Posts

Stat of the Day, 18th September 2019

Tuesday's pick was...

4.00 Redcar : Star Shield @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 10/3 (Held up mid-division, headway 2f out, every chance over 1f out, ridden and kept on inside final furlong)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

1.40 Yarmouth :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Restless Rose @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 5,  Fillies Handicap for 3yo+ over 6f on Good  ground worth £3,429 to the winner...

Why?...

More details are on the way...

...but first, it's... a 1pt win bet on Restless Rose @ 3/1 BOG as was available from Sky, Hills Betfair & PP at 6.00pm on Tuesday with plenty of 11/4 knocking about too, but to see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 1.40 Yarmouth

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 17th September 2019

Monday's pick was...

7.30 Kempton : Celtic Classis @ 10/3 BOG WON at 3/1 (Tracked leader, ridden to lead inside final furlong, ran on to win by 1.25 lengths)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

4.00 Redcar :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Star Shield @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 4,  Flat handicap for 3yo+ over 1m on Good to firm ground worth £5,693 to the winner...

Why?...

This 4 yr old gelding has made the frame in five of his last six starts, winning twice and was only beaten by three quarters of a length over this course and distance last time out, 24 days ago : that was in a higher grade than today, so hopefully the drop in class will be to his (and our) advantage.

He has a win and two places from four starts at Class 4, a win and two runner-up finishes from his last three runs on good to firm, he has a win and a runner-up place from two previous visits to Redcar and was a runner-up on the only other occasion that David Nolan rode him.

His trainer David O'Meara is 38 from 151 (25.2% SR) for 70.8pts (+46.9% ROI) in Redcar handicaps at odds of 2/1 to 15/2 (where I do most of my betting), from which the following are relevant today...

  • 36/139 (28.1%) for 70.1pts (+50.4%) in races worth less than £8,000 to the winner
  • 29/92 (31.5%) for 72.7pts (+79%) in fields of 7-11 runners
  • 22/87 (25.3%) for 43.8pts (+50.3%) on Good to Firm ground
  • 16/45 (35.6%) for 42.5pts (+94.4%) with class droppers
  • 14/45 (31.1%) for 37.2pts (+82.7%) with 4 yr olds
  • 13/38 (34.2%) for 34.4pts (+90.4%) over trips of 8 to 9 furlongs
  • 11/41 (26.8%) for 20.6pts (+50.2%) at Class 4
  • and 10/46 (21.7%) for 16.6pts (+36.2%) over the last three seasons...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Star Shield @ 11/4 BOG as was available in half a dozen places at 5.45pm on Monday, but to see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 4.00 Redcar

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 16th September 2019

Saturday's pick was...

2.10 Chelmsford : Intuitive @ 3/1 BOG WON at 10/3 (Mid-division, headway and switched right over 1f out, led inside final furlong, ran on well to win by 2.5 lengths)

Monday's pick runs in the...

7.30 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Celtic Classic @ 10/3 BOG

Your first 30 days for just £1

...in a 14-runner, Class 6,  A/W handicap for 3yo over 1m4f on Polytrack worth £3,105 to the winner...

Why?...

Since the application of blinkers four starts ago, this 3 yr old gelding has enjoyed an upturn in form (and who doesn't want one of those?), finishing 1432 in those races and only beaten by a length over this trip last time when finishing strongly in what looks a stronger contest than today.

That was his first crack at today's trip, but he has already won at this grade over 1m3.5f, so I'd expect another bold effort today.

His jockey today is Rossa Ryan, who comes here in good touch with 9 winners from 46 (19.6% SR) generating 61.8pts (+134.3% ROI) over the last fortnight, including a nice 8/1 winner yesterday (Sunday) at Ffos Las and when riding for today's trainer (Paul Cole) over the last two seasons, Mr Ryan has 7 winners from 29 (24.1% SR) for 36.3pts (+125.2% ROI) profit, including...

  • 6/24 (25%) for 37pts (+154%) in handicaps
  • 6/19 (31.6%) for 20.8pts (+109.6%) at odds of 8/1 and shorter
  • 5/14 (35.7%) for 36pts (+257.1%) at Class 5/6
  • 5/12 (41.7%) for 36.8pts (+306.8%) on 3 yr olds
  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 32.6pts (+296.6%) over trips of 10 to 12 furlongs
  • 2/4 (50%) for 8.6pts (+215%) at Class 6
  • and 1/2 (50%) for 1.54pts (+77%) over this 1m4f trip

...whilst Rossa + Cole + 3yos + C5/6 hcps @ 8/1 max = 3/4 (75% SR) for 15pts (+375% ROI) with 2 winners from 3 at Class 6.

There's a good chance of our pick going off as favourite today, but whilst it's foolish to blindly back favourites, over 30% of them do win, so it's just a case (as ever) of backing the right ones! With that in mind, you could do a lot worse than backing the ones with Rossa Ryan on their backs, as his record on All-Weather favs stands at 25 from 64 (39.1% SR) and a £10 bet on each would have made you £149.30 profit at an ROI of 23.3%, including...

  • 15/33 (45.5%) for 14.33pts (+43.4%) on 2/3 yr olds
  • 12/28 (42.9%) for 15pts (+53.7%) on Polytrack
  • 11/31 (35.5%) for 5.74pts (+18.5%) at Class 6
  • 9/22 (40.9%) for 5.91pts (+26.8%) on 3 yr olds
  • and 5/11 (45.5%) for 3.16pts (+28.7%) in 3yo contests

...whilst on 2/3 yr olds at Class 6 on Polytrack, he is 3/7 (42.9% SR) 5.19pts (+74.1% ROI).

And finally, back to trainer Paul Cole, whose runners are 10 from 53 (18.9% SR) for 111.6pts (+210.6% ROI) over trips of 9.5 to 12 furlongs during the past 12 months and this include of note/relevance today...

  • 7/38 (18.4%) for 56.7pts (+149.1%) with 3 yr olds
  • 5/21 (23.8%) for 35pts (+166.8%) over trips of 1m3f to 1m4f
  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 32.6pts (+296.6%) with Rossa Ryan in the saddle
  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 31.4pts (+348.7%) at Class 6
  • and 3/12 (25%) for 79.3pts (+661.1%) on the All-Weather...

...and with 3 yr olds winning 4 of 19 (21% SR) for 31.56pts (+166.1% ROI) over trips of 11/12 furlongs...

...I'm happy to place... a 1pt win bet on Celtic Classic @ 10/3 BOG as was quite widely available at 5.10pm on Sunday with Stoke City's backers Bet365 offering a little bit more. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 7.30 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 16th September 2019

Saturday's pick was...

2.10 Chelmsford : Intuitive @ 3/1 BOG WON at 10/3 (Mid-division, headway and switched right over 1f out, led inside final furlong, ran on well to win by 2.5 lengths)

Monday's pick runs in the...

7.30 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Celtic Classic @ 10/3 BOG

...in a 14-runner, Class 6,  A/W handicap for 3yo over 1m4f on Polytrack worth £3,105 to the winner...

Why?...

Since the application of blinkers four starts ago, this 3 yr old gelding has enjoyed an upturn in form (and who doesn't want one of those?), finishing 1432 in those races and only beaten by a length over this trip last time when finishing strongly in what looks a stronger contest than today.

That was his first crack at today's trip, but he has already won at this grade over 1m3.5f, so I'd expect another bold effort today.

His jockey today is Rossa Ryan, who comes here in good touch with 9 winners from 46 (19.6% SR) generating 61.8pts (+134.3% ROI) over the last fortnight, including a nice 8/1 winner yesterday (Sunday) at Ffos Las and when riding for today's trainer (Paul Cole) over the last two seasons, Mr Ryan has 7 winners from 29 (24.1% SR) for 36.3pts (+125.2% ROI) profit, including...

  • 6/24 (25%) for 37pts (+154%) in handicaps
  • 6/19 (31.6%) for 20.8pts (+109.6%) at odds of 8/1 and shorter
  • 5/14 (35.7%) for 36pts (+257.1%) at Class 5/6
  • 5/12 (41.7%) for 36.8pts (+306.8%) on 3 yr olds
  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 32.6pts (+296.6%) over trips of 10 to 12 furlongs
  • 2/4 (50%) for 8.6pts (+215%) at Class 6
  • and 1/2 (50%) for 1.54pts (+77%) over this 1m4f trip

...whilst Rossa + Cole + 3yos + C5/6 hcps @ 8/1 max = 3/4 (75% SR) for 15pts (+375% ROI) with 2 winners from 3 at Class 6.

There's a good chance of our pick going off as favourite today, but whilst it's foolish to blindly back favourites, over 30% of them do win, so it's just a case (as ever) of backing the right ones! With that in mind, you could do a lot worse than backing the ones with Rossa Ryan on their backs, as his record on All-Weather favs stands at 25 from 64 (39.1% SR) and a £10 bet on each would have made you £149.30 profit at an ROI of 23.3%, including...

  • 15/33 (45.5%) for 14.33pts (+43.4%) on 2/3 yr olds
  • 12/28 (42.9%) for 15pts (+53.7%) on Polytrack
  • 11/31 (35.5%) for 5.74pts (+18.5%) at Class 6
  • 9/22 (40.9%) for 5.91pts (+26.8%) on 3 yr olds
  • and 5/11 (45.5%) for 3.16pts (+28.7%) in 3yo contests

...whilst on 2/3 yr olds at Class 6 on Polytrack, he is 3/7 (42.9% SR) 5.19pts (+74.1% ROI).

And finally, back to trainer Paul Cole, whose runners are 10 from 53 (18.9% SR) for 111.6pts (+210.6% ROI) over trips of 9.5 to 12 furlongs during the past 12 months and this include of note/relevance today...

  • 7/38 (18.4%) for 56.7pts (+149.1%) with 3 yr olds
  • 5/21 (23.8%) for 35pts (+166.8%) over trips of 1m3f to 1m4f
  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 32.6pts (+296.6%) with Rossa Ryan in the saddle
  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 31.4pts (+348.7%) at Class 6
  • and 3/12 (25%) for 79.3pts (+661.1%) on the All-Weather...

...and with 3 yr olds winning 4 of 19 (21% SR) for 31.56pts (+166.1% ROI) over trips of 11/12 furlongs...

...I'm happy to place... a 1pt win bet on Celtic Classic @ 10/3 BOG as was quite widely available at 5.10pm on Sunday with Stoke City's backers Bet365 offering a little bit more. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 7.30 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

SotD Update, 9th to 14th September 2019

Last Sunday I wrote..."Five straight losers (albeit three making the frame) wasn't the way I wanted to kick off the new month, but thankfully a 9/2 winner on Saturday eased the pain and turned the week's losses into a more manageable figure.

I'm sure we can recoup the half point dropped next week and then get the month going properly"...

Roll forward another 7 days and substitute the 9/2 winner for one at 10/3 and the half point for 1.67pts and it's pretty much deja vue. Once again, we found ourselves just short of making decent profits during the week before needing to be rescued on the final day.

I'll be honest and say that I'm finding it pretty tough going at present and 2 from 12 at the halfway point of the month is quite a way short of where I'd want to be, but the beauty of playing at the prices we do, means that even if lean times, one winner would make all the difference. 8 of the 12 picks this month have made the frame, so 60% of the losers have been placed and we're only 2.17pts down : this means that had just one of them held on, we'd actually be in profit.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Thankfully, as it's a daily feature, I get another chance to put things right tomorrow (Monday).

Selections & Results : 09/09/19 to 14/09/19

09/09 : Long Call @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 9/4
10/09 : B Fifty Two @ 4/1 3rd at 11/2
11/09 : Redarna @ 3/1 BOG 7th at 4/1
12/09 : Invincible Larne @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 5/1
13/09 : Benadalid @ 11/2 BOG 4th at 7/2 
14/09 : Intuitive @ 3/1 BOG WON at 10/3

09/09/19 to 14/09/19 :
1 winning bet from 6 = 16.66% SR
P/L: -1.67pts

September 2019 :
2 winners from 12 = 16.66% SR
P/L: -2.17pts
ROI = -18.08%

2019 to date :
52 winners from 203= 25.62% SR
P/L: +51.76pts
ROI = +25.50%

Overall:
642 winners from 2379 = 26.99% S.R
P/L: +548.17pts
ROI: +23.04%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is
here.
Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are
now available here.
Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here
And here is the full story from 2017.

2018 was the latest full year for SotD and the yearly review is right here

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take the plunge and get involved right now?

Click here for more details.

Stat of the Day, 14th September 2019

Friday's pick was...

6.00 Doncaster : Benadalid @ 11/2 BOG 4th at 7/2 (Broke well, soon steadied and held up, pushed along and progress 2f out, ridden and weakened inside final furlong)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

2.10 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Intuitive @ 3/1 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 3,  A/W handicap for 3yo over 6f on Polytrack worth £9,704 to the winner...

Why?...

This 3 yr old gelding has finishes 1132 in his four A/W runs to date and was only beaten by a length in a higher grade over this course and distance when last seen seven and a half weeks ago.

His trainer, James Tate has already had a couple of winners this week (wish I had!) and he is 48 from 116 (41.4% SR) for 72.7pts (+62.7% ROI) since the start of 2016 with horses sent off at 5/1 or shorter in A/W handicaps over trips shorter than 1m2f, including...

  • 28/62 (45.2%) for 49.6pts (+79.9%) since the start of 2018
  • 16/37 (43.2%) for 24.9pts (+67.3%) during August to October
  • 12/30 (40%) for 23.1pts (+77%) here at Chelmsford
  • and 8/18 (44.4%) for 20.8pts (+115.5%) from those dropping down a class

...with 5 winners from 7 (71.4% SR) producing 10pts (+143.1% ROI) here at Chelmsford during August to October in 2018/19...

...whilst more generally here at Chelmsford, James' handicappers sent off at 6/1 and shorter are 19/53 (35.9% SR) for 39.1pts (+73.7% ROI) including...

  • 16/40 (40%) for44.4pts (+111%) in fields of 6-11 runners
  • 9/21 (42.9%) for 21.7pts (+103.5%) this year
  • 9/18 (50%) for 19pts (+105.6%) during August to October
  • and 4/7 (57.1%) for 11.2pts (+159.8%) over this 6f course and distance...

...and in 2019 in fields of 6-11 runners, those horses above are 8 from 16 (50% SR) for 25.2pts (+157.7% ROI).

The sharper-eyed amongst you (not sure if many of you actually read my waffle) might notice that both of the above sets of data also apply to James Tate's runner (Attainment) in the 4.30 race here at Chelmsford, too, but of the two for this column...

...I'm going with... a 1pt win bet on Intuitive @ 3/1 BOG as was quite widely available at 5.25pm on Friday, but to see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.10 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 13th September 2019

Thursday's pick was...

6.20 Chelmsford : Invincible Larne @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 5/1 (Led, headed 2f out, ridden over 1f out, no extra)

Friday's pick runs in the...

6.00 Doncaster :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Benadalid @ 11/2 BOG

...in a 6-runner, Class 3,  Classified Stakes for 3yo+ over 1m2f on Good To Firm worth £9,338 to the winner...

Why?...

This 4 yr old gelding has 2 wins and a place from his last four outings, starting with a course and distance win here on Town Moor back in July and culminating in a win under today's jockey, Dan Tudhope, in Class 3 handicap over this trip at Ripon 17 days ago.

This recent run of form boosts his career record to include the following of relevance today...

  • 4 wins and 3 places from 9 in fields of 6-8 runners
  • 2 wins and 3 places from 6 over 1m2f/1m2.5f
  • 1 win and 1 place from 3 visits to Doncaster
  • and a 1/1 return under today's jockey, Dan Tudhope...

...who has won 13 of 81 (16.1% SR) races at Classes 2 to 4 here at Doncaster over the past four seasons generating profits of 59.6pts at an ROI of 73.6%.

Dan is definitely more active and more well known on the racing scene than trainer Chris Fairhurst, but from a small string of horses he has done well when travelling the 90 minutes south from his Middleham base with 6 winners from 27 (22.2% SR) producing profits of 57.6pts (+213.4% RO) here at Doncaster over the past five seasons, from which...

  • those with less than 3 weeks rest since they last ran are 6/12 (50%) for 72.62pts (+605.2%)
  • 3 to 6 yr olds are 5/20 (25%) for 26.58pts (+132.9%)
  • those racing in fields of just 4-7 runners are 4/8 (50%) for 21.81pts (+272.6%)
  • those sent off shorter than 7/1 are 3/5 (60%) for 10.03pts (+200.6%)
  • Class 3 runners are 2/6 (33.3%) for 10.89pts (+181.4%)
  • in 2019, they are 2/5 (40%) for 7.93pts (+158.6%)
  • and those competing for prizes of £8-10k are 2/2 (100%) for 14.89pts (+744.5%)...

...whilst 3-6 yr olds in fields of 4-7 runners after less than 3 weeks rest are 4 from 7 (57.1%) for 22.81pts (+325.9% ROI) and these include 3/3 at sub-7/1 odds, 2/3 this year, 2/2 at Class 3 and 2/2 in races worth £8-10k...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Benadalid @ 11/2 BOG as was quite widely available at 5.55pm on Thursday. If you can't get on, there's plenty of 5/1 knocking about too and to see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.00 Doncaster

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 12th September 2019

Wednesday's pick was...

4.30 Carlisle : Redarna @ 3/1 BOG 7th at 4/1 (Chased leader, ridden over 1f out, no extra)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

6.20 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Invincible Larne @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap for 3yo over 6f on Polytrack worth £5,111 to the winner...

Why?...

This 3yo colt got off the mark last time out 36 days ago at Yarmouth, when pulling clear by some four lengths over 5 furlongs, suggesting that today's extra furlong should be within his capability. Winning jockey Pat Cosgrave keeps the ride today after that effort last time.

It's been pretty quiet at trainer Mick Quinn's yard of late with just 11 runners over the last seven weeks, but a return of 3 winners (27.3% SR) and 6.47pts (+58.8% ROI) suggests there are few (if any) problems there. Of that 3/11 return, those runners are 2/8 in handicaps, 2/6 over 6f and 2/4 from his 3 yr olds.

He also doesn't send many out to run on the All-Weather, but since the start of 2017, his Class 5 A/W handicappers are 5 from 32 (15.6% SR) for 56.75pts profit at an ROI of 177.4%. Now that's not a large sample size, of course, but if you consider how he got those five winners, you might think that our pick is well suited/placed to run here today, as from that 5/32 record, they are...

  • 5/25 (20%) for 63.75pts (+255%) on Polytrack
  • 5/22 (22.7%) for 66.75pts (+303.4%) in fields of 9 or more runners
  • 4/12 (33.3%) for 36pts (+300%) from male runners
  • 3/16 (18.75%) for 48.4pts (+302.7%) from his 3 yr olds
  • 3/11 (27.3%) for 23.6pts (+214.5%) here at Chelmsford
  • and 1/2 (50%) for 11.4pts (+557%) with Pat Cosgrave in the saddle...

...and males in 9+ runner fields on poly are 4/10 (40% SR) for 37.95pts (+379.5% ROI), including 3/6 (50%) here at Chelmsford, 2/4 (50%) from 3yrs olds and 1/1 (100%) using Pat Cosgrave...

...who himself is in decent touch right now, having ridden 5 winners from 18 (27.8% SR) over the last dozen days, including 5 from 11 (45.5% SR) for 6.1pts (+55.5% ROI) on fancied (ie 4/1 and shorter) runners, from which...

  • 4/7 (57.1%) for 8.7pts (+124.3%) in fields of 7-12 runners
  • 2/5 (40%) for 4.17pts (+83.4%) on the A/W (all on Poly)
  • 2/5 (40%) for 1.53pts (+30.6%) at Class 5
  • and 2/2 (100%) for 7.94pts (+397%) over a 6f trip...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Invincible Larne @ 7/2 BOG as was available from Bet365 at 6.30pm on Wednesday. If you can't get on, there's plenty of 11/4 knocking about and to see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.20 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 11th September 2019

Tuesday's pick was...

4.00 Catterick : B Fifty Two @ 4/1 3rd at 11/2 (Tracked leaders, effort well over 1f out, kept on same pace)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

4.30 Carlisle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Redarna @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 3, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m on Good/Good to Soft ground worth £9,704 to the winner...

Why?...

This 5 yr old gelding has won six of his last ten outings and comes here seeking a hat-trick after wins over 7f at Ascot in July and then over this very course and distance last month.

Those last two runs/wins have moved his record in Flat handicaps on to a very impressive 8/21 (38.1% SR) for 62.1pts (+295.8% ROI) profit, with the following conditions of relevance today...

  • 8/17 after 1-6 weeks rest
  • 7/14 in fields of 8-13 runners
  • 6/14 at odds shorter than 7/1
  • 6/13 on Good/Good to Soft
  • 5/10 over trips of 7.5/8 furlongs
  • 4/8 in 2019
  • 4/6 wearing cheekpieces
  • 3/12 here at Carlisle
  • 3/9 going right handed
  • 3/6 under jockey James Sullivan
  • 2/5 over course and distance
  • and 1/1 at Class 3 (two starts ago)

...and at sub-7/1 odds in 8-14 runner races on Good/Good to Soft after 1-6 weeks rest, he is 5 from 8 (62.5% SR) for 25.9pts (+323.9% ROI)...

He is trained by Dianne Sayer, who seems to be on a good run here at Carlisle of late, especially with her handicappers racing over 7-9 furlongs at odds of 7/1 and shorter, as these beasts are 5/7 (71.4% SR) for 20.76pts (+296.6% ROI) this year alone including 3/4 (75%) for 12.02pts (+300.5%) from LTO winners.

That LTO winners stat isn't too surprising, though, when you consider that since 2014 at odds of Evens to 7/1, Dianne's handicappers who won LTO are 20 from 65 (30.8% SR) for 15.1pts (+23.2% ROI) profit, from which there are a myriad of profitable/relevant angles at play today : here's just a baker's dozen of them!

  • 17/47 (36.2%) for 24.1pts (+51.3%) from male runners
  • 16/42 (38.1%) for 26.8pts (+63.9%) on Good/Good to Soft ground
  • 15/42 (35.7%) for 15.9pts (+37.9%) from 5-8 yr olds
  • 9/20 (45%) for 15.16pts (+75.8%) during August to October
  • 8/23 (34.8%) for 9.4pts (+40.9%) since the start of 2018
  • 7/17 (41.2%) for 6.72pts (+39.5%) with 1 previous C&D win
  • 7/16 (43.8%) for 6.2pts (+38.8%) won over C&D LTO
  • 5/12 (41.7%) for 4.02pts (+33.5%) at Class 3
  • 5/14 (35.7%) for 9.34pts (+66.8%) on the Flat
  • 4/7 (57.1%) for 12.64pts (+180.6%) over 7.5 to 9 furlongs
  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 9.92pts (+110.2%) here at Carlisle
  • 4/12 (33.3%) for 6.73pts (+56%) this year
  • and 3 from 6 (50%) for 5.43pts (+90.4%) in September

To form a composite from the above would dilute the dataset too much, but you could consider just backing 5-8 yr old males on Good/Good to Soft ground, as they are 12/20 (60% SR) for 28.9pts (+144.5% ROI), including 3 wins from 4 (75%) for 6.86pts (+171.4%) from those who won over course and distance last time out...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Redarna @ 3/1 BOG as was available from SkyBet along with Betfair/Paddy Power at 5.45pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.30 Carlisle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 10th September 2019

Monday's pick was...

3.50 Brighton : Long Call @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 9/4 (Slowly away in rear, pushed along over 2f out, ridden over 1f out, stayed on inside final furlong, nearest finish)

Tueday's pick runs in the...

4.00 Catterick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

B Fifty Two @ 4/1 non-BOG until morning

...in a 12-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 6f on Good to Firm ground worth £3,105 to the winner...

Why?...

This "boy" might be 10 yrs old now, so he's probably more of an "old lad", but recent events have suggested there's still plenty of life left in him yet. He has finished in the first three home in each of his last six starts, winning twice (inc LTO 7 days over over this course and distance under today's jockey) and suffering two very narrow defeats along the way.

He's only up 2lbs for his latest effort here, but does drop down a class at a venue he likes. He has certainly been around the block a few times, but he's not averse to picking prize money up, having made the frame in 25 of 83 (30%) of his starts on the Flat : a decent return at this level and includes 9 winners (10.84% SR).

Of note amongst his 9 wins and 16 further places are...

  • 8 + 14 within 30 days of his last run and 6 + 14 in handicaps
  • 6 + 13 with a tongue tie and 6 + 3 going left handed
  • 4 + 10 over a 6f trip and 4 + 1 at odds of 4/1 and shorter
  • 2 + 6 under jockey Jane Elliott and 2 + 3 here at Catterick
  • and 2 + 3 over course and distance

The above-mentioned jockey Jane Elliott doesn't get too many rides to be honest, but she has done well here at this track winning 5 of 24 (20.8% SR) for 16.5pts (+68.7% ROI) profit, including...

  • 5/13 (38.5%) for 27.5pts (+211.5%) at odds of 10/1 and shorter
  • 4/20 (20%) for 15.7pts (+78.5%) in handicaps
  • 4/15 (26.7%) for 18.6pts (+124%) at Class 6
  • 3/10 (30%) for 20.24 (+202.4%) over this 6f C&D
  • and 2/4 (50%) for 6.26pts (+156.4%) on Good to Firm ground

...whilst in Class 6 handicaps at 10/1 and shorter, Jane is 3/6 (50% SR) for 22.8pts (+380% ROI) here at Catterick, including 2/4 over this 6f C&D and 1/1 on Good to Firm.

And finally, as this horse was a winner LTO just a week ago, you might (or might not, of course) be interested to know that today's trainer Marjorie Fife is 7 from 31 (22.6% SR) for 34.1pts (+110.1% ROI) in Flat handicaps over the last four seasons with LTO winners turned back out after less than three weeks rest and these runners include...

  • 6/17 (35.3%) for 43.5pts (+256.1%) during July to September
  • 5/15 (33.3%) for 7.93pts (+52.8%) at odds of 5/1 and shorter
  • and 3/9 (33.3%) for 39.2pts (+435.6%) over a 6f trip...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on B Fifty Two @ 4/1 non-BOG until morning as was available from Betfair/Paddy Power at 6.15pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.00 Catterick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 9th September 2019

Saturday's pick was...

4.25 Kempton : Streamline @ 11/4 BOG WON at 9/2 (Chased leaders, went 2nd over 1f out, ran on to lead final 100 yards, won going away)

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.50 Brighton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Long Call @ 4/1 BOG

...in an 8-runner (was 9), Class 5, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m2f on Good To Firm worth £3,429 to the winner...

Why?...

Over the last year, this 6 yr old gelding has finished on the first three home on four of six occasions, winning twice, including a course and distance success here LTO some 32 days ago under today's jockey, pulling clear as the finish unfolded, yet is only raised 2lbs for that effort, but does drop down in class.

To date he has 2 wins and 3 places from 6 runs on Good to Firm ground, 2 wins and a place from 3 attempts at this 10f trip, he's 1 from 1 here at Brighton (C&D LTO) and 1 from 1 under jockey Tom Marquand (also C&D LTO).

His trainer, Tony Carroll, is 4 from 13 (30.8%) over the past week and jockey Tom is 6 from 29 (20.7%) in the same period, whilst together they are 11/45 (24.4% SR) for 56.5pts (+125.7% ROI) in Flat handicaps this season, including 5/13 (38.5%) for 28.9pts (+222.4%) here at Brighton.

More longer-term, Tony's Flat handicappers racing over 6f to 1m2f here at Brighton are 39/204 (19.1% SR) for 101.2pts (+49.6% ROI) profit over the last six seasons, including...

  • 34/164 (20.7%) for 92.6pts (+56.5%) from males
  • 35/148 (23.7%) for 147.9pts (+99.9%) at odds of 9/4 to 14/1
  • 22/100 (22%) for 48.7pts (+48.7%) on Good to Firm
  • 10/49 (20.4%) for 33.2pts (+67.8%) in 2019
  • 8/38 (21%) for 13.5pts (+35.6%) from those dropping down a class
  • 10/35 (28.6%) for 20.8pts (+59.4%) in September
  • 11/33 (33.3%) for 46.3pts (+140.2%) at Class 5
  • 6/28 (21.4%) for 15.1pts (+54%) from 6 yr olds
  • and 5/24 (20.8%) for 20.4pts (+85.1%) with Tom Marquand in the saddle

...from which...males at 9/4 to 14/1 on Good to Firm are 16/62 (25.8% SR) for 68.2pts (+110% ROI) and this includes 8/26 (30.8%) this year, 4/15 (26.7%) using Tom Marquand and 3/8 (37.5% SR) for 26.7pts (+333.3%) for Tom this year.

And finally for today, you might be interested to read that Tony Carroll's LTO C&D winners are 9 from 14 (64.3% SR) for 21pts (+150% ROI) at odds of 5/1 and shorter in UK handicaps since the start of 2018, including 2/2 for 5.94pts here at Brighton (and 3 of the 5 losers still made the frame!)...

...all pointing towards... a 1pt win bet on Long Call @ 4/1 BOG as was widely available at 5.10pm on Sunday, although Bet365 were offering an extra half point at that time. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.50 Brighton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 9th September 2019

Saturday's pick was...

4.25 Kempton : Streamline @ 11/4 BOG WON at 9/2 (Chased leaders, went 2nd over 1f out, ran on to lead final 100 yards, won going away)

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.50 Brighton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Long Call @ 4/1 BOG

...in an 8-runner (was 9), Class 5, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m2f on Good To Firm worth £3,429 to the winner...

Why?...

Over the last year, this 6 yr old gelding has finished on the first three home on four of six occasions, winning twice, including a course and distance success here LTO some 32 days ago under today's jockey, pulling clear as the finish unfolded, yet is only raised 2lbs for that effort, but does drop down in class.

To date he has 2 wins and 3 places from 6 runs on Good to Firm ground, 2 wins and a place from 3 attempts at this 10f trip, he's 1 from 1 here at Brighton (C&D LTO) and 1 from 1 under jockey Tom Marquand (also C&D LTO).

His trainer, Tony Carroll, is 4 from 13 (30.8%) over the past week and jockey Tom is 6 from 29 (20.7%) in the same period, whilst together they are 11/45 (24.4% SR) for 56.5pts (+125.7% ROI) in Flat handicaps this season, including 5/13 (38.5%) for 28.9pts (+222.4%) here at Brighton.

More longer-term, Tony's Flat handicappers racing over 6f to 1m2f here at Brighton are 39/204 (19.1% SR) for 101.2pts (+49.6% ROI) profit over the last six seasons, including...

  • 34/164 (20.7%) for 92.6pts (+56.5%) from males
  • 35/148 (23.7%) for 147.9pts (+99.9%) at odds of 9/4 to 14/1
  • 22/100 (22%) for 48.7pts (+48.7%) on Good to Firm
  • 10/49 (20.4%) for 33.2pts (+67.8%) in 2019
  • 8/38 (21%) for 13.5pts (+35.6%) from those dropping down a class
  • 10/35 (28.6%) for 20.8pts (+59.4%) in September
  • 11/33 (33.3%) for 46.3pts (+140.2%) at Class 5
  • 6/28 (21.4%) for 15.1pts (+54%) from 6 yr olds
  • and 5/24 (20.8%) for 20.4pts (+85.1%) with Tom Marquand in the saddle

...from which...males at 9/4 to 14/1 on Good to Firm are 16/62 (25.8% SR) for 68.2pts (+110% ROI) and this includes 8/26 (30.8%) this year, 4/15 (26.7%) using Tom Marquand and 3/8 (37.5% SR) for 26.7pts (+333.3%) for Tom this year.

And finally for today, you might be interested to read that Tony Carroll's LTO C&D winners are 9 from 14 (64.3% SR) for 21pts (+150% ROI) at odds of 5/1 and shorter in UK handicaps since the start of 2018, including 2/2 for 5.94pts here at Brighton (and 3 of the 5 losers still made the frame!)...

...all pointing towards... a 1pt win bet on Long Call @ 4/1 BOG as was widely available at 5.10pm on Sunday, although Bet365 were offering an extra half point at that time. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.50 Brighton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

SotD Update, 2nd to 7th September 2019

Five straight losers (albeit three making the frame) wasn't the way I wanted to kick off the new month, but thankfully a 9/2 winner on Saturday eased the pain and turned the week's losses into a more manageable figure.

I'm sure we can recoup the half point dropped next week and then get the month going properly.

Selections & Results : 02/09/19 to 07/09/19

02/09 : Melody of Scotland @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 5/2
03/09 : War Eagle @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 2/1
04/09 : Demi Sang @ 3/1 BOG 5th at 7/2
05/09 : You're Hired @ 5/1 BOG 2nd at 9/2
06/09 : Wild Edric @ 4/1 BOG 10th at 11/4 
07/09 : Streamline @ 11/4 BOG WON at 9/2

02/09/19 to 07/09/19 :
1 winning bet from 6 = 16.66% SR
P/L: -0.50pts

September 2019 :
1 winner from 6 = 16.66% SR
P/L: -0.50pts
ROI = -8.33%

2019 to date :
51 winners from 197= 25.89% SR
P/L: +53.43pts
ROI = +27.12%

Overall:
641 winners from 2373 = 27.01% S.R
P/L: +549.83pts
ROI: +23.17%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is
here.
Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are
now available here.
Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here
And here is the full story from 2017.

2018 was the latest full year for SotD and the yearly review is right here

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take the plunge and get involved right now?

Click here for more details.

Stat of the Day, 7th September 2019

Friday's pick was...

3.30 Haydock : Wild Edric @ 4/1 BOG 10th at 11/4 (Tracked leaders, ridden over 1f out, weakened final furlong)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

4.25 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Streamline @ 11/4 BOG

...in the 7-runner, Group 3, Sun Racing Sirenia Stakes for 2yo over 6f on Standard To Slow Polytrack worth £34,026 to the winner...

Why?...

This juvenile colt has won two of three starts so far, including 1 from 2 under today's jockey, Hector Crouch and a win on his only previous run on this track. He was a decent third last time out (14 days ago) when third in a Listed contest looking very much like he needed/wanted today's extra furlong.

His trainer, Clive Cox, is 6 from 27 (22.2% SR) over the past fortnight including 5 from 10 (50%) from his 2yr olds, who are having a very good year overall, winning 17 of 76 (22.4% SR) for 65pts (+85.5% ROI) profit, including...

  • 16/47 (34%) for 19.3pts (41%) at odds shorter than 8/1
  • 7/39 (18%) for 68.2pts (+174.9%) over a 6f trip
  • 8/29 (27.6%) for 8.9pts (+30.7%) in fields of 5-8 runners
  • 7/27 (25.9%) for 81.6pts (+302.2%) using jockey Hector Crouch
  • 2/9 (22.2%) for 1.4pts (+15.4%) at Class 1
  • 2/5 (40%) for 2.82pts (+56.4%) this month alone
  • and 2/5 (40%) for 1.8pts (+36%) on Polytrack

...whilst sub-8/1 runners racing over 6f are 6 from 24 (25% SR) for 8.5pts (+35.5% ROI)...

Our pick is by Due Diligence, a first year sire whose offspring have already won 19 of 96 (19.8% SR) contests, hitting the ground running and generating 37.6pts profit at an ROI of 39.2%, from which...

  • those last seen 11-20 days earlier are 6/30 (20%) for 31.25pts (+104.2%)
  • and A/W runners are 3/9 (33.3%) for 2.6pts (+28.8%)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Streamline @ 11/4 BOG as was widely available at 6.15pm on Friday (considerably better price at Bet365 if you're quick/lucky). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.25 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 6th September 2019

Thursday's pick was...

4.40 Salisbury : You're Hired @ 5/1 BOG 2nd at 9/2 (Tracked leader, pushed along over 2f out, ridden and switched left over 1f out, stayed on to go 2nd towards finish)

Friday's pick runs in the...

3.30 Haydock :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Wild Edric @ 4/1 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 5f on Soft ground worth £6,469 to the winner...

Why?...

This 3 yr old gelding has finished 122 in his last three starts, beaten by just a head when collared late on at Chester LTO 6 days ago having possibly had to do too much to get in front from a poor-ish draw. Running off the same mark today, it is hoped that a return to a straight 5f wearing first-time blinkers will enough to eke out a little bit from him today.

To date, his career stats under today's conditions include...

  • 3 wins and 2 places from 8 at class 4
  • 2 wins and a place from 3 under jockey Richard Kingscote
  • 2 wins and a place from 3 carrying 9st 2lbs
  • 1 from 1 within a week of his last run
  • and 1 from 1 on soft ground

He's trained by Tom Dascombe and a quick glance at the Racecards tells you that both trainer and jockey have good records at this venue and as Richard is Tom's main jockey, it doesn't take a great leap of faith to guess that as a partnership, they've done well here too.

I think that's pretty much common knowledge, so I won't bore you by drilling down into those details, we can just take it as read that they go well here individually and as a team.

Tom's horses are going well enough right now, winning 6 of 30 (20% SR) over the past fortnight, but that's no real surprise as Tom's one of the trainers included in my "Late Season" trainers to watch. In Tom's case, I look for 2-4 yr old Flat handicappers priced at 15/8 to 9/1 (I don't bet outside those prices very often) during August to October.

Over the last four seasons, Tom has so far supplied me with 161 qualifiers, bearing 39 winners (24.2% SR) and 100.7pts (+62.5% ROI) profit, from which the following are relevant today...

  • 37/138 (26.8%) for 115.4pts (+86.3%) off a mark (OR) of 65-100
  • 20/81 (24.7%) for 59.3pts (+73.2%) ridden by Richard Kingscote (who inevitably pops up)
  • 11/48 (22.9%) for 22.4pts (+46.7%) at Class 4
  • 13/34 (38.2%) for 56.6pts (+166.4%) here at Haydock
  • 7/23 (30.4%) for 26.7pts (+116.2%) over the minimum 5f trip
  • and 5 from 20 (25%) for 9.1pts (+45.5%) this year...

...the figures for 2019 suggest they're still winning, but the market is slowly cottoning on to this angle, but there was still enough juice in the price available...

...for me to suggest... a 1pt win bet on Wild Edric @ 4/1 BOG as offered by Coral & Ladbrokes at 5.45pm on Thursday (and also at BF/PP but non-BOG until 8.00am). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.30 Haydock

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!