Posts

Stat of the Day, 23rd September 2020

Tuesday's pick was...

2.05 Beverley : Harbour Vision @ 9/2 BOG 5th at 6/1 (Keen, chased leaders, pushed along 2f out, keeping on well 1f out, no more)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

6.30 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Pioneering @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 14-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m on Polyrack worth £2,782 to the winner... 

Why?...

Well, when you're looking for a couple of winners to sign off a near 9-year stint, a 7/2 fav ridden by a 7lb claimer in a 14-runner contest might not be an obvious pick, but let me attempt to explain. The price still offers some value as I thought he'd be 3/1 or shorter, whilst the racecard tells us...

...that we've an in-form horse who tops our speed ratings and is to be ridden by an in-form jockey whose record improves when riding for today's trainer, who himself is adept at getting LTO winners to win again.

Thanks for reading, I'm back again tomorrow.

Only joking, let's add a little to those bare stats above, shall we?

The horse is a 6 yr old gelding with two wins and two runner-up finishes in his last six outings, including a win LTO off today's mark under today's jockey in the same size of field he faces today that took his record to 3 from 10 (30% SR) in Class 6 handicaps.

And onto the TJ Combo.

The 6 from 27 shown above on the racecard over the last year is part of the following record (taken from the Geegeez Query Tool) since February 2019...

...that also includes a whole stack of angles that are relevant today, such as...

  • 8 from 38 (21.1%) in handicaps & 8/25 (32%) with 4-6 yr olds
  • 7/32 (21.9%) with Rhys claiming 7lbs & 7/24 (29.2%) at 11-30dslr
  • 7/19 (36.8%) after a top 4 finish LTO & 6/21 (28.6%) in 3yo+ races
  • 6/10 (60%) at 6/1 and shorter & 5/21 (23.8%) in 2020
  • 5/21 (23.8%) in fields of 11-14 runners & 4/17 (23.5%) on the A/W
  • 4/11 (36.4%) over 7.5f-1m & 4/11 (36.4%) made the frame LTO
  • 4/7 (57.1%) in September & 2/4 (50%) won LTO

And now we'll close with a look at the LTO Winner Snippet where an overall 2 year record of...

is very good, but longer term and more specifically to today's race, I've found that in A/W handicaps at odds of 2/1 to 9/1 since 2014, Gary Moore's LTO winners are 20 from 73 (27.4% SR) for 19.3pts (+26.5% ROI) profit, including the following baker's dozen of relevant angles at play today...

  • 18/66 (27.3%) on Polytrack & 17/57 (29.8%) in sub-£4k races
  • 12/38 (31.6%) at 6-25 dslr & 9/29 (31%) here at Kempton
  • 7/26 (26.9%) at Class 6 & 7/21 (33.3%) in 3yo+ contests
  • 7/16 (43.75%) over a mile & 6/14 (42.9%) during August/September
  • 5/13 (38.5%) with 6 yr olds & 5/10 (50%) with a jockey claiming 7lbs
  • 4/12 (33.3%) on Std to Slow & 4/11 (36.4%) in 2019/20 & 4/8 (50%) in September...

...all pointing us towards... a 1pt win bet on Pioneering @ 7/2 BOG (or bigger in places!) as was available at 8.25am Wednesday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 6.30 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

Here is today's racecard

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Stat of the Day, 22nd September 2020

Monday's pick was...

1.45 Warwick : Kabrit @ 10/3 BOG 5th at 11/4 (Prominent, disputed lead after 3rd, pushed along before 3 out, lost position well before next, weakened after last)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

2.05 Beverley :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Harbour Vision @ 9/2 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 7½f on Good To Firm ground worth £4,690 to the winner... 

Why?...

Much of my "work" has already been done for me on the racecard, but I'll add a little meat to the bones of the following too...

Mindful of not trying to teach you how to suck eggs (there are videos out there for that!), I'll quickly whizz through the above that tells us we've a consistent/in-form runner from an in-form yard who do well when today's jockey is on board and have also been very adept at getting winners to "double up".

So, what can I add?

Well, the recent 121 form for this 5 yr old gelding has all come in the last six weeks since the first-time adoption of cheekpieces and they are retained today (cp4 on the card). One of those wins was on good to firm ground, so the surface shouldn't be an issue. He has no run at today's trip, but is 5 from 21 at 7f and has won over a mile in the past, he's 5 from 13 in fields of 8-10 runners and has one win and one place with Paul Mulrennan on his back.

So that's the horse's suitability assessed, next to the trainer form. The card clearly tells us that David Brown's horses are 3 from 9 in the last fortnight and all I'm going to add to that is to say that in handicaps they are 3 from 7.

The trainer jockey 1-year record is good at 8 from 30 and with this race in mind, it's handy (IMO) to know that those 30 runs include...

  • 8 from 24 from males
  • 7 from 19 at odds of evens to 15/2
  • 7 from 19 in fields of 10 runners or fewer
  • 5 from 19 in handicaps
  • 5 from 18 after less than 3 weeks rest
  • 5 from 14 made the frame LTO
  • 4 from 6 from 5 yr olds
  • and 2 from 6 from LTO winners...

...and we know (via the racecard) the yard has done well over the last couple of years with LTO winners with 7 of 21 going on to win again. This isn't just a recent thing, as closer inspection of trainer David Brown's runners show that over the last five (inc this one) Flat seasons, his Class 3-6 handicappers who won last time out are 9 from 28 (32.1% SR) for profits of 33.9pts (+121% ROI) at Industry SP backed blindly, including 5 winners from the last 9.

Imposing an Evens to 7/1 odds range on those runners shows five winners from the last six...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Harbour Vision @ 9/2 BOG as was available at 8.20am Wednesday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 2.05 Beverley

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

Here is today's racecard

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Stat of the Day, 21st September 2020

Saturday's pick was...

5.20 Newton Abbot : Midnight Magic @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 7/2 (Chased leaders, driven along in 3rd after 4 out, plugged on)

Monday's pick runs in the...

1.45 Warwick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Kabrit @ 10/3 BOG

Your first 30 days for just £1

...in a 12-runner, Class 5, Novices Handicap Hurdle for 3yo+ over 2m on Good ground worth £2,794 to the winner...  

Why?...

We start with the racecard...

...which tells us that we've a 5 yr old rated a narrow second on the neural ratings we licence from Dr Peter May and who is trained by one of a number of handlers that I keep an eye out for in Class 4/5 hurdles.

That trainer is Alistair Ralph and I'll now try to show you why I'm interested in his Class 4/5 hurdlers. If we go back to the start of 2017, Alistair's record shows...

... a strike marginally better than 1 in 8, almost 1 in 3 making the frame and just about profitable. These aren't bad figures to be fair, a trainer making profit (albeit very small) from blind backing at Industry SP is always a good starting point, but I don't want to have backed all 365 runners over the last 45 months, just to make 3pts profit, so what do I want?

Well, as my angle above says, I want to back his class 4/5 hurdlers, because over the same time frame, they are...

...which moves the 1 in 8 strike rate closer to 1 in 6, generates a good (30%+) ROI at ISP and if you can get an A/E of over 1.25 allied to an IV of over 1.50 from a set of data with more than 150 qualifiers, then you're on the way to profitability. Obviously they don't all win, but you're much better off with these 175 runners than playing with all 365.

With today's race in mind, it's also worth noting that these 175 are...

  • 22/114 (19.3%) for 59.8pts (+52.5%) after 1-6 weeks rest
  • 20/66 (30.3%) for 17.7pts (+26.8%) at odds of 8/1 and shorter
  • 16/87 (18.4%) for 32.1pts (+36.9%) on good ground
  • 16/84 (19.1%) for 47.7pts (+56.8%) in races worth less than £4,000
  • 15/95 (15.8%) for 31.0pts (+32.6%) in handicaps
  • 12/73 (16.4%) for 24.9pts (+34.1%) at trips shorter than 2m1f
  • 7/45 (15.6%) for 37.1pts (+82.4%) at Class 5
  • 7/25 (28%) for 31.1pts (+124.4%) off marks (OR) of 100-105
  • 4/16 (25%) for 13.0pts (+81.25%) during September/October

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Kabrit @ 10/3 BOG as was available at 8.20am Monday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 1.45 Warwick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

Here is today's racecard

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Stat of the Day, 21st September 2020

Saturday's pick was...

5.20 Newton Abbot : Midnight Magic @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 7/2 (Chased leaders, driven along in 3rd after 4 out, plugged on)

Monday's pick runs in the...

1.45 Warwick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Kabrit @ 10/3 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 5, Novices Handicap Hurdle for 3yo+ over 2m on Good ground worth £2,794 to the winner...  

Why?...

We start with the racecard...

...which tells us that we've a 5 yr old rated a narrow second on the neural ratings we licence from Dr Peter May and who is trained by one of a number of handlers that I keep an eye out for in Class 4/5 hurdles.

That trainer is Alistair Ralph and I'll now try to show you why I'm interested in his Class 4/5 hurdlers. If we go back to the start of 2017, Alistair's record shows...

... a strike marginally better than 1 in 8, almost 1 in 3 making the frame and just about profitable. These aren't bad figures to be fair, a trainer making profit (albeit very small) from blind backing at Industry SP is always a good starting point, but I don't want to have backed all 365 runners over the last 45 months, just to make 3pts profit, so what do I want?

Well, as my angle above says, I want to back his class 4/5 hurdlers, because over the same time frame, they are...

...which moves the 1 in 8 strike rate closer to 1 in 6, generates a good (30%+) ROI at ISP and if you can get an A/E of over 1.25 allied to an IV of over 1.50 from a set of data with more than 150 qualifiers, then you're on the way to profitability. Obviously they don't all win, but you're much better off with these 175 runners than playing with all 365.

With today's race in mind, it's also worth noting that these 175 are...

  • 22/114 (19.3%) for 59.8pts (+52.5%) after 1-6 weeks rest
  • 20/66 (30.3%) for 17.7pts (+26.8%) at odds of 8/1 and shorter
  • 16/87 (18.4%) for 32.1pts (+36.9%) on good ground
  • 16/84 (19.1%) for 47.7pts (+56.8%) in races worth less than £4,000
  • 15/95 (15.8%) for 31.0pts (+32.6%) in handicaps
  • 12/73 (16.4%) for 24.9pts (+34.1%) at trips shorter than 2m1f
  • 7/45 (15.6%) for 37.1pts (+82.4%) at Class 5
  • 7/25 (28%) for 31.1pts (+124.4%) off marks (OR) of 100-105
  • 4/16 (25%) for 13.0pts (+81.25%) during September/October

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Kabrit @ 10/3 BOG as was available at 8.20am Monday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 1.45 Warwick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

Here is today's racecard

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

SotD Update, 14th to 19th September 2020

A much better week this time around, finishes of 121 in the first half of the week wiped out September's losses and actually out us in front by Wednesday evening and then we had two narrow defeats at Ayr at decent prices before rounding off the week at Newton Abbot in a tricky looking 3m2f chase.

Midnight Magic was sadly unable to round off a decent week with a win, but did run creditably enough to finish third meaning five of our six picks made the frame in a week that put us back in profit for both the month and the year as a whole.

Chris

Selections & Results : 14/09/20 to 19/09/20

14/09 : Critical Thinking @ 15/2 BOG (6.375/1 after a 15p R4) WON at 7/1
15/09 : Charlie Arthur @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 4/1 
16/09 : Dashing Roger @ 4/1 BOG WON at 4/1
17/09 : Glasses Up @ 11/2 BOG 5th at 4/1
18/09 : Nomadic Empire @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 5/1
19/09 : Midnight Magic @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 7/2

14/09/20 to 19/09/20 :
2 winning bets from 6 = 33.33% SR
P/L: +7.00pts

September 2020 :
3 winners from 16 = 18.75% SR
P/L: +0.50pts
ROI = +3.12%

2020 to date :
29 winners from 153 = 18.95% SR
P/L: +7.31pts
ROI = +4.78%

Overall:
685 winners from 2617 = 26.18% SR
P/L: +539.18pts
ROI: +20.60%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is
here.
Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are
now available here.
Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here
The full story from 2017 can be read here.
Whilst the yearly review for 2018 is right here

And here is the overview for 2019

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take the plunge and get involved right now?

Click here for more details.

Stat of the Day, 19th September 2020

Friday's pick was...

2.45 Ayr : Nomadic Empire @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 5/1 (Prominent, ridden to challenge over 1f out, ran on well final furlong but beaten by half a length)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

5.20 Newton Abbot :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Midnight Magic @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 5 Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 3m2f on Good ground worth £3,165 to the winner... 

Why?...

Having lost out narrowly on successive days up at Ayr, I was sorely tempted to try again with Thursday's pick being turned back out again, but this 8yr old gelding then caught my eye, so it's chasing in Devon instead.

Our boy's overall career record of 2 from 26 isn't the most inspiring, but he has finished 151 in the three contests where he has worn a visor in a field of 8-1 runners at a trip beyond three miles. These include 2 from 2 in September/October, 1 from 2 under today's jockey David Noonan and 1 from 1 here at Newton Abbot, acquired in a course and distance success here last time out, eleven days ago.

That C&D win was what piqued my interest, because I remembered that Newton Abbot is one of a handful of courses where I look out for LTO C&D winners as since the start of 2017, such runners are 15 from 47 (31.9% SR) for 9.3pts (+19.8% ROI) profit at this venue and these include of relevance today...

  • 14/38 (36.8%) for 15.9pts (+41.9%) from males
  • 12/33 (36.4%) for 18.8pts (+57%) in fields of 5-9 runners
  • 8/14 (57.1%) for 11.6pts (+82.9%) at 6-15 dslr
  • 7/19 (36.8%) for 2.95pts (+15.5%) over fences
  • and 3/6 (50%) for 2.93pts (+48.8%) over this 3m2f course and distance

...whilst males + 5-9 runners + 6-15 dslr = 6/8 (75% SR) for 13.56pts (+169.5% ROI) inc 4 from 5 (80%) for 9.62pts (+192.4%) over fences and 2 from 3 (66.6%) for 1.41pts (+47.1%) over this 3m2f trip : all over fences.

I could stop there, but I just couldn't put up a son of Midnight Legend with out referring to (as many long-standing readers will know!) one of my all-time favourite NH sires, who sadly is no longer with us, but his offspring continue to win races. I have a plethora of angles relating to Midnight Legend progeny, so here's one for today's contest...

...in hcp chases over 3m1.5f to 3m2f since the start of 2017, they are 17 from 70 (24.3% SR) for 20.63pts (+29.5% ROI), from which they are...

  • 14/37 (37.8%) for 39pts (+105.3%) at the age of 8 or 9
  • 13/51 (25.5%) for 15pts (+29.4%) from males
  • 10/26 (38.5%) for 25.3pts (+97.4%) with 8/9 yr old males
  • 4/13 (30.8%) for 2.5pts (+19%) here at Newton Abbot
  • 3/8 (37.5%) for 5.5pts (+68.7%) from males here at N.A.
  • 3/6 (50%) for 5.7pts (+94.8%) from 8/9 yo here at N.A.
  • and 2/4 (50%) for 5.7pts (+142.9%) from 8/9 yo males here at Newton Abbot

...pointing to... a 1pt win bet on Midnight Magic @ 3/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.35am Saturday (bigger in places!), but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 5.20 Newton Abbot

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

Here is today's racecard

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Stat of the Day, 18th September 2020

Thursday's pick was...

3.00 Ayr : Glasses Up @ 11/2 BOG 5th at 4/1 (In rear of midfield, ridden towards centre of track 2f out, headway over 1f out, kept on final furlong)

Friday's pick runs in the...

2.45 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Nomadic Empire @ 4/1 BOG

...in the 12-runner, Listed, Harry Rosebery Stakes for 2yo over 5f on Good To Soft ground worth £16,517 to the winner... 

Why?...

Well, once again, the racecard holds the key here...

...whilst the place setting on Instant Expert shows...

...and the pace/draw heat map set at 10-12 runners...

All of which is (a) self explanatory and (b) more than enough to hang a bet on, but I do just want to expand slightly on the Trainer/Jockey/Course 5 year record to show we're not leaning on old data, as of the 20 from 95 record shown on the racecard angle, the last three (inc this one so maybe 2.5?) seasons currently stand at ...

...from which...

  • 10/36 (37.8%) for 42.3pts (+117.4%) from male runners
  • 8/29 (27.6%) for 39.8pts (+137.1%) on Good/Soft ground
  • 7/20 (35%) for 39.3pts (+196.5%) at 6-15 dslr
  • 6/19 (31.6%) for 39.0pts (+205.3%) in fields of 10-14 runners
  • 6/26 (23.1%) for 35.8pts (+137.5%) from those unplaced LTO
  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 26.5pts (+240.9%) at the Scottish Gold Cup meeting
  • and 3/9 (33.3%) for 15.5pts (+172.2%) on Soft ground...

...whilst males racing in fields of 10-14 on Good/Soft at 6-15 dslr are 4 from 5 (80% SR) for 39.0pts (+780% ROI) including 3/4 (75%) for 36.5pts (+912.5%) from those who failed to make the frame LTO...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Nomadic Empire @ 4/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.10am Friday (bigger in places!), but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 2.45 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

Here is today's racecard

PS - all P/L data in this piece is taken at Industry SP and therefore can be bettered for those of you with access to BOG accounts.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Stat of the Day, 17th September 2020

Wednesday's pick was...

4.50 Yarmouth : Dashing Roger @ 4/1 BOG WON at 4/1 (Prominent, ridden to lead entering final furlong, ran on to win by 3/4 length)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

3.00 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Glasses Up @ 11/2 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 2, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m2f on Good To Soft ground worth £11,828 to the winner...

Why?...

As is most often the case, the racecard is our entry point...

...telling us we have a track specialist, ridden by an in-form jockey, Danny Tudhope, who also has a good record at this venue over a sustained period of time. The second pointer from the card is Geegeez Speed Rating of 94, which is the best in this field today, as seen below...

To assess the Horse for Courses report's relevance properly, I want to compare the horse's excellent overall record of...

...with how this 5 yr old gelding has fared over today's course and distance, and of his 6 from 17 record here at Ayr, when racing over this 10 furlong trip, he is an impressive...

from which he is...

  • 5/12 (41.7%) for 37.75pts (+314.6%) in 3yo+ contests
  • 5/8 (62.5%) for 41.75pts (+521.9%) at 8-16 dslr
  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 9.75pts (+88.6%) in handicaps
  • 4/6 (66.6%) for 14.75pts (+245.8%) at 5/2 to 15/2
  • 2/5 (40%) for 6.00pts (+120%) stepping up a class
  • 2/3 (66.6%) for 8.00pts (+266.7%) in 2020

...whilst when sent of at 5/2 to 15/2 in 3yo+ handicaps over this track and trip at 8-16 since he last ran, he is 4 from 5 (80% SR) for 15.75pts (+315% ROI), including...

  • 2 from 2 (100%) for 9.00pts (+450%) stepping up a class
  • 2 from 2 (100%) for 9.00pts (+450%) in 2020
  • and 1 from 1 (100%) for 4.00pts (+400%) stepping up a class in 2020...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Glasses Up @ 11/2 BOG as was widely available at 7.30am Thursday (bigger in places!), but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 3.00 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

Here is today's racecard

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Stat of the Day, 16th September 2020

Tuesday's pick was...

6.40 Kempton : Charlie Arthur @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 4/1 (Led over 1f, soon steadied in 3rd, pushed along over 2f out, went 2nd again entering final furlong, soon every chance, no extra and well held when edged left final 100 yards)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

4.50 Yarmouth :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Dashing Roger @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 3yo over 1m on Good To Firm ground worth £5,208 to the winner...

Why?...

As ever the Geegeez racecard and report suite provide a stack of information, starting with the card itself...

...and then our ratings...

...before heading over to check the Shortlist (win)...

... and the Shortlist (place)...

...which lead us back to the card and the Instant Expert tab set to win...

...and then its place variant...

All of which combine to form a fairly compelling case for a horse suited by conditions, hailing from an in-form yard that has done well here at Yarmouth in the past. I don't want to add too much to the above for fear of information overload, but to just add a little meat to those bones, I'd say...

...that the horse has won 2 of 11 starts, but both wins have come from just two attempts in 8-10 runner handicaps over 7f/1m of a mark in the 70's this year, within 2 to 5 weeks of his last run, all of which are in situ today.

I'd also like to briefly touch on trainer William Stone's record here at Yarmouth highlighted by the C1 and C5 icons. I won't go into the actual 1yr and 5yr data with you, because you can click the trainer icon on the card to see those instantly, but what I do want to show you is a quick direct comparison between William's overall record of...

...which isn't much to shout about if we're honest, but since the start of 2019, his 2-5 yr olds in 8-11 runner handicaps during June-October here at Yarmouth have finished 411112 with the latest qualifier only beaten by a nose here 17 days ago. Stat-wise, those six runners are...

...and I think that's where I'll leave this for today...

...leaving us with... a 1pt win bet on Dashing Roger @ 4/1 BOG as was widely available at 7.40am Wednesday (bigger in places!), but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 4.50 Yarmouth

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

Here is today's racecard

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Stat of the Day, 15th September 2020

Monday's pick was...

6.20 Wolverhampton : Critical Thinking @ 15/2 BOG (6.375/1 after a 15p R4) WON at 7/1 (Tracked leader, pushed along 2f out, ridden to lead entering final furlong, all out to win by a nose) - nice to get the right side of a tight finish for a change 😉

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

6.40 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Charlie Arthur @ 3/1 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m4f on Polytrack worth £3,429 to the winner...

Why?...

We start with the racecard, as is often the case...

...which tells us that our 4 yr old is well clear on the Geegeez ratings and was a runner-up last time out 11 days ago. he was a little unlucky to be caught very late on and beaten by a neck at this class, course and distance by a Kempton specialist dropping in class. 3lb claimer Finley Marsh retains the ride today and will seek to improve upon a decent 4 wins and 3 places from 9 starts on this horse on the A/W to date.

As you can see above, Finley has 2 wins and 3 other places from 10 for trainer Richard Hughes at this venue, whilst the bigger picture for the trainer/jockey combo is that in all A/W handicaps since the start of 2017, they are...

and they include the following ten angles of relevance today...

  • 16/54 (29.6%) for 36.8pts (+68.1%) in fields of 6-11 runners
  • 15/65 (23.1%) for 54.6pts (+84%) from male runners
  • 15/55 (27.3%) for 61.8pts (+112.4%) at Class 5/6
  • 14/53 (26.4%) for 57.9pts (+109.2%) in races worth less than £4,000
  • 13/49 (26.5%) for 35.4pts (+72.3%) when Finley has claimed 3lbs
  • 10/29 (34.5%) for 12.3pts (+42.6%) on horses placed LTO
  • 9/45 (20%) for 35.1pts (+77.9%) on Polytrack
  • 8/28 (28.6%) for 54.5pts (+194.6%) in 3yo+ handicaps
  • 6/17 (35.3%) for 58.1pts (+341.8%) in August/September
  • and 5 from 13 (38.5%) for 11.1pts (+85.4%) in 2020 so far...

...whilst when Finley has claimed 3lbs on a Richard Hughes-trained male A/W handicapper in a 6-11 runner, Class 5/6 contest worth less than £5200, they are...

..including 5 winners from 6 (83.3% SR) for 14.1pts (+235.1% ROI) with horses who made the frame last time out.

As for Richard Hughes' record with stayers, a closer inspection of his overall numbers reveals that since the start of 2018, his handicappers racing over 1m3.5f to 2m0.5f sent off at evens to 10/1 are...

...and these include...

  • 16/67 (23.9%) for 44.5pts (+66.5%) in fields of 5-13 runners
  • 16/59 (27.1%) for 52.5pts (+89.1%) from those beaten LTO
  • 11/45 (24.4%) for 40.1pts (+89.2%) over 1m3.5f-1m4f
  • 10/36 (27.8%) for 27.5pts (+76.4%) on the A/W
  • 8/34 (23.5%) for 13pts (+38.1%) in races worth less than £4k
  • 6/25 (24%) for 8pts (+32%) on Polytrack
  • 6/24 (25%) for 28pts (+116.7%) in 3yo+ handicaps
  • 4/15 (26.7%) for 19.3pts (+128.7%) during September/October
  • 4/12 (33.3%) for 11.9pts (+98.8%) at Class 5
  • 3/13 (23.1%) for 9.9pts (+76%) for Finley Marsh
  • and 3 from 12 (25%) for 7.8pts (+65.2%) in 2020 so far

...steering us towards... a 1pt win bet on Charlie Arthur @ 3/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.00am Tuesday (bigger in places!), but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 6.40 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 14th September 2020

Saturday's pick was...

4.35 Musselburgh : Amazing Alba @ 3/1 BOG 8th at 3/1 (Towards rear, headway 2f out, not clear run over 1f out, soon no impression)

Monday's pick runs in the...

6.20 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Critical Thinking @ 15/2 BOG

Your first 30 days for just £1

...in a 9-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m½f on Tapeta worth £2,782 to the winner... 

Why?...

We start with the racecard...

...which shows a 6yr old former course and distance winner dropping in class today, set to be ridden by a 5lb claimer. He's also in the top three of our own ratings and his trainer is one of my group to look out for here at Wolverhampton.

Closer analysis of those facts show that this runner has won five times at this track and is now 3lbs better off than his last win here back in January, whilst all five course wins have come under the following broad criteria that are in place today...2018-20 / handicaps / 7f-8.5f / OR of 54-74 and sent off in the 3/1 to 14/1 range. When those have combined, he is...

Jockey Ray Dawson might be a 5lb claimer, but with over 540 rides under his belt, he's no stranger to the saddle and has been in good nick of late winning 9 of 54 (16.7% SR) over the past month returning Betfair SP profits of 41.15pts at an ROI of some 76.2% and since 2018 in Wolverhampton handicaps over 6f to 1m4f at odds of 14/1 and shorter, he is...

And finally to trainer David Loughnane's record here at Wolverhampton. He's actually one of a dozen trainers I keep an eye out for at this venue and in David's case, the runners that interest me the most are those handicappers sent off at odds of 3/1 and bigger over trips of 7f to 1m4f, because since the start of 2018, they are...

...with a near 1 in 6 strike rate generating profits beyond 76p in the pound, including of note today...

  • 18/95 (19%) for 86.3pts (+90.8%) at odds of 5/1 to 16/1
  • 16/102 (15.7%) for 104.2pts (+102.2%) were unplaced LTO
  • 14/78 (18%) for 70.7pts (+90.6%) during August to December
  • 7/39 (18%) for 30.7pts (+78.6%) over this course and distance
  • 6/28 (21.4%) for 78.3pts (+279.7%) with a jockey claiming 5/7 lbs

...whilst horses unplaced LTO sent off at 5/1 to 16/1 during August to December are 11/38 (29% SR) for 81.9pts (+215.6% ROI) with 5lb claimers riding 3 winners from 8 (37.5%) for 25.1pts (+314.3%)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Critical Thinking @ 15/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.05am Monday (up to 9/1 in places!), but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 6.20 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 14th September 2020

Saturday's pick was...

4.35 Musselburgh : Amazing Alba @ 3/1 BOG 8th at 3/1 (Towards rear, headway 2f out, not clear run over 1f out, soon no impression)

Monday's pick runs in the...

6.20 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Critical Thinking @ 15/2 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m½f on Tapeta worth £2,782 to the winner... 

Why?...

We start with the racecard...

...which shows a 6yr old former course and distance winner dropping in class today, set to be ridden by a 5lb claimer. He's also in the top three of our own ratings and his trainer is one of my group to look out for here at Wolverhampton.

Closer analysis of those facts show that this runner has won five times at this track and is now 3lbs better off than his last win here back in January, whilst all five course wins have come under the following broad criteria that are in place today...2018-20 / handicaps / 7f-8.5f / OR of 54-74 and sent off in the 3/1 to 14/1 range. When those have combined, he is...

Jockey Ray Dawson might be a 5lb claimer, but with over 540 rides under his belt, he's no stranger to the saddle and has been in good nick of late winning 9 of 54 (16.7% SR) over the past month returning Betfair SP profits of 41.15pts at an ROI of some 76.2% and since 2018 in Wolverhampton handicaps over 6f to 1m4f at odds of 14/1 and shorter, he is...

And finally to trainer David Loughnane's record here at Wolverhampton. He's actually one of a dozen trainers I keep an eye out for at this venue and in David's case, the runners that interest me the most are those handicappers sent off at odds of 3/1 and bigger over trips of 7f to 1m4f, because since the start of 2018, they are...

...with a near 1 in 6 strike rate generating profits beyond 76p in the pound, including of note today...

  • 18/95 (19%) for 86.3pts (+90.8%) at odds of 5/1 to 16/1
  • 16/102 (15.7%) for 104.2pts (+102.2%) were unplaced LTO
  • 14/78 (18%) for 70.7pts (+90.6%) during August to December
  • 7/39 (18%) for 30.7pts (+78.6%) over this course and distance
  • 6/28 (21.4%) for 78.3pts (+279.7%) with a jockey claiming 5/7 lbs

...whilst horses unplaced LTO sent off at 5/1 to 16/1 during August to December are 11/38 (29% SR) for 81.9pts (+215.6% ROI) with 5lb claimers riding 3 winners from 8 (37.5%) for 25.1pts (+314.3%)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Critical Thinking @ 15/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.05am Monday (up to 9/1 in places!), but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 6.20 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

SotD Update, 7th to 12th September 2020

Well, what a week that was. And not in a good way, I'm afraid. Two placers from five is pretty poor going and only one runner actually looked like winning which just isn't good enough for our purposes.

I should clarify, I suppose. SotD is NOT a tipping service per se, but more of a way of finding a way into a race via stats and more importantly the Geegeez racecards. The aim is to find a runner that will perform better than the price available would suggest it will and by the large we've done that over the past 9 years or so.

However, we're here and it's now and the current status is that September is proving to be a struggle for me, as was July & August. I know in my heart that it won't continue forever and we'll be back amongst the winners in due course, but the bare facts are that all of 2020's profit has disappeared now and in mid-September, we're back to square one.

I'm down, but not yet beaten and I'll be picking myself up to go again tomorrow. Hopefully you'll be with me.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Chris

Selections & Results : 07/09/20 to 12/09/20

07/09 : Shady McCoy @ 9/2 BOG non-runner
08/09 : Cotton End @ 9/2 BOG 5th at 7/2 
09/09 : Gold Arch @ 5/2 BOG 2nd at 4/1
10/09 : Under Curfew @ 9/2 BOG 3rd at 9/2
11/09 : Julie Johnston @ 7/2 BOG 5th at 5/1
12/09 : Amazing Alba @ 3/1 BOG 8th at 3/1

07/09/20 to 12/09/20 :
0 winning bet from 5 = 0.00% SR
P/L: -5.00pts

September 2020 :
1 winner from 10 = 10.00% SR
P/L: -6.50pts
ROI = -65.00%

2020 to date :
27 winners from 147 = 18.37% SR
P/L: +0.31pts
ROI = +0.21%

Overall:
683 winners from 2611 = 26.16% SR
P/L: +532.18pts
ROI: +20.38%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is
here.
Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are
now available here.
Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here
The full story from 2017 can be read here.
Whilst the yearly review for 2018 is right here

And here is the overview for 2019

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take the plunge and get involved right now?

Click here for more details.

Stat of the Day, 12th September 2020

Friday's pick was...

5.00 Salisbury : Julie Johnston @ 7/2 BOG 5th at 5/1 (Went left start, soon led, ridden over 1f out, headed entering final furlong weakened inside final furlong)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

4.35 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Amazing Alba @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 5,  Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 5f on Good to Firm ground worth £3,429 to the winner...

Why?...

More on this very shortly...

This 4 yr old filly is clearly in great form and her excellent record here at Musselburgh of 2 wins and 4 further places from 8 starts are all over today's 5f trip and her form over the eight races reads 32320211, including 211 since lockdown and she's one from one under today's jockey David Nolan who was aboard last time out.

Trainer Alistair Whillans does well after sending runners back out fairly quickly after making the frame in a bid to strike whilst the iron is hot and since 2016, his Flat handicappers reappearing within 25 days of a top 3 finish are 16 from 98 (16.33% SR) for 17.01pts (+17.36% ROI), including of note/relevance today...

  • 13/54 (24.1%) for 16.55pts (+30.7%) at odds of 6/4 to 7/1
  • 11/56 (19.6%) for 29.05pts (+51.9%) at Class 5/6
  • 8/26 (30.8%) for 28.32pts (+108.9%) on Good to Firm ground
  • and 7/23 (30.4%) for 8.99pts (+39.1%) at 3-10 dslr

...whilst at Class 5/5 on Good/Good to Firm at 6/4 to 7/1, they are 7/22 (31.8% SR) for 19.08pts (+86.7%), giving us 112% of the original profit from just 22% of the runners.

Meanwhile, over the same 2016-20 timeframe, the Flat course at Musselburgh has been a happy hunting ground for LTO C&D winners in general with 23 of 76 (30.26% SR) managing to "double up", generating 50.64pts profit at an ROI of 66.6% with the following angles at play today...

  • 20/56 (35.7%) for 52.4pts (+93.6%) on Good/Good to Firm
  • 19/57 (33.3%) for 45.9pts (+80.6%) after less than 3 weeks rest
  • 19/45 (42.2%) for 40.8pts (+90.7%) at odds of 13/8 to 5/1
  • 18/42 (42.9%) for 46.2pts (+110%) in races worth less than £4,000
  • 10/29 (34.5%) for 27pts (+93%) from female runners
  • 9/34 (26.5%) for 21.9pts (+64.4%) over this 5f C&D
  • 6/13 (46.2%) for 13pts (+100%) for 4 yr olds
  • and 5/8 (62.5%) for 27pts (+337.5%) in 2020

...whilst those sent off at 13/8 to 5/1 in races worth less than £4k on Good/Good to Firm ground lees than three weeks since their LTO C&D win are 11 from 18 (61.1% SR) for 31.8pts (+176.6% ROI) and they include...

  • 6/9 (66.6%) for 17pts (+188.4%) from 4 yr olds
  • 4/7 (57.1%) for 13pts (+185.1%) from females
  • and 3 from 3 (100%) for 11.6pts (+386.7%) this year...

...and each of those C&D LTO stats applied to Amazing Alba's run/win six days ago too! All of which...

...had led me towards... a 1pt win bet on Amazing Alba @ 3/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.10am Saturday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 4.35 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 11th September 2020

Thursday's pick was...

3.25 Chepstow : Under Curfew @ 9/2 BOG 3rd at 9/2 (Raced keenly, chased leaders in centre, led over 1f out, headed close home, lost 2nd at post)

Friday's pick runs in the...

5.00 Salisbury :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Julie Johnston @ 7/2 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 3,  Flat Handicap Nursery for 2yo fillies over 6f on Good ground worth £9,704 to the winner...

Why?...

We start with the unique Geegeez interactive racecard...

...and a 2 yr old filly (obviously) who has won twice and placed twice in her five outings beyond 5 furlongs, only failing to make the frame on a three-length defeat at a higher grade at Goodwood six weeks ago. She's 1152 at 6f, has a win and a place from two good ground runs, is 131 at 7-28 days rest and tops the Geegeez Speed ratings today.

Jockey Jack Mitchell's 12-month record here at Salisbury is shown above, whilst over the last 16 months, his numbers here are...

including of relevance today...

  • 7/25 (28%) for 15.94pts (+63.8%) in races worth less than £10k
  • 5/13 (38.5%) for 2.35pts (+18%) at odds of 4/1 and shorter
  • 4/12 933.3%) for 15.81pts (+131.7%) on 2 yr olds
  • and 3/13 (23.1%) for 22.59pts (+173.8%) on female runners...

...whilst trainer Mark Johnston is also no slouch around this neck of the woods either. He doesn't actually send many runners here, but they do well enough for at least a second glance, as since 2014, they are...

with a near 1 in 6 strike rate producing a yield just shy of 10%. A satisfactory return for a long-term investment, I suppose, but it's not sexy or exciting, is it? So where should we focus our Johnston/Salisbury betting, Chris?

Well, you could stick to 2 year olds running at Classes 1 to 3, sent off at Evens to 16/1, who are...

...which almost doubles our strike rate, multiplies our profit more than fives times over and also includes of note today...

  • 5/13 (38.5%) for 30.18pts (+232.2%) in fields of 5-10 runners
  • 4/7 (57.1%) for 12.09pts (+172.7%) were placed LTO
  • 2/7 (28.6%) for 22.46pts (+320.9%) at Class 3
  • and 2/6 (33.3%) for 20.65pts (+344.2%) over this 6f C&D...

...whilst in fields of 5-10 runners, horses who made the frame LTO are also 4/7 (57.1% SR) for 12.09pts (+172.7% ROI), including a win and a place from two Class 3 efforts and a win and a place from two over this 6f C&D...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Julie Johnston @ 7/2 BOG as was widely available at 7.45am Friday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 5.00 Salisbury

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!