I don’t know how Finian’s Rainbow’s lad slept on Wednesday night. If I had been sitting on his betting slip I don’t think I would have managed a single wink. By the close of racing on Wednesday, the lad, an Irishman in his late 40s, had seen Sprinter Sacre (8/11 in the Arkle), Simonsig (2/1, Neptune Novice Hurdle), Bobs Worth (9/2, RSA Chase) and Finian’s Rainbow (4/1, Champion Chase) go in. Read more
Ryanair Chase 2012 Preview, by Ben Aitken, Narrowing The Field
What do all 7 previous Ryanair Chase winners have in common?
They all had a Dosage Index (DI) score of between 0.60 & 1.46 and a Centre of Distribution (CD) between -0.06 & 0.33.
It’s a relatively narrow zone to fit into but all 7 winners do indeed fit into that band. Admittedly 2007 winner Taranis only has 6 points in total (I usually prefer 8 points or more for analysis purposes) but even taking that into consideration he still fits snuggly into the optimum zone.
Don’t believe me? Take a look for yourself –
We have only had 7 renewals of this race to date but already we are witnessing a strong emerging trend on the Dosage side of things.
As some of you may be aware Dosage is a tool I have used to ‘Narrow the Field’ for a number of years now and it’s clear to see from the above table that the Ryanair chase is starting to offer a number of strong pointers based on this angle.
Using the above information here are the Dosage parameters I will be using to ‘Narrow the Field’ for the 2012 renewal –
6/7 had 8 points or more in their DP
5/7 had between 8 & 18 points in DP
6/6 had a DI of between 1.46 & 0.60
Majority Range: 0.60 to 1.46 - 100% of winners
6/6 had a CD of -0.06 or above
6/6 had a CD between -0.06 & 0.33
Majority Range: -0.06 to 0.33 - 100% of winners
But how does this all translate to the 2012 Ryanair Chase?
Well using the above trends I then split the field into 3 groups – probable, possible and unlikely winners (based on Dosage).
Looking at the main protagonist for this year’s race here is how I see the split, based on current entries –
Probable winners (based on Dosage)
An interesting split I’m sure you will agree; joint 2nd favourites RUBI LIGHT and SOMERSBY slipping into the ‘red zone’ certainly shakes things up a bit.
I don’t use Dosage as a tool in isolation; I actually combine the angle alongside other analysis methods, namely extended trends research. One of the most prevalent trends for this race is the fact that all 7 winners had previously scored at the track.
If we concentrate on the contenders with the strongest Dosage credentials which of the ‘green zone’ runners pass this test?
I obviously take in a number of other considerations before fully pinning my colours to any mast but this is one method I use to get an early picture of who is looking good for their indented festival target.
NOBLE PRINCE looks a worthy favourite at this stage and we can take it he will be fully primed for what has been his season long target.
We all know ALBERTAS RUN loves this place but, perhaps rather strangely, connections seem keen on a Gold Cup bid rather than a hat-trick bid in this contest.
GREAT ENDEAVOUR has proven his liking for this track, and indeed the festival, and I would not be surprised to see a big run from the 8yo.
TRANQUIL SEA is one I have often fancied for this assignment but the facts are he is unlikely to get his favoured soft/heavy ground and with that is probably also an unlikely runner.
CAPTAIN CHRIS is the one that really intrigues me for this race. I have felt for some time now that this contest would be ideal for last year’s Arkle winner, if only there was a way of convincing trainer Philip Hobbs of the same thing…..
If you would like to know more about the Dosage method in general then I am currently giving away an ‘Intro to Dosage’ guide as well as a FREE copy of my 2010/11 Narrowing the Field’ book (PDF version) to all sign-ups to my web-site’s FREE updates list - www.narrowing-the-field.co.uk (select the 'Home' tab from the menu there, and then opt in on the right hand side).
Regards – Ben (NTF)