Tag Archive for: Ruth Carr

Stat of the Day, 20th June 2020

Friday's pick was...

4.25 Lingfield : Tabaahy @ 7/2 BOG 3rd at 18/5 (Slightly slowly away and held up towards rear, ridden and quickened over 1f out, never nearer)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

5.35 Ripon :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


Highland Acclaim @ 6/1 BOG

...in a 13-runner, Class 6, A/W handicap for 4yo+ over 6f on Good to Soft ground worth £2,782 to the winner... 


This 9yr old gelding is clearly not the force he used to be, but this veteran of 109 previous contests proved he wasn't finished with a first win at just the third attempt for his new trainer last time out.

That was just over three months ago at Lingfield, but he now reverts back to the type of race where he has enjoyed most success in the past : a 6f Flat handicap, where he converts a career record of...

into this in Flat 6f handicaps at odds of Evens to 13/2...

It would have been convenient if any of those 6 wins had been here at Ripon, but none of the 14 races were at this venue, but not to worry, as trainer Ruth Carr is one of the trainers in my saved Query Tool angle for Ripon. She's one of seven trainers I look out for here, because blindly backing her handicappers here over the last three seasons has resulted in...

from which, she is...

  • 13/84 (15.5%) for 128.38pts (+152.8%) with male runners
  • 13/74 (17.6%) for 138.38pts (+187%) in fields of 6-16 runners
  • 13/72 (18.1%) for 140.38pts (+195%) in races worth less than £13k to the winner
    (combining these three stats above looks a logical progression, so see below)
  • 8/46 (17.4%) for 29.18pts (+63.4%) over this 6f C&D
  • 8/35 (22.9%) for 57.49pts (+164.3%) in 4yo+ contests
  • 8/33 (24.2%) for 10.92pts (+33.1%) at odds of 5/2 to 15/2
  • 7/52 (13.5%) for 105.2pts (+202.3%) with James Sullivan in the saddle
  • 3/15 (20%) for 17.75pts (+118.4%) on Good to Soft
  • and 3/13 (23.1%) for 19.75pts (+152%) in June

I suggested combining the first three sets of data and this tells us that male runners competing for a top prize of less than £13k in a field of 6-16 runners are 13 from 64 (20.3%) for 148.38pts (+231.8% ROI) profit at Betfair SP and these include winners at the following strike rates...

  • 30.8% (8 from 26) at 5/2 to 15/2
  • 27.6% (8/29) over this 6f C&D
  • 27.6% (8/29) in 4yo+ contests
  • 25% (3/12) in June
  • 21.4% (3/14) on Good to Soft
  • and 18.9% (7/37) for jockey James Sullivan...

...pointing towards...a 1pt win bet on Highland Acclaim @ 6/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.10am Saturday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 5.35 Ripon

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Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!