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Placepot Pointers – Saturday 26th May

CHESTER – MAY 26

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £15.10 (7 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:

Race 1: 93.3% units went through – 9/4 – 7/1 – 11/10*

Race 2: 54.5% of the remaining units when through – 4/1* - 15/2 – 9/2

Race 3: 71.9% of the remaining units went through – 5/6* - 50/1 – 12/1

Race 4: 50.9% of the remaining units went through – 11/2 – 5/1 – 5/1 (2/1)

Race 5: 82.3% of the remaining units went through – 4/5* - 10/1 – 10/1

Race 6: 31.4% of the units secured the dividend – 11/2 – 20/1 – 16/1 (2 x 5/2**)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Chester: 

Leg 1 (1.45): 2 (Dragon Moon) & 7 (Wind Storm)

Leg 2 (2.20): 3 (Awesome), 5 (Lamya) & 10 (Stewardess)

Leg 3 (2.55): 2 (South Seas), 6 (Sabador) & 4 (Muntadab)

Leg 4 (3.30): 8 (Precision), 3 (Humble Hero) & 1 (Night Of Glory)

Leg 5 (4.05): 6 (Key To Note) & 3 (Port Of Laith)

Leg 6 (4.40): 3 (Jabbarr), 1 (Desert Ruler) & 6 (Be Perfect)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.45: DRAGON MOON is asked to give eleven pounds to WIND STORM and the concession might be too much for Richard Hannon’s recent Lingfield winner, despite the fact that the form was franked by Crossing The Line on Thursday.  Ralph Beckett’s Holy Roman Emperor filly holds two other entries next week but with only five other rivals to beat, I doubt that Ralph will change his mind, even with WIND STORM having ‘trap six’ to overcome in this ‘short field’ contest.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify via Placepot and each way perspectives.

Favourite factor: This is a new race with which to open proceedings at Chester.

 

2.20: If there is one word in the dictionary which dives me crackers it’s AWESOME.  Not the actual word you understand, it’s the way that Americans pronounce the term, especially as the word is (seemingly) included in every other sentence they speak!  Upwards and onward by suggesting that Clive Cox’s Bahamian Bounty filly should be there or thereabouts at the business end of proceedings, though her number nine stall tempers enthusiasm to a fashion.  Better housed horses such as LAMYA (1/10) and STEWARDESS (4) can make things interesting in the short straight.

Favourite factor: Another new race on the Chester card.

 

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2.55: All three winners have carried weights between 8-10 & 9-1 and two horses ‘qualify’ via the weight stats on this occasion, namely, SABADOR and SOUND ADVICE.  Roger Fell is a shrewd trainer and no mistake and his recent 4/10 strike rate catches the eye, especially having secured 13 points of level stake profit during the period.  Roger’s raider MUNTADAB would have been the third qualifier (via the weights) but for a five pound claimer having been booked to ride.  I’m going to add MUNTADAB into the equation given Roger’s great form of late.  The other horse to catch the eye is SOUTH SEAS who has dropped into the positive ‘sector’ of the handicap via another apprentice booking, this time being made by trainer Andrew Balding.

Favourite factor: Two of the four favourites (via three renewals) have claimed Placepot positions, stats which include one (5/6) winner.

Chester record of course winners in the third event on the card:

1/5—Above The Rest (good to soft)

4/10—Sound Advice (3 x good & good to firm)

1/2—Baraweez (good)

1/1—The Feathered Nest (good)

2/7—Penwortham (2 x good)

 

3.30: Four-year-olds lead the five-year-olds 4-3 via the last eight contests, with seven winners carrying a minimum weight of 8-11.  Putting the stats and facts together, PRECISION and HUMBLE HERO stand out from the crowd from my viewpoint.  The pair is listed in order of preference on account of the draw, five over nine in a twelve runner field.  How many horses will be withdrawn because of ‘car park’ positions in the stalls remains to be seen.  NIGHT OF GLORY (1) is offered the reserve nomination, though having only had one ride around the track, five pound claimer Jason Watson will have to be on top form, albeit the young pilot has ridden 28 winners to date.

Favourite factor: All eight race during the last decade have failed to produce a winning favourite, with gold medallists ranging between 5/2 and 25/1 during the period, creating a successful average price of 11/2.  The last five market leaders have all finished out with the washing.

Chester record of the five course winners in the field:

1/1—Star Of The East (good)

1/1—Tor (good to soft)

1/4—Kajaki (heavy)

1/17—Gabrial’s King (good)

2/8—Zenafire (good & good to soft)

 

4.05: With Tom Dascombe’s local newcomer Smoki Smoka still “looking a bit weak’ back in the spring via a stable tour, I’m inclined to opt for Mark Johnston’s experienced pair PORT OF LEITH and KEY TO POWER against their four rivals in a juvenile event which should not prove difficult to win. Mark’s Slade Power filly KEY TO NOTE beat seven others home on debut when finding one too good on her first day at school at Thirsk.  Any amount of normal improvement (whatever that is) from race one to two should see her home with something to spare from trap four.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 4/5 market leader duly obliged.

 

4.40: With over 53% of Iain Jardine’s winners on the flat being secured at the three tracks which house racing on the level in Scotland, we have to tread carefully when the trainer ventures ‘south’ but Ian might snare his third success on the Roodee with JABBAARR in our final heat.  Iain has become a class act and Phillip Makin’s mount looks set to take maximum advantage of his trap one position.  DESERT RULER (3/10) and BE PERFECT (4) can chase home the selection.

Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is another new race on the Chester programme.

Chester record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/4—Be Perfect (good to firm)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 17th May

YORK – MAY 17

 

Corresponding toteplacepot dividends for the last seven years:

2017: £10.865.10 (6 favourites – No winners – 2 placed – 4 unplaced)

2016: £349.40 (10 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 6 unplaced)

2015: £354.20 (6 favourite: 1 winner - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

2014: £1,473.10 (6 favourite: No winners - 2 placed - 4 unplaced)

2013: £938.30 (6 favourite: 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

2012: £50.10 (9 favourite: 2 winners - 2 placed - 5 unplaced)

2011: £20.40 (6 favourite: 3 winners - 2 placed - 1 unplaced)

Average dividend: £2,007.23 - Favourite stats: 49 in total - 10 winners - 13 placed - 26 unplaced

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 25.4% units went through – 13/2 – 12/1 – 10/1 (6/1)

Race 2: 6.1% of the remaining units when through – 11/1 (Win only – 11/8)

Race 3: 43.5% of the remaining units went through – 10/1 – 4/1* - 8/1

Race 4: 40.4% of the remaining units went through – 10/1 – 11/2* - 8/1 – 11/1

Race 5: 6.6% of the remaining units went through – 20/1 & 9/1 (5/6)

Race 6: 37.2% of the units secured the dividend – 5/1 – 10/1 – 9/2 (7/2)

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at York: 

Leg 1 (2.20): 9 (East Street Revue), 17 (Royal Brave), 5 (Copper Knight) & 3 (Edward Lewis)

Leg 2 (2.55): 2 (Coronet) & 5 (Mori)

Leg 3 (3.30): 6 (Roaring Lion), 1 (Cross Baton) & 4 (Mildenburger)

Leg 4 (4.05): 5 (Original Choice) & 3 (Cape Byron)

Leg 5 (4.35): 8 (Roussel), 3 (Declarationofpeace) & 9 (Main Desire)

Leg 6 (5.05): 10 (True Belief) & 5 (Kessaar)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.20: Eight of the ten winners have scored at 33/1-25/1-16/1-14/1-11/1-10/1-10/1-10/1 and if the trend of percentages (prices) is to be extended, we can expect a winner returned around the 10/1 mark.  The ‘official marks’ of the winners to date were 103-87-89-95-89-96-92-100-104-90 (average of 94).  Eight of the ten winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-3, whilst four of the last eight contests have been secured by seven-year-olds.  Putting all the stats and facts together produces a short list of EAST STREET REVUE (only horse running off 94 today), ROYAL BRAVE (pick of the two seven-year-olds) and COPPER KNIGHT.  The reserve nomination is awarded to EDWARD LEWIS.

Favourite factor: Six of the thirteen favourites have finished in the frame though we still await the first successful market leader.

Draw factor (five furlongs – most recent renewal listed first):

11-16-8 (12 ran-soft)

4-15-10-3 (17 ran-good to firm)

5-3-10 (15 ran-good)

4-12-10-11 (19 ran-good to soft)

5-15-6 (15 ran-good)

5-15-14-2 (16 ran-good)

9-8-16-11 (18 ran-good)

4-8-16-1 (16 ran-good to firm)

3-1-12 (15 ran-good)

1-3-10 (11 ran-good to firm)

York record of the eleven course winners in the opening race:

1/4—Gracious John (good)

1/3—Major Jumbo (good to soft)

1/3—Copper Knight (good)

1/1—Holmeswood (good)

1/8—Desert Law (good to soft)

2/6—East Street Revbue (2 x good)

1/13—Line Of Reason (good to firm)

1/4—George Dryden (good)

1/5—Excessable (good to firm)

1/5—Carlton Frankie (good)

1/5—Rosina (good to firm)

 

2.55: Four-year-olds have won 14 of the last 20 renewals of this contest, with five-year-olds having won the other six contests. The pair of six-year-olds (Chain Of Daisies and Smart Call) are passed over accordingly, hopefully leaving CORNET and MORI to dominate proceedings at the business end of the contest.  Horseplay is booked for the bronze medal from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: 12 of the 21 favourites have secured Placepot positions during the study period, statistics which include eight winners.

York record of the course winner in the second event:

1/1—Chain Of Daisies (good to firm)

 

3.30: Four of the last 14 winners of the ‘Dante’ have gone on to win the Epsom Derby notwithstanding 33/1 winner Libertarian (2013) which finished second to Leader Of The Word at Epsom.  Throw in The Grey Gatsby (won the French Derby in 2014) and we can see why the 'Dante' remains a true Derby trial.  John Gosden has won the last two renewals of this event when represented and the popular trainer would surely have been coming to the gig on a four timer on this occasion but for Cracksman having been withdrawn twelve months ago because of the prevailing soft ground. John has declared ROARING LION (fifth in the 2000 Guineas recently) and CROSSED BATON, winner of his last three races, the last of which was the Epsom ‘trial’.  MILDENBURGER is a typical Mark Johnston terrier who will not go down without a fight, though WELLS FARHH GO might have needed softer conditions to slow down the opposition.  I’m not sure that James Cook will be good enough, despite this looking to be a slightly sub-standard field.

Favourite factor:  Five of the last 19 market leaders have obliged, whilst eleven of the 20 jollies have reached the frame during the study period.

York record of the course winner in the Dante Stakes:

2/2—Wells Farhh Go (2 x good to soft)

 

4.05: Four-year-olds have won ten of the last seventeen renewals, whilst eight of the last nine winners have carried a minimum burden of nine stones.  William Haggas snared a 21/1 double on yesterday’s card and the trainer boasts definite claims here with ORIGINAL CHOICE possessing ticks on both of the trend boxes.  CAPE BYRON appears to be the main threat, whilst ISOMER has an each way chance on the best of his form.

Favourite factor: 16 of the 25 market leaders have claimed Placepot positions (six winners).

Draw factor (eight furlongs):

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12-1-9-13 (17 ran-soft)

16-8-5-11 (19 ran-good to firm)

1-6-17-7 (18 run-good)

1-4-3 (11 ran-good to soft)

16-14-11 (15 ran-good)

3-4-2 (11 ran-good)

8-7-6-2 (18 ran-good)

4-13-12 (10 ran-good to firm)

4-5-8 (15 ran-good)

3-4 (6 ran-good to firm)

4-11-7 (12 ran-good to soft)

8-4-6 (13 ran-soft)

12-5-11-17 (17 ran-good to soft)

11-8-1 (11 ran-good to firm)

1-8-7 (10 ran-good to firm)

10-1-6 (13 ran-good to firm)

7-2-4 (13 ran-firm)

6-9-1 (10 ran-soft)

York record of the course winner in the fourth contest on the card:

1/5—Custom Cut (good)

 

4.35: DECLARATIONOFPEACE looks to be the likeliest winner on the card for Aidan O’Brien having won two of his last three races to close out a decent juvenile season.  That said, we have least two home contenders with chances of keeping the prize this side of the Irish Sea, namely the ultra-consistent Charlie Appleby trained ROUSSEL and Michael Bel’s MAIN DESIRE, who could yet be anything following just two juvenile assignments.

Favourite factor: Four of the ten favourites (via nine renewals) have finished in the money to date, statistics which include three (10/3-4/6-4/5) winners.

Draw factor (five furlongs):

3-1 (5 ran-good to soft)

4-10-1 (9 ran-good to firm)

11-5-8 (10 ran-good)

2-6 (6 ran-good)

2-8 (5 ran-good to soft)

5-2 (6 ran-good)

1-7-8 (8 ran-good)

3-4-6 (9 ran-good to firm)

3-7-1 (8 ran-good)

York record of three course winners in the fifth contest:

1/1—Sound And Silence (good)

1/2—Hey Jonesy (good to soft)

1/1—Main Desire (soft)

 

5.05: The two runners currently at the head of the market look set to complete my Placepot permutation of the middle day for the meeting. There appears to be plenty of confidence in both TRUE BELIEF (Charlie Appleby) and KESSAAR (John Gosden) and unless jungle drums have been beating about any of the other contenders when I have had my headphones on (which I might have missed accordingly), I’ll settle for this pair against the remaining eight entries.

Favourite factor: 17 of the last 20 winners have been returned at odds of 8/1 or less, whilst eight favourites have obliged.  13 of the last 19 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

Draw factor (six furlongs):

6-10-9 (8 ran-good to soft)

1-3-9 (9 ran-good to firm)

13-3-7 (12 ran-good)

1-6-8 (8 ran-good)

10-13-1 (14 ran-good to soft)

4-5-2 (13 ran-good)

5-2-12 (11 ran-good)

6-12-1 (16 ran-good to firm)

3-1-4 (10 ran-good)

6-3-5 (13 ran-good to soft)

4-1 (7 ran-soft)

6-3-10 (11 ran-soft)

6-5-11 (11 ran-good to soft)

6-2 (5 ran-good to firm)

7-8-6 (10-good to firm)

2-3-11 (15 ran-good to firm)

1-9-6 (13 ran-firm)

9-10-3 (9 ran-soft)

7-6 (7 ran-good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday 30th April

THIRSK – APRIL 30

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £364.40 (7 favourites – 1 winners – 1 placed – 5 unplaced)

 

For readers who want to find the corresponding results for last year – look for Sunday 30th April details.

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Thirsk: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 1 (Me Before You) & 5 (Mecca’s Spirit)

Leg 2 (2.20): 1 (Dutch Coed) & 2 (Redrosezorro)

Leg 3 (2.55): 1 (Motahassen) & 12 (Majestic Stone)

Leg 4 (3.30): 4 (Bacacarat) & 7 (Tamkeen)

Leg 5 (4.05): 10 (Pennsylvania Dutch), 9 (Kupa River) & 11 (My Name Is Rio)

Leg 6 (4.35): 1 (Battle Commence) & 10 (Rotherhithe)

Suggested stake: 96 bets to 10p stakes

 

*Point of order – Given the horrendous weather forecast for certain areas today, limited stakes should be applied from my viewpoint; hence the small permutation – by my standards!

 

1.50: MECCA’S SPIRIT could be a different proposition as a three-year-old having offered little encouragement via four juvenile assignments.  I just prefer the chance of ME BEFORE YOU however, especially as Daniel Tudhope has been offered the ride.  Daniel was set to rise to massive stardom a few years ago and though he is riding his fair share of winners, great things have yet to materialise, though it is (comparatively) early days in his career.

Favourite factor: Only one of the four favourites (via three renewals) has secured a Placepot position thus far, whilst we still await the first successful market leader from a win perspective.

 

2.20: Top weight has not stopped money trickling through on the exchanges overnight for DUTCH COED, albeit a claimer has reduced the burden.  That said, apprentices have also been booked for the horses just below the tentative (each way) selection whereby the reduction in pounds and ounces is not quite as useful as appears at first glance.  REDROSEZORRO is one of the horses in question and Eric Alston’s raider has the assistance of Rachel Richardson in the plate as the Foxwedge gelding goes in search of his four-timer.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 7/2 favourite just missed out on a Placepot position by finishing fourth.

Record of the two course winners in the field:

1/1—Redrosezorro (good to soft)

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1/7—Space War (good to firm)

 

2.55: MOTAHASSEN has his first run for Declan Carroll here and with Daniel Tudlope coming in for another potentially decent ride at the meeting, it is no surprise that there has been money in the dead of night for the four-year-old Lonhro gelding.  Declan has saddled two of his last six runners to winning effect (alongside a silver medallist during the period) and when the money is down, Declan’s raiders usually know what is asked of them.  MAJESTIC STONE is offered up as the potential danger.

Favourite factor: This is the second division of the previous race on the card.

 

3.30: Although the last nine runners saddled by Andrew Balding have all been beaten, three of his last five representatives have finished second in their respective events and Andrew’s three runners at the track on Monday should be respected accordingly.  The first of his southern based raiders is BACACARAT who seems to have been found an ideal opportunity to go close at the second time of asking this season.  Standing his way is TAMKEEN who would only need to make any normal amount of improvement from two to three (whatever that is) to make his presence felt in this grade/company.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Thirsk card.

 

4.05: MY NAME IS RIO could (I repeat could) have good to soft conditions to race on, the type of ground which brought about a course victory earlier in his career, whereby Conor Beasley’s mount might outrun his 25/1 quote at the time of writing.  PENNSYLVANIA DUTCH is another ‘outsider’ I could consider. Kevin Ryan has saddled two of his five runners here at Thirsk this season to winning effect and it is worth noting that this Dutch Art gelding has attracted a little support on the exchanges overnight. The other potential each way play in the race is KUPA RIVER according to the gospel of yours truly.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 2/1 market leader finished out with the washing.

Record of the two course winners in the fifth race:

1/1—Muscika (good)

1/7—My Name Is Rio (good to soft)

 

4.35: Money has arrived overnight for BATTLE COMMENCE and it’s worth noting that trainer David O’Meara has certainly started this season in far better form that he finished last term, albeit he is still to reach the high standards he set before the decline in set in.  ROTHERHITHE is the main threat if she can build on three solid silver medal efforts last season.

Favourite factor: Both of the (6/4 & 15/8) favourites have obliged to date.

 

Record of the course winners in the 8th (non Placepot) race on the card at 5.35:

1/2—Melabi (good) – Won the race last year – too big at 25/1 for new (Micky Hammond) yard?

1/3—Dyna Might (good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Placepot Pointers – Sunday 29th April

SALISBURY – APRIL 29

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £2.80 (6 favourites – 1 winners & 3 unplaced)

 

Sunday's Placepot permutation at Salisbury: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 1 (Lady Prancealot), 2 (Cotubanama) & 5 (Kadiz)

Leg 2 (2.30): 1 (Edge), 3 (Berkeley Vale) & 5 (Born To Please)

Leg 3 (3.05): 2 (First Eleven) & 1 (De Medici)

Leg 4 (3.40): 1 (Almoghared) & 6 (Sexy Beast)

Leg 5 (4.15): 5 (Champagne Champ) & 7 (Moabit)

Leg 6 (4.45): 1 (Daddies Girl), 3 (Lady Foxtrot) & 2 (Elysium Dream)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

*Point of order! This corresponding fixture over the last five years has offered some of the most positive results for investors in fancied horses over the entire year.

The average Placepot dividend was just £17.92, the lowest I can ever recall.

17 winning favourites were recorded from 37 races (45.9% strike rate), whilst 36/37 winners scored at a top price of just 8/1.

Out of interest, the other winner scored at 16/1 which is hardly the biggest price you could have expected, with bookmakers having been besieged by successful punters in the majority of contests.

The average winning price was recorded at 3/1.  Best of luck today guys.

 

2.00: The ‘Prancealot’ family are decent types in the main and there was plenty to like about the win at the second time of asking for LADY PRANCEALOT at Chelmsford earlier this month.  Whether she will go in the ground is an unknown factor of course but then again, that comment applies to nearly all the horses on parade at Salisbury this afternoon.   COTUBANAMA ran well at Newmarket first time, offering some pleasing work late doors to sneak into the frame at 25/1 for trainer Mick Channon who has started the season so well.  Mick’s record down the road at Bath via two meetings this season stands at 6/7, whereby the popular handler will be hoping that he can follow suit at this venue.  KADIZ completes my trio against the remaining seven contenders in the opening event.

Favourite factor: F1ve of the last eight market leaders have finished in the frame, statistics which include two winning favourites.

 

2.30: Few horses on the card should be able to handle the ground better than EDGE whose record at the track you can find immediately below.  Soft ground victories bode well for this Acclamation representative in a race which should not prove difficult to win.  Another horse in the field to have registered a victory on soft ground is BERKELEY VALE and running of a seven pound lower mark than when last successful, Roger Teal’s raider should go close.  There is plenty of money in the realistic queue on the exchanges for BORN TO PLEASE in the dead of night which makes for interesting reading.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Salisbury card.

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Record of the course winner in the field:

2/5—Edge (2 x soft)

 

3.05: Ten of the last eleven winners carried a minimum burden of nine stones which reduces the field from four down to three if you take the weight stats seriously.  It’s difficult to look beyond FIRST ELEVEN and DE MEDICI in all honesty, especially from a Placepot perspective.  The other ‘weight qualifier’ Westbrook Bertie was weak in the market at the time of writing. That said, these ‘win only’ races can make a great difference to the potential Placepot dividend if fancied horses are beaten as you might imagine.  FIRST ELEVEN (receives five pounds from De Medici) would have to be the call if the proverbial gun was pointed to my head, especially as John Gosden’s Frankel raider retains an Epsom Derby entry, however fanciful that might be from what we have witnessed thus far. With weather conditions as they are, it’s quite unbelievable to consider that the Derby is less than five weeks away!  It should also be noted that First Eleven still holds an entry at Pontefract on Wednesday, should the trainer find unacceptable conditions prevailing at Salisbury upon his arrival at the racecourse.

Favourite factor: Four favourites have won via the last nine renewals during which time, every gold medallist scored at a top price of 17/2.  Six of the last eleven market leaders have secured Placepot positions.

 

3.40: Nine of the last ten winners have carried 9-3 or more though unfortunately, that stat only eliminates one runner on this occasion.  The current 12/1 price about SEXY BEAST wont drift towards 16’s if the exchanges are to be believed this morning as there was a stack of money at a reasonably realistic ‘price’ about the Ed De Giles raider.  It will be interesting to see if that support gathers momentum this morning when the offices open for general business.  More logical winners in the field include ALMOGHARED and (arguably) CONTRUCT but then again, since when did logic matter too much on this type of ground?

Favourite factor: Eight of the last nine winners have scored at a top price of 4/1, five of which were returned as favourites.  Eight of the last nine market leaders have finished in the frame.

 

4.15: Four-year-olds have secured six renewals during the last eleven years which suggests that MISTRESS QUICKLY could outrun her double figure price but under these conditions, preference at the time of writing is for proven individuals such as MOABIT and CHAMPAGE CHAMP.  Mistress Quickly does not mind moisture in the turf (2/2 on good to soft) but conditions suggests that Ralph Beckett’s Mastercraftsman filly might be booked for third spot this time around.  CHAMPAGNE CHAMP is one from two on heavy going which is a definite plus factor, suggesting that Rod Millman’s raider is the marginal value for money call over Moabit.

Favourite factor: Nine winners have scored a top price of 8/1, statistics which include three successful favourites.  Nine of the twelve market leaders secured Placepot positions during the study period.

Record of the course winners in the fifth race on the card:

1/4—Champagne Champ (good to soft)

2/2—Moabit (2 x soft)

 

4.45: Soft ground course winner DADDIES GIRL demands plenty of respect having contested a Group 3 event the last day, notwithstanding the fact that she was the winner of today’s opening event on the card twelve months ago.  Redcar form is about as useful as a free taxi ride into the city centre given recent events in Salisbury, though it’s difficult to ignore the fact that FOXTROT LADY finished third in their valuable late season juvenile event on good to soft ground last back end.  Lying in bed costs you money long term I’m afraid, whereby many of you will have missed the 13/2 (Ladbrokes) price about ELYSIUM DREAM this morning – win, lose or draw.

Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is another new race on the Salisbury programme.

Record of the course winners in the ‘lucky last’:

2/3—Daddies Girl

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday 9th October

PONTEFRACT - OCTOBER 9

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £76.90 (7 favourites - 3 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Pontefract: 

Leg 1 (1.55): 8 (Eyecatcher) & 2 (Austrian School)

Leg 2 (2.25): 2 (Rastacap) & 1 (Camacho Chief)

Leg 3 (2.55): 4 (Mushaired), 3 (Me Too Nagasaki) & 1 (The Grape Escape)

Leg 4 (3.25): 1 (Transpennine Star), 3 (Gran Maestro) & 2 (La Fritillaire)

Leg 5 (3.55): 12 (Mr Cool Cash), 2 (Working Class) & 8 (Beverley Bullet)

Leg 6 (4.25): 5 (Duke’s Girl), 2 (Miramar) & 3 (Snookered)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.55: The only money in the dead of night has been for the Simon Crisford trained EYECATCHER and to a lesser degree AUSTRIAN SCHOOL representing Mark Johnston.  Richard Hannon only saddles two runners on the card and though probably no match for the first named pair, BOMBSHELL BAY might sneak a place at a double figure price on behalf of the yard.

Favourite factor: This opening event is a new race on the Pontefract card.

 

2.25: 12 of the last 15 winners have carried weights of 8-12 or more which suggests that the bottom four horses (of six) in the handicap can be eliminated from our enquiries, given that FEEBS is ridden by seven pound claimer Harrison Shaw. This fits into my plan anyway, as RASTACAP and COMACHE CHIEF were always going to be short listed before I looked up the stats for the contest.

Favourite factor: The successful 2/1 market leader four years ago was the first to score in 15 years, whilst eight ’jollies’ had secured toteplacepot positions in the process before three of the last five favourites finished out with the washing.

 

2.55:  Seven of the last eight winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-4 and at 5/1 at the time of writing, Richard Fahey’s soft ground course winner MUSHAIRED could be viewed as an each way ‘bet to nothing’, especially if all eight runners stand their ground.  Jeremy Noseda has sent ME TOO NAGASAKI on a long journey all alone in his horsebox, which suggests that this Iffraaj colt (winner on heavy ground) will go close to winning.  That said, Richard Hannon’s other runners on the card is THE GRAPE ESCAPE who cannot be left out of the Placepot equation.  All three horses mentioned in despatches hail from the superior weight sector according to the relevant trend.

Favourite factor: Just three clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won during the last 20 years, whilst ‘only’ ten of the 21 market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions.  That said, the biggest priced winners during the last six year was returned at just 11/2.

Record of the course winners in the third race:

1/1—Mushaired (soft)

 

3.25: LA FRITILLAIRE returns to defend his crown and with the ground in his favour, 14/1 will not be his price on Monday, on that we can be sure.  Whether James Given’s five-year-old will be able to follow up his latest course victory remains to be seen as he has only put back to back victories together once via his five wins to date.  TRANSPENNINE STAR was thwarted by the minimum margin by the first named raider the last day and thanks to a claimer on board, the Michael Dods top-weight meets the rival on almost the same terms.  Money for GRAN MAESTRO would give the race a different look completely though as regular readers know, it makes little difference to yours truly who retires to the bar in double quick time in these repetitive staying races at Pontefract.  Whose turn is it to win today?

Favourite factor: The two inaugural joint (7/2) favourites both finished out of the frame before last year’s 2/1 market leader was beaten by a head.  Both winners to date were returned at 14/1.

Record of the course winners in the fourth race:

2/6—La Fritillaire (good to soft & soft)

1/1—Lady Of Yue (good)

2/29—Riptide (good & good to firm)

2/19—Tuscan Gold (good & good to firm)

2/20—Madam Lilibet (soft & heavy)

 

3.55: MR COOL CASH won one of the two divisions of this event last year though that said, Richard Guest’s five year-old has won only one of his subsequent 19 starts, albeit of today’s mark of 66.  Somehow or another, all seventeen potential runners have stood their ground thus far, though as I am writing this before stable staff have woken up, there is plenty of time from that scenario to change.  Hopefully four places will be up for grabs (don’t bet on it) though either way, my Placepot trio is completed by WORKING CLASS and BEVERLEY BULLET.

Favourite factor: Two of the four favourites (via three renewals) have claimed Placepot positions, stats which include one (11/4**) winner.

Record of course winners in the fifth event:

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2/14—Kiwi Bay (2 x good to firm)

1/3—Beverley Bullet (soft)

1/3—Mr Cool Cash (good to soft)

2/10—Trinity Star (good & good to firm)

1/3—Ravenhoe (good to firm)

 

4.25: Six of the last seven winners have carried a minimum weight of nine stones and the pick of the relevant seven entries will hopefully prove to be DUKE’S GIRL, MIRAMAR and SNOOKERED.  That said, Cornerstone Lad sits just 16 ounces below the superior weight sector and there will be worse 10/1 chances contesting races at Pontefract Park this afternoon I’ll wager.

Favourite factor: The ten favourites have secured an aggregate of three gold and two silver medals to date whilst gaining toteplacepot positions in the process. Three of the last five winners have scored at 25/1-14/1-10/1.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Pontefract card on Monday followed by their rations at the track this season + level stake profits/losses accrued:

6 runners—Richard Fahey (9/75 – loss of 23 points)

5—Mark Johnston (6/43 – loss of 24 points)

4—Michael Dods (1/26 – loss of 9 points)

4—David O’Meara (8/43 +1)

3—Tim Easterby (8/40 +4)

3—Micky Hammond (2/25 – loss of 7 points)

2—Karl Burke (2/22 – loss of 15 points)

2—Mick Easterby (4/21 +4)

2—Brian Ellison (1/14 – loss of 9 points)

2—Les Eyre (1/12 – loss of 7 points)

2—Richard Guest (2/14 +17)

2—Richard Hannon (1/1 +3)

2—Michael Scudamore (0/4)

2—Richard Whitaker (6/10 +24)

+ 29 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

70 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Salisbury: £20.10 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

Windsor: £8.10 – 7 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

Musselburgh: This is a new meeting on the fixture calendar

 

 

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 4th October

SALISBURY – OCTOBER 4

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £898.40 (6 favourites - No winners - 1 placed - 5 unplaced)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Salisbury: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 1 (Ace Ventura) & 2 (Carp Kid)

Leg 2 (2.30): 6 (Roundhead), 3 (Majil) & 8 (Tullyallen)

Leg 3 (3.05): 5 (Mr Top Hat), 2 (Algam) & 4 (Helvetian)

Leg 4 (3.35): 7 (Poet’s Princess), 3 (The Daley Express) & 5 (Dandy Flame)

Leg 5 (4.10): 4 (Almoreb) & 5 (Storm Rock)

Leg 6 (4.40): 4 (Incredible Dream), 13 (Fields Of Fortune) & 12 (Southern States)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.00: Richard Hannon held no less than 16 entries for this meeting at the weekend, albeit he has ‘lost’ nine of those potential runners since Sunday.  The first of Richard’s seven declarations on the card is CARP KID who ran well enough on his first day at school in a much better race at Newbury, suggesting  that this event has been well targeted by the trainer.  That said, ACE VENTURA was also aimed pretty high at Doncaster’s St Leger meeting when sent off at just 13/2 whereby this opposition should enable him to score, albeit the 4/6 quote I’ve seen this morning looks skinny enough.

Favourite factor: The opening event on the Salisbury card is a new race.

 

2.30: Richard’s two runners can be relied upon from a Placepot perspective I’ll wager, not that I would back either of his inmates from a win perspective you understand.  Of the pair, ROUNDHEAD is slightly preferred to TULLYALLEN, though cash will be held back for more attractive options later on the card aside from my Placepot wager.  Roger Varian’s Dansili newcomer JAMIL will probably figure at the business end of the contest with the trainer having found a decent opportunity of his March foal at the first time of asking.

Favourite factor: The second race is also a new race on the Salisbury programme.

 

3.05: Richard Hannon has secured one gold medal and two of the silver variety during the last three years in this event. It’s as well to offer a balanced view as ever, because Richard’s 1/2 favourite was turned over in a four runner (win only) contest twelve months ago.  ALGAM is the stable representative on this occasion, though my initial interest concerns MR TOP HAT whose 10/1 trade press quote will not be available this morning.  The David Evans Helmet colt has attracted money with several firms overnight and it will be interesting to see if the support is sustained up to flag fall.  HELVETIAN completes my trio against the remaining two contender in a trappy looking affair.  Mick Channon’s raider won at Bath when there was moisture in the turf earlier in the season and Mick usually places his horses to decent effect in this type of event.

Favourite factor: Ten favourites have won during the last 20 years, whilst market leaders have a very record from a toteplacepot perspective during the study period, even though four of the last five ‘jollies’ have finished out with the washing.

Record of the course winner in third race:

1/1—Nine Below Zero (good to firm)

 

3.35: Three-year-olds have won four of the last seven renewals, whilst vintage representatives have claimed seven of the last twelve available Placepot positions via just over 40% of the total number of runners.  Six of the last eight winners carried a minimum burden of 9-1 and putting the facts and stats together produces an obvious short list of POET’S PRINCESS, THE DALEY EXPRESS and DANDY FLAME if we are relying on trends.  The trio are the only three-year-olds in the field and they all qualify via the weight trend. Archie Watson has saddled his last three runners to winning effect whereby AMOOD is the reserve nomination.

Favourite factor: Market leaders are only conspicuous by their absence in terms of winners of this race during the last eleven years, whilst just four of those eleven favourites secured Placepot positions. Indeed, five of the relevant gold medallists during the study period were returned in double figures, ranging between 11/1 & 20/1.

Record of the course winners in the fourth contest on the card:

1/2—Our Lord (soft)

1/3—Dandy Flame (good to firm)

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4.10: Whilst four renewals hardly constitutes towards a trend as such, it's still worth noting that four-year-olds have secured seven of the nine available Placepot positions thus far, with vintage representatives having won the relevant events at 7/4*-4/1-4/1-8/1.  To put icing on the cake, I should report that just 13 vintage representatives have contested the race via an aggregate of 32 runners (28.1% of the collective fields).  Can somebody please explain the lack of four-year-olds in this occasion with vintage representative only conspicuous by their absence?  I secured a 57/1 Exacta forecast last year and I am peeved in the extreme that an opportunity has not arisen again twelve months on – wake up and smell the coffee trainers!  Upwards and onward by suggesting that last year’s winner STORM ROCK was scoring on soft ground and with the ground drying out since Monday, similar conditions might be in place by the time that flag fall arrives this afternoon.  ALMOREB has been the subject of support right across the board overnight, making the soft ground Newbury winner (arguably) the pick of Richard Hannon’s seven runners at Salisbury this afternoon.

Favourite factor: The four renewals to date have produced one successful (7/4) favourite, two of the four market leaders having secured Placepot positions.

Record of the course winner in the fifth event:

1/2—Storm Rock (soft)

 

4.40: As one of only two four-year-olds in the field, INCREDIBLE DREAM catches the eye, with Dean Ivory’s recent soft ground Chepstow winner looking to be the safest Placepot option in the finale.  Not stopping when winning in facile fashion that day, I’m hoping that the step up in trip will prove ideal for Dean’s Vale Of York gelding.  There will worse outsiders on the card than the other vintage representative SOUTHERN STATES I’ll wager, whilst FIELDS OF FORTUNE is another option to consider.  Alan King has saddled a couple of winners via his last three runners whereby the 12/1 quote which is still available in a few places at the time of writing might not last long this morning.

Favourite factor: Both of last year’s favourites finished out of the frame via two divisions of an inaugural event twelve months ago.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Salisbury card on Wednesday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

7 runners—Richard Hannon (8/64 +16)

3—Andrew Balding (5/30 – loss of 3 points)

3—David Evans (0/23)

3—Rod Millman (4/35 – loss of 12 points)

3—Hughie Morrison (1/10 +7)

2—Ron Harris (0/4)

2—Dean Ivory (0/4)

2—Roger Varian (1/14 – loss of 10 points)

+ 27 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

52 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Nottingham: £1,361.30 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

Bangor: £156.10 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

Kempton: £16.80 – 7 favourites – 5 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced

 

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday 15th September

DONCASTER - SEPTEMBER 15

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £1,078.70 (6 favourites - 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Doncaster: 

Leg 1 (1.20): 5 (Tigre Du Terre) & 2 (Aqabah)

Leg 2 (1.50): 12 (Tomyris), 5 (Tallayeb) & 1 (Unforgetable Filly)

Leg 3 (2.25): 5 (Heartache) & 1 (Havana Grey)

Leg 4 (3.00): 7 (Time To Study) & 3 (Penglai Pavilion)

Leg 5 (3.35): 1 (Montaly), 8 (She Is No Lady), 4 (High Jinx) & 3 (Fun Mac)

Leg 6 (4.05): 4 (Ghaiyyath), 10 (Tiffin Top) & 5 (Military Law)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.20: Of the three horses that figured strongly in the market when the final runners were declared, TIGRE DU TERRE is holding up best at the time of writing.  Drying ground will suit Richard Hannon’s raider and with Ryan Moore booked to ride the Le Havre colt, the Hannon/Moore bandwagon should prevail again.  Of the other pair, AQABAH is preferred to Zaaki.

Favourite factor: Six of the last eight favourites have prevailed in this Listed event, whilst eight of the 12 renewals contested during the last 13 years were also secured by market leaders.

 

1.50: Three-year-olds have won 16 of the last 20 renewals (including 14 of the last 16) and with 10 of the 13 declarations representing the junior vintage this time around (77% of the field), the result should revert back to type after last year’s trend buster.  Middle to high numbers have generally held the edge down the years and taking all the stats and facts into account, my short list comprises of TOMYRIS (drawn 12/13), TALLAYEB (8) and UNFORGETTABLE FILLY (7), a trio which should gain a couple of Placepot positions between them.  The draw numbers went base over apex on the only ‘recent’ occasion the race was contested under good to soft decisions but that said, just eight runners took part on the relevant day.

Favourite factor: Four favourites have won this race in the last 20 years whilst eight market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions in the process.

Draw factor (seven furlongs):

6-7 (7 ran-good)

4-15-8 (20 ran-good)

9-4-16 (15 ran-good)

3-6-1 (8 ran-good to soft)

16-17-1 (18 ran-good)

7-6-1 (11 ran-good)

10-7-9 (13 ran-good)

5-6-1 (10 ran-good to firm)

12-9-6 (12 ran-soft)

3-8-9 (15 ran-good to firm)

4-6-10 (9 ran-good)

7-2-13 (15 ran-good to firm)

6-16-19 (17 ran-good)

8-10-7 (15 ran-good to firm)

14-12-13 (13 ran-good)

13-7-3 (11 ran-good to firm)

9-5-2 (11 ran-good to firm)

5-4-11 (14 ran-good)

Record of the course winner in the second race:

1/1--Pirouette (good)

 

2.25: HEARTACHE is a filly of outstanding ability and the Queen Mary winner can be considered unlucky not to have kept her unbeaten record intact on the continent the last day.  Bumped leaving the stalls, Clive Cox’s Kyllachy filly never quite recovered from the early setback, though Clive’s February foal is expected to bounce back successfully today.  That said, the declaration of HAVANA GREY sets up a fascinating clash as Karl Burke’s colt ‘only’ has to give the filly three pounds.  Speculative investors might offer YOGI’S GIRL a chance of beating the other six horses home, albeit at a respectable distance behind the front pair.

Favourite factor: Nine favourites have won during the last 20 years, whilst 10 of the 22 market leaders secured toteplacepot positions.  Only one the last 75 horses sent off at 12/1 or more has won this race when sent off at odds of 12/1 or more, statistics which equate to a level stake loss of 58 points.

Draw factor (five furlongs):

10-3-11 (11 ran-good)

3-6-1 (9 ran-good)

3-14-1 (14 ran-good)

3-2 (7 ran-good soft)

7-1-6 (9 ran-good)

2-4-1 (10 ran-good)

2-11-10 (12 ran-good)

9-2-4 (10 ran-good to firm)

11-7-6 (12 ran-soft)

4-3-6 (8 ran-good to firm)

6-9-4 (9 ran-heavy)

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7-3-12 (11 ran-firm)

6-12-3 (13 ran-good)

8-7-1 (14 ran-good to firm)

13-12-14 (13 ran-good)

3-6-2 (11 ran-good to firm)

13-7-9 (14 ran-good to firm)

2-8-6 (13 ran-good)

5-1 (7 ran-good to firm)

 

3.00: 16 of the last 20 winners have carried weights of 9-5 or less, whilst ten three-year-olds have won during the study period.  The only junior raider (Wall Of Fire) won last year and Mark Johnston (TIME TO STUDY) is seemingly the only trainer who reads this column!  Please take that last comment with the proverbial ‘pinch of salt’ but you hopefully catch my drift.  Last Saturday’s ‘endurance test’ at Haydock on poor ground should have set up TIME TO STUDY enough to snare this prize, with the general offer of 7/2 making plenty of appeal this morning.  PENGLAI PAVILION is feared most.

Favourite factor: Six clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won during the last 20 years, though only four of the other eighteen favourites claimed toteplacepot positions during the study period.

 

3.40: Six-year-olds have won three of the last seven renewals of the Doncaster Cup (lone raider Quest for more finished second twelve months ago) and this year’s two representatives MONTALY and FUN MAC are the first pair to be added into my Placepot permutation this time around.  The pair are listed in order of preference with Andrerw Balding’s first named raider holding definite chance from a win perspective.  As much as I love this St Leger meeting however, nothing would prize cash out of my pocket aside from a Placepot wager as far as this event is concerned.  Other each way types such as SHE IS NO LADY and HIGH JINX add plenty of interest.

Favourite factor: Six market leaders have won the Doncaster Cup since 1998, whilst 11 of the other 14 favourites during the study period finished out of the frame.

Record of the course winners in the Doncaster Cup:

1/3--Clever Cookie (soft)

1/4--High Jinx (good to soft)

1/1—Pallastor (good)

2/2—Skeikhzayedroad (2 x good)

1/1—Thomas Hobson (soft)

 

4.05:  John Gosden has been the trainer to follow on the third day of the meeting in recent years and having declared two runners in the race, the chances of TIFFIN TOP and MILITARY LAE are respected.  That said, Charlie Appleby’s Dubawi colt GHAIYYATH comes into his first race with a tall reputation, confirmed by his entries in the ‘Royal Lodge’ and the Racing Post Trophy later this season.

Favourite factor:  Three of the last ten favourites have won during which time, six winners have scored at a top price of 4/1.  That said, the other four winners scored at 16/1, 14/1-12/1 and 10/1.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Doncaster card on Friday – followed by their number of winners on Town Moor on the corresponding day in recent years:

3 runners—Charlie Appleby

3—Tom Dascombe

3—Tim Easterby

3—John Gosden (5)

3—Richard Hannon (2)

2—Ralph Beckett

2—Karl Burke

2—Mick Channon

2—Clive Cox

2—Keith Dalgleish

2—Brian Ellison

2—David Evans

2—Hughie Morrison

2—Aidan O’Brien

2—Hugo Palmer (1)

2—Sir Mark Prescott (1)

2—John Ryan

2—Roger Varian (3)

+ 34 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

75 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Chester: £21.60 – 6 favourites – 4 winners & 2 placed

Salisbury: £31.10 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 2 unplaced

Sandown: £49.60 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday 25th August

YORK – EBOR MEETING – DAY 3 - 2017

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £56.50 (9 favourites - 4 winners - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at York: 

Leg 1 (1.55): 4 (Fidaawy), 1 (Appeared) & 9 (Game Starter)

Leg 2 (2.25): 2 (Dai Harraild), 9 (Thomas Hobson) & 8 (St Michel)

Leg 3 (3.00): 5 (Jalotta), 7 (Mix And Mingle) & 15 (Daban)

Leg 4 (3.35): 12 (Lady Aurelia) & 9 (Battaash)

Leg 5 (4.15): 4 (Commander Han), 6 (Dowell) & 9 (Gabr)

Leg 6 (4.50): 6 (Battered), 7 (Mojito) & 10 (Harroob)

Suggested stake: 486 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.55: Four-year-olds have secured seven of the last eleven contests or eight of eleven if you prefer, as two vintage representatives dead heated in 2015!  The last nine winners have carried 9-3 or more which was extremely relevant to last year’s year’s contest, as just two horses passed the weight 'qualification' which included the 5/1 winner. Indeed as a four-year-old, Barsanti was the only horses to possess tick in the two relevant boxes.  That honour this year is bestowed upon 14/1 chance FIDAAWY from Sir Michael Stoute’s in form yard whereby Jim Crowley’s mount is the first name on the team sheet.  The other three horses via the weight trends all have win and place claims on the best of their form, namely APPEARED, RED GALILEO and ERIK THE RED.  If the weight stats go base over apex on this occasion, the joker in the pack would probably prove to be the unexposed Godpolohin representative GAME STARTER.

Favourite factor: One clear and two joint favourites have won via the last fourteen renewals, with four winners scoring at odds ranging between 33/1 and 50/1. That said, six of the last eleven favourites have secured toteplacepot positions.

Draw factor (12 furlongs – most recent renewal listed first):

2-8-4 (15 ran-good to firm_

10-8-19-1 (17 ran-good to soft - dead heat 1st place)

6-18-4-5 (16 ran-good)

10-2-16 (14 ran-good to soft)

17-14-3-4 (19 ran-good)

2-1-4-11 (20 ran-good to soft)

10-8-17-2 (16 ran-good)

12-10-9 (14 ran-good to firm)

16-8-6-4 (19 ran-good)

11-9-8-1 (19 ran-good to soft)

8-14-16-9 (18 ran-good)

19-3-1-17 (21 ran-good)

6-19-7-15 (18 ran-good to firm)

11-16-12-13 (20 ran-good)

11-14-4-9 (20 ran-good)

10-7-3-15 (18 ran-good)

6-4-3-16 (18 ran-good)

10-8-14 (14 ran-good)

14-4-10 (15 ran-good)

Course winners in the opening contest:

1/2—Appeared (good)

1/5—Mukhayyem (good to firm)

 

2.25: Four-year-olds have won four of the last nine contests whilst securing ten of the last twenty three available toteplacepot positions, despite the vintage not having been represented in two of the last three years. Course winner DAI HARRAILD and ST MICHEL appear to be the pick of this year’s relevant trio, the pair being listed in marginal order of preference.  Willie Mullins has given THOMAS HOBSON a rest since his two races within the space of five days at Royal Ascot.  The successful first sortie in the Ascot Stakes offered an impressive performance to say the least and it might have been asking too much to take in the ‘Queen Alexandra’ over an additional furlongs later that week.

Favourite factor: 14 of the last 15 winners have been returned at odds of 8/1 or less, whilst six clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won during the last 19 contests.  13 of the 19 market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions during the study period.

Course winners in the Lonsdale Cup:

1/1—Dartmouth (soft)

1/1—Dai Harraild (good to firm)

1/2—Sheikhzayedroad (good to firm)

 

3.00: Four-year-olds have won five of the last ten contests in a race which was held on the Saturday of the four day fixture until a few of years ago.  Only two vintage representative have been declared this year which I cannot understand, though upwards and onward in positive mode by suggesting that both MIX AND MINGLE and VISCOUNT BARFIELD can outrun their respective prices of 14/1 and 33/1 at the time of writing.  JALLOTA finished third in this race last year and runs off just a one pound lower mark this time around off the same weight.  Charlie Hills still remains enthusiastic about this horse and boasting a 40% strike rate this venue on good going, JALOTTA is the win and place option I will be taking. Others to consider in a tough heat include DABAN and MUBTASIM.

Favourite factor: Eight favourites have won via the last nineteen renewals, whilst fifteen market leaders have reached the frame in the process.  Favourites of one description or another have won the last three renewals, whilst the biggest priced winner during the last nine years was sent off at 7/1.

Draw factor' (7 furlongs):

7-4-5 (10 ran-good to firm)

4-3-1 (14 ran-good to soft)

6-7-2 (13 ran-good)

3-8 (6 ran-soft)

8-5-11 ( 9 ran-good to soft)

8-6-3 (11 ran-good)

6-15-2 (10 ran-good to firm)

11/12 (dead heat)-7 (12 ran-good to firm)

3-1-8 (14 ran-good)

6-4-8 (10 ran-soft)

5-4-3 (11 ran-good to firm)

7-11-6 (11 ran-soft)

8-4-2 (8 ran-good to firm)

4-5-11 (10 ran-good to firm)

1-4-5 (8 ran-good)

7-8-9 (11 ran-good)

4-10-5 (11 ran—good)

6-2 (6 ran-firm)

6-3-2 (9 ran-good)

Course winners in the third event on the card:

1/2—Gordon Lord Byron (good to soft)

1/1—Aeolus (good)

2/5—Jalotta (2 x good)

1/4—So Believed (good)

1/2—Viscount Barfield (good to firm)

 

3.35: People have been suggesting to me that I have been less than respectful to supposed ‘top notch‘ sprinters in recent years but let’s have a look at the facts shall we.  Sharpo achieved the true sense of a hat trick back in the eighties, whilst other brilliant speedsters to win include Never So Bold, Lochsong and the truly outstanding Dayjur.  The last two-year-old winner of the race (there have only been two juvenile winners during the last 37 years) was Kingsgate Native back in 2007 though no two-year-old raiders have been declared this time around.  Finally, we look to have a race to live up to the billings of ‘yesteryear’, with the flying filly LADY AUERLIA being challenged by BATTAASH.  The ground should be perfect for a fast run race by tomorrow afternoon accord to the weather experts, whereby there should be no excuses offered by beaten connections.  If you want a really speculative type to carry your each way cash, TAKE COVER would be the call.

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Favourite factor: Five favourites landed the ‘Nunthorpe’ in successive seasons between 1999 and 2003, though 12 of the other 15 market leaders failed to add to the record during the study period.  Just six of those beaten favourites managed to snare additional toteplacepot positions.  Seven of the last ten winners scored at 100/1-40/1-20/1-12/1-12/1-9/1-15/2.

Draw factor (5 furlongs):

7-4-12 (19 ran-good)

10-4-5 (19 ran-good to soft)

10-2-7 (13 ran-good)

8-5-2 (17 ran-good to soft)

8-10-1 (19 ran-good)

11-15-7 (15 ran-good to soft)

11-13-2 (12 ran-good to firm)

2-11-9 (16 ran-good to firm)

13-7-16 (16 ran-good)

6-16-2 (14 ran-soft)

8-12-13 (16 ran-good to firm)

5-11-15 (12 ran-soft)

2-3-1 (8 ran-good to firm)

15-16-11 (17 ran-good to firm)

4-8-3 (10 ran-good)

1-14-10 (13 ran-good)

13-1-3 (16 ran-good)

2-4-8 (17 ran-firm)

Course winners in the ‘Nunthorpe’:

1/1—Alpha Delphini (good)

2/5—Duke Of Firenze (good to firm & soft)

1/3—Profitable (good)

3/6—Take Cover (2 x good & soft)

1/1—Marsha (good)

 

4.15: There are worse outsiders on the card than the Champagne Stakes and the Royal Lodge entry COMMANDER HAN I’ll wager, especially with Kevin Ryan boasting a much better record with his juveniles here at York than with his older runners.  Indeed, Kevin's strike rate with two-year-olds during the last five years at York stands at 17% via 19 winners at the time of writing, compared to a ratio of 4% via six winners with his older raiders.  Others to consider in something of a lottery include two of the runners with experience, namely DOSWELL and GABR.

Favourite factor:  Five of the eight favourites (via seven renewals) have secured toteplacepot positions (two 15/8 & 6/4 winners) in a race which has been revamped in recent years.

Draw factor (7 furlongs):

2-16-12 (18 ran-good to soft)

10-7-12 (16 ran-good)

2-10-13 (12 ran-good to soft)

8-11-5 (10 ran-good)

6-4-8 (17 ran-good to soft)

4-12-13 (17 ran-good to firm)

 

4.50: Eleven of the fourteen available toteplacepot positions thus far have been claimed by horses carrying a maximum weight of 9-2 and though four renewals hardly constitutes a trend, this self-confessed 'anorak' has to have something to cling to in offering an 'edge', especially when the figures include three (33/1-16/1-5/1) of the four winners.  The Haggas pair BATTERED and MOJICO and HORROOB will represent yours truly in the Placepot finale, with BALESTRA offered up as the overnight reserve.

Favourite factor: All three (5-1-4/1-11/4) favourites had finished out with the washing before two of the three 5/1 co favourites landed the forecast between them twelve months ago.  The third market leader was well in arrears however.

Course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/2--Syphax (good to firm)

1/5--Battered (soft)

1/3--Appointed (good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the York card on Friday and their number of winners on the corresponding day at York during the last six years:

6 runners—William Haggas (2 winners)

6—Charlie Hills (1 winner)

5—Mark Johnston

5—Roger Varian (1 winner)

4—Tim Easterby (1 winner)

4—Richard Fahey (1 winner)

4—Sir Michael Stoute

3—Mick Easterby

3—Richard Hannon

3—David O’Meara (1 winner)

3—Kevin Ryan (1 winner)

2—Andrew Balding (1 winner)

2—Clive Cox (1 winner)

2—Ed Dunlop

2—John Gosden

2—David C Griffiths

2—Tony Martin

2—Hugo Palmer (1 winner)

2—Sir Mark Prescott

2—David Simcock

2—Saeed Bin Suroor (3 winners)

+ 26 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

92 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Newmarket: £35.10 – 7 favourites – 4 winners & 3 unplaced

Goodwood: £89.00 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Hamilton: £1,716.90 – 8 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 4 unoplaced

Salisbury: £610.80 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 4 unplaced

Ffos Las: £70.10 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced

 

Placepot pointers – Thursday 17th August

BEVERLEY – AUGUST 17

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2015: £2,984.20 (6 favourites - No winners - 1 placed - 5 unplaced)

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Beverley: 

Leg 1 (2.10): 3 (Elnadim Star) & 9 (Zip Along)

Leg 2 (2.40): 6 (Gold Stone), 7 (La Belle Mayson) & 4 (Dandy’s Beano)

Leg 3 (3.10): 7 (Go Now Go Now), 10 (Arabian Jazz) & 2 (Poet’s Dawn)

Leg 4 (3.40): 11 (Knightbridge Liam), 4 (Sakhalin Star) & 3 (Scruffy McGuffy)

Leg 5 (4.10): 9 (Pearl Noir), 6 (Noah Amor) & 7 (Roaring Rory)

Leg 6 (4.40): 5 (Maghfoor) & 9 (Cray)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.10: It can only be hoped that Kevin Ryan’s raider ELNADIM STAR will run better than Dandy’s Beano in the opening event here at Beverley yesterday who was too green to do himself justice on behalf of the stable.  Up until that Point, Kevin has saddled twelve two-year-old winners this season and we hope the experience gained by Elnadim Star will help to give us a better run for our money today.  Should that not be the case, connections of ZIP ALONG will probably land the spoils.

Favourite factor: As was the case on Wednesday, the first race at Beverley is a new race via the ‘Novice factor’.

Record of the course winner in the opening contest:

1/2—Our Little Pony (good to firm)

 

2.40: Kevin Ryan again takes centre stage having declared his course and distance runner up GOLD STONE who should go one better with the experience gained at the track last month.  24 days sounds like the right amount of time between first and second runs on the juvenile front and I would be a tad disappointed should Kevin’s Havana Gold filly fails to snare the swag.  Kevin has also declared yesterday’s ‘flop’ DANDY’S BEANO which makes for interesting reading.  Kevin Stott’s mount did not help herself by hanging towards the rail and if able to keep a straighter line today, who knows what the outcome could be.  LA BELLE MAYSON is the other potential winner in the field according to the gospel of yours truly.

Favourite factor: As was the case on Wednesday, the second race is the second division of the opening event on the card.  Am I repeating myself?

 

3.10: Mark Johnston has won three of the last seven renewals when represented, whereby the chance of Mark’s narrow recent Catterick winner GO NOW GO NOW is respected.  ARABIAN JAZZ has attracted win and place money overnight by the look of things at the time of writing, whilst course and distance winner POET’S DAWN cannot be left out of the equation in this grade/company.

Favourite factor: Two of the last five favourites have obliged, albeit they are the only successful favourites to be recorded during the last twelve years.  That said, the biggest priced winner during the study period was sent off at 9/1.  Half of the favourites (7/14) secured toteplacepot positions via twelve renewals during the period.

Record of the course winner in the third race:

1/5—Poet’s Dawn (good to firm)

 

3.40: Three-year-olds have won five of the last seven renewals with KNIGHTSBRIDGE LIAM being the only relevant declaration on this occasion.  I doubt that Mick Easterby would be overly into ‘trends’ though either way, my self-confessed ‘anorak’ tendencies demand that I include Mick’s Lilbourne Lad gelding in the mix.  If ever KNIGHTEBRIDGE LIAM is going to get this kind of (twelve furlong) trip, it will be under today’s projected conditions I’ll wager.   SAKHALIN STAR and SCRUFFY MCGUFFY are two other each way options to consider.

Favourite factor: Nine renewals have slipped by since the last (3/1) favourite obliged, though all nine contests to date have been won by horses returned at 9/1 or less.  Eight of the eleven market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science).

Record of the course winner in the third race:

3/9—Lean On Pete (2 x good + good to firm)

1/5—Cool Music (good to firm)

2/9—Tin Pan Alley (good & good to firm)

1/2—Chauvelin (good to firm)

 

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4.10: The withdrawal of Fujin has hopefully left the way clear for my trio against the field to gain a couple of Placepot positions between them, namely PEARL NOAH, NOAH AMOR and ROARING RORY.  Horses grabbing the far rail were well to the fore yesterday, as were horses ‘on the pace’ in the majority of races whereby the respective stall positions of 4-6-1 (12 runners remain) should aid and abet our chances.

Favourite factor: This is another new race on the Beverley programme.

Record of the course winner in the fifth contest:

1/4—First Bombardment (good)

1/5—Crosse Fire (good to firm)

1/3—Fujin (good to firm)

1/2—Astrophysics (good to firm)

1/1—Noah Amor (good)

2/6—Roaring Rory (2 x good to firm)

3/8—Bond Bombshell (3 x good to firm)

2/8—Pearl Noir (good & good to firm)

1/21—Tinsill (good)

 

4.40: Five three-year-olds have prevailed via the last eleven contests, though trainers seemingly took leave of their senses last year as no vintage representatives were declared.  Upwards and onward however by suggesting that MAGHFOOR and CRAY should land the pot between them if were are live going into the finale.  ATTENTION SEEKER is the obvious danger to the junior representatives this time around.

Favourite factor: Just two market leaders have won via the last eleven contests though to paint the full picture, it's only right to tell you that eleven of the last twelve gold medallists have scored at a top price of 13/2.  Seven of the twelve favourites have secured toteplacepot positions.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/1—Attention Seeker (good to firm)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers who have saddled more than one winner on the corresponding Beverley card on Wednesday during the last five years – alongside the starting prices of their gold medallists and number of runners today:

5 winners—Mark Johnston (7/2, 31/, 5/2, 7/4* & 1/2*) – 2 runners

3 winners—Tim Easterby (16/1, 14/1 & 7/1) – 6 runners

3 winners—Richard Fahey (11/2, 2/1* & 7/4*) – 7 runners

2 winners—Brian Ellison (11/2 & 4/1) – 2 runners

2 winners—David O’Meara (13/2 & 7/2) – 8 runners

2 winners—Tracey Waggott (15/2 & 6/1) – 2 runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Chepstow: This is basically a new fixture, aside from a couple of transferred races

Salisbury: £33.50 – 6 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced

Yarmouth: £175.90 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Fontwell:  This is basically a new fixture, aside from a couple of transferred races

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 16th August

BEVERLEY - AUGUST 16

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £47.70 (6 favourites - 2 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Beverley: 

Leg 1 (2.10): 7 (Dandy’s Beano) & 5 (Tale Of Tails)

Leg 2 (2.40): 4 (Kyllachy Dragon) & 1 (Wensley)

Leg 3 (3.10): 3 (Baileys Excelerate), 1 (International Man) & 4 (Carlini)

Leg 4 (3.40): 7 (Talent Scout), 2 (Merdon Castle) & 4 (Dream Team)

Leg 5 (4.10): 3 (Sunglider), 1 (Hollywood Road) & 4 (Maraakib)

Leg 6 (4.40): 7 (Liquid Gold), 5 (Inflexiball) & 2 (Perceived)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.10: Kevin Ryan has already saddled a dozen two-year-old winners this season and with course and distance winner Arcavello carrying a penalty, Kevin’s DANDYS BEANO is the call.  Connections of Kevin’s Dandy Man filly might have most to fear from TALE OF TAILS whose trainer Brian Ellison has saddled four of his last five runners to winning effect.

Favourite factor: This (being a Novice event in general terms) is a new event with which to open proceedings at Beverley on the first day of their two day fixture.

Record of the course winner in the opening race:

1/1--Arcavello (good to soft)

 

2.40: The 10/1 trade press quote about KYLLACHY DRAGON looks particularly fanciful this morning with Iain Jardine’s raider possibly being sent off at half of those odds later today.  Penalised WENSLEY makes a little more appeal than the top weight in the first race given the nature of his Pontefract win at the third time of asking.  The success for the Poet’s Voice colt came on the back of a fine runner up effort here Beverley under fast conditions and as the victory was recorded on soft ground, weather conditions don’t appear to be a worry for connections either way.

Favourite factor: This is the second division of the opening contest.

 

3.10: Any horse with the word Baileys involved in the name can usually be regarded as ‘Johnston property’ and BAILEY’S EXCELERATE represents Mark and his team who need some winners, if only to help to erase the horror of the loss of their fine thoroughbred Permian at the weekend.  Mark’s Excelebration colt made a good impression at the first time of asking at Musselburgh and there is every chance that Joe Fanning could ride another winner for his boss.  Better drawn types such as INTERNATIONAL MAN and CARLINI should be there or thereabouts at the business end of proceedings.

Favourite factor: Yet another Novice race whereby no history is in place.

 

3.40: TALENT SCOUT has recorded all of his five victories here on the Westwood under fast conditions and you will have more idea later in the day than yours truly in terms of the state of the ground.  Nine runners are set to line up in this event but in terms of likely winners, that number can be reduced to four, at least until we look at the favourite factor below.  Although Chiswick Bey in an eleven time winner, those victories average out at one in seven, whereby the 6/4 general quote this morning makes little appeal.  I’ll opt for MERDON CASTLE and DREAM TEAM to follow TALENT SCOUT home if conditions are quick enough by the time that flag fall arrives.

Favourite factor: Three of the nine favourites have prevailed though the other winners scored at 50/1-12/1-11/1-4/1-7/2, just to keep your feet well and truly on the ground.  Six of the eleven favourites have finished in the fame this far (exact science).

Record of the course winner in the third contest:

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5/17--Talent Scout (5 x good to firm)

1/5—Chiswick Bey (good to firm)

 

4.10: Ten of the last eleven winners have carried weights of 9-3 or more, whilst five-year-olds have secured four of the last nine contests, even though vintage representative were only conspicuous by their absence twelve months ago. 20/1 chance MARAAKIB is the lone five-year-old this time around and though David O’Meara’s raider is the supposed ‘rag’ in the field, I’m hoping that the trend works out from a Placepot perstive at least.  More logical winners include stable companion SUNGLIDER and HOLLYWOOD ROAD.

Favourite factor: Eight of the last sixteen winners were returned in double figures, with prices ranging from 10/1 to 50/1.  Six of the last twelve market leaders have finished in the money.

Record of the course winners in the fifth event on the card:

2/2—Sunglider (good & good to firm)

 

4.40: Five-year-olds have ruled the waves in the Placepot finale as well of late, vintage representatives have secured five of the last eight contests. Hat trick seeker INFLEXIBALL and PERCEIVED are the two relevant entries this time around, though from a win perspective at least, LIQUID GOLD could be prove to be the ‘improver’ in the field.

Favourite factor: Two of the last five favourites have scored, though they are the only market leaders to have prevailed during the last eleven years.

Record of course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/10--Mysterial (good to firm)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers who have saddled more than one winner on the corresponding Beverley card on Wednesday during the last five years – alongside the starting prices of their gold medallists and number of runners today:

4 winners—Mark Johnston (4/1, 2/1*, 7/4* & 5/6*) – 4 runners

2 winners—Karl Burke (4/1 & 3/1*) – No runners until Friday

2 winners—Scott Dixon (18/1 & 16/1) – 1 runner

2 winners—Mick Easterby (12/1 & 5/1) – 2 runners

2 winners—Tim Easterby (9/2 & 5/2*) – 3 runners

2 winners—David Loughnane (11/2 & 5/1) – None – 1 tomorrow

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Salisbury: £32.70 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

Bangor: This is a new fixture on the racing calendar

Newton Abbot: £81.00 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced2

Kempton: £233.60 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday 7th August

WINDSOR - AUGUST 7

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £226.80 (6 favourites - 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Windsor: 

Leg 1 (5.10): 9 (Bihindi) & 1 (Arden Pearl)

Leg 2 (5.45): 3 (Funky Footsteps), 4 (Raj Balaraaj) & 1 (Choral Clan)

Leg 3 (6.15): 6 (Sir Plato) & 4 (Prost)

Leg 4 (6.45): 5 (Handytalk), 4 (Ice Age) & 7 (Major Pusey)

Leg 5 (7.15): 6 (Sea Tide) & 11 (Superioritycomplex)

Leg 6 (7.45): 7 (St Andrews), 3 (Medalla De Oro) & 6 (Tynecastle Park)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

5.10: I’m often telling you to be wary of what you read and/or hear and this opening event is a case in point.  The trade press have this down as a new race.  It is not a new race and that has nothing to do with the ‘novice scenario’ which I have referred to many times.  High in numbers but low on potential winners, this race will not require a great deal of winning.  ARDEN PEARL and (particularly) BIHINDI should get us safely through the opening leg, though I would not entertain the race aside from our favourite wager.  Money for Rupert’s Lass would add interest to proceedings, though there was none in evidence at the time of writing.

Favourite factor: Two of the last five favourites have finished in the frame, statistics which include one (11/10) winner.  Last year’s 33/1 winner was accompanied by a 25/1 placed horse; mind how you tread!

 

5.45: For all that it is difficult to know why there has been overnight support for CHORAL CLAN, I feel duty bound to report the move whereby it looks as though you can ignore the 16/1 trade press quote about Brendan Powell’s top weight.  Perhaps potential investors have lost confidence in the other entries (it would not be difficult) and though there was some each way value to be obtained about Brendan’s Oratorio gelding, FUNKY FOOTSTEPS and RAJ BALARAAJ should provide the winner between them.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 10/3 favourite finished nearer last than first in a ‘short field’ contest.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way & Placepot perspectives.

 

6.15: Spare a though for the horse box drivers now and then, particularly those associated with Rod Millman’s yard down in Devon, who often have long journeys to make with few local course around from a flat venue perspective.  Rod’s yard is not far from Tiverton and any NH runners in his yard could ply their trade locally at several tracks, which is not the case on the level.  Three-year-old SIR PLATO represents Rod here, one of two runners on the card for the trainer whereby at least the two thoroughbreds can have some ‘horsy chat’ en route.  Three-year-olds have won six of the last eight renewals, despite the fact that vintage were not represented five years ago. PROST is the other junior declaration this evening in a ‘short field’ event.

Favourite factor: Six clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won during the study period, whilst 13 of the 23 favourites have reached the frame.

Record of course winners in the third event on the card:

3/3—Sir Plato (good to firm – good – good to soft)

 

6.45: Four-year-olds have won the last four renewals, with Rod Millman’s other runner on the card (HANDYTALK) being one of four vintage representatives this time around.  HANDYTALK is assured his position in my Placepot mix alongside Eve Johnson Houghton’s raider ICE AGE, who represents the trainer who secured a massive 645/1 double on the corresponding card last year.  You can forget the 9/1 trade press quote about Ice Age who is likelier to off at around 5/1.  John Gallagher secured a Goodwood contest last week with Quench Dolly and his raider MAJOR PUSEY completes my trio against the other seven contenders in this event.

Favourite factor: Seven of the fourteen favourites have reached the frame to date (three winners), with other gold medallists recorded have been recorded at 25/1-25/1-20/1-18/1-16/1-8/1-7/1-13/2-3/1.

Record of course winners in the fourth contest:

1/3—Little Palaver (good to firm)

1/5—Ice Age (good to firm)

1/5—Handytalk (good)

1/6—Clear Spring (good)

1/3—Major Pusey (good to soft)

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1/2—Bahamian Dollar (good to firm)

1/3—King Of Spain (good)

 

7.15: SEA TIDE has been the subject of overnight support and it is not difficult to see why Hugo Palmer’s Champs Elesees filly has attracted money after a fine seasonal debut at Nottingham.  I guess that SUPERIORITYCOMPLEX is the logical danger, though there will be worse outsiders on the card than STRUCK BY THE MOON I’ll wager.  Charlie Hills (saddled three consecutive winners towards the back end of last week) was obviously sweet on his Fastnet Rock filly last year as market support came in for the 4/1 chance on her only start to date.

Favourite factor: I’m not sure why the trade press has the two races which are confined to fillies described as new races on the card; because they are not new events.  For the record, market leaders have secured three of the last five renewals.

 

7.45: There has been some money for Tynecastle Park, though more logical winners in the contest include ST ANDREWS and MEDALLA DE ORO from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is a new race on the Windsor card.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Windsor card on Monday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

3 runners—Eve Johnson Houghton (2/10 – Profit of 2 points)

3—Richard Hughes (4/34 – loss of 8 points)

2—George Baker (0/5)

2—Michael Bell (2/10 – Profit of 2 points)

2—John Bridger (1/16 – loss of 78 points)

2—Clive Cox (6/19 – Profit of 20 points)

2—David Evans (4/48 – loss of 8 points)

2—Peter Hedger (1/3 – Profit of 3 points)

2—Rod Millman (4/19 – slight loss)

2—William Muir (1/19 – loss of 10 points)

2—Ian Williams (1/4 – Profit of 6 points)

+ 40 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

64 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Ripon: £300.20 – 6 favourites – 2 winners & 4 unplaced

Salisbury: £48.60 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Carlisle: £229.70 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

 

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 29th July

ASCOT - JULY 29

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £341.30 (6 favourites - 3 winners & 3 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Ascot: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 7 (Spring Cosmos) & 5 (Nyaleti)

Leg 2 (2.25): 2 (Masham Star), 4 (Naval Warfare), 6 (Pealer) & 5 (Mustarrid)

Leg 3 (3.00): 10 (Fastnet Tempest), 4 (Remarkable) & 5 (Above The Rest)

Leg 4 (3.35): 10 (Enable) & 2 (Highland Reel)

Leg 5 (4.10): 6 (Tigre Du Terre) & 3 (Being There)

Leg 6 (4.45): 8 (Imperial State), 13 (Tommy G), 2 (Supersta) & 5 (Georgian Bay)

Suggested stake: 384 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.50: NYALETI looks a tad short around the 7/4 mark at the time of writing, albeit Mark Johnston’s filly will be included in my Placepot mix alongside SPRING COSMOS and (possibly) DANCE DIVA.  If I had to have a bet from a win perspective, SPRING COSMOS would have to be the value for money call at 5/1 even though Indicia let the form down to a fashion at this venue yesterday.  SPRING COSMOS still holds an entry for Wednesday’s Goodwood Group 3 ‘Molecomb’ event, whereby you should keep an eye on the non-runners board in case Charlie Appleby believes the ground is too soft when he arrives at the track today.

Favourite factor: Six clear market leaders have won during the last fourteen years alongside two joint favourites.  Ten of the last eleven winners have scored at odds of 5/1 or less.

 

2.25: Five of the six winners have carried a minimum burden of 8-8 which eliminates half the field (6/12) if you believe in trends.  MASHAM STAR appeals as one of the better each way bets on the day, especially as Mark Johnston has won with two 33/1 chance on this card in recent years, albeit not in this particular race.  MASHAM STAR handles the ground and runs off the same mark as when runner up two starts ago in the same grade.  Others to consider include NAVAL WARFARE, PEALER and MUSTARRID who is weighted to beat the favourite for this event (Century Dream) according to my abacus.

Favourite factor: Two of the six favourites have finished in the frame by securing gold and silver medals.

 

3.00: I made a strong case for 33/1 winner Galician four years ago, whilst Heavy Metal was the first horse mentioned in dispatches at the same price twelve months on! Four-year-olds have won 12 of the last 17 renewals, whilst 15 of the last 19 winners have scored at 9/1 or more.  11 of the last 13 gold medallists have carried weights of 8-9 or more and adding all the stats and facts together produces a short list of FASTNET TEMPEST, REMARKABLE and ABOVE THE REST.

Favourite factor: Just one clear market leader and one joint favourites have won via eighteen renewals to date, whilst just five of the twenty three market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.

Record of course winners in the third contest:

1/8—Buckstay (good)

1/3—Yuften (good)

1/11—Squats (good to firm)

1/3—Fastnet Tempest (good to firm)

2/15—Heaven’s Guest (soft & good to soft)

2/14—Jack Dexter (good to soft & soft)

 

3.35: Four-year-olds have won eleven renewals during the last fourteen years in the ‘King George‘, the other three contests having been secured by three-year-olds.  Six consecutive favourites scored between 2004 and 2009, though there was a gap of six years until the next market leader obliged twelve months ago.  There is no doubting that dual Oaks winner ENABLE (by an aggregate of ten and a half lengths) deserves her place at the head of the betting though once again. HIGHLAND REEL is being offered at a price which defies belief for a horse which has answered so many questions against him positively.  Granted, conditions today might stop Ryan Moore’s mount from actually winning but there will be tens of 5/1 chances today that have less chance of scoring that Aidan O’Brien’s fine servant.  A similar (slightly shorter) price is available about John Gosden’s ‘second string’ JACK HOBBS but by comparison to the Aidan’s raider, the 2015 Irish Derby winner still has much to prove, albeit this surface will suit compared to when ‘Jack’ contested a Royal Ascot assignment five weeks ago.  Any further rain before flag fall (which is entirely possible) might shorten up the current 28/1 price about MY DREAM BOAT.  If the wet stuff does not evolve, BENBATI could outrun his 16/1 price tag.

Favourite factor: Ten of the last sixteen favourites have prevailed, whilst the last eighteen gold medallists have emerged via the front five in the betting.

Record of course winners in the 'King George':

1/1—Desert Encounter (good to firm)

2/3—Highland Reel (2 x good to form)

1/1—Idaho (good to firm)

1/2—My Dream Boat (soft)

1/1—Benbati (good to firm)

 

4.10: ‘Team Hannon‘ have won two of the last five renewals and there is every chance that course and distance winner TIGRE DU TERRE can improve the ratio further still.  A facile winner at the first time of asking on good ground, it could be argued that only soft conditions might stop Richard’s Le Havre colt from following up successfully.  By comparison, the victory of BEING THERE at the second time of asking was hardly convincing though time and again, proven seven furlong winners make a mockery of the form book.

Favourite factor: Six of the twelve favourites have finished nearer last than first to date.  That said, four of the last eight market leaders have obliged.

Record of course winners in the fifth event on the card:

1/1—Tigre Du Terre (good)

 

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4.45: Four-year-olds have won 10 of the last 18 contests, whilst you should always look out for pilots which ride winners of these races (for lady riders) on a regular basis. Putting those stats and facts together produces a short list of IMPERIAL STATE, TOMMY G, SUPERSTA and GEORGIAN BAY.  The reserve nomination is awarded to Majestic Moon.  If you are still in trouble after the Placepot races, I can pass on an each way word for Zambeasy in the last race at Ascot today (5.20) at around the 16/1 mark, especially as trainer Philip Hide has won with three of his last five runners.  Zambeasy acts under these conditions for good measure.

Favourite factor: Seven of the last 22 favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions to date (one winner), whilst the returned prices of winners include those at 33/1-33/1-20/1-20/1-20/1-16/1-14/1-14/1-14/1-12/1-12/1-12/1-12/1-11/1 during the study period.

Record of course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/9—Majestic Moon (good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Ascot card on Saturday – followed by relevant winning prices for trainers who have saddled winners on this corresponding (‘King George’) card during the last five years:

7 runners—Richard Fahey (1 winner at 7/1)

6—John Gosden (1 winner at 7/2)

4—Charlie Appleby

4—William Haggas (2 winners at 10/1 & 15/8*)

4—Mark Johnston (4 winners at 33/1, 33/1, 2/1* & 7/4*)

3—Andrew Balding

3—Karl Burke

3—Jim Goldie

3—David O’Meara

3—Kevin Ryan

3—Ian Williams (1 winner at 14/1)

2—Michael Appleby

2—George Baker

2—David Barron

2—Roger Charlton (1 winner at 4/6*)

2—Richard Hannon (1 winner at 7/4)

2—Gary Moore

2—Aidan O’Brien (1 winner at 13/8*)

2—George Scott

2—Saeed Bin Suroor

Trainers who have 1 runner at the meeting who have saddled winners during the last five years:

1—Sir Michael Stoute (2 winners at 8/1 & 3/1)

1—Clive Cox (2/1*)

1—Simon Crisford (13/8*)

1—Michael Mullineaux (16/1)

+ 29 other trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

94 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Chester: £297.70 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 3 unplaced

Newcastle: £256.00 – 7 favourites – No winners – 3 placed – 4 unplaced

Newmarket: £33.70 – 9 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced

York: £265.70 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Salisbury: £24.50 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced

Lingfield: £174.80 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday July 15

NEWMARKET - JULY 15

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £29.00 (7 favourites - 3 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Newmarket: 

Leg 1 (1.45): 11 (Sizzling) & 7 (Poetic Charm)

Leg 2 (2.15): 7 (Cheval Blanche), 8 (Tropical Rock) & 3 (Gymnaste)

Leg 3 (2.50): 5 (City Of Joy), 1 (Masham Star) & 7 (Maths Prize)

Leg 4 (3.25): 5 (Bossy Guest), 2 (Buckstay), 3 (Tashweeq), 14 (Sir Dancealot) & 15 (Withernsea)

Leg 5 (4.00): 6 (Gustav Klimt) & 3 (Etefaaq)

Leg 6 (4.35): 8 (Caravaggio) & 7 (The Tin Man)

Suggested stake: 360 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.45: Aidan O’Brien’s record of 2/4 at the meeting this week is backed up by a 10/1 runner up which points the way to SIZZLING in the opening event, a contest Aidan won two years ago.  Only Charlie Appleby has saddled more winners on the July course this week (3/12 – see all the stats below) whereby his Dubawi filly POETIC CHARM is taken as the principle danger, especially as the filly holds an entry in an Irish Group 1 race later in the year.

Favourite factor: The three favourites to date have secured two gold medals and one of the silver variety whilst securing Placepot positions.

 

2.15: 18 of the last 20 winners of this contest have carried weights of 9-1 or less and the trio to home in on from this sector of the weights (9/10 qualify) from my viewpoint are CHEVAL BLANCHE, TROPICAL ROCK and GYMNASTE.  That said, I’m sure there will be worse outsiders on the card than MARIE OF LYON who looks overpriced at around 18/1 at the time of writing.

Favourite factor: Four clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won this race during the last 20 years, whilst 14/26 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions in the process.

 

2.50: Nine of the last eleven winners have carried 9-1 or more and it's worth noting that just 16 'qualifiers' have run in total via the last four contests to produce decent priced winners at 9/1, 8/1 & 11/2.  There are only five horses to choose from this time around, with the pin coming down on the side of CITY OF JOY, MASHAM STAR and EXECUTIVE FORCE via the relevant quintet.  Of the horses below the ‘superior weight barrier’, MATHS PRIZE appears to be the value for money option.

Favourite factor: Three favourites have prevailed during the last eighteen years, whilst eleven market leaders secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.

 

3.25: The last nine winners carried a minimum weight of nine stones to victory, as have 21 of the last 23 horses to have secured Placepot positions.  Although this scenario ‘only‘ eliminates nine (possibly eleven via claims) of the 20 declarations, all assistance is required in trying to track down the winner of the Bunbury Cup, as ever was the case.  Richard Fahey has saddled three of the last six winners, whilst five-year-olds have 'dominated' of late, snaring four of the last six contests. My quartet against the field take into account the facts and stats are BOSSY GUEST, BUCKSTAY (joint favourite for race last year), TASHWEEQ and WITHERNSEA in the Placepot mix.  That said, I will probably have an each way saver (single) on VON BLUCHER at 33/1 (thereabouts), albeit the ex-John Gosden raider carries sixteen ounces less than what the weight trend recommends.  There is no way that the four-year-old would have been priced up at those odds if John still trained the course winner and I would not be surprised if P J McDonald’s mount figured prominently.  SIR DANCEALOT could outrun his price to reward each way investors too.

Favourite factor: 10 of the last fourteen favourites have been beaten (the race being won by horses returned in double figures on nine occasions), whilst only eight of the twenty one market leaders have reached the frame,

Record of course winners in the ‘Bunbury Cup:

1/4—Buckstay (good to firm)

1/1—Tashweeq (good to soft)

1/5—Bossy Guest (good to firm)

1/1—Boomshackerlacker (soft)

1/2—Von Blucher (good to firm)

1/1—Robero (good)

 

4.00:  'Team Hannon' have saddled five of the last sixteen winners of this race which is named after the 1983 July Stakes winner Superlative.  Richard saddles ETEFAAQ this time around, albeit Aidan’s O’Brien’s Curragh winner GUSTAV KLIMT will probably take the beating.  You can certainly ignore the 7/4 quote in the trade press about the favourite who might get close to even money by the time that flag fall arrives.  Aidan’s juveniles have run well at the meeting thss far and his Galielo colt is expected to go one better than his beaten favourite last year who ran behind a 7/1 winner trainer by Charlie Appleby who saddles AQABAH this time around.

Favourite factor: 12 of the 20 favourites have claimed win and place positions during the study period, statistics which include seven winners.

Record of the course winner in the Superlative Stakes:

1/1—Etefaaq (good to soft)

 

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4.35: In previous years I suggested that without wishing to upset connections, I would compare market leaders in the July Cup to top graders at the White City all those (halcyon) years ago, whilst other supposed ‘top notchers’ were A3/A4 types. Tough talk I know but in yesteryear, horses fancied for this race did not beat each other (like graders at a greyhound stadium) in turn, as was the case for a good while until last year.  I readily admit that the last couple of renewals have now looked like the real deal and in CARRAVAGIO we have a storm trooper who has that rare quality of speed and fortitude/resilience, call it what you like.  Unbeaten thus far following six assignments, it might need an off day to beat him, rather than any of his rivals, albeit they are a decent group of thoroughbreds and no mistake.  LIMATO is good on his day (won this race last year) but the days are becoming increasingly difficult to predict, whereas I am sick and tired of THE TIN MAN proving me wrong on so many occasions!

Favourite factor: Ten of the last 15 favourites have finished out of the frame, whilst five market leaders have won during the last 15 years, offering strength to my argument regarding the calibre of contenders in recent years.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/1—Limato (good to firm)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Newmarket card on Saturday followed by their stats at the July meeting this week:

5 runners—Richard Fahey (0/9)

5—Mark Johnston (1/8 – winner at 8/1)

4—Charlie Appleby (3/12 – winners at 9/2, 7/2 & 11.10*)

4—John Gosden (1/11 – winner at 9/4*)

4—Richard Hannon (1/12 – winner at 13/2)

4—Aidan O’Brien (2/5 – winners at 6/4* & 11/8*)

3—Michael Bell (0/3)

3—Mick Channon (0/1)

3—William Haggas (0/2)

2—Karl Burke (No previous runners this week)

2—Ed Dunlop (1/2 – winner at 7/1)

2—Mick Easterby (No previous runners this week)

2—Charlie Hills (0/6)

2—Gary Moore (No previous runners this week)

2—Hugo Palmer (0/5)

2—George Peckham (No previous runners this week)

2—Kevin Ryan (0/2)

Trainers with 1 runner on Saturday who have saddled a winner this week:

1/1—Hughie Morrison (11/4)

1/2—Jeremy Noseda (6/1)

1/5—Roger Varian (13/2)

+ 31 other trainers who each saddle just one runner on Saturday’s card

85 declared runners

For the record, three other trainers have saddled one winner each (all from three opportunities) but are not represented at Newmarket today, namely Andrew Balding (7/1), Brian Meehan (7/2) & Stuart Williams (7/1) = total of 15 winners at Newmarket this week going into today’s final day

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Ascot: £41.70 – 10 favourites – 2 winners – 4 placed – 4 unplaced

Chester: £22.90 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 5 placed – 1 unplaced

Hamilton: £16.20 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced

Salisbury: £122.60 – 6 favourites - 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

York: £448.90 – 10 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 5 unplaced

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday June 28

SALISBURY – JUNE 28

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £106.50 (7 favourites: 1 winner – 2 placed – 4 placed)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Salisbury: 

Leg 1 (2.10): 1 (Aljellaby), 5 (Christopher Wood) & 11 (Macaque)

Leg 2 (2.40): 2 (Pettochside), 4 (Satchville Flyer) & 3 (Inibaah)

Leg 3 (3.10): 7 (Onenightinparadise), 2 Another Day Of Sun) & 3 (Wildnightinvegas)

Leg 4 (3.40): 2 (Great Sound) & 3 (Stone The Crows)

Leg 5 (4.10): 2 (Swahbuckle), 6 (Hatsaway) & 7 (Rosa Demascina)

Leg 6 (4.40): 2 (Sir Roderic) & 4 (Storm Rock)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.10:  Word of warning today; ground conditions softening all the time I would wager given the amount of rain which has fallen in Bristol (an hour or so away from Salisbury) this morning. Best of the shorter priced runners: ALJELLABY - Pick of the each way contenders: CHRISTOPHER WOOD - Outsider to consider: MACAQUE

Favourite factor: 12 of the 18 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions to date (six winners), statistics which ignore the 15/8 favourite in 2012 which was withdrawn before a new market could be formed.  Out of interest, the second favourite won the race at odds of 11/4.

 

2.40: Best of the shorter priced runners: PETTOCHSIDE - Pick of the each way contenders: SATCHVILLE FLYER - Outsider to consider: INTIBAAH

Favourite factor: Six of the eleven favourites have snared toteplacepot positions via nine renewals to date, statistics which include four (7/2, 3/1, 11/4 and 5/2) winners.

Record of the course winners in the second race:

1/7—Waseem Faris (good to firm)

1/1—Pettochside (soft)

1/1—Edged Out (good to firm)

 

3.10: Best of the shorter priced runners: ONENIGHTINPARADISE - Pick of the each way contenders: ANOTHER DAY OF SUN - Outsider to consider: WILDNIGHTINVEGAS

Favourite factor: Five favourites have won to date, whilst nine market leaders secured toteplacepot positions in the process.  12 of the 15 winners won at 4/1 or less, with 13/2-10/1-7/1 chances snaring the other three contests.

 

3.40: Nine of the 16 winners of the ’Bibury Cup’ since the turn of the Millennium have carried weights of 9-1 or more, stats which include six of the last ten gold medallists. Best of the shorter priced runners: GREAT SOUND - Pick of the each way contenders: STONE THE CROWS

Favourite factor: 11 of the last 20 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include four winners.  Successful favourites were only conspicuous by their absence during the previous 11 years before the 9/4** market leader obliged three years ago.  The race has reverted to type since then with market leading disappointing in general terms.

Record of the course winners in the fourth contest:

1/1—Stone The Crows (firm)

1/1—Seafarer (good to firm)

 

4.10: The last ten winners of this contest have carried weights of 9-4 or less which goes against two of the three horses at the top of the weight, with the other reprieved via a jockey allowance.  Best of the shorter priced runners: SWASHBUCKLE - Pick of the each way contenders: HATSAWAY - Outsider to consider: ROSA DEMASCINA

Favourite factor: Seven of the twelve favourites (via eleven renewals) to date have claimed toteplacepot positions (four winners).

Record of the course winners in the fifth event on the card:

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1/1—Hatsaway (soft)

1/8—Cotton Club (good to firm)

 

4.40: Five-year-olds have won five of the last twelve renewals of this contest whilst nine of the last twelve winners carried a minimum burden of 9-5.  STORM ROCK is the only player with ticks in both boxes in the last leg of our favourite wager, though with four-year-olds having secured four of the last five renewals, the chances of SIR RODERIC and WIND IN MY SAILS are respected. The ground could be quite soft by the time this event is contested, condition that would not worry the connection of either STORM ROCK or SIR RODERIC.

Favourite factor: Five of the last ten favourites (of one sort or another) have obliged.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/1—Storm Rock (soft)

1/1—Takatul (good to firm)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Salisbury card on Wednesday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

4 runners—Rod Millman (2/15 – loss of 2 points)

3—Andrew Balding (2/13 – Profit of 1 point)

3—Mick Channon (0/12)

3—David Evans (0/10)

3—Marcus Tregoning (0/3)

2—George Baker (No previous runners)

2—Ralph Beckett (1/10 – loss of 2 points)

2—Peter Chapple Hyam (0/1)

2—Charlie Hills (1/4 – Slight profit)

2—Eve Johnson Houghton (3/25 – loss of 12 points)

2—Mark Johnston (1/1 – Profit of 16 points)

2—Alan King (0/1)

2—Hughie Morrison (1/2 – Profit of 15 points)

2—Pat Phelan (No previous runners)

+ 28 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

65 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Bath: £760.10 – 6 favourites – No winners – 2 placed – 4 unplaced

Carlisle: £251.70 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

Kempton: £32.80 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

Worcester: £109.30 – 8 favourites – 3 winners – 3 placed – 2 unplaced

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Sunday June 18

SALISBURY – JUNE 18

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £27.70 (6 favourites: 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced)

 

Sunday's Placepot permutation at Salisbury: 

Leg 1 (2.15): 1 (Pow Wow) & 2 (Eolian)

Leg 2 (2.45): 2 (Justice Lady), 5 (Shackled N Drawn) & 4 (Mr Pocket)

Leg 3 (3.15): 5 (Nathalie), 3 (Line Of Beauty), 4 (Mahabba) & 7 (Opera Queen)

Leg 4 (3.45): 10 (Eqtiraan), 4 (Mr Lupton) & 2 (Dark Shot)

Leg 5 (4.15): 3 (Luna Eclipse) & 5 (Shabaaby)

Leg 6 (4.45): 5 (Bassmah) & 7 (Tai Hang Dragon)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Sunday (Including some Royal Ascot stats to digest) - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.15: With four of Roger Charlton’s last six runners having run (no inmates were on show on Saturday), POW WOW should take the beating having scored over course and distance on similarly quick ground just three weeks ago.  EOLIAN flopped when returned as an even money favourite last time out, though this faster ground should enable Andrew Balding’s runner to reach the frame at the very least on this occasion.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Salisbury card with which to open proceedings.

Record of the course winner in the opening race:

1/1—Pow Wow (good to firm)

 

2.45: Four-year-olds have won seven of the eleven renewals, yet vintage representatives were conspicuous only by their absence three years ago which make the stats even more impressive.  The last ten gold medallists were burdened with a minimum weight of nine stones whereby four-year-old JUSTICE LADY jumps off the page being the only vintage representative in the field, whilst hailing from the ‘superior’ sector of the handicap.   SHACKLED N DRAWN and MR ROCKET might offer most resistance at the business end of proceedings.

Favourite factor: Eight of the eleven market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include six winners.

Record of the course winner in the second event:

1/6—Waseem Faris (good to firm)

1/2—Justice Lady (good to firm)

1/3—Silverrica (soft)

 

3.15:  There will be worse 33/1 chances that OPERA QUEEN on the card I’ll wager though I appreciate that more likely winners include NATHALIE and possibly the two newcomers, namely LINE OF BEAUTY and MAHABBA.  I don’t believe the race is as cut and dried between the two market principles as the betting suggests at the time of writing.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 15/8 favourite snared the bronze medal and a Placepot position when finishing behind horses which were returned at 14/1 & 7/1.

 

3.45: Recent winners of this Listed race include Sakhee’s Secret, Etlaala, Moss Vale, Libranno and Avonbridge.  ’Team Hannon’ have won five of the last nine renewals which is a terrific record, especially as Richard was not involved in two of the ‘missing years’ whilst securing two silver medals and a bronze on other occasions. Stable representative EQTIRAAN is the only three-year-old in the field though a couple of juniors have won this race in recent years, one of which (Professor) hailed from the Hannon ranch.  Richard Fahey saddled last year’s winner with MR LUPTON attempting the double on behalf of the stable, whilst DARK SHOT is the pick of the outsiders from my perspective.

Favourite factor: Ten of the sixteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions (three successful market leaders), whilst the biggest priced winner to date was returned at 18/1 three years ago.  Eight winners during the last thirteen years scored at a top price of 9/2.

Record of the course winner in the fourth contest on the card:

1/3—Pixieleen (good to firm)

 

4.15: Last year’s first named horse (Farleigh Mac) won at 6/1 and hoping to double up I’m opting for stable companion LUNA ECLIPSE to score for Andrew Blading who has some interesting runners on the card.  Andrew’s Bahamian Bounty colt should enjoy this longer trip have put in all of his best finish ‘late doors’ on his debut here recently. Billesdon Brook offers little (or no) value for money according to the gospel of yours truly, preferring newcomers SHABAABY and (possibly) ALBA POWER instead, especially from a Placepot perspective.

Favourite factor: This was another new race on the Salisbury card last year via the 'novice route' which the BHA introduced fifteen months ago.  The relevant market leader finished just out of the frame having been sent off at 11/4.

 

4.55: Three-year-olds have won seven of the last nine contests with vintage representative coming to the gig on a six-timer on this occasion. Three-year-olds are on offer at around the 4/9 mark before the form book is brought into the equation, with BASSMAH and TAI HANG DRAGON heading the seven representatives this time around.

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Favourite factor: Five of the last seven favourites have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which three winners which were all returned at 13/8.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/1—Dynamic Girl (good to firm)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Salisbury card on Sunday followed by their ratios at the track this season:

5 runners—Andrew Balding (2/8 – Profit of 6 points to level stakes)

5—Richard Hannon (2/20 – loss of 12 points)

3—Malcolm Saunders (0/6)

2—Michael Blanshard (0/3)

2—Tony Carroll (0/3)

2—Clive Cox (2/8 – Profit of 4 points)

2—Richard Fahey (No previous runners this at Salisbury season)

2—Hugo Palmer (0/2)

2—Brendan Powell (0/2)

+ 37 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

62 declared runners

 

General overview

Corresponding Placepot dividend at Doncaster last year:

£70.00 (7 favourites - 2 winners - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)

 

Whetting your appetite for Royal Ascot next week –I f you need convincing that one trainer needs to be followed, this should be all you need to know!

 

Only Aidan O'Brien landed doubles on any one day (three times) in 2016:

Day 3 (Thursday): 9/2 (10/11* & 8/15*)

Day 4 (Friday): 577/1 (33/1 & 16/1)

Day 5 (Saturday): 12/1 (7/1 & 8/11*)

 

Only Aidan O'Brien landed doubles on any one day (twice) in 2015:

Day 1 (Tuesday): 8/1 (5/1 & 8/15*)

Day 3 (Thursday): 142/1 (12/1 & 10/1)

 

Sir Michael Stoute intervened in 2014 when landing a 9/1 double on the final day of the meeting (11/4* & 7/4*), though only after Aidan O’Brien had set the ball rolling with a 20/1 double on the Thursday (10/1 & 10/11*) that week!

 

The time is ticking down to Royal Ascot - it won't be long now!