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Stat of the Day, 11th March 2020

Tuesday's pick was...

3.15 Sedgefield : Roxyfet @ 9/2 BOG 2nd at 11/4 (Held up and behind, good headway on outside chasing leaders 4 out, 2nd 2 out, ridden and stayed on run-in, always held

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

1.55 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

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Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Subliminal @ 13/2 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m2f on polytrack worth £2,782 to the winner... 

Why?...

This 5 yr old gelding won this race last year and aside from that, he became of immediate interest due to his overall record which includes the following under today's conditions...

  • 3 wins and 6 places from 13 here at Lingfield
  • 3 wins and 3 places from 8 over this 1m2f trip
  • 3 wins and 3 places from 6 over course and distance
  • 2 wins and 2 places from 4 under jockey Luke Morris
  • 2 wins from 2 under Luke over C&D
  • 2 wins and a place from 5 in cheekpieces
  • 2 from 2 in cheekpieces over C&D
  • 2 wins and a place from 5 this year
  • 2 from 2 over C&D this year
  • and 2 from 2 under Luke Morris over C&D this year whilst wearing cheekpieces...

Luke Morris also does well on trainer Simon Dow's other horses, clocking up 10 winners from 47 (21.3% SR) for 17.3pts (+36.9% ROI) and here's another of my baker's dozens of relevant profitable angles...

  • 10/46 (21.7%) for 18.3pts (+39.9%) on the A/W
  • 10/45 (22.2%) for 19.3pts (+43%) on males
  • 10/45 (22.2%) for 19.3pts (+43%) in handicaps
  • 10/45 (22.2%) for 19.3pts (+43%) on Polytrack
  • 9/35 (25.7%) for 24.3pts (+69.3%) with 4-6 yr olds
  • 9/33 (27.3%) for 29.1pts (+88.3%) within 30 days of their last run
  • 9/32 (28.1%) for 28.2pts (+88.1%) in fields of 9-13 runners
  • 9/31 (29%) for 31.1pts (+100.4%) at odds of 9/4 to 11/1
  • 7/29 (24.1%) for 23.4pts (+80.6%) in races worth less than £4,000
  • 7/24 (29.2%) for 28.4pts (+118.2%) at Class 6
  • 6/23 (26.1%) for 20.3pts (+88%) here at Lingfield
  • 5/15 (33.3%) for 13.7pts (+91.2%) on those with 1-3 previous C&D wins
  • and 4/11 (36.4%) for 18.1pts (+164.1%) over trips of 1m2f to 1m6f...

...whilst Simon + Luke + 3-6 yr old male A/W (Polytrack) handicappers + 9/4 to 11/1 + 1-30 dslr = 8/13 (61.5% SR) for 45pts (+346.1% ROI) and these include 5 winners from 9 (55.6%) for 30.1pts (+334.6%) in Class 6 contests worth less than £4k here at Lingfield...

...pointing towards...a 1pt win bet on Subliminal @ 13/2 BOG as was available from Bet365, Coral & Ladbrokes amongst others at 8.10am Wednesday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 1.55 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!