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Sat TV Trends: 3rd Dec 2016

Another massive Saturday of NH jumping action with the C4 cameras heading to Sandown Park and Aintree, with the Tingle Creek Chase and Becher Chase the feature contests - As always we’ve got all the big-race trends and stats for all the LIVE races.

 

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Sandown Horse Racing Trends (C4/RUK)


1.55 - Racing Post Henry VIII Novices´ Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m CH4

13/13 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
13/13 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
12/13 – Had won between 1-2 times over fences before
12/13 – Had won a UK chase race over at least 2m
12/13 – Aged 6 or younger
11/13 – Won last time out
11/13 – French (8) or Irish (3) bred
10/13 – Placed favourites
10/13 – Returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting
9/13 – Winners went onto run in that season’s Arkle Chase (1 winner)
9/13 – Raced at either Cheltenham (6) or Warwick (3) last time out
8/13 – Winning distance – 2 ¾ lengths or more
6/13 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
5/13 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
4/13 – Winners went onto finish 1st or 2nd in that season’s Arkle Chase
2/13 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 4/1

 

2.25 - Jumeirah Hotels And Resorts December Handicap Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 1m7f216y CH4

12/13 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
12/13 – Raced within the last month
12/13 – Won over at least 2m (hurdles) before
11/13 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
11/13 – Aged 4,5 or 6 years-old
10/13 – Carried 10-13 or less
10/13 – Had won between 1-3 times over hurdles before
10/13 – Winning distance – 1 length or more
9/13 – Rated between 116-128
8/13 – Won last time out
7/13 – Unplaced favourites
7/13 – Irish bred
3/13 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/13 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
2/13 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
The average winning SP in the last 9 years is 13/2

 

3.00 – Tingle Creek Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m CH4

13/14 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
13/14 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
13/14 – Aged 9 or younger
12/14 – Had won a Grade One chase before
12/14 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s QM Champion Chase
11/14 – Officially rated 165 or higher
10/14 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
10/14 – Placed favourites
10/14 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or more
10/14 – Aged between 5-8 years-old
10/14 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
10/14 – French bred
10/14 – Had won at least 4 times over fences before
8/14 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
8/14 – Won last time out
8/14 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
8/14 – Had won a chase race at Sandown before
5/14 – Went onto win the Champion Chase (Dodging Bullets, Sire de Grugy, Sprinter Sacre, Master Minded & Moscow Flyer) at the Cheltenham Festival that season
3/14 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
3/14 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
1/14 – Went onto win the Gold Cup (Kauto Star) at the Cheltenham Festival that season
Sire de Grugy won the race in 2013 and 2015
The average winning SP in the last 14 years is 5/2

Note: The 2010 renewal was staged at Cheltenham

 

3.30 – Betfair London National Handicap Chase Cl2 3m5f110y CH4

12/12 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
12/12 – Aged 7 or older
11/12 – Won between 2-6 times over fences before
11/12 – Had won (fences) over at least 3m before
10/12 – Rated 126 or higher
10/12 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
9/12 – Unplaced favourites
9/12 – Aged 8 or older
8/12 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
7/12 – Irish bred
7/12 – Carried 11-0 or more
6/12 – Had raced over fences at Sandown before (2 won)
4/12 – Ran at either Cheltenham (2) or Towcester (2) last time out
4/12 – Won last time out
3/12 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
3/12 – Trained by Tom George
1/12 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 9 years is 13/2

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Aintree Horse Racing Trends (C4/RUK)


1.35 - Betfred Becher Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 3m2f CH4

11/14 – Irish bred winners
11/14 – Carried 10-12 or less
11/14 – Had won between 2-5 times over fences before
11/14 – Aged 9 or older
11/14 – Officially rated between 123-138
10/14 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
10/14 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
10/14 – Had no more than 1 start that season
9/14 – Had raced at Aintree before
9/14 – Had run over these Grand National-style fences before
9/14 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
8/14 – Went onto finish unplaced in that season’s Grand National
5/14 – Ran in the previous season’s Grand National
5/14 – Placed favourites
3/14 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/14 – Irish-trained winners
3/14 – Won last time out
2/14 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/14 – Winning favourites
2/14 – Went onto win the Grand National later in their career
0/14 – Went onto win the Grand National that same season
Highland Lodge won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 14/1
Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies has won the race 5 times since 1993


2.10 - Betfred "Home Of Goals Galore" Handicap Hurdle Cl2 2m4f CH4

10/12 - Carried 10-9 or more in weight
9/12 - Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
9/12 - Aged 6 or younger
9/12 – Rated 123 or higher
9/12 – Won between 1-3 times over hurdles before
8/12 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
8/12 – Favourites placed
7/12 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
7/12 – Had won over at last 2m4f before
7/12 – Had run at Aintree before (3 had won there before)
7/12 – Won last time out
7/12 – French (4) or Irish (3) bred
6/12 - Winning favourites
2/12 - Trained by Peter Bowen
2/12 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/12 – Trained by Dan Skelton
Trainer Dan Skelton & Nicky Henderson have trained the last 4 winners between them
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 7/1


2.40 - Betfred Lotto "£100K Cash Giveaway" Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 3m210y CH4

Just 5 previous runnings
5/5 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
5/5 – Aged 8 or younger
3/5 – Winning favourites
Paul Nicholls won the race in 2013 & 2014
Nicky Henderson won the race in 2011
The average winning SP in the last 5 runnings is 5/2
Venetia Williams is just 2 from 34 (6%) with his chasers at the track
Jockey Brian Hughes is only 3 from 38 riding over fences here


3.15 - Betfred Grand Sefton Handicap Chase Cl2 2m5f110y CH4

10/11 – Had between 1-4 previous chase wins
10/11 – Aged 8 or older
9/11 – Rated 124 or more
8/11 – Irish bred
8/11 – Had won (chase) over at least 2m4f before
8/11 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
8/11 – Had run at Aintree before (3 over the GN style fences)
more
6/11 – Returned a double-figure price
6/11 – Carried 10-12 or more
5/11 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
2/11 – Winning favourites
1/11 – Won last time out
1/11 – Went onto run in that season’s Grand National (5th)
Bennys Mist won the race 12 months ago
9 of the last 10 winners were aged 8 or 9 years-old
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 17/1

 

 

Trainers Quotes

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"Darebin - I have always thought a lot of this horse but very disappointing last time. First-time blinkers today and if he can put his last run behind him - was his first for over 6 months - should have a decent chance. E/W price."
Gary Moore

29/11/16 1st 12/1

"Kassis is still nicely handicapped and should go well today back over hurdles with the trip and conditions to suit we hope for a good run."
Jamie Snowden

27/11/16 1st 5/1

"Pensax Lady won well last time out and remains in good form at home coming out of the race well. This looks a bit more competitive than the race she won but we hope that she can go close again!"
Mark Loughnane

26/11/16 2nd 7/1

"Win Lose Draw, Down to lowest handicap mark and with Ali's claim then we look to have a fair chance. Decent draw in 2 and we put the cheekpieces on for the first time. We think they will help and has a fair amount of experience of this track. Not the best-looking race and we should be open to improvement with just 7 career runs. Each-way chance."
Mick Appleby

26/11/16 1st 9/2

 

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Sat TV Trends: 2nd July 2016

The C4 cameras head to Sandown Park and Haydock Park this Saturday with the Coral-Eclipse, plus the Lancashire Oaks and Old Newton Cup the clear highlights – as always Andy Newton’s got all the TV races covered from a trends angle.

 

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Sandown Horse Racing Trends (RUK/C4)

2.00 - Coral Charge (Registered as The Sprint Stakes) (Group 3) Cl1 5f6y CH4

14/14 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
13/14 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
11/14 – Favourites placed
11/14 – Had won at least 3 times before
10/14 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/14 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
8/14 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
5/14 – Had won at Sandown before
5/14 – Winning favourites
4/14 – Ran at Ascot last time out
3/14 – Won last time out
6 of the last 10 winners were Irish bred
9 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 1-4 (inc)
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 9/2

2.35 – Coral Challenge (Handicap) Cl2 1m14y CH4

13/14 – Carried 8-8 or more
13/14 – Aged 6 or younger
12/14 – Had 2 or more runs already that season
12/14 – Previous winners over 1m (or further)
10/14 – Didn’t win their previous race
10/14 – Placed favourites
9/14 – Aged 4 years-old
8/14 – Had run at Sandown before
7/14 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
6/14 – Ran at either York (2) or Ascot (4) last time out
3/14 – Winning favourites
2/14 – Trained by Andrew Balding
8 of the last 10 winners came from stall 8 or lower
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/1

3.10 – Coral Distaff (Listed Race) (Fillies) Cl1 1m14y CH4

13/13 – Had at least 1 previous run already that season
13/13 – Had never run at Sandown before
11/13 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
11/13 – Had won over 7f or further before
9/13 – Finished in the top three last time out
7/13 – Favourites that finished in the top three
4/13 – Winning favourites
4/13 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
3/13 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
The last 10 winners came from stalls 3-8 (inc)
8 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 3,4,5 or 6
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 6/1

3.45 – Coral-Eclipse (British Champions Series) (Group 1) Cl1 1m2f7y CH4


Coral Eclipse Stakes Past Winners

2015 – Golden Horn (4/9 fav)
2014 – Mukhadram (14/1)
2013 – Al Kazeem (15/8 fav)
2012 – Nathaniel (7/2)
2011 – So You Think (4/11 fav)
2010 -  Twice Over (13/8 fav)
2009 – Sea The Stars (4/7 fav)
2008 – Mount Nelson (7/2)
2007 – Notnowcato (7/1)
2006 –David Junior (9/4)
2005 –Oratorio (12/1)
2004 –Refuse To Bend (15/2)
2003 –Falbrav (8/1)
2002 – Hawk Wing (8/15 fav)

Coral Eclipse Stakes Betting Trends

14/14 – Won by a horse aged 5 or younger
13/14 – Won by a previous Group One winner
11/14 – Placed favourites
12/14 – Had at least 2 runs already that season
11/14 – Raced between 2 and 3 times that season
9/14 – Raced at Royal Ascot last time out (three won there)
9/14 – Placed in their last race
7/14 – Winning Favourites
5/14 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
4/14 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
4/14 – Raced in the Epsom Derby that season (2 winners)
The average winning SP in the last 14 runnings is 9/2

Other Coral Eclipse Stakes Trainer Facts

Aidan O’Brien won the race in 2011, 2008, 2005, 2002 & 2000
Sir Michael Stoute won the race in 2007, 2001, 1997, 1994 & 1993
Godolphin-owned horses won the race in 2004, 1998, 1996 & 1995
John Gosden has won 2 of the last 4 runnings

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Haydock Horse Racing Trends (RUK/C4)

1.45 - bet365 Handicap Cl3 1m2f95y CH4

3 previous runnings
All three past winners returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
All three past winners carried 9-3 or more
All three past winners officially rated between 88-94


2.15 – bet365 Lancashire Oaks (Group 2) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m3f200y CH4

11/14 – Had won at least at Listed class before
11/14 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
11/14 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
10/14 – Priced 13/2 or shorter in the betting
10/14 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
9/14 – Had won between 1-3 times before
9/14 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
9/14 – Placed favourites
8/14 – Won last time out
7/14 – Had won over 1m4f before
5/14 – Trained by John Gosden
5/14 – Had raced at Haydock before
3/14 – Winning favourites
3/14 – Raced at Ascot last time out
2/14 – Trained by Luca Cumani
2/14 – Trained by David Elsworth
2/14 – Ridden by Paul Hanagan
2/14 – Ridden by Jimmy Fortune
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 7/1
Miss Marjurie was third in the race 12 months ago
Note: The 2007 renewal was staged at Newmarket


2.50 – bet365 Old Newton Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 1m3f200y CH4


Recent Old Newton Cup Winners

2015 – Notarised (12/1)
2014 – De Rigueur (9/1)
2013 – Star Lahib (8/1)
2012 – Number Theory (8/1)
2011 – Halicarnassus (14/1)
2010 – Dangerous Midge (17/2)
2009 – Red Merlin (15/2 jfav)
2008 – Mad Rush (5/2 fav)
2007 – Dansili Dancer (15/2)
2006 – Consular (16/1)
2005 – Zeitgeist (9/1)
2004 – Alkaased (7/1)
2003 – Collier Hill (8/1)
2002 – Sun Bird (40/1)

Key Old Newton Cup Betting Trends

13/14 – Had won a race over 1m4f before
12/14 – Aged 5 or younger
12/14 – Won no more than 5 times before
11/14 – Carried 9-1 or less
11/14 – Officially rated between 89 and 97
10/14 – Aged 4 years-old
9/14 – Drawn in stall 13 or lower
9/14 – Had won at least 3 times before
9/14 – Raced within the last 7 days
8/14 – Carried 8-10 or less
8/14 – Irish or USA bred
8/14 – Favourites placed in the top 4
7/14 – Winners that came from the top 3 in the betting
6/14 – Placed horses (top three) from stall 4
6/14 – Had won a race at Haydock before
4/14 – Raced at Ascot last time out
4/14 – Won last time out
3/14 – Trained by Luca Cumani
2/14 – Trained by Clive Cox
2/14 – Trained by Mark Johnston (2 of the last 3)
2/14 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
6 of the last 10 winners raced at Ascot (4) or Goodwood (2) last time out
5 of the last 10 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
The average winning SP in the last 14 runnings is 11/1


3.25 - Cash Out At bet365 Handicap Cl2 6f CH4

No previous runnings
Trainer Roger Varian has a 25% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Tom Dascombe has a 21% (+£41) record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Richard Fahey has just a 5% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer David Baron has just a 5% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Michael Easterby has just a 3% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Michael Dods has just a 3% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track

 

Trainers Quotes

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"Things look much easier for Zain Arion here today running in a handicap for the first time. She has a good draw in 3 and the step up to 1m4f (from 1m) should also suit. Track will also be fine so I expect her to out-run her odds."
Charlie Fellowes 25/06/16 2nd 20/1

"WHITE SHAHEEN is in great form and ran well last time out. We know the trip suits over 1 mile 4 and think he will have a great chance today - looks a decent e/w option around 11/2."
William Muir 27/06/16 1st 4/1


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