Posts

Stat of the Day, 24th July 2019

Tuesday's pick was...

6.50 Chelmsford : Cantiniere @ 5/1 BOG 5th at 6/1 (Towards rear, headway over 1f out, kept on towards finish, beaten 1 1/4 lengths)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

4.20 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Fashion Free @ 2/1 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap for 2yo over 7f on Standard ground worth £2782 to the winner...

Why?...

A Premier League trainer and Championship-seeking jockey partner up for today's Stat of the Day.

Fashion Free, the filly in question, is having her second start in a handicap. She ran extremely well from stall 13 (car park) at Pontefract on 'cap bow, finishing third, and might have won with a kinder draw. But that's form rather than stats.

The key stat is Oisin Murphy riding for Archie Watson.

In the last year, they've combined 88 times for 21 wins (24%, +16.44) and 44 places (50%). That has an IV of 2.29 (more than twice as likely to win together than the average). At Lingfield in the past five years, this A Team is 11 from 32 (34.38%, +9.31, A/E 1.25, IV 2.88).

Archie has a 19% hit rate second time in a handicap (A/E 1.2, IV 1.83) and his recent form has been very good: better than first appearance.

Specifically, a rate of 7 from 43 in the past fortnight is reasonable rather than exciting. But that masks a huge 51% place rate, suggesting Team Watson is in great form but suffering that 'orrible variance thing.

Down a grade and up a furlong both look positives...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Fashion Free @ 2/1 BOG as was available at 6pm on Tuesday with skybet. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.20 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 23rd July 2019

Monday's pick was...

2.30 Ayr : Hard Solution @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 7/2 (Held up, effort when no room from over 2f out to inside final furlong, kept on last 100yds, nearest finish)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

6.50 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Cantiniere @ 5/1 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m on Standard ground worth £5693 to the winner...

Why?...

Cantiniere is a Godolphin runner having her second start in a UK handicap. She's trained by Saeed bin Suroor, who is in excellent form at the moment. Indeed his form reads:

Last 14 days: 5 wins, 3 more places from 18 runners (28% win, +0.76, A/E 1.21, IV 2.49 - 2.5 times as likely to have a winner than the norm)
Last 30 days: 14 wins, 6 more places from 44 runners (32% win, +18.18, A/E 1.3, IV 2.94)

bin Suroor also has a 30.57% five year win record at the track.

With second time handicap starters (this filly strictly isn't, but she had an abortive effort in Meydan), he is 14/56 (25%)

Hayley Turner gets the ride and the pairing have an excellent record together. In the last year, they've won 7 from 21 (33%, 6 more placed) when teaming up (+7.87, A/E 1.06, IV 3.2).

Cantiniere's sire, War Front, is a bit of an all weather, erm, stud. He's got a 20% win record in the last two years on the artificial surfaces (40 from 200).

Positive stats for trainer, jockey and sire...

...give us... a 1pt win bet on Cantiniere @ 5/1 BOG as was available at 6.00pm on Monday with Bet365 were offering slightly more. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.50 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 22nd July 2019

Saturday's pick was...

2.45 Market Rasen : Global Tour @ 3/1 BOG non-runner

Monday's pick runs in the...

2.30 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Who?

Hard Solution @ 3/1 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap for 3yo over 5f on Good ground worth £2782 to the winner...

Why?...

This 3 yr old gelding has finished 2113 in his last four starts, with both wins coming at Class 6 and the two defeats at Class 5 and he now drops back in class again.

His trainer David O'Meara has enjoyed consistent success at this venue, notching up 43 winners from 239 (18% SR) handicappers here over the past 8 seasons, generating level stakes profits of 45.2pts at an ROI of 18.9% and these 239 runners include of relevance today...

  • 37/131 (28.2%) for 55.6pts (+42.5%) at odds of 7/4 to 15/2
  • 36/187 (19.25%) for 61.8pts (+33%) after a break of 4-30 days
  • 17/60 (28.3%) for 67.7pts (+112.8%) dropping down a class
  • 16/59 (27.1%) for 17.9pts (+30.3%) finished 2nd or 3rd LTO
  • 10/51 (19.6%) for 27.3pts (+53.5%) over the last two seasons
  • 8/29 (27.6%) for 22.3pts (+76.9%) ridden by David Nolan
  • 7/30 (23.3%) for 36.9pts (+123%) over this 5f C&D
  • and 5/27 (18.5%) for 14.75pts (+54.6%) at Class 6

...whilst simply backing class droppers reappearing 4-45 days after their last run and sent off at 7/4 to 15/2 over the last five seasons would give you 11 winners from 26 (42.3% SR) for 35.6pts (+136.8% ROI), including 3 from 6 under David Nolan...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Hard Solution @ 3/1 BOG as was widely available at 5.25pm on Sunday, although Bet365 were offering slightly more. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.30 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 22nd July 2019

Saturday's pick was...

2.45 Market Rasen : Global Tour @ 3/1 BOG non-runner

Monday's pick runs in the...

2.30 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Hard Solution @ 3/1 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap for 3yo over 5f on Good ground worth £2782 to the winner...

Why?...

This 3 yr old gelding has finished 2113 in his last four starts, with both wins coming at Class 6 and the two defeats at Class 5 and he now drops back in class again.

His trainer David O'Meara has enjoyed consistent success at this venue, notching up 43 winners from 239 (18% SR) handicappers here over the past 8 seasons, generating level stakes profits of 45.2pts at an ROI of 18.9% and these 239 runners include of relevance today...

  • 37/131 (28.2%) for 55.6pts (+42.5%) at odds of 7/4 to 15/2
  • 36/187 (19.25%) for 61.8pts (+33%) after a break of 4-30 days
  • 17/60 (28.3%) for 67.7pts (+112.8%) dropping down a class
  • 16/59 (27.1%) for 17.9pts (+30.3%) finished 2nd or 3rd LTO
  • 10/51 (19.6%) for 27.3pts (+53.5%) over the last two seasons
  • 8/29 (27.6%) for 22.3pts (+76.9%) ridden by David Nolan
  • 7/30 (23.3%) for 36.9pts (+123%) over this 5f C&D
  • and 5/27 (18.5%) for 14.75pts (+54.6%) at Class 6

...whilst simply backing class droppers reappearing 4-45 days after their last run and sent off at 7/4 to 15/2 over the last five seasons would give you 11 winners from 26 (42.3% SR) for 35.6pts (+136.8% ROI), including 3 from 6 under David Nolan...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Hard Solution @ 3/1 BOG as was widely available at 5.25pm on Sunday, although Bet365 were offering slightly more. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.30 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

SotD Update, 15th to 20th July 2019

July continues to be challenging and despite some decent picks running well, we still only had one winner and 0.5pts profit to show for our efforts on the week.

This means we're still a winner shy of break even for the month right now, so to make July profitable we're going to need some improvement in results. Both Matt & I will be doing our level best to achieve this.

For his part, Matt will be providing the selections for a week from Tuesday whilst I'm away in Kiev. I'll be putting Monday's pick up tonight (Sunday) of course and then I'll be taking back over with the pick for Tuesday 30th July.

Selections & Results : 15/07/19 to 20/07/19

15/07 : Hats Off To Larry @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 7/4
16/07 : Thorntoun Care @ 9/2 BOG WON at 9/2
17/07 : Dutch Canyon @ 9/2 BOG PU at 9/2
18/07 : Be Bold @ 9/2 BOG 2nd at 4/1
19/07 : Queen of Kalahari @ 5/1 BOG 4th at 9/2
20/07 : Global Tour @ 3/1 BOG non-runner

15/07/19 to 20/07/19 :
1 winning bet from 5 = 20.00% SR
P/L: +0.50pts

July 2019 :
3 winners from 17 = 17.64% SR
P/L: -2.50pts
ROI = -25.00%

2019 to date :
43 winners from 157 = 27.39% SR
P/L: +56.10pts
ROI = +35.73%

Overall:
633 winners from 2333 = 27.13% S.R
P/L: +552.50pts
ROI: +23.68%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is
here.
Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are
now available here.
Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here
And here is the full story from 2017.

2018 was the latest full year for SotD and the yearly review is right here

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take the plunge and get involved right now?

Click here for more details.

Stat of the Day, 20th July 2019

Friday's pick was...

2.50 Nottingham : Queen of Kalahari @ 5/1 BOG 4th at 9/2 (Close up, ridden 2f out, stayed on towards finish

Saturday's pick runs in the...

2.45 Market Rasen :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Global Tour @ 3/1 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 4, Handicap Hurdle for 3yo+ over 2m1f on Good ground worth £4549 to the winner... 

Why?...

This 6 yr old gelding seems to have been revitalised since moving to Fergal O'Brien's yard, finishing 11131 in his five runs for his new handler, all over hurdles under today's jockey Max Kendrick over trips ranging from 2m to 2m4.5f, including 2 wins from 2 at Class 4.

His last run/win was just a week ago at Newton Abbot and his quick reappearance is no surprise as Fergal's runners sent back out 1-7 days after their last run are 7 from 20 (35% SR) for 7.75pts (+38.7% ROI) when sent off at odds shorter than 8/1 since the start of 2016.

Not admittedly the largest dataset I've brought you, but there are so many subsets at play today that this seems more than coincidental as from the 7/20 record, those horses are...

  • 6/18 (33.3%) for 3.18pts (+17.7%) from male runners
  • 6/14 (42.9%) for 9.61pts (+68.7%) over hurdles
  • 6/14 (42.9%) for 5.33pts (+38.1%) on ground quicker than good to soft
  • 6/11 (54.6%) for 13.42pts (+122%) at trips up to 2m5f
  • 5/11 (45.5%) for 12.91pts (+117.4%) in the second half of the calendar year
  • 5/10 (50%) for 13.91pts (+139.1%) at Class 4
  • 4/7 (57.1%) for 15.45pts (+220.7%) at 16-60 days since their second to last outing
  • 3/4 (75%) for 8.85pts (+206.3%) with 6 yr olds
  • and 2/2 (100%) for 1.83pts (+91.5%) with Max Kendrick in the saddle...

...enough, in my opinion, to warrant... a 1pt win bet on Global Tour @ 3/1 BOG as was widely available at 5.55pm on Friday, although SkyBet stood out with an extra third of a point, if you can get on there. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.45 Market Rasen

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 19th July 2019

Thursday's pick was...

5.15 Hamilton : Be Bold @ 9/2 BOG 2nd at 4/1 (Mid-division, headway over 2f out, driven to chase leaders when not clear run inside final 2f, ridden and stayed on inside final furlong, just held towards finish

Friday's pick runs in the...

2.50 Nottingham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Queen of Kalahari @ 5/1 BOG

...in a 14-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 6f on Good to Firm (good in places) ground worth £3234 to the winner...

Why?...

In a race where there are question marks about most of the runners, the form option is our 4 yr old filly, who has finished 2221 in her last four outings over the past 10 weeks or so. All were at Class 6, three over this 6f trip plus a spin over 7f and all in big fields (3 x 13-runners and 1 x 15), so conditions won't be alien to her.

Despite here recent good form, she's still only 2lbs higher in the weights than at the start of the run that culminated in a win over 6f at Hamilton last time out, taking her record on the Flat to 3 wins and 4 other places from 13 runs and these include of relevance today...

  • 3 wins and 3 places from 10 on a straight track
  • 2 wins and 3 places from 8 on Good/Good to Firm ground
  • 1 win and 2 places from 4 in fields of 12-15 runners
  • 1 win and 1 place from 2 at Class 6
  • 1 win and 1 place from 4 on Good to Firm
  • finished as runner-up over course and distance on only previous visit to Nottingham

She is trained by Les Eyre, whose runners are 4/17 (23.5% SR) for 20.76pts (+122.1% ROI) here over the last 5 seasons, from which the following angles are at play today...

  • 4/13 (30.8%) for 24.76pts (+190.5%) after a break of less than 40 days
  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 26.76pts (+243.3%) at the same class as LTO
  • 3/10 (30%) for 15.02pts (+150.2%) on Good to Firm ground
  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 18.36pts (+262.3%) in fields of 11-14 runners
  • 2/6 (33.3%) for 12.09pts (+201.6%) at Class 6
  • 2/5 (40%) for 7.62pts (+152.4%) at odds shorter than 6/1
  • 2/5 (40%) for 11.67pts (+233.4%) at the same distance as LTO
  • and 1/1 in July

...whilst those running on good to firm ground at the same class as their LTO run less than 40 days earlier are 3 from 6 950% SR) for 19.02pts (+317% ROI).

In addition to the above, it's also worth noting that Les Eyre's LTO winners who were subsequently sent off at 7/1 and shorter over a 6f trip less than 40 days later are 4 from 8 (50% SR) for 14.06pts (+175.7% ROI) on the Flat (all in handicaps), including 3 winners from 4 (75%) for 9.84pts (+246%) on good to firm ground...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Queen of Kalahari @ 5/1 BOG as was widely available at 5.10pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.50 Nottingham

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 18th July 2019

Wednesday's pick was...

2.50 Uttoxeter : Dutch Canyon @ 9/2 BOG PU at 9/2 (Led until before 3rd, not fluent next, weakened before 13th, pulled up before 4 out

Thursday's pick runs in the...

5.15 Hamilton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Be Bold @ 9/2 BOG

...in a 13-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m½f on Good to Firm ground worth £3493 to the winner...

Why?...

Keeping it simple again this morning with a 7 yr old gelding trained by Rebecca Bastiman, whose overall record is decent here at Hamilton with 11 winners from 75 (14.7% SR) generating profits of 52.1pts at an ROI of 69.5%. That's from blind betting and is actually far better than just decent.

I appreciate you might not want to blanket bet a certain trainer, so based on the above figures, the following angles are at play today...

  • 11/69 (15.9%) for 58.1pts (+84.2%) from males
  • 11/67 (16.4%) for 60.1pts (+89.7%) from 3-7 yr olds
  • 10/73 (13.5%) for 39.6pts (+53.6%) in handicaps
  • 10/54 (18.5%) for 59.6pts (+110.4%) during 2017-19
  • 7/48 (14.6%) for 48.75pts (+101.6%) during May-July
  • 7/30 (23.3%) for 20.3pts (+67.7%) at odds of 11/4 to 8/1
  • and 5/27 (18.5%) for 62.8pts (+232.6%) over trips of 8½ to 9f

...from which... Rebecca Bastiman's 3-7 yr old males sent off at odds of 11/4 to 8/1 in Hamilton handicaps during May-July of 2017-19 are 5 from 17 (29.4% SR) for 20.02pts (+117.7% ROI) including 3 winners from 6 (50%) for 21.17pts (+352.8%) over trips of 8½ to 9f...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Be Bold @ 9/2 BOG as was widely available at 1.00am on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.15 Hamilton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 17th July 2019

Tuesday's pick was...

5.15 Beverley : Thorntoun Care @ 9/2 BOG WON at 9/2 (Held up towards rear, headway over 1f out, ran on to lead last strides

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

2.50 Uttoxeter :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Dutch Canyon @ 6/1 BOG

...in a 13-runner, Class 5, Novices Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 3m½f on Good ground worth £2989 to the winner...

Why?...

This 9 yr old gelding comes here seeking a hat-trick after back to back Class 5 chase wins at Hexham & Cartmel, 32 and 19 days ago respectively, both over trips of 3m½f  to 3m1½f under today's jockey Sam Coltherd who again claims 3lbs.

The Hexham run was his yard debut  as he defied a 301 day absence and although now 4lbs higher than LTO, I think he's still ahead of the assessor and the drop back in trip will help.

He is trained by Stuart Coltherd, one of the trainers I look out for in an angle I blandly named "Summer Chases". The basic premise is that in UK NH handicap chases during May to August, Stuart's runners are 8 from 36 (22.2% SR) for 14.01pts (+38.9% ROI) over the last four "summers" (it might be warm now, but I use the term loosely).

36 runners isn't a huge dataset, but certain angles crop up too regularly for them to be just chance or coincidence, as the 8/36 includes...

  • 8/32 (25%) for 18.01pts (+56.3%) from males
  • 8/30 (26.7%) for 20.01pts (+66.7%) in races worth less than £6,000
  • 7/24 (29.2%) for 21.21pts (+88.4%) at 11-25 days since last run
  • 7/23 (30.4%) for 12.32pts (+53.6%) at odds of 9/4 to 5/1
  • 6/29 (20.7%) for 0.28pts (+0.95%) ridden by Sam Coltherd
  • 6/22 (27.3%) for 17.97pts (+81.7%) at Class 5
  • 5/18 (27.8%) for 5.77pts (+32.1%) from 8/9 yr olds
  • 5/11 (45.5%) for 14.28pts (+129.8%) at 3m½f  to 3m1½f
  • 4/12 (33.3%) for 8.06pts (+67.2%) in 2019
  • and 2/8 (25%) for 1.22pts (+15.3%) from LTO winners

...whilst males ridden by Sam and sent off at 5/1 or shorter in a race worth less than £6k, some 11-25 days after they last ran  = 5 from 9 (55.6% SR) for 15.48pts (+171.9% ROI) and these include 4/7 at Class 5, 4/7 at 3m½f  to 3m1½f, 3/5 from 8/9 yr olds, 2/3 from LTO winners and 2/2 in 2019...

...and those racing 3m½f  to 3m1½f at Class 5 are 4 from 6 (66.6%) for 14.48pts (+241.4%)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Dutch Canyon @ 6/1 BOG as offered by BetVictor & Hills at 5.35pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.50 Uttoxeter

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 16th July 2019

Monday's pick was...

8.30 Windsor : Hats Off To Larry @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 7/4 (Chased leading pair, 2nd on inside 3f out, led over 2f out, ridden and headed inside final furlong, stayed on same pace

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

5.15 Beverley :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Thorntoun Care @ 9/2 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m2f on Good to Firm ground worth £3105 to the winner...

Why?...

Keeping it very simple today with an 8 yr old gelding who'll hope fully find conditions suit him, as of his 5 Flat wins to date...

  • all 5 were at odds shorter than 6/1
  • 4 came when wearing cheekpieces
  • 4 in June/July
  • 3 on Good to Firm
  • 3 at Class 6
  • and 3 after a short break of 8-15 days

His trainer, Karen Tutty has a decent record here of late with 6 winners from 36 (16.6% SR) in handicaps over the last three seasons generating 42.4pts at an ROI of some 117.7%, from which...

  • after less than 3 weeks rest : 6/26 (23.1%) for 52.4pts (+201.5%)
  • males : 5/29 (17.2%) for 44.2pts (+152.5%)
  • on Good to firm : 4/19 (21.1%) for 32.4pts (+170.5%)
  • in July : 3/10 (30%) for 11.13pts (+111.3%)
  • and at 7/1 or shorter : 3/9 (33.3%) for 12.13pts (+134.7%)

...with males turned back out less than 3 weeks after their last run winning 5 of 23 (21.7% SR) for 50.2pts (+218.4% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Thorntoun Care @ 9/2 BOG as offered by more than half a dozen firms at 6.30pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.15 Beverley

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 15th July 2019

Saturday's pick was...

7.50 Salisbury : El Borracho @ 4/1 BOG 5th at 7/1 (Dwelt, behind, headway over 3f out, chased leaders over 2f out, soon weakened

Monday's pick runs in the...

8.30 Windsor :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Hats Off To Larry@ 11/4 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m2f on Good to Firm ground worth £5208 to the winner...

Why?...

This 5 yr old gelding was a decent fifth of ten in a far better contest than this last time out. He was only two lengths off the pace that day at Sandown 10 days ago and now drops two classes and run off a mark eased by two pounds today.

He currently has a good record in Flat handicaps, having fur wins and three places from twelve efforts and with today's contest in mind, those runs include...

  • 4 wins, 2 places from 9 over trips of 8.5 to 10.5 furlongs
  • 4 wins from 6 on tracks deemed as "flat"
  • 3 wins, 2 places from 8 after a break of 8 to 28 days
  • 3 wins, 2 places from 6 at Class 4
  • 3 wins, 2 places from 5 in fields of 8 runners or less
  • 3 wins, 1 place from 7 at odds of 5/1 and shorter
  • 2 wins, 1 place from 5 at this 1m2f trip
  • 2 wins from 4 on Good to Firm ground
  • 2 wins from 2 here at Windsor
  • 2 wins from 2 in Class 4 races worth less than £6,000
  • and 2 wins from 2 over course and distance

No disrespect intended to Nicola Currie, who not only rode the horse very well last time out, but is also certainly a fine, talented jockey overall, but the booking of Oisin Murphy today is a positive move to me, as he has already ridden 11 winners from 40 (27.5% SR) in handicaps on this track this season with a 1pt level stake bet on each of the 40 generating 19.04pts profit at an ROI of 47.6% and those 40 rides include of relevance today...

  • 11/33 (33.3%) for 26.04pts (+78.9%) at classes 3 to 5
  • 9/22 (40.9%) for 31.33pts (+142.4%) in fields of 7-11 runners
  • 8/27 (29.6%) for 16.07pts (+59.5%) on male runners
  • 7/18 (38.9%) for 26.29pts (+146.1%) over trips of 10 to 11.5 furlongs
  • 5/15 (33.3%) for 3.28pts (+21.9%) at Class 4
  • and 4/9 (44.4%) for 8.08pts (+89.8%) over this 1m2f course and distance...

...whilst on male runners in fields of 7-11 at Classes 3 to 5 over trips of 10 to 11,5 furlongs, Oisin is 5 from 9 (55.6% SR) for 21.9pts (+243.4% ROI), including 4 from 7 over this 1m2f C&D, 3 from 6 at Class 4 and 3 from 5 (60%) for 7.19pts (+143.8%) over course and distance at Class 4.

Oisin doesn't get to ride many of trainer Mick Channon's horses and I'd guess that's down to other contractual obligations on both sides,because it's certainly not down to a lack of success, as since 2015, the duo are 7 from 15 (46.7% SR) for 44.8pts (+298.9% ROI) on horses sent off shorter than 12/1 and this includes 5 winners from 9 (55.6%) for 35.4pts (+392.8%) in handicaps...

...which all points towards... a 1pt win bet on Hats Off To Larry@ 11/4 BOG as offered by Bet365 & Skybet at 6.40pm on Sunday, although better on a non-BOG basis was available. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 8.30 Windsor

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 15th July 2019

Saturday's pick was...

7.50 Salisbury : El Borracho @ 4/1 BOG 5th at 7/1 (Dwelt, behind, headway over 3f out, chased leaders over 2f out, soon weakened

Monday's pick runs in the...

8.30 Windsor :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Hats Off To Larry@ 11/4 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m2f on Good to Firm ground worth £5208 to the winner...

Why?...

This 5 yr old gelding was a decent fifth of ten in a far better contest than this last time out. He was only two lengths off the pace that day at Sandown 10 days ago and now drops two classes and run off a mark eased by two pounds today.

He currently has a good record in Flat handicaps, having fur wins and three places from twelve efforts and with today's contest in mind, those runs include...

  • 4 wins, 2 places from 9 over trips of 8.5 to 10.5 furlongs
  • 4 wins from 6 on tracks deemed as "flat"
  • 3 wins, 2 places from 8 after a break of 8 to 28 days
  • 3 wins, 2 places from 6 at Class 4
  • 3 wins, 2 places from 5 in fields of 8 runners or less
  • 3 wins, 1 place from 7 at odds of 5/1 and shorter
  • 2 wins, 1 place from 5 at this 1m2f trip
  • 2 wins from 4 on Good to Firm ground
  • 2 wins from 2 here at Windsor
  • 2 wins from 2 in Class 4 races worth less than £6,000
  • and 2 wins from 2 over course and distance

No disrespect intended to Nicola Currie, who not only rode the horse very well last time out, but is also certainly a fine, talented jockey overall, but the booking of Oisin Murphy today is a positive move to me, as he has already ridden 11 winners from 40 (27.5% SR) in handicaps on this track this season with a 1pt level stake bet on each of the 40 generating 19.04pts profit at an ROI of 47.6% and those 40 rides include of relevance today...

  • 11/33 (33.3%) for 26.04pts (+78.9%) at classes 3 to 5
  • 9/22 (40.9%) for 31.33pts (+142.4%) in fields of 7-11 runners
  • 8/27 (29.6%) for 16.07pts (+59.5%) on male runners
  • 7/18 (38.9%) for 26.29pts (+146.1%) over trips of 10 to 11.5 furlongs
  • 5/15 (33.3%) for 3.28pts (+21.9%) at Class 4
  • and 4/9 (44.4%) for 8.08pts (+89.8%) over this 1m2f course and distance...

...whilst on male runners in fields of 7-11 at Classes 3 to 5 over trips of 10 to 11,5 furlongs, Oisin is 5 from 9 (55.6% SR) for 21.9pts (+243.4% ROI), including 4 from 7 over this 1m2f C&D, 3 from 6 at Class 4 and 3 from 5 (60%) for 7.19pts (+143.8%) over course and distance at Class 4.

Oisin doesn't get to ride many of trainer Mick Channon's horses and I'd guess that's down to other contractual obligations on both sides,because it's certainly not down to a lack of success, as since 2015, the duo are 7 from 15 (46.7% SR) for 44.8pts (+298.9% ROI) on horses sent off shorter than 12/1 and this includes 5 winners from 9 (55.6%) for 35.4pts (+392.8%) in handicaps...

...which all points towards... a 1pt win bet on Hats Off To Larry@ 11/4 BOG as offered by Bet365 & Skybet at 6.40pm on Sunday, although better on a non-BOG basis was available. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 8.30 Windsor

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

SotD Update, 8th to 13th July 2019

Not the best of weeks by a long chalk (but not the worst either), as just one placed horse from six is a disappointing return.

Week 2 of July had some resemblance of week 1 in that the end result was one from six and a small loss of 1.5pts, meaning that despite things not going our way yet this month, we're certainly not out of it.

In fact, we're currently only one winner shy of being in profit for the month right now and with 15 more opportunities (of which Matt will provide six, but more on that next Sunday) to come, four or five winners is certainly a possibility, time will tell...

Selections & Results : 08/07/19 to 13/07/19

08/07 : Fairy Fast @ 5/1 BOG 13th at 7/2
09/07 : Poet's Pride @ 5/1 BOG 4th at 5/2
10/07 : Soloist @ 7/2 BOG 7th at 9/2
11/07 : Guildsman @ 7/2 BOG 4th at 7/2
12/07 : Pink Eyed Pedro @ 7/2 BOG WON at 7/4
13/07 : El Borracho @ 4/1 BOG 5th at 7/1

08/07/19 to 13/07/19 :
1 winning bet from 6 = 16.66% SR
P/L: -1.50pts

July 2019 :
2 winners from 12 = 16.66% SR
P/L: -3.00pts
ROI = -25.00%

2019 to date :
42 winners from 152 = 27.63% SR
P/L: +55.60pts
ROI = +36.58%

Overall:
632 winners from 2328 = 27.15% S.R
P/L: +552.00pts
ROI: +23.71%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is
here.
Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are
now available here.
Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here
And here is the full story from 2017.

2018 was the latest full year for SotD and the yearly review is right here

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take the plunge and get involved right now?

Click here for more details.

Stat of the Day, 13th July 2019

Friday's pick was...

6.10 Ffos Las : Pink Eyed Pedro @ 7/2 BOG WON at 7/4 (Tracked clear leader, close up after 5 out, led going well approaching 2 out, shaken up and good jump last, ridden clear flat, stayed on well

Saturday's pick runs in the...

7.50 Salisbury :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

El Borracho @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 6-runner, Class 5, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m4f on Firm/Good to Firm ground worth £3806 to the winner...

Why?...

This 4 yr old gelding won last time out under today's jockey Levi Williams, who'll be hoping to put his 7lb claim to good effect again today. That recent win was 13 days ago at Windsor when staying on best over 1m3.5f and although he has an extra 100 or so yards to go today whilst carrying an extra 2lbs, he does take a drop in class to run here.

He has won 3 times from 11 in Flat handicaps so far, making the frame on two other occasions and of these 11 runs, he has...

  • 3 wins and a place from 5 on a flat track
  • 2 wins and a place from 6 at class 5
  • 2 wins from 4 on good to firm ground
  • a win and a place from 2 here at Salisbury
  • 1 from 2 under Levi Williams
  • and 1 from 1 in July

His trainer, Simon Dow has a good record at getting horses to win consecutive races, as his LTO winners are 21/93 (22.6% SR) for 54.8pts (+59% ROI) in handicaps since 2014 and these include...

  • 19/79 (24%) for 54.8pts (+69.3%) from male runners
  • 17/61 (27.9%) for 61.6pts (+101%) over trips of 7 to 13.5 furlongs
  • 15/45 (33.3%) for 24.8pts (+55%) at odds of 11/2 and shorter
  • 7/30 (23.3%) for 21.2pts (+70.5%) at Class 5

...from which...males racing over 7 to 13.5 furlongs at odds shorter than 6/1 are 11/23 (47.8% SR) for 25.5pts (+110.9% ROI), including 3 from 5 (60%) for 8.88pts (+177.6%) at Class 5...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on El Borracho @ 4/1 BOG as offered by more than half a dozen firms at 6.40pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 7.50 Salisbury

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 12th July 2019

Thursday's pick was...

2.25 Newmarket : Guildsman @ 7/2 BOG 4th at 7/2 (Mid-division, ridden over 1f out, kept on and no impression

Friday's pick runs in the...

6.10 Ffos Las :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Pink Eyed Pedro @ 7/2

...in a 6-runner, Class 4, Novices Handicap Chase  for 4yo+ over 2m5f on Good To Firm worth £6758 to the winner... 

Why?...

This 8 yr old gelding has 2 wins and a place from his last four outings and was a comfortable 10-lengths winner last time out when scoring over hurdles on Monday.

He now reverts to chasing, but I've no fears about that, as he's already won over fences this year and he actually had 10 wins and 6 places from 20 runs in point to point contests.

Jockey Connor Brace once again takes the ride and claims his usual 5lbs allowance and he comes here in good nick, having won 3 of his 7 outings over the past week and finishing as a runner-up in two of them, whilst trainer David Brace has also fared well, with three winners from four over the past month.

With just four runners over the past month, it's clear that David hasn't got the largest string of horses at his disposal. In fact, since the start of 2018, he has been represented by just eight different runners (all male), but between them they have won 5 of 28 (17.9% SR) races for level stakes profits of 14.34pts (+51.2% ROI), including of relevance today...

  • 5/16 (31.25%) for 26.34pts (+164.6%) at odds of 12/1 and shorter
  • 4/21 (19.1%) for 17.39pts (+82.8%) under Connor Brace
  • 4/10 (40%) for 28.39pts (+283.9%) in June/July
  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 6.78pts (+96.9%) from 8 yr olds
  • 3/6 (50%) for 7.78pts (+129.7%) at odds shorter than 5/1
  • 2/10 (20%) for 7.24pts (+72.4%) at Class 4
  • 2/8 (25%) for 9.24pts (+115.5%) after less than 3 weeks rest
  • 2/2 (100%) for 17.91pts (+895.5%) in July
  • and 1/3 (33.3%) for 9.94pts (+331.4%) here at Ffos Las...

...and when Connor has ridden one sent off at 12/1 or shorter in June/July : 4 from 6 (66.6%) for 32.39pts (+539.8%) including 2 from 3 on 8 yr olds...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Pink Eyed Pedro @ 7/2 as offered by Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.50pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.10 Ffos Las

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!