Posts

Stat of the Day, 7th January 2019

Saturday's Pick was...

3.35 Sandown : Monsieur Lecoq @ 3/1 BOG WON at 11/4 (Tracked leader until 3rd, tracked leading pair, 2nd again after 3 out, led travelling well approaching next, came clear before last, won easily by 9 lengths)

Monday's pick runs in the...

2.25 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Sarvi @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 13-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ Handicap Hurdle over 1m7½f on Good ground worth £4159 to the winner... 

Why?

This 4 yr old filly was third over this course and distance just 6 days ago and would certainly have fared better but for a mistake at the last. A better jumping display under the same jockey off the same mark today should be enough for her to at least be in the mix on the run-in.

Her trainer, Jim Goldie, is 11 from 69 (15.9% SR) for 21.07pts (+30.5% ROI) with sub-12/1 Musselburgh handicap hurdlers since 2008 and to ensure we're not relying on old data, we'll focus on those from 2013 onwards who are 7/40 (17.5% SR) for 18.63pts (+46.6% ROI).

And of those 40...

  • those who raced in the previous 45 days are 6/36 (16.6%) for 17.82pts (+49.5%)
  • those with a top 3 finish LTO are 3/12 (25%) for 13.16pts (+109.7%)
  • top 3 finish LTO in the previous 45 days = 3/11 (27.3%) for 14.16pts (+128.8%)
  • those ridden by Callum Bewley : 2/9 (22.2%) for 7.28pts (+80.9%)
  • Bewley + top 3 LTO = 2/3 (66.6%) for 13.28pts (+442.6%), with all three having raced in the previous 45 days.

Also, over the last two years, Jim Goldie's handicappers turned back out after just 4 to 10 days rest are 33/199 (16.6% SR) for 253.2pts (+127.2% ROI), from which...

  • 3-5 yr olds are 21/105 (20%) for 76pts (+72.3%)
  • Same OR as LTO : 16/101 (15.8%) for 209.3pts (+207.3%)
  • Same Class as LTO : 19/100 (19%) for 233.6pts (+233.6%)
  • Within o.5f of LTO trip : 18/98 (18.4%) for 110.2pts (+112.4%)
  • Females are 14/69 (20.3%) for 102.8pts (+148.9%)
  • Same jockey as LTO : 13/63 (20.6%) for 48.2pts (+76.6%)
  • Class 4 : 6/43 (14%) for 122.8pts (+285.5%)
  • at Musselburgh : 4/16 (25%) for 3.6pts (+14.4%)
  • and 3-5 yr old females at the same OR, class and distance as LTO are 3/9 (33.3%) for 16.44pts (+182.7%)

...giving us a 1pt win bet on Sarvi @ 7/2 BOG as was available from pretty much everywhere at 6.50pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.25 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 7th January 2019

Saturday's Pick was...

3.35 Sandown : Monsieur Lecoq @ 3/1 BOG WON at 11/4 (Tracked leader until 3rd, tracked leading pair, 2nd again after 3 out, led travelling well approaching next, came clear before last, won easily by 9 lengths)

Monday's pick runs in the...

2.25 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Sarvi @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 13-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ Handicap Hurdle over 1m7½f on Good ground worth £4159 to the winner... 

Why?

This 4 yr old filly was third over this course and distance just 6 days ago and would certainly have fared better but for a mistake at the last. A better jumping display under the same jockey off the same mark today should be enough for her to at least be in the mix on the run-in.

Her trainer, Jim Goldie, is 11 from 69 (15.9% SR) for 21.07pts (+30.5% ROI) with sub-12/1 Musselburgh handicap hurdlers since 2008 and to ensure we're not relying on old data, we'll focus on those from 2013 onwards who are 7/40 (17.5% SR) for 18.63pts (+46.6% ROI).

And of those 40...

  • those who raced in the previous 45 days are 6/36 (16.6%) for 17.82pts (+49.5%)
  • those with a top 3 finish LTO are 3/12 (25%) for 13.16pts (+109.7%)
  • top 3 finish LTO in the previous 45 days = 3/11 (27.3%) for 14.16pts (+128.8%)
  • those ridden by Callum Bewley : 2/9 (22.2%) for 7.28pts (+80.9%)
  • Bewley + top 3 LTO = 2/3 (66.6%) for 13.28pts (+442.6%), with all three having raced in the previous 45 days.

Also, over the last two years, Jim Goldie's handicappers turned back out after just 4 to 10 days rest are 33/199 (16.6% SR) for 253.2pts (+127.2% ROI), from which...

  • 3-5 yr olds are 21/105 (20%) for 76pts (+72.3%)
  • Same OR as LTO : 16/101 (15.8%) for 209.3pts (+207.3%)
  • Same Class as LTO : 19/100 (19%) for 233.6pts (+233.6%)
  • Within o.5f of LTO trip : 18/98 (18.4%) for 110.2pts (+112.4%)
  • Females are 14/69 (20.3%) for 102.8pts (+148.9%)
  • Same jockey as LTO : 13/63 (20.6%) for 48.2pts (+76.6%)
  • Class 4 : 6/43 (14%) for 122.8pts (+285.5%)
  • at Musselburgh : 4/16 (25%) for 3.6pts (+14.4%)
  • and 3-5 yr old females at the same OR, class and distance as LTO are 3/9 (33.3%) for 16.44pts (+182.7%)

...giving us a 1pt win bet on Sarvi @ 7/2 BOG as was available from pretty much everywhere at 6.50pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.25 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!