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Sat TV Trends: 30th March 2019

It’s flat action all the way for the ITV cameras this weekend as the new turf season gets going at Doncaster on Saturday, with the ultra-competitive Lincoln Handicap as the feature, while there is also decent all-weather racing at Kempton with that include the Listed Magnolia Stakes.

The ITV cameras are showing seven races across the two venues and, as always, we’ve got it all covered with key trends and stats.

 

KEMPTON Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

2.05 – Matchbook Magnolia Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 1m2f ITV4

12/12 – Aged 6 or younger
11/12 – Had won over 1m2f before
10/12 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/12 – Returned 3/1 or shorter in the betting
9/12 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
9/12 – Drawn in stalls 1-4 (inc)
8/12 – Unplaced last time out
8/12 – Last ran 5 months or more ago
7/12 – Winning favourites
5/12 – Winning distance – ½ length or less
5/12 – Had won at Kempton before
4/12 – Unplaced favourites
4/12 – Irish bred
3/12 – Trained by William Haggas
3/12 – Trained by John Gosden
Fabricate (13/8) won the race in 2018
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 3/1

2.40 - Better Odds With Matchbook Handicap Cl2 6f ITV4

Just 6 previous runnings
6/6 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
6/6 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
6/6 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
5/6 – Carried between 8-10 and 9-5
5/6 – Ran within the last 2 months
4/6 – Horses from stall 6 placed
3/6 – Winners from stall 6
3/6 – Rated between 87-91
2/6 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 6 runnings is 4/1


3.15 –
Matchbook Betting Podcast Rosebery Handicap (London Middle Distance Series Qualifier) Cl2 1m3f ITV4

15/15 – Had won over at least 1m1f before
12/15 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
11/15 – Had won between 2-4 times before
11/15 – Rated between 89 and 99
10/15 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
10/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
9/15 – Carried 8-13 or more in weight
9/15 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
8/15 – Unplaced favourites
8/15 – Aged 4 years-old
7/15 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
5/15 – Won last time out
3/15 – Ran at Lingfield last time out
2/15 – Trained by Mark Johnston
2/15 – Winning favourites
The average SP in the last 10 runnings is 17/2

 

 

DONCASTER Horse Racing Trends (ATR/ITV4)

1.50 - Unibet Cammidge Trophy (Listed Race) Cl1 6f ITV4

Your first 30 days for just £1

14/15 – Aged 7 or younger
13/15 – Aged between 4-6 years-old
13/15 – Had won no more than 5 times before
13/15 – Carried 9-2 or more in weight
13/15 – Returned 14/1 or shorter in the betting
11/15 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
11/15 – Raced at Doncaster, Ascot, Lingfield or Windsor last time out
10/15 – Had won over 6f before
10/15 – Last ran 4 months or longer ago
9/15 – Rated 102+
9/15 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
9/15 – Had raced at Doncaster before
8/15 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
7/15 – Unplaced favourites
3/15 – Won last time out
3/15 – Winning favourites (or joint)
3/15 – Had won at Doncaster before
No winners from stalls 1 or 2 in the last 10 runnings
6 of the last 10 winners came between stalls 9-16 (inc)
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 9/1
Note: The 2007 running was staged at Newcastle
Note: The 2006 running was staged at Redcar
Perfect Pasture (4/1 jfav) took the race in 2018

2.25 – Unibet Spring Mile (Handicap) Cl2 1m ITV4

14/17 – Carried 8-13 or more
14/17 – Aged 4 years-old
13/17 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
14/17 – Finished fourth or worse last time out
11/17 – Won over a mile before
9/17 – Won from a single-figure draw
2/17 – Winning favourites
2/17 – Won last time out
1/17 – Won a race at Doncaster before
2/17 – Winners from stalls 3-7 (inclusive)
Lord Of The Rock won the race in 2016
Richard Fahey has trained the winner in 2010 & 2014
Just 1 winner older than 6 in the last 17 years
High Acclaim (50/1) win the race in 2018
Lord Of The Rock won the race in 2016

3.00 – Unibet Doncaster Mile Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 1m ITV4

Just 6 previous running
6/6 – Last ran 4+ months ago
6/6 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
5/6 – Rated 106+
5/6 – Aged between 5-7 years-old
5/6 – Had won over at least 1m before
5/6 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
4/6 – Winners from stalls 2 or 4 (2 each)
4/6 – Had won 6+ times before
3/6 – Winning favourites
3/6 – Ran at Ascot last time out
2/6 – Trained by Roger Varian (2 of last 3)
1/6 – Won last time out
Zabeel Prince (10/11 fav) won the race in 2018

3.35 – Unibet Lincoln (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 1m ITV4

16/16 – Aged 6 or younger
15/16 – Carried 9-4 or less in weight
14/16 – Had won over at least 1m before
13/16 – Had won between 2-4 times before
12/16 – Drawn in stall 9 or higher
11/16 – Having their first run of the flat season
10/16 – Unplaced favourites
10/16 – Returned a double figure price in the betting
10/16 – Winning distance – 1 length or more
9/16 – Aged 4 years-old
8/16 – Had raced at Doncaster before
8/16 – Officially rated between 95-99
8/16 – Placed first or second last time out
7/16 – Raced at either Newmarket or Lingfield last time out
6/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
6/16 – Won last time out
5/16 – Placed horses from stall 12 (1 winner)
4/16 - Placed horses from stall 16 (1 winner)
3/16 – Winning favourites
3/16 – Trained by William Haggas
2/16 – Trained by Mark Tompkins
2/16 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/16 – Trained by John Quinn
Addeybb (5/1) won the race in 2018
8 of the last 9 winners carried between 9-0 and 9-4 in weight
Just 1 winner has carried 9-10 in the last 33 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 16 runnings is 14/1
Note: The 2006 renewal was run at Redcar and the 2007 running was staged at Newcastle

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Sat TV Trends: 23rd March 2019

Another busy day this Saturday with the ITV4 cameras at Newbury and Kelso – we’ve seven races across the two venues to take in.

As always, we’ve got it all covered from a trends angle.

 

NEWBURY Horse Racing Trends

2.05 – Insure With Be Wiser Handicap Chase Cl3 3m2f ITV4

Just 8 previous runnings
7/8 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
7/8 – Placed in the top 5 last time out
7/8 – Had won between 1-2 times over fences before
7/8 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
6/8 – Carried 11-3 or less in weight
6/8 – Had won over 2m7f (or further) before (fences)
5/8 – Aged 9 years-old
5/8 – Favourites that finished in the top 4
4/8 – Had raced over fences at Newbury before
4/8 – Irish bred
1/8 – Winning favourites
1/8 – Won last time out
The average winning SP in the last 8 runnings is 15/2

 

2.40 –Be Wiser Handicap Hurdles Cl2 2m4f ITV4

10/10 – Won no more than twice over hurdles before
10/10 – Raced in the last 6 weeks
9/10 – Favourites placed in the top three
9/10 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
8/10 – Didn’t win last time out
7/10 – Rated 113 or higher
7/10 – Carried 10-12 or more in weight
3/10 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
2/10 – Trained by Lucy Wadham
2/10 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 7/1

3.15 - EBF & TBA Mares´ "National Hunt" Novices´ Hurdle Finale Limited Handicap (Listed Race) Cl1 2m5f ITV4

Your first 30 days for just £1

13/14 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
13/14 – Won between 1-2 times before (hurdles)
10/14 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
9/14 – Aged 6 years-old
9/14 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
8/14 – Won last time out
6/14 – Unplaced favourites
5/14 – Winning favourites
4/14 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/14 – Ran at Huntingdon last time out
2/14 – Trained by Oliver Sherwood
2/14 – Trained by Charlie Longsdon
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/1
The last 12 winners carried 11-3 or less in weight
Trainer Nicky Henderson has a 28% record with his hurdlers at the track

KELSO Horse Racing Trends

1.50 – EBF Mares’ Novices’ Chase (Qualifier For The EBF Mares’ Chase Series) Cl3 (5yo+) 2m 5 1/2f ITV4

No previous runnings
Trainer Paul Nicholls has a 33% record (5 from 15) with his chasers at the track
Trainer Michael Scudamore is 2 from 5 (40%) with his chasers at the track
Trainer Iain Jardine has a 29% record with his chasers at the track

2.25 – Bernhard Lighting Rig Handicap Hurdle Cl2 (4yo+) 2m ITV4

7/8 – Won between 1-2 times over hurdles before
7/8 – Unplaced last time out
6/8 – Had raced at Kelso before
6/8 – Aged 7 or 8 years-old
6/8 – Had raced in the last 5 weeks
6/8 – Carried 10-10 or more in weight
4/8 – Unplaced favourites
4/8 – Aged 7 years-old
3/8 – Winning favourites
Trainer Paul Nicholls has a 50% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Tom George has a 50% record with his hurdlers at the track

3.00 – Liz Adams Memorial Handicap Chase Cl2 (5yo+) 3m2f ITV4

4 previous runnings
4/4 – Aged 9 or younger
4/4 – Unplaced last time out
3/4 – Had raced at the track before
3/4 – Carried 10-12 or less in weight
3/4 – Had run at Kelso before
2/4 – Ran at Kelso last time out
1/4 – Winning favourites
Trainer Tom George has a 60% record with his chasers at the track
Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies has a 44% record with his chasers at the track
Trainer Paul Nicholls has a 33% record with his chasers at the track
The average winning SP in the last 4 years is 15/2

3.35 – Paxton’s Exclusively Kverneland Handicap Hurdle Cl2 (4yo+) 3m2f ITV4

Only 5 previous runnings
3 of the last 5 winners carried 11-7 or more in weight
Trainer Lucinda Russell has won 2 of the last 5 runnings
The last 3 winners were ridden by a conditional jockey
3 of the last 5 winners were aged 7 or 8 years-old
4 of the last 5 winners returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
4 of the last 5 winners carried 11-1 or more
2 of the last 3 winners were aged 7 years-old
1 winning favourite in the last 5 runnings
3 of the last 4 winners were placed at Haydock last time out
Trainer Paul Nicholls has a 50% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Tom George has a 50% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Keith Dalgleish has a 31% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Nicky Richards has a 27% record with his hurdlers at the track
The average winning SP in the last 5 years is 5/1

 

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