Posts

Stat of the Day, 20th March 2019

Tuesday's pick was...

4.00 Taunton : Oxwich Bay @ 4/1 BOG 5th at 9/4 (Chased leaders in 4th, pushed along after 3 out, weakened on long run before next)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

4.20 Haydock :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Dartford Warbler 15/2 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 4, Veterans Handicap Chase for 10yo+ over 2m7f on Soft (Heavy in places) worth £8058 to the winner... 

Why?

So, it's the old boys on show here and with very little in the way of decent, recent form on show from this 10-runner field, our boy's 3 wins and 2 places from 8 starts over the last 9 months stands out quite starkly.

He has 9 career wins to date, broken down with this contest in mind as follows...

  • 7 within 3 weeks of his last run
  • 5 at Class 4, 5 in fields of 8-11 runners, 5 going left handed
  • 4 over fences, 4 under Danny Cook's steering
  • 3 on Soft ground
  • and 2 as a 12 yr old

As intimated above, Danny Cook will be in the saddle and his record riding for trainer Sue Smith is quite remarkable, as the partnership is actually profitable to back blindly after over 600 outings! More accurately, they are 116/643 (18% SR) for 125.9pts (+19.6% ROI) together and in the context of this race, those 643 runners can be filtered as follows...

  • males are 114/611 (18.7%) for 147.9pts (+24.2%)
  • in races worth less than £13,000 : 102/533 (19.1%) for 102.3pts (+19.2%)
  • in fields of 6-12 runners : 88/460 (19.1%) for 162.3pts (+35.3%)
  • in handicaps : 91/450 (20.2%) for 102.7pts (+22.8%)
  • in chases : 78/372 (21%) for 42.3pts (+11.4%)
  • unplaced LTO : 69/361 (19.1%) for 205pts (+56.8%)
  • Soft/Heavy ground : 73/359 (20.3%) for 68.25pts (+19%)
  • Class 4 : 57/291 (19.6%) for 67.9pts (+23.2%)
  • 16-25 days since last run : 36/177 (20.3%) for 35.5pts (+20%)
  • at Haydock : 10/63 (15.9%) for 65.6pts (+104.2%)
  • and in 2019 alone : 13/54 (24.1%) for 30pts (+55.6%)

...and from the above...male hcp chasers in fields of 6-12 runners competing for £4-13k on Soft ground = 24/70 (34.3% SR) for 47.4pts (+67.7% ROI), including...

  • within 45 days of last run : 22/57 (38.6%) for 54.1pts (+94.9%)
  • Class 4 : 12/40 (30%) for 12.76pts (+31.9%)
  • Class 4 within 45 days : 11/30 (36.7%) for 19.7pts (+65.7%)
  • in 2019 : 2/5 (40%) for 9.12pts (+182.4%)
  • and in 2019 at Class 4 within 45 days of last run = 2/2 (100%) for 12.12pts (+606%) : both by today's pick Dartford Warbler!

Finally (!) and more generally, since the start of 2014 in UK Class 3-5 handicap chases, males who won two starts ago and are now running less than 3 weeks after finishing fourth last time out are 36/137 (26.3% SR) for 156.7pts (+114.4% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Dartford Warbler 15/2 BOG which was available from Hills at 5.20pm on Tuesday evening, whilst Betfair were offering 8/1 BOG. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.20 Haydock

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 19th March 2019

Monday's pick was...

3.05 Southwell : Darlyn @ 7/2 BOG WON at 11/4 (Chased leaders, went 2nd 4 out, led before 2 out, pressed last, found extra run-in, driven out to win by a length)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

4.00 Taunton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Oxwich Bay 4/1 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 4, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m½f on Soft worth £5133 to the winner... 

Why?

This 7 yr old gelding bears top weight here today, conceding at least 7lbs to each of his rivals despite a fairly poor run of form over the past 12 months. In fairness most of that run of form has been over the larger obstacles, but he did revert to hurdling (considered good enough to run at Gr3 less than a year ago!) for his latest run 23 days ago when a reasonable fourth at a higher grade than this and on ground faster than he'd ever run on before.

A drop in class allied to softer conditions underfoot should see him in a better light as he seeks to improve upon his trainer's already decent record at this venue. Putting that into numbers, we see that trainer Evan Williams' handicappers are 16 from 96 (16.6% SR) for 31.5pts (+32.8% ROI) here at Taunton since 2013, with the following of relevance today...

  • males are 16/90 (17.8%) for 37.5pts (+41.6%)
  • hurdlers are 10/55 (18.2%) for 45.7pts (+83%)
  • at 2m to 2m1f : 8/38 (21.1%) for 39.62pts (+104.3%)
  • at odds of 2/1 to 6/1 : 10/37 (27%) for 15.16pts (+41%)
  • on Soft ground : 5/27 (18.5%) for 6.62pts (+24.5%)
  • and 7 yr olds are 4/18 922.2%) for 23.7pts (+131.9%)

Now, the fact he concedes weight all round could be seen as a negative by some people, but you might (or might not!) find it interesting that since the start of 2014 in UK Class 4 handicap hurdle contests, top-rated (OR) 5 to 9 yr olds carrying a race top-weight of 11-13 to 12-07 (after all claims considered) are 59 from 235 (25.1% SR) for 60.7pts (+25.8% ROI), from which...

  • those sent off at 15/2 or shorter are 57/164 (34.8%) for 97.56pts (+59.5%)
  • those last seen 4-30 days earlier are 47/137 (34.3%) for 76.26pts (+55.7%)
  • those rated (OR) 113-124 are 37/129 (28.7%) for 62.16pts (+48.2%)
  • over 1m7.5f to 2m0.5f : 17/55 (30.9%) for 49.27pts (+89.6%)
  • on Soft ground : 15/50 (30%) for 30.4pts (+60.8%)
  • and 7 yr old sare 14/49 (28.6%) for 24.93pts (+50.9%)

...and a simple yet highly profitable micro from the above? How about those sent off at 15/2 or shorter, 4-30 days after their last run? These runners are 47 from 102 (46.1% SR) for 111.26pts (+109.1% ROI) profit!

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Oxwich Bay 4/1 BOG which was available from half a dozen firms at 5.20pm on Monday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.00 Taunton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 18th March 2019

Saturday's pick was...

2.25 Uttoxeter : Captain Cattistock @ 7/2 BOG 3rd at 5/2 (Led until not fluent 13th, led next, blundered and headed 4 out, wandering after 2 out, no impression on winner last, lost 2nd towards finish)

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.05 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Darlyn 7/2 BOG

Your first 30 days for just £1

...in a 9-runner, Class 4, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 1m7½f on Soft worth £4094 to the winner... 

Why?

This 6yr old mare has finished 114 in her last three runs over the space of 65 days, but heads here having been rested for the last 8 weeks. The middle run of that sequence was her only previous visit to this track, resulting in a Class 3 course and distance success under today's jockey James Davies, so conditions shouldn't be totally alien to her.

Trainer Henry Oliver's horse have won 7 of 35 (20% SR) for 7.7pts (+22% ROI) in the past 30 days, so they're in good nick and those numbers include...

  • 5/28 (17.9%) for 12.23pts (+43.7%) in handicaps
  • 4/19 (21.1%) for 17.03pts (+89.7%) over hurdles
  • 6/16 (37.5%) for 1.95pts (+12.2%) at odds of 4/1 and shorter
  • and 2/8 (25%) for 19.79pts (+247.4%) on soft/heavy ground

Overall, Henry's record here at Southwell in handicap hurdle contests stands at 5 wins from 16 (31.25% SR) for 2.9pts (+18.1% ROI), from which...

  • 5-6 yr olds are 4/9 (44.4%) for 8.65pts (+95%)
  • those racing at 1m7.5f/2m are also 4/9 (44.4%) for 8.65pts (+95%)
  • Class 4 runners are 3/9 (33.3%) for 3.98pts (+44.2%)
  • those ridden by James Davies are 2/6 (33.3%) for 1.04pts (+17.4%)
  • and those sent off at odds of 6/4 to 11/2 are an impressive 4 from 4 (100%) for 13.66pts (+341.5%)

More generally, Henry's record in handicap hurdle races on soft or worse ground stands at 31/109 (28.4% SR) for 63.7pts (+58.4% ROI) since 2014 with those racing over trips shorter than 2m3f winning 21 of 62 (33.9%) for 28.7pts (+46.2%), whilst previous course and distance winners are 3 from 4 (75%) for 7.56pts (+188.9%).

And since 2013, the yard's record in NH handicaps from horses with just one run in the previous 90 days is 30 from 146 (20.6% SR) for 49.6pts (+34% ROI), including...

  • 4-8 yr olds : 27/121 (22.3%) for 60.2pts (+49.7%)
  • at trips shorter than 2m5f : 28/112 (25%) for 74.7pts (+66.7%)
  • those unplaced LTO are 22/110 (20%) for 56.9pts (+51.7%)
  • at Class 4 : 18/65 (27.7%) for 50.5pts (+77.8%)
  • on Soft ground : 10/44 (22.7%) for 16.2pts (+36.9%)
  • females : 9/16 (31.6%) for 25.8pts (+135.5%)

...from which...4-8 yr olds at trips shorter than 2m5f and were unplaced LTO = 20/74 (27%) for 83pts (+112.2% ROI)

And finally, back to the horse herself : she's by Authorized, whose 4-6 yr old offspring are 17/86 (19.8% SR) for 23.3pts (+27.1% ROI) in UK handicap hurdle races on soft ground or worse since 2014, with those sent off shorter than 9/1 winning 15 of 53 (28.3% SR) for 24.4pts (+46.1% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Darlyn 7/2 BOG which was widely available at 6.25pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.05 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 18th March 2019

Saturday's pick was...

2.25 Uttoxeter : Captain Cattistock @ 7/2 BOG 3rd at 5/2 (Led until not fluent 13th, led next, blundered and headed 4 out, wandering after 2 out, no impression on winner last, lost 2nd towards finish)

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.05 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Darlyn 7/2 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 4, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 1m7½f on Soft worth £4094 to the winner... 

Why?

This 6yr old mare has finished 114 in her last three runs over the space of 65 days, but heads here having been rested for the last 8 weeks. The middle run of that sequence was her only previous visit to this track, resulting in a Class 3 course and distance success under today's jockey James Davies, so conditions shouldn't be totally alien to her.

Trainer Henry Oliver's horse have won 7 of 35 (20% SR) for 7.7pts (+22% ROI) in the past 30 days, so they're in good nick and those numbers include...

  • 5/28 (17.9%) for 12.23pts (+43.7%) in handicaps
  • 4/19 (21.1%) for 17.03pts (+89.7%) over hurdles
  • 6/16 (37.5%) for 1.95pts (+12.2%) at odds of 4/1 and shorter
  • and 2/8 (25%) for 19.79pts (+247.4%) on soft/heavy ground

Overall, Henry's record here at Southwell in handicap hurdle contests stands at 5 wins from 16 (31.25% SR) for 2.9pts (+18.1% ROI), from which...

  • 5-6 yr olds are 4/9 (44.4%) for 8.65pts (+95%)
  • those racing at 1m7.5f/2m are also 4/9 (44.4%) for 8.65pts (+95%)
  • Class 4 runners are 3/9 (33.3%) for 3.98pts (+44.2%)
  • those ridden by James Davies are 2/6 (33.3%) for 1.04pts (+17.4%)
  • and those sent off at odds of 6/4 to 11/2 are an impressive 4 from 4 (100%) for 13.66pts (+341.5%)

More generally, Henry's record in handicap hurdle races on soft or worse ground stands at 31/109 (28.4% SR) for 63.7pts (+58.4% ROI) since 2014 with those racing over trips shorter than 2m3f winning 21 of 62 (33.9%) for 28.7pts (+46.2%), whilst previous course and distance winners are 3 from 4 (75%) for 7.56pts (+188.9%).

And since 2013, the yard's record in NH handicaps from horses with just one run in the previous 90 days is 30 from 146 (20.6% SR) for 49.6pts (+34% ROI), including...

  • 4-8 yr olds : 27/121 (22.3%) for 60.2pts (+49.7%)
  • at trips shorter than 2m5f : 28/112 (25%) for 74.7pts (+66.7%)
  • those unplaced LTO are 22/110 (20%) for 56.9pts (+51.7%)
  • at Class 4 : 18/65 (27.7%) for 50.5pts (+77.8%)
  • on Soft ground : 10/44 (22.7%) for 16.2pts (+36.9%)
  • females : 9/16 (31.6%) for 25.8pts (+135.5%)

...from which...4-8 yr olds at trips shorter than 2m5f and were unplaced LTO = 20/74 (27%) for 83pts (+112.2% ROI)

And finally, back to the horse herself : she's by Authorized, whose 4-6 yr old offspring are 17/86 (19.8% SR) for 23.3pts (+27.1% ROI) in UK handicap hurdle races on soft ground or worse since 2014, with those sent off shorter than 9/1 winning 15 of 53 (28.3% SR) for 24.4pts (+46.1% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Darlyn 7/2 BOG which was widely available at 6.25pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.05 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

SotD Update, 11th to 16th March 2019

March continues to be equally frustrating, tough, challenging, interesting etc and after another week of just one winner, we currently stand with a monthly deficit of 3.5pts. The stats suggest we're one shy of parity and had we managed to find one from somewhere, we'd be in profit, such are the fine margins we work within.

That said, I think we've got excuses from the past week, I was really keen on Hanakotoba on Wednesday but that one didn't run. Potters Midnight blew the last and the race on Friday, whilst I was at Uttoxeter on Saturday to see Captain Cattistock run really well but threw the race away with a bad mistake four out.

However, jumps racing means you have to jump and ifs/buts don't put food on my table, so if my kids want to eat, I'll need to find some more winners!

Selections & Results : 11/03/19 to 16/03/19

11/03 : Le Capricieux @ 7/2 BOG 4th at 9/2 
12/03 : Lucarno Dancer @ 10/3 BOG UR at 3/1
13/03 : Hanakotoba @ 3/1 BOG non-runner
14/03 : Tynecastle Park @ 7/2 BOG WON at 6/4
15/03 : Potters Midnight @ 11/2 BOG 4th at 5/2
16/03 : Captain Cattistock @ 7/2 BOG 3rd at 5/2

11/03/19 to 16/03/19 :
1 winning bet from 5 = 20.00% SR
P/L: -0.50pts

March 2019 :
2 winner from 13 = 15.38% SR
P/L: -3.50pts
ROI = -26.92%

2019 to date :
16 winners from 55 = 29.09% SR
P/L: +26.75pts
ROI = +48.64%

Overall:
606 winners from 2233 = 27.14% S.R
P/L: +523.15pts
ROI: +23.43%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is
here.
Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are
now available here.
Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here
And here is the full story from 2017.

2018 was the latest full year for SotD and the yearly review is right here

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take the plunge and get involved right now?

Click here for more details.

Stat of the Day, 16th March 2019

Friday's pick was...

3.55 Fakenham : Potters Midnight @ 11/2 BOG 4th at 5/2 (Prominent, ridden to lead bend approaching last, blundered last, soon headed, no extra)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

2.25 Uttoxeter :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Captain Cattistock 7/2 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 2, Novice Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 3m on Heavy worth £25024 to the winner... 

Why?

A bit late with the write-up (I was waiting until the track passed inspection!) and the going is now heavy...

...but I'm hoping that won't tax our 6yr old gelding who won 22 days ago when last seen at Exeter, taking his career record to 4 wins from 10, including...

  • 4/9 wearing at tongue tie
  • 4/7 in fields of 5-11 runners
  • 4/7 when sent off at 6/1 or shorter
  • 3/5 after a break of 3-6 weeks
  • 3/4 in February/March
  • 2/2 on heavy
  • 1 win and 1 place from 2 over this trip
  • 1/1 in handicap novice chases
  • and 1 from 1 under today's jockey Lorcan Williams

Trainer Paul Nicholls' chasers are running/jumping well right now with a 30-day record showing 12 winners from 44 (27.3% SR) for 10.78pts (+24.5% ROI).

As for the going, we know he's 2/2 on heavy, but you might not know that he's by Black Sam Bellamy, whose 4-10 yr old, soft/heavy ground, handicap jumpers are 18 from 129 (14% SR) for 21.8pts (+16.9% ROI) since the start of 2017...

...whilst more generally since 2014 in UK Class 1-4 handicap chases, horses sent off at 7/1 and shorter, 6-25 days after winning a Novice chase LTO are 159/537 (29.6% SR) for 111.1pts (+20.7%) and these include...

  • males at 147/497 (29.6%) for 103.5pts (+20.8%)
  • over trips of 2m6f to 3m2.5f : 63/202 (31.2%) for 82pts (+40.6%)
  • at Class 2 : 12/49 (24.5%) for 19.3pts (+39.4%)
  • and here at Uttoxeter : 11/27 (40.7%) for 27.5pts (+101.8%)

...from which males over 2m6f to 3m2.5f are 59/186 (31.7% SR) for 81.6pts (+43.9% ROI), with 7 winners from 17 (41.2%) for 26.2pts (+154%) here at Uttoxeter...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Captain Cattistock 7/2 BOG which was widely available at 5.20pm on Friday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.25 Uttoxeter

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 15th March 2019

Thursday's pick was...

8.00 Southwell : Tynecastle Park @ 7/2 BOG WON at 6/4 (Disputed lead until led over 4f out, ridden 2f out, stayed on strongly to win by 2.5 lengths)

Friday's pick runs in the...

3.55 Fakenham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Potters Midnight 11/2 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 3, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m on Good To Soft worth £10787 to the winner... 

Why?

With a first prize of almost £11k, this is the day's most valuable race (if you discard that other meeting) and I'm hoping to win it with a 9 yr old mare who has 3 wins and 3 places from her last 8 efforts over hurdles and was third LTO at Market Rasen on quicker ground than she'd like 26 days ago.

That said, another place took her career stats to...

  • 4/8 at 2m-2m0.5f
  • 3/6 at 2m
  • 2 wins and 2 places from 11 in fields of 8-11 runners
  • 2 wins and a place from 5 under jockey Jack Quinlan
  • 2 wins and a place from 5 here at Fakenham
  • 2 from 3 here over 2m-2m0.5f
  • 2 wins and a place from 3 at Class 3
  • and 1/1 over course and distance

...so conditions look ideal for another big run and her yard is in decent form too. Since our mare's third placed finish LTO, her trainer Lucy Wadham has had 6 winners from 18 runners (33.3% SR) for 27.66pts (+153.7% ROI) profit and these have included...

  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 27.74pts (+252.2%) in handicaps
  • 5/10 (50%) for 8.44pts (+84.4%) at odds of evens to 4/1
  • and 3/5 (60%) for 32.2pts (+644%) at Class 3.

...whilst more generally, here at Fakenham, Lucy is 28/104 (26.9% SR) for 46pts (+44.3% ROI) since the start of 2012 and this fantastic record includes the following baker's dozen of profitable angles all at play today...

  • at odds of 11/10 to 10/1 : 27/86 (31.4%) for 62.3pts (+72.5%)
  • hurdlers : 15/65 (23.1%) for 12pts (+18.4%)
  • handicappers : 16/64 (25%) for 22.7pts (+35.5%)
  • finished 2nd-6th LTO : 18/60 (30%) for 35pts (+58.4%)
  • 3 to 10 weeks since last run : 19/54 (35.2%) for 40.2pts (+74.5%)
  • 2m-2m1f : 13/39 (33.3%) for 33.8pts (+86.7%)
  • Class 3 : 11/32 (34.4%) for 38pts (+118.6%)
  • Good to Soft : 9/26 (34.6%) for 26.5pts (+102%)
  • Feb/March : 7/24 (29.2%) for 13pts (+54.3%)
  • in 2018 : 7/20 (35%) for 15.54pts (+77.7%)
  • 8/9 yr olds : 9/19 (47.4%) for 27.5pts (+144.7%)
  • placed 3rd LTO : 6/16 (37.5%) for 18.45pts (+115.3%)
  • and horses with 1 previous C&D win are 4/10 (40%) for 3.35pts (+33.5%)

...which all points towards... a 1pt win bet on Potters Midnight 11/2 BOG which was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 6.00pm on Thursday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.55 Fakenham

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 14th March 2019

Wednesday's pick was...

4.40 Kempton : Hanakotoba @ 3/1 BOG non-runner 

Thursday's pick runs in the...

8.00 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Tynecastle Park 7/2 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 2m½f on Fibresand worth £3105 to the winner...

Why?

This 6 yr old gelding should have no issues with getting this trip today, as not only has he completed nine hurdle races at distances of 2m to 3m2f, he also has a form line reading 2212 over this very course and distance.

He's by Sea The Stars, whose offspring are 80/335 (23.9% SR) for 186.5pts (+55.7% ROI) on the all-weather since the start of 2016, including 6 from 22 (27.3%) for 5.11pts (+23.2%) here at Southwell.

Jockey Darragh Keenan takes the ride today, aiming to build upon his already decent 6/25 (24% SR) record on this track that has generated profits of 56.1pts at a very attractive ROI of some 224.2% and those rides include...

  • 3/12 (25%) for 20.62pts (+171.8%) riding for Robert Eddery
  • 3/4 (75%) for 28.62pts (+715.5%) at trips of 1m6f and beyond
  • 3/4 (75%) for 28.62pts (+715.5%) for Robert at 1m6f and beyond

Those three winners above actually represent all of Robert's winners at this track, that said Darragh has ridden all bar 3 of Robert's 13 runners here over the last 200 days finishing 1122910022 for a record reading 3/10 (30% SR) for 22.62pts (+226.2% ROI) including a win and a runner-up finish on today's runner Tynecastle Park...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Tynecastle Park 7/2 BOG which was widely available at 6.25pm on Wednesday evening, although Bet365 were offering 4/1 BOG. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 8.00 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 13th March 2019

Tuesday's pick was...

3.15 Sedgefield : Lucarno Dancer @ 10/3 BOG UR at 3/1 (Chased leaders, blundered and unseated rider 5th)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

4.40 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Hanakotoba 3/1 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap for 3yo fillies over 6f on Polytrack worth £3752 to the winner...

Why?

This 3 yr old filly (obvs!) has never finished outside the first four home in seven starts on the A/W, winning twice : firstly over this very course and distance back in October and more recently last time out, 37 days ago, over 5f at Wolverhampton.

She has finished 1st and 3rd on her two previous visits to Kempton, she's 2 from 3 when sent off at 4/1 or shorter and is 1 from 1 over track and trip.

Her jockey Richard Kingscote has been on good form of late winning 7 of 30 (23.3% SR) for 42.06pts (+140.2% ROI) over the last 30 days and these include...

  • 7/24 (29.2%) for 48.06pts (+200.2%) on Polytrack
  • 4/10 (40%) for 47.93pts (+479.3%) here at Kempton
  • 2/6 (33.3%) for 5.71pts (+95.2%) over 6 furlongs
  • and 2/2 (100%) for 9.71pts (+485.5%) here at Kempton over this 6f C&D.

None of those 30 rides above have been for today's trainer Stuart Williams, but over the last two years, the duo have 7 wins from 34 (20.6% SR) together, generating profits of 12.24pts (+36% ROI) and with today's race in mind, they include...

  • 6/22 (27.3%) for 13.74pts (+62.4%) in handicaps
  • 6/22 (27.3%) for 13.74pts (+62.4%) at odds of 6/4 to 6/1
  • 6/24 (25%) for 11.74pts (+48.9%) with horses with a run in the previous 40 days
  • 4/13 (30.8%) for 20.4pts (+156.7%) over 6f
  • 2/8 (25%) for 6.84pts (+85.6%) at Class 5

...whilst from the above...handicappers sent off at 6/4 to 6/1 within 40 days of their last run are 6 from 14 (42.9% SR) for 21.74pts (+155.3% ROI), including 3 winners from 6 (50%) for 16.87pts (+281.2%) over 6f...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Hanakotoba 3/1 BOG which was widely available at 7.00pm on Tuesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.40 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 12th March 2019

Monday's pick was...

2.40 Stratford : Le Capricieux @ 7/2 BOG 4th at 9/2 (Chased leaders, went 2nd 7th until next, blundered and lost place 2 out, rallied under pressure disputing 3rd between last 2)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

3.15 Sedgefield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Lucarno Dancer 10/3 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 5, Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 2m½f on Soft worth £3314 to the winner...

Why?

This 9 yr old mare was a winner on her chase debut at Catterick in a Class 4 contest a little over 10 weeks ago and now takes a drop in class today. Callum Whillans was riding her for the first time that day and he retains the ride here, hoping to put his 3lb claim to good use.

The mare has previously own on soft ground and in fact both previous career victories have been going left handed whilst wearing a tongue tie, as will be the case today.

Stat/numerically-wise, I'm keeping it really simple today (I'm sure you've other more important stuff to read about another meeting elsewhere this afternoon!)...

Trainer Donald Whillans + Sedgefield + 2014-19 = 6/24 (25% SR) for 22.83pts (+95.1% ROI), why he doesn't bring ore horses here is beyond me, but of those 24 over the last five years...

  • those ridden by Callum are 6/23 (26.1%) for 23.83pts (+103.6%)
  • handicappers are 5/19 (26.3%) for 19.04pts (+100.2%)
  • those sent of in the 2/1 to 9/1 bracket are 6/17 (35.3%) for 29.83pts (+175.5%)
  • those racing on soft/heavy ground are 4/17 (23.5%) for 14.35pts (+84.4%)
  • those rated (OR) less than 90 are 5/14 (35.7%) for 27.75pts (+198.2%)
  • those last seen 3 to 11 weeks ago are 4/14(28.6%) for 20.38pts (+145.6%)
  • those racing over trips shorter than 2.5 miles are 5/13 (38.5%) for 28.75pts (+221.2%)
  • female runners are 4/13 (30.8%) for 19.39pts (+149.1%)
  • and those racing on soft ground are 3/13 (23.1%) for 7.2pts (+55.4%)

...from which we can ascertain that...Donald + Callum + Sedgefield handicaps + 2/1 to 9/1 + shorter than 2.5 miles + OR of 75 to 90 = 4/5 (80% SR) for 27.96pts (+559.2% ROI) profit and these include...

  • females at 3/3 (100%) for 20.6pts (+686.5%)
  • soft/heavy at 2/3 (66.6%) for 14.47pts (+482.3%)
  • and females on soft/heavy are 2/2 (100%) for 15.47pts (+773.5%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Lucarno Dancer 10/3 BOG which was available in half a dozen or so places at 6.05pm on Monday evening, although I'm on with Skybet at 7/2 BOG. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.15 Sedgefield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 11th March 2019

Saturday's pick was...

8.00 Kempton : Treacherous @ 3/1 BOG WON at 4/1 (Off the pace in mid-division, headway chasing leaders over 1f out, went 2nd inside final furlong, closed to lead towards finish to win by a head)

Monday's pick runs in the...

2.40 Stratford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Who?

Le Capricieux 7/2 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 4, Novices Limited Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 2m1½f  on Good To Soft, worth £4809 to the winner...

Why?

An 8 yr old gelding making just a fifth start over fences having progressively during a form line of 4331 over the larger obstacles, culminating in an easy 9 length success at Fontwell 25 days ago.

He's by Alberto Giacometti, not the most well known of sires, but whose offspring are 18/69 (26.1% SR) for 66.5pts (+96.4% ROI) in NH contests over 2m to 2m2f since 2012, including...

  • 10/34 (29.4%) for 71.56pts (+210.5%) from December to April
  • 8/34 (23.5%) for 67.9pts (+199.6%) in handicaps
  • 13/27 (48.2%) for 7.76pts (+28.8%) at odds shorter than 5/1
  • 6/20 (30%) for 66.7pts (+333.5%) within 25 days of their last run
  • 5/18 (27.8%) for 25.56pts (+143.7%) since the start of 2017
  • and 6/13 (46.2%) for 0.04pts (+0.3%) from LTO winners...

...whilst trainer Gary Moore's own record with chasers who won LTO currently stands at 36 from 119 (30.25% SR) for 58.9pts (+49.5% ROI) profit since 2013, from which...

  • those who ran in the previous 60 days are 32/94 (34%) for 66.3pts (+70.5%)
  • at trips of 1m7.5f to 2m2f : 20/49 (40.9%) for 44.1pts (+90%)
  • at 1m7.5f to 2m2f within 60 days of last run : 18/38 (47.4%) for 46.2pts (+121.6%)
  • and those ridden by a 3lb claimer are 4 from 6 (66.6%) for 19.37pts (+322.8%)

...and this simple approach gives us... a 1pt win bet on Le Capricieux 7/2 BOG which was available from Boylesports & SkyBet at 7.25pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.40 Stratford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 11th March 2019

Saturday's pick was...

8.00 Kempton : Treacherous @ 3/1 BOG WON at 4/1 (Off the pace in mid-division, headway chasing leaders over 1f out, went 2nd inside final furlong, closed to lead towards finish to win by a head)

Monday's pick runs in the...

2.40 Stratford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Le Capricieux 7/2 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 4, Novices Limited Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 2m1½f  on Good To Soft, worth £4809 to the winner...

Why?

An 8 yr old gelding making just a fifth start over fences having progressively during a form line of 4331 over the larger obstacles, culminating in an easy 9 length success at Fontwell 25 days ago.

He's by Alberto Giacometti, not the most well known of sires, but whose offspring are 18/69 (26.1% SR) for 66.5pts (+96.4% ROI) in NH contests over 2m to 2m2f since 2012, including...

  • 10/34 (29.4%) for 71.56pts (+210.5%) from December to April
  • 8/34 (23.5%) for 67.9pts (+199.6%) in handicaps
  • 13/27 (48.2%) for 7.76pts (+28.8%) at odds shorter than 5/1
  • 6/20 (30%) for 66.7pts (+333.5%) within 25 days of their last run
  • 5/18 (27.8%) for 25.56pts (+143.7%) since the start of 2017
  • and 6/13 (46.2%) for 0.04pts (+0.3%) from LTO winners...

...whilst trainer Gary Moore's own record with chasers who won LTO currently stands at 36 from 119 (30.25% SR) for 58.9pts (+49.5% ROI) profit since 2013, from which...

  • those who ran in the previous 60 days are 32/94 (34%) for 66.3pts (+70.5%)
  • at trips of 1m7.5f to 2m2f : 20/49 (40.9%) for 44.1pts (+90%)
  • at 1m7.5f to 2m2f within 60 days of last run : 18/38 (47.4%) for 46.2pts (+121.6%)
  • and those ridden by a 3lb claimer are 4 from 6 (66.6%) for 19.37pts (+322.8%)

...and this simple approach gives us... a 1pt win bet on Le Capricieux 7/2 BOG which was available from Boylesports & SkyBet at 7.25pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.40 Stratford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

SotD Update, 4th to 9th March 2019

After Friday's runner became our 8th placer in a run of 11 losers, I was fearful of back to back whitewashes, but thankfully late on Saturday night, Treacherous was brave enough to stick his head out and score for us at Kempton.

It was a most welcome winner for me personally, after a really poor day of punting elsewhere and no doubt the 4/1 SP was welcome to all SotD readers, as it kept the weekly loss down to a single point after the frustrations we all went through earlier in the week.

The challenge as always is to convert the placers into winners, March hasn't really taken off for us as yet, but we're only 1 winner shy of at least breaking even and with 8 losing placers in the past fortnight, I'm sure we're on the right tracks.

Business as usual this week, despite that jumping contest taking place in Gloucestershire, don't expect too many Festival selections from me, as a 3/1 winner in a Class 5 handicap pays the same as one in the Gold Cup! The real challenge is just finding a winner at the right price, I'm not fussy where it comes from.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Selections & Results : 04/03/19 to 09/03/19

04/03 : Arrowzone @ 4/1 BOG 11th at 7/1 
05/03 : Flood Defence @ 7/2 BOG 5th at 7/2
06/03 : Same Circus @ 10/3 BOG 2nd at 11/4
07/03 : Myplaceatmidnight @ 11/2 BOG 2nd at 3/1
08/03 : Darebin @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 9/2
09/03 : Treacherous @ 3/1 BOG WON at 4/1

04/03/19 to 09/03/19 :
1 winning bet from 6 = 00.00% SR
P/L: -1.00pt

March 2019 :
1 winner from 8 = 12.50% SR
P/L: -3.00pts
ROI = -37.50%

2019 to date :
15 winners from 50 = 30.00% SR
P/L: +27.25pts
ROI = +54.50%

Overall:
605 winners from 2228 = 27.15% S.R
P/L: +523.65pts
ROI: +23.50%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is
here.
Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are
now available here.
Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here
And here is the full story from 2017.

2018 was the latest full year for SotD and the yearly review is right here

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take the plunge and get involved right now?

Click here for more details.

Stat of the Day, 9th March 2019

Friday's pick was...

4.10 Sandown : Darebin @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 9/2 (Led, went right 4 out, headed 2 out, soon no chance with winner, weakened, lost 2nd towards finish)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

8.00 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Treacherous 3/1 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 3, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 6f on poly track, worth £9338 to the winner... 

Why?

Well, as I seem to be hitting more woodwork than a twitchy woodpecker, I'm going to try and keep this one pretty simple with a hat-trick seeking 5 yr old gelding who won at Newcastle over 6f 6 weeks ago and then here over this 6f C&D 3 weeks later/ago.

To date he is 5 from 13 (38.5% SR plus 4 places) on the A/W for 18.71pts (+144% ROI) profit, including...

  • 5/12 (41.7%) for 19.7pts (+164.3%) in handicaps
  • 4/12 (33.3%) for 14.88pts (+124%) here at Kempton
  • 4/8 (50%) for 15.2pts (+190%) under jockey Callum Shepherd
  • 4/8 (50%) for 15.2pts (+190%) at odds of 5/1 and shorter
  • 4/8 (50%) for 15.2pts (+190%) within 6-25 days of his last run
  • 3/5 (60%) for 10.57pts (+211.4%) over 6f
  • and 2 from 4 (50%) for 6.73pts (+168.3%) over this Kempton 6f course and distance

...and from the above...In Kempton handicaps at 5/1 and shorter under Callum Shepherd at 6-25 days since last run = 3/5 (60% SR) for 13.36pts (+267.2% ROI) including a 2/2 (100%) record over C&D worth 8.73pts (+436.5%).

He is trained by Ed de Giles, whose LTO winners are 11 from 36 (30.6% SR) for 21.2pts (+58.8% ROI) in A/W handicaps since the start of 2015, from which...

  • those priced at 5/1 and shorter are 10/22 (45.5%) for 17.1pts (+77.6%)
  • here at Kempton : 4/13 (30.8%) for 5.2pts (+40%)
  • 5/6 yr olds are 5/9 (55.5%) for 24.21pts (+269%)
  • and those ridden by Callum Shepherd are 3 from 7 (42.9%) for 7.6pts (+108.4%)

...whilst 5 yr olds sent off at 5/1 and shorter here at Kempton are 2 from 2 (100% SR) for 4.36pts (+218% ROI), with Callum having ridden one of them : Treacherous LTO!

...all of which led me to... a 1pt win bet on Treacherous 3/1 BOG which was available from Bet365 & BlackType at 7.05pm on Friday evening, although take 10/3 BOG from Skybet if you can, as I've done. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 8.00 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 8th March 2019

Thursday's pick was...

2.10 Wincanton : Myplaceatmidnight @ 11/2 BOG 2nd at 3/1 (Prominent, led after 3 out, jumped left and not fluent 2 out, not fluent last, headed towards finish and beaten by 0.75 lengths)

Friday's pick runs in the...

4.10 Sandown :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Darebin 4/1 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 3, Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 1m7½f on Soft ground, worth £7507 to the winner... 

Why?

A 7 yr old gelding in good form, including winning this very race last year and is 7 from 30 (23.33% SR) in NH races to date, including...

  • 6 wins and 2 places from 24 within a month of his last race
  • 6 wins and a place from 21 ridden by Jamie Moore (more on him shortly)
  • 5 wins, 3 places from 19 going right handed
  • 5 wins, 3 places from 14 over 1m7½f to 2m
  • 4 wins, 3 places from 13 on Soft ground
  • 5 from 10 at odds of 4/1 and shorter
  • 3 wins, 2 places from 10 here at Sandown
  • 2 wins and a place from 5 over course and distance in chases.

He's by It's Gone, whose offspring are 14/55 (25.5%) for 78.3pts (+142.3% ROI) in NH contests so far, including...

  • 14/45 (31.1%) for 88.3pts (+196.2%) over 1m7½f to 2m1½f
  • 12/44 (27.3%) for 78.9pts (+179.2%) from male runners
  • 5/23 (21.7%) for 39.1pts (+170.2%) on soft
  • 5/19 (26.3%) for 3.6pts (+19%) over fences
  • and 3/11 (27.3%) for 16.2pts (+147.2%) here at Sandown

He is trained by Gary Moore, whose chasers have won 18 of 72 (25% SR) for 54.8pts (+76.1% ROI) here at Sandown since the start of 2012, from which...

  • handicappers are 11/51 (21.6%) for 12.7pts (+24.8%)
  • 5-8 yr olds are 16/47 (34%) for 69.3pts (+147.5%)
  • those ridden by Jamie Moore are 13/38 (34.2%) for 35.5pts (+93.5%)
  • over 1m7½f to 2m : 12/32 (37.5%) for 40.4pts (+126.2%)
  • at Class 3 : 10/32 (31.25%) for 39.2pts (+122.5%)
  • and in March : 4/9 (44.4%) for 8.3pts (+92.1%)

...and 5-7 yr old male handicap chasers ridden by Jamie Moore are 6/15 (40% SR) for 20.5pts (+136.5% ROI) including 2 wins from 2 on Darebin over course and distance!

The above isn't too surprising, as Jamie has ridden 20 winners from 57 (35.1% SR) over fences here at Sandown since 2013, generating profits of 58.4pts at an very attractive ROI of some 102.4% and with today's race in mind, those numbers include...

  • from December to April : 19/47 (40.4%) for 62.4pts (+132.8%)
  • in handicaps : 15/47 (31.9%) for 38.9pts (+82.7%)
  • in fields of 10 or fewer : 19/40 (47.5%) for 66.4pts (+166%)
  • at odds of 10/1 or shorter : 20/38 (52.6%) for 77.4pts (+203.7%)
  • riding for Gary Moore : 12/35 (34.3%) for 36.9pts (+105.3%)
  • at Class 3 : 9/22 (40.9%) for 28.9pts (+131.1%)
  • and over 1m7½f to 2m : 14/21 (66.7%) for 39.5pts (+188.3%)

...from which...Dec-April + 10/1 max + 10 runners max + 1m7½f to 2m = 14/18 (77.8% SR) for 42.5pts (+236.3% ROI), including...

  • for Gary Moore : 8/11 (72.7%) for 23.7pts (+215.2%)
  • at Class 3 : 6/8 (75%) for 16.6pts (+207%)
  • for Gary Moore at Class 3 : 3/5 (60%) for 8.82pts (+176.4%)
  • and for Gary Moore at Class 3 from 2015-19 : 3/3 (100%) for 10.82pts (+360.7%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Darebin 4/1 BOG which was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.35pm on Thursday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.10 Sandown

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!