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Coral Eclipse Trends

Run over 1m2f at Sandown Park racecourse in early July the Group One Coral-Eclipse Stakes is open to horses aged 3 or older and with 15 of the last 19 winners having already landed a Group One contest in their careers then it often attracts some of the best horses from around the world.

In recent years, we’ve seen 2 of the last 12 Epsom Derby winners from that season go onto land the Coral-Eclipse, while favourites have a decent record – winning 9 of the last 19 and being placed in 15 of the last 19.

Here at Geegeez, we look back at recent winners and highlights the key stats to be looking out for ahead of the 2021 renewal – this year run on Saturday 3rd July.

Eclipse Stakes Past Winners

2020 – Ghaiyyath (9/4)
2019 – Enable (4/6 fav)
2018 – Roaring Lion (7/4 fav)
2017 – Ulysses (8/1)
2016 – Hawkbill (6/1)
2015 – Golden Horn (4/9 fav)
2014 – Mukhadram (14/1)
2013 – Al Kazeem (15/8 fav)
2012 – Nathaniel (7/2)
2011 – So You Think (4/11 fav)
2010 -  Twice Over (13/8 fav)
2009 – Sea The Stars (4/7 fav)
2008 – Mount Nelson (7/2)
2007 – Notnowcato (7/1)
2006 –David Junior (9/4)
2005 –Oratorio (12/1)
2004 –Refuse To Bend (15/2)
2003 –Falbrav (8/1)
2002 – Hawk Wing (8/15 fav)

Eclipse Stakes Betting Trends

19/19 – Won by a horse aged 5 or younger
15/19 – Had at least 2 runs already that season
15/19 – Won by a previous Group One winner
15/19 – Placed favourites
14/19 – Placed in their last race
13/19 – Raced between 2 and 3 times that season
11/19 – Raced at Royal Ascot last time out (three won there)
9/19 – Favourites that won
5/19 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
5/19 – Raced in the Epsom Derby that season
4/19 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
4/19 – Trained by John Gosden (4 of last 9)
6 of the last 14 winners won last time out
2 of the last 12 Derby winners of that season went onto win the race
The last 6 year-old to win the race was in 1886
The average winning SP in the last 19 runnings is 9/2
13 of out the last 16 winners had run in the previous 30 days
12 out of the last 16 winners were Group 1 winners
15 of the last 16 winners came from the first four in the betting
14 out of the last 16 winners had won over 1m 2f or further

 

Other Eclipse Stakes Trainer Facts

Aidan O’Brien won the race in 2011, 2008, 2005, 2002 & 2000
Sir Michael Stoute won the race in 2007, 2001, 1997, 1994, 1993 & 2017
Godolphin-owned horses have won the race in 2004, 1998, 1996, 1995, 2016 & 2020
Trainer John Gosden has won 4 of the last 9 runnings

 

 

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Bet365 Gold Cup Trends

The Bet365 Gold Cup will be known to older racing fans as The Whitbread, this 3m5 1/2f race is the last big jumping event of the NH season, and being staged on a mixed (jumps/flat) card then for many this signals the real handover between the two codes.

Run at Sandown Park racecourse the staying Handicap Grade Three chase has been won by some leading names over the years, including Desert Orchid, who landed the prize back in 1988. It’s also been a poor race for the favourite in recent times with not a single market leader win since Beau took the race in 2000, while it might pay to note that 23 of the last 28 (82%) winners carried less than 11st to victory.

Here at GEEGEEZ we've got all the stats ahead of the 2021 renewal, this year run on Saturday April 24th.

 

Past Bet365 Gold Cup Winners

2020 – No Race
2019 – TALKISCHEAP (7/1)
2018 - STEP BACK (7/1)
2017 – HELLAN HARRI (40/1)
2016 – THE YOUNG MASTER (8/1)
2015 – JUST A PAR (14/1)
2014 – HADRIANS APPROACH (10/1)
2013 – QUENTIN COLLONGES (14/1)
2012 – TIDAL BAY (9/1)
2011 – POKER DE SIVOLA (11/1)
2010 – CHURCH ISLAND (20/1)
2009 – HENNESSY (13/2)
2008 – MONKERHOSTIN (25/1)
2007 – HOT WELD (6/1)
2006 – LACDOUDAL (10/1)
2005 – JACK HIGH (16/1)
2004 – PUNTAL (25/1)
2003 – AD HOC (7/1)

 

Bet365 Gold Cup Betting Trends and Stats

17/17 – Had raced in the last 63 days
16/17 – Carried 11-5 or less in weight
14/17 – Carried 11-0 or less
14/17 – Had won over 3m or further before
13/17 – Aged 9 or younger
12/17  - Returned 14/1 or shorter in the betting
10/17 – Had raced in the last 25 days
10/17 – Officially rated 140 or higher
10/17 – Came from the top 7 in the betting market
9/17 – Finished 4th or worse last time out
5/17 – Won with 10st in weight
3/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/17 – Won last time out
2/17 – Ran in the Aintree Grand National last time out
2/17 – Ran in the Scottish Grand National last time out
2/17 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
2/17 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
2/17 – Ridden by Sean Bowen
0/17 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 17 years is 14/1

Other Key Bet365 Gold Cup Facts

The last winning favourite was Beau in 2000
Just one 6 year-old winner since 1959
24 of the last 29 (83%) winners carried less than 11st
8 year-olds have won 6 of the last 17 runnings (35%)
13 of the last 17 (76%) winners were aged 7, 8 or 9 years-old
Trainer Paul Nicholls has won the race 4 times

 

Let’s take a look at some of the key stats…………………..

Recent Run – With ALL of the last seventeen winners having raced in the last 63 days then this is certainly a good stating point when we know the final runners. This trend can also be taken a bit further with 10 of the last 17 winners having raced in the last 25 days. Only three of the last 17 winners won their last race, so don’t be too hung up looking for a recent winner, while 9 of the last 17 also finished unplaced in their most recent outing.

Weight – Another big trend here to help whittle down the runners as 16 of the last 17 winners carried 11st 5lbs or less in weight, with 14 of the last 17 having 11st or less on their backs. Since 2007, we’ve only had two winners that won with 11st or more. If we go back a bit further in time then 24 of the last 29 winners (83%) carried less than 11st, while 5 of the last 17 winners took the prize with just 10st – so, even though it doesn’t always apply to these staying races, it’s clear here that those towards the bottom of the handicap have fared better.

Age – The most recent winner in 2019 – Talkischeap – was a 7 year-old when he won the race – 50% of the last six winners have now been aged 7. Plus, by winning this Alan King runner further backed up the trend that’s seen 13 of the last 17 winners aged 9 or younger. Having said that, we have seen three 11 year-olds – Monkerhostin (2008), Church Island (2010) and Tidal Bay (2012) – take the prize. However, 76% of the last 17 winners fitted into the age bracket between 7-9 year-olds and 6 of the last 17 winners were 8 year-olds. At the other end of the age spectrum, we’ve had just one 6 year-old winner (Bounce Back, 2002) since 1959.

Favourites and Betting – Another huge trend here in recent times has seen this race being a graveyard contest for the favourites – the last winning market leader was in 2000 (Beau). Backed up again in 2019 with the jolly – West Approach – only managing fifth. However, we generally don’t have to look too far away from the favourite to find the winner. The 2019 hero was sent off the 7/1 joint second favourite, while 12 of the last 17 winners returned 14/1 or shorter in the betting and 10 of those came from the top seven in the market.

Trip – It’s no shock that 14 of the last 17 winners of this staying handicap have won previously over at least 3m, but it’s still something to mention in case there are any new kids on the block trying 3m+ for the first time.

Trainers – As already mentioned the Alan King team took this race when it was last run in 2019, but other yards to have on your radar in this race have to be Paul Nicholls, who has four successes to his name – the most recent being in 2015. Nicky Henderson, Peter Bowen, Neil Mulholland and Philip Hobbs are other stables that have got their name on the winners’ hall of fame in recent years too.

 

 

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Cotswold Chase Trends

Run at Cheltenham racecourse – normally in the third week of January at their Trials Meeting – the Cotswold Chase is run over a trip of 3m 1 ½ furlongs. The race is deemed as another Cheltenham Gold Cup trial, but maybe only in name as the last horse to land both races in the same season was Looks Like Trouble in 2000, while Master Oats took both prizes back in 1995.

Being Staged at Sandown Park in 2021 - Note, the 2021 running of the Cotswold Chase will now be run at Sandown Park on Saturday 6th Feb 2021, after the original race day at Cheltenham (30th Jan) was called off.

Twelve months ago in 2020 we saw the Nicky Henderson-trained Santini win the race under jockey Nico de Boinville – that was the first winning favourite in the last 17 runnings, while Santini went onto finish a close second in the 2020 Cheltenham Gold Cup.

Here at GEEGEEZ we take a look back at past winners of the Paddy Power Cotswold Chase and give you all the stats that mater ahead of the 2021 renewal – this year run on Saturday 6th February 2021.

 

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Cotswold Chase Past Winners

2020 – Santini (13/8 fav)
2019 - Frodon (9/4)
2018 - Definitly Red (7/1)
2017 – Many Clouds (8/1)
2016 – Smad Place (9/2)
2015 – Many Clouds (4/1)
2014 – The Giant Bolster (6/1)
2013 - Cape Tribulation (7/1)
2012 – Midnight Chase (11/2)
2011 – Neptune Collonges (11/2)
2010 – Taranis (16/1)
2009 – Joe Lively (11/1)
2008 – Knowhere (16/1)
2007 – Exotic Dancer (6/1)
2006 – See You Sometime (18/1)
2005 – Grey Abbey (10/3)
2004 – Jair Du Cochet (11/4)

Cotswold Chase Betting Trends

17/17 – Officially rated 151 or higher
16/17 – Ran at Cheltenham over fences before (8 had won)
15/17 – Won over at least 3m before (fences)
15/17 – Raced in the last 8 weeks
14/17 – Won between 2-6 times over fences
12/17 – Priced 7/1 or less
12/17 – Went onto race in that season’s Gold Cup (no winners, all placed 8th or better)
11/17 – Aged 9 or 10 years-old
11/17 – Ran at either Wetherby (3), Cheltenham (4) or Kempton (4) last time
11/17 – Placed favourites
9/17 – Winning distance – 6 lengths or more
8/17 – Won last time out
7/17 – Unplaced last time out
7/17 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
6/17 – Winners from outside the top 3 in the market
6/17 – Won by a French-bred horse
3/17 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard (5 wins in total)
2/17 – Won by the Oliver Sherwood yard
1/17 – Went onto win the Grand National (Many Clouds, 2015)
1/17 – Went onto win the Ryanair Chase (Frodon, 2019)
1/17 – Favourites
10 of the last 13 winners were aged 9 or 10 years-old
The average winning SP in the last 17 runnings is 15/2
Looks Like Trouble (2000) was the last winner to go onto win the Cheltenham Gold Cup

 

 

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Tingle Creek Chase Trends

Run over 2m the Betfair-sponsored Tingle Creek Chase is staged at Sandown Park racecourse and this year (2017) run on 9th December. The Grade One Chase is always seen as a good guide to the Queen Mother Champion Chase run at the Cheltenham Festival later in the season – with Master Minded (2008), Moscow Flyer (2004), Sprinter Sacre (2012), Sire de Grugy (2013) & Dodging Bullets (2014) the last horses to do the Tingle Creek/Champion Chase double in the same season at the Cheltenham Festival.

The 2019 Tingle Creek Chase was won by the Philip Hobbs-trained Defi Du Seuil – the second win in the race for the trainer after also winning it in 2001 with Flagship Uberalles.

Here at GEEGEEZ we take a look back at recent winners and gives you the key Tingle Creek trends to look out for ahead of the 2020 renewal – this year run on Saturday 5th December.

Recent Tingle Creek Winners

2019 – DEFI DU SEUIL (2/1 fav)
2018 - ALTIOR (8/13 fav)
2017 – POLITOLOGUE (7/2)
2016 – UN DE SCEAUX (5/4 fav)
2015 – SIRE DE GRUGY (10/3)
2014 – DODGING BULLETS (9/1)
2013 – SIRE DE GRUGY (7/4 jfav)
2012 – SPRINTER SACRE (4/11 fav)
2011 – SIZING EUROPE (11/8 fav)
2010 – MASTER MINDED (10/11 fav)
2009 – TWIST MAGIC (9/4)
2008 – MASTER MINDED (4/7 fav)
2007 – TWIST MAGIC (5/1)
2006 – KAUTO STAR (4/9 fav)
2005 – KAUTO STAR (5/2 jfav)
2004 – MOSCOW FLYER (2/1)
2003 – MOSCOW FLYER (6/4 fav)
2002 – CENKOS (6/1)

 

Tingle Creek Chase Trends

17/18 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
17/18 – Aged 9 or younger
16/18 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
15/18 – Had won a Grade One chase before
15/18 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s QM Champion Chase
14/18 – Placed favourites
14/18 – Aged between 5-8 years-old
14/18 – Had won at least 4 times over fences before
13/18 – French bred
13/18 – Officially rated 165 or higher
13/18 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
12/18 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
11/18 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or more
11/18 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
11/18 – Won last time out
10/18 – Had won a chase race at Sandown before
9/18 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
6/18 – Went onto win the Champion Chase (Altior, Dodging Bullets, Sire de Grugy, Sprinter Sacre, Master Minded & Moscow Flyer) at the Cheltenham Festival that season
1/18 – Went onto win the Gold Cup (Kauto Star) at the Cheltenham Festival that season
The average winning SP in the last 18 years is 5/2

Note: The 2010 renewal was staged at Cheltenham

 

 

 

 

 

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