Racing Insights, 6th October 2021

The Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss.

And we offer this report free to everyone every Wednesday to supplement the daily free races, which for this Wednesday are...

  • 1.38 Sedgefield
  • 1.45 Navan
  • 3.05 Nottingham
  • 4.40 Navan
  • 5.50 Nottingham

My own settings for course 5 year handicaps on the TS report threw this at me when I just looked... I think I'll assess the chances of those two runners in the 2.48 Sedgefield, an 11-runner, 4yo+, soft ground, Class 5, Handicap Chase over a testing 3m3f...

Both horses raced against each other 19 days ago with Joey Steel winning a 4-runner, Class 4, handicap chase over 3m2f at Newton Abbot with his stablemate back in third place, some 20.5 lengths adrift. Both obviously drop in class here, Joey Steel is far better form, although Cage of Fear has been running well enough without much reward. After jockey allowances, Joey Steel still gets a 6lb pull from the top weight and in Nick Scholfield, has a jockey in good form.

Trainer Christian Williams' first runner here at Sedgefield was on 12th Jan 2018 and he's sent ten horses to run in handicaps here so far, achieving 5 wins and two runner-up finishes so far. With today's race in mind, those runners are...

  • 1/1 at Class 5
  • 4/7 over fences with two more placed
  • 2/8 with 1 placed from 8 yr olds (JS)
  • 0/1 from 7 yr olds (CoF)
  • 1/2 dropping down a class
  • 1/3 with one placed for jockey Jack Tudor (CoF)
  • 1/2 with the other placed for Nick Scholfield (JS)
  • 3/4 with the other placed from LTO winners (JS)
  • 1/1 over course and distance, albeit over hurdles
  • 1/1 on soft ground (C4, 3m2½f chase)

Cage of Fear was a winner just over a year ago in a Class 4 handicap chase over 3m½f at Perth whilst still with Fergal O'Brien. Truth be told, he hasn't really set the wrold alight in three runs for Christian Williams, but the drop in class, a career-low mark and a race at the yard's favourite track might just be the final spark he needs. He's certainly good enough to make the frame here and the ground/trip should be fine for him.

Joey Steel, on the other hand is going the other way and after finishing 2121 in his four outings this summer, he's now at a career high mark of 93. The yard have been patient with him and it took him a while to get the hang of things, but the boking of today's jockey Nick Scholfield for those last four races seems to have helped massively and I think they'll be the ones to beat here down in class.

Relevant past form...

Both have won on similar ground conditions and Joey Steel has won over a similar trip, but don't read too much into that 1 from 7 record at this grade, as he's also 1 from 3 at Class 4. He's now 4lbs higher than his LTO win, whilst Cage is some 13lbs lower than last year's success and could be dangerous off that mark, especially with Tack Tudor taking another 3lbs off.

And from a place perspective...

...suggesting that both of them are well suited to at least making the frame here.

Cage of Fear normally races prominently, whilst Joey Steel tends to come from off the pace, although he was much more advanced last time out. That was possibly because it was only a four-horse race and didn't want the leader to have an easy passage...

...but our pace analyser suggests that he might well want to repeat those tactics again here... these would seem to suit Cage of Fear far better than Joey Steel.


For me, based on all the above and looking at the others in the race, Joey Steel isn't only the better of the two Christian Williams runners, he's also the one to beat here full stop. As for Cage of Fear, I really think he could make the frame and might even get a 1-2 for the yard. He'll not have it all his own way, of course and the likes of Grey Atlantic Way and Crank Em Up could very well outrun their odds and get involved.

I wrote the above by 3.30pm before the markets had formed, when I returned to my desk at 5.45, Joey Steel was the 2/1 fav, which is a bit skinny in my opinion. Cage of Fear, however, was available at 10's and is worth a small E/W bet, too.


Racing Insights, 7th October 2020

Tuesday's race at Leicester went the way that some of my musings thought they might. Acclaim The Nation did lead with Ainsdale taking over before feeling the toll of added weight on heavy ground. This left the door open for eventual winner Blue de Vega who had a good pace/draw markup on our cards and was hailing from an in-form yard.

Next up is...

Wednesday 7th October

Feature of the Day is the Trainer Statistics report, which is free on Wednesdays to all registered subscribers. Register here if you need to.

And today I'm going take a look at the Trainer Stats report, Course 365 day Year view.  This report give us the option to filter what would otherwise be a very long list and I've always set mine at 15 runs minimum, A/E of at least 1.25 and an IV of 1.50 and upwards.

There's an excellent explanation about A/E & IV right here.

So, if we cut to the report...

...where the one I'm going to look at is Brian Ellison, who happens the be the only unprofitable one to follow at SP, suggesting more analysis of his Sedgefield runners is needed to avoid the losers. Clicking the show/hide inline button ie...

...reveals two runners to look at...

Danny Cook will ride the 6 yr old gelding Snookered in a 4-runner, Class 4 Novice chase over 2m0.5f, whilst Nathan Moscrop will claim 3lbs aboard a former course and distance winner, the 8 yr old gelding Crackdeloust in a another Class 4 contest, this time in a handicap hurdle over 2m1f.

A quick look at Brian Ellison's 8 Sedgefield winners over the last year shows that all 8 were males sent off at 9/2 or shorter and 6 had ran in the previous 45 days. There's a 5:3 spilt for handicap/non-handicap and a similar spilt for hurdles to chases. Six yr olds are 3 from 5 and October runners are 3 from 4, so plenty of encouragement on the breakdown.

Now to Snookered's race...

We see that Danny Cook is in good form right now and rides plenty of winners here at Sedgefield over the years so lots of positives there, whilst it's interesting to see that Snookered himself has finished 2111 in four visits to this track. His jumping will have to be taken on trust as (a) this is his chasing debut and (b) he hasn't even raced over hurdles for almost 9 months.

The distance record of 4/16 actually includes 3 wins and 2 places from 7 over hurdles at trips of 2m0.5f to 2m1f, so the trip should be ideal for him here today, we'd just want his jumping to hold up.

Now onto Crackdeloust...

..who it's obviously a bit harder to make a case for. And a look at the profiler tab tells us that he's actually won just 2 of 21 starts so far. However, both wins came at Class 4, off higher marks than today, going left-handed and after 3-4 weeks rest and all apply here today. He has one win at this trip, one at this track and one on good ground and all three came together for a course and distance win here back in April 2017.


Two runners who'll probably fare very differently. If Snookered takes to the fences at the first time of asking, plenty of other variables are in his favour and I'd expect him to go well. He's in good hands with Danny Cook and my only other concern other than a first crack at fences is that other statters will cotton and back him down to an artificially low price.

Crackdeloust, on the other hand, isn't as well suited by the task ahead. He ran well for fourth last time out after more than six months off the track, but without intending disrespect, the jockey booking doesn't fill me with confidence, nor does good ground. This lad needs it softer in my opinion, so he's going to have to pray for rain. Based on old ability, he's more than good enough to be involved in the shake-up here, but there are more than a couple I'd rather pick as a winner. That's not to say he couldn't grab a place at double-digit odds, but it's unlikely.

Stat of the Day, 10th March 2020

Monday's pick was...

5.40 Wolverhampton : Nezar @ 7/1 BOG 9th at 11/1 (Took keen hold, prominent, lost place over 1f out) : got that one very wrong.

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

3.15 Sedgefield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


Roxyfet @ 9/2 BOG a 10-runner, Class 5, Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m½f on soft ground worth £2,989 to the winner... 


Very number heavy today, so I'll break it down in to four sections, starting with...

...the horse, a 10 yr old gelding showing no signs of slowing down. A winner of 3 of his last four starts, having finished 221P11 in his last six (all here over C&D) and now seeks a hat-trick to add to an already decent 12 wins and 13 places from 71 that includes of note today...

  • 11 w, 12pl from 64 going left handed
  • 12+11/57 without headgear
  • 9+10/37 here at Sedgefield
  • 9+8/33 over 2m0.5f-2m1f
  • 9+8/32 at Class 5 for less than £3,500
  • 9+7/30 at 6/1 or shorter
  • 7+5/24 in Feb/March
  • 6+7/24 over fences at C&D
  • 6+8/29 on soft ground
  • and 3 wins from 4 under today's jockey...

...Emma Chaston-Smith, whose career record to date stands at 14 wins from 98 (+14.3% SR) for 18pts (+18.4% ROI), and those include of relevance here...

  • 13/82 (15.9%) for 26.1pts (+31.9%) since the start of 2018
  • 11/51 (21.6%) for 42.1pts (+82.5%) for trainer Micky Hammond (more on him very shortly)
  • 5/18 (27.8%) for 21.2pts (+117.6%) over fences
  • and 4/20 (20%) for 11.2pts (+56%) here at Sedgefield.

Now back to trainer Micky Hammond, because his handicap chasers are 16 from 60 (26.7% SR) for 15.2pts (+25.4% ROI) when sent off at 7/1 or shorter here at Sedgefield since the start of 2015, all males and with the following results under today's conditions...

  • 15/50 (30%) for 22.6pts (+45.2%) with those rested for 6-45 days
  • 14/52 (26.9%) for 17pts (+32.7%) with 7-10 yr olds
  • 9/36 (25%) for 8.68pts (+24.1%) on soft or worse ground
  • 8/20 (40%) for 21.5pts (+107.5%) in Feb/March
  • 8/30 (26.7%) for 14.1pts (+47%) in races worth less than £4,000
  • 7/26 (26.9%) for 14.6pts (+56.1%) at Class 5
  • 5/21 (23.8%) for 6.88pts (+32.7%) over this 2m0.5f C&D
  • and 3/10 (30%) for 2.03pts (+20.3%) with LTO winners

And then, it makes sense (to me at least) with round off with a look at the trainer/jockey combination, as Micky & Emma are 11/46 (23.9% SR) for 47.1pts (+102.4% ROI) when teaming up in handicaps, from which the following baker's dozen of profitable angles are all at play...

  • 10/41 (24.4%) for 48.8pts (+119.1%) with male runners
  • 10/39 (25.6%) for 50.8pts (+130.3%) in Feb/March
  • 8/31 (25.8%) for 46.2pts (+149.1%) on soft or worse ground
  • 8/28 (28.6%) for 45.7pts (+163.1%) in 8-12 runner contests
  • 8/26 (30.8%) for 44.8pts (+172.5%) with 8-10 yr olds
  • 8/25 (32%) for 46.7pts (+186.8%) at Class 5
  • 6/14 (42.9%) for 29.6pts (+211.4%) at odds of 4/1 to 7/1
  • 5/20 (25%) for 28.4pts (+142%) in races worth less than £4k
  • 5/20 (25%) for 13.6pts (+68%) when Emma claims 7lbs
  • 5/14 (35.7%) for 26.9pts (+192.2%) with horses rested for less than three weeks
  • 4/16 (25%) for 15.2pts (+94.9%) here at Sedgefield
  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 16.5pts (+183%) over 2m0.5f-2m1f
  • and 3/10 (30%) for 14.12pts (+141.2%) over fences

Congratulations if you've made it all the way through those numbers, I realise that not everyone is as interested as I am in them, but hopefully your patience will be rewarded...

...if you decide to place...a 1pt win bet on Roxyfet @ 9/2 BOG as was available from Betfair, BetVictor, Hills, Unibet & Paddy Power at 8.05am Tuesday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting... here for the betting on the 3.15 Sedgefield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!