestion: It's a really tricky race if you, like me, want to oppose the 'obvious' filly in the field, Venetian Sun. She might very well win but I can't be taking 6/4. Instead I'm going make two small each way plays, on Wise Approach and Division. If low is again the place to be - or at least not the place not to be (eh?) - 12/1 Division should be bang there. Wise Approach, also 12/1, does require a touch more imagination, but if you like VS from 13 you can't mind WA from 15; he obviously needs to step up on his 2026 level thus far.

 

Tix Pointers: It's not been a crazy race from a placepot perspective. That said, last year was 25/1, 28/1, 20/1, with the first two home drawn 1 and 20 in a field of 21. I'm definitely going deeper than the favourite on my A tickets.

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3.40 THE DUKE OF EDINBURGH STAKES (CLASS 2) (Handicap) (GBBPLUS RACE)

Presented by Sam Darby 

This will be my strongest fancy of the week in what is traditionally my favourite race of the meeting - hopefully we’re rewarded. I tend to only bet in the handicaps, and the straight course races are obviously highly unpredictable, not just because of the number of runners but also because the draw bias can be difficult to get right.

There is a clear draw bias over 12f though, and that doesn’t change from race to race or meeting to meeting fortunately.





Even a quick glance at the above shows a strong draw bias towards the higher numbers and, particularly, away from the low numbers.

In terms of PRB3, even the worst of the double figure stalls is pretty much better than any single figure stall and the best single figure stalls come out as 8 and 9.

It’s not impossible to defy a lower draw, of course - the last three winners of this race have come from single figures (7, 4 and 9). However, the previous seven winners came from 19, 19, 14,12, 12, 19 and 18. 

Before I delve into the pace map and form, the other thing worth flagging is the role the draw plays in any pace bias. To defy a lower draw, you generally need to be prominent. That makes perfect sense given the patiently ridden horses from low stalls will often meet significant trouble in running in such large fields.

The sweet spot appears to be a middle to high draw, with a prominent or mid division racing style. The pace map below is sorted high draws at the top to low draws at the bottom.



There look to be three potential front runners in this, all drawn middle to high. I’m not convinced they’ll go massively hard, but it does look likely to be run at an even gallop at least, and should be a pretty fair race on that score.

I’ll cut straight to the chase. The horse I really like for this is HOPEWELL ROCK.

For those of you who have read other previews and articles I’ve written, you’ll probably know that hot form plays a huge part in my selection process. I already liked Hopewell Rock for this at the five day stage, but he was given an almighty form boost in the final race on day one of this meeting.

On seasonal debut at Newmarket, in a steadily run contest, Hopewell Rock did well to finish 3rd (beaten just 1.75 lengths) after being held up out the back. The first two home were Daiquiri Bay and Gamrai, who held the first two positions throughout. That pair then finished 1st and 2nd again in the Copper Horse Stakes on Tuesday.

Opportunity was the ante post favourite for this but I already thought he might be vulnerable having gone up 8lbs for winning what looked a fairly weak race last time, albeit winning it very well. He’s now been handed stall 1, which has a dreadful record in these races, and I’d be very confident in opposing this horse.

Warrant Holder fared much better with the draw (17) and he’s sure to be popular given his profile. It’s worth noting though that he was 5.5 lengths behind Hopewell Rock at Leicester in October and is now 11lbs worse off with that rival. That’s not to say he can’t reverse the form eight months later - a lot of water has passed under the bridge since - but Warrant Holder’s subsequent exploits are another form boost for the selection.

That horse is probably the main danger to Hopewell Rock, whilst at bigger prices, I could see Plage De Havre running into the places. He looks held by the handicapper, but his Old Newton Cup demolition job last year worked out extremely well, and being 10lbs higher for winning that race by four lengths makes him vulnerable to less exposed rivals without ruling him out.

It will be interesting to see what race position Hopewell Rock can get early. I’d have definitely preferred a higher draw to guarantee a wider trip. From stall 8, I still worry that James McDonald won’t have done his homework and he’ll switch him inside and have him out the back. He will have a massive chance of riding the winner if he can keep wider and slot in around mid division, before challenging down the outside in the straight.

If you can get 5/1+, I think he’s still okay as an each way bet.

Suggestion: Back Hopewell Rock e/w at 5/1+

 

Tix Pointers: High draws are fine here, and horses patiently ridden and lucky in the run are those on which to focus. Obviously we won't know which are which on either count until after the race - annoying!

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4.20 THE CORONATION STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 1)

Presented by Matt Bisogno

If the St James's Palace Stakes on Tuesday is a confluence of the European 2000 Guineas form, then the Coronation Stakes is the 1000 Guineas' equivalent. Sadly, with no French entry this year it looks a straight match between the winners at Newmarket and the Curragh, both trained by that man Aidan.

At Newmarket, Precise was favoured and ridden by Ryan Moore but True Love won, ridden by Wayne Lordan. Precise, racing on the other side of the track, was beaten five lengths by a winner that was a neck shy of two lengths better than anything else in the race.

If we thought we had our miling queen crowned, the Curragh was a reset of pre-Newmarket thinking. This time, True Love was favoured and ridden by Moore, but Precise re-asserted her primacy in the hands of Wayne Lordan. Precise 1 True Love 1, but Wayne 2 Ryan 0. How frustrating it must be for a jockey in such a position.

Precise is likely to be waited with, as is her wont, and in a smallish field that ought not to be an issue; she looks good to go 2-1 ahead on her fellow Classic-winning stablemate, and 4/6 might not be an uncharitable offer from the layers either, if odds on is your thing.

If there's one thing that tempers enthusiasm, it's O'Brien's relatively poor record in the Coronation Stakes. Since 2009, he's saddled 24 fillies and won just twice, with Lillie Langtry in 2010 and Winter in 2017. Hermosa was beaten at evens, Found at 13/8, Homecoming Queen at 9/4, Opera Singer at 10/3 and Meditate and Together, both 7/2. Food for thought, at least.

I got the impression that Newmarket may have taken plenty out of True Love, who was clearly riper that day, when she ran fairly flat at the Curragh - albeit still grabbing the silver medal. As such, I'd be more wary of her this time. Depending on whether I'm right or wrong on that, there are one or two each way places to play for so let's go deeper into the field.

Touleen raced on the same (wrong) side as Precise in the 1000 Guineas, and finished half a length in front of that one though no match for Evolutionist (a noted absentee here) who 'won' that far side race. She'd previously run a lovely race in defeat in the Fred Darling, closing for second over the inadequate seven furlongs at Newbury. Owen Burrows is a trainer I respect more than most and he's eminently capable with a decent Shadwell horse (think Hukum, Alflaila, Minzaal, Anmaat). There's a feeling this filly has a bit more to come and, though there needs to be on the balance of respective form, she's a definite place player at least.

We haven't seen Balantina since last season, which didn't stop Inspiral in 2022; but that filly was unbeaten whereas this one brings solid but not outstanding claims to the party. Her trainer, Donnacha O'Brien, won this two years ago with Porta Fortuna but she arrived with a neck second in the 1000 Guineas under her belt. There are enough reasons to discount her this time though I'll be very interested to see how she runs with a view to the second half of the campaign.

Fourth at the Curragh was Black Caviar Gold, and she gets a first time visor here. Trainer Paddy Twomey has reached for the visor five times in the past two years, saddling a winner and two seconds from that quintet. They were all very well fancied, however, so that doesn't really tell us anything! This filly doesn't look good enough, in truth.

Similar comments apply to each of Timeforshowcasing, Moon Target and Rose Ghaiyyath, but Sukanya may not be completely without hope. She won the Fred Darling, beating Touleen, before running no sort of a race in the Irish 1000. She got a bump at the start there and was lit up and keen as a result; as such, she was entitled to guzzle her gas before the race was over. It wouldn't be the biggest shock if she made the frame.

Suggestion: This is not a deep renewal and 4/6 PRECISE probably wins. The obvious alternative, True Love from the same stable, looks opposable I think, making 9/1 Touleen reasonable each way value. Hail Mary players might consider a ha'penny each way on 40/1 Sukanya in case her Curragh spin was a chuck out.

 

Tix Pointers: The favourite or second favourite has placed in 12 of the last 13 years. Favourite banker?

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5.00 THE SANDRINGHAM STAKES (CLASS 2) (Handicap)

Presented by Dave Renham

A 3yo fillies handicap over the straight mile to finish my week’s work. I’ll start by taking a look at the 15-year trends, which see four strong pointers.

Market Rank

Six wins for the SP favourites (seven for the BSP fav) so, despite having big fields generally (11 of the races with 20+ runners), the market has proved a good guide as far as market leaders are concerned.

Price LTO

Related, 14 of the last 15 winners returned an SP of 17/2 or less LTO. A further 31 were placed. Horses priced 9/1 or bigger LTO have won just once from 123 runners (10 placed).

Weight Rank

Seven of the last 15 winners have come from the top four in the weights (inc. joint 4th). This equates to 47% of the winners from just under 20% of the total runners. Also, a further 14 were placed.

Position LTO

Eight of the last 15 winners won LTO. This equates to 53% of the winners from just 28% of the total runners.

 

We have a few angles for those who follow long term race trends, then.

Looking at the draw now, and last year the first three horses were drawn 2, 6 and 1, whereas in 2023 the first seven home were drawn middle to high. This race has not been that easy to predict draw wise, unlike some of the other straight course races that have tended to show a more reliable and consistent bias. However, I personally will take high to middle over low unless the ground comes up soft, which given the forecast seems very unlikely.

Moving onto run style / pace, 10 of the last 11 winners, and 36 of 44 win & placed runners, were either held up or raced no closer than midfield early. This seems to be a race where waiting tactics are the order of the day. Here is the pace map this time around:

 

 

 

All the early pace looks to be in the high numbers here so a middle to high draw could be the place to be.

 

Here are some of the leading contenders...

Seet – trained by the Gosdens who won this race in 2023 with Coppice. Is a very good trends fit and seems to have the right pace profile albeit having had just three career runs (six of the last 18 winners had just the three runs). Ryan Moore is an interesting jockey booking and, since 2008, the Moore/Gosden combo has secured 40 wins from 149 rides hitting close to a 27%-win rate, and this year they are currently seven from 12. Drawn 20 looks decent based on the pace map.

Glyfada – not seen on a racecourse as a 2yo but has had two wins and a second from three starts this year. Irish raiders have been successful a couple of times in the last 15 years. Oisin Murphy takes the ride which looks a positive. Drawn 31 which I am thinking might be a good one.

Symbol of Majesty – another from the Gosden yard. Was beaten favourite last time at Wolverhampton when getting poorly positioned from off the pace. Will need to bounce back. Drawn 21.

Darn Hot Gallop – Out of her depth in the 1000 Guineas but previously was three from three at a lower level. If the stable really thought the horse had the potential to be competitive at Group 1 level, then she must have a chance here.

Rosa Inglesa – Charlie Fellows bagged this race in consecutive years in 2019 and 2020 and runs Rosa Inglesa this time. Last time out was a comfortable winner at Nottingham and has been raised 9lb for that success. That doesn’t look too harsh to me. Drawn 19.

 

Suggestion: Famous last words but I want to be drawn middle to high here and hence my three favoured horses are Seet (drawn 20), Rosa Inglesa (drawn 19) and Glyfada (drawn 31). I’m going to suggest 5/1 Seet to win and 9/1 Glyfada each way.

 

Tix Pointers: A race where staying close to the top of the market has served very well. And a patient ride (midfield or held up) has got 11 of the last 13 winners.

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5.35 THE KING EDWARD VII STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 2)

Presented by Rory Delargy

Traditionally known as the ‘Ascot Derby’ the King Edward VII is rarely a target for those who have gone to Epsom due to its proximity, and it no longer enjoys the status it once enjoyed for all it still retains Group 2 status. Derby flop Ancient Egypt bids to get his career back on track but while I’d excuse his Epsom run on account of the soft ground, it almost always pays to pass over those who come here via Epsom, and he may have to wait for another day.

The race appears to be a clash between Gallinule Stakes winner Causeway and the Kempton novice winner Water Into Wine and the argument is whether the former can utilise his experience against a horse who had little more than an exercise gallop against vastly inferior rivals last time.

Causeway is a typical Coolmore product, being a son of Wootton Bassett out of a beautifully bred daughter of Galileo. His profile suggests that the trip could be an issue as he raced at a mile or shorter on his first four runs, but there is plenty of stamina in his pedigree and Coolmore have been breeding Galileo to speedily bred mares to produce middle-distance stars for long enough to know how the magic happens.

Causeway stepped up to ten furlongs in the Gallinule, a Group 3 that has thrown out champions like Ardross and Assert in bygone days, but only Leading Light has gone on to much greater things of recent winners and Causeway beat only a useful bunch to score at the Curragh. That said, he did score in the style of an improving colt, repelling the challenge of Zia Zabel with more in hand than a head would suggest. On the evidence of the run, he will stay this longer trip and looks a solid contender.

Water Into Wine has won a maiden and a novice in two starts, both over 1m3f, and has yet to be extended. The question with him is working out how much substance there is beneath the obvious style, and whether it’s enough to justify favouritism here. First of all, I’ll admit he didn’t beat anything of merit at Kempton last time when cruising to an 11-length win; but his victory on debut at Newbury is a better effort to judge him on, and he was less experienced than the colt he slammed into second that day. That colt, Richard Hannon’s Alderman, went on to Epsom on the back of that second-place effort and finished a highly creditable fifth to Christmas Day in the Derby, beating the likes of Pierre Bonnard, Ancient Egypt and Item by upwards of 2¾ lengths. That might flatter him a little but Water Into Wine made him look slow at Newbury and the winner is entitled to take another step forward given he’s yet to be fully tested.

Some are wary of the switch from all-weather to turf for big races, but Newbury proves he’s effective on firmish ground and I’m inclined to take a very positive view of his form, with his campaign reminiscent of the way Lucarno was campaigned for the same connections before winning the St Leger. I think John Gosden has been quite clever to come here rather than the Queen’s Vase as he was likely to find a smaller field, which will help to offset his inexperience. Causeway will be by far his toughest opponent and will not lie down, but I expect Water To Wine won’t need a miracle to maintain his unbeaten record.

 

Suggestion: 1pt Exacta Water To Wine/Causeway

 

Tix Pointers: Only the Covid edition messed things up for jollies on the placepot ticket. As the last leg, it might be one in which to bank and lay the favourite for a place on the exchange?

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6.10 THE PALACE OF HOLYROODHOUSE STAKES (CLASS 2) (Handicap)

Presented by David Massey

There’s a fair spread of pace across the course here, although I’d be surprised if anything led up the speedball that is Revival Power from the low numbers. I’m a massive fan of hers, she did me a few good turns last year but it is worth remembering she did get herself a bit stewed up before the Queen Mary last year and her effort fizzled out as a result. If she can keep a lid on things this time around then obviously her chance would increase, but I suspect there are other targets for her in the second half of the season and it’ll probably be a watching brief.

Only two horses with single-figure draws have hit the frame in this in the last five years; compare that to nine drawn 20 or above that have delivered an each-way return (and that includes three winners) and it probably pays to stick with those drawn high. With that, I think Starmade, from stall 30, makes plenty of interest.

So far Starmade has won twice on the all-weather, successful over 6f at Newcastle last time out (third a winner since) and whilst his three turf efforts don’t match that form, he’s only raced on ground described by Timeform as either soft or good to soft. There must be a chance he is going to improve for quicker conditions here, and the way he travels strongly towards the midfield/rear in his races is probably the right sort of runstyle required to win this. I see some 25s around as I type; 20s and bigger looks perfectly fair.

Dickensian, second in the Windsor Castle last year, is more obvious but is worth pointing out all the same. Last year, he was showing a lot of speed in his races and not always seeing them out, so it was interesting to see new tactics employed on his reappearance at York last month, Shane Gray dropping him out and allowing a fast pace to come back to him at the finish. He showed plenty of tenacity to poke his head in front late on, and that form looks strong; the second home, Simplify, is an improver, and third home Aspect Island lost nothing in defeat when finishing midfield in the King Charles III Stakes here on Tuesday. There should be more to come from him now he’s shown himself tactically versatile.

To complete the shortlist, there's nothing wrong with the claims of James Owen's Cherry Baker. Her profile is probably a bit less sexy than a few, but she's nicely drawn, has the right hold-up run style, and it's a case of whether a drop to five furlongs is going to suit. It might, as for all she's been tried over seven furlongs and a mile, her best form has come over six, her record at that trip reading 112; she comes here in cracking form after two good efforts at Chester. It's not hard to see her finishing off well, and she's one you should at least have in all your exotics here.

Suggestion: Try Starmade e/w at 25/1 or bigger, or Dickensian at 12/1

*

That's it from us for Royal Ascot week. As always, we invite you to go solo on Saturday, and wish you all the best of luck. Thank you very much to my fantastic support (Dave Renham, Sam Darby, Gavin Priestley, David Massey and Rory Delargy) and, mostly, thank you very much to you for following along with us. I hope you've been lucky.

Enjoy the rest of the sport!

Matt

Royal Ascot 2026: Day 3 Preview, Trends, Tips

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It's Gold Cup day, or Ladies' Day - or even Thursday, or Day 3. The hump day of Royal Ascot features the showcase event, the Gold Cup, a Group 1 run over two and a half miles. There is, of course, a further trio of top class shermozzles either side of that blockbuster, so let's get to it...

 

Notes: you can also check out our full Royal Ascot Friday trends page here.

 

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Our friends at the tote are refunding stakes (up to a tenner) if your pick runs second in any Royal Ascot race
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Going: Good to Firm

Goingstick:
Stands side: 8.8
Centre: 8.7
Far side: 8.7
Round: 7.5

Soil Moisture: 41%, readings taken on Thursday at 8.30am.

Rails:
The rail on the round course is now at full width everywhere. Providing fresh ground today from 9f out to the Home straight

Stalls:
Straight Course: Centre

Round Course: Inside

 

2.30 THE CHESHAM STAKES (CLASS 1) (Listed)

Presented by Matt Bisogno

In a change to the running order, the Chesham appears as the first race of the Ladies' Day card, a trappy seven-furlong juvenile heat for Listed honours.

The Chesham cheat code appears to be thus: either a once-raced Aidan that got beat, or one of the top three unbeaten-in-one horses in the market. That would have got you nine of the last 11 winners, one of the other pair being the unbackable Holloway Boy on debut and the other the dual winner Pinatubo. Those winners included 12/1 Snellen and 14/1 Suits You.

Taking that approach aligns quite well with the market, the nominated APO'B runner Aix La Chapelle heading the field. He was easy enough to back when sent off 4/1 on his debut (7f, good to yielding) a fortnight ago, and had plenty to do a quarter mile from home. But the further they went the more inevitable was the son of Justify's victory, eventually pulling away by a widening length and a half. He made up a good five lengths in those final two furlongs and looks the obvious one to beat granted normal improvement.

Richard Hannon sends Aperoll with a similar profile to the favourite. She, too, is a once raced winner from about a fortnight ago, though she was more handily placed when taking a Newbury novice over six and a half furlongs. A daughter of Ghaiyyath, she's a January foal and as such is entitled to a precocity edge on most of her rivals. Plenty of fillies have won the Chesham in recent times, including Bedtime Story (2024) and Snellen (2023) as well as September (2017).

Karl Burke won this race in 2022 with the unraced Holloway Boy - some feat - and he's since further advertised himself as one of the top trainers in the country, particularly when it comes to juveniles. He's represented by Revels, easy three length winner of a Redcar maiden a month ago on his sole start. The second has yet to run again but the third won by almost five lengths on his next outing. This son of Lope De Vega is, unsurprisingly perhaps, owned by a member of the Mars family - Ms L Mars, in fact - and she's another that can obviously step forward. [Proud of myself for resisting all kinds of sugar/confectionery puns there].

Time For The Moon shouted his credentials when blitzing a field of Musselburgh novices by 7½ lengths - yikes. However, that was on his second start so he's less scope to improve than the once raced brigade, and - respectfully - it was Musselburgh and the time was good but not great. Moreover, he's gone from the front in his two races so far, with only last year's winner, Humidity, managing to make all in the past decade. It's not easy to do. Still, he has credentials.

Sea Venture has had the sole start, bolting up by three lengths in a Haydock fillies' maiden four weeks, and she is another unexposed runner. The form awaits a boost, though, with none of the five runners since making the frame; that includes the second and fourth, both beaten more than five lengths on their next starts.

Another son of Justify, Nola Soul, travels across for trainer John Stack. He beat a couple of Aidan's as well as a horse called Chesham, presumably fancied at some point to wind up here; closest to him that day, however, was King Of Cloughan which runs in the Windsor Castle on Wednesday: that clearly will be a line of the merit of the form, with the third-placed horse already having won since.

The most expensive horse in the field is an Amo-owned Charlie Johnston-trained Frankel colt called Pikachu. Named after the cute little pokemon, he was second on debut at Thirsk, behind the more experienced Alfred Wallace - another headed for Wednesday's Windsor Castle - and should improve plenty for that. He's a place player at least.

 

Suggestion: Aidan won this in 2024, 2021, 2020, 2017 and 2016; but he didn't win in three of the past four years. Aix La Chapelle has a very good chance and I think I'll save on him; but I'm going to have a point apiece on a couple at prices, Aperoll and Revels. Not because I'm thirsty and hungry, you understand, but rather because both bring impressive unbeaten-in-one form to the party and look definite value at around 10/1.

 

Tix Pointers: Keep it Aidan on A, and unbeaten winners of one on B.

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3.05 THE KING GEORGE V STAKES (CLASS 2) (Heritage Handicap) (GBBPLUS RACE)

Presented by Rory Delargy

The most interesting angle into this 1½m handicap is the effect of the draw. Logically, on a round course, the uneducated view (including among jockeys and trainers who should know better) is that being drawn close to the inside is a positive, and being drawn very wide is a negative. The truth is very different, as results of races over course and distance, and particularly the King George V, show. Here are the results since 2021 based on stall number:

2021: 17-11-21-10
2022: 8-3-12-5
2023: 21-8-16-22
2024: 18-19-8-13
2025: 20-21-3-2

As you can see, a very wide draw is no disadvantage (such results are borne out on a wider scale) and while those drawn low can and do get involved, they are the ones who tend to require a bit of luck in the run. When the field fans out in the straight, those who come widest tend to end up on the quicker ground and when races are run at a strong gallop as they usually are, those coming late and wide are at an advantage. 2022 was a year where the pace slackened mid-race, favouring those who were well positioned at that point, but it’s a rarity for pace to drop in that way with plenty usually keen to press on.

The pace map suggests that low-drawn horses should dominate the early stages but because those who want to lead are drawn close together, there must also be a decent chance that they get involved in a battle for primacy that produces some overly strong early fractions. Those on the front end can enhance their chances by dapping on the brakes at that point as a relentless gallop will play to the hold-up horses, but predicting mid-race tactics is almost impossible in advance and I’m relying on the pace map which predicts the gallop will be strong.

 

 

A strong pace isn’t just an indicator of where in the field the winner might emerge, but confirms that whatever horse wins will have had to show stamina for the trip; on that basis, I’d be keen to exclude those who appear best at up to 1¼m.  A key trial for this is the London Gold Cup at Newbury, which this year saw Lost Boys beat Sahara King and Tierra Del Toro. That was over 1¼m and I thought Tierra Del Toro was the one of the principals who would most benefit from the extra quarter mile here, as he took time to hit top gear before staying on best of all in the closing stages. He was without a prep run for that valuable contest, so I expect him to improve a little more for that first outing of the season, and while I’d prefer him to be drawn wider, stall 10 looks a good spot to stalk the leaders while keeping out of trouble. Ralph Beckett’s Lope de Vega gelding is untried at the trip and his half-brother Alcaraz has won only at 1¼m, but their dam is a full-sister to dual Arc winner Treve, which gives plenty of confidence that he will relish 1½m.

Cannes is one who looks sure to benefit from a test of stamina having landed a decent maiden over the trip at Leopardstown last month. That form looked good at the time and has been franked by wins for the third and fourth placed horses since (second yet to race again), while Cannes is likely to do better still as his stamina is drawn out in a well-run race, his dam being a half-sister to Mojo Star, who was runner-up in the Derby, St Leger and the Gold Cup here. I don’t think the Leopardstown contest got to the bottom of Cannes and he remains completely unexposed. Joseph O’Brien had his handicap record at Royal Ascot questioned at the start of the week, but saddling the 1-2 in the Ascot Stakes answered such criticism in resounding fashion. Stall 21 is a cracking position based on recent results of this race and he should have the race run to suit.

 

Suggestion:  1pt e/w Tierra del Toro @ 8/1 (Bet365, Hills – 5 places); 1pt e/w Cannes @ 11/1 (general – 5 places)

 

Tix Pointers: High draws are where it's been at. One day it won't go that way, but usually that's the counter-intuitive route in Royal Ascot handicaps over 1m4f.

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3.40 THE RIBBLESDALE STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 2)

Presented by David Massey

John & Thady Gosden’s Legacy Link seemingly holds all the aces here. Her dam is Frankel’s full sister, and this filly is already building a little legacy (pardon the wordplay) of her own, still looking far from the finished project when winning the Musidora at York, outbattling the smoother-travelling Felicitas; and then her second in the Oaks to Thundering On, where she saw out the mile and a half well enough, another step forward.

She is, on form, the one to beat. But look at the prices of the last five winners; 7-1, 12-1, 13-2, 11-4, 18-1. Not a favourite in sight, and we’ve seen the likes of Kalpana, Al Asifah and Noon Star, good fillies all, turned over after previous good runs in Musidoras, Pretty Pollys and Oaks's. Yes, it’s been a bit of a favourites' graveyard recently, and that gives you hope if you’re taking her on.

Gilded Prize has been made second favourite by the books but it’s hard to see what that's based on. Yes, she was impressive enough when winning a Group 3 at Saint-Cloud back in April; but that form would need improving on, and she looked a bit on the slow side when easily brushed aside at Longchamp last time. This step up in trip might help, but all in all she looks short enough.

Earth Shot is improving for William Haggas and her head second to Inis Mor in the Height Of Fashion at Goodwood looks better after the winner finished third in the Prix de Diane at Chantilly last weekend, a very good run. On the bare form she has a lot to find, but she’s going the right way and her pedigree offers plenty of hope she’ll improve again for moving up in trip, the dam a winner at a mile and three-quarters. I like her profile and she is on my shortlist.

Aidan O’Brien has won this for the last three years with lesser fancied fillies, and Composing fits the bill as far as that profile is concerned. She’s getting a pair of blinkers to try and get her back on track, and that did the trick for Port Fairy a couple of years ago when O’Brien equipped her with a first-time visor. Impressive when rattling off a hat-trick last summer, including in G2 and G3 company, she appears to have lost her way this year; but her last of six at Longchamp last time wasn’t a bad effort strictly on the figures, and given she’s looked a bit short on gears this mile and a half could help. I can’t quite bring myself to put the red pen through her, given her trainer's recent record in the race. I think she might keep drifting and if there’s some 20-1 around on the day, I can see myself having a small win-only bet.

I think, if there’s going to be an upset, then Ralph Beckett’s Lady Roisia might be the one to supply it. If there’s one horse that’s almost cast-iron to be guaranteed to appreciate a step up to twelve furlongs then it’s her: the dam was Oaks winner Talent (also trained by Beckett) and there’s stamina on the sire’s side, too. Badly in need of her first run of the season at Newbury when third to Esna, she’ll strip a lot fitter for that here and I liked her physically when she won at Nottingham at the back end of last year. In a race that keeps throwing up little surprises, let’s hope she’s the latest in that line; at 20-1, I make her the each-way bet here.

Suggestion: Try Lady Roisia each way at 20/1

 

Tix Pointers: Aidan and Team Gosden have won ten of the last dozen renewals. They were unplaced in the other two though, so maybe leave a trailing leg?

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4.15 THE GOLD CUP (CLASS 1) (Group 1)

Presented by Matt Bisogno

The Gold Cup is historically the centrepiece of the entire Royal Ascot meeting, and chronologically precisely that fulcrum, with 17 races before and the same number after. It might be that races like the St James's Palace Stakes have become a little more fashionable with speed admired over resolve these days, but this is always a compelling watch and frequently the province of the returning champ - who doesn't love that?

This century has given us the brilliant four-time winner Yeats, triple scorer Stradivarius, and dual champs Royal Rebel and Kyprios. Where better to begin, then, than with the defending Gold Cup hero Trawlerman? It's fair to say that I was a little unkind to him in the aftermath of last year's Gold Cup, opining that a seven-year-old couldn't be improving and that he'd been given a very soft time of it on the front end that day.

While there was some truth in my brickbats, Trawlerman went unbeaten in two further races last term, the G2 Lonsdale Cup and the G1 Long Distance Cup on Champions Day. A feature of his wins has been a mid-race injection of pace and then even finishing fractions: in plain English, he gets his rivals out of their comfort zone early and then keeps them uncomfortable.

It's probably fair to say that it was far from a vintage renewal last year, and indeed that the staying crop was below par as a whole. That counts against the dependable but (relatively) limited Sweet William, stablemate of Trawlerman, who possibly doesn't quite stay this far either. He did win the Doncaster Cup over 2m2f and kicked off 2026 with a win in the Sagaro here over two miles. A very likeable chap, he's not on my mind for this.

Of the other golden oldies, Dubai Future stayed on into a never dangerous 3rd a year ago and he's 50/1; he will presumably again be ridden to pick up pieces. And Al Nayyir has been consistent, mainly in defeat and usually at slightly below top class.

Joseph O'Brien showed his talents with stayers on the flat on Tuesday when saddling a 1-2 over the course and distance in the Ascot Stakes, so his Al Riffa is worth a second glance. Now six, he was a Group 1 winner in Germany in 2024, and he doubled his top tier tally when bagging last year's Irish St Leger over 1m6f. Since then, he's been racking up the Avios (and almost £300,000 in prizemoney), with good runs in defeat in Australia, Hong Kong, Dubai and France. This will be a half mile trip increase and he's not certain to stay, but he does bring a level of form few of his rivals can boast.

It's been quite the journey for Caballo De Mar, beaten 15 lengths in a novice stakes this week two years ago - to be fair, the winner was Ombudsman! - and a seven-race maiden before breaking his duck, off 64, in an Ayr handicap in September 2024. What fun connections have had since, as this unfashionably bred and cheaply bought son of Phoenix Of Spain has totted up nine wins via that starter at Ayr, then Southwell four times on the bounce (!), Haydock, Dortmund and Longchamp twice - both Group 1's. Additionally, he ran second in the Chester Cup, the Copper Horse Stakes here last year, the Dubai Gold Cup and in Sweet William's Sagaro. Wow. I do have a niggle that some of those overseas wins were a little below the level needed here, and I suspect Al Riffa will reverse the French form from last time if he sees out the extra yardage.

The other new kids on the block and, aged four with a bit more improvement potentially, are Rahiebb and Scandinavia. Rahiebb is trained by Roger Varian and, after a three-year-old season of knocking on the door - most notably when a neck second to Scandinavia in the St Leger - the more mature four-year-old model was an unequivocal winner of the Group 2 Yorkshire Cup in mid-May. That was 1m6f and he'll go almost a full Wokingham further here, which is the major question mark. His late sectionals certainly lend credence to the idea that he will stay but it's a risk that needs factoring into his price.

Rahiebb's old rival Scandinavia comes here on a five match unbeaten run that started in the G3 Bahrain Trophy last July and has taken in the Goodwood Cup, the St Leger (Doncaster), the Vintage Crop (Navan) and the Saval Beg at Leopardstown. As a result of that nap hand he's a very short price here, but he's not actually stepped forward on his level of form across that quintet of scores. He definitely looks under-priced to me and I'm taking him on, for all that he obviously has a sexy knack of getting the job done.

In the end, it looks a three-horse go between the top trio in the market: Scandinavia, Rahiebb and Trawlerman. Although he still sets the standard, my feeling is that Trawlerman, on seasonal bow and now aged eight, is vulnerable to the more progressive four-year-olds. There was only a neck between Scandinavia and Rahiebb in the St Leger last autumn, the latter finishing well and just failing to get up. With both of them needing to prove they stay this far, the value call is definitely Rahiebb.

I expect that Al Riffa could get into the first four if he stays, and maybe onto the podium. He's clear best of the rest for me.

Suggestion: Back Rahiebb to win at 4/1. Have a look at Al Riffa e/w at 10/1.

 

Tix Pointers: Another Aidan/Gosden benefit. Probably keeping it simple here as plenty of problems to follow...

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4.50 THE BRITANNIA STAKES (CLASS 2) (Heritage Handicap)

Presented by Sam Darby

I shared the historic draw and pace data in yesterday’s Royal Hunt Cup preview, so if you want to reference that before having a bet, you’ll find it in the Day Two preview article here.

As I am writing this before Wednesday’s racing begins, I have less information than you’ll have by the time you read this. But on Tuesday it definitely looked as though high draws were advantageous on the straight course; it will be interesting to see if that changes on Wednesday.

The spread of the early pace could have an impact on any potential draw bias here, so the pace map should be insightful.



The pace is pretty evenly spread across the course - and there looks to be lots of it! Given the straight course tends to favour patient rides anyway, this really could be a race where you want to be held up out back and played late.

It goes without saying that any amount of these horses could be well ahead of their marks, such is the nature of these big field 3yo handicaps where pretty much every runner is lightly raced. This is more of a race to follow going forward, rather than to bet on, but that doesn’t mean we can’t back the winner as well!

There are two horses that I like in this one.

My more favoured pick would be Outback Heat, who was well backed following the final decs on Tuesday. He won a course and distance handicap on his most recent start, coming from last to first. Winning that race before landing the Britannia Stakes is a path this trainer took with Docklands back in 2023 and Harry Eustace also saddled the runner up in this race last year (La Botte).

After just three starts, Outback Heat is entitled to improve as much as anything in this field and he beat the subsequent Silver Bowl winner (who reopposes here on worse terms) in that race, alongside some other runners who have placed since in good races.

He’s drawn in 18, which might be a bit closer to the middle than ideal, but it does give him the obvious option of switching to the near side. My main question mark is Kaiya Fraser keeping the ride. He’s been on board for all three runs so far, so at least knows the horse well, but I’d have preferred one of the top jockeys.

The other one who catches my eye is Wechaad for Roger Varian. He’s a bit more exposed than some of these, with six runs under his belt, and whilst I’m on the negatives, maybe he wants a bit more cut in the ground.

He caught the eye on seasonal reappearance at Goodwood though, in a race that is often a good guide for this (2021 winner Perotto took the same route), where he not only did best of those held up but he did best of the high draws, too. Any draw/pace students out there will know how detrimental stall 15 is over 7f at Goodwood, so that effort can be massively marked up.

He’s drawn in stall 28, whereas many of the market fancies appear to be low drawn. If the higher drawn horses are at an advantage, like I think they could be, then there should be some really nice value to be had.

Suggestion: Try each way Outback Heat at 11/1, and Wechaad at 9/1.

 

Tix Pointers: One of the top four in the market has usually won this, but a couple of wacky placepot results involved the joint fifth and joint seventh in the markets being the highest betting rank placed horse. Spread out!

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5.35 THE HAMPTON COURT STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 3)

Presented by Gavin Priestley

A typical Hampton Court winner has:
 - yet to win at Group level (15 of the last 15 winners)
 - an official rating of 103+ (14/15)
 - raced 3-7 times in their career (14/15)
 - came from the top 4 in the betting (13/15)
 - returned less than 8/1 (14/15)
13 of the last 15 winners had won at least one of their last three starts and had finished top 6 in all of those three starts (14/15).
3 of the last 15 winners last raced at Epsom (from just 9 such runners).
In the last 15 years, all 22 runners that had their last start in a class 3-5 race, all 15 horses that last ran in the 2000 Guineas, all 12 horses that last ran in a Group 2 and all 6 horses that last ran on the all weather have been beaten.

Traditionally this is a race for those who missed the Derby due to stamina doubts or those that did run in the Derby but didn't stay. The trends are pretty strong and leave us looking at easy Listed winner Endorsement or Lingfield Derby Trial flop Maho Bay.

By Dubawi out of a Dandy Man mare, Maho Bay is probably not bred to stay, especially since everything in his pedigree ran (well) at up to a mile. He'd looked good when taking a Newmarket novice over ten furlongs in handsome style but stopped quickly over the Derby trip in the Lingfield trial. This step down will certainly suit but he needs to find more than his demonstrated level of form.

The form of Endorsement is rock solid having run a 1/2 length second to Derby winner Christmas Day and filling the same position by the same margin behind Derby third James J Braddock in two of the top Irish Derby Trials ealier in the Spring. He was last seen trouncing his field in a 12f Listed contest by over 7 lengths and is another favourite who has the level required to win this Group 3 with the only question to answer being whether he can perform just as well back over 10f.

Suggestion: Back Endorsement at 9/4

 

 

Tix Pointers: Every one of the last 13 winners started in the first four in the betting. Only one of the last eight winners also won last time out. So a fancied runner that perhaps doesn't look like one?

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6.10 THE BUCKINGHAM PALACE STAKES (CLASS 2) (Handicap)

Presented by Dave Renham

This race was taken off the calendar in 2015 but reinstated in 2020. Hence in terms of trends, I am looking at the last ten renewals, which cover 2011 to 2014 and 2020 to 2025.

Two wins for horses from the top four of the betting, with both being favourite (last two years). Five winners priced between 12/1 and 18/1; the other three were 25/1, 33/1 and 50/1.

4yos have won six of the last ten (60%) from 40% of the total runners. 4yos do have the best placed record (roughly double compared with the other age groups combined).

7yos and older have a poor record win 0 wins and just 5 places from 45 runners.

Seven of the last 10 winners were priced 15/2 or shorter on their most recent start. This equates to 70% of the winners from just 42% of the total runners.

 

Draw

The number of runners each year has fluctuated between 23 and 29 so for my draw analysis I am using the Nick Mordin technique of ‘reversing’ the draw because the very highest draws are berthed next to the stands’ rail.  Hence, I am looking at how far the stall position has been away from the stands’ rail to hopefully give the most accurate draw history.

Looking at the last ten renewals, I have collated Percentage of Rivals Beaten figures (PRBs) for different sections of the draw. I have looked at the PRBs for all runners and then focused on those 33/1 or shorter in price, ignoring the complete rags. For the record, non-runners have been taken into account, so the draw positions have been adjusted to allow for this. My findings are as follows:

 

 

As the numbers show horses drawn within ten stalls of the stands’ rail have had a significant edge in this race over the past ten years. Indeed, last year’s race saw a huge draw bias as the race result below shows:

 

 

Now, draw bias can come and go at the Royal meeting, but personally a middle to higher draw would be my preference in this race unless the ground came up soft.

 

Run Style

In terms of run style 29 of the 40 win/placed runners over the last ten renewals were held up or raced mid division. Hold up horses have the best record when we analyse the PRBs hitting 0.58. Generally, a horse coming off the pace would be preferred.

 

 

For a field this size there is a surprising lack of genuine front runners. River King looks the most likely from 14, but it will be interesting to see therefore how quickly they go early.

With a maximum field declared here are my thoughts on a few of them.

Defence Minister – has been unlucky with the draw several times in the past with a prime example being his most recent race, over course and distance. There he was drawn on the wrong side, finishing third of his group but 17th overall. The two runners in his group that finished in front of him both ran well next time so his run was far better than the finishing position suggested. However, based on recent renewals of this race, he could have been unlucky with the draw again as he has a low berth in 8.

Hickory – definitely has age against him in terms of past trends for this race, but with two wins and five placed runs at Ascot he clearly loves it here. Having said that he was disappointing over C&D first time up this season. Was not suited by the run of the race at Sandown last time as it was dominated by horses that were up with the pace that day. Will need a career best to win, but may be worth a look in markets offering lots of places. Has the right type of run style and he is drawn in the middle so has options.

Cosi Bello – Lightly raced four-year-old with just five career starts (three wins, one second, one fourth). Up 2lbs for his seasonal debut win at Haydock in May after which trainer Charlie Fellowes said, "the Buckingham Palace Stakes is the obvious target. I think we’ll go straight there and keep him fresh. The stiff seven will suit him perfectly." Tends to race from off the pace which should be a plus, and he is drawn in 26.

Great Acclaim – Has raced over course and distance three times including when second of 28 last time out. He has been raised two pounds for that effort but his mark of 100 looks fair. His other two runs over course and distance also saw good efforts with another big field second and a 4th of 15. He has a very consistent profile and if excluding his 2yo career he has won six and been placed seven times from 24 starts. Could be well drawn in 23.

The Wizard Of Eye – Beat Great Acclaim over course and distance last time which was his second track/trip success. Raised five pounds for that win and would need a career best at the age of seven to win this. Could be ideally drawn though in 29.

Dance In The Storm – Has had seven runs on the turf with two wins and two placed efforts. Won first time up this year at Chepstow before disappointing at Epsom on Oaks day when fifth of 16. Epsom might not have suited her and if we can forgive that run then she should be there or thereabouts. Looks the best of the very low drawn runners.

River King – Not been out of the first three in five turf starts and has a PRB of 0.91. Comfortable winner from the front at Newbury LTO over 1 mile and likely to press on early here dropped a furlong. It’s hard to win from the front at Ascot but has a clear form chance. Drawn 14.

 

Suggestion: The draw could play a big part here again, but we can never be 100 per cent sure how that will pan out. In such a big field I am happy to try three against the field. I’m taking 20/1 Great Acclaim and 8/1 Cosi Bello from the higher draws and from the lower draws I will take a bit of a flyer on 25/1 Defence Minister as I have always been a fan of negative draw bias.

 

And that's a wrap for Ladies' Day. It doesn't get any easier, does it? But it should be another cracking day of sport, and one good winner will apologise for many other wagering missteps.

Stay lucky!

Matt

 

 

 

Royal Ascot 2026: Day 2 Preview, Trends, Tips

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It's Day Two, Wednesday, at Royal Ascot and we have seven more top class races to watch / puzzles to solve. They are led off by the juvenile fillies but, before that, a couple of reminders...

Reminder 1: you can also check out our full Royal Ascot Wednesday trends page here

Reminder 2: we've got a free £50 Tix competition every day. Bet £5 or more into the placepot/jackpot pools via Tix and, if you played the highest ROI ticket on the day, you'll get an extra £50 - on top of the 5% bonus paid to ALL winning bets placed through Tix. Click here to take part

 

Our friends at the tote are refunding stakes (up to a tenner) if your pick runs second in any Royal Ascot race
(*opt in required and, as ever, check the terms, etc).

The going for day two of Royal Ascot, Wednesday 17th June, is: Good to Firm.

GoingStick at 8.30am:
Stands’ side: 8.9
Centre: 8.7
Far side: 8.5
Round: 7.6

Stalls:
Straight Course: centre
Round Course: inside 

Rail movements:
The rail on the Round Course will be positioned approximately 4yds out from approximately 9f out to the home straight. This will remain in place until after racing on Wednesday.

3.05pm +14 yards (approximately)
3.40pm +7 yards (approximately)
4.20pm +14 yards (approximately) 

Weather:
Dry overnight to Wednesday morning. It is forecast to be generally dry through the week, with an occasional shower possible on Friday. Max temp expected to be between 22 and 26 to Thursday when they could increase further.

 

 

2.30 THE QUEEN MARY STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 2)

Presented by Gavin Priestley

Trends

All of the last 11 UK and Irish trained winners had run in the last 50 days.
10 of the last 11 UK and Irish winners had won at least one of their last two races.
9 of the last 11 UK and Irish winners had won 50% of their races.
11 of the last 15 winners had their last run over 5f (or less).
14 of the last 18 winners were sent off 4/1 or shorter last time out.
8 of the last 11 UK and Irish winners won their last race.
7 of the last 11 UK and Irish winners had suffered at least one defeat.
11 of the last 15 winners had run once or twice in their career.
All 33 horses that last raced at Windsor have been beaten.
Since 2003, all 28 runners that last ran on the UK AW have been beaten.

Race Analysis

It's the race that Wesley Ward has had most success in (four wins) and it seems to have spurred a couple of his compatriots to join him on a trans-Atlantic mission this year. With a runner from France also set to line up it gives a truly international feel to the race.

We'll start by removing the maidens, those outside the top 3 last time, those which haven't won 50% of their career races and any that last ran on the all-weather. 11 of the last 12 winners have been drawn 10 or higher (6 of the last 11 were drawn 20+) with the US Speedball Campanelle the only one to recently defy a low draw when coming out of stall 1 in 2020.

If we apply these trends and look for those with a high draw we can reduce the field down to nine possibles.

Wesley Ward runs two with Ruiva subject of a few good reports and apparently his number one hope after trouncing her field over 4 1/2 furlongs at Churchill Downs. As is usual for the Ward juveniles she made all that day and I'm guessing we can expect similar tactics here from a favourable draw. She's yet to race on turf although Ward assures us she worked fantastic on the surface the other day. Only time will tell if she can handle the start, the surface and a jockey who has never raced outside of North America before.

That's too many maybe's for me and I'm happy to look elsewhere.

His other runner, Shining Moment, was equally impressive when also making all the running at Churchill Downs but she did it on the 5f turf track and that may be in her favour. The booking of jockey Oisin Murphy is eyecatching and I think she'll run a big race at a big price from an even more favourable draw (21).

But the Ward runner was really put in her place on debut by another American raider, MORE CHAMPAGNE, and has 6 1/2 lengths to find with that rival from their encounter on the turf at Keeneland back in April. Shining Moment pulled far too hard that day and set a ferocious pace up front making her a sitting duck as she swung into the straight. It was therefore no surprise to see her fold tamely in the last half furlong or so which allowed More Champagne, who had enjoyed the perfect run through the race, an easy victory as she came up alongside beautifully before quickening away to the line. The front two were miles clear of the rest of the field.

Coming out of stall 14 the Thomas Morley-trained filly should get another fast pace to aim at and, unlike the Ward filly, her jockey, John Velazquez, is no stranger to Ascot with four wins to his name at the Royal meeting. I think she's a cracking each way bet with five places on offer with most of the bookmakers.

 

Suggestion: More Champagne 1/2pt EW 14/1 (5 places)

 

 

Tix Pointers: In the past 11 years, there were four winning favourites and three second picks coming home in front. The jolly placed in two of the other four years, with another second choice making the frame in 2018... but in 2024 we got 22/1 (co 10th fav of 4), 50/1, 50/1. Incredibly, the placepot only paid £916.60 that day, the rest of the results being much more punter-friendly.

High drawn horses have an excellent record, especially on quicker ground.

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3.05 THE QUEEN'S VASE (CLASS 1) (Group 2)

Presented by Matt Bisogno

Formerly a two-miler the Queen's Vase was foreshortened to a mile and three-quarters in 2017, and at the same time was elevated to Group 2 status in recognition of the importance of the staying Pattern for the health of the breed. That decision was instantly vindicated as the first winner of the new version was the mighty Stradivarius, who would go on to carry all before him for the next six seasons.

If hoping for the emergence of another such luminary seems somewhat fantastical, it is a more realistic aspiration that the list of Group 1 winners - including Queen's Vase / St Leger doublers Kew Gardens and Eldar Eldarov - might be extended.

Favoured this time is the Andrew Balding-trained Galiyan, stepping out of maiden company after a solid staying effort at Chester's May meeting over a mile and a half. Three of the last five winners were unraced at two and twice raced at three, so there are precedents. That said, two of that trio won Listed contests on their previous start, and the third was sent off a more agreeable 15/2 when claiming his QV. Galiyan looks very short on what he's achieved to date - he must be really good at home.

There's a bit more form meat on the Limestone bone, Joseph O'Brien's New Bay colt having won the Listed Yeats Stakes last time. That was the same stepping stone deployed by connections of last year's winner, Carmers, which add further to this one's appeal. Limestone has a nice level of experience, which perhaps means he lacks the upside of some of his peers; nevertheless it was a significant step up in form when significantly stepped up in trip for the first time at Navan. He's yet to race on good or quicker.

Aidan rolls the stamina dice with Port Of Spain, a lesser Ballydoyle light heretofore, and beaten in a handicap last time out. In his defence, that handicap was the kingmaker London Gold Cup at Newbury, where he didn't get the smoothest of trips and was beaten four lengths. By St Mark's Basilica out of a Duke Of Marmalade mare, there's a murmur of robustness in the blood lines; mostly, though, this is a trust play: Aidan has a hundred - literally - colts to aim at this race, and Port Of Spain is the nomination. He's got it right six times in the last 13 years meaning a win this time would grant him 50% of the winners over 14 years. Still, I'm having to squint pretty hard, and away from the actual form book to make his case.

Asakir looked all over the winner of the Yeats Stakes before ceding to Limestone late on. Limestone had led the field for more than half the race before three horses went by him; then, in the final quarter mile, Asakir cruised to the front before getting chased down by the winner. The pair pulled eight clear of a fancied APO'B runner and the form looks good. In the back of my mind I'm wondering if a different ride on Asakir could reverse placings with Limestone - at the respective prices, I want to crystallise that image. He is another yet to race on a sound surface and is not necessarily bred for it; but I'm getting out of my lane with that sort of chat.

The stoutly bred Del Maro - by Camelot out of a Maxios mare who herself won the German Oaks - was born to be good. Unfortunately, the numbers on his form profile don't quite match that smart pedigree, yet. The extra three furlongs and a bigger field should place more emphasis on staying power, and that should elicit improvement notwithstanding this will be his eighth start compared with some having only their third. He is another who can conceivably go well.

There's a Royal runner in this field's midst, too. Point Of Law was a clearcut winner of a Newbury maiden last time despite looking very green on his second career start. Always handy, they quickened off a steady early tempo and I'd be inclined to mark up a couple of the beaten horses more than the winner. None of the four to race again from that day has won, the third and fourth both finding one too good since. The Gosden stable won this, as referenced, with Stradavarius in 2017 and also with Gregory in 2023. The latter's profile was not dissimilar though he'd already secured Listed honours by the time he arrived at Ascot.

Still they come. Unbeaten in two Ravenspire runs for the Executors of the Late Sheikh Mohamed Obaid and Karl Burke, and he's probably a tad over-priced for all that he's achieved very little in those two small fields novice scores. And Archie Watson's decent Royal Ascot record means Wareeth - two from three either side of a clunk in Listed company - cannot be wholly ignored. He's bred stoutly and could enjoy this half mile longer trek.

Suggestion: Lots of possibles, including Port Of Spain for which I'm hard pressed to make a case (which normally means I've missed something material). That Yeats Stakes form is probably above average and both the winner and second, Limestone and Asakir, have cases to be made assuming they handle the terra firmer. Of the rest, Galiyan is too short but has obvious potential; and Del Maro could make the frame.

Try 7/2 Limestone for the win, and/or 9/1 Asakir or 14/1 Del Maro each way.

 

Tix Pointers: Consistently one of the more predictable races at the meeting, with five winning favourites joined by the same number of second favourites prevailing, and a brace of third choices since 2013. Indeed, the longest priced winner bar one was 15/2 (beat the favourite). When Aidan shocked us with 33/1 Sword Fighter in 2016, the 8/1 fourth favourite hit the frame, too.

As well as Aidan (obvs), look out for Charlie A and Andrew B, both of whom have saddled more than a third of their runners into the frame.

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3.40 THE DUKE OF CAMBRIDGE STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 2)

Presented by David Massey

A bigger field than is normally the case for the Duke Of Cambridge this year, although we did have fourteen runners a couple of years ago. Which was nice.

John & Thady Gosden have won this three times in the last five years so it makes some sense to start with Friendly Soul. Yes, the Mare That Closed Haydock DownTM, or something, thankfully returns here in one piece, and for all her quirks she looked in good form at Haydock before the incident, bowling along happily on the front and yet to be asked to go about her business when the hole appeared, and she was quickly pulled up. Essentially, take Haydock and the Musidora run - when she hung her chance away - out of the equation and you’ve got a very talented mare with some top-class efforts to her name. And that includes a defeat of Kalpana in the Pretty Polly back in the day, lest we forget. Nicely drawn in stall 5, she’ll have the hard-pulling Falakeyah to take her into the race and she looks the one to beat, assuming all is well after that last day mishap.

Blue Bolt has been made early favourite for this. Her best piece of form to date came when second in the Sun Chariot last year, that run capping off a season where she did nothing but improve and gave the impression she’d be even better at four. She didn’t need to be at her best to win the Listed Conqueror Fillies Stakes on her reappearance and she won with plenty in hand, backed off the boards to do so (Kon Tiki, She’s Perfect and Arisaig in behind). She’s clearly smart and, for all she’s bred to get a bit further than a mile, she isn’t short of speed; she is just about the right favourite if short enough on balance, though.

Hold-up performers have had their share of success in this in recent times (think Crimson Advocate last year, Rogue Millenium in 2023 and Indie Angel in 2021) and if they do go a step too quickly then the strong-travelling Catalina Delcarpio looks the one to be with. Her only disappointment (I say disappointing, it really wasn’t a bad effort) came in the Ribblesdale last year when she appeared not to quite see out the twelve furlongs. I think it was that, rather than the firm ground, that caused the defeat, but in any case she looked a much-improved filly when winning the Listed Amethyst Stakes at Leopardstown last month. Responding well to pressure, she took it up with half a furlong to run, and was strong at the finish. There was a lot to like about the way she went about things there, and as long as Billy Lee finds room on her - a low draw could make things a little tricky in that regard - I think she looks the main danger to Friendly Soul.

I do like to try and make a case for an outsider, as you know, but I have to be honest with you here and say that’s proving something of a struggle. I don’t suppose it’s impossible to see Arisaig dropped out the back and Jamie Spencer trying to bring her with a late run but stall 1 is going to make that difficult, a lot of luck will be required. I have a soft spot for Dash Of Azure though, and she did run well enough in the Sandringham last year (a closing fifth at the line) to suggest a mile is within her compass, for all she’s generally been kept to seven furlongs. Stall 13 and Rossa Ryan both look positives, and maybe if there’s an each-way swing with the extra places to be had, it’s her. Watch for her late on the scene.

Selection: Dutch 9/2 Friendly Soul and 8/1 Catalina Delcarpio, or take a wild swing at 66/1 Dash Of Azure

 

Tix Pointers: John & Thady Gosden three times, and Sr. once in his sole name, have four of the most recent six renewals.

Although four-year-olds have won 12 of the past 13, five-year-olds actually have a superior place strike rate (36% vs 24%) and PRB (0.54 vs 0.5). To wit, aside from a year when the two 5yos were 33/1 and a year when there were none of that age, there's only been a single year when a mare of that age has missed the frame - of course, it was last year. The vast majority of runners are younger, but don't dismiss the fives.

Four jollies got it done since 2013, but only one since 2017. However, the first or second market choice has made the frame every year in that time.

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4.20 THE PRINCE OF WALES'S STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 1)

Presented by Rory Delargy

In terms of pure class, the Prince of Wales’s Stakes is one of the highlights of the Royal Meeting and class tends to come to the fore, with only two winners at double-digit odds since Lear Spear sprung a 20/1 surprise in 1999. Six winning favourites in the last 20 runnings isn’t far behind market expectations, but there is clearly no edge in either backing or laying market leaders blindly.

Ombudsman won this last year having suffered defeat in the Brigadier Gerard Stakes (to the reopposing Almaqam, albeit conceding that rival 3lb), and he arrives here having won that prep this time around, and that despite suffering a setback since scoring in the Dubai Turf at Meydan in March. He is at his best on good or quicker ground, so conditions are again in his favour and he has strong form claims on balance.

The problem that Ombudsman faces here is that he has yet to meet a contender of the calibre of Daryz, winner of last year’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. Well, that isn’t strictly true, as the unfancied Daryz was well behind Ombudsman in the International Stakes at York last summer, with Francis-Henri Graffard’s charge seeming to find the step up to Group 1 company too much after wins in four lesser races since making a belated debut in April last year.

If that defeat seemed to burst Daryz’s bubble in the minds of some pundits, they might have been nodding to themselves when he was beaten again by Croix du Nord in the Group 3 Prix du Prince d’Orange at Longchamp in September; but others sat up and took notice, seeing an improved effort even in defeat and noting that the fast-finishing Daryz would have won in a couple more strides and would have learned plenty from the experience. His supporters had plenty to cheer about when a more battle-hardened Daryz showed up for the Arc and turned the tables in no uncertain terms to prove himself to be a genuine superstar, catching Minnie Hauk with a strong late run and pulling 5½ lengths clear of the field as the pair battled it out.

That was a big improvement from Daryz, and one which could have been put down to the emphasis on stamina given it was his first try at 1½m, so it’s been noteworthy that he has been imperious in two Group 1 wins this season while stepping back in trip, winning the Prix Ganay (1m2½f) by 3½ lengths before scoring by the same margin in the Prix Aga Khan IV (formerly Prix d’Ispahan) when dropped to an extended 1m1f. I was with him in the Arc on the basis that he would be suited by the trip, but I must say he has taken a big leap forward in my estimation, looking to have the measure of his rivals in the Ganay and the Ispahan before unleashing a devastating late kick.

He’s neither a one-dimensional stayer nor a mudlark – Timeform have the going as good for his Ganay win and only a little slower for the Ispahan, and his wins this season have set a remarkable precedent. In the last century, no three-year-old has won the Arc and then gone on to do the Ganay/Ispahan double despite the prestige of those races, and that’s largely because most Arc winners tend to get a little slower with age, or at least better suited to 1½m than shorter; but Daryz is that absolute rarity – a top class middle-distance performer who is getting quicker with age.

*For the record, the Arc/Ganay/Ispahan treble had only previously been completed by two outstanding horses: Sagace (who won the Arc as a four-year-old and took the other pair of races the following season) and Allez France (second in the Arc at three before landing the Ganay/Ispahan/Arc treble the following season).

The prospect of “firm” in the going description is the one unknown for Daryz, but while it’s easy to suggest he’s best on ground softer than good, that is partly down to the fact that French going descriptions almost always err on the soft side. It’s very possible that he might prove even better on quick ground – that is certainly the case for stablemate Calandagan despite that horse’s early wins coming on softer, while Daryz’s most talented half-brother, Dariyan, won the Prix Ganay on ground that Timeform described as good-to-firm. Their dam, Daryakana, also gained her biggest success when beating Spanish Moon on a sound surface in the Group 1 Hong Kong Vase, so I think ground concerns could well be wide of the mark.

Suggestion: Back Daryz at 2/1

 

Tix Pointers: It's been very close between the four- and five-year-olds since 2013, younger leading 7-6 in wins and 22-9 in win/places... but the junior cohort was much more strongly represented. Looking instead at percentages, which we must, fives beat fours 20.7% to 13.5% on the win angle; but fours beat fives 42% to 31% on win/place, and 56% to 53% on PRB.

Six-year-olds and up were 0 from 18, two places, and a lamentable 11% PRB.

One of the top pair in the market has made the frame every year since 2003.

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5.00 THE ROYAL HUNT CUP (CLASS 2) (Heritage Handicap)

Presented by Sam Darby

It feels like it’s always said you want a high drawn hold up horse for races like this, but is that backed up by historical data?



There is no clear advantage from the above, so we need to dig a bit deeper.

 



This is a bit more insightful.

The top seven stalls, based on PRB3, are all 17 or higher, with four of those being no lower than 24.

Looking solely at the last ten renewals of this race, five were won by stall 21 or higher, but three have been won by 7 or lower. This doesn’t necessarily prove that no draw bias exists, but it does suggest that the draw bias can change from year to year.

The strange thing about the Ascot straight course is that you can be sure a certain side is favoured, and then in the next race, or on the next day, the complete opposite appears to be the case.

Last year is a good example of this. In the 2025 Royal Hunt Cup, the 1st and 4th were drawn 32 and 30 respectively, whilst the 2nd, 3rd and 5th were drawn in the three lowest stalls. Then in the Buckingham Palace Stakes (7f) the next day, the first six home were all drawn 25 or higher. So on the Wednesday extreme draws were favoured (either side) and on Thursday you absolutely had to be on the stands’ side rail.

You can go poor very quickly trying to focus on the draw too much in straight course races here, but a very high draw is rarely a big negative.

As for pace, the above image shows that wherever you are drawn, being delivered late is a pretty hefty advantage.



It’s always important to analyse the pace map, too. It’s very interesting that many of the early pace angles here seem to be clustered around the middle, with Linwood (16) the most likely front runner and One Smack Mack (13) and Archivist (18) other possibilities. This further muddies the draw waters, as the pace setters might come up the middle, or they could go either side from those draws.

From the lower draws, I think the market is correct in making La Botte and Indalo the two most interesting contenders. The former was runner up in last year’s Britannia off just a few pounds lower and since a poor run in the Lincoln, it looks to me as though connections have been looking after his mark for this.

As for Indalo, he’s been amazingly consistent and has proven himself in some of the biggest cavalry charges, so his credentials are pretty solid.

With the pace setup as it is, I can’t rule out the middle draws, and the one I’d be interested in is Irish challenger Jagged Edge. He’s won his last three starts at this trip, was hugely impressive when winning last time out and he’s another with a favourable run style.

From the high draws I really like the look of Blue Brother, but as first reserve he needs one to come out so he can get a run. He was a massive eye-catcher in this race twelve months ago, when getting no run throughout, and having not run since he’s back off the same mark.

Rogue Diplomat is one of only two horses drawn higher than Blue Brother and he’s assured of a run. He ran very well against a draw and pace bias in the Spring Cup at Newbury and can probably be forgiven a lesser effort since in France. I do think he might want a bit more juice in the ground, but I’ve seen plenty of horses that enjoy cut run well on fast ground on this straight course.

So that’s five horses on my shortlist, which is too many to back.

Suggestion
I definitely want to have JAGGED EDGE (16/1) on my side. He’s gone up 9lbs for his latest win, but I don’t see many ‘potential group horses in a handicap’ in the field, and he definitely looks like he could be one. Stalls 15 and 11 have won this in the past six years so he has a massive chance as long as it’s not like last year’s race where you have to be very high or very low. I hope the positioning of the early pace stops that from happening.

If BLUE BROTHER (12/1) gets a run, he’s the other one I want to back, but assuming he doesn’t get in I’d take a chance on ROGUE DIPLOMAT at the prices (20/1) as my second bet. The handicapper has struggled to get a hold of him as he often only just does enough, and his Spring Cup run, which has worked out well, was eye-catching enough. The ground wasn’t exactly slow that day either.

Any of these could turn out to be badly drawn once the race is run, so I’d be keeping stakes win only, despite bookies paying plenty of places. With that in mind, I’m sure you’ll get even better prices on the day on the Exchanges.

I’ll have to leave the low draws. If it’s evident the far side is favoured before this race is run, you’d hope Jagged Edge could tack over from 15 to give us a chance.

 

Tix Pointers: It usually pays to focus away from the top of the weights and on more lightly raced four-year-olds, ideally held up for a late run. It is a very, very tricky race though, where spreading out seems the only way to go.

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5.35 THE KENSINGTON PALACE STAKES (CLASS 2) (Fillies' Handicap)

Presented by Dave Renham

The Kensington Palace is a 1-mile handicap open to four-year-olds and upwards for fillies and mares only. It is a relatively new race for the meeting, inaugurated in 2021. In terms of trends, then, with only five renewals there aren’t really enough races to have built up firm patterns; and for the first three years the contest was run on the round course, with only the last two on the straight course. The two straight course races have both shown a high to middle draw bias so it will be interesting to see what happens today. One trainer has done well from a small sample, that being Ralph Beckett. He has saddled four runners from which he had one winner and two others placed.

The pace map for the race looks like this:

 

 

Here are some of the main contenders:

Radiant Beauty – four wins out of her last seven runs including a very decent win over course and distance last time on 9th May. Won that from the front and generally runs close to or up with the pace. Has gone up 6lb for that run but her revised mark does not look insurmountable. Drawn 14.

Alobayyah – trained by William Haggas and was an impressive winner on debut on soft ground at Yarmouth in the Autumn of 2024. Her 3yo year was disappointing but she was a real eyecatcher last time when third over course and distance to Radiant Beauty, finishing very strongly after being given too much to do. If she comes on for that run, she will be a big player. Drawn 16.

Stateira – a four-time winner from ten starts with three wins from her last five. Stateira is the highest rated runner in the race having been raised 27lbs since November, and it could be tough carrying that much weight. Drawn 13.

Zgharta – was disappointing at Ascot last time in the race already mentioned won by Radiant Beauty. She was well beaten in sixth that day despite being favourite but looks feasibly weighted if she can put that run behind her. It's interesting that Oisin Murphy remains on board given another runner from the Balding yard he would be eligible to ride. Draw 6 is possibly not ideal.

All Moonshine – yet to race on the turf but has been super impressive on the all weather. Third on debut and three wins on the bounce since. It is difficult to predict how she will perform on the turf for the first time especially having not been seen since February, but Andrew Balding is respected and is one to consider. Jason Watson rides after Oisin opted for Zgharta. Drawn 12.

Song N Dance – yet another horse from the Ascot race won by Radiant Beauty, Song N Dance finishing second. Ridden by the excellent Saffie Osborne and could have a good draw in 19. Looks slightly better value than some of the other horses that contested that Ascot race.

 

Suggestion: Most of the horses at or near the head of the betting are drawn in the middle (stalls 12 to 16). In races like this I tend to split stakes and at least back two, sometimes three if bigger prices. However, I am drawn here to the top section of the market and therefore I am sticking with one and that is 11/1 Song N Dance.  She looks a bigger price than she should be. Back each way with as many places as you can get.

 

Tix Pointers: Only two of the 23 mares aged 5+ have placed; the other 18 places in this race's five year history were taken by four-year-olds (a cohort which dominate entries annually).

The shortest priced winner was 10/1 (5th favourite) and no placed horse has returned shorter than 13/2 so it's tricky again. Keep some powder dry for these last two legs!

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6.10 THE WINDSOR CASTLE STAKES (CLASS 1) (Listed Race)

Presented by Matt Bisogno

Much to the frustration of some - notably 2021 and 2025 winning trainer Eve Johnson Houghton, though she was far from alone - the Windsor Castle has seen its distance increase from five to six furlongs but, more materially, with a condition that eligibility is only to those whose sire won over seven furlongs-plus as a juvenile or a mile and up at three. None of those flashy pure speed types here, then...

A look at the represented stallions make for odd reading, to be sure. In place of Ardad and Blue Point are the likes of Dubawi, Wootton Bassett and, slightly hilariously, Cracksman. The one sire amongst the entries that makes most sense on traditional readings of such things is Kodi Bear, a getter of legion swift juvies. Unhelpfully, though not unsurprisingly, he is responsible for more runners - four - than any other stallion in the lineup.

Let's kick off with the massive-priced Troublesome Guest, then. A daughter of Kodi, obvs, she made a lovely debut in a valuable novice event at Newmarket a month ago. Drawn very high, as with very low presumed a help, she'd be a dream result for two of the wiliest old hands in town, Messrs Margarson and Egan Sr. I hope she runs very well for them - and can actually see her outperforming her price, too.

Staying high, the Territories colt Ruler's Control moves from a win over five on heavy to six on good to firm. The way he travelled through the race gives hope that he'll have no bother in this melting pot setup and he's another Joseph runner with prospects.

On the other side of the track, favourite Sergei Diaghilev has box two. Trained by Aidan O'Brien - four from 11 with 6f 2yos, two more placed, in the past four Royal Ascots - and ridden by Ryan Moore, the pair have form in that context of 41120119. A son of Wootton Bassett out of a Galileo mare he is a Coolmore archetype, and he justified odds of 4/6 when taking a six furlong Curragh maiden (good) three and a half weeks ago. Assuming low is a fair place to be, he looks certain to go well.

Down the middle - ish - is Controlla, a daughter of Night Of Thunder who started out in stakes company, narrowly failing to reel in the leader in a Naas Group 3. She was a 25/1 chance that day and has demonstrable class as well as the sort of speed and stamina combination needed to get competitively to the line in a race like this. Like Troublesome Guest, she gets a five pound concession from the colts.

Middleham Park Racing have been at it a while now and they know very well what they're about. Two runners here, with two of the foremost trainers of juveniles - including at the Royal meeting - in Archie Watson and Clive Cox. Archie sends Alpe d'Huez, for whom it was all downhill (geddit?) in the Woodcote at Epsom last time. This son of Kodi Bear was staying on at the finish at the Derby meeting and ought to appreciate this stiffer test.

I think Clive Cox could be the best trainer of juvenile sprinters in Britain and we get to test that theory with Boleto, another Wootton Bassett, who did plenty wrong on debut at Pontefract a fortnight ago but still got up under a cute Callum Rodriguez ride. This lad needs to step forward a bundle and probably doesn't have a brilliant draw either, but in Clive and CalRod we can trust.

Lots of others with some sort of a chance that I find it very hard to quantify.

Selection: I'm mainly staying close to the top of the market here. Huge respect for Sergei Diaghalev who may just win, but 5/2 or so in a field of 25 feels wrong. It may not be, of course! Controlla looks a pretty fair each way alternative at 4/1. She brings the best form, though has nothing with which to back it up, and she could be smart. Interesting that connections opted for the newly extended Norfolk against the boys rather than the fillies only Albany at the same trip. In the long grass - the very long grass - are 20/1 Boleto and 66/1 Troublesome Guest, both of which are wildly speculative and should be staked commensurately!

 

That's Day 2, then. Mostly really tricky, on paper at least. Best of luck wth your Wednesday wagers and we'll be back for Ladies' Day tomorrow.

- Matt

Royal Ascot 2026: Day One Preview, Tips

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Royal Ascot 2026: Day One Preview, Trends, Tips

For most flat enthusiasts, it's the best week of the racing calendar as five days of elite action unfold in the presence of royalty at the 2026 Royal Ascot festival.

There are plenty of domestic runners from the pointiest part of the ability pyramid, alongside a select smattering of international players and a veritable glut of young, unexposed could-be-anythings. Yes, it will be an exciting sensory overload and punting will not generally be straightforward; but winners, where they're found, are likely to reward well. So let's see if we can't shine a light on two or three.

I have enlisted some expert support in previewing the racing from Dave Renham, David Massey, Rory Delargy, Gavin Priestley and Sam Darby, all familiar names to long-term readers of the blog and, crucially, all great judges with their own approaches to solving the puzzle. To round out each day's septet of previews, and as editor across all content, you're lumbered with me, I'm afraid.

To Tuesday, Day 1 of Royal Ascot, then, a perennial feast of Group 1 action, kicking off as tradition dictates with the Queen Anne Stakes, a straight mile G1 race for older horses.

 

Side note 1: you can also check out our full Royal Ascot Tuesday trends page here.

Side note 2: we've got a free £50 Tix competition every day. Bet £5 or more into the placepot/jackpot pools via Tix and, if you played the highest ROI ticket on the day, you'll get an extra £50 - on top of the 5% bonus paid to ALL winning bets placed through Tix. Click here to take part

 

Our friends at the tote are refunding stakes (up to a tenner) if your pick runs second in any Royal Ascot race
(*opt in required and, as ever, check the terms, etc).

 

 

Royal Ascot Day 1 Going/Weather News

The going for day one of Royal Ascot, Tuesday 16th June, is: Good to Firm. 

GoingStick at 8.30am:

Stands’ side: 8.6

Centre: 8.6

Far side: 8.3

Round: 7.6

Stalls:
Straight Course: centre
Round Course: inside 

Rail movements:
The rail on the Round Course will be positioned approximately 4yds out from approximately 9f out to the home straight. This will remain in place until after racing on Wednesday.

4.20pm +7 yards (approximately)
5.00pm +14 yards (approximately)
5.35pm +14 yards (approximately)
6.10pm +14 yards (approximately) 

Weather:
Dry overnight to Tuesday morning. 0.4mm rain on Monday. 5mm rain recorded through the past 7 days to Tuesday. Dry, warm day is forecast. It is forecast to be generally dry through the week, with an occasional light shower possible on Wednesday and Friday. Max temp expected to be between 22 and 26 to Thursday when they could increase further.

 

2.30 THE QUEEN ANNE STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 1)

Presented by Dave Renham

A few race trends for the last 15 years of this four-year-olds and upwards mile Group 1 contest:

Age

4yos recorded 11 wins from 83 runners (13.3%); 31% placed.

5yo have had 3 wins from 58 runners (5.2%); 22% placed.

6yo and up had just 1 win from 36 runners (2.8%); 11% placed.

4yos have provided the most runners albeit from the biggest sample. However, their win strike rate is comfortably the best and their placed performance has also been best.

Market factors

8 wins for favourites, four of which started odds on

Horses priced 11/8 or shorter have won 7 races from just 9 qualifiers. To BSP backing all such runners would have yielded a 40p in the £ profit.

However, since 2018 there have been four big-priced winners – two at 33/1 and two at 14/1.

Course form

Course winners secured 10 wins from 58 runners (17.2%) with 36% placed.

Those without a course win had 5 wins from 119 runners (4.2%) with 18% placed.

A win at the course has definitely been a strong positive over the past 15 years.

Course LTO

9 winners ran LTO at Newbury from 68 runners (13.2%) with almost all of them (65) having raced in the Lockinge. Hence, the Lockinge has been by far the best trial for this contest in recent years, and backing ALL runners blind who ran in the Lockinge LTO would have produced returns just under 50 pence in the £.

Race Class LTO

12 of the last 15 winners raced in a Group 1 race LTO. LTO Group 1 runners have provided roughly 55% of the total runners in the race and 80% of the winners.

Career win percentage

British or Irish runners with career win percentage of 60% or more provided 7 winners from just 22 runners.

 

Queen Anne Stakes Pace Map

 

Before we look at some of the leading players, we can see there is not much pace on here, with only one of the nine horses, OperaBallo, having led in one of his last four starts, and he did that just once. Hence, this could be run at a false pace, which often complicates matters somewhat.

 

This year’s contenders

Notable Speech – fourth in the race last year where things didn’t go to plan. He pulled hard that day, was short of room at the 2-furlong pole, then lost ground going sharply right before the jockey dropped his whip. He was beaten just over two lengths. A year later he comes here as favourite having been in very good form recently, winning three of out his last four races, including the Breeders’ Cup Mile and the Lockinge. He is trained by Charlie Appleby and clearly has a strong chance. The slight concern is that he has not been seen at his best at this venue.

Docklands – did this column a huge favour last year having been tipped up each way at 25/1 in the morning. He loves Ascot's straight mile with his record reading three wins, three seconds, a third, and a close-up fourth of 16. Despite now being six, he looks as good as ever based on his two runs this year – a Listed win at Doncaster in March and then an excellent third at Sha Tin in the Group 1 FWD Champion’s mile in April. The only slight negative is that he has a few pounds to find with Notable Speech on Official Ratings. The lack of pace in the race shouldn’t be a problem as last year they went off quite slow and that did not inconvenience him.

Opera Ballo – the second string from the Appleby yard but a leading contender. A regular winner having taken seven of his nine career starts. He won the Bet365 mile at Sandown last time and is joint highest rated in the field with Notable Speech on 125.

More Thunder – This time last year he was running in the Wokingham handicap at the Royal meeting but has since progressed to Group 1 level, finishing second last time to Notable Speech in the Lockinge. He struggled to lay up with the pace early then and gave himself too much to do; if he can sit more handily this time his chance increases, which if the pace map is anything to go by he should be able to do. Further, that was his first run of the season so we can expect him to come on for that.

 

Suggestion: Notable Speech looks the one based on recent form, but at the prices I’m happy to split a point between two against him with More Thunder and Docklands.

 

Tix Pointers: The favourite has placed in seven of the last 10 years.

However, in 2018 (15 ran) the result was 33/1, 10/1 (4th fav), 20/1; and in 2019 (16 ran) we had 14/1 (co 6th fav of 3), 20/1, 20/1.

Four- and five-year-olds have won 12 of the last 13 renewals.

Older horses are 1 from 32 with a PRB of only 37% during that time. Four-year-olds have by far the best record.

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3.05 THE COVENTRY STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 2)

Presented by Gavin Priestley

Trends

17 of the last 18 winners had won their last start.
17 of the last 18 winners had won a race at Class 4 or higher.
All of the last 18 winners had their previous run in a Class 4 race or higher race.
15 of the last 18 winners were unbeaten over 6f.
16 of the last 18 winners were 1st or 2nd favourite on their last run.
16 of the last 18 winners had run 1 or 2 times.
14 of the last 18 winners were unbeaten coming into the race.
13 of the last 15 British trained winners had their previous run over 6f. 

 

Race Analysis

If we look for one or two runs and a win last time out we can reduce the field by half and then by removing those that weren't well fancied in the betting last time we can lose a couple more. That gives us a nice shortlist to look through.

Archie Watson won the Coventry in 2022 and on the whole his runners have run well in this race (although all three of his runners last year were unplaced - best performance was 6th at 100/1). If we simply concentrate on his runners that had had just one run, over 6f on the turf which they had won, we see that these types have finished 31220. That's a winner at 8/1 and places at 40/1, 20/1 and 6/1.

Following the same trainer didn't work out for us last year but I'm going to give him another try as his sole entry SIOUXPERB looked very promising when skating home on his debut by four lengths at Yarmouth as the well fancied 4/6 favourite. The Yarmouth race was run on similar ground to what he'll encounter here and the form has been advertised since with the second home, who was a further three lengths clear of the rest of the field, going on to win his next two starts. Those two wins included a decent looking class 2 Novice event at Newmarket last time out which he won by more than three lengths under a 6lb penalty.

His form looks sound and if able to post a similar performance it should give him excellent each way chances.

 

Suggestion: SIOUXPERB 1pt EW 14/1 (4 places)

 

 

Tix Pointers: Aidan O'Brien has won with four of the five winning favourites in the past decade.

During that period, the fav placed only five times with two second favs hitting the board in the other five.

Of the remaining trio of Coventry's, it's been a random number generator of a podium: 2017 saw 11/1, 33/1, 8/1 (jt 3rd fav); in 2021, it was 11/1 (jt 6th fav), 66/1, 25/1; and in 2024 the impossible 80/1, 40/1 (jt 15th fav!), 66/1.

It might be worth playing a few tickets with the some wildness here.

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3.40 THE KING CHARLES III STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 1)

Presented by Rory Delargy

A huge field means the draw will surely influence the result and that’s much the same as last year when stalls 14-17 filled the first four spots in a 20-runner affair (three of the last four spots went to stalls 19-21, for balance, so it’s not simply a case of higher is better, but that smart horses drawn together can help each other in straight-track races).

Last year’s winner American Affair is a great starting point as he was drawn 16 last year and now has an eye-catching berth in stall 18, with speedsters Big Mojo and favourite Overpass on either side. In terms of overall pace, the presence in high stalls of speedy sorts Jakajaro and Mission Central helps fill out the pace profile of the high-drawn group, and it will be a surprise if that speed does not hold up throughout the race.

Not only does American Affair find himself drawn where the best of the pace is in the King Charles III, but we already know he’s best when asked to come late off such a strong pace, so having genuine contenders to set the race up for him means he can have no excuse. He will, in truth, need to be at least as good as he was last year to prevail, and he’s easily forgiven a rare below-par run in the Minster Stakes at York. Jim Goldie has long been a master at getting his sprinters to retain their form well beyond the first flush of youth.

In terms of dangers, there are several obvious ones, with Big Mojo and Overpass unlikely to roll over even if getting involved in a strong gallop. The latter has done much of his running in Australia over 6f, giving the impression that a stiff five might be his perfect scenario at a track like Ascot. His presence on the stands flank counts against those early pacers around him who need to dominate, but if they go very hard then there are some among the lower stalls who will be finishing strongly.

My pick of that half of the field is last year’s Commonwealth Cup heroine Time For Sandals, who will relish a strongly run five here and will be doing good late work. She’s another who can be forgiven her modest run in the Minster Stakes, with 6f on softish ground blunting her speed, especially when short of peak fitness. She appeals as the value danger, and indeed for exotics, while outsider Behike is another for that list having made a big impression at Lingfield. He is very much in the “could be anything” category, and is sure to do better still, for all Newmarket or Goodwood later in the summer may be more appropriate.

Suggestion: 1pt e/w American Affair @ 8/1 (Coral – 5 places; 7/1 & 15/2 general)

 

Tix Pointers: Only Battaash upheld the honour of market leaders since 2013.

In spite of that, the fav and/or second fav has hit the frame in nine of the last ten years; last year, however, it was 11/1, 28/1, 9/1 (3rd fav).

Five-year-olds and up have a very good record in the race (note the PRB stats).

 

 

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4.20 THE ST JAMES'S PALACE STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 1)

Presented by Matt Bisogno

Never mind the width, feel the quality... a short field of six for this year's St James's Palace Stakes, the usual rendez-vous point of European Guineas winners. The winners of the English and Irish 2000 Guineas are in attendance, so too the beaten favourite in the French version, but the Poulains victor is a late absentee having caught a cold (or some such) at the weekend. Pity.

No matter, though, because in Bow Echo and Gstaad we have a proper match, with a couple of spicy curve balls in play to boot.

Both the aforementioned graced Newmarket's 2000 Guineas in early May, Bow Echo charging clear of Gstaad by most of three lengths - fully eight lengths back to the third - to stretch his unbeaten run to four in the manner of a generational talent. If that sounds hyperbolic, it might yet be; but the ratings guys fell of their perches with excitement at what they witnessed. Timeform went 131, Racing Post Ratings plumped for 127 and the BHA, racing's official scorer, went 126. These were the best, or joint best, ratings since Frankel's electric performance in the race in 2011.

Gstaad, for his part, franked the form emphatically when coming three lengths clear in the Irish 2000 Guineas three weeks later.

If there is a problem, and there may not be, it's that the depth of both races is highly questionable. Prior the Newmarket race, pundits and ratings outlets alike were decrying the absence of star quality; and when Gstaad lined at the Curragh he was 4/11 favourite, with the only credible rival on market telling (Distant Storm, the distant third horse from Newmarket) running up, against at a respectful distance. The fifth, seventh and ninth from Newmarket have been well beaten since, though the 11th placed horse did win next time out... in a Class 4 handicap at Kempton.

If the form has the substance the ratings lads say it does, Bow Echo ought to win on all known evidence. But if it's been overrated by flattering defeats of sub-standard horses then the door is just ever so slightly ajar for a runner with a different profile. The obvious one on that score is Puerto Rico, whose juvenile level was solid and who disappointed connections in Paris in their Guineas. Still, he did finish fourth that day shaping as though he'd come on for the run: he was handy enough but just got outpaced before staying on at the one pace. The quick ground is an unknown but he was a dual Group 1 winners as a two-year-old (both in France, both very soft going).

Less exposed but more left field and with more to find is Talk Of New York, a four-time raced triple winner. Having started with a five length romp at Kempton he fell slightly short when taking on the Jumeirah 2000 Guineas in Meydan in late February. After that came a three-length score at Newmarket in conditions company before an impressive five length rout in the Heron Stakes, Listed, at Sandown nigh on three weeks ago. That was a progressive effort and, like the favourite, he's got more scope than the rest to again step forward; but perhaps that's fully reflected in current quotes of 9/2.

As a 2yo G1 winner Power Blue deserves a mention. He could be ridden from the front in a race where, unless Puerto Rico is sent on for Ballydoyle, there would be no obvious pace contention; and, with that sprint speed in his corner, he might offer a run for tiny stakes on this turning track - but it's still a very long climb to the line when the fuel gauge is in the red zone.

It'll be a nice day out for the new training partnership of Ismail Mohammed and Jose Santos with their lad, Lord Britain.

Suggestion: I think it's very likely that Bow Echo reasserts his class, but if there's a bet it might be a small 'without the favourite' stab at Puerto Rico whose juvenile form was close to Gstaad's and better than Bow Echo's.

Try Puerto Rico without the favourite for pennies, or perhaps a Bow Echo/Puerto Rico forecast (pays 10.8 with bet365 as I write).

 

Tix Pointers: Ten of the last 13 winners returned first or second favourite. Of the remaining three, two were third choice, and the jolly was placed behind 10/1 Circus Maximus in 2019.

Potential banker race?

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5.00 THE ASCOT STAKES (CLASS 2) (Heritage Handicap) (GBBPLUS RACE)

Presented by Sam Darby

I do love these extreme distance handicaps, even if they are arguably just as unpredictable as races over the minimum trip.

Before I get stuck into the form, we need to have a look at possible draw and pace angles. At the very least they should tell us which horses are most/least likely to be favoured, even if the data can’t be used to completely rule anything out.


The quick takeaway from the above is that early leaders tend to not do brilliantly (judging by the PRB of 0.36) whilst there isn’t much between the other run styles.

As for this particular race, it looks unlikely to be a gruelling contest with very little early pace on offer. Ismahane is pretty much the only front runner or prominent racer in the field, so I can see this being steadily run and tactical.

That’s not only bad news for those likely to be dropped out early on (and there are a few of those), but I can also see this being an extremely rough race turning for home. A steady pace means a very well grouped field and there are sure to be plenty of hard luck stories, especially with those that get locked in on the rail.

That brings me on to the draw data here.

 


 

These races are rare, so there isn’t a massive sample size, but the data point towards higher draws being slightly disadvantaged - not a great shock over such a distance on a round course.

Perhaps the most telling insight comes from the draw and pace combination data. Again, it's not a huge sample size but it looks as though non extreme rides are great for low drawn runners and patient rides are best for those drawn middle to high.

Given the likely pace set up for this race, I’m not massively keen on those likely to be held up so a low draw and prominent ride might be the recipe for success.

As for the form book, in a ‘fair’ race the two I’d be most interested in would be Reaching High and Beylerbeyi.

Reaching High was well backed for this last year but he never got any sort of run at any stage and he was one of the most unlucky horses at the meeting. He hasn’t run since, so it’s pretty evident he’s been put away to win this race off the same mark. I have two issues with him, though, and they are his price (around 9/4) and, related, the chance he’s unlucky once again. I’d be getting him prominent from stall 8 to give him the best possible chance but I think you’ll find more likely winners at this price at the likes of Ripon and Hamilton this week, so I wouldn't be interested in backing him just to try to get a Royal Ascot winner at any cost.

As for Beylerbeyi, you only need to watch his winter runs on the all weather over inadequate trips, off this sort of mark, to know he’s a well handicapped horse. My worry with him is that he’ll be dropped out from stall 16 and he wants a decent gallop to aim at, which might leave him inconvenienced here. He’s halved in price since the final decs and whilst he’s another possible winner, I think the likely disadvantage provided by the run of the race is enough to make me reluctantly overlook him.

Simply put, I want a horse who might be able to pinch a bit of an advantage. It’s not easy to predict what will slot in behind Ismahane, the likely front runner, but Kizlyar and Glenroyal may be seen to best effect.

Kizlyar won a relatively uncompetitive race in Ireland last time out, but the 2nd and 3rd have finished 2nd and 1st since. He doesn’t have too many ground question marks (often a worry for some of the Irish runners in this) and seems to have a nice mix of speed and stamina.

If you can throw out a poor run at Galway last year when turned out again within 24 hours of winning, Glenroyal has effectively won his last three races on the flat. He’s got quite a bit to prove in terms of stamina in the form book, but he’s a full brother to an Irish Cesarewitch winner and a half brother to a winner of this race and it should aid his chance if this becomes a relative speed test for the trip.

I think it’s impossible to be confident about the Ascot Stakes as a betting race, but in terms of value I’d be backing Kizlyar at around 16/1 and Glenroyal at around 20/1 (both win only, there are enough question marks to put me off the place market). Reaching High has a really obvious chance, especially if able to get a good early position, and I’ll be kicking myself if Beylerbeyi wins but I just can’t back him in this sadly.

 

Suggestion: Split a point between 14/1 Kizlyar and 16/1 Glenroyal.

 

Tix Pointers: In 2015 and 2017 Ryan rode the winner for Willie - both returned fav. No other market leader has won since 2002!

Nine of the 13 winners were aged 6+, though placed percentages are a lot more evenly spread.

Willie hasn't won since 2018, and Ian Willie-ams (sorry) has claimed two prizes since then. Williams and Alan King (as well as the unrepresented this year Hughie Morrison) are the UK trainers on which to focus. Joseph O'Brien ran one (unplaced) in the 2024 Ascot Stakes; five (including 2nd 16/1, 3rd 33/1 and 4th 25/1) last year; and saddles seven this time!

Nevertheless, the worst market rank performance in the past decade was a fourth choice making the frame... until last year when the result was 20/1, 16/1 (6th fav), 33/1, 25/1 - as mentioned three of which were Joseph's, though that doesn't help much this year.

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5.35 THE WOLFERTON STAKES (CLASS 1) (Listed Race)

Presented by Matt Bisogno

Run as a handicap until 2017, the Wolferton is one of the trappier races at the Royal meeting. Two years ago, Israr won and returned 11/4 favourite; he was the first since Mahsoob in 2015 and, therefore, the first of the non-handicap era. Roger Varian has two wins since 2020 and John (now with son Thady) Gosden has enjoyed five wins and five places from 21 starters. Both are represented this year.

The specific race conditions - that no horse shall have won a G1 or G2 since at least the previous August - makes it one of the few races not for progressive animals; that of course makes it more inscrutable, not less.

Although horses have won from very wide, five of the eight non-handicap winners were drawn 7 or lower. As the PRB3 (average percent of rivals beaten of a stall and its immediate neighbours) chart clearly outlines, inside is better all other things equal.

 

 

One thing I did notice when reviewing the run style of placed horses will probably become apparent to you when I share the following string: MMHMMMMHMLMPMMMMMMPHMHMLMPPMMPMM

All eight winners raced midfield and, as you can see, most of the placed horses did, too. The inference, borne out by the victors' odds and doubtless painful memory, too, if you habitually play this race, is that hard luck stories abound and it is very often the best trip that wins. That, clearly, makes life difficult.

Roger runs Enfjaar, a six-year-old with limited mileage. This lad ran fourth in the race last year when enduring a troubled passage from an inside stall. Trap seven is fine and, though he's older than probably ideal, this will have been a clear plan and he comes here off a lovely prep in a similar grade at Goodwood four weeks ago.

The Gosdens run Nahraan, unbeaten in three UK starts and third in a Group 3 in France last September. He lacks a run this season, which is a small negative, but the team know what they're doing (duh) so he can be expected to be plenty fit enough. I'm far from convinced by his form, however, for all that he retains obvious upside.

Last year's winner, Haatem, has an obvious chance again. Drawn 2, we know conditions suit and he backed up his Wolferton score with a good third in the Summer Mile over a trip shy of optimal. Given what looked an obvious sighter in the same Goodwood race contested by Enfjaar last time, he's a Wathnan wunner with weal pwospects.

Another string to the Wathnan Wolferton (enough with the W alliter-wation alweady!) bow is King's Gambit, third in the race a year ago. He ran a nice race from an unpromising position at Newmarket on his '26 debut before blowing out completely at Chester three weeks later. That was a too bad to be true effort but his typically held up run style may be suboptimal with so many mid-pack runners with gear changes ahead of him. No better man than Jamie for this gig, for all that the straight track is his muse.

Charlie saddles a couple at prices that look the types to be competitive in a race like this. The first is Ancient Wisdom, who will don first time cheekpieces in his quest to convert some consistent Pattern level form into a win. He'd probably prefer a bit more juice in the ground though he did win his novice on good to firm back in 2023. He's run 222 at ten furlongs, in G2, Listed and G3 company, and he'll probably settle midfield and hope for the gaps from stall 3. Billy Loughnane will be steering.

William Buick opts for Arabian Light, fourth in the Brigadier Gerard (G3) on his UK seasonal debut. He ran on well there having never been put in the race after missing the kick, and does have some solid upgrade figures to get him out of any pockets after the home turn.

The filly Survie is interesting. Although there are plenty of options for her sex, connections have opted to take on the fellas and Ryan will ride for connections of connections (Mrs Doreen Tabor, no less). She - Survie, not Mrs Tabor - has been mixing it in the best company: in the past twelve months she's run third in the Pretty Polly, second in the Prix Jean Romanet, fourth in the Prix Vermeille and third in the Neom Turf Cup in Saudi Arabia - all of those Group 1 races.

This is a sizeable step down then, though she was a well beaten third in the Dahlia Stakes at Newmarket when last seen. There was also a stable switch at the turn of the year - from Nicolas Clement to George Boughey - and this former G2 winner and multi-G1 placer has a class edge if she's, erm, man enough against males. There is a slight question mark about the ground, too; her best form is with some cut and that last day clunk was on similarly good to firm terrain as she'll encounter here. If not for that, I'd have fancied her chances.

It pays to respect anything Francis-Henri Graffard brings over, but Map Of Stars has looked decidedly out of sorts since running well in the Group 1 Prince Of Wales's Stakes over the same course and distance at last year's Royal meeting. Similar respect comments apply to Joseph O'Brien runners - he seems to be operating at another level this campaign - but his pair have car parked in 14 and 15 of 16 which greatly tempers enthusiasm.

I'm not seeing the case for making Wimbledon Hawkeye a single figure price even if it was a badly needed prep race last time. It could be argued that his best form is over ten furlongs on quick ground, so there's that; but it's not easy to see him reversing Sandown form with Arabian Light, particularly from stall 13. Not without a chance but looks short enough to my eye.

Ditto Ghostwriter, making his debut for Kevin Philippart de Foy and his first run since last year's Royal Ascot when he was third in the Hardwicke (1m4f G2). He has back class and this looks his trip, but it'll be a heck of a training performance after 360 days off the course.

Suggestion: As you'll have gathered it's a messy old race. I'm going to split a small stake three ways: I do quite like Arabian Light (20/1 Coral) and expect he'll step considerably forward from his prep run. I also feel like Enfjaar (12/1 Coral) has a chance to redeem a difficult transit a year prior, and I can't resist a tiny bit on Survie (14/1 Hills) despite the going concerns. Very far from confident with any of those, it should be said.

 

Tix Pointers: Only two winning favourites and one second pick since 2013.

However, nine and a half jollies have hit the frame, the wrong joint fav for placepot purposes placing in 2024.

They were joined by two second picks, a third choice and two fourth in. Probably still need to spread out a little in the 'lucky last'...

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6.10 THE COPPER HORSE STAKES (CLASS 2) (Handicap) (GBBPLUS RACE)

Presented by David Massey

When I watched Klassleader beat Sing Us A Song in the Race To The Ebor Jorvik Handicap at York last month I was convinced I’d seen a very strong piece of handicap form, much as I had when I witnessed Merchant winning a similarly competitive York handicap the season before. William Haggas loves sending these potential blots to York - we saw another at the weekend with Extremely Zain - and the form from those races almost always works out well.

So whilst we aren’t seeing Klassleader here (and I'd not be shocked if his next outing was in Group company) we do get Sing Us A Song, and I make him the one to beat. He needed his first run of the season at Epsom when third to Night Breeze in the Metropolitan, the track possibly not suiting him either, and showed the benefits of that when going to York last month. He made a lot of the running there, doing plenty of the donkey work and never given a moment’s peace from Will Scarlet on the front; when you think that, at the line, Will Scarlet was some 17 lengths behind Sing Us A Song, it shows what an excellent shift the latter put in. He’s probably been beaten by a very good horse and the 2lb rise he got for that looks lenient to my eyes. James McDonald takes the ride here.

That’s because James Doyle jumps Wathnan ship to their other contender, Valiancy, who is the Haggas representative. He did nothing but improve as a 3yo, and started this season on the right foot, successful over 13f at Hamilton and barely coming off the bridle to win. He was put up 8lb for that, which looks fair, but if you think James Doyle never chooses the wrong Wathnan one, you only have to go back a year to recall Fallen Angel finishing third to Crimson Advocate in the Duke Of Cambridge to find some evidence of that. McDonald was the beneficiary that day so, with apologies to the Doyler, here’s hoping history repeats itself…

I will be having a saver - and a reverse forecast - with Daiquiri Bay though, because if he wins, having convinced myself there’s a big 14f handicap in him for over a year now, it might just ruin my week. I somewhat fell for him after he won at Chester last year, amazed that one his size was able to handle the Roodee's tight turns as well as he did, and when he turned up in the King George V Stakes here last year, was sure he was going to run a big race. Eighth doesn’t tell you how well he actually ran, the trip just looking on the short side, and a third in the Melrose at York later in the season backed up that impression.

Gelded last autumn, he came back to run a career best when beating Gamrai at Newmarket over a mile and a half in May, stamina once again looking his long suit, and I feel a step up to this trip can only be a plus point. A real trier, which is always half the battle, he’ll have his conditions and can go well.

Suggestion: Back Sing Us A Song at 17/2, and/or Daiquiri Bay at 7/1. Maybe even try a small stakes reverse forecast.

 

Monday Musings: Nasty Business

/in /by

I’ll be missing the whole of Royal Ascot this week, so the freshly cleaned morning suit will remain on its hanger in the wardrobe, writes Tony Stafford. But the reason for it - ten days’ puppy watch while the beloved takes an educational language trip to Italy – brought home to me yet another reason why the UK is rapidly becoming the nastiest, most cynical and rapacious country in Europe

It’s long been annoying that Stansted airport – other airports are similarly greedy - charges a not inconsiderable amount just for dropping off a passenger at the Terminal. On Saturday, something since my last visit appeared to have changed.

I had never noticed directions to free drop-off – involves a bus – but this time I did. Anxious for a quick departure though, we made our way directly to the Terminal knowing a payment was needed. All my previous visits had involved paying by card at the end of the road after the Terminal but this time, all there is to see is a sign saying, “don’t forget to pay by tomorrow.”

At 3.30 am I jolted awake – “payment!” Trying to get on the right site, my bleary eyes were drawn to “airport-service.co.uk”. I went through the steps and was shocked to see an overall charge of £26, £10 for payment and £16 additional for “service”.  So, £26 for a one-minute slide through.

I knew I’d never paid even as much as £10 before and luckily, I was sufficiently awake to hesitate before pressing the button. I scanned the page again and noticed somewhere – “there are cheaper ways to pay this charge” or something of the like. I think it’s only when you get as close to paying as I had that this message appears.

“Airport-service.co.uk” was close enough to the top of the list that all drop-offees must visit - in second place behind the airport’s own payment site. The skilfully worded legend must draw many equally initially gullible people as me every day. Just while I was there, there was a non-stop succession of cars and taxis unloading. Nice work for the airport whether it was on their site or on that of the oh-so-helpful “Service” crowd, that no doubt passes on the tenner and pockets the rest.

There has been much discussion about the damaging effect of the internet on under-16s and the possible moves to ban them from using it over the past few days. How about a more general cleaning-up so that companies like Airport-service.co.uk are no longer allowed to fleece the public with such bare-faced misdirection?

So you’ve guessed. I’m annoyed to miss the five racing days of the year that I anticipate above all others – even more so than those two lovely spells at York with Mr and Mrs Cannon.

Those of you who can go will have a first-day feast in the clashes between the Charlie Appleby pair of Notable Speech and Opera Ballo and the William Haggas-trained More Thunder in the Queen Anne Stakes, and then the rematch between the 2,000 Guineas 1-2 Bow Echo (George Boughey) and Gstaad (Aidan O’Brien) in the St James’s Palace Stakes.

The lure of Royal Ascot means that in both races there are talented horses waiting for a slip-up from the anticipated principals. The Queen Anne’s straight mile has been the source of a host of surprises, not least when Brook got the race in 1974 (I was there) upon the disqualification of the first three finishers. Docklands’ success at 12/1 in the race last year ought not to count as one of those.

Harry Eustace’s six-year-old has never been out of the first four in seven runs on the track and that sole fourth place was close up and barely a length behind the 100/1 winner Cicero’s Gift in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes on Champions Day over the course and distance last October. Since then, he has been clocking up the air miles and annexing foreign currency with a series of good runs in the Far East, either side of an easy win at Doncaster in March.

Again, though, has he the resources to withstand the sort of acceleration that the 2024 2,000 Guineas winner Notable Speech can unleash? The latest version of that came with a devastating burst to win a very competitive renewal of the Lockinge Stakes at Newbury a month ago.

Charlie can back him up with the seven-time-winning (from nine) Opera Ballo, whose demolition of Field Of Gold in the bet365 Mile at Sandown elevated him into an elite category.

Then there’s More Thunder, from the William Haggas team and the one singled out by Tom Marquand as the pick of his stables’ riches over the week. Haggas comes into the week in form, again with some spectacular results from his handicappers (really?) over the past few days.

I read an article quoting my old pal Kieran Fallon suggesting that maybe his son Cieren (different spelling - and accent!) could make a challenge for the jockeys’ title with Oisin this year. If he keeps getting on the right Haggas ones – he did on Saturday at York while Tom Marquand was messing around at Sandown, and had the pleasant task of a steering job, even after repeated blockages on his way through on Extremely Zain in a modestly-endowed for the day seven-furlong handicap.

Runing off 93 in a 0-95 handicap after two wins from two, Extremely Zain was the proverbial Group horse running in a handicap, except he was more probably a Group 1 horse dancing though a handicap. I don’t now how the handicapper was expected to put a figure on his initial wide-margin debut win and then narrow second victory in a Newbury novice.

He must have thought he was safe with 93. One hundred and three wouldn’t have made much difference. The much more valuable six-furlong sprint will seem – when it appears on the screen as a result or on paper if anyone still reads form in that way – much more closely-fought.

The truth is that Zac Lloyd, son of English-born but top Australian jockey Jeff, had everything well under control in that big field. Thunder Call was on 85. He’s another almost sure to get to three figures with a couple of well-chosen and remunerative stopping points along the way.

The rematch between Bow Echo and Gstaad will be the main item for many. At Newmarket, Bow Echo comfortably had the measure of Gstaad while both had the rest of the Classic field miles behind. Gstaad went on to win in Ireland but, with Bow Echo enjoying a steady build-up under Boughey’s single-minded approach, it’s hard to see how this unbeaten colt could be relinquishing his position at the top of the miling tree. I can’t wait to see him get his hands (hooves) on the older bunch.

In the far-off olden days, they would have had a runoff over four miles to decide things later in the day.

Talking of history, one of my favourite races down the years has been the Ascot Stakes. This year, the 20 runners include one from France, six from England and 13 from Ireland, including seven from Oaks-winning trainer Joseph O’Brien. Where have our staying handicappers gone?

James Owen does run one and I’m sure he wishes the lower-rated Carlton could have been high enough to get in; maybe he would have without the Irish logjam. He’ll probably run on Saturday in the level weights and slightly longer Queen Alexandra. The way he finished in the Chester Plate suggests he’ll stay the trip. Get your topper and tails ready, Mick!

I often sound off about handicappers, but in going for one of the non-Joseph Irish contingent, I admit the task in assessing a horse with one win on debut over 1m4f, a third place over 1m6f behind fellow Stakes entry Kizlyar (O’Brien), and then, from his mark of 91 from two outings, a smooth win last time over one mile, is a tricky one!

Now trainer Henry De Bromhead is asking his five-year-old Tim Toe to travel two and a half times as far. Champion Hurdles are one thing, but Henry also loves to go for the posh pots on the flat and this would be a splendid addition to his lengthy jumps honours board.

- TS

Roving Reports: A Royal Debrief

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Ask anyone how their Royal Ascot 2025 was and you’ll pretty much get the same answer, writes David Massey. Hot. It was hot. Hot and sticky. Humid and sticky. Hot, and humid, and sticky. Perm any two from three, basically. We’ll come to that in a while but there’s no sign of that heat in my lovely air-conditioned car as I drive down to Windsor on Monday.

I go at 11am, to try and arrive around half three and meet up with Jason at our digs for the week. We’re staying near Bracknell, at Harman’s Water, which sounds like something you might treat with antibiotics. Having lost two Ascot Airbnb’s in the past couple of months (“twirled”, in bookmaking parlance - you book it early, then nearer the time you’re informed there’s a problem with your house, often something spurious and you know EXACTLY what’s actually happened, you’ve been gazumped by someone offering more money) we’re grateful to have somewhere to stay.

I arrive five minutes before Jason does and get the keys from the lockbox outside. Having opened the door and put the keys on the kitchen side, I start getting my gear in. There’s a room with two single beds which I’ll happily have, then Jason arrives. He starts getting his stuff in too, but as he goes to get his second lot of stuff, closes the door behind him.

It locks automatically.

I look at Jason and Jason looks at me, not realising what he’s done. Panic sets in as I try the door; it won’t open. I can see the keys on the kitchen side through the window but it’s no use, we’re stuffed. It’s taken us precisely four minutes to make our first error of the week.

Jason rings the property owner. He lives in Essex, it turns out, so can’t exactly drop the spare keys off, but he has someone local that does have a spare set. Unfortunately for us, he’s uncontactable until after 6pm, so there’s nothing we can do at this point except head down to Windsor, and get the keys later.

Windsor is full of bookmakers on a jolly night out, and I’m doing the Trackside service for a select few that have taken it for the evening. It’s nice to catch up with a few familiar faces I haven’t seen for a while, including a couple from abroad who come here for the week. This is the first time I’ve not worked for a bookmaker on Ascot week, choosing instead to help Vicki run Trackside. She’s more than capable of doing it on her own, in truth, but the bigger handicaps could use a helping hand, plus she’s other bits and pieces to write up and when that happens I can take over for a while. Come the winter and I’ll be more in the driving seat but Vicki steers on the level.

Having got the keys back (and this time split them up, one now safely attached to my keyring) we get into the digs properly and have a look round. It’s a pretty sparse Airbnb, there’s not much here. Neither has the back grass been cut for a few months. It’s the bare minimum of crockery in the cupboards, there’s hardly a mirror in the place, the TV doesn’t appear to have had any channels loaded onto it. There’s not even a toaster. The lamps in the bedrooms are the flimsiest of things that would go over in a good gust of wind; essentially, this is a student house with four bedrooms.

Thankfully I’ve brought my own fan down which I purchased only that morning from Argos and that at least enables me to get a decent night’s sleep. (It’ll turn out to be the best thirty quid I spend all week.)

The heat is already rising as I drive into Ascot on Tuesday. I try to arrive for around half eight - as many of you know, my first piece of work needs to be in by around half nine for the Life each day, and before that there’s the morning chat with Mr Delargy. It ought to take ten minutes but we’ll inevitably get sidetracked by something else and lose the thread at some point. I’m working in the middle of the track, in the media marquee near the winning post. It at least has a couple of air conditioning units, but is, in the words of one of the bookies reps, “like working in a massive cannabis farm.” I know what he means, not from personal experience you understand. I’ve also access, this year, to the media centre, which is by the paddock. I decide to give that a go Tuesday afternoon, but after a few hours in there, packed in like sardines in thirty degree heat, I decide the cannabis farm, rather than a sauna for battery chickens, is the better option for the rest of the week.

Those that read the Trackside columns will know I’ve been banging on about Docklands winning the Queen Anne since the Diomed, and he gets a right roar from me as he prevails by the narrowest of margins. It might only be race 1, day 1, but that almost ensures a decent Royal Ascot for your scribe, having backed it ante-post as well. I celebrate with a bottle of sparkling water. (Even by this point, those poor lads and lasses that are constantly restocking the fridges with water for us have given up trying to make it look neat by taking it out the plastic outer casing, preferring instead to throw packs of 24 in there and let us fight like caged tigers for them. It isn’t pretty, but it’s effective.)

Each day, before the Royal Parade arrives, you have to decide where you want to be, because at around 1.50 everything gets locked down, all gates are closed, and you have to stay where you are for about 30 minutes. Needless to say, I disappear off to the pre-parade ring nice and early each day, for two reasons; one, it’s obviously the best place for a first glance of the horses as they come in, and two, and arguably more importantly this week, there’s a lot of shade to hide away in up there. On the Thursday I’ve gone particularly early, around 1.20, well over an hour before the first, and unsurprisingly there’s nobody around. I’ve the pre-parade ring to myself until, from nowhere, a sunglasses-wearing figure appears, on his own. It’s Aidan O’Brien.

Aidan, as meticulous as he is, comes up each day to check the box he uses is spot on, that there’s water there for the staff, that everything is in its place. And here’s my chance to say hello to greatness himself. He finishes off his little jobs and walks toward where I’m standing. I wish him well for the day, and that he has luck on his side (like he needs it…). He puts his hand on my shoulder, thanks me for my kindness, and shakes my hand. I’m never washing this hand again. Charles Darwin then goes and wins the Norfolk, and clearly my wishing him luck played a huge part in that. Clearly.

That stay-where-you-are Royal Parade policy creates havoc for a couple of days. Some trainers and owners are caught behind a gate next to the pre-parade ring and aren’t being released as the horses go through to the parade ring. There’s a lot of angry trainers that want to be with their horses but the gate staff stand firm. Once released, it creates a huge bottleneck of connections trying to get into the parade ring (you have to use the walkway, not the horsewalk) and many trainers and owners simply give up, and use the horsewalk instead. The sight of just one attendant, arms spread wide open, trying to turn back a mob, Canute-like, has to be one of the most comedic images of the week. By Thursday this policy has been relaxed, and rightly so.

More on our digs. Rob, the bookmaker I’m staying with this week, comes back on Tuesday night. Let me add, at this point, Rob, and his partner Vanessa, who will be joining us later in the week, were in Vegas the previous week, staying at the Venetian. Now, it’s fair to say our digs are more menace than Venice, but Rob’s main concern is that he can’t find the remote for the telly. I tell him it’s a waste of time, as there’s no terrestrial channels on it, but he hunts down the remote, and finds a film on Netflix to watch instead. He’s asleep within ten minutes of putting it on. Rob can just about stomach the house - “it’s a bit basic, isn’t it?” - but I can’t wait to see what Vanessa makes of it. She’s going to hit the roof when she gets here on Thursday. I’m off to bed at ten, but the fan doesn’t work. It worked perfectly well last night, so what’s the issue? I have a look at the plug and only have to touch it to hear the whole socket fizzing and buzzing. Yep, the socket’s knackered. Add that to the ever-growing list of grumbles with this place.

I’ve already had a catch-up with my Australian bookmaker friend Erin, who comes over for Ascot each year to stand with the Rob Waterhouse crew, but that doesn’t stop me finding her again on Thursday. We have a good chat about the differences between British and Aussie bookmakers, which I always find interesting, before she asks me if I know anyone that might have some change going spare? They’ve already eaten into their stash. I hunt around and come up with a couple of hundred quids' worth, with the promise of some more tomorrow and Saturday if they need it. Erin, very grateful, promises me dinner next year as a thank you. Dinner with a gorgeous young lady, you say? It’s already in the diary, set in stone.

Back to some of the racing. Merchant is another nice winner for me on the week (and how good does that form look after runner-up Serious Contender pushed Lambourn all the way in the Irish Derby at the weekend) and Trawlerman, well, plenty of you probably saw the video I did with a certain Simon Nott that morning. I thought he was the bet of the week, and so it proved. Ascot is normally a tough week for me, but I’m nicely in front, and so it seems are most of the punters on the Thursday, with the bookmakers having to be carried out on stretchers after five winning favourites on the day. “Black armbands, gentleman”, as one bookie is heard to remark as he leaves the track.

Thursday night, and with Liam and Heather, who will be working for Rob the next two days, joining myself and Rob in the digs, they all decide to go down the pub to eat, whereas I’ve work to do, and have bought myself a microwave meal for one from Morrisons. (One of the many, many joys of working on the road.) I’m beavering away when the phone goes. It’s Rob, in the pub.

“Vanessa’s just arrived, but she says she can’t find the house. Can you ring her and direct her in?”. I’ve just realised - the crafty sods have all disappeared down the pub to leave me with Vanessa’s ire. I ring Vanessa and she’s just in the wrong part of the street. She parks up, gets out the car, looks at the unkempt garden and before I even get a hello, she looks at me and says one word. “Pi**hole.”

I just burst out laughing, as there’s no other reaction at this point. She rings Rob. “You’d better bring some wine back. And good wine, nothing cheap.” Vanessa is, let’s go with underwhelmed, with the place. I love Vanessa to bits, she’s actually from my neck of the woods and so we (literally) have some common ground between us, but I don’t think she’s in a particularly talkative mood at present! I leave her to explore the rest of the house, which takes her all of ten minutes.

Friday, and the heat reaches unbearable. I’d brought two suits along, thinking I’d change into the lighter linen one today, but that idea was abandoned after a day. However, I’m in the pre-parade ring when a fashion faux-pas is pointed out by photographer Debbie. I’ve had this suit three years now and never noticed the flaps are stitched together at the back. “They need releasing”, she says, “you’ll notice the benefits then.” She’s right, and after a bit of cutting using my keys, the airflow around my back is so much better. Three years, and I’ve never noticed. I’m a bit thick like that, sometimes. I can go into minute detail over a 0-100 handicap at Worcester but not spot two flaps stitched together that ought not to be for three years. My brain, like most men's brains, are wired up differently/wrongly (take your pick).

To top the week off, I’ve been playing low six/high six in the big straight-track handicaps all week, just for buttons, to see how I’d come out at the end of the week. By that I mean the lowest six drawn and the highest six drawn, just in case there’s a track bias. High draws seemed in charge for a day or two but that appears to have swung back a little, and when I hit 5p’s worth of the 11k trifecta in the Sandringham, it’ll ensure the best Ascot I’ve had for many a year. It’s almost worth putting up with the unbearable weather.

Friday night is fish’n’chip night at the digs, only when the food arrives we realise this place is not just short of crockery, but cutlery as well. There’s four of us (Liam has disappeared off to the pub to watch the rugby) and this place has - wait for it - only two forks. Thankfully Rob has some plastic cutlery in the van which saves the day, but the lack of utensils tips Vanessa over the edge again, and the not-cheap wine makes a reappearance. After food, Rob puts a film on and falls asleep (after the obligatory ten minutes) and myself, Vanessa and Heather get a pack of cards out. We teach Heather how to play rummy, and she learns quick, winning six of ten hands we play that night. This is actually the most relaxed we’ve been in this place since we got here. Maybe the wine (and my beer) has something to do with it. Or maybe it’s because we’re going home tomorrow.

Saturday, finally. Time to bid adieu, but not before the stifling weather has one more say. We pack up and leave the digs, vowing never to come anywhere near the place again (I think Vanessa has just about stopped short of torching it) and it’s by far my worst punting day of the week, giving a bit of the winnings back. I don’t have enough on the one success I do have, concentrating on the Wokingham instead, and get nowhere near the winner, or indeed places, and the exotics are a waste of time. Don’t worry, we can get it (or should that be Get It?) back on the Stewards Cup when Holkham Bay wins.

And that’s what’s next, Glorious Goodwood. Last year, we sweltered in the heat there, too. The highlight of that week was a dip in the sea at Bognor Regis. God, that felt good. It’s bound to rain this year, isn’t it?

See you all there.

- DM

Options aplenty for impressive Albany heroine Venetian Sun

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Connections of Venetian Sun will be dreaming big after she rose admirably to the challenge at Royal Ascot to land the Albany Stakes.

The filly has clearly always been held in high regard by trainer Karl Burke, and demonstrated exactly why when overcoming a difficult draw to take Group Three honours by a length and a half last week.

While there is no great hurry to formulate an immediate plan for the two-year-old daughter of Starman, a handful of races have been identified as possible next targets for the Tony Bloom and Ian McAleavy-owned youngster.

Bloom’s racing manager Sean Graham said: “Karl said she came out of the race in great order.

All smiles for the Venetian Sun team at Royal Ascot
All smiles for the Venetian Sun team at Royal Ascot (John Walton/PA)

“You’ve Newmarket for the Duchess of Cambridge, which is six furlongs at the July meeting, and you’ve got the Lowther over six furlongs at York. Later in the season you’ve also got the Moyglare over seven furlongs at the Curragh.

“We said to Karl that we’d let the hare sit after Royal Ascot and not be in any mad rush to make any definite decisions, but those races are certainly on our radar.

“If you win the Albany from a dreadful draw you probably have a much better filly still, she had no cover and was on the wide outside – everything went wrong and yet she still won.”

The Guineas was mentioned in the immediate aftermath of the Ascot contest, with all connections singing from the same hymn sheet with regards to Venetian Sun’s potential, while remaining mindful that her three-year-old season is a distant prospect still.

Graham added: “I think most trainers would automatically be thinking about the Guineas with an Albany winner, but her owners are very aware that an awful lot can happen between now and then so we won’t get too ahead of ourselves.”

Trawlerman comes of age with Gold Cup haul

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It is not a common occurrence for a horse to start winning Gold Cups at seven – Yeats had two triumphs on his CV by the time he added a third in his seven-year-old season, Drums Taps was defending his title when he won in 1993, so too was Invershin in 1929.

Perhaps Trawlerman was prevented from an earlier success by the other things he clearly had on his mind as a young horse, namely a one-sided feud with the starting stalls that scuppered his chances more than once.

When that score was settled is unknown, but it is clear that with time, patience and expert handling he has developed into the kind of standing-dish stayer associated with Ascot’s oldest race.

The term ‘dour stayer’ usually enters the racing vocabulary in the wettest part of winter when the ground is hock-deep, but it was on rapid going and under a sweltering sun that Trawlerman managed to call the phrase to mind several months out of season.

The 85-40 favourite under William Buick, John and Thady Gosden’s gelding nipped into an early lead and lolloped along at the head of affairs to gain an advantage that only seemed to widen as the race progressed.

When he swung for home and passed the clanging bell there was evidently no blow that could reach him, and it was with consummate ease that he sauntered home seven lengths ahead to break the track record over the trip and take his place at the head of the staying standings.

“We came here today and William was very clear what he was going to do, he was going to set a good, even pace and gradually press them from Swinley Bottom all the way through,” said John Gosden.

“The pretenders – the Aga Khan horse (Candelari) and the Coolmore and Ballydoyle horse (Illinois) – they’d have to stay two and a half miles properly. And they didn’t stay, we took them for stamina.

“It was the plan, beyond the plan, absolutely the plan – and he carried it off to perfection. We spend months planning this, we don’t just think ‘oh, shall we run at Ascot next week?’.

“It’s months in the making and they come here in top order. He’s one of the most relentless, proper gallopers. Going wire to wire in this takes a bit of doing, as does breaking the track record,

“It gives me enormous pleasure, I love the Cup races and I always have done. I’m inclined to run one more race and then put him away and come back next year.

“That’s more important than anything, we’ve won it once now, let’s see if he can win it again.”

Of Trawlerman’s earlier waywardness and his more mannerly approach as an older horse, Gosden added: “He used to be a hooligan, an absolute hooligan!

“Now even I’d ride him, though I don’t suppose he’d particularly appreciate that.

“He’s a fabulous horse to be around, he’s like his father – incredibly brave. Golden Horn would run through a wall for you and this horse is the same.”

Trawlerman has always been a very good horse, but he has not always been a very good boy – now he is both.

Ascot Eyecatcher will not be an Understudy for long

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John and Thady Gosden’s Understudy is unlikely to be so overlooked next time she lines up after finishing second in the Ribblesdale Stakes at Royal Ascot.

Beaten three and a quarter lengths by the far more experienced Garden Of Eden, Understudy proved she was underestimated when a 40-1 chance under Robert Havlin.

The run was only her third racecourse start and a big leap up in class, pointing to plenty more to come from the flashy chestnut daughter of Sea The Stars.

Royal Ascot Tix Picks, Day 1

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This week, as part of our Royal Ascot content, I'll be making a suggested placepot permutation each day.

I'll be using the ABCX approach, outlined here, and some online software called Tix which I built in conjunction with Nige, the guy who coded most of the original geegeez.co.uk racecards and form tools. [It is excellent software, though I say so myself]

Basically, I'm creating a number of different placepot bets based around how strongly I fancy various horses; and I'm weighting my stakes accordingly.

When I say 'I', I mean Tix is doing all of that; I'm just picking horses and choosing whether they're A (strongest fancy), B (fair chance) or C (dark horse/lively outsider). X are the horses I'm discarding from contention.

Tix Bonus

Every winning ticket placed through Tix benefits from a 5% bonus return. Win £100? You'll get £105. Win £500? Enjoy an extra £25. Just for placing your bets through Tix.

Prizes to be won

And, because it's Royal Ascot week, we've got some Tix prizes to give away

Tuesday to Friday

For the first four days of the Royal meeting, the Tix player with the highest return on investment on a single ticket will win £50.

Saturday

On the final day of Royal Ascot, the Tix player netting top ROI will win £100, credited to their tote account.

So that's £300 in prizes this week!

What do you need?

You simply need a tote account. Get one here if you don't already have one. [You'll probably be eligible for extra bonuses when signing up, but obviously do check the T's and C's]

**

OK, that's the set up. Let's get to it. The first question is where to go narrow and where to spread out. My inclination was to be narrow in the Group 1's but the Queen Anne and King Charles III are very open, and I hate the 'seven runner with an odds on' feel of the St James's Palace!

Leg 1 - Queen Anne Stakes:

In the end I've opted to bank in the first race and prey (and potentially place lay) for Rosallion. He should improve a ton from Newbury. There are lots and lots of dangers but I want to throw plenty of mud in later legs so it's Rosallion banker and devil take the hindmost.

A - 10 Rosallion

Leg 2 - Coventry Stakes:

The 123 last year were 80/1, 40/1, 50/1 so I'm putting a cast of thousands on a dreamy C ticket. I'll need A horses to place in the all other five legs for this to fly and, in truth, it's probably not too smart. I'm also loading up on A's. If we survive leg 2, it will be interesting.

A - 1 American Gulf, 9 Gstaad, 12 Postmodern, 13 Power Blue, 20 Underwriter
C - 4 Bone Marra, 5 Bourbon Blues, 6 Coppull, 8 Gavoo, 10 Kolkata Knight, 16 Shaatir, 17 Super Soldier, 19 Tricky Tel

Leg 3 - King Charles III Stakes:

23 runners, only three places up for grabs. Sheesh. Regional is fast, so too Asfoora who sees out a stiff five well as she did when winning this last year. Believing is a third very obvious dart. Hard to see all three missing the podium. Ed Walker has improved Mgheera since she arrived from France and she may not be finished yet.

A - 7 Regional, 12 Asfoora, 14 Believing, 16 Mgheera

Leg 4 - St James's Palace Stakes:

I really want to bank on Henri Matisse but I'm not brave enough. You might be!

A - 1 Field Of Gold, 3 Henri Matisse

Leg 5 - Ascot Stakes:

Willie has a good grip on the market here, and he's bagged Buick and Moore to ride Poniros and Reaching High respectively. That pair will take out chunks of the pool between them so we need to find something that might knock them off the tickets. Poniros is drawn higher than ideal. East India Dock's jump mark of 145+ implies he has a bit more to give on the level though he's been in a lot of scraps without a break. 18 is a bad draw, too. Manxman is progressive, handles big fields, is tactically versatile and has a great post. Mr Hampstead has snuck in at the bottom of the weights and is also well drawn and progressive.

Woot City is well related, well drawn and a massive price. C. Divine Comedy placed last year and the trainer has a fantastic Ascot record. Also C, along with the well drawn guesses Ascending and Saturn.

A - 8 Manxman, 15 Reaching High, 19 Mr Hampstead, 20 Poniros

C - 3 Divine Comedy, 9 Ascending, 12 Saturn, 18 Woot City

Leg 6 - Wolferton Stakes:

Only once since this race became a non-handicap in 2018 has the unnamed favourite missed the frame - and that was in the inaugural non-handicap renewal. It's likely to be Enfjaar but we'll let the market decide. On B, I'll roll with a Wathnan trio in Haunted Dream, Torito and King's Gambit.

A - Unnamed favourite

B - 10 Haunted Dream, 11 King's Gambit, 15 Torito

Full ticket view

For pennies, £24.96 stakes. A single placed entry from A in each leg gives a 4p winning line, but of course it's possible to get more than one in each.

Full disclosure: even if this perm gets 'winning' tickets, there's a chance it pays less than the total stakes. We're really trying to get something interesting to happen at some point in the sequence!

The full A (green) B (yellow) C (tan) view looks like this:

 

 

And the breakdown by ticket is like this:

 

 

Remember, you need to have a placed selection in each leg on at least one ticket. That means at least four races with A picks placing.

Place your Tix bets here - and you'll be in line for a 5% bonus on winning tickets, and a chance to win £50 daily through Royal Ascot.

Illinois and Candelari on course for Gold Cup showdown

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Aidan O’Brien’s Illinois and Francis-Henri Graffard’s Candelari have the chance to fill the void left by Kyprios after standing their ground for the Gold Cup at Royal Ascot.

There is a vacancy at the top of the staying tree after the recent retirement of O’Brien’s dual Gold Cup hero, but hopes are high Illinois could prove a ready-made replacement judged on his impressive Ormonde Stakes success at Chester.

O’Brien has also confirmed Coronation Cup hero Jan Brueghel, but Illinois is poised for a mouthwatering showdown with Graffard’s French raider, who announced himself at the top-level with a sublime performance at ParisLongchamp in the Prix Vicomtesse Vigier.

John and Thady Gosden’s Trawlerman and Sweet William have been regular bridesmaids to Kyprios and now have the chance of their moment in the spotlight, with the former winning well in his Sandown reappearance.

Andrew Balding’s Coltrane is another regular in this event, but he will have to reverse Sagaro Stakes form with Michael Bell’s Yashin to make his presence felt, with Bell looking to recreate the Gold Cup exploits of Big Orange from 2017.

Saeed bin Suroor has confirmed Dubai Gold Cup scorer Dubai Future, with James Ferguson’s Wonder Legend given the chance to transfer his smart all-weather form on turf.

The 10-strong list is rounded off by Alan King’s stalwart Trueshan, although the warm weather has the potential to once again scupper any hope of him appearing in this race.

Satono Reve settling in well as Royal Ascot support continues

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Confidence is building that Satono Reve can become the first Japanese-trained winner at Royal Ascot.

The sprinter is in the care of Noriyuki Hori, who is a leading handler in his homeland and will have his first runner at the Royal meeting when his six-year-old lines up in the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes in the hands of top international jockey Joao Moreira.

Satono Reve had the assistance of Ryan Moore as he underwent his final preparations for his Ascot assignment on Newmarket’s July course on Wednesday morning, with Hori happy with how his contender has settled into his temporary surroundings in British racing’s heartland.

Ryan Moore rode Satono Reve at Newmarket
Ryan Moore rode Satono Reve at Newmarket (Adam Morgan/PA)

“After arriving from Hong Kong, Satono Reve had some time to recover before steadily building up his training,” said Hori.

“We completed his final gallop before the race – a five-furlong piece on the July course at Newmarket, ridden by Ryan Moore.

“Although it’s a different environment from what he’s used to, he’s been coming along well thanks to the warm support of James Horton, his team and everyone involved.”

There have been 10 previous attempts to find the Royal Ascot scoresheet by Japanese challengers, but Satono Reve brings top-class form to the table having enjoyed Grade One success at home and also twice chasing home Hong Kong sprint sensation Ka Ying Rising.

His odds for the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes have tumbled in recent days, as the case for his challenge has become more evident, with Paddy Power making him a 6-1 chance for the final Group One of the meeting on Saturday week.

Paddy Power spokesman Paul Binfield said: “There’s been a bit of interest for the Japanese raider and while it’s hard to equate winning a Grade One at Chukyo with the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes, the volume we’ve seen has forced us into evasive action and the Hori-trained runner is into 6-1.”

Royal Ascot 2025: Analysing The Group 1 Races

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There are three festivals a year I get really excited about, writes Dave Renham. The Cheltenham Festival and Glorious Goodwood are two; and the third, which is soon to be upon us, is of course Royal Ascot. Around this time last year I looked in detail at the big 1-mile handicaps at the meeting - you can catch up with that piece here. This year I am concentrating on the Group 1 races.

Introduction

There are eight Group 1s run at the Royal meeting and they are as follows:

 

 

As would be expected, there is a good mix of different race distances and conditions although there is only one Group 1 race at a distance beyond 1m 2f, the Gold Cup.

In this article I am looking back on the last ten years of these Group 1 contests, trying to find any snippets that may help us when tackling the races this year. Profit and losses have been calculated to Betfair Starting Price (BSP) less 2% commission.

Royal Ascot Group 1s by Market Rank

Let me start by examining the market. I have ranked the runners based on BSP, which is the most accurate way of doing it. Further, it eliminates almost all of the ‘joint’ market positions.

 

 

These races have definitely been market-friendly with the top three betting positions each producing a blind profit. Those fourth in the Betfair betting lists have performed poorly but due to the modest sample we can perhaps assume this is an anomaly. Regardless, it seems that the top three in the betting are the ones to concentrate on.

Group 1 Favourites at Royal Ascot

Narrowing in on favourites, below are the Percentage of Rivals Beaten (PRB) figures for each individual race to help give a better overview of favourite performance in specific races. For the record the average PRB figures for favourites across the eight races combined stands at 0.76.

 

 

There has been quite a variance with Gold Cup favourites performing best, and by some margin. Their actual performance in the Gold Cup has been as follows:

 

 

During the ten year study period the Gold Cup favourite secured five wins, two seconds, a third and two fourths, so no BSP jolly has completely bombed out.

Royal Ascot Group 1s: Top 3 Market Ranks

If we undertake the same type of PRB analysis across the top three in the betting, the graph generally becomes more even:

 

 

The St James’s Palace has the highest figure now with the Gold Cup a close second. Nine of the ten winners of the St James’s Palace came from the top three in the betting (four favourites, three second favs, two third favs).

Conversely, of all the races the Commonwealth Cup has seen fancied runners struggle the most. Favourites have won three of the last ten Commonwealth Cup renewals, but there were no wins for second favourites (two wins for third favs). Quite a few horses that were in the top three of the betting have bombed out with 10 of the 30 failing to finish in the top ten, three of them being favourites.

It should be noted that the four winning Commonwealth Cup favourites in the past decade more than paid for the other six losing jollies, returning a profit of 2.55 units at BSP.

Royal Ascot Group 1s by Last Time Out (LTO) Position

The second area I want to look at is recent performance and specifically LTO finishing position. Here is a breakdown of performance by last day finishing position (I have grouped all horses together that finished fifth or worse LTO):

 

 

The BSP profit for those that finished third LTO has been totalled skewed by the 140.0 BSP winner Khaadem. LTO winners do look the group to concentrate on with over half of the 80 winners having also won on their most recent start. If we combine LTO winners with a position in the top three in the betting, then we see some excellent results: 36 winners from 115 runners (SR 31.13%) for a profit of £30.50 (ROI +26.5%); A/E 1.14.

It is also worth keeping an eye out for LTO winners that won by at least a length in the race prior to Ascot. These runners have scored 18.9% of the time (30 wins from 159) for a profit of £29.13 (ROI +18.3%).

 

Royal Ascot Group 1s by Last Time Out (LTO) Race Class

Onto looking at the class of race LTO. Here are the splits:

 

 

As we would expect horses that ran in Group 1 company last time have won most often. Those that raced in Group 3 or Listed Class LTO have been profitable, but both have been skewed by very big priced winners going in. Still, Royal Ascot is a meeting where horses fairly consistently win at massive odds.

LTO winners that contested a Group 1 race have actually offered poor value despite a strike rate of close to 30%. The 51 qualifiers lost over 28p in the £ if backing them to repeat the Group 1 win at Royal Ascot.

Royal Ascot Group 1s by Days Since Last Run (DSLR)

It is time to see whether the timing of the last run before Royal Ascot makes a difference. It should be noted this data does not include French, American or Australian runners as I do not have facility to check those. However, it still applies to over 90% of Ascot runners. Here are my findings:

 

 

As the table shows, I have included 50 to 240 days as a single group simply because there are very few runners within that grouping, and their performance has been poor. I wanted to help highlight the difference between that group and the group absent 241+ days (or eight months-plus).

The biggest cohort had a run between 22 and 35 days prior to Ascot and their results have been positive given the overall context. To give a broader overview let me share the PRB figures for each ‘days off track’ grouping:

 

 

These figures correlate with the win strike rates. The figures for 22 to 35 days and 241 days+ are clearly best. Finally in this section, below is the ten-year performance in Royal Ascot Group 1s of horses from the top three in the betting by days since last run:

 

 

Again, this points to the same two groups (22 to 35 days; 241+ days) as the areas in which to focus from a positive perspective. They would have offered punters very good value over the past ten years.

Royal Ascot Group 1 Trainers

The final area I will consider is that of trainers although it should be noted that data is limited. There are a handful of trainers who have saddled at least 20 runners in Royal Ascot Group 1s in the last ten years, and they are shown in the following table:

 

 

It is important not to take these figures (especially big profit lines) too literally due to the sample sizes. It is probably more prudent to look at the PRB values to give a better general indication of how each trainer's horses have run:

 

 

William Haggas, despite having just one winner from 24, has an excellent PRB figure so it looks like he has been somewhat unlucky in recent years. He has endured five second places,  as well as four thirds and five fourths. Haggas looks a trainer that may offer some placepot/ each way value at the very least next week.

By contrast, Roger Varian’s runners have really struggled although a good proportion of his charges have been bigger prices. Indeed, Charyn, in last year's Queen Anne Stakes is Varian's sole Royal Ascot G1 winner to date. There are sure to be more in future but his seem a little over-bet.

Other trainer titbits to share include the fact that Aidan O’Brien's 13 Group 1 winners in the past decade have all been ridden by Ryan Moore (from 61 rides). All other jockeys riding for O'Brien are a combined 0 from 43 since 2015, although again most of these runners were outsiders. Sticking with O’Brien it seems best to concentrate on those starting favourite or second favourite. They have combined to produce 12 of his 13 winners (from 34 qualifiers) returning a small 2p in the £. Finally, albeit from a very small sample, the Gosden stable has had four winners and four placed runners from just 13 runners aged four.

Summary

The Group 1 races at Royal Ascot are the races that owners, trainers and jockeys covet the most, although any win at the Royal meeting is huge.

In terms of the Group 1s, the most fancied runners - those in the top three in the betting - have fared much the best. Don’t be put off by horses having their first run in more than eight months (241+ days) and we might also consider a break of 22 to 35 days (three to five weeks) as more of a positive than a negative.

A last day win is preferable to other finishing positions and a last time out win coupled with a top three position in the betting market has been a very strong positive. From the training ranks, William Haggas appears to have been quite unlucky in the past decade and certainly I’ll be popping a few of his runners in my placepots at the very least. Aidan O’ Brien runners are worth noting if starting in the top two of the betting and particularly when ridden by Ryan Moore.

Wishing you the best of luck with your Royal Ascot Group 1 wagers.

- DR

Moday Musings: For Age

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It’s so difficult if you aren’t sure where to look, writes Tony Stafford. I’ve got a 2002 Directory Of the Turf and a few Horses In Training to help me and also the BHA web pages, but can I find a copy of the latest Weight For Age scale? No, I can’t. At which point, dozens of people – if that many read this, of course - will be jumping up and down and saying, here it is you idiot. [Here it is, you absolute gent - Ed.]

The nearest I got was to project forward two months to a race I know allows two-year-olds to compete with their elders. Of course, it’s the Coolmore Wootton Bassett Nunthorpe Stakes over five furlongs at York’s Ebor meeting.

Two-year-olds carry 8st 3lb and three-year-old have 9st 11lb. You’d think that would be more than enough for a juvenile to take advantage and beat his/her elders. The last two to do so were Lyric Fantasy (7st 8lb for Michael Roberts) in 1992 for the Richard Hannon senior stable, Lord Carnarvon’s filly beating stable-companion Mr Brooks and Lester Piggott by half a length.

The last male winner of the race was the John Best-trained and John Mayne-owned Kingsgate Native 19 years ago and I remember thinking him a good thing. He and Jimmy Quinn did the business that day and these are the only two since Ennis in 1956!

The WFA allusion is significant. If the scale requires a concession of 22lb by older horses to their juniors over five furlongs in August, then extending that to seven furlongs and going back even earlier into the season, to mid-June, surely must take the number past 30lb [it's 38lb from the start of July - Ed.].

On Saturday at Royal Ascot, the very high-class Haatem was shrewdly directed from the Group 1 company he had been keeping down to Group 3 for the Jersey Stakes for three-year-olds. The 2000 Guineas third, behind Notable Speech and Rosallion, his stable-mate and the only horse to beat him in the Irish 2000, left the St James’s Palace to that horse and dropped back a furlong.

He won, but was all out in a race where there were three in a line as they passed the post and the first ten were all at it hammer and tongs in the last 100 yards. Haatem recorded a time of 1 minute 26.85 seconds.

Two hours earlier, the opening race on day five, the Chesham Stakes, a seven-furlong Listed race for juveniles, threw up the most spectacular performance of the week. Here, Bedtime Story, a daughter of Frankel out of dual Nunthorpe winner (at age four and five) Mecca’s Angel, making her second start, was simply sensational.

Ryan Moore waited until just before the two-furlong pole before sending her into the lead and she sauntered further and further clear right to the line. The winning margin was nine and a half lengths, despite Ryan’s having no need to do more than keep time with her action.

Neither did he bother to correct the slight coming off a straight line in the last furlong, moving maybe three or four horse widths to the left. Her winning time? 1 minute 27.01 seconds, just one-sixth of a second slower than Haatem, carrying 6lb less. The fillies in the Jersey Stakes carried 5lb less than Haatem.

In form terms, Bedtime Story’s run was far in excess of Haatem’s once the scale is considered and was a reminder of the day last summer when the same Hannon horse saw the backside of City Of Troy in the Superlative Stakes.

He did get his revenge at Newmarket on City Of Troy’s baffling - even to Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore - run in the 2000 Guineas but it was back to normal as City Of Troy romped home in the Derby and also for much of last week for the Ballydoyle team.

Before the week started, Ryan had confided to a friend that Auguste Rodin, Opera Singer and Kyprios were his top three. Opera Singer hardly let the side down with second place in the Ribblesdale, but Auguste Rodin and Kyprios were both right back at their best. Judging how the former’s stylish success was celebrated by some of the visiting Australian contingent, his future, either on the track or in the breeding shed, might well be interesting.

My meeting began with one of those omissions that could easily have spoilt the whole five days. I stood in the paddock chatting to Sam Sangster and Brian Meehan as the juveniles for race two, the Coventry Stakes, waited to go into the stalls.

Brian had told me in the morning how he expected a big run from Rashabar, who was drawn on the far side, running in Sam’s Manton Thoroughbreds colours. Before the race it would have been guesswork as to which side would be favoured. As Rashabar detached himself from his group coming to the last furlong, you could see there were challengers aplenty on the near side.

They flashed over the line together but wide apart and it was by a nose that Rashabar prevailed with the next nine home all on the other flank. Eleventh home but second on his side was the Coolmore favourite Camille Pissarro, four lengths behind.

Brian Meehan has begun to specialise in 80/1 winners; he also had one, Monkey Island, at Newbury during York’s Dante meeting. The 80/1 here stretched to 129/1 on the Tote, of which I foolishly forgot to accommodate myself on the way down from the stands. Billy Loughnane, only 18, deserved all his glowing comments for an excellent ride.

Meehan also was successful later in the meeting in a Group 3 with the lightly-raced three-year-old Jayarebe, owned by Iraj Parvizi, back with the trainer after a longish gap. Brian won the Breeders’ Cup Turf for the owner with Dangerous Midge in 2010 at Churchill Downs.

It’s always nice to record successes by friends, but in the case of Wilf Storey it’s almost becoming an embarrassment. Probably last week or maybe the one before, I recounted the tale of Edgewater Drive and his win at Carlisle.

Last Monday, now faced by older horses and from a 7lb higher mark, the Dandy Man three-year-old gelding bolted up again under the much-underrated Paula Muir. I had mentioned the absurd disqualification of a recent winner of Paula’s at Wolverhampton, one which carried the added injustice of a two-day ban.

Paula learnt before Edgewater Drive’s race that the Wolverhampton disqualification had been overturned as had her ban. A double bubble for her.

On Saturday evening at Ayr, nicely sandwiching the entire Royal meeting, she and Wilf Storey were reunited with the seven-year-old Going Underground. Winner of just one of his 32 previous races and off through injury for a year until a recent comeback run, he came from miles back to win on the line. You rarely see that type of finishing speed in 0-50 Classifieds. If his old wheels can handle it – Going Underground not Wilf - he should win again.

Earlier this year, Paula was considering giving up and had been training for a future career as a dog groomer, but five wins in short time for Storey have no doubt helped change her mind. Much of the credit for the team withstanding owners wishing to replace her at several stages in the past have been met firmly by Wilf and granddaughter Siobhan Doolan, the assistant trainer.

As to the Storey story. My friend of almost exactly 40 years has run four individual horses on the flat this year – all picked up for a total of less than 20k at various Newmarket sales. Between them they have had ten runs in 2024 and won five of them. There can’t be many trainers, let alone this veteran, well into his 80’s, with a 50% strike-rate!

- TS

Royal Ascot 2024: Day 4 (Friday) Preview, Tips

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And so to the fourth and final quarter of the geegeez.co.uk daily race previews, Friday, Day 4. Two Group 1's, led out by the relatively new Commonwealth Cup and followed up with a cracking Coronation Stakes, are the features but there's plenty to go at from start to end, beginning with the...

2.30 Albany Stakes (6f, Group 3, 2yo fillies)

Presented by John Burke's "Victor Value" service

It's hard to believe we've already reached the fourth day of Royal Ascot — time certainly flies when you're having fun. This is my final day of previewing a daily race for Geegeez, and I've genuinely enjoyed it. I hope you've found my musings on the various contests both insightful and enjoyable.

On Wednesday, I tipped a 20/1 winner for Victor Value subscribers. Interestingly, if I hadn’t been previewing the juvenile races for this site, I probably wouldn’t have even looked at that race. So I owe a big thanks to Matt Bisogno for pushing me in the two-year-old direction. [You're welcome, John - just wish I'd given you the Windsor Castle for Wednesday! - Ed.]

Today, let's talk about the Albany Stakes, a prestigious Group 3. Here are some key details about the race: Run over six furlongs the Albany Stakes was inaugurated in 2002, making it one of the newer races at the Royal Ascot meeting. Initially classified at Listed level, it was promoted to Group 3 status in 2005, reflecting its growing importance and quality of participants.

Over the years, several winners of the Albany Stakes have gone on to achieve greater success in their racing careers, enhancing the race's reputation as a launchpad for future champions. For instance, the last two winners, Porta Fortuna (2023) and Meditate (2022), both went on to achieve Group 1 success. Winning or performing well in the Albany Stakes can significantly enhance the reputation and value of a filly, both in terms of racing and breeding potential.

The Albany Stakes continues to maintain its status as a key early-season race for two-year-old fillies.

Key Trends (Last 5 Years):

Last Time Out Track: Naas – 2 winners from 5 runners +40, 3 places

Last Time Out Placing: 1st - 5 winners from 86 runners, 15 places (non-winners last time are 0 from 33 runners, 4 places)

Key Contenders:

Fairy Godmother

Trainer: Aidan O’Brien. Fairy Godmother built on her debut promise by defeating five rivals in the Group 3 Fillies' Sprint Stakes at Naas last time. The daughter of Night Of Thunder is bred to be speedy and sets a high standard.

Heavens Gate

Trainer: Aidan O’Brien. Heavens Gate won a Curragh maiden over the distance 26 days ago. Like Fairy Godmother, she is open to further improvement. She has the rail draw in stall 17.

Mountain Breeze

Trainer: Charlie Appleby. Mountain Breeze looked impressive when winning at Newmarket last month. The daughter of Lope De Vega is now two from two and is poised for a big run, posing the main threat to the favourite in my view.

California Dreamer

Trainer: Adrian Murray. California Dreamer finished a length third to Fairy Godmother at Naas. This was a significant improvement from her Dundalk debut, indicating she has more to offer, although beating Fairy Godmother will be tough.

Twafeeg

Trainer: Archie Watson. Twafeeg showcased her speed by winning on debut at Doncaster 20 days ago. There is more to come from her, and an Archie Watson juvenile should never be underestimated at Royal Ascot.

Simmering

Trainer: Ollie Sangster. Simmering showed plenty of promise on her debut at York, finishing third behind Arabie, who has since won a Group 3 at Chantilly. Sent off the 3/1 favourite at York she must have been showing plenty at home. While beating top contenders like Fairy Godmother and Mountain Breeze will be tough, Simmering has room for plenty of improvement. With Jamie Spencer on board, she could get into the places.

Albany Stakes Verdict:

Fairy Godmother sets a high bar and will be tough to beat, but Mountain Breeze is also a strong contender and should provide a stern challenge. Twafeeg, coming off a recent win at Doncaster, has solid each-way claims. The most intriguing runner in the line-up is Simmering, who arguably has the most potential for improvement among the 17 fillies.

Betting Advice:

My idea of the winner is Fairy Godmother and 13/8 looks a fair price about her chance but if you’re looking for an each-way play at big odds I would consider Simmering if you can get 25/1 and four places.

Simmering: £2 each way – 25/1 @ bet365 (paying four places)

 

3.05 Commonwealth Cup (6f, Group 1, 3yo)

Preview by Matt Bisogno

Introduced in 2015, this six furlong Group 1 for three-year-olds only is a terrific addition to the Royal Ascot menu. It's been a slot where failed Classic aspirants have rediscovered their top class mojo over a more suitable trip; and where genuinely fast horses can show their (go faster) stripes. In its nine years to date, no trainer has taken the prize more than once, and no horse has returned greater than 12/1 in spite of big fields being commonplace.

Sheikh Obaid has a strong hand with, at time of writing, the first two in the betting. Inisherin was supplemented at some expense, even by a Sheikh's standard, after an easy score in the Group 2 Sandy Lane Stakes at Haydock. He'd previously led the 2000 Guineas field to the quarter pole before the lactic acid kicked in and he checked out. Remarkably, and atypically, he'd never run shorter than a mile prior to the Haydock race. That's a bit of a question mark given it was soft ground there, and so more of an emphasis on stamina, whereas it will be fast turf here. Moreover, leading against milers who are saving something for the final two furlongs is different from trying to best the fastest and classiest speedsters of his generation. He has an obvious chance to win but looks opposable at the prices.

Arrow number two in Sheikh Obaid's quiver is Elite Status, who lived up to his name when hacking up in a Listed race over this trip at Newbury last time. Trained by Karl Burke, who has trained a Commonwealth Cup winner, he's had plenty of experience, with four wins from seven starts thus far. They include a second Listed score as well as a Group 3 but he was thumped in both the Prix Morny and Middle Park (both G1) at the end of last season. You could argue that he was over the top for them, but it is also not unreasonable to take a less charitable view of those no shows. Perhaps he's not quite at this level.

Jasour was beaten in that same brace of top level two-year-old sprints, and also bookended those heavy defeats with Pattern class wins: in his case he preceded them with a G2 victory and debuted this campaign with a G3, over course and distance in the trial race to boot. That was a notable career best and it's perfectly plausible that he's improved plenty from two to three. This, of course, will be the acid test. His trainer, Clive Cox, has, like Burke, won this race before so knows the formula.

Third to Big Evs and Valiant Force, both 2023 Royal Ascot winners, in the G1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint, Starlust showed there that he could handle very fast ground. He was staying on over that turning five furlongs but has beaten plenty of times (eight, to be exact, from a dozen starts). Moreover, his best form is mostly at the minimum and he looks exposed in comparison with some of his rivals. That said, he does bring the highest official rating into the race, his 114 being earned with a nine pounds hike for an easy handicap verdict last time.

Givemethebeatboys was due to run in that Breeders' Cup race but was scratched by the Santa Anita vets the day before the race, a deeply frustrating experience for all involved, no doubt. Before then, he'd run creditably in the Phoenix and Middle Park Stakes, and holds Elite Status and Jasour on literal analyses of that form. He began 2024 with a Listed win at Navan before just failing to pass the intended but now absent Bucanero Fuerte in a Naas Group 3 last time. This stiff six looks ideal though he'll need to improve a good bit.

Archie Watson has an excellent record at Royal Ascot - three wins last year, just failed in the Coventry over course and distance on Tuesday - and saddles Evade, winner of the 7f Surrey Stakes last time. Trained prior to that Epsom race by Andre Fabre, he'd finished 2023 with a distant view of Rosallion's rump in the Group 1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere. But it was a big step forward on Oaks day, where he was tardy from the gate but showed plenty of speed to move to the front of the field; he then battled gamely while seeming unbalanced on the camber and can arguably be marked up a touch.

Classic Flower runs for Patrice Cottier, who saddled Horizon Dore to run third in the Group 1 Prince Of Wales's Stakes on Wednesday. In the same ownership, this daughter of Calyx has been second on all three starts in '24, all on very wet turf. Her trainer must fancy her to show more on terra firmer, and she did win a Group 2 on good to soft last October. Her form is hard to peg - likely a beat below the pick of her rivals - but she is consistent, could conceivably step forward for fast turf, and her trainer is respected.

The rest of them probably have too much to find but I want to mention two highly progressive runners who wouldn't be total shock winners. Firstly, Stuart Williams trains Pandora's Gift, a filly that has raced exclusively on all-weather surfaces heretofore. Second on her debut as a 20/1 shot, she's won her other four starts, most recently when waltzing away with a Listed prize at Chelmsford. Prior to that she won in a manner rarely seen in a valuable all-weather handicap. She went up 12lb for that win and another 11lb for her Listed victory. If she can translate that level to turf, a further similar bound forward would put her bang there. If.

The twice-raced Kind Of Blue is the other worth noting. James Fanshawe has had some very good sprinters - remember The Tin Man? - and while it's very early to include this colt's name in the same sentence, he looked very good in the second of two novice stakes wins last time. That was good to firm ground on Doncaster's straight track, so no conditions fears, but this is a chasmic class rise. One to keep on side going forwards and it will be interesting, though not wager worthy, to see how he goes in this G1.

This is quite difficult. I want to be against Inisherin, whose ability to lead may be compromised against genuine top class sprinters. Obviously, I expect him to win now. Elite Status made a big jump on figures on his sole three-year-old start and may have matured into a far better model, with similar comments applying to the slightly more lightly-raced Jasour; the latter is a bigger price and appeals as a bit of value at around 6/1. And at Hail Mary prices, I want to take penny flyers on the two fillies, Classic Flower and Pandora's Gift. There are reasons to believe both could step forward a chunk on what they've achieved under these markedly different conditions and, while they might fail badly, the price justifies small interest. Two fillies have won this in its short history so there are no reservations on that score: it's 'simply' whether they'll be remotely good enough!

If I'm wrong about the Sheikh Obaid pair, so be it, but it looks a more open contest than the top two to me...

Suggestion: 80% of a unit win Jasour at 6/1, 5% e/w Classic Flower 33/1 and 5% e/w 25/1 Pandora's Gift

 

3.45 Coronation Stakes (1m, Group 1, 3yo fillies)

Preview by Rory Delargy

Donnacha O’Brien’s Porta Fortuna is arguably more exposed than a few around her in the market for the Coronation Stakes, but she is proven at the highest level and her form stacks up well given she has previous at the track and the likely fast ground suits her ideally.

Porta Fortuna was a decisive winner of the Albany Stakes here twelve months ago, where she impressed with the way she moved through the race before taking it up at the furlong pole and repelling the challenge of Matrika. She was below form on softer ground in both the Phoenix Stakes and the Moyglare Stud Stakes (5¾ lengths joint-third to subsequent Irish 1000 Guineas winner Fallen Angel) but belatedly built on her Royal Ascot win when clocking a smart time in the Cheveley Park Stakes at Newmarket at the end of September, beating Rubies And Pearls by a length and a half on ground Timeform called good to firm.

She then ran a screamer in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies’ Turf on her first try at a mile, and again shaped really well after an absence when second in the 1000 Guineas on good ground. She was forced to go earlier than ideal there in pursuit of Ramatuelle, and that pair gave Guineas winner Elmalka a target to aim at, with the margin between the trio at the line very small. The closing sectional suggesting that the winner was favoured by making her move latest of all.

The pair she split are both respected but I’m more than happy to continue to support Porta Fortuna, who has more than once shown herself to be very game under pressure. The fact that she is proven on track and ground is a big positive and the turning mile should suit better than the straight one at Newmarket given her tactical speed.

Ramatuelle could be considered an unlucky loser at Newmarket with plenty blaming Aurelien Lemaitre for kicking too soon but, while Lemaitre has made a couple of high-profile errors, I thought he gave the Justify filly an excellent ride, maximising her superior speed at a crucial part of the race and almost stealing it as a result. My view is that she barely stays 7f and that she will be vulnerable here where she has a draw in stall one which means she must either be ridden aggressively to get track position, or hope that others give her room which is far from certain.

Elmalka is unexposed and will be fancied by many to progress again, but we saw Notable Speech fail to match his 2000 Guineas effort in the St James’s Palace earlier in the week, and Ascot does present challenges of its own. As mentioned, I thought that while the ground she made up late looked remarkable she happened to be in the right part of the track the way that race unfolded, and I’m not sold on her superiority on the day.

Recommended: 1pt e/w Porta Fortuna @ 7/1 (general)

 

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4.25 Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes (1m4f, Class 2 handicap, 3yo+)

Presented by Sam Darby's "Winning Post Profits" service

This is probably my favourite race of the week and one of the best course and distances to have a bet on in big fields. That’s because there is a strong draw bias that is largely overlooked in the betting.

 

 

The line graph above shows the PRB3 performance by draw. It’s quite clear that the bottom eight or so stalls perform far worse than any higher stall and this trend is repeated with the win and place data too. The lowest seven stalls have won four handicaps on good or better ground whilst the next eleven stalls have won twenty times in the same time period.

The heat map shows draw and pace in combination and this is even more enlightening. There seems to be a fairly significant advantage in racing prominently or in mid-division from middle to high draws. Those run styles/draw combinations have accounted for 14 of the last 20 handicap winners in these conditions.

The only other ‘positive’ draw and run style combination is leaders from middle draws. The worst performing combinations are high drawn front runners and low drawn hold up performers.

It’s relatively easy to explain this draw bias. Big field mile and a half handicaps here can be really rough races where those on the rail often don’t get anything resembling a clear run. They don’t get long to sort themselves out in the straight so the horses that are a bit handier, and on the outside, are well positioned in relation to the lead and are pretty much guaranteed a clear run.

Fortunately, the one I’ve liked for this since the declarations first came out is a prominent racer and drawn high, which should see him to maximum effect. For quick reference, you can use the Geegeez Gold pace map below to see which horses fall into the likely advantaged category here.

 

 

On Tuesday I was strongly against Belloccio in the Copper Horse Stakes because Willie Mullins needed to suddenly improve the horse by 10lbs+ on turf for him to figure. Mullins worked his magic and the horse won well. My gripe with the Mullins horses is we know from previous experience that they are very likely to win or run well. At the same time, they often come here unproven over the trips at which they are running, unproven on the ground and their handicap marks are usually complete guesswork. That’s not the case with Ethical Diamond who ticks all those boxes and also even boasts some of my beloved ‘hot form’.

As a 3yo, before moving to Mullins’ yard he improved for the step up in trip from 10f to 12f, when beating a subsequently 94-rated runner up by 2 lengths giving her 5lbs. That run alone makes him look well treated as he is also rated 94 now himself.

He didn’t really fire over hurdles for Mullins but the ground was testing on all three occasions and he was very highly tried. The return to the flat in May did the trick, though, as he was beaten just a short head over 10f at Leopardstown. The winner has since won a handicap off an 8lb higher mark (admittedly over further) whilst the 3rd has since won a 19-runner handicap (admittedly over shorter).

Ethical Diamond has unfortunately gone up 5lbs for that effort but the form looks strong and he’s almost certain to improve for the step back up to 12f here. He likes to race prominently and is drawn in stall 18 (will probably be 16 by the time the reserves come out) so the only thing not to get excited about is the price. He’s around 5/2 at the time of writing and although that might seem short in a big field handicap, it looks pretty fair given how lightly raced he is and the scope there is for more to come stepping back up in trip.

If the race doesn’t go to Willie Mullins, it still looks more than likely it will go back to Ireland as they have a strong grip on this. Crystal Black is a very progressive rival, winning four of his last five starts. He’s been winning over a mile and also 10f and having that mile pace suggests he might not see out this trip. He’s also drawn in stall 4 which is another reason I'm happy to take him on.

Deakin represents last year’s winning trainer, Joseph O'Brien, and he was a neck behind Crystal Black over 10f last time out. Unlike Crystal Black, he’s very much proven over this trip and should have a good chance of reversing that form here considering the extra trip and also the fact he’s drawn in stall 21 (will be 18 after the reserves come out). He’s unproven on fast ground but has coped fine with good and looks a likely player.

Behind Crystal Black and Deakin last time out was Safecracker and he looks overpriced at 16/1 or so. He’s proven over this longer trip and, crucially, is also proven on fast ground. His run style isn’t ideal for the round course but I wouldn’t be surprised if he too reverses form with Crystal Black.

The home challenge is headed by Shadow Dance, a Roger Varian-trained 4yo who hasn’t run since finishing runner up in the Old Rowley Cup in October, traditionally one of the stronger 3yo races of the season (last year’s renewal has produced future winners yet again). Varian’s horses have generally been running to form first time out this season and Perotto had the same prep before finishing 3rd in Wednesday’s Royal Hunt Cup. He’s likely to be seen to best effect over further in future and I think he might end up poorly positioned so I’d be slightly again him here, but I fancy his chances of winning a decent 14f handicap before long.

La Yakel also reappears here after a break and, given he’s generally looked better over shorter and on softer turf, he is opposable from stall 1. Fairbanks and Sea King are both progressive and in form but stalls 2 and 6 could be a disadvantage for that pair. In any case, Fairbanks probably showed the handicapper too much when winning comfortably on his penultimate start, and Sea King might be better in smaller fields and when fresh.

Bague D’Or was one I liked for the Copper Horse earlier in the week but the main angle with him is his record over 14f on fast ground. Back in trip, I’m far less keen on him.

In summary, I think there is a good chance we see an Irish one-two in this year's Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes. I’m pretty keen on Ethical Diamond and I’m not put off by his price. Deakin is my clear next best and I might even have a little go on the forecast/exacta. I can see Shadow Dance and Safecracker finishing well from off the pace but they might be at a tactical disadvantage.

 

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5.05 Sandringham Stakes (1m, Class 2 handicap, 3yo fillies)

Presented by Josh Wright from "Racing To Profit"

These Royal Ascot handicaps do not get any easier and unfortunately for me it is not the strongest of trends races, not against the sort of pointers I use anyway.

However, it should be noted that the market has been some sort of guide with 13 of the 16 winners sent off 11/1 or shorter ISP, those sent off bigger, 3/251, 25p. Having said that, between 2017-2020, three of the four races were won by 20/1+ shots, two trained by Charlie Fellowes, who isn’t represented this year. Over the last three renewals, those sent off 12/1+ are now 0/65, 6p. It would make all our jobs a little easier if the market continued to be some sort of guide, even though I do like the odd big priced-poke in such races.

Ignoring the market for the moment, there are a couple of pointers which can help. Horses that had two or three runs in the previous 90 days, who’d won or placed at least once on their last two starts and who’d run at Class 3+ at least once in their career, would have found 13/15 of the UK/Irish trained winners (Wesley Ward winning this in 2017, not included in these stats).

If that profile was to hold we'd be left with a long list of 12, but without any pointers to narrow it further other than hoping the market is once again a guide. Those twelve are:

Everlasting, Zaynab, Flight of Fancy, Fair Angellica, Battle Queen, Cat Ninja, Asian Daze, Arisaig, Soprano, Marcella, My Margie, Raknah

Looking at horses representing trainers who have won this race previously can also be useful.

- John & Thady Gosden: Cat Ninja, Mrs Morrell, D Fawless, Strutting
- Charlie (and Mark) Johnston: Arisaig
- Johnny Murtagh: Asian Daze

Cat Ninja, Asian Daze, and Arisaig are the three horses to hit my trends profile and which represent yards who know how to win this race.

I'm going for two each-way bets from the trends list, with as many places as you can find, and hope that once again it's the turn of an outsider to take this race.

Arisaig - 25/1 - EW - Charlie Johnston's filly has been in decent form, and his dad knew what was required to win the Sandringham so hopefully that's rubbed off. Arisaig appeared to appreciate more patient tactics when last seen, having been ridden very aggressively at Newmarket the time before, but still running with credit. She showed an impressive change of gear at Lingfield and won like a horse on the upgrade. It was a performance to think that a fast run mile on this straight course with plenty of cover up the middle could be just what she wants. I always like the booking of Jamie Spencer on this track, where you can almost back him blind each way at the Royal Meeting for interest stakes; and he got the job done again yesterday with a 16/1 > 5/1 SP winner. He booted home 90/1 and 140/1 BFSP winners last year. Spencer will switch Arisaig off, get her in a rhythm and allow her to finish her race - I'd like to think that may be good enough to run into the places here, and who knows after that? Evidently she needs to step up again, but she's going the right way and her relative experience could be worth plenty here.

Soprano - 25/1 - EW - George Boughey's filly has been highly tried in her career to date - straight into Group 3s and Listed contests after her Newmarket maiden win - and this is her handicap debut having finished her juvenile season 'winning' her side in the Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes. She's been running with credit, but often running on in small fields with the leaders having set sail for home. It's her first attempt at a mile, and trying such a trip here is never ideal, but that's built into the price and is arguably a reason for a jolt of improvement. Like Arisaig, she may relish this strong pace, being covered up and running through tiring horses. She's related to a few milers on her dam side, so fingers crossed she appreciates the extra distance. Billy Loughnane was on the scoresheet on Day 1 and I'm hoping he'll be patient and try and thread his way through. The yard is in fine form also. Soprano has a touch of class and if seeing out the trip can hopefully grab a place at worst. As always, if you can grab a place, you can win, so fingers crossed.

Predicting any draw bias on this straight track appears impossible and so far this week it appears to have been riding fairly, more a case of where the sustained pace comes from. These two will have the option of staying up the middle, though Jamie could go low if he wishes and Billy could go high if wanted, so all bases covered there.

It could be the market has this right again, Indelible stepping out of maiden/novice company, but she does look very short to my eyes. Ralph Beckett is 0/10, 0p in the race also, which wouldn't fill me with confidence if wading in, but maybe she's just a cut above these - the market suggests so and given how good Ralph is generally, and especially with fillies, he will surely win this at some point.

I could name ten more horses and get nowhere near the winner, it's that sort of contest! However, Arisaig and Soprano are two lively outsiders who look overpriced to my eyes. Some bookies are paying as far down as eight places, which could help! Good luck with any bets.

 

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5.40 King Edward VII Stakes (1m4f, Group 2, 3yo colts & geldings)

Presented by Gavin Priestley's "Festival Trends" service

For the purposes of the trends we'll overlook the result from 2020 because, due to Covid, the Derby was actually run after Royal Ascot that year.

Traditionally sandwiched in the middle of the Epsom and Irish Derby's the 'Ascot Derby' is a pale shadow of either of those Group 1's, and the Epsom winner hasn't shown up here in a very long time although the Derby second did run, and win, last year. In fact, five of the last seven winners had their last start at Epsom where they had finished 2nd, 3rd, 5th and 10th (twice).

This year we have just two Derby runners taking part: Voyage, who was actually first past the post at Epsom but did so without a jockey having stumbled and unseated Pat Dobbs shortly after leaving the starting stalls, and Macduff who was quietly fancied for the race but pulled too hard and never got himself into a challenging position.

So, as is usual for the King Edward VII we have a field made up of a couple of also rans from Epsom, a few that missed it for one reason or another, a number of lesser lights from the O'Brien stable, a couple of winners stepping up from novice company and a few trainers tilting at windmills hoping to pick up some black type and place money. We do also have a couple of French raiders to spice things up this year, however, including the 5th from the Prix du Jockey Club.

The trends say we need a run as a 2yo, 1-3 seasonal runs, 2-7 career starts and the most recent within the last 12-56 days in a class 1-3 race where they finished in the first four (unless it was the Derby). All of the last nine winners were rated 103+ and, interestingly, 13 of the last 17 winners had yet to win a Group race. It also hasn't paid to get too fancy odds wise recently with four of the last five favourites winning and eight of the last nine winners returning 7/1 or shorter.

We can knock a few out on the trends for one reason or another but there are still plenty of the field that seem to tick all the boxes so I'm simply going to go with that recent trend regarding the Epsom runners and side with the horse that was down the field in the Derby.

MACDUFF did well as a 2yo and rounded off his season with a 4th in the Royal Lodge before shaping with promise in the Classic Trial at Sandown on his seasonal debut. He was a staying on second there behind Arabian Crown and, on the back of that run, he was nibbled at ante post at big prices for the Derby and was eventually sent off at 14/1. Taking a keen hold he never really got going and raced in rear throughout to come home a disappointing 13th of the 16 runners. Ralph Beckett now reaches for the first time cheekpieces in the hope they'll help settle him (Macduff not Beckett!) and I'm willing to give him another chance based on his earlier form. He wouldn't be the first horse to fail to handle Epsom before winning here, and he does seem a big price on what he had achieved before Derby day.

SELECTION: MACDUFF 1/2pt EW 25/1

 

6.15 Palace Of Holyroodhouse Stakes (5f, Class 2 handicap, 3yo)

Preview by David Massey

Pace. It’s important. We’re always told “pace yourself”, whether that’s life in general, or you’re on a three-day bender over a bank holiday weekend. (Please drink responsibly.) Without a certain amount of pace, we’d never get to where we want to go. And if it’s over five furlongs at Royal Ascot, you arguably need a bucketful of it, and that’s what this field has. And in spades, too. Buckets and spades...

Wherever you look here, there’s pace: seven of the nine runners drawn in single figures have led at some point in their last three runs, four from the middle and five from those drawn 20 and above. That’s pretty much half the field that like a view of the front, and unless one of them is an Art Power in disguise - remember him back in 2020, they came here instead of the Commonwealth Cup and he absolutely took them apart with a devastating display of front-running - I cannot help but think this will suit something that can travel in midfield and come through late to win it.

Step forward Blue Storm, who has already taken one big handicap this season after winning the 3yo Dash at Epsom last time out, reversing form with three of those that had finished in front of him at Chester on his seasonal reappearance the time before. He was nicely on top at Epsom late, and this stiffer track should suit even better. A 6lb rise for that is fair, he’s now proven himself in a full field, he’ll travel well in centre pack and has the strength late to play a part. He ticks a lot of boxes for a 14-1 chance, for me, and heads up my list.

Fantasy Master hit the frame in this back in 2021 for Mick Appleby and his Shagraan has a similar sort of profile. You’d be hard pressed to say he was unlucky against Equity Law at Sandown two starts back but I was impressed with the way he travelled there and, once he did find the gaps, he stayed on well for second. I thought at the time this might be the race for him after that effort. He did nothing to dissuade me when third to James’s Delight at Newmarket last time, form that’s already working out, and I think he can reverse placings with second home Two Tribes if given a more patient ride today. Mick seems to have rejuvenated the horse after he left Clive Cox, and I suspect he’s had this race in mind for some time. Stall 19 gives him options, too.

Speaking of Clive Cox, his Symbology is worth a mention at a huge price as well. The negatives aren’t hard to find - she’s not shown much in two starts this year, although in her defence, she’d probably have needed her first start of the year in the Carnarvon Stakes at Newbury after nine months away from the track, and then she got no cover at the weekend when well held in the Scurry Stakes. So, yes, you have to be forgiving, but here’s the figures bit - Clive Cox, when running his handicappers within seven days of their last run, is 9-46, which is pretty good on its own, but even better when the expected winners was just over six.

There’s a lot to take on trust and ideally I’d have preferred another furlong, but at 66-1 we don’t have to pay a lot to find out whether she can bounce back to form on a track for which she’s already shown a liking. (In fact, she’s the only horse in the whole field to have finished in the frame at Ascot previously. Another little plus…)

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And that, dear reader, is that. 28 races covered by seven writers, six of them guests, across four days; and a great smattering of winners already in their midst. Thank you for making geegeez.co.uk a part of your Royal Ascot 2024 experience and, if you like what we do and are not yet a member of our multi-award winning Gold racecards and form tools service, you can take it for a spin for as little as £1 at this link.

Thanks again, and be lucky.
Matt

p.s. What did you think of the previews this week? Did you enjoy them? And what was your personal highlight of the week so far? Please leave a comment below and let us know