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Double Dutch, 6th January 2014

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 6th January 2014

Back to winning ways yesterday with a 10.38/1 double on a Super Southwell Sunday!

Both of our winners were market drifters, but the beauty of only using BOG bookies for these bets meant that we got the full 10.28/1 payout from our original 6.32/1 advice.

You really MUST use the BOGglers!

Yesterday's results were as follows:

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Frontier Fighter: won at 9/4 BOG (adv 5/4)
Greyfriarschorista: 3rd at 2/1 SP (adv 9/4)
---------------------------------
Captain Secret: won at 5/2 SP (adv 9/4)
Exceeding Power: last of 4!

Results to date:
112 winning selections from 376 = 29.79%
35 winning doubles in 101 days = 34.65%

Stakes: 200.00pts
Returns: 213.64pts

P/L : +13.64pts (+6.82% ROI)

A combination of bad weather, heavy ground and non-runners coupled with it being a Monday and little decent racing to choose from has made today's piece hard to write, but there are 21 races either side of the Irish Sea, surely we can find two with decent chances for us? 😀

12.25 Southwell:

We head straight back to Southwell for their opener, a 2 mile chase on heavy ground which I expect to become an attritional battle between Morestead and Decent Lord.

Both like the testing conditions: each of Morestead's last three races have been on heavy ground and he has finished second each time. He hasn't missed out by much, though with a total margin of defeat of just 2.5 lengths across the 3 races. He idled on the run in last time out and was nailed late on, so a drop back in trip should suit and you just know that the booking of AP McCoy means he'll be ridden to a finish.

Morestead is my (very!) marginal preference and is currently available at 7/4 BOG with Stan James. Decent Lord is similarly priced and comes here with a record of two wins from five on heavy ground and hails from a yard with a very good record in such testing conditions. This is only Decent Lord's fourth attempt over the larger obstacles and aside from unseating his rider at the first last time out, his jumping has been sound and he looks a creditable alternative at a generally available 7/4 BOG.

*
2.40 Wolverhampton:

A change of scenery/code for our second race today, where Matraash attempts to land his fourth seller on the bounce. He generally comes late to win fairly narrowly over 10f and 12f, so it'll be interesting to see if a drop to 8.5f is either more to his liking or a touch too sharp. Had this been a better quality contest, I wouldn't go near him, but there are doubts over the rest of the field, which means the 13/8 BOG offered by Stan James might yet still be too long.

You can make cases for and against all five rivals here, but the one I like best is I Confess. 5/1 BOG with Coral looks fairly generous about a former Course & Distance winner, who has won 9 of his last 30 races and has a career total of 13 Polytrack wins. The downside? We have to take his fitness on trust, he hasn't run for 433 days!

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Decent Lord / Matraash @ 5.88/1 (Generally 7/4 & 6/4)
Morestead / Matraash @ 6.22/1 (Stan James 7/4 & 13/8)
Morestead / I Confess @ 15.25/1 (BetInternet 6/4 & 11/2)
Decent Lord / I Confess @ 16.06/1 (BetInternet 13/8 & 11/2)

Stat of the Day, 6th January 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 6th January 2014

Despite a 35p in the pound reduction in our winnings yesterday, the 2.28/1 returned from Beau Lake's success was still comfortably more satisfying than the 7/4 SP returned to those people not taking an early BOG price.

I know that both myself and Matt tend to bang on about it a little bit from time to time, but can you really afford to be leaving money on the table after a winning bet? I know I can't!

As for yesterday's race, Gavin Sheehan rode the horse perfectly in testing conditions. He led pretty much from the off and made all, the horse jumped well enough, bar a mistake at the last and he stayed on well to win by almost five lengths.

More heavy ground to deal with today as we tackle the...

1.55 Southwell:

Warren Greatrex's last dozen runners here at Southwell have finished as follows: 31121P123612, five winners and five placed from just twelve. The five winners have helped his followers to a level stakes profit of just over 8pts, an ROI of 67%.

Warren has just the one runner today and that's the racecourse debutant Silent Knight, who comes here on the back of a 4 lengths victory over 3 miles in a point to point event at Tattersalls Farm, Ireland, ensuring that stamina shouldn't be his downfall here.

Just like yesterday, Gavin Sheehan takes the ride and a similar performance wouldn't go amiss!

Gavin has achieved nine winners from the forty-two, sub-20/1 runners he has ridden for Mr Greatrex, a 21.4% strike rate leading to 27.5pts level stakes profit, a return of 65.5% above stakes.

When using his 3lb claim (like today!) Gavin is 8/35 (22.9% SR) for 29.3pts (+83.7% ROI) on those runners, of which his record over hurdles is 7/24 (29.2% SR) for 33.9pts (+141.3% ROI) profit.

Thirteen of the twenty-four above have made the frame for a 54.2% place strike rate, making the Greatrex/Sheehan combination a profitable one even at E/W stakes.

Silent Knight represents the only action for both trainer and jockey, so I'm hoping he pays the bills today. His points win over a longer trip should ensure he's fit enough and both his previous runs have been on testing ground, so he should handle the conditions well enough.

His lack of UK racing makes him a bit of an unknown quantity, but he's also obviously unexposed in a race where none of hs rivals look suited to the heavy ground. Between the 10 of them, they have mustered 1 win from 17 on soft ground and 0/2 on heavy, suggesting that it could be a struggle for some of these today.

Silent Knight is currently available at 10/1 BOG with SkyBet, so it's a safety first 0.5pts E/W bet for me today. It might look like a bit of a punt, but those odds still look generous. I should add that BetInternet are offering the same price, so be sure to...

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Double Dutch, 5th January 2014

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 5th January 2014

Saturday went the way of Friday, in that race 1's winner was let down by events in our second set of selections. Retrieve The Stick held off a stiff challenge to triumph by just a neck in the 12.00 race, but events went against us 35 minutes later.

Dancing Art's two-lengths defeat to the outsider of four was the best we could muster in the second contest, meaning a loss of two points on the day. Not the best way to celebrate 100 days of Double Dutching.

Yesterday's results were as follows:

Retrieve The Stick: won at 13/8 adv (SP 11/8)
The Flaming Matron: 3rd at 5/2 SP (adv 2/1)
---------------------------------
Dancing Art: 2nd at 15/8 adv (SP 15/8)
Rupert Bear: last of 4!

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Results to date:
110 winning selections from 372 = 29.56%
34 winning doubles in 100 days = 34.00%

Stakes: 198.00pts
Returns: 207.95pts

P/L : +9.95pts (+5.03% ROI)

More bad weather around today, so the safest option is a couple of trips around the all-weather:

2.10 Southwell:

Greyfriarschorista is a six-times winner at this trip and he's a triple course and distance winner from just five attempts. Shelley Birkett rode him for the first time nine days when he gained that 3rd C&D win with a career best performance and she's back in the saddle again today after riding two winners from her last three races elsewhere The horse holds several of these rivals on recent runs and a 3lb rise shouldn't be enough to prevent another bold run at 9/4 BOG.

The big danger is the 5/4 BOG favourite (PP & Coral) Frontier Fighter. The last time he ran here (26 days ago) he managed to get within a neck of course specialist Dubai Hills who was winning his 7th consecutive race here! Frontier Fighter drops in class for this one and although he's up 5lbs for recent efforts, the 3lb claim of promising jockey Sam James might make all the difference today.

*
2.40 Southwell:

Captain Secret was very impressive when making all to land a course and distance victory here 16 days, but has been hit with a 9lb hike in the weights for that 3.5 lengths success. That was her first start on Fibresand and when you consider the natural improvement most of Marco Botti's horses make, it's easy to see why she's a fairly short favourite here at a best price of 9/4 BOG with PP. She's now 2/5 on A/W and 3/7 overall and likes to dictate races from the front.

She's likely to encounter some resistance to her bid to lead from the start today, as Searchlight is another who likes to assume control at the head of the pack. Whilst Searchlight has claims of his own due to his consistency, he's still a maiden after seven races, as he always finds at least one catching him late on. I think that these two will battle it out and possibly burn each other out, leaving the door open for a finisher like...

...Exceeding Power, who comes here seeking a hat trick after a win at Wolverhampton was followed up by a course and distance success here on New Year's Day. He had to dig deep to win that day, prevailing by just a neck, but it should be noted that the third placed horse was 5 lengths behind him. He's a gutsy sort and in the current form he's in, a 3lb penalty might not be enough to stop him grinding the front-runners down again, making his 3/1 BOG at Bet365 look decent value.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Frontier Fighter / Captain Secret @ 6.32/1 (PP 5/4 & 9/4)
Frontier Fighter / Exceeding Power @ 7.80/1 (Bet365 6/5 & 3/1)
Greyfriarschorista / Captain Secret @ 9.56/1 (PP 9/4 & 9/4)
Greyfriarschorista / Exceeding Power @ 11.19/1 (Hills, Coral 9/4 & 11/4 )

Double Dutch, 3rd January 2014

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 3rd January 2014

Two winners got us back on track yesterday, but the returns were unspectacular. A Rule 4 deduction reduced our first winner down to 11/10. Mind you, the SP was 4/6, so we beat the market handsomely on that one.

There was a slight drift in the second race as our two against the field flipped favouritism and our first pick was victorious at 11/8, whilst forecasters also made a small profit.

Yesterday's results were as follows:

Swatow Typhoon: won at 11/10 adv (after a R4!) (SP 4/6)
Milborough: fell
---------------------------------
Carole’s Destrier: won at 11/8 BOG (adv 6/5)
Cloud Creeper: 2nd at 13/8 adv (SP 6/5)
(The Exacta paid £4.40)

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Results to date:
108 winning selections from 364 = 29.67%
34 winning doubles in 98 days = 34.69%

Stakes: 194.00pts
Returns: 207.95pts

P/L : +13.95pts (+7.19% ROI)

Friday appears to be the worst day of racing I've seen for a while, but every race will have a winner! Hopefully, we'll find two of them here:

2.30 Southwell:

On first inspection last night, I assumed this to be a fairly close-run affair between four horses and as such discarded the contest from consideration for the doubles. Two of the four main protagonists have now, however, been withdrawn leaving me with two to follow.

The obvious starting point is Luv U Whatever, whose trainer has a good record att this track and the horse itself is 1121 on its last four outings here. He won well last time out (at Wolverhampton) to take his A/W record to four wins and a second from just six runs and looks the likeliest winner now at 2/1 BOG.

The main danger is expected to come from Honoured who can currently be backed at 5/2 BOG. This 7yr old also has a good record at this track with finishes of 23112 over the last 14 months or so.. He was only beaten by a neck on that last outing and trainer Michael Appleby's horses are going really well of late.

*
3.10 Musselburgh:

Another of those four-runner races, where I can only see one of two winning!

Of the two at the head of the market, Kris Cross looks most likely for me. He was rerouted here rather than competing at Ayr yesterday and this looks a better opportunity for him to win again. 3 miles on soft ground is no problem for this one, he has won over 3m 3f in the paast and was third over 3m 2f on soft ground two starts ago, before winning at Ascot over today's trip six weeks ago. Taking his jockey's allowancve into consideration, he's getting weight all round and will probably go off shorter than his current odds of 11/8 BOG with Stan James.

I'd expoect Lively Baron to be his main rival for today's £7800 top prize. This 9 yr old is an out and out stayer, but has a good record at this kind of trip too. He has run six times over 3m 0.5 furlongs with finishes of 211332 and he looks a danger at 5/2 BOG dropping back in trip. He jumps well and provided they don't go off too quickly for him, he'll not be found out for stamina today.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Luv U Whatever / Kris Cross @ 6.125 (Stan James 2/1 & 11/8)
Luv U Whatever / Lively Baron @ 19/2 (Paddy Power 2/1 & 5/2)
Honoured / Kris Cross @ 8.3125 (Stan James 5/2 & 11/8)
Honoured / Lively Baron @ 11.375 (5/2 & 9/4 generally)

Stat of the Day, 3rd January 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 3rd January 2014

Arkose failed to land the spoils for us on Thursday afternoon, I'm afraid. He was headed after a mistake 2 from home and didn't really get going again enough to make a late challenge.

The final result was a 4th placed finish at 4/1, longer than I'd anticipated if I'm honest.

I'm avoiding the damp turf for my next runner, which features in the...

3.30 Southwell:

Where I've got a stack of inter-related stats to back up the selection of Pick A Little, who was an 11/4 shot on Thursday evening when I wrote this piece!

1. Top weighted males aged 4-6 running in Classes 5-7 on the All-Weather in races for 4yr olds and above only. In the last three years, such horses who won last time out and are priced between 13/8 and 8/1 in the follow-up race, went on to win 40 of 138 races. A strike rate of 29% generating profits of 73.75pts, an ROI of over 53%.

Of the 138 runners, the record at Southwell was 11/27 (40.74% SR) for 32.05pts (+118.7% ROI) profit.

2. Top-weighted males in all-weather, class 5 to 7, 4yo+ handicaps whose previous race was within the last three weeks (but not one day ago!) and they either won or finished in the first home within a length of the winner also perform well next time out. In the same 2011/13 timeframe as above, these males when priced at 6/1 or under have won 83 out of 270 races (30.74% SR) for level stakes profits of 60.93pts (+22.57% ROI).

When applied to races here at Southwell only, the figures read 25 winners from 55 (45.45% SR) for 30.61pts (+55.65% ROI).

3. Last year, horses that ran on the all-weather within 30 days of a win which came after at least three consecutive unplaced efforts fared very well indeed. When turned back out at an SP of 6/1 or under, they were successful in doubling up 29.9% of the time. This comes via a record of 58 winners from 194 and generated level stakes profits of 69.22pts, a 35.7% increase on stakes.

4. Top rated (official BHA ratings) 6 yr old males running in class 5 or 6 races on the all-weather at the same class or dropping a grade from the last handicap outing have a strike rate of 18.6% in the last three years (20.6% last year). This is derived from 77 winners from 414 runners for 162.98pts (+39.4% ROI) profit. Last year's figures were 28/136 for 76.81pts (+56.5% ROI).

The three-year figures for Southwell are 16/67 (23.9% SR) for 32.33pts (+48.25% ROI) with 2013 producing 6 winners from 20 for 22.37pts profit.

All of the above criteria fit for Pick A Little here today and as one of only two runners in the race to have tasted success in their last seven races added to the rebooking of Robert Tart to ride, I'm happy to back this one.

So, it's a 1pt win bet on Pick A Little at 11/4 BOG with Paddy Power for me, but I did write this just before 6.30pm on Thursday evening, so you might want to...

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Double Dutch, 20th December 2013

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 20th December 2013

You just couldn't script what happened yesterday. Two horses fell at the eighth fence in our first race. They were nowhere near each other, so the falls weren't related, but Sod's Law was in operation and it was both of our selections hitting the deck within fractions of a second.

Sometimes, you just know it's not your day, I suppose!

I fared better in the second race, where I successfully nominated the 13/8 winner Tagrita (SP 11/8) as well as highlighting the E/W potential of the other Paul Nicholls runner V Neck who was 2nd at advised odds of 7/1. Not official bets as such, but I made a reasonable personal profit from those two runners, though I'd be a liar if I said I'd backed the 13.3/1 exacta!

Yesterday's results were as follows:

Faith Keeper: fell
Farbreaga: fell
---------------------------------
Tagrita: won at 13/8 (SP 11/8)
Padre Tito: 5th at 11/4 (SP 5/2)

Results to date:
89 winning selections from 322 = 27.64%
26 winning doubles in 87 days = 29.89%

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Stakes: 172.00pts
Returns: 176.97pts

P/L : +4.97pts (+2.89% ROI)

The profit level and the strike rate have both dropped to an unsatisfactory level (to me, anyway!) and I'm hoping/expecting to rectify that today with the following:

2.00 Ascot:

Two wins in France and a Kempton victory on his stable debut completed a fragmented hat-trick for the promising Volnay de Thaix and I wouldn't be surprised if he didn't go off at odds on. He currently trades around the 11/10 mark and looks to have a great chance here.

His yard says he's still maturing and they think he'll develop into a decent sort and I think he'll be there or thereabouts again today, but I fancy Irving to overturn the odds here.

Irving was a decent enough performer in Germany at 1m6f, so pace between obstacles should never be an issue and he achieved back to back wins in his two UK starts for Paul Nicholls last month, including a win over course and distance here last time out. The Ditcheat team is absolutely flying at the moment and a price of 5/2 good offers good value to upset the apple cart here.

2.45 Southwell:

As above, I feel the favourite here has a good chance of winning, but I'm going to take this one on as well. Fortinbrass is the likely favourite and is generally available at 2/1 (BetVictor offer slightly more at 85/40) and is always competitive at this level. He's a triple winner at this trip and won a similar contest two starts ago, before struggling up in trip and class in a Wolverhampton handicap a month ago.

He drops back to 6f and Class 6 here and is a dangerous contender off a mark of 78, when he has already won a Class 4 race off 81.

However, I'm going taking a chance on the fitness of Greenhead High, who returns to the track after a break of 31 weeks. If he picks up where he left off in the spring, he could prove to be a nice bet at 9/4. Despite rising in the weights in Feb/march, he rounded off his spring campaign with finishes of 111153228, showing a good level of consistency.

More telling is the fact that he has won his last three efforts on A/W surfaces, all over today's trip and two over course and distance. A Class 5 winner at Wolverhampton on his last A/W run now returns dropping in class and just shades it for me, if fit enough.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Volnay de Thaix / Fortinbrass @ 5.3/1 (Coral : 11/10 & 2/1)
Volnay de Thaix / Greenhead High @ 5.83/1 (Coral, Sky Bet, Stan James : 11/10 & 9/4)
Irving / Fortinbrass @ 9.94/1 (BetVictor : 5/2 & 85/40)
Irving / Greenhead High @ 10.38/1 (BetVictor : 5/2 & 9/4)

P.S. I'm now taking a couple of days off for a long weekend and I'll be back with you for Boxing Day. Matt will, of course, look after you in my absence and I'd like to wish you all a very Happy Christmas.

All the best,
Chris

Stat of the Day, 19th December 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 19th December 2013

Halfsin made a gutsy effort to control the race from the front on Wednesday evening, but finally relinquished the lead with a couple of furlongs to go and the receded through the field, I'm afraid.

The end result was that it was a 10th place (of 12) finish the best part of 16 lengths behind the eventual winner I'm Fraam Govan, who was suggested by one of our readers (Jack Benton) as a likely winner.

More all-weather action for today's selection, as we tackle the...

1.30 Southwell:

I've already mentioned that there are a few profitable microsystems involving USA bred horses at Southwell. Some specify the age of the horse, some specify the distance of the race or the sex of the horse etc etc.

This one is really simple and is profitable at all odds!

Quite simply, back ALL horses with the USA suffix at Southwell provided they haven't already raced here more than twice. Once they race here more often, the market catches on and the value is eroded from the bet.

Every since 2003, this has been profitable at all odds and it's a massive sample size: 311 winners from 1814 races = a 17.14% strike rate and level stakes profits of 664.93pts, a return above stakes of some 36.7%. Not bad at all for a "bet and forget" service.

We can, of course, filter it down to suit, but the only filters I would check personally with something like this would be recent form, odds of selection (in case a few big winners are skewing the figures) and whether or not it was a handicap race.

You could also check the class of race, I suppose. Today's race is a Class 6 handicap by the way!

So, here goes:
2010 to 2013: 126/555 = 22.7% SR for +328.86pts : ROI of 59.25%
Max odds 6/1: 200/703 = 28.45% SR for +115.24pts : ROI of 16.39%
Class 6 races: 121/661 = 18.31% SR for 443.22pts : ROI of 67.05%
Handicap races: 190/1089 = 17.45% for 491.13pts  : ROI of 45.01%

All of which brings us to today's conditions, a Class 6 handicap with a horse priced at 6/1 or under and the figures since 2010 are 46 winners from 148 races (31.08% SR) producing level stakes profits of 51.44pts, or 34.76% of stakes.

The only horse fitting the criteria today is Yasir, who come here attempting to score back to back victories after winning here six days ago. He somewhat ground out a narrow neck victory over a fellow USA horse last time out, but shaped as though he wanted to go further than the mile and a half on offer. Not only that, it should be noted that the third placed horse was a further six lengths back and the runner-up had never run as good a race.

Yasir is up in trip today and has a 6lb penalty to contend with, but I still feel he's running at a mark (69 today) way below his capabilities. He has, in the past, won off 79, so there's still some room for manoeuvre if he's at the top of his game.

Hayley Turner was on board this horse for the first time last time out and she's back in the saddle today and she'll no doubt be keen to double her tally on this one. She's been riding really well since her comeback and I think she's a great chance here.

The positives around winning last time out are tempered by the weight penalty and the step up in trip, which means we're looking to get a similar price about this one to the odds he was sent off at last time out and to this end, I've placed a 1pt win bet on Yasir at 11/4 BOG with Bet365. A couple of other firms are at the same price, so it could prove beneficial to...

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Here is today's racecard!

Double Dutch, 17th December 2013

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 17th December 2013

Half a length was the margin yesterday as we failed to land a 10.81/1 double.

As expected Matraash had just enough in his locker to take the opener at 5/2 (from 7/2) ahead of 3/1 shot A Little Bit Dusty.

I didn't think there'd be much between them and the official distance was in fact, just a nose! There was a nice 8.95/1 forecast here too.

This led us to warm 5/4 (from our 13/8) favourite jazzy Lady, who looked every inch the winner with a furlong to go.

All she had to do was pass the leader and take the race.

Unfortunately she didn't seem happy to pass her rival and after drawing alongside with the victory beckoning, she looked to shy away and eventually went down by half a length, frustratingly taking our bet with her!

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Yesterday's results were as follows:

Matraash: won at 7/2 (SP 5/2)
A Little Bit Dusty: 2nd at 3/1
The forecast paid £9.95 here.
---------------------------------
Jazzy Lady: 2nd at 13/8 (SP 5/4)
Howz The Family: 3rd of 4

Results to date:
86 winning selections from 310 = 27.74%
26 winning doubles in 84 days = 30.95%

Stakes: 166.00pts
Returns: 176.97pts

P/L : +10.97pts (+6.61% ROI)

We're going with the fairer sex in these today:

1.00 Southwell:

The American-bred horses seem to love the surface here at Southwell and Frost Fire looks very interesting on her handicap debut. She has finished 322 in three A/W maidens (Lingfield & Wolverhampton twice), but wasn't disgraced in any of those efforts: in fact the total margin of defeat was 2.5 lengths across all three races.

Joe Fanning has a good record on the mark Johnston horses and this one has a fairly lenient (in my opinion) opening mark of 65 for her handicap debut and I feel she could well be better than that, enabling her to gain her first victory at pretty attractive odds of 3/1 with Stan James.

The big danger, of course, is the 5/2 favourite Ivy Port, who hails from the Michael Appleby yard, whose horses are absolutely flying at present (8 wins from 17 in the last week!). She was badly outpaced in a 7f contest a week ago, but stayed on strongly to get within 2 lengths of the winner.

She'll appreciate the extra furlong today and the way she pulled 8 lengths clear of the third placed horses was impressive enough to suggest she'll be winning again sometime soon, especially as she gets to run off the same mark as last week and she'll be helped by not being out in stall 10 this time!

3.20 Fakenham:

Tim Vaughan's Great Oak is a Grade 3 winner over fences and has run creditably in three hurdles events this winter, winning once and making the frame in the other two. She was third last time out over hurdles to the progressive Mini Muck, who has won twice since.

If she can transfer her chasing ability to a much weaker contest against her own sex, she has every chance of running out a 3/1 winner with Richard Johnson in the saddle, who has a 26% strike rate on Tim Vaughan's hurdlers producing an ROI of almost 33%.

Of the remainder, it would have to be between the 13/8 favourite (BetVictor) Java Rose and the 85/40 shot Sudden Wish. The favourite was the better of the two on the Flat and if she manages to get round unscathed, she should have the better run today.

Not only does Java Rose receive 7lbs from great Oak, but she's back with the in-form Charlie Longsdon again for whom she ran promisingly in three bumpers in the spring.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Java Rose / Ivy Port @ 7.75/1 (SkyBet, Hills and/or Coral : 6/4 & 5/2)
Java Rose / Frost Fire @ 8.38/1 (Boylesports, Seanie Mac : 6/4 & 11/4)
Great Oak / Ivy Port @ 12.12/1 (SkyBet, Hills and/or Coral : 11/4 & 5/2)
Great Oak / Frost Fire @ 13.06/1 (Boylesports, Seanie Mac : 11/4 & 11/4)

Double Dutch, 15th December 2013

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 15th December 2013

I kind of almost got it right yesterday at the same time as getting it very wrong, if that's at all possible! I had a feeling that longer priced horses could well take both races that seemed to lack quality and depth, I just didn't get the right horses!

Race 1 was taken by an 8/1 shot, but not our 8/1 shot and we could only manage 4th and 6th of the 9 runners, as they both faded from contention at the 2 pole.

We fared better half an hour later, with a good E/W performance from 8/1 Jay Bee Blue, but he couldn't get within three lengths of the winner, whilst he had our other runner just behind him.

Yesterday's results were as follows:

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Seek The Fair Land: 4th of 9
George Fenton: 6th of 9
---------------------------------
Jay Bee Blue: 2nd at 8/1 (SP 15/2)
Al's Memory: 3rd at 11/4 (SP 2/1)

Results to date:
84 winning selections from 302 = 27.81%
26 winning doubles in 82 days = 31.71%

Stakes: 162.00pts
Returns: 176.97pts

P/L : +14.97pts (+9.24% ROI)

A couple of UK National Hunt races await us this afternoon:

12.55 Southwell:

Oscar The Myth is of interest here, despite making his first appearance of a racetrack for over 18 months. He was last seen winning a 3m hunter chase at Huntingdon back in May 2012, but he has been kept active and successful in his absence from the track. In his last 5 point to point races, he has finished second on three occasions and has scored one win. If he's sharp enough upon his return, he could land the spoils for his new trainer at odds of 5/2.

There'll be no stamina/fitness worries surrounding Timpo though. From his seven attempts at race longer than three miles, he has only failed to complete once: winning one and finishing second four times in the other six efforts. He hasn't won for a while, but comes here today to run off a mark 2lbs lower than his last winning effort and looks the most likely alternative to the main selection, also at odds of up to 5/2.

1.20 Carlisle:

Since switching back to hurdling after losing his way somewhat over fences, the classy Lie Forrit looks almost back to his best. He has an impressive five wins and 2 places from 10 efforts over the smaller obstacles and comes here on the back of a 2 length defeat in a decent Grade 3 handicap at Haydock last month. Whilst this isn't a bad race as such, it's certainly weaker than that Haydock challenge and the 11/4 currently on offer looks very appealing.

The one most likely to block his progress is Kaki De La Pree from the promising Tom Symonds yard. This lightly-raced 5 yr old is making only his fourth start in the UK and his handicap debut after good progression so far. He won his only Irish Points contest and will get every inch of this 25 furlong trip today.

He looks fairly leniently treated for his handicap debut and the 16lbs he receives from Lie Forrit might just ultimately prove to be the difference between the two, enabling him to take this at 5/2.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Oscar The Myth / Kaki De La Pree @ 11.25/1 (SkyBet, BetVictor, Hills : 5/2 & 5/2)
Oscar The Myth / Lie Forrit @ 12.13/1 (SkyBet, Hills : 5/2 & 11/4)
Timpo / Kaki De La Pree @ 11.25/1 (PP : 5/2 & 5/2)
Timpo / Lie Forrit @ 11.25/1 (PP : 5/2 & 5/2)

Stat of the Day, 15th December 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 15th December 2013

Glen's Melody ultimately proved somewhat of a disappointment for me, the SotD backers and of course, Ruby Walsh who travelled over from Ireland for just the one race.

The horse itself ran well enough until push came to shove and then there was nothing there and he folded tamely to finish 3rd of the 4 runners, some 30 lengths behind the eventual winner.

The only positive to draw from yesterday was our ability to beat the market again, availing ourselves of 3/1 BOG about a 15/8 favourite, in fact I know some of you got 7/2.

Beating SP will bear fruit in the long run and long-term profit is our ultimate goal.

However, a short-term gain wouldn't go amiss from the...

2.35 Southwell:

Tom Symonds has only been training horses for just over two years, but he is rapidly developing  reputation as a man to follow. In fact he's one of those trainers who you would have made a profit from by just backing all his runners.

To date, his stats read 35 winners from 346 (10.12% SR) for 63.16pts profit, an ROI of 18.25%, not bad at all from blind backing.

If we then consider his record in hurdle contests, those figures improve to 25/196 (12.76% SR) for a fantastic 103.04pts profit, a return of 52.6% of stakes.

He also has a strike rate in excess of 25% with hurdlers priced at 7/1 or under and his record here at Southwell with hurdlers is 3/8  (37.5% SR) for 11pts (+137.5% ROI) profit, with all three winners coming from the four horses sent off at 7/1 or under for a return of 15pts (+375% ROI).

His yard is in a spot of form at the moment with three winners from six in the last fortnight and he has three runners here at Southwell today. Trojan Sun runs in a chase at 12.25, leaving two hurdlers to choose from. Of the two, I'm going to overlook Amber Flush who is likely to a longshot outsider in the 1.30 race, all of which brings us to the selection of Midnight Belle.

Midnight Belle comes here today in search of a hat-trick after wins after a win over this trip at Worcester seven weeks ago followed by a course and distance victory here at Southwell five weeks ago.

She finished three lengths ahead of Rattlin that day, who subsequently went on to land a fairly easy win at Wetherby and our mount's 5lb rise for that last win is totally offset by her jockey's claim today.

Any kind of repeat of her latest efforts should be more than enough today for a horse who has achieved four wins and a place from her last six runs. So, I'm placing a 1pt win bet on Midnight Belle at 11/4 BOG with SkyBet. Hills and Coral are also showing 11/4 at the time of press (10pm Saturday).

As is the norm, I post Sunday's selection on the night before the race, so I strongly advise you to...

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Double Dutch, 10th December 2013

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 10th December 2013

After successive wins at 20.6/1 and 41/1, there was no big win yesterday.

However, with another two winners under our belt at 2/1 SP and 85/40 BOG, that was still good enough for us to secure our third win on the bounce at odds of 8.375/1 to keep the recent mini-revival on track.

Yesterday's results were as follows:

It's High Time: won at 2/1
Katachenko: 3rd at 7/2 (SP 11/4)
---------------------------------
Modernism: won at 85/40 (SP 7/4)
Doldrums: 5th at 9/4

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Results to date:
80 winning selections from 284 = 28.17%
25 winning doubles in 77 days = 32.47%

Stakes: 152.00pts
Returns: 171.97pts

P/L : +19.97pts (+13.14% ROI)

7 furlongs on the sand and a novice hurdle have caught my eye today:

1.30 Southwell:

In a race pretty short of recent winners, the consistent Galician can finally break her 9-race losing run. She's been knocking on the door of late with finishes of 2232 in the last seven weeks with two of those efforts being defeats by just a head and a neck in all-weather listed races.

This is an easier assignment than both of those runs and jockey Joe Fanning excels at races over 7f and a mile on the A/W and Galician's current odds of 11/2 at Ladbrokes could well look big come the finish.

The major threat is likely to come from the 11/4 (SkyBet) favourite Dubai Hills whose record here at Southwell reads 3111111 and now bids for the 7-timer, with 4 of those wins being over course and distance and is only rated a pound higher than the last of his course wins back in March. This could be a lively affair.

1.40 Fontwell:

I really like Lily Waugh for this one and at 15/8 with BetVictor, actually looks a decent proposition for me to have a singles bet later. She was second in a listed bumper at Cheltenham in mid-November with a couple of today's rivals more than 10 lengths behind and looks well placed to score on her hurdling debut. Jumping shouldn't be an issue, as she's a former Point winner in Ireland and her bumper form shows she can outrun them at this level.

I'd expect the biggest challenge to come from Roja Dove, a former winner over 7f and a mile on the flat, ensuring good speed between the hurdles and comes here in good order. She has contested three hurdle races since her last flat outing in August and has won twice before finishing second in a decent grade 3 contest at Down Royal six weeks ago.

Roja Dove is currently priced around the 4/1 mark and those odds look quite attractive for a horse of her undoubted ability and should Lily Waugh not quite fire today, this one could be making a swift return to winning ways.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Dubai Hills / Lily Waugh @ 9.3125/1 with SkyBet & Coral (11/4 & 7/4)
Dubai Hills / Roja Dove @ 19.625/1 with BetInternet (11/4 & 9/2)
Galician / Lily Waugh @ 16.25/1 with BetVictor (5/1 & 15/8)
Galician / Roja Dove @ 29.25/1 with BetInternet (9/2 & 9/2)

Stat of the Day, 10th December 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 10th December 2013

No excuses and no regrets from yesterday, Cape of Hope just wasn't good enough on the day. He ran well enough to the 2 pole, and when he was asked for an effort, he wasn't as quick home as three other horses.

No deep analysis needed, he was just beaten by better performers and the end result was a 4th place at 100/30, a good third shorter than our 5/1 advisory price.

We might lose from time to time, but long-term profit is guaranteed when we get 5/1 about 10/3 shots.

More A/W action for Tuesday as we tackle the...

2.30 Southwell:

Much has already been said elsewhere about the prevalence of horses with a (USA) suffix when running at Southwell, yet they still make a profit for backers, despite it being common knowledge. This, of course, can't last forever and it won't be long before it becomes unprofitable to just back them all blindly.

That said, today's selection is a (USA) horse running at Southwell but I've narrowed down the criteria somewhat to arrive at a position where I've just placed a 1pt win bet on Hussar Ballad at pretty fair odds of 4/1 BOG with Bet365 and here's why...

In the 2011/13 period, 4-year-old males with the (USA) suffix running races from 5 furlongs up to 1m4f have won 22 races from 86 attempts, a strike rate of 25.6% and this has produced level stakes profits of 100.46pts , or 116.8% of stakes.

Today's contest is a Class 6 contest, where these American runners have won 12 from 41 (29.3%) in the same 2011/13 time span for profits of 55pts (+134.1%) and all 12 winners came from the 34 runners priced at 12/1 or under for a strike rate of 35.3% and level stakes profits of 62pts, the equivalent of a whopping 182.4% of stakes invested.

The last such winner of those 12 was today's selection Hussar Ballad, who won here at Southwell three weeks on his only A/W run to date. He took to the surface readily and quickened once he hit the front with a furlong to go, scoring by a good 4 lengths. He has been raised 9lbs for that win, but it is hoped/expected that the drop back in trip will help him cope with the added burden, plus there's every opportunity that he'll come on again for that first effort.

Some of you may already have drilled down into the USA stats and arrived at a similar conclusion, but you might not be as aware of a secondary stat to back up our selection.

With an official rating (OR) of 59, Hussar Ballad is top rated for this race and also top weight accordingly, but this isn't an issue. In 2013, top-rated male runners running at Southwell in the same class of race as they did last time out have a really good record. In Class 5 and 6 contests, when sent off at prices between Evens and 6/1, they've already notched up 15 winners from 45 attempts.

A 1 in 3 strike rate is excellent for top weighted horses and has been able to provide 18.9pts profit, an ROI of 42%.

There's enough there to make me think there's some mileage in the selection, so the play for Tuesday is a 1pt win bet on Hussar Ballad at 4/1 BOG with Bet365. I've written this on Monday evening, so if you're only seeing this on Tuesday, I strongly suggest that you...

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Double Dutch, 3rd December 2013

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 3rd December 2013

We drew another blank yesterday in what is proving to be a testing time for the double dutch. We had to settle for a pair of runner-up positions yesterday, although the bare results look better than the actual performances.

Mister Wiseman was beaten by a good 12 lengths and although Rural Affair was only just held off by a head, it was to a horse that I had completely dismissed out of hand. My 8 yr old daughter remarked "Oh, Dad! You got that very wrong didn't you?"  She was, of course, entirely correct, as 8 yr old girls always are!

Yesterday's results were as follows:

Mister Wiseman: 2nd at 9/4 (SP 2/1)
Further More: 4th
---------------------------------
Rural Affair: 2nd at 2/1
Ragged Robbin: last of 5!

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Results to date:
73 winning selections from 257 = 28.40%
22 winning doubles in 70 days = 31.43%

Stakes: 138.00pts
Returns: 135.50pts

P/L : -2.50pts (-1.81% ROI)

I need to arrest this recent slide and today would be a good day to do this! Hopefully, these two races will be the key to a return to profitability:

12.45 Southwell:

15/8 favourite Last Shot takes on Moorlands Jack again, just as they did three weeks ago at Exeter over today's trip and although today's favourite prevailed that day, I fancy Moorlands Jack to turn the tables from that 4 lengths defeat here.

Moorlands Jack has rested since then and will come here fresher and meets Last Shot on 7lb better terms and in conditions better suited than last time out. He seems to prefer the left-handed tracks and the better the ground is, the more likely he is to succeed at a decent price of 11/4.

There won't be much in it, as Last Shot is running really well and was only narrowly (SH) defeated at Ludlow at a higher level than this last time out and gets to run off the same mark as that Class 3 outing. This has the makings of a decent contest between the two.

3.30 Sedgefield:

Donald McCain loves sending his horses here and has a 33% strike rate here in the last three years and his horses are flying at present (7/19 in the last week). He runs Vasco Pierji in this bumper with a view to going one better than his narrow defeat on debut at Perth almost 6 months ago. It's currently a 5/4 chance that the McCain team's record in Sedgefield bumpers will improve from its current 8 from 19 over the last three years.

The major rival for the prize has to be AP's mount Fly Home Harry, who currently trades at around the 7/4 mark. This one held on well to score on debut at Ayr a month ago in very testing conditions and looks set for another good run here. I'd have expected this to be clear favourite, but for having to concede 7lbs to the McCain horse. That said, I expect this to be a close match.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Last Shot / Vasco Pierji @ 6.48 with BetVictor
Last Shot / Fly Home Harry @ 8.29 with Stan James
Moorlands Jack / Vasco Pierji @ 8.25 with William Hill
Moorlands Jack / Fly Home Harry @ 10.80 with William Hill

Stat of the Day, 26th November 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 26th November 2013

Dansili Dutch was friendless in the market on Monday afternoon, but the horses never know what price they get sent off at!

Our  selection was advised at 3/1 BOG, but eventually ran out a 5/1 winner, a shade cosier than the official one length margin of victory. We're staying on the all-weather today, as we tackle the...

2.40 Southwell:

Where the 4yr old USA-bred gelding Ever Fortune tackles a 1m4f Class 5 handicap and is currently a 5/1 shot.

This horse was formerly with Rae Guest, but is now under the eye of Brian Ellison, for who he makes his yard debut today. Brian Ellison has an excellent record from recruits from other yards with 24.8% of his immigrants scoring first time out. The raw stats are 23 wins from 118 runs in the last three years for level stakes profits of 54.4pts (+46.1% ROI).

It's also pretty well documented that some USA-bred horses go well here at Southwell. Males running in handicaps at trips of 1m6f or less in fields of 8 to 13 runners have won 20 of 67 races in that same 2011/13 timeframe, with the 29.9% strike rate yielding 126.9pts (+189.4% ROI) profit with 2013 seeing 4 winners from 15 for 27.7pts.

4yr old males go particularly well here too: 26 winners at all odds from 102 attempts is a 25.5% strike rate and the level stakes profits are very good too: 102.6pts or 100.6% of stakes with 15 winners priced under 6/1 from 51 runners (39.4% SR) These 15 have generated 14.6pts, a return of 28.6%.

There's three strong stats to back up Ever Fortune here, but it's a little surprising to see him as long as 5/1. I can only put it down to his A/W inexperience and the presence in the field of Golden Jubilee who looks too short for me at 7/4. The favourite is certainly consistent, but he's up in both trip and grade here and could well get caught out.

I think there's some value in the price of our selection, so it's a 1pt win bet on Ever Fortune at 5/1 BOG. This price is widely available, so please...

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Stat of the Day, 28th August 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 28th August 2013

We felt the benefit of perseverance as we reused a set of stats that got us a 15/2 runner-up on Monday to land ourselves a 9/2 winner yesterday. Khalice was very volatile in the markets and after I'd selected her at 9/2 BOG. Initially she shortened, before drifting out as far 13/2. She was, however, sent off as the 11/4 favourite and won quite cosily in the end.

She grabbed the rail and the lead very early in the race and then proceeded to make all. She needed a reminder or two as the pack closed in to within a half-length at the furlong pole, before running on well to win by a couple of lengths whilst still pulling away. I know some of you managed to get on at 6/1, some even managed the 13/2, but it's officially a very welcome 4.5pts profit from our fourth winning bet in the last week.

We're still slightly down for the month as a whole and I've four chances left to correct that starting today in the...

5.50 Southwell

Where Kingscombe is currently available at 6/1 BOG with both Paddy Power and Coral.

This 4yr old USA-bred grey is trained by Linda Jewell, who is very profitable to back here at Southwell. Despite her 9 winners from 88 runners only showing a modest strike rate of 10.23%, I'm more interested in the excellent level stakes profits of 86.5pts from those races at SP. That ROI of 98.3% is good enough anyway, but just imagine what that could have been at early BOG prices!

Horses with the USA suffix to the name like Kingscombe seem to go particularly well here at Southwell. I'm guessing that this track is possibly the closest thing we have to the American dirt tracks, but that's just my hunch. But whatever the reason the stats stand out for themselves.

USA-bred male runners aged between three and five years old are especially profitable to follow here at Southwell when racing at trips of a mile or shorter. Since the start of 2011, the record is 50 wins from 219 (22.83%) for profits of some 113.65pts at betfair SP (the closest approximation to BOG odds). This represents an ROI of 51.9%. Four year olds (like Kingscombe) were responsible for over half of that profit: 67.23pts (= ROI of 94.7%) via 16 winners from 71 (22.5% SR)

Kingscombe's overall form to date is patchy at best, in fact it's pretty poor. From his 14 starts to date, he has won twice and has been unplaced in each of his other 12 races. He has performed particularly poorly on turf with his best result being a 6th place (from 9 runners!) at Chepstow. He does, thankfully, go better on the All-Weather with a record reading 61771 with him having a two from two record here at Southwell.

His 100% record here comes after winning over both 7f and a mile and if he's in the mood, has every chance of extending the sequence. Based on course form and/or course and distance form alone, he'd be much shorter in the market but I think his poor run on turf is being reflected in the current odds available.

Nevertheless, I'm happy to back Kingscombe at 6/1 BOG with Coral, reinvesting some of yesterday's winnings, I'm going win only again, but there's enough in that price to take the safer E/W option if you prefer. Paddy Power are also offering the same odds, so I'd suggest that you...

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