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Stat of the Day, 2nd October 2018

Monday's Pick was...

4.10 Catterick : Albert Boy @ 11/4 BOG 3rd at 5/1 (Tracked winner, joined winner 4f out, ridden 2f out, no extra and lost 2nd inside final furlong) 

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

2.00 Sedgefield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Compatriot @ 11/4 BOG  

In an 11-runner, Class 5, Handicap Hurdle for 3yo+ over 2m½f on Good To Firm ground, worth £3119 to the winner...  

Why?

On a poor looking day of racing, where I can see many short-ish priced horses winning, the price taken about our pick might actually look decent for a 4 yr old gelding who won last time out at Newton Abbot 22 days ago and the runner-up that day has since gone on to win a Class 4 contest.

That LTO win was over slightly longer (2m1f) than today's and the victorious jockey, Aidan Coleman, has retained the ride and indeed makes the journey here for just the one contest, which may or may not be significant.

That said, AC doesn't venture to Sedgefield too often anyway, this will be only his 12th effort over hurdles at this track since the start of 2011. Mind you, he is 5 from 11 (45.5% SR) for 1.47pts (+13.3% ROI) in that time, including...

  • 5/6 (83.3%) for 6.47pts (+107.8%) at odds shorter than 7/2
  • 3/6 (50%) for 3.06pts (+51%) in handicaps
  • 2/4 (50%) for 2.18pts (+54.5%) at Class 5

Aidan is also 6/24 (25% SR) for 1.81pts (+7.53% ROI) over hurdles for trainer Olly Murphy including 3 wins for 15 (20%) for 3.67pts (+24.4% ROI) in handicaps and the yard itself seems to be going well with 5 winners from 16 (31.25%) for 2.83pts (+17.7%) over the last 30 days, including a winner and a runner-up from two at Newton Abbot yesterday, taking the 30 day hurdles tally to 4/11 (36.4%) for 5.53pts (+50.3%)

In fact, backing all of Olly Murphy's hurdlers so far in 2018 would give you 32 winners from 171 (18.7% SR) for 25.2pts (+14.7% ROI) and these include...

  • males at 26/126 (20.6%) for 50.9pts (+40.4%)
  • at 10/3 and shorter : 24/59 (40.7%) for 5.39pts (+9.14%)
  • over 2m/2m½f : 8.45 (17.8%) for 47.1pts (+104.7%)
  • and LTO winners are 11/24 (45.8%) for 1.39pts (+5.8%)

Most of today's stats show healthy strike rates, but the ROIs don't seem overly impressive. That doesn't deter me, it just suggests that the runners are well backed and go off quite short, so taking the early price might well grab us a bit of value...

...by placing... a 1pt win bet on Compatriot @ 11/4 BOG , a price offered by Bet365 & BetVictor at 5.40pm on Monday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.00 Sedgefield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Monday 23rd April

WINDSOR – APRIL 23

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £80.30 (6 favourites – 2 winners & 4 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 45.5% units went through – 10/1 – 5/1 – 7/2 (5/2)

Race 2: 36.8% of the remaining units when through – 9/2 – 16/1 – 9/2 (5/2)

Race 3: 42.3% of the remaining units went through – 4/1 – 25/1 – 10/3 (11/4)

Race 4: 38.9% of the remaining units went through – 8/1 – 5/1 – 25/1 (11/4)

Race 5: 66.5% of the remaining units went through – 5/4* & 14/1

Race 6: 49.5% of the units secured the dividend – 5/2* - 20/1 – 10/1

 

*Speculative punters were entitled to believe that were in line for a fine dividend after four races on last year’s corresponding card, the first quartet of favourites having finished out of the frame.

The Placepot was worth £26.50 by then but with one third of the surviving units (after four races) making it through to the end, the dividend only reached £80.30, even though three of the five successful Placepot position in races five and six were retuned at 20/1, 14/1 & 10/1.

Unfortunately, the two winning favourites put paid to any thoughts of a three/four figure sum being recorded.

The fifth race favourite accounted for 65.6% of the total Placepot units in that event, whilst 40.9% of the remaining units in the Placepot finale were riding on the market leader.

As a wise man once told me, it rarely (if ever) pays to presume!

Hopefully you joined me in winning a few quid on our favourite bet yesterday.  Upwards and onward….

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Windsor: 

Leg 1 (4.50): 14 (Fairway To Heaven), 3 (Nuini) & 12 (Ubla)

Leg 2 (5.20): 5 (Blasim), 2 (Nina Petrovna) & 1 (Karalini)

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Leg 3 (5.50): 7 (Kinglami), 6 (Acclaim The Nation) & 5 (Rebecca Rocks)

Leg 4 (6.20): 2 (Stream Song) & 1 (Zoraya)

Leg 5 (6.50): 1 (Fajjaj) & 2 (Loyal Promise)

Leg 6 (7.20): 11 (Iconic Belle), 7 (Prerogative) & 10 (Strictly Art)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

4.50:  All three winners have carried a maximum weight of 9-1 and the trio which make most appeal include dual course and distance winner FAIRWAY TO HEAVEN, NUTINI (1/1 at Windsor on good to soft ground – albeit running from higher in the handicap) and UBLA in a race which should not prove difficult to win.

Favourite factor: The last two favourites have finished out of the frame since the inaugural 5/2 market leader obliged three years ago.

Record of the three course winners in the opening race:

1/1—Nutini (good to soft)

2/13—Perfect Pastime (good to firm & heavy)

2/4—Fairway To Heaven (good to firm & good to soft)

 

5.20: The brief trends point towards BLASIM running a big race with trainer David Evans having won both renewals to date with fillies that were making their second appearance.  BLASIM ran well enough to snare a bronze medal at the first time of asking at Chelmsford and would only have to offer a moderate amount of improvement here to go close.  KARALINI has to enter calculations with Mick Channon’s runners going so well at present, whilst Archie Watson saddles his third runner on turf (NINA PETROVNA), the first two having prevailed.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 2/1 favourite secured a Placepot position by finished second in a ‘short field’ contest.  New readers might like to know that the term ‘short field’ relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.  Unfortunately, last year’s 5/2 market leader failed to follow suit.

 

5.50: Four-year-olds have won six of the last eight renewals whereby plenty of respect is paid to REBECCA ROCKS, though better conditions would have added confidence.  KINGLAMI has finished ‘ in the three’ in 6/11 assignments at this venues, statistics which include three victories. Connections would prefer even softer ground for John O’Shea’s raider who has won 6/12 on soft/heavy ground.  Northern raider ACCLAIM THE NATION represents Eric Alston who has saddled his last two runners to winning effect.

Favourite factor: Just two (15/8 & 5/2) market leaders have obliged to date, whilst only three of the twelve favourites have secured toteplacepot positions.

Record of the course winners in the field:

1/2—Kinglami (good to firm – soft – heavy)

 

6.20: Plenty of top stables are represented here though the jungle drums appear to be beating for STREAM SONG who is the latest inmate off the conveyor belt that belongs to John Gosden.  John has a good few winners last week, albeit that he failed to live up to some recent years when taking the Newmarket and Newbury meetings by storm.  That said, STREAM SONG seems to be the only horse here that exchange players are interested in, whilst I will tentatively offer ZORAYA as the alternative each way play.

Favourite factor: This is the first of the new races on the Windsor card

 

6.50: Yielding ground offers no concern to connections of FAJJAJ on the face of what we have witnessed thus far and with plenty of fancy entries to his name, Hugo Palmer’s Dawn Approach colt should make short work of this field, albeit LOYAL PROMISING looks a half decent prospect for the Martyn Meade team.  Stable companion Fabianski could outrun his odds I guess, though Imaginitive might snare the bronze medal on this occasion.

Favourite factor: The second of the new contests on the Windsor programme.

 

7.20: Shorter priced horses only make limited appeal in our last race whereby I will include three runners which hail from in-form stables to hopefully land the dividend for us, namely ICONIC BELLE (Mick Channon), PREROGATIVE (Tony Carroll) and STRICTLY ART (Alan Bailey).

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 5/2 market leader duly obliged.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday 13th April

AINTREE – APRIL 13

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £205.80 (10 favourites – 1 winner – 4 placed – 5 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:

Race 1: 47.8% units went through – 10/1 – 8/1*** - 12/1 – 8/1*** (8/1***)

Race 2: 42.5% of the remaining units when through – 16/1 – 9/4** - 7/1 (9/4**)

Race 3: 94.9% of the remaining units went through – 8/13* & 9/2

Race 4: 61.3% of the remaining units went through – 4/1 – 10/3* - 14/1

Race 5: 6.3% of the remaining units went through – 50/1 – 22/1 – 66/1 – 12/1 (2 x 8/1**)

Race 6: 47.7% of the units secured the dividend – 3/1 – 9/1 – 11/1 (11/4)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Aintree: 

Leg 1 (1.45): 2 (Who Dares Wins), 9 (Lough Derg Spirit) & 6 (Storm Home)

Leg 2 (2.20): 10 (Scarlet Dragon), 4 (Global Citizen) & 13 (Vision Des Flos)

Leg 3 (2.50): 7 (Terrefort), 10 (Ms Parfois) & 1 (Black Corton)

Leg 4 (3.25): 1 (Balko Des Flos) & 4 (Min)

Leg 5 (4.05): 22 (Theatre Terriroty), 15 (Ballyalton), 3 (Top Gamble) & 11 (Ultragold)

Leg 6 (4.40): 11 (Santini) & 2 (Chef Des Obeaux)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.45: Six-year-olds have won seven of the last eleven renewals, with vintage representatives having secured the first three places last year via just 36% of the total number of runners, a result which brought about my 10/1 winner and 92/1 forecast via a trio of nominations.  This year’s short list comprises of WHO DARES WINS, LOUGH DERG SPIRIT and STORM HOME, with the trio listed in marginal preference at the time of writing.

Favourite factor: 13 of the last 16 winners were sent off at odds ranging between 10/1 and 50/1 with successful favourites only conspicuous by their absence.  The previous nine favourites had finished out with the washing before the 15/2 market leader secured the bronze medal in 2013.  The race reverted to type in 2014 when the 4/1 market leader finished back in 14th place when 19 completed the course.  Four of the subsequent seven favourites (via three renewals) secured Placepot positions without winning their respective events.

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Aintree record of the three course winners in the opening contest:

1/4—Court Minstrel (good to soft)

1/3—Massini’s Trap (good)

1/2—Cornborough (good to soft)

 

2.20: Five-year-olds have a fantastic record in this race (the vintage have claimed 19 of the last 33 renewals--representatives finished 1-2-3-4 eight years ago and 1-2-3-4-5 in 2010 + the forecast positions six years back.  Vintage representatives filled the first seven positions two years ago, albeit via 82% of the total number of runners. To make the figures stand out further still, it should be noted that vintage representatives in 2013 were conspicuous only by their absence. Last year’s three big outsiders (on behalf of the vintage) failed to have a say in the finish, though the likes of SCARLET DRAGON and VISION DES FLOS look sure to go close this afternoon.  That said, Ben Pauling’s hat trick seeker GLOBAL CITIZEN is a live threat and no mistake.

Favourite factor: Four favourites have won this event via the last 18 renewals, with eight of the last ten market leaders having secured toteplacepot positions.

Aintree record of the course winner in the second race:

1/1—Lalor (good)

 

2.50: Seven-year-olds have won nine of the last twenty renewals of this event, yet vintage representatives were only conspicuous by their absence twelve months ago when Might Bite took the honours. Nicky Henderson (Might Bite last year) has saddled no less than fourteen winners on the corresponding day of the meeting during the last seven years! The Seven Barrows based trainer has offered the green light to TERREFORT this time around with a favourite’s chance, though the chances of seven-year-old raiders MS PARFOIS and BLACK CORTON are (predictably) respected.  There are worse outsiders on the card than soft ground course winner Captain Chaos at around the 28/1 mark, that’s for sure.

Favourite factor: Going back a long time, 15 of the last 28 renewals (53.6%) have been won by market leaders, whilst 27 of those gold medallists were returned in single figures.  Eight of the last fifteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions.

Aintree record of the course winner in the third event:

1/1—Captain Chaos (soft)

 

3.25: The last twelve winners have been aged between seven and nine and the trend looks like being extended on this occasion as only a 33/1 chance in the field is offered the chance of breaking the trend. For those who keep records, this stat is still worth its weight in gold because with just two qualifiers two years ago, 10/1 winner God’s Own scored even though the 1/5 market leader (Vatour) fell when going well when trying to extend the ratio.  Willie Mullins has been going through something of a quiet time by his high standards and there is every chance that his representative MIN could get turned over by BALKO DES FLOS despite being made favourite for the contest.  Henry De Bromhead’s ‘Ryanair’ winner was oh so impressive at Cheltenham last month and with MIN stepping up in trip here, I would rather stay with the horse that is proven over the distance, despite the fact that Davy Russell’s mount is dropping back a quarter of a mile after his Prestbury Park success.

Favourite factor: The first successful winning favourite of this event was Remittance Man for Nicky Henderson at odds of 4/9 back in 1992.  A further ten market leaders have won, whilst nine of the fifteen market leaders during the last thirteen years have claimed toteplacepot positions.

Aintree record of the course winner in the fourth race:

1/1—Sizing Granite

 

4.05: 14 of the last 17 winners of this event (run over the Grand National fences) have carried weights of 10-12 or less, whilst eleven of the last fifteen winners scored at 50/1-50/1-33/1-25/1-22/1-22/1-16/1-14/1-14/1-11/1-10/1.  Nine and ten-year-olds have won nine of the last sixteen renewals whilst securing 35 of the 64 (55%) available Placepot positions between them.  Only two Irish trained winners have emerged in the last 38 years.  Putting the stats and facts together produces an overnight ‘short list’ of THEATRE TERRITORY, BALLYALTON, TOP GAMBLE and last year’s winner ULTRAGOLD. If there is a horse is the field capable of defying the weight stat (aside from Ultragold and Top Gamble) it could be O O SEVEN who ran well to finish fourth in the race last year, especially when digesting the fact that Nicky Henderson has saddled three of the last five winners.

Favourite factor: Just one (joint) favourite has won the ‘Topham’ via the last nineteen contests.  Only four of the eighteen favourites during the last fourteen years have claimed Placepot positions.

Aintree record of the three course winners in the field:

1/2—Ultragold (good)

2/6—Eastlake (good soft)

1/5—Highland Lodge (soft)

 

4.40: Six-year-olds hold the call in the toteplacepot finale (winners of seven of the last ten contests) as vintage representatives secured the first four places eight years back and silver and bronze medals six years ago.   Throw the 2013 1-2-3-4 result and a 1-2-3 (two years ago – 1-3-4 last year) via vintage representatives and you can probably guess why my overnight duo against the other twelve contenders consists of SANTINI and XCHEF DES OBEAUX.  Both horses are trained by Nicky Henderson who also saddles the main threat, namely OK CORRAL.

Favourite factor: Six renewals had slipped by since a favourite prevailed before the 2013 market leader fought back on behalf of punters.  The last four favourites have been beaten, whilst eight of the fourteen favourites have finished in the frame (exact science) in as many years.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday 23rd March

NEWBURY – MARCH 23

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £1,464.50 (All six favourites finished out of the frame!)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:

 

Race 1: 31.6% units went through – 7/4 (Win only – unplaced fav at 11/8)

Race 2: 32.1% of the remaining units when through – 8/1, 8/1 & 11/2 (9/4)

Race 3: 23.0% of the remaining units went through – 10/1, 33/1 & 8/1 (4/1)

Race 4: 27.7% of the remaining units went through – 12/1 & 7/2 (7/4)

Race 5: 20.3% of the remaining units went through – 7/2 & 9/1 (13/8)

Race 6: 38.2% of the units secured the dividend – 10/3, 9/1 & 33/1 (11/8)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Newbury: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 3 (Molineaux) & 2 (Euxton Lane)

Leg 2 (2.30): 11 (Morning Reggie), 2 (Halo Moon) & 3 (Private Malone)

Leg 3 (3.05): 10 (Fizzlestix), 5 (Christmas In April) & 4 (Darius Des Bois)

Leg 4 (3.40): 6 (Another Frontier), 1 (Ice Cool Champs) & 2 (Le Boizelo)

Leg 5 (4.10): 2 (Moabit) & 7 (Early Du Lemo)

Leg 6 (4.45): 3 (Alfstar), 1 (Jimmy The Jetplane) & 2 (Vivaldo Collonges)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

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2.00: I live less than an hour away from Newbury and can report that we had several hours of overnight rain which if Newbury experienced, heavy ground could be the order of the day rather than the official “soft” call overnight.  Upwards and onward with MOLINEAUX expected to ‘enjoy’ the conditions more than most, connections possibly having to fear a challenge from EUXTON LANE at the business end of proceedings.

Favourite factor: One of the three market leaders has claimed a Placepot position to date but even then, the 1/3 favourite was obviously expected to win the relevant contest which the jolly failed to do.

 

2.30: All eight winners thus far have carried a minimum burden of 11-2 but with MORNING REGGIE sitting just 16 ounces under the ‘superior’ handicap barrier, I’m willing to offer Oliver Sherwood’s raider a chance.  There will certainly be worse 12/1 chances on the card though that ‘trade press quote’ might prove to be a tad fanciful by flag fall I’ll wager. I would have made Kincora Fort a danger but for noting that he was taken out of a ‘heavy ground’ event recently with the trainer suggesting that conditions were unsuitable for the horse.  Accordingly, I’m opting for the likes of HALO MOON and PRIVATE MALONE to offer most resistance up the home straight.

Favourite factor: Five of the ten favourites have finished in the frame via eight renewals, statistics which include two (9/2 & 11/4) winners.

 

3.05: Six-year-olds have secured four of the last five contests, whilst six of the last seven gold medallists carried a minimum burden of 11-6.  CHRISTMAS IN APRIL boasts ticks in each of the trend boxes with Nicky Henderson appearing to have found a decent opportunity for his event, albeit the ground is something of an unknown factor.  Nicky also saddles DARIUS DES BOIS which clouds the picture to a fashion though either way, FIZZLESTIX looks a major threat, albeit the six-year-olds falls short via the weight trend by some margin, especially with James Bowen taking off a useful three pounds in the plate.

Favourite factor: Four of the ten market leaders have secured Placepot positions via eight renewals, statistics which include one 7/2 joint favourite.

 

3.40: Seven-year-olds have won four of the last seven renewals and all four vintage representatives on this occasion have proved that they can act under testing conditions.  Given that Bobo Mac has trouble negotiating obstacles quite frequently, I will opt for the other trio which are listed in marginal order of preference at the time of writing; namely ANOTHER FRONTIER, ICE COOL CHAMPS and LE BOIZELO.

Favourite factor: Four favourites have won during the last seven years, whilst two of the other three winners during that period were returned at just 5/1 and 7/2.  Last year’s 12/1 gold medallist upset the applecart to a fashion.

 

4.10: Bryony Frost boasted fabulous aggregate January/February stats of 10/35 in the plate but the brilliant young rider has only been given six opportunities this month (one winner), which just goes to show how tough this game is for pilots to get decent rides.  Bryony appears to have been given a good chance here however aboard MOABIT who has won on both occasions that Bryony has been given the green light to ride.  EARLY DU LEMO is the ‘dark horse’ in the contest.

Favourite factor: Ten of the last eleven winners have scored at a top price of 7/1, statistics which include three successful favourites.

 

4.45: We should land the Placepot dividend if opting for the trio of ALFSTAR, JIMMY THE JETPLANE and VIVALDO COLLONGES against Billy Merriot in a more open Hunter Chase than we normally anticipate.  The latter named raider represents last year’s winning connections but the ground might have gone against the twelve-year-old overnight.

Favourite factor: As usual in Hunter Chase events, favourites have a good record having won five renewals during the last eleven years, with eight gold medallists having scored at a top price of 4/1.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/2—Monetaire (soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Specific details for Newbury on Friday:

It rained for several hours here in the west-country overnight whereby you should check the going before placing any bets.  “Soft” was the official overnight call but there could well be heavy areas if Newbury has endured the amount of rain we received in Bristol.

 

SEDGEFIELD ON FRIDAY – IF YOU ARE PLAYING THE PLACEPOT AT THE MEETING:

Last year’s dividend: £172.60 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:

Race 1: 31.8% units went through – 5/1, 4/1**, 40/1 (4/1**)

Race 2: 98.7% of the remaining units when through – 13/8, 11/10* & 5/1

Race 3: 18.3% of the remaining units went through – 10/1, 28/1 & 11/1 (9/4)

Race 4: 23.1% of the remaining units went through – 6/1, 9/2 & 11/2 (2/1)

Race 5: 51.2% of the remaining units went through – 11/8* & 10/1

Race 6: 62.3% of the units secured the dividend – 8/13* (Win only event)

 

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday 13th March

CHELTENHAM – MARCH 13

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £436.70 (7 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are listed in brackets:

 

Race 1: 39.3% units went through – 25/1, 3/1**, 8/1 (3/1**)

Race 2: 87.1% of the remaining units when through – 1/4*, 12/1 25/1

Race 3: 42.8% of the remaining units went through – 9/1, 5/1*, 15/2, 33/1

Race 4: 30.1% of the remaining units went through – 5/1, 16/1, 6/1 (2/1)

Race 5: 95.2% of the remaining units went through – 7/2, 11/4, 6/4*

Race 6: Just 3.9% of the units secured the dividend – 16/1, 50/1, 33/1 (4/1)

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Cheltenham: 

Leg 1 (1.30): 6 (Kalashnikov) & 4 (Getabird)

Leg 2 (2.10): 5 (Saint Calvados) & 2 (Footpad)

Leg 3 (2.50): 10 (Ramses De Teillee), 17 (Cogry), 4 (Shantou Flyer) & 18 (Eamon An Cnoic)

Leg 4 (3.30): 1 (Buveur D’Air) & 4 (Elgin)

Leg 5 (4.10): 1 (Apples Jade), 6 (La Bague Au Roi) & 8 (Midnight Tour)

Leg 6 (4.50): 5 (Jury Duty), 9 (No Comment), 16 (Ms Parfois) & 4 (Impulsive Star)

Suggested stake: 384 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.30: Two things to say before I light the blue touch paper.  Firstly with four different courses to race on, the relevant course winners listed under each race have not been identified as C/D winners at Cheltenham this week because of the different 'routes' relating to so many horses and events, notwithstanding the ground which will probably dictate matters these next four days more than anything else.  Those damned bookmakers to go into the week with an edge, albeit the ground for most of this season has been soft or worse given the weather conditions we have endured.  Upwards and onward by revealing that five and six-year-olds have won 14 of the last 15 renewals of this opening event between them, securing 41/45 each way/toteplacepot positions during the study period.  If you want to venture back further in time, 39/45 winners have represented the two vintages. Melon was not as short as GETABIRD twelve months ago when beaten but it could be argued that KALASHNIKOV is the only serious rival this time around; hence the average 7/4 quote in most ‘books’ in the dead of night.  Despite the presence of plenty of half decent each way types in the field, I will leave you to determine which horse might cause something of a shock in the opening event as I home in on the front two horses in the market.

Favourite factor: Fate of recent favourites: 26 market leaders—5 winners—9 placed—12 unplaced. First three in the betting: 71 runners--12 winners--21 placed--38 unplaced.

Cheltenham record of course winners in the 'Supreme Novices':

2/3—Slate House (good & soft)

1/2—Western Ryder (soft)

 

2.10: FOOTPAD is a worthy favourite for the Arkle as Willie Mullins looks to win the race for the third time in four years.  His fencing has looked well up to the mark thus far, though I doubt he will have been rushed into the obstacles as much as is potentially on the cards today with SAINT CALVADOS in the field.  I have loved watching Harry Whittington’s five-year-old almost hurdling his fences this year, though that tendency is of course, dangerous at the top level when races are run so quickly.  What has impressed me even more in his way of turning up the gas in the second third of his races which definitely tends to get rivals flustered and it will be interesting to see if that happens again today.  Petit Mouchoir has definitely been ‘iffy’ when negotiating the larger obstacles thus far, which is very much one of the reasons I prefer the first named pair in what should be a fabulous spectacle.  Brain Power might have better suited to Aintree, especially with the ground probably being more in his favour at the Liverpool venue.

Favourite factor: Fate of recent favourites: 23 market leaders—7 winners—6 placed—10 unplaced. First three in the betting: 70 runners--14 winners--18 placed--38 unplaced.

 

2.50: Fourteen of the last nineteen winners carried a maximum burden of 10-12 whereby the recent dual winning efforts of Un Temps Pour Tout in the race are all the more impressive.  David Pipe has offered the green light to a pair of heavy ground inmates this time around and it would be a brave person to put lines through the chances of RAMSES DE TEILLEE and EAMON AN CNOIC as David bids for his fourth winner of the race in the last eleven years.  COGRY will probably be in another parish compared to the front runners for most of the race, though few will be finishing stronger I’ll wager.  SHANTOU FLYER completes my ‘short list’ against the field, especially as horses high in the handicap of late have been making their mark as opposed to days of old.

Favourite factor: Fate of recent favourites: 27 market leaders—1 winner—12 placed—14 unplaced. First three in the betting: 71 runners--10 winners--20 places--41 unplaced.

Cheltenham record of course winners in the Handicap Chase:

2/6—Shantou Flyer (good & soft)

1/5—O O Seven (good)

2/6—Vicente (good & good to soft)

2/6—Singlefarmpayment (good & heavy)

1/8—Coo Star Sivola (good to soft)

2/9—Cogry (good & soft)

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3.30: I suggested that the ground looked like being too lively for BUVEUR D’AIR twelve months ago whereby his chance to defend his crown successfully is there for all to see this time around.  A winner of nine of this ten races over timber to date, Nicky Henderson’s grand servant could go on to emulate Nicky’s hat trick hero in the race, namely See You Then who scored between 1985 & 1987 putting the trainer and jockey Steve Smith Eccles in the shop window.  Money has dried up quite remarkably for Faugheen these last 24 hours, whereby ELGIN could sneak into the frame at a big price, whilst similar comments apply to last year’s runner up My Tent Or Yours.  Willie Mullins saddles some old faces but none of them should be able to budge the champion from his perch under these conditions.

Favourite factor: Fate of recent favourites: 24 market leaders—9 winners—6 placed—9 unplaced. First three in the betting: 69 runners--11 winners--25 placed--33 unplaced.

Cheltenham record of course winners in the 'Champion Hurdle':

1/2—Buveur D’Air (good to soft)

1/2—Elgin (soft)

2/2—Faugheen (good & good to soft)

1/6—My Tent Or Yours (soft)

1/3—Wicklow Brave (soft)

2/2—Yorkhill (2 x good)

 

4.10: As a winner of ten of her fourteen races to date, APPLES JADE has a genuine case of boasting that she has done most to project trainer Gordon Elliot to the top of the tree in his chosen profession and there is every reason to suspect that Gordon’s six-year-old mare will improve her ratio this afternoon.  That said, the odds are prohibitive whereby I am offering a massive outsider to consider form a win and place perspective, namely MIDNIGHT TOUR.  Few trainers have had as much each way success with big priced runners in recent years as Alan King and 66/1 (available with plenty of firms this morning) is something of an insult to Davy Russell’s mount in my considered opinion.  LA BAGUE AU ROI more than deserves her chance in the race.

Favourite factor: The ten favourites have snared six golds and one silver/bronze medals to date, impressive stats that would have looked even better but for the fall at the last flight of Annie Power three years ago with the race at her mercy.

Cheltenham record of course winners in the 'Mares Hurdle':

1/2—Apples Jade (good to soft)

1/3—Indian Stream (good)

1/4—Midnight Tour (good)

 

4.50: Seven-year-olds have won seven of the last thirteen contests and there are least three stand out vintage representatives on this occasion, all of which are due to be ridden by household names which is not always the case in this event. The trio is listed in order of preference as JURY DUTY, NO COMMENT and MS PARFOIS, with IMPULSIVE STAR added into Placepot equation. Should Keeper Hill brush up his fencing on the big day, the Warren Greatrex raider would a threat to them all, though we cannot take that scenario for granted by any means.

Favourite factor: Fate of recent favourites: 23 market leaders—5 winners—4 placed—14 unplaced. First three in the betting: 72 runners--8 winners--14 placed--50 unplaced.

Cheltenham record of course winners in the 'NH Chase':

1/3—Clondaw Cian (soft)

1/9—Sizing Tennessee (soft)

1/2—Ms Parfois (soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Cheltenham card on Tuesday – followed by their ratios at the track this season and then their five year figures + profits/losses during that period:

13—Nicky Henderson (9/28) – 38/337 – loss of 142 points

13—Willie Mullins (0/1) – 27/221 – loss of 68

7—Gordon Elliot (1/8) – 13/110 +21

5—Henry De Bromhead (1/5) – 3/61 – loss of 38

5—Colin Tizzard (7/38) – 19/193 – loss of 87

4—Nigel Twiston-Davies (7/41) – 28/245 – loss of 69

3—Tom George (1/19) – 6/103 – loss of 61

3—Warren Greatrex (1/7) – 4/66 – loss of 36

2—Philip Hobbs (1/16) – 34/244 – loss of 19

2—Richard Hobson (0/2) – 0/15

2—Alan King (2/6) – 19/162 – loss of 27

2—Sophie Leech (0/154) – 1/33 – loss of 12

2—Donald McCain (1/4) – 3/39 – level profit/loss during the last five years

2—Neil Mulholland (2/5) – 10/69 – loss of 9

2—Paul Nicholls (4/28) – 42/361 – loss of 6

2—David Pipe (1/12) – 23/205 - +2

2—Sue Smith (First runners at Cheltenham this season) – 0/9

2—Harry Whittington (0/1) – 0/8

2—Evan Williams (0/6) – 7/88 – loss of 4

2—Nick Williams (1/11) – 6/54 +25

2—Venetia Williams (0/5) – 3/119 – loss of 82

+ 22 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

101 declared runners (115 last year)

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Sedgefield: £58.10 – 6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced

Southwell: £8.00 – 6 favourites – 4 winners & 2 placed

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 22nd February

HUNTINGDON – FEBRUARY 22

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: Meeting abandoned

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Huntingdon: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 4 (Sergio), 13 (Pheonix Rock) & 1 (Now Listen Here)

Leg 2 (2.20): 10 (World Premier) & 1 (Brecon Hill)

Leg 3 (2.55): 4 (Shining Romeo), 2 (Sir Egbert) & 8 (Marmont)

Leg 4 (3.30): 4 (Garde Forestier) & 3 (Doitforthevillage)

Leg 5 (4.05): 3 (Renes Girl), 2 (Desert Queen) & 1 (Antartica De Thaix)

Leg 6 (4.40): 7 (Must Havea Flutter) & 4 (Kincora Fort)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.50: Yet another Placepot dividend was landed yesterday whereby we go into today’s encounter full of confidence.  Six-year-olds have won five of the last six renewals and in offering a trio of vintage representatives we should be well on our way to landing another ‘Pot’, namely SERGIO, PHEONIX ROCK and NOW LISTEN HERE.  For the record, SERGIO would be the call if forced into a single nomination.  The alternative each way option is Taken By Force at a big price.

Favourite factor: Three favourites have prevailed this far at 11/4, 9/4 & 13/8, though only one of the other four market leaders additional claimed a Placepot position.

Record of the course winner in the opening event:

1/5—Phare Isle (good to soft)

 

2.20: Only a photo finish defeat stopped BRECON HILL from landing hat trick of wins last year via just three assignments whereby some overnight support is entirely justified from what we have witnessed thus far.  That said, it’s going to take a plethora of cash to usurp WORLD PREMIER as favourite for this event, whilst the declaration of AARDWOLF adds icing onto the cake.  The weight concession to AARDWOLF should bring Richard Johnson’s mount into the equation, though I still marginally prefer the penalised horses on this occasion.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 8/11 favourite found one too good from a win perspective when securing a Placepot position.

2.55: Six of the seven winners have carried a minimum burden of 11-1, whilst six-year-olds come to the gig on a hat trick. The vintage nomination is offered to SHINING ROMEO following overnight support on the exchanges, whilst SIR EGBERT and MARMONT (despite carrying sixteen ounces short of the ‘superior’ handicap mark) complete my trio against the field.

Favourite factor: Four of the seven market leaders have finished in the frame to date via an exact science, statistics which include three (11/4 & 9/4 twice) winners.

Record of the course winners in the third race:

1/4—Shining Romeo (good)

1/2—Marmont (soft)

 

3.30: This is the second division of the previous race on the card, whereby the same stats apply. Wincanton winner GARDE FORESTIER is the lone six-year-old in the field, with connections probably having most to fear from DOITFORTHEVILLAGE.

Favourite factor: Four of the seven market leaders have finished in the frame to date via an exact science, statistics which include three (11/4 & 9/4 twice) winners.

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Record of the course winners in the fourth contest on the card:

4/11—Occasionally Yours (4 x good)

1/1—hear The Chimes (soft)

 

4.05: Arguably the most difficult race on the Placepot card with marginal votes going to RENES GIRL, DESERT QUEEN and ANTARTICA DE THAIX, though I would not be interested in the race from a win perspective, even if you offered my money to bet with!

Favourite factor: The inaugural 1/2 market leader had to give best to the 5/2 second favourite from a win perspective when securing a Placepot position.

Record of the course winners in the fifth event:

1/1—Antartica De Thaix (soft)

1/2—Mariah’s Legend (good to soft)

 

4.40: The Placepot finale looks (hopefully) cut and dried with MUST HAVEA FLUTTER and KINCORA FORT having been declared to run.  The first named Dan Skelton raider looks to have a decent enough Placepot opportunity despite the seven pound rise for his Market Rasen victory on Sunday. KINCORA FORT represents a real threat however, and there may not be much daylight between the pair at the jamstick.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/1—King Spirit (soft)

 

Favourite factor: All four favourites have secured Placepot positions, stat which include three winners at 11/4, 13/8 & 4/7.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Huntingdon card on Thursday – followed by their ratios at the track this season (in brackets) and their five year figures + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

5 runners—Dan Skelton (2/21 – loss of 11 points) – 18/113 – loss of 52

3—Ben Pauling (2/12 – loss of 7) – 10/46 +81

3—Evan Williams (First runners at Huntingdon this season) – 4/19 – loss of 1

2—David Bridgwater (0/4) – 3/21 +14

2—Jo David (2/5 +6) – 2/18 – loss of 6

2—Nigel Hawke (First runners at Huntingdon this season) – 0/3)

2—Nicky Henderson (7/16 – slight profit) – 30/91 – loss of 11

2—Paul Henderson (0/2) – 2/19 +5

2—Tom Lacey (0/1) – 2/7 +18

2—Graeme McPherson (0/7) – 2/38 – loss of 22

2—Gary Moore (2/19 – loss of 4) – 16/99 +6

2—Neil Mulholland (0/9) – 7/40 – loss of 15

2—Jonjo O’Neill (5/25 +3) – 29/155 +18

2—Denis Quinn (0/8) – 3/24 +8

2—Richard Rowe (First runners at Huntingdon this season) – 0/4

2—Oliver Sherwood (0/7) – 5/46 – loss of 16

2—Noel Williams (0/2) – 2/18 – loss of 5

+ 34 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

73 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Sedgefield: £132.90 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Chelmsford: £37.70 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 1 placed – 4 unplaced

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday 6th February

MARKET RASEN – FEBRUARY 6

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £10.10 (All six favourites won!)

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Market Rasen: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 1 (Oistrakh Le Noir) & 2 (Antunes)

Leg 2 (2.20): 3 (Flemerina) & 2 (Stoical Patient)

Leg 3 (2.55): 3 (Knight In Dubai), 4 (Burrows Edge) & 2 (Herewego Herewego)

Leg 4 (3.25): 6 (Generous Day), 7 (Future Security) & 2 (Board Of Trade)

Leg 5 (4.00): 1 (Just Minded), 4 (Phoeniciana), 3 (Minella Tweet) & 2 (Bigpipenotobacee)

Leg 6 (4.30): 1 (Sir Jack Yeats) & 6 (Warden Hill)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.50: Ben Pauling saddled a 7/1 treble at Southwell yesterday via just four runners with Daryl Jacob aboard two of the short priced winners.  The pair team up again with OISTRAKH LE NOIR and it will take a half decent newcomer to take full advantage of the six pound concession this afternoon following a good Ascot debut in this green and (mostly) pleasant land.  Harry Skelton’s Nathanial colt ANTUNES looks set to follow the favourite home now that Sable Island has been withdrawn.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 4/5 market leader found the 5/4 second favourite too good (beaten by a short head), though the pair finished 17 lengths clear of the rest of the field when securing Placepot positions.  Last year’s 1/4 market leader made up for the initial defeat.

 

2.20: Another trainer at the top of her form on Monday was Sue Smith whose two runners obliged on the Newcastle card, whereby FLEMERINA is the first name on the team sheet in the second race.  STOICAL PATIENT has already registered three steeplechase victories though her sketchy jumping finally caught up with the Shantou mare the last day. Success at local tracks Plumpton and Fontwell for Gary Moore’s raider are were fairly easy to come by but the long trip north is another test entirely, as is the five pound concession to the selection.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Market Rasen card.

Course winner in the field:

1/2—Flemerina (soft)

 

2.55: It’s interesting to witness Barry Geraghty riding against a Nicky Henderson inmate here, with HEREWEGO HEREWEGO wearing the McManus silks for trainer Alan King.  His Warwick victory suggests that Alan’s Kalanisi gelding deserves his place in the field, though in KNIGHT IN DUBAI and Nicky’s beaten favourite BURROWS EDGE, Barry could have his work cut out turning for home.  It's worth noting that James Bowen (7/14) has won 50% of his mounts for Nicky Henderson thus far!

Favourite factor: Two of the three favourites thus far have snared Placepot positions, statistics which include last year’s successful 9/4 market leader.

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Course winner in the third contest on the card:

1/1—Dans Le Vent (good to soft)

 

3.25: Course winner GENEROUS DAY won well when most of us weren’t looking in on Boxing Day and there is every chance that this longer trip will suit Henry Oliver’s Daylami gelding. That said, this in an intriguing contest with FUTURE SECURITY and BOARD OF TRADE also having been declared.  The latter named pair (listed in order of preference) both have to overcome long breaks but if not too ring rusty, this duo could make the marginal selection pull out all the stops.

Favourite factor: In what seems to be a running theme on this card, two of the three market leaders have secured Placepot positions thus far.  Last year’s frame was filled by horses returned at 15/8*, 11/2 & 13/2.

Course winner in the fourth event:

1/2—Generous Day (soft)

 

4.00: The non runner (Romulus Du Donjon) takes this event into ‘win only’ territory and I have little (if no) hesitation is offer all four horses into the Placepot mix, hoping that the horse with the least numbers of units wins the day.  For the record, the quartet is listed in fractional order of preference as JUST MINDED, PHOENICIANA, MINELLA TWEET and BIGPIPENOTOBACEE.

Favourite factor: Two of the three market leaders secured Placepot positions by winning their respective events at 6/4 & 11/8.  The other 11/8 favourite was beaten in a ‘win only’ contest.

Course winners in the fifth race:

1/2—Just Minded (soft)

 

4.30: With over two hundred rides under NH rules, James King is much the most experienced pilot here and that could make all the difference aboard SIR JACK YEATS when the whips are raised at the business end of the contest.  Toby Lerone has been disappointing for some time now, whereby WARDEN HILL is preferred, possessing definite claims of following up his ‘between the flags’ victory last month.

Favourite factor: Both 4/9 and 4/6 market leaders have prevailed thus far.

Course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/1—Warden Hill (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Market Rasen card on Tuesday – followed by their ratios at the track this season (in brackets) and their five-year stats + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

4 runners—Dan Skelton (15/44 +30) – 36/128 +28

2—Mick Channon (0/1) – 4/14 +11

2—Paul Henderson (First runners at the track this season) – 2/7 +2

2—Alan King (5/12 +19) – 10/76 – loss of 18

2—Olly Murphy (4/15 +11) – 4/15 +11

2—Oliver Sherwood (0/2) – 5/26 – loss of 14

2—Sue Smith (1/12 – loss of 7) – 9/76 – loss of 42

2—Lucy Wadham (0/5) – 2/46 – loss of 40

+ 22 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

40 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Sedgefield: £49.90 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Southwell: This is essentially a new meeting

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Sunday 28th January

SEDGEFIELD – JANUARY 28

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £76.70 (7 favourites: 2 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced)

Sunday's Placepot permutation at Sedgefield: 

Leg 1 (1.10): 4 (Black Art), 7 (Nautical Twilight) & 1 (Tontos Spirit)

Leg 2 (1.40): 1 (Bollin Ace), 2 (Burrenbridge Hotel) & 4 (Beau Bay)

Leg 3 (2.10): 2 (Aaron Lad) & 1 (Blottos)

Leg 4 (2.40): 1 (Ascendant) & 5 (Rock Of Leon)

Leg 5 (3.10): 1 (Viens Chercher), 5 (Dica) & 3 (Rear Admiral)

Leg 6 (3.40): 7 (Wazowski), 2 (Banny’s Lad) & 5 (Oregon Gold)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Sunday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page


1.10: Last year’s winner TONTOS SPIRIT returns to defend his crown though whether the Authorised gelding will get the run of the race out in front as was the case last year is a matter for debate.  Danny Cook will still have the cheers of the Cheltenham crowd ringing in his ears I’ll wager following the victory of Definitely Red yesterday but it’s back to earth here (hopefully without a bump) when climbing aboard BLACK ART for his regular boss Sue Smith.  NAUTICAL TWILIGHT (Malcolm Jefferson’s only runner on the card) completes my short list for the opening event.
Favourite factor: The first two market leaders claimed gold and silver medals alongside Placepot positions before last year’s 9/4 joint favourites finished out with the washing.

Record of the course winners in the opening event:

1/2—Tonto’s Spirit (good to soft)

1/2—Black Art (soft)

2/9—Prince Khurrum (2 x good to firm)

1/8—Nautical Twilight (soft)

 

1.40: The 5/1 quote chalked up in the trade press about BOLLIN ACE looked a tad fanciful at first glance, with Tim Easterby’s raider appearing more like a 7/2 chance the more I look at the race.  Hampered before falling on his seasonal debut in a warm race at Wetherby, this small field will give Tim’s Bollin Eric gelding some time to regain any lost confidence whereby I can visualise Brian Hughes getting a decent run from the seven-year-old in this ‘win only’ contest.  BURRENBRIDGE HOTAL is marginally preferred to BEAU BAY as the pick of the dangers though inevitably, I will opt for all three horses in my permutation.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 11/10 favourite duly obliged.

Record of the course winner in the second race:

2/6—Bollin Ace (soft & heavy)

 

2.10: The famous green, white and yellow colours of Trevor Hemmings will shine out of the gloom once again at Sedgefield as the popular trainer goes for victory number 15 at the venue with course winner BLOTTOS, with connections probably having most to fear from AARON LAD on this occasion.  A non runner would certainly put the cat among the pigeons though as long as all five runners stand their ground, this pair should see us safely into the second half of our favourite wager.  If I had to choose the two at the odds on offer in the dead of night, I would opt for AARON LAD given Dr Newland’s fine record at the track in recent years.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Sedgefield card

Record of the course winner in the third contest:

1/2—Blottos (soft)

 

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2.40: As short as 1/3 in a place overnight, there is some opposition to ASCENDANT on the exchanges at the time of writing, suggesting that 8/15 might even be available by the time that the flag falls for this contest.  That said, only ROCK OF LEON is retracting in price to a fashion and either way, it’s difficult to look beyond this pair realistically.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 8/11 (Ascendant) fell at the third flight.

Course winners in the fourth race:

1/2—Ascendant (good to firm)

1/16—Captain Sharpe (soft)

 

3.10:  Yesterday’s ‘hero’ Brian Ellison saddles four runners on the card and I fancy that VIENS CHERCHER represents the best value of the quartet in this interesting event.  DICA still has plenty going for him even at the age of twelve following a five pound hike in the weights.  REAR ADMIRAL is added into the Placepot equation.
Favourite factor: Two of the five favourites have finished in the frame by winning their respective events via four contests to date.

Course winners in the fifth event:

1/1—Viens Chercher (good to firm)

2/4—Dica (good & soft)

6/15—Discoverie (4 x soft & 2 x good to soft)

 

3.40: I took advantage of the 33/1 on offer about OREGON GOLD at the time of night when Saturday revellers might have taken to their beds.  Henry Brooke’s mount should be around half of that price from my viewpoint, though I have been wrong once or twice (!) before.  I accept that more logical winners include WAZOWSKI and (arguably) BANNY’S LAD but at 33’s, I’ll be happy to watch my speculative call finish third behind the other pair.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 10/11 market leader scraped into a Placepot position behind horses retuned at 8/1 & 7/1.

Course winners in the Placepot finale:

2/3—Banny’s Lad (good & heavy)

1/3—Weazowski (soft)

4/9—Dark And Dangerous (3 x soft & good to soft)

2/9—Ever So Much (2 x good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Sedgefield card on Sunday – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) and five year ratios at the track + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

4 runners—Micky Hammond (3/34 – loss of 22) – 28/202 – loss of 45

4—Donald McCain (9/41 +7) – 56/267 – loss of 21

4—Sue Smith (4/24 – loss of 7) – 24/190 – loss of 60

3—Brian Ellison (6/27 – loss of 7) – 34/144 – loss of 14

3—Chris Grant (2/25 +3) – 14/139 – loss of 26

2—Mick Easterby (1/2 +1) – 4/30 – loss of 11

2—Tim Easterby (0/3) – 6/69 – loss of 37

2—Ben Haslam (2/8 – slight loss) – 7/47 – loss of 10

2—Kenny Johnson (0/14) – 1/38 – loss of 23

2—Dr Richard Newland (1/3 – slight loss) – 4/13 +5

2—Ken Slack (0/10) – 19/65 +28

2—Victor Thompson (0/12) – 5/83 – loss of 55)

+ 21 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

53 declared runners

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday 12th January

LINGFIELD – JANUARY 12

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £126.80 (8 favourites - 2 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Lingfield: 

Leg 1 (12.20): 2 (Star Story) & 1 (Swiss Vinnare)

Leg 2 (12.50): 1 (Father Alibe), 3 (Imperial Red) & 2 (Ocean Side)

Leg 3 (1.20): 1 (Dark Alliance) & 7 (Ubla)

Leg 4 (1.50): 7 (No Approval), 6 (Black Dave) & 1 (Kingsley Klarion)

Leg 5 (2.20): 4 (Mystique Moon) & 3 (Suzi’s Connoisseur)

Leg 6 (2.50): 1 (Juan Horsepower). 2 (Menelik) & 6 (Monumental Man)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.20:  Seven pound claimer Nicola Currie is the latest lady rider to come off the production line to very good effect, especially given her 41/1 treble yesterday which will give added confidence to the jockey aboard SWISS VINNARE.  Trainer Phil McEntee has saddled four of his last ten runners to winning effect too, though the same horse (Spare Parts) won three of those races which dilutes the impressive ratio to a fashion.  STAR STORY is the horse to beat if the headlines are potentially heading in the direction of Nicola and Phil again early doors.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the card at Lingfield with which to open proceedings.

Record of the course winners in the field:

1/2—Swiss Vinnare

1/3—Retrieve

3/16—Turnberry

 

12.50:  Just two weeks ago, this would have been a Nursery event which accounts for the tight looking handicap which needs to be solved.  FATHER ALIBE (the first of no less than six runners on the card for trainer John Butler) gets the marginal nod over IMPERIAL RED and OCEAN SIDE.  There has been money for the first named Excelebration gelding, whilst the reserve nomination is awarded to Global Angel though in truth, I rarely call the Ed Dunlop trained horses the right way.

Favourite factor: Two of the four favourites (via just two renewals) have secured Placepot positions, stats which include one (9/4) winner.

 

1.20: Two of the last three horses saddled by Daniel Mark Loughnane have won, the first of them being DARK ALLIANCE just four days ago at Wolverhampton. The seven-year-old escapes a penalty for that victory and the trainer seems to have found an ideal opportunity for his Dark Angel gelding to win in this grade/company.  MADRINHO (another of the John Butler raiders on the card) is attracting each way support as I write, though that small gamble is not being replicated on the exchanges in the dead of night.  11/1 is available with a few firms about UBLA and given the positive course stats, win and place investors might be rewarded to minimum stakes if nothing else appeals.

Favourite factor: All three favourites had secured Placepot positions (including two 6/4 & even money winners), before last year’s 6/4 market leader finished tenth of the eleven runners.

Record of the course winners in the third race:

1/8—Passing Star

2/4—Ubla

3/25--Bookmaker

 

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1.50: The 25/1 trade press quote about KINGSLEY KLARION is looking a tad big this morning as more money for a John Butler representative has been recorded whilst other were working on their ‘beauty sleep’.  More logical winners in the field include BLACK DAVE (impressive stats to offer at Lingfield) and NO APPROVAL who has plenty of realistic money in the positive queue on the exchanges to report. As for beauty sleep, some of us don’t need it because in certain aspects of life, we were declared as also rans many seasons ago!

Favourite factor: This is the second division of the third race on the card whereby the same stats apply.  All three favourites had secured Placepot positions (including two 6/4 & even money winners), before last year’s 6/4 market leader finished tenth of the eleven runners.

Record of the course winners in the fourth contest on the card:

1/5—Kingsley Klarion

1/4—Bridge Of Sighs

2/9—Complicit

1/9—Bobbie Benton

1/1—Luna Magic

5/12—Black Dave

9/46—Seek The Fair Land

 

2.20:  Charlie Appleby has his team in fine form (recent ratio of 7/16) as is seemingly always the case and it is worth noting that Charlie’s only runner until Monday (at the earliest) is MYSTIQUE MOON.  Stuart Williams is the brave trainer who offers a double attack on the favourite, with SUZI’S CONNOISSEUR marginally preferred to Swift Approval, though the ‘jury was out’ for a long time before the far from unanimous decision was declared.

Favourite factor: This is another new race on the card at Lingfield.

Record of the course winners in the field:

2/2—Early Morning

1/4—Mr Scaramanga

1/5—Unforgiving Minute

4/17--Shyron

 

2.50: Considering the number of horses that Richard Hannon has saddled here at Lingfield, it’s worth noting that the trainer has recorded a level stake profit at the track whereby with little else to work with, I’m offering JUAN HORSEPOWER up as the first name on the team sheet.  The 7/1 quotes by Bet365 and BetVictor might not last until the offices open later this morning though either way, I’m taking the course winner to get the better of MENELIK and MONUMENTAL MAN at the business end of proceedings.  This trio offer better value for money from a Placepot perspective than other contenders from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: Both (4/5 & 7/4) market leaders had prevailed before last year’s 11/8 market leader finished out with the washing.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/6—Juan Horsepower

4/17—Menelik

2/8—Pour La Victoire

2/10—Dutiful Son

5/10—Monumental Man

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Lingfield card on Friday – followed by this career ratios at the track + profits/losses accrued:

6 runners—John Butler (15/104 – loss of 11 points)

3—Simon Dow (151/1666 – loss of 524)

3—David Evans (166/1611 – loss of 634)

3—Richard Hannon (60/336 +22)

2—Michael Attwater (58/720 – loss of 116)

2—John Bridger (82/1644 – loss of 650)

2—Phil McEntee (43/576 – loss of 253)

2—Stuart Williams (93/668 – loss of 134)

+ 46 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

69 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Huntingdon: £69.50 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

Newcastle: This is a new meeting

The meeting at Sedgefield was abandoned

 

 

Placepot pointers – Tuesday 26th December

KEMPTON - DECEMBER 26

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £742.50 (7 favourites - 2 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced)

 

Boxing Day Placepot permutation at Kempton: 

Leg 1 (12.45): 2 (Diese Des Bieffes) & 1 (If The Cap Fits)

Leg 2 (1.20): 2 (Reigning Supreme), 5 (Wenterreadyfreddie) & 8 (Mister Whitaker)

Leg 3 (1.55): 7 (Mia’s Storm), 1 (Ballyoptic) & 4 (Fountains Windfall)

Leg 4 (2.30): 1 (Buveur D’Air) & 5 (The New One)

Leg 5 (3.05): 1 (Bristol De Mai), 4 (Might Bite) & 3 (Fox Norton)

Leg 6 (3.40): 6 (Take To Heart), 2 (Dashing Oscar), 3 (Connetable) & 5 (Jaleo)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

Please note the additional service below relating to stats which are available for every represented trainer at Kempton on Boxing Day.

 

12.45: On a general front, it's worth noting that 48% of the Kempton entries on Boxing Day hail from just five stables, whilst 65% are covered by just eight handlers.  Four and five-year-olds have secured 17 of the last 19 renewals of this opening contest.  Nicky Henderson has secured five renewals during the study period having held two entries at the weekend.  That said, DIESE DES BIEFFES was always the likely declaration and his is the first name on the team sheet, marginally ahead of Harry Fry’s Milan gelding IF THE CAP FITS who boasts a 4/5 record this far.  Harry Whittington boasts a fine record here at Kempton and readers should not dispel the chance of Simply The Betts too quickly.
Favourite factor: Seven favourites have obliged via the last 18 renewals, and aside from a 20/1 winner in 1999, the biggest priced gold medallist during the period was returned at 12/1 (four years ago).  14 of the last 19 market leaders have finished in the frame though that does not include last year’s (1/2) favourite which finished fourth.

Record of the course winner in the field: 

1/1--Irish Prophecy (good to soft)

1.20: Six and seven-year-olds have won ten of the last thirteen renewals between them whilst 11 of the last 15 winners have carried weights of eleven stones or more.  Nicky Henderson has won five of the last ten renewals with the trainer holding ‘four cards’ at the penultimate entry stage.  Nicky has offered the green light to REIGNING SUPREME and WENYERREADYFREDDIE and I consider it extremely doubtful that both horses will finish out of the money, though this is race for watching rather than to become involved from a win perspective from my viewpoint.  If Nicky is to be denied another success, the likeliest party-pooper appears to be MISTER WHITAKER, albeit Mick Channon’s only projected runner until next Saturday hails from the ‘inferior’ sector of the weights.
Favourite factor: Seven favourites have snared gold via 16 renewals to date, though just five of the other fourteen market leaders additionally claimed toteplacepot positions.

1.55: This is the race which set up last year’s good Placepot dividend, with the first four horses in the betting finishing out of the frame at 3/1, 10/3 & 11/2 (twice). Six-year-olds have won eight of the last thirteen renewals of this event and with BLACK CORTON representing the vintage this time around (alongside SOME INVITATION), the trend could well be extended.  Black Corton continues to defy his ‘doubters’, though there is no denying that this is his biggest test to date.  Some Invitation lacks a little experience over fences in comparison to others, whereby I’m opting (rightly or wrongly) for MIA’S STORM, BALLYOPTIC and FOUNTAINS WINDFALL just ahead of the six-year-olds this time around in a fascinating event.  When you are working this far in advance of a race like this, it is as well to have contenders who will act on the relevant ground when the flag falls, which I have taken into account according.  Foolishly perhaps, I think I have all eventualities covered!
Favourite factor: Seven of the last 20 market leaders have prevailed, whilst 12 favourites secured toteplacepot positions.  15 of the last 20 winners were returned at odds of 6/1 or less though that said, two of the last four gold medallists scored at 33/1 & 12/1.

Record of the course winner in the third race:

1/2--Black Corton (good)

2.30: Six-year-olds have won six of the last eleven renewals of this Christmas Hurdle and with BUVEUR D’AIR having been declared, the ratio looks likely to be improved upon on Tuesday.  This track is too quick for THE NEW ONE as I have documented before and I hope the favourite puts Nigel’s brave warrior into his place in proper fashion here as I fully expect that The New One could go very close in the ‘Stayers’ sector at the Cheltenham Festival, possibly resulting in a Championship victory at Prestbury Park in March which he so richly deserves.  I’m afraid that will not happen if Nigel enters him in the Champion Hurdle again for all that he would run a good race, pure and simple. The same comment applies here because the old warrior simply refuses to down tools, even when the odds are stacked against him.  Back to the champion hurdler now, because his victory in the ‘Fighting Fifth’ at Newcastle showed that last year’s results where no flash in the pan and whatever ‘Ireland’ sends over in March, I expect Buveur D’Air to repel all challengers at this stage of the season.
Favourite factor: Seven of the last fourteen favourites have won, though the previous four market leaders were all beaten during the study period.  11 of the last 18 market leaders secured toteplacepot positions.

Record of the course winners in the Christmas Hurdle:

1/3--Old Guard (good)

3/6--The New One (2 x good to soft & good)

3.05: Seven-year-olds have won seven of the last 17 renewals of the King George, even taking into account that the vintage was not represented two years ago.  FOX NORTON was among just three relevant entries last week and although all three runners have stood their ground, only Colin Tizzard’s raider can be given a chance of lowering the colours of more fancied runners in the contest.   I have to admit that I thought we had seen the best of BRISTOL DE MAIN in his novice days before his resurgence this term when he has simply blown his rivals away.  It’s difficult to tell just how soft the ground will be writing this column over 50 hours in advance of the race but be assured, connections be welcoming every drop of rain between now and flag fall, especially on one of the quickest drying courses in the land.  Providing that it is at least good to soft on all parts of the track, Nigel’s raider will give MIGHT BITE a real race and 4/1 at the time of writing looks too big from my viewpoint, despite the unknown ground factor.  MIGHT BITE is a talented individual and no mistake and last year’s leading novice made short work of the opposition when landing a Listed event at Sandown on his reappearance.  It would going over the top to suggest that THISTLECRACK was the forgotten horse in the contest but he has questions to answer now and from that perspective, his odds fail to attract my attention.
Favourite factor: Although 11 favourites have won the King George during the last 19 years, seven of the other 11 market leaders failed to finish in the frame. Only Jair Du Cochet (pulled up in 2003 behind the much underrated Edredon Bleu), Kauto Star (2010) and Long Run (2011) had failed to snare gold via the ‘jollies perspective’ in the previous 11 years, before joint beaten favourites Cue Card & Dynaste both let the side down in 2013.

Course winners in the 'King George':

1/2--Double Shuffle (good)

1/2--Might Bite (good)

3/4--Tea For Two (2 x good to soft & soft)

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1/1--Thistlecrack (good)

1/1--Whisper (good)

3.40: Nine of the last eleven winners of the finale have carried a minimum burden of 11-2, whilst Nicky Henderson (TAKE TO HEART – set to carry 11-4) has secured three of the last eleven contests. This appears to be the one race on the card that could give bookmakers some breathing space, given that their ledgers (I'm showing my age) will be dominated by so few horses in the previous events on the card.  That said, four-year-olds have won the last four contests though in the circumstances, can you believe that just one of the 26 penultimate stage entries was a four-year-old.  It’s as though trainers want bookmakers to earn a great living, especially as the relevant vintage represented has not been declared for the gig!  The weight trends suggest that it would be churlish to ignore the Placepot claims of DASHING OSCAR, and CONNETABLE alongside Take To Heart.  If the weight trend goes ‘belly up’ this time around, I’m adding JALEO into the mix who would have run from the ‘superior’ sector of the handicap but for Alex Ferguson’s useful claim.  I sincerely hope that you back lots of winners over the Christmas period and that you are enjoying the festivities thus far.
Favourite factor: Four of the last 13 favourites have won, whilst eight of the eighteen market leaders have finished in the frame during the study period.

Record of course winners in the finale:

2/2--Our Kaempfer (2 x good to soft)

1/2--Doesyourdogbite (good)

1/3--Mr Fickle (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

EVERY TRAINER LISTED with their relevant number of runners on the Kempton card on Boxing Day – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) and career ratios at the track + level stake profits/losses accrued on both counts:

7 runners—Nicky Henderson (5/18 – loss of 5 points) – 226/888 - +72

5—Gary Moore (0/12) – 28/393 – loss of 167

5—Colin Tizzard (1/3 +8) – 20/125 +48

4—Paul Nicholls (6/12 – loss of 1 point) – 11/6/515 – loss of 55

4—Dan Skelton (0/12) – 8/96 – loss of 69

3—Harry Fry (2/6 – Slight profit) – 12/61 – loss of 12

3—Alan King (1/10 – loss of 7) – 75/475 – loss of 82

3—Nigel Twiston-Davies (1/2 +1) – 46/326 – loss of 51

2—Emma Lavelle (0/2) – 27/180 – loss of 29

2—Ben Pauling (1/3 +2) – 5/31 – loss of 12

1—Peter Bowen (1/2 +5) – 8/57 – loss of 16

1—Ben Case (0/1) – 1/33 – loss of 28

1—Mick Channon (First runner this season) – 7/36 +12

1—Tom George (1/4 – Slight profit) – 24/147 +18

1—Nick Gifford (0/1) – 5/98 – loss of 68

1—Chris Gordon (0/6) – 9/73 +25)

1—Anthony Honeyball (First runner this season) – 0/8

1—Charlie Longsdon (0/5) – 11/101 – loss of 16

1—Phil Middleton (1/1 +10) – 1/10 +1

1—Seamus Mullins (0/1) – 5/116 – loss of 61

1—Jonjo O’Neill (1/8 – loss of 4 points) – 32/268 – loss of 125

1—Harry Whittington (1/4 +8) – 4/16 +11

1—Ian Williams (1/3 – Slight loss) – 11/89 +3

1—Nick Williams (0/1) 0 7/44 – loss of 3

52 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Fontwell: £83.80 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 placed

Huntingdon: £73.80 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

Market Rasen: £192.20 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Sedgefield: £66.70 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Wincanton: £307.10 – 5 favourites (1 void) – 3 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced

Wolverhampton: £810.40 – 6 favourites – 1 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

Wetherby: £3,021.60 – 6 favourites – No winners – 3 placed – 3 unplaced

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday 8th December

SANDOWN - DECEMBER 8

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £1,787.90 (7 favourites - 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Sandown: 

Leg 1 (12.50): 7 (Shanroe Santos), 2 (Pickamix) & 12 (Lunar Flow)

Leg 2 (1.25): 1 (Jukebox Jive), 5 (Night Of Glory)

Leg 3 (1.55): 3 (Touch Kick) & 5 (Darebin)

Leg 4 (2.30): 2 (On The Blind Side) & 8 (White Moon)

Leg 5 (3.05): 5 (Bally Gilbert), 3 (Workbench) & 7 (Gregarious)

Leg 6 (3.35): 12 (Cap Du Nord), 5 (Rainy Day Dylan) & 9 (Le Capriceux)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.50: Nine of the thirteen horses to have secured toteplacepot positions thus far have carried a minimum weight of 11-4, statistics which include three (10/1, 7/1 & 3/1) of the five gold medallists.  Taking all the jockey claims into account, seven of the thirteen declarations ‘qualify’ via the weight trend.  SHANROE SANTOS catches the eye for at least two reasons having won under these projected (good to soft) conditions here at Sandown already, representing Lucy Wadham whose Sandown record (see stats at the foot of the column) is worth noting in no uncertain terms.  Six-year-olds come to the gig on a hat trick which also brings PICKAMIX into the equation.  If I had to pick out one horse which sits below the ‘superior’ weight barrier on this occasion, the vote would have to go to LUNAR FLOW whose trainer Jamie Snowden has bagged three winners via his last eight runners.  Out of interest, there was support for Jamie’s six-year-old gelding overnight which adds interest to proceedings.
Favourite factor: Four of the five favourites thus far have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include two (3/1 & 7/4) winners.

Record of the course winners in the opening event:

1/5—Pete The Feat (soft)

1/1—Shanroe Santos (good to soft)

2/2—Jennys Surprise (2 x soft)

 

1.25: There have been a few short priced casualties in this event down the years (including an 8/15 chance two years ago) whereby interpretation of potential investors steaming into fancied runners too heavily should be issued with a health warning, though including such runners in Placepot permutations is okay with yours truly, as was (successfully) the case twelve months ago. Anthony Honeyball was in the middle of a ‘purple patch’ when nearly everything he touched turned to gold when JUKEBOX JUVE won on debut at Fontwell on this type of ground.  The yard subsequently (inevitably) went through a quieter patch though it’s worth noting that Anthony scored with both of his entries yesterday.  That said, part time NH trainer Andrew Balding has won with four of the thirteen runners he has saddled in the last five years at this venue, whereby the chance of his newcomer NIGHT OF GLORY is thoroughly respected.  Any further interest for TOMMY HALLINON on the exchanges (there has been some investment already) would add interest and no mistake.
Favourite factor: Seven favourites have won via eighteen renewals, whilst 12 of the 19 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

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1.55: 12 of the 15 winners to date have carried weights of 11-3 or more, whilst five-year-olds have secured five of the last ten contests via less than 20% of the total number of runners in those races. No five-year-olds were declared last year and with DAREBIN being the only representative on show today, trainers need to wake up and smell the coffee as far as this contest in concerned.  Like Toomy Hallinan in the previous race, I can report early support/activity for a Paul Nicholls runner on the card, given that the 6/1 trade press quote about TOUCH KICK was never really in evidence and in the odd place that early birds might have had some pickings, the price did not last for long.
Favourite factor: Four favourites have snared gold thus far, whilst 11 of the 19 jollies have reached the frame.

Record of the course winners in the third event:

1/4—Darebin (soft)

 

2.30: Some really good horses have won this race down the years including Inglis Drever, What’s Up Boys and the ill-fated Rouble to name but three fine thoroughbreds, notwithstanding Fingal Bay six years ago.  Last year’s winner went on to lift the Challow Hurdle next time out at Newbury before securing place positions in Grade 1 events at the Cheltenham & Aintree festivals earlier this year. Five-year-olds have won nine of the last seventeen renewals, with ON THE BLIND SIDE (Nicky Henderson’s only raider on the card) and WHITE MOON (one of just two runners for Colin Tizzard at Sandown today) hailing from the vintage on this occasion with definite claims.  Alan King has saddled four of the last eight winners though the popular trainer is not represented today.  I have left the stat in place, knowing that some readers keep these records for future use.
Favourite factor: All 18 winners have been returned at odds of 11/2 or less, stats which includes six winning favourites.  Eight of the last thirteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

 

3.05: If the ground becomes soft by the time that this event is reached, don’t be too surprised if there is some money forthcoming for dual course winner GREGARIOUS at around the 20/1 mark, especially given the Lucy Wadham Sandown stats which I referred to earlier.  Apologies for that last phrase which sounded like a ‘House of Commons’ remark my learned friends!  Upwards and onward by admitting that more logical winners at the time of writing include BALLY GILBERT and WORKBENCH though if you prefer the latter named Dan Skelton raider, you might care to take a look at his negative Sandown stats below before wading in too heavily.  BALLY GILBERT has already been the subject of plenty of overnight support and hailing from Ben Pauling’s yard, it’s not difficult to see why.
Favourite factor: One of the three favourites (via two renewals) has finished in the frame thus far without tinning the relevant contest.

Record of the course winners in the fifth race:

2/3—Gregarious (2 x soft)

3.35: Six-year-olds have won three of the last five renewals and with RAINY DAY DYLAN and LE CARICIEAX among their number this time around, the trend could be enhanced today.  You have to admire the patience of a trainer like Christian Williams.  Christian has only saddled five winners to date, whereby it would have come as no surprise for the trainer to have tried to capitalize on his best success to date when scoring with Limited Reserve at Haydock a fortnight ago.  The fact that he has waited until today to send out his next runner is admirable from my viewpoint and I wish him and the team all the luck in the world for the future, starting with CAP DU NORD in this contest.
Favourite factor: 17 of the 18 winners have been returned at odds of 11/1 or less, whilst four clear and one joint favourite have obliged for supporters of the market leaders.  11 of the 21 favourites have finished in the frame.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Sandown card on Friday – followed by their seasonal stats (in brackets)  and five year ratios at Sandown + level stake profits/losses accrued on both counts:

6 runners—Gary Moore (0/4) – 21/95 +83

4—Paul Nicholls (0/6) – 24/162 – loss of 18 points

3—Dan Skelton (0/4) – 1/37 – loss of 30 points

2—Philip Hobbs (0/2) – 14/72 +3

2—Charlie Longsdon (0/3) – 4/48 – loss of 11 points)

2—Jonjo O’Neill (0/3) – 2/48 – loss of 40 points

2—Ben Pauling (0/1) – 0/15

2—Colin Tizzard (0/1) – 2/38 – loss of 32 points

2—Lucy Wadham (First runners this season) – 6/25 +12

2—Christian Williams (0/1) – No previous runners

2—Nick Williams (First runners this season) – 3/24 – loss of 5 points

+ 27 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

56 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Exeter: Meeting abandoned

Sedgefield: £54.40 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 4 placed – 2 unplaced

Wolverhampton: £103.29 – 7 favourites – 1 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced

 

Stat of the Day, 8th December 2017

Thursday's Result :

3.00 Market Rasen : Triopas @ 11/4 BOG WON at 11/8 Made all, ridden 2 out, found extra when pressed flat, winning by three lengths.

Next up is Friday's...

12.40 Sedgefield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Charmant @ 5/1 BOG

A Class 5, 3yo+ Novices Handicap Hurdle over 2m1f on Soft ground worth £2,599 to the winner...

And a 5 yr old gelding trained by James Ewart, who despite not sending many horses here to Sedgefield, does rather well at the venue. Numerically, we 're talking just 74 runners in 9 years, but 13 winners (17.6% SR) and 9.5pts (+12.8% ROI) profit make James profitable to follow blindly. If you wanted to be more selective, you could try on of the following angles derived from those 74 runners...

  • handicaps = 12/62 (19.4%) for 11.5pts (+18.5%)
  • at 2/1 to 12/1 : 11/57 (19.3%) for 21.4pts 9+37.5%)
  • hurdlers = 6/37 (16.2%) for 2.6pts (+7%)
  • at Class 5 = 7/27 (25.9%) for 19.6pts (+72.7%)
  • on Soft ground : 5/23 (21.7%) for 18.6pts (+81%)

AND...with Class 5 handicap hurdlers priced at 2/1 to 9/1 : 5/14 (35.7% SR) for 22.6pts (+161.1% ROI)

This is also James' only runner of the day anywhere and since 2009, his single entrants are 59/324 (18.2% SR) for 112pts (+34.6% ROI), from which...

  • handicap hurdlers are 19/93 (20.4%) for 75.5pts (+81.2%)
  • and Class 5 handicap hurdlers are 9/22 (40.9%) for 49.8pts (+226.4%)

And finally, a quick word about Charmant's breeding, as he's a son of Balko, whose offspring are 14/65 (21.5% SR) for 16.2pts (+24.9% ROI) over the last two years and these figures include...

  • over hurdles : 5/25 (20%) for 12.24pts (+49%)
  • and at trips of 16.5/17 furlongs : 4/11 (36.4%) for 12.2pts (+110.9%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Charmant @ 5/1 BOG which was widely available at 5.40pm on Thursday, but those able to take SkyBet's 11/2 BOG should do so! To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 12.40 Sedgefield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday 28th November

 

LINGFIELD - NOVEMBER 28

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £21.60 (7 favourites - 2 winners - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Lingfield: 

Leg 1 (1.00): 5 (Its Got Legs) & 1 (Cavernous)

Leg 2 (1.30): 1 (Al Shahir) & 4 (Fairmount)

Leg 3 (2.00): 7 (Sir Hubert), 2 (Becauseshesaidso) & 3 (Point N Shoot)

Leg 4 (2.30): 1 (Alice Pink), 6 (Naranja) & 4 (Miss Adventure)

Leg 5 (3.00): 8 (Allchilledout), 5 (Two Smokin Barrells) & 4 (Chef D’Oeuvre)

Leg 6 (3.30): 8 (Molly Carew), 5 (Corlay) & 2 (Spiritofthegames)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.00: A poor contest to start the meeting on a decidedly ordinary day which would struggle to live up to its name as the ‘Sport of Kings’!  Winners are winners in any class however and the opening event looks to be a potential match between ITS GOT LEGS and CAVERNOUS.  The pair is listed in order of preference simply because of the experience gained by the first named entry. That said, if CAVERNOUS (brother to the very useful Willoughby Court) hacks up by a distance, it would not come as a complete surprise, especially with Ben Pauling having saddled seven of his last nineteen runners to winning effect, stats which have produced 34 points of level stake profit.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 8/15 favourite finished out of the money, the ‘short field’ frame being filled by horses which were returned at 25/1 & 6/1.  The majority of punters gained their revenge twelve months ago however when the 9/4 market leader scored in facile fashion. New readers might like to learn that the term ‘short field’ relates to 5/6/7 runners races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way/Placepot perspectives.

 

1.30: Although this is another extremely average event, it’s worth noting that the three winners to date have hailed from top yards, the most recent of which was Dan Skelton’s stable which is represented today by AL SHAHIR.  Harry’s mount was the 6/4 favourite in a Class 3 event last time out where we can expect far shorter odds for this drop down in grade.  A winner under heavy conditions at Newcastle when winning his only race (of five in total) in a bumper event, AL SHAHIR beat Wig Wam Wiggle by eight lengths on that occasion, with the runner up having scored the other day at Hexham to frank the form.  Martin Keighley’s form at Lingfield is better than most (see current and five year ratios below) whereby FAIRMOUNT might chase the selection home, albeit at a respectable distance.

Favourite factor: The three favourites have snared a gold medal and two of the silver variety thus far alongside Placepot positions.

 

2.00: Richard Rowe’s only runner on the card is SIR HUBERT which makes for interesting reading as Richard has saddled two of the three winners of this event to date, the trainer not having been representative in the other renewal. Offered at 9/1 right across the board in the dead of night as I write this column, it will interesting to see if any money arrives for the seven-year-old Multiplex gelding who goes chasing for the first time this afternoon. BECAUSESHESAIDSO is regarded as the main threat (Charlie Deutsch takes off a useful three pounds), whilst POINT N SHOOT is preferred of the two course winners in the line up.
Favourite factor: Only one favourite (silver medallist) has finished in the money thus far via three renewals.

Record of the course winners in the third race:

1/2—Point N Shoot (heavy)

1/2—Touch Screen (soft)

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2.30: Five-year-olds have won three of the four renewals to date which suggests that NARANJA should go close, though Gavin Sheehan will be hoping for a better ride aboard Jamie Snowden’s raider than was the case on the beaten 11/8 favourite twelve months ago.  ALICE PINK is the ‘dark horse’ in the race, whilst Phil Middleton can do little wrong in the training ranks at present whereby the chance of MISS ADVENTURE demands respect at a big price.  Money has arrived for Queen Of The Wind overnight which makes for interesting reading given that Colin Tizzard snared a nice 10/1 winner (Mister Malarky) for yours truly at Kempton yesterday.  I’m unsure whether the current 16/1 quote (almost right across the board) will still be in place by the time the offices start receiving calls later this morning.
Favourite factor: Three of the four favourites have secured Placepot positions, stats which include two (5/6 and even money) winners.

 

3.00: ALLCHILLEDOUT was a beaten favourite on the card last year and it looks as though punters with long memories are looking for a return at much bigger odds today as Colin Tizzard’s eight-year-old Alflora gelding has been backed overnight.  TWO SMOKIN BARRELLS has her ground, especially with the chase course reportedly being softer than the hurdle track today.  All three of the Warren Greatrex runners were beaten on the corresponding card last year but with Warren firing in more than his fair share of winners recently, his lone entry (course winner) CHEF D’OEUVRE has to be included in my short list.
Favourite factor: Two of the three market leaders (via just two renewals) have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include one successful 9/4 (joint) favourite.

Record of the course winners in the fifth contest on the card:

2/3—Solstice Star (soft & heavy)

1/1—Chef D’Oeuvre (heavy)

 

3.30:  I think we know that Song Light is going to pop up one of these days but he entered my ‘last chance saloon’ last time out and I have little option but to look elsewhere.  Now could be the time to cash in in accordingly guys!  Dual soft/heavy ground winner MOLLY CAREW demands respect, whilst CORLAY could be anything representing the famous McManus colours.  ARDMAYLE is a very big price considering the conditions, though I guess SPIRITOFTHEGAMES is a more logical option.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 5/4 favourite duly obliged, before last year’s 2/1 market leader found one two good when snaring a Placepot position.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/1—Ardmayle (heavy)

1/1—Molly Carew (heavy)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Lingfield card on Tuesday – followed by this seasons ratios (in brackets) and then five years stats at the course + level stake profits/losses accrued relating to both periods:

4 runners—Laura Mongan (No runners this season) – 0/9 last five years

4—Gary Moore (0/4) – 9/73 – loss of 17 points

4—Neil Mulholland (0/3) – 3/26 +23

3—Martin Keighley (1/1 +14) – 4/9 +14

3—Seamus Mullins (0/1) – 4/33 – loss of 16 points

2—Nick Gifford – (0/1) – 0/7

2—Mark Gillard (1/1 +12) – 1/13 – level profit/loss

2—Chris Gordon (0/1) – 7/32 – loss of four points

2—Paul Henderson (No runners) – 2/11 – loss of 2 points

2—Ben Pauling (No runners) – 1/3 – slight loss

2—Dan Skelton (0/2) – 5/12 +13

2—Roger Teal (No runners in either period)

2—Colin Tizzard (No runners) – 2/10 – loss of 3 points)

+ 25 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

59 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Sedgefield: £63.90 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced

Southwell A/W: Meeting abandoned

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 2nd November

LINGFIELD – NOVEMBER 2

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £112.30 (6 favourites - 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Lingfield: 

Leg 1 (12.15): 7 (Scandaleuse) & 4 (Ghanimah)

Leg 2 (12.45): 1 (Il Primo Sole) & 12 (Statehood)

Leg 3 (1.20): 4 (Promising Run) & 1 (Muffri’Ha)

Leg 4 (1.50): 10 (Bobbie Wheeler), 14 (Easy Tiger) & 4 (Sacred Act)

Leg 5 (2.25): 9 (Cribbs Causeway), 14 (Val De Marne) & 12 (Melodic Motion)

Leg 6 (2.55): 6 (Miss Pacific), 7 (Unit Of Assessment) & 11 (Luxford)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.15: It appears significant that the Sir Michael Stoute team can make its journey back to Newmarket following the first race on the card, with SCANDALEUSE being the only stable representative at Lingfield on Thursday.  Indeed, Michael only has two more runners pencilled in before next Monday whereby the entry here takes on a more positive declaration from my viewpoint.  GHANIMAH looks the obvious threat, with a Placepot position surely there for the taking if the William Haggas trained Invincible Spirit filly can offer the normal amount of improvement (whatever that is) following a decent debut effort at Kempton three weeks ago.

Favourite factor: We are back in the realms of ‘fantasy land’ whereby the powers that be have labelled the first two races on the card as ‘new events’ even though they carry the exact credentials required to contest the races in the past!  Upwards and onward be informing the first two (1/2 & 5/4) favourites found one too good for them when securing Placepot positions thus far, should you decide to stick with my historic facts and figures.  If that should be the case, I’ll round of by parting with the news that last year’s even money market leader failed to reach the frame.

 

12.45: Charlie Appleby’s Kodiac newcomer STATEHOOD also holds an entry next Tuesday but with only IL PRIMO SOLE standing out from the crowd relating to the opposition here, it is little wonder that the Godolphin raider has been offered this event in which to attend school for the first time.  Whether Charlie’s March foal can get on terms with John Gosden’s impressive debut winner is another matter entirely though in receipt of seven pounds from the favourite, there may not be a great deal of daylight between the pair as they cross the line.

Favourite factor: Only three (4/5, 7/4 & 15/8) favourites have won during the last eleven, whilst three 25/1 winners have been record during the last eight contests.

 

1.20: Four-year-olds come to the gig on a five timer and with PROMISING RUN representing Saeed Bin Suroor (last three runners have won), the trend could be extended.  That said, MUFFRI‘HA won this event in facile fashion last year and coming to the party almost on identical terms relating to the official mark and weight, it seems inconceivable that James Doyle’s mount could finish out of the frame.  The 3/3 course record of SIMPLY ME demands attention, even as one of the complete outsiders in the field.

Favourite factor:  Last year’s successful 5/4 market leader (Muffri’Ha) ended a drought which had lasted five years.  That said, the last ten winners have scored at a top price of 7/1, albeit there were a trio of winners returned at price.

Record of course winners in the third race:

1/2—Muffri’Ha

3/3—Simply Me

2/4—Somethingthrilling

 

1.50: This is a really interesting contest with the seven course winners in the field boasting an aggregate strike rate of 27% on the Polytack surface at Lingfield.  Four-year-olds have secured six contests during the last decade with BOBBIE WHEELER hopefully proving to be the best of the trio of vintage representatives on this occasion.  EASY TIGER might prove to be the pick of the relevant course winners, whilst SACRED ACT completes my trio against the field.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won five of the last ten renewals, the top priced winner being returned at just 15/2 during the period.  Six of the last eight favourites have secured Placepot positions.

Record of course winners in the fourth contest on the card:

1/4—Mutawathed

5/19—Alfred Hutchinson

1/3—Miracle Of Medinah

1/5--Baracouda Boy

3/8—Mr Bossy Boots

3/15—Shyron

2/4—Easy Tiger

 

2.25: Three-year-olds lead four-year-olds 6-3 via the last ten renewals, with six junior runners having been declared this time around, the pick of which will hopefully prove to be CRIBBS CAUSEWAY, VAL DE MARNE and MELODIC MOTION.  The middle named French raider will represent Placepot value for money as overseas raiders invariably do whatever their form, rivals and or class of contest.

Favourite factor: Only one of the last five favourites has finished in the frame.  Going back a little further in time however, it’s only fair to report that three of the last eight contests were secured by market leaders.

Record of course winner in the fifth event:

1/1—Cribbs Causeway

 

2.55: Three of the last five contests have been won by three-year-olds, whilst all ten winners during the last decade carried a minimum weight of 9-2.  Six junior raiders have been entered this time around, with your truly siding with the likes of MISS PACIFIC, UNIT OF ASSESSMENT and LUXFORD at the time of writing.  The trio are listed in order of preference, albeit marginally.

Favourite factor: Nine of the last ten renewals have been won by horses sent off at a top price of 8/1 during which time, three (3/1, 15/8 & 13/8) favourites prevailed.  Five of the eleven market leaders have finished in the frame during the last decade.

Record of course winners in the Placepot finale:

2/4—Rum Swizzle

3/27—Shifting Star

1/8—Silver Dixie

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Lingfield card on Thursday alongside their ratios on Lingfield’s A/W track this season + level stake profit/losses accrued:

3 runners—Ralph Beckett (5/20 – loss of 7 points)

3—Patrick Chamings (1/12 – loss of 7 points)

3—David Evans (1/60 – loss of 50 points)

3—John Gosden (4/16 – loss of 1 points)

3—William Haggas (5/11 +4)

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3—Sir Mark Prescott (2/14 +1)

3—Marcus Tregoning (3/6 +3)

2—Michael Attwater (7/44 +20)

2—Michael Bell (3/10 +3)

2—Martin Bosley (0/11)

2—Tony Carroll (5/36 – loss of 9 points)

2—Clive Cox (0/9)

2—Ed Dunlop (2/19 – loss of 9 points)

2—Richard Fahey (3/29 – loss of 14 points)

2—Eve Johnson Houghton (0/14)

2—William Knight (2/14 – loss of 9 points)

2—David O’Meara (2/19 – loss of 11 points)

2—Brendan Powell (0/4)

2—Amanda Perrett (4/31 – loss 16 points)

2—John Ryan (1/15 – loss of 2 points)

+54 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

101 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Sedgefield: £138.20 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

Stratford: £72.70 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Chelmsford: £486.40 – 8 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 25th October

NEWMARKET - OCTOBER 25

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £17.90 (6 favourites - 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Newmarket: 

Leg 1 (1.15): 7 (High Seas) & 8 (Lady Al Thumama)

Leg 2 (1.45): 6 (Left Alone) & 5 (La Diva)

Leg 3 (2.20): 5 (Letsme Avenue), 6 (Episcia), 18 (Contribute) & 1 (Move To The Front)

Leg 4 (2.55): 7 (Elwazir), 10 (Key Victory) & 13 (Maypole)

Leg 5 (3.30): 10 (Clearly), 5 (Song Maker) & 11 (Dynamic)

Leg 6 (4.05): 2 (Bow Street), 6 (Talas) & 8 (Wild West Hero)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

*It should be noted that there are no previous course winners on the entire card at Newmarket today – lest you thought I had forgotten to include them in my column!

 

Newmarket (Five year study of this meeting):

37 races – 12 winning favourites – 36/37 winners scored at a top price of 14/1

Average Placepot dividend: £136.80

Highest dividend: £353.60 (2012) - Lowest dividend: £17.90 (2016)

Leading trainer at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

5 winners—John Gosden (9/2, 4/1, 2/1, 8/13* & 2/5*) – 7 runners today:

Wild Impala (1.15), Timpani (1.45), Elsaakb (2.20), Burlington & Stylehunyer (2.55), Clearly (3.30) & Mythological (4.40)

 

1.15: Five of the six Placepot races are juvenile events, as are seven of the eight races on the card.  This makes for interesting racing, though aside from our favourite wager, perhaps any other wagers should be saved for another day though that said, the favourite stats (see below) are particularly impressive following five renewals of this opening event.  The fact that the first four races on the card are contested over the 'specialist seven furlong trip' adds to the intrigue.  Upwards and onward by adding that I am leaving my stats in the mix for this race because although the BHA deem this as a new contest, it is the same Class 5 event for juvenile fillies over seven furlongs as was ever the case, aside from its ‘new novice prefix’.  Twelve runners face the starter in this first division of the opening event, albeit only three entries have been taking seriously on the exchanges at time of writing.  I can only become involved from a Placepot perspective, whereby HIGH SEAS and LADY AL THUMAMA are taken ahead of Wild Impala from a value for money viewpoint.

Favourite factor:  The seven favourites to date have snared four gold medals and two of the bronze variety alongside toteplacepot positions.  The biggest priced winner thus far was returned at just 6/1.

 

1.45:  LEFT ALONE and (to a fashion) LA DIVA are the only horses being backed overnight and it would seem churlish to ignore their claims in a race which should not prove difficult to win, especially by Newmarket standards.

Favourite factor:  This is the second division of the opening event on the Newmarket card whereby the same stats apply, whatever the BHA might suggest. Leave it Mal – leave it!

 

2.20: Horses carrying nine stones or more have secured the four contests at 9/1-8/1-8/1-15/8* to date, statistics which potentially eliminate seven horses in the field.  Last year’s 9/1 winner (Tap Tap Boom) was short listed and hopefully included is this year’s gold medallist, my trio against the remaining 17 runners consisting of LETSBE AVENUE, EPISCIA and CONTRIBUTE.  Martin Meade saddles the latter named raider, with the trainer boasting 2/7 stats here on the Rowley Mile this season, winners which have produced level stake profits of 53 points.  I have included Martin’s representative even though his Bahamian Bounty gelding hails from the ‘inferior’ sector of the handicap. The reserve nomination is awarded to Clive Cox’s hat trick seeker MOVE TO THE FRONT, especially with Clive having ended a (rare) extended run of losers yesterday when celebrating a 9/1 success, a price which is still available with a few firms relating to his Lord Shankill colt.

Favourite factor: Only one of the four favourites (winner at 15/8) has secured a Placepot positions thus far.

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2.55: I won’t waste your time or mine, suffice to say that this is (supposedly) a new race but as nothing has changed aside for its name, I have left the updated stats in place.  That said, I have to confirm that this is my stance and not necessarily the opinion of ‘geegeez’. Upwards and onward by informing that Roger Varian saddled last year’s winner whereby his newcomer Masaarr will be watched with an eye to the future though from a Placepot perspective at the very least, ELWAZIR and Charlie Appleby’s Teofilo newcomer KEY VICTORY should figure prominently though once again, no money could be prized from my wallet relating to naming the winner of the contest.  That said, Bet365 are arguably too big at 11/1 about John Gosden’s Raven’s Pass debutant STYLEHUNTER, though the declaration of MAYPOLE (eye catching fourth at Goodwood on his first day at school) also suggests that the first named pair might not have things going all their own way in an intriguing event.

Favourite factor: Six of the seven winners have scored at a top price of 5/1, though we had to wait until 2015 for the first successful market leader to be recorded.  Five of the nine favourites have finished in the frame.

 

3.30: Although three-year-olds lead the four-year-old 3-2 from a win perspective to date, the older raiders edge the Placepot stats 8-7.  The only potential four-year-old in the field has been withdrawn whereby I will home in on the nine junior raiders. You will have noted the additional information about this meeting just before the race by race analysis which suggested that John Gosden was the trainer to behold and the popular handler might snare this prize with CLEARLY who looked a highly promising individual before her last effort whereby ‘headgear’ has been added into the equation this time around.  If the ‘aid’ does not work the oracle, SONG MAKER and DYNAMIC are taken as the main potential beneficiaries, the pair being listed in order of preference.

Favourite factor: Only two of the eight market leaders have finished in the frame via five renewals to date.  We still await the first successful favourites, whilst four of the five winners have scored at a top price of 15/2, the event having been secured by a 20/1 chance.

 

4.05: Yet another of the ‘novice’ races, whereby you will know the stance I have adopted against the powers that be! 13 renewals had slipped by the since the previous successful favourite before the 2015 market leader obliged, though the race reverted to type twelve months ago when the favourite was beaten, albeit a Placepot position was secured.  Cracksman won the contest last year though unfortunately, John Gosden does not have a representative this time around.  BOW STREET could monopolise the contest (apologies for that play on words), though newcomers TALAS and WILD WEST HERO are not eliminated from my thoughts as six o’clock strikes up this morning in the east wing of the Boyle estate.

Favourite factor: Market leaders have won seven of the last eighteen renewals whilst 13 of the 19 favourites have finished in the frame.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Newmarket card on Wednesday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

9 runners—Richard Hannon (5/48 – loss of 17 points)

7—John Gosden (11/52 +20)

5—Stuart Williams (0/10)

4—Charlie Appleby (13/33 (+27)

4—Ed Dunlop (0/18)

4—Roger Varian (5/29 +11)

3—Michael Appleby (1/14 – loss of 4 points)

3—Andrew Balding (5/33 – loss of 11 points)

3—Clive Cox (0/7)

3—Harry Dunlop (0/1)

3—Richard Fahey (2/30 – loss of 15 points)

3—William Haggas (3/30 – loss of 11 points)

3—Phil McBride (0/7)

3—Martin Meade (2/7 +53)

2—Robyn Brisland (0/1)

2—Tom Dascombe (2/9 – slight loss)

2—Charlie Fellowes (1/13 +2)

2—Charlie Hills (3/36 – loss of 36 points)

2—Mark Johnston (4/48 – loss of 16 points)

2—William Knight (0/5)

2—Hugo Palmer (1/26 – loss of 5 points)

2—John Ryan (1/11 – level on the year)

2—David Simcock (0/13)

2—Sir Michael Stoute (3/30 – loss of 12 points)

2—Mark Tompkins (No previous runners)

+ 22 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

101 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Sedgefield: The is a new meeting on the racing calendar

Worcester: £284.90 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced

Kempton (A/W): £116.90 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced