Stat of the Day, 20th November 2012
It was a strange performance from Looks Like Rain yesterday. She looked out of sorts and disinterested for much of the race and she dwelt at the rear of the field and Silvestre de Sousa was working overtime just to prevent her becoming detached from the pack. It wasn't really until the final furlong that she woke up and tried to make a fist of it, but by that time the race was lost. She passed four or five horses in the run-in, but still finished in 6th place, some 3 lengths or so away from making the frame.
Back to the turf today and a trip to the South East Coast for a Class 4 Handicap Chase on Good ground. Stamina may be an issue today, as the 13 runners tackle 3m 1f in the...
Trainer Sheena West doesn't send many NH runners to Folkestone, just seven in the last two years in total. However, these runners do tend to go well at this track, having scored three wins and two second place finishes from those seven contests. Backing all seven runners to a £10 stake would have yielded a profit of over £316 at SP, whilst £10 E/W backers would have made returns of over £400.
Of those seven races, only two were chase events like today's race and both were contested and won by our SotD selection: Just Josie.
Just Josie had just the two starts last term but won them both over course and distance here at Folkestone on similarly good ground to today and she is known to go well fresh: the first of those two victories came after a break of eleven months, so the fact that she's been away from the track for almost 10 months this time doesn't concern me too much. At least we know she's not overexposed! She looks a different proposition as a chaser with that 2 from 2 record after a fairly uninspiring short stint on the flat and then over hurdles. Prior to going chasing her record only read 0468 and she finished an average of 40 lengths behind the winners of those races!
The fact that she's a dual C&D winner and is still unbeaten over these fences means she's gone up in the weights this time, but I feel she's of sufficient quality to make a bold bid for the hat trick. Marc Goldstein's back on board today and he's 2 from 2 on the horse and made the frame on his only other outing over the Folkestone chase course, plus he's got a 60% strike rate for the owners of Just Josie.
The hike in weights allied to a potential fear about the lay-off is reflected in the current market (at 10.00am). I was expecting this one to be around the 5/1 to 7/1 mark, so the 10/1 BOG on offer at both Betfred and Coral looks very inviting. Thus, the play today is 0.5pts E/W on Just Josie at 10/1 BOG, but as the day progresses, you can always...