CHELTENHAM – MARCH 13
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2017: £436.70 (7 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 3 unplaced)
Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are listed in brackets:
Race 1: 39.3% units went through – 25/1, 3/1**, 8/1 (3/1**)
Race 2: 87.1% of the remaining units when through – 1/4*, 12/1 25/1
Race 3: 42.8% of the remaining units went through – 9/1, 5/1*, 15/2, 33/1
Race 4: 30.1% of the remaining units went through – 5/1, 16/1, 6/1 (2/1)
Race 5: 95.2% of the remaining units went through – 7/2, 11/4, 6/4*
Race 6: Just 3.9% of the units secured the dividend – 16/1, 50/1, 33/1 (4/1)
Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Cheltenham:
Leg 1 (1.30): 6 (Kalashnikov) & 4 (Getabird)
Leg 2 (2.10): 5 (Saint Calvados) & 2 (Footpad)
Leg 3 (2.50): 10 (Ramses De Teillee), 17 (Cogry), 4 (Shantou Flyer) & 18 (Eamon An Cnoic)
Leg 4 (3.30): 1 (Buveur D’Air) & 4 (Elgin)
Leg 5 (4.10): 1 (Apples Jade), 6 (La Bague Au Roi) & 8 (Midnight Tour)
Leg 6 (4.50): 5 (Jury Duty), 9 (No Comment), 16 (Ms Parfois) & 4 (Impulsive Star)
Suggested stake: 384 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.30: Two things to say before I light the blue touch paper. Firstly with four different courses to race on, the relevant course winners listed under each race have not been identified as C/D winners at Cheltenham this week because of the different 'routes' relating to so many horses and events, notwithstanding the ground which will probably dictate matters these next four days more than anything else. Those damned bookmakers to go into the week with an edge, albeit the ground for most of this season has been soft or worse given the weather conditions we have endured. Upwards and onward by revealing that five and six-year-olds have won 14 of the last 15 renewals of this opening event between them, securing 41/45 each way/toteplacepot positions during the study period. If you want to venture back further in time, 39/45 winners have represented the two vintages. Melon was not as short as GETABIRD twelve months ago when beaten but it could be argued that KALASHNIKOV is the only serious rival this time around; hence the average 7/4 quote in most ‘books’ in the dead of night. Despite the presence of plenty of half decent each way types in the field, I will leave you to determine which horse might cause something of a shock in the opening event as I home in on the front two horses in the market.
Favourite factor: Fate of recent favourites: 26 market leaders—5 winners—9 placed—12 unplaced. First three in the betting: 71 runners--12 winners--21 placed--38 unplaced.
Cheltenham record of course winners in the 'Supreme Novices':
2/3—Slate House (good & soft)
1/2—Western Ryder (soft)
2.10: FOOTPAD is a worthy favourite for the Arkle as Willie Mullins looks to win the race for the third time in four years. His fencing has looked well up to the mark thus far, though I doubt he will have been rushed into the obstacles as much as is potentially on the cards today with SAINT CALVADOS in the field. I have loved watching Harry Whittington’s five-year-old almost hurdling his fences this year, though that tendency is of course, dangerous at the top level when races are run so quickly. What has impressed me even more in his way of turning up the gas in the second third of his races which definitely tends to get rivals flustered and it will be interesting to see if that happens again today. Petit Mouchoir has definitely been ‘iffy’ when negotiating the larger obstacles thus far, which is very much one of the reasons I prefer the first named pair in what should be a fabulous spectacle. Brain Power might have better suited to Aintree, especially with the ground probably being more in his favour at the Liverpool venue.
Favourite factor: Fate of recent favourites: 23 market leaders—7 winners—6 placed—10 unplaced. First three in the betting: 70 runners--14 winners--18 placed--38 unplaced.
2.50: Fourteen of the last nineteen winners carried a maximum burden of 10-12 whereby the recent dual winning efforts of Un Temps Pour Tout in the race are all the more impressive. David Pipe has offered the green light to a pair of heavy ground inmates this time around and it would be a brave person to put lines through the chances of RAMSES DE TEILLEE and EAMON AN CNOIC as David bids for his fourth winner of the race in the last eleven years. COGRY will probably be in another parish compared to the front runners for most of the race, though few will be finishing stronger I’ll wager. SHANTOU FLYER completes my ‘short list’ against the field, especially as horses high in the handicap of late have been making their mark as opposed to days of old.
Favourite factor: Fate of recent favourites: 27 market leaders—1 winner—12 placed—14 unplaced. First three in the betting: 71 runners--10 winners--20 places--41 unplaced.
Cheltenham record of course winners in the Handicap Chase:
2/6—Shantou Flyer (good & soft)
1/5—O O Seven (good)
2/6—Vicente (good & good to soft)
2/6—Singlefarmpayment (good & heavy)
1/8—Coo Star Sivola (good to soft)
2/9—Cogry (good & soft)
3.30: I suggested that the ground looked like being too lively for BUVEUR D’AIR twelve months ago whereby his chance to defend his crown successfully is there for all to see this time around. A winner of nine of this ten races over timber to date, Nicky Henderson’s grand servant could go on to emulate Nicky’s hat trick hero in the race, namely See You Then who scored between 1985 & 1987 putting the trainer and jockey Steve Smith Eccles in the shop window. Money has dried up quite remarkably for Faugheen these last 24 hours, whereby ELGIN could sneak into the frame at a big price, whilst similar comments apply to last year’s runner up My Tent Or Yours. Willie Mullins saddles some old faces but none of them should be able to budge the champion from his perch under these conditions.
Favourite factor: Fate of recent favourites: 24 market leaders—9 winners—6 placed—9 unplaced. First three in the betting: 69 runners--11 winners--25 placed--33 unplaced.
Cheltenham record of course winners in the 'Champion Hurdle':
1/2—Buveur D’Air (good to soft)
2/2—Faugheen (good & good to soft)
1/6—My Tent Or Yours (soft)
1/3—Wicklow Brave (soft)
2/2—Yorkhill (2 x good)
4.10: As a winner of ten of her fourteen races to date, APPLES JADE has a genuine case of boasting that she has done most to project trainer Gordon Elliot to the top of the tree in his chosen profession and there is every reason to suspect that Gordon’s six-year-old mare will improve her ratio this afternoon. That said, the odds are prohibitive whereby I am offering a massive outsider to consider form a win and place perspective, namely MIDNIGHT TOUR. Few trainers have had as much each way success with big priced runners in recent years as Alan King and 66/1 (available with plenty of firms this morning) is something of an insult to Davy Russell’s mount in my considered opinion. LA BAGUE AU ROI more than deserves her chance in the race.
Favourite factor: The ten favourites have snared six golds and one silver/bronze medals to date, impressive stats that would have looked even better but for the fall at the last flight of Annie Power three years ago with the race at her mercy.
Cheltenham record of course winners in the 'Mares Hurdle':
1/2—Apples Jade (good to soft)
1/3—Indian Stream (good)
1/4—Midnight Tour (good)
4.50: Seven-year-olds have won seven of the last thirteen contests and there are least three stand out vintage representatives on this occasion, all of which are due to be ridden by household names which is not always the case in this event. The trio is listed in order of preference as JURY DUTY, NO COMMENT and MS PARFOIS, with IMPULSIVE STAR added into Placepot equation. Should Keeper Hill brush up his fencing on the big day, the Warren Greatrex raider would a threat to them all, though we cannot take that scenario for granted by any means.
Favourite factor: Fate of recent favourites: 23 market leaders—5 winners—4 placed—14 unplaced. First three in the betting: 72 runners--8 winners--14 placed--50 unplaced.
Cheltenham record of course winners in the 'NH Chase':
1/3—Clondaw Cian (soft)
1/9—Sizing Tennessee (soft)
1/2—Ms Parfois (soft)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Cheltenham card on Tuesday – followed by their ratios at the track this season and then their five year figures + profits/losses during that period:
13—Nicky Henderson (9/28) – 38/337 – loss of 142 points
13—Willie Mullins (0/1) – 27/221 – loss of 68
7—Gordon Elliot (1/8) – 13/110 +21
5—Henry De Bromhead (1/5) – 3/61 – loss of 38
5—Colin Tizzard (7/38) – 19/193 – loss of 87
4—Nigel Twiston-Davies (7/41) – 28/245 – loss of 69
3—Tom George (1/19) – 6/103 – loss of 61
3—Warren Greatrex (1/7) – 4/66 – loss of 36
2—Philip Hobbs (1/16) – 34/244 – loss of 19
2—Richard Hobson (0/2) – 0/15
2—Alan King (2/6) – 19/162 – loss of 27
2—Sophie Leech (0/154) – 1/33 – loss of 12
2—Donald McCain (1/4) – 3/39 – level profit/loss during the last five years
2—Neil Mulholland (2/5) – 10/69 – loss of 9
2—Paul Nicholls (4/28) – 42/361 – loss of 6
2—David Pipe (1/12) – 23/205 - +2
2—Sue Smith (First runners at Cheltenham this season) – 0/9
2—Harry Whittington (0/1) – 0/8
2—Evan Williams (0/6) – 7/88 – loss of 4
2—Nick Williams (1/11) – 6/54 +25
2—Venetia Williams (0/5) – 3/119 – loss of 82
+ 22 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
101 declared runners (115 last year)
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Sedgefield: £58.10 – 6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced
Southwell: £8.00 – 6 favourites – 4 winners & 2 placed