Posts

Stat of the Day, 22nd November 2017

Tuesday's Result :

1.40 Lingfield : Short Work @ 7/2 BOG 8th at 11/2 Prominent on outside, ridden and not quicken over 1f out, weakened final 100 yards

Next up is Wednesday's...

4.40 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Roman Spinner @ 7/2 BOG

A Class 5, 2yo A/W Nursery over 7f on Polytrack worth £2,588 to the winner.

About which I'll elaborate later...

...but until then, it's ... a 1pt win bet on Roman Spinner @ 7/2 BOG which was generally available at 5.45pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.40 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 21st November 2017

Monday's Result :

2.40 Plumpton : Chef D'Equipe @ 9/4 BOG 6th at 15/8 Keen, held up in last pair, pushed along after 3 out, plugged on, never on terms. Held up way too far off the pace IMO and was never really put into the race. Seems like trial & error tactics going on with this horse, as opposed to any real plan.

Next up is Tuesday's...

1.40 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Short Work @ 7/2 BOG

A Class 4, 3yo+, A/W handicap sprint over 6f on Polytrack worth £4,690 to the winner.

A fairly brief back to basics style approach today with a 4 yr old gelding who already has 5 wins and a place from 6 starts over today's 6 furlong trip, whilst in the 5 races with jockey Danny Tudhope on his back, he has 4 wins and a place, so the task ahead should be right up his street.

He's trained by David O'Meara, whose best figures are admittedly achieved in the North and in Scotland, but there is a niche where he excels here too. And that's with runners priced at 4/1 and shorter on the A/W here. We are only looking at 17 runners in recent times, but with 9 winners (52.9% SR) producing 16.6pts (+97.6% ROI) profit, they cannot be ignored. Nor can the fact that of those 17 runners, Danny Tudhope has 4 winners from 6 (66.6%) for 10.47pts (+174.6%).

My final point of reference is possibly normally one of your own starting points, ie the Geegeez racecards. And I'm looking at the pace first and it tells me that horses who lead fare best over this course and distance and our boy is one of three runners with the joint highest pace ranking.

These three "pacesetters" are drawn in 6, 7 and 8, so we're in the pace pocket and the pace/draw heatmap suggests leaders drawn higher get the best results, so from stall 8, we should be well placed.

...all of which points to ... a 1pt win bet on Short Work @ 7/2 BOG which was available from Bet365, Betfair, Paddy Power, Skybet & Sunbets at 5.40pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.40 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 20th November 2017

Saturday's Result :

1.40 Wetherby : Early Retirement @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 5/1 Held up in touch in 4th place, led 3 out, clear before last, soon ridden, kept on and headed towards finish, beaten by a length.

Next up is Monday's...

2.40 Plumpton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Chef D'Equipe @ 9/4 BOG

A Class 4, 3yo+, handicap hurdle over 2m 4.5f on Good to Soft ground worth £3,120 to the winner.

This horse interests me from several angles, so I'll try to keep each strand of interest pretty brief...

Trainer Philip Hobbs is 10 from 24 in the last 2 weeks, so we know the yard is in decent nick.

This often tends to be the case, as in November & December of 2012-17, his hurdlers are 86/416 (20.7% SR) for 354.5pts (+85.2% ROI) with handicap hurdlers winning 18 of 98 (18.4%) for 81.1 pts (+82.8%) in November.

Your first 30 days for just £1

He doesn't send many here to Plumpton, but since the start of last year he's 4 from 11 at this venue with his hurdlers winning 4 of 9 and he sends just one here today, who also happens to be his only runner anywhere.

On days since the start of 2012, when Mr Hobbs is represented by a single NH runner, he has 70 winners from 307 (22.8% SR) for 65.3pts (+21.3% ROI).

This one is likely to go off as favourites and since 2103 the yard is 48/149 (32.2% SR) for 30.5pts (+20.5% ROI) with handicap hurdle favourites.

And away from just the Hobbs yard, I'll close with a more general stat : NH handicap hurdles / 2012-17 / 5 to 7 yr olds / carrying 11-13 to 12-02 = 60/187 (32.1% SR) for 61.4pts (+32.9% ROI) with favourites winning 57/170 (33.5%) for 56.5pts (+33.3%)

...but first ... a 1pt win bet on Chef D'Equipe @ 9/4 BOG which was widely available at 8.05pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.40 Plumpton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 20th November 2017

Saturday's Result :

1.40 Wetherby : Early Retirement @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 5/1 Held up in touch in 4th place, led 3 out, clear before last, soon ridden, kept on and headed towards finish, beaten by a length.

Next up is Monday's...

2.40 Plumpton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Chef D'Equipe @ 9/4 BOG

A Class 4, 3yo+, handicap hurdle over 2m 4.5f on Good to Soft ground worth £3,120 to the winner.

This horse interests me from several angles, so I'll try to keep each strand of interest pretty brief...

Trainer Philip Hobbs is 10 from 24 in the last 2 weeks, so we know the yard is in decent nick.

This often tends to be the case, as in November & December of 2012-17, his hurdlers are 86/416 (20.7% SR) for 354.5pts (+85.2% ROI) with handicap hurdlers winning 18 of 98 (18.4%) for 81.1 pts (+82.8%) in November.

He doesn't send many here to Plumpton, but since the start of last year he's 4 from 11 at this venue with his hurdlers winning 4 of 9 and he sends just one here today, who also happens to be his only runner anywhere.

On days since the start of 2012, when Mr Hobbs is represented by a single NH runner, he has 70 winners from 307 (22.8% SR) for 65.3pts (+21.3% ROI).

This one is likely to go off as favourites and since 2103 the yard is 48/149 (32.2% SR) for 30.5pts (+20.5% ROI) with handicap hurdle favourites.

And away from just the Hobbs yard, I'll close with a more general stat : NH handicap hurdles / 2012-17 / 5 to 7 yr olds / carrying 11-13 to 12-02 = 60/187 (32.1% SR) for 61.4pts (+32.9% ROI) with favourites winning 57/170 (33.5%) for 56.5pts (+33.3%)

...but first ... a 1pt win bet on Chef D'Equipe @ 9/4 BOG which was widely available at 8.05pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.40 Plumpton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

SotD Update, 13th to 18th November 2017

OK, so a second 0 from 6 wipeout on the bounce was not the way we wanted to kick off SotD's 7th year, but that's what we got, I'm afraid. I don't believe in being overdramatic about weekly losses and I rarely crow about it when we've had a great one, as betting on racing is always a rollercoaster ride.

I would like to focus on the positives, of course, so here goes...

Despite no winners from 12 in the last fortnight since I got back from holiday (maybe I need another break, Matt?), 7 of the picks (58.3%) have made the frame with 5 of them (41.7%) finishing as runners-up. In fact, had yesterday's runner not been the latest to get chinned virtually on the line, the week would have broke even.

I think what I'm trying to say is that the picks aren't any better or worse than previously, we're just not getting the breaks/results we may have enjoyed previously.

That said, 2017 still performs at a higher strike rate and higher ROI than our overall 6 year average, so this is quite likely to be that correction in results/figures I spent much of the first 8 months of the warning you about!

Selections & Results : 13/11/17 to 18/11/17 :

13/11 : Salto Chisco @ 3/1 BOG 4th at 4/1
14/11 : Arden Denis @ 9/2 BOG PU at 11/2
15/11 : Midnight Tour @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 7/1
16/11 : Miracle Garden @ 7/2 BOG 5th at 9/4
17/11 : Choral Clan @ 10/3 BOG 2nd at 5/1
18/11 : Early Retirement @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 5/1

13/11/17 to 18/11/17 :
0 winning bets from 6 = 0.00% SR
P/L: -6.00pts

November 2017:
1 winner from 15 = 6.66% SR
P/L: -11.60pts
ROI = -77.33%

2017 so far:
73 winners from 263 = 27.76% SR
P/L: +86.90pts
ROI = +33.04%

Overall:
513 winners from 1854 = 27.67% S.R
P/L: +461.62pts
ROI: +24.90%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.

Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are now available here.

Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take your £1, 30-day trial right now?

Click here for more details.

Stat of the Day, 18th November 2017

Friday's Result :

8.15 Chelmsford : Choral Clan @ 10/3 BOG 2nd at 5/1 Led early, tracked leaders, effort on inside when not much room over 1f out, ridden and every chance inside final furlong, not quicken close home.

Next up is Saturday's...

1.40 Wetherby :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Early Retirement @ 3/1 BOG

A Class 4, 4yo+, handicap hurdle over 3m 0.5f on Good to Soft ground worth £3,574 to the winner.

And a 5 yr old gelding who comes here on a hat-trick after a couple of wins at Southwell back in March and then again just 23 days ago.

His trainer Caroline Bailey doesn't send many here to Wetherby for some reason, but I'm sure it's not because of results, because since 2010 her runners are 8/38 (21.1% SR) for 43.7pts (+115% ROI), including...

  • males @ 7/36 (19.4%) for 37.5pts (+104.1%)
  • in hcps : 6/32 (18.75%) for 5.96pts (+18.6%)
  • over trips of 2m4.5f and beyond = 8/28 (28.6%) for 53.7pts (+191.8%)
  • at odds of 6/4 to 8/1 = 7/24 (29.2%) for 17.8pts (+74%)
  • and at Class 4 : 6/18 (33.3%) for 50.25pts (+279.2%)

Jockey Harry Skelton bypasses Cheltenham to ride here today and hopefully he'll bring his great recent form with him that has seen him notch up 12 winners from 39 in the last two weeks. Closer inspection upon his record gives some explanation about why he might be here instead of HQ, as he's 21/52 (40.4% SR) for 24.5pts (+47.2% ROI) on this track since 2014, from which...

  • at odds of 6/1 and shorter = 21/43 (48.8%) for 33.5pts (+78%)
  • over hurdles = 10/27 (37%) for 8.7pts (+32.2%)
  • in handicaps = 10/23 (43.5%) for 21.3pts (+92.6%)
  • at Class 4 : 8/19 (42.1%) for 9.44pts (+49.7%)
  • and in November : 5/14 (35.7%) for 7.16pts (+51.1%)

And one last thing about the horse, he's by Daylami whose 5yr old handicap hurdlers are 9/32 (28.1% SR) for 33.3pts (+104% ROI) over the last two years, with those priced shorter than 5/1 winning 7 of 17 (41.2%) for 7.6pts at an ROI of 44.8%.

...giving us ... a 1pt win bet on Early Retirement @ 3/1 BOG which was available from BetVictor & Paddy Power at 7.05pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.40 Wetherby

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 17th November 2017

Thursday's Result :

7.25 Chelmsford : Miracle Garden @ 7/2 BOG 5th at 9/4 Keen tracked leaders, ridden 2f out, no extra inside final furlong.

Next up is Friday's...

8.15 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Choral Clan @ 10/3 BOG

A Class 5, 3yo+, A/W Handicap over a mile and a quarter on Polytrack worth £5,175 to the winner.

And a 6yr old gelding whose career record of 5/43 is OK, but just OK. However, all 5 wins have come from 28 runs on Polytrack, from which he's 5/25 (20% SR) for 14.73pts (+58.9% ROI) under today's jockey Jack Mitchell and those runs include...

  • at odds of 5/2 to 13/2 : 4/15 (26.7%) for 9.49pts (+63.3%)
  • off a mark of 61 to 70: 3/8 (37.5%) for 19.46pts (+243.3%)
  • after a break of just 12-18 days : 3/5 (60%) for 22.46pts (+449.2%)
  • and 2/2 (100%) for 10.22pts (+511%) when all three of the above happened.

He is trained by Brendan Powell, whose A/W handicappers are 29/247 (11.7% SR) for 159.7pts (+64.7% ROI) since the start of 2013, including...

  • 3 to 7 yr olds are 27/216 (142.5%) for 173.7pts (+80.4%)
  • at Class 5 to 7 : 28/211 (13.3%) for 192.8pts (+91.4%)
  • and 3 to 7 yr olds at Class 5 to 7 are 26/185 (14.1%) for 201.8pts (+109.1%)

And of those above 185 runners...

  • on Polytrack : 21/143 (14.7%) for 173.4pts (+121.2%)
  • 1-25 days since last run : 20/106 (18.9%) for 178.2pts (+168.1%)
  • and on Polytrack, 1-25 days since last run : 16/81 (19.8% SR) for 144.2pts (+178%)

And finally (!) from these 81, 3-7 yo, C 5-7, 1-25 dslr Poly runners...

  • 11-25 dslr = 13/61 (21.3%) for 130.6pts (+214.1%)
  • males are 12/52 (23.1%) for 77.1pts (+148.2%)
  • Class 5= 6/33 (18.2%) for 35.07pts (+106.3%)
  • at odds of EVS to 8/1 : 10/31 (32.3%) for 30.4pts (+97.9%)
  • top 5 finish LTO = 7/29 (24.1%) for 12pts (+41.3%)
  • previous course winners are 5/19 (26.3%) for 11.76pts (+61.9%)
  • and in November : 5/13 (38.5%) for 99.7pts (+766.9%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Choral Clan @ 10/3 BOG which was available from SkyBet at 5.55pm on Thursday. Only 4 firms had priced this up when I went to press. Betfair & Paddy Power offer 3/1 BOG, whilst Bet365 offer 7/2 BOG, so I've taken the middle option. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 8.15 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 16th November 2017

Wednesday's Result :

2.50 Bangor : Midnight Tour @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 7/1 In touch, headway 3 out, chased leaders next, kept on same pace closing stages, beaten by 2.75 lengths.

Next up is Thursday's...

7.25 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Miracle Garden @ 7/2 BOG

A Class 5, 3yo+, A/W Handicap over a mile on Polytrack worth £5,175 to the winner.

Featuring a 5 yr old gelding who arrives here in decent nick having finished 132 in his last three outings and was only held off by a neck last time out. That was here at Chelmsford a week ago over 7f when staying on well and finishing strongest.

The winning line came fractionally too soon for him that day, so I expect the extra furlong to help him here in his bid to improve an already decent looking return of 5 wins from 22 (22.7% SR) on the A/W, including...

  • 5 wins & 4 places from 13 at Classes 5 & 6
  • 4 wins & 3 places from 7 in September to November
  • 2 wins & 3 places from 6 on Polytrack
  • and 2 wins and a place from four 12/13 runner races.

His trainer, Ian Williams, has had 8 winners from 27 (29.6% SR) runners in Class 5/6 contests here at Chelmsford to date and a simple £10 bet on each would have produced £92.10 profit, not earth shattering, but (a) enough for a night out and more importantly (b) an ROI of 34.1%!

Of these 27 lower grade runners here...

  • males are 8/23 (34.8%) for 13.21pts (+57.4%)
  • at trips of 7 to 10 furlongs : 7/20 (35%) for 4.09pts (+20.45%)
  • finished 2nd, 3rd or 4th LTO : 6/11 (54.5%) for 10.54pts (+95.8%)

AND...his lower grade males running over 7 to 10 furlongs here after a losing top 4 finish LTO are 6/9 (66.6% SR) for 12.54pts (+139.4%)

Yet, for as impressive as the above numbers might be, they do lack the usual SotD meatiness of sample size, so  I'll divert you to the fact that this one is turned back out pretty quickly after last Thursday's defeat, because this is one of Ian Williams' preferred methods, as since the start of 2011, his runners who have rested for less than 10 days are 107/436 (24.5% SR) for 147.1pts (+33.7% ROI), of which...

  • handicappers are 93/356 (26.1%) for 185.7pts (+52.2%)
  • on the A/W : 38/178 (21.4%) for 109.7pts (+61.6%)
  • and in A/W handicaps : 33/153 (21.6%) for 115.5pts (+75.5%)

...and from the above 153 quickly turned around A/W handicappers...

  •  those running on Polytrack are 27/111 (24.3%) for 87pts (+78.4%)
  • those finishing 2nd, 3rd or 4th LTO are 21/73 (28.8%) for 34.8pts (+47.7%)
  • those racing against 11 or 12 opponents are 11/39 (28.2%) for 106.8pts (+273.7%)
  • and here at Chelmsford : 4/9 (44.4%) for 5.23pts (+58.1%)

...all of which gives us... a 1pt win bet on Miracle Garden @ 7/2 BOG which was available from Bet365 & Betwayat 5.40pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.25 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 15th November 2017

Tuesday's Result :

1.50 Lingfield : Arden Denis @ 9/2 BOG PU at 11/2 Mid-division on inside, mistake 6th, weakened, tailed off when mistake 4 out, pulled up before 3 out.

Next up is Wednesday's...

2.50 Bangor :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Midnight Tour @ 4/1 BOG

A Class 2, 4yo+, Handicap Hurdle over 2m3.5f on Soft ground worth £14,076 to the winner.

Featuring a 7 yr old mare who won a Listed hurdle race by 6 lengths last time out. That was at Cheltenham some 30 weeks (approx 7 months) ago, but this reappearance certainly represents a drop in class for a runner that is...

  • 3/7 going left handed
  • 4/6 at odds shorter than 5/1
  • 2/5 since moving to Alan King's yard
  • 2/4 in handicap hurdles
  • 2/3 on Soft ground
  • 2/3 after a break of longer than 4 months
  • 1/2 under jockey Wayne Hutchinson
  • 1/1 here at Bangor
  • and 1/1 running in November

Her trainer, Alan King's handicap hurdlers who won LTO are 16/83 (19.3% SR) for 26.3pts (+31.6% ROI) since the start of 2013, from which...

  • those priced at 6/1 and shorter are 14/49 (28.6%) for 8.6pts (+17.6%)
  • those ridden by Wayne Hutchinson are 9/43 (20.9%) for 43.5pts (+101.1%)
  • and those ridden by Wayne Hutchinson at 6/1 and shorter are 7/27 (25.9%) for 7.8pts (+29%)

Whilst since the start of last year, Alan's runners are 9/25 (36% SR) for 13.8pts (+55.1% ROI)  here at Bangor, including...

  • under Wayne H : 7/20 (35%) for 6.6pts (+33.1%)
  • hurdlers are 5/12 (41.7%) for 6.4pts (+53.6%)
  • and handicappers are 4/9 (44.4%) for 9.8pts (+108.5%)

The last thing that I'm going to mention is that Midnight Tour was sired by Midnight Legend. Regular/long-term readers of SotD will read extensively about the prowess of the Midnight Legend offspring, so I'm not going to churn out loads of data today, but suffice to say that his female handicap hurdlers do really well and they don't mind a bit of mud!

...directing us to... a 1pt win bet on Midnight Tour @ 4/1 BOG which was widely available at 5.50pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.50 Bangor

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 14th November 2017

Monday's Result :

4.00 Kempton : Salto Chisco @ 3/1 BOG 4th at 4/1 Chased leaders, outpaced before 2 out, 4th and well held when awkward last.

Next up is Tuesday's...

1.50 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Arden Denis @ 9/2 BOG

A Class 4, 4yo+, Novice Handicap Chase over 2m4f on Soft ground worth £6,963 to the winner.

And an 8 yr old gelding who finished the last campaign in fine form with 2 wins and 2 places from his last five starts (14313). He's been off track for 8 months, as have many November runners and with regards to his stamina today, wins at 2m4.5f & 2m5.5f allied to a record of 2 wins and 2 places from five on Soft should help dispel any fears about staying.

His trainer, Neil Mulholland, already has 2 wins and 2 places from five runners at this venue this year (P3113), whilst jockey Tom Scudamore is 12/55 (21.8% SR) for 16.9pts (+30.7% ROI) here since 2010, broken down as follows...

  • on males : 11/42 (26.2%) for 21.1pts (+50.2%)
  • on 6 to 10 yr olds : 10/34 (29.4%) for 30.4pts (+89.3%)
  • on ground worse than good to soft : 9/31 (29%) for 14.3pts (+46.1%)
  • in handicaps : 8/31 (25.8%) for 22.9pts (+73.8%)
  • at Class 4 : 8/31 (25.8%) for 19.8pts (+63.9%)
  • at odds of 2/1 to 15/2 : 9/29 (31%) for 22.8pts (+78.6%)
  • over fences : 5/16 (31.25%) for 26.4pts (+165%)
  • at 2m3.5f/2m4f : 4/16 (25%) for 7.38pts (+46.1%)
  • and on horses returning from a layoff of over 6 months : 3/9 (33.3%) for 9.73pts (+108.1%)

There's also the possibility that Arden Denis will go off as favourite and whilst blindly backing favs is a shortcut to the poor house, it's worth noting that this year, Tom Scudamore is 14/31 (45.2% SR) for 13pts (+41.9% ROI) on chase favourites, with handicappers winning 12 of 27 (44.4%) for 13pts (+48%)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Arden Denis @ 9/2 BOG which was widely available at 5.40pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.50 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

SotD Update, 6th to 11th November 2017

Last week was certainly not the way I wanted to return from my holiday! We've been operating this particular service for six years now and it has produced decent profits at a steady rate with the inevitable peaks and troughs associated with gambling. The method of selection hasn't changed, neither has my approach, we're just on a downswing.

As for recent losses, I feel and share your pain, because unlike most commercial tipsters out there, I back every single one of my own selections with real money, so when you win I win and you lose I lose, but I'm still extremely confident the current cold spell will be broken soon and we'll start moving the numbers in the right direction again.

Selections & Results : 06/11/17 to 11/11/17 :

06/11 : Mab Dab @ 13/2 BOG 3rd at 7/1
07/11 : Jack of Diamonds @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 9/4
08/11 : Swift Crusador 11/4 BOG 2nd at 7/2
09/11 : Petite Jack @ 4/1 BOG 6th at 9/4
10/11 : Lady of Longstone @ 9/4 BOG 2nd at 9/4
11/11 : Virgilio @ 7/2 BOG 8th at 11/4

06/11/17 to 11/11/17 :
0 winning bets from 6 = 0.00% SR
P/L: -6.00pts

November 2017:
1 winner from 9 = 11.11% SR
P/L: -5.60pts
ROI = -62.22%

2017 so far:
73 winners from 257 = 28.40% SR
P/L: +92.90pts
ROI = +36.15%

Overall:
513 winners from 1848 = 27.76% S.R
P/L: +467.62pts
ROI: +25.30%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.

Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are now available here.

Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take your £1, 30-day trial right now?

Click here for more details.

Stat of the Day, 13th November 2017

Saturday's Result :

2.15 Aintree: Virgilio @ 7/2 BOG 8th at 11/4 Held up towards rear, closed on inside from 5th, no impression 2 out, weakened before last.

Next up is Monday's...

4.00 Kempton

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Salto Chisco @ 3/1 BOG

A Class 4, 3yo+, Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle over 2m on Good to Soft ground worth £3,899 to the winner.

Trainer Harry Whittingham has 3 winners from his last 8 runners, from which his hurdlers are 2 from 4, but that's not too surprising considering that since 1st October 2014, his hurdlers are 19/75 (25.3% SR) for 149.2pts (+199% ROI) in the final three months of the year. Of those 75 early season hurdlers...

Your first 30 days for just £1
  • males are 16/67 (23.9%) for 70.7pts (+105.5%)
  • at Class 4 : 15/54 (27.8%) for 146.1pts (+270.5%)
  • ran in last 30 days : 6/32 (18.75%) for 30.25pts (+94.5%)
  • at odds of 9/2 and shorter : 13/31 (41.9%) for 17.35pts (+56%)
  • at 1m7.5f/2m : 11/30 (36.7%) for 135pts (+450%)
  • in handicaps : 5/25 (20%) for 15.36pts (+61.4%)
  • and here at Kempton : 2/7 (28.6%) for 12.17pts (+173.8%)

...and his only hurdler today is Salto Chisco, a 9yr old gelding who has three wins from his last six outings and has also achieved the following...

  • 3 wins & 2 places from 7 within 30 days of his last run
  • 2 wins & 2 places from 6 going right handed
  • 2 wins & 2 places from 5 at 2 miles
  • 1 from 1 here at Kempton (over course and distance)

That course and distance win also makes him of further interest, as since 2009 in Class 3 to 5 handicap hurdles, former C&D winners who were priced at 7/4 to 12/1 after a win LTO = 195/952 (20.5% SR) for 169.2pts (+17.8% ROI), including...

  • those who last ran 6 to 60 days earlier : 173/843 (20.5%) for 150.1pts (+17.8%)
  • 9 yr olds are 21/91 (23.1%) for 29.5pts (+32.4%)
  • and here at Kempton: 2/10 (20%) for 6.91pts (+69.1%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Salto Chisco @ 3/1 BOG which was widely available at 7.40pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.00 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 13th November 2017

Saturday's Result :

2.15 Aintree: Virgilio @ 7/2 BOG 8th at 11/4 Held up towards rear, closed on inside from 5th, no impression 2 out, weakened before last.

Next up is Monday's...

4.00 Kempton

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Salto Chisco @ 3/1 BOG

A Class 4, 3yo+, Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle over 2m on Good to Soft ground worth £3,899 to the winner.

Trainer Harry Whittingham has 3 winners from his last 8 runners, from which his hurdlers are 2 from 4, but that's not too surprising considering that since 1st October 2014, his hurdlers are 19/75 (25.3% SR) for 149.2pts (+199% ROI) in the final three months of the year. Of those 75 early season hurdlers...

  • males are 16/67 (23.9%) for 70.7pts (+105.5%)
  • at Class 4 : 15/54 (27.8%) for 146.1pts (+270.5%)
  • ran in last 30 days : 6/32 (18.75%) for 30.25pts (+94.5%)
  • at odds of 9/2 and shorter : 13/31 (41.9%) for 17.35pts (+56%)
  • at 1m7.5f/2m : 11/30 (36.7%) for 135pts (+450%)
  • in handicaps : 5/25 (20%) for 15.36pts (+61.4%)
  • and here at Kempton : 2/7 (28.6%) for 12.17pts (+173.8%)

...and his only hurdler today is Salto Chisco, a 9yr old gelding who has three wins from his last six outings and has also achieved the following...

  • 3 wins & 2 places from 7 within 30 days of his last run
  • 2 wins & 2 places from 6 going right handed
  • 2 wins & 2 places from 5 at 2 miles
  • 1 from 1 here at Kempton (over course and distance)

That course and distance win also makes him of further interest, as since 2009 in Class 3 to 5 handicap hurdles, former C&D winners who were priced at 7/4 to 12/1 after a win LTO = 195/952 (20.5% SR) for 169.2pts (+17.8% ROI), including...

  • those who last ran 6 to 60 days earlier : 173/843 (20.5%) for 150.1pts (+17.8%)
  • 9 yr olds are 21/91 (23.1%) for 29.5pts (+32.4%)
  • and here at Kempton: 2/10 (20%) for 6.91pts (+69.1%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Salto Chisco @ 3/1 BOG which was widely available at 7.40pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.00 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 11th November 2017

Friday's Result :

1.30 Fontwell : Lady of Longstone @ 9/4 BOG 2nd at 9/4 Behind, headway 4 out, chased leaders next, every chance 2 out, kept on same pace closing stages, beaten by 1.25 lengths.

Next up is Saturday's...

2.15 Aintree

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Virgilio @ 7/2 BOG

A Class 2, 4yo+, Handicap Chase over 2m4f on Good to Soft ground worth £46,425 to the winner.

..and an 8 yr old gelding trained by Dan Skelton, whose horses are in fine fettle right now with 9 winners and 11 placers from his 27 runners so far this month.

This 33.3% win strike rate has yielded 22.95pts profit at an ROI of 85% and with an overall place strike rate of some 74.1%, those numbers could have been even better with a bit more luck.

Of those 27 runners so far this month, 20 have been ridden by Harry Skelton, which has brought about 8 winners (40% SR) and 27.43pts profit at a return of 137.15% and today the Skeltons team up with a horse who has already won 6 of his 12 starts with another couple of placed efforts for good measure and he seems ideal for this contest today, because he is...

  • 5 wins + 2 places from 11 under Harry Skelton (3+2/7 in chases)
  • 6+1/10 going left handed (3+1/5 in chases)
  • 6/7 at odds of 4/1 and shorter (3/4 in chases)
  • 4+1/7 at 2m3f/2m4f (1+1/3 in chases)
  • 3+2/7 in chases
  • 6/6 as fav/jt fav (3/3 in chases)
  • 4/5 in handicaps (1/1 in chases)
  • 3/5 here at Aintree (1/2 in chases)
  • 4/4 at Class 2 (2/2 in chases)
  • 3/3 after a break of 4 months or longer (1/1 in chases)
  • 1+1/2 on Good to Soft ground (both chases)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Virgilio @ 7/2 BOG which was widely available at 8.05pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.15 Aintree

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!