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Stat of the Day, 21st February 2018

Tuesday's Result :

4.40 Wetherby : Lunar Flow @ 4/1 BOG 5th at 9/4 Led to 2nd, led again before 5th, headed 5th, weakened after 5 out...

Next up is Wednesday's...

5.10 Ludlow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

War Creation @ 9/4 BOG

A Class 4, 2m5.5f handicap hurdle on soft ground worth £5,263 to the winner and a shorter priced pick than I'm usually comfortable with...

Why?

Because it's pretty poor stuff out there and most of those that I like from stats angle are even shorter!

But the reasons why this one ticked some boxes begin with the excellent start she has made to her racing career, making the fame in four of six starts, picking up three wins along the way. Amongst those races so far, she is...

  • 3 from 4 in fields of 4-9 runners
  • 2 from 3 going right handed
  • 1 from 1 here at Ludlow
  • 1 from 1 on soft ground
  • 1 from 1 under today's jockey Ned Curtis

In fact, Ned was on board last time out, when she won at Haydock by six lengths 53 days ago over 2m3f on heavy ground at this grade, so stamina hopefully won't be her undoing.

That LTO win also qualifies her for one of my LTO winner micro-systems, whose rules/criteria seem more complicated in print than they are in practice, but here goes...

Class 2 to 5 handicap hurdle races over 3 miles or shorter / horses aged 5 to 11 yrs old / won a hcp hurdle LTO by 4 lengths or more and are now running under the following conditions : same class or up one grade from LTO / off a mark (OR) equal or up to 14lbs higher than LTO and at a trip ranging from 4.5f shorter to 3.5f longer than LTO.

Since the start of 2013, we've had 987 qualifiers fitting the above criteria, so it's a decent sample size that has yielded 303 winners (30.7% SR) for profits of 341.7pts at an ROI of 34.6% and include of relevance today...

  • same class as LTO : 194/565 (34.3%) for 194.72pts (+34.5%)
  • won by 5 to 10 lengths LTO : 139/451 (30.8%) for 193.17pts (+42.8%)
  • at Class 4 : 138/439 (31.4%) for 118.75pts (+27.1%)
  • 6 yr olds are 81/277 (29.2%) for 55.5pts (+20.1%)
  • on Soft ground : 73/246 (29.7%) for 74.76pts (+30.4%)
  • in Feb/March : 60/207 (29%) for 93.45pts (+45.1%)
  • up in trip by 1.5f to 3.5f : 59/187 (31.6%) for 90pts (+48.1%)
  • and here at Ludlow : 12/28 (42.9%) for 10.77pts (+38.5%)

I think most people are aware of trainer Nicky Henderson's decent record here at Ludlow in the last few years (his hurdlers are 21 from 64 here since 2013), so I'm not going to bore you with those details, but I'm going to end with a quick note (or two!) about War Creation's father, Scorpion, whose offspring are 13 from 75 (17.3% SR) for 134.75pts (+179.7% ROI) in handicap jumps races on soft ground or worse since the start of 2017.

Those figures don't actually include Tuesday's results where one of his three progeny running went and won at 10/1 (Hoo Bally Diva at Taunton), but do contain the following...

  • over trips of 2m to 2m5.5f : 12/51 (23.5%) for 154.91pts (+303.8%)
  • on soft ground : 7/50 (14%) for 121.15pts (+242.3%)
  • over hurdles : 6/47 (12.8%) for 114.24pts (+243.1%)

AND...in soft ground handicap hurdles over 2m to 2m5.5f : 4/21 (19.1% SR) for 128.18pts (+610.4% ROI)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on War Creation @ 9/4 BOG which was available from Bet365, SkyBet and a couple of minor payers at 5.45pm onTuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.10 Ludlow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 20th February 2018

Monday's Result :

7.50 Kempton : Lacan @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 11/4 Towards rear, headway over 1f out, ridden inside final furlong, kept on to chase winner towards finish, beaten by half a length...

And we'll crack on with Tuesday's...

4.40 Wetherby :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Lunar Flow @ 4/1 BOG

A Class 4, 3m0.5f handicap chase on heavy ground worth £4,809 to the winner...

Why?

Two wins and two places from his last seven over fences, all in handicap company, he has a win and a place from two heavy ground runs and is two from two over a 3m trip. He's been here to Wetherby just the once before, but did finish as a runner-up over a longer 3m1.5f.

His trainer Jamie Snowden is having a decent winter with 14 winners from 51 (27.5% SR) generating profits of 10.26pts (+20.1% ROI) over the last three months with a Class 4 record of 9/31 (29%) for 10.78pts (+34.8%). And of Jamie's runners over that period, today's jockey Gavin Sheehan has ridden 13 winners from 39 (33.3%) for 17.21pts (+44.1%).

And not only has Gavin ridden more than his fair share of winners for Jamie of late, he's got a decent record here at Wetherby too with a 20.3% strike rate acquired via 13 wins from 64.

It could be very tough going out there too, but Jamie Snowden's heavy ground handicappers are 6/42 (14.3% SR) for 13.2pts (+31.5% ROI) since 2013, including...

  • at 2m3.5f to 3m1.5f (what I'd call mid-distance) : 6/33 (18.2%) for 22.2pts (+67.4%)
  • Class 4 : 5/27 (18.5%) for 25.6pts (+94.9%)
  • Chasers : 4/20 (20%) for 29.27ts (+146.4%)

AND...Class 4 Chasers over 2m3.5f to 3m1.5f  = 4/11 (36.4% SR) for 38.27pts (+347.9% ROI)

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Lunar Flow @ 4/1 BOG which was available from half a dozen firms at 6.10pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.40 Wetherby

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day: The 2017 Review

We recently (well, just over 7 weeks ago : I actually forgot to do this piece back then!) came to the end of the sixth full calendar year for Stat of the Day, which was Geegeez' first real venture into daily tipping, which was launched to our unsuspecting readers more as a daily pointer rather than an actual tip back in November 2011.

We know that we acquire lots of new subscribers every year thanks to previous years' successes from this service and also due to more savvy punters looking for better data, information and racecards than they'll find anywhere else on the 'net, so a brief overview of SotD is as follows...

Whilst form and other variable parameters come in to play when normally making a bet, SotD's first port of call is find runners who fit a stat (or usually a number of stats) suggesting they will go well.

We aim to have the selection online in the early evening before racing (around 6-7 pm) where possible but occasionally due to home-life, travel plans and/or holidays, it can be later, but there's a selection every day except Sundays and we don't take Bank Holidays, Easter nor Christmas off!

We try to find runners priced around the 3/1 to 6/1 mark at BOG prices and look for some value in the odds achieved, but sometimes we have to stray outside those parameters a little. A large proportion of our selections run at much shorter odds than we advise and constantly beating SP is a key in making long-term profits. Basically, our profit figures aren't massaged by some freakishly long priced winners, nor is our strike rate bolstered by a string of odds-on jollies.

What we do have is a consistent approach that aims to highlight one value selection per day and although this "one-a-day" stats-based approach to bet selection suffers all the obligatory peaks and troughs associated with betting on horses, we did manage to make a decent profit yet again in 2017.

Without blowing the collective trumpets of myself, Steve and of course, Matt, we're very proud of the figures accrued to date and we can safely say there aren't many (if any!) better services around. In fact, most paid-for services would kill for our figures.

Where possible, we'd like SotD to cover your subscriptions to Gold, making the rest of the site free to use as you see fit and in 2017, a level stake of £2.65 was all that was needed to cover a £297 per year annual subscription. This was achieved via 10 profitable months from 12 (we lost 2.75pts in July and 4.37pts in August)

Your first 30 days for just £1

A full month-by-month analysis of SotD's results can, of course, always be found at
http://www.geegeez.co.uk/stat-of-the-day-month-by-month/ , but the overall picture for 2017 was as follows:

Number of bets/selections/pts wagered: 294 (exactly the same as 2016!)
Winning Bets: 83 (up from 70 in 2016)
Strike Rate: 28.23% (2016 = 23.81%)
Average payout from winning bet : 3.89/1 (2016 = 3.86/1)

Yearly Profit: 112.05pts (2016 = 46.24pts)
Profit on Stakes Invested: 38.11% (2016 was 15.73%)

These are pretty impressive figures considering we give a selection every day rain or shine, if we say so ourselves and we'll be doing our level best to maintain our success in 2018, although we're very well aware it'll be a tough ask!

That said, the first seven weeks of the year have gone well and with profit already guaranteed for February, we'll now have made money in 18 of the last 20 months. The challenge now, of course, is to maintain that consistency.

Thanks for sticking with Geegeez and SotD,
Chris, Steve, Matt and the whole Geegeez team.

***Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take your £1/30-day trial now?

Click here for more details.

Stat of the Day, 19th February 2018

Saturday's Result :

2.20 Lingfield : Brother Tiger @ 4/1 BOG (= 3.4/1 after 15p R4) WON at 7/4 Made all, driven over 1f out, ridden and ran on well inside final furlong to win by a length and three quarters...

We start the new week with Monday's...

7.50 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Lacan @ 3/1 BOG

A Class 4, 1m A/W handicap on polytrack worth £6,469 to the winner...

Why?

Your first 30 days for just £1

This 7 yr old gelding has finished 141 in hos last three outings, all over this course and distance and won 23 days ago under today's jockey, just as he did three starts ago (a different jockey rode the defeat).

So far on the A/W, Lacan is...

  • 4/15 over a mile, 3/9 at Kempton and 3/8 over course and distance
  • 2/2 with today's jockey, both over course and distance and he's 1/1 in Class 4 races worth over £6,000.

Trainer Brett Johnson isn't the most famous, nor does he have lots of runners, but of his nine runners over the past month, 5 have made the frame with three going on to win and backing all his runners since the start of 2017 would give you 11 winners from 88 (12.5% SR) and 53.82pts profit at an ROI of 61.2%, including...

  • in handicaps : 9/68 (13.2%) for 60.8pts (+89.5%)
  • on the A/W : 8/57 (14%) for 43.3pts (+76%), all on polytrack
  • males : 10/51 (19.6%) for 84.9pts (+166.4%)
  • 21-75 days since last run : 8/47 (17%) for 55.34pts (+117.8%)
  • 1m to 1m2f : 8/33 (24.2%) for 89.91pts (+272.5%)
  • at Kempton : 5/32 (15.6%) for 27.6pts (+86.2%)
  • ridden by Callum Shepherd : 5/27 (18.5%) for 33.6pts (+124.4%)
  • at Class 4 : 3/19 (15.8%) for 5.9pts (+31%)
  • and LTO winners are 2/8 (25%) for 14.24pts (+178.1%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Lacan @ 3/1 BOG which was available from Bet365, BetVictor, Betway & SkyBet at 6.10pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.50 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 19th February 2018

Saturday's Result :

2.20 Lingfield : Brother Tiger @ 4/1 BOG (= 3.4/1 after 15p R4) WON at 7/4 Made all, driven over 1f out, ridden and ran on well inside final furlong to win by a length and three quarters...

We start the new week with Monday's...

7.50 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Lacan @ 3/1 BOG

A Class 4, 1m A/W handicap on polytrack worth £6,469 to the winner...

Why?

This 7 yr old gelding has finished 141 in hos last three outings, all over this course and distance and won 23 days ago under today's jockey, just as he did three starts ago (a different jockey rode the defeat).

So far on the A/W, Lacan is...

  • 4/15 over a mile, 3/9 at Kempton and 3/8 over course and distance
  • 2/2 with today's jockey, both over course and distance and he's 1/1 in Class 4 races worth over £6,000.

Trainer Brett Johnson isn't the most famous, nor does he have lots of runners, but of his nine runners over the past month, 5 have made the frame with three going on to win and backing all his runners since the start of 2017 would give you 11 winners from 88 (12.5% SR) and 53.82pts profit at an ROI of 61.2%, including...

  • in handicaps : 9/68 (13.2%) for 60.8pts (+89.5%)
  • on the A/W : 8/57 (14%) for 43.3pts (+76%), all on polytrack
  • males : 10/51 (19.6%) for 84.9pts (+166.4%)
  • 21-75 days since last run : 8/47 (17%) for 55.34pts (+117.8%)
  • 1m to 1m2f : 8/33 (24.2%) for 89.91pts (+272.5%)
  • at Kempton : 5/32 (15.6%) for 27.6pts (+86.2%)
  • ridden by Callum Shepherd : 5/27 (18.5%) for 33.6pts (+124.4%)
  • at Class 4 : 3/19 (15.8%) for 5.9pts (+31%)
  • and LTO winners are 2/8 (25%) for 14.24pts (+178.1%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Lacan @ 3/1 BOG which was available from Bet365, BetVictor, Betway & SkyBet at 6.10pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.50 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

SotD Update, 12th to 17th February 2018

Another good week for SotD followers as we started with two winners and ended with a Saturday success.

Despite a 15p Rule 4 deduction on our third winner of the week, we still cleared 5.65pts profit from our six picks and with nine picks still to come this month, the worst we're going to walk away with is almost 7pts for February : a figure most of us would settle for each month!

That said : nine more picks = nine more opportunities and I'd be hoping for at least another couple of winners.

Selections & Results : 12/02/18 to 17/02/18 

12/02 : Straidnahanna @ 5/2 BOG WON at 9/4
13/02 : Star Ascending @ 9/4 BOG WON at 11/4
14/02 : Grand Introduction @ 5/2 BOG PU at 7/4
15/02 : Crosspark @ 11/4 BOG 4th at 10/11
16/02 : Oregon Gift @ 5/1 BOG 3rd at 5/1
17/02 : Brother Tiger @ 4/1 BOG (= 3.4/1 after 15p R4) WON at 7/4 

12/02/18 to 17/02/18 :
3 winning bets from 6 = 50.00% SR
P/L: +5.65pts

February 2018 :
7 winners from 15 = 46.66% SR
P/L: +15.90pts
ROI = +106.00%

Overall:
536 winners from 1923 = 27.87% S.R
P/L: +510.51pts
ROI: +26.55%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.

Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are now available here.

Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take your £1, 30-day trial right now?

Click here for more details.

Stat of the Day, 17th February 2018

Friday's Result :

2.00 Lingfield : Oregon Gift @ 5/1 BOG 3rd at 5/1 Led, ridden over 1f out, headed inside final furlong, no extra late on...

Next up is Saturday's...

2.20 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Brother Tiger @ 4/1 BOG

A Class 4, 5f A/W handicap on polytrack worth £5,531 to the winner...

Why?

One of just two course and distance winners in the race, this 9 yr old gelding has won 6 of 29 (20.7% SR) A/W contests to date, including...

  • 5/22 at 5f, 5/21 in fields of 8-11 and 4/13 off a mark of 61-80
  • 5/12 here at Lingfield and 4/10 in Class 4 races worth less than £6,000
  • 4/8 over C&D, 4/8 at odds of 4/1 and shorter and 2/5 in February

His trainer David Griffiths has saddled up 12 winners from 78 (15.4% SR) in A/W handicaps here at Lingfield since the start of 2012, from which...

  • Class 4/5 runners are 10/37 927%) for 34.46pts (+93.1%)
  • over 5/6 furlongs : 8/31 (25.8%) for 30.15pts (+97.3%)
  • Class 4/5 runners over 5/6 furlongs are 8/18 (44.4%%) for 43.1pts (+239.7%)
  • and Class 4 runners at 5f : 5/9 (55.6%) for 25.7pts (+285.3%)

And since the start of 2015, David's runners racing again just 3 to 10 days after their last run are 23/118 (19.5% SR) for 28.6pts (+34.3% ROI), including...

  • handicappers : 22/109 (20.2%) for 33.6pts (+30.8%)
  • those unplaced LTO are 13/76 (17.1%) for 21.6pts (+28.4%)
  • those racing over 5f are 11/39 (28.2%) for 28.2pts (+72.4%)

AND...5f handicappers who were unplaced LTO 3 to 10 days earlier are 5/22 (22.7%) for 11.8pts (+53.7% ROI)

The final piece of the jigsaw comes from our very own industry-leading interactive race card, which tells me that in fields of 8-11 over 5f on the A/W here at Lingfield, it is most profitable to back runners who race prominently or lead. Our boy likes to be up with the pace and getting drawn in stall 1 shouldn't hurt his chances either.

...all of which points to...a 1pt win bet on Brother Tiger @ 4/1 BOG which was available from a half dozen firms at 6.20pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.20 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 16th February 2018

Thursday's Result :

2.45 Leicester : Crosspark @ 11/4 BOG 4th at 10/11 Jumped left at times, led until 2nd, prominent, every chance 4 out, weakened before mistake last...

Next up is Friday's...

2.00 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Oregon Gift @ 5/1 BOG

A Class 6, 2m A/W handicap chase on polytrack worth £3,105 to the winner...

Why?

A 6 yr old gelding who won last time out, 4 weeks ago on this track on his yard debut for Charlie Mann and ridden for the first time by Fran Berry who is back on board today. He now returns to attempt to take his Lingfield record to 3 from 3, whilst in the process he could improve the following stats relating to his new trainer...

1.  Since 2013, his handicappers who were his only representative at a track are 54/305 (17.7% SR) for 185.6pts (+60.9% ROI), including...

  • 11-30 days since last run : 38/189 (20.1%) for 170.64pts (+90.3%)
  • running less than 100 miles from home : 31/166 (18.7%) for 95.29pts (+57.4%)
  • LTO winners : 10/47 (21.3%) for 27.84pts (+59.2%)
  • on the A/W : 3/8 937.5%) for 43.69pts (+546.1%)

2.  Since 2012, Charlies LTO winners are 25/114 (21.9%) for 41.3pts (+36.2% ROI), with those last seen 16 to 120 days earlier winning 19 of 71 (26.8%) for 43.2pts (+60.8%)

3.  His record in A/W handicaps is currently 4/25 (16% SR) for 51.73pts (+235.1% ROI)

...and this pared down approach gives us...a 1pt win bet on Oregon Gift @ 5/1 BOG which was available from a half dozen firms at 5.45pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.00 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 15th February 2018

Wednesday's Result :

2.40 Towcester : Grand Introduction @ 5/2 BOG PU at 7/4 Prominent on outside, lost place before 5th, closed next, blundered and dropped to rear 7th, mistake next, blundered 12th, pulled up before 13th...

Next up is Thursday's...

2.45 Leicester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Crosspark @ 11/4 BOG

A Class 3, 2m4.5f handicap chase on soft ground worth £8,837 to the winner...

Why?

This 8 yr old gelding won this race last year off a mark (132) just 2lbs lower than today, but that was on heavy ground and today's going is expected to be a little easier underfoot. To date, he has 2 wins and 3 places from 7 on soft ground, 3 wins and a place from 5 in fields of 5 to 8 runners and 2 wins from 3 at this trip, so conditions look ideal for him.

His win in this race last year makes him 1 from 1 over course and distance and none of his rivals have won over track nor trip, never mind both!

His trainer Caroline Bailey is 21/97 (21.65% SR) for 30.98pts (+31.9% ROI) here at Leicester since 2009 and these include...

  • handicappers : 17/68 (25%) for 27.74pts (+40.8%)
  • chasers : 16/66 (24.2%) for 40.76pts (+61.8%)
  • at trips of 2m4.5f to 2m7.5f : 14/59 (23.7%) for 40.4pts (+68.5%)
  • at odds of 5/1 and shorter : 17/40 (42.5%) for 33.69pts (+84.2%)
  • and 2017/18  :6/13 (46.2%) for 12.2pts (+93.8%)

Caroline Bailey / 2009-18 / Leicester / handicap chasers / priced at 5-1 and shorter over 2m4.5f to 2m7.5f = 7/17 (41.2% SR) for 17.27pts (+101.6% ROI), with 2017/18 showing 2 winners from 3 966.6%) for 8.33pts (+277.6%)

This horse is also a son of the mighty Midnight Legend and longer-term readers of my stuff will know of my fondness of this sire, mainly because his offspring win races and generate profit! One of my more generalised Midnight Legend micro-systems is at play here today and goes as follows...

UK NH jumps / 1m7f to 3m1f / good ground or softer / Class 2 to 4 / September to March / 5 to 8 yr olds / ran in past 8 months, but has had at least 3 weeks rest.

That's not as complicated in practice as it is in print and since the start of 2013, it has thrown up 129 winners from 705 (18.3% SR) runners from 281.48pts (+39.9% ROI), with the following subsets of data relevant today...

  • handicaps : 92/480 (19.2%) for 222.85pts (+46.4%)
  • males : 72/398 (18.1%) for 160.42pts (+40.3%)
  • chasers : 43/245 (17.6%) for 71.55pts (+29.2%)
  • soft ground : 50/238 (21%) for 130.73pts (+54.9%)
  • Class 3 : 51/199 (25.6%) for 203.2pts (+102.1%)
  • OR of 123 to 137 : 34/131 (26%) for 108.59pts (+82.9%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Crosspark @ 11/4 BOG which was widely available at 12.10am on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.45 Leicester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 14th February 2018

Tuesday's Result :

2.20 Southwell : Star Ascending @ 9/4 BOG WON at 11/4 Held up in mid-division, took keen hold, headway to chase leaders over 4f out, led over 1f out, ridden clear inside final furlong, ran on well to win by 3.25 lengths...

We aim to keep the current run going with Wednesday's...

2.40 Towcester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Grand Introduction @ 5/2 BOG

A Class 4, 3m0.5f novice handicap chase on soft ground worth £5,588 to the winner...

Why?

This 8 yr old gelding was a winner here at Towcester on soft ground just six days ago, beating the field by six lengths at a trip just half a furlong further than today's contest.

His trainer, Fergal O'Brien is in fine form right now with 6 winners from 12 (50% SR) over the past fortnight producing level stakes profits of 8.34pts at an ROI of 69.5% with 4 winners from 6 (66.6% SR) for 9.84pts (+164% ROI) in the last 7 days with his chasers finishing 1P111 so far this month!

More long-term, his NH handicap record since the start of 2013 stands at 124 winners from 839 (14.8% SR) for 142pts at an ROI of 16.9%, including the following of relevance today...

  • males : 106/691 (15.3%) for 144.85pts (+21%)
  • chasers : 77/474 (16.2%) for 121.21pts (+25.6%)
  • on Soft : 26/169 (15.4%) for 28.72pts (+17%)
  • 8 yr olds : 28/161 (17.4%) for 64.75pts (+40.2%)
  • ridden by Alain Cawley : 10/91 (11%) for 60.23pts (+66.2%)
  • and here at Towcester : 6/35 (17.1%) for 10.11pts (+28.9%)

WITH...6-10 yr old male chasers on soft ground winning 18 of 87 (20.7% SR) for 47.16pts (+54.2% ROI)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Grand Introduction @ 5/2 BOG which was widely available at 5.40pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.40 Towcester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

And a quick heads up...I'm on airport duty tomorrow evening, collecting my daughter from her German exchange trip, so Thursday's pick will be very late like Tuesday's was, if not later!

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 13th February 2018

Monday's Result :

4.05 Catterick : Straidnahanna @ 5/2 BOG WON at 9/4 Prominent, led 3rd, pressed from 15th until went 2nd lengths ahead last, stayed on to win by 3.25 lengths...

We now go again with Tuesday's...

2.20 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Star Ascending @ 9/4 BOG

A Class 6, 1m4f apprentice handicap on fibresand worth £3,493 to the winner...

Why?

A 6 yr old gelding in top form after finishing 12211 in his last five outings : all here at Southwell and culminating in a course and distance success a week ago.

His trainer, Jennie Candlish will be hoping for yet another LTO winner to "double up" to continue her fine record of 23 winners from 91 (25.3% SR) for 36.98pts (+40.6% ROI) with such horses since the start of 2015, including handicappers at 21/80 (26.3%) for 39.32pts (+49.1%) and Class 6 'cappers at 5 from 13 (38.5%) for 13.46pts (+103.5%)

Furthermore, since the start of 2016, Jennie's A/W runners are 13/68 (19.1% SR) for 11.38pts (+16.7% ROI), including of relevance today...

  • handicappers : 12/59 (20.3%) for 14.73pts (+25%)
  • Class 6 : 8/41 (19.5%) for 11.85pts (+28.9%)
  • Class 6 handicappers : 8/37 (21.6%) for 15.85pts (+42.8%)
  • at Southwell : 4/16 (25%) for 7.04pts (+44%)
  • and Class 6 handicappers at Southwell : 4/15 (26.7%) for 8.04pts (+53.6%)

On top of the above, we have Jennie's record with horses sent back out after less than 10 days rest to consider, as these are 14/25 956% SR) for 68.04pts (+272.16% ROI) since the start of 2016, with LTO winners winning again on 6 of 8 (75% SR) occasions, generating profits of 8.37pts at an ROI of 104.7%.

And finally for now, since the start of 2013, Jennie's runners who were LTO winners 1-25 days earlier at the same class and trip next time out are 7/17 (41.2% SR) for 12.83pts (+75.5% ROI), with those now running at the same class, course and distance winning 3 of 7 (42.9%) for 4.27pts (+60.9%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Star Ascending @ 9/4 BOG which was available with Hills at 10.10pm on Monday with the non-BOG until morning pairing of Betfred & Totesport offering the same.. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.20 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 12th February 2018

Saturday's Result :

4.50 Warwick : The Dubai Way @ 3/1 BOG WON at 5/2 Tracked leader, led before last, kept on, ridden out to win by a length...

We start a new week with Monday's...

4.05 Catterick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Straidnahanna @ 5/2 BOG

A Class 3, 3m1.5f handicap chase on soft ground worth £8,707 to the winner...

Why?

Well, for a start, we know that trainer Sue Smith targets this race, having won it three times in four years and the that she has two of today's six runners is also a pointer in that direction. I just feel that our pick is her better option and the jockey booking (Danny Cook) would appear to back that up.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Our runner won this race himself two years ago and is unbeaten in three visits to Catterick : all over fences including...

  • 2 x handicaps
  • 2 at Class 3
  • 2 at 3m1f/3m1.5f
  • 2 with Danny Cook
  • 1 on soft ground

Meanwhile, Sue's horses are going well, winning 1 in 5 over the past month (8/40) rising to a 25% strike rate in the lats 7 days (3/12), whilst here at Catterick since the start of 2014, she has 27 winners from 93 (29% SR) for profits of 96.77pts at a phenomenal ROI of some 104.1%.

Amongst those 93 Catterick entries...

  • handicappers are 19/59 (32.2%) for 38.1pts (+64.6%)
  • those ridden by Danny Cook are 15/42 (35.7%) for 29.5pts (+70.2%)
  • chasers are 18/37 (48.7%) for 63.6pts (+171.9%)
  • those racing over 3m1f and beyond are 14/36 (38.9%) for 34.45pts (+95.7%)
  • on Soft ground : 13/32 (40.6%) for 51.3pts (+160.3%)
  • those racing at Class 3 : 11/23 (47.8%) for 39.75pts (+172.8%)
  • those with a previous Catterick win are 12/17 (70.6%) for 45.38pts (+266.9%)

AND...Smith / Cook / Catterick / Soft ground / Handicap Chase = 3/3 (100% SR) for 18.92pts (+630.8% ROI) since the start of 2016, all at Class 3.

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Straidnahanna @ 5/2 BOG which was generally available at 5.50pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.05 Catterick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 12th February 2018

Saturday's Result :

4.50 Warwick : The Dubai Way @ 3/1 BOG WON at 5/2 Tracked leader, led before last, kept on, ridden out to win by a length...

We start a new week with Monday's...

4.05 Catterick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Straidnahanna @ 5/2 BOG

A Class 3, 3m1.5f handicap chase on soft ground worth £8,707 to the winner...

Why?

Well, for a start, we know that trainer Sue Smith targets this race, having won it three times in four years and the that she has two of today's six runners is also a pointer in that direction. I just feel that our pick is her better option and the jockey booking (Danny Cook) would appear to back that up.

Our runner won this race himself two years ago and is unbeaten in three visits to Catterick : all over fences including...

  • 2 x handicaps
  • 2 at Class 3
  • 2 at 3m1f/3m1.5f
  • 2 with Danny Cook
  • 1 on soft ground

Meanwhile, Sue's horses are going well, winning 1 in 5 over the past month (8/40) rising to a 25% strike rate in the lats 7 days (3/12), whilst here at Catterick since the start of 2014, she has 27 winners from 93 (29% SR) for profits of 96.77pts at a phenomenal ROI of some 104.1%.

Amongst those 93 Catterick entries...

  • handicappers are 19/59 (32.2%) for 38.1pts (+64.6%)
  • those ridden by Danny Cook are 15/42 (35.7%) for 29.5pts (+70.2%)
  • chasers are 18/37 (48.7%) for 63.6pts (+171.9%)
  • those racing over 3m1f and beyond are 14/36 (38.9%) for 34.45pts (+95.7%)
  • on Soft ground : 13/32 (40.6%) for 51.3pts (+160.3%)
  • those racing at Class 3 : 11/23 (47.8%) for 39.75pts (+172.8%)
  • those with a previous Catterick win are 12/17 (70.6%) for 45.38pts (+266.9%)

AND...Smith / Cook / Catterick / Soft ground / Handicap Chase = 3/3 (100% SR) for 18.92pts (+630.8% ROI) since the start of 2016, all at Class 3.

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Straidnahanna @ 5/2 BOG which was generally available at 5.50pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.05 Catterick

Please note, I've been in Prague for the last five days and I'm travelling home this afternoon/evening, so Tuesday's pick will go out much later than usual. Hopefully before 11pm, but keep an eye on the site/social media to be sure!

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

SotD Update, 5th to 10th February 2018

For the second week in a row, all six SotD picks made the frame and with half of them going on to win, another 7.75pts in the bank represented an excellent return.

This takes February's profit in to double figures after just nine picks and we probably just need a couple of winners to guarantee another profitable month!

Selections & Results : 05/02/18 to 10/02/18 

05/02 : Temasek Star @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 4/1
06/02 : Foolaad @ 11/4 BOG WON at 11/10
07/02 : Mossys Lodge @ 3/1 BOG WON at 5/1
08/02 : Fareeq @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 5/2
09/02 : Volpone Jelois @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 5/1
10/02 : The Dubai Way @ 3/1 BOG WON at 5/2 

05/02/18 to 10/02/18  :
3 winning bets from 6 = 50.00% SR
P/L: +7.75pts

February 2018 :
4 winners from 9 = 44.44% SR
P/L: +10.25pts
ROI = +113.88%

Overall:
533 winners from 1917 = 27.80% S.R
P/L: +504.86pts
ROI: +26.33%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.

Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are now available here.

Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take your £1, 30-day trial right now?

Click here for more details.

Stat of the Day, 10th February 2018

Friday's Result :

4.45 Chelmsford : Volpone Jelois @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 5/1 Tracked leader, driven to challenge over 2f out, stayed on same pace approaching final furlong...

We end another successful week with Saturday's...

4.50 Warwick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

The Dubai Way @ 3/1 BOG

A Class 4, 2m handicap hurdle on soft ground worth £4,549 to the winner...

Why?

This 6 yr old gelding was a winner over 3m in his final Point to Point race before starting his career under rules with three straight wins, all at 2m/2m0.5f on soft or heavy at Class 4 under today's jockey Harry Bannister.

So although his effort for a 4-timer is also a handicap debut, he should at least be accustomed to the race conditions.

His trainer, Harry Whittington, is 7 from 25 (28% SR) for 12.12pts (+48.5% ROI) with handicap debutants and these include...

  • 21-150 days since last run : 7/20 (35%) for 17.12pts (+85.6%)
  • over hurdles : 4/18 (22.2%) for 1.09pts (+6%)
  • at Class 4 : 2/9 (22.2%) for 2.88pts (+32%)
  • on soft/heavy : 2/5 (40%) for 3.14pts (+62.8%)
  • LTO winners : 2/3 (66.6%) for 9.55pts (+318.2%)

That stat re: LTO winners isn't really a surprise, as Harry's LTO winners are 6/14 (42.9% SR) for 11.46pts (+81.8% ROI) in handicaps just since the start of 2017!

And, since 2013 in UK handicap hurdle contests, horses who won a Novice hurdle last time out in the previous 90 days, went on to score again on 162 of 893 (18.1%) for 146pts (+16.4%), including...

  • on handicap debut : 66/361 (18.3%) for 78.44pts (+21.7%)
  • 31-90 dslr : 54/304 (17.8%) for 95.04pts (+31.3%)
  • on soft ground : 40/226 (17.7%) for 40.1pts (+17.7%)
  • and here at Warwick : 5/23 (21.7%) for 10.54pts (+45.8%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on The Dubai Way @ 3/1 BOG which was widely available at 7.45pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.50 Warwick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!