Kalpana’s odds for her Champions Day engagement were chopped following an impressive victory in the Unibet September Stakes at Kempton.
Winner of a Listed event at Hamilton on her most recent start, the Juddmonte-owned Kalpana is as low as 7-2 favourite with William Hill for the Qipco British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes following her win in the hands of PJ McDonald.
Lion’s Pride had gone for home in the Group Three feature, but McDonald merely had to give the signal and the Andrew Balding-trained filly shot clear to coast home a four-and-three-quarter-length winner.
McDonald, who has ridden Group One winners in Laurens and Pyledriver, has no doubt Kalpana (evens favourite) can make her mark in the highest company if she lines up at Ascot on October 19.
He told Racing TV: “One hundred per cent (I can see her being aimed at at Group One), I can’t see no reason (why not). Personally, I think she’s still a bit green and raw. I think she will continue to improve with time and age. I’d be very excited about her.
“It’s very hard to say (how she would rank against the best horses I have ridden), I don’t like to compare horses, but this filly has so much more improvement to give. I think the sky is the limit for her, to be honest.
“It was very smooth, I was always in control and I felt at every stage of the race I was doing things easily.
“She did it very easily at Hamilton, but today I properly sat into her, gave her a flick (of my whip) and let her stretch – you could see the further she was going, the better she was going. She galloped out to the line so well.”
Symbol Of Strength lived up to his name as he dug deep for Group Three glory in the Unibet Sirenia Stakes.
Adrian Keatley’s charge posted a career-best effort when defying his 80-1 odds to finish third in the Gimcrack at York last month and punters had plenty of confidence in victory this time around.
Sent off the 5-2 favourite, Symbol Of Strength raced in mid-division through the early stages of the six-furlong contest before Tom Marquand switched to the middle of the track to launch his run in the straight.
The Kodiac colt had to work to reel in Jouncy and as he headed that rival, Brian made a late lunge for glory, but Symbol Of Strength had enough in reserve at the line for a half-length call over Jouncy with Brian just a head away in third.
Symbol Of Strength’s odds for the Juddmonte Middle Park Stakes were cut to 14-1 from 25s by Paddy Power following his victory, with Keatley also considering the Dubai Duty Free Mill Reef Stakes at Newbury.
He said: “It will very much depend on the ground. We’ll be keeping an eye on both of those races and all the doors are open for him now. We will be looking closely at Newbury, but also with a view to looking at Newmarket.
“His form is right there, the horse is well up in the betting for the Middle Park and he was thereabouts in York as well last time as well.
“He has put that to bed today with probably everything against him as he was well back and got the job done.
“He’s not just a two-year-old, I think he could step back to five furlongs but also he races sensibly and he could get seven next year.
“We will be looking at all the big races now and I think we’re entitled to.”
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/276577114-scaled.jpg12802560Geegeez Newshttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngGeegeez News2024-09-07 14:16:242024-09-07 14:16:24Impressive Kalpana cut for Champions Day mission
This Saturday the ITV cameras head to Haydock, Kempton and Ascotto take in races across the three venues. The Group One Sprint Cup is the clear highlight of the weekend from Haydock - Did you know that 18 of the last 22 Sprint Cup winners were aged 5 or younger, while 17 of the last 22 winners came from stalls 5 or higher?
Here at GeeGeez we are on hand with all the key trends and stats - use these to help find the best winning profiles of past winners.
Saturday 7th September 2024
HAYDOCK Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)
1:15 – Best Odds On The Betfair Exchange Superior Mile (Group 3) Cl1 1m ITV
18/20 – Won over 1m or further before
17/20 – Won 3 or more times before
17/20 – Winning distance 1 length or more
15/20 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
14/20 – Had 3 or more runs that season
14/20 – Had won a Listed or better race before
11/20 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
11/20 – Placed favourites
8/20 – Ran at either York or Ascot last time out
7/20 – Winning favourites
6/20 – Won last time out
5/20 – Had won at Haydock before
3/20 – Trained by Roger Charlton
3/20 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/20 – Trained by Brian Ellison
7 of the last 14 winners came from stalls 1 or 4
4 of the last 6 winners came from stall 2
9 of the last 11 winners came from stalls 4 or lower
1:50 – Betfair Plays Different Handicap Cl2 1m6f ITV
14/15 – Came from stalls 3-10 (inc)
14/15 – Had run in the last 4 weeks
12/15 – Had won over at least 1m4f before
12/15 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
11/15 – Rated between 81-90 (inc)
10/15 – Carried 9-1 or less in weight
9/15 – Came from stalls 6-10 (inc)
9/15 – Irish Bred
8/15 – Ran at either York (6) or Newbury (2) last time out
6/15 – Placed favourites
6/15 – Won last time out
4/15 – Winning favourites
2/15 – Trained by Andrew Balding (2 of the last 8)
2/15– Trained by Johnston yard (2 of the last 12) William Haggas has won 2 of the last 4 runnings
Oisin Murphy has ridden 2 of the last 8 runnings
2:25 – Betfair Exchange Old Borough Cup Handicap Cl2 1m6f ITV
20/21 – Had won over at least 1m4f before
20/21 – Had won at least twice before
19/21 – Had run 4 or more times that season
17/21 – Rated 90 to 101
16/21 – Aged 3, 4 or 5 years-old
15/21 – Finished 4th or better last time out
14/21 – Drawn in stall 7 or higher
12/21 – Winning distance ¾ lengths or less
13/21 – Had run over 1m6f before
12/21 – Ran at Haydock before
11/21 – Carried 9-0 or more
9/21 – Ran at York last time out
6/21 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
4/21 – Trained by the Johnston yard
2/21 – Ridden by Joe Fanning
2/21 – Trained by Ian Williams
2/21 – Trained by Heather Main 4 of the last 8 winners won by a claiming jockey
3:00 Betfair Be Friendly Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-105) 5f ITV
17/20 – Previous winners over 5f
15/20 – Had won 4 or more times before
15/20 – Rated 90+
13/20 – Aged 3, 4 or 5 years-old
13/20 – Had run at Haydock before (4 won)
13/20 – Unplaced last time out
13/20 – Drawn in stall 7 or lower
13/20 – Had 8 or more previous runs that season
12/20 – Winning distance - 1 length or less
9/20 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
9/20 – Carried 8-11 or less
8/20 – Placed favourites
3/20 – Won last time out
3/20 – Winning favourites
2/20 – Trained by Tim Easterby
3.35 – Betfair Sprint Cup (British Champions Series) (Group 1) Cl1 6f ITV
20/22 – Unplaced horses from stall 1
19/22 – Had won over 6f before
18/22 – Rated 111 or higher
18/22 - Aged 5 or younger
17/22 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
17/22 – Had 4 or more career wins to their name
17/22 – Didn’t win their previous race
17/22 – Drawn in stall 5 or higher
15/22 – Had won a Group race before
15/22 – Winning distance 1 length or less
14/22 –Had 4 or more runs that season
12/22 – Ran at Deauville (5) or York (7) last time out
11/22 – Had run at Haydock before (5 had won)
11/22 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
9/22 – Drawn in a double-figure stall
7/22 – Had won a Group 1 before
7/22 – Winning favourites
6 of the last 13 winners aged 3 years-old
7 of the last 9 winners came between stalls 4-8 2/22 – Trained by James Fanshawe (2 of last 12) 2/22 – Trained by Henry Candy
2/22 – Trained by Kevin Ryan
2/22 – Ridden by Oisin Murphy
The average winning SP in the last 22 years is 17/2
Ascot Horse Racing Trends (Sky Sports Racing/ITV)
1:35 – bet365 Handicap Cl2 (3yo+) 7f ITV
13/13– Winning distance 1 ¼ lengths or less
12/13 – Had won over 7f before
12/13 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
12/13 – Had run at the course before
11/13 – Carried 9-1 or less in weight
10/13 – Didn’t win last time out
9/13 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
6/13 – Irish bred
6/13 – Unplaced last time out
6/13 – Won by a claiming jockey (6 of the last 9)
6/13 – Had between 4-7 wins already
5/13 – Rated between 95-97
4/13 – Aged 5 years-old
2/13 – Winners from stall 12
0/13 – Winning favourites
Quinault (8/1) won the race in 2023
Fresh (11/2) won the race in 2022
12/14 – Rated between 84-95
12/14 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
8/14 – Had won just once before
7/14 – Carried 9-0 or more
7/14 – Won last time out
6/14 – Horses placed from stall 10
6/14 – Had run at Ascot before (4 won)
6/14 – Horses placed from stall 8
5/14 – Returned a double-figure price
5/14 – Winning favourites (1 co, 1 joint)
4/14 – Ran at Ascot last time out
3/14 – Trained by Roger Varian
3/14 – Trained by William Haggas (last 2)
2/14 – Won by trainer Saeed Bin Suroor
Alsakib (5/1) won the race in 2023
Note: the 2015 running was a dead-heat
Kempton Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)
2:35 – Unibet September Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m4f ITV
17/18 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
14/18 – Had won a Listed or Group race before
14/18 – Placed favourites
13/18 – Winning distance – 1 ¼l or more
13/18 – Didn’t win last time out
12/18 – Had won over 1m4f before (or further)
12/18 – Had won between 4-7 times before
12/18 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
11/18 – Had run at Kempton before
10/18 – Horses from stall 2 that finished in the top 3
7/18 – Winning favourites
6/18 – Aged 4 years-old
5/18 – Ran at York (3) or Windsor (2) last time out
5/18 – Trained by John Gosden (4 of the last 8)
4/18 – Godolphin-owned runners
4/18 – Winners from stall 2
3/18 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
3/18 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/18 – Winners from stall 1
Hamish won this race in 2021
3:15 - Unibet London Mile Series Final Handicap Cl2(3yo+) 1m ITV
17/17 – Had run at Kempton before
15/17 – Had won over a mile before
14/17 – Won between 3-7 times before
11/17 – Unplaced favourites
11/17 – Aged 4 years-old
9/17 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
7/17 – Returned 20/1 or bigger in the betting
6/17 – Rated between 77-85
6/17 – Ran at Kempton last time out
6/17 – Won last time out
5/17 – Horses from stall 9 that finished in the top 3
4/17 – Winning favourites
2/17 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
5 of the last 11 winners came from stalls 14 (3) or 16 (2)
Helm Rock (9/2) won the race in 2023 The Hannon yard have won 2 of the last 5
William Haggas has won 2 of the last 10
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It’s been a topsy-turvy world for everyone this year, writes Tony Stafford. I bet the connections of Tiz The Law, 7-10 favourite for Saturday night’s re-scheduled Kentucky Derby, run in 2020 as the second rather than first leg of the Triple Crown, wished the race had simply been erased from the schedules. Instead it took place in September rather than the first Saturday in May and the Bob Baffert-trained Authentic outstayed the favourite for a memorable sixth win in the race for his silver-haired trainer.
The Americans have not found it within their powers to re-write the programme books as their European counterparts did to keep their Classic races, if not to the normal schedule, certainly in the prescribed order.
The Stateside authorities changed the distance and position of the Belmont Stakes, but kept it in June, racing having resumed over there a good deal earlier in some jurisdictions than others and well before France, the UK and Ireland in that order.
The Belmont, normally the last leg and over a mile and a half of the biggest oval in North America was reduced in distance to nine furlongs. The Barclay Tagg-trained Tiz The Law was untroubled to beat nine rivals there and extend his career stats to five wins in six starts. He embellished it further with a facile win in the Travers Stakes – normally the August date which identifies the summer champion among the three-year-old colts – two months and more after the Belmont.
By the time the three-race, five-week war of attrition is concluded on that June afternoon in New York, normally most of the Classic generation that managed to keep all three dates are on their knees. It takes a good one to survive it.
Two years ago, Justify was Baffert’s fifth winner of the race and his second to complete the generally-elusive Triple Crown. The Belmont, following the Preakness two weeks after the Derby and then the race in New York three weeks further on, proved to be within Justify’s capabilities, but no more. His career came to a full stop after a training injury soon after, but at least he could be retired as an unbeaten winner of the Triple Crown with six out of six on his scorecard.
Three years earlier Baffert was immediately denied an unbeaten campaign for American Pharoah once he was beaten on debut in a maiden the previous autumn. But by the time he’d won his Triple Crown, his tally was seven for eight, with all bar one of the wins in Grade 1 company – the exception a first-time three-year-old cruise in a Grade 2 to get the competitive juices flowing again.
He was tough, too. He won the Haskell Invitational in early August at Monmouth Park, but then as so many before him, got beat in the Travers at Saratoga, for good reason known as the Graveyard race for Triple Crown race winners or Horse of the Year candidates. He bounced back after a sensible break with an impressive win in the Breeders’ Cup Classic before drawing stumps and preceding his younger fellow TC hero into stud duties at Ashford Farm.
I was on hand – for the only time - to see Baffert’s third Kentucky Derby win in 2002 with War Emblem in the green and white stripes of Prince Ahmed Salman’s Thoroughbred Corporation. That 20-1 chance made all the running. Baffert had already sent out Silver Charm (1997) and Real Quiet the following year to score. I’ve no doubt that having put away Tiz The Law in a thrilling set-to up the Churchill Downs home straight, many would have been hoping to see them do battle again at Pimlico racecourse in Baltimore for the Preakness, but immediate post-race reaction suggested one or even both might miss the final leg.
That race, normally run two weeks after the Derby but this year four, unlike the Belmont but in common with the Derby, has retained its traditional distance of one mile and three-sixteenths. This was the course and distance over which California-based Seabiscuit memorably beat the East Coast champion War Admiral, the 1937 Kentucky Derby winner, in that famed match race. This of course was made doubly treasured by Laura Hillenbrand’s book and the film in which Tobey Maguire and Gary Stevens – as good and natural an actor as he has been for so many years an outstanding jockey – played the roles as the great underdog’s jockeys.
As they turned for home in that 1938 race, the big favourite War Emblem had drawn upsides and most of the massive crowd expected him to pull away. Instead it was Seabiscuit, who had become a much-loved symbol of the American working class in those Depression years, who gained the upper hand: courage and toughness outpointing class and evidently superior breeding.
Saturday’s Classic was virtually a re-make of the Seabiscuit film. Two horses came around the long turn between the back stretch and the home run with the favourite poised on the outside and the rest clearly irrelevant. Authentic had moved quickly from an ordinary start into an early lead from his wide position, so it was reasonable watching live to think he could be swamped when Tiz The Law, always well placed, came with his customary wide run to take his rightful place at the top of the podium.
But as with Seabiscuit, this relative underdog, third favourite at a shade over 8-1, kept going much the better for a length and a quarter success.
Going into the race, Authentic, like the favourite, had suffered only a single reverse, in his case behind Honor A P in the Santa Anita Derby, turning over an earlier result between the pair. Understandably, Honor A P edged him for second best in the Derby market, but there can be no doubting the pecking order now, as Honor A P finished five lengths behind the winner in fourth.
A smaller-than-usual field contested the race this year. Normally it’s a bun-fight to qualify for one of the 20 available stalls. This time, only 15 turned up, reflecting that there are fewer untested dreams at this stage of the season from later-developing horses than is customary. What I did notice, possibly because of the smaller field and the fact that the runners have had more racing experience than is customary, hard-luck stories seemed minimal.
Also it was one of the fastest-ever Kentucky Derbys, the winner clocking 2 minutes 0.61 seconds. Secretariat in 1973 still holds the all-time best with 1 minute 59.4 seconds in his Triple Crown year. Monarchos in 2001 has the fastest electronic time, while in 1964 Northern Dancer, the ultimate sire of sires, most significantly the direct line, from his son Sadler’s Wells through to Galileo and then Frankel and the rest, clocked an even 2 minutes.
Other fast times were Spend A Buck, 2.00.2 in 1985 and Decidedly 2.00.4 in 1962. Authentic, with only five faster than him is right up there in historical terms, certainly in front of Baffert’s previous quintet, the less attritional, more even-tempo nature of the race – on a track that was riding fast – doubtless contributing.
Many times, beaten Kentucky Derby runners avoid the Preakness entirely. This year, of the nine horses beaten by Tiz The Law in the first leg of the Triple Crown, only two – neither in the shake-up on Saturday – tried again.
It would be eminently understandable should either or both the big two miss the Preakness in four weeks’ time. A great shame too as if they did clash they would surely provide another proper shoot-out. Considering, though, how much money is on offer for the Breeders’ Cup Classic in the autumn and how easily future stallion fees can be affected by reverses, maybe it’s more likely that we’ll have to wait for a definitive verdict of the Horse of the Year - Covid19 edition!
*
While the Kentucky Derby was taking all the attention over the water, Enable was fulfilling presumably her last public duties in the UK (she still has entries on British Champions’ Day – here’s hoping) before embarking on her final act of an epic career when easily landing the odds (1-14 are hardly odds!) in the September Stakes at Kempton Park.
She was quickly into the lead under Frankie Dettori and won easily from Kirstenbosch, owned by Luca Cumani’s Fittocks Stud. Lightly-raced and on the comeback trail after an interrupted career, Kirstenbosch looks sure to win more races for the James Fanshawe stable.
Meanwhile Enable will be preparing for her ultimate quest, aiming to add a third Arc win after last year’s agonising second to Waldgeist, interestingly on the same weekend as the Preakness. Dettori has been a fitting co-respondent in the mare’s final glorious chapter along with trainer John Gosden. How typical in sport that a younger rival has come along from out of nowhere – well, Ballydoyle! - to make this possibly the toughest of all her four challenges for the famed French race that has become the true European championship.
Love stands in her way, gloriously after three authoritative and sometimes wide margin wins at Group 1 level in the 1,000 Guineas, the Oaks and the Yorkshire Oaks. I suppose there will be other challengers, but nobody loves a two-man (or woman) sporting tussle more than the viewing public. I’d love Enable to win but I don’t think Love will enable her to do so. If you see what I mean!
On an otherwise quiet weekend domestically, Haydock Park’s Group 1 race, the Betfair Sprint Cup, developed into a battle of the six-year-old geldings. The 5-2 favourite Dream Of Dreams, ridden by Oisin Murphy for the Sir Michael Stoute stable, got up in the closing stages to beat the Archie Watson-trained and Hollie Doyle-ridden 25-1 chance Glen Shiel, the pair leaving the three-year-olds Golden Horde, Art Power and Lope Y Fernandez well behind. The same went for two previous winners, The Tin Man and Hello Youmzain.
A race with rather more significance for the future was Yesterday’s Prix du Moulin de Longchamp on the first weekend since the racing roadshow decamped back from Deauville and its chewed-up terrain to the capital. Only six turned out, but it was a high-class affair. The Andre Fabre-trained Persian King (by Kingman) turned away Pinatubo by just over a length, with Circus Maximus a long way back in third but still ahead of Irish 2,000 Guineas hero Siskin who seems a shadow of the early-season version.
Persian King had been three lengths in arrears to Circus Maximus when they were third and fourth behind unbeaten Palace Pier in the Prix Jacques le Marois (also Group 1) three weeks earlier over the same trip at Deauville. This performance requires some re-alignment among the division, but it is clear that Palace Pier stands alone at the top of the mile rankings. Those three Irish fillies, Fancy Blue, Alpine Star and Peaceful, who dominated the finish of the Prix de Diane over the extended mile and a quarter at Chantilly, might prove more of a test to Palace Pier than any of yesterday’s Moulin contestants should they be given the opportunity to tackle him.
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