Posts

Stat of the Day, 16th January 2019

Tuesday's Pick was...

3.20 Newcastle : Mumgos Debut @ 5/2 BOG WON at 5/2 (Tracked leader, led 2 out, ridden out to win by 0.75 lengths)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

2.25 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Kodiline @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W Handicap over 7f on polytrack worth £5531 to the winner...

Why?

OK, big day today as I attempt to celebrate my 50th birthday with an SotD-record equalling (so I'm informed) sixth winner on the bounce via a 5 yr old gelding with two wins from his last five outings including a course and distance success here 11 days ago when ridden by today's jockey Katherine Begley (Glenister) for the first time.

Kathy (excuse the familiarity) is 3 from 9 (33.3% SR) for 15.8pts (+175.6% ROI) on trainer David Evans' runners in the last four weeks with another 3 of those runners making the frame, including 3 winners from 7 (42.9%) for 17.8pts (+254.3%) at odds of 8/1 and shorter from which the partnership is 2 from 4 (50%) for 12.73pts (+318.1%) over this 7f trip.

Meanwhile (and from a larger dataset), David Evans' runners sent off at odds of 10/1 and shorter in A/W handicaps here at Lingfield are 23 from 117 (19.7% SR) for 34.5pts (+29.5% ROI) and with today's runner/contest firmly in mind, those 117 runners are...

  • 18/88 (20.5%) for 41.6pts (+47.2%) as 3-6 yr olds
  • 18/73 (24.7%) for 47.1pts (+64.5%) off a mark (OR) of 56-80
  • 13/61 (21.3%) for 43.6pts (+71.5%) over 7-10 furlongs
  • 16/60 (26.7%) for 58pts (+96.7%) 11-25 days after their last run
  • 15/56 (26.8%) for 48.7pts (+87%) in fields of 8-10 runners
  • 10/31 (32.3%) for 40.7pts (+131.4%) in January
  • and 5/22 (22.7%) for 14.6pts (+66.4%) over this 7f C&D

And if you wanted a composite from the above, you could try...3-6 yr olds off marks of 56-80 over 7-10f running 6-25 dslr for 9 winners from 19 (47.4% SR) and 65.6pts (+345.4% ROI) profit which include's Kodiline's win LTO and also...

  • with 8-13 runners : 9/15 (60%) for 69.6pts (+464.1%)
  • in January : 6/11 (54.6%) for 39.9pts (+362.3%)
  • 8-13 runners in Jan : 6/8 (75%) for 42.9pts (+535.6%)
  • over 7f : 3/7 (42.9%) for 21.7pts (+309.7%)
  • 8-13 runners over 7f : 3/6 (50%) for 22.7pts (+378%)
  • over 7f in Jan : 2/3 (66.6%) for 14.3pts (+476.5%)
  • and 8-13 runners over 7f in Jan : also 2/3 (66.6%) for 14.3pts (+476.5%)

...giving us a 1pt win bet on Kodiline @ 4/1 BOG as was offered by Betfair and Ladbrokes at 4.40pm on Tuesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.25 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 15th January 2019

Monday's Pick was...

4.00 Fontwell : Sky Full of Stars @ 9/2 BOG WON at 10/3 (Chased leaders, 2nd before 4 out, led before next, driven out)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

3.20 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Mumgos Debut @ 5/2 BOG

...in a 5-runner, Class 4, 5yo+ Handicap Chase over 2m½f on Good To Soft ground worth £4614 to the winner...

Why?

A little shorter in price than I normally aim at, but only five runners are set to go to post and this one comes here off the back of a win at Ayr on soft ground 13 days ago. Now running at the same class and trip off the same mark (105) and under the same jockey (Derek Fox), I see no reason why he wouldn't be involved in the shake-up once again.

His record in handicap chases stands at 6 from 29 (20.7% SR) for 9.78pts (+33.7% ROI) profit and here are some of the ways (all relevant today), he got those wins...

  • all 6 came from 24 (25%) runs wearing a tongue tie for 14.78pts (+61.6%)
  • 5/19 (26.3%) for 17.11pts (+90.1%) off a mark (OR) greater than 95
  • 4/13 (30.8%) for 15.16pts (+116.6%) after less than 3 weeks rest
  • 4/20 (20%) for 8.08pts (+40.4%) at Class 4
  • 3/5 (60%) for 3.42pts (+68.4%) when sent off as favourite
  • 3/11 (27.3%) for 2.28pts (+20.7%) under Derek Fox
  • 2/2 (100%) for 15.47pts (+773.5%) on Good to Soft ground
  • and 2/10 920%) for 1.64pts (+16.4%) over this 2m½f trip

In addition to these stats, his form in 5 runs here at Newcastle reads 22221 and from the above... at Class 4 off a mark north of 95 wearing a tongue tie with less than 3 weeks rest = 2 from 4 (50% SR) for 13.47pts (+336.% ROI).

Over the last 9 months, his trainer Lucinda Russell has had 6 winners from 16 (37.5% SR) on the NH track here at Newcastle and these have generated 11.64pts profit at an ROI of 72.8%, including the following of note today...

  • in handicaps : 5/14 (35.7%) for 10.99pts (+78.5%)
  • males : 5/13 (38.5%) for 12.03pts (+92.5%)
  • prizes of £4k-£8k : 5/13 (38.5%) for 11.39pts (+87.6%)
  • shorter than 13/2 SP : 6/11 (54.5%) for 16.64pts (+151.3%)
  • Class 4 : 3/7 (42.9%) for 11.35pts (+162.2%)
  • Derek Fox : 4/6 (66.6%) for 15.59pts (+259.9%)
  • and over this 2m½f trip : 2/5 (40%) for 10.7pts (+214%)

...whilst from the above... male handicappers sent off at 6/1 and shorter tilting at a prize of £4k to £8k are 3/6 (50% SR) for 13.13pts (+218.9% ROI), from which they are 2/4 at Class 4, 2/3 under Derek Fox, 2/3 over this 2m½f trip and 2 from 2 under the jockey/class/distance combo!

And finally (!) for today, it's worth noting that in UK Class 4 handicap chases over 2m/2m½f on good to soft ground since 2014 (definitely a niche angle!), males running at the same class as an LTO hcp chase win in the previous 3 weeks are 9 from 19 (47.4% SR) for 22.5pts (+118.6% ROI)...

...giving us a 1pt win bet on Mumgos Debut @ 5/2 BOG as was offered by Betfair and Paddy Power at 5.40pm on Monday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.20 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 14th January 2019

Saturday's Pick was...

6.30 Newcastle : Athollblair Boy @ 3/1 BOG WON at 2/1 (Held up in rear, headway over 1f out, pushed along to lead inside final furlong, idled towards finish, just held on by a short head)

Monday's pick runs in the...

4.00 Fontwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Sky Full of Stars @ 9/2 BOG

Your first 30 days for just £1

...in an 11-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ Handicap Hurdle over 2m1½f on Good To Soft ground worth £3119 to the winner...

Why?

This 9 yr old gelding is another one who's hardly prolific, having not won a race in just over a year, but since moving to Chris Gordon's yard he has raced 3 times (all here at Fontwell and all under today's jockey Tom Cannon) and has made the frame twice : once over fences and once over hurdles.

He now runs off a lower mark than his last win (at Ayr back in Jan '18) and now seeks to improve his handler's already decent record at this venue, particularly in handicap hurdle contests where Chris's runners are 38/222 (17.1% SR) for 221.3pts profit at an ROI of 99.7% from blindly backing them since 2010. Of course, that approach isn't for everyone, but it produce several interesting/profitable angles including...

  • 5-9 yr olds : 37/202 (18.3%) for 234.8pts (+116.3%)
  • males : 30/173 (17.3%) for 198.9pts (+115%)
  • at 6/4 to 10/1 : 28/140 920%) for 40.3pts (+28.8%)
  • 6-30 days since last run : 29/132 (22%) for 189.8pts (+143.8%)
  • ridden by Tom Cannon : 25/127 (19.7%) for 39.5pts (+84.9%)
  • off a mark of 90-110 : 24/125 (19.2%) for 221.1pts (+176.9%)
  • Class 5 : 19/104 (18.3%) for 85.4pts (+82.1%)
  • at 2m1½f to 2m2½f : 7/56 (12.5%) for 30.2pts (+53.9%)
  • and over the last 5 years at 6/4 to 5/1 : 13/43 (30.2%) for 13pts (+30.2%)

...and from the above... 5-9yo males @ 6/4-9/1 @ 6-20 dslr like today's runner = 13/37 (35.1% SR) for 44.5pts (+120.3% ROI), from which...

  • Tom Cannon is 11/30 (36.7%) for 44.5pts (+148.3%)
  • OR 90-110 = 7/19 (36.8%) for 24.2pts (+127.3%)
  • Class 5 = 5/16 (31.25%) for 22.7pts (+141.7%)
  • Tom Cannon + OR 90-110 = 6/16 (37.5%) for 24.6pts (+153.7%)
  • Tom Cannon + Class 5 = 5/12 (41.7%) for 26.7pts (+222.3%)
  • Class 5 + OR 90-110 = 2/8 (25%) for 2.46pts (+30.7%)
  • and Tom Cannon + OR 90-110 + Class 5 = 2/6 (33.3%) for 4.46pts (+74.3%)

...giving us a 1pt win bet on Sky Full of Stars @ 9/2 BOG as was offered by Betfair and Paddy Power at 5.30pm on Sunday evening with plenty of 4/1 BOG offered elsewhere. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.00 Fontwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 14th January 2019

Saturday's Pick was...

6.30 Newcastle : Athollblair Boy @ 3/1 BOG WON at 2/1 (Held up in rear, headway over 1f out, pushed along to lead inside final furlong, idled towards finish, just held on by a short head)

Monday's pick runs in the...

4.00 Fontwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Sky Full of Stars @ 9/2 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ Handicap Hurdle over 2m1½f on Good To Soft ground worth £3119 to the winner...

Why?

This 9 yr old gelding is another one who's hardly prolific, having not won a race in just over a year, but since moving to Chris Gordon's yard he has raced 3 times (all here at Fontwell and all under today's jockey Tom Cannon) and has made the frame twice : once over fences and once over hurdles.

He now runs off a lower mark than his last win (at Ayr back in Jan '18) and now seeks to improve his handler's already decent record at this venue, particularly in handicap hurdle contests where Chris's runners are 38/222 (17.1% SR) for 221.3pts profit at an ROI of 99.7% from blindly backing them since 2010. Of course, that approach isn't for everyone, but it produce several interesting/profitable angles including...

  • 5-9 yr olds : 37/202 (18.3%) for 234.8pts (+116.3%)
  • males : 30/173 (17.3%) for 198.9pts (+115%)
  • at 6/4 to 10/1 : 28/140 920%) for 40.3pts (+28.8%)
  • 6-30 days since last run : 29/132 (22%) for 189.8pts (+143.8%)
  • ridden by Tom Cannon : 25/127 (19.7%) for 39.5pts (+84.9%)
  • off a mark of 90-110 : 24/125 (19.2%) for 221.1pts (+176.9%)
  • Class 5 : 19/104 (18.3%) for 85.4pts (+82.1%)
  • at 2m1½f to 2m2½f : 7/56 (12.5%) for 30.2pts (+53.9%)
  • and over the last 5 years at 6/4 to 5/1 : 13/43 (30.2%) for 13pts (+30.2%)

...and from the above... 5-9yo males @ 6/4-9/1 @ 6-20 dslr like today's runner = 13/37 (35.1% SR) for 44.5pts (+120.3% ROI), from which...

  • Tom Cannon is 11/30 (36.7%) for 44.5pts (+148.3%)
  • OR 90-110 = 7/19 (36.8%) for 24.2pts (+127.3%)
  • Class 5 = 5/16 (31.25%) for 22.7pts (+141.7%)
  • Tom Cannon + OR 90-110 = 6/16 (37.5%) for 24.6pts (+153.7%)
  • Tom Cannon + Class 5 = 5/12 (41.7%) for 26.7pts (+222.3%)
  • Class 5 + OR 90-110 = 2/8 (25%) for 2.46pts (+30.7%)
  • and Tom Cannon + OR 90-110 + Class 5 = 2/6 (33.3%) for 4.46pts (+74.3%)

...giving us a 1pt win bet on Sky Full of Stars @ 9/2 BOG as was offered by Betfair and Paddy Power at 5.30pm on Sunday evening with plenty of 4/1 BOG offered elsewhere. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.00 Fontwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

SotD Update, 7th to 12th January 2019

Well, to half borrow an old footballing cliché, that was a week of two halves, wasn't it?

We started the week holding a handy 7pt advantage for the month and kicked off with a couple of placers and a 5th position, giving back almost half of the profit we held. But that was followed by two drifters come home as winners, before Athollblair Boy confirmed his favouritism on Saturday to give us a second half hat trick.

To continue the analogy, we earned a 3-3 draw since the last update, winners to losers, but as you know with SotD, one winner pays for three or four losers in the long run, so I was "over the moon" to turn an 11pt profit on the week.

Saturday's win was the most significant of the three, although it made the least money, because it means that despite not quite being halfway through January, we now can't lose this month. We've still got 16 selections to make, but with 18pts in the bag, we know we're making money this month. There'll be no change in approach, naturally, just like there isn't during the cold spells. I'll still be looking for at least another four winners for the month, so I'd better get my head down!

Selections & Results : 07/01/19 to 12/01/19

Your first 30 days for just £1

07/01 : Sarvi @ 7/2 BOG 3rd at 4/1 
08/01 : Instingtive @ 9/2 BOG 3rd at 5/1
09/01 : Magic Mirror @ 7/2 BOG 5th at 7/2
10/01 : Azari @ 11/4 BOG WON at 4/1
11/01 : A Sure Welcome @ 7/2 BOG WON at 7/1
12/01 :  Athollblair Boy @ 3/1 BOG WON at 2/1

07/01/19 to 12/01/19 :
3 winning bets from 6 = 50.00% SR
P/L: +11.00pts

January 2019 :
5 winners from 11 = 45.45% SR
P/L: +18.00pts
ROI = +163.64%

2019 to date :
5 winners from 11 = 45.45% SR
P/L: +18.00pts
ROI = +163.64%

Overall:
595 winners from 2189 = 27.18% S.R
P/L: +514.40pts
ROI: +23.50%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is
here.
Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are
now available here.
Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here

And here is the full story from 2017.

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take the plunge and get involved right now?

Click here for more details.

Stat of the Day, 12th January 2019

Friday's Pick was...

7.45 Wolverhampton : A Sure Welcome @ 7/2 BOG WON at 7/1 (Chased leader, ridden and ran on to lead well inside final furlong, winning by a nose)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

6.30 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Athollblair Boy @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ A/W Handicap over 6f on tapeta worth £3752 to the winner...

Why?

Firstly, a warning...this 6 yr old is hardly prolific at 4 from 38 and without a win in his last 8 outings, so why would he now make it 5 from 39?

Well, that last win was a Class 4 C&D contest when he won off today's mark of 76 back in March of last year and he showed signs of a return to form in another C4 C&D contest last time out, when 3rd under today's jockey 10 days ago, just 2 necks behind the winner and course specialist Nick Vedder in a tight finish and he now takes a drop in class.

And whilst he is admittedly 4 from 38, that doesn't tell the whole story, as he has 3 wins and 6 places from just 13 runs on the tapeta here at Newcastle, including 2 wins and 3 places from over the 6f course and distance and he's 2 from 2 after less than 2 weeks rest here.

That's possibly not enough data to convince you yet, so like A Sure Welcome yesterday, this one comes from a sire whose progeny excel on this surface. Basically offspring of the sire Frozen Power are 25/127 (19.7% SR) for 71.6pts (+56.3% ROI) over 5 to 8.5 furlongs on tapeta and these include of relevance today...

  • in fields of at least 7 runners : 24/121 (19.8%) for 74.7pts (+61.7%)
  • for prizes below £4k : 22/100 (22%) for 86.4pts (+86.4%)
  • 4-45 days since last run : 21/98 (21.4%) for 75.7pts (+77.3%)
  • in handicaps : 18/95 (19%) for 68.7pts (+72.3%)
  • off a mark of 56-79 : 18/78 (23.1%) for 85.3pts (+109.4%)
  • at evens to 8/1 : 23/69 (33.3%) for 53.5pts (+77.5%)
  • beaten by 0.25 to 4 lengths LTO : 10/37 (27%) for 25.7pts (+69.5%)
  • and 4-10 dslr : 8/22 (36.4%) for 8.24pts (+37.5%)

...from which... in handicap fields of 7 or more runners competing  for less than £4k off a mark of 56 or higher at odds of evens to 8/1 some 4 to 45 days after their last run = 12 from 34 (35.3% SR) for 33pts (+97.1% ROI), including 4 winners from (44.4%) for 8.78pts (+97.5%) with no more than 10 days rest.

Another positive is the fact that over the last two years, trainer Nigel Tinkler's Flat/AW handicappers dropping down a grade are 20 from 84 (23.8% SR) for 48.8pts (+58.1% ROI), including...

  • within 30 days of last run : 19/67 (28.4%) for 62.8pts (+93.7%)
  • sub-12/1 runners are 19/57 (33.3%) for 57.6pts (+101.1%)
  • OR 56-79 : 16/48 (3.3%) for 66.9pts (+139.3%)
  • 6/7 furlongs : 12/38 (31.6%) for 47.3pts (+124.5%)
  • 6 furlongs : 9/29 (31%) for 33.6pts (+115.8%)
  • 2nd to 4th LTO : 10/24 (41.7%) for 33.9pts (+141%)
  • beaten by more than a neck but less than 3L LTO : 6/16 (37.5%) for 16.59pts (+103.6%)
  • on tapeta : 4/13 (30.8%) for 4.92pts (+37.8%)
  • Class 5 : 5/12 (41.7%) for 11.25pts (+93.8%)
  • and here at Newcastle : 3/12 (25%) for 4.02pts (+33.5%)

...and from that little lot...over 5f to 1m off OR of 56-79 @ sub-12/1 odds within 30 days of last run = 12/25 (48% SR) for 48.38pts (+193.5% ROI) and this includes 8 winners from 12 (66.6%) for 24.13pts (+201.1%) from those with a top 4 finish last time out...

...pointing to a 1pt win bet on Athollblair Boy @ 3/1 BOG as was offered by a half dozen or so firms at 6.35pm on Friday evening, although those with an unrestricted SkyBet account could get an extra third of a point if they were lucky/quick. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.30 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 11th January 2019

Thursday's Pick was...

12.45 Southwell : Azari @ 11/4 BOG WON at 4/1 (Made all, quickened 3 lengths clear 3f out, ran on unchallenged to win by 7 lengths)

Friday's pick runs in the...

7.45 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

A Sure Welcome @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ A/W Handicap over 6f on tapeta worth £3752 to the winner...

Why?

This 5 yr old gelding was only beaten by a short head last time out, when running over this very same course and distance 25 days ago, finishing 2 lengths clear of The Golden Cue, who went on to win over 6f last week.

That result took our boy's career figures to 6 wins and 4 places from 18 starts on the A/W with the 33.3% win strike rate generating level stakes profits of 43.9pts at an ROI of some 243.7%, all in handicaps. With regards to this contest, those figures include...

  • 6/17 (35.3%) for 44.9pts (+264.1%) in fields of 10-14 runners
  • 4/13 (30.8%) for 27.3pts (+210.1%) here at Wolverhampton
  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 35.67pts (+396.3%) after a break of just 11-25 days
  • and 2/5 (40%) for 18.1pts (+362%) with the above three conditions all in play together

His suitability for the task ahead is backed up by the fact he and his fellow offspring of the sire Pastoral Pursuits (who himself had 6 wins and 2 places from 8 at 6/7 furlongs, including winning a Group 1) are 40 from 170 (23.5% SR) for 108.9pts (64.1% ROI) when sent off at odds of 6/4 to 12/1 over 5f to a mile on Tapeta and these include of relevance today...

  • in fields of 8-14 runners : 37/154 (24%) for 105.6pts (+68.6%)
  • in handicaps : 32/146 (21.9%) for 102.8pts (+70.4%)
  • competing for less than £4,000 : 34/135 (25.2%) for 110.4pts (+81.8%)
  • males : 28/125 (22.4%) for 88.5pts (+70.8%)
  • over the last 3yrs : 31/121 (25.6%) for 103.6pts (+85.6%)
  • 1-25 days since last run : 30/111 (27%) for 84.8pts (+76.4%)
  • top 3 finish LTO : 22/69 (31.9%) for 61.8pts (+89.6%)
  • Class 5 : 17/63 (27%) for 54.5pts (+86.5%)
  • over 6f : 13/59 (22%) for 46.8pts (+79.4%)
  • 5/6 yr olds : 17/55 (30.9%) for 41.4pts (+75.2%)
  • off a mark of 70-80 : 14/45 (31.1%) for 38.6pts (+85.8%)

...giving us a 1pt win bet on A Sure Welcome @ 7/2 BOG as was offered by a half dozen or so firms at 5.50pm on Thursday evening, although those with an unrestricted Coral account could get an extra half point if they were lucky/quick. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 7.45 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 10th January 2019

Wednesday's Pick was...

5.45 Kempton : Magic Mirror @ 7/2 BOG 5th at 7/2 (Held up, pushed along 2f out, stayed on final furlong, not trouble leaders)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

12.45 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Azari @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ A/W Handicap over 1m4f on fibresand worth £3752 to the winner...

Why?

This 7 yr old gelding was a course and distance winner under today's jockey Ryan Rossa (who has a good record at this track and also fares well for this yard) and although he's up 3lbs to a mark of 73, he's still expected to go well again today.

After all, it's not too long ago that he was winning at Class 3 off a mark of 92 and was running off 93 less than a year ago. He initially caught my eye because he's on the Geegeez Shortlist report, which highlighted that he's 2 from 6 (inc 1/1 here at Southwell) on standard A/W, he has 3 wins and 2 places from 11 over this 1m4f trip (1/1 over C&D) and that he's 2 from 4 at Class 5/6. Throw in the fact that he has 3 wins and a place from 10 runs after a break of 3 to 6 weeks and you've got a good set of conditions to run in.

However, the real reason I was keen to back him was because he's conceding at least 5lbs to all six rivals, which might make you think I've lost the plot as many see this as a negative, but over the last 5 years in Class 5 handicaps over 5f to 1m6f on the A/W here at Southwell, clear top weights are 56/236 (23.7% SR) for 95.1pts (+40.3% ROI) backed blindly!

And of those 236 top weights...

  • those competing for less than £4k are 55/226 (24.3%) for 103.3pts (+45.7%)
  • males are 46/192 (24%) for 107.9pts (+56.2%)
  • at the same class as LTO : 39/142 (27.5%) for 33.5pts (+23.6%)
  • those racing off a mark of 73-77 are 31/121 (25.6%) for 107pts (+88.4%)
  • same trip as LTO : 29/108 (26.9%) for 33.4pts (+30.9%)
  • last 2 yrs : 19/90 (21.1%) for 83.9pts (+93.2%)
  • 6-8 yr olds : 17/76 (22.4%) for 106.2pts (+139.7%)
  • LTO winners are 30/65 (46.2%) for 31.7pts (+48.8%)
  • in January : 14/59 (23.7%) for 46.8pts (+79.3%)
  • same C&D as LTO : 12/49 (24.5%) for 4.55pts (+9.3%)
  • and over this 1m4f C&D : 12/43 (27.9%) for 122.3pts (+284.5%)

...giving us a 1pt win bet on Azari @ 11/4 BOG as was offered by BetVictor, Coral & Ladbrokes at 6.05pm on Wednesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 12.45 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 9th January 2019

Tuesday's Pick was...

2.00 Ayr : Instingtive @ 9/2 BOG 3rd at 5/1 (Chased leaders, not fluent and lost place 4th, given reminders and soon closed back up, not fluent 7th, led 9th, headed 4 out, lost 2nd after 2 out and well beaten 3rd last)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

5.45 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Magic Mirror @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ A/W Handicap over 1m3f on polytrack worth £3752 to the winner... 

Why?

We've got an in-form 6 yr old mare who's well drawn and comes here off the back of an LTO win at this very track 5 weeks ago. In all honestly, she really needed the line to come that day over 1m4f, so a slight drop back in trip might not be a bad thing.

To date she has 6 wins and 5 places from her 19 handicap visits to this track, including...

  • 6/18 (33.3%) for 155.6pts (+864.3%) in fields of 7 or more runners
  • 6/15 (40%) for 158.6pts (+1057.1%) when aiming for a prize of £4,000 or less
  • 6/11 (54.6%) for 162.6pts (+1477.9%) in the October-March half of the year
  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 9.34pts (+84.9%) in cheekpieces
  • and 4 from 6 (66.6%) for 14.34pts (+239%) when all four above conditions have been in place, as they are today.

Magic Mirror is trainer Mark Rimell's only runner anywhere today and over the last five years, when his only runner of the day was running on the A/W, he has landed the spoils on 8 of 47 (17% SR) occasions at an A/E of 1.59 and generating level stakes profits of 145.7pts at an ROI of 310% along the way.

With this contest in mind, those 47 runners are...

  • 8/45 (17.8%) for 147.7pts (+328.2%) in handicaps
  • 8/43 (18.6%) for 149.7pts (+348.1%) for prizes of less than £4,000
  • 8/34 (23.5%) for 158.7pts (+466.7%) from September to March
  • 7/30 (23.3%) for 153.7pts (+512.3%) at 6-35 dslr
  • 6/30 (20%) for 143.6pts (+478.6%) from females
  • 7/25 (28%) for 158.6pts (+634.4%) here at Kempton
  • 7/21 (33.3%) for 27.5pts (+130.8%) at odds of 8/1 or shorter
  • 5/15 (33.3%) for 20.63pts (+137.5%) after a top 3 finish LTO
  • 4/14 (28.6%) for 6.34pts (+45.3%) in cheekpieces
  • and 2/7 (28.6%) for 4.7pts (+67.1%) as LTO winners

...whilst from the above... A/W hcps at Kempton for less than £4k in Sept-March at 8/1 or shorter within 5 weeks of their last run = 5 from 8 (62.5% SR) for 22.4pts (+279.6% ROI)...

...giving us a 1pt win bet on Magic Mirror @ 7/2 BOG as was available from pretty much everywhere at 6.20pm on Tuesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.45 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 8th January 2019

Monday's Pick was...

2.25 Musselburgh : Sarvi @ 7/2 BOG 3rd at 4/1 (Close up, ridden and headway approaching last, stayed on towards finish, but beaten by 1.75 lengths)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

2.00 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Instingtive @ 9/2 BOG

...in a 6-runner, Class 5, 5yo+ Handicap Chase over 2m½f on Soft ground worth £3509 to the winner... 

Why?

OK, if I'm honest, the datasets I'm using today aren't the biggest sample sizes I've given you, but I felt that this horse was overpriced, considering there must be some some doubts about the odds-on favourite's jumping after a heavy fall last time out as it remains to be seen if that will have affected him in any way.

Our boy, on the other hand, is rock solid and consistent if not exactly prolific and with 5 places from his last seven runs, I expect him to be there or thereabouts in the closing stages once more. He has a win and 2 places from 4 runs here at Ayr and was only beaten by half a length two starts ago when collared late on in a Class 2 contest, so this represents a major drop back down in quality.

As I said, he doesn't win often enough, but all three career wins have involved the combination of 2m-2m1.5f, Class 4/5, mud, Jan-March and no more than 4 weeks rest. All those are present today and when you combine those factors, his career record of 3 from 33 becomes 3 from 4 (75% SR) for 14.87pts (+371.9% ROI) with the loss being a third placed finish!

Today's jockey, Ross Chapman, is 2 from 3 of those four races above and he was 10 from 32 (31.25% SR) for 30.6pts (+95.6% ROI) over jumps here at Ayr last year, including 8/27 (29.6%) for 23.7pts in handicaps and 3/12 925%) for 4.22pts (+35.2%) over the larger obstacles.

Our trainer, Lisa Harrison, is 5 from 27 (18.5% SR) for 8.88pts (+32.9% ROI) here at Ayr over the last three years from which, her handicap chasers sent off shorter than 8/1 are 4/7 (57.1%) for 20.94pts (+299.1%) with all 7 being males racing after less than a month's rest, including winning 3 from 3 (100%) for 17.16pts (+571.9%) in January.

And as we've looked at horse, jockey and trainer, I might as well add a note about the sire, Scorpion, because his 5-8 yr old offspring are 11 from 40 (27.5% SR) for 28.4pts (+71% ROI) in handicap jumps races over 2m to 2m3f on soft ground or worse during the last three years. And as SotD just wouldn't be SotD without at least one statistical breakdown, those 40 Scorpion progeny are...

  • 10/29 (34.5%) for 35.6pts (+122.6%) after 6-45 days off the track
  • 3/12 (25%) for 16.08pts (+134%) over fences
  • 4/10 (40%) for 16.87pts (+168.7%) competing for less than £4,000
  • 3/4 (75%) for 18.11pts (+452.9%) in January
  • and 2/3 (66.6%) for 8.03pts (+267.8%) at Class 5

...giving us a 1pt win be on Instingtive @ 9/2 BOG as was available from pretty much everywhere at 6.10pm on Monday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.00 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 7th January 2019

Saturday's Pick was...

3.35 Sandown : Monsieur Lecoq @ 3/1 BOG WON at 11/4 (Tracked leader until 3rd, tracked leading pair, 2nd again after 3 out, led travelling well approaching next, came clear before last, won easily by 9 lengths)

Monday's pick runs in the...

2.25 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Sarvi @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 13-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ Handicap Hurdle over 1m7½f on Good ground worth £4159 to the winner... 

Your first 30 days for just £1

Why?

This 4 yr old filly was third over this course and distance just 6 days ago and would certainly have fared better but for a mistake at the last. A better jumping display under the same jockey off the same mark today should be enough for her to at least be in the mix on the run-in.

Her trainer, Jim Goldie, is 11 from 69 (15.9% SR) for 21.07pts (+30.5% ROI) with sub-12/1 Musselburgh handicap hurdlers since 2008 and to ensure we're not relying on old data, we'll focus on those from 2013 onwards who are 7/40 (17.5% SR) for 18.63pts (+46.6% ROI).

And of those 40...

  • those who raced in the previous 45 days are 6/36 (16.6%) for 17.82pts (+49.5%)
  • those with a top 3 finish LTO are 3/12 (25%) for 13.16pts (+109.7%)
  • top 3 finish LTO in the previous 45 days = 3/11 (27.3%) for 14.16pts (+128.8%)
  • those ridden by Callum Bewley : 2/9 (22.2%) for 7.28pts (+80.9%)
  • Bewley + top 3 LTO = 2/3 (66.6%) for 13.28pts (+442.6%), with all three having raced in the previous 45 days.

Also, over the last two years, Jim Goldie's handicappers turned back out after just 4 to 10 days rest are 33/199 (16.6% SR) for 253.2pts (+127.2% ROI), from which...

  • 3-5 yr olds are 21/105 (20%) for 76pts (+72.3%)
  • Same OR as LTO : 16/101 (15.8%) for 209.3pts (+207.3%)
  • Same Class as LTO : 19/100 (19%) for 233.6pts (+233.6%)
  • Within o.5f of LTO trip : 18/98 (18.4%) for 110.2pts (+112.4%)
  • Females are 14/69 (20.3%) for 102.8pts (+148.9%)
  • Same jockey as LTO : 13/63 (20.6%) for 48.2pts (+76.6%)
  • Class 4 : 6/43 (14%) for 122.8pts (+285.5%)
  • at Musselburgh : 4/16 (25%) for 3.6pts (+14.4%)
  • and 3-5 yr old females at the same OR, class and distance as LTO are 3/9 (33.3%) for 16.44pts (+182.7%)

...giving us a 1pt win bet on Sarvi @ 7/2 BOG as was available from pretty much everywhere at 6.50pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.25 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 7th January 2019

Saturday's Pick was...

3.35 Sandown : Monsieur Lecoq @ 3/1 BOG WON at 11/4 (Tracked leader until 3rd, tracked leading pair, 2nd again after 3 out, led travelling well approaching next, came clear before last, won easily by 9 lengths)

Monday's pick runs in the...

2.25 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Sarvi @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 13-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ Handicap Hurdle over 1m7½f on Good ground worth £4159 to the winner... 

Why?

This 4 yr old filly was third over this course and distance just 6 days ago and would certainly have fared better but for a mistake at the last. A better jumping display under the same jockey off the same mark today should be enough for her to at least be in the mix on the run-in.

Her trainer, Jim Goldie, is 11 from 69 (15.9% SR) for 21.07pts (+30.5% ROI) with sub-12/1 Musselburgh handicap hurdlers since 2008 and to ensure we're not relying on old data, we'll focus on those from 2013 onwards who are 7/40 (17.5% SR) for 18.63pts (+46.6% ROI).

And of those 40...

  • those who raced in the previous 45 days are 6/36 (16.6%) for 17.82pts (+49.5%)
  • those with a top 3 finish LTO are 3/12 (25%) for 13.16pts (+109.7%)
  • top 3 finish LTO in the previous 45 days = 3/11 (27.3%) for 14.16pts (+128.8%)
  • those ridden by Callum Bewley : 2/9 (22.2%) for 7.28pts (+80.9%)
  • Bewley + top 3 LTO = 2/3 (66.6%) for 13.28pts (+442.6%), with all three having raced in the previous 45 days.

Also, over the last two years, Jim Goldie's handicappers turned back out after just 4 to 10 days rest are 33/199 (16.6% SR) for 253.2pts (+127.2% ROI), from which...

  • 3-5 yr olds are 21/105 (20%) for 76pts (+72.3%)
  • Same OR as LTO : 16/101 (15.8%) for 209.3pts (+207.3%)
  • Same Class as LTO : 19/100 (19%) for 233.6pts (+233.6%)
  • Within o.5f of LTO trip : 18/98 (18.4%) for 110.2pts (+112.4%)
  • Females are 14/69 (20.3%) for 102.8pts (+148.9%)
  • Same jockey as LTO : 13/63 (20.6%) for 48.2pts (+76.6%)
  • Class 4 : 6/43 (14%) for 122.8pts (+285.5%)
  • at Musselburgh : 4/16 (25%) for 3.6pts (+14.4%)
  • and 3-5 yr old females at the same OR, class and distance as LTO are 3/9 (33.3%) for 16.44pts (+182.7%)

...giving us a 1pt win bet on Sarvi @ 7/2 BOG as was available from pretty much everywhere at 6.50pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.25 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

SotD Update, 31st December to 5th January

Happy New Year everyone!

I'll be honest with you, I was glad to see the back of 2018 from an SotD point of view. We had a great first third of the year, then lost all the profit from those four months in the next third and then the final third of the year saw us just about stay on the right side of the break-even line.

The end result was 22.64% strike rate yielding a small 10.16pts profit at an ROI of just 3.43%. It's better than the bank will give you and much more fun, but it's not what we're used to!  More on this is my upcoming review of the year.

In a nutshell, compared to overall performance, we were probably 13 winners shy of parity, so missing just one winner per month can make a big difference. We're not into hard luck stories at SotD, you get what you get. If, however, we'd had the 13 extra winners, we'd have been looking at an annual profit of around 70pts, which is where we like to be!

So, the challenge is simple : have a better 2019 and we (Matt and myself) will be doing our level best to do so and we've already landed two winners this week/month to set the ball rolling with 7pts on the board for January so far : now it's time to kick on. Are you with us?

Selections & Results : 31/12/18 to 05/01/19

31/12 : Gonnabegood @ 11/2 BOG PU at 11/4 
01/01 : Chica Buena @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 5/2
02/01 : Chosen World @ 7/2 BOG 5th at 11/4
03/01 : Sliding Doors @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 11/4
04/01 : Tigerfish @ 5/1 BOG WON at 7/1
05/01 : Monsieur Lecoq @ 3/1 BOG WON at 11/4

Your first 30 days for just £1

31/12/18 to 05/01/19 :
2 winning bets from 6 = 33.33% SR
P/L: +6.00pts

December 2018 :
5 winners from 24 = 20.83% SR
P/L: +1.41pts
ROI = +5.88%

January 2019 :
2 winners from 5 = 40.00% SR
P/L: +7.00pts
ROI = +140.00%

2018 final stats :
67 winners from 296 = 22.64% SR
P/L: +10.16pts
ROI = +3.43%

2019 to date :
2 winners from 5 = 40.00% SR
P/L: +7.00pts
ROI = +140.00%

Overall:
592 winners from 2183 = 27.12% S.R
P/L: +503.40pts
ROI: +23.06%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is
here.
Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are
now available here.
Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here

And here is the full story from 2017.

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take the plunge and get involved right now?

Click here for more details.

Stat of the Day, 5th January 2019

Friday's Pick was...

5.20 Kempton : Tigerfish @ 5/1 BOG WON at 7/1 (Tracked leaders, bumped over 6f out, ridden to lead inside final furlong, ran on to win by 1.25 lengths)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

3.35 Sandown :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Monsieur Lecoq @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ Handicap Hurdle over 2m on Soft ground worth £15640 to the winner... 

Why?

Just 3 runs in the UK so far for this 5 yr old gelding, but never out of of the first three home in those contests. Third in each of his first two efforts, he got off the mark in a 2m hurdle on heavy ground at Ffos Las 19 days ago, having comfortably made all and winning with ease by seven lengths, but the margin of victory could have been far more if he'd been pushed.

His trainer, Jane Williams, is 7 from 24 (29.2% SR) for 32.2pts (+134.3% ROI) over the last 12 weeks and although that's a fairly small sample size, there are some interesting/relevant angles at play today as those runners include...

  • males : 7/21 (33.3%) for 35.2pts (+167.8%)
  • hurdlers : 7/18 (38.9%) for 38.2pts (+212.4%)
  • prizes of 4k to 17k : 7/15 (46.7%) for 41.2pts (+274.9%)
  • ridden by Lizzie Kelly : 3/14 (21.4%) for 20pts (+143%)
  • at 7/1 or shorter : 6/13 (46.2%) for 13.5pts (+103.8%)
  • handicappers : 3/7 (42.9%) for 13.2pts (+188.5%)
  • within 25 dslr : 3/5 (60%) for 1.89pts (+37.8%)
  • over this 2m trip : 3/4 (75%) for 29.5pts (+736.7%)
  • and LTO winners : 2/4 (50%) for 7.6pts (+190%)

...from which... male hurdlers priced at 7/1 and shorter aiming for prizes of £4k to £17k are 6/8 (75% SR) for 18.5pts (+231.2% ROI) including that LTO win by Monsieur Lecoq at odds of 4/6, which leads me nicely to another angle of note for today ie in UK handicap hurdles over the last four years, horses who were sent off at odds on prices and won LTO by more than one length in the previous 25 days are 59/205 (28.8% SR) for 46.7pts (+22.8% ROI) and these include...

  • for prizes up to £17k : 53/161 (32.9%) for 35.4pts (+22%)
  • up in class : 30/115 (26.1%) for 49pts (+42.6%)
  • over 1m7.5f to 2m1f : 20/63 (31.8%) for 34.4pts (+54.6%)
  • on soft ground : 11/40 (27.5%) for 15pts (+37.5%)

...from which... those racing over 1m7.5f to 2m1f stepping up 1 or 2 classes for a prize of £4k to £17k are 8 from 16 (50% SR) for 14.86pts (+92.9% ROI), including 3 winners from 4 (75%) for 14.05pts (+351.2%) on soft ground...

...giving us a 1pt win bet on Monsieur Lecoq @ 3/1 BOG as was available from pretty much everywhere at 5.05pm on Friday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.35 Sandown

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 4th January 2019

Thursday's Pick was...

1.45 Ludlow : Sliding Doors @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 11/4 (Held up, not fluent 2nd, closed 4th, challenged 3 out, every chance flat, stayed on, just held by neck, lacking the will to go past the leader)

Friday's pick runs in the...

5.20 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Tigerfish @ 5/1 or 11/2 BOG

...in a 14-runner, Class 6, 4yo+ A/W Handicap over 1m4f on polytrack worth £3105 to the winner... 

Why?

This 5 yr old mare was a winner last time out 30 days ago over this trip at this class under today's jockey Hollie Doyle and is the only runner in this contest with a recent victory.

Over the last two years, she has been sent off 10 times in the 11/4 to 6/1 odds range in handicaps, winning 5 times (50% SR) for 19.93pts (+199.3% ROI) profit, from which...

  • at Class 6 : 4/9 (44.4%) for 14.42pts (+160.2%)
  • on the A/W : 3/6 (50%) for 13.03pts (+217.1%)
  • under Hollie Doyle : 3/5 (60%) for 14.03pts (+280.6%)
  • after a win LTO : 2/3 (60.6%) for 7.89pts (+263.1%)
  • and over this 1m4f trip : 1/1 (10)%) for 6.37pts (+637%)

Her trainer William Stone is 7/25 (28% SR) for 14.83pts (+59.3% ROI) with LTO winners sent off on the 11/4 to 7/1 odds range since 2011 and they include of relevance today...

  • 10-30 dslr : 7/20 (35%) for 19.83pts (+99.2%)
  • on the A/W : 5/19 (26.3%) for 10.79pts (+56.8%)
  • at Class 6 : 5/17 (29.4%) for 9.53pts (+56%)
  • October-February : 6/14 (42.9%) for 20.1pts (+143.5%)
  • 2017/18 : 4/9 (44.4%) for 15.2pts (+168.9%)
  • with Hollie Doyle : 2/4 (50%) for 10.15pts (+253.8%)
  • and here at Kempton : 1/1 (100%) for 4.94pts (+494%)

...whilst from the above... A/W + Class 6 + Jan/Feb + 10-30dslr = 4/8 (50% SR) for 12.78pts (+159.7% ROI) and they include Tigerfish's win back in February 2017 under Hollie Doyle, which leads us nicely to my final piece of relevant data, which tells us that...

...Doyle + Stone + C5-7 A/W hcps over 7-12 f = 10/40 (25% SR) for 42.65pts (+106.6% ROI)...

...giving us a 1pt win bet on Tigerfish @ 5/1 or 11/2 BOG as was available from Bet365 & SkyBet respectively at 5.40pm on Thursday evening (I'll obviously use 5/1 in my results). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.20 Kempton

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Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!