Tag Archive for: September Stakes

Sat TV Trends: 9th Sept 2023

This Saturday the ITV cameras head to Haydock, Kempton and Ascot to take in races across the three venues. The Group One Sprint Cup is the clear highlight of the weekend from Haydock - Did you know that 17 of the last 21 Sprint Cup winners were aged 5 or younger, while 16 of the last 21 came from stalls 5 or higher?

Here at GeeGeez we are on hand with all the key trends and stats - use these to help find the best winning profiles of past winners.

Saturday 9th September 2023

HAYDOCK Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV3)

1.50 – Best Odds On The Betfair Exchange Superior Mile (Group 3) Cl1 1m ITV3

17/19 – Won over 1m or further before
16/19 – Won 3 or more times before
16/19 – Winning distance 1 length or more
14/19 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
14/19 – Had 3 or more runs that season
13/19 – Had won a Listed or better race before
11/19 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
10/19 – Placed favourites
8/19 – Ran at either York or Ascot last time out
7/19 – Winning favourites
6/19 – Won last time out
5/19 – Had won at Haydock before
3/19 – Trained by Roger Charlton
3/19 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/19 – Trained by Brian Ellison
7 of the last 13 winners came from stalls 1 or 4
4 of the last 5 winners came from stall 2
8 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 4 or lower

2.25 – Get Daily Rewards With Betfair Handicap Cl2 1m6f ITV3

13/14 – Came from stalls 3-10 (inc)
13/14 – Had run in the last 4 weeks
11/14 – Had won over at least 1m4f before
11/14 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
11/14 – Rated between 81-90 (inc)
10/14 – Carried 9-1 or less in weight
8/14 – Came from stalls 6-10 (inc)
8/14 – Irish Bred
8/14 – Ran at either York (6) or Newbury (2) last time out
6/14 – Placed favourites
5/14 – Won last time out
4/14 – Winning favourites
2/14 – Trained by Andrew Balding (2 of the last 7)
2/14 – Trained by Johnston yard (2 of the last 11)

3.00 – Betfair Exchange Old Borough Cup Handicap Cl2 1m6f ITV3

19/20 – Had won over at least 1m4f before
19/20 – Had won at least twice before
18/20 – Had run 4 or more times that season
16/20 – Rated 90 to 101
15/20 – Aged 3, 4 or 5 years-old
15/20 – Finished 4th or better last time out
13/20 – Drawn in stall 7 or higher
12/20 – Winning distance ¾ lengths or less
12/20 – Had run over 1m6f before
11/20 – Ran at Haydock before
10/20 – Carried 9-0 or more
8/20 – Ran at York last time out
6/20 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
4/20 – Trained by the Johnston yard
2/20 – Ridden by Joe Fanning
2/20 – Trained by Ian Williams
2/20 – Trained by Heather Main
Island Brave (10/1) won the race in 2021 and 2022
Euchen Glen (14/1) won this race in 2020

3.35 – Betfair Sprint Cup (British Champions Series) (Group 1) Cl1 6f ITV3

19/21 – Unplaced horses from stall 1
18/21 – Rated 111 or higher
18/21 – Had won over 6f before
17/21 - Aged 5 or younger
17/21 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
16/21 – Had 4 or more career wins to their name
16/21 – Didn’t win their previous race
16/21 – Drawn in stall 5 or higher
15/21 – Had won a Group race before
14/21 – Winning distance 1 length or less
14/21 –Had 4 or more runs that season
11/21 – Ran at Deauville (5) or York (6) last time out
11/21 – Ran at Deauville (5) or York (6) last time out
10/21 – Had run at Haydock before (4 had won)
10/21 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
8/21 – Drawn in a double-figure stall
7/21 – Had won a Group 1 before
7/21 – Winning favourites
50% of the last 12 winners aged 3 years-old
7 of the last 8 winners came between stalls 4-8
2/21 – Trained by Henry Candy
2/21 – Trained by Kevin Ryan
2/21 – Ridden by Oisin Murphy
The average winning SP in the last 21 years is 17/2

Ascot Horse Racing Trends (Sky Sports Racing/ITV3)

2.35 – bet365 Handicap Cl2 (3yo+) 7f ITV3

12/12 – Had won over 7f before
12/12 – Winning distance 1 ¼ lengths or less
11/12 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
11/12 – Had run at the course before
10/12 – Carried 9-1 or less in weight
9/12 – Didn’t win last time out
9/12 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
6/12 – Irish bred
6/12 – Unplaced last time out
5/12 – Won by a claiming jockey (5 of the last 8)
5/12 – Had between 4-7 wins already
4/12 – Rated between 95-97
4/12 – Aged 5 years-old
2/12 – Winners from stall 12
0/12 – Winning favourites
Fresh (11/2) won the race in 2022
Top Secret (5/1) won the race in 2021

3.10 - Lavazza Stakes (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 1m4f ITV3

11/13 – Rated between 84-95
11/13 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
8/13 – Had won just once before
7/13 – Carried 9-0 or more
7/13 – Won last time out
6/13 – Horses placed from stall 10
6/13 – Had run at Ascot before (4 won)
6/13 – Horses placed from stall 8
5/13 – Returned a double-figure price
5/13 – Winning favourites (1 co, 1 joint)
4/13 – Ran at Ascot last time out
3/13 – Trained by Roger Varian
3/13 – Trained by William Haggas (last 2)
2/13 – Won by trainer Saeed Bin Suroor
Note: the 2015 running was a dead-heat

Kempton Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV3)

1.35 – Unibet September Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m4f ITV3

16/17 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
13/17 – Had won a Listed or Group race before
13/17 – Placed favourites
12/17 – Had won over 1m4f before (or further)
12/17 – Winning distance – 1 ¼l or more
12/17 – Didn’t win last time out
11/17 – Had won between 4-7 times before
11/17 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
10/17 – Had run at Kempton before
9/17 – Horses from stall 2 that finished in the top 3
6/17 – Winning favourites
6/17 – Aged 4 years-old
5/17 – Ran at York (3) or Windsor (2) last time out
5/17 – Trained by John Gosden (4 of the last 7)
4/17 – Godolphin-owned runners
3/17 – Winners from stall 2
3/17 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
2/17 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/17 – Winners from stall 1

2.10 - Unibet London Mile Series Final Handicap Cl2(3yo+) 1m ITV3

16/16 – Had run at Kempton before
14/16 – Had won over a mile before
13/16 – Won between 3-7 times before
11/16 – Unplaced favourites
11/16 – Aged 4 years-old
9/16 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
7/16 – Returned 20/1 or bigger in the betting
6/16 – Rated between 77-85
6/16 – Ran at Kempton last time out
5/16 – Won last time out
5/16 – Horses from stall 9 that finished in the top 3
4/16 – Winning favourites
2/16 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
5 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 14 (3) or 16 (2)
First View (7/2 fav) won the race in 2022

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Monday Musings: Weird Ky Derby Looks Authentic!

It’s been a topsy-turvy world for everyone this year, writes Tony Stafford. I bet the connections of Tiz The Law, 7-10 favourite for Saturday night’s re-scheduled Kentucky Derby, run in 2020 as the second rather than first leg of the Triple Crown, wished the race had simply been erased from the schedules. Instead it took place in September rather than the first Saturday in May and the Bob Baffert-trained Authentic outstayed the favourite for a memorable sixth win in the race for his silver-haired trainer.

The Americans have not found it within their powers to re-write the programme books as their European counterparts did to keep their Classic races, if not to the normal schedule, certainly in the prescribed order.

The Stateside authorities changed the distance and position of the Belmont Stakes, but kept it in June, racing having resumed over there a good deal earlier in some jurisdictions than others and well before France, the UK and Ireland in that order.

The Belmont, normally the last leg and over a mile and a half of the biggest oval in North America was reduced in distance to nine furlongs. The Barclay Tagg-trained Tiz The Law was untroubled to beat nine rivals there and extend his career stats to five wins in six starts. He embellished it further with a facile win in the Travers Stakes – normally the August date which identifies the summer champion among the three-year-old colts – two months and more after the Belmont.

By the time the three-race, five-week war of attrition is concluded on that June afternoon in New York, normally most of the Classic generation that managed to keep all three dates are on their knees. It takes a good one to survive it.

Two years ago, Justify was Baffert’s fifth winner of the race and his second to complete the generally-elusive Triple Crown. The Belmont, following the Preakness two weeks after the Derby and then the race in New York three weeks further on, proved to be within Justify’s capabilities, but no more. His career came to a full stop after a training injury soon after, but at least he could be retired as an unbeaten winner of the Triple Crown with six out of six on his scorecard.

Three years earlier Baffert was immediately denied an unbeaten campaign for American Pharoah once he was beaten on debut in a maiden the previous autumn. But by the time he’d won his Triple Crown, his tally was seven for eight, with all bar one of the wins in Grade 1 company – the exception a first-time three-year-old cruise in a Grade 2 to get the competitive juices flowing again.

He was tough, too. He won the Haskell Invitational in early August at Monmouth Park, but then as so many before him, got beat in the Travers at Saratoga, for good reason known as the Graveyard race for Triple Crown race winners or Horse of the Year candidates. He bounced back after a sensible break with an impressive win in the Breeders’ Cup Classic before drawing stumps and preceding his younger fellow TC hero into stud duties at Ashford Farm.

I was on hand – for the only time - to see Baffert’s third Kentucky Derby win in 2002 with War Emblem in the green and white stripes of Prince Ahmed Salman’s Thoroughbred Corporation. That 20-1 chance made all the running.  Baffert had already sent out Silver Charm (1997) and Real Quiet the following year to score. I’ve no doubt that having put away Tiz The Law in a thrilling set-to up the Churchill Downs home straight, many would have been hoping to see them do battle again at Pimlico racecourse in Baltimore for the Preakness, but immediate post-race reaction suggested one or even both might miss the final leg.

That race, normally run two weeks after the Derby but this year four, unlike the Belmont but in common with the Derby, has retained its traditional distance of one mile and three-sixteenths. This was the course and distance over which California-based Seabiscuit memorably beat the East Coast champion War Admiral, the 1937 Kentucky Derby winner, in that famed match race. This of course was made doubly treasured by Laura Hillenbrand’s book and the film in which Tobey Maguire and Gary Stevens – as good and natural an actor as he has been for so many years an outstanding jockey – played the roles as the great underdog’s jockeys.

As they turned for home in that 1938 race, the big favourite War Emblem had drawn upsides and most of the massive crowd expected him to pull away. Instead it was Seabiscuit, who had become a much-loved symbol of the American working class in those Depression years, who gained the upper hand: courage and toughness outpointing class and evidently superior breeding.

Saturday’s Classic was virtually a re-make of the Seabiscuit film. Two horses came around the long turn between the back stretch and the home run with the favourite poised on the outside and the rest clearly irrelevant. Authentic had moved quickly from an ordinary start into an early lead from his wide position, so it was reasonable watching live to think he could be swamped when Tiz The Law, always well placed, came with his customary wide run to take his rightful place at the top of the podium.

But as with Seabiscuit, this relative underdog, third favourite at a shade over 8-1, kept going much the better for a length and a quarter success.

Going into the race, Authentic, like the favourite, had suffered only a single reverse, in his case behind Honor A P in the Santa Anita Derby, turning over an earlier result between the pair. Understandably, Honor A P edged him for second best in the Derby market, but there can be no doubting the pecking order now, as Honor A P finished five lengths behind the winner in fourth.

A smaller-than-usual field contested the race this year. Normally it’s a bun-fight to qualify for one of the 20 available stalls. This time, only 15 turned up, reflecting that there are fewer untested dreams at this stage of the season from later-developing horses than is customary. What I did notice, possibly because of the smaller field and the fact that the runners have had more racing experience than is customary, hard-luck stories seemed minimal.

Also it was one of the fastest-ever Kentucky Derbys, the winner clocking 2 minutes 0.61 seconds. Secretariat in 1973 still holds the all-time best with 1 minute 59.4 seconds in his Triple Crown year. Monarchos in 2001 has the fastest electronic time, while in 1964 Northern Dancer, the ultimate sire of sires, most significantly the direct line, from his son Sadler’s Wells through to Galileo and then Frankel and the rest, clocked an even 2 minutes.

Other fast times were Spend A Buck, 2.00.2 in 1985 and Decidedly 2.00.4 in 1962.  Authentic, with only five faster than him is right up there in historical terms, certainly in front of Baffert’s previous quintet, the less attritional, more even-tempo nature of the race – on a track that was riding fast – doubtless contributing.

Many times, beaten Kentucky Derby runners avoid the Preakness entirely. This year, of the nine horses beaten by Tiz The Law in the first leg of the Triple Crown, only two – neither in the shake-up on Saturday – tried again.

It would be eminently understandable should either or both the big two miss the Preakness in four weeks’ time. A great shame too as if they did clash they would surely provide another proper shoot-out. Considering, though, how much money is on offer for the Breeders’ Cup Classic in the autumn and how easily future stallion fees can be affected by reverses, maybe it’s more likely that we’ll have to wait for a definitive verdict of the Horse of the Year - Covid19 edition!

*

While the Kentucky Derby was taking all the attention over the water, Enable was fulfilling presumably her last public duties in the UK (she still has entries on British Champions’ Day – here’s hoping) before embarking on her final act of an epic career when easily landing the odds (1-14 are hardly odds!) in the September Stakes at Kempton Park.

She was quickly into the lead under Frankie Dettori and won easily from Kirstenbosch, owned by Luca Cumani’s Fittocks Stud. Lightly-raced and on the comeback trail after an interrupted career, Kirstenbosch looks sure to win more races for the James Fanshawe stable.

Meanwhile Enable will be preparing for her ultimate quest, aiming to add a third Arc win after last year’s agonising second to Waldgeist, interestingly on the same weekend as the Preakness. Dettori has been a fitting co-respondent in the mare’s final glorious chapter along with trainer John Gosden. How typical in sport that a younger rival has come along from out of nowhere – well, Ballydoyle! - to make this possibly the toughest of all her four challenges for the famed French race that has become the true European championship.

Love stands in her way, gloriously after three authoritative and sometimes wide margin wins at Group 1 level in the 1,000 Guineas, the Oaks and the Yorkshire Oaks. I suppose there will be other challengers, but nobody loves a two-man (or woman) sporting tussle more than the viewing public. I’d love Enable to win but I don’t think Love will enable her to do so. If you see what I mean!

On an otherwise quiet weekend domestically, Haydock Park’s Group 1 race, the Betfair Sprint Cup, developed into a battle of the six-year-old geldings. The 5-2 favourite Dream Of Dreams, ridden by Oisin Murphy for the Sir Michael Stoute stable, got up in the closing stages to beat the Archie Watson-trained and Hollie Doyle-ridden 25-1 chance Glen Shiel, the pair leaving the three-year-olds Golden Horde, Art Power and Lope Y Fernandez well behind. The same went for two previous winners, The Tin Man and Hello Youmzain.

https://twitter.com/RacingTV/status/1302253464068788231

A race with rather more significance for the future was Yesterday’s Prix du Moulin de Longchamp on the first weekend since the racing roadshow decamped back from Deauville and its chewed-up terrain to the capital. Only six turned out, but it was a high-class affair. The Andre Fabre-trained Persian King (by Kingman) turned away Pinatubo by just over a length, with Circus Maximus a long way back in third but still ahead of Irish 2,000 Guineas hero Siskin who seems a shadow of the early-season version.

https://twitter.com/AtTheRaces/status/1302676690670243840

Persian King had been three lengths in arrears to Circus Maximus when they were third and fourth behind unbeaten Palace Pier in the Prix Jacques le Marois (also Group 1) three weeks earlier over the same trip at Deauville. This performance requires some re-alignment among the division, but it is clear that Palace Pier stands alone at the top of the mile rankings. Those three Irish fillies, Fancy Blue, Alpine Star and Peaceful, who dominated the finish of the Prix de Diane over the extended mile and a quarter at Chantilly, might prove more of a test to Palace Pier than any of yesterday’s Moulin contestants should they be given the opportunity to tackle him.

  • TS