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Stat of the Day, 6th August 2020

Wednesday's pick was...

5.35 Lingfield : Alezan @ 4/1 BOG 8th at 5/2 (Led, ridden and headed over 2f out, weakened final furlong) 

Thursday's pick runs in the...

5.20 Stratford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

See The Sea @ 3/1 BOG

Your first 30 days for just £1

...in a 7-runner, Class 3, Mares Handicap Hurdle for 3yo+ over 2m½f on Good ground worth £5,393 to the winner... 

Why?...

As I set my daily reports to generate qualifiers at an A/E of 1.25 or greater and an IV of 1.50 and greater, this runner appeared 6 times in my report this morning, as you can see below...

 

 

 

 

 

 

and to be honest, there's probably enough there to hang a bet on, but rather than just lean heavily on very recent (14/30 day) form, let's take a closer look at trainer Donald McCain's record here at Stratford, shall we?

The above says he has a 14 from 61 (almost 23% SR) record here over the last five years, which is decent enough to retain my interest and spark me to look closer and when I did just that, I found that in hurdles contests since the start of 2016, his runners racing over trips no further than 2m3f were...

...with a win ratio of almost 1 in 3 and an ROI of almost 175% at betfair SP and now that's really interesting/relevant and a far better stat to hang the bet upon. Of those 31 runners...

  • 10/21 (47.6%) for 64.1pts (+305.2%) at 11-45 dslr
  • 10/15 (66.6%) for 70.1pts (+467.3%) in 4-7 runner contests
  • 9/19 (47.4%) for 61.77pts (+325.1%) during June to September
  • 8/17 (47.1%) for 19.89pts (+117%) at odds of 6/1 and shorter
  • 5/20 (25%) for 20.05pts (+100.2%) over this 2m½f C&D
  • 5/12 (41.7%) for 9.54pts (+79.5%) off a mark (OR) of 120 or higher
  • 4/10 (40%) for 8.71pts (+87.1%) with jockey Brian Hughes
  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 28.14pts (+312.6%) at Class 3
  • 3/8 (37.5%) for 22.42pts (+280.2%) with female runners
  • and 2/5 (40%) for 21.8pts (+436%) in female only races

...and the most exciting thing for me from stats perspective is that from the above, those returning from an 11-45 day break to run in a 4-7 runner contest during June to September are 9 from 9 (100% SR) for 71.77pts (+797.5% ROI) profit...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on See The Sea @ 3/1 BOG as was widely available (inc several BOGs and Bet365 were a half point bigger) at 8.15 am Thursday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 5.20 Stratford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!