Posts

SotD Update, 21st to 26th May 2018

Not a great week by any stretch of the imagination.

6 selections, 2 non-runners a placer and three also-rans made for a 4pt loss and there's no hiding from the fact that it's going to be mighty difficult to turn a profit for May, unless I can find three winners in the next four days!

Should that unlikely event not come to pass, May will become our first unprofitable month since August 2017 and the third such month since June 2016, hence the reason nobody here at Geegeez is pressing any panic buttons right now.

I would however like to address a couple of queries/concerns I've had pointed out to me...

  • No, the selection process hasn't changed
  • No, I don't know why they're not winning
  • Yes, I do back them myself with real money (£25 stakes)
  • Yes, I'm also feeling the pain
  • and Yes, I do genuinely think that every one of my picks has a good chance of winning with or without the stats to back it up.

Geegeez thrives based on service, honesty and transparency. We make no excuses during a poor run nor we shout BOOOOOOOOM after a winning selection.

We don't hide when the chips are down and whilst we're not happy with the results right now, we know better times are around the corner and we thank you for your continued support/patience.

Selections & Results : 21/05/18 to 26/05/18 

21/05 : Northandsouth @ 3/1 BOG non-runner (Self Cert : Bruised Foot)
22/05: Not A Role Model @ 5/2 non-runner (Self Cert : Not Eaten Up)
23/05 : Lilys Prince @ 5/1 BOG 3rd at 7/4
24/05 : Foie Gras @ 11/4 7th at 6/1
25/05 : Savannah Moon @ 4/1 BOG 7th at 7/2
26/05 : Heartache @ 9/2 BOG 6th at 6/1

Your first 30 days for just £1

21/05/18 to 26/05/18  :
0 winning bets from 4 = 0.00% SR
P/L: -4.00pts

May 2018 :
3 winners from 21 = 14.28% SR
P/L: -7.10pts
ROI = -33.81%

2018 to date :
30 winners from 114 = 26.32% SR
P/L: +28.41pts
ROI = +24.92%

Overall:
553 winners from 1999 = 27.66% S.R
P/L: +516.20pts
ROI: +25.82%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.

Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are now available here.

Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here

And here is the full story from 2017.

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take your £1, 30-day trial right now?

Click here for more details.

Stat of the Day, 26th May 2018

Friday's Runner was...

8.30 Pontefact : Savannah Moon @ 4/1 BOG 7th at 7/2 (Steadied start, in rear, switched wide into straight 2f out, never on terms)

Next up is Saturday's...

3.25 Haydock :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Heartache @ 9/2 BOG 

An 8-runner, Group 2 contest (Sandy Lane Stakes) for 3yo over 6f on Good To Soft ground (watering, even though there's heavy rain in the area) worth £51039 to the winner... 

Why?

OK, guys (and gals, of course!), late start today, but the usual amount of research has been done, but I'll cut down on the waffle!

A 3 yr old filly (so gets a useful 3lbs allowance) making her seasonal return some 253 days after completing a perfect 3 from 3 debut season as a 2yo.

Amongst those runs were two wins at this Gr 2 level including one (LTO) at Doncaster where she stayed on really well on similarly good to soft ground as she'll face today. She looked like she'd get further than that day's 5f and being another year stronger, I'd expect her to be well suited by the 6f on offer here.

Trainer Clive Cox won this race last year and comes here in good form with 11 winners from 56 (19.6% SR) for profits of 14.6pts (+26% ROI) over the last 30 days, including...

  • at 5 to 7 furlongs : 9/36 (25%) for 21.3pts (+59.3%)
  • at Class 1 : 2/7 (28.6%) for 1.32pts (+18.8%)

Now although Clive had the winner of this race last year, he doesn't send many runners to this venue, but those that come tend to go well with 9 winners from 51 (17.7%) generating 43.9pts profit at an ROI of 86.2% since the start of 2013, from which...

  • over 6f course and distance : 5/20 (25%) for 48.8pts (+244%)
  • at Class 1 : 4/14 (28.6%) for 7.5pts (+53.4%_
  • and on good to soft : 3/10 (30%) for 44.7pts (+447%)

And for those of you concerned about the horse's 253 days off track, Clive's runners returning from breaks of 8 to 24 months are 10 from 40 (25% SR) for 49.9pts (+124.7% ROI) since the start of 2016, from which...

  • he's 5/12 (41.7%) for 27.5pts (+229.5%) on May
  • and 2/7 (28.6%) for 31.1pts (+444.7%) at Class 1

Clive also has a good record with LTO winners, but as this filly has been off track so long since her LTO win, I didn't think thise stats were as relevant as they could be today...

...but we've already definitiely enough for...a 1pt win bet on Heartache @ 9/2 BOG which was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 10.30pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.25 Haydock

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 25th May 2018

Thursday's Runner was...

6.10 Chelmsford : Foie Gras @ 11/4 7th at 6/1 (Always towards rear)

Next up is Friday's...

8.30 Pontefract :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Savannah Moon @ 4/1 BOG 

A 10-runner, Class 5, Fillies Handicap (3yo+) over 1m2f on Good To Firm gorund worth £3881 to the winner... 

Why?

A winner of two of her last three outings, this 4 yr old filly defied a 255-day absence to win here over course and distance 23 days ago on her only previous visit to this track, taking her career record at 9/10 furlongs to 2 wins from 3.

Her yard has been in decent nick of late with Kevin Ryan's charges winning 13 of 79 (16.5% SR) over the last 30 days, generating profit of 23.3pts at an ROI of 29.5%, whilst today's jockey Keith Stott has ridden 5 winners from 25 (20%) himself in the last two weeks.

Team Ryan are already 3 from 8 (37.5% SR) for 10.32pts (+129% ROI) here at Pontefract this season, whilst more generally their LTO winners are 93/524 (17.8%) for 44.8pts (+8.6%) backed blindly since the start of 2012.

I never really recommend blind backing such angles as the losing runs can be demoralising, but I prefer to focus on relevant angles, such as...

  • those who last ran 4-60 days earlier : 87/425 (20%) for 100.7pts (+23.1%)
  • on the Flat : 66/399 (16.5%) for 56.5pts (+14.2%)
  • those who won by 2L or less LTO : 71/383 (18.5%) for 73.9pts (+19.3%)
  • in May/June  :18/123 (14.6%) for 49.7pts (+40.4%)
  • females : 22/121 (18.2%) for 16.8pts (+13.9%)
  • ridden by Keith Stott : 22/70 (31.4%) for 60pts (+85.8%)
  • in 2018 : 9/34 (26.5%) for 24.8pts (+72.9%)
  • and here at Ponty : 3/9 (33.3%) for 10.76pts (+119.5%)

AND...if you did want a small "bet and forget" micro, you could back...LTO winners running on the Flat, 4-60 days after a win by 2 lengths or less for 49 winners from 238 (20.6% SR) and 130.6pts profit (+54.9% ROI) : a strategy that is already standing at 11/40 (27.5%) for 29.3pts (+73.2%) since the start of the 2017 season...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Savannah Moon @ 4/1 BOG  which was widely available at 7.05pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 8.30 Pontefract

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 24th May 2018

Wednesday's Runner was...

2.30 Ayr : Lilys Prince @ 5/1 3rd at 7/4 (Mid-division, headway over 1f out, kept on inside final furlong)

Next up is Thursday's...

6.10 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Foie Gras @ 11/4 BOG 

A 9-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap (4yo+) over 1m on Polytrack worth £4399 to the winner...

Why?

An 8 yr old gelding who has won three times at this track and three times at today's trip. In fact, he actually has three wins and one place from nine efforts over course and distance and has now slipped back to a mark just a pound higher than his last win here.

His trainer Chris Dwyer is 91/571 (15.9% SR) for 163.3pts (+28.6% ROI) in A/W handicaps since the start of 2013, including 29 winners from 163 (17.8%) for 121.2pts (+74.4%) here at Chelmsford.

And of those 163 Chelmsford handicappers...

  • those last seen 10 to 50 days earlier are 24/120 (20%) for 144.8pts (+120.7%)
  • males are 17/101 (16.8%) for 112.7pts (+111.6%)
  • those priced at 5/1 and shorter are 23/61 (37.7%) for 34.4pts (+56.4%)
  • those racing over 7f/1m are 12/54 (22.2%) for 143.6pts (+266%)
  • Class5 runners are 9/43 (20.9%) for 1.04pts (+2.4%)
  • those sent off as favourite are 9/20 (45%) for 4.93pts (+24.65%)
  • and those ridden by today's jockey Lewis Edmunds are 3/9 (33.3%) for 8.8pts (+97.7%)

...and this simple approach gives us...a 1pt win bet on Foie Gras @ 11/4 BOG which was widely available at 6.25pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 6.10 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 23rd May 2018

Tuesday's Runner was...

7.40 Huntingdon : Not A Role Model @ 5/2 non-runner (Self Cert : Not Eaten Up)

Our third go at starting the new week is via Wednesday's...

2.30 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Lilys Prince @ 5/1 BOG 

A 12-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap (3yo+) over 6f on Good to Firm ground worth £3105 to the winner... 

Why?

An interesting booking here for an 8 yr old gelding making a UK debut after as many as 74 runs in Ireland, including a decent third place finish at Cork just five days ago.

Of those runs in Ireland, he is...

  • 5/43 (11.6%) in fields of 12-15 runners
  • 5/25 (20%) over a 6f trip
  • 2/7 (28.6%) within a week of his last run
  • and also 2/7 (28.6%) in the month of May.

He should benefit from Ben Curtis getting ride today, as Ben is not only in good nick right now (rode a winner here for today's trainer yesterday), but he also rides the Ayr track well, winning 6 of 29 (20.7% SR) since the start of the 2016 season.

But the real numbers are derived from our horse making a first start in the UK, because since the start of 201, in UK Flat handicaps, Irish bred horses who last ran in Ireland are 74/634 (11.7% SR) for 141.5pts (+22.3% ROI) backed blindly, whilst in the context of this race, those 634 "Irish raiders" are...

  • 58/365 (15.9%) for 194.7pts (+53.3%) at Classes 4 to 6
  • 63/343 (18.4%) for 65.1pts (+19%) at odds of 5/4 to 10/1
  • 39/261 (14.9%) for 158.2pts (+60.6%) 4 to 25 days since they last ran
  • 31/183 (16.9%) for 128.7pts (+70.4%) here in Scotland
  • 24/168 (14.3%) for 56.7pts (+33.7%) in the months of April/May
  • 28/149 (18.8%) for 24.7pts (+16.6%) at Class 6
  • 22/124 (17.7%) for 33.5pts (+27%) lost by just 0.25 to 3 lengths LTO
  • 11/107 (10.3%) for 45.6pts (+42.6%) over a 6f trip
  • and 18/107 (16.8%) for 25.4pts (+23.7%) who finished 2nd or 3rd LTO.

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Lilys Prince @ 5/1 BOG  which was offered by Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.25pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.30 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 22nd May 2018

Monday's Runner was...

3.05 Redcar : Northandsouth @ 3/1 BOG non-runner (Self Cert : Bruised Foot)

I'm a bit late tonight after spending the afternoon with my nan who is 96 today, but our second go at starting the new week is via Tuesday's...

7.40 Huntingdon :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Not A Role Model @ 5/2 BOG non-runner at 8.40am! (Self Cert : Not Eaten Up)

A 9-runner, Class 4, 2m4f Handicap Chase  (5yo+) on Good ground worth £4614 to the winner... 

Why?

N/A, sadly.

...but first...a 1pt win bet on Not A Role Model @ 5/2 BOG which was widely available at 8.35pm on Monday, althought those with an unrestricted Bet365 account can get 11/4 BOG. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.40 Huntingdon

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 21st May 2018

Saturday's Runner was...

8.05 Uttoxeter : Northandsouth @ 11/4 BOG 7th at 11/4 (Held up in rear, modest effort 3 out, no impression, well beaten 2 out)

We start the new week via Monday's...

3.05 Redcar :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Liamba @ 3/1 BOG

A 9-runner, Class 6, 5f Handicap (3yo) on Good to Firm ground worth £3493 to the winner... 

Why?

An unexposed three year old filly on handicap debut after steady progression in three outings so far, yet is dropped in class today.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Her trainer David O'Meara is no stranger to the winners' enclosure here at Redcar either, clocking up 51 winners from 308 runners over the last six seasons with that 16.6% strike rate worth 55.9pts (+18.2% ROI) to his followers and whilst backing his runners blindly here is profitable, we can do better than 18% by eliminating some losing bets via the following logical filters...

  • 2 to 4 yr olds are 42/232 (19.1%) for 80.4pts (+34.7%)
  • those rated (OR) 50 to 90 are 44/231 (19.1%) for 76.2pts (+33%)
  • those priced at 9/4 to 12/1 are 44/216 (20.4%) for 100.6pts (+46.6%)
  • handicappers are 38/207 (18.4%) for 60.4pts (+29.2%)
  • those ridden by Danny Tudhope are 28/114 (24.6%) for 54.7pts (+81.2%)
  • those last seen 4 to 15 days ago are 21/103 (20.4%) for 61.75pts (+60%)
  • Class 6 runners are 20/90 (22.2%) for 37.6 pts (+41.8%)
  • females are 13/79 (16.5%) for 66.3pts (+84%)
  • in May : 14/74 (18.9%) for 15.8pts (+21.4%)
  • last season : 12/60 (20%) for 34pts (+56.7%)
  • in 3yo races : 10/54 (18.5%) for 13.7pts (+25.3%)
  • and over this 5f course and distance : 8/44 (18.2%) for 18.6pts (+42.3%)

from which...2-4 yr old handicappers rated 50 to 90 and priced at 9/4 to 12/1 are 27/108 (25% SR) for 103.1pts (+95.5% ROI) with a 7/21 (33.3%) for 29.8pts (+141.8%) record last year.

And despite David not having any of 11 handicap debutants win so far this Flat season, he's certainly due one and it wouldn't be unusual for that to happen as over the last five Flat seasons, his runners are 31/208 (14.9% SR) for 90.8pts (+43.7% ROI) on handicap debut, including of relevance today...

  • those ridden by Danny Tudhope : 19/90 (21.1%) for 79.3pts (+88.1%)
  • at Class 6 : 11/63 (17.5%) for 36.5pts (+57.9%)
  • in May : 11/45 (24.4%) for 74.4pts (+165.3%)
  • and here at Redcar : 3/15 (20%) for 1.65pts (+11%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Liamba @ 3/1 BOG which was available from BetVictor, Paddy Power & Bet365 and Unibet at 6.45pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.05 Redcar

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 21st May 2018

Saturday's Runner was...

8.05 Uttoxeter : Northandsouth @ 11/4 BOG 7th at 11/4 (Held up in rear, modest effort 3 out, no impression, well beaten 2 out)

We start the new week via Monday's...

3.05 Redcar :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Liamba @ 3/1 BOG

A 9-runner, Class 6, 5f Handicap (3yo) on Good to Firm ground worth £3493 to the winner... 

Why?

An unexposed three year old filly on handicap debut after steady progression in three outings so far, yet is dropped in class today.

Her trainer David O'Meara is no stranger to the winners' enclosure here at Redcar either, clocking up 51 winners from 308 runners over the last six seasons with that 16.6% strike rate worth 55.9pts (+18.2% ROI) to his followers and whilst backing his runners blindly here is profitable, we can do better than 18% by eliminating some losing bets via the following logical filters...

  • 2 to 4 yr olds are 42/232 (19.1%) for 80.4pts (+34.7%)
  • those rated (OR) 50 to 90 are 44/231 (19.1%) for 76.2pts (+33%)
  • those priced at 9/4 to 12/1 are 44/216 (20.4%) for 100.6pts (+46.6%)
  • handicappers are 38/207 (18.4%) for 60.4pts (+29.2%)
  • those ridden by Danny Tudhope are 28/114 (24.6%) for 54.7pts (+81.2%)
  • those last seen 4 to 15 days ago are 21/103 (20.4%) for 61.75pts (+60%)
  • Class 6 runners are 20/90 (22.2%) for 37.6 pts (+41.8%)
  • females are 13/79 (16.5%) for 66.3pts (+84%)
  • in May : 14/74 (18.9%) for 15.8pts (+21.4%)
  • last season : 12/60 (20%) for 34pts (+56.7%)
  • in 3yo races : 10/54 (18.5%) for 13.7pts (+25.3%)
  • and over this 5f course and distance : 8/44 (18.2%) for 18.6pts (+42.3%)

from which...2-4 yr old handicappers rated 50 to 90 and priced at 9/4 to 12/1 are 27/108 (25% SR) for 103.1pts (+95.5% ROI) with a 7/21 (33.3%) for 29.8pts (+141.8%) record last year.

And despite David not having any of 11 handicap debutants win so far this Flat season, he's certainly due one and it wouldn't be unusual for that to happen as over the last five Flat seasons, his runners are 31/208 (14.9% SR) for 90.8pts (+43.7% ROI) on handicap debut, including of relevance today...

  • those ridden by Danny Tudhope : 19/90 (21.1%) for 79.3pts (+88.1%)
  • at Class 6 : 11/63 (17.5%) for 36.5pts (+57.9%)
  • in May : 11/45 (24.4%) for 74.4pts (+165.3%)
  • and here at Redcar : 3/15 (20%) for 1.65pts (+11%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Liamba @ 3/1 BOG which was available from BetVictor, Paddy Power & Bet365 and Unibet at 6.45pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.05 Redcar

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

SotD Update, 14th to 19th May 2018

Definitely a week of two halves, the week just gone.

Started poorly with a 10th placed finish, then three good days with Alejandro being an unlucky runner-up before wins by Creevytennant and Morning With Ivan ensuring we'd make profit on the week. Sadly we couldn't add to the tally, as the week petered out with two more well-beaten runners.

Without discussing the ifs and maybes about unlucky losers (we don't go into excuses mode here at Geegeez!), we still made 1.5pts profit on the week and whilst May continues to be a tricky conundrum to solve, we're still in there pitching.

In fact, we're currently 3.1pts down for May with 10 selections yet to come (assuming no non-runners) and I'm still confident of making May our ninth profitable month in a row. We're a winner shy of breaking even, so I'm probably going to need 3 or 4 winners before the month is out, but we all know it can be done.

And before I go, one thing on the horizon to look forward to is Friday's selection, which by my maths will be SotD's 2000th pick and at the the very worst we'll tackle that race with an overall strike rate of almost 27.7% with an ROI just shy of 26%!

Selections & Results : 14/05/18 to 19/05/18 

14/05 : Raashdy @ 11/4 BOG 10th at 9/4
15/05: Alejandro @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 3/1
16/05 : Creevytennant @ 5/2 BOG WON at 6/4
17/05 : Morning With Ivan @ 3/1 BOG WON at 11/4
18/05 : Isstoora @ 7/2 BOG 9th at 5/1
19/05 : Northandsouth @ 11/4 BOG 7th at 11/4

Your first 30 days for just £1

14/05/18 to 19/05/18  :
2 winning bets from 6 = 33.33% SR
P/L: +1.50pts

May 2018 :
3 winners from 17 = 17.65% SR
P/L: -3.10pts
ROI = -18.24%

2018 to date :
30 winners from 110 = 27.27% SR
P/L: +32.41pts
ROI = +29.46%

Overall:
553 winners from 1995 = 27.72% S.R
P/L: +520.20pts
ROI: +26.08%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.

Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are now available here.

Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here

And here is the full story from 2017.

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take your £1, 30-day trial right now?

Click here for more details.

Stat of the Day, 19th May 2018

Friday's Runner was...

7.00 Hamilton : Isstoora @ 7/2 BOG 9th at 5/1 (Prominent, pushed along over 3f out, every chance over 2f out, weakened inside final furlong)

We're off to sunny Staffordshire to end the week with Saturday's...

8.05 Uttoxeter :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Northandsouth @ 11/4 BOG

A 13-runner, Class 5, 2m Handicap Hurdle on Good ground worth £3119 to the winner... 

Why?

This 8 yr old gelding is a former course and distance winner and has been running well so far this year, winning twice and placing once in his last five runs, all at Class 4/5 over 2m/2m0.5f so conditions won't be alien to him today.

He won by 4 lengths last time out (9 days ago) off the same mark as today under today's jockey, the excellent Bryony Frost who should, as always, prove tremendous value for her 3lb claim. She's in good nick too, winning 10 of 42 (23.8% SR) over the last 30 days and 4 from 17 (23.5%) in the past fortnight.

Trainer Sam Drinkwater probably isn't a household name outside of his own home, but has excellent figures behind him from a small string of runners.

85 runners to date have brought about 10 winners (11.8% SR) when backed blindly have generated profits of 75.3pts at an ROI of some 88.6%. Whilst very good numbers, they are probably unsustainable, but do include of note today...

  • at odds of 2/1 to 8/1 : 8/35 (22.9%) for 20.4pts (+58.2%)
  • at Class 5 : 5/25 (20%) for 13.16pts (+52.6%)
  • Class 5 runners at 2/1 to 8/1 : 5/16 (31.25%) for 22.16pts (+138.5%)
  • and in May : 2/8 (25%) for 12.2pts (+152.6%)

And as 85 runners is a little on the small size for a set of data to support a selection for SotD, it's worth knowing that...

...in UK handicap hurdles during March to November (eliminating the worst of the weather!), former course and distance winners who also won their last outing (anywhere, any trip) are 135 from 623 (21.7% SR) for 129.6pts (+20.8% ROI) since the start of 2013 with those winning by a half to fifteen lengths LTO doubling up on 134 of 537 (23.1%) occasions for profits of 163.6pts (+30.5%)...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Northandsouth @ 11/4 BOG which was available from BetVictor, SkyBet, Bet365 and Unibet at 7.20pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 8.05 Uttoxeter

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 18th May 2018

Thursday's Runner was...

4.15 Perth : Morning With Ivan @ 3/1 BOG WON at 11/4 (Held up towards rear, headway before 2 out, ridden before last, kept on to lead towards finish, winning by there parts of a length)

We now aim for a Scottish hat-trick via Friday's...

7.00 Hamilton

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Isstoora @ 7/2 BOG

A 14-runner, Class 5, 1m½f Handicap on Good To Firm ground worth £4140 to the winner... 

Why?

Well, we've got a 4 yr old filly who has 2 wins and a place from 6 runs since switching to the relatively new rising star Archie Watson's yard and those runs include a win last time out in very similar conditions to today.

She was comfortably clear in the final furlong of another Class 5, 8.5 furlong handicap on good to firm ground a week ago and she really could have won by at least double that margin if ridden out, suggesting a 6lb rise in weight might not be enough to stop her now.

Aside from that Archie's personal record in his fledgling training career make this a fairly "easy" pick to make, since backing all of his runners blindly has proved profitable so far with 92 winners from 456 (20.2% SR) generating 38.9pts (+8.5% ROI) profit, but 8.5% isn't really what SotD is about, so to eliminate some of the losers, we could (with today's conditions in mind, of course!) just back...

  • those last seen 4 to 20 days ago, who are 55/231 (23.8%) for 57.7pts (+25%)
  • Class 5 runners, who are 46/205 (22.4%) for 54.7pts (+26.7%)
  • those racing in bigger fields (ie 11-14 runners), who are 28/134 (20.9%) for 52.9pts (+39.5%)
  • jockey Andrew Mullen is 7/14 (50%) for 25.2pts (+180.1%) on the Watson runners
  • those racing in Scotland are 6/11 (54.6%) for 24.9pts (+226.4%), justifying the odd foray North from Lambourn, Berkshire.
  • only one previous visit to Hamilton ended up with Snowy Winter winning at 8/1 in another Class 5, 8.5 furlong handicap!

The first three of those six stats are backed by a decent sample size and from those, we can derive a small/simple micro for those (like me) who like those kind of things...so, back Archie Watson's Class 5/6 runners in 11-14 runner contests, 4 to 20 days after their last run...doing so has produced 16 winners from 51 (31.4% SR) to date for profits at Betfair SP (which we'll beat with BOG!) of 38.9pts (+76.2% ROI).

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Isstoora @ 7/2 BOG which was available from Bet365, SkyBet and Betbright at 6.00pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.00 Hamilton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 17th May 2018

Wednesday's Runner was...

9.05 Perth : Creevytennant @ 5/2 BOG WON at 6/4 (Made all, ridden after last, just held on gamely by a head)

We stay in Scotland for Thursday's...

4.15 Perth

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Morning With Ivan @ 3/1 BOG

A 9-runner, Class 3,  2 mile Handicap Hurdle  on good to soft ground worth £8837 to the winner... 

Why?

And another in-form runner. This 8 yr old mare has made the frame in each of her last seven races, winning five of them including the last two, so she now bids for a hat-trick today. She won over this very course and distance last time out, 22 days ago, taking her career strike over hurdles to an excellent 24.2% courtesy of 8 wins from 33 and in the context of today's race, those 33 efforts have seen her achieve the following...

  • 6 wins, 5 places from 28 in handicaps
  • 6 wins, 5 places from 20 when running 16-60 days after her last run
  • 5 wins, 4 places from 14 over 2m/2m0.5f
  • 3 wins, 4 places from 11 on good to soft
  • 4 wins, 4 places from 9 going right handed
  • 3 wins, 2 places from 8 over 2 miles
  • 4 wins, 2 places from 7 wearing a tongue tie
  • 4 wins, 2 places from 6 for trainer Susan Corbett
  • 3 wins, 2 places from 5 under jockey James Corbett
  • 3 wins, 1 place from 4 as favourite
  • 2 wins, 2 places from 4 in 2018
  • 1 win, 1 place from 2 here at Perth
  • 1 win from 1 effort over course and distance (LTO).

In addition to her own excellent stats...Since the start of 2013 in UK handicap hurdle contests, former course and distance winners who won LTO or were beaten by less than 2 lengths are 231/1051 (22% SR) for 197pts (+18.7% ROI) backed blindly on their return to that C&D venue, from which...

  • those running over the same C&D as LTO : 149/658 (22.6%) for 126.9pts (+19.3%)
  • 11-30 days since last run : 123/561 (21.9%) for 148.1pts (+26.4%)
  • March to June : 85/380 (22.4%) for 188.1pts (+49.5%)
  • 8 to 10 yr olds  : 70/347 (20.2%) for 144.5pts (+41.6%)
  • at Class 3 : 73/268 (27.2%) for 205pts (+76.5%)
  • 8 yr olds : 34/163 (20.9%) for 43.9pts (+26.9%)
  • in May : 20/95 (21%) for 32.4pts (+34.1%)
  • and here at Perth : 12/51 (23.5%) for 16.9pts (+33.2%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Morning With Ivan @ 3/1 BOG which was available from Bet365 and Betway at 5.55pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.15 Perth

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 16th May 2018

NB I had some major broadband issues Monday/Tuesday, so please excuse the lack of meat on the bones for the Alejandro selection yesterday. I do have my hand-written notes about that selection, so I'll add them retrospectively later this morning, when I've caught up with other stuff!

Tuesday's Runner was...

4.10 Beverley : Alejandro @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 3/1 (Rear division, headway over 1f out, ridden inside final furlong, kept on towards finish)

We continue with Wednesday's...

9.05 Perth

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Creevytennant @ 5/2 BOG

A 9-runner, Class 5,  3 mile  hunters' chase on good to soft ground worth £2998 to the winner... 

Why?

Well, this old boy might well be 14 yrs old now, but I feel he's got at least another win or two in him before retirement and both race conditions and an apparent lack of quality competition lead me to believe that today will be a good one for him coming back from a break (he does go well fresh, thankfully).

As for his suitability for the task ahead, he had a very good season last year at the age of 13, making the frame 5 times from 6 attempts (worst result was a 4th place finish at the end of his season when he was probably just one race too far done), winning twice from the six races.

Those efforts took his career chase figures to 8 wins from 19 (42.1% SR) which is excellent at this lower level where the same horses seem to take turns at beating each other, he has won more than his fair share and during those 19 races, he is...

  • 7 from 16 going right handed
  • 7 from 12 when priced at 6/1 and shorter
  • 3 from 9 on good to soft
  • 7 from 8 at Classes 3 to 6
  • 4 from 7 in non-handicaps
  • 3 from 6 over the 3m trip
  • 4 from 5 here at Perth
  • 4 from 5 in Hunter Chases
  • 4 from 5 in fields of 8 to 11 runners
  • 2 from 3 under jockey Lilly Pinchin
  • and 2 from 2 over course and distance including a win in this very race last season by a mere 36 lengths!

His trainer Fergal O'Brien is having a decent month so far with his chasers who have won 2 and placed once from 5 in May, whilst more long-term his record here at Perth stands at 23 winners from 81 (28.4% SR) for 36.4pts (+44.9% ROI) profit, which are very healthy numbers indeed.

And of those 81 runners here...

  • those racing over 2m4f to 3m2.5f are 17/51 (33.3%) for 45.1pts (+88.4%)
  • chasers are 12/40 (30%) for 18.9pts (+47.3%)
  • those coming back from 3 months or more off the track are 4/11 (36.4%) for 15.5pts (+140.7%)
  • and hunter chasers are 2 from 2 for 3.75pts (+187.5%)

...all of which suggests...a 1pt win bet on Creevytennant @ 5/2 BOG which was available from Bet365, Skybet and BetVictor at 7.15pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 9.05 Perth

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 15th May 2018

Monday's Runner was...

2.55 Wolverhampton : Raashdy @ 11/4 BOG 10th at 9/4 (Held up mid-division, ridden over 2f out, weakened over 1f out)

We continue with Tuesday's...

4.10 Beverley :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Alejandro @ 7/2 BOG

A 12-runner, Class 4,  1m½f  Flat Handicap (4yo+) on good ground worth £6553 to the winner... 

Why?

This 9 yr old gelding returned from a 12 week break to run well in third place staying on late over 7f at Chester 6 days ago and is taken to fare even better for (a) having had a run, (b) upped in trip and (c) returning to Beverley where his form reads 121 including a 1 from 1 record over course and distance.

His trainer David Loughnane is 9 from 34 (26.5% SR) for 86.7pts (+255% ROI) here at Beverley, including...

  • 8/25 (32%) for 60.1pts (+240.6%) in handicaps
  • 3/8 (37.5%) for 22.6pts over this 8.5f course and distance
  • 2/6 (33.3%) for 14.6pts (+243.4%) at Class 4
  • and 2/3 (66.6%) for 32.8pts (+1093.3%) with Ben Curtis in the saddle.

Ben, himself, seems to enjoy coming here as he's won 17 of his 80 (21.3% SR) rides here since the start of 2016 generating profits of 39.5pts (+49.3% ROI) for those backing him blindly with 3 winners from 6 950%) for 40pts (+666.6%) this year alone.

...and that's how I got to...a 1pt win bet on Alejandro @ 7/2 BOG which was available from Betfair, Coral and Paddy Power at 5.45pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.10 Beverley

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 14th May 2018

Saturday's Runner was...

6.45 Thirsk : Stonific @ 6/1 BOG (=5.4/1 after a 10p R4) WON at 11/4 (Mid-division, smooth headway over 2f out, led 2f out, hard ridden when strongly challenged inside final furlong, held on gamely to win by a head)

We start a new week with Monday's...

2.55 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Raashdy @ 11/4 BOG

A 12-runner, Class 5,  1m4f  A/W Handicap (4yo+) on tapeta worth £3752 to the winner... 

Why?

Well, basically, he's a 5 yr old gelding in excellent form! Over the last seven months he has raced eight times, making the frame on every occasion and winning five times, including last time out twelve days ago over this very course and distance. And although he does seem to be running consistently well, connections have been keen to protect him from overexertion, hence only 8 runs in that time, so he's hardly overdone.

Your first 30 days for just £1

He has a record on the A/W of 6 wins and 3 placed finished from 19 starts and amongst those 19 races, the following demonstrate his suitability for the task ahead...

  • 3 wins, 3 places from 9 here at Wolverhampton
  • 4 wins, 3 places from 7 when sent off at odds of 4/1 or shorter
  • 4 wins, 2 places from 7 within 15 days of his last run
  • 3 wins, 3 places from 7 with Luke Morris in the saddle
  • 3 wins, 1 place from 6 in fields of 12 to 15 runners
  • 4 wins, 1 place from 5 over trips of 11 to 12 furlongs
  • 3 wins, 2 places from 5 wearing cheekpieces
  • 2 wins, 1 place from 4 at a mile and a half
  • and 2 wins, 1 place from just 3 efforts over course and distance

His trainer, Peter Hiatt, has been quiet of late, but still has three winners and a placer from the seven he has sent out over the last four weeks and the yard is 2 from 5 this month, whilst more long-term (and with this race as a point of context), his Class 5 to 7 handicappers racing over trips of 8.5f to 14f here at Wolverhampton are 17/128 (13.3% SR) for 43.9pts (+34% ROI) since 2009.

These are decent "niche numbers" for one of the smaller yards and with today's race conditions, those runners are...

  • 7 from 52 (13.5%) for 26.1pts (+50.2%) racing 6 to 15 days after their last run
  • 14 from 40 (35%) for 40.2pts (+100.5%) when sent off at odds of 7/4 to 7/1
  • 6 from 36 (16.6%) for 46.9pts (+130.2%) on Tapeta
  • and LTO winners are 3 from 10 (30%) for 5.43pts (+54.3%)

...steering us towards...a 1pt win bet on Raashdy @ 11/4 BOG which was available from BetVictor, Ladbrokes, SkyBet & SunBets at 8.45pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.55 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!