Tag Archive for: Salisbury Racecourse

Racing Insights, 30th September 2021

Thursday's feature of the day is full access for all readers to the Instant Expert tab on the racecards. This is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards.

The reason? It has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view.

The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating.

The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

And every Thursday we make this open to all readers for all races, including our free ones, which will be...

  • 2.15 Clonmel
  • 2.35 Warwick
  • 4.42 Salisbury
  • 4.50 Bellewstown
  • 5.30 Chelmsford
  • 7.30 Chelmsford

And today's piece takes us to Wiltshire, because not only is the 4.42 Salisbury the best of the above half dozen races, but it also features soft ground, which tends to really affect the outcome of races. The race itself is a Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over 1m2f and the following eight (hope it stays that way for E/W bettors) runners will be aiming to land the £10,260 first prize...

King Carney looks the weakest here based purely on recent results, as he's the only one without a win in his last five. Rebel Territory has placed in all of his last five and is also our only LTO winner.

Majestic Dawn is the positive for class movement, dropping down from Group 3, whilst both March Law and Rebel Territory are up one level here with Prince of Harts moving up two from Class 4.

King Carney is making a debut for his new yard and Poet of Life makes just a second handicap start. The latter is one of five three year olds getting a 5lb weight allowance.

Majestic Dawn ended 2020 by making all in the Cambridgeshire, getting home by the best part of five lengths at odds of 40/1. That put his handicap mark up by 11lbs for 2021 and although beaten twice in this grade off that new mark, he hasn't been disgraced and most recently was only 3.75 lengths off the winner in a Group 3 on soft ground at Haydock and both horses ahead of him that day have since been runners-up in subsequent Gr 3 contests. Mohammed Tabti rides him here and he's been goin‌g well on unfancied and his 7lb claim effectively makes this horse just 3lbs worse off than that Cambridgeshire romp. His yard is also in fine form...

King Carney looked like he might be something when landing a soft ground Listed race as a 2 yr old in October 2019, but hasn't kicked on at all from there and was beaten by 10 lengths at Nottingham last time. He hasn't been seen for 130 days, so might well need the run on yard debut for Tony Carroll, but I'm sure his jockey will be doing her best to continue her good record at this venue...

Just Fine finally landed a handicap at the fourth time of asking back in July under today's jockey (who is 5/20 in hcps here since 2017), but was raised 9lbs for the win leading to him finishing last of four at Goodwood a month ago. Has ability, but work to do here, even if...

Poet of Life didn't run as a 2yo and is the least experienced/exposed in this contest after just four outings. Mind you, this son of Frankel has two wins and a place from those four, so he's clearly started well, even if the good results were at Class 4/5. He tackled this grade for the first time at Sandown almost six weeks ago and went down by five lengths over this trip on good ground. Both wins came on good to soft, so he might prefer conditions here.

Lord Protector won his sole 2yo outing and kicked off this season by completing the hat-trick via wins over today's trip at Windsor (C5, gd) and here at Salisbury (C3, soft). Has found life a bit tougher up in class and weight, but has rested for 12 weeks and conditions should be good for him here, plus...

March Law was a runner-up in a soft ground Listed race over 7f last season but was only 4th of 5 on handicap debut at this class/trip at Beverley last month. that said, he was coming back from a break of almost 14 months and it was good to firm ground. He was only beaten by half a length over 1m3f on the poly at Kempton last week, but how he'll fare at this trip on soft ground remains to be seen, but yard & jockey do work well together...

Prince Of Harts had a poor 2020 finishing last of 8 and last of 6 in his only two efforts and hasn't really set the world on fire this season either. Three mid-division finishes were followed by a win by a neck at Class 4 before finishing 6th of 13 last time out. Up two classes here, I see him nearer last than first.

Rebel Territory carries bottom weight here and despite being raised 6lbs today, still receives weight all round. His last run saw him win a Class 3, 1m1f handicap on soft ground at Goodwood after a string of decent (3223) efforts. This will be the best race he's been entered for and he's on a career-high mark, but form is good, he likes soft ground and his jockey is hot right now...

If I was to stick my neck out at this point, I'd say it was a race of two halves to use a cross-sports cliché, as in I think half the field have a good chance here and the other half probably don't so far. At present, I'm most interested in (alphabetically) Lord Protector, Majestic Dawn, Poet of Life and Rebel Territory. I've got it in my head that they should be Ok with conditions, but it's always better to deal in facts, so let's consult 'feature of the day', Instant Expert...

All bar Poet of Life have some kind of form on soft ground, but Poet faces soft for the first time. He is however, 2 from 2 on good to soft, so we're not ruling him out on the ground conditions. We've four Class 2 placers in our midst and Majestic Dawn/King Carney probably have the best records but the latter's form is from over a year ago and beyond. Lord Protector is 1 from 2 here (also 3rd of 7), but two failures from Prince of Harts aside, this is new territory for the rest of the field. My preferred four have the best place strike rates for this trip with Lord Protector faring best, but like all those with a flat handicap win, he's carrying more weight than his last success.

After seeing those stats, I'm still inclined to believe that my preferred four should be the first four home. This quartet are drawn in stalls 3,4,5 and 7 and the draw analyser for 1m1f to 1m2f on good to soft and soft here says that...

...of my four, those in stalls 4 & 5 (Majestic/Poet) might be best off. Using the draw analyser under the same parameters, the numbers tell me that you essentially want to be up with the pace, if not setting it...

Based on how this field has raced in their last four outings...

...March Law looks the most likely to set the pace with Majestic Dawn and Lord Protector seeming to be the ones who will chase him (hopefully into submission) from the off.  The draw stats weren't massively skewed to any particular area of the stalls, but the pace stats clearly defined how to race here, so when we combine pace and draw...

...then I'd say that of my four that Majestic Dawn and Lord Protector come out on top.

Summary

I nailed my colours to the mast quite early on and chose a half of the field (Lord Protector, Majestic Dawn, Poet of Life and Rebel Territory)to side with and I'm still happy with my decision. Based on everything above, I'd say the first two named of my quartet appeal to me more than the second pair. Lord Protector and Majestic Dawn were by the best suited on pace/draw, both will be fine on soft ground, the former has the best results in this race at this trip, whilst the latter is a group horse dropping into a Class 2 handicap.

There probably won't be much between the pair, but I'm siding with the 8/1 Majestic Dawn (looks a huge price to me) ahead of the 7/1 ( a bit skinny in my opinion, I was expecting/hoping for bigger to go E/W) Lord Protector.

As for third place, the progressive Rebel Territory (6/1) might just have too much for the 10/3 fav Poet of Life. Be one hell of a tricast/trifecta if my three can beat the fav : fingers crossed!

 

 

 

 

Stat of the Day, 11th September 2020

Thursday's pick was...

3.25 Chepstow : Under Curfew @ 9/2 BOG 3rd at 9/2 (Raced keenly, chased leaders in centre, led over 1f out, headed close home, lost 2nd at post)

Friday's pick runs in the...

5.00 Salisbury :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Julie Johnston @ 7/2 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 3,  Flat Handicap Nursery for 2yo fillies over 6f on Good ground worth £9,704 to the winner...

Why?...

We start with the unique Geegeez interactive racecard...

...and a 2 yr old filly (obviously) who has won twice and placed twice in her five outings beyond 5 furlongs, only failing to make the frame on a three-length defeat at a higher grade at Goodwood six weeks ago. She's 1152 at 6f, has a win and a place from two good ground runs, is 131 at 7-28 days rest and tops the Geegeez Speed ratings today.

Jockey Jack Mitchell's 12-month record here at Salisbury is shown above, whilst over the last 16 months, his numbers here are...

including of relevance today...

  • 7/25 (28%) for 15.94pts (+63.8%) in races worth less than £10k
  • 5/13 (38.5%) for 2.35pts (+18%) at odds of 4/1 and shorter
  • 4/12 933.3%) for 15.81pts (+131.7%) on 2 yr olds
  • and 3/13 (23.1%) for 22.59pts (+173.8%) on female runners...

...whilst trainer Mark Johnston is also no slouch around this neck of the woods either. He doesn't actually send many runners here, but they do well enough for at least a second glance, as since 2014, they are...

with a near 1 in 6 strike rate producing a yield just shy of 10%. A satisfactory return for a long-term investment, I suppose, but it's not sexy or exciting, is it? So where should we focus our Johnston/Salisbury betting, Chris?

Well, you could stick to 2 year olds running at Classes 1 to 3, sent off at Evens to 16/1, who are...

...which almost doubles our strike rate, multiplies our profit more than fives times over and also includes of note today...

  • 5/13 (38.5%) for 30.18pts (+232.2%) in fields of 5-10 runners
  • 4/7 (57.1%) for 12.09pts (+172.7%) were placed LTO
  • 2/7 (28.6%) for 22.46pts (+320.9%) at Class 3
  • and 2/6 (33.3%) for 20.65pts (+344.2%) over this 6f C&D...

...whilst in fields of 5-10 runners, horses who made the frame LTO are also 4/7 (57.1% SR) for 12.09pts (+172.7% ROI), including a win and a place from two Class 3 efforts and a win and a place from two over this 6f C&D...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Julie Johnston @ 7/2 BOG as was widely available at 7.45am Friday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 5.00 Salisbury

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!