SALISBURY – JUNE 27
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2017: £80.90 (6 favourites: 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)
Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:
Race 1: 82.7% units went through – 5/1 – 11/4* - 10/3
Race 2: 15.9% of the remaining units when through – 2/1* - 7/2 – 7/1
Race 3: 20.1% of the remaining units went through – 25/1 & 4/1 (6/4)
Race 4: 43.3% of the remaining units went through – 10/3 & 3/1 (15/8)
Race 5: 67.5% of the remaining units went through – 5/1 – 3/1* - 14/1
Race 6: 29.4% of the units secured the dividend – 10/3 & 13/2 (2/1)
Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Salisbury:
Leg 1 (2.10): 4 (Forseti), 2 (Dombra) & 1 (Dirty Rascal)
Leg 2 (2.40): 6 (Edged Out), 5 (Silverrica) & 3 (Rio Ronaldo)
Leg 3 (3.10): 1 (It’s the Only Way), 2 (Oberyn Martell) & 8 (Curfewed)
Leg 4 (3.40): 2 (Big Tour), 3 (Valcartier) & 7 (Aquarium)
Leg 5 (4.00): 3 (Drill) & 5 (Mekong)
Leg 6 (4.40): 4 (Okool) & 2 (Mistress Quickly)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
2.10: ‘Team Hannon’ have won three of the last nine renewals of this opening event and in DIRTY RASCAL, Richard has declared a representative which has already shown a fair amount of potential. This additional furlong should suit and if successful, it will be worth looking for Dunkerron’s entry over the course of the weekend, with Alan King’s Windsor winner (Dirty Rascal finished second) holding three entries on Saturday/Monday at the time of writing. Richard Hannon has also offered the green light to his Intikhab newcomer Motafaawit which complicates matters to a fashion, though Jim Crowley’s mount is proving easy to back as I pen this column. Connections thought that DOMBRA could be a Royal Ascot juvenile in the making whereby this far lesser test should ensure a Placepot position at the very least. Similar comments could also apply to FORSETI I guess, especially as he was a 33/1 chance at the first time of asking when like Dombra, he finished a promising fourth with a juvenile success probably there for the taking at the right level.
Favourite factor: 13 of the 19 favourites have secured Placepot positions to date (six winners), statistics which ignore the 15/8 favourite in 2012 which was withdrawn before a new market could be formed. Out of interest, the second favourite won the race at odds of 11/4.
2.40: EDGED OUT was due to contest this race last year but was withdrawn on account of the yielding conditions. There will not be a repeat of that scenario twelve months on however with the sun beating down on this green and pleasant land for the foreseeable future. It’s unusual for the west to create the highest temperature during a heatwave but that was the case yesterday when Wales recorded the highest reading at over thirty degrees. Back to the sport on offer and with EDGED OUT being a previous course and distance winner who is running off a sixteen ounce lower mark today, we can presume that Chris Mason’s Piccolo mare will be in the thick of things at the business end of proceedings. SILVERICCA cannot be ignored either, despite the fact that that soft ground would have played to her strengths. The fact remains however, that John Egan’s mount won this event two years ago when carrying an additional five pounds whereby you can detect that her Placepot chance (at the very least) is there for all to see. That all said, RIO RONALDO also boasts obvious claims from further up the handicap following a fine Sandown effort the last day.
Favourite factor: Seven of the twelve favourites have snared Placepot positions via ten renewals to date, statistics which include five (7/2, 3/1, 11/4, 5/2 & 2/1) winners.
Record of the course winners in the second race:
1/1—Edged Out (good to firm)
3.10: Messers Hannon (IT’S THE ONLY WAY & SIRINAPHA) & Channon (CURFEWED) have equally shared four of the last six contests between them, though their respective raiders face a decent rival in OBERYN MARTELL in an interesting event. Mick won the race last year with a 25/1 newcomer whereby the 16/1 quote this morning for Curfewed is not likely to throw yours truly off the scent as the morning wears on. IT’S THE ONLY WAY has already proved his durability and looks sure to go very close again. Rossa Ryan’s mount hails from Lilbourne Lad stock which pleases the Hannon team no end with their former inmate having represented the stable to great effect a few years ago. Throw Queen Shaahd into the mix and we have cracking two-year-old race to witness.
Favourite factor: Five favourites have won to date, whilst nine market leaders secured Placepot positions in the process. 12 of the 16 winners won at 4/1 or less, with 25/1-13/2-10/1-7/1 chances snaring the other four contests.
3.40: Five-year-olds have won five of the last thirteen renewals of this contest whilst ten of the last thirteen winners carried a minimum burden of 9-5. There are no relevant vintage raider in the field this time around, whilst BIG TOUR and VALCARTIER make most appeal from those towards the top of the handicap. AQUARIUM could out run his double figure price, albeit from well below the ‘superior’ weight barrier.
Favourite factor: Five of the last eleven favourites (of one sort or another) have obliged.
Record of the course winners in the field:
1/1—Mr Top Hat (heavy)
1/1—Power Of Darkness (good to firm)
4.10: Ten of the seventeen winners of the ’Bibury Cup’ since the turn of the Millennium have carried weights of 9-1 or more, stats which include seven of the last eleven gold medallists. Luca Cumani has only saddled one horse during the last nine days (beaten a short head), whilst the popular trainer was only conspicuous by his absence at Royal Ascot this year. I’m hoping that DRILL can show the way forward this afternoon because as sure as night follows day, Luca will come roaring back to form any time soon and it’s worth noting that his number of runners look set to increase over the next few days according to the entries list. Connections might have most to fear from MEKONG who looks a tad over the odds at 11/2 in a place as I head towards the Placepot finale.
Favourite factor: 11 of the last 21 favourites have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include four winners. Successful favourites were only conspicuous by their absence during the previous 12 years before the 9/4** market leader obliged four years ago. The race has reverted to type since then with market leading disappointing in general terms.
Record of the course winners in this Bibury Cup event:
1/1—Burgonet (good to firm)
4.40: The last eleven winners of this contest have carried weights of 9-4 or less which goes against the grain as the two horses I fancy most here are OKOOL and MISTRESS QUICKLY. That said, I’m offering the pair from a Placepot perspective which should prove successful as long as at least eight of the nine declarations face the starter.
Favourite factor: Eight of the thirteen market leaders (via twelve renewals) to date have claimed Placepot positions (four winners).
Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:
2/5—Air Squadron (2 x good to firm)
1/3—Fitzwilly (good to soft)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.