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Stat of the Day, 29th July 2020

Tuesday's pick was...

2.00 Ayr : Mr Wagyu @ 3/1 BOG WON at 5/1 (Made virtually all, ridden inside final furlong, ran on well to win by 2.25 lengths) 

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

2.45 Goodwood :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Sardinia Sunset @ 9/2 BOG

...in the 10-runner, Group 3, Molecomb Stakes for 2yo over 5f on Good ground worth £22,684 to the winner...

Why?...

A rare foray into Class 1 racing for me/SotD today and as usual, the Geegeez racecard offers some obvious pointers...

...ie in-form trainer, jockey with a decent (albeit from a small sample size) record at the venue and an LTO winner who heads the Geegeez Speed ratings. I'd hope all of the above is pretty self-explanatory by now and is all covered in the excellent user guide that (a) you can find in your "My Geegeez" area and (b) we recommend you all read.

I'm also not going to go down the route of a big-race preview as others here on the Geegeez team are better placed to do that and I'd wager they already have 😉 (I don't read any previews until I've done my own thing!)

So, what can I tell you that you might not know, but could be of use framing today's selection?

How about Roger Varian's female LTO winners sent off at 2/1 and bigger on the Flat? Yes Chris, tell me about them! Well, since 2014, they are 23 from 132 (17.4% SR) for 105.98pts (+80.3% ROI) profit, including of relevance today...

  • 19/94 (20.2%) for 107.5pts (+114.4%) at 11-60 days since last run
  • 18/90 (20%) for 75.54pts (+83.9%) in 7-12 runner contests
  • 14/76 (18.4%) for 83.64pts (+110.1%) in non-handicaps
  • 12/69 (17.4%) for 78.11pts (+113.2%) at Class 1
  • 11/42 (26.2%) for 100.56pts (+239.4%) in races worth 21-40k
  • 8/23 (34.8%) for 86.98pts (+378.2%) at Group 3
  • 6/27 (22.2%) for 42.04pts (+155.7%) with 2 yr olds
  • 3/10 (30%) for 9.27pts (+92.7%) in July
  • and 2/4 (50%) for 8.1pts (+202.5%) here at Goodwood...

...whilst those racing in 7-12 runner, Class 1 non-handicaps worth £21-40k after a break of 16-60 days are 5 from 10 (50% SR) for 55.53pts (+555.3% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Sardinia Sunset @ 9/2 BOG as was widely available (inc at least a couple BOGs) at 5.45am Wednesday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 2.45 Goodwood

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. Please note I left for Greece on Monday 20/07 for two weeks to look at some hotels for my travel agency business and to get some R&R, so whilst I'll still be posting each day (except 04/08 when cover has been arranged), the timings may well be different to normal.