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Stat of the Day, 16th July 2020

Wednesday's pick was...

6.45 Kempton : Emirates Knight @ 4/1 BOG 4th at 3/1 (Led 1f, tracked leaders, ridden to lead again over 1f out, headed entering final furlong, kept on one pace)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

1.00 Hamilton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

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Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Somewhere Secret @ 5/2 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 6, Flat handicap for 3yo+ over 5f on Good ground worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

This 6 yr old gelding is running here off a mark 3lbs lower than his last winning effort and races 2lb lower than he would be next week, having run really well in defeat LTO when second (beaten by half a length) at Ayr with the re-opposing Lydiate Lady and Northern Society more than three lengths further behind just ten days ago.

The fact he runs again so quickly after that good run is what flagged him up to me last night, as trainer Michael Mullineaux's Flat handicappers turned back out less than three weeks after a top 3 finish LTO are 13 from 66 (19.7% SR) for 80.65pts (+122.2% ROI) since the start of the 2015 campaign and these include of relevance today...

  • 13/59 (22%) for 87.65pts (+148.6%) during June to September
  • 10/48 (20.8%) for 74.3pts (+154.8%) in races worth less than £4k
  • 10/42 (23.8%) for 46.74pts (+111.3%) at the same class as LTO
  • 8/36 (22.2%) for 37.18pts (+103.3%) at Class 6
  • 7/32 (21.9%) for 54.81pts (+171.3%) in 6-9 runner contests
  • 5/22 (22.7%) for 48.99pts (+222.7%) on good ground
  • and 3 from 9 (33.3%) for 20.58pts (+228.7%) for today's runner, Somewhere Secret...

...whilst Class 6 runners competing for less than £4k during June-September at the same class as LTO are 6 from 23 (26.1% SR) for 24.62pts (+107% ROI), including 3 from 9 (33.3%) for 5.92pts (+65.8%) since the start of last season...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Somewhere Secret @ 5/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.15am Thursday with some 11/4 non-BOG until later in places, but as always please check your BOG status (*some go BOG later)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 1.00 Hamilton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!