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Pace Wins The Race: 6f All Weather Handicaps

In my most recent article, we looked at pace bias in 5f handicaps on the all weather, and as promised here is a follow-up looking at the 6f trip, writes Dave Renham.

For regular readers I appreciate the next few lines in some form or other seem to appear in all my pace articles, but for the benefit of new readers I need to clarify the following: when discussing pace the main focus is the initial pace in a race and the position horses take up early on. At www.geegeez.co.uk there is a pace tab within the racecards for each race, and the stats in this article are based on the site’s pace data. These pace data on Geegeez are split into four sections each of which are assigned points – Led (4), Prominent (3), Mid Division (2) and Held Up (1). For all my articles I concentrate on the numerical values to create a plethora of hopefully useful stats.

The minimum distance of five furlongs gives the strongest pace bias on the flat as previous articles have illustrated. However, there is still a bias to pace horses/front runners over an extra furlong, which I will demonstrate in what follows.

The first set of data I wish to share with you is the overall pace perspective for 6f all weather handicaps with six or more runners (the data for this article has been taken from the last 5 years 2014 to 2018):

Pace comment Wins Runners SR% IV
Led (4) 325 1812 17.9 1.75
Prominent (3) 523 4448 11.8 1.15
Mid Division (2) 155 2003 7.7 0.79
Held Up (1) 357 4886 7.3 0.72

 

These stats give front runners a solid edge – it is not as strong as over 5f but it is still significant. Just for comparison purposes let us look at the strike rates (SR%) and Impact Values (IVs) for 6f and for 5f:

 

Pace comment 6f 5f   6f 5f
  SR% SR%   IV IV
Led (4) 17.9 22.3   1.75 2.04
Prominent (3) 11.8 12.5   1.15 1.15
Mid Division (2) 7.7 6.5   0.79 0.62
Held Up (1) 7.3 6.7   0.72 0.61

 

Over 6f front runners are still winning 1.75 times more often than average so we still have a decent starting point.

The main data for this article covers all-weather six-furlong handicaps with 6 or more runners. I then split the data into different field sizes – 6 to 8 runners; 9 – 10 runners; 11 or more runners. I did this ‘runner split’ for the 5f all-weather data in the previous article, and over that trip bigger fields produced the strongest front-running bias. As it turns out, this is replicated over 6f too:

6 to 8 runners

Pace comment Wins Runners SR% IV
Led (4) 536 104 19.4 1.41
Prominent (3) 1093 167 15.28 1.11
Mid Division (2) 304 27 8.88 0.66
Held Up (1) 988 107 10.83 0.79

 

9 to 10 runners

Pace comment Wins Runners SR% IV
Led (4) 548 100 18.25 1.73
Prominent (3) 1351 163 12.07 1.15
Mid Division (2) 549 43 7.83 0.74
Held Up (1) 1477 113 7.65 0.73

 

11 or more runners

Pace comment Wins Runners SR% IV
Led (4) 728 121 16.62 1.98
Prominent (3) 2004 193 9.63 1.14
Mid Division (2) 1150 85 7.39 0.88
Held Up (1) 2421 137 5.66 0.67

 

The IV for front runners increases as the number of runners increases. This is somewhat counter-intuitive and is therefore worth bearing in mind.

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The article that discussed 5f all weather sprints looked at each course and distance individually. Once again this is the plan here, as different courses have different layouts, and also there are differences between certain track surfaces too. Let's start with Chelmsford and work through alphabetically.

Chelmsford

Pace comment Wins Runners SR% IV
Led (4) 58 278 20.9 1.97
Prominent (3) 71 562 12.6 1.19
Mid Division (2) 31 422 7.3 0.71
Held Up (1) 44 671 6.6 0.62

 

Just over a fifth of the 6f handicap races (SR 20.9%) at Chelmsford have seen the early leader going on to win. This compares with a strike rate of 26.3% over 5f: not quite as strong but with an IV close to 2 the front-running bias is still clear.

It has already been noted that in bigger fields at all of the all-weather courses the front-running bias seems to be more evident. This is certainly the case here: in races of 11 runners or more at Chelmsford, the front runner has prevailed an impressive 21 times from 87 giving a strike rate of 24.1% and an Impact Value of 2.93.

The draw seems to be material here, too, with those horses drawn nearest to the inside rail performing best when taking the early lead (all 6+ runner races). That makes sense as they will be taking advantage of the shortest route. Horses that have led early from one of the three lowest draws in these big field Chelmsford 6f handicaps have won 25% of their races with an Impact Value of 2.28.

 

Kempton

Pace comment Wins Runners SR% IV
Led (4) 72 388 18.6 1.85
Prominent (3) 107 938 11.4 1.14
Mid Division (2) 41 542 7.6 0.78
Held Up (1) 84 1123 7.5 0.75

 

The 6f trip at Kempton has a decent number of races each year giving punters plenty of opportunities to get involved. Front runners have a clear edge here and, as with Chelmsford, field size accentuates this.

In 6f handicaps of 11 or 12 runners (12 is the maximum at Kempton), front runners have secured 39 wins from 176 runners (SR 22.2%) with a very high Impact Value of 2.53. However, the draw data suggest there is no clear advantage to front runners drawn near to the inside rail (low).

 

Lingfield

Pace comment Wins Runners SR% IV
Led (4) 68 297 22.9 2.07
Prominent (3) 76 590 12.9 1.16
Mid Division (2) 32 380 8.4 0.79
Held Up (1) 50 745 6.7 0.61

 

The statistics for Lingfield seem to suggest front runners there have the biggest edge compared with the other five UK all-weather courses. Any front runner here that is well fancied has done extremely well: horses that were either favourite or second favourite and led early over 6f here went on to win 39 times out of 80 runners equating to a win rate of nearly 50%.

 

Newcastle

Pace comment Wins Runners SR% IV
Led (4) 23 143 16.1 1.74
Prominent (3) 34 394 8.6 0.94
Mid Division (2) 17 197 8.6 0.97
Held Up (1) 40 485 8.2 0.89

 

Coincidentally, the front running IV over 5f at Newcastle is also 1.74. Front runners do have an edge here but it is not a course I personally get heavily involved with, as the straight track for all distances up to a mile makes it a unique test of an all-weather horse in Britain. That greater emphasis on stamina produces the reverse to Kempton and Chelmsford, with front runners struggling in bigger fields.

 

Southwell

Pace comment Wins Runners SR% IV
Led (4) 33 166 19.9 1.85
Prominent (3) 102 690 14.8 1.38
Mid Division (2) 7 124 5.6 0.57
Held Up (1) 17 491 3.5 0.32

 

A reasonable IV of 1.85 for front runners, but it is also worth noting that horses which come from midfield or off the pace really struggle here just like they do over 5f. One other area worth sharing with you is when a front runner also happens to be in the top 5 of the Geegeez speed ratings, it has won on 22 of 79 occasions (SR 27.9%) producing an IV of 2.50.

 

Wolverhampton

Pace comment Wins Runners SR% IV
Led (4) 71 540 13.1 1.33
Prominent (3) 133 1274 10.4 1.06
Mid Division (2) 27 338 8.0 0.87
Held Up (1) 122 1371 8.9 0.9

 

Comfortably the poorest stats for front runners are at Wolverhampton, where there is a very small edge only and little to write home about. Indeed, pace seems to be far more balanced across the run styles at Wolves than at any of the other tracks.

*

Before I finish, in other articles I have used the various figures to create course and distance pace averages. I do this by adding up the pace scores of all the winners at each course and dividing it by the total number of races. The higher the average score, the more ‘biased’ the course and distance is to horses that lead early or race close to the pace.

Here are the 6 furlong handicap C&D pace averages for the six aw courses:

 

Taking all the data into account, six furlong handicaps on the all weather do offer ‘pace’ punters a potential edge. It is, unsurprisingly perhaps, not as strong as over five furlongs, but still strong enough to give clued in bettors a good leg up on the opposition. All we need now is to find a fail-safe method to predict the front runner...

- Dave Renham

Trainer Stats: 26th June 2013

HENRY CANDY

Henry Candy in flying form

Andy Newton’s got six more flat yards that are in cracking form to look out for this week…… Read more

Stat of the Day, 1st May 2013

Stat of the Day : 1/5/13

Stat of the Day : 1/5/13

Stat of the Day, 1st May 2013

No joy for the Turner/Bell combination yesterday as both Sunningdale Rose (3rd of 5) and our selection George Cinq were well beaten. Hayley seemed like she was producing George Cinq at just the right time. The 3/1 shot had been kept covered up and when she pulled him out two furlongs from home, I was just waiting for the burst to the line. Hayley pressed the button and there was little response to be honest and a 2.75 length defeat was the outcome, back in 4th place.

We're off to Nottinghamshire today for a Class 5 Handicap Hurdle over two miles, four and a half furlongs, where the going is expected to be good for the ten runners contesting the...

5.30 Southwell:

Today we turn to another familiar SotD name, Charlie Longsdon, as I noticed last night that he has a very good record in recent years with horses making their first run for his yard. Sometimes, a horse needs a change of scenery / tactics to get the best out of them and certain trainers are more adept than others at resurrecting a horse's form.

Mr Longsdon is one such trainer, having secured 32 winners from 140 yard debutants since the start of 2011. This 22.9% strike rate over the last 28 months has yielded a level stakes profit of 149.21pts, a return on investment of over 106.5%: a nice chunk of change indeed.

Our selection today, Brass Monkey, is a lightly-raced 6 yr old gelding whose previous form suggests that he'll enjoy the good ground underfoot, as he has really struggled in softer conditions. He won a bumper here at Southwell for Sarah Humphrey almost a year ago (15th May 2012) on his second attempt, but has struggled over hurdles in three races since then in conditions described as soft (twice) and heavy, where he clearly didn't get the ground, but did complete the races to gain today's handicap mark of 88.

Today is Brass Monkey's handicap debut and he'll also be assisted by the booking of the best jockey to have ridden him so far (Richard Johnson), this addition plus the switch to the new yard and their record with debutants allied to the horse's previous course victory make me confident of a good show today and I'm happy to place my shilling on Brass Monkey at 7/2 BOG.

That price is quite wildly available, so for your choice of bookmaker, simply...

Click here for the latest betting on the 5.30 Southwell.

Stat of the Day, 13th March 2013

Stat of the Day: 13/03/13

Stat of the Day: 13/03/13

Stat of the Day, 13th March 2013

Hab Reeh was easy to back yesterday, as he drifted out from our early 7/1 to an SP of 9/1. As hoped, Amy Ryan kept him involved fairly close to the action, but was run out of it in the sprint to the line. He did actually run pretty well and despite dead heating for 6th place, he was only 3 lengths off the winner.

Still giving Cheltenham a wide berth, unless you want SotD to pick Sprinter Sacre, we're off to Nottinghamshire for some Fibresand action for the heady heights of a Class 5 maiden. We're expecting ten runners to take to the stalls for the seven furlong trip in the...

5.05 Southwell

Relatively new trainer James Tate has had a remarkable start to his new career, especially here at Southwell. His first race here was only as far back as December 2011 when Dark Falcon was returned a 3/1 winner. In total James has now saddled up 6 winners here from just 17 attempts, giving a strike rate of some 35.3% and level stakes profits of 12.83pts (75.5% ROI) at SP. Those who like to back in the place market were rewarded with a 70.6% success rate.

Of those 17 races, five of them were maidens like today's race and James' record in Southwell maidens reads an impressive 12711, three wins and a place from five for level stakes win profits of 3.83 pts (76.6% ROI in keeping with his overall record here).

So, yes, you've probably guessed that James Tate has one runner today and that she goes in a Southwell maiden. Well, you'd be right to think that, as today's selection is the three-year old bay filly Gebayl.

Gebayl is making her seventh start today and more importantly, her second visit to Southwell, where I believe previous form is vital. Southwell's surface is very different to polytracks and represents a different challenge to the general A/W conundrum.

She was edged out by just a nose on her last visit here, but had run well enough to put some eleven lengths between herself and the third placed horse over today's course and distance. She was wearing cheekpieces that day and they are reapplied today.

She didn't seem to handle the Lingfield polytrack as well last time out and didn't really seem to suit the one mile trip that day, so today's reversion to the Fibresand and a trip one furlong shorter should help her go well once more.

The big danger today is the likely odds-on favourite Fraserburgh, but it has to be seen whether that one will take to the surface as readily as Gebayl did on debut here.

The likelihood of an odds-on favourite means we'll get a little (but not a lot!) more bang for our buck today and the call is a 1pt win bet on Gebayl at 100/30 BOG with BetFred (Sky Bet are going 7/2 non-BOG), but I recommend that you...

Click here for the latest betting on the 5.05 Southwell

Stat of the Day, 7th March 2013

Stat of the Day: 07/03/13

Stat of the Day: 07/03/13

Stat of the Day, 7th March 2013

It was pretty much a no-show from D'Gigi yesterday as she came home last of the six finishers in an eight-runner race. She was held up during the race, made a mistake at the 9th hurdle and then folded tamely to end up around 95 lengths off the winner, 74 lengths off a place and still over 40 lengths away from any other horse!

Today we're returning to the Nottinghamshire Fibresand for a Class 5 Handicap over seven furlongs for the ten runners in the...

4.30 Southwell

SotD has a bit of a deja vu feeling to it today, as we turn the clock back a little to look at a course & distance specialist.

Back on the 10th February, I put Flying Pickets up for consideration, based on a 5/15 (+16.33pts) record here at Southwell and 5/8 record over course and distance.

Flying Pickets was the runner-up that day, finishing strongly despite having to do too much to get on terms. He'd encountered plenty of traffic that day and didn't quite catch the leader, but was gaining with every stride.

He was then turned straight back out two days later and won over this same C&D and since then he's only raced once (7 days later), when he finished 4th over C&D, but he had stepped up to Class 4 racing for that one. This brought his overall record over C&D to 21112141214: 6 wins and 3 places from 11 attempts and never out of the first four home.

Backing Flying Pickets blindly over 7 furlongs here would have given you 31.13pts (+283%) profit at SP and 46.05pts at Betfair SP (+418%), whilst E/W backers would have benefited on nine occasions to the tune of 40.6pts (+193%)

It must however be noted that all his wins here have been in non-handicap company and he'll find this a little tougher than usual, but he did beat Alpha Tauri and Rio Cobolo over track and trip in November and when I put him up last time he finished just behind Bitaphon and they look closely matched on today's terms, so if he can avoid the traffic a bit better today, there's no reason why he can't go close at a decent price.

The step back into handicap company and his record in those events is reflected in the prices available. There's not much liquidity in the exchange markets yet, but odds of around 11.5 are available. The conventional bookies are generally offering 9/1 BOG, so the "official" SotD line is 0.5pts on Flying Pickets at 9/1 E/W BOG. You can take your pick of the bookies and to do so, simply...

Click here for the latest betting on the 4.30 Southwell

Trainer Stats: 13th Feb 2013

Mullins

Mullins Horses Are In Tip-Top Order

A real mixed bag of trainers have made it onto Andy Newton’s 'HOT LIST' this week – see which ones here....... Read more

Stat of the Day, 10th February 2013

Stat of the Day: 10/02/13

Stat of the Day: 10/02/13

Stat of the Day, 10th February 2013

With just two fences to jump, Anay Turge looked to have every chance yesterday, but soon faded very quickly and that unfortunately means another zero in the column for SotD.

Today we're returning to the Nottinghamshire Fibresand for their last race on the card. This is a Class 5 Handicap over seven furlongs for the seven runners in the...

4.50 Southwell

It's a course specialist for SotD today, or more precisely a course & distance specialist.

Flying Pickets has had a reasonable  career to date, this 4yr old has already won five A/W races from twenty-four attempts: a decent enough 20.8% strike rate producing a very healthy 16.33pts profit (68% POI), but all five of those wins have come from fifteen runs here at Southwell, giving a course strike rate of 33.33%.

A horse with a 1 in 3 strike rate at any course is more than good enough for consideration for SotD, but on digging sown further, I was very impressed to see that all five wins have been at today's 7f trip where his overall C&D record reads 21112141: a 62.5% win record for 25.33pts profit (+317%)

Flying Pickets really does save his best form for this trip at Southwell and is running well again at present. He finished second last Wednesday over a mile, going down by just a length by a horse that outstayed him, so the drop back to his favoured trip will definitely be of benefit.

And despite this looking like one of the shortest ever SotD blogs, there's not really much more for me to add. He loves the track, he loves the distance and he's in good nick. All I need him to do now, is win! 😀

This race is, however, admittedly tougher than his previous victories and this is reflected in the prices available. 6.60 was available with betfair early this morning, but the best BOG price available was 5/1, so the "official" SotD line is 1pt on Flying Pickets at 5/1 BOG, but I always advise you to...

Click here for the latest betting on the 4.50 Southwell

 

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Stat of the Day, 5th February 2013

Stat of the Day: 05/02/13

Stat of the Day: 05/02/13

Stat of the Day, 5th February 2013

No excuses yesterday, as Luccombe Chine was nothing short of disappointing. She never got involved in the race, looked fidgety and unsettled from the off and didn't see out the trip. It's not often that John Quinn has a bad day at Doncaster, but yesterday wasn't great. Even Countrywide Flame's runner-up place in the preceding race was down to the distressing loss of another top quality horse.

Sedgefield has belatedly yet expectedly fallen foul of the latest batch of snow and with conditions looking grim (and worsening) at Market Rasen, we're taking refuge on the Nottinghamshire Fibresand for a nine-runner, six furlong, Class 4 handicap aka the...

3.40 Southwell

Southwell racecourse makes a welcome return to the UK racing scene after an unfortunate absence of eleven weeks and it would seem almost churlish not to take the SotD roadshow there today. And our underlying stat is a little more left field than usual, as opposed to the usual trainer angles we explore.

Southwell's Fibresand surface is reckoned to be the closest approximation to the American tracks and looking back through the records, it seems that young USA-bred sprinters do really rather well here at this time of year.

The American-bred male sprinters (ie 5 to 7 furlongs) aged between 3 and 5 yrs old have won 12 out of 32 times here in February races since January 2010: an impressive 37.5% strike rate generating excellent profits of 39.8pts at SP (+124.4% return), whilst E/W backers have benefited to the tune of 48.7pts profit (76.1%), courtesy of 19 of those 32 runners making the frame.

These figures are further improved by eliminating any runners priced above 16/1, giving us a final analysis of 12/26 (46.15% SR) for 45.8pts profit (+176.2%) and the E/W returns are 19/25 (76%) for 60.7pts (+121.4%)

There is one such horse running today and this is our selection: Mazovian.

Mazovian loves running here at Southwell and has so far secured four victories from twenty-five Southwell outings. This 16% strike rate, whilst not exceptional, has been good enough to generate a modest 5.5pts profit and a course place strike rate of 44% has given E/W backers increased returns of 13.1pts.

It is, however, over today's trip that he seems happiest, as he has won twice with two placed finishes from nine attempts over course & distance, which has rewarded his followers with 10pts (111.11%) level stakes profit and the 44.44% place strike rate has earned E/W backers a4.5pts in the process (80.56%).

These are Mazovian's preferred conditions and he's on a handy enough mark, running off 69, just as he did when winning a handicap over course & distance back in July. He has put in a couple of decent efforts recently on the Wolverhampton polytrack, plus a third-placed finish on soft ground at Leicester showed that today's slower than standard ground shouldn't be too much of a worry.

The race looks an open affair and based on the stats available, I'd prefer the safer E/W option.  The horse has already attracted some support this morning, having opened at 16/1 with BetVictor. The best available now is 10/1 non-BOG with SportingBet, but my call is a 0.5pts E/W bet on Mazovian at 9/1 BOG with Betfred (as of 11.20am), but you really should...

Click here for the latest betting on the 3.40 Southwell

Trainer Stats: 5th Feb 2013

Ron Harris

Ron Harris' Horses Are In Fine Form

See which trainers have made it onto Andy Newton’s Hot-List this week... Read more

Trainers Stats: 30th Jan 2013

Mark Johnston

Johnston Horses Back On-Song.....

With the jumping action still a bit hit and miss due to the weather Andy Newton’s got six more flat yards this week that are in tip-top form..... Read more

Trainer Stats: 23rd Jan 2013

David Simcock

Simcock Has Started 2013 In Fine Form

Andy Newton's got 6 hot trainers to look out for on the AW tracks, plus a big yard who are still looking for their first winner in 2013! Read more

Trainer Stats: 15th Jan 2013

Mullins

122 Winners Already For Willie Mullins

Did you know Willie Mullins has already fired in 122 winners this season? He’s one of seven trainers on Andy Newton’s hot-list this week....... Read more

Well I Declare: 28th November

Well I Declare: 28th November

Well I Declare: 28th November

No UK turf racing today, but we do have all-weather action from Kempton and Lingfield, whilst Wolverhampton now hosts the rescheduled Southwell fixture on...

...WEDNESDAY 28/11:

Kempton:

General stats: I don’t enjoy offering negative statistics though if they save readers money, I am duty bound to head in that direction.  Although both Richard Hannon and Gary Moore offer strike rates of 14% at Kempton, the respective level stake losses for the trainers during the last five years stands at one hundred and forty-six and one hundred and eighteen points.

4.30 & 5.00 (two divisions): The three winners to date have carried weights of 9-4 or more when returned at odds of 20/1-14/1-10/1.

5.30: Both gold medallists thus far have been sent off as 5/4 favourites for their respective events.

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6.00: All five market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions to date, statistics which include three winners.

6.30: Four renewals have slipped by since a successful favourite was recorded since the inaugural market leaders obliged at 9/4 back in 2007.

7.00: We still await the first successful market leader following three contests in which two favourites have secured silver medals, with the other ‘jolly’ finishing out of the money.  All three winners have carried a minimum weight of 8-12.

7.30: Three-year-olds have won three of the last five contests whilst just one (11/4) favourite has prevailed via six renewals thus far.

 

Lingfield:

General stats: Jeremy Noseda, Garry Moss, Marco Botti and Kevin Ryan are the only trainers at Lingfield to have saddled more than one winner (two each) since the ‘new A/W season’ started when the turf campaign finished.  Nineteen favourites (of one description or another) and won via thirty-two races (59.4% ratio), whilst three of the four odds on market leaders have won.

12.00 & 12.30 (two divisions): Four of the eight renewals have been secured by favourites.

1.00: Two favourites have won five contests, though it’s worth pointing out that the last two gold medallists have scored at 66/1 and 25/1.

1.30: All six winners have carried a maximum weight of 9-5 whilst last year’s successful market leader was the first favourite to oblige.  Three of the six favourites have secured toteplacepot positions.

3.10: The six winners have scored at 16/1-16/1-14/1-14/1-6/1-9/2 thus far.  Although this is not a toteplacepot position, it’s worth noting that the last four market leaders have finished in the frame.

3.40: Three-year-olds have secured five of the twelve win and place positions, statistics which include two of the four winners which were returned at 10/1 and 5/2 favourite. The other three market leaders all finished out with the washing.

 

Wolverhampton:

This is the transferred meeting from Southwell.

Trainer Stats: 28th Nov 2012

'Phil' Your Boots With Hobbs' Horses

The weather might be causing havoc around the country this week but Andy Newton’s still got seven trainers to look out for..... Read more

Trainer Stats: 20th Nov 2012

Mullins' Horses Are In Flying Form

Andy Newton has four yards from the flat and four from the NH to look out for this week...... Read more