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Stat of the Day, 16th June 2020

Monday's pick was...

3.25 Pontefract : My Girl Maggie @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 5/4 (Chased leader, led 2f out, ridden inside final furlong, headed close home and beaten by a neck)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

4.00 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Seneca Chief @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 6, A/W handicap for 4yo+ over 5f on Polytrack worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

With two wins (inc a C&D here) and a runner-up finish from his last four starts on the all-weather, this 6yr old gelding clearly brings the best form to the table today, compared to his rivals. He won well at Wolverhampton at this class/trip four days ago despite coming off a four-month break and should hopefully improve for having had the run.

Much of the above is quite clear on the racecard entry...

...and a quick look at his record on the all-weather tells us that he is...

  • 2 from 6 over 5f
  • 2 from 5 at Class 6
  • 2 from 4 in handicaps
  • 2 from 4 in a hood
  • 2 from 4 in May/June
  • 2 from 3 in 9-runner contests
  • 1 from 2 here at Chelmsford
  • and 1 from 2 over course and distance

You'll also notice a blue number 1 on that racecard snippet, denoting that this horse is flagged up on my query tool reports and clicking that "1" shows...

...which tells me that this horse is trained by one of the trainers I look out for in 5f sprints on the A/W. And indeed, that's the case today, as trainer Daniel Kubler's record increases dramatically in such races, transforming an overall record of...

...to the following in 5f A/W contests...

These 40 runners include the following of note/relevance today...

  • 11/32 (34.4%) for 72.04pts (+225.1%) in handicaps
  • 8/21 (38.1%) for 65.37pts (+311.3%) from male runners
  • 7/22 (31.8%) for 38.36pts (+174.4%) since the start of 2018
  • 7/21 (33.3%) for 49pts (+233.4%) in races worth less than £4k
  • 7/20 (35%) for 60.44pts (+302.2%) in fields of 9/10 runners
  • 7/14 (50%) for 30.37pts (+216.9%) within 15 days of their last run
  • 6/19 (31.6%) for 24.97pts (+131.4%) on Polytrack
  • 5/13 (38.5%) for 48.93pts (+376.4%) at Class 6
  • 5/9 (55.6%) for 12.79pts (+142.1%) from those placed 1st or 2nd LTO
  • and 3 from 5 (60%) for 45.79pts (+915.8%) in May/June

And with the above suggesting that he does well in handicaps, does well with quick returning horses and does well with those who had a good race last time out, you'll probably not be too surprised to see...


With that excellent 12/20 record including of interest today...

  • 10/15 (66.6%) for 29.05pts (+193.7%) in races worth less than £4k
  • 8/14 (57.1%) for 23.91pts (+170.8%) on the A/W
  • 8/13 (61.5%) for 28.61pts (+220.1%) since the start of 2016
  • 7/11 (63.6%) for 20.24pts (+184%) at Class 6
  • 4/10 (40%) for 3.89pts (+38.9%) from LTO winners
  • 4/6 (66.6%) for 21.29pts (+354.9%) on Polytrack
  • 4/4 (100%) for 18.8pts (+470%) within 5 days of their last run
  • and 3 from 4 (75%) for 11.47pts (+286.8%) over 5 furlongs...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Seneca Chief @ 11/4 BOG as was widely available at 8.05am Tuesday (3/1 available at 9.00am if you're not already on), but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.00 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!