Stat of the day | geegeez.co.uk

Stat of the Day, 30th September 2020

30 September 2020/in Stat of the Day/by Chris Worrall

Tuesday's pick was...

8.10 Wolverhampton : Critical Thinking @ 8/1 BOG 6th at 8/1 (In touch, pushed along over 1f out, not trouble leaders)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

3.30 Nottingham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Andaleep @ 4/1 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 3, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m2f on Good ground worth £12,129 to the winner...

Why?...

I'm going to keep it short and hopefully sweet today, starting with the racecard...

...as we bid a fond farewell to SotD with an in-form 4 yr old gelding hailing from an in-form yard with a good 2 year record on the Flat (and over middle distances) albeit from small sample sizes.

Andaleep has been first past the post in each of his last three starts (although subsequently disqualified on the first of the three), all over this 1m2f trip and he's 2 from 2 at 16-20 days rest and 2 from 2 under today's jockey William Carver.

Trainer Graeme McPherson is undoubtedly best known for his NH exploits, having sent out 796 NH runners since the start of 2016, whilst his record on the Flat over the same period stands at...

...and these include of relevance today...

6 from 18 (33.3%) at 1m2f to 1m6f
6 from 13 (46.2%) at odds of 9/4 to 11/1
5 from 7 (71.4%) at 16-20 dslr
3 from 8 (37.5%) with 4 yr olds
3 from 5 (60%) over 1m2f
2 from 4 (50%) with LTO winners
2 from 4 (50%) in September
2 from 2 (100%) for jockey William Carver
and 1 from 2 (50%) here at Nottingham...

...whilst those sent off at 9/4 to 11/1 over 1n2f to 1m6f some 16-20 days after last run have finished 121111 with the 83.3% strike rate yielding profits of 26.75pts (+445.8% ROI) at Industry SP or 30pts (+500% ROI) at Betfair SP, including 3 wins from 3 at today's trip...

...steering us gently towards... a final 1pt win bet on Andaleep @ 4/1 BOG as was widely available at 2.00am Wednesday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning). To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 3.30 Nottingham

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

Here is today's racecard

REMINDER: STAT OF THE DAY WILL BE REPLACED BY THE NEW RACING INSIGHTS FEATURE FROM THIS EVENING.

On behalf of Matt and myself, I'd like to thank you all for your support and loyalty over the years, especially when things haven't always gone our way : I really do appreciate it. The lack of pressure from the readers have ensured that I could approach each new day without a monkey on my back and I hope I can count on the same leeway/latitude for our new venture.

Chris

Stat of the Day, 28th September 2020

28 September 2020/in Horse Racing Blog/by Chris Worrall

Saturday's pick was...

4.10 Newmarket : New Mandate @ 11/4 BOG WON at 9/4 (Keen close up in rear, switched right and headway over 2f out, quickened to lead when edged left approaching final furlong, pushed out, won readily by three quarters of a length)

Monday's pick runs in the...

2.50 Bath :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Union Rose @ 11/2 BOG

...in a 13-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 5½f on Good ground worth £5,208 to the winner...

Why?...

We start with the racecard...

...which primarily tells us that we've an in-form (won his last two) former course and distance winner who likes to run here at Bath as shown in the horses for courses report.

This 8 yr old gelding had back to wins earlier in the month (11 & 14th) at Sandown and then here at Bath, both under today's jockey, 3lb claimer Joshua Bryan, who was riding him for the first time.

So, let's have a quick look at the horses for courses report, which shows 5 wins and 2 further places for this horse here at Bath and they include...

5/12 (41.7%) at odds of 2/1 to 9/1
4/16 (25%) in handicaps
4/11 (36.4%) after less than 3 weeks rest
2/8 (25%) at Class 4
2/5 (40%) in a visor
and 2/4 (50%) in September/October

As an LTO winner, it's worth noting that since the start of last year, trainer Ronald Harris is 6 from 35 (17.1% SR) for 10.95pts (+31.3% ROI) with LTO winners and these include...

6/23 (26.1%) sent off at 2/1 to 9/1
4/20 (20%) on the Flat
2/6 (33.3%) here at Bath
and 2 from 3 (66.6%) in a visor...

...whilst more generally and more long-term (ie since 2016), Ronald has a successful habit of turning runners back out quickly after a good run, as his handicappers rested for a fortnight or less after a top three finish are 30 from 134 (22.4% SR) for 57.6pts (+43% ROI), including of note/relevance today...

29/126 (23%) at trips of 5-7 furlongs
24/99 (24.2%) from male runners
19/91 (20.9%) on the Flat
9/37 (24.3%) at Class 4
5/28 (17.9%) and here at Bath

...with males running over 5-7f on the Flat winning 15 of 64 (23.4% SR) for 29pts (+45.3% ROI), from which they are 7/22 (31.8%) at Class 4, 5/19 (26.3%) at Bath and 3 from 6 (50%) at Class 4 here at Bath...

...pointing towards... a 1pt win bet on Union Rose @ 11/2 BOG as was widely available (and bigger in places) at 8.00am Monday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning). To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 2.50 Bath

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

Here is today's racecard

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

SotD Update, 21st to 26th September 2020

27 September 2020/in Horse Racing Blog/by Chris Worrall

Another good week, although definitely one of two halves, for SotD's final full week before taking a well-earned rest. Results of 554 were thankfully followed by finishes of 131, allowing us to draw another 1.5pts profit from the well.

What it does mean is that we've secured a profit (albeit small) for 2020 to preserve our record of making money every year, but I'm going to need another winner (or non-runner) from the last three picks to prevent September showing an overall monthly deficit. That said, I'd have snatched your hands off a fortnight ago to be in this position.

I'll be back on Wednesday/Thursday with a final roundup, but let's find some winners before then and I hope you'll join us in our new venture/feature from Thursday.

Chris

Selections & Results : 21/09/20 to 26/09/20

21/09 : Kabrit @ 10/3 BOG 5th at 11/4
22/09 : Harbour Vision @ 9/2 BOG 5th at 6/1
23/09 : Pioneering @ 7/2 BOG 4th at 15/8
24/09 : Victory Chime @ 11/4 BOG WON at 2/1
25/09 : Laafy @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 3/1
26/09 : New Mandate @ 11/4 BOG WON at 9/4

21/09/20 to 26/09/20 :
2 winning bets from 6 = 33.33% SR
P/L: +1.50pts

September 2020 :
5 winners from 22 = 22.73% SR
P/L: +2.00pts
ROI = +9.09%

2020 to date :
31 winners from 159 = 19.50% SR
P/L: +8.81pts
ROI = +5.54%

Overall:
687 winners from 2623 = 26.19% SR
P/L: +540.68pts
ROI: +20.61%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.
Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are now available here.
Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here
The full story from 2017 can be read here.
Whilst the yearly review for 2018 is right here

And here is the overview for 2019

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take the plunge and get involved right now?

Click here for more details.

Stat of the Day, 21st September 2020

21 September 2020/in Horse Racing Blog/by Chris Worrall

Saturday's pick was...

5.20 Newton Abbot : Midnight Magic @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 7/2 (Chased leaders, driven along in 3rd after 4 out, plugged on)

Monday's pick runs in the...

1.45 Warwick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Kabrit @ 10/3 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 5, Novices Handicap Hurdle for 3yo+ over 2m on Good ground worth £2,794 to the winner...

Why?...

We start with the racecard...

...which tells us that we've a 5 yr old rated a narrow second on the neural ratings we licence from Dr Peter May and who is trained by one of a number of handlers that I keep an eye out for in Class 4/5 hurdles.

That trainer is Alistair Ralph and I'll now try to show you why I'm interested in his Class 4/5 hurdlers. If we go back to the start of 2017, Alistair's record shows...

... a strike marginally better than 1 in 8, almost 1 in 3 making the frame and just about profitable. These aren't bad figures to be fair, a trainer making profit (albeit very small) from blind backing at Industry SP is always a good starting point, but I don't want to have backed all 365 runners over the last 45 months, just to make 3pts profit, so what do I want?

Well, as my angle above says, I want to back his class 4/5 hurdlers, because over the same time frame, they are...

...which moves the 1 in 8 strike rate closer to 1 in 6, generates a good (30%+) ROI at ISP and if you can get an A/E of over 1.25 allied to an IV of over 1.50 from a set of data with more than 150 qualifiers, then you're on the way to profitability. Obviously they don't all win, but you're much better off with these 175 runners than playing with all 365.

With today's race in mind, it's also worth noting that these 175 are...

22/114 (19.3%) for 59.8pts (+52.5%) after 1-6 weeks rest
20/66 (30.3%) for 17.7pts (+26.8%) at odds of 8/1 and shorter
16/87 (18.4%) for 32.1pts (+36.9%) on good ground
16/84 (19.1%) for 47.7pts (+56.8%) in races worth less than £4,000
15/95 (15.8%) for 31.0pts (+32.6%) in handicaps
12/73 (16.4%) for 24.9pts (+34.1%) at trips shorter than 2m1f
7/45 (15.6%) for 37.1pts (+82.4%) at Class 5
7/25 (28%) for 31.1pts (+124.4%) off marks (OR) of 100-105
4/16 (25%) for 13.0pts (+81.25%) during September/October

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Kabrit @ 10/3 BOG as was available at 8.20am Monday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning). To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 1.45 Warwick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

Here is today's racecard

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

SotD Update, 14th to 19th September 2020

20 September 2020/in Horse Racing Blog/by Chris Worrall

A much better week this time around, finishes of 121 in the first half of the week wiped out September's losses and actually out us in front by Wednesday evening and then we had two narrow defeats at Ayr at decent prices before rounding off the week at Newton Abbot in a tricky looking 3m2f chase.

Midnight Magic was sadly unable to round off a decent week with a win, but did run creditably enough to finish third meaning five of our six picks made the frame in a week that put us back in profit for both the month and the year as a whole.

Chris

Selections & Results : 14/09/20 to 19/09/20

14/09 : Critical Thinking @ 15/2 BOG (6.375/1 after a 15p R4) WON at 7/1
15/09 : Charlie Arthur @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 4/1
16/09 : Dashing Roger @ 4/1 BOG WON at 4/1
17/09 : Glasses Up @ 11/2 BOG 5th at 4/1
18/09 : Nomadic Empire @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 5/1
19/09 : Midnight Magic @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 7/2

14/09/20 to 19/09/20 :
2 winning bets from 6 = 33.33% SR
P/L: +7.00pts

September 2020 :
3 winners from 16 = 18.75% SR
P/L: +0.50pts
ROI = +3.12%

2020 to date :
29 winners from 153 = 18.95% SR
P/L: +7.31pts
ROI = +4.78%

Overall:
685 winners from 2617 = 26.18% SR
P/L: +539.18pts
ROI: +20.60%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.
Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are now available here.
Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here
The full story from 2017 can be read here.
Whilst the yearly review for 2018 is right here

And here is the overview for 2019

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take the plunge and get involved right now?

Click here for more details.

Stat of the Day, 14th September 2020

14 September 2020/in Horse Racing Blog/by Chris Worrall

Saturday's pick was...

4.35 Musselburgh : Amazing Alba @ 3/1 BOG 8th at 3/1 (Towards rear, headway 2f out, not clear run over 1f out, soon no impression)

Monday's pick runs in the...

6.20 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Critical Thinking @ 15/2 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m½f on Tapeta worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

We start with the racecard...

...which shows a 6yr old former course and distance winner dropping in class today, set to be ridden by a 5lb claimer. He's also in the top three of our own ratings and his trainer is one of my group to look out for here at Wolverhampton.

Closer analysis of those facts show that this runner has won five times at this track and is now 3lbs better off than his last win here back in January, whilst all five course wins have come under the following broad criteria that are in place today...2018-20 / handicaps / 7f-8.5f / OR of 54-74 and sent off in the 3/1 to 14/1 range. When those have combined, he is...

Jockey Ray Dawson might be a 5lb claimer, but with over 540 rides under his belt, he's no stranger to the saddle and has been in good nick of late winning 9 of 54 (16.7% SR) over the past month returning Betfair SP profits of 41.15pts at an ROI of some 76.2% and since 2018 in Wolverhampton handicaps over 6f to 1m4f at odds of 14/1 and shorter, he is...

And finally to trainer David Loughnane's record here at Wolverhampton. He's actually one of a dozen trainers I keep an eye out for at this venue and in David's case, the runners that interest me the most are those handicappers sent off at odds of 3/1 and bigger over trips of 7f to 1m4f, because since the start of 2018, they are...

...with a near 1 in 6 strike rate generating profits beyond 76p in the pound, including of note today...

18/95 (19%) for 86.3pts (+90.8%) at odds of 5/1 to 16/1
16/102 (15.7%) for 104.2pts (+102.2%) were unplaced LTO
14/78 (18%) for 70.7pts (+90.6%) during August to December
7/39 (18%) for 30.7pts (+78.6%) over this course and distance
6/28 (21.4%) for 78.3pts (+279.7%) with a jockey claiming 5/7 lbs

...whilst horses unplaced LTO sent off at 5/1 to 16/1 during August to December are 11/38 (29% SR) for 81.9pts (+215.6% ROI) with 5lb claimers riding 3 winners from 8 (37.5%) for 25.1pts (+314.3%)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Critical Thinking @ 15/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.05am Monday (up to 9/1 in places!), but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning). To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 6.20 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

SotD Update, 7th to 12th September 2020

13 September 2020/in Horse Racing Blog/by Chris Worrall

Well, what a week that was. And not in a good way, I'm afraid. Two placers from five is pretty poor going and only one runner actually looked like winning which just isn't good enough for our purposes.

I should clarify, I suppose. SotD is NOT a tipping service per se, but more of a way of finding a way into a race via stats and more importantly the Geegeez racecards. The aim is to find a runner that will perform better than the price available would suggest it will and by the large we've done that over the past 9 years or so.

However, we're here and it's now and the current status is that September is proving to be a struggle for me, as was July & August. I know in my heart that it won't continue forever and we'll be back amongst the winners in due course, but the bare facts are that all of 2020's profit has disappeared now and in mid-September, we're back to square one.

I'm down, but not yet beaten and I'll be picking myself up to go again tomorrow. Hopefully you'll be with me.

Chris

Selections & Results : 07/09/20 to 12/09/20

07/09 : Shady McCoy @ 9/2 BOG non-runner
08/09 : Cotton End @ 9/2 BOG 5th at 7/2
09/09 : Gold Arch @ 5/2 BOG 2nd at 4/1
10/09 : Under Curfew @ 9/2 BOG 3rd at 9/2
11/09 : Julie Johnston @ 7/2 BOG 5th at 5/1
12/09 : Amazing Alba @ 3/1 BOG 8th at 3/1

07/09/20 to 12/09/20 :
0 winning bet from 5 = 0.00% SR
P/L: -5.00pts

September 2020 :
1 winner from 10 = 10.00% SR
P/L: -6.50pts
ROI = -65.00%

2020 to date :
27 winners from 147 = 18.37% SR
P/L: +0.31pts
ROI = +0.21%

Overall:
683 winners from 2611 = 26.16% SR
P/L: +532.18pts
ROI: +20.38%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.
Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are now available here.
Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here
The full story from 2017 can be read here.
Whilst the yearly review for 2018 is right here

And here is the overview for 2019

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take the plunge and get involved right now?

Click here for more details.

Stat of the Day, 7th September 2020

7 September 2020/in Horse Racing Blog/by Chris Worrall

Saturday's pick was...

3.10 Kempton : Recovery Run @ 5/2 BOG 2nd at 13/8 (Tracked leader, close up when ridden 2f out, ran on well to dispute lead close home, not quite match winner)

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.20 Leicester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Shady McCoy @ 9/2 BOG

...in a 13-runner, Class 3, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 7f on Good To Soft ground worth £7,439 to the winner...

Why?...

We'll start with the racecard...

...which, whilst not as informative as some other days, tell us that we've an in-form horse (2 wins from last three starts) who scores well on the Geegeez Speed ratings and who will be ridden by a jockey with a good recent record here at Leicester with 9 wins from 35 (25.7% SR) since 2016.

Our boy might well be 10 yrs old now, but seems to be enjoying his own personal Indian Summer, having won two of three this year to take his career record on the Flat to a more than acceptable 11 wins from 58 and that 19% strike rate has yielded the following under today's conditions...

9 wins and 11 further places from 51 for trainer Ian Williams
8 wins, 10 places from 38 over a 7f trip
4 wins, 2 places from 11 on Good to Soft
2 wins from 3 in 2020
1 win plus 1 place from 3 under jockey William Buick
1 win plus 1 place from 2 here at Leciester
and 1 win, 1 place from 2 over course and distance

And now to trainer Ian Williams, who has been very good over the years at getting horses to win back to back races on the Flat, especially when not left off the track too long and when the market deems them to have at least a fighting chance. So, basically my Ian Williams LTO winner micro-angle is to look for those sent off at 7/1 and shorter within 45 days of that last run/win and since 2014, such runners are...

...with a win ratio of almost 2 in 5 at an A/E approaching 1.5 generating over 55p in the pound profits at Betfair SP giving us grounds for optimism here today, especially as they contain the following of relevance today...

36/86 (41.9%) for 58.49pts (+68%) in races worth less than £17k
34/91 (37.4%) for 50.5pts (+55.5%) in handicaps
16/27 (59.3%) for 26.42pts (+97.9%) at 1-10 dslr
13/28 (46.4%) for 28.91pts (+103.3%) during September/October
8/15 (53.3%) for 26.7pts (+178%) over 6/7 furlongs
5/10 (50%) for 13.77pts (+137.7%) on Good to Soft ground
2/3 (66.6%) for 6.74pts (+224.8%) under jockey William Buick
and 1 from 2 (50%) for 0.97pts (+48.5%) here at Leicester...

...whilst from the above, in sub-£17k handicaps at 1-10 dslr, they are 16 from 23 (69.6% SR) for 30.42pts (+132.3% ROI), including a perfect 6 from 6 at an A/E of 3.77 in September/October generating 19.42pts profit (+326.6% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Shady McCoy @ 9/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.00am Monday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning). To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 3.20 Leicester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

SotD Update, 31st August to 5th September 2020

6 September 2020/in Horse Racing Blog/by Chris Worrall

It's all a bit groundhog day again this week. It just seems to be one winner per week at present and sadly that proved to be the case again.

I'm frustrated/disappointed at the numbers of late, but I'm generally happy with the picks, as we're there or thereabouts most days. Poor tactics cost us an 8/1 winner on Monday and we'd a nice victory on Tuesday. Wednesday & Saturday saw us bag runners-up slots, whilst Thursday's runner unshipped his rider when going really well and to top it off, Friday's pick was undone by the Ascot draw.

These aren't excuses, they're facts, but the main over-riding fact is that we just didn't do well enough, so we'll try again this week!

Chris

Selections & Results : 31/08/20 to 05/09/20

31/08 : Cape Greco @ 8/1 BOG 5th at 10/3
01/09 : Kayewhykelly @ 5/2 BOG WON at 6/4
02/09 : Swiss Pride @ 11/2 BOG 2nd at 5/1
03/09 : Classic Escape @ 5/2 BOG UR at 5/2
04/09 : Gin Palace @ 5/1 BOG 6th at 11/2
05/09 : Recovery Run @ 5/2 BOG 2nd at 13/8

31/08/20 to 05/09/20 :
1 winning bet from 6 = 16.66% SR
P/L: -2.50pts

August 2020 :
5 winners from 26 = 19.23% SR
P/L: -3.88pts
ROI = -14.92%

September 2020 :
1 winner from 5 = 20.00% SR
P/L: -1.50pts
ROI = -30.00%

2020 to date :
27 winners from 142 = 19.01% SR
P/L: +5.31pts
ROI = +3.74%

Overall:
683 winners from 2606 = 26.21% SR
P/L: +537.18pts
ROI: +20.61%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.
Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are now available here.
Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here
The full story from 2017 can be read here.
Whilst the yearly review for 2018 is right here

And here is the overview for 2019

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take the plunge and get involved right now?

Click here for more details.

Stat of the Day, 31st August 2020

31 August 2020/in Horse Racing Blog/by Chris Worrall

Saturday's pick was...

4.40 Redcar : Sambucca Spirit @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 5/1 (Pressed leader, ridden to lead 2f out, headed entering final furlong, kept on but no chance with winner)

Monday's pick runs in the...

12.00 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Cape Greco @ 8/1 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 6, A/w Handicap for 3yo+ over 6f on Fibresand worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

SotD Update, 24th to 29th August 2020

30 August 2020/in Horse Racing Blog/by Chris Worrall

We had a great start to the week with a 5/1 winner and a 4/1 shot beaten by just a short head, but things went downhill from there. In fairness, Saturday's runner-up ran a decent race, but was well beaten by a better performer on the day.

The upshot is that we're back where we were last Sunday, -2.88pts for the month, but it makes the maths very simple. If Monday's runner fails to win, we lose 3.88pts on the month and if we're to make profit from August, we need a 3/1 (or bigger) winner.

The fact that Tuesday's narrow defeat could be the difference between success and failure for the month merely serves to highlight the very fine margins we have to work within every time we stick our neck out and recommend a horse.

Can/will I land a 3/1 winner tomorrow? Well, I certainly hope so!

Chris

Selections & Results : 24/08/20 to 29/08/20

24/08 : Equidae @ 4/1 BOG WON at 5/1
25/08 : Do You Know What @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 4/1
26/08 : Millie The Minx @ 4/1 BOG 5th at 11/2
27/08 : Escalade @ 4/1 BOG 8th at 7/2
28/08 : Compadre @ 11/4 BOG 8th at 5/1
29/08 : Sambucca Spirit @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 5/1

24/08/20 to 29/08/20 :
1 winning bet from 6 = 16.66% SR
P/L: +0.00pts

August 2020 :
5 winners from 25 = 20.00% SR
P/L: -2.88pts
ROI = -11.52%

2020 to date :
26 winners from 136 = 19.11% SR
P/L: +7.81pts
ROI = +5.74%

Overall:
682 winners from 2601 = 26.22% SR
P/L: +539.68pts
ROI: +20.74%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.
Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are now available here.
Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here
The full story from 2017 can be read here.
Whilst the yearly review for 2018 is right here

And here is the overview for 2019

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take the plunge and get involved right now?

Click here for more details.

Stat of the Day, 24th August 2020

24 August 2020/in Horse Racing Blog/by Chris Worrall

Saturday's pick was...

4.10 York : Ben Macdui @ 3/1 BOG 5th at 7/2 (Tracked leaders, ridden and every chance over 1f out, no extra towards finish)

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.10 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Equidae @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 14-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 7½f on Good ground worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

Going to keep things nice and simple today, starting as usual with our self-explanatory racecard...

So, horse running pretty well, top of the Speed Ratings and representing an in-form yard. The elephant in the room from the racecard is trainer Iain Jardine's poor return over the last year at this venue denoted by the C1, of course. However that refers to all his runners here over the past 12 months, NH & Flat, handicap and non-hcp etc etc. It also only represents a small time frame and in certain circumstances, the Jardine runners are worth following here, as...

...since 2015 in Class 4-6 Flat handicaps over 6f to 1m5½f at odds of 7/4 to 13/2, the numbers are far more attractive at...

... an A/E of over 1.5, a near 1 in 3 win ratio and almost 65p in the pound profits at Betfair SP are all good to see and eliminate plenty of bets we'd not want to be making. And from those 48 runners above...

14/41 (34.2%) for 33.7pts (+82.2%) racing off a mark (OR) higher than 55
11/29 (37.9%) for 25.8pts (+88.9%) had raced in the previous 15 days
11/26 (42.3%) for 26.2pts (+100.8%) had made the frame LTO
and 6/12 (50%) for 17.1pts (+142.5%) had finished third LTO...

...whilst those racing off a mark higher than 55 within 15 days of a placed finish LTO are 7 from 14 (50% SR) for 17.2pts (+122.6% ROI), including 3 winners from 5 (60%) for 10pts (+200%) from those who were third LTO...

...and this simple approach points to... a 1pt win bet on Equidae @ 4/1 BOG (or bigger in places) as was available at 8.05am Monday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning). To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 3.10 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

SotD Update, 17th to 22nd August 2020

23 August 2020/in Horse Racing Blog/by Chris Worrall

We kicked off the week at -4.67pts for August, but I wasn't too concerned as it was Ebor week. I checked and re-checked my logs and yes, Ebor is a good time for me. I've made good money from the meeting every year for as long as I can remember, especially with two year olds, so bring it on!

Sadly, it was a week that disappointed and frustrated in equal measures, York became a graveyard for my personal bets and the three I put up for SotD all failed to make the frame. Thankfully we'd bagged a couple of winners earlier in the week to prevent a second consecutive wipeout.

Both of those winners were however frustratingly subjected to Rule 4 deductions denying us 1.72pts profit, meaning that we enter the run-in for August still 1 winner/2.88pts short of parity. It's far from over, of course, but I think we're going to need three winners before the month is out.

Chris

Selections & Results : 17/08/20 to 22/08/20

17/08 : Oso Rapido @ 4/1 BOG 6th at 5/1
18/08 : Saluti @ 7/2 BOG (2.98/1 after a 15p R4) WON at 9/4
19/08 : Mon Palois @ 4/1 BOG (2.8/1 after R4) WON at 13/8
20/08 : Mark of the Man @ 6/1 BOG 6th at 6/1
21/08 : Yazaman @ 9/2 BOG 6th at 3/1
22/08 : Ben Macdui @ 3/1 BOG 5th at 7/2

17/08/20 to 22/08/20 :
2 winning bets from 6 = 33.33% SR
P/L: +1.78pts

August 2020 :
4 winners from 19 = 21.05% SR
P/L: -2.88pts
ROI = -15.17%

2020 to date :
25 winners from 130 = 19.23% SR
P/L: +7.81pts
ROI = +6.01%

Overall:
681 winners from 2595 = 26.24% SR
P/L: +539.68pts
ROI: +20.79%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.
Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are now available here.
Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here
The full story from 2017 can be read here.
Whilst the yearly review for 2018 is right here

And here is the overview for 2019

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take the plunge and get involved right now?

Click here for more details.

Stat of the Day, 17th August 2020

17 August 2020/in Horse Racing Blog/by Chris Worrall

Saturday's pick was...

5.55 Newbury : Songkran @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 4/1 (Slight lead, narrowly headed halfway, in front again 3f out, headed over 1f out, no extra in 3rd inside final furlong)

Monday's pick runs in the...

2.20 Catterick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Oso Rapido @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 13-runner, Class 5, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 7f on Good To Soft ground worth £3,493 to the winner...

Why?...

We start, as is usually the case, with the racecard...

This 3 yr old gelding won a similar Class 5, 7f flat handicap two starts and 11 months ago before a 311 day spell on the sidelines. He returned from that long break to finish third over 7.5f at Beverley, when beaten by just a head and a neck in a contest where the write-up says...chased leader, ridden to lead over 1f out, headed and no extra towards finish...

I'd expect him to come on for that run 24 days ago and the slight drop back in trip should also help him see this one out at a track where our report suite suggests that today's trainer and jockey fare well together.

And it's the David O'Meara/Danny Tudhope/Catterick trainer/jockey/course angle that I'll be pursuing today. That recent 50% strike rate is, of course, excellent, but I think we need a few more in our sample size to hang a bet upon, so how about...O'Meara + Tudhope + Catterick + 4/1 & shorter + 2016-now? Which gives us...

from which there has been...

16/34 (47.1%) for 14.97pts (+44%) over trips of 5-7f
16/34 (47.1%) for 12.25pts (+36%) wit 2-4 yr olds
14/28 (50%) for 11.45pts (+40.9%) from July onwards
12/23 (52.2%) for 11.5pts (+50%) in races worth less than £4,000
11/23 (47.8%) for 4.19pts (+18.2%) from horses placed LTO
9/12 (75%) for 19.71pts (+164.2%) in fields of 11-15 runners
8/20 (40%) for 5.4pts (+27%) at Class 5
and 5 from 8 (62.5%) for 9.26pts (+115.7%) on good to soft ground...

...and a composite angle from the above? Hmmm, OK, how about 2-4 yr olds racing over 5-7f for less than £4k from July onwards at 7 from 11 (63.6% SR) and 7.03pts (+63.9% ROI) profit? An angle that also includes a 100% strike rate in fields of 11+ runners (4 from 4), 71.4% from runners placed LTO (5 from 7) and 50% strike rates (2 from 4) at class 5 or on good to soft ground...

...pointing towards... a 1pt win bet on Oso Rapido @ 4/1 BOG as was available at 8.00am Monday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning). To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 2.20 Catterick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

SotD Update, 10th to 15th August 2020

16 August 2020/in Horse Racing Blog/by Chris Worrall

A brutally honest assessment of the week was that it was dreadful.

The only positive I can find about a sequence of results reading 875443 is that they did at least improve as the week went on, but that's about it.

To mix a few sporting metaphors, it's now half-time for August and we're behind the 8-ball. Strike rate is below par, we're almost 5pts down and we need to hope it's a game of two halves.

All is not lost, however, we've plenty of opportunities ahead of us, starting tomorrow.

Chris

Selections & Results : 10/08/20 to 15/08/20

10/08 : Power of States @ 4/1 BOG 8th at 9/2
11/08 : Shesaheart @ 4/1 BOG 7th at 5/1
12/08 : Rousayan @ 12/1 BOG 5th at 9/1
13/08 : Tell William @ 11/4 BOG 4th at 9/4
14/08 : Bossipop @ 7/2 BOG 4th at 9/2
15/08 : Songkran @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 4/1

10/08/20 to 15/08/20 :
0 winning bets from 6 = 0.00% SR
P/L: -6.00pts

August 2020 :
2 winners from 13 = 15.38% SR
P/L: -4.67pts
ROI = -35.92%

2020 to date :
23 winners from 124 = 18.54% SR
P/L: +6.03pts
ROI = +4.86%

Overall:
679 winners from 2589 = 26.22% S.R
P/L: +537.90pts
ROI: +20.77%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.
Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are now available here.
Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here
The full story from 2017 can be read here.
Whilst the yearly review for 2018 is right here

And here is the overview for 2019

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take the plunge and get involved right now?

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Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take the plunge and get involved right now?

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take the plunge and get involved right now?

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take the plunge and get involved right now?

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take the plunge and get involved right now?

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take the plunge and get involved right now?

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take the plunge and get involved right now?

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take the plunge and get involved right now?