Tag Archive for: Sedgefield racecourse

Racing Insights, Thursday 23/02/23

Thursday's free feature, the Instant Expert racecard tab is one of Geegeez readers' most popular tools because it has the unique ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view covering the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

We make this feature freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday for ALL races, including, naturally, our selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 2.05 Sedgefield
  • 2.15 Huntingdon
  • 3.40 Thurles
  • 4.25 Sedgefield

..from which I'm going to look at the 4.25 Sedgefield, an 8-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left-handed 2m½f on good ground...

None of these managed a win last time out, but both Legendary Day and Start In Front were runners-up and now make a handicap debut over hurdles, as does Bertie's Wish. These three are also the only ones with a recent win to their name and they along with Lord Caprio bring the best form to the table. Plenty of these are running at a different class to LTO with only Bertie's Wish, Start In Front and They Call Me Pete having raced at Class 4 last time and the latter makes just a second handicap start. He'll wear first-time cheekpieces here, whilst it's also Bertie's Wish's first time in a hood.

Of the class movers, top weight and 12 yr old veteran Glimpse of Gold is the only class dropper after failing to complete his at two starts. The rest of the field (Legendary Day, Lord Caprio, North Parade & Golden Town) all step up from Class 5. They Call Me Pete is the only one yet to win at a similar trip to this one, whilst five of the pack (Legendary Day, Bertie's Wish, Lord Caprio, North Parade & Golden Town) have done it here at Sedgefield.

It's a little over three months since Lord Caprio was seen on a racecourse and Glimpse of Gold hasn't run since New Year's Day, but the others have all been out in the last two to four weeks. So far, my instincts are suggesting I spilt the pack and side with the three handicap debutants plus Lord Caprio, but time will tell. Feature of the Day is, of course, Instant Expert, so let's what that tells us about this field...

And it's a mixed bag, isn't it? The four I was interested in have good numbers off small sample sizes, Glimpse of Gold has a wealth of experience and has won his fair share of races and They Call Me Pete has yet to make the frame in five (1 x NHF, 4 x hrds) starts. North Parade has won here over course and distance almost a year ago, but that was the exception to his normal results and a 1 from 12 record at the trip isn't good at all, nor is the fact that he has failed to complete four of seven runs since the start of 2022.

As for bottom weight and another 12 yo veteran, Golden Town, it doesn't look great at all. Yes, he has made the frame in just a third of his 53 career outings, but he's only won 4 of 47 NH contests and hasn't made the frame in any of his last eleven starts going back to 2nd June 2021, when second at the yard's favoured track, Cartmel. At this point, Golden Town looks the weakest contender despite receiving weight all round.

The pace stats from these runners' most recent outings suggest that my preferred quartet will be spread through the pack...

...as Start In Front likes to do exactly that, but will probably have company early on from Glimpse of Gold and North Parade. Legendary Day is likely to race in midfield with Bertie's Wish and Lord Caprio our back markers and the analysis from past contests says that it's not easy to win or even make the frame from the back...

...so that's not ideal for the likes of Bertie's Wish and Lord Caprio.

Summary

Quite early on, I felt that the three handicap debutants (Legendary Day, Start In Front and Bertie's Wish) plus Lord Caprio made up the half of the field I'd want to be with. Bertie's Wish and Lord Caprio were the weaker pair on Instant Expert and also look troubled by the pace perspective, so I'm going to say their chances are much diminished and if they're battling it out for third place, that would be great.

As for the Legendary Day vs Start In Front conundrum, I don't think there's that much between them, but as Start In Front has a better pace profile for this race, gets nearly a stone from the other and is attractively priced, then an 11/2 bet on Start In Front could be the way forward.