Stat of the Day, 14th July 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 14th July 2013

Dumbarton traveled like the winner before not picking up as we might have hoped yesterday, but still finishing a clear second at 5/1.

We'll take a chance on an easy lead today in the...

2.10 Southwell

Aytach Sadik is not the most well known training name on the block, but he is a capable enough handler. In Apache Dawn, he has a real Southwell stalwart, and a horse optimally favoured by conditions.

This is a Class 5, good ground, handicap chase over two miles. Apache Dawn has run in two Class 5 handicap chases here over two miles, and finished 12. They were his most recent starts, and he did really well when second because he was hassled and harried for the lead by favourite Truckers Benefit (eventually pulled up).

Today he looks set to get the lead on his own, and that might be crucial. If he does, I think he'll win.

Ground, trip, track, class are all in his favour, and that last time out second was off the same mark as today.

The racecard for this contest is here.

He's currently a 7/2 shot BOG with Coral and Stan James, and that - win only - will do for me...

Click here for the latest betting on the 2.10 Southwell

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Stat of the Day, 10th June 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 10th June 2013

Mumbles Head was sent off the 4/1 favourite yesterday, but that was no good to us or those other punters whose money moved his price so much, as he trailed in a never threatening eighth of thirteen.

We try again today at Southwell, where it's jump action this evening...

6.40 Southwell

It's low grade stuff, but every race has a winner, and some can be easier to predict than others. I'm hoping that's the case here, as I side with a likely favourite, albeit at a reasonable price.

Apache Dawn endured thirteen fruitless chase runs before finally getting off the mark and then, like buses, two wins came along at once. I'm hoping he can land the hat-trick today in this 0-95 handicap chase. 

Aytach Sadik's nine-year-old is actually pretty consistent over this course, having recorded form figures of 332231 across both hurdles and chases. Those figures read 31 for course and distance chases. Clearly, he likes it round here.

Given his new lease of life, and a chase mark of just 85, he has a chance to go in again today after short break since his last win. A general 3/1, Best Odds Guaranteed, is fair enough, and it's win only, naturally.

Click here for the latest betting on the 6.40 Southwell

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Stat of the Day, 16th April 2013

Stat of the Day: 16/04/13

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 16th April 2013

A bit frustrating yesterday as our 12/1 pick, Choral Festival, was well backed into 8/1 and travelled really well into the race. Alas, when Willie Twiston-Davies asked her to pick up, she didn't find much at all, and was beaten a short head and a neck out of third. It was probably race fitness (or lack of) which told, and that was the danger. She's definitely a mare to keep onside throughout the Windsor season, as she absolutely loves it there, and is versatile as regards trip and ground.

The beach for us this afternoon, and a low grade handicap, the...

5.00 Southwell

A trainer in white hot form just now is Roy Bowring. He's not one of the higher profile handlers by any stretch of the imagination, but he has his share of winners, many of them here at Southwell.

In the last couple of weeks, Bowring has run eleven horses. Five have won and another three have placed. Today, he saddles two: one in the maiden at 2.10 (Solarmaite, has a fair chance), and Xpres Maite here.

Xpres Maite is hardly a handicap plot, having had 91 runs under rules, and now being a ten year old. But he's a good old stick round here, and doesn't have much to find with the favourite on slighter better terms than when they last ran.

Add in the fact that he completely missed the break that day - which, in fairness, he can do - and it was a reasonably meritorious effort. Now, let's not get carried away: this is a low grade Class 6 event at Southwell. It won't take much winning, and Xpres Maite is proven under today's conditions and in form.

He's a general 7/1 shot, Best Odds Guaranteed, and that'll do for me.

Click here for the latest betting on the 5.00 Southwell

Stat of the Day, 23rd March 2013

Stat of the Day: 23/03/13

Stat of the Day: 23/03/13

Stat of the Day, 23rd March 2013

First things first, I'd like to wish my wife a very happy anniversary!

Our powder was kept dry yesterday (despite the horrendous weather), as Welsh Sunrise was withdrawn shortly before noon..

So, onto today's affair, which is a trip to Nottinghamshire for a one-mile Class 6 handicap, as just five runners contest the...

4.50 Southwell

It's a case of Hobson's Choice today, as Southwell is the only place in the UK & Ireland to host any racing, so let's crack on and see what we can unearth.

David Nicholls has certainly got his horses at the top of their game at present with eight winners and a place from just seventeen attempts over the last month, recording level stakes profits of just under 24pts in the process.

He also enjoys success when he comes to Southwell with a record in handicaps here of 8 winners from 20 in the last year. This 40% strike rate has yielded 33.5pts (167.5%) profits at level stakes, whilst E/W backers have had a return from 9 out of 17 (52.94%) of their bets for a healthy 41.4pts = 121.8% of stakes invested.

His sole runner here today is Rasselas, who is likely to be the outsider of the five runners, but should give a decent account of himself once more.

This horse won at Wolverhampton last year and was far from disgraced last time out, also at Wolverhampton. He was 5th that time, but the result doesn't tell the whole story. That race was a furlong longer than today's trip and he was only headed inside the final 200 yards that day and without his usual visor.

The visor is reapplied today and when allied to a drop down in trip gives him a much better chance of seeing the race out strongly.

He is the outsider of five and the inclusion of a pretty warm favourite means we can get a decent price for our selection today. Therefore, the call is a 0.5pts E/W bet on Rasselas at 6/1 BOG with Stan James, who will give you a free £10 bet when signing up and wagering a tenner of your own money.

Of course, prices can change, so make sure you...

Click here for the latest betting on the 4.50 Southwell

Stat of the Day, 6th November 2012

Stat of the Day, 6th November 2012

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Mush Mir ran better than his finishing position suggests yesterday, and will be winning again soon (in a small field when he can lead).

Today it's the fibresand, an excellent trainer with a brilliant record at the course, and the…

3.40 Southwell

One of the most under-rated and under-stated of flat trainers, is Hughie Morrison. His record, in handicaps especially, in recent years bears close scrutiny, despite a leaner time this term.

On Southwell's deep surface, his record is second to none, with 28 winners from 89 runners (30.34%) since 2005. Those winners have netted profits of 48.77 units at SP.

Today he saddles the lightly raced maiden, Place That Face, and she looks to have her best chance of victory yet. So far, in a five race career, she's finished second twice and third twice. Her latest run was a silver medal over course and distance in a similar race to this, where she was no match for the winner but had everything else a length and a half and more behind.

That was her first run since February and she's entitled to be a lick fitter here. The opposition is typically modest - we rarely see a future top class racer exit a Southwell maiden -  and Gaelic Wizard might be the chief threat. But that fellow gives the impression he's a weak finisher as he's been beaten by a neck or less on his last three starts.

This will also be the Wizard's first attempt at Southwell's more testing strip, and I'd prefer to side with a filly which has shown she can act on it, as not all horses do. Place That Face looks like she does.

It's not a two horse race, though, as both Ella Fitzgerald and Finefrenzyrolling offer a fair level of form.

But Hughie knows what he's doing, and his filly has improvement on her second start off a break, and I'm betting win only Place That Face. No odds at time of writing, but I'm expecting around 11/4 to be available (as it is on Betfair currently).

Click here for the latest betting on the 3.40 Southwell


Stat of the Day, 16th July 2012

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day: 16th July 2012

Three winners on the bounce now (excluding the non-runner on Friday), after Passato won gamely from the front, as predicted right here. Mondays are always tough, and today is no exception, so it's with a laboured eye that I scanned the card for an opportunity. The  most presentable of a moderate lot was in the…

3.15 Southwell

Again, it's a horse for course stat, and a horse which can be expected to improve on recent form figures of 067.

The horse in question is called Flying Pickets, and he's running in a seven furlong Southwell claimer. His last three runs were over a mile and a quarter on heavy turf, six furlongs here, and seven furlongs at Wolverhampton.

On the first two of those he was plum last - unsurprising, considering how different from his favoured conditions those were. But then, last time out, although only finishing seventh, he was actually beaten just two and three-quarter lengths.

Today, over seven at Southwell, he's expected to be ready. Indeed, his form figures at today's track/trip are 21112, which looks a little more appealing, no?

His record in claimers is 3224122. Clearly, he's game enough, even if his running style doesn't lend itself especially well to Southwell (he's a closer on what is generally a speed favouring track). Today's race has some early toe in it, courtesy of Vogarth, Elusive Warrior, and particularly Nezami, so he might just get his head in front if they go off lovely and quick, and come back to him.

Even if he doesn't, I'm very hopeful he'll at least make the frame, which means 13/2 with Skybet is worth a look.

Those good old Skybet boys will also give you a completely free tenner bet if you don't have an account with them. Just click the banner below and you can have a fiver each way on them. 🙂


Click here for the latest odds for the 3.15 Southwell.