Posts

Placepot Pointers – Friday 12th January

LINGFIELD – JANUARY 12

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £126.80 (8 favourites - 2 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Lingfield: 

Leg 1 (12.20): 2 (Star Story) & 1 (Swiss Vinnare)

Leg 2 (12.50): 1 (Father Alibe), 3 (Imperial Red) & 2 (Ocean Side)

Leg 3 (1.20): 1 (Dark Alliance) & 7 (Ubla)

Leg 4 (1.50): 7 (No Approval), 6 (Black Dave) & 1 (Kingsley Klarion)

Leg 5 (2.20): 4 (Mystique Moon) & 3 (Suzi’s Connoisseur)

Leg 6 (2.50): 1 (Juan Horsepower). 2 (Menelik) & 6 (Monumental Man)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.20:  Seven pound claimer Nicola Currie is the latest lady rider to come off the production line to very good effect, especially given her 41/1 treble yesterday which will give added confidence to the jockey aboard SWISS VINNARE.  Trainer Phil McEntee has saddled four of his last ten runners to winning effect too, though the same horse (Spare Parts) won three of those races which dilutes the impressive ratio to a fashion.  STAR STORY is the horse to beat if the headlines are potentially heading in the direction of Nicola and Phil again early doors.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the card at Lingfield with which to open proceedings.

Record of the course winners in the field:

1/2—Swiss Vinnare

1/3—Retrieve

3/16—Turnberry

 

12.50:  Just two weeks ago, this would have been a Nursery event which accounts for the tight looking handicap which needs to be solved.  FATHER ALIBE (the first of no less than six runners on the card for trainer John Butler) gets the marginal nod over IMPERIAL RED and OCEAN SIDE.  There has been money for the first named Excelebration gelding, whilst the reserve nomination is awarded to Global Angel though in truth, I rarely call the Ed Dunlop trained horses the right way.

Favourite factor: Two of the four favourites (via just two renewals) have secured Placepot positions, stats which include one (9/4) winner.

 

1.20: Two of the last three horses saddled by Daniel Mark Loughnane have won, the first of them being DARK ALLIANCE just four days ago at Wolverhampton. The seven-year-old escapes a penalty for that victory and the trainer seems to have found an ideal opportunity for his Dark Angel gelding to win in this grade/company.  MADRINHO (another of the John Butler raiders on the card) is attracting each way support as I write, though that small gamble is not being replicated on the exchanges in the dead of night.  11/1 is available with a few firms about UBLA and given the positive course stats, win and place investors might be rewarded to minimum stakes if nothing else appeals.

Favourite factor: All three favourites had secured Placepot positions (including two 6/4 & even money winners), before last year’s 6/4 market leader finished tenth of the eleven runners.

Record of the course winners in the third race:

1/8—Passing Star

2/4—Ubla

3/25--Bookmaker

 

1.50: The 25/1 trade press quote about KINGSLEY KLARION is looking a tad big this morning as more money for a John Butler representative has been recorded whilst other were working on their ‘beauty sleep’.  More logical winners in the field include BLACK DAVE (impressive stats to offer at Lingfield) and NO APPROVAL who has plenty of realistic money in the positive queue on the exchanges to report. As for beauty sleep, some of us don’t need it because in certain aspects of life, we were declared as also rans many seasons ago!

Favourite factor: This is the second division of the third race on the card whereby the same stats apply.  All three favourites had secured Placepot positions (including two 6/4 & even money winners), before last year’s 6/4 market leader finished tenth of the eleven runners.

Record of the course winners in the fourth contest on the card:

1/5—Kingsley Klarion

1/4—Bridge Of Sighs

2/9—Complicit

1/9—Bobbie Benton

1/1—Luna Magic

Your first 30 days for just £1

5/12—Black Dave

9/46—Seek The Fair Land

 

2.20:  Charlie Appleby has his team in fine form (recent ratio of 7/16) as is seemingly always the case and it is worth noting that Charlie’s only runner until Monday (at the earliest) is MYSTIQUE MOON.  Stuart Williams is the brave trainer who offers a double attack on the favourite, with SUZI’S CONNOISSEUR marginally preferred to Swift Approval, though the ‘jury was out’ for a long time before the far from unanimous decision was declared.

Favourite factor: This is another new race on the card at Lingfield.

Record of the course winners in the field:

2/2—Early Morning

1/4—Mr Scaramanga

1/5—Unforgiving Minute

4/17--Shyron

 

2.50: Considering the number of horses that Richard Hannon has saddled here at Lingfield, it’s worth noting that the trainer has recorded a level stake profit at the track whereby with little else to work with, I’m offering JUAN HORSEPOWER up as the first name on the team sheet.  The 7/1 quotes by Bet365 and BetVictor might not last until the offices open later this morning though either way, I’m taking the course winner to get the better of MENELIK and MONUMENTAL MAN at the business end of proceedings.  This trio offer better value for money from a Placepot perspective than other contenders from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: Both (4/5 & 7/4) market leaders had prevailed before last year’s 11/8 market leader finished out with the washing.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/6—Juan Horsepower

4/17—Menelik

2/8—Pour La Victoire

2/10—Dutiful Son

5/10—Monumental Man

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Lingfield card on Friday – followed by this career ratios at the track + profits/losses accrued:

6 runners—John Butler (15/104 – loss of 11 points)

3—Simon Dow (151/1666 – loss of 524)

3—David Evans (166/1611 – loss of 634)

3—Richard Hannon (60/336 +22)

2—Michael Attwater (58/720 – loss of 116)

2—John Bridger (82/1644 – loss of 650)

2—Phil McEntee (43/576 – loss of 253)

2—Stuart Williams (93/668 – loss of 134)

+ 46 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

69 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Huntingdon: £69.50 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

Newcastle: This is a new meeting

The meeting at Sedgefield was abandoned

 

 

Placepot pointers – Tuesday 26th December

KEMPTON - DECEMBER 26

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £742.50 (7 favourites - 2 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced)

 

Boxing Day Placepot permutation at Kempton: 

Leg 1 (12.45): 2 (Diese Des Bieffes) & 1 (If The Cap Fits)

Leg 2 (1.20): 2 (Reigning Supreme), 5 (Wenterreadyfreddie) & 8 (Mister Whitaker)

Leg 3 (1.55): 7 (Mia’s Storm), 1 (Ballyoptic) & 4 (Fountains Windfall)

Leg 4 (2.30): 1 (Buveur D’Air) & 5 (The New One)

Leg 5 (3.05): 1 (Bristol De Mai), 4 (Might Bite) & 3 (Fox Norton)

Leg 6 (3.40): 6 (Take To Heart), 2 (Dashing Oscar), 3 (Connetable) & 5 (Jaleo)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

Please note the additional service below relating to stats which are available for every represented trainer at Kempton on Boxing Day.

 

12.45: On a general front, it's worth noting that 48% of the Kempton entries on Boxing Day hail from just five stables, whilst 65% are covered by just eight handlers.  Four and five-year-olds have secured 17 of the last 19 renewals of this opening contest.  Nicky Henderson has secured five renewals during the study period having held two entries at the weekend.  That said, DIESE DES BIEFFES was always the likely declaration and his is the first name on the team sheet, marginally ahead of Harry Fry’s Milan gelding IF THE CAP FITS who boasts a 4/5 record this far.  Harry Whittington boasts a fine record here at Kempton and readers should not dispel the chance of Simply The Betts too quickly.
Favourite factor: Seven favourites have obliged via the last 18 renewals, and aside from a 20/1 winner in 1999, the biggest priced gold medallist during the period was returned at 12/1 (four years ago).  14 of the last 19 market leaders have finished in the frame though that does not include last year’s (1/2) favourite which finished fourth.

Record of the course winner in the field: 

1/1--Irish Prophecy (good to soft)

1.20: Six and seven-year-olds have won ten of the last thirteen renewals between them whilst 11 of the last 15 winners have carried weights of eleven stones or more.  Nicky Henderson has won five of the last ten renewals with the trainer holding ‘four cards’ at the penultimate entry stage.  Nicky has offered the green light to REIGNING SUPREME and WENYERREADYFREDDIE and I consider it extremely doubtful that both horses will finish out of the money, though this is race for watching rather than to become involved from a win perspective from my viewpoint.  If Nicky is to be denied another success, the likeliest party-pooper appears to be MISTER WHITAKER, albeit Mick Channon’s only projected runner until next Saturday hails from the ‘inferior’ sector of the weights.
Favourite factor: Seven favourites have snared gold via 16 renewals to date, though just five of the other fourteen market leaders additionally claimed toteplacepot positions.

1.55: This is the race which set up last year’s good Placepot dividend, with the first four horses in the betting finishing out of the frame at 3/1, 10/3 & 11/2 (twice). Six-year-olds have won eight of the last thirteen renewals of this event and with BLACK CORTON representing the vintage this time around (alongside SOME INVITATION), the trend could well be extended.  Black Corton continues to defy his ‘doubters’, though there is no denying that this is his biggest test to date.  Some Invitation lacks a little experience over fences in comparison to others, whereby I’m opting (rightly or wrongly) for MIA’S STORM, BALLYOPTIC and FOUNTAINS WINDFALL just ahead of the six-year-olds this time around in a fascinating event.  When you are working this far in advance of a race like this, it is as well to have contenders who will act on the relevant ground when the flag falls, which I have taken into account according.  Foolishly perhaps, I think I have all eventualities covered!
Favourite factor: Seven of the last 20 market leaders have prevailed, whilst 12 favourites secured toteplacepot positions.  15 of the last 20 winners were returned at odds of 6/1 or less though that said, two of the last four gold medallists scored at 33/1 & 12/1.

Record of the course winner in the third race:

1/2--Black Corton (good)

2.30: Six-year-olds have won six of the last eleven renewals of this Christmas Hurdle and with BUVEUR D’AIR having been declared, the ratio looks likely to be improved upon on Tuesday.  This track is too quick for THE NEW ONE as I have documented before and I hope the favourite puts Nigel’s brave warrior into his place in proper fashion here as I fully expect that The New One could go very close in the ‘Stayers’ sector at the Cheltenham Festival, possibly resulting in a Championship victory at Prestbury Park in March which he so richly deserves.  I’m afraid that will not happen if Nigel enters him in the Champion Hurdle again for all that he would run a good race, pure and simple. The same comment applies here because the old warrior simply refuses to down tools, even when the odds are stacked against him.  Back to the champion hurdler now, because his victory in the ‘Fighting Fifth’ at Newcastle showed that last year’s results where no flash in the pan and whatever ‘Ireland’ sends over in March, I expect Buveur D’Air to repel all challengers at this stage of the season.
Favourite factor: Seven of the last fourteen favourites have won, though the previous four market leaders were all beaten during the study period.  11 of the last 18 market leaders secured toteplacepot positions.

Record of the course winners in the Christmas Hurdle:

1/3--Old Guard (good)

3/6--The New One (2 x good to soft & good)

3.05: Seven-year-olds have won seven of the last 17 renewals of the King George, even taking into account that the vintage was not represented two years ago.  FOX NORTON was among just three relevant entries last week and although all three runners have stood their ground, only Colin Tizzard’s raider can be given a chance of lowering the colours of more fancied runners in the contest.   I have to admit that I thought we had seen the best of BRISTOL DE MAIN in his novice days before his resurgence this term when he has simply blown his rivals away.  It’s difficult to tell just how soft the ground will be writing this column over 50 hours in advance of the race but be assured, connections be welcoming every drop of rain between now and flag fall, especially on one of the quickest drying courses in the land.  Providing that it is at least good to soft on all parts of the track, Nigel’s raider will give MIGHT BITE a real race and 4/1 at the time of writing looks too big from my viewpoint, despite the unknown ground factor.  MIGHT BITE is a talented individual and no mistake and last year’s leading novice made short work of the opposition when landing a Listed event at Sandown on his reappearance.  It would going over the top to suggest that THISTLECRACK was the forgotten horse in the contest but he has questions to answer now and from that perspective, his odds fail to attract my attention.
Favourite factor: Although 11 favourites have won the King George during the last 19 years, seven of the other 11 market leaders failed to finish in the frame. Only Jair Du Cochet (pulled up in 2003 behind the much underrated Edredon Bleu), Kauto Star (2010) and Long Run (2011) had failed to snare gold via the ‘jollies perspective’ in the previous 11 years, before joint beaten favourites Cue Card & Dynaste both let the side down in 2013.

Course winners in the 'King George':

1/2--Double Shuffle (good)

1/2--Might Bite (good)

3/4--Tea For Two (2 x good to soft & soft)

1/1--Thistlecrack (good)

1/1--Whisper (good)

3.40: Nine of the last eleven winners of the finale have carried a minimum burden of 11-2, whilst Nicky Henderson (TAKE TO HEART – set to carry 11-4) has secured three of the last eleven contests. This appears to be the one race on the card that could give bookmakers some breathing space, given that their ledgers (I'm showing my age) will be dominated by so few horses in the previous events on the card.  That said, four-year-olds have won the last four contests though in the circumstances, can you believe that just one of the 26 penultimate stage entries was a four-year-old.  It’s as though trainers want bookmakers to earn a great living, especially as the relevant vintage represented has not been declared for the gig!  The weight trends suggest that it would be churlish to ignore the Placepot claims of DASHING OSCAR, and CONNETABLE alongside Take To Heart.  If the weight trend goes ‘belly up’ this time around, I’m adding JALEO into the mix who would have run from the ‘superior’ sector of the handicap but for Alex Ferguson’s useful claim.  I sincerely hope that you back lots of winners over the Christmas period and that you are enjoying the festivities thus far.
Favourite factor: Four of the last 13 favourites have won, whilst eight of the eighteen market leaders have finished in the frame during the study period.

Record of course winners in the finale:

2/2--Our Kaempfer (2 x good to soft)

1/2--Doesyourdogbite (good)

1/3--Mr Fickle (good)

 

Your first 30 days for just £1

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

EVERY TRAINER LISTED with their relevant number of runners on the Kempton card on Boxing Day – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) and career ratios at the track + level stake profits/losses accrued on both counts:

7 runners—Nicky Henderson (5/18 – loss of 5 points) – 226/888 - +72

5—Gary Moore (0/12) – 28/393 – loss of 167

5—Colin Tizzard (1/3 +8) – 20/125 +48

4—Paul Nicholls (6/12 – loss of 1 point) – 11/6/515 – loss of 55

4—Dan Skelton (0/12) – 8/96 – loss of 69

3—Harry Fry (2/6 – Slight profit) – 12/61 – loss of 12

3—Alan King (1/10 – loss of 7) – 75/475 – loss of 82

3—Nigel Twiston-Davies (1/2 +1) – 46/326 – loss of 51

2—Emma Lavelle (0/2) – 27/180 – loss of 29

2—Ben Pauling (1/3 +2) – 5/31 – loss of 12

1—Peter Bowen (1/2 +5) – 8/57 – loss of 16

1—Ben Case (0/1) – 1/33 – loss of 28

1—Mick Channon (First runner this season) – 7/36 +12

1—Tom George (1/4 – Slight profit) – 24/147 +18

1—Nick Gifford (0/1) – 5/98 – loss of 68

1—Chris Gordon (0/6) – 9/73 +25)

1—Anthony Honeyball (First runner this season) – 0/8

1—Charlie Longsdon (0/5) – 11/101 – loss of 16

1—Phil Middleton (1/1 +10) – 1/10 +1

1—Seamus Mullins (0/1) – 5/116 – loss of 61

1—Jonjo O’Neill (1/8 – loss of 4 points) – 32/268 – loss of 125

1—Harry Whittington (1/4 +8) – 4/16 +11

1—Ian Williams (1/3 – Slight loss) – 11/89 +3

1—Nick Williams (0/1) 0 7/44 – loss of 3

52 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Fontwell: £83.80 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 placed

Huntingdon: £73.80 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

Market Rasen: £192.20 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Sedgefield: £66.70 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Wincanton: £307.10 – 5 favourites (1 void) – 3 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced

Wolverhampton: £810.40 – 6 favourites – 1 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

Wetherby: £3,021.60 – 6 favourites – No winners – 3 placed – 3 unplaced

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday 8th December

SANDOWN - DECEMBER 8

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £1,787.90 (7 favourites - 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Sandown: 

Leg 1 (12.50): 7 (Shanroe Santos), 2 (Pickamix) & 12 (Lunar Flow)

Leg 2 (1.25): 1 (Jukebox Jive), 5 (Night Of Glory)

Leg 3 (1.55): 3 (Touch Kick) & 5 (Darebin)

Leg 4 (2.30): 2 (On The Blind Side) & 8 (White Moon)

Leg 5 (3.05): 5 (Bally Gilbert), 3 (Workbench) & 7 (Gregarious)

Leg 6 (3.35): 12 (Cap Du Nord), 5 (Rainy Day Dylan) & 9 (Le Capriceux)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.50: Nine of the thirteen horses to have secured toteplacepot positions thus far have carried a minimum weight of 11-4, statistics which include three (10/1, 7/1 & 3/1) of the five gold medallists.  Taking all the jockey claims into account, seven of the thirteen declarations ‘qualify’ via the weight trend.  SHANROE SANTOS catches the eye for at least two reasons having won under these projected (good to soft) conditions here at Sandown already, representing Lucy Wadham whose Sandown record (see stats at the foot of the column) is worth noting in no uncertain terms.  Six-year-olds come to the gig on a hat trick which also brings PICKAMIX into the equation.  If I had to pick out one horse which sits below the ‘superior’ weight barrier on this occasion, the vote would have to go to LUNAR FLOW whose trainer Jamie Snowden has bagged three winners via his last eight runners.  Out of interest, there was support for Jamie’s six-year-old gelding overnight which adds interest to proceedings.
Favourite factor: Four of the five favourites thus far have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include two (3/1 & 7/4) winners.

Record of the course winners in the opening event:

1/5—Pete The Feat (soft)

1/1—Shanroe Santos (good to soft)

2/2—Jennys Surprise (2 x soft)

 

1.25: There have been a few short priced casualties in this event down the years (including an 8/15 chance two years ago) whereby interpretation of potential investors steaming into fancied runners too heavily should be issued with a health warning, though including such runners in Placepot permutations is okay with yours truly, as was (successfully) the case twelve months ago. Anthony Honeyball was in the middle of a ‘purple patch’ when nearly everything he touched turned to gold when JUKEBOX JUVE won on debut at Fontwell on this type of ground.  The yard subsequently (inevitably) went through a quieter patch though it’s worth noting that Anthony scored with both of his entries yesterday.  That said, part time NH trainer Andrew Balding has won with four of the thirteen runners he has saddled in the last five years at this venue, whereby the chance of his newcomer NIGHT OF GLORY is thoroughly respected.  Any further interest for TOMMY HALLINON on the exchanges (there has been some investment already) would add interest and no mistake.
Favourite factor: Seven favourites have won via eighteen renewals, whilst 12 of the 19 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

 

1.55: 12 of the 15 winners to date have carried weights of 11-3 or more, whilst five-year-olds have secured five of the last ten contests via less than 20% of the total number of runners in those races. No five-year-olds were declared last year and with DAREBIN being the only representative on show today, trainers need to wake up and smell the coffee as far as this contest in concerned.  Like Toomy Hallinan in the previous race, I can report early support/activity for a Paul Nicholls runner on the card, given that the 6/1 trade press quote about TOUCH KICK was never really in evidence and in the odd place that early birds might have had some pickings, the price did not last for long.
Favourite factor: Four favourites have snared gold thus far, whilst 11 of the 19 jollies have reached the frame.

Record of the course winners in the third event:

1/4—Darebin (soft)

 

2.30: Some really good horses have won this race down the years including Inglis Drever, What’s Up Boys and the ill-fated Rouble to name but three fine thoroughbreds, notwithstanding Fingal Bay six years ago.  Last year’s winner went on to lift the Challow Hurdle next time out at Newbury before securing place positions in Grade 1 events at the Cheltenham & Aintree festivals earlier this year. Five-year-olds have won nine of the last seventeen renewals, with ON THE BLIND SIDE (Nicky Henderson’s only raider on the card) and WHITE MOON (one of just two runners for Colin Tizzard at Sandown today) hailing from the vintage on this occasion with definite claims.  Alan King has saddled four of the last eight winners though the popular trainer is not represented today.  I have left the stat in place, knowing that some readers keep these records for future use.
Favourite factor: All 18 winners have been returned at odds of 11/2 or less, stats which includes six winning favourites.  Eight of the last thirteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

Your first 30 days for just £1

 

3.05: If the ground becomes soft by the time that this event is reached, don’t be too surprised if there is some money forthcoming for dual course winner GREGARIOUS at around the 20/1 mark, especially given the Lucy Wadham Sandown stats which I referred to earlier.  Apologies for that last phrase which sounded like a ‘House of Commons’ remark my learned friends!  Upwards and onward by admitting that more logical winners at the time of writing include BALLY GILBERT and WORKBENCH though if you prefer the latter named Dan Skelton raider, you might care to take a look at his negative Sandown stats below before wading in too heavily.  BALLY GILBERT has already been the subject of plenty of overnight support and hailing from Ben Pauling’s yard, it’s not difficult to see why.
Favourite factor: One of the three favourites (via two renewals) has finished in the frame thus far without tinning the relevant contest.

Record of the course winners in the fifth race:

2/3—Gregarious (2 x soft)

3.35: Six-year-olds have won three of the last five renewals and with RAINY DAY DYLAN and LE CARICIEAX among their number this time around, the trend could be enhanced today.  You have to admire the patience of a trainer like Christian Williams.  Christian has only saddled five winners to date, whereby it would have come as no surprise for the trainer to have tried to capitalize on his best success to date when scoring with Limited Reserve at Haydock a fortnight ago.  The fact that he has waited until today to send out his next runner is admirable from my viewpoint and I wish him and the team all the luck in the world for the future, starting with CAP DU NORD in this contest.
Favourite factor: 17 of the 18 winners have been returned at odds of 11/1 or less, whilst four clear and one joint favourite have obliged for supporters of the market leaders.  11 of the 21 favourites have finished in the frame.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Sandown card on Friday – followed by their seasonal stats (in brackets)  and five year ratios at Sandown + level stake profits/losses accrued on both counts:

6 runners—Gary Moore (0/4) – 21/95 +83

4—Paul Nicholls (0/6) – 24/162 – loss of 18 points

3—Dan Skelton (0/4) – 1/37 – loss of 30 points

2—Philip Hobbs (0/2) – 14/72 +3

2—Charlie Longsdon (0/3) – 4/48 – loss of 11 points)

2—Jonjo O’Neill (0/3) – 2/48 – loss of 40 points

2—Ben Pauling (0/1) – 0/15

2—Colin Tizzard (0/1) – 2/38 – loss of 32 points

2—Lucy Wadham (First runners this season) – 6/25 +12

2—Christian Williams (0/1) – No previous runners

2—Nick Williams (First runners this season) – 3/24 – loss of 5 points

+ 27 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

56 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Exeter: Meeting abandoned

Sedgefield: £54.40 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 4 placed – 2 unplaced

Wolverhampton: £103.29 – 7 favourites – 1 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced

 

Stat of the Day, 8th December 2017

Thursday's Result :

3.00 Market Rasen : Triopas @ 11/4 BOG WON at 11/8 Made all, ridden 2 out, found extra when pressed flat, winning by three lengths.

Next up is Friday's...

12.40 Sedgefield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Charmant @ 5/1 BOG

A Class 5, 3yo+ Novices Handicap Hurdle over 2m1f on Soft ground worth £2,599 to the winner...

And a 5 yr old gelding trained by James Ewart, who despite not sending many horses here to Sedgefield, does rather well at the venue. Numerically, we 're talking just 74 runners in 9 years, but 13 winners (17.6% SR) and 9.5pts (+12.8% ROI) profit make James profitable to follow blindly. If you wanted to be more selective, you could try on of the following angles derived from those 74 runners...

  • handicaps = 12/62 (19.4%) for 11.5pts (+18.5%)
  • at 2/1 to 12/1 : 11/57 (19.3%) for 21.4pts 9+37.5%)
  • hurdlers = 6/37 (16.2%) for 2.6pts (+7%)
  • at Class 5 = 7/27 (25.9%) for 19.6pts (+72.7%)
  • on Soft ground : 5/23 (21.7%) for 18.6pts (+81%)

AND...with Class 5 handicap hurdlers priced at 2/1 to 9/1 : 5/14 (35.7% SR) for 22.6pts (+161.1% ROI)

This is also James' only runner of the day anywhere and since 2009, his single entrants are 59/324 (18.2% SR) for 112pts (+34.6% ROI), from which...

  • handicap hurdlers are 19/93 (20.4%) for 75.5pts (+81.2%)
  • and Class 5 handicap hurdlers are 9/22 (40.9%) for 49.8pts (+226.4%)

And finally, a quick word about Charmant's breeding, as he's a son of Balko, whose offspring are 14/65 (21.5% SR) for 16.2pts (+24.9% ROI) over the last two years and these figures include...

  • over hurdles : 5/25 (20%) for 12.24pts (+49%)
  • and at trips of 16.5/17 furlongs : 4/11 (36.4%) for 12.2pts (+110.9%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Charmant @ 5/1 BOG which was widely available at 5.40pm on Thursday, but those able to take SkyBet's 11/2 BOG should do so! To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 12.40 Sedgefield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday 28th November

 

LINGFIELD - NOVEMBER 28

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £21.60 (7 favourites - 2 winners - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Lingfield: 

Leg 1 (1.00): 5 (Its Got Legs) & 1 (Cavernous)

Leg 2 (1.30): 1 (Al Shahir) & 4 (Fairmount)

Leg 3 (2.00): 7 (Sir Hubert), 2 (Becauseshesaidso) & 3 (Point N Shoot)

Leg 4 (2.30): 1 (Alice Pink), 6 (Naranja) & 4 (Miss Adventure)

Leg 5 (3.00): 8 (Allchilledout), 5 (Two Smokin Barrells) & 4 (Chef D’Oeuvre)

Leg 6 (3.30): 8 (Molly Carew), 5 (Corlay) & 2 (Spiritofthegames)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.00: A poor contest to start the meeting on a decidedly ordinary day which would struggle to live up to its name as the ‘Sport of Kings’!  Winners are winners in any class however and the opening event looks to be a potential match between ITS GOT LEGS and CAVERNOUS.  The pair is listed in order of preference simply because of the experience gained by the first named entry. That said, if CAVERNOUS (brother to the very useful Willoughby Court) hacks up by a distance, it would not come as a complete surprise, especially with Ben Pauling having saddled seven of his last nineteen runners to winning effect, stats which have produced 34 points of level stake profit.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 8/15 favourite finished out of the money, the ‘short field’ frame being filled by horses which were returned at 25/1 & 6/1.  The majority of punters gained their revenge twelve months ago however when the 9/4 market leader scored in facile fashion. New readers might like to learn that the term ‘short field’ relates to 5/6/7 runners races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way/Placepot perspectives.

 

1.30: Although this is another extremely average event, it’s worth noting that the three winners to date have hailed from top yards, the most recent of which was Dan Skelton’s stable which is represented today by AL SHAHIR.  Harry’s mount was the 6/4 favourite in a Class 3 event last time out where we can expect far shorter odds for this drop down in grade.  A winner under heavy conditions at Newcastle when winning his only race (of five in total) in a bumper event, AL SHAHIR beat Wig Wam Wiggle by eight lengths on that occasion, with the runner up having scored the other day at Hexham to frank the form.  Martin Keighley’s form at Lingfield is better than most (see current and five year ratios below) whereby FAIRMOUNT might chase the selection home, albeit at a respectable distance.

Favourite factor: The three favourites have snared a gold medal and two of the silver variety thus far alongside Placepot positions.

 

2.00: Richard Rowe’s only runner on the card is SIR HUBERT which makes for interesting reading as Richard has saddled two of the three winners of this event to date, the trainer not having been representative in the other renewal. Offered at 9/1 right across the board in the dead of night as I write this column, it will interesting to see if any money arrives for the seven-year-old Multiplex gelding who goes chasing for the first time this afternoon. BECAUSESHESAIDSO is regarded as the main threat (Charlie Deutsch takes off a useful three pounds), whilst POINT N SHOOT is preferred of the two course winners in the line up.
Favourite factor: Only one favourite (silver medallist) has finished in the money thus far via three renewals.

Record of the course winners in the third race:

1/2—Point N Shoot (heavy)

1/2—Touch Screen (soft)

 

2.30: Five-year-olds have won three of the four renewals to date which suggests that NARANJA should go close, though Gavin Sheehan will be hoping for a better ride aboard Jamie Snowden’s raider than was the case on the beaten 11/8 favourite twelve months ago.  ALICE PINK is the ‘dark horse’ in the race, whilst Phil Middleton can do little wrong in the training ranks at present whereby the chance of MISS ADVENTURE demands respect at a big price.  Money has arrived for Queen Of The Wind overnight which makes for interesting reading given that Colin Tizzard snared a nice 10/1 winner (Mister Malarky) for yours truly at Kempton yesterday.  I’m unsure whether the current 16/1 quote (almost right across the board) will still be in place by the time the offices start receiving calls later this morning.
Favourite factor: Three of the four favourites have secured Placepot positions, stats which include two (5/6 and even money) winners.

 

3.00: ALLCHILLEDOUT was a beaten favourite on the card last year and it looks as though punters with long memories are looking for a return at much bigger odds today as Colin Tizzard’s eight-year-old Alflora gelding has been backed overnight.  TWO SMOKIN BARRELLS has her ground, especially with the chase course reportedly being softer than the hurdle track today.  All three of the Warren Greatrex runners were beaten on the corresponding card last year but with Warren firing in more than his fair share of winners recently, his lone entry (course winner) CHEF D’OEUVRE has to be included in my short list.
Favourite factor: Two of the three market leaders (via just two renewals) have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include one successful 9/4 (joint) favourite.

Record of the course winners in the fifth contest on the card:

2/3—Solstice Star (soft & heavy)

Your first 30 days for just £1

1/1—Chef D’Oeuvre (heavy)

 

3.30:  I think we know that Song Light is going to pop up one of these days but he entered my ‘last chance saloon’ last time out and I have little option but to look elsewhere.  Now could be the time to cash in in accordingly guys!  Dual soft/heavy ground winner MOLLY CAREW demands respect, whilst CORLAY could be anything representing the famous McManus colours.  ARDMAYLE is a very big price considering the conditions, though I guess SPIRITOFTHEGAMES is a more logical option.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 5/4 favourite duly obliged, before last year’s 2/1 market leader found one two good when snaring a Placepot position.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/1—Ardmayle (heavy)

1/1—Molly Carew (heavy)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Lingfield card on Tuesday – followed by this seasons ratios (in brackets) and then five years stats at the course + level stake profits/losses accrued relating to both periods:

4 runners—Laura Mongan (No runners this season) – 0/9 last five years

4—Gary Moore (0/4) – 9/73 – loss of 17 points

4—Neil Mulholland (0/3) – 3/26 +23

3—Martin Keighley (1/1 +14) – 4/9 +14

3—Seamus Mullins (0/1) – 4/33 – loss of 16 points

2—Nick Gifford – (0/1) – 0/7

2—Mark Gillard (1/1 +12) – 1/13 – level profit/loss

2—Chris Gordon (0/1) – 7/32 – loss of four points

2—Paul Henderson (No runners) – 2/11 – loss of 2 points

2—Ben Pauling (No runners) – 1/3 – slight loss

2—Dan Skelton (0/2) – 5/12 +13

2—Roger Teal (No runners in either period)

2—Colin Tizzard (No runners) – 2/10 – loss of 3 points)

+ 25 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

59 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Sedgefield: £63.90 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced

Southwell A/W: Meeting abandoned

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 2nd November

LINGFIELD – NOVEMBER 2

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £112.30 (6 favourites - 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Lingfield: 

Leg 1 (12.15): 7 (Scandaleuse) & 4 (Ghanimah)

Leg 2 (12.45): 1 (Il Primo Sole) & 12 (Statehood)

Leg 3 (1.20): 4 (Promising Run) & 1 (Muffri’Ha)

Leg 4 (1.50): 10 (Bobbie Wheeler), 14 (Easy Tiger) & 4 (Sacred Act)

Leg 5 (2.25): 9 (Cribbs Causeway), 14 (Val De Marne) & 12 (Melodic Motion)

Leg 6 (2.55): 6 (Miss Pacific), 7 (Unit Of Assessment) & 11 (Luxford)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.15: It appears significant that the Sir Michael Stoute team can make its journey back to Newmarket following the first race on the card, with SCANDALEUSE being the only stable representative at Lingfield on Thursday.  Indeed, Michael only has two more runners pencilled in before next Monday whereby the entry here takes on a more positive declaration from my viewpoint.  GHANIMAH looks the obvious threat, with a Placepot position surely there for the taking if the William Haggas trained Invincible Spirit filly can offer the normal amount of improvement (whatever that is) following a decent debut effort at Kempton three weeks ago.

Favourite factor: We are back in the realms of ‘fantasy land’ whereby the powers that be have labelled the first two races on the card as ‘new events’ even though they carry the exact credentials required to contest the races in the past!  Upwards and onward be informing the first two (1/2 & 5/4) favourites found one too good for them when securing Placepot positions thus far, should you decide to stick with my historic facts and figures.  If that should be the case, I’ll round of by parting with the news that last year’s even money market leader failed to reach the frame.

 

12.45: Charlie Appleby’s Kodiac newcomer STATEHOOD also holds an entry next Tuesday but with only IL PRIMO SOLE standing out from the crowd relating to the opposition here, it is little wonder that the Godolphin raider has been offered this event in which to attend school for the first time.  Whether Charlie’s March foal can get on terms with John Gosden’s impressive debut winner is another matter entirely though in receipt of seven pounds from the favourite, there may not be a great deal of daylight between the pair as they cross the line.

Favourite factor: Only three (4/5, 7/4 & 15/8) favourites have won during the last eleven, whilst three 25/1 winners have been record during the last eight contests.

 

1.20: Four-year-olds come to the gig on a five timer and with PROMISING RUN representing Saeed Bin Suroor (last three runners have won), the trend could be extended.  That said, MUFFRI‘HA won this event in facile fashion last year and coming to the party almost on identical terms relating to the official mark and weight, it seems inconceivable that James Doyle’s mount could finish out of the frame.  The 3/3 course record of SIMPLY ME demands attention, even as one of the complete outsiders in the field.

Favourite factor:  Last year’s successful 5/4 market leader (Muffri’Ha) ended a drought which had lasted five years.  That said, the last ten winners have scored at a top price of 7/1, albeit there were a trio of winners returned at price.

Record of course winners in the third race:

1/2—Muffri’Ha

3/3—Simply Me

2/4—Somethingthrilling

 

1.50: This is a really interesting contest with the seven course winners in the field boasting an aggregate strike rate of 27% on the Polytack surface at Lingfield.  Four-year-olds have secured six contests during the last decade with BOBBIE WHEELER hopefully proving to be the best of the trio of vintage representatives on this occasion.  EASY TIGER might prove to be the pick of the relevant course winners, whilst SACRED ACT completes my trio against the field.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won five of the last ten renewals, the top priced winner being returned at just 15/2 during the period.  Six of the last eight favourites have secured Placepot positions.

Record of course winners in the fourth contest on the card:

1/4—Mutawathed

5/19—Alfred Hutchinson

1/3—Miracle Of Medinah

1/5--Baracouda Boy

3/8—Mr Bossy Boots

3/15—Shyron

2/4—Easy Tiger

 

2.25: Three-year-olds lead four-year-olds 6-3 via the last ten renewals, with six junior runners having been declared this time around, the pick of which will hopefully prove to be CRIBBS CAUSEWAY, VAL DE MARNE and MELODIC MOTION.  The middle named French raider will represent Placepot value for money as overseas raiders invariably do whatever their form, rivals and or class of contest.

Favourite factor: Only one of the last five favourites has finished in the frame.  Going back a little further in time however, it’s only fair to report that three of the last eight contests were secured by market leaders.

Record of course winner in the fifth event:

1/1—Cribbs Causeway

 

2.55: Three of the last five contests have been won by three-year-olds, whilst all ten winners during the last decade carried a minimum weight of 9-2.  Six junior raiders have been entered this time around, with your truly siding with the likes of MISS PACIFIC, UNIT OF ASSESSMENT and LUXFORD at the time of writing.  The trio are listed in order of preference, albeit marginally.

Favourite factor: Nine of the last ten renewals have been won by horses sent off at a top price of 8/1 during which time, three (3/1, 15/8 & 13/8) favourites prevailed.  Five of the eleven market leaders have finished in the frame during the last decade.

Record of course winners in the Placepot finale:

2/4—Rum Swizzle

3/27—Shifting Star

1/8—Silver Dixie

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Lingfield card on Thursday alongside their ratios on Lingfield’s A/W track this season + level stake profit/losses accrued:

3 runners—Ralph Beckett (5/20 – loss of 7 points)

3—Patrick Chamings (1/12 – loss of 7 points)

3—David Evans (1/60 – loss of 50 points)

3—John Gosden (4/16 – loss of 1 points)

3—William Haggas (5/11 +4)

3—Sir Mark Prescott (2/14 +1)

3—Marcus Tregoning (3/6 +3)

2—Michael Attwater (7/44 +20)

2—Michael Bell (3/10 +3)

2—Martin Bosley (0/11)

2—Tony Carroll (5/36 – loss of 9 points)

2—Clive Cox (0/9)

2—Ed Dunlop (2/19 – loss of 9 points)

2—Richard Fahey (3/29 – loss of 14 points)

2—Eve Johnson Houghton (0/14)

2—William Knight (2/14 – loss of 9 points)

2—David O’Meara (2/19 – loss of 11 points)

2—Brendan Powell (0/4)

2—Amanda Perrett (4/31 – loss 16 points)

2—John Ryan (1/15 – loss of 2 points)

Your first 30 days for just £1

+54 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

101 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Sedgefield: £138.20 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

Stratford: £72.70 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Chelmsford: £486.40 – 8 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 25th October

NEWMARKET - OCTOBER 25

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £17.90 (6 favourites - 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Newmarket: 

Leg 1 (1.15): 7 (High Seas) & 8 (Lady Al Thumama)

Leg 2 (1.45): 6 (Left Alone) & 5 (La Diva)

Leg 3 (2.20): 5 (Letsme Avenue), 6 (Episcia), 18 (Contribute) & 1 (Move To The Front)

Leg 4 (2.55): 7 (Elwazir), 10 (Key Victory) & 13 (Maypole)

Leg 5 (3.30): 10 (Clearly), 5 (Song Maker) & 11 (Dynamic)

Leg 6 (4.05): 2 (Bow Street), 6 (Talas) & 8 (Wild West Hero)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

*It should be noted that there are no previous course winners on the entire card at Newmarket today – lest you thought I had forgotten to include them in my column!

 

Newmarket (Five year study of this meeting):

37 races – 12 winning favourites – 36/37 winners scored at a top price of 14/1

Average Placepot dividend: £136.80

Highest dividend: £353.60 (2012) - Lowest dividend: £17.90 (2016)

Leading trainer at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

5 winners—John Gosden (9/2, 4/1, 2/1, 8/13* & 2/5*) – 7 runners today:

Wild Impala (1.15), Timpani (1.45), Elsaakb (2.20), Burlington & Stylehunyer (2.55), Clearly (3.30) & Mythological (4.40)

 

1.15: Five of the six Placepot races are juvenile events, as are seven of the eight races on the card.  This makes for interesting racing, though aside from our favourite wager, perhaps any other wagers should be saved for another day though that said, the favourite stats (see below) are particularly impressive following five renewals of this opening event.  The fact that the first four races on the card are contested over the 'specialist seven furlong trip' adds to the intrigue.  Upwards and onward by adding that I am leaving my stats in the mix for this race because although the BHA deem this as a new contest, it is the same Class 5 event for juvenile fillies over seven furlongs as was ever the case, aside from its ‘new novice prefix’.  Twelve runners face the starter in this first division of the opening event, albeit only three entries have been taking seriously on the exchanges at time of writing.  I can only become involved from a Placepot perspective, whereby HIGH SEAS and LADY AL THUMAMA are taken ahead of Wild Impala from a value for money viewpoint.

Favourite factor:  The seven favourites to date have snared four gold medals and two of the bronze variety alongside toteplacepot positions.  The biggest priced winner thus far was returned at just 6/1.

 

1.45:  LEFT ALONE and (to a fashion) LA DIVA are the only horses being backed overnight and it would seem churlish to ignore their claims in a race which should not prove difficult to win, especially by Newmarket standards.

Favourite factor:  This is the second division of the opening event on the Newmarket card whereby the same stats apply, whatever the BHA might suggest. Leave it Mal – leave it!

 

2.20: Horses carrying nine stones or more have secured the four contests at 9/1-8/1-8/1-15/8* to date, statistics which potentially eliminate seven horses in the field.  Last year’s 9/1 winner (Tap Tap Boom) was short listed and hopefully included is this year’s gold medallist, my trio against the remaining 17 runners consisting of LETSBE AVENUE, EPISCIA and CONTRIBUTE.  Martin Meade saddles the latter named raider, with the trainer boasting 2/7 stats here on the Rowley Mile this season, winners which have produced level stake profits of 53 points.  I have included Martin’s representative even though his Bahamian Bounty gelding hails from the ‘inferior’ sector of the handicap. The reserve nomination is awarded to Clive Cox’s hat trick seeker MOVE TO THE FRONT, especially with Clive having ended a (rare) extended run of losers yesterday when celebrating a 9/1 success, a price which is still available with a few firms relating to his Lord Shankill colt.

Favourite factor: Only one of the four favourites (winner at 15/8) has secured a Placepot positions thus far.

 

2.55: I won’t waste your time or mine, suffice to say that this is (supposedly) a new race but as nothing has changed aside for its name, I have left the updated stats in place.  That said, I have to confirm that this is my stance and not necessarily the opinion of ‘geegeez’. Upwards and onward by informing that Roger Varian saddled last year’s winner whereby his newcomer Masaarr will be watched with an eye to the future though from a Placepot perspective at the very least, ELWAZIR and Charlie Appleby’s Teofilo newcomer KEY VICTORY should figure prominently though once again, no money could be prized from my wallet relating to naming the winner of the contest.  That said, Bet365 are arguably too big at 11/1 about John Gosden’s Raven’s Pass debutant STYLEHUNTER, though the declaration of MAYPOLE (eye catching fourth at Goodwood on his first day at school) also suggests that the first named pair might not have things going all their own way in an intriguing event.

Favourite factor: Six of the seven winners have scored at a top price of 5/1, though we had to wait until 2015 for the first successful market leader to be recorded.  Five of the nine favourites have finished in the frame.

 

3.30: Although three-year-olds lead the four-year-old 3-2 from a win perspective to date, the older raiders edge the Placepot stats 8-7.  The only potential four-year-old in the field has been withdrawn whereby I will home in on the nine junior raiders. You will have noted the additional information about this meeting just before the race by race analysis which suggested that John Gosden was the trainer to behold and the popular handler might snare this prize with CLEARLY who looked a highly promising individual before her last effort whereby ‘headgear’ has been added into the equation this time around.  If the ‘aid’ does not work the oracle, SONG MAKER and DYNAMIC are taken as the main potential beneficiaries, the pair being listed in order of preference.

Favourite factor: Only two of the eight market leaders have finished in the frame via five renewals to date.  We still await the first successful favourites, whilst four of the five winners have scored at a top price of 15/2, the event having been secured by a 20/1 chance.

 

4.05: Yet another of the ‘novice’ races, whereby you will know the stance I have adopted against the powers that be! 13 renewals had slipped by the since the previous successful favourite before the 2015 market leader obliged, though the race reverted to type twelve months ago when the favourite was beaten, albeit a Placepot position was secured.  Cracksman won the contest last year though unfortunately, John Gosden does not have a representative this time around.  BOW STREET could monopolise the contest (apologies for that play on words), though newcomers TALAS and WILD WEST HERO are not eliminated from my thoughts as six o’clock strikes up this morning in the east wing of the Boyle estate.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Favourite factor: Market leaders have won seven of the last eighteen renewals whilst 13 of the 19 favourites have finished in the frame.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Newmarket card on Wednesday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

9 runners—Richard Hannon (5/48 – loss of 17 points)

7—John Gosden (11/52 +20)

5—Stuart Williams (0/10)

4—Charlie Appleby (13/33 (+27)

4—Ed Dunlop (0/18)

4—Roger Varian (5/29 +11)

3—Michael Appleby (1/14 – loss of 4 points)

3—Andrew Balding (5/33 – loss of 11 points)

3—Clive Cox (0/7)

3—Harry Dunlop (0/1)

3—Richard Fahey (2/30 – loss of 15 points)

3—William Haggas (3/30 – loss of 11 points)

3—Phil McBride (0/7)

3—Martin Meade (2/7 +53)

2—Robyn Brisland (0/1)

2—Tom Dascombe (2/9 – slight loss)

2—Charlie Fellowes (1/13 +2)

2—Charlie Hills (3/36 – loss of 36 points)

2—Mark Johnston (4/48 – loss of 16 points)

2—William Knight (0/5)

2—Hugo Palmer (1/26 – loss of 5 points)

2—John Ryan (1/11 – level on the year)

2—David Simcock (0/13)

2—Sir Michael Stoute (3/30 – loss of 12 points)

2—Mark Tompkins (No previous runners)

+ 22 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

101 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Sedgefield: The is a new meeting on the racing calendar

Worcester: £284.90 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced

Kempton (A/W): £116.90 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

 

 

 

 

Placepot pointers – Tuesday 3rd October

SEDGEFIELD – OCTOBER 3

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £53.30 (7 favourites - 1 winner - 3 placed - 3 unplaced)

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Sedgefield: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 9 (Daring Knight), 1 (On Alberts Head) & 5 (Mathayus)

Leg 2 (2.30): 3 (Greenworldsolution), 1 (Mr Globetrotter) & 9 (Magnolia Ridge)

Leg 3 (3.05): 3 (Helmsley Lad), 1 (Boy In A Bentley) & 8 (Angel’s Envy)

Leg 4 (3.35): 3 (Western Miller) & 4 (Bordeaux Bill)

Leg 5 (4.10): 4 (Hestina) & 6 (Our Kylie)

Leg 6 (4.40): 5 (Captain Mowbray), 3 (Boss Des Mottes) & 7 (Between The Waters)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.00: Dan Skelton has taken possession of the four-year-old Dick Turpin gelding DARING KNIGHT from Clare Ellam and in a race that should not prove difficult to win, Dan looks to have found the ideal opportunity for his newcomer.  Neil Mulholland is back among the winners whereby the chance of ON ALBERTS HEAD is respected alongside the Placepot option MATHAYUS.

Favourite factor: The opening event is a new race on the Sedgefield card.

Record of course winner in the opening event:

2/7—Ever So Much (2 x good)

 

2.30: Jennie Candlish has secured gold and silver medals with her last two runners and the positive run can continue here with GREENWORLDSOLUTION. Still a maiden following ten assignments to date, I would not back Sean Quinlan’s mount to win the race (or any horse in the field to be honest) but having finished in the frame in three of his last six starts, GREENWORLDSOLUTION looks to be the safest Placepot option, arguably alongside MR GLOBETROTTER and MAGNOLIA RIDGE.

Favourite factor: This is the second division of the opening race.

Record of course winners in the second race:

1/10—Claude Carter (good)

 

3.05: If there is one massive outsider on the card that might outrun her odds today, ANGEL’S ENVY could be the horse, albeit I am clutching at straws to a fashion.  Iain Jardine has (as ever) got his horses running well enough to give any of his runners a secondary glance, especially at this level.  Add the fact that his five year old is ridden by a claimer who has being ‘nibbled at’ on the exchanges at one o’clock in the morning as I pen this column (the horse not the jockey), and we have a minimum stake (each way) option to at least consider.  That said, I grant you that HELMSLEY LAD and BOY IN A BENTLEY are more likely winners though with just nine runners set to face the starter, Rod Chapman’s mount could sneak a place at 100/1 which is still available at the time of writing.

Favourite factor: Last year’s 2/1 market leader was flanked on both sides by 3/1 second favourites when securing a Placepot position in a ‘short field’ contest twelve months ago.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.

Record of course winners in the third contest on the card:

1/1—Boy In A Bentley (good)

1/6—Hemlsley Lad (good to soft)

 

3.35: The stand out (competitive) race on the card by a country mile, this Novice Chase event is the type of contest to warm us up nicely for the two day Cheltenham meeting which is staged on the last weekend of this month.  Owners of the seven runners in this race can only dream of such heady heights but nonetheless, four of the runners will ensure that the race will take plenty of winning from my viewpoint, the leading pair of which are nominated as WESTERN MILLER and BORDEAUX BILL.  The first named Charlie Longsdon raider improved out of all recognition for taking on the bugger obstacles on debut at Stratford, whilst BORDEAUX BILL is an interesting newcomer to the discipline.  The pair should almost finish ‘upsides’ via their last official hurdling figures, given the five pound claimer aboard WESTERN MILLER, notwithstanding his racecourse experience over fences which is a definite ‘edge’ over his rival.  The declarations of Jacks Last Hope and Cobra De Mai suggest this is anything but a two horse race however.

Favourite factor: One of the two 9/4 joint favourites finished in the frame (without winning) in last year’s inaugural contest.

Record of course winners in the fourth race:

1/2—Eyes Of A Tiger (good)

2/2—Bordeaux Bill (good & good to soft)

1/2—Jacks Last Hope (soft)

 

4.10: HESTINA would look something of a Placepot banker if we could ensure that all the declarations is this ‘dead eight’ contest would face the starter but as seems to happen all too often, a non runner would take the race into dangerous waters with just two positions up for grabs.  Plenty of local racegoers would be inclined to offer the same thoughts about OUR KYLIE though either way, we should get safely through to the last leg of our favourite wager by including both horses in the mix.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural (Ian Williams trained) 11/10 market leader duly obliged.

Record of course winners in the fifth contest:

1/1—Our Kylie (good)

Your first 30 days for just £1

 

4.40: Seven of the nine gold medallists carried a minimum burden of 11-1, statistics which led me to securing last year’s 50/1 forecast via three nominations.  Six-year-olds have won five recent renewals whereby I feel duty bound to include the only two horses which possess ticks in both of the trend boxes, namely CAPTAIN MOWBRAY and BOSS DES MOTTES.  I am going for broke by adding the other six-year-old in the line up, given that I am not particularly drawn to anything else in the race, whereby BETWEEN THE WATERS completes my trio against the remaining eleven contenders.  The reserve nomination is awarded to Sendiym given his record at the venue on this type of ground.

Favourite factor: Six of the ten favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include three (9/4-13/8-11/8) winners.

Record of course winners in the Placepot finale:

4/14—Muwallah (2 x good to firm, good & good to soft)

3/6—Perseid (good to firm – good to soft – good)

1/8—Brother Scott (good)

6/17—Sendiym (5 x good & good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Sedgefield card on Tuesday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

5 runners—Brian Ellison (+2)

5—Dan Skelton (5/8 +9)

4—Iain Jardine (No previous runners this season)

3—Maurice Barnes (1/9 +17)

3—Sam England (1/5 – loss of 1 point)

3—Lisa Harrison (1/3 +14)

3—Donald McCain (5/14 +22)

3—Dianne Sayer (1/3 +3)

3—Sue Smith (1/5 – loss of 2 points)

3—Mike Sowersby (0/2)

2—Julia Brooke (0/1)

2—Barbara Butterworth (0/3)

2—Chris Grant (0/9)

2—Ben Haslam (2/6 +8)

2—Charlie Longsdon (No previous runners this season)

2—Neil Mulholland (2/6 – loss of 1 point)

2—Jamie Snowden (0/1)

2—Alistair Whillans (0/1)

+ 22 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

73 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Ayr: Meeting abandoned (those words have a familiar ring to them at Ayr)

Southwell (NH): £164.50 – 6 favourites – 4 winners & 2 unplaced

Kempton: £378.00 – 6 favourites – 2 winners & 4 unplaced

 

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday August 31

MUSSELBURGH - AUGUST 31

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £36.00 (6 favourites - 4 winners - 1 placed - 1 unplaced)

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Musselburgh: 

Leg 1 (1.30): 3 (Debawtry) & 4 (Me Before You)

Leg 2 (2.00): 10 (Ray Purchase), 1 (Burnieboozle) & 4 (Placebo Effect)

Leg 3 (2.30): 1 (Ventura Gold), 6 (Foxy Lady) & 4 (Claramara)

Leg 4 (3.00): 1 (Raselasad), 2 (The Stalking Moon) & 4 (Our Charlie Brown)

Leg 5 (3.30): 3 (Erinyes) & 5 (Bonnie Arlene)

Leg 6 (4.00): 2 (Peach Melba & 3 (Tirania)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.30: Anyone who is contemplating having a bet at Musselburgh today should look at the recent trainer stats down at the foot of the column.  I’m not saying that you should not play but if doing so, keep stakes on the low side until gaining confidence from results.  DEBAWTRY was withdrawn from a race at Carlisle on Tuesday, presumably on account of the yielding ground at the Cumbrian circuit.  The weather forecast looks set fair for the Edinburgh region today whereby David O’Meara’s raider could (perhaps should) go one better after a half decent effort on her first day at school at Beverley two weeks ago.  David’s Camacho filly should not be hard pressed to gain a Placepot position at the very least, with the owners appearing to have most to fear from stable companion ME BEFORE YOU.  Any money (however unlikely) for SITSI might be worth following, albeit to minimum stakes. Bryan Smart enjoyed a fine record with his two-year-olds here at Musselburgh in days of old, his record in Edinburgh with juveniles being unmatched by any trainer at any track both sides of Hadrian’s Wall during a lengthy period of time.

Favourite factor: This is a new race with which to open proceedings.

 

2.00: Although still available in a couple of places (very) early doors this morning, the trade press quote of 8/1 about RAY PURCHASE might be difficult to obtain when things liven up later today, should that be the case on a less than inspiring day of sport.  BURNIEBOOZLE makes some appeal from the top of the handicap I guess, whilst beaten favourite PLACEBO EFFECT cannot be entirely ignored in this grade/company.

Favourite factor: Both favourites have prevailed thus far.

 

2.30:  Although his strike rate is not great at present, Richard Fahey is, at least, saddling winners just now whereby the 10/1 (across the board) quote about VENTURA GOLD is a win and place shout to consider, albeit in limited terms.  FOXY LADY and CLARAMARA are feared most.

Favourite factor: This is the second division of the previous event on the card, whereby the same (brief) details apply.

Record of the course winner in the third race:

1/6—Kikini Bamalaam (good to firm)

 

3.00: A non-runner would put this event into a serious (win only) state of affairs and from a Placepot perspective, any prayers should be offered up immediately though that said of course, a decent dividend would surely be in the offing if we have to name the winner later today.  You have an edge over yours truly obviously, with the rest of the morning to see how the race develops from a market viewpoint though at present, I am favouring RASELASAD, THE STALKING MOON and OUR CHARLIE BROWN though without a great deal of conviction.

Favourite factor: This is another new event on the Musselburgh card but judged on the lack of interest from trainers, there might be another new contest twelve months hence.

Record of the course winners in the fourth contest on the card:

1/2—The Stalking Moon (soft)

2/2—Our Charlie Brown (2 x good to firm)

 

3.30: Archie Watson has won with three of the last four runners he has saddled whereby the chance of ERINYES is greatly respected.  Having contested a Listed event at ‘headquarters’ last time out, this race should be there for the taking on her handicap debut, though cheek-pieces rarely (if ever) inspire confidence from my perspective.  Paddy Power stand alone at 4/1 about the chance of BONNIE ARLENE which looks something of a brave call given the Sandown victory on her penultimate start.  That said, I guess the firm is looking at a disappointing effort the last day.

Favourite factor: The third new race on the card.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Record of the course winners in the fifth event:

1/4—Lively Fella (good)

2/8—Wor Lass (good & good to firm)

 

4.00: Stan James and Bet365 are swerving PEACH MELBA at the time of writing, only offering the projected market leader at even money when 6/5 is available on a few boards elsewhere.  The differential might not seem worth noting, though the difference in percentage terms equates to a horse drifting to from 4/1 to 6/1.  Mark Johnston’s Dream Ahead filly encounters fast ground here looking for a four-timer, whereby I’ve a feeling that the afore-mentioned companies will have to be a little braver to get the favourite into their books as the day pans out.  TIRANIA would appear to be the danger on all known form, especially with William Haggas boasting a 42% strike rate in Edinbrugh these last five years (via eight winners), albeit his two raiders this term have returned home having been beaten.

Favourite factor: Only one of the three favourites has snared a Placepot position thus far, achieving that record when winning at odds of 13/8 two years ago.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Musselburgh card on Thursday – followed by their recent stats + profits/losses accrued:

9 runners—Keith Dalgleish (2/25 - since August 25)

5—Tim Easterby (1/13 - last 2 days)

4—Richard Fahey (4/22 - last 3 days)

4—Mark Johnston (1/21 - last 4 days)

3—Jim Goldie (2/16 – since August 24)

3—Richard Guest (last 19 runners beaten)

3—David O’Meara (6/32 – since August 26)

3—John Quinn (4/14 – since August 25)

3—Kevin Ryan (2/18 – since August 25)

2—Tony Coyle (2/53 during July & August)

2—Ann Duffield (1/10 – since August 23)

2—Dianne Sayer (0/19 this month)

2—Tracy Waggott (1/29 this month)

2—Noel Wilson (2/5 – last 2 days)

+ 15 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

62 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Bath: £73.10 – 9 favourites – 4 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

Sedgefield: £68.60 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Chelmsford: £50.20 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

Wolverhampton: £100.20 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday May 16

BEVERLEY – MAY 16

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £27.20 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Beverley: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 10 (Spoof) & 11 (The Right Choice)

Leg 2 (2.30): 1 (Mt Strutter) & 8 (Whigwham)

Leg 3 (3.00): 12 (Socalites Red), 2 (Bond Bombshell) & 4 (Oriental Splendour)

Leg 4 (3.30): 7 (Gerry The Glover), 6 (Sovereign Bounty) & 3 (Jacbequick)

Leg 5 (4.00): 6 (True Romance), 3 (Miss Bates) & 4 (Ode To Glory)

Leg 6 (4.30): 2 (Rooster The Booster), 4 (Copper Baked) & 5 (The Raven Master)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.00: I hope some of you were on my 33/1 winner Englishman at Windsor last night!  Charlie Hills followed up a Chester winner last week with another gold medallist a few days later and his Poet’s Voice colt SPOOF is the obvious place to start following two half decent efforts to date.  THE RIGHT CHOICE appears to be the principle Richard Fahey raider via his two declarations with Paul Hanagan doing the steering.  Richard leads the way at Beverley this season, boasting a 4/17 ratio at the track, with winners recorded at 6/1, 4/1, 4/1 & 6/4* thus far.  Tom Dascombe could celebrate his fourth juvenile winner of the season as PORCHY PARTY ran well enough over course and distance at the first time of asking to suggest that there could be small race victory on the horizon en route to better things.

Favourite factor: This was a new race on the Beverley card last year, 'new' in the sense that races changing from maidens to novice status are deemed to be inaugural events by the BHA. Fortunately for the majority of punters, the 7/4 market leader duly obliged.

 

2.30: John Quinn’s runners are regularly reaching the frame with the odd winner posted here and there, including one at the big Chester meeting last week. MR STRUTTER scored in half decent fashion at Thirsk the last day and a repeat of that showing would probably be good enough to land this weak event.  In receipt of ten pounds, WHIGWHAM should offer most resistance at the business end of the contest.

Favourite factor: Six of the twelve favourites have secured toteplacepot positions via nine renewals to date, statistics which include two winners which were both returned at 15/8.

 

3.00: 35/40 toteplacepot positions have been secured by horses carrying 9-4 or less and I would not put anyone off a small punt on SOCIALITES RED (one of six runners that qualify via the weight stats) in another race on the card which fails to set the pulse racing.  Scott Dixon has greeted three of his last eleven runners in the area reserved for winners (27 points of level stake profit during the period), with Scott’s representative having been one of the relevant gold medallists at Nottingham last week.  A six pound penalty for that success is negated by a seven pound claimer who was in the plate at Colwick Park.  BOND BOMBSHELL has recorded three course and distance victories under fast conditions and providing the wet stuff is not in evidence, David O’Meara’s raider can go close, the trainer having only saddled more turf winners at Ripon that he has managed here at Beverley during the course of the last five years.  David’s 38 winners have produced level stake profit of over 30 points for good measure.  ORIENTAL SPLENDOUR is my idea of the speculative option in the contest with Ruth Carr continuing to send out winners in what could well be a record year for the trainer.  Ruth’s 14 winners this season have produced ten points of LSP.

Favourite factor: Seven of the sixteen favourites have finished in the frame to date (one winner) via 13 renewals.

Beverley record of course winners in the third event on the card:

3/7—Bond Bombshell (3 x good to firm)

1/3—Jack Luey (soft)

2/10—Thatcherite (2 x good)

1/17—Tinsill (good)

 

3.30: Nine of the ten winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-5, whilst five-year-olds have won four of the last nine contests, with vintage representatives coming to the gig on a hat trick this time around. GERRY THE GLOVER and SOVEREIGN BOUNTY are the two entries with ticks in both of the trend boxes, with course specialist JACBEQUICK added into the Placepot mix.  ‘Jac’ has gained all five successes to date at this venue.

Favourite factor: Eight of the eleven favourites have finished in the frame, statistics which include four winners.

Beverley record of course winners in the fourth contest:

2/4—Rousayan (2 x good)

5/17—Jacbequick (3 x good to firm – good – heavy)

2/4—Sovereign Bounty (good & good to firm)

1/2—Gerry The Glover (good)

Your first 30 days for just £1

 

4.00: Nine of the last eleven winners have carried a minimum burden of 8-13, statistics which eliminates the bottom four (of ten) horses on this occasion. The pick of the remaining six suspects will hopefully prove to be the speculative trio of TRUE ROMANCE, MISS BATES and ODE TO GLORY.

Favourite factor: Eight of the last fourteen market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science), statistics which include five winners.

 

4.30: Given that this is the second heat of the previous event, the three horses from the ‘superior’ sector of the handicap to home in on appear to be ROOSTER THE BOOSTER, COPPER BAKED and THE RAVEN MASTER.  This trio look certain to land the dividend between them for us, if we are ‘live’ going into the finale.

Favourite factor: Thus is the second division of the previous event on the card whereby the same stats apply.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Beverley card on Tuesday – followed by their ratios at the track following three meetings + profits/losses accrued:

6 runners—Richard Fahey (4/17 – Profit of 2 points)

6—Mark Johnston (2/14 – loss of 8 points)

5—Tim Easterby (0/14)

5—David O’Meara (2/16 – loss of 2 points)

4—Brian Ellison (0/2)

3—Karl Burke (2/6 – Profit of 2 points)

3—Kevin Ryan (2/9 – Profit of 6 points)

3—John Wainwright (0/2)

2—James Bethell (0/1)

2—John Butler (No runners)

2—Declan Carroll (0/3)

2—Roger Fell (0/4)

2—Ollie Pears (0/1)

2—John Quinn (0/2)

2—Nigel Tinkler (0/8)

+ 35 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

84 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Chepstow: £2.466.00 – 6 favourites – 2 winners & 4 unplaced

Sedgefield: £26.70 – 6 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced

Southwell (NH): £74.30 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Warwick: This is a new replacement meeting for Wincanton

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday May 4

REDCAR – MAY 4

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £57.10 (6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced)

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Redcar: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 4 (Our Little Pony) & 6 (Popsi)

Leg 2 (2.30): 2 (Classical Times) & 1 (Bella Alissa)

Leg 3 (3.00): 7 (Wonder Of Dubai) & 3 (Grinty)

Leg 4 (3.30): 2 (Manatee Bay), 1 (Capolavoro) & 6 (Nonno Giulio)

Leg 5 (4.00): 3 (Teodoro), 2 (Katebird) & 4 (Medalla De Oro)

Leg 6 (4.30): 6 (Gilgamesh), 1 (Fieldsman) & 4 (Shamaheart)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.00: Richard Fahey has saddled winners in both of the renewals in which the stable has been represented to date whereby his newcomer OUR LITTLE PONY will be attempting to emulate last year’s winning debutante from the yard.  Richard has already saddled four winners at the track this season, whilst one his two previous juvenile runners this term scored at Redcar. POPSI has run well in France on two occasions but with connections already pitching her in at this selling level, Franny Norton’s mount has obviously not convinced connections that she has that much of a future, though cheek-pieces might aid and abet her chance in this weak grade.

Favourite factor:

Two of the three favourites have secured Placepot positions by winning their respective events at odds of 8/11 and 4/6, though detectives are still combing the area looking for the inaugural unplaced 11/8 market leader.

Five year record of represented trainers with their juveniles at Redcar:

Ollie Pears (Placebo Effect) – 0/10

David Evans (Tie Em Up Tel & Paulamey) – 1/9

Keith Dalgleish (Glen Valley) – 0/21

Richard Fahey (Our Little Pony) – 17/98

No juvenile runners for Jo Hughes (Popsi) during the study period

Karl Burke (Society’s Dream) – 2/28

 

2.30: Three-year-olds have won eleven of the last twelve renewals.  The three-year-old winners included one at 40/1 whilst a 100/1 chance prevented the junior raiders from securing a 'clean sweep' back in 2005.  Peter Chapple-Hyam’s lone winner this year came in the three-year-old sector here at Redcar and in CLASSICAL TIMES, Peter has a cast iron opportunity to double his tally. The even money quote in the trade press looks fanciful in the extreme, whereby short priced investors might be fortunate to obtain 8/13 this morning I’ll wager.  If odds are not ‘your bag’, it’s worth noting that the differential between taking 8/13 compared to even money, is the same as an 8/1 chance having been backed into 10/3.  For the record, Peter’s ex inmate BELLA ALISSA is named as the main threat to the selection.

Favourite factor: Successful favourites had been conspicuous only by their absence during the 10 year study period immediately before the last two market leaders obliged. Six market leaders have finished in the frame during the study period.  Three odds on market leaders have been turned over including the 1/3 favourite which I did not mention in dispatches three years ago.  That said, eight of the last gold medallists were returned at a top price of 11/2.

 

3.00: Three of Michael Bell’s last ten runners have scored, two of which of which were three-year-olds whereby vintage representative WONDER OF DUBAI is the first name on the team sheet.  Relatively high on numbers, this field remains short on class, with GRINTY being the only feasible alternative option.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 7/4 favourite was beaten by the minimum margin when securing a Placepot position before last year’s 2/1 market leader finished out of the ‘short field’ frame.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home ‘qualify’ from each way and Placepot perspectives.

 

3.30: Of the three course winners in the field (see details below), MANATEE BAY is the only horse that is likely to really appreciate this fast ground whereby Noel Wilson’s seven-year-old is given the nod over the likes of CAPOLAVORO and NONNO GIULIO  in another race on the card which should not prove difficult to win.  Only a head stopped Robert Cowell from securing a 145/1 treble yesterday via just four runners and it would come as no surprise to see CAPOLAVORO maintaining the good form of the yard. It’s hardly surprising that this is the only Redcar meeting during the entire season that I cover, with the sport at this venue failing to light my ‘blue touch paper’ year on year.

Favourite factor: Nine of the eleven winners during the last twelve years have been returned at a top price of 4/1, statistics which include six successful favourites.  Nine market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science) during the study period.

Redcar record of course winners in the fourth race:

1/4—Manatee Bay (good to firm)

2/5—Nonno Giulio (good & good to soft)

1/6—Cabal (soft)

 

Your first 30 days for just £1

4.00: The last eight winners have carried a minimum weight of 9-1 and my short listed trio all hail from the relevant sector of this three-year-old handicap, with five of the eleven runners qualifying on this occasion taking jockey claims into account.  TEODORO represents Tom Dascombe who has saddled three of his last eight winners to wining effect, whilst KATEBIRD and MEDALLA DE ORO complete the threesome against the other eight contenders.

Favourite factor: Six of the nine favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include four of the last eight winners (13/8-6/4-11/8-10/3).

 

4.30: Four of the last five gold medallists have carried a minimum weight of 9-2 as have thirteen of the last fifteen horses to have claimed toteplacepot positions whereby the bottom two horses in the handicap are eliminated from my thoughts.  That still leaves seven runners to assess, the pick of which should prove to be GILGAMESH and FIELDSMAN.  That said, this morning’s 16/1 quote about dual course winner SHANAHEART makes some appeal, given that both of the relevant victories were gained under today’s (fast) conditions.

Favourite factor: Five of the seven market leaders have finished in the frame, statistics which include three (5/2-9/4-1/2) gold medallists.

Redcar record of course winners in the Placepot finale:

2/10—Shamaheart (2 x good to firm)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Redcar card on Thursday – followed by their ratios at the track this season via two meetings + profits/losses accrued:

6 runners—Tim Easterby (0/9)

4—David O’Meara (0/4)

3—Karl Burke (0/3)

3—Michael Dods (0/3)

3—David Evans (No runners)

3—Richard Fahey (4/11 – Profit of 20 points)

3—Tracy Waggot (0/4)

2—David Barron (0/4)

2—Peter Chapple-Hyam (1/2 – Slight Profit)

2—Robert Cowell (No runners)

2—Keith Dalgleish (1/4 – slight loss)

2—Tom Dascombe (0/2)

2—Roger Fell (0/2)

2—Geoff Harker (1/3 – Profit of 2 points)

2—Charlie Hills (No runners)

2—Jo Hughes (No runners)

2—Mark Johnston (0/2)

2—Nigel Tinkler (0/1)

+ 21 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

68 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Musselburgh: £25.30 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced

Lingfield (A/W): £37.90 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced

Sedgefield: £115.90 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

The meeting at Towcester was abandoned

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday April 19

NEWMARKET – APRIL 19

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £12.70 (7 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Newmarket: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 5 (Reputation), 7 (Mont Kiara) & 8 (Gunmetal)

Leg 2 (2.25): 1 (Seven Heavens), 7 (Majeste) & 4 (Rodaini)

Leg 3 (3.00): 5 (Folkeswood), 1 (Abdon) & 2 (Autocratic)

Leg 4 (3.35): 3 (Daban), 6 (Pamplemousse) & 9 (Sea Of Grace)

Leg 5 (4.10): 6 (On A Roll), 7 (Queen Of Kalahari) & 5 (Noble Manners)

Leg 6 (4.45): 5 (Glittering Jewel) & 12 (Tranquil Star)

Suggested stake: 486 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.50: We enjoyed a wonderful opening day to Newmarket’s (Rowley Mile) season with plenty of winners and 24 units of the Placepot secured.  I followed those results by informing my Twitter readers that John Quinn has won with two of his first three runners at the track last season and sure enough, followers were on at 12/1 before El Astronaut prevailed.  John saddles his only runner on today’s card in this opening event, namely REPUTATION who is (accordingly) listed as the first name on my team sheet.  Connections might have most to fear from MONT KIARA and GUNMETAL.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 3/1 favourite could only finish tenth in a twelve strong field.

Record of the course winner in the opening event:

1/4—Toofi (good)

 

2.25: The European Free Handicap always brings to mind the excellence of Pat Eddery who won this race five times during the course of an eight year period for five different trainers between 1989 and 1996! Pat equalled Lester Piggott’s haul of eleven championship titles, having won this race eight times during his career. Upwards and onward to the present, reporting that the two least exposed horses in the field make most appeal for this renewal, namely SEVEN HEAVENS and MAJESTE.  Simon Crisford has his team in good order (three of his last five inmates have won) whereby RODAINI is added into the Placepot equation.

Favourite factor: Six of the last twelve favourites have prevailed, whilst 12 of the last 20 market leaders have snared toteplacepot positions, statistics which include seven winners.  All 19 winners during the study period were returned at odds of 9/1 or less.

 

3.00: Four-year-olds have claimed sixteen of the last twenty nine renewals, whilst securing half (24/48) of the latest available toteplacepot positions. FOLKESWOOD makes most appeal from the relevant six entries, though Sir Michael Stoute’s pair demand plenty of respect, namely ABDON and AUTOCRATIC.

Favourite factor: 15 of the 21 market leaders have reached the frame (four winners) during the study period in the ‘Earl Of Sefton’ event.

Record of course winners in the third contest on the card:

2/2—Berkshire (good to form & soft)

1/1—Folkeswood (goof to firm)

1/1—Spark Plug (good to firm)

1/3—Steel Of Madrid (good to firm)

 

3.35: John Gosden is the only represented trainer to have saddled three winners of this event during the last thirteen years and John makes a habit of saddling consistent winners at this time of the season year on year (seven gold medallists back in 2014 alongside three winners two years ago at the two day Newbury meeting which starts of Friday – abandoned last year). With two winners already secured at the meeting, stable representative DABAN makes some appeal at 12/1, albeit it could be argued that Andre Fabre’s French raider PAMPLEMOUSSE is a likelier winner.  Another option to consider is SEA OF GRACE.

Favourite factor: Seven favourites have won this (Nell Gwyn) trial for the 1,000 Guineas in recent times, whilst twelve market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions during the nineteen year study period

Record of course winners in the ‘Nell Gwyn’:

Your first 30 days for just £1

1/1—Brave Anna (good to firm)

1/1—Kilmah (good to firm)

1/1—Poet’s Vanity (good to firm)

 

4.10'Team Hannon' have secured three of the last seven renewals and the trainer has offered the green light to ON A ROLL, the outsider of the field at the time of writing.  QUEEN OF KALAHARI and NOBLE MANNERS are listed as the main dangers.  This trio should get us safely through to the last leg of our favourite wager if we were ‘live’ going in to the Placepot finale.

Favourite factor: Six favourites have won during the last twenty years, whilst eleven market leaders snared toteplacepot positions.  The biggest priced winner during the previous fourteen years was an 11/1 chance (2011) before last year’s 33/1 gold medallist prevailed.

 

4.45: GLITTERING JEWEL represents Charlie Appleby who was denied a 3/3 ratio at ‘headquarters’ by just a short head on the opening day of the season yesterday.  There seems no obvious reason to desert the yard here in what might otherwise have been a teaser of a Placepot finale.  The relevant damn is Bedazzle (granddaughter of Northern Dancer) who has serious winners in the US to her name.  TRANQUIL STAR might offer most resistance at the business end of proceedings.

Favourite factor: Three of the last five favourites secured Placepot positions by winning their respective events.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Newmarket card on Wednesday – followed by their record at the track yesterday + profit/losses on the day:

6 runners—Richard Hannon (0/2)

5—Charlie Appleby (2/3 – Profit of 9 points)

5—John Gosden (2/6 – Profit of 7 points)

4—Sir Michael Stoute (0/1)

4—James Tate (0/1)

3—Andrew Balding (1/4 – Profit of 4 points)

3—Simon Crisford (---)

3—Charlie Hills (0/5)

3—Mark Johnston (0/1)

3—Aidan O’Brien (---)

2—Charlie Fellowes (0/1)

2—Hugo Palmer (0/1)

+ 25 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

68 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Beverley: £227.00 – 10 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 5 unplaced

Cheltenham: £216.70 – 6 favourtes – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced

Sedgefield: £6,275.70 – 6 favourites – 1 winner & 5 unplaced

There was no meeting at Wolverhampton last year

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday April 7

AINTREE – APRIL 7

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £9,946.90 (8 favourites – No winners – 3 placed – 5 unplaced)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Aintree: 

Leg 1 (1.40): 21 (Sky Khan), 16 (Dream Berry) & 1 (North Hill Harvey)

Leg 2 (2.20): 6 (Mount Mews), 8 (River Wylde) & 3 (Chti Balko)

Leg 3 (2.50): 3 (Might Bite) & 5 (Whisper)

Leg 4 (3.25): 6 (Sub Lieutenant), 2 (God’s Own) & 3 (Jossess Hill)

Leg 5 (4.05): 15 (Henryville), 20 (Seefood), 19 (Go Conquer) & 11 (Gold Present)

Leg 6 (4.40): 11 (The Worlds End) & 3 (Constantine Hill)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.40: Six-year-olds have won six of the last ten renewals, with vintage representatives at around 7/4 to extend the trend via the declarations before the form book is consulted.  DREAM BERRY, NORTH HILL HARVEY and RATHER BE are considered as the pick of the relevant entries this time around.  That said, SKY KHAN looks to have been presented with a definite chance here, having finished fourth in the race twelve months ago when carrying an additional eight pounds.  Lucinda Russell’s representative boasts definite claims off 10-10 from my viewpoint, whilst Hawk High ran well enough at Cheltenham to suggest that he can become competitive three weeks on.

Favourite factor: 12 of the last 15 winners were sent off at odds ranging between 10/1 and 50/1 with successful favourites only conspicuous by their absence.  The previous nine favourites had finished out with the washing before the 15/2 market leader secured the bronze medal in 2013.  The race reverted to type in 2014 when the 4/1 market leader finished back in 14th place when 19 completed the course.  Two of the subsequent four favourites (via two renewals) secured Placepot positions without winning their respective events.

Aintree record of course winners in the opening contest:

2/3—Hawk High (2 x good)

1/1—Geordie Des Champs (good to soft)

2/6—Clondaw Kaempfer (good to soft & soft)

 

2.20: Five-year-olds have a fantastic record in this race (the vintage have claimed 19 of the last 32 renewals--representatives finished 1-2-3-4 seven years ago and 1-2-3-4-5 in 2010 + the forecast positions five years back.  Vintage representatives filled the first seven positions twelve months ago, albeit via 82% of the total number of runners. To make the figures stand out further still, it should be noted that vintage representatives in 2013 were conspicuous only by their absence. Three five-year-olds line up on this occasion, with 14/1 chance CHTI BALKO boasting each way claims.  That said, I appreciate that more logical winners in the field include MOUNT MEWS and RIVER WYLDE.

Favourite factor: Four favourites have won this event via the last 17 renewals, with seven of the last eight market leaders having secured toteplacepot positions.

 

2.50: Seven-year-olds have won nine of the last nineteen renewals of this event, yet vintage representatives are only conspicuous by their absence this time around.  MIGHT BITE and WHISPER seemingly offer Nicky Henderson a stranglehold in this event, with the Friday of the meeting having been kind to the trainer down the years.  Nicky has saddled no less than twelve winners on the corresponding day of the meeting during the last six years!

Favourite factor: Going back a long time, 14 of the last 27 renewals (52%) have been won by market leaders, whilst 26 of those gold medallists were returned in single figures.  Seven of the last fourteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions.

Aintree record of course winners in the third event:

2/3—Virgilio (good & good to soft)

2/2—Whisper (good & good to soft)

 

3.25: The last eleven winners have been aged between seven and nine and the trend will be extended on this occasion as all nine runners qualify via the vintage trends.  For those who keep records, this stat is still worth its weight in gold because with just two qualifiers last year, 10/1 winner GOD’S OWN scored even though the 1/5 market leader (Vatour) fell when going well when trying to extend the ratio.  SUB LIEUTENANT and JOSSES HILL are added to the mix this time around.

Favourite factor: The first successful winning favourite of this event was Remittance Man for Nicky Henderson at odds of 4/9 back in 1992.  A further ten market leaders have won, whilst eight of the fourteen market leaders during the last twelve years have claimed toteplacepot positions.

Aintree record of course winners in the fourth race:

1/3—God’s Own (good to soft)

1/2—Josses Hill (good to soft)

1/3—Royal Regatta (good)

1/3—Uxizandre (good)

 

4.05: 13 of the last 16 winners of this event (run over the Grand National fences) have carried weights of 10-12 or less, whilst ten of the last fourteen winners scored at 50/1-33/1-25/1-22/1-22/1-16/1-14/1-14/1-11/1-10/1.  Nine and ten-year-olds have won eight of the last fifteen renewals whilst securing 33 of the 60 (55%) available toteplacepot positions between them.  Only two Irish trained winner have emerged in the last 37 years.  Putting the stats and facts together produces an overnight ‘short list’ of HENRYVILLE, SEEFOOD, GO CONQUER and GOLD PRESENT, especially when digesting the fact that Nicky Henderson (saddles the latter named raider) has saddled three of the last four winners.

Favourite factor: Just one (joint) favourite has won the ‘Topham’ via the last eighteen contests.  Only four of the sixteen favourites during the last thirteen years have claimed toteplacepot positions.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Aintree record over the Grand National fences of course winner in the fifth race (there are five other winners at Aintree included in the field but those gold medallists scored over the Mildmay course):

1/3—Eastlake (soft)

 

4.40: Six-year-olds hold the call in the toteplacepot finale (winners of six of the last nine contests) and vintage representatives secured the first four places seven years back and silver and bronze medals five years ago.   Throw the 2013 1-2-3-4 result and last year’s 1-2-3 via vintage representatives and you can probably guess why my overnight trio against the other nine contenders consists of THE WORLDS END, CONSTANTINE BAY and DEBECE, especially as another great result (1-3-4) ensued three years ago.  Keeper Hill receives the reserve nomination.

Favourite factor: Six renewals had slipped by since a favourite prevailed before the 2013 market leader fought back on behalf of punters.  The last three favourites have been beaten, whilst eight of the thirteen favourites have finished in the frame (exact science) in as many years.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Aintree card on Friday – followed by their winners at the track this season:

11 runners—Nicky Henderson (1 winner at 4/9*)

7—Colin Tizzard (1 winner at 5/1)

5—Tom George (4 winners at 33/1, 7/1, 7/2 & Evens*)

5—Nigel Twiston-Davies (2 winners at 9/1 & 5/1)

4—Harry Fry (2 winners at 9/1 & 4/1)

4—Donald McCain

4—Paul Nicholls (4 winners at 5/1, 4/1*, 3/1 & 7/4**)

4—Jonjo O’Neill (1 winner at 15/2)

3—Rebecca Curtis (1 winner at 6/4*)

3—Noel Meade

3—Gary Moore

3—Dan Skelton (1 winner at 5/2)

2—Henry De Bromhead

2—Warren Greatrex (1 winner at 4/1)

2—Philip Hobbs (1 winner at 4/11*)

2—Alan King (1 winner at 4/1*)

2—Kerry Lee

2—Charlie Longsdon

2—Charlie Mann

2—Ben Pauling (1 winner at 9/2)

2—David Pipe (8/1 & 13/8*)

2—Lucinda Russell

2—Tim Vaughan (1 winner at 20/1)

2—Ian Williams

+ 27 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

107 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividend from last year:

Leicester: £112.60 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday March 14

CHELTENHAM – MARCH 14

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £38.90 (6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Cheltenham: 

Leg 1 (1.30): 12 (Melon), 14 (River Wylde) & 9 (High Bridge)

Leg 2 (2.10): 2 (Altior) & 3 (Charbel)

Leg 3 (2.50): 18 (Singlefarmpayment), 10 (Junction Fourteen), 9 (Holywell) & 1 (Un Temps Por Tout)

Leg 4 (3.30): 12 (Yanworth) & 6 (Moon Racer)

Leg 5 (4.10): 10 (Limini) & 18 (Vroum Vroum Mag)

Leg 6 (4.50): 1 (A Genie In Abottle), 10 (Edwulf), 3 (Arpege D’Alene) & 5 (Bells N Banjos)

Suggested stake: 384 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.30: Two things to say before I light the blue touch paper.  Firstly with four different courses to race on, the relevant course winners listed under each race have not been identified as C/D winners at Cheltenham this week because of the different 'routes' relating to so many horses and events.  Secondly, the ground has dried up sufficiently for those damned bookmakers to go into the week with an edge, after so many prep races have been contested on bad ground.  Upwards and onward by revealing that five and six-year-olds have won 13 of the last 14 renewals of this opening event between them, securing 38/42 each way/toteplacepot positions during the study period.  MELON is the latest ‘talking horse’ from the Willie Mullins yard in the opening race of the week and whilst it seems that I am conditioned to include the Irish raider in my Placepot mix, RIVER WYLDE and HIGH BRIDGE are ‘preferred’ from a value for money perspective.  Willie and Nicky Henderson (RIVER WYLDE and Beyond conceit) lead the way during the last decade with two winners apiece in this event which is as close as you can get to a ‘cavalry charge’ over a two mile trip!

Favourite factor: Fate of recent favourites: 24 market leaders—5 winners—8 placed—11 unplaced. First three in the betting: 68 runners--12 winners--20 placed--36 unplaced.

Cheltenham record of course winners in the 'Supreme Novices':

2/3—Ballyandy (good & good to soft)

1/2—Pingshou (good)

 

2.10: The way that runners fall by the wayside through injury etc., makes it a crying shame from my viewpoint that we have been denied a dual between ALTIOR and Douvan in Wednesday’s Champion Chase, though naturally (and rightly), owners have the last word, however bullish trainers might be one way or the other.  With Nicky Henderson of course, we know that he thinks first and foremost of the welfare of the horses in his care whereby his might have been the final decision and if so, it’s hardly surprising that he wants his connections to win very decent price money without taking too many risks at this stage of Altior’s career.  Back on the racing front, CHARBEL is fancied to follow the favourite home (as he did recently at Sandown), albeit at a respectable distance.

Favourite factor: Fate of recent favourites: 22 market leaders—6 winners—6 placed—10 unplaced. First three in the betting: 67 runners--13 winners--18 placed--36 unplaced.

Cheltenham record of course winners in the 'Arkle':

1/3—A Hare Breath (good)

2/2—Altior (2 x good to soft)

 

2.50: Fourteen of the last eighteen winners carried a maximum burden of 10-12 whereby the victory of UN TEMPS PUR TOUT twelve months ago off 11-7 is all the more impressive.  David Pipe has offered the green light again, albeit an additional five pounds will be carried this time around.  HOLYWELL is twelve pounds better off for the relevant seven length defeat in the race last year when Jonjo’s raider finished second, finishing well clear of the remainder of the field.  There should not be a great deal of daylight between the pair again and yes, there is a chance that they could dominate proceedings.  Whether that will be possible with the concession of weight SINGLEFARMPAYMENT is another matter altogether.  Others for consideration include NOBLE ENDEAVOUR and Emma Lavelle’s overpriced raider JUNCTION FOURTEEN.

Favourite factor: Fate of recent favourites: 26 market leaders—1 winner—11 placed—14 unplaced. First three in the betting: 68 runners--9 winners--18 places--41 unplaced.

Cheltenham record of course winners in the Handicap Chase:

1/6—Un Temps Pour Tout (good to soft)

1/7—Theatre Guide (good)

1/1—Vincente De Noyer (good to soft)

3/11—Annacotty (good to soft – soft – heavy)

1/5—The Young Master (good)

2/4—Holywell (2 x good to soft)

1/6—The Druid’s Nephew (good to soft)

1/3—Ibis Du Rheu (good)

1/9—Buywise (good)

1/1—Coologue (good)

1/7—Caid Du Berlais (soft)

2/3—Singlefarmpayment (good & heavy)

1/6—A Good Skin (good)

 

3.30: With so much positive talk hailing from the Yanworth camp, punters who took around 3/1 for Alan King’s raider recently can feel pleased with themselves as if the hype continues into Tuesday, as there is a chance that the seven-year-old could be sent off as short at 15/8 in my book.  Certainly, I believe that if YANWORTH is to become the new champion, his price will be veering that way rather than towards the 11/4 mark which the trade press has opted for at the time of writing.  Either way, YANWORTH looks sure to figure prominently, though the 3/3 ratio offered by MOON RACER at Cheltenham suggest that the David Pipe team are right to ‘go for broke’ as opposed to taking easier options at the Festival.  THE NEW ONE will struggle to win for well documented reasons, though his 16/1 quote in a place makes for interesting each way reading for those that want a genuine run for their money on an outsider.  The ground looks like being too lively for Buveur D’Air, whereby Brain Power could contest minor honours with The New One.

Favourite factor: Fate of recent favourites: 23 market leaders—9 winners—6 placed—8 unplaced. First three in the betting: 66 runners--10 winners--24 placed--32 unplaced.

Cheltenham record of course winners in the 'Champion Hurdle':

3/3—Moon Racer (good – good to soft – soft)

2/3—Sceau Royal (good & soft)

6/11—The New One (4 x good to soft – good – soft)

1/2—Wicklow Brave (soft)

1/3—Yanworth (heavy)

 

Your first 30 days for just £1

4.10: Plenty of respect has to be paid to the Gordon Elliott raider Apple’s Jade but with Willie Mullins having won eight of the nine renewals of this event for mares, the chances for LIMINI and VROUM VROUM MAG are there for all to see.  I guess that Willie might be a little miffed that the pair have to clash at this stage but as long as he lands the forecast between the pair, the trainer will be happy enough.  Lifeboat Mona is the ‘optimistic’ hope that runners this side of the Irish Sea might be able to swag some prize money, though I wouldn’t bank on it.  I’ll let you decide between the Irish trio, swerving any possible blame, a stance which seems to be in evidence so much in our country (the world over) these days!

Favourite factor: The nine favourites have snared six golds and one bronze medal to date, impressive stats that would have looked even better but for the fall at the last flight of Annie Power two years ago with the race at her mercy.

Cheltenham record of course winners in the 'Mares Hurdle':

1/6—Briery Queen (soft)

1/1—Indian Stream (good)

1/1—Limini (good)

1/4—Rons Dream (good to soft)

1/1—Vroum Vroum Mag (good to soft)

 

4.50: Seven-year-olds have won six of the last twelve contests and I have win and place notions about ARPEGE D’ALENE and even BELLS N BANJOS at the exhilarating price of 50/1 representing the Fergal O’Brien team that never turn their back on a challenge, however much layers dismiss their chances, a stance which has cost them plenty of money ay Cheltenham in recent years.  That said, GENIE IN ABOTTLE, EDWULF and FLINTHAM have terrific pilots on their side here, which cannot be ignored in this type of (amateur) event.

Favourite factor: Fate of recent favourites: 22 market leaders—5 winners—4 placed—13 unplaced. First three in the betting: 69 runners--8 winners--14 placed--47 unplaced.

Cheltenham record of course winners in the 'NH Chase':

1/5—Champers On Ice (heavy)

1/2—Martello Tower (soft)

2/4—Tiger Roll (good & good to soft)

1/1—What A Moment (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Cheltenham card on Tuesday – followed by their five year ratio at the track + profits/losses accrued:

11—Willie Mullins (1/2 – slight loss)

9—Nicky Henderson (4/36 – loss of 18 points)

8—Henry De Bromhead (1/9 – loss of 2 points)

8—Alan King (3/23 – loss of 4 points)

5—Gordon Elliott (0/8)

5—Neil Mulholland (2/12 – loss of 6 points)

5—Nigel Twiston-Davies (7/33 – Profit of 1 point)

4—Paul Nicholls (6/45 – loss of 13 points)

4—David Pipe (2/18 – loss of 5 points)

4—Dan Shelton (4/36 – loss of 18 points)

4—Colin Tizzard (6/42 – Profit of 20 points)

3—Tom George (2/10 – loss of 6 points)

3—Malcolm Jefferson (0/1)

3—Venetia Williams (0/9)

2—Peter Bowen (0/5)

2—Rebecca Curtis (1/13 – Profit of 8 points)

2—Fergal O’Brien (3/19 – Profit of 4 points)

2—Noel Meade (No previous runners this season)

2—Jonjo O’Neill (3/24 (Profit of 25 points)

2—Ben Pauling (0/12)

+ 27 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

115 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Sedgefield: £153.00 – 3 winners & 3 unplaced

Southwell: £152.40 – 5 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced (1 non-runner - second favourite in the relevant contest was unplaced; hence the good dividend)

Wolverhampton: £25.50 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 4 placed – 1 unplaced

 

 

 

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Sunday March 5

HUNTINGDON – MARCH 5

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £289.60 (8 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Sunday's Placepot permutation at Huntingdon: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 2 (Azzuri) & 5 (Land League)

Leg 2 (2.30): 1 (Fifty Bob), 2 (Good Man Hughie) & 9 (Far From Defeat)

Leg 3 (3.00): 4 (Nesterenko), 7 (Weststreet) & 2 (Derrintogher Bliss)

Leg 4 (3.30): 1 (Desert Queen) & 3 (Antartica De Thaix)

Leg 5 (4.00): 3 (Blameitalonmyroots), 6 (Lord Heathfield) & 9 (Wood Yer)

Leg 6 (4.30): 8 (Walsingham Grange) & 2 (Ryeolliean)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Sunday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.00: Dan Skelton's ratio continues to impress, so much so that I thought I would offer the details.  First season; 16% strike rate in the NH sector via 27 winners – second season: 19% via 73 winners - last season: 20% via 104 gold medallists and at the time of writing this term: 79 winners (15%).  It is nigh impossible to look beyond Dan’s representative AZZURI, despite the fact that the five-year-old was a beaten favourite last time out.  His placed efforts in Grade 1 and Grade 2 races at Kempton and Aintree tell you all you need to know in the context of this (otherwise) poor opening event.  LAND LEAGUE should fill the forecast position from what we have witnessed thus far.

Favourite factor: Six of the ten market leaders have won this opening event.  Eight of the ten have secured toteplacepot positions to date.

 

2.30: FAR FROM DEFEAT represents the in form yard of Michael Scudamore with an each way chance in a race which not require a great deal of winning.  That said, FIFTY BOB and GOOD MAN HUGHIE are more obvious winners in the field I guess.  It’s interesting that with two runners in the contest, Kim Bailey has booked the services of a claimer aboard FIFTY BOB who ran well at Doncaster last time out.  The step up in trip here should suit as well.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 2/1 favourite duly obliged.

 

3.00: Venetia Williams had a day to forget yesterday as all seven inmates were beaten, albeit four of her previous five runners had won.  Providing the ground does not cut up too badly, NESTERENKO might return a smile to the trainer’s face, with Grand National winning jockey Liam Treadwell in the plate today.  Can you believe that nearly eight years have passed since the trainer/jockey bandwagon scored with Mon Mome at Aintree?  It’s disappointing to report that Liam has secured just two subsequent ‘Grade races’ since that day back in 2009.  Upwards and onward by suggesting that WESTSTREET could emerge as the biggest threat, especially if the anticipated showers arrive on cue. Soft ground course winner DERRINTOGHER BLISS is the other potential winner in the field according to the gospel of yours truly.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Huntingdon card.

Record of the course winner in the third race:

1/1—Derrintogher Bliss (soft)

 

3.30: Paul Nicholls landed a 194/1 treble for me yesterday, albeit it took ten bites of the cherry (runners) to land the hat trick.  Paul saddles just the one runners today with ANTARTICA DE THAIX in this event, Paul’s only inmate to receive a green light this week until Thursday at the earliest, a sure sign that a certain festival is upcoming!  That said, DESERT QUEEN does not seem to have any more to do than was the case Leicester recently when Harry Fry’s mare scored with the minimum of fuss.

Favourite factor: Last year’s (Willie Mullins trained) 1/2 favourite found one too good, despite securing a Placepot position in a ‘short field’ contest. New readers might want to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runners races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way & Placepot perspectives.

Record of the course winner in the fourth event on the card:

1/2—Kassis (good)

 

4.00: WOOD YER would have been the automatic call (still figures in my Placepot mix) but for the fact that the Nigel Twiston-Davies runners have suddenly gone off the boil following a thoroughly impressive strike rate of 23% via 76 winners during a six month period which ended in January.  Since then, Nigel’s inmates have recorded a strike rate of less than 6% via just four winners, none of which have scored during the last fortnight (26 runners).  Accordingly, I feel obligated to prefer BLAMEITALONMYROOTS and LORD HEATHFIELD from a win perspective this time around.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 6/5 favourite was the only runner that failed to complete the course in a four runner ‘win only’ event.

Record of the course winners in the fifth race:

1/2—Cyclop (good to soft)

1/3—Ganbei (good to soft)

1/1—Wood Yer (good to soft)

Your first 30 days for just £1

 

4.30: RYEOLLIEAN could prove to the be the each way option with Gary Moore’s team going well at present, notwithstanding the fact that the six-year-old has been dropped three spots, now taking him 13 pounds below his last winning mark.  Pam Sly’s recent Catterick winner WALSINGHAM GRANGE might still take the beating however.

Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is another new race on the Huntingdon programme.

Record of the course winner in the ‘lucky last’:

1/2—Steel City (heavy)

 

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Huntingdon card on Sunday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

 

5 runners—Nigel Twiston-Davies 3/15 – loss of 4 points)

4—Kim Bailey (2/18 – loss of 9 points)

4—Jonjo O’Neill (3/20 – loss of 5 points)

3—David Peter Dunne (No previous runners)

3—Oliver Sherwood (0/7)

3—Pam Sly (0/1)

3—Dan Skelton (1/13 – loss of 10 points)

2—Henry Daly (0/3)

2—Mick Easterby (0/6)

2—Alan King (4/18 – loss of 1 points)

2—A J Martin (No previous runners)

2—Laura Mongan (0/3)

2—Gary Moore (3/15 – Profit of 2 points)

2—Neil Mulholland (3/11 - Profit of 6 points)

2—Michael Scudamore (0/1)

2—Derek Shaw (0/2)

2—Venetia Williams (0/3)

+ 39 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

84 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Sedgefield: £2,165.60 – 8 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 4 unplaced