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Stat of the Day, 11th August 2020

Monday's pick was...

7.30 Chester : Power of States @ 4/1 BOG 8th at 9/2 (Raced keenly in mid-division, no real headway when switched sharply left entering final furlong) 

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

2.40 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

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Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Shesaheart @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 6, A/W Nursery for 2yo over 6f on Tapeta worth £2,782 to the winner... 

Why?...

Going to keep it short and hopefully sweet today with a filly who finished second last time out at Class 5 to a colt who had previously run in the Gr 2 Coventry at Ascot. She now drops another grade, but is burdened with top weight of 9st 12lbs off a mark (OR) of 62 here today, based on that last run.

There are differing opinions about having to carry more weight than other juveniles, but the stats tell me that since the start of 2015, top weighted horses in Wolverhampton nurseries are 29 from 126 (23% SR) for 76.2pts (+60.2% ROI) profit when carrying 9st 7lbs or more off a mark of 60-85 and these include...

  • 24/114 (21%) for 66pts (+57.9%) on races worth £2k-4k
  • 16/74 (21.6%) for 64.7pts (+87.4%) in fields of 9-11 runners
  • 15/72 (20.8%) for 60.8pts (+84.4%) at Class 6
  • 12/39 (30.8%) for 53.8pts (+138%) on handicap debut
  • 11/46 (23.9%) for 53.6pts (+116.4%) dropping down a class
  • and 5/13 (38.5%) for 23.6pts (+181.6%) during July & August...

...whilst in 9-11 runner, Class 6 contests worth £2k-4k, they are 11/43 (25.6% SR) for 59.9pts (+139.2% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Shesaheart @ 4/1 BOG as was quite widely available (inc several BOGs) at 8.15am Tuesday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 2.40 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!