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Stat of the Day, 31st July 2020

Thursday's pick was...

1.10 Goodwood : Electric Ladyland @ 9/2 BOG 4th at 11/2 (Took keen hold, tracked leaders, ridden over 1f out, faded inside final furlong) 

Friday's pick runs in the...

2.55 Pontefract :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Single @ 9/2 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 3 Flat Maiden Handicap for 3yo+ over 2m1f on Good to Firm ground worth £3,493 to the winner... 

Why?...

We start with the racecard...

As trainer Mick Channon has the C1 and C5 icons by his name and is highlighted in the Trainer Stats report and also one of my own saved angles, it makes sense to focus on his record at this venue for today's piece.

Obviously his runner here yet to win a race, but the 3 yr old filly has made the frame in five of her eight starts today and comes here to race in what I'll hopefully show are favourable conditions...

...as Mick Channon's runners here at Ponty are 17 from 72 (23.6% SR) for 72.22pts (+100.3% ROI) profit since the start of the 2015 season, including the following of relevance today...

  • 17/59 (28.8%) for 85.22pts (+144.5%) at 6-60 dslr
  • 15/52 (28.9%) for 84.35pts (+162.2%) in races worth £0-8k
  • 15/51 (29.4%) for 86.45pts (+169.5%) with 2/3 yr olds
  • 11/32 (34.4%) for 89.45pts (+279.5%) in 10-14 runner contests
  • 10/40 (25%) for 41.21pts (+103%) with female runners
  • 10/37 (27%) for 65.9pts (+178.1%) in handicaps
  • 10/32 (31.25%) for 64.17pts (+200.6%) with maiden horses
  • 9/30 (30%) for 76.69pts (+255.6%) at Class 5
  • 6/24 (25%) for 37.56pts (+156.5%) on Good to Firm
  • 6/16 (37.5%) for 9.9pts (+61.9%) when sent off in the 2/1 to 5/1 odds range
  • 4/16 (25%) for 16.31pts (+101.9%) in maiden races

...whilst his 2/3 yr olds running 10-14 runner contests worth £0-8k after 6-60 days rest are 10 from 18 (55.6% SR) for 100.13pts (+556.3% ROI) profit, including 7 from 13 (53.1%) with maidens, 5 from 7 (71.4%) with females and 3 from 4 (75% with female maidens...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Single @ 9/2 BOG as was widely available (inc at least a couple BOGs, whilst Bet365 were a standout 11/2 BOG!) at 5.50am Friday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 2.55 Pontefract

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. Please note I left for Greece on Monday 20/07 for two weeks to look at some hotels for my travel agency business and to get some R&R, so whilst I'll still be posting each day (except 04/08 when cover has been arranged), the timings may well be different to normal.