Glen Buck produced a tremendous display to claim the £30 In Free Bets With BetUK Handicap at Southwell, as all-weather racing kept the show on the road on Saturday evening.
Trained by Roger Varian, the six-year-old had impressed in two victories on the all-weather in early 2023, but spent over 600 days on the sidelines before returning to finish third at Wolverhampton in November.
Having blown away the cobwebs during that promising reappearance, he was sent off 5-2 for the feature class three handicap on a bitter Saturday evening in Nottinghamshire, and travelled stylishly through the middle-distance event for Jack Mitchell.
Having cruised into contention, he readily accounted for Andrew Balding’s Old Harrovian at the finish, returning a winning distance of three-quarters of a length which perhaps underestimates the ease of the success, with 11-8 favourite Moon Over Miami only fourth in the hands of Hector Crouch.
Mitchell told Sky Sports Racing: “It was a lovely performance and he’s still a really inexperienced horse.
“The way the race panned out I was in the box seat with loads of cover and everything went really to plan. When I asked him to quicken he was still just a bit unsure about things, but the other horse helped me get competitive and he stuck his neck out.
“He’s galloped right out and you might see him over a bit further in time. Fair play to Roger and his team and hopefully he will be a nice horse to take us through to the (new) season.
“All being well he stays fit and healthy (we will see him again soon), I’m not sure what the plan is but I would like that to be the plan.
“I think a mile and a half would be within range and he’s learning all the time. Today we went up in trip and he kind of jumped into the bridle a furlong down the back and I had to say ‘whoa’ to him and he came back, he’s pretty easy to deal with.”
Crouch may have been out of luck on Moon Over Miami but he enjoyed success aboard Jack Jones’ Star Of Atlantis (100-30) in the Boost Your Acca At BetMGM Classified Stakes, before making all to secure a double on Hugo Palmer’s Misty Sky (9-2) in the Best Odds Guaranteed At BetMGM Handicap.
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/277445487-scaled.jpg12802560Geegeez Newshttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngGeegeez News2025-01-04 17:38:142025-01-04 17:38:14Glen Buck stays upwardly mobile with stylish Southwell success
Kim Bailey and Mat Nicholls’ training partnership got off to a perfect start as their first runner Moon Rocket obliged in style at Southwell on New Year’s Day.
Gold Cup and Grand National-winning handler Bailey had always promised his long-time assistant Nicholls that he would add him to the training licence once he passed the 1,500 career winners landmark.
That was achieved thanks to Chianti Classico’s victory at Ascot in October, with Bailey soon putting the wheels in motion for change at his Thorndale Farm base.
Bailey’s last winner in his own right came at Doncaster on December 29, but no time was wasted in welcoming Nicholls to the winner’s enclosure and cementing their new association.
Trainer Kim Bailey has been joined on the training licence by Mat Nicholls (John Walton/PA)
Bailey said: “I’m absolutely delighted, Mat’s been with me for a long time.
“We had an agreement for a long time that he would come on board after I got to 1,500 winners, it has taken me slightly longer than normal but it’s the future and I’m very pleased for him that we have started with a winner.”
For Nicholls, Southwell proved a fitting place to register his first winner as a trainer having spent many of his formative years at the course and he was thrilled to see his name on the scoresheet.
He said: “I’m absolutely delighted and it’s been a long-time coming. I’ve been in racing for the best part of 30 years and it is great that Kim and myself are able to do this going forwards together.
“Southwell is the course I used to go to a lot growing up, so it means a lot my first winner is here.
“We’re delighted to get started and hopefully it is onwards and upwards from here.”
Nicholls is also hopeful of a bright future for Moon Rocket after he enhanced his reputation and remained unbeaten when stepping up in trip for the Jordan Volumix Concrete Novices’ Hurdle.
Sent off the 2-5 favourite after impressing at Doncaster in an easy win over Rebecca Curtis’ Newton Tornado in November, he again dazzled when sauntering home eight lengths clear of the opposition, with the victory potentially earning a return to Town Moor for the Grade Two Albert Bartlett River Don Novices’ Hurdle on January 25.
What a start for the @kimbaileyracing and Mat Nicholls partnership!
“When we watched the horse he beat at Doncaster run so well at Cheltenham, expectation levels rose even more and there was a big turnout for him here,” continued Nicholls.
“He’s a nice horse and we hoped he might be able to do something like that. We’ve always liked him and would have been disappointed if he had been beaten today.
“He’s probably entitled to have a go at something a little bit better now and maybe something like the River Don back at Doncaster would be up his street at the end of the month.
“He has plenty of stamina and is going to be a very nice staying chaser one day, but in the meantime he could be a very nice staying horse over hurdles.”
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/275607688-scaled.jpg12802560Geegeez Newshttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngGeegeez News2025-01-01 15:35:252025-01-01 15:35:25Rocket fires for new Bailey and Nicholls partnership
Currumbin provided Kieran Shoemark with his 100th winner of the year at Southwell – and at the same time helped trainer Michael Keady begin his new career in the best possible fashion.
Keady has been on a joint-licence with Mike Murphy in Bedfordshire, but having taken out a lease on Revida Place on Newmarket’s Hamilton Road, he is now going it alone.
A graduate of the British Racing School, his aim was to become a jockey but he clearly has a talent for training instead.
Currumbin was sent off the 9-4 favourite and despite being slowly away in the Build Your Acca With BetUK Handicap, never looked like being beaten.
“I’m absolutely delighted, the horse is owned by a syndicate I run with my best friend Dan and it’s his birthday today. My first runner and Kieran’s 100th – I’m delighted for everyone, it’s a great start,” Keady told Sky Sports Racing.
“I’m looking forward to what the future holds, it’s very exciting and I’m very grateful for the support of all my owners, especially Jim Gill who helped set me up, hopefully I can reward him with a winner.
“I’ve a runner on Sunday at Lingfield (Ravensbourne) so hopefully we can keep the 100 per cent strike rate going.”
For Shoemark, now attached to the John and Thady Gosden yard, it was a first century.
“I’m thrilled, it’s been a bit of a target for a while now and I’m delighted for Michael,” he said.
“I’d ridden plenty for him when he was in partnership with Michael Murphy so I’m thrilled for him to get his first winner.
“Without a doubt Friendly Soul winning the Prix de l’Opera was the highlight of my year and I’ve been very lucky to ride some good horses.”
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/277210536-scaled.jpg12802560Geegeez Newshttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngGeegeez News2024-12-19 13:55:552024-12-19 13:55:55Southwell winner is notable for Kieran Shoemark and Michael Keady
First of all, an apology; it's been well over two months since the last of these course missives which is very slack of me, writes David Massey. So I'd like to apologise to Geegeez readers for this tardiness, and to our dear leader, Matt, who I bumped into at the recent HWPA awards. It was good to see the Racing Post win an award or two, they barely win anything, do they? Anyway, I was two seats down from Jeremy Kyle and you'll be delighted to hear he's every bit as entertaining away from the telly as off it. Read what you like into that.
The reason for all this dither and delay, as Boris might have said before he vanished, is simple. I am, of course, in the process of setting up and getting Trackside off the ground alongside my new work-wife Vicki and, frankly, she's very demanding. (Not like that, you filthy lot. Get your minds out the gutter.) The last three months have been something of a whirlwind - if I'm not at a fixture doing paddock reporting then there's notes to type up, or Vicki's cracking the admin whip at me, which is very disconcerting.
I'm not really very business minded, see. A couple of weeks ago a well-known bookmaker's rep offered me a fresh account in exchange for the Trackside services. I was all for it - who wouldn't be, eh? - before Vicki stepped in at the last minute and demanded a five-figure sum instead. See what I mean? I was ready to trade for some magic beans but no, she is insistent people pay actual money for our services. Spoils all my fun, she does.
Anyway, you don't want to know all about that. I'll deal with her as we go along. What you want to know about is where I've been and what I've seen.
Well, as I suspected might be the case, leaving the rails behind and seeing more of the actual courses does offer pause for reflection. I've been to Cheltenham twice already this year, for the October and November meetings. On the plus side, getting your 10,000 steps a day in is easy, but getting around, less so.
It's very much the Insta generation at Cheltenham these days, I'm finding. A race will be in progress but that's taking second place to showing others what a great time you're having by constantly taking selfies, ideally with the course in the background. We're told they're engaging with it all, but the number of times I hear people cheering for a number, not a name, rather suggests otherwise. Perhaps I'm old and wizened (no, really) but if you're gonna shout for something, shout for your horse, or the jockey, not the saddlecloth.
In the interests of some balance, I do think the Invades student days, which seem to be very well run, are a good thing. If you get 5000 students in and take a 10% retention rate, that's 500 you've got coming back another day when it isn't a student day. That's how we build the future, I think.
I contrast that to Wetherby and Charlie Hall Chase Day. Whilst they were in the paddock and walking round for the main event, they were showing the big race from Down Royal on the screen next to the parade ring. Every pair of eyes was transfixed as little Hewick led them a merry dance, cat-like at every fence, and by the time we have reached two out, the crowd at Wetherby was clearly on his side. Envoi Allen joins him at the last but like the terrier he is he won't lie down, and he's getting every encouragement from Yorkshire to stick his head back in front. The disappointment when he fails by half a length to get back up can literally be heard in a collective sigh from the crowd, but that's swiftly followed by people chattering to each other about what a great race they've just witnessed. Engagement? By the truckload, if you ask me.
Anyway, wasn't it great to see The Real Whacker bounce back to form? He looked an absolute picture beforehand, the best I'd seen him for some while. I suspect there's another big race in him before the season is out.
We've even had a glimpse of the Insta mob at Southwell this autumn. No, really. We had a Ladies Evening there on a Saturday night a few weeks back and the fairly youngish crowd were in full selfie mode. One young lady had a £2 bet, came back up ten minutes later and asked if she'd won. I told her the race hadn't started yet. "OH, WHY DOES HORSE RACING TAKE SO LONG?" she exclaimed. I told her she should be here on a Monday night in January when time literally goes backwards. You have a few races, think it's about half seven, look at your watch and realise it's only just gone five. Now those are long.
I've had my first visit to Ludlow this season too. Like Fakenham, Ludlow is hours from anywhere in the UK and you stumble on the track almost by accident if you take the back way via Much Wenlock, the home of the Olympic Games. (Yes it is, Google it.) The first you know about it is when the car suddenly starts going sideways. There's nothing wrong with your car, you're merely driving over one of the huge mats they have on the road crossings, and the vehicle turns into a giant steerable crab. Great fun. If you've not been to Ludlow, you should - decent racing, good grub you aren't charged a fortune for, one of the best rooftop views in the game, and a blue phone booth with The Rules Of Racing in it. It's worth the long drive. Just don't do that and then Fakenham the next day.
The good lady and I have also made our yearly excursion to the West Country to enjoy the Haldon Gold Cup/Badger Beer double-header. It was a real shame Exeter's card cut up so badly on the day but we did get to see one of our favourite horses in training, the wonderful JPR One, win the big race. He's just a gorgeous horse to look at, always full of enthusiasm for the game, and he does look to have come on again physically from last year. He ran again at Sandown in the Tingle Creek and was far from disgraced in finishing third to Jonbon, and with Djelo, second at Exeter, winning the Peterborough Chase the next day, that looks a solid piece of form now.
The drive to Wincanton on the Saturday takes us through one of the best-named villages in England, the wonderful Queen Camel. I'm fairly sure I've backed a few of those this year. When I'm in charge of things mares handicap hurdles will become consigned to history. The last time I backed a winner in one of those contests I got paid in tanners, I swear.
Anyway, we were also at Sandown at the weekend and my word, was it ever cold and windy. I'm amazed the Saturday fixture was on. Outside our hotel that morning was a sign advertising a steak house. Only thing was the steakhouse was about half a mile away, so far had the sign been blown in the night. Foolishly I'd left my Equidry coat at home but Vicki was wearing hers - a present for her birthday the day before - although she hadn't worked out how the zip worked. She might have a sharp business mind but she's useless with fasteners. Can't have everything. I think our big takeaway from the day was how very quiet Jonbon was before the Tingle Creek, a contrast to his usual exuberant self. It didn't stop him, though. Is he growing up a bit? On this, you'd have to say yes.
It's looking like a quiet week ahead with Leicester underwater already, although I'll be at Warwick on Thursday before moving on to Cheltenham for the weekend. Vicki is staying at home, which is bad news for her if I'm offered a new betting account at any point over those three days. Ah, she won't even know. Anyone want a bobble hat?
Say hello if you see me anywhere, won't you?
- DM
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/LudlowRacecourse.jpg319830David Masseyhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngDavid Massey2024-12-11 09:29:402024-12-11 09:29:40Roving Reports: Compare and Contrast
A few weeks back I looked at some recent run style data in National Hunt racing, writes Dave Renham. You can view part one here and part two here. It has been three years since I last looked at all-weather run style biases so, in this article, I will re-visit that topic and share the top ten front-running biases in terms of course and distance (CD) combinations. Well, my top ten anyway.
Data has been taken from 1st January 2020 to the present day with the focus on UK courses. I have concentrated on handicaps with seven or more runners which gives us a decent sample size for each CD. It should be noted that the surface at Southwell changed at the end of 2021 so for this course I have taken data from that later point.
Introduction
Regular readers may skip the next couple of paragraphs to the dashed line, as I explain the terminology and methodology. What we mean by run style is the position a horse takes up early on in the race, normally within the first furlong, which often defines its running preference. geegeez.co.uk has created some powerful resources to look at run style in the Tools tab, as well as an individual race view within the 'Pace' tab on each racecard. The research tools are the Pace Analyser and the Query Tool which Gold subscribers can use to undertake this type of research. Running style is often linked with the word ‘pace’ because the early pace shown by horses in a race determines what position they take up within that first furlong or so. Hence, for many, the words run style and pace are interchangeable.
The stats I am sharing here are based on this site’s pace / run style data. The data on Geegeez is split into four brackets – Led (4), Prominent (3), Mid Division (2) and Held Up (1). The number in brackets is the run style score that is assigned to each bracket.
The numbers are really helpful as they enable us to drill down into them to build a better picture and understanding of how important run style can be. Below is a basic breakdown of which type of horse fits which type of run style profile:
Led – horses that lead early, horses that dispute the early lead. I refer to the early leader as the front-runner.
Prominent – horses that lie up close to the pace just behind the leader(s).
Mid Division – horses that race mid pack or just behind the mid-point.
Held up – horses that are held up at, or near the back of the field.
-----------------
Top Ten All-Weather Run Style Biases
It is time to start the countdown:
10. Kempton 7f
Over 7f at the Sunbury-on-Thames track front-runners have won 56 of the 289 races which equates to 19.4% of the sample. Hold up horses have won one more, giving them a total of 57 winning races (19.7%). However, on average there have been three to four hold up horses in each race (actual average for Kempton 7f = 3.54), whereas front-runners have (led or contested the lead) averaged 1.23 runners per race. This means that an individual front-runner has been nearly three times as likely to win as an individual hold up horse.
Looking at the A/E indices for all four run styles helps to demonstrate the front-running edge:
An A/E index of over 1.00 indicates ‘value’, so 1.25 means front-runners are good value. Hold Up horses, however, at a lowly A/E index of 0.6 have offered very poor value to bettors.
9. Lingfield 6f
Staying in the south we move to Lingfield. Splitting the run style results by A/E indices again, we see similar figures for front-runners and hold up horses at the 6f trip there to those we saw for Kempton’s 7f trip:
Here we have the more traditional run style graph sloping down from left to right when there is a front-running bias ‘in play’. In the graph for Kempton’s 7f, the 'mid-division' figure was higher than the 'prominent' one, which is slightly unusual.
At Lingfield over six furlongs, just over 20% of all races have been won by the front-runner(s). If, pre-race, you had predicted the early leader(s) in every qualifying 6f handicap you would have made a profit to SP of £65.05 to £1 level stakes. This equates to returns of just over 25 pence in the £. Of course, it's not always that simple.
8. Chelmsford 1m
This is only time a mile race distance makes the list. Generally, the shorter the distance the stronger the front-running bias. Chelmsford is the only course to have four different distances in the top ten and is a very strong contender for the most front-runner favouring circuit. Below is a table comparing the wins to runs ratio within each run style group, as well as their each way stats, A/E indices and Impact Values (IVs):
As the table shows, front-runners are clearly best across all metrics. They have won over 16% within their group, which due to the occasional race where two horses vie for the early lead, actually means that 20.6% of all races have been won by these pace setters. The A/E index of 1.30 is the highest we have seen so far.
7. Kempton 6f
Back to Kempton now and the slightly shorter 6f trip. 21.2% of all races over this track and range have been won by the front-runner(s), and if you had backed them pre-race at £1 level stakes using your crystal ball, this would have turned a profit of £99.05 (ROI +30.6%). Compare that with backing all mid-division runners (ROI -36.7%) and/or all hold up performers (ROI -38.7%). If we look at the Impact Values, we see how strong the bias has been.
Front-runners have secured the highest IV to date, winning roughly 1.7 times more often than the average, while prominent runners have also performed well. Indeed, backing all horses that raced prominently would have returned a small 5p in the £ profit. In terms of A/E indices the front-running figure is high again at 1.25, prominent stands at 0.98, with mid div at 0.70 and hold ups at 0.73.
6. Chelmsford 6f
The second Chelmsford distance to hit the top ten is the 6f trip. Below is a graph showing both the A/E indices and the Impact Values for each run style group:
These are the highest figures seen so far for front-runners on both of these two metrics. Also, the hold-up numbers are extremely low in comparison. Front-runners have a significant edge at this trip winning a quarter (25%) of all races. Essentially an individual front-runner has been 3.6 times more likely to win than an individual hold up horse.
Not only are the win stats powerful for front-runners but the each way stats are extremely strong for this CD as well. If able to predict all front-runners’ pre-race one would have made a profit of £80.75 to £1 win bets, equating to returns of just under 30p in the £. Betting front-runners each way, the profit would have stood at a highly impressive £150.93.
5. Wolverhampton 5f
The first and last appearance for Wolverhampton in the top ten is over the minimum trip of five furlongs. Here are the A/E indices over this CD:
This front-running bias is similar to the last two CD combinations but when we look at the potential returns, we will see why I have put it above those two:
Front-runners would have returned close to 50p in the £ to £1 win bets, while prominent runners were close to breaking even. Backing all hold up horses would have lost you a whopping 72p in the £. Going back to front-runners, they have been able to win from any draw position and middle to higher drawn front-runners have been much better value than low drawn front-runners.
In terms of other distances at Wolves, front-runners do have an edge over 6f here at the Midlands track (A/E index 1.19), while over 7f prominent runners have the edge and hold up horses really struggle.
4. Chelmsford 7f
The third entry for Chelmsford, this time over 7f. I have graphed both the A/E indices and the Impact Values for each run style group to help illustrate the strength of the bias:
Strong positive correlation with both lines virtually mirroring each other. Front-runners have provided excellent value, while prominent racers too have edged above the magic 1.00 A/E figure. It is hard to win over this CD when taking up an early position in midfield or further back.
It is also worth sharing some data for Chelmsford 7f when combining the draw with run style. Below is the heat map which was generated from the Draw Analyser on the Geegeez site showing the A/E indices:
Somewhat surprisingly perhaps, the front-runners drawn widest (the high group) have fared exceptionally well and presented far better value than those horses drawn middle to low. The win percentage stats back this up, too:
Nearly 30% of the horses drawn in the top third of the draw have won when they have taken the early lead. These runners have won 16 races from 54, with a further 14 finishing 2nd or 3rd. The long run to the first bend, which gives the whole field a chance to make the lead, may be a factor:
The last stat to share for this CD is that each individual front-runner has been 3.93 times more likely to win than an individual hold up horse. As the heat maps above show this disparity becomes more potent the wider the draw.
3. Southwell 5f
This is the sole appearance for Southwell, and it is a top three entry over their straight 5f track. Let us start by comparing the wins to runs ratio within each run style group:
A very clear bias to front-runners and these figures correlate strongly with the A/E indices as shown below:
The 1.6 value for front-runners is comfortably the highest to date, while the prominent figure is the lowest.
It should be noted that front-running favourites have performed extremely well winning 43.9% of the time, while front-running second favourites are not far behind winning 37%. Compare this with favourites that were held up who have won less than 19% of the time and held up second favourites have won just 7.7% of the time!
2. Chelmsford 5f
The minimum trip at Chelmsford is second on my list but, to be fair, the top two CD combinations could have been reversed. To begin with let me compare the A/E indices and the Impact Values for each run style group:
The A/E index for front-runners is huge hitting just under 1.7, while prominent runners have also performed very well. Indeed, if you had backed horses from both run style groups pre-race you would have seen returns of 46p in the £ for front-runners and 18p in the £ for prominent racers. Meanwhile midfield runners lost 36p in the £ and hold-ups 42p.
In terms of Percentage of Rivals Beaten (PRB), front-runners stand at a huge 0.67 (67% of rivals beaten), whereas hold up horses are down on just 0.40. Finally, front-runners that were in single figures (SP 9/1 or less) won 39 races from 109 (SR 35.8%), whereas those priced in double figures (SP 10/1 or more) won just one race from 58 (SR 1.7%). Clearly front-runners that have started in single figures in the betting have offered punters enormous value over the past five years.
1. Lingfield 5f
Top of the tree (just) is the 5f distance at Lingfield. The A/E indices show that front-runners have offered better value here than at any other CD:
If pre-race you had predicted the front-runner or front-runners in every qualifying 5f handicap you would have made a hefty profit to SP of £128.03 to £1 level stakes. This equates to returns of 86 pence in the £! All the profits/returns quoted in this article have been calculated to Industry SP, so just imagine what the Betfair SPs would have paid.
Finally, I want to share some draw data for this CD when combining the draw with run style. Below is the heat map showing the PRBs – again this can generated by using the Draw Analyser - available to both Gold and Lite subscribers - on the Geegeez site:
Front-runners drawn middle to high have ridiculously high PRBs above 0.70. In contrast, hold up horses have very poor PRB figures regardless of draw position.
--------------------------
Conclusion
The positions in the top ten for each course and distance are, to some degree, subjective and there are few ‘next door’ positions that could easily have been placed the other way around. However, regardless of whether my order is 'correct' or not, what is clear, is that these ten combinations give front-runners a strong edge. Conversely, hold up horses are always at a serious disadvantage. The flat racing pattern that we have seen before, where the shorter the distance the better for front-runners, has been in evidence again here with four of the top five being 5f distances.
Of course, in terms of each individual contest, the run style groupings cannot be calculated until after the race, because before the race we do not know who will lead, who will track the leader, etc. Hence any profit figures or returns quoted can only be calculated after the event also. When quoting the profits / returns in this piece my aim has been to highlight why front-runners are potentially such good value.
As we know, predicting the front-runner is far from an exact science but the pre-race pace/run style figures found on the Geegeez Racecard are a very good starting point. Indeed, just for fun I have started to check some results of the top-rated pace/run style runners at Chelmsford in 5f handicaps. Currently I have back checked the last 63 races, which covers two years, of which the top-rated horse has won 11 times from 67 for an SP profit of £11.28 (ROI +16.8%). An encouraging start.
For the eagle-eyed amongst you, the reason there have been 67 top rated runners in 63 races is because in a handful of races there were joint top-rated runners and hence both were included. Perhaps even more exciting is that, if you had placed a £1 reverse straight forecast on the top two rated runners over these 67 races, you would have had six winning bets securing a profit of £106.26. Betting the Exacta instead would have been even more successful hitting a profit around the £150 mark. This type of research is labour intensive as one needs to check one race at a time, but over the next few weeks and months I plan to slowly trawl through more all-weather track/trip combinations to see whether a profit can be made using the racecard pace/run style figures.
Until next time...
- DR
Post Script: Using Pace on Geegeez
In support of Dave's excellent article, I've (Matt) recorded a short video to illustrate different ways you can see which horses are likely to lead over these potent track/trip combo's.
And a reminder that our Winter Special offer - big discounts on both Lite and Gold subscriptions - closes tomorrow (Thursday). So go here now if that's of interest.
- Matt
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/David_Marco.jpg320830Dave Renhamhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngDave Renham2024-12-04 09:16:202024-12-04 09:16:20Top Ten All-Weather Front-Running Biases
Northern Reel proved tough to catch at Leicester last week and can quickly add to her tally at Southwell.
Olly Murphy’s six-year-old travelled with real zest when part of the handler’s recent treble at Leicester, moving stylishly into contention and then showing her rivals a clean pair of heels when asked to go and win her race after the second last fence.
She cruised home 13 lengths clear of the opposition and a similar performance would make her tough to oppose under a 7lb penalty in the Golf And Gallop Package Mares’ Handicap Chase.
Also heading to Rolleston in winning order is Anthony Honeyball’s Jasmin Du Grugy, who now switches to the larger obstacles for the Southwell Golf Club Handicap Chase having rattled up a hat-trick over timber back in May.
Dan Skelton’s Asian Star had to settle for second when carrying a penalty for a previous Southwell victory at Warwick earlier this month.
However, a return to Nottinghamshire could help her quickly regain the winning thread as she is sent handicapping in the Watch Unbridled On attheraces.com Novices’ Handicap Hurdle.
It may also be worth keeping a close eye on Harry Derham’s Sergeant Fury in the Download The At The Races App Maiden Hurdle as the point-to-point winner makes his hurdling bow following a pleasing run in a Wincanton bumper.
Spectators at Sedgefield could be set to witness a little bit of local history when Willie Mullins sends over Mr Escobar for the vickers.bet Proud To Support British Racing Novices’ Hurdle.
A winner at the venue is missing from the Closutton handler’s distinguished CV, but his raider could prove a tough nut to crack judged not only on his second over obstacles at Listowel in Septemberm but also his fine effort on the Flat at Naas last month.
More used to success at Sedgefield is Rebecca Menzies and the local handler can strike in the concluding Paxtons No1 Caseih Dealer In UK & Ireland Open Maiden National Hunt Flat Race with Snapaudaciaheros.
Fourth on her Hexham debut, she then took a step forward when second at Southwell on her second start and could be primed to make it third time lucky if her progression continues.
It is a long time since The Paddy Pie has returned to the winner’s enclosure, but because of that, he finds himself now 20lb below his last successful winning figure.
He was an encouraging second over track and trip most recently and a similar performance could give Joel Parkinson – the grandson of Sue Smith’s husband Harvey – his first victory since joining the Grand National-winning handler on the training licence.
Also at Sedgefield, Laser Focus can notch up a hat-trick in the Chris Blanckley Birthday Handicap Hurdle.
Trainer James Owen can do no wrong at present and away from the Cheltenham triumphs of Burdett Road and East India Dock, Laser Focus has been in fine form with two wide-margin triumphs this month.
This is his toughest assignment yet, but the six-year-old is on the upgrade and could have plenty still lurking in the locker.
SELECTIONS:
SEDGEFIELD: 12.55 Mr Escobar, 1.25 National Question, 2.00 Clean Getaway, 2.30 Laser Focus, 3.00 The Paddy Pie, 3.30 Snapaudaciaheros.
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/DavidProbert_newGeegeezLogo-e1538582067746.jpg313830Geegeez Newshttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngGeegeez News2024-11-24 13:13:232024-11-24 13:13:23Reel can show off winning moves
Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...
And with Southwell having the biggest guaranteed pot, let's head there for the following six races on standard going tapeta...
5.00 Southwell, an 8-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 1m6f...
Blenheim Lad comes here on a hat-trick after back to back wins over course and distance in September/October and although up 6lbs here should be winning again here, especially as there's not much else to write about when it comes to the form of his rivals.
None of the seven made the frame last time out, none have won any of their last seven races, but Alex The Great has finished second and fourth in his last two and Gentle Fire was a runner-up two starts ago and now makes a yard debut for Tony Carroll, who also trains Alex The Great.
The pace/draw heat map looks like this...
...and Instant Expert like this...
...so I'm going with (1) Blenheim Lad, (3) Alex The Great & (8) Gentle Fire
5.30 Southwell, a 12-runner, Class 6, 2yo handicap over 7f...
Rotation won a seller back in July but has struggled since, Seed Investor was 3rd of 11 at Catterick 24 days ago and We've Got This has three top-four finishes from his four starts (2934). Isla Bella makes an A/W debut and although last home of nine at Thirsk most recently, she did win at Brighton in May and was a Class 3 runner-up at York on her subsequent outing.
Zadkiel has been third in each of his last two starts and both Sherlock and Realise The Dream were third last time out too, but bottom weight Whizz By comes here off the back of a fairly comfortable win over course and distance on handicap debut just under three weeks ago and looks the one to beat.
Isla Bella looks like setting the tempo of the race here...
...so although she's going to be a big price, I'm going to add (5) Isla Bella to my ticket builder along with form picks (7) Zadkiel & (12) Whizz By
6.00 Southwell, a 10-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ handicap over 7f...
Novak comes here off the back of three placed (312) runs in tight finishes and was only beaten by a neck over course and distance last time out, whilst three of his stablemates all won last week. Ideal Guest has two wins and a place from his last five starts and Monopolise looked quite comfortable when winning at Kempton by the thick end of two lengths eight days ago.
Ideal Guest and Monopolise also feature in the front half of the pace averages...
...which also suggests bold efforts from Royal Parade and Mark's Choice, but the former has only made the frame in 2 of 10 A/W starts (0 wins) and whilst the latter made the frame in back to back 7f Tapeta handicaps (1 over C&D) last November, he hasn't raced since finishing 10th of 12 at Newcastle 11 months ago!
So from that pace graphic, I'll discard those two and keep the two form picks along with Novak...
6.30 Southwell, a 10-runner, Class 5, 2yo fillies novice over 6f...
Cressida Wildes has already made the frame in three of her last four starts, only missing out when beaten by less than two lengths in a Listed race at Newbury in August and she has been a Class 2 runner-up and it is hoped that her first-time cheekpieces do the business for her here. Marvelously has steadily improved and was third over course and distance last time out, whilst Nazuki hit the ground running here (also over this trip) when a runner-up on debut almost four weeks ago.
This trio look the pick on form from those who've already had race experience, whilst of the debutants, Nakaaha is the most interesting. She's by Bated Breath and her dam was a winner at both 1m2f and 1m4f. This 2yo cost 80,000 gns as a foal and then 62,000 gns as a yearling and represents a yard in good nick with a healthy record at this venue...
This quartet are my shortlist and the one I'll omit is Marvelously.
7.00 Southwell, a 13-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ handicap over 6f...
Dutch Kingdom has won two of his last three including by 2.5 lengths over this trip at Chelmsford last time out and he'll seek to improve upon an already impressive 38% win and 59% place strike rate on the A/W. Secret Guest now returns to the A/W after a decent Flat campaign (placed in three of his last four) and finished 42621 on the Tapeta last winter. He was badly hampered at York in a big-field handicap last time out, but his prior run when beaten by a neck at Ripon (6f, Class 2) was excellent.
City House has made the frame in two of his last three also and Completely Random has made the frame (1 win) on both Tapeta outings to date and has made the frame in three of his last five runs, whilst Cajetan completes my 'form shortlist', having won two of his five starts this year. Those two wins are his entire A/W career and both came over 6f on tapeta, albeit at Newcastle rather than here.
There's not much in the way of pace here and Dutch Kingdom might be afforded an easy lead...
and in a tricky contest, he's on my ticket builder along with A/W 100%-er Cajetan and Completely Random who also seems to like the Tapeta.
7.30 Southwell, a 12-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ handicap over 1m...
Lion Of War was third last time out and has a win and two places from his last five, Cruyff Turn won three starts ago whilst Chalk Mountain has 5 wins, 4 seconds and a third from his last ten A/W handicaps (1st and 2nd in two runs here, both over 7f). Shaw Park was a runner-up here over 7f last time out, but the one to beat looks like being Qazaq who brings a 2 from 2 record to the table after a 7f win at Chelmsford last December and a subsequent 7f win by 6 lengths at Kempton three weeks ago, despite not having raced for ten months! He was impressive that day and if he comes on for the run, the others might need binoculars to watch him finish.
A high draw is preferable here...
...as is early pace...
...so we're definitely having Qazaq!
Chalk Mountain does seem the most likely challenger based on form, draw, pace and consistency...
Lion Of War probably edges third pick for me. he has just two A/W runs under his belt to date and was only two necks away from winning at Kempton last time out finishing third in a tight 14-runner handicap with the runner-up going on to finish second again next time out over this course and distance despite stepping up in class . His other A/W run was on the tapeta at Newcastle back in June '22 and he landed a 7f Novice race by some ten lengths eased down.
*
All of which gives me...
Leg 1: (1) Blenheim Lad, (3) Alex The Great & (8) Gentle Fire
Leg 2: (5) Isla Bella, (7) Zadkiel & (12) Whizz By
Leg 3: (2) Novak, (3) Ideal Guest & (4) Monopolise
Leg 4: (3) Cressida Wildes, (6) Nakaaha & (7) Nazuki
Leg 5: (1) Dutch Kingdom, (6) Completely Random & (8) Cajetan
Leg 6: (1) Lion Of War, (6) Qazaq & (8) Chalk Mountain
...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...
Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...
The biggest guaranteed pot is at Southwell, where the tapeta is said to be 'standard', so let's look at the first six of a bumper none race card that begins with...
Leg 1 @ 4.10, an 8-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ fillies handicap over 1m3f...
Achillea won over 1m2f at Chelmsford four weeks ago, but the 4yo Caramay is the form horse coming here on a hat-trick after wins over 1m1½f at Wolverhampton in early September and then here over today's course and distance a fortnight ago, taking her form this year to 152611 since returning from a seven-month break.
D Day Arvalenreena has made the frame in four of her last five, Aim For The Moon has a win and a place from her last five, Carpathian's last five include a win and two places and Fillyfudge's last four 1434 and with Shady Bay finishing third on her second outing, you can make a case for most of these, but Caramay has the best A/W stats...
...whilst Fillyfudge's early pace might well propel her into the frame today if she can hold on...
...but I suspect she'll have to play second (or third best) to the likes of fast-finishing Caramay and LTO winner Achillea
Leg 2 @ 4.45, a 10-runner, Class 5, 2yo novice stakes over 7f...
Ten run, four are on debut, two make just a second appearance and the other four have raced twice each with the filly Kimeko Glory the only one to have made the frame, when third of nine over 1m½f at Wolverhampton five weeks ago. Minelone also makes some appeal after not being disgraced over 7f on debut also at Wolverhampton six weeks ago, coming home fourth of ten and should come on for the experience and I think that this pair will be involved again today.
Of the debutants, Rogue Officer might be the one to take note of, he's a son of Soldiers Call, a half-brother to several winners including Misleading Promise, Return To Dubai and Frutireu and he's out of Nurse Nightingale, who made the frame in seven of her own ten A/W starts.
Leg 3 @ 5.15, a 10-runner, Class 5, 2yo novice stakes over 7f...
The second division of the above race gives us even less to go on! Only three have raced before and none of them have really impressed, so the chances are that the debutants will beat them.
Empress Matilda's dam won three times and was a runner-up twice from six starts at 6f and 7f including wins at a Group 2 & 3 and a Gr 1 silver. She's a half-sister to Saint Lawrence, who won a 7f Listed race and her yard's (Roger Varian) debutants are flying right now, plus they have a stack of stats to back them up...
Tattie Bogle is a half-brother to winners including Column, Teaser and Tartlette, with the former a winner on the All-Weather. The Johnston yard have a good record at this venue and Tattier Bogle could easily get amongst the money here, as could Lightupyourlife, whose dam was a winner up to 7.5f. This Kodiac filly cost 37,000 Euros as a yearling and is a half sister to A/W winner Livinthelife, who has won up to 1m1f.
Leg 4 @ 5.45, a 7-runner, Class 5, 3-5yo maiden over 1m...
A modest looking contest that shouldn't take much winning and the obvious starting point would have to be Spetses who was beaten by less than two lengths on debut four weeks ago, finishing second of ten behind a horse that already had a win under his belt and we already highlighted his yard's form in the race above.
And if Spetses is an obvious candidate for the win, then you have to say that Rogue State is the ideal suggestion to make the frame, having finished third in all six career starts to date. She gets weight from most of her rivals and will wear a tongue-tie for the first time today.
As for a third pick, none of the others with race experience excite me, so it could fall to debutant Sedbury. This Pearl Secret colt is a brother to 1m-1½m winner Goldsborough and a half-brother to both 6f winner Canadian Royal & 1m-1½m winner My Boy Sepoy and hails from a yard with a good record at this track...
Leg 5 @ 6.15, a 13-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ handicap over 7f...
Three runners, How Impressive, Harvard Sound and It Just Takes Time come here on hat-tricks, so at least two will see their winning streak end. Chuzzlewit is the only runner without a win in the last six starts, having lost his last eight, but he was third of twelve at Ayr last time out. Silver Samurai was also third last time out, whilst Street Kid and Lattaash have both made the frame in each of their last two runs, with Noodle Mission's form this year reading 31211216 with the step up to Class 2 LTO just a bit too much and this course/distance winner now steps back down in class. Bottom weight Chalk Mountain was also sixth last time out, ending a run of three straight A/W victories, but that has moved his mark from 68 to 82 and that might be his ceiling for now.
Our pace analyser for this race looks like this...
...which suggests that the following half dozen runners might be better suited...
...whilst my Instant Expert shortlist would be...
...and in a race where you can make claims for plenty of these, I'm taking a simplistic approach with the three that feature on both graphics above ie (4) Noodle Mission, (5) How Impressive & (11) Run Boy Run
Leg 6 @ 6.45, a 4-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ handicap over 1m6f...
Baltic seemed to struggle on the heavy ground at Newmarket last time out, coming home last of eight and ending a 5-race winning streak that included two handicap wins on the Tapeta at Newcastle, so he's have every chance back on the A/W.
Saratoga Gold hasn't won any of his last thirteen races since a win at Kempton almost 15 months ago and probably comes here in the worst form of the four runners.
Berkshire Sundance won well at Kempton in September 2023 before taking almost a year off and on his return at Chester last month he got upset in the stalls, reared at the start and jockey Jason Watson. Oisin Murphy had ridden him to victory at Kempton and returned to the saddle at Salisbury last time out, where the pair won again.
Le Rouge Chinois could only manage to finish 8th of 9 over this course and distance a fortnight ago, which was a disappointment considering he had the run of the run from the front end. he faded badly late on and was eventually over 13 lengths off the pace.
On form alone, you'd want to be with Baltic and Berkshire Sundance and it's the former who has the best A/W stats over the last couple of years and is only 4lbs higher than his last win...
...and with him looking likely to stalk Le Rouge Chinois in the early stages, Baltic would the one I'd back to win this if I was looking for a winner...
That said, Berkshire Sunrise is likely to go off at odds on, so I'd be foolish to ignore his claims too.
Mick Appleby is confident Big Evs is in the ideal place ahead of his Breeders’ Cup swansong after tightening the screw in a racecourse gallop under big-race jockey Tom Marquand at Southwell on Thursday morning.
There may have been fanfare when Aidan O’Brien visited the Rolleston venue to put City Of Troy through his paces last month, but there were only a handful of witnesses on this occasion as the speedy son of Blue Point continued his Del Mar preparations in the hands of the ever-loyal pilot Marquand.
It is a tried-and-tested path for the undoubted star of Appleby’s string, with Big Evs tuning up for the Hollywood ending of his two-year-old campaign at last year’s Stateside showpiece with a spin on the Southwell Tapeta.
This time he was accompanied by stablemate Blind Beggar as he galloped for five furlongs, spinning the home bend before finishing at the one furlong marker ahead of his 83-raced companion in what is his final appearance on a British racecourse before retiring to stud after his trip to California.
Appleby said: “I think he worked really well. Tom was saying he’s got a bit lazy and he knows he is good so he just does as much as he wants to do.
“Today will be the last time he’s seen on a British racecourse and I’ve been coming to Southwell a long time – they do a great job here and Mark Clayton (executive director) is absolutely brilliant.”
A return to the US has been the ultimate ambition of a profitable three-year-old season, which has so far seen him taste success on both his reappearance at York in May and at Goodwood when gaining revenge on Aussie conqueror Asfoora in the King George Stakes.
Kept fresh for his latest trans-Atlantic mission since failing to sparkle in the Nunthorpe in August, there is only a few weeks to go until Big Evs bids to bring the curtain down on his career in style and Appleby is confident his fleet-footed speedster is ready to make a bold bid.
Tom Marquand and Big Evs at Southwell (Adam Morgan/PA)
“He needed that as well because we’ve freshened him up since his last run and it will have blown away the cobwebs,” continued Appleby. “We did exactly the same last year before we went to the Breeders’ Cup.”
“I just think everything went against him at York and we just have to put a line through him, I still have plenty of faith in him. He’s proved he has trained on this year and when you have a good two-year-old there is always a doubt, but he’s shown he is still as good as he was if not better.
“It will be nice to go back America and it would be great if he could win. We’re not going there under any illusions it will be easy, but as long as he runs his race and is thereabouts we’ll be happy. If he doesn’t win, he doesn’t win, but we’re going there with every chance.”
Marquand is no stranger to success on the international stage and has been an ever-present in the saddle aboard Big Evs since joining forces for the first time at Doncaster in September 2023.
Big Evs struck Breeders’ Cup gold at Santa Anita (PA)
He tasted Breeders’ Cup glory for the first time when the duo triumphed in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf at Santa Anita and feels his ace sprinter has lost none of his zip as he prepares to showcase his electric pace once again to an American audience.
Marquand said: “He did well and by the sounds of it he was freshened up following his run at York and feels well for it.
“It seems all systems go for America now and that was probably the first opening piece he’s really had by the sounds of it and there’s a few weeks left to fine tune him now.”
Joining Big Evs in the morning workout was stablemate Big Mojo, who is bidding to follow in Big Evs’ footsteps in the Juvenile Turf Sprint.
Big Mojo was a big race winner at Goodwood in the summer (Andrew Matthews/PA)
Owned similarly by Paul and Rachael Teasdale, the son of Mohaather has already emulated his illustrious stablemate once this year by winning the Molecomb at Goodwood and now has the chance to regain the winning thread in the San Diego suburbs having rattled the crossbar at Doncaster last month.
Appleby added: “He went round the bend really well and that was the main thing to get him going round at speed. He did very well and changed legs at the right time so really good.
“He’s a good horse with a lot of natural speed. I imagine next year he is going to be a six-furlong horse, but I imagine this will be absolutely fine for him.
“He’s got the natural speed that Big Evs has and I think he’s going to be a better three-year-old and I think he will be going out there with a live chance.”
Big Mojo will also be partnered by Marquand at Del Mar, who said: “He went round the bend like a motorbike and it will obviously be pretty different in America, but he’s had that experience now and felt good for it.
“I’ve got two good rides for Mick to look forward to and I’m excited to get out to Del Mar.”
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/7ef3b8b2-126a-42d1-a9e9-fb6ea7df1b31-scaled.jpg12802560Geegeez Newshttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngGeegeez News2024-10-10 11:17:312024-10-10 11:17:31Big Evs prepares for Breeders’ Cup bid with Southwell gallop
Today's UK meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...
And with the biggest pot to be found at Southwell, we'll head there for our six races on standard tapeta...
Leg 1 @ 4.20, a 12-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 5f...
Ifonlytheycudtalk was a winner a fortnight ago at Beverley and has been in the frame in four of his last six. Suanni and Glamorous Joy both won three starts ago with the former a runner-up last time out, whilst despite being a 12-race maiden, Marcus has made the frame in each of his last three starts and five of his last seven. Havechatma was a winner here over 6f last December and The Grey Lass is a former course and distance winner from four starts ago off just 2lbs higher.
Instant Expert also suggests that Suanni and Marcus could go well here and also puts Mr Funky Monkey into the picture...
whilst over a course and distance that suits those willing to get on with things...
...only Iftheycudtalk, Suanni, Northern Prince and Havchatma have an average pace score of 2.75 or higher...
...and I'll take three of those four, Northern Prince being the unlucky one and I'm still wary of Marcus based on the above.
(2) Havechatma, (3) Suanni, (6) Iftheycudtalk are my picks here.
Leg 2 @ 4.55, a 6-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ maiden over 5f...
Of those with racecourse experience, Vibrato and All Ways Glamorous seem better options than Bubbles Up and Kohana Girl.
Vibrato might need the run after 194 days off, but drops in class after being a runner-up here over a mile back in March, half a length behind Suspicion who has also yet to run again. The third placed horse that day, Devoirs Choice, has actually won his last three outings, all at Class 4 and off marks of 76, 78 & 80, so that's promising for Vibrato who also makes a yard debut for Jennie Candlish, who does well with new recruits...
All Ways Glamorous was only 4th of 7 on his A/W debut at Wolverhampton recently, but had finished as runner-up in three on the bounce over today's trip on good to soft, good and good to firm ground, so he's certainly adaptable.
Of the two debutants, I'm more drawn to Rebel Star, who is a half-sister to Angle Land who had 7 wins and 15 places from 49 runs over 5f, including a course and distance win here at Southwell.
Safety first here, I'll take all three : (1) All Ways Glamorous, (3) Vibrato & (6) Rebel Star
Leg 3@ 5.30, a 10-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 1m...
Kristal Klear is the klear (sorry!) pick on form having finished 121 in her last three outings. She was beaten by a head on good to soft ground at Haydock in between 7f tapeta wins here over course and distance and Wolverhampton last time out. She's up 5lbs for that latest 4 lengths success, but today's jockey takes those 5lbs off, so she's the one to beat for me.
Hardman was a disappointing 8th of 12 at Beverley last time out, but had won his previous two. Hostelry seems to be there or thereabouts without winning of late and this is a poorer race than she has been contesting as she drops in class, whilst 12-race maiden Jalaybee has made the frame in each of his last two starts. Back from Dubai is the sole course and distance winner, but doesn't show well on Instant Expert. Mind you, only Kristal Klear does!
She's also the likely front runner here in a race that seems to lack any real pace...
...so (1) Kristal Klear is a firm pick here. Matt (and others) braver than me would make her a banker here, but I'm prone to err on the side of caution and I'll also take (3) Hostelry & (5) Hardman here.
Leg 4@ 6.00, a 10-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 1m...
Amaysmont was a winner at Wolverhampton eight days ago, scoring for the third time in five starts since a pair of runner-up finishes in April and May, so he's clearly going well. Mykonos St John also won on that card at Wolverhampton last time out and is two from five, but lacks consistency. Of the others, only Rainbow Mirage made the frame on their last run. Kodebreaker has been placed in two of his last three and has two wins and those two places from his last six handicap outings and is also the only previous course and distance winner in the race, albeit from March 2023!
The top of the pace rating brings Cryptos Dream into play along with First Dynasty (winless in 12, though) and Amayretto who gets a 3lbs weight for age allowance and is down in weight despite only being beaten by 1.5 lengths over this course and distance last time out.
She's also on my six-runner Instant Expert shortlist...
I can't ignore the obvious claims of (1) Amaysmont and based on pace/IE, I'm also taking (4) First Dynasty & (8) Amayretto here
Leg 5@ 6.30, a 6-runner, Class 3, 2yo novice stakes over 7f...
This looks like a 'straightforward two-horse race' between triple runner-up (6) Shah who benefits from a higher draw...
... and (1) Jonquil, the only previous winner in the race, having scored over this trip on debut at Sandown and with both of these runners dropping in class, I'm just taking (1) Jonquil & (6) Shah from this one and moving on to our finale...
Leg 6@ 7.00, a 6-runner, Class 6, 3yo+ handicap over 2m½f
And we end with another small field where Different Drum sets the standard on form having finished third here over 1m4f five weeks ago prior to an LTO win over today's trip on the tapeta at Newcastle three weeks ago. Grey Nyle was a runner-up beaten by just a head over that same Newcastle track/trip almost four weeks ago and has to be considered and this pair are both still 3 yr olds, so get a whopping 9lbs advantage over their rivals, from whom Scylla has also won over today's trip albeit on good to firm ground at Lingfield in late July.
There's not much to be gleaned from Instant Expert, pace or draw here, but Scylla's yard have a useful recent place record at this venue...
..so I'll add (1) Scylla to the previously highlighted (3) Different Drum & (6) Grey Nyle for leg 6.
*
All of which gives me...
Leg 1: (2) Havechatma, (3) Suanni, (6) Iftheycudtalk & (10) Marcus
Leg 2: (1) All Ways Glamorous, (3) Vibrato & (6) Rebel Star
Leg 3: (1) Kristal Klear, (3) Hostelry & (5) Hardman
Leg 4: (1) Amaysmont, (4) First Dynasty & (8) Amayretto
Leg 5: (1) Jonquil & (6) Shah
Leg 6: (1) Scylla, (3) Different Drum & (6) Grey Nyle
...and here's how I'd play them, whilst trying to stay close to a nominal £20 total stake...
“The best I’ve ever seen him with Ryan”. Aidan O’Brien got everything he wished for and more having gone to the trouble of taking City Of Troy and four galloping companions to Southwell from Tipperary on Friday for his pre-Breeders’ Cup Classic gallop.
The Derby, Eclipse and Juddmonte International winner is aiming to break new ground at Del Mar in November by proving it is possible to be a champion on both turf and dirt. But while other Europeans have gone in hope rather than expectation – although Arcangues shocked the world on dirt in 1993 for Andre Fabre – City Of Troy’s sire is Justify, who won the American Triple Crown on dirt.
O’Brien has had 17 runners in the Classic, coming agonisingly close with Giant’s Causeway in 2000 when a neck behind Tiznow.
He also had a gallop in Nottinghamshire before travelling, but in those days Southwell had a Fibresand surface, not hugely dissimilar to dirt. These days it is Tapeta, a more general all-weather surface.
Nevertheless, O’Brien was keen to come to replicate a raceday and with a knowledgeable crowd of over 700 who were admitted for free, the horse knew something different was going on.
Stable companions Congo River (Brett Doyle), Democracy (Wayne Lordan), Master Of The Hunt (Rachel Richardson) and Edwardian (Dean Gallagher) could only take him to the two-furlong pole of the one-mile gallop and then it was left to him to do the rest under Ryan Moore.
While Moore had to get lower in the saddle and send him about his business, when he did that lengthy, raking stride was evident and he pulled further and further clear.
“We broke fast, we had two fast horses up front and then two miler-type horses in front, we knew that they’d have to go faster than him early,” said O’Brien.
“Obviously Ryan wanted to go forward, but he didn’t want to rev him up too much, going to America he didn’t want him in a habit of waiting.
“The pace was strong, the lads purposefully had the track slower than they would ever have done, harrowed deeper, so it was always going to be more gruelling than impressive.
City Of Troy Conquers Southwell Racecourse…
It was a delight to have The Ballydoyle Team visit Southwell Racecourse for City Of Troy's racecourse gallop!🏇
“We were only going to go a mile, it’s a while since he ran and this was always going to be his last good piece of work.
“Ryan got into the straight and he stretched out, you’d have to say you were very happy. He broke well, it’ll be interesting, everyone will have an opinion and I’m sure we’ll be analysed inside out, but it’ll be interesting to see what everyone thinks.”
One reason O’Brien believes he has never had a better chance of winning the Classic is City Of Troy’s racing style.
“He’s a high cruiser and he grinds. In America you prefer not to get kickback and I think everyone in America will tell you that, in an ideal world you don’t get any and horses never really get used to getting it,” he said of the perennial dirt racing problem.
“Some horses will face it and some horses just absolutely despise it, obviously in an ideal world you’d love to be in a position where you’re not getting kickback which happens with the good horses.
“It depends on the draw and the horses around you, also with kickback you can get eye infections and all sorts. It all gets tricky, but he was in behind then and he would have got some kickback because it was much looser than it usually would be today.”
City Of Troy preparing for his gallop (Mike Egerton/PA)
When it was put to him that the most impressive part of the gallop was the final 100 yards, he said: “That’s him always, he’s finishing, that’s when he’s always at his best. That’s always when you want a horse to be at his best, when his stride opens it just doesn’t shorten, it keeps going and going and going.
“Ryan said when he turned in he was only waiting, and when he got down past the furlong marker he started to open up for the line.
“We thought he was our best chance of winning the Classic since Giant’s Causeway. Really from a two-year-old we’ve had our eye on the Classic, that was with the Derby and then the Classic. Giant’s Causeway didn’t run in the Derby, he didn’t get that far.
“If you remember Giant’s Causeway going to the line, in the last 50 yards he just ran out of steam. Going the Derby trip would have really tested him, whereas this fella was changing legs going to the line and he took off again at Epsom.
“I thought today was his best, he broke very relaxed and Ryan had his hands down on him in a very relaxed manner. He turned into the straight and when he asked him to open up he was as straight as a gun barrel.
“Today was the best I’ve ever seen him with Ryan. Rachel (Richardson) rides him every day and he’s not for kids. He will maul you, you saw him at York when he was with Ryan and he was mauling him turning in, but when the tempo is strong like it was today, I thought Ryan was beautiful on him, he was floating.
“When he said ‘go’ he just kept going straight, it was all in a rhythm. He’s different, he knows it and he’s confident. Today was a test of that.
“He was keeping plenty turning in for Ryan when he wanted it and then he was going to give it him. It wasn’t nervous energy, I loved the way he came up the straight and galloped out.”
Spectators wait for City Of Troy to arrive in the parade ring (Mike Egerton/PA)
Reflecting on the day as a whole, O’Brien was stunned at the reception, stopping for selfies and autographs all along the rail.
“I wasn’t expecting this, but we’re very grateful to everybody because he would have felt it, there’s an unbelievable atmosphere,” he said.
“The minute we stopped we could feel the atmosphere and he was walking around the parade ring all that time before, that is priceless for him. He felt he was racing today and it was all lovely, he still worked and he blew off quick.
“I don’t think anyone could have done more, everybody here was a big help to him.
“He has to come out of it, he has to be OK tomorrow and then his programme will start from there.”
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/277523853-scaled.jpg12802560Geegeez Newshttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngGeegeez News2024-09-20 17:17:492024-09-20 17:17:49O’Brien left purring after City Of Troy stars at Southwell
City Of Troy came home a long way clear of four stablemates in his highly-anticipated racecourse gallop at Southwell on Friday.
The son of Justify has won six of his seven starts for Aidan O’Brien, who was keen to give his superstar colt a taste of an artificial surface ahead of a tilt at the Breeders’ Cup Classic.
While Southwell’s Tapeta track is very different to the dirt he will encounter at Del Mar on November 2, the Ballydoyle team did their best to ensure City Of Troy otherwise got as close to a raceday experience as possible in Nottinghamshire, flying over a set of American starting stalls and using a bell in the gate.
After being paraded in front of a sizeable and enthusiastic crowd, the three-year-old was walked in front of the stands before cantering to the one-mile start and being loaded into stall three under big-race jockey Ryan Moore, with Congo River (Brett Doyle) in one, Democracy (Wayne Lordan) in two, Master Of The Hunt (Rachel Richardson) in four and Edwardian (Dean Gallagher) in gate five.
Although City Of Troy made much of the running when winning last month’s Juddmonte International at York in a record time, it was notable more waiting tactics were adopted in this thorough workout, with Moore settling him at the rear of the quintet while Congo River set a sound gallop out in front.
As Congo River and Democracy began to falter, the Derby hero moved ominously alongside before the home turn before being pushed clear by Moore, powering through the line to finish in splendid isolation.
O’Brien said: “It’s a pleasure and privilege for us to come (to Southwell) and we’re so grateful to everybody for making this day happen and making it such a success.
“We’re so grateful to everyone for providing an atmosphere, the track was beautiful and all the facilities, so we feel very privileged.
“He’s a unique horse, we always thought he was, and we’ve tried to do our best for him to show that he’s something different.
“We’ve tried to prepare him for a (Breeders’ Cup) Classic, we’ve never won it and know how tough it is. When he came along we felt that he was the horse that could make it happen. There’s never any guarantee with anything, but we felt if we looked under every stone that he’d have a good chance.
“The lads slowed up the surface today, which was brilliant, and made it a bit closer to dirt. It was tough and was never going to be over impressive to look at I suppose, but we were very happy and Ryan was very happy.
“There was an even pace and he stretched out well, so hopefully he’ll come out of it and we’ll look forward to the Breeders’ Cup with him now.”
Aidan O’Brien and jockey Ryan Moore at Southwell (Mike Egerton/PA)
He went on: “We’ve had them (American stalls) for a long time now. We were going to America and horses weren’t breaking very well, they were losing two or three lengths at the stalls, which was making it very difficult, so the lads went over and got American stalls and it was brilliant.
“The lads loaded them up perfect and City Of Troy jumped on the bell and was very quick. We knew the other four were going to be forced a bit stronger early because we didn’t want him to be in front, but at the same time Ryan said he was going to go forward because when he goes to America he’ll go forward.
“It all worked out perfect, we think. The trip, the day away, but I think the big thing was the track and the surface – it’s fast and left-handed and flat and the surface was more demanding than anything we could get other than grass.
A smile from Ryan Moore as he returns to the paddock aboard City Of Troy (Mike Egerton/PA)
“We’ve ticked all the boxes we think we should have ticked, that doesn’t mean you’ll get success, but at least if you fail that way you’ve failed doing your best, so we’ll try.”
On City Of Troy’s schedule from now until his trip to America, O’Brien added: “He’ll have a day off tomorrow and then he’ll start riding out again and his momentum will build from there.
“He’ll work once or twice a week, depending on how he is, and I think the plan is that he’ll go to America six, seven or eight days before.
“He’ll canter on the dirt for three or four days, he’ll probably do some paddock work and some stalls work and that will be it really.
“A day in a racehorse’s lifetime is very long and he has a lot of days to get through, so we’ll try to mark down the days. Hopefully he’ll come back and be fine tomorrow first and on we go after that.
“We think he’s like Giant’s Causeway, but he’s quicker and Giant’s Causeway went close to winning the Classic (second to Tiznow in 2000).
City Of Troy before his gallop (Mike Egerton/PA)
“This horse has a little more zest than Giant’s Causeway and has a long stride. He’s dour like him and his stride doesn’t shorten it lengthens, he’s tactically fairly quick, so he has a lot of those similarities, but we think he has a little bit more class.
“Justify is an incredible horse, like something we’ve never seen. He’s made like a big quarter horse and was still able to get a mile and a half, so that’s very rare.
“He’s a Triple Crown winner and we thought we’d never be lucky enough to get our hands on a stallion like that again. It’s so exciting for us, as horses that he sires will be able to run on the dirt and the grass and City Of Troy should improve on dirt, so it will be very exciting.”
Moore said: “He achieved what the objective was, and it’s about six weeks now (to Del Mar).
“I’ve never won it (Breeders’ Cup Classic), but he’s an unusual horse and he showed how good he is at York. If he can transfer that level of ability to the dirt, then you’d like to think he’d be in the mix.”
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/277523690-scaled.jpg12802560Geegeez Newshttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngGeegeez News2024-09-20 15:11:332024-09-20 16:15:08City Of Troy comes through Southwell gallop with flying colours
Officials at Southwell are counting down to the much-anticipated arrival of City Of Troy for his pre-Breeders’ Cup Classic gallop on Friday.
Aidan O’Brien’s colt has gained a huge reputation throughout this career so far, and after a sole blip in the 2000 Guineas he has soared through the rest of the campaign to land a famous treble that includes the Derby, Eclipse and Juddmonte International.
Out of the Group-winning Galileo mare Together Forever and by American Triple Crown winner Justify, City Of Troy is beautifully bred with a pedigree that has been beckoning him towards a dirt surface.
City Of Troy winning the Derby (Adam Davy/PA)
He will therefore head to Del Mar for the Breeders’ Cup Classic in early November, with the Southwell gallop intended to introduce the world’s highest-rated turf horse to a synthetic surface ahead of his first run on dirt.
In excess of 1,500 people are expected to head to the Nottinghamshire course to watch the workout at 3.45pm, with the track opening bars and making use of their big screens to broadcast the off-course racing throughout the afternoon.
“There’s a real sense of excitement, it’s become almost like a raceday,” said John Holliday, clerk of the course at Southwell.
“We’ve got a lot of staff working, we’re expecting the (American) stalls to be delivered any second now. They’re bringing their own stalls and we’ve got several people staying in the hotel.
“We’re expecting 1,500, maybe a few more to be honest. We’ve got the bars open, the Tote open and we’ll be broadcasting the racing elsewhere throughout the afternoon.
“It certainly has captured people’s imaginations. It’s been quite a surprise just has much it has, it’s kind of developed its own head of steam.
“When it was first discussed we were only imagining a couple of hundred people would be here.
“It’s great because it gives us a connection to him, we’re excited to say we have played a small part in his career.”
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/276387381-scaled.jpg12802560Geegeez Newshttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngGeegeez News2024-09-19 11:54:162024-09-19 12:25:07‘There’s a real sense of excitement’ – Southwell prepares to welcome City Of Troy
Southwell is gearing up to welcome City Of Troy’s legions of fans after confirming the public will be able to attend the Derby winner’s racecourse gallop later this month.
Aidan O’Brien had long mooted a trip to the Nottinghamshire track to test his Breeders’ Cup Classic aspirant on a synthetic surface before the anticipated climax of his career at Del Mar.
The impressive Juddmonte International Stakes winner will enjoy an away day to the Rolleston venue on September 20, where O’Brien hopes to replicate conditions his Group One star will face in California.
Betfred Derby ✅Coral Eclipse Stakes ✅Juddmonte International Stakes ✅
City of Troy, from 2000 Guineas disappointment to winning the Juddmonte in a course-record time 🙌 pic.twitter.com/36T19Z9Hq9
American starting stalls and a crack team of stablemates will join City Of Troy at Southwell as he is put through his paces ahead of his trans-Atlantic assignment, with Ballydoyle also suggesting they would be happy for the racing public to come along and witness what could be the Justify colt’s final action on UK soil.
Mark Clayton, executive director at Southwell, has now confirmed the racecourse is planning on opening the gates for the masses, who will need to register for a free ticket to the event once arrangements for the gallop have been finalised.
He said: “We have decided that on September 20, everybody will be welcome to come and watch City Of Troy.
“We haven’t got the times yet of when he will gallop, but once we have that, we will release a statement with the relevant information.
“All of the public are welcome for free, they will just need to pre-register on our website.
“That is not live yet and until that is confirmed, we won’t be accepting bookings, but we are expecting arrangements to be confirmed ASAP, then it will go live on our website. We will look after everybody and what an occasion it will be for us.”
It will not be the first time O’Brien has brought a member of his all-conquering string to Southwell, with the likes of Galileo and Giant’s Causeway both taking in a lap of the course ahead of their American endeavours.
Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore will put City Of Troy through his paces at Southwell (Damien Eagers/PA)
The once Fibresand surface is now a Tapeta all-weather track, but Southwell is thrilled to maintain its reputation as the ‘go-to’ place for Breeders’ Cup preparations and executives are hoping to lure Big Evs back there, as Mick Appleby’s star sprinter also points towards California this autumn.
The son of Blue Point graced the course with his presence prior to winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint 12 months ago and similar to City Of Troy, is also slated to end his racing career in the San Diego suburbs.
Clayton continued: “Who knows, it could be the last time we see City Of Troy on these shores and he’s going off to try to do something special.
Big Evs visited Southwell before winning at Santa Anita last year (Joe Giddens/PA)
“Aidan O’Brien coming to Southwell is quite a unique experience and it only happens maybe once a decade, so it will be nice to make something of it.
“We’re also hoping to entice Big Evs back to do a gallop before the Breeders’ Cup like he did last year. Mick has mooted it to me but it is still to be confirmed.
“If we can begin to be used for that sort of thing, then it can only help the course’s profile. We know it’s not the exact surface (as the dirt in America), but the layout of the course as a one-mile-two-furlong flat oval is wonderful if trying to replicate an American track.”
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/277198455-scaled.jpg12802560Geegeez Newshttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/geegeez_banner_new_170x78.pngGeegeez News2024-09-04 12:41:272024-09-04 12:41:27Southwell offer free entry for City Of Troy Breeders’ Cup gallop
Aidan O’Brien views an upcoming trip to Southwell for a serious workout with some of his “fastest” stablemates as the ideal stepping-stone for City Of Troy ahead of his ultimate test in the Breeders’ Cup Classic.
The son of American Triple Crown hero Justify has already established himself as the best of his generation on turf, bouncing back from 2000 Guineas disappointment to win the Derby and the Eclipse before dominating from the front to take the Juddmonte International in a course-record time.
O’Brien has long since identified City Of Troy as a horse who could finally provide him with an elusive first victory in one of the world’s most prestigious races on the Del Mar dirt on November 2 – and with connections opting against running in the Irish Champion Stakes on Saturday week, he will instead warm up for his trans-Atlantic mission with a gallop on Southwell’s Tapeta surface on September 20.
“We decided against going to Leopardstown because we didn’t want to use up that run, that’s why we thought we’d go to Southwell instead,” said O’Brien, speaking at an Irish Champions Festival media event at his yard on Monday.
“We went to the Breeders’ Cup Classic with Giant’s Causeway and got beat, we got beat with everything, so we have to tweak something and City Of Troy might go a shade fresher, that’s what we’re hoping.”
While some racecourse gallops can be viewed as nothing more than exhibitions, what O’Brien has planned promises to be anything but.
He added: “He can go a mile, probably with four or five other horses and we’ll go a good, strong pace and see what will happen. He’ll work out of American (starting) stalls, so we’ll have it as close as we can (to a race).
“Obviously we won’t have the surface, but that’s not a bad thing because we’re coming off the grass and it’s a little bit of a step in between, rather than the big jump straight away.
“We’ll work the fastest horses we can and we’ll go very hard for the first half (of the gallop). I don’t know what’s going to happen as any horse we’ve sent to Southwell has never worked well, they always just about finish with their lead horse and maybe this will be the same, I don’t know.”
Having been ridden positively throughout his juvenile career, including an all-the-way victory in the Dewhurst, City Of Troy’s Guineas reverse prompted a change of tactics in the Derby.
However, O’Brien switched tack again at York last month and the master of Ballydoyle appears to be ready to raise the stakes even higher in California, where interestingly the last time the Classic was run at Del Mar in 2021 Knicks Go made all.
“We were waiting to let him go forward, but we only wanted to let him do it before the Classic as while he was aggressive the last day, he’ll be more aggressive the next day,” he said.
“We didn’t want to do that until very late because of what happened in the Guineas. It just took a long time to get back and we had to do it very subtle without him knowing. We had to keep him moving forward, so it took us a long time to get back to (front-running) at York.
“Ryan (Moore) went forward at York, but it was still controlled aggression. I know him and the next day he will hit the gates and want to go.”
O’Brien feels City Of Troy’s combative nature will stand him in good stead for his adventure on the American west coast, but is well aware of how difficult a task it will be.
“We think what he did is going to set him up well for America. We’ve never won the Classic, we’ve tried very hard for 25 years and it’s a very difficult race to win,” he said.
“You’re going to a different world – a different culture, a different track and a different surface. I think for one of our horses to win it, they need to be a lot better than the opposition.
“It’s one of those races you don’t dream about because it’s so hard to win, but you try and hope. Every year you tweak things and look for different horses and different ways of doing it. You look under every stone you can look under and hopefully you’ve looked under enough of them.
“He has so many variables and so many things to get over that he hasn’t encountered before. He’s not simple, if you get into a row with him because he’s a lot of Justify in him and he’s lot of Galileo in him and when you get those I wince. If you’re restricting him, he’ll make you suffer.”
Aidan O’Brien at York (Mike Egerton/PA)
He went on: “He took York very well, he didn’t even blow, he never really got into full tank. He hangs because he’s a hardy customer and he’ll maul you if you’re mauling him – he’s not for kids.
“Obviously in America you try to stay out of the kickback and if you end up getting it you get it, but in my experience you don’t ever get used to it and I don’t think any horse enjoys kickback.
“He always favoured racing aggressively and that’s why from day one he just went out the gates and went. It’s in his nature to do it, but what’s rare about him is he carries it through.
“I’d say he’ll go forward and you’d imagine the faster they go the better it will suit him, but our fast is a little bit different to American fast, so we will watch with interest like everyone else.
“I think they usually fly out the Saturday before. They arrive on the Saturday evening, they’re in quarantine for two days and then they’re out on the track on Tuesday.”
City Of Troy and jockey Ryan Moore after winning the Coral-Eclipse at Sandown (Steven Paston/The Jockey Club)
Win, lose or draw, it appears City Of Troy’s Breeders’ Cup outing will be his swansong, with O’Brien expecting him to be retired to stud next season.
He said: “There’s no doubt probably (he could be better as a four-year-old), but he’s unique and he’s a different kind of a horse, so I’d imagine he’ll have to go off to stud.
“He’s just too different and from day one he was like that. He’s a great shape – he’s not too weak, he’s not too small. He’s perfectly proportioned and balanced and not extreme in any way.”
geegeez.co.uk uses cookies to improve your experience. We assume that's OK, but you may opt-out from the settings. Cookie settingsACCEPT
Privacy & Cookies Policy
Privacy Overview
This website uses cookies to improve your experience while you navigate through the website. Out of these cookies, the cookies that are categorized as necessary are stored on your browser as they are essential for the working of basic functionalities of the website. We also use third-party cookies that help us analyze and understand how you use this website. These cookies will be stored in your browser only with your consent. You also have the option to opt-out of these cookies. But opting out of some of these cookies may have an effect on your browsing experience.
Necessary cookies are absolutely essential for the website to function properly. This category only includes cookies that ensures basic functionalities and security features of the website. These cookies do not store any personal information.
Any cookies that may not be particularly necessary for the website to function and is used specifically to collect user personal data via analytics, ads, other embedded contents are termed as non-necessary cookies. It is mandatory to procure user consent prior to running these cookies on your website.