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Stat of the Day Update, 3rd to 9th June 2013

Stat of the Day : Update

Stat of the Day : Update

Stat of the Day Update: 03/06/13 to 09/06/13

A good week for SotD and its followers last week, with three nice (4/1 and 7/2 twice) winners and two others making the frame. All but one of our seven selections were sent off at shorter prices than our advice, so there was some joy for the traders too.

We managed to double our money over the week with a 7pt gain and this puts our June strike rate in the kind of area we usually operate in ie 1 in 3. And the long-term strategy of a 1 in 3 strike rate allied to prices that are better than SP will bear fruit on a consistent basis, albeit with the ups and downs associated with any kind of betting.

Selections & Results: 03/06/13 to 09/06/13

03/06: 2.15 Leicester: Hatha Hooh (advised at 5/2 BOG) : 3rd at 7/4
04/06: 4.00 Ripon: Gallena (advised at 9/2 BOG) : unplaced at 7/1
05/06: 6.25 Fairyhouse: General Brook (advised 4/1 BOG) : won at 2/1
06/06: 4.15 Brighton: Spieta (advised 7/2 BOG) : 2nd at 7/2
07/06: 5.30 Newmarket: Mankini (advised 7/2 BOG) : won at 3/1
08/06: 4.10 Catterick: Powerful Presence (advised 7/2 BOG) : won at 11/4
09/06: 4.30 Perth: Mumbles Head (advised 5/1 BOG) : unplaced at 4/1

03/06 to 09/06:
3 winning bets from 7
P/L: +7.00pts

June:
3 winners from 9 = 33.33% S.R
P/L: +5.00pts
POI = +55.55%

Overall:
156 winners from 530 = 29.43% S.R
P/L: +104.11pts
POI: +19.64%
plus a 12pt profit from 1 forecast => +116.11pts from a 531pt outlay = +21.87% POI

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.

Stat of the Day, 8th June 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 8th June 2013

It paid to stick with Team Cumani yesterday as Kirsty Milczarek gave an excellent ride to Mankini in the last race at HQ yesterday to land her first win there since 2008, some 48 rides ago! Mankini took the lead with well over a furlong to go, but was headed and looked in danger of going down, but Kirsty rallied him and he found some extra and stayed on well to win by a length at 3/1 (we'd got on at 7/2).

North Yorkshire is our port of call today for competitive looking 7f, Class 3 handicap. The ground is said to be Good To Firm for the eight runners set to do battle in the...

4.10 Catterick:

David O'Meara's yard is in good form at present with eight winners from twenty-eight in the last week alone and he sends a half-dozen runners to Catterick today to build on what is a decent record at this North Yorkshire track.

It's not often that you can blindly back a trainer at a specified track regardless of odds or type of race etc and still show a profit, but throughout his career, David has sent 127 runners here, finding 23 winners (18.1%) for a respectable 18.8pts profit at Betfair SP (+14.8%). And in the last twelve months his record here is ten winners from forty-seven (21.3%) for a gain of 21.8pts (+46.4%), including a win in this very race last year.

He looks keen to repeat last year's victory by running three horses in this year's renewal, including last year's winner and today's selection Powerful Presence.

Powerful Presence is obviously a C&D winner courtesy of winning this race a year ago and runs off the same mark of 87 as a year ago. He comes here in good form himself, having won at Musselburgh last Saturday. To date, this horse has already clocked up 8 wins from 28 attempts since coming over from Ireland, a very healthy 28.6% strike rate and his record on Good To Firm ground is four wins from five. The trip will be fine, as he's 6/16 over 7f and his record here at Catterick reads 121 all over today's trip.

He likes to be up at the head of affairs and  provided he can be kept to his work and towards the head of the pack, I see no reason why he won't be there or thereabouts again this afternoon. So, my call is a 1pt win bet on Powerful Presence at 7/2 BOG. Most of the big firms are offering 7/2 at present and I've just got on at that price with Paddy Power, but you really should...

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Stat of the Day, 7th June 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 7th June 2013

It was one of those "close, but no cigar" days yesterday as we identified two strong prospects in Bartack and Spieta. Whilst Bartack was a little too short-priced for SotD purposes, I still backed him as he won very comfortably at 6/4 and I know a few of you did too. That meant that many of us at least had a free bet on Spieta, the actual daily pick and despite her going down by the best part of two lengths, she wasn't disgraced and gave a good account of herself.

I think she'll be back in the winner's enclosure pretty soon, one to keep an eye out for. We're off to HQ today and the July course (yes, I know it's June!) for a ten furlong, Class 5 Handicap on Good to Firm ground, but they are watering it. We're expecting eight runners to line up later for the...

5.30 Newmarket:

I make no apologies about sticking with Luca Cumani today, as yesterday showed that he's got his horses in good nick at present and running well. He's also one of the more successful trainers over this course with 20% strike rate in handicaps here over the last three seasons:  six winners from thirty for 7.64pts at betfair SP (+25.5% ROI). His record in handicap here in the SotD price range ie 7/1 or under is even more impressive as all six wins have been priced that way. That record is 6/16 (37.5%) for 21.64pts (+135.3%).

Luca has just the one handicap entry here at Newmarket today and that's the lightly raced (just three previous outings) 4 yr old Mankini.

As with Spieta yesterday, Mankini makes his handicap debut today and since the turn of 2010, the Cumani yard has had 52 handicap debutants sent off at prices of under 8/1, returning some sixteen (30.8%) winners for profits of 23.6pts.

It's actually just 16 days shy of a year since Mankini last ran a race of any kind, but as I mentioned yesterday, the yard is very good at getting horses to perform after a lengthy break: 20 wins from 79 (25.3%) for 22.03pts (+27.9% ROI) with horses returning from a break of 6 months to a year and when fancied in the market (ie 4/1 or under) that record is improved further to an astonishing 17/26 (65.4%) for 43.2pts (+166.2%) profit.

One final stat I'd like to throw into the mix is that the horse's three previous outings were over a mile and today he steps up a further two furlongs. That might be seen as a negative to some people, but Luca Cumani adopts this tactic quite often to good effect.  Handicap debutants with just three runs under their belts have 6 races for Mr Cumani from just 28 attempts when running over a trip two furlongs longer than their last effort.

All of these point to Mankini having a decent chance today. And it's the stats that we're relying on in the main, as there's little in the way of substantive form to go off, but the four horses that beat him last time out have gone on to run some seventeen times between them since that race. All four have won at least once and their combined record from the seventeen outings is six wins and seven places with just four unplaced efforts, mainly in much better races than today. None of the four failed to make the frame on their very first run after last June's contest with the 3rd and 4th placed horses winning.

The play, therefore, is a 1pt win bet on Mankini at 7/2 BOG. This price is widely available this morning and I've chosen to use BetVictor today, but for your preferred bookie, please...

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Stat of the Day, 6th June 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 6th June 2013

We got June back on an even keel last night with a very well timed run to the front by General Brook. We'd got on at 4/1 in the morning at odds I considered just about fair, but he was well fancied and went off as short as 2/1. As I'd hoped, he was kept closer to the action than previously and he was placed in a good position to strike and he managed to get home by just a neck, taking the lead in the final strides.

We're very aware here at SotD, how fine the margins can be in racing and they went our way yesterday. Back to the UK today and the sunny South Coast for a Class 6 Handicap on Good to Firm ground, where nine runners will tackle ten furlongs in the...

4.15 Brighton:

It's all about Luca Cumani today, he has two runners out this afternoon, both at Brighton and I expect both to win. Bartack goes first in the 3.05 race and should be good enough to take that one, but at 11/8 in a maiden event, he seems a little too short for our purposes here. This, by default, means we wait another 70 minutes for the seasonal reappearance of Spieta.

Mr Cumani doesn't actually send many runners to Brighton, despite a good success rate here. In fact, he has sent just 26 runners here since the start of 2008, but a strike rate of over 23% courtesy of six winners is enough to provoke interest, as is, of course, the 9.76pts (+37.5% ROI) profit at betfair SP, but those stats alone don't quite cut it for SotD: we need/want more!

Spieta makes her handicap debut today and the Cumani yard is very good at finding a handicap race for debutants to win first time out. Since the turn of 2010, they have had 51 handicap debutants sent off at prices of under 8/1, returning some sixteen (31.4%) winners for profits of 24.6pts (+79.4% ROI). There may be some concern out there about the fact that Spieta has been off the track for over 7 months now (224 days to be precise!), but I wouldn't let that deter you as Luca's horse do tend to run well after a break.

In the last two and a half years, the yard has had 69 runners come back from a break of 6 to 10 months, of which twenty (29%) have gone on to win on their reappearance. Of those 69 runners, twenty-five were priced at 9/2 or under (where I expect Spieta to be today) producing seventeen (68%) winners for 44.2pts (+177% ROI) profit and of those, a dozen had run in handicap races on no more than two occasions in the past, yielding 11 winners for 28pts profit.

So, there are plenty of stats to support the pick, but what of the horse herself? Well, after just three modest performances in maidens, there's not a great deal to tell, but her breeding tends to suggest that today's step up in trip will be to her liking and she looked to have plenty of promise when 5th at Doncaster in what looks a tougher race than today's.  The 2nd, 3rd and 4th horses that day have all gone on to win since that race, whilst the winner has moved up three classes to Class 2 company. So, if the form continues to hold out, we should be set fair this afternoon. In fact, even the horse behind her in 6th has gone on to win subsequently, so that's proving to be a decent maiden.

I'd expect London Bridge to be the favourite and her main rival today and the presence of that one means we get a decent price for our selection. The play, therefore, is a 1pt win bet on Spieta at 7/2 BOG. This price is pretty much available everywhere with the odd exception and I'm on with Stan James this morning, but for your preferred bookie, please...

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Stat of the Day, 5th June 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 5th June 2013

I was late posting yesterday due to a power cut and it would seem the same thing happened to my selection Gallena at Ripon! She travelled really well approaching the furlong pole, but when asked for a finish, there was nothing there. I'm not saying she stopped suddenly, but it did seem like she was treading water late on. She had been challenging for the lead with a little over a furlong to go, yet ended up back in 6th at 7/1, around 7 lengths off the pace.

June hasn't started well at all after a fruitful May and I aim to rectify that situation today by heading across the water to County Meath for a 12-runner, 7-furlong Maiden of all races! The going is set to be good to firm this evening for the runners in the...

6.25 Fairyhouse:

Trainer David Wachman has proved to be quite adept at winning maiden races here at Fairyhouse in recent times, with four winners and four placed horses from his last dozen entries over the past three years. This 33.33% strike rate has brought in profits of 11.23pts at Betfair SP, which represents a very healthy  93.6% return on your money. And of the eight horses that failed to win, one was priced at 16/1 and two at 20/1. These aren't horses we'd normally consider for SotD, so without them the record becomes even more impressive at 4/9 (44.44%) for 14.23pts ( +158.1%)

Now, David actually has three entries in maidens this evening, with both Remember You and Unravelled making their racecourse debuts in the 5.25 race. I've left these alone, as I'd rather see them run first and they're also up against an O'Brien shortie! However, if pressed, my preference would be for the former to make the frame.

This leaves us, by default, with our selection General Brook, who comes here with the advantage of having had the experience of competing in public, having finished a very creditable second on debut behind the progressive and consistent In Salutem (who incidentally runs in the 5.55 race and could be a good indicator of our chances a half hour later!) and he wasn't unduly troubled or knocked about that day.

The general feeling is that he's going to need further than today's 7f in the long run and is expected to come on for the benefit of that first run and could prove very hard to beat if he's kept a little closer to the pace today in what is a weaker race than he faced on debut. There are a couple of interesting debutants on show today, but of those with any racing experience, our selection has the best of the form and the 4/1 BOG on offer from Bet365 looks fair if not over generous. As I wrote this, that was the only price on offer, but by the time you get to read this, better odds may be on offer elsewhere, so please...

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Stat of the Day, 4th June 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 4th June 2013

A power cut here this morning means I'm a little behind schedule, so I'll be as brief as I can here! Third place was the best we could manage yesterday, despite Hatha Hooh leading for much of the contest. He lost the lead inside the closing stages, but rallied to resume his position at the head of affairs. Unfortunately he was unable to hold to the finish and as he hung right, he was passed by two pursuers. The end result was 3rd at 7/4 favouritism: we'd backed him at 5/2, so we did at least beat the market.

So, onto today and the beautiful Yorkshire Dales for a 6 furlong, Class 5 handicap for 3 year olds. The ground is said to be good (firmer in places) for the twelve runners contesting the...

4.00 Ripon:

The William Haggas yard is ion good form at present, having saddled up 6 winners and 10 placers from just 28 runners in the last fortnight: a very healthy win strike rate of 21.43%, whilst the yard record here at Ripon in recent times has been even more impressive.

In the last six seasons Mr Haggas has enjoyed a 1 in 3 strike rate at this track (14/42) generating some 35.35pts at betfair SP (+84.17% ROI), whilst over 57% of these runners have made the frame rewarding E/W followers with a 32pt return. Those figures aren't skewed by one freak season either, the strike rate is pretty consistent throughout, although it is actually a little better more recently, since 2010 that record is 7/20 (35%).

The yard has two runners today here at Ripon: Rock Choir, whilst not without a chance of a place in the 4.30 race, does look up against it with the presence of a very warm favourite. But a half hour earlier sees our selection Gallena take the stage. She was very consistent and progressive in her juvenile season and can be excused the poor result on her handicap debut when she was denied a clear run at Windsor four weeks ago and with just the five runs under her belt (4213-9) she remains very unexposed at this level.

Further improvement is expected of her this season, so a 1pt bet on Gallena at 9/2 BOG with BetVictor looks a decent proposition. This price is quite widely available (Bet365, Ladbrokes and William Hill all go 9/2 on this one), so to see what your bookie is offering simply...

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Stat of the Day Update, 27th May to 2nd June

Stat of the Day : Update

Stat of the Day : Update

Stat of the Day Update: 27/05/13 to 02/06/13

It wasn't the best of weeks for SotD, but the one winner we did get find not only kept the weekly loss to a respectable level, it also preserved the final profit figure for May. May ended up being a very good month for us, securing almost 13pts profit at a strike rate of 30% and an ROI of nearly 43%. June hasn't quite hit the ground running just yet, but we are only two days in.

It was interesting to note as an aside that three of our four unplaced runners this week were linked to either of Nicky Henderson or Tony McCoy, perhaps SotD needs to shy away from the racing elite to remain successful?

Selections & Results: 27/05/13 to 02/06/13

27/05: 2.30 Cartmel: Rosslyn Castle (advised at 4/1 BOG) : unplaced at 9/4
28/05: 2.20 Newton Abbot: Looking Hopeful (advised at 4/1 BOG) : unplaced at 11/4
29/05: 4.05 Nottingham: Iffraaj Pink (advised 5/2 BOG) : non-runner
30/05: 4.10 Hamilton: Chester Aristocrat (advised 3/1 BOG) : won at 6/5
31/05: 8.00 Bath: Interior Minister (advised 3/1 BOG) : 2nd at 7/2
01/06: 2.20 Musselburgh: Withernsea (advised 6/1 BOG) : unplaced at 7/1
02/06: 4.15 Southwell: Definite Ruby (advised 5/2 BOG) : unplaced at 7/2

27/05 to 02/06:
1 winning bet from 6
P/L: -2.00pts

May:
9 winners from 30 = 30.00% S.R
P/L: +12.83pts
POI = +42.77%

June:
0 winners from 2 = 0.00% S.R
P/L: -2.00pts
POI = -100.00%

Overall:
153 winners from 523 = 29.25% S.R
P/L: +97.11pts
POI: +18.57%
plus a 12pt profit from 1 forecast => +109.11pts from a 524pt outlay = +20.82% POI

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.

Stat of the Day, 3rd June 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 3rd June 2013

A bad day at the office yesterday, I'm afraid. Definite Ruby ran well enough early on, but after a couple of jumping errors, folded like a cheap deck chair, weakened and eventually tailed off from the back. The end result was 6th of 8 at 7/2, the best part of 62 lengths away from the winner!

We'll not be that far away today, as it's only a six furlong maiden in the...

2.15 Leicester:

Richard Hannon's recent record is very impressive, having recorded fifteen winners from forty-seven races (31.91%) during 2012 and 2013 so far. The profits from these winners add up to 16.48pts at betfair SP, or 35.1% of stakes. That record is 9/31 (29%) for 13.79pts (44.5%) in non-handicap race and more pertinent to today's selection: maiden events have produced 6 winners from 20 (30%) and 10.27pts (51.35%) profit.

Mr Hannon runs two horses here at Leicester today: Rundell has a decent chance at 4/1 in the 3.15 handicap race (a race the Hannon team won last year with Pilgrims Rest), but the selection today runs an hour earlier: Hatha Hooh.

This horse is expected to be a far better prospect than the bare result of his 6th placed finish on debut would suggest. His breeding lends itself to him becoming a decent sprinter and he was fancied well enough to be favourite on debut in what now (in retrospect, of course) looks to have been a decent Goodwood maiden. Since that race, the winner has finished second next time out, as has the 4th placed gorse, whilst both the runner-up and the third placed horse have won.

Hatha Hooh was far too keen and green that day and should benefit from the experience, as many of the Richard Hannon stable do. Since 2011, 30 out of 135 of his horses that were unplaced on debut have gone on to win next time out: this 22.2% strike rate has generated some 88.12pts profit at betfair SP, a return of 65.3% which is more than satisfactory.

With the yard's record here at Leicester in general added to their record in maidens here, their ability to get a horse to improve 2nd time out and the subsequent form of his own maiden race, Hatha Hooh looks a decent 1pt win bet at 5/2. This price is pretty widely available, so for your preferred bookie, simply...

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Stat of the Day, 2nd June 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 2nd June 2013

A wasted journey North yesterday, as Withernsea ran a bit of  a stinker, if I'm honest. He wakened considerably at a fairly early point, to the extent that he only beat one other horse home. We'd backed him at 6/1, not many others liked the look of him as he drifted out to 7's and the layers were proved correct.

We turn back to one racing's big names today to hopefully find the winner of the...

4.15 Southwell:

I'm going to keep it brief this morning, I'm off out very early, so time is at a premium, I'm afraid.

We turn to Nicky Henderson today, because in the last couple of years, he has been very successful here at Southwell on the jumps course. Eleven winners and eleven placers from just twenty-six runners is absolutely fantastic and of the eight runners that were priced between 15/8 and 7/2 the record reads 62111123, a 50% win strike rate (+8.57pts) and a place record of 87.5%.

In Southwell hurdles races, his record is eight wins and eight places from twenty with the five hurdlers priced in that 15/8 to 7/2 bracket finishing 21113 for +6.39pts.

Nicky's only got the one runner today: Definite Ruby and she's sure to be popular in the market. She had finished second and third (twice) already this year from three starts before winning last time out a fortnight ago at Fontwell in what was only her fifth race. She is expected to improve for that run and looks well treated on her return to handicap company, running off the same 115 mark she won off last time around. It is also expected that the step up in trip by a furlong and a half will be more to her liking too.

We're not going to be able to retire off the back of this one but at a best price of 5/2 (BetVictor, Paddy Power or William Hill), there's still enough there for us to make a bob or two via a 1pt win on Definite Ruby, but as always I suggest that you...

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Stat of the Day, 1st June 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 1st June 2013

No back to back success to close a profitable May, as Interior Minister just failed in his bid to land the spoils last night. Our 3/1 shot opened at 4's on track, but eased into 7/2 at the off. Cathy Gannon kept him close enough tot he action to be able to mount a late challenge and he was fairly flying at the death, but the line arrived too soon. He officially went down by a head, though it looked closer st the time and he was gaining with every stride, but the 2/1 favourite just about held on.

I'm heading to Scotland today in a bid to kick June off with a winner in a five furlong, Class 2, conditions race. The going is set to be good to firm (good in places) for the seven runners contesting the...

2.20 Musselburgh:

As I've mentioned a couple of times of late, I do like to look out for Course and Distance winners returning to "the scene of the crime", especially when running on the back of a win last time out and certain tracks lend themselves to horses with previous course successes. Musselburgh is proving to be one of those such tracks: since the start of 2011, sixty-nine former C&D winners have run here on the back of a win last time out and fifteen (21.74%) of them have been successful with a place strike rate of over 42%. In 2013 alone the figures show three winners and two placed from just eight runners. These three winners have produced level stakes profits of 9.36pts at Betfair SP = 117% of stakes invested and there are two such qualifiers today : Suzis Connoisseur and Withernsea and it's Withernsea that will be our selection today.

Withernsea is trained by Richard Fahey, who also has a good record at getting back to back victories out of horses with CD next to their name. In the same 2011 to today timeframe as earlier, Mr Fahey's record with such animals is twelve wins and seven places from just forty-four attempts, giving strike rates of 27.3% and 43.2% for the win and place respectively. The record for 2013 is 2 wins from 5 for 7.57pts at betfair SP.

So, the horse qualifies as a selection on two counts, but I have to admit that the sample size is too small to tie the two together, as the Fahey yard has only run three former C&D winners at Musselburgh on the back of a win in the last two and a half years, although one of them did also win!

So, what do we know about the horse, Withernsea, itself? He made his debut at Ripon just over six weeks ago and was a little slow away, which is deadly in a 5f sprint, but picked up well in the latter stages to come home in fourth place, less than four lengths adrift and he came on well for the experience when running here at Musselburgh four weeks ago. He left that debut run behind him by securing a pillar to post victory over today's course and distance. He made all up against the rail that day, stayed on strongly and looked full of running at the end of the race, he's drawn against the rails again today and seems the type who will progress further in time.

This is, of course, a step up for him and this tougher task allied to the presence of a short priced favourite, means we'll end up with a far longer price than the 7/4 he returned last time out. Justice Day is highly likely to go off at odds on, but I think he's there for the beating today, as there's more than a nagging suspicion that this 5f race might be a little too sharp for him with the early pace and that he may well be better suited to the 6f he won at last time around.

Our selection is to be ridden by Tony Hamilton today and Tony has already ridden 21 winners for Mr Fahey from 99 rides this season alone for level stakes profits of 61.45pts at Betfair SP with two winners from nine rides here at Musselburgh.

As I said above, the price of the favourite means there'll be a bit of juice for us in our bet and we could actually hedge our bets and go Each Way today, but fortune favours the brave and as such the call is a 1pt win bet on Withernsea at 6/1 BOG. This price is on offer at Stan James, Paddy Power and BetVictor, so you can take your pick, if you...

Click here for the latest betting on the 2.20 Musselburgh.

 

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Stat of the Day, 31st May 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 31st May 2013

A nice winner yesterday as Chester Aristocrat made all and finished strongly to hold on by half a length. He was well backed all day long. I got on at 3/1 at 9.30am and he opened on course at 6/4 and was finally sent off at 6/5. That's why we use BOG prices!

My quest for back to back winners takes me to Britain's highest flat racecourse for a fairly poor Class 6 Classified Stakes. Just six runners are set to tackle the ten furlongs (and 46 yards!) on good ground. Hopefully the sun will shine this evening for the...

8.00 Bath:

Trainer Jo Hughes has really got her horses firing at bath this season, as three winners and three places from ten so far in 2013 will testify. Those numbers aside are enough to take my interest and Jo runs two here this evening. Small Fury is a really consistent sort and looks a decent E/W chance at around 6/1 in the 6.50 race, but my selection today is Interior Minister, because this one will be ridden by Catherine Gannon.

Catherine has ridden all three of Jo's bath winners this term in a sequence reading 11341 and when you consider that the two losers were both priced up as 25/1 shots (and as such non-SotD contenders), this leaves three winners from three in our own odds parameters. Winners at 6/1, 5/1 and 7/4 will have been a great boost to the banks of those following this partnership.

Today's runner Interior Minister has the best recent form of what looks a poor contest. A good third on his seasonal return at Yarmouth, coupled with some expected improvement should see him on the premises this evening.

I expect him to attract plenty of attention today, as he has already been backed in from 7/2 to 3/1 whilst I was typing this, so the advice is to be quick on get a 1pt win bet on Interior Minister at 3/1 BOG. This price is on offer at both Bet365 and BetVictor, so you can take your pick, if you...

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Stat of the Day, 30th May 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 30th May 2013

A frustrating turn of events yesterday, as the well-fancied Iffraaj Pink was withdrawn, leaving us with no bet for the day. I'm hoping to at least get a run today in a Class 5, eight runner, 6 furlong handicap on good ground.

4.10 Hamilton:

Over the last couple of seasons, Eric Alston has proved to be a bit of a dab hand at dropping his horses down in class and getting a win out of them. He has dropped 73 horses down just one class since the start of 2011 and this has resulted in 14 winners (19.18%) and a further 13 have made the frame for a total place strike rate of 37%. The 14 winners have helped his followers make some 36.75pts at betfair SP, a return of 50.34% over stakes invested.

Those figures alone are a great starting point, but if we filter down to the standard sub-6/1 SotD territory, the numbers improve to nine winners from twenty, a 45% strike rate and 25.82pts profit at betfair SP (+129.1%.) Even Industry SP leads to doubling your money with profits of 20.5pts.

Eric runs Spavento in the 3.30 race, a filly with an excellent chance of gaining her 3rd C&D victory at current odds of 3/1, but it's the following race I'm more interested in, where Chester Aristocrat seeks back to back victories inside five days after landing a decent (and very competitive) Class 4 handicap at Haydock last Saturday. That win aside, this 4 yr old has been running consistently well and comes here at the very top of his game. He has, of course been penalised for hat win at the weekend, but the 6lb rise in he weights is virtually all but negated by Jason Hart's 5lb claim this afternoon.

I was hoping to get around 3/1 or maybe slightly higher on this one, so I was pleased to see that at 9.30am, this price was available to all of us.  Today's play is a 1pt win bet on Chester Aristocrat at 3/1 BOG with Stan James . This price is also available at Bet365, but may change a little in the market as the day progresses, so please keep an eye on the prices. The easiest way to do this is to simply...

Click here for the latest betting on the 4.10 Hamilton.

 

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Stat of the Day, 29th May 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 29th May 2013

I hold my hands up on yesterday's rick of a pick, as it was only after I'd gone to press that I learned that the horse has trouble finishing races strongly. Matt has pointed out elsewhere that he's a bleeder and thus the tame finish Matt predicted in his excellent winning placepot (250/1) duly materialised as Looking Hopeful looked a bit hopeless, finishing back in 5th place at 11/4, but a good 32+ lengths off the winner.

I've got a bit of a mini stat pack for you today regarding the....

4.05 Nottingham:

Amongst the various niches and angles I keep an eye with SotD in mind, three of them come to the fore today, each throwing up the same sole qualifier, but more on that shortly.

The first angle is the recent record of Roger Varian's horses making their handicap debut. Of the 62 such runners priced below 12/1 since the start of 2011, 13 have gone on to win, giving a decent 21% strike rate and a respectable ROI of over 22%, based on 13.8pts profit at betfair SP.

Secondly, I'd like to look at horses running at Nottingham on the back of a victory last time out and also have a Course & Distance win under their belts, Since the start of 2011, this has produced 10 winners from just 31 runners: a strike rate of 32.3% giving profits of 40.46pts at betfair SP, which is a very attractive 130% above stakes.

And finally, the third strand ties in with the second stat, but does serve to reinforce the numbers. Horses that won a Nottingham maiden last time out do particularly well at certain tracks next time out and one of those tracks is Nottingham itself. Horses reappearing at this track on the back of winning a maiden here have finished 11243124313 in the last 7 years (I've gone that far back, due to the small amount of qualifiers), a win strike rate of 36.4% producing 7.7pts at betfair SP (+70% ROI).

As I said earlier, each of those three micro-systems has just the one qualifier today and that is the progressive-looking Iffraaj Pink, who was beaten by just a head at Haydock a month ago by Valtina who has since competed in two listed events. Our selection then stepped up to take a maiden over course and distance here last time out whilst staying on strongly and looking like she'd plenty left in reserve. She's a half-sister to the classy Vale of York and seems to have been allocated a very fair mark of 82 for her handicap debut. The Varian team are applying blinkers for the first time today, as she has tended to wander around just a little in the past and it is hoped/expected the headgear will keep her on the straight and narrow.

We're not getting rich by any means here, but I'll be having a 1pt win bet on Iffraaj Pink at 5/2 BOG with Ladbrokes, but for your preferred bookie, please...

Click here for the latest betting on the 4.05 Nottingham.

 

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Stat of the Day, 28th May 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 28th May 2013

Not the best of starts to a new week, as Rosslyn Castle only trailed home 3rd of the 4 runners. He had run pretty well until being headed before the last hurdle, but that then seemed a cue for him to crumble. He faded quite badly and quite quickly from that point, whereby he finished a good 22 lengths behind the winner!

More jumps fayre for you today and another big name in the....

2.20 Newton Abbot:

Following on from yesterday's shock news that Tony McCoy rides lots of winners, here's another piece of information that's hardly ground-breaking news: Nicky Henderson trains lots of winners!

Yes, of course he does, Chris: everyone knows that. Most people also know that if you back him blindly, you'll lose money. Since 2010, backing all of Nicky's runners would have seen you lose some 9.2% of your stakes, despite a 24.4% strike rate. In hurdle contests such as today's the strike rate is slightly lower (23.6%), but so are the losses at just -4.65%.

However, if you backed Nicky's hurdlers here at Newton Abbot in that timeframe, you'd have been looking at eight winners from just nineteen runners: a 42.11% strike rate giving level stakes profits of 9.3pts at Betfair SP, a return of 48.95% and the record with horses 6/1 or under, where we concentrate most of our SotD picks, that record is 8/14 for +14.3pts.

This brings us to Nicky's sole hurdler at Newton Abbot today: Looking Hopeful. He's not one of Nicky's top players, but performed well enough in bumpers and then ran a very creditable second in a novice hurdle at Plumpton. He wasn't as good at Southwell recently, finishing 3rd almost three weeks, but he was coming back from a 4 month break and may well have needed the run and wasn't knocked about too much that day. Despite not having won a race, he has been placed in five of his seven starts, so he's knocking on the door and it looks like his yard have targeted this maiden event as a starting point. It does look weaker than the other races he's run in.

I think there's enough there to justify a 1pt win bet on Looking Hopeful at 4/1 BOG with BoyleSports, but to see what on offer elsewhere, please...

Click here for the latest betting on the 2.20 Newton Abbot.

 

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Stat of the Day Update, 20th to 26th May

Stat of the Day : Update

Stat of the Day : Update

Stat of the Day Update: 20/05/13 to 26/05/13

The second half of the week wasn't as good as the first half, but we still managed to make a decent 4.5pts profit on the week. This gives us a guaranteed profit for May, which we'll be looking to increase by the close of play on friday.

Selections & Results: 20/05/13 to 26/05/13

20/05: 5.00 Southwell: Sofia's Number One (advised at 9/2 BOG) : won at 11/2
21/05: 3.20 Nottingham: Zarosa (advised at 9/2 BOG) : 2nd at 4/1
22/05: 4.30 Lingfield: At A Clip (advised 11/4 BOG) : unplaced at 6/4
23/05: 6.40 Salisbury: Levi Draper (advised 7/2 BOG) : won at 4/1
24/05: 2.45 Yarmouth: See The Storm (advised 9/4 BOG) : unplaced at 7/4
25/05: 8.35 Cartmel: Exning Halt (advised 3/1 BOG) : unplaced at 13/2
26/05: 4.40 Fontwell: Jaja De Jau (advised 4/1 BOG) : unplaced at 5/1

20/05 to 26/05:
2 winning bets from 7
P/L: +4.50pts

May:
8 winners from 26 = 30.77% S.R
P/L: +12.83pts
POI = +49.35%

Overall:
152 winners from 517 = 29.40% S.R
P/L: +99.11pts
POI: +19.17%
plus a 12pt profit from 1 forecast => +111.11pts from a 518pt outlay = +20.86% POI

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.