Roger Varian’s Royal Ascot winner My Cloud has further Group-race targets after being ruled out of the Summer Mile.
The four-year-old was the winner of the Royal Hunt Cup at Ascot in June, prevailing by three-quarters of a length in a field of 30 to remain unbeaten this season.
He was due to return to the same track to step into Group company earlier this month, but an unsatisfactory scope put paid to that plan and he was withdrawn.
Alternative aims are now likely to be at the latter end of next month, with races both in England and across the Channel in France pencilled in.
“We had to take him out of the Summer Mile because he scoped dirty and he’s had treatment for that,” said Chris Wall, racing manager to owners KHK Racing.
“He’s still not quite ready to race yet, we had hoped he’d be ready to run in a Listed race at Pontefract this weekend, but that’s not going to be the case.
“We’re looking at races at the end of August, we’ve got in mind the Celebration Mile at Goodwood and the Prix Quincey at Deauville at about the same time.
“We hope he’ll be ready for one of those and then we’ll take it from there.”
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/2.80705578-scaled.jpg12802560Geegeez Newshttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngGeegeez News2025-07-21 14:02:122025-07-21 14:02:12Goodwood and Deauville under consideration for My Cloud
My Cloud scooted up the stands side rail to justify favouritism in the Royal Hunt Cup.
Roger Varian’s charge was sent off the 3-1 market leader for one of the betting highlights of the week and was ridden with plenty of confidence by Silvestre de Sousa.
The 30-strong field split into three groups and while My Cloud was clearly in front on his side of the track, Bullet Point was running him close on the other side, with the favourite edging in front of the 11-1 second by three-quarters of a length, with Bopedro taking third at 50-1.
My Cloud had won over the course and distance on his penultimate start and Varian said: “The horse likes it here and we all do, we all enjoy winners at this meeting.
“Patience has been key and he had a few niggles as a young horse. We couldn’t get as busy as we would have liked on the racecourse aged two and three and he only really got going late last year.
“He’s done well this year which is a great team effort at home. There’s a lot of people to thank but mainly his owner who has been the most patient of everyone.
“I was at pains to tell Silvestre not to be in a rush with him, as races on the straight mile can develop late, and this is a horse with a lot of class who moved through the race well.
“We will have to hope he keeps improving and progressing and that was a mighty performance for an inexperienced horse. We hope he could progress out of handicaps one day, but there won’t be a rush to do so.
“He’s had three races now so I think we will regroup, enjoy today and then work out a plan.”
The Windsor Castle Stakes brought day two of the meeting to a close and for the second time the Listed prize went to Eve Johnson Houghton, this time with Havana Hurricane (7-1).
The Oxfordshire-based trainer saddled Chipotle to strike gold 2021 and her latest contender was prominent in the market after supplementing a successful debut at Goodwood with a runner-up finish behind Maximized in the Woodcote at Epsom less than a fortnight ago.
Ridden by Charles Bishop, the Havana Gold colt quickened up smartly to grab the lead inside the final furlong and was well on top at the line, with Dickensian best of the rest in second.
Johnson Houghton’s thoughts immediately turned to her late father, Fulke, who died in February this year at the age of 84.
She said: “I’m missing my dad, he’d have been proud. He’d be the first person I’d ring.
“Didn’t he (Bishop) give him a beautiful ride? He got slated for his ride at Epsom, unfairly, and he gave him an absolute corker; couldn’t be more proud of my jockey.”
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/2.80705492-scaled.jpg12802560https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.png2025-06-18 16:23:382025-06-18 17:40:18My Cloud overshadows the rest in Royal Hunt Cup
It's Day Two, Wednesday, at the Royal Ascot jamboree and we're blessed once more with a magnificent seven races headlined by the Group 1 Prince Of Wales's Stakes for older horses over a mile and quarter. As with each weekday of the Royal meeting, I'm sharing preview responsibilities with a collective of talented and shrewd racing writers. Still, it's me on the kick off legs and we start with some classy young fillies in the...
2.30 THE QUEEN MARY STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 2)
Presented by Matt Bisogno
A massive field of 25 juvenile fillies go to post for the five furlong Queen Mary Stakes. Most have had just one, or perhaps two, runs so form is thin on the ground; virtually all of them will be capable of more than they've shown so far. So how do choose among them? We could try some trends.
The first thing I noticed was a draw angle. In the last ten years, field sizes have ranged from 17 to 26. The winner in 2023 was drawn 26 of 26. The year before she was in 17 of 21; in 2021, she was 21 of 21; in Covid year, of course, the winner was drawn 1 of 18!; and before that, 22 of 25, 16 of 22, 20 of 23, 14 of 17, and 17 of 20. These are 'actual' stall positions after accounting for non-runners.
Last year's winner, Leovanni, exited stall 10, and the second - a 50/1 shot - departed from stall 22 of 24. It probably helps to be high, or at least close to either rail (though, given jockeys tend to race together, that probably still means high). Clear as mud?
In spite of the enormous fields, the first or second favourite has won six times and returned a profit on level stakes.
An American-trained filly has won four times in the last decade, most recently George Weaver's Crimson Advocate in 2023. Karl Burke has won two of the last three Queen Mary renewals, and his three entries were 3rd/5th/7th of 26 in the non-winning year.
The last eight winners all had a prominent run style, and the other two in the ten year trends led.
Five of the last ten winners were unbeaten in one before the race; only the Wes Ward speedball Lady Aurelia, in 2015, had yet to win, and even three outsiders (18/1, 22/1 and 25/1) were last day scorers.
Those are some reasonable angles to go at. The high drawn last day winners are America and Viamarie, both big prices. The top two in the market are Zelaina, trained by Karl Burke for last year's winning owner, Wathnan Racing, and American raider Lennilu, trained by Pat Biancone. Both fancied fillies are drawn middle, which didn't stop Leovanni last year but may be sub-optimal. I'll also throw in Secret Hideaway and Harry's Girl, whose form looks strong.
Karl Burke runs two this time, Zelaina being much the more obvious. As a £650,000 breeze up purchase she's entitled to be fast and she lived up to that billing when sprinting away from her field on debut at Nottingham, eventually scoring by almost three lengths. The time wasn't dazzling and she got a highly efficient ride (finishing speed percentage was 100.85%) but it was visually very impressive: quick from the gate, travelled strongly, pulled clear. She's just not much of a price.
The US filly, Lennilu, started with a win on the slop at Keeneland before shipping down to Florida for a turf stakes race. She showed good early speed there - perenially a feature of American entries at Royal Ascot - and galloped right through the line. That was a flat five around a bend, however, and this is a straight five with a stiff finish. I expect she'll be typically front rank through three furlongs and then who knows? Luis Saez, one of the world's best riders, makes his British debut.
While we're guessing as to the substance of the form with those once raced fillies, Harry's Girl has run twice and winners have emerged from her encounters. Of the two runs, her second in the Marygate has been advertised with the three subsequent runners - having finished 6th, 8th and 9th at York - all winning. But the Marygate winner and third, Secret Hideaway and Love Olivia, the latter being Burke's other entry, also rock up for this dance.
Love Olivia blazed the trail in the Marygate but was spent by the time Secret Hideaway, trained by Adrian Keatley, wore down Harry's Girl (Richard Hannon) in the last strides having been off the speed for much of the race. It's likely the winner is the best of the three and I'm a little surprised she's a longer price than the filly she beat. They're drawn adjacent, in 18 and 19, which is ostensibly a positive for both. It's worth noting that the Marygate winner has won the Queen Mary four times since 2006.
In the long grass - it's a race that has rewarded such boldness on occasion - Viamarie comes from the Kempton poly to the Ascot turf which can kindly be described as an unfashionable route. But she showed a lot of late speed that day having been slowest from the gate. She'd need to improve her start, which she ought to given the benefit of that experience, and she'll be running on late, though perhaps/probably too late.
Brian Meehan has run 26 juveniles at Royal Ascot since 2009, winning twice (including 80/1 Rashabar in last year's Coventry) and notching a second, three thirds and a fifth placed finish. As such, his America is not without hope. She was only third on debut, in a 6f Yarmouth maiden, seeming not to quite get home. The fourth and seventh, as well as America herself, have won since. Dropped to the fairly stiff five furlongs at Bath last time, she showed good mid-race speed to take the lead and ran on gamely. The second won next time. Stall 24 might help her cause.
True Love's form was given an almighty boost yesterday, with her last day conqueror and stablemate Gstaad bolting up in the Coventry. She was only three-quarters of a length behind him, a literal interpretation of which means she's home for all money. But Aidan has not fared well in the Queen Mary: it's one of the few Royal Ascot non-handicaps he's never won.
Society Kiss, a maiden winner over course and distance, and Staya, another punchy breeze up purchase who won her sole start, at Yarmouth, are others to consider in a race where we'll all be wiser afterwards!
Suggestion: Try small win savers on Lennilu at 15/2 and Staya at 12/1, and a slightly bolder each way play on Secret Hideaway at 22/1 (5 places with Sky/PP). Hail (Queen) Mary players could do worse than throw a miniscule dart at America, 40/1 with 5 places. Naturally, the short-priced favourite might beat them all.
3.05 THE QUEEN'S VASE (CLASS 1) (Group 2)
Presented by Matt Bisogno
A baker's dozen is entered for the 1m6f Queen's Vase, Group 2 for three-year-olds. The race was run over two miles prior to 2017 when it also upgraded from Listed class to its current status.
Aidan O'Brien has won half of the most recent twelve renewals, though Illinois's win last year was the Ballydoyle maestro's first since 2020. Ryan Moore has ridden four of Aidan's five winners since 2015.
The longest priced winner since the race changes eight years ago was Kemari in 2021; he returned 15/2 second favourite. The top three in the betting have had the top spot on the podium in a scarcely relenting half nelson since 2003, only Sword Fighter - Aidan's non-Ryan-ridden winner - returning north of 15/2. For completeness, the 2007 winner, Mahler, was fourth favourite when winning at 7/1. The other 20 of the last 22 winners were all top three in the market.
Aloft in 2015 is the only winner since 2002 to start from a double figure stall, exiting 'actual' stall 10 of 13. Five of the last 12 winners were drawn 2-5.
Only two of the last twelve winners were held up, with two - including last year's scorer - making all and five more racing handily (three were mid-division).
So, on recent evidence, we're after a fancied horse from a lowish stall with a bit of tactical speed to hold a position in the front half of the field. The two which most obviously fit the bill are Shackleton and Carmers.
Shackleton is the Aidan/Ryan entry and about as obvious a bet as you will find all week. A son of Camelot, he's stepping up fully half a mile from a couple of ten furlong races where he was outpaced. He ought to have the gears to find a handy slot early from stall three and, though stamina is unproven, connections' fingerprints are all over this one.
Paddy Twomey send Carmers, an inexperienced but highly progressive sort who is two from two, both this season. He started out in a Ballinrobe maiden and followed up in a Navan Listed contest, easily by three lengths - both races so far over a mile and five. So no stamina doubts, some proven class and lots of upside potential. This is a bigger field, though, and a third career start in six weeks. He has a very similar profile to the 2023 winner, Gregory.
Francis-Henri Graffard sends the Aga Khan Estate's Sottsass colt Asmarani across la Manche, and he's another which was unraced at two. In three goes this year, he was second either side of a Saint-Cloud maiden score, most recently in a Group 3. All three runs were on soft or very soft, but it is presumed that the trainer believes he'll improve for better ground. He'll need to on the face of it.
The Gosdens have Devil's Advocate, a staying on fourth in the Dante at York when last seen. He's another for whom stamina is not assured, being by Too Darn Hot, a reasonable miler influence. His damsire is Nathaniel, which offer plenty more hope, and his half-brother was second at a mile and a half. Still not sure! Nevertheless, that Dante run is probably the best form shown so far notwithstanding that many will improve for the longer distance here.
I'm keeping this fairly simple and siding with SHACKLETON, with a small saver on Carmers. I'll let the rest beat me, which they very well might do...
Suggestion: Back Shackleton at 3/1 or bigger. Save on Carmers at 5/1 or bigger.
3.40 THE DUKE OF CAMBRIDGE STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 2)
Presented by David Massey
You have to say that, even with a 3lb penalty to carry for her Dahlia Stakes win, Cinderella’s Dream is going to be hard to beat here.
She panned Elmalka 4½ lengths there and even though the latter is dropping back to a mile, which will help, it’s hard to see how she turns that form around. In any case, that was Cinderella’s Dream merely backing up what she’d shown in two previous starts, and she looks every bit as good at 4 as she did last year. She probably needs no more than a repeat of that Dahlia effort to come out on top, with her nearest rival on ratings, Fallen Angel, looking to bounce back after a lesser effort in the Lockinge. She looked very much in need of the run beforehand and sweated up badly, so can possibly be forgiven, but you’d not want to see similar behaviour today. She’s going to be tried in a pair of cheekpieces after that below par Newbury effort, which might help her cause, but she just has a few question marks over her at present.
Running Lion is of some interest now she drops back to a mile. Winner of this race last year, beating Laurel a ready two lengths, she’s been running perfectly well over further, her second in the Prix de l’Opera at Longchamp on Arc day as good a piece of form as anything she’s shown; but I think she’s best around this sort of trip, rather than further. Her form is very hit-and-miss, so the addition of cheekpieces could be a catalyst for her to return to her best, which would give her a fair chance. Definitely not an each-way bet, but a small saver on her at 8-1? I couldn’t put you off.
One Look keeps progressing with every start and her ½ length second to Porta Fortuna in the Lanwades Stakes rates a very good effort. She tries hard, which I always think is half the battle won with fillies, and might not have finished improving yet. She’s been highly consistent, which isn’t something you can say for many of these, but the one time she tackled good to firm ground was a disappointment, so she does have that question to answer.
Of those at double-figure prices, Soprano, who can’t have it quick enough, is probably the one that appeals most. There’s no doubt she has to take another step forward form-wise, but she at least comes here fit and running well after her win at Kempton in the Listed Snowdrop Fillies Stakes. She’s a keen-going sort and could be vulnerable late, but on what promises to be rattling fast ground, she could be a danger to all if allowed to bounce along on the front end with a soft lead.
Selection: Cinderella's Dream at 2/1
4.20 THE PRINCE OF WALES'S STAKES (CLASS 1) (Group 1)
Presented by Rory Delargy
Always one of the classiest contests of the entire week since being renewed in the late 1960’s, the Prince of Wales’s Stakes isn’t a race to look for shocks, with only two winners at double-digit odds since Lear Spear won at 20/1 in 1999 for David Elsworth and owner Raymond Tooth.
Continuous is likely to go to the front, but it’s far from certain he will make it an end-to-end gallop, as stablemate Los Angeles is at his best when close to the front end himself, and it’s likely Continuous will set easy enough fractions if allowed, with a view to allowing Los Angeles to get to the front early in the straight where he can get his challengers lining up for a fight. He was seen to excellent effect in the Tattersalls Gold Cup last time, leading two furlongs out and battling back after being headed by Anmaat.
He relishes a head-to-head and Ryan Moore would love a repeat of the tactics which saw him win at the Curragh, with Ascot’s stiff finish suiting the strong-staying Los Angeles down to the ground.
Anmaat won the Champion Stakes over C&D in the autumn and was having his first race since when narrowly denied by Los Angeles at the Curragh, and he could come forward for the run, which gives him claims of turning the tables. He travels strongly for all he can take a bit of time to hit full stride and although he was a 40/1 shot when scoring here in the autumn, there was no hint of fluke about the result, and his Group 1 record now reads two wins and a close second from three runs, having also taken the Prix d’Ispahan in 2023. He is a danger if Jim Crowley can keep Los Angeles and Ryan Moore in his cross-hairs.
Facteur Cheval has been placed in six of his 11 starts at the top level, but his only win in those races came in the Dubai Turf at Meydan last year. He was unplaced in the latest running of that race, and may not be quite the force of old at the age of six, so is passed over. Sea The Fire, on the other hand, looked better than ever when running away with the Group 2 Middleton Stakes at York last time, and has been supplemented for this race at some cost. She has place claims, but seven runs at Group 1 level have failed to reap any reward, and that counts against her win claims.
Map of Stars has yet to race on ground quicker than good (according to Timeform) but ran well when second in the Prix Ganay last time and is another with place claims if handling slightly firmer turf. Ombudsman is stepping up in class after losing his unbeaten record in the Brigadier Gerard Stakes at Sandown last time and isn’t the easiest to weigh up. He is hard to dismiss given his largely progressive profile, and is worth including in exotics.
Win: Los Angeles Exotics: Los Angeles & Anmaat (Reverse Exacta)
Los Angeles/Anmaat over Sea The Fire, Map of Stars, Ombudsman (Trifecta Box)
5.00 THE ROYAL HUNT CUP (CLASS 2) (Heritage Handicap)
Presented by Dave Renham
Let me start by examining the 15-year trends for the Royal Hunt Cup.
Market factors
Four single figure priced winners, eleven double figure priced winners, nine of which were 16/1+ and six were 20/1+.
Weight
In terms of weight carried the ideal has been to be at the mid to lower end of the weights. If you work the average weight of the runners each year, horses carrying the average weight or lower have won 11 of the last 15 renewals.
Age
4yos have 10 wins from 184 runners (5.4%); 17% placed.
5yos have 3 wins from 105 runners (2.9%); 15% placed.
6yo and older have 2 wins from 140 runners (1.4%); 9% placed.
4yos clearly have the best record.
Draw
The draw in big field handicaps at Ascot on the straight track can really play a part, but this is the first big field handicap of the week so at this stage there are no strong clues. Looking at the last 15 years of this race, I have collated Percentage of Rivals Beaten figures (PRBs) for different sections of the draw. I have looked at the PRBs for all runners and then focused on those 33/1 or shorter in price, ignoring the ‘rags’. For the record, non-runners have been taken into account, so the draw positions have been adjusted to allow for this. My findings are as follows:
Stalls
PRB (All)
PRB (33/1 or shorter)
1 to 5
0.44
0.44
6 to 10
0.47
0.53
11 to 15
0.52
0.59
16 to 20
0.59
0.63
21 to 25
0.48
0.53
26 to 30
0.49
0.51
It seems that middle draws of 11 to 20 have done best especially those drawn 16 to 20.
Run Style
I have taken a similar approach for run style looking at the PRBs for each group. These are:
Run Style
PRB (All)
PRB (33/1 or shorter)
Led / disputed lead / led group
0.40
0.44
Prominent
0.42
0.45
Mid Division
0.53
0.57
Held up
0.57
0.60
7 of the last 15 races have been won by hold-up horses and they have the best PRB figures too. This is the type of race where a midfield or back of the field sit early is preferable.
Recent form trends
11 of the last 15 winners finished in the top four LTO.
Horses that have won at least once in their last five starts have been twice as likely to win compared to those who have failed a register a win in their last five runs.
Analysis
I backed Volterra a few weeks back, but he has not been declared. Below are what I feel are the main players.
My Cloud – He has never been out of the first two in his five careers starts and is two from two this year. He is clearly progressing and despite being 15lb higher than the beginning of the year there is probably more to come. The price though is short for such a competitive race with a such a big field. Drawn 32.
Fox Legacy – He was a 12-length winner over 10f last year when trained by Sir Michael Stoute and he has switched to the Andrew Balding yard for this season. He won well on his reappearance over 9f at Newmarket and despite being raised 6lb he may have more to come. Tends to adopt a midfield run style which is a positive. He has yet to win at a mile but four of the last eight winners of this race also had not won over this trip. Drawn 11 which should be ok.
Greek Order – Back in the UK after an unsuccessful time in the States, Greek Order has strong claims on his best form. His second in the 2023 Cambridgeshire when trained by the Charlton stable highlights his ability and his potential claims here, especially if adopts his normal hold up style. He is now with Michael Bell who is having his best season by far for many years. I noted money at 70s on Betfair in the not-too-distant past but that was immediately snapped up and the price has just continued to drop and drop. Drawn 30. Based on the current price it is not a bet for me anymore, but I expect a decent run.
For those looking for a huge price that may offer each way value there are two that I can see running well.
La Trinidad – La Trinidad tends to ply his trade in handicaps up North. His record on good to firm ground is four wins and three placed from 12 runs and amazingly he is five wins from six in the month of June. He is now an 8yo which is a negative race trend, but he actually seems to be improving. His two runs this year have seen two decent third placed efforts, and last year he won off 92 and 96 – his two highest winning marks. His hold up style is a positive and looks well berthed in 18. With plenty of bookmakers offering extra places, he may sneak into one of those at big odds.
Epictetus - He was rated as high as 113 in 2023 when trained by the Gosdens and won a Group 3 and was not disgraced in a couple of runs at Group 2 level. 2024 saw him run just twice and both were disappointing. Now with Jamie Osborne he was 5th to My Cloud LTO beaten around 5 lengths on his reappearance in May. He’s down to a mark of 101 so if he comes on for that run then as with La Trinidad, at big odds, he looks to be one for those bookies offering extra places. Drawn in 29 and he is likely to be played late by Saffie.
Suggestion
Half stake on
Fox Legacy e/w at 12/1
Split the other half of the stake into two smaller punts on
La Trinidad 40/1 & Epictetus 50/1 both e/w
Most bookies are going 6 places, 7 with Sky Bet/Paddy Power.
5.35 THE KENSINGTON PALACE STAKES (CLASS 2) (Fillies' Handicap)
Presented by Gavin Priestley
A new handicap introduced to the meeting for the first time in 2021 for four-year-old and upwards fillies and mares. We have just four years of data and I'm wary of using such a small sample size but if we include the first four home in the four runnings it gives us a bit more information to work with.
Looking at these 16 runners we can see that 4yo's won all 4 renewals and fill 14 of the 16 win and places
All 16 win and places went to horses that had run at least 4 times and all 16 had finished top 8 last time out
All 4 winners and 13 of the 16 win and places had raced in the previous 45 days with just 1 placer from 11 runners who had been rested more than 50 days
All 13 of the runners that last raced on the AW have been beaten (3 placed)
The 3 British trained runners had their last run in a class 3 or 4 race and were stepping up or dropping down in distance (from 7f & 1m2f) while the Irish trained winner last ran in a 7f Listed race
All 37 horses that had their last start over a mile have been beaten although 7 have been placed
Using these trends would lead us to a shortlist of fpur runners including a couple of outsiders who last ran 4th and 5th in a Listed race over 10f at Haydock. Francophone is tried in first time cheekpieces and Charlie Johnston's 4yo filly was an easy winner of a handicap the last time she ran over a mile. She hasn't been getting home over the longer trip in her two starts this year and is an interesting contender back over a mile at around 40/1.
The other runner from that Haydock race, Ambiente Amigo, won a Listed race at Nottingham earlier in the season (well beaten 5th won a handicap next time out) and was 13 lengths adrift of See The Fire in the Group 2 Middleton at York but was within a length and a quarter of the highly rated second (113) and third (107) that day. She had led at the two-furlong pole before she, and the rest of the field, were readily brushed aside by the runaway winner and she could appreciate the drop back to a mile. Her trainer puts up a 7lb claimer who has incredibly won on three of her last four rides (including for this trainer) and she's another who could outrun her odds.
Roger Charlton's Arolla split a couple of 107 and 106 rated fillies in a Listed 7f contest at Musselburgh 11 days ago on her seasonal reappearance; she raced prominently there and kept on well through the final furlong. She'd won her maiden over a mile and was a very easy winner of a novice event on her next start so she's another who should appreciate returning to a mile, although a 4lb rise for that Listed 2nd last time means she races off 100 for this which looks a little high to me for her handicap debut.
The fourth filly on the shortlist is Andrew Balding's Miss Information who was a beaten favourite at the Epsom Derby meeting under a 5lb penalty for winning at Newmarket on her start before. She has raced mainly over 7f and was a well beaten favourite on her only try at a mile to date and, while the ground will be no problem, she has struggled when racing off a rating in the low 90's. Her 3rd in a big field big pot 7f handicap at York last August was very decent form that would give her every chance, but with doubts about her getting the trip and her current rating I'm going to pass.
From the four fillies that made the Trends cut I'm going to take a chance on the James Owen 4yo AMBIENTE AMIGO, under her in-form jockey. This filly will go on the ground and, you could also argue, is quite well treated on some of her form earlier in the season. The drop back from 10f is the big imponderable but she's been bang there at the mile before fading out of the running on her last two starts over further. At odds of around 33/1 I'm willing to take the chance she won't be inconvienced by the trip too much.
SELECTION: AMBIENTE AMIGO 1/2pt EW 33/1 (5 places)
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6.10 THE WINDSOR CASTLE STAKES (CLASS 1) (Listed Race)
Presented by Victor Value
The Windsor Castle Stakes concludes Wednesday’s card at Royal Ascot, and I was able to find the winner last year so let's hope for a repeat.
Trends to Note
The ten-year stats (based on 239 qualifying runners) reveal a few interesting patterns:
The market holds up well. Big shocks are rare. Horses sent off at 25/1 or bigger are 0/142, with just 6 places.
Draw bias exists — unlike Tuesday’s Coventry Stakes, there’s a clear edge for those drawn in the first or final quarters of the stalls. Runners drawn in the middle two quarters are 1/125, with 11 places.
Only 4 of the last 10 winners had won on their previous start. Interestingly, last-time-out winners have underperformed by 44% compared market expectations.
Another solid angle: since 2015, all winners had started 9/1 or shorter on their most recent run. Those who went off 10/1+ last time out are 0/46, with 5 placing.
Contenders:
Twenty-four runners go to post but, despite the field size, just five caught my eye.
Rogue Legend made it 2 from 3 when making all at Tipperary 22 days ago. He tops the Racing Post Ratings coming into this, and his form would have been good enough to win the last five renewals of this race. This is his first run on ground quicker than good, but if he handles it, he’s a worthy favourite and the most likely winner.
Old Is Gold built on debut promise (behind Military Code) here by landing the bet365 Two-Year-Old Trophy at Beverley 25 days ago. He travelled well and ran on well and I was taken with his performance. Now running in Wathnan Racing colours and trained by Andrew Balding, who won this race in 2020. Big player.
Aidan O’Brien has won this three times since 2015 and runs two, Kansas and First Approach. Ryan Moore rides Kansas, which looks the yard’s number one. He’s hit the frame on all three starts without winning, but he’s shown plenty of speed. If Moore can settle him in this big field, he’s in the mix.
First Approach beat Kansas at Naas in May, though had fitness on his side. Well beaten in the Group 3 Marble Hill last time (possibly didn’t stay 6f), and Moore siding with Kansas says plenty for me.
Havana Hurricane looked useful when winning on debut at Goodwood and improved again when runner-up in the Woodcote Stakes (6f) at Epsom. He made a bold move 2f out, but his effort flattened out inside the final furlong. The drop to 5f looks a good move. He may come up a little short class-wise but should run well.
Utmost Respect was a 220,000 gns Craven breeze-up purchase I April, and I was impressed with him physically when I saw him prior to his debut at York’s Dante Meeting. He was a clear eye-catcher that day having repeatedly not got any sort of run between the final two furlongs. Once in the clear he hit the line strongly to finish ½ length second to Ballistic Missile. Open to plenty of improvement, and I am hoping it’s significant that Richard Fahey throws him straight into deep end for his second start.
Windsor Castle Verdict:
Rogue Legend’s form is already good enough to win the race, and he might be capable of an even bigger performance. For me he’s a worthy favourite and if you fancy him, I wouldn’t put you off. Old Is Gold impressed with his attitude when winning at Beverley last time and is a big contender. Despite being a three-race maiden, I don’t think we’ve seen the best of Kansas just yet and given his yard’s record in the race, he’s got to be respected. I think Utmost Respect is set for a very big run for a trainer who has won 2-year-old races at Royal Ascot in the past.
Selection: I might have saver on Rogue Legend if he drifts out to 6/1 but for now, I’m with Utmost Respect each way at the 20/1 available with Bet365.
Utmost Respect: 1pt each way – 20/1 @ Bet365 (paying 4 places)
Day Two, Wednesday, at the Royal Ascot meeting sees the quality decibel level eased just a soupcon. But there's still the magnificent Group 1 Prince Of Wales's Stakes around which to build a sextet of supporting skirmishes, in particular a trio of Group 2's, the Queen Mary, Queen's Vase and Duke Of Cambridge Stakes. Add the Royal Hunt Cup handicap to the mix and it's a giddy afternoon of sport, though winners may be hard enough to come by.
Proceedings commence at the usual half-past-two with the...
2.30 Queen Mary Stakes (5f, Group 2, 2yo fillies)
The first two-year-old fillies race of the week is the Group 2 Queen Mary over five furlongs, first run in 1921. Attraction, the 2003 winner, was only the second filly - and the most recent - to go on to 1000 Guineas glory, though plenty of top class sprinters have announced themselves on this stage.
Wesley Ward has won the Queen Mary four times, and three times in the previous seven years, so his Love Reigns, who is favourite, needs close scrutiny. Here's her maiden score over the extended five furlongs at Keeneland:
It's hard at this stage to know what was in behind her that day, though the seventh placed horse has won since from three I could find with subsequent form (other two well beaten). What we do know is that she saw out this trip - half a furlong beyond five - well. And she has a turf pedigree, being by US Navy Flag out of a Pivotal mare. And she looks pretty rapid!
What we don't know is how she's handled the transit from America (usually Wesley's do that well) and, more importantly, how she will cope with a stiff straight track as opposed to a relatively easy turning track. As can be seen from the video, she's fast early - another typical WW runner trait - in a race not overburdened with gate speed. She is expected to lead and there's a good chance she'll still be in front at the finish.
What of the home defence? They may be headed by the similarly unbeaten-in-one Dramatised, who missed the break a touch on her sole start in a Newmarket maiden but was quickly into the vanguard; by the line she'd asserted her superiority by four widening lengths. The second has won both starts since, with the third almost six lengths away from the winner. She's similarly inexperienced to the favourite but brings plenty of speed and a bit of class to the party.
The National Stakes at Sandown has been a precursor to Queen Mary winners in the past, Rizeena and Bint Allayl both doubling up; so Maria Branwell - winner of both starts to date, most recently the National - is interesting. She showed tenacity to score in a big field on her debut before adding a dash of class to further steel at Sandown. Although her winning margin over the favourite that day, Crispy Cat, was only a neck there were fully six and a half lengths back to the third. I like the fact Maria won't be right on the speed early but ought to be close enough to have a crack should the fast gate horses waver up the hill.
Another two-from-two filly is Clive Cox's Katey Kontent. Cox was, of course, responsible for 150/1 bomb Nando Parrado in the 2020 Coventry - but also took the prizes with Heartache (2017 Queen Mary) and Reckless Abandon (2012 Norfolk) - so knows how to prepare a juvenile for the Royal meeting and, indeed, for this race. Heartache had won just a Bath novice on firm ground before blitzing a field of 23 in the Queen Mary - Wesley odds on favourite wilting in second - so it's reasonable to expect CC has KK ready to roll in the QM.
There are other unexposed fillies lining up, including Omniqueen, whose sole run and win was over track and trip, and Lady Tilbury, who has seen out five furlongs as though an uphill finish off a strong gallop is tailor made. A mention also for the Amy Murphy-trained Manhattan Jungle, whose three-from-three record has been achieved entirely in France, sent out from Murphy's satellite yard near Chantilly. That hat-trick was achieved on soft turf but we don't yet know that she won't handle faster terrain.
I've backed 10/1 Maria Branwell, 10/1 Katey Kontent and 16/1 Lady Tilbury already - more juvies in one race than in all the other Royal Ascot two-year-old races put together - but I've not really beaten the market. They're all playable each way with extra places, or splitting a single win unit across the trio. It's that sort of race.
3.05 Queen's Vase (1m6f, Group 2, 3yo)
The Queen's Vase is named after a gold vase donated for the race by Queen Victoria in 1838. It became a three-year-only event from 1987 and was truncated in trip from two miles to a mile and three quarters in 2017. Those recent changes have seen the Queen's Vase emerge as a St Leger trial with both Leading Light and Kew Gardens doing the double in the past decade.
Mark Johnston and then Aidan O'Brien have largely shared ownership of the Vase since 2001, Johnston attaining seven wins up to 2014 and O'Brien recording the same number of victories with the most recent in 2020. The former is without a runner this time while O'Brien saddles just one of his quintet of five-day entries, Anchorage, who was only third choice amongst them at that stage.
Like three of the last seven Queen's Vase winners, and five in total, Anchorage is a son of Galileo but he's not obviously loaded with the requisite stamina for this 1m6f affair. Still, he must have been showing something to be the card played. Good enough to win a mile nursery off 88 last October, he ran a touch flat in the Group 3 Gallinule Stakes over ten furlongs four weeks ago; or perhaps he just needed that first run for seven months. Either way, he was keeping on at the finish which at least offers a sliver of hope that he will see out the extra half a mile of the Vase. Cleveland's recent massive distance move to win the Chester Cup also suggests Team Ballydoyle know how to gauge such things. They know how to gauge most things.
Al Qareem is an improving type and was impressive when making all in a 0-90 handicap at York last time. He kept on well that day and should handle the extra quarter mile with the short straight expected to help, too. Syndicate manager Nick Bradley suggests this is their best chance of a winner all week.
Numerous of these are stepping up in distance a fair whack, and that includes likely favourite, Hafit. He's not won since his debut five runs ago, finishing second or third in each start since. He was outpaced as the 3/10 favourite in France last time when upped to a mile and a half, and connections clutch at further distance and first time cheekpiece straws now. He cost over two million as a yearling but this all looks a bit desperate even if he is the highest rated in the field.
Trainer Charlie Appleby also runs Nahanni, who is turned around quickly after a staying on midfield effort in the Derby 11 days ago. He'd been progressive prior the big day at Epsom and probably ran a little better again there; with stamina and 1m6f winners in the pedigree, he should see the trip out.
It's quite hard to assess the level of Eldar Eldarov's ability: unbeaten in a mile Nottingham maiden and a ten furlong Newcastle novice, this well bred (Dubawi out of a Listed-winning Sea The Stars mare) colt probably beat little when hosing up that first day but he did it in a fast time. And his Newcastle win is working out well enough, too: third placed Honiton has scooted in by nine lengths since; the fifth, Thundering, ran second next time; while the seventh and ninth both won on their subsequent starts.
Perfect Alibi is a runner for The Queen, and is trained by William Haggas. She'd looked a little shy of this level in a couple of mile and a quarter maidens but made all over an extra quarter mile last time when giving the impression she could go further. She might need more than just the three pounds sex allowance to beat all of the boys here, however. Baltic Bird is a Frankel colt who was bashed a dozen lengths by Nahanni on his debut. Since then he's progressed to a neck second and, most recently, a near four length score in a Yarmouth maiden. That's not obviously a stepping stone to Pattern glory but he's trained by the Gosden duo and so has presumably been shining in the three weeks since last sighted in public. Frankie rides.
Trying to project which of these will improve the most, and from what level of current ability they will do it, is as challenging as it sounds. The one with a good starting point in terms of talent, and bundles of upside for both the longer range and scope to progress is Eldar Eldarov and he's my idea of the best guess in the race.
3.40 Prince Of Wales's Stakes (1m2f, Group 1, 4yo+)
The highlight of day two is the Prince Of Wales's Stakes, first run in 1862. Fun fact: there was no Prince Of Wales's Stakes between 1946 and 1967 because there was no Prince Of Wales! The race resumed in 1968, a year prior to Prince Charles' investiture, at which point the distance was changed to its current 1m2f.
This year's renewal is a little light on numbers, perhaps, but it's fair overloaded with intrigue. Runners from France and Japan, as well as the expected Anglo-Irish entries - a couple of which are globe-trotters - make for a fascinating clash of the world order.
The market is headed by a rather more run of the mill horse - in terms of indigeneity at least. Bay Bridge was born and raised on these shores and has raced exclusively here, too; but let that not detract from his ascendant star, marked with panache in the Brigadier Gerard Stakes at the end of last month. There, in what looked a strong field, he sailed five lengths clear of Mostahdaf, himself a progressive chap, with aging rocker Addeybb a further length back.
The visual boys (and girls) were getting a juice on about that performance but one does need to try to pick holes when pondering a large play at a short price. So let's try and poop the party. It is tricky, in that Bay Bridge has now won his last five starts, progressing from novices through handicaps and Listed class to that seasonal bow in Group 3 company. But perhaps the runner up is not quite as good as we thought: after all, though he won a similar race over course and distance in April, that was a muddling three-runner affair; and his only try beyond G3 level was when just about last in the St James's Palace Stakes a year ago. He was only 10/1 that day so better was expected.
Addeybb may have been prepping for a bigger summer target on his first run for seven months, which all of a sudden - while not detracting from the visual performance - raises questions about the underlying substance.
I'm certainly not knocking Bay Bridge, and I hope he wins in style... if the horse I bet doesn't win; because I can't bet BB, who I feel is too short in a field stacked up with proven G1 performers.
Of those storied horses in opposition, perhaps the main interest is with the Japanese star, Shahryar. Winner of the Japan Derby this time last year, he was later third in the Japan Cup before winning the Group 1 Sheema Classic in Dubai. Those races were all over a mile and a half and in big fields, conditions which contrast with this small field ten furlong event: it will be interesting to see whether Shahryar has the dash for the job.
State Of Rest has been a superstar for connections, racking up the air miles with G1 victories in America (Saratoga Derby), Australia (Cox Plate) and France (Prix Ganay). Three Group or Grade 1's all at or around ten furlongs, all in smallish fields, and on a variety of going puts this Starspangledbanner colt in the mix; and he was a touch unlucky not to reel in Alenquer and the front-running High Definition in the G1 Tattersalls Gold Cup at the Curragh last time: he'd have probably won in another three strides. In spite of all that, he has a bit to find on ratings, with the short Ascot straight not necessarily playing to his strengths.
The 2020 Prince Of Wales's Stakes was won by Lord North, who missed the party last season but is back again now. Last seen when dead heating in the Group 1 Dubai Turf, a race he also won in 2021, he's failed to win in his five other races since that Royal triumph two years ago.
Another whose form is hard to accurately peg is French visitor, Grand Glory, Group 1 winner of the Prix Jean Romanet last August. She ran a cracker in the G1 Prix de l'Opera on Arc weekend, falling short by just a nostril on heavy turf. A trip to the Japan Cup elicited a fifth place finish, two spots behind Shahryar and, so far this season, she's beaten the same filly - Burgarita - in both Listed and Group 3 company. Ten furlongs is her trip, she seems versatile regarding ground as long as it's not very fast, and she has a gear change which may be the key requirement (as well as class) in this race.
It's a really tricky race to work out with the merit of so much overseas form hard to fathom. There is no obvious pace angle which further muddies the water. I have backed Shahryar but somewhat gone off his chance since striking the wager, and I'm really not inclined to go in again. There's a decent chance that Bay Bridge just wins, but he's fairly cramped odds given this first step up to G1, and it wouldn't be a total shocker whichever horse wins. In that context, it may be worth lobbing a shekel at either State Of Rest or Grand Glory. Or *takes deep breath* just watching the race uninvested.
4.20 Duke Of Cambridge Stakes (1m, Group 2, 4yo+ fillies and mares)
One of the newer races at Royal Ascot, the Duke Of Cambridge Stakes was inaugurated in 2004 as part of a programme designed to keep fillies and mares in training beyond their three-year-old season. It is run on the straight mile.
Aidan O'Brien hasn't pointed many fillies or mares in this direction and he's yet to fare better than I Can Fly's third placed finish in 2019 from four attempts. That may not stop Mother Earth, who when she's good is very, very good. Examples of that include her straight mile G1 score in the Prix Rothschild last August (soft), her straight track mile second in the Falmouth Stakes at Newmarket (G1, good to firm), and of course her straight track mile win in last year's 1000 Guineas (good to firm). She handles conditions well, then, but her overall form is hit and miss, as evidenced by down the field efforts in the Lockinge last time and the Breeders' Cup Mile four back. On a going day, she has the assets to contend.
Saffron Beach was bought for 55,000 guineas - not a snip but hardly a king's ransom in the context of these equine bluebloods either. She's since netter five grand shy of half a million for her lucky/shrewd (both, in fairness) owners and given them unforgettable days including a Group 1 win in the Sun Chariot Stakes at Newmarket last October. Fourth place in the Dubai Turf last time added another £185k to the kitty and she comes here fresh from the exertions of overseas travel and racing. She's the highest rated filly in the field.
The German filly, Novemba, ran a bold race from the front in last year's Coronation Cup, eventually finishing a two length fourth in that 3yo Group 1. She's not been in quite the same form since, but will probably lead the charge again, a run style not especially suited to this stiff straight mile.
Bashkirova is another Cheveley Park filly, trained by William Haggas this time, and she does have the winning habit: in just six lifetime starts, she's come home in front four times, the latest of which was in the Princess Margaret Stakes at Epsom only eleven days ago. If she's recovered sufficiently on this tight turnaround, she recorded a career best that day and is entitled to continue to improve. Moreover, her midfield run style might fit the race setup though she will probably need to break more alertly than at Epsom. She has a good bit to find strictly on the numbers but is progressing whereas others are largely treading water ability-wise.
The cheval noir (she's actually a bay but you know what I mean) in the field might be Sibila Spain, trained in France by Christopher Head. A winner of four of her eight races, including a Saint-Cloud Group 2 last time out, she stays a little further (has won over ten furlongs) and handles good ground. It's hard to know how she'll be ridden: historically she was a front-runner but she was smuggled into the race from the rear last time and that worked out very well, so I'd imagine she will again be waited with.
Also raiding from France is the Mickael Barzalona-ridden Kennella. She has form over seven furlongs and a mile, most of it on soft ground, including a third in the French 1000 Guineas last May. Her best runs were at a mile and she could conceivably improve for faster turf. In what might be a fairly well run race, her late running style and turn of pace could see her perform better than quotes of 25/1.
The Duke Of Cambridge Stakes is another very difficult race from a betting perspective. Saffron Beach and Mother Earth both have cases to be made for them but neither is particularly consistent. The rest need to bring more to the table, some of them having suggested they can. Given all the question marks, the French horses, Sibila Spain and Kennella, may be worth tiny bets at around 8/1 and 25/1 respectively. But this is really hard.
5.00 Royal Hunt Cup (1m, Class 2, 3yo+ Handicap)
Considered by many to be the toughest handicap puzzle of the entire flat season, the Royal Hunt Cup - first run in 1843, when there was a three way dead heat for second - is a 30-runner cavalry charge down the straight mile. Clearly, it's not a straightforward task to deconstruct a field like this, so perhaps some trendage will assist.
Four- and five-year-olds have dominated the top step of the podium, winning 22 of the last 25 Royal Hunt Cups, and winning all bar five renewals going back to 1971. It is therefore no shock to note that those age groups make up the bulk of the runners, yet they still outperform older horses two to one in terms of runners to winners, and roughly the same in the last 25 years in terms of placed horses to runners. Eleven of the last 15 winners were aged four: less in the book, more to come - you know the drill.
Since the race returned to Ascot in 2006 after its one year sojourn at York only one winner was rated outside of the 93-103 official figures zone. Again, that doesn't remove too many from consideration but it looks faintly material. Hold up horses have a great record in big fields over a mile on the straight track at Ascot, so let's use that to cut to the chase.
Dark Shift is anything but a dark horse, having headed the ante-post betting for some while; and that's because of the strength of his case, naturally. To wit, he has won three of his last four races, two of them here, one over a mile. Meanwhile, his defeat in that sequence was when drawn on the wrong side in the seven furlong Victoria Cup on the same straight piste as this.
Although only 11th of 27, he was fourth of those to race up the centre: held up early, sectionals tell us he made a big move between the two and one furlong poles and couldn't quite see it out under those circumstances. With an extra furlong to travel, the onus should be more on a gradual positional improvement rather than singular acceleration and, with his draw in 15 - bang centre - ought to at least make the extended places frame.
Astro King was second to Real World a year ago and has been largely nowhere since. There was a bronze medal in a big field York handicap at the Ebor meeting amidst the no shows and it doesn't take Einstein's intellect to work out that this has been the target for some time.
Fantastic Fox is less obvious. The son of Frankel won a couple of small field mile races as a three-year-old last term but was seemingly outclassed in the nine furlong Cambridgeshire at season end. Gelded over the winter, Roger Varian's charge has run reasonably well on both spins in 2022, first when midfield but not beaten far at Haydock and then when a staying on third of 15 over the fast nine at Epsom. He looks attractively handicapped off 98 and could be sitting on a big one: he'll be played late.
Varian also saddles the unexposed and impeccably bred Legend Of Dubai: he's a son of Dubawi out of a mare called Speedy Boarding, who was herself a dual Group 1 winner. Legend Of Dubai has had just five races to date, winning his last two, first over a mile and a half and then dropping all the way back to a mile seven weeks ago. In spite of being held up in a small field that day, he waltzed home by better than four lengths; he has class, stamina and more to come.
Irish trainers have won the Royal Hunt Cup twice since 2016, from just ten runners, and my eye is drawn to Bopedro, trained by Jessica Harrington. Winner by two and a half lengths of the 27-runner Irish Cambridgeshire over a mile (good) last summer, he fair surged clear of his field that day after which he seemed to run out of track over seven furlongs next time. Since then, it was a similar story in a couple of Listed contests before what looked like a prep for this in another mile Premier handicap at the Curragh. He's a strong traveller with a bit of class so, while the nine pound hike since his big win is unhelpful, he's priced (28/1) to take a swing at.
Nine of the last 14 winners were returned 16/1 or bigger - all 33/1 or shorter, too - so perhaps we should be tilting at a windmill or two. The Fantastic Fox fits this bracket, Bopedro, too, and so also does Rebel Territory, trained by Amanda Perrett. The trainer won the 2017 Royal Hunt Cup with Zhui Feng and this progressive four-year-old may not be done improving yet. He's prevailed in three of his last four races, including the two most recent, and has a nice knack of getting up late and thus hiding the extent of his ability from the handicapper somewhat. He is yet another interesting runner in a field full of 'em.
There are as many as eight places on offer with some firms. If that's the good news, you've still got to beat 22 runners to get paid on the place! Hold up horses have had the best of it in this straight mile cavalry charge and, with that front of mind, I'll try Bopedrowith only six places in order to get the 28/1 top price. And I'm going to chance the Varian pair, 11/1 Legend Of Dubai and 33/1 Fantastic Fox, as well. The placepot is likely to have at least a dozen more numbers etched on the ticket!
5.35 Windsor Castle Stakes (5f, Listed, 2yo)
Inaugurated in 1839, the Windsor Castle Stakes is the five furlong two-year-old contest in which Wesley Ward first advertised his abilities with fast juveniles to the British racing crowd. It was Strike The Tiger, in 2009, who made us all ask, "Wesley who?" - there is no such uncertainty about the American now, of course, and he is again well represented across the two-year-old races.
Wesley has Seismic Spirit this time, ridden by the brilliant but untried at Ascot, Irad Ortiz, Jr. He's just about the best American rider right now and how he fares on the straight track sprinters this week will be fascinating. This Belardo colt was beaten on debut but must have been showing plenty since to have earned his plane ticket, with his sire faring much better than many expected: he has a couple of juvenile Group race winners on his roster already (Elysium and Isabella Giles) as well as Lullaby Moon, who won the Listed Two-Year-Old Trophy at Redcar in 2020. QED, Belardo can get fast two-year-olds. And so can Wes. A player, though I always wonder about Ward speedballs in the final 100 yards.
There are loads of rapid unexposed babies in opposition, as is the Windsor Castle wont. Let's rattle through a few of them, starting with Little Big Bear, the favourite. He didn't quite get home over six furlongs on debut and, with that experience behind him, was an emphatic three length scorer on his only subsequent run when dropped back to this range. By No Nay Never, he could end up being a very quick horse and is the right market leader.
Far Shot was a fast breezer who sold after his racecourse audition for £160,000. Turned out by Team Gosden and ridden by Frankie Dettori, he has the right connections, and he was a competent if not wow factor winner of his debut. That was on soft ground and it might be that this 'terra firmer' will suit much more. It will need to as he's behind plenty of his rivals on the clock at this very early stage. Like Far Shot, Bolt Action was also a £160,000 breeze up purchase, by first season sire Kessaar. Unlike Far Shot, he was impressive in hurtling four lengths away from a small field at Leicester a fortnight ago. Naturally, he'll step forward for the experience.
A third breezer, this time 'only' costing £90,000, is Chateau, who put a respectable midfield debut behind him when claiming the Beverley Two-Year-Old Trophy in good style. Though the margin of victory was just a neck, Chateau was hemmed in at a crucial stage and did very well to get up, having had to take back and circle most of the field with about a furlong to run. He's miles better than the bare wining distance, as is his trainer with Royal Ascot juveniles: since 2017, he's run eleven two-year-olds at the meeting, notching three winners, a 3rd, and a 4th (of 21).
The filly Union Court is two from two, both at this five furlong minimum, both by daylight and, most recently and under a penalty, by almost four lengths. Those were Class 5 races, however, due to her purchase price of a relative bargain 18,000 guineas (£18,900, a guinea being £1.05, in case you didn't know and were interested), and this is a quantum step up in grade. Who is to say she's not ready for it?
The joint-most experienced horse in the line up is Donnacha O'Brien's Wodao. As with most from the yard, he's taken a little time to figure out this racing lark and he probably wasn't helped by bumping into Norfolk fancy The Antarctic twice prior to seeing off Studio City last time. He's pretty quick but not as rapid as some of these, as well as perhaps not being so open to improvement.
It is quite likely that Little Big Bear 'just wins', and I have backed him to get my stake back - plus the price of a sticky bun. The stake I'll get back if the jolly wins, is on Chateau, who I'm chancing each way. It will not be sticky buns, but cream cakes if the latter prevails: Chateau for the gateaux, you might say (you might also say, "crowbarred lame gag", and I'd fully accept that!)
What else but Chateau could one back in the Windsor Castle?! Groan, let's move on, rapidement, to the nightcap...
6.10 Kensington Palace Stakes (1m, Class 2 Handicap, 4yo+)
A brand new race last year, The Kensington Palace Stakes is a round mile handicap for older fillies and mares. As with most of the handicaps at major festivals, it is likely to be the case over time that unexposed horses - those with fewer runs from which to reveal their ability to the handicapper - will prove advantaged. With that in mind I'm siding with the four-year-old brigade, mindful that such half-cooked folly may have jettisoned the entire podium without further consideration!
Last year's winner, Lola Showgirl, was out of trouble in front from start to finish - and, in a field of 18 or so, a trouble-free passage will be needed by all aspirants. One who got too far back was Roger Varian's Waliyak, eventually running on for third, and connections go again this time with Mobadra. Lightly raced after just five starts, including two second places and two wins, this Oasis Dream filly showed good speed over Kempton's seven furlong oval when last seen in November 2021. She's entitled to have improved for another winter break and, if fit enough on her annual bow, can be involved.
The Joseph O'Brien-trained Haziya is favoured at time of writing. She was last seen running on into third in a huge field Premier Handicap at the Curragh four weeks ago, and had previously won a big field Leopardstown handicap; both of those races were over a mile, the win achieved on a turning track. If she hasn't already used up her luck in running vouchers, she'll go close.
Ffionis 8lb higher than when second in the race last year primarily because she comes here off the back of a win on her 2022 debut. That was on soft ground over seven at Chester but it was good to firm at Ascot a year ago so she should handle any terrain. She's also versatile tactically, having won when held up at Chester but previously scored with a prominent run style and when making all. She's a super consistent filly - three wins, four seconds and two thirds from eleven races - and ought again to give it a good go. She's 16/1 and that, each way with five (or more if you can find them) places, will do.
Good luck if you're playing this one.
*
And that brings us to the two-fifths point of the week, but half way on the geegeez previews with yours true traditionally too cream crackered after going through 28 races to face the Saturday card. It could well be that that comes as a blessed relief by then!
It would be nice to think that the Royal Hunt Cup was named after the Danish prog-rock band, but as the race was started in 1843 and the band more than 150 years later, that’s clearly not the case. Read more
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.png00IanShttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngIanS2013-06-19 09:05:132013-06-19 09:05:13Race Histories 11: The Royal Hunt Cup
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