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Double Dutch, 18th January 2014
No double landed yesterday amid almost farcical situations.
I wanted Dutch Rifle as an alternative to my fancy Crowdmania in the first race, but she was withdrawn whilst I was typing, which also reduced Crowdmania's price to a borderline 5/4 BOG, but I expected her to be nailed on without DR.
Further withdrawals (including our replacement pick!) left her to run (and win!) at a 5/9 SP after Rule 4 deductions, with our advised bet running at a shade over 11/10 onto race two, where we couldn't find the winner.
Under Review finished to third and of course, the two horses ahead of him, were the ones I'd discussed as alternatives, but then overlooked!
Yesterday's results were as follows:
Crowdmania : won at 5/9 (after R4) (adv 5/4)
Spiritual Flame : WD at 6/1 (adv 5/1)
Under Review : 3rd at 5/4 (adv 3/1)
Winslow Arizona : 5th at 6/1 (adv 9/4)
Results to date:
120 winning selections from 420 = 28.57%
38 winning doubles in 113 days = 33.63%
P/L : +10.44pts (+4.66% ROI)
A couple of decent quality, small fields, heavy ground chases today:
Just five go to post for this one and I'm more than happy to leave the two double-digit odds runners alone, leaving me with a two from three situation. It's probably easier for me to discard one that it is to pick two, so I'm leaving out Rival D'Estruval. He has undoubted quality and usually goes well fresh, but at 9yrs old, he's the wrong side of his best form and failed to complete either of his runs last year.
RDE is also carrying a 7lb penalty and bears top weight here over a trip I reckon may be too sharp for him. This leaves us with my preference Benvolio who has three wins and a first fence fall from his last four outings. He's 311F over a trip just a furlong longer than this and he's two wins plus that fall from three attempts on heavy or soft ground. All of which makes him a good bet at 11/8 BOG (BetVictor & SkyBet).
Trustan Times (3/1 BOG generally) is the backup plan, If he can transfer his excellent hurdles form to the larger obstacles, he should give a very good account of himself here. He was beaten by just over a length here in a grade 2 hurdle earlier in the year off a mark of 150 and also won a grade 3 contest here in November 2012. Although he has been hurdling of late, this isn't his introduction to chasing, he already has a record of 1233: all at 2m4f to 2m6f.
I'm very keen on the chances of Sire de Grugy here, but so is half of the country, hence his almost prohibitive odds of 6/4 BOG. But he's 3 from 3 over this trip, he has won four times and been placed four times at this level and has won 7 (plus 2 runner-up finishes) from his last 10 outings. His ability to cope with the underfoot conditions won't be an issue either with 4 wins and a 2nd from six efforts over described as soft or heavy.
Somersby is a consistent and steady if not spectacular sort, who unfortunately often finds one too good for him, as should be the case here. He has a decent record here at Ascot (32214) and has run well in the mud (2 wins and 2 places from 5 on Soft/Heavy). He has two wins and two places from his four efforts at this trip (overall 6/18 at 2m1.5f or shorter) and performs best in these smaller fields. I don't expect him to win, but if SDG doesn't, then he might well do the business for us here at a generally available 7/2 BOG.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Benvolio / Sire de Grugy @ 4.94/1 (BetVictor 11/8 & 6/4)
Benvolio / Somersby @ 10.69/1 (BetVictor 11/8 & 7/2)
Trustan Times / Sire de Grugy @ 9/1 (BetVictor 3/1 & 6/4 )
Trustan Times / Somersby @ 17/1 (generally 3/1 & 7/2)
If, like me, you have been looking forward to Sprinter Sacre making his seasonal reappearance on Saturday in the Tingle Creek Chase, you’ll be hoping that there is nothing serious in the results of the tracheal wash carried out on him yesterday. Read more
Double Dutch, 26th October 2013
As expected First In The Queue took the opener yesterday, despite conceding between 9 and 20 lbs to his rivals.
Both he and the runner-up hit the last hurdle, but our selection stayed on strongest to score by half a length. He was sent off at 10/1, but we'd got on early at 11/10, so we'd 1.05pts on each of our selections in race 2, 10 minutes later.
There, Musical Comedy won for us for the second successive week and attracted some support from our early 2/1 advice and was eventually sent off as the 11/8 fav.
As in race 1, our 2nd pick finished third, so no forecasts/exactas yesterday, but we did pick up another winning double at 6.30 off two horses whose SPs combined to a double of 4.53.
This meant by taking the early BOG odds on offer, we managed to make an extra 50% above SP, once again highlighting the necessity to have accounts with all the BOG bookmakers.
I know that setting up new accounts can be a tiresome process, but here at Geegeez, we've got a special software tool which takes the hard (and dull) work out of opening accounts, and makes it easy. You fill out a single form, and our software does the rest, opening up to twelve accounts for you with all the major bookmakers.
Yesterday's results were as follows:
First In The Queue: won at 11/10 (SP 10/11)
Ittirad: 3rd at 5/2
Musical Comedy: won at 2/1 (SP 11/8)
Dutch S: 3rd at 4/1
Trial to date:
57 winning selections from 183 = 31.15%
17 winning doubles in 51 days = 33.33%
P/L : +1.55pts (+1.55% ROI)
We're still just above the break even line, which in itself is a fantastic achievement compared with where we were a month ago, but we need to press on further and hopefully we'll boost the bank with these today...
Where I find it hard to believe the winner won't come from the top two in the market and I expect the 11/8 favourite Al Alfa to score reasonably comfortably at the expense of Arthurs Pass, who is best priced at 7/2.
Al Alfa won two races ago and looked set to repeat the feat last time at Wincanton nine days ago. Unfortunately he slipped on landing and unseated his rider, but there was no actual jumping error involved. He was travelling really well that day and was well set to win. he runs off the same mark today and should gain some compensation here.
Arthurs Pass is no mug either, having notched a hat trick at the start of the year and ran really well in defeat when finishing third at Cheltenham last time out in April. He might well need a run, though, after a six month break and his fitness will have to be taken on trust, otherwise I feel he'd be shorter in the market today.
Just six runners go to post for this one, but I'm happy to disregard the bottom half of the market and focus on Rebel Rebellion, Sire de Grugy and Majala who are currently best favoured in the market.
The odd one out for me in this ménage à trois today is going to be the 2/1 favourite Rebel Rebellion.
I prefer Sire de Grugy of the three, a classy horse who is 121411 over the larger obstacles and has been running in good company at a higher level than this. If he's anywhere near the level he showed last time out at Sandown when beating Finians Rainbow and several of the runners in today's Old Roan Chase (3.05 Aintree), then he's going to be hard to beat at a reasonable price of 100/30 with Coral.
Majala, however, could well push him all the way. He scored a hat trick of wins on soft/heavy ground last winter/spring and although well beaten when stepping up in class at Cheltenham in March (6th place in the Arkle), he got back to winning ways by landing a hurdle event at Auteuil. If he's on song today and goes well fresh, he could land a bit of a coup at 7/2 (William Hill).
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Al Alfa / Sire de Grugy @ 10.31 with Coral
Al Alfa / Majala @ 10.31 with BetVictor
Arthurs Pass / Sire de Grugy @ 18.77 with Coral
Arthurs Pass / Majala @ 19.50 with BetVictor and William Hill