Tag Archive for: Songkran horse

Stat of the Day, 15th August 2020

Friday's pick was...

3.40 Chester : Bossipop @ 7/2 BOG 4th at 9/2 (Raced wide in touch, pushed along over 1f out, ridden and ran on towards finish, not reach leaders) 

Saturday's pick runs in the...

5.55 Newbury :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Songkran @ 4/1 or 7/2 BOG

...in a 13-runner, Class 4, Amateur Jockeys Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m4f on Good To Soft, ground worth £4,523 to the winner...

Why?...

Starting with the racecard and trainer snippets...

and then the Shortlist report gives us three angles of attack today...

So let's start with horse, who is clearly in prime form and seeks a fifth win on the bounce, the Shortlist says he's good at this class, distance and field size, so let's look at his numbers in other areas...

To date, Songkran is 5/12 (41.7% SR) for 7.86pts (+65.5% ROI) and these include of relevance today...

  • 5/9 (55.6%) for 10.86pts (+120.6%) at sub-5/1 odds
  • 5/8 (62.5%) for 11.86pts (+148.2%) in races worth less than £5k
  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 5.38pts (+59.8%) on the Flat
  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 5.38pts (+59.8%) in handicaps
  • 4/7 (57.1%) for 7.38pts (+105.5%) going left handed
  • 4/6 (66.6%) for 8.38pts (+139.7%) after less than 18 days rest
  • 4/5 (80%) for 9.38pts (+187.7%) for trainer George Boughey
  • 4/5 (80%) for 9.38pts (+187.7%) this year
  • and 3/4 (75%) for 8.43pts (+210.8%) after a win LTO

And now to the trainer, George Boughey, who has the 14 & 30 icons next to his name, suggesting he's got his yard in decent nick. Closer inspection of his strike rates show a consistent 24% to 26% ratio at 7, 14, 30, 60, 90 and 180 day checkpoints, so his recent form is no flash in the pan.

George might not be as high profile as some other trainers, but he's one to keep an eye on, I think as his decent strike rates have yielded good profits, as he is 16 from 54 (29.6% SR) for 75.8pts (+140.4% ROI) this year at an A/E of 1.58 and an IV above 2.60, including of note today...

  • 12/36 (33.3%) for 38.1pts (+105.8%) with male runners
  • 12/34 (35.3%) for 25.5pts (+75%) at 6-45 dslr
  • 11/35 (31.4%) for 32pts (+91.5%) in handicaps
  • 8/25 (32%) for 41.5pts (+165.9%) on the Flat (but not shabby on the A/W either)
  • 7/13 (53.9%) for 17.6pts (+135.2%) from LTO winners
  • 6/13 (46.2%) for 21.8pts (+168%) with 4 yr olds
  • 4/13 (30.8%) for 19.7pts (+151.5%) in 12-14 runner contests
  • 2/7 (28.6%) for 3pts (+43.4%) so far this month
  • and 1/2 (50%) for 0.12pts (+6%) here at Newbury...

...whilst male handicappers at 6-30 dslr are 8 from 16 (50% SR) for 24.1pts (+150.5% ROI) including 5/7 (71.4%) for 9.5pts (+135.8%) on the Flat...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Songkran @ 4/1 or 7/2 BOG as was available at 8.55am Saturday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 5.55 Newbury

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!