Tag Archive for: Salisbury Racecourse

Racing Insights, Tuesday 11/06/24

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Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREENis good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBERis quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
REDis not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!

And this how The Shortlist looks for this Tuesday...

 

...with the first two of immediate interest along with our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are as follows...

  • 3.02 Salisbury
  • 5.15 Sligo
  • 6.00 Wetherby
  • 7.45 Sligo

The highest-rated of the UK races above is a Class 4 maiden and whilst I've no issue with Class 4 contests, I'm not a fan of maiden races and it's a good job I've no issue with Class 4 racing, as that's as good as it gets on Tuesday in the UK. I've selected the most valuable Fkat race in that grade for my column, as we now turn our attention to the 5.07 Salisbury, a 12-runner, Class 4 (obviously!), 3yo+ fillies' flat handicap over a right-handed 1m2f on good to firm ground...

...where this relatively inexperienced (just 62 total starts)field boasts three LTO winners in the shape of Elladonna (who is two from four), Quietness and bottom-weight Pratigya, whilst Glimmer of Light, Miss Bielsa and Xiomara all made the frame. Ciara Pearl has won three of her last four and Big Time Bridget, Meleri & Alhattan have all won at lest one of their own last four, giving us a fairly competitive race for the grade.

Elladonna, Quietness, Switchel, Glimmer of Light, Miss Bielsa, Xiomara, Frankelian and Pratigya all step up a level from Class 5, but Bigtime Bridget last raced in a Listed contest. She now wears a tongue-tie for the first time, whilst Switchel is now to be tried in a hood on her return from almost seven months off track and she's not the only one running after a break as Glimmer of Light and Frankelian have been off for 175 and 251 days respectively.

Xiomara has only raced in handicap company once before, whilst it's debut day for Bigtime Bridget, Glimmer of Light, Miss Bielsa, Frankelian and Pratigya. Elladonna was fifth of twelve over course and distance here on debut just over a year ago and she's the only one in this field to have raced at Salisbury before, but she has won over this trip in the past, as have Ciara Pearl, Meleri and Miss Bielsa.

Unfortunately with an inexperienced field, Instant Expert doesn't show a stack of data..

...from a win perspective, especially as the field have just 13 wins between albeit at a reasonable strike rate of near enough 21% overall. Obviously the place stats can't conjure up more races to cover, but they do give us a little bit of meat to add to the bones from above...

...with Quietness and Ciara Pearl probably the to best suited off limited data. Meleri's best work has been on slower ground at Class 5, but she certainly gets the trip; Pratigya makes a turf debut here after three A/W outings and these two are drawn widest of all today and the draw stats would initially suggest that this is an advantage...

...but closer inspection says there's very little in it really with those drawn centrally faring slightly worse on both win and place for some unknown reason. A slightly clearer picture emerges when we look how those races were won, as hold-up horses have really struggled to win...

...whilst racing prominently and/or leading has been the best way of making the frame, which based on the field's most recent efforts, probably isn't great news for Xiomara and Miss Bielsa...

...and whilst Elladonna and Alhattan head that graphic, there's actually no obvious out and out pace maker in the field, so it will probably land at their feet to take it on or maybe Glimmer of Light/Frankelian?

Summary

Sadly, we haven't gleaned much from the toolkit today (we are human after all!), but based on the above, form and my own personal feelings/thoughts, the three that I'd take against the field here would be Elladonna, Alhattan and Ciara Pearl in that order, but based on the prices from Hills at 3.20pm...

...I'd suggest that Ciara Pearl might be a good E/W option.

Racing Insights, Thursday 16/05/24

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 2.05 Limerick
  • 2.20 Perth
  • 3.05 Limerick
  • 3.15 York
  • 3.30 Salisbury
  • 8.00 Clonmel

...but I'm going to leave those alone and have a look at the highest-rated handicap on the Salisbury card, the 2.30 Salisbury. It's a 12-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ flat handicap over a right-handed 1m6f on soft ground...

Rathgar is the sole LTO winner on display here (Pawapuri did win her last two on the Flat but has been hurdling lately and was 6th LTO), but Circuit Breaker, Torcello, Duke of Verona and Ellerton all finished third on their last starts. Hurtle Wallop is a three-race maiden but all his rivals bar top-weight Alright Sunshine and Ellerton have at least one win in six; the former is winless in nine and had refused to race in his last two, whilst the latter is on a seven-race losing streak.

Only a third of this field (Alright Sunshine, The Goat, Torcello & Duke of Verona) raced at Class 3 last time around, as Circuit Breaker (on yard debut here), Kyle of Lochalsh and Pawapuri (second handicap start today) all drop from Class 2, whilst LTO winner Rathgar joins Ocean Heights, Ellerton (also on hcp debut today) and bottom-weight Military Tycoon is stepping up from Class 4. Handicap debutant and three-race maiden steps up two classes here, which is interesting if nothing else.

Most of these have had a run in the last two months and Ocean heights should be OK after 75 days rest, as should Pawapuri but at 223 days off since last refusing to run, Alright Sunshine is a negative here. He is, however, one of just five runners along with Kyle of Lochalsh, Rathgar, Duke of Verona and Military Tycoon to have won over this trip and the latter is our sole course and distance winner. Torcello has also won here previously, landing a 1m2f maiden on his only previous visit. That was just his third career start, some 52 races ago back in July 2017 and his more recent relevant form looks (courtesy of Instant Expert) like this...

...where on a fairly sparse looking graphic, it appears that he might relish the conditions. There are3 clearly more negatives than positives above and my main worries from this set of data are the win percentage over this trip for Alright Sunshine, the +15lb for Kyle of Lochalsh from his last Flat win, although he is only 6lbs than his A/W win two starts ago and Duke Of Verona could have done better at Class 3. The place stats say that he only made the frame in one of those five defeats too...

...but Circuit Breaker now enters the party, as does Rathgar to a lesser extent.

Unusually for a race beyond a mile and a half, there does appear to be a slight advantage from the draw with those drawn lower appearing to fare best...

...but I'd tread carefully here. The draw really shouldn't be a massive factor here and the sample size is very small, but the numbers are what the numbers are. It's a little difference with pace, as race tactics are important at all distances and that small number of races above have suited front-runners best of all...

...so if we can find a low-ish drawn front-runner, we might well be onto something. We already know the draw, so if I arrange the field in draw order and show you how they've approached their most recent races...

...we should probably focus on The Goat, Circuit Breaker, Torcello and Pawapuri. Ocean heights and Ellerton are probably hoping to set the pace but they're coming from wide and the former is on turf debut and the latter on UK debut.

Summary

It pains me to end up highlighting a favourite, but I think I like the 11/4 Pawapuri here, although not enough to back her. Those odds are a little short for a horse who hasn't raced on the Flat since landing a Class 5 maiden at Yarmouth in September 2022, even if she did win a heavy ground Listed hurdle at Christmas. So whilst I think Pawapuri might be the best horse on paper, I'm inclined to lean towards Circuit Breaker who comes here in decent form, scored well on the place side of Instant Expert and will be up with the pace.

Circuit Breaker was priced up at 5/1 just after 5pm on Wednesday, which I think is very fair and offers more value than Pawapuri. As for the other two who'll be racing in advanced positions, I'm not over keen on The Goat who has been disappointing for a few runs now, but Torcello might well roll the years back and outrun his 12/1 ticket on his ay to a top four finish as my E/W pick. One other of interest who might come from off the pace is LTO winner Rathgar, who is in good nick and drawn well. He has Pawapuri immediately next door and might well get a tow into the race. If that does happen then 8/1 E/W might begin to look generous.

Racing Insights, Thursday 17/08/23

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Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 3.40 Salisbury
  • 4.10 Salisbury
  • 4.35 Leopardstown
  • 6.30 Windsor
  • 8.05 Leopardstown

And although the Racing League is at Windsor on Thursday, the best of the UK races from the free list, despite having a small field, has to be the 4.10 Salisbury, a 6-runner, 3yo+, Group 3, Flat contest over a straight mile on good ground...

This initially looks like two races in one, with me agreeing with the early market in suggesting that the winner and placer(s) come from Regal Reality, Mighty Ulysses and Embesto, whilst Dancing Magic looks out of his depth, despite a 6lbs weight allowance, but let's have a closer look at the whole field...

REGAL REALITY is now 8yrs old and won a Group 3 race last time out, meaning he's now won one in each of the last six years. He won this race back in 2020 making him the only course and distance winner in the field and if not troubled by a 75-day absence, should be right in the mix despite a 3lb penalty for winning the Diomed at Epsom.

CHICHESTER makes a debut for the Johnston yard two months after his last run for Keith Dalgleish, which saw him win a Listed race at York. He's in good nick with tewo wins and two runner-up finishes from five runs this year, but it has to be said that his best form is at Class 2 and on the A/W. Was well beaten in a Gr3 at Sandown two starts ago.

MIGHTY ULYSSES won a Listed race at Newmarket last July thre weeks after finishing closer than 5th of 11 might suggest in the St James's Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot. He was, in fact, only 0.8 lengths behind the winner in a blanket finish where two lengths separated 1st and 7th. Was well beaten in a Gr2 race at Ascot a month ago, but can be excused on his first outing in 11 months. He should come on for that run as he drops in quality and wears cheekpieces for the first time.

POGO is a keen front-runner who made the frame in three group 2 races and won twice at Group 3 in a sustained run of form from August '21 to July '22. He was a runner-up another Gr2 this time last year, before winning one at Newmarket in October, but clearly needed the run when 10th of 12 at Ascot in June and was only 3rd of 6 at Newmarket last time out. Much will depend on whether he's allowed to dominate.

DANCING MAGIC is a 9-race maiden whose best effort was on his third start when a runner-up in a Listed event at Haydock almost a year ago. This will be his eighth attempt at winning a Class 1 contest and based on his 5th of 6, beaten by 9 lengths, in a Listed race at Newbury last month, he won't be ending the day in the winners' enclosure.

EMBESTO is a lightly-raced 3yr old who'll be aided by a weight allowance here. He has two wins and a runner-up finish from his three career starts to date, but that 2nd of 6 in a Listed event at HQ last month is the pick of his runs after 2 wins (1 x maiden, 1 x novice) at Class 5. There could/should be more to come but he's a bit of an unknown quantity.

Feature of the day is Instant Expert...

...and it suggests that Regal Reality and Chichester might not like the underfoot conditions. it's true that the former does prefer it a little quicker, but he has won on good to soft and soft ground, so there's no real reason why he wouldn't 'get' good ground, whilst Chichester also likes it quicker and is better on the A/W. Dancing Magic's poor record stands out like a sore thumb on these win stats, whilst the place date says...

...that Pogo might well have a good chance of making the frame here, as he's well versed under today's conditions. Again Chichester and Dancing Magic look weak and this is probably a 4-way battle for the money.

I've got to admit that the following draw data...

...surprised me a little, as I wasn't expecting any advantage from the draw in a small field over a straight mile, but those drawn highest seem to have struggled to win as often as those closer to the rail, so that's another nail in the coffin of Dancing Magic/Chichester's chances, which is just further affirmation of how unlikely it'd be for them to win. If we then consider how those races have been won, they'd really need to favour front-runners if Pogo is going to gatecrash the three original horses I expected to be first home, so let's check the pace stats...

...which is good news indeed for Pogo. Hold-up horses haven't fared well at all from a win or place perspective which would be yet another reason not to back Chichester...

..and it's not ideal for Mighty Ulysses.

Summary

I started by saying that the winner and placer(s) would come from Regal Reality, Mighty Ulysses and Embesto whilst Dancing Magic looks out of his depth, despite a 6lbs weight allowance and whilst I think this might still be the case, I've also shown enough reasons to ditch Chichester but to promote Pogo to the rank of 'possibles'.

Mighty Ulysses now looks marginally weaker than Regal Reality and Embesto, so I fear that he's the one of the trio most at risk, especially if he's held up and Pogo pours it on early. Pogo's best chance of winning/making the frame is to try and get out sharpish, but I think Regal Reality might just go with him and at 4/1, the old boy would be my tentative/marginal pick here.

It's going to be competitive, despite the small field and any one of the four could win/make the frame, so I won't be putting too much money down. Only Dancing Magic is at backable E/W odds, but even 25/1 couldn't tempt me!

Racing Insights, Tuesday 13/06/23

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

Here are my qualifiers on Tuesday's Shortlist...

...and as ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 1.50 Brighton
  • 2.10 Salisbury
  • 2.30 Southwell
  • 3.00 Southwell
  • 4.40 Salisbury
  • 5.10 Salisbury

...and the highest rated from those two sets of races is the last of the free ones, the 5.10 Salisbury, an 8-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ fillies flat handicap over a left handed 1m2f on good to firm ground...

Three of these (Spirit of the Bay, Alba Longa & Spring Fever all won last time out, whilst Haughty is the only maiden in the field, albeit off just five starts. half of the field ran at this Class 4 level last time out, but Timeless Melody drops in from Class 2 and haughty is down one class, whilst Alba Longa and Spring fever both step up one level.

In a fairly inexperienced field, half of them (Timeless Melody, Alba Longa, Spring Fever & Gentle Whinny) run in handicap company for just the second time and none of the field have won here at Brighton before. That said, only Totnes has actually been here before! Spirit of the Bay, Spring Fever and Dayzee have at least won over this trip.

Bottom weight Haughty might need the run as she comes off a nine-month break, but her rivals have all race at least once this term. We''re not getting too much from Instant Expert today, as the field only have 51 previous outings between them and top weight Spirit of the Bay accounts for 21 of those races, but let's see what data we do have...

...all fairly self-explanatory and the one catching my eye is Spirit of the Bay, especially from a place perspective. She's top weight and drawn second widest in stall 7 and whilst the draw stats suggest those drawn lowest would fare best, the raw data actually says there's not really a massive bias at play here...

...and that stall 7 has done as well as any other berthing...

So, it's not a long race and the ground is quick with no real draw bias, so PACE might well be the key here and from those races above that we used for the draw data, we see that...

...the further forward you race, the better your chances of winning/making the frame, which based on this field's more recent efforts...

...is the fly in Spirit of the Bay's ointment and the ones best off here are probably the first four named.

Summary

Largely inexperienced horses with little relevant race data. The draw is unlikely to affect the race and there's not actually that much pace early on. Spring Fever looks the most likely winner on form/pace, but at odds of 7/4 to 15/8, I'm not really interested in backing her.

Up to the pace section, I was looking to back Spirit of the Bay to make the frame but the pace stats are troubling. That said, she ran really well at Haydock last time and easily has the best place stats in this field. had she been in 8/1 to 11/1 kind of price, I'd probably have left her alone, based on pace as she might need the contest to fall apart ahead of her, but at 14/1 I've been tempted into an E/W tickle.