Tag Archive for: ST JAMES’S PALACE STAKES

St James’s Palace poised to be crowning glory for clash of the Classic winners

Rosallion will face the “biggest test of his life” when he bids to turn the tables on his 2000 Guineas conqueror Notable Speech in the St James’s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot.

This Group One event has often been the scene of a rematch from the opening Classic of the season and 10 years ago Rosallion’s trainer Richard Hannon watched Kingman gain revenge on his very own Newmarket hero Night Of Thunder at the Royal meeting.

Now it is the Everleigh handler seeking redemption for his star colt having lost bragging rights in the one-mile division on the Rowley Mile.

Rosallion did get his own Classic on the board when successful at the Curragh last month, but it is Charlie Appleby’s unbeaten son of Dubawi that poses the acid test for a horse Hannon has always held in the highest regard.

“We’ve been delighted with him since his win in the Irish Guineas and physically he looks like he has come on again,” said Hannon ahead of a race billed as one of the best of the meeting.

“I really couldn’t be happier with him, and like everyone I’m really looking forward to the race – it looks a fantastic race.

“I would rather be drawn one than the outside and I think that will be fine, there are no excuses from there.

“This is probably the biggest test of his life and he will have to be at his very best to win it. Whatever wins this will be an extremely good horse and I think there are probably four of five extremely good horses in there.”

Connections of Notable Speech are respectful of the challenge Rosallion presents, in a race that could firmly establish the one-mile pecking order, with Mario Baratti’s French 2000 Guineas scorer Metropolitan also in the mix.

“We’re always going to be wary of Rosallion because A) he’s a Group One winner and a Classic winner and B) he’s a son of Blue Point and we know what he could bring to Ascot – it was his favourite track,” said Appleby in a preview video on the Godolphin X account.

“We’re also being joined by the French Guineas winner, so it’s going to be a fascinating race, but we’re very pleased with our horse, the way he’s going it – he’s ticked every box.

“It’s billed to be the race of the week and let’s hope it is. We’re very much there with a horse that’s in great order.”

Big-race jockey William Buick is no doubt about Notable Speech’s powers of acceleration ahead of the British Champion Series contest.

William Buick all smiles with Notable Speech at Newmarket
William Buick all smiles with Notable Speech at Newmarket (Bradley Collyer/PA)

Buick said: “I don’t like to compare horses, but I’ve never ridden one before who can do what Notable Speech can do. He’s an extraordinary horse, and the way he won the Guineas was impressive.

“He’d had an unconventional preparation, but he’d shown a very good turn of foot in his last win at Kempton and he’d worked on the grass at Newmarket since then. He’s a very uncomplicated and laid-back character who does what he needs to. So far he’s shown no chinks.”

As well as Metropolitan, the French three-year-olds are also represented by Jerome Reynier’s Darlinghurst who brings smart form to the table and appears an improving colt.

The son of Dark Angel is unbeaten in four starts this season and having accounted for French Derby runner-up First Look when claiming the Group Three Prix de Guiche, has few scars of battle as he takes his place in this red-hot event.

“He hasn’t really had any tough battles or Classic races, so this is going to be like we say in France, his Arc,” said Reynier.

“I guess this became the plan when he won his Class Two in Cagnes-Sur-Mur. The times and the speed of his turn of foot was quite impressive and we said after that we would give him two months off and go for the Prix de Guiche on turf and then if he wins that we would aim to go to Royal Ascot with a chance.

“The way he won the Prix de Guiche with Christophe Soumillon on board was quite impressive and the form has been quite strong with First Look.”

Aidan O’Brien saddled Paddington to take home this prize 12 months ago and will have his first chance of the week to record his 400th Flat winner at the highest level when he saddles both Henry Longfellow and Unquestionable.

Henry Longfellow will be the mount of Ryan Moore
Henry Longfellow will be the mount of Ryan Moore (Damien Eagers/PA)

Both were top-class operators at two, with the former striking in the Vincent O’Brien National Stakes and the latter at the Breeders’ Cup.

However, they struggled to land a blow in their respective early-season Classic assignments and are now required to bounce back to their very best against elite opposition.

“We’ve been very happy with Henry Longfellow since France and everything has gone well – we have just put the French race down as a bit of a non-event really,” O’Brien told Racing TV.

“It was our first run and we were just feeling our way really, but he came out of it well and we have been very happy with his work since. This was always his target after France and we’re looking forward to seeing him run again.

Unquestionable is a useful second string for Aidan O'Brien
Unquestionable is a useful second string for Aidan O’Brien (PA)

“We always thought the world of this horse, but obviously it is a very good race and that is what everybody wants and we’re delighted about. We’re all going to learn about all of them really, but we’re very happy and we wouldn’t be running if we weren’t happy and prepared to put him in there with a fighting chance.”

On Unquestionable, he added: “He ran a very solid race at the Curragh and was always going to improve from that, he’s a very solid horse.

“Obviously this was always going to be his second run and he was running at the Curragh with an eye on Ascot as well.”

Ed Walker’s Heron Stakes winner Almaqam and Owen Burrows’ 2000 Guineas fifth Alyanaabi complete the field for one of the opening day’s feature events.



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Royal Ascot 2024: Day One Preview, Tips

Where does the time go? Barely a week ago, or so it seems, we were cheering home the winner of the Cheltenham varietal of the Gold Cup and now, actually three months later, the Ascot iteration is upon us. No fences, and no racecourse prefix - it is, simply, the Gold Cup - but that's not until Day 3/Thursday, the cornerstone of five sumptuous afternoons of equine action fit for a King.

There are fewer overseas challengers this season, more's the pity, and some of the races look a little weaker than standard, truth be told; but those are the negatives done with. On the plus side, it's an uber competitive week of racing with a far broader array of trainers and jockeys likely to hit the limelight than was the case in mid-March for that other showcase event. And, in the Coronation Stakes, we have what looks one of the best renewals for many a year if they all, or nearly all, stand their ground. That, again, is for another day.

To Tuesday, Day One, and an overture that comprises a trio of Group 1 contests as well as the Group 2 Coventry Stakes: music to the ears, indeed.

After the success of last year's previews, where a nasty dose of the Covid lurgy necessitated a request for some assistance, I've again called in some crack writers to share the coverage of this year's Royal meeting. Specifically, I've asked six top scribes to share their thoughts on one race each per day Tuesday to Friday, leaving the seventh for me. That made for a lovely blend of styles last year, as well as some cracking winners (headlined by Gavin Priestley's excellent 33/1 shout - freely available for some time after publication - on Bradsell), and it's also an opportunity for a few of the best tipsters around to 'show and tell' their modus operandi.

As I always say when I write these mega-posts in the big meeting weeks, it's the same amount of effort that goes into the research whether the picks win or lose; so please try to keep an eye on each contributor's 'process' - how they present their case - as well as their performance in this tiny four-races-each sample.

If you like what you read, you can check out more of their work at the links provided; but, of course, this is the geegeez.co.uk Royal Ascot preview, so allow your editor to kick things off in the Queen Anne Stakes...

2.30 Queen Anne Stakes (1m, Group 1, 4yo+)

Preview by Matt Bisogno

A straight track mile Group 1 for older horses and one that has thrown its share of shocks amidst the shorties in recent years. To wit, in the last six renewals, we've had winners at 1/6 and 2/7, as well as two 33/1 bombs, most recently Triple Time last year. There was also 14/1 Lord Glitters in that list so, in the absence of anything remotely odds-on-looking, maybe we should aim for a bold start to proceedings...

Fourteen are declared, though not Inspiral, one time ante post favourite for the race. Her red, white and blue Cheveley Park Stud silks will instead by worn by Rab Havlin on Audience. The five-year-old gelded son of Iffraaj was last seen making all in the Group 1 Lockinge Stakes at Newbury on his first attempt at a mile. Since 2011, Canford Cliffs, Frankel, Ribchester, Palace Pier and Baaeed have all completed the Lockinge-Queen Anne double but none started bigger than 11/8 for the second leg.

Audience is quite lightly raced for a five year old - just 13 starts to date - and his best form is on decent ground which, after a lot of heavy shower chat, looks like being the prevailing terrain for Tuesday. He's a front runner typically, which was how Circus Maximus got it done in 2020 under a masterful Ryan Moore ride; but, as far as I can tell, that's the only front-running winner since at least 2008. It's just very tough to lead all the way on the straight mile in a double-figure field.

One horse who managed to do that was Big Rock, a six-length winner of the QEII Stakes in a field of eleven on British Champions Day last October. The ground there was soft and he was trained by Christopher Head, who had a strike rate of 27% in France in 2023. The ground here is good and the trainer is now Maurizio Guarnieri, who has a strike rate of 7.5% in 2024 (9/119) in France. Big Rock's owner, Yeguada Centurion, under chief decision-maker Leopoldo Fernández Pujals, removed all of their horses from Head late last year, a migration that also includes Blue Rose Cen, entered later in the week.

Neither Big Rock nor Blue Rose Cen has yet come close to matching their form under Head for new handler Guarnieri, and that is a big concern. Big Rock was sixth, 15 lengths behind Audience in the Lockinge, having been sent off an 11/4 shot. It's a leap of faith to think he can reverse placings even allowing for the fact that he fluffed the start somewhat. In any case, a cleaner break would likely have resulted in him contesting the lead with Audience, an act in favour of neither of them in terms of their win prospects.

Facteur Cheval was the closest horse to Big Rock in the QEII, and his sole start since was a short head verdict in the Group 1 Dubai Turf (1m1f, good) at Meydan in March. He held several positions during the race before just getting the best of a duel in the final furlong. As mentioned, his sire Ribchester won this race, and as well as silver here last autumn, he was an unlucky second in the G1 Sussex Stakes last summer. He is a top notcher who handles most underfoot conditions, stays a straight mile well, is tractable in terms of run style, and may have improved from four to five.

Roger Varian saddles the progressive Charyn. Third in last season's St James's Palace Stakes on the round mile at the Royal meeting, he'd started to look exposed by late summer; but this season began with back-to-back scores at Doncaster and Sandown before a runner up slot behind Audience in the Lockinge. Although the form figures look good, however, there has been no breakout in his ratings: he looks a rock solid 115 (or so) horse. Maybe that will be good enough to win this year but there is also a slight niggle about his ability to handle good to firm, should it be that quick on the opening day. He's yet to race on it and, by Dark Angel, might just be better suited to a little ease.

Maljoom was a big sectional eye-catcher in the 2022 St James's Palace Stakes, as I flagged at the time. Alas, he was then not sighted for 15 months before running down the field in the G2 Joel Stakes (1m, good to firm) at Newmarket last September. On his only subsequent run, in the Queen Anne trial race at Ascot seven weeks ago, he was too keen and taken to the front before running out of gas towards the finish. A bigger field with some pace to aim at ought to see him settle better, though that '22 SJP was not a vintage renewal (though nor especially is the '24 QA).

Hayley Turner is almost as adept at riding this straight track as Jamie Spencer, and she executed the waiting tactics to perfection when bringing Docklands with the proverbial withering run to snaffle the Britannia Handicap a year ago. They almost repeated the feat in the valuable Balmoral Handicap last autumn but didn't get the clearest transit and had to settled for third of 20; that off a 10lb higher mark. This season, Docklands has run second in a pair of Listed contests, form which doesn't obviously translate to a podium finish in a Group 1. But we know the track and trip will suit, he's ground agnostic and will be given every chance; he just might not be good enough.

It's really tricky to know what to make of Dolayli. Francis-Henri Graffard's five-year-old has been running mainly on all-weather and over further in recent times and has yet to race on a quicker turf surface than good to soft. In spite of those imponderables, his form is decent: six wins from ten lifetime starts and a length fourth in the G1 Prix Ganay last time (1m1 1/2f, soft). I'd expect Mickael Barzalona to be patient with him and, if you don't believe Big Rock's official rating (I don't), then he's very little to find with the best of the rest. But this will be quite a different examination from those he's sat hitherto.

Poker Face looks relatively exposed but did get to within a length and a quarter of Charyn in a Sandown Group 2 this season, giving the winner three pounds; on that basis alone, a price disparity of 20/1 vs 3/1 might be wrong, though it's more an argument against Charyn's price than for Poker Face's in my book. PF was another far back in the Lockinge though he did win a mile Group 2 at Longchamp last September.

We're into the long grass now, where Brave Emperor was progressing nicely, from a German G3 to an Italian G2 to a valuable Qatari stakes race. The Hong Kong Champions Mile came next, and he was well beaten - eminently forgivable - before a slightly more difficult to excuse tail end finish in the Ganay. He wasn't beaten far there and may not get nine furlongs. Archie Watson is to be noted at the Royal meeting, with five winners to his name already, including three last year; but it's not easy to see this one getting his week off to a flyer.

Third in last year's 2000 Guineas, Royal Scotsman failed to back that effort up in three subsequent Group 1 races in 2023. Dropped to Group 3 level last time, he made all in the Diomed Stakes at Epsom. His run style is normally held up, however, and I expect Jamie Spencer will revert to type - for horse and rider - here. With plenty of Group placed form as a juvenile as well, he's not completely out of the question.

Like Docklands, Witch Hunter was a handicap winner at Royal Ascot 2023, in his case over seven furlongs in the Buckingham Palace Stakes. That man Spencer did the steering on the 50/1 shot then but he's deserted the Richard Hannon-trained five-year-old in favour of Royal Scotsman.

Karl Burke sends Flight Plan, winner of a Leopardstown Group 2 (1m, good) on Irish Champions Weekend. This chap was thumped on seasonal debut in the Lockinge before a slightly more hopeful performance when 3rd in a G3 over an inadequate seven furlongs. Upped to a mile here, he should do better; but he will have to do a good bit better.

And what of Cairo? He was 2nd in the Irish 2000 Guineas last spring when trained by Aidan O'Brien; but his best efforts since were a neck defeat to Brave Emperor in Doha and, since changing to the Alice Haynes yard, 2nd in a Listed race over a mile and a furlong at Leopardstown last time. He was unlucky in running there, without suggesting it would have changed the result, and he could conceivably travel well through the first half of the race. He has a good bit to find on the figures though.

And rounding out the field is Hi Royal. My first instinct was to strike a line through this fella's chance, but then a couple of things caught my eye. Firstly, he's a four-year-old and remains a colt where plenty in this field have been de-tackled. Second, and more interesting, is the record of his trainer Kevin Ryan with older horses at Royal Ascot. Since 2013, he's sent out 21 four- or five-year-olds that went off 33/1 or shorter. Six of them won and another four were placed. Of course, one of that sextet was 33/1 Queen Anne winner Triple Time twelve months ago.

 

 

As I write, Hi Royal is 66/1 so wouldn't fit the 'system' criteria, but he has a run two back that gives him a bit of a form squeak in any case. That was in the G3 Earl of Sefton over nine furlongs at Newmarket, where he was just run down late on. The drop back to a mile in the Lockinge last time saw him get closer than a number of better fancied rivals here having been agitated in the stalls and possibly losing his race there. He's ridden here, as he was at Newbury, by a certain Ryan Moore and I'm inclined to think he's worthy of a tiny speculative wager.

Queen Anne Summary

The opening race of Royal Ascot 2024, the Queen Anne Stakes, is a real headscratcher. The best form line by a way is Big Rock's G1 course and distance score last October; but the horse has run only once since - very moderately - and that on his debut for a new stable that generally fires at a much lower level, in terms of both quality and strike rate, than his previous conditioners. Taking Big Rock out of the equation, Audience recorded a breakout effort last time in the G1 Lockinge on his first try at a mile. It's possible he could continue to progress at the new trip but his run style - going from the front - is similar to Big Rock's and also Brave Emperor's on a track and at a trip that rarely favours contested early speed.

 

 

The solid one is Facteur Cheval, who comes here off the back of a Group 1 win, albeit over nine furlongs and in Dubai; but he can back that up with placed efforts in four straight European G1's beforehand. Therein lies his problem: he does tend to find one too good and, at a price unforgiving of such a trait, he may again frustrate win players. Meanwhile, Charyn has hit a winning groove and some consistency in his performance ratings: they're unsexy but might be good enough. I just don't like his price.

Bits and pieces of place cases can be made for almost all of the rest and it might be a race to bet a couple of rags at massive prices. Better that than have a good win bet on a fancied horse that finishes second in my book. As I say, you can almost pays your money and takes your chance, so it is in that "I'm sorry, I haven't a clue" context that I offer most tentatively 20/1 Royal Scotsman who comes here off a win and was 3rd in the 2022 Coventry; and 66/1 Hi Royal whose price demands a nicker each way - four places at least!

It will at least get ever so slightly easier on occasion after this...

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3.05 Coventry Stakes (6f, Group 2, 2yo)

Presented by John Burke's "Victor Value" service

First run in 1890 and named after the 9th Earl of Coventry, the Coventry Stakes is arguably the premier juvenile race at Royal Ascot. Winners of this race often go on to compete in higher-profile events later in their careers. Notable recent winners include Caravaggio (2016), Buratino (2015), War Command (2013), Dawn Approach (2012) and Canford Cliffs (2009).

Key Trends (Last 5 Years):

Previous Runs: All five winners and 14 of the 15 placed horses had run once or twice before the Coventry.

Trainer: Archie Watson has had 1 winner from 5 runners with 3 places, yielding an each-way return of +£8.80.

Draw Bias: Recent winners were drawn in stalls 3, 6, 17, 2, and 6, suggesting a slight preference for low to mid draws.

Top Contenders:

Camille Pissarro (Aidan O’Brien) - Impressive debut winner at Navan; narrowly beaten (a head) in the Group 3 Marble Hill last time. Strong credentials for top connections and likely to handle quicker ground well.

Cowardofthecounty (Joseph O’Brien) - Battled well to win on debut on soft to heavy ground at the Curragh. Needs to prove himself on a quicker surface but is open to plenty of improvement if he does.

Midnight Strike (Joseph O’Brien) - Stylish winner on debut; third in the Marble Hill (half a length behind Camille Pissarro) last time. Should be competitive if adapting to quicker ground conditions. Oisin Murphy is booked for the ride. Stablemate of Cowardofthecounty.

Andesite (Karl Burke) - Overcame greenness to win a York novice on debut last month, with the form holding up well. Ascot’s stiffer track could play to his strengths, and he’s the sole Karl Burke runner in the line-up.

Catalyse (Richard Fahey) - Easy debut winner at Hamilton 16 days ago. Steps up in class but looks open to significant improvement and is the pick of retained jockey James Doyle.

Electrolyte (Archie Watson) - Comfortable winner at Ayr on debut, handles good ground well. Solid contender despite retained jockey James Doyle opting for Catalyse. A good each-way contender for a trainer with an excellent race record.

Arran (Paul & Oliver Cole) - Front-running winner at Newmarket on debut in April; form boosted by subsequent winners. Has potential for further improvement and is another with each-way claims.

Coventry Stakes Verdict

The Coventry Stakes is always an exciting race, and this year is no exception. Among the favourites, I prefer Cowardofthecounty over Camille Pissarro. However, considering the current odds, I see the value in backing Andesite and Electrolyte.

Betting Advice: Initially, I considered Electrolyte for an each-way bet, but I've decided to keep Andesite onside as well.

Electrolyte: £3 each way at 28/1 (William Hill & bet365, paying 5 places)
Andesite: £11 win at 9/1

I wouldn't recommend taking lower odds than these. However, if Electrolyte places, a small profit is gained.

 

 

3.45 King Charles III Stakes (5f, Group 1, 3yo+)

Presented by Gavin Priestley's "Festival Trends" service

We have had 11 winners from the 27 renewals of the Kings Stand, now King Charles III Stakes, since 1997 that have been trained outside of the UK and Ireland (France, America, Hong Kong, Spain and Australia) making it the most 'international' race run at Royal Ascot in the last quarter of a century. This year Ascot has attracted a single overseas runner, Asfoora from Australia. Ireland's contribution in that time period consists only of dual winner Sole Power who is the one Irish-trained horse to win the Kings Charles III from the 33 runners to have tried; but I'm banking on that all changing this year with one of my best bets of the meeting.

VALIANT FORCE did me and my subscribers a big favour at this meeting last year when winning the Norfolk at an enormous price (150/1) and I think he can follow Bradsell's lead from this race 12 months ago and come back to win the Kings Charles III as a 3yo having won a 2yo race at the Royal meeting the previous year. He's been on my radar for this ever since that win last year and this 5f speedster has done little to change my mind in four starts since. He flopped on his run prior to the Norfolk last season when tried over 6f and found his stamina stretched again over that trip when trying the Group 1 Prix Morny on his first run after the Norfolk when only 5th to Vandeek.

We didn't see him again until the Breeders Cup when, back down to 5f from a wide draw, he flew home to get beat just 1/2 length by Big Evs, closing on the winner all the way to the line. He stayed in America after that run to join Jorge Delgado where he ran 2nd over 5f on turf and 4th over 6f on dirt earlier this year. He's recently re-joined Adrian Murray and makes his first start this side of the pond since the Morny run and first run for 94 days. There have been plenty of winners of this race coming off a break including the 3yo Dominica in 2002 who won on seasonal debut.

In one of the poorest renewals of the King Charles III for many a year (there's been at least one runner in the field rated 115+ since at least 2007), with just 3lb splitting the top eight runners on official ratings, he won't be lacking in class and has nothing to find with the favourite on that run at the Breeders' Cup last year, where he travelled noticeably further than the winner.

With the ground in his favour, the stable in form and a good draw (five of the last seven winners were drawn 10+) I think he has an excellent chance of repeating his course and distance win from last year.

SELECTION: VALIANT FORCE (EW) at 16/1 general / 12/1 6 places Skybet

 

4.25 St James's Palace Stakes (1m, Group 1, 3yo)

Presented by Josh Wright from "Racing To Profit"

To race four we hurtle and hopefully by this stage my esteemed blogging colleagues have got us off to a flyer. This preview is rather unoriginal in that I cannot see past the favourite, Notable Speech, who at 11/8 still looks good value to my eyes, but as I type that price is vanishing.

Before talking about the race in more depth, allow me to share some content that may be useful more generally, whatever the result of this race.

In what follows, I've had a look at all Royal Ascot Group 1s, for 3YOs only.

Since 2010, those horses officially rated 121+ (Notable Speech 122, next in 118) are 6 winners from 12 runners, 8 have placed (including all winners), for a Betfair SP Actual vs Expected of 1.17. Remarkably, they’re still performing above market expectations.

If we go back to the start of 2008 and look at Royal Ascot / Group 1s / 3YO Only / Top Rated on Official Ratings…
54 bets / 20 wins / 31 places (incl. wins) / 37% sr / +22 SP / +32 BFSP / BFAE 1.37

Not bad. Looking at those sent off 10/1 or shorter SP improves those figures to 20/47, 31p, +39 BFSP, and at the last three meetings, 6/9,8p, +16 BFSP.

Within those criteria, if we just focus on those that finished in the first two on their last start…
32 bets / 16 wins / 22 places / 50% sr / +27 SP / +34 BFSP / BFAE 1.47

This is a decent little micro angle to keep onside at the Royal meeting moving forwards, with this race, the Commonwealth Cup and the Coronation Stakes the 3YO races in focus.

Moving back to the St James's Palace Stakes...

Notable Speech – of course he hits this micro angle, and indeed horses in this race who were sent off favourite having been last seen winning the 2000 Guineas, are 2/3, 3p. Charlie Appleby has saddled two SJP favourites: Pinatubo, who finished 2nd, and last year’s winner Coroebus, sent off 10/11 fav. Notable Speech may end up such a price.

At the previous five Royal Ascot meetings it has paid to keep Charlie Appleby and William Buick close, especially with horses aged three and who won their last start… 4/12,7p, +11 BFSP.

The yard enters this week in blistering form: in the last 14 days, 4/10, 6p, 79% of rivals beaten, against a 365 day average of 66%. It’s not a bad time for the string the come alive!

The horse… it was hard not to be impressed by Notable Speech at Newmarket on his turf debut. He’d previously had three races on the AW, easily winning a conditions stakes at Kempton on his penultimate start, a performance which had the clock watchers and sectional timing maestros purring. In the 2000 Guineas, he settled very well, looked straightforward, and had to get himself into the race on the far side, on the wing, moving up effortlessly and putting the race to bed in a matter of strides. I suspect were he following Rosallion through that race he’d have been even more impressive. It was visually stunning and of course he’s still open to stacks of improvement.

He knows how to race around a bend from his Kempton sorties and has tactical speed – that could be a big advantage here in a race which doesn’t look likely to be strongly run, on paper anyway! Buick may not want to be as far back as he was at Newmarket, but he appears the sort who can race wherever his jockey wishes to place him, given his change of gears and the ease with which he moves through a race. This will be the fastest ground Notable Speech has faced, which is an unknown, but of course he may relish it. That is the only chink I think those opposing him may cling to.

However I’m struggling to find a negative or a substantive reason from which to oppose him. He’s the best horse on all the figures and brings the best piece of recent form to the table, Rosallion subsequently winning the Irish 2000 Guineas, having got closest to Notable Speech at Newmarket. Richard Hannon’s charge is the best he’s trained apparently, but I can’t see why he overturns the form here, assuming Notable Speech runs his race, of course. He has his own questions if this is a slow pace, as he can take a firm grip and will need to settle. Maybe he will be chasing the favourite home again, and the forecast, or reverse forecast could be a way to play, if wishing to get involved for interest.

Aidan O’Brien always has the capacity to crash the party, his Henry Longfellow currently third in the market as I type. The fast ground is an unknown to him, and there's a chance he may have preferred rain. With his trainer expecting him to leave behind his poor effort in French 2000 Guineas on 12th May, maybe the Ballydoyle team will have transformed Henry as they did City of Troy! On pedigree he should improve plenty for this 1m trip, but he needs to. I would like to think he’ll be battling it out for 2nd place with Rosallion, but I suppose this game is rarely that straightforward! We shall see.

I’m firmly in the NOTABLE SPEECH camp, which may be very unoriginal but I’m minded not to be overly creative for the sake of it. I think the latter two mentioned need the favourite to underperform, and the others require all the top three to have an off day, or to themselves step forward considerably on the evidence to date. The favourite could make 11/8 look value, if you don’t mind a short price. In any case, do note some of the stats above, as they’re sure to help you land on a few winners moving forward, whether during the rest of this week, or next year!

 

'Ever fancied owning a share in a racehorse? Josh now has 11 horses in training and over 170 shareholders.

Keep informed by joining his Racing To Profit Syndicate email list for free, HERE>>>

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If you're betting placepots or jackpots (or quadpots or Scoop6) at Royal Ascot, you're much better off using Tix - it's free so check it out today!

 

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5.05 Ascot Stakes (2m4f, Class 2, 4yo+ Handicap)

Preview by our own David Massey 

It would be easy enough, given that Ahorsewithnoname won this for Nicky Henderson last year, to think that this is a race dominated by jumps trainers; but that’s not really the case given Andrew Balding, Alan King and Ian Williams, twice, were also winners of this in the past five years. Granted, King and Williams are dual-purpose, but you get the drift.

The Irish trainers dominate the market this year, with Mullins, Elliott, O’Leary (sister of the suspended Tony Martin) and Jarlath Fahey training the first four in the betting; and, whilst the unexposed My Lyka is going to garner the majority of interest on what is only his second start for Willie, of that front four, if you had to have your house on one to run his race, it would have to be Pied Piper.

Far better known as a top-quality hurdler, he’s still a useful tool on the Flat and ran a cracker to be second to The Shunter in the Cesarewitch last autumn, staying on all the way to the line. He was trying to give the winner 2lb there, and it was merely another excellent effort in a raft of competitive handicaps, Flat and hurdles, that he regularly contends.

It’s worth remembering his sixth place finish in this two years ago when he didn’t get the best of runs: whilst by no means an unlucky loser, he’d surely have gone closer with a clear passage. He was trying to give winner, future Group 1 horse Coltrane, 3lb taking into account Callum Hutchinson’s 5lb on the day, hardly a shoddy effort.

Those looking for something at a bigger price might consider the evergreen Tritonic and another of the Irish contingent, Nusret.

Tritonic was third in this last year and is 5lb lower this time around. Two runs this season have been no more than satisfactory, although the sprint for the line at Southwell last time after they crawled through the race would definitely not have suited him. The question is whether he still wants to do it at the age of seven, and it’s a fair question to ask; but he’s got his conditions today, and maybe the reapplication of cheekpieces might just buck his ideas up. He has a decent draw to work from and could keep drifting in the market, as he’s not a sexy selection at all, so don’t worry if you don’t get BOG from your bookie - back it at Betfair SP.

Nusret is a useful dual-purpose sort for Joseph O’Brien and ran respectably when fifth at the Punchestown Festival, sticking well to his task in a Listed Handicap Hurdle. It’s worth remembering how very easily he won the Race To The Ebor Handicap at the Curragh last June; despite having to wait, and wait again, for the gap to appear, once it did he quickened through it and won a very comfortable half a length, looking like there was a lot left in the tank. He ran to a similar level at Leopardstown next time, the slight drop back in trip counting against him, and whilst this extreme stamina test is something new to him, he’s worth a crack at it. A mark of 91 is very workable if he stays.

 

5.40 Wolferton Stakes (1m2f, Listed, 4yo+)

Preview by Rory Delargy

The complicating factor for me in the Wolferton is the presence of my punting bête noire, Checkandchallenge, in the field. The son of Fast Company was last behind Mqse de Sevigne in the Group 1 Prix d’Ispahan last time, but was beaten less than 3¾ lengths in a tactical race, and the sixth that day, Marhaba Ya Sanafi, won a Group 3 at the weekend. William Knight has never had his horses in better form, and I can feel the inexorable cliff-horse pull. Must. Resist. Temptation.

Phew, that was close.

The draw is always worth a look at Ascot, irrespective of trip, and while this is a relatively new race at the meeting, there have been enough runnings to make a judgment. Despite the layout of the track suggesting low numbers should have the best of it, that hasn’t been the case, and the only horse to win from one of the two lowest stalls in the race’s history was 13/8 favourite Rainbow Peak in 2010 (he was drawn 16 of 16 back in 2010 before the numbering method changed). High numbers, especially those held up, can also struggle, though three winners in the last decade have come from stall 12.

In terms of pace, no horse has made all since 2006 when the race was run as a handicap, but even hold up horses can find trouble on the run to the bend with three getting the in-running comment “badly hampered” last year. Ideally, you want a horse with the relative early speed to take a handy position behind the leaders and be able to make a move early in the straight.

With the ability to cope with firmish ground (the ground will be quickening throughout the day) a prerequisite, it’s easy to make a shortlist and, being brutal about it, I’m down to two horses fairly quickly. Israr stands out in terms of recent form and race conditions, while he’s got the ideal run style to give him every chance. As such he’s a deserving favourite, and I’d not put anyone off his chances.

The other on my short list is Astro King who can be forgiven a rare below-par effort over 1½m at Newmarket last time. Twice placed at this meeting for Sir Michael Stoute, he’s an improved performer for current connections and ran a cracker to be second in the Group 3 Earl of Sefton Stakes on his return to the UK in April.

Both of Astro King’s wins for Daniel & Clare Kubler have come on good to firm ground and he is better at 1m1f/1¼m than a mile. His stall is the same one that Contributer, Addeybb and Royal Champion have scored from, and he should get a nice tow into the race from habitual front-runner Cemhaan, making him look a decent each-way bet at around 14/1.

Recommended: 1pt e/w Astro King @ 14/1 (general – 4 places)

 

6.15 Copper Horse Stakes (1m6f, Class 2 Handicap, 4yo+)

Presented by Sam Darby's "Winning Post Profits" service

This is still a relatively new race with only four previous renewals and, with this course and distance generally only seeing small field races during the rest of the year, draw and pace data remains relatively sparse. What data we do have (Geegeez Gold racecards, PACE tab) suggests that there is a slight advantage being drawn lower and you probably don’t want to be miles off the pace.

 

 

There doesn’t look to be much pace contention with A Piece Of Heaven probably the sole forward-going type. That factor, and the tendency for prominent racers to be advantaged, suggests anything that is held up in the rear here is going to need to be extremely well-handicapped, and lucky in the run, to win.

 

 

It’s difficult to make strong conclusions from the limited draw data but when sorting the dividual draw data table (Geegeez Gold racecards, DRAW tab) by PRB3 it seems telling that the top performing berths are the nine single-figure stalls and the seven worst performers are the double-figure stalls.

Stall 14 has previously won so it’s not as though we can just put a line through the higher draws, but we can probably slightly mark up those who have a lower stall.

On to the runners…

I’m always a little frustrated by these staying handicaps at Ascot as Willie Mullins tends to farm them with horses that are almost impossible to back. That said, I’m looking to bet him in one later in the week!

Generally they have little to no flat form in this country and often have something to prove on fast ground and over the trip they are running. This year’s favourite is slightly different, though. Belloccio is pretty exposed, having run fifteen times on the flat in the UK for David Menuisier. If you were building a profile for the horse from those runs you’d say he was a top handicapper around Kempton (Listed winner) but not a turf horse at all having beaten only ten rivals home in his last eight flat turf runs. If he was still with his old trainer he’d likely be an outsider for this.

So the big question is how magical is Willie Mullins at transforming horses? Belloccio won a maiden hurdle on his only start for his new trainer with a winning margin of nine lengths so suddenly things look more positive in regards to running on turf but I still have strong reservations. The runner up from that race was beaten three times as far next time out at the same level and the third was pulled up on his next start. Despite the impressive winning margin, a poor maiden hurdle score doesn’t necessarily prove he’s thrown in off a mark of 100 here.

He’s also seemingly been kept away from fast ground throughout his career which is another reason he’s opposable. Mullins had the one-two in this last year but if he ever had a runner at Royal Ascot that is opposable it's this horse. I’m not saying he can’t win, but I am saying he’s a terrible price.

Fox Journey is a horse I followed last year and his last run over this trip was an excellent 3rd in the Melrose Handicap behind Middle Earth. He seemingly took his form to a whole new level on his first start this season when winning a 12f handicap by 11 lengths, and the handicapper could have been a lot harsher than giving him only a 9lb rise for that. I have suspicions about the strength of that form so I’m not sure how well handicapped he is now but he at least seems to have conditions in his favour so could go well.

A Piece Of Heaven is another who won easily last time out and he showed plenty of versatility dropping back to 12f, having previously won over two miles. This looks a much tougher race than the last two he’s won and he’s gone up a total of 16lbs for those so I wouldn’t be especially quick to back him from stall 18, even if he could get across and secure an easy lead.

The one I like the most is Bague D’Or, but by the time you read this he’s probably going to have been balloted out of the race as he’s the first reserve at the time of writing. I’ll be keeping my fingers crossed that there’s a non-runner before the cut off because he remains unexposed at this trip with form figures of 1121 on good or better ground, including a course and distance success. His only defeat at 14f on decent ground came at the hands of Trawlerman, who went on to win the Ebor on his next start and subsequently rate 21lbs higher (and is a warm fancy in the Gold Cup market).

Bague D’Or won at Newmarket on his first start this season, in pretty comfortable fashion, and he can race mid-division to prominent so should be well placed in this from stall 9 if he does get a run. On the assumption he doesn’t get a run, we need a backup selection and conveniently there is a runner in this who was just two lengths behind Bague D’Or last time at Newmarket and is now 4lbs better off. That runner is Intinso and if the first time tongue tie can help with his habitual keenness he could have a massive chance here.

If both Bague D’Or and Intinso get to run I still prefer the former (they are both around the 12/1 to 14/1 mark) but you could argue that Intinso has a great chance of reversing Newmarket form. Intinso was probably unsuited by leading that day so can potentially be marked up a little and he’s also more lightly raced than Bague D’Or so could improve further, especially if settling better.

Intinso has run three decent races this year, winning easily at Wolverhampton before finding a tactical race over 11f at Kempton a bit too much, but he still stayed on into 3rd, doing best of those not up with the pace throughout. Then last time out he probably could have done with a lead when beaten by Bague D’Or.

He’s drawn in stall 2 and if he can settle on the rail, just behind A Piece Of Heaven, he may be ideally positioned turning for home and could be seen to very best effect. It’s also worth noting that Amtiyaz, who won this for the same connections in 2021, is a half-brother to Intinso.

So, to summarise, I’m pretty keen on an each way wager on 14/1 BAGUE D’OR if he does get a run (stakes returned if balloted out); but, in the likelihood he doesn’t get in, I’ll be having a small bet on 14/1 INTINSO instead at the same sort of price.

 

Sam Darby's Winning Post Profits

 

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And that's how our team sees the opening day of the 2024 Royal Ascot meeting. Lots of prices to go at and perfectly possible to have a complete wipeout, but one winner will likely cover the losers. Be lucky, and keep some powder dry for the battles to come!

Matt



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Royal Ascot opens with a St James’s Palace cracker

Three Guineas winners will clash on the opening day of Royal Ascot as Notable Speech, Rosallion and Metropolitan all stood their ground for Tuesday’s St James’s Palace Stakes.

Charlie Appleby’s Notable Speech enhanced his unbeaten record when getting the better of Rosallion in the opening Classic of the season at Newmarket, but Richard Hannon’s well-regarded colt achieved his own Classic glory when outbattling stablemate Haatem in the Irish equivalent.

Mario Baratti’s Metropolitan adds further spice having picked up the French version of the Guineas at ParisLongchamp, while the international challenge is bolstered by fellow French raider Darlinghurst who has won four in a row this term.

Henry Longfellow was down the field in the French capital and also takes his spot in a red-hot Group One event which features stablemate and Breeders’ Cup winner Unquestionable, Owen Burrows’ Alyanaabi and Ed Walker’s Heron Stakes hero Almaqam.

With three Group One events in the first four races, the action comes thick and fast and as expected Inspiral is an absentee from the curtain-raising Queen Anne Stakes.

Queen Elizabeth II Stakes winner Big Rock returns to the scene of his brilliant British Champions Day success looking to claim a notable victory for new handler Maurizio Guarnieri, with Dubai Turf winner Facteur Cheval another leading contender for France representing Jerome Reynier.

Charyn and his Lockinge conqueror Audience are also involved, with the latter getting the nod to be the sole representative of John and Thady Gosden and owners Cheveley Park Stud in Inspiral’s absence.

Big Evs returns to Royal Ascot for the King Charles III Stakes
Big Evs returns to Royal Ascot for the King Charles III Stakes (Tim Goode/PA)

Big Evs tops the 17 declared in the King Charles III Stakes as Mick Appleby’s Breeders’ Cup champion bids for back-to-back victories at the meeting, with Australian raider Asfoora, Haydock winners Believing and Kerdos, and Ed Bethell’s stable star Regional amongst the other contenders.

A full field will head to post for the Coventry Stakes – the first two-year-old event of the week – with Ballydoyle’s Camille Pissarro and Joseph O’Brien’s Cowardofthecounty both well fancied.

My Lyka will aim to give Willie Mullins a fourth Ascot Stakes in 10 years on his first Flat start for the Closutton handler, while Botanical will have his supporters amongst a field of 16 for the Listed Wolferton Stakes, bidding to enhance Roger Varian’s recent race record.

Mullins also has a strong hand in the closing Copper Horse handicap with Belloccio, a race the perennial Irish jumps trainer won last year with Vauban.



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‘All systems go’ for Notable Speech ahead of Rosallion rematch

William Buick is relishing the next instalment of Notable Speech and Rosallion’s one-mile rivalry when the two 2000 Guineas winners meet in the St James’s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot.

The Godolphin number one was the man on board Charlie Appleby’s Newmarket hero when he showed a blistering turn of foot to account for Richard Hannon’s charge in the opening Classic of the summer.

That race had a strong visual look to it and results since have only helped confirm that view, none more so than Rosallion gaining Classic redemption at the Curragh in the Irish equivalent.

Now the duo are set to clash once again on the opening day of the Royal meeting, in a race that promises to be one of the highlights of the whole week.

Buick told Racing TV: “I’ve been looking forward to riding him again since the Guineas and it’s all systems go for what is possibly the race of the season, you just have to look forward to it.

“I was impressed with Rosallion in Ireland and I thought Sean (Levey, jockey) gave him a very good ride. I thought he did well to get up when he did and he is a top-class miler, so the rematch is on.

“I haven’t ridden a miler that did what Notable Speech did that day in the Guineas. It was a huge performance he put in that day and you don’t see that very often. He is hugely exciting.”



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Chaldean all set for Royal Ascot clash of the Classic winners

Guineas hero Chaldean will bid to repeat his impressive Newmarket performance when he goes for the St James’s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot on Tuesday.

The Andrew Balding-trained Frankel colt headed to the first Classic of the season with question marks having unshipped Frankie Dettori at the start in his intended tune-up in the Greenham at Newbury.

But he silenced the doubters in style on the Rowley Mile to claim 2000 Guineas glory as he showed all the qualities that made him such a formidable two-year-old last year. He now heads to Berkshire attempting to add to his impeccable CV.

Both Jim Bolger’s Poetic Flare and Charlie Appleby’s Coroebus have completed the 2000 Guineas/St James’s Palace double in the past two seasons and connections are not worried about Chaldean’s draw in stall one as he attempts to follow in their footsteps, tackling a round course for the first time.

“He’s pretty uncomplicated. He can jump and be handy and he can jump and take a pull. He’s a versatile horse when you look at his races,” said Barry Mahon, European racing manager for owners Juddmonte.

“Last year at Doncaster he had a small field to contend with and had to make it, then Newmarket he settled in and took a lead, so he’s versatile and it will be great to see him back.

“The horse has never done anything wrong in his career to date and hopefully he can continue his good run. Andrew is happy, everyone at Kingsclere feels he is in the right place and we’re all excited for Tuesday.”

Frankie Dettori celebrates on Chaldean after winning the 2000 Guineas
Frankie Dettori celebrates on Chaldean after winning the 2000 Guineas (David Davies for The Jockey Club/PA)

Chaldean is not the only Classic winner in the line-up as the red-hot contest also features Paddington, who claimed the Irish equivalent in good style at the Curragh.

The Siyouni colt will bid to give trainer Aidan O’Brien a record-extending ninth win in the one-mile Group One and said: “We’ve been happy with him since the Curragh and everything has gone well. He has progressed with every run.

“He won on good ground at the Curragh, we weren’t sure about the ground before the last day but he seemed to be very happy on it.”

John Gosden has won this three times in the last 10 years and alongside his son Thady is responsible for one of the most exciting prospects in the race, Mostabshir, who bounced back from a below-par performance in the Craven to show his class at York when bolting up by five lengths from a subsequent winner.

Mostabshir winning in style at York
Mostabshir winning in style at York (Mike Egerton/PA)

“It’s a fascinating clash with the two Guineas winners,” said Angus Gold, racing manager for owners Shadwell.

“Our horse is very progressive but he’s going to need to be. So it will be interesting to see how he gets on.

“He’s worked very nicely (since York). He’s a very happy horse who enjoys life and enjoys his work and he looks in good shape. Hopefully whatever he is capable of, he will give his best wherever that fits in.”

Another horse on an upward curve and looking to make his mark at the highest level is the unbeaten Cicero’s Gift, who arrives on the back of an impressive display at Goodwood, and is one of two for Charlie Hills in this British Champions Series race alongside 2000 Guineas fourth Galeron.

“We did toy with the idea of running Cicero’s Gift in the Guineas as well (as Galeron), but wanted to keep a low profile with this race in mind,” said Hills.

“He took a bit of time to come to hand last year and is going to get better with age and experience – he might get further in time as well.

“He’s a good-looking chap, improving with each race but he is going into a Group One which will be a different experience.”

Isaac Shelby took advantage of Chaldean’s misfortune to scoop the Greenham back in April and went close to getting on the Classic honours board when denied by the barest of margins in the Poule d’Essai des Poulains.

Brian Meehan’s son of Night Of Thunder, who claimed the Superlative Stakes on home soil last season, brings added spice to a deep contest with his handler confident he has a top-class miler on his hands.

“I really think he has a huge future and I really think it is at a mile, even though we gave him the sprint entries,” said the Manton-based trainer.

“He is much more relaxed in his work since Paris and you can see him maturing. He’s an exciting horse to have but there is nowhere to hide at this level.”

Paul and Oliver Cole’s Royal Scotsman finished third at Newmarket in the Guineas but has a point to prove following a disappointing effort at the Curragh, while Charyn (Roger Varian) and Indestructible (Karl Burke) complete the crack group of nine heading to post.



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Balding staying cool under pressure, as big week looms large

There is no disputing a huge week awaits Andrew Balding at Royal Ascot. But equally it is very much a feeling of “good pressure…the pressure you want” for the Kingsclere trainer, as he prepares to send out a team captained by Classic winner Chaldean.

Balding arrives in Berkshire with a string in fine form, boasting a near 20 per cent strike-rate in the last two weeks, and with leading chances in two of the real showpiece events of the meeting.

The 2000 Guineas hero Chaldean will head his formidable team, as he takes on Irish 2,000 Guineas winner Paddington and unbeaten Cicero’s Gift in a mouthwatering St James’s Palace Stakes on Tuesday.

“Obviously, we were thrilled with his Guineas win. That was his main objective for the early part of the season and this will be his second target. This, we always hoped, would be the plan,” said Balding.

“He had a little break after Newmarket. He has freshened up well and his work has been as solid as ever and we’re looking forward to it.

“There’s pressure, obviously, he is wearing the crown at the moment and that gives you added pressure.”

Balding will run Berkshire Shadow in the curtain-raising Queen Anne Stakes, the first of three Group One races on the opening afternoon.

Beaten just under two lengths in a bunched finish in the St James’s Palace last year, he opened his four-year-old campaign with a Listed win at Wolverhampton and another success in the valuable All-Weather Mile Championship at Newcastle.

Bookmakers appear to be overlooking the Dark Angel gelding, making him a general 33-1 chance.

“He ran well when finishing third in the Lockinge next time,” said Balding, as he ran through his team sitting on a bench opposite the weighing room at Newbury, where he waited to saddle a three-year-old. “We think he’d have an each-way chance again.

Berkshire Shadow is already a Royal Ascot winner
Berkshire Shadow is already a Royal Ascot winner (Steven Paston/PA)

“It is a tough division, but he is a high-class horse, who won a Coventry a couple of years ago.”

Dante Stakes winner The Foxes, who subsequently failed to see out the Derby trip, will not be among the yard’s runners, although Oaks eighth Sea Of Roses will take her place in the Ribblesdale.

Kempton’s Magnolia Stakes winner Foxes Tales and Notre Belle Bete, who has placed three times this year and landed over £100,000 when scoring in the All-Weather Easter Classic at Newcastle, are Balding’s contenders in the Wolferton Stakes.

“He (Foxes Tales) has a (3lb) penalty. He is in the Wolferton.” said Balding. “We have Notre Belle Bete in that too. He’s had a great season.

“We run some two-year-olds, but we don’t quite know what to expect there,” admitted Balding, before citing two horses who may fly under the radar in Imperial Fighter and Sandrine.

Sandrine could be overlooked, according to her trainer
Sandrine could be overlooked, according to her trainer (Adam Davy/PA)

The former was beaten two and a half lengths by Native Trail in the Irish 2,000 Guineas last year, but has not hit the same heights subsequently.

Fifth to Regal Reality in the Diomed at Epsom on his last start, Balding feels he has started to come to hand again.

“Imperial Fighter will go in the Royal Hunt Cup,” he added. “He was third in the Irish Guineas last year but has just taken his time to find a bit of form this year, but I’m happy with him now. I think he’d have an each-way chance.”

Sandrine, owned by Kirsten Rausing, is a dual Group Two winner who landed the Lennox Stakes at Goodwood last July.

She won the six-furlong Albany on heavy ground two years ago and is equally effective on a quicker surface.

Andrew Balding has plenty of big guns to fire this week
Andrew Balding has plenty of big guns to fire this week (Simon Marper/PA)

Having run over seven furlongs and a mile last season, she dropped back to six furlongs at Salisbury last month and was beaten a length and a half. She is a 16-1 chance for the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes on Saturday, yet her trainer remains hopeful.

Balding said: “Sandrine could be overlooked in the Jubilee, because she is high class.

“The return to sprinting will suit her. She was a bit disappointing at Salisbury, but I think there were legitimate excuses for that.

“She seems in great nick at home and she goes there, as long as the ground is not too quick, with what we think is a great each-way chance.”

By then, he will know whether it has been a successful Royal meeting or not, particularly since he has another plum chance with Coltrane, who is a general 11-4 chance for the feature on Ladies Day – the Gold Cup.

Coltrane holds a favourite's chance in the week's feature
Coltrane holds a favourite’s chance in the week’s feature (David Davies/PA)

With Aidan O’Brien’s crack stayer Kyprios unable to defend his crown through injury, Balding feels Mick and Janice Mariscotti’s six-year-old – who won the Ascot Stakes, Esher Stakes and Doncaster Gold Cup last season – has every chance of backing up his recent Sagaro success as he steps back up to two and a half miles.

“It looks an open Gold Cup,” Balding said. “The good thing about Coltrane is we know he stays and we know he loves the track. That has go to be a massive plus.

“He seems in great heart and I couldn’t be more thrilled with his Sarago win. I thought that was his best performance ever.”

Acknowledging what is to come, he said: “Of course there’s pressure. But it is a good pressure. This is the pressure you want.

“You are always happy if you get just one winner at the meeting, so fingers crossed.”



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Cicero’s Gift makes St James’s Palace leap for Hills

Cicero’s Gift will step into the unknown as he lines up in the St James’s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot next Tuesday.

Though unbeaten in three starts, trainer Charlie Hills is keen to see how the inexperienced Muhaarar colt fares against the likes of 2000 Guineas winner Chaldean and Paddington, who won the Irish version.

Cicero’s Gift has made rapid strides this spring and is a general 3-1 third favourite for the Group One mile contest, run on the round course.

A unfancied 22-1 chance on his debut in a Newbury novices’ race in October, he ran on well to score with ease and returned in March to take a restricted novice over an extended mile on the all-weather at Wolverhampton.

It was his five-and-a-half-length win in a conditions race at Goodwood last time that propelled him into the reckoning for a mouthwatering clash with a pair of Classic winners, however.

Hills said: “He did it really well at Goodwood last time.

“I was delighted with it. He has improved with every run he’s had.

“Mentally, he has taken a bit of a while to come to himself. Last year we were nice and patient with him. Physically he has strengthened up. His is nice-looking horse, similar to his dad, probably a little bit bigger version.

“It is hard to know where we stack up against the others, as we have come through a different route, but hopefully he will run well.”

Galeron was a little unlucky in the Irish 2000 Guineas
Galeron was a little unlucky in the Irish 2000 Guineas (Brian Lawless/PA)

The Faringdon Place handler is no stranger to recent success at the meeting. Dark Shift (2022) and Afaak (2019) landed the Royal Hunt Cup, while Battaash struck in the King’s Stand (2020).

“We might have quite a big Royal Ascot team – about 20-odd this time,” said Hills. “We are still finalising plans, but we have a nice team.”

Galeron, who was fourth in the 2000 Guineas, did not get the cleanest of runs behind Paddington at the Curragh. He also holds an entry in the St James’s Palace, but could go elsewhere.

Hills added: “Galeron has done very well and they are two nice horses. Cicero’s Gift is less exposed.

“I’m not sure what race Galeron will go for – he’s in the Hampton Court as well. He wasn’t beaten far at the Curragh and was a little bit unlucky not to be closer, as he didn’t get the room when he needed it, and we got a little bit too far back in the race.”

Orazio is the general 8-1 market leader for the Wokingham Handicap. He has won three of five starts on the turf, including the last two, with a clear-cut victory over the same six-furlong course last month filling Hills with every confidence he can complete a hat-trick.

“I’m looking forward to Orazio running,” Hills added. “He is in the Wokingham and he would have a good chance, I would have thought. I think there is a little bit of rain in the forecast, and any rain wouldn’t go amiss for him.

“It was nice to get a bit of course-and-distance form last time. He had a bit of a problem last year, so he had a year off. He is a lightly-raced horse and he is unexposed, too.

“It is always hard to win at the meeting. Just one winner would be nice and if I had to pick one, I think Orazio would have a good chance.”

Tanmawwy could join his stablemate in the same race, despite having been a well-held favourite at Newmarket last month.

Charlie Hills will take a strong team to the Royal meeting
Charlie Hills will take a strong team to the Royal meeting (Mike Egerton/PA)

“Tanmawwy would like a little bit of cut in the ground as well. He ran in the Buckingham Palace last year and seven furlongs was a bit too far,” said the trainer.

Khaadem similarly holds a Wokingham entry. The consistent seven-year-old won the Group Two King George Stakes at Goodwood last July before finishing fourth in the Nunthorpe at York.

Touched off under hold-up tactics on his return to action at Salisbury, Hills would like quicker ground for him.

He said: “I was delighted with his run last time at Salisbury. We were just trying to run him a bit differently and he hit the line really well.

Consistent Khaadem holds multiple entries as Hills keeps a weather watch
Consistent Khaadem holds multiple entries as Hills keeps a weather watch (Steven Paston/PA)

“We have a couple of other entries in the King’s Stand and the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee, so we will just keep a weather watch.”

He added: “We also have a couple in the Britannia. Racingbreaks Ryder has won his last four starts and he might have a squeak. He won at Ascot last time over seven furlongs.

“Bodorgan, if he gets in, will have a chance in that as well. We have a couple of two-year-olds, but they have to step up from their last run, but we have a nice team and as always, we’re really looking forward to the meeting.”



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Isaac Shelby on course for red-hot St James’s Palace

Brian Meehan’s French 2,000 Guineas runner-up Isaac Shelby is on course for the St James’s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot on June 20.

Winner of the Group Two Superlative Stakes at Newmarket last July, the Night Of Thunder colt began his three-year-old campaign with a three-length success in the Greenham at Newbury, before being short-headed by Marhaba Ya Sanafi in France.

The St James’s Palace is shaping up into one of the races of the meeting with English and Irish Guineas winners Chaldean and Paddington as well as Charlie Hills’ unbeaten Cicero’s Gift lying in wait.

Though Isaac Shelby initially held an entry in the 10-furlong Coral-Eclipse at Sandown, the Manton handler is keen to keep him at a mile for now.

Meehan said: “He is heading to Ascot and he’s in great form. We have been very happy with him. He goes to the St James’s Palace, but he won’t go to the Eclipse.

“We’ll see how he comes out of Ascot before making any plans. He is in everything, but we’ll play it by ear.

“He’s in good form, we couldn’t be happier with him really.”



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Indestructible will bid to get back on track at Royal Ascot

Karl Burke’s Craven winner Indestructible will aim to leave a disappointing showing in the 2000 Guineas behind him when he heads to Royal Ascot for the St James’s Palace Stakes.

The Kodiac colt was an ultra-consistent performer when trained by Michael O’Callaghan as a juvenile, chasing home Chaldean in both the Acomb and the Champagne Stakes last term, and threw his hat in the ring for the opening Classic of the summer when striking first time out for Burke in the Craven.

However, testing ground at Newmarket on 2000 Guineas day blunted any chance he had of figuring as old rival Chaldean took home the spoils and Indestructible’s connections are now hoping for a sounder surface when they lock horns for a fourth time at the Royal meeting.

“He’s come out of the Guineas very well,” said Tom Pennington, racing and operations manager for owners Amo Racing.

“The ground probably didn’t play to his strengths at Newmarket. We’ve always said he is not a soft ground horse and it was decent ground when he won the Craven.

“He’s in decent form and is working well, Karl is happy with him, and it is all systems go for the St James’s Palace at Royal Ascot.

Indestructible (purple, centre) will take on Chaldean (right) once again at Royal Ascot
Indestructible (purple, centre) will take on Chaldean (right) once again at Royal Ascot (Tim Goode/PA)

“Quick ground round a bend should see him at his best, he’s a nice horse and you don’t do what he did in the Craven without being a nice horse. I think getting on better ground will see him replicate what he did at Newmarket in the Craven.

“You can’t knock his form and his only disappointing run before the Guineas was when he was second to Chaldean at Doncaster last season. The ground was hock deep that day as well and he’s just not as effective on that sort of ground. He’s much better on a sound surface.”



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Modesty set for low-key return at Newmarket

Exciting prospect Modesty looks set to miss the Betfred Derby after connections delayed his return to action following a setback.

Owned in partnership by Aquis Farm and Manton Park, the Dubawi colt showed plenty of dash when taking a mile maiden on good to soft ground at York in October.

A Dante and Derby entry, co-trainers Martyn and Freddie Meade have decided Modesty – who is a general 50-1 shot for the Derby – will not head to York or Epsom. Instead, he will make a belated three-year-old debut at Newmarket on Friday week.

Freddie (left) and Martyn Meade (right) have ruled out a Derby bid
Freddie (left) and Martyn Meade (right) have ruled out a Derby bid (Mike Egerton/PA)

“It has been frustrating. He has just been caught up in a series of pollen allergens we have been having recently,” said Freddie Meade.

“We have been really pleased with the way he has developed, though. He was still really green when he won at York, so the plan with him is to go to a novice at Newmarket, over a mile on May 19.”

Out of Group Three-winning mare I Am Beautiful, whose sire was multiple Group One winner Rip Van Winkle, Modesty is bred to be top-class.

And after scoring by three lengths on his debut, Meade feels the speed he showed on the Knavesmire means he will be better suited to trips short of a mile and a half, this season at least.

“We are looking at him as a mile or a mile-and-a-quarter horse this year, and so we will start him in that novice and see whether there is anything at Ascot that would suit him and go from there, really,” he said.

“I think we have ruled out the Derby. I think he’s got quite a lot of speed and I think we’d rush him to get to the Derby.

“The speed he showed at York, hopefully, with that pedigree, if he can be a good miler, then hopefully he’d make a good stallion.”

The Manton handlers have given him an entry in the St James’s Palace Stakes over a mile at Royal Ascot on June 20.

Meade added: “We’ve put him in that and those are the sort of races we’ll be looking at for him.

“He won on good to soft and he’s a very sound horse, and will seemingly handle anything. He’s one we are really excited about.”



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Clock Watcher: Lessons from Harrovian

After an extended pandemic break, Clock Watcher is back! This semi-regular feature aims to highlight interesting performances from a sectional timing perspective. Before we dive into those noteworthy efforts, a quick recap to set the scene.

Sectional Recap

Sectional timing aims to tell us more about how a race was run by splitting it up into segments, or sections. Moreover, we can understand more about an individual horse's performances from these splits as well; and, by comparing with history - what we call 'par' - we can frame races and runs in a much broader historical context.

The idea is to note those horses who may have been inconvenienced either by the run of the race or how they themselves ran within it, and to 'mark up' such efforts for consideration in future. Such mark ups are one more piece of the puzzle: often they'll add little or nothing, but occasionally they are the significant differentiator. Our job as form detectives is to assimilate information from which to make value judgements. Sectional information is another piece of evidence to consider in the general form evaluation case, if you feel so inclined.

Thus, on the basis of a number of previous races over a given course and distance, we can have a reasonable idea of what the optimal energy expenditure might be. A marathon runner will look to run every one of the 26 and a bit miles in a very similar time because that is the way she uses her energy most efficiently and therefore runs her best time.

Because of the configuration of racecourses and races - standing start, bends, undulations, obstacles in jumps races - the shape of a par line will never be flat; instead it will have a curve that intrinsically accommodates all appropriate considerations. It will, in other words, enable us to gauge what happened in any given race against the body of directly relevant 'case law' that preceded it.

There is oodles more insight on how geegeez.co.uk publishes these data in our user guide, here.

What are we looking for?

What we are looking for might vary from race to race, situation to situation. But, more helpfully, two obvious things to spot are fast finishers and solid composite numbers.

Fast finishers are those runners whose closing splits, when compared to their overall time in percentage terms, were quicker. This is often called a finishing speed percentage (or FS%), and a high relative FS% implies a horse finished with more in the tank, more to give. That suggests he might go better next time.

Composite ratings are an attempt to consider FS% alongside the actual speed of a race. After all, if I walk the first 26 miles of a marathon over most of a day, my ability to run the last 385 yards will be far superior to even the best athlete who has run the previous 26 miles at world record pace. My finishing speed percentage will be massive but my overall time - and therefore any attempt at combining final time and finishing speed - will betray how easily I took things earlier on.

That's an outlandishly exaggerated example to emphasise the point that horse races are habitually run steadily and won by the runner with the best combination of track position and finishing speed. Furthermore, not only can we know through sectionals which horse(s) has/have the best finishing kick but we can also overlay that knowledge onto how we perceive today's race will set up.

A horse with a lightning kick may be severely compromised by a strong early gallop but could be a fantastic bet in a paceless heat.

Sectional Examples

Examples make everything more comprehensible, so let's look at a few events since racing returned post-lockdown.

Palace Pier / Pinatubo - St James's Palace Stakes

I'll begin with a fairly banal one - insofar as punting utility goes - but one that very well illustrates the two elements we seek, the St James's Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot.

This was the race in which Palace Pier announced himself on the big stage, charging past last year's champion juvenile, Pinatubo, and the controlling race leader, Wichita.

The three-part OMC (Opening, Midrace, Closing) sectionals image below shows the extent to which they quickened in the final quarter mile (the orange/red rectangles) with the upgrade column on the right hand side attempting to quantify how much more each might have been able to give.

The colour bar above the result table contains the 'race' sectionals: those of the race leader at the end of each section (in this case, at the six-furlong pole, the two-furlong pole, and the finish line). The bars inline are for each individual runner.

 

This slightly more detailed five-part 'Call Points' view illustrates things further:

 

Here we can see that Palace Pier covered the final two furlongs in splits of 11.68 seconds and 11.71 seconds. That was partly a function of the (relatively) steady first three-quarters of the race but mainly it relates to his talent.

Pinatubo, for his part, has looked to me a slightly doubtful stayer at a mile, particularly in the context of his brilliant two-year-old form. He was quickest from four to one but couldn't quite see it out. A subsequent win in a seven-furlong Group 1 in France last time supports the theory, though not beyond reasonable doubt. The Breeders' Cup Mile, a race contested around a tight oval track where seven-furlong speed is ideal (think Expert Eye), looks a perfect target.

Palace Pier's Topspeed figure for this effort was 108 and relates to how quickly he got from the start to the finish. Alpine Star, the filly who won the Coronation Stakes over the same course and distance 35 minutes earlier, ran a far more even tempo and recorded a slightly faster overall time to be awarded a 110 Topspeed figure.

But Palace Pier's composite rating - a combination of Topspeed and our Upgrade of 23 - brings him to 131. Alpine Star's effort received no upgrade and therefore remains on 110.

Here's the rub: in a steadily-run race, a feature of both his runs this year, all evidence suggests Palace Pier would readily outpoint Alpine Star. But if it was likely to be more truly-run I'd be less bullish at the likely odds.

One of the main problems, as can be seen below, is that there remains - more than a year after RMG (the company in charge of Racing TV's racecourses' broadcast rights) first published data for a meeting at York - no publicly available sectional output for the roughly two-thirds of British tracks that they cover. I wish it wasn't this way, and I yearn for good news on this front soon.

A Spot of Revision for Harrovian

Another of the John Gosden phalanx of top-class equines is Harrovian, who caught the eye when winning in taking fashion at Doncaster over a mile and a quarter on 26th June. He, and second placed Archie Perkins, were almost five lengths clear of the third that day, a gap established exclusively in the final quarter mile.

I've included the 'by furlong' sectional percentage chart this time: this view helps to understand how a runner's energy was expended and can be compared to the par line - which is grey in this case due to the limited confidence afforded by only 73 races in the course and distance sample. Beneath the chart I've also included the OMC splits for Harrovian and Archie Perkins.

 

Note on the chart how the red and green lines, representing the selected runners, run close to the dark grey par line until half way (five out, 6-5 on the chart); and how they then extend away in the second half of the race. This tells us that the highlighted runners ran close to optimally (though a little slower in the first two furlongs (S-9, 9-8)) in the early stages before finishing well.

One of the reasons I chose this example is because both horses have again run in the same race since, Saturday's John Smith's Cup. Although there are no official sectionals for that race, they looked to go quite fast early (as might be expected for a 22-runner heritage handicap), which may not have suited either Archie or Harrovian.

Here is the Gosden runner's full form profile:

 

Compare that with his winning form profile, and with sectional data switched on (the box top left):

 

All three of his career wins have come at ten furlongs, on good to firm ground, and in small fields. Of the two of that trio for which we have sectional insight, both featured fast finishing fractions off even to slow earlier meters. I'll be very interested in Harrovian when he gets this kind of setup again.

 

Yarmouth Upgrades

There have been a few races of interest run at Yarmouth since the resumption. Its proximity to Newmarket is a factor in enticing very good horses, and here are two I think worthy of note.

The first of the pair was a juvenile on debut called Yazaman, who achieved the biggest geegeez upgrade figure of any horse since racing resumed (at the tracks covered by our data supplier, Total Performance Data). Ostensibly not much of a race, Yazaman was sent off 10/11 favourite in a field of four.

They went pedestrian fractions in the early part of the five furlong contest but then engaged turbo, as best as unraced juveniles can.

William Haggas's winner completed the last quarter mile in less than 21 seconds, which is really very fast indeed, especially for a juvenile debutant.

To some degree this is now ancient history, as Yazaman has run twice subsequently: first he was a gallant second in the Windsor Castle Stakes at Royal Ascot. Sent off 20/1 that day, the cat was subsequently out of the bag when he again ran up, at 6/1 this time, to Tactical in the Group 2 July Stakes at  Newmarket's big summer meeting.

He's rapid and a drop back to five should see him just about win in minor Pattern company.

On 4th July, another two-year-old, this time Ventura Tormenta trained by Richard Hannon, rocked up having been pitched in to none other than the Group 2 Norfolk Stakes on his debut. He ran a huge race there to be sixth, and had plenty in reserve when turning away Sidi Mansour and four others over six this day. As can be seen from the running lines below, Ventura controlled things throughout: an even opening quarter, a steady to slow middle quarter, and then a burst of acceleration and 'eat my dust'.

He didn't seem to get home on the July course over seven furlongs in Newmarket's Superlative Stakes but has since confirmed his class by winning the 6f Group 2 Prix Robert Papin last weekend. English-trained horses finished first and second there, French horses comprising the rest of the field, to affirm my (and many others', in point of fact) contention that French racing has lagging behind a little for a season and a half or so.

Second to Ventura Tormenta at Yarmouth, Sidi Mansour has run since and been beaten in a bigger field at Windsor. But, having covered the final half mile at the Norfolk track in the same time (46.70 seconds) as Sunday's Group 2 winner, he may go one better in a small field where he can put his pace to good use.

Looking Forward

There may be a case to answer from the after-time police regarding the above, even if a number of those highlighted have since been beaten and are suggested for another day. With no such subsequent form here is one more, at a slightly lower level, for the future.

The Yarmouth fillies' novice event won by Almareekh might work out all right: the winner has an entry at Doncaster on Saturday and the third, Viola, may run in a handicap at Redcar next Monday. But it is the fourth placed filly, Ice Sprite, who has made my tracker.

This was her second career start, and first of the season, and the William Haggas-trained daughter of Zoffany was a long way (15 lengths to be precise) behind the leader with half a mile to go. More materially, she was between three and six lengths behind the three fillies that eventually beat her at that same point.

 

As can be seen from the red bars in her result row, Ice Sprite made a big move between the four and the two, and ran the final quarter (24.01 seconds) quicker than all bar the winner (23.95 seconds). Eased off in the last fifty yards, each way backers may have felt miffed that she was beaten a diminishing neck for third; but she looks attractively rated off just 70 for a potential handicap tilt next time. With only two starts to her name, there are all sorts of reasons to believe she can do better in upcoming spins. She is entered in the 3.20 at Newmarket on Friday.



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