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Stat of the Day, 12th July 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 12th July 2013

Close but no cigar yesterday, as we were narrowly denied a win in the July Stakes. Mickael Barzalona looked set to improve upon his already impressive Newmarket stats with a well-timed burst for the line in a pretty tight finish (only a length separated the first four home!).

Unfortunately nobody had spotted the eventual winner Anjaal fling down the outside to land the race at 14/1 thanks to another great finish by Paul Hanagan (rider of our own winner on Wednesday!)

The end result was a runner-up berth of our selection at 7/2 with the positives being that we beat the SP by taking 9/2 BOG, we identified a weak favourite, which some of you will have laid (I did!) and we've found a horse capable of winning decent races in the future.

Moral victories don't enhance the bank account, though! So we need to try again, a quest which now takes us to the...

6.10 Chepstow

Bernard Llewellyn is one of those shrewd trainers who is very adept in his usage of jockeys with a valuable 5lb claim, which can make so much difference to a race.

Since 2010, he has managed to saddle up 23 winners ridden by 5lb claimers from 153 races. This 15% strike rate is almost double the sport's average and has helped to bring in profits of 84.9pts, a return over stakes invested of some 55.5%.

It's pretty clear to see that Bernard wants to win this race this year, as he's got three entries, tow of which are ridden by 5lb claiming jockeys. Of the two, Captain Sharpe seems quite badly out of form at present, which leaves us with Taste The Wine.

Taste The Wine likes it here at Chepstow with three of his six turf wins to date coming at the Monmouthshire venue (2/4 on flat and 1/2 NH). His overall record here reads as three wins and three further places from eleven starts for 20.2pts profits and over today's course and distance, he has finished 105125 for a 33.3% strike rate and 16.8pts (+280%) profit.

He's a good dual code horse and comes here fit from a very good third place over hurdles at Newton Abbot three weeks ago, so he'll be ready for this one. He last ran on the flat 33 days ago at Nottingham, when he ran a decent race to finish second and he comes here to run off a mark a pound lower today.

The racecard for this contest is here.

He's in good nick and looks (on paper, at least!) the best on show in what is a fairly weak contest. The very talented Oisin Murphy on board Silver Samba is likely to be the favourite and is most likely to be the big danger to our selection, but I'm happy to take my 1pt bet on Taste The Wine at 3/1 BOG with Stan James, but for your preferred bookie...

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Stat of the Day, 11th July 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 11th July 2013

Qawaafy was a comfortable winner yesterday for us at 11/4, a good half point shorter than the 9/4 SP and she was given a lovely ride by the experienced Paul Hanagan. After being bumped at the start, she quickly regained composure and travelled best of all the runners throughout.

Paul saved his run for the line until inside the final furlong and once he asked the horse to go, the race was won. She was pulling further clear with every stride and looked impressive at the finish.

SotD is off to HQ today for the July Stakes, where over £45,000 awaits the winner of this 11-runner, Group 2 contest on good to firm ground. The trip is six furlongs for the...

2.10 Newmarket

Mickael Barzalona has four rides here at Newmarket today: a course on which he tends to excel. To date he has ridden 23 winners here from 103 attempts, a strike rate of 22.6% for profits of 55.7pts at betfair SP, that's a 54% return on your money. When we consider just those horses in the Evens to 6/1 odds range, he then has a winning record of 1 in 3 (17 from 51) and the ROI jumps up to a very impressive 69.3%, thanks to profits of 35.4pts.

Of his four rides here today, two of them will invariably go off at longer prices, whilst Fratellino might just scrape in (currently 13/2 in the 5.00 race), leaving us with Figure of Speech, who is running only his second ever race today, but he was very impressive indeed when winning on debut here over course and distance just three weeks ago.

It's also worth pointing out that horses that won here over course and distance last time go on to win again in 22% of races in the last three seasons: 11 wins from 50 for 24pts profit. The yard is in really good nick with 7 winners from 22 in the last week alone and although this represents a tougher task than his debut, the manner of his win means he must be respected.

The presence of Sir John Hawkins (3rd in the Coventry Stakes at Ascot) will inevitably skew the betting somewhat and may afford us some value in our selection and I'm still not entirely convinced that the favourite is as good as his breeding suggests he might be and he's there for the taking today. If he shows any signs of the immaturity he showed at Ascot, we've a very good chance of turning him over at a decent price.

The racecard for this contest is here.

As expected, the favourite is quite short (around 2/1) for this one, which means we can stake our 1pt win bet on Figure of Speech at relatively generous odds of 9/2 BOG with Stan James (this price is also on offer at Ladbrokes), so for your preferred bookie...

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Stat of the Day, 10th July 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 10th July 2013

On the face of things, a 9/4 favourite finishing 3rd of 7 runners and some twelve and a half lengths behind the winner of a five furlong race doesn't sound very good. However, Sandsman's Girl performed better than the bare facts would suggest.

The truth is that the winner and the one I highlighted as the danger, Mecca's Angel, absolutely flew from the stalls and blitzed it. Our selection ran well enough and looked like she was staying on at the end. We didn't get the win, but taking 7/2 about a 9/4 favourite is always good news.

We're off to the seaside today for a fillies handicap. We've got six runners tackling this Class 5 contest over nine furlongs, where the going is likely to be good to firm for the...

3.40 Yarmouth

Roger Varian's horses are running pretty well at present and in the last fortnight alone, half of his twenty-eight runners have been placed, of which seven were winners.

He also has a very good record here at Yarmouth with a strike rate fast approaching 25%, courtesy of 8 winners from 33. If we disregard his Yarmouth runners priced over 4/1, we find 8 winners and 4 further placed horses from 15 runners. This 53.33% strike rate is very appealing to me and has generated 9.5pts profit to boot, a return of 63.3% over stakes.

If we look at his record in handicap races here, that record with horses priced 4/1 or under reads five winners and two placers from eight for profits of 8.31pts.

Roger runs three horses here today, of which two run in handicaps. Panettone looks to have a chance at 5/1 in the 3.10 race, but my focus today is on Qawaafy, a lightly raced three-year old who has improved for each of her four runs to date with finishes of 5442 in maidens so far.

Today represents her handicap debut and her trainer has a 21.5% strike rate with handicap debutants and the yard is 6/22 this season. The strike rate for their handicaps debutants priced at 4/1 or under is a very decent 25.6%.

Qawaafy is the daughter of Eswarah who won the Oaks back in 2005 and her recent second placed finish at Haydock over a mile on ground slightly softer than the official good declaration suggested that she'd relish both a slight step up in trip (one furlong more today) and some faster ground, which she'll certainly get today. One would expect that she'll get further in time too.

An opening mark of 70 doesn't look too onerous based on her previous performances and the booking of Paul Hanagan is a positive move for me, as Paul has won 14 of his last 50 handicap rides here.

The racecard for this contest is here.

When I started the write-up, Qawaafy was available at 3/1, but that seems to have already gone, so the call is now a 1pt win bet at 11/4 BOG. I've used Paddy Power today, but a whole host of firms are matching that price, so why not...

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Stat of the Day, 9th July 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 9th July 2013

A narrow defeat for Bondesire yesterday, finishing 3rd at odds of 7/2, half a point longer than our early BOG price. She showed yet again how well David O'Meara's horses are running at the moment, as she wasn't disgraced in going down by a length and a half to the impressive Pipers Note who was landing back to back Course and Distance wins.

A/W action this evening and a spin around the Nottinghamshire Fibresand for a five furlong, Class 6 Nursery (2yo) contest, where we expect seven runners to line up for the...

6.05 Southwell

James Given seems to have a knack of getting his horses to fire first time on the All-Weather. In the last couple of years, he has introduced 69 runners to a new A/W track and 22 of them have gone on to win. This excellent 31.9% strike rate has produced profit figures of 129.1pts, an ROI of some 187.1%.

Of those 69 runners, 19 were making their first appearance here at Southwell and 8 of those 19 were winners too. That's a remarkable 42.1% succes, yielding a huge return on stakes of almost 340% via 64.3pts profits.

James has just one runner here at Southwell tonight in the form of the 2 yr old filly Sandsman's Girl, who becomes our pick for the day.

Today is her first ever race here at Southwell and only her fourth start in total. After finishing 4th on debut at Wolverhampton, she shed her maiden tag a fortnight later with victory at Redcar. Both of those races were over today's minimum trip at Class 5 level and she seemed to stay on well on both occasions. The form of her Redcar win looks to be playing out well as both the second and third placed horses won on their next starts.

Today is a drop down in Class from both of those decent runs and a marked drop in class from her last outing, the Queen Mary Stakes at Ascot three weeks ago.

Predictably outclassed that day, she finished back in 20th of the 23 runners at 100/1, but her mere presence there that day tends to suggest the yard think something of her and that defeat was no disgrace and is best left out of today's considerations as she makes her handicap debut.

As today is indeed her handicap debut, it's interesting (to me, anyway!) to note that James Given's record with horses making their handicap debut on All-Weather tracks reads five winners from twelve over the last couple of years, a 41.67% strike rate giving way to profits of 36.25pts (+302.1% ROI) with horses priced below 12/1. That record is 2 winners from 3 for 17pts profit here at Southwell!

The racecard for this contest is here.

Mecca's Angel looks to be the one to beat today, but I think the 7/2 BOG on offer for Sandsman's Girl is a decent enough price, so it's a 1pt win bet at those odds. That price is quite widely available and I've got on with bet365 this morning, but for your pick of the bookies...

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Stat of the Day Update, 1st to 7th July 2013

Stat of the Day : Update

Stat of the Day : Update

Stat of the Day Update: 01/07/13 to 07/07/13

It was a funny old week at SotD which started off with a good winner at 11/2 which was followed by a couple of close-run runner-up finishes, before three disappointingly poor shows later in the week.

Fortunately the week was rounded off as it had started, with a well backed winner. I really liked the chances offered by Able Master on Sunday, but I felt that the 7/1 I was able to get had enough room for a safety first E/W approach.

As it happened, it was so well backed that the SP was 3/1 and despite us going E/W, the profit from our 1pt stake was still 46% above that SP, as we made 4.38pts from the race.

Selections & Results: 01/07/13 to 07/07/13

01/07: 5.30 Pontefract: Talent Scout (advised 11/2 BOG) : won at 7/2
02/07: 3.45 Brighton: Beacon Lady (advised 5/2 BOG) : 2nd at 6/4
03/07: 7.50 Kempton: Taleteller (advised 11/4 BOG) : 2nd at 4/1
04/07: 4.10 Yarmouth: Freeport (advised 9/2 BOG) : unplaced at 5/2
05/07: 4.10 Doncaster: Controversy (advised 11/2 BOG) : unplaced at 7/1
06/07: 4.35 Leicester: Sky Garden(advised 5/1 BOG) : unplaced at 7/1
07/07: 4.30 Ayr: Able Master (advised 7/1 E/W BOG) : won at 3/1

01/07 to 07/07:
2 winning bets from 7
P/L: +4.88pts

July:
2 winners from 7 = 28.57% S.R
P/L: +4.88pts
POI = +69.71%

Overall:
160 winners from 557 = 28.73% S.R
P/L: +96.00pts
POI: +17.24%
plus a 12pt profit from 1 forecast => +108.00pts from a 558pt outlay = +19.35% POI

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.

Stat of the Day, 8th July 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 8th July 2013

OK, so we now know that Able Master stays the mile as Danny Tudhope gave him a great ride yesterday. He hit the front early, made all and just about stayed on to win by a half-length. Hindsight is a wonderful thing and I now obviously wished I hadn't edged my bets by taking the E/W option. Mind you, the 7/1 E/W bet still paid out at 4.38/1 overall, considerably better than the 3/1 SP recorded after the race itself.

That made for a good end to the week and we hope to start the new week in a similar vein as we head back to Yorkshire for some evening sunshine (hopefully!). I've gone for a decent looking Class 3 Handicap on good to firm ground (good in places), where eight runners are scheduled to tackle the six furlongs in pursuit of a decent pot (over £7,500 for the winner) in the...

8.20 Ripon

I wrote yesterday about David O'Meara's horses being in good form and yesterday's SotD winner improved his record for the month to eight winners and five placed from twenty-eight runners and it will hopefully pay to side with him again today.

David has quite a number of runners out today (two up at Ayr and four here at Ripon), but the one I'm keen on here is Bondesire, who will seek to improve upon Mr O'Meara's record with course and distance winners looking for back to back victories.

Since the start of the 2011 season, David O'Meara has run 38 course and distance runners back at the scene of their C&D win after winning last time out anywhere at all. 10 of these 38 have won their race on their return to that track with seven others making the frame. The 26.3% strike rate has generated profits of 15.3 pts, a return of over 40% ROI (2/4 at Ripon for +18.8pts!)

Furthermore all previous C&D winners, regardless of trainer, returning to Ripon on the back of a win last time out have a 21.4% strike rate and an ROI of over 55% in the last three years.

Bondesire ticks both boxes today as she bids to complete a hat-trick inside five weeks. She shed her maiden tag with her C&D win here on June 4th, which she followed up with a win at Newcastle over the shorter 5f trip just 10 days ago. She seemed to have plenty in the tank on both occasions finishing strongly in each race.

Just like yesterday's selection, Bondesire likes to race prominently and if allowed to dictate affairs, she'll prove very hard to pass/beat. I'm pleased to see Paul Hanagan on board this evening, as he seem a pretty good judge of pace when riding from the front, a difficult skill to master, but he'll be aided by the opportunity to grab the rails from stall 6. Our mount is raised 4lbs for her win last time out, but I fancy her to still be too quick for the rest of them tonight.

The racecard for this contest is here.

A quick check of the market shows she's currently available as high as 3/1 BOG in places, so that's the advised 1pt win bet today.I've gone with BetVictor to reinvest some of yesterday's winnings, but at the time of press both bet365 and Ladbrokes were matching that, so I suggest that you...

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Stat of the Day, 7th July 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 7th July 2013

No joy with Sky Garden yesterday, as she was held up for a run but failed to offer anything when asked for an effort. The fact that she drifted from our 5/1 out to an SP of 7/1 shows the lack of faith in her, a lack of faith which was ultimately proven correct.

Off to Scotland today for a Class 3 Handicap over a mile. We're expecting seven runners to compete on good ground (firmer in places) for the...

4.30 Ayr

David O'Meara's horses seem to be flying at the moment with seven winners and five others placed from just twenty-seven runners this month alone. So, when I see him sending out just one runner to a track he does well at, I'm very interested.

In the last thirteen months, seven of David's eighteen runners here have gone on to win: this 38.9% strike rate has yielded profits of 26pts to date, a return of  almost 145% over stakes invested.

As I mentioned above, David has just one runner today: Able Master.

Able Master won two fast ground 7f contests last summer, one here at Ayr and one at Newcastle and he has a record of one win and three second placed finishes from his last seven races. There are some legitimate concerns about his ability to stay the extra furlong, but the yard seem to feel that this is the right trip for him to progress and I'm fairly sure that if his stamina holds out, he'll have enough speed to be involved in the final reckoning.

The racecard for this contest is here.

The doubts about him getting the extra furlong have become apparent when we look at the market, where the best price is currently the 7/1 BOG with BetVictor. It's a price I'm happy to take, but it's the safety first E/W approach today for me. As usual, I strongly recommend that you...

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Stat of the Day, 6th July 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 5th July 2013

I'm running late today, as my Hay Fever kicks into overdrive, so I'll be keeping this brief! Controversy wasn't great yesterday, looking like he'd run out of steam with still a good furlong or so to run. He eventually finished 4th, the best part of 8 lengths behind the eventual winner.

A nine-runner, Class 5 Maiden over seven furlongs on Good to Firm ground now awaits us in the...

4.35 Leicester

William Haggas has a decent record in non-handicap races here at Leicester and in the last two years alone has saddled up four winners from nine and these were priced at reasonable odds, returning some 23.17pts profit.

Today's contest is a maiden, where his record over the last three years here at Leicester is five wins from fourteen (35.7%) for a gain of 20.98pts, an ROI of  almost 150%.

Mr Haggas runs three horses here at Leicester today, but just one in a non-handicap/maiden and that's the consistent Sky Garden.

Despite still being a maiden after five starts, Sky Garden has been knocking on the door (finishing 32233) and is expected/hoped that both the application of blinkers and the step up in trip will be the catalyst for her first victory. There may be some doubts as to whether she'll get the trip first time out, but if she does, she certainly has the speed needed to close the race out.

The racecard for this contest is here.

The new conditions she faces in a bid to shed her maiden tag have created a little uncertainty in the market and the 5/1 BOG that I've gladly taken from Paddy Power is longer than I expected to get this morning. I'd have expected a bet in the 4/1 region to be honest. Non-BOG bettors can actually get 11/2 with SkyBet too, so why not...

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Stat of the Day, 5th July 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 5th July 2013

Freeport was well beaten yesterday, as he finished 4th of the 6 runners in a race won by the 14/1 bottom weight. Our runner was very one paced and finished the thick end of seven lengths off the winner who just held on to beat the favourite by a neck.

As Sod's Law tends to dictate, however, the other Brian Meehan runner I liked, Great Hall, was a 13/2 winner at haydock, so hopefully some of you got on that.

Yorkshire is today's port of call and more specifically a Class 4 Fillies Handicap over a mile and a half. The going is set to be good to firm and I expect eight runners to line up for the...

4.10 Doncaster

Matt (Mr Geegeez himself) told me a good while ago to look out for 3 yr olds competing in these open age handicaps, as the sliding weight for age allowance especially in races on 12 furlongs or more gives the 3 yr olds a better chance than they would normally have.

Obviously with any angle like this, some trainers are better than others at exploiting this and one such trainer is an old friend of SotD: Saeed Bin Suroor.

Last season, he had ten such runners, but if we disregard the two that ran at odds of 12/1 and 16/1 respectively (ie horses we wouldn't put up for SotD) we see he had a record of four wins and a place from just eight runners. It's admittedly a small sample size, but a 50% strike rate that generated an ROI of over 138% via 11.05pts profit cannot be ignored.

As is our general approach here, Saeed has just one such horse running today: Controversy.

Controversy is a very lightly raced filly and today will be only her third start after she broke her maiden tag in a dead heat at Kempton last time out when finishing strongly over ten furlongs. She's expected to cope with the step up to a mile and a half today, with her being a half-sister to Lawspeaker, a winner of three listed races at this trip.

Today represents her first outing in a handicap contest and Saeed Bin Suroor's record with handicap debutants is taken as further reinforcement of the selection today. He has been constantly successful at getting horses to win on handicap debut, especially when they are fancied in the market.

Since 2008, he has saddled up 28 such winners from 74 runners priced between evens and 6/1. This excellent 37.84% strike rate has yielded some 52.9pts profit, an ROI of  71.5% and the more cautious of you out there should also note that 57% of these runners have made the frame for E/W returns of 43.8pts (+29.6% ROI).

The racecard for this contest is here.

The best price for Controversy at the moment is 11/2 BOG. I've had a 1pt win bet with BetVictor, but I should point out that both Bet365 and William Hill are matching those odds, so I suggest that you...

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Stat of the Day, 4th July 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 4th July 2013

We had to settle for second best again yesterday, as Taleteller was beaten by a fast finishing 20/1 shot! Our selection had broken well from the far outside stall to get across and lead around the turn, but was headed by a runner to her right 2f out. She battled back gamely to regain the lead, but was eventually beaten by one coming up the inside.

She wasn't as strong in the market as I'd expected though (SP was 4/1 from our advised 11/4), but she was very close to proving them wrong. As an aside, the other runner I mentioned yesterday (Respect Me) was also 2nd at 4/1.

We're heading as far East as you can go today, for a tea time trip to the seaside, where a Class 4 handicap race over nine furlongs awaits us. A small-ish field tonight, as just seven runners are set to contest the...

4.10 Yarmouth

The first name that comes to my mind when I look for a selection at Yarmouth is Brian Meehan. Over the last twelve months, his runners have performed exceptionally well here. He doesn't send too many, but those that come here, come here to win as a record of 151111 over the last year demonstrates. His runners are generally quite well backed, but those five winners from six have still returned healthy profits of over twelve points and we look to extend that sequence today.

Just the one runner here for Brian in the form of Freeport, although he does run one at Epsom and a couple at Haydock, where I like the look of Great Hall as a possible E/W bet.

Freeport had a decent and consistent season as a 2 yr old, despite not managing to shed his maiden tag, finishing in third place on three successive occasions between June and August last year. He was then rested until his seasonal reappearance at Windsor at the end of May over a trip just half a furlong shorter than today, before running really well in defeat at Doncaster last time out.

He was only beaten by a neck by Kohlaan at this level of race (Class 4) and he was staying on well at the end and would most likely have won if the race was over today's trip of an extra furlong.

His breeding and the way he finished last time out suggest he'll get today's trip and he has only got up 1lb in the weights on the back of that Doncaster run, so he's still quite favourably treated and any repeat of that last outing should see him on the premises again this afternoon.

The racecard for this contest is here.

I'd expect the favourite Odeliz to be well backed today, leaving the door open for our selection to be backed at a decent price, so I'm happy to place a 1pt win bet on Freeport at 9/2 BOG with BetVictor, whilst 4/1 seems to be the norm elsewhere. However, I'd advise that you...

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Stat of the Day, 3rd July 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 3rd July 2013

It was the runner-up slot for us yesterday, I'm afraid. The very well-backed Beacon Lady ( we took 5/2 , she opened on course at the same price and was eventually sent off at 6/4 ) was given what looked like too much to do late on for my liking. She was still in last place with just over a furlong to run and by the time she got towards the head of the pack, the eventual winner had already got first run and defeated our selection by a length and a half.

All-weather action this evening and the heady heights of a Class 5 Maiden Fillies' Stakes. The trip is seven furlongs for the eleven runners set to contest the...

7.50 Kempton

Saeed Bin Suroor is one of the sport's better trainers at getting horses to improve on their second run, especially if the horse was unplaced (but not beaten heavily, of course!) on debut. Since the start of the 2011 season, he has run 41 such horses with a win strike rate of over 26.8%, courtesy of 11 winners.

It is worth noting, that if the market likes these horses, then they generally do very well. All 11 of those winners were priced between evens and 6/1 (our normal SotD parameters) from just 29 runners: this strike rate of 37.9% has yielded just over 13pts profit, a return of almost 45% over stakes invested.

Today's selection that fits that bill is Taleteller, a 2 yr old who finished 7th of 9 on debut at Haydock three weeks ago, but despite her lowly finishing position, she was only beaten by six lengths in a race where only 4.5 lengths separated 2nd from 9th of all 9 runners, so it was a fairly close run affair that day and she certainly wasn't disgraced.

This is, obviously, her first visit to Kempton, a track where her trainer excels with a 1 in 3 strike rate over the years and he is 3/7 this season (full record 1221717) alone and the yard is very adept at getting horses to fire on their race on this surface.

Since 2011, 26 of the yard's 72 runners appearing here at Kempton on the A/W for the very first time have gone on to win. This 36.1% strike rate has given rise to profits of 33.6pts, a return of almost 47% and when we narrow our scope down to runners priced below 6/1, we find 25 winners from 53 with 43pts (81% ROI) profit coming from that 47.2% strike rate.

Incidentally, if this first crack at Kempton is the horse's 2nd race ever, the record reads 7/11 for 11pts profit.

The racecard for this contest is here.

With all this in mind, I fully expect Taleteller to improve for the experience of having had a run and the fact that she'll be near to the head of the market, if not the actual favourite, doesn't deter me at all. This is a race where the fancied horses have done well in the past and at 11/4 BOG with William Hill, I fancy our chances of improving upon yesterday's result. At the time I wrote this, I only had prices from 2 firms, so it might be as well to...

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PS The yard also has Respect Me running in the 7.20 race, making his first Kempton start and looks to have a decent chance at odds of around 7/2.

 

Stat of the Day, 2nd July 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 2nd July 2013

A great start to July as our 11/2 shot Talent Scout just about got home after being well backed and sent off as the 7/2 favourite. Conceding weight all round and bidding for a hat trick, he was boldly ridden by Gemma Tutty whose decision to strike out up front and make all was justified as she managed to hold off the fast finishing Lord Franklin by a neck.

Jockeys can often be criticised for making poor judgement calls regarding the pace of a race, but not this time, I'm happy to go on record to say that Gemma Tutty was fantastic yesterday and I'm hoping that one of her fellow lady jockeys can repeat the feat today in the...

3.45 Brighton

The lady jockey in question here at Brighton is Nicole Nordblad whose figures here at this track are extraordinary to say the least. She has won five of her six races here to date and the only blot on the form line was a 2nd placed finish behind Highlife Dancer who then won his following race too. So, she has a record of 111121 here with those five winners producing a fantastic 69.73pts profit at betfair SP (+1162%).

Just the one ride for Nicole today: Beacon Lady, a filly who is also developing into a Brighton specialist with a course record of 12021, generating 19.14pts profit from those five runs: a return of almost 383% over stakes invested.

Nicole has ridden this horse on four previous occasions and has won twice and runner-up once (121 here at Brighton, with the unplaced effort coming at Chepstow). Beacon Lady is raised 6lbs for her recent exploits, but her form, her liking for the track, her partnership with the jockey who has great record here and the drop in trip (which may slightly negate the weight rise) still give me encouragement for this one today.

The racecard for this contest is here.

She's highly likely to go off as favourite and I wouldn't be surprised if she doesn't run at 2/1 or shorter, so I'm happy enough to place my 1pt bet on Beacon Lady at 5/2 BOG this morning. This price is widely available (I'm on with BetVictor), but she was 11/4 when I started writing this piece, so I'd advise you to...

Click here for the latest betting on the 3.45 Brighton

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Stat of the Day Update, 24th to 30th June 2013

Stat of the Day : Update

Stat of the Day : Update

Stat of the Day Update: 24/06/13 to 30/06/13

It was what can only be described as a terrible week for SotD and its followers, as neither myself nor Matt (who had to step in whilst I had tech issues!) could even get a runner to make the places. Six unplaced runners and one that shed its rider quite bizarrely on the flat meant a total loss on the week and it also blew away any chance of making June a profitable month. The only bright spot from the week was that five of our runners shortened dramatically in price, meaning we did at least get some value from the selections.

Selections & Results: 24/06/13 to 30/06/13

24/06: 7.50 Thirsk: Zarosa (advised 4/1 BOG) : unplaced at 5/2
25/06: 5.15 Brighton: The Mongoose (advised 6/1 BOG) : unplaced at 8/1
26/06: 7.20 Kempton: Anglophile (advised 7/2 BOG) : unplaced at 11/4
27/06: 8.50 Hamilton: Barkston Ash (advised 6/1 E/W BOG) : unplaced at 4/1
28/06: 6.50 Chester: King Torus (advised 7/1 E/W BOG) : unplaced at 12/1
29/06: 4.35 Newmarket: Squire (advised 9/1 E/W BOG) : unplaced at 7/2
30/06: 4.40 Salisbury: Intermath (advised 9/2 BOG) : unseated rider at 100/30

24/06 to 30/06:
0 winning bets from 7
P/L: -7.00pts

June:
5 winners from 29 = 17.24% S.R
P/L: -8.00pts
POI = -27.59%

Overall:
158 winners from 550 = 28.73% S.R
P/L: +91.11pts
POI: +16.57%
plus a 12pt profit from 1 forecast => +103.11pts from a 551pt outlay = +18.71% POI

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.

Stat of the Day Update, 17th to 23rd June 2013

Stat of the Day : Update

Stat of the Day : Update

Stat of the Day Update: 17/06/13 to 23/06/13

Last week on SotD was a week that had almost everything you can think of. A nice winner kicked off the week and we'd a trip to Ireland plus a non-runner in Wales who reappeared in England and was gallant in defeat.

We also had a couple who ran absolute stinkers (both had White in the name!) and one who ran far better (and closer to winning) than 5th place would suggest. And finally, regarding the advised odds: all five losing bets this week shortened in price, but our winner drifted slightly.

All things considered, though, it was a small (2pt) loss on the week and enough to put us in the red for the whole month: a situation I've a week to rectify.

Selections & Results: 17/06/13 to 23/06/13

17/06: 4.00 Kempton: Poyle Thomas (advised at 9/4 BOG) : won at 3/1
18/06: 7.20 Sligo: Mighty Whitey (advised at 4/1 BOG) : unplaced at 9/4
19/06: 5.45 Uttoxeter: My Lad Percy (advised 5/1 BOG) : unseated rider at 4/1
20/06: 8.45 Ffos Las: Man Of Leisure (advised 3/1 BOG) : non-runner
21/06: 2.55 Market Rasen: Walter White (advised 4/1 BOG) : unplaced at 5/2
22/06: 5.15 Newmarket: Trojan Rocket (advised 7/2 BOG) : unplaced at 11/4
23/06: 5.20 Worcester: Man Of Leisure (advised 11/2 BOG) : 2nd at 4/1

17/06 to 23/06:
1 winning bet from 6
P/L: -2.00pts

June:
5 winners from 22 = 22.73% S.R
P/L: -1.00pts
POI = -4.55%

Overall:
158 winners from 543 = 29.10% S.R
P/L: +98.11pts
POI: +18.07%
plus a 12pt profit from 1 forecast => +110.11pts from a 544pt outlay = +20.24% POI

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.

Stat of the Day Update, 10th to 16th June 2013

Stat of the Day : Update

Stat of the Day : Update

Stat of the Day Update: 10/06/13 to 16/06/13

A week of mixed fortunes last week for SotD followers. On the face of it, a solitary 2/1 winner doesn't look good, but we'd two other horses finishing second, so we feel like we're there or thereabouts.

Our 2/1 winner was advised at that price, so we matched the market on that one, but I'm pleased to note that the other 6 runners all went off at lower prices than we'd advised (some by two or three points) and that has to be a long-term aim, along with finding winners, of course!

Selections & Results: 10/06/13 to 16/06/13

10/06: 6.40 Southwell: Apache Dawn (advised at 3/1 BOG) : 2nd at 5/2
11/06: 3.30 Salisbury: Iffraaj Pink (advised at 4/1 BOG) : unplaced at 2/1
12/06: 7.20 Hamilton Red Tyke (advised 4/1 BOG) : 2nd at 3/1
13/06: 4.45 Nottingham: Shades of Silver (advised 10/1 E/W BOG) : unplaced at 7/1
14/06: 5.05 Musselburgh: Jupiter Fidius (advised 4/1 BOG) : unplaced at 7/2
15/06: 7.25 Lingfield: Hornboy (advised 2/1 BOG) : won at 2/1
16/06: 4.00 Salisbury: Hallelujah (advised 7/2 BOG) : unplaced at 5/2

10/06 to 16/06:
1 winning bet from 7
P/L: -4.00pts

June:
4 winners from 16 = 25.00% S.R
P/L: +1.00pts
POI = +6.25%

Overall:
157 winners from 537 = 29.24% S.R
P/L: +100.11pts
POI: +18.64%
plus a 12pt profit from 1 forecast => +112.11pts from a 538pt outlay = +20.84% POI

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.