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Stat of the Day: The 2019 Review

*IMPORTANT: the email I sent this morning opened with "Let me start with the caveat. Free, potentially, yes; but risk-free"

It should have said "Free, potentially, yes; but NOT risk-free" - sincere apologies. Matt

Last Tuesday marked the end of SotD's eighth full calendar year since its inception as a non-tipping piece back in November 2011, so thank you to those of you (including Matt) for putting up with me all that time!

The logic behind this daily feature is to take a slight step from the normal form book/ race card approach to betting, since form is temporary at best and race cards are still largely inadequate, although Matt's efforts here at Geegeez are the exception to the rule.

My brief is to give some statistical pointers as to how you could frame a bet from another angle and whilst we don't expect all of them to win, we do expect a decent run for our money and often the stats we quote will pinpoint winners elsewhere too. So it's really more than a tip, it's a way-in to a bet that you can use over and over again.

We attract lots of new members to the site every year, thanks mainly to the continual improvements made to the racing toolkit and partly due to SotD's success, and this is bringing in more savvy punters looking for better data, information and racecards than they'll find anywhere else on the 'net, so here's briefly how I "do my bit"...

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My first port of call is find runners who fit a stat (or usually a number of stats) suggesting they will go well. I have quite a large portfolio of saved micro-systems and angles (our Query Tool is brilliant for this) and they generate a list of possibles each day. I also look at the Shortlist report and the qualifiers generated from the Report Angles facility and I end up with a fairly long list of horses/races to assess.

I then cross off the races that I don't even want to consider and only then do I start to look at a race card. Where I have multiple selections in a race, I'll then make a decision on which would be my preferred runner in the race. At this point, I should now have less than 10 races/horses on my shortlist, I then put them in an order that I think reflects their likelihood of winning and at this point, I look at the prices.

Once I've got the prices, I cross out those that don't offer me enough perceived value and then the one that now stands top of the list is the daily selection. We aim to have the selection online in the early evening before racing (preferably by 6.00pm) where possible but occasionally due to home-life, travel plans and/or holidays, it can be later, but there's a selection every day except Sundays and we don't take Bank Holidays, Easter nor Christmas off!

That said, we are currently trialling a morning of racing delivery of Stat of the Day, with the pick generally online by 8.15am.

I try to find runners priced around the 11/4 to 6/1 mark at BOG prices and look for some value in the odds achieved, but sometimes I have to stray outside those parameters a little. A large proportion of selections are sent off at much shorter odds than advised, and constantly beating SP is a key in making long-term profits. Basically, our profit figures aren't massaged by some freakishly long-priced winners, nor is our strike rate bolstered by a string of odds-on jollies.

What we do have is a consistent approach that aims to highlight one value selection per day and although this "one-a-day" stats-based approach to bet selection suffers all the obligatory peaks and troughs associated with betting on horses, we did manage to make a profit yet again in 2019, but it was a real tough slog towards the end of the year, if I'm brutally honest.

Normally at this point, I'm typing this out with a fairly satisfied smile on my face, but the final quarter of the year gave us little to smile about. Nevertheless, the bigger picture is that we managed to secure yet another yearly profit, our eighth on the bounce. We're quietly proud of our record of profit in every year since SotD's inception, for what is essentially a free add-on to the Gold toolbox package, but we're also aware that recent form has been below long-term levels... although I think I said that form was only temporary anyway!

A full month-by-month analysis of SotD's results can always be found at
http://www.geegeez.co.uk/stat-of-the-day-month-by-month/ , and the overall picture for 2019 was as follows:

Number of bets/selections/pts wagered: 290 (two fewer than 2018)
Winning Bets: 66 (67 in 2018)
Strike Rate: 22.76% (2018 = 22.95%)
Average payout from winning bet : 3.93/1 (2018 = 3.57/1)

Yearly Profit: 35.46pts (2018 = 14.16pts)
Profit on Stakes Invested: 12.23% (2018 was 4.85%)

From inception in November 2011 to end 2019: +531.87 points

The overall bottom line is still, we think, impressive and one that both Matt and I (it's a team game) are happy with; and, although I've been quite vocal in expressing my disappointment about the way 2019 fizzled out, a 12.23% return actually shows us in a good light against many of our peers.

We're already up and running for January, a month that has traditionally been kind to us, so fingers crossed for more of the same and a good year overall.

Many Thanks for being a part of Geegeez and SotD,
Chris, Matt and the whole Geegeez team.

***Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so if you're not part of our community already, why not take your £1/30-day trial now?

Click here for more details.

Stat of the Day: The 2018 Review

A little over four weeks ago was the end of SotD's seventh full calendar year since its inception as a non-tipping piece back in November 2011. I should possibly clarify for those who haven't been with us all that time!

SotD was designed to give some statistical pointers as to how you could frame a bet without relying purely on the formbook or the racecards, which as we all know were (and largely still are ) inadequate back then. So, whilst we don't expect all of them to win, we do expect a fair run and often the stats we quote will pinpoint winners elsewhere too, so it's really more than a tip.

We know that we acquire lots of new subscribers every year thanks to previous years' successes from this service and also due to more savvy punters looking for better data, information and racecards than they'll find anywhere else on the 'net, so a brief overview of SotD is as follows...

Whilst form and other variable parameters come in to play when normally making a bet, SotD's first port of call is find runners who fit a stat (or usually a number of stats) suggesting they will go well.

Your first 30 days for just £1

We aim to have the selection online in the early evening before racing (preferably by 6.00pm) where possible but occasionally due to home-life, travel plans and/or holidays, it can be later, but there's a selection every day except Sundays and we don't take Bank Holidays, Easter nor Christmas off!

We try to find runners priced around the 11/4 to 6/1 mark at BOG prices and look for some value in the odds achieved, but sometimes we have to stray outside those parameters a little. A large proportion of our selections run at much shorter odds than we advise and constantly beating SP is a key in making long-term profits. Basically, our profit figures aren't massaged by some freakishly long priced winners, nor is our strike rate bolstered by a string of odds-on jollies.

What we do have is a consistent approach that aims to highlight one value selection per day and although this "one-a-day" stats-based approach to bet selection suffers all the obligatory peaks and troughs associated with betting on horses, we did manage to make a profit yet again in 2018, but it was a real tough slog and easily our worst year so far, which was made even more acute following on from 2017's stellar performance!

Normally at this point, I'm typing this out with a fairly satisfied smile on my face, but the bulk of 2018 from Easter onwards gave me little to smile about to be honest and the only real cause for celebration is that we managed to secure another yearly profit, our 7th on the bounce. We're rightfully proud of our 7 year record for what is essentially a free add-on to the Gold toolbox package, but we're aware that 2019 needs to be better.

A full month-by-month analysis of SotD's results can, of course, always be found at
http://www.geegeez.co.uk/stat-of-the-day-month-by-month/ , but the overall picture for 2018 was as follows:

Number of bets/selections/pts wagered: 292 (two fewer than 2017!)
Winning Bets: 67 (well down from 83 in 2017)
Strike Rate: 22.95% (2017 = 28.23%)
Average payout from winning bet : 3.57/1 (2017 = 3.89/1)

Yearly Profit: 14.16pts (2017 = 112.05pts)
Profit on Stakes Invested: 4.85% (2017 was 38.11%)

Our overall bottom line is still very impressive and one that both Matt and I (it's a team game) are rightfully very proud of, but we're well aware that 2019 needs to be better for both of us and more importantly for you, our loyal subscribers.

That said, the first four weeks of this year have gone well and we're already guaranteed to be in front for the at the end of next month, so we're now hoping to kick on and make 2019 something more like 2017 than 2018!. The challenge now, of course, is to extend January's form for as long as we can throughout the year.

Thanks for sticking with Geegeez and SotD,
Chris, Matt and the whole Geegeez team.

***Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take your £1/30-day trial now?

Click here for more details.

The Ups and Downs of Tipping Services

Tipping Services. We all know of them. Many of us follow one or more, and many of you will follow Stat of the Day, geegeez.co.uk's own "anti-tipping" service which is currently enduring a difficult run. Let's call it a correction.

In this post, I want to talk about tipping services generally. Not about how to tell a good one from a bad one, or what measures you should put in place to protect yourself from unscrupulous charlatans. You can find that (useful) info elsewhere if you need it; or you can be assured that the services we trial and review here are almost always legit (after several hundred reviews there is the occasional bad apple in the barrel, sadly, but we do a lot of legwork to save you the time and effort).

No, I want to talk about the psychology of following a tipping service.

When we sign up to a tipster, we are essentially deciding to trust someone else's opinion. There should be good reasons for that, reasons way beyond the bold claims of an email or a sales page. Reasons even beyond solid proofed results over a notable period of time. We need to be clear about things like losing runs, how selections are arrived at, when they're delivered, whether quoted prices are attainable, and so on.

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The Trouble with Hugh Taylor...

As an example, Hugh Taylor of Attheraces is a superb tipster, perhaps the best public picker in the game. But... he makes his picks on the morning of the racing, which for many people is a no go due to work or other commitments; and the prices, often only available in one place, evaporate in seconds; and even if you're able to get those prices, your betting accounts very quickly get marked and then restricted.

In other words, following Hugh Taylor simply isn't something which is feasible beyond a few short weeks. That's not his fault, but we need to be clear that those superb - and legitimate, to a degree - results are published for academic purposes only, as nobody can achieve them or anything much like them for very long.

Ditto to a lesser degree Pricewise, although the Racing Post no longer publishes an advised price because the nature of a price being printed in the newspaper the next day while markets continue to operate overnight is anachronistic.

So we need more than just good results to have success following a tipster.

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The answer vs the working out

When we were back in school, maths exams would award marks for getting the correct answer. But there would generally be at least as many marks available for showing your "working out". That is, the rationale you followed and the means by which you arrived at the number you ultimately scribbled on the paper.

Tipping is the same. Some guys send the name of a horse and invite you to get on with it. No reasons, just a name. That's all well and good when they're winning - actually, it's not, but the malaise of this method is masked under such a scenario - but as soon as the losing run comes, what is there to fall back on?

Even if the deliverer of those names is really good, how can you know that?

It's my opinion that the best tipsters explain how they arrived at their selection. In that explanation may be more nutritional value than the pick itself, often much more.

For example, last week while sitting in for Chris on Stat of the Day, I flagged a horse called Secret Return at 8/1. He was sent off 3/1 favourite but finished nowhere. Now 8/1 is normally a good bit bigger than we post on Stat of the Day, but I wanted to share the name of someone I felt would be worthy of note in coming weeks. Here's what I wrote:

I wanted to highlight a new trainer who is definitely one to keep onside regardless of how today's (longer odds than usual) selection runs. His name is Paul George, and he's the son of Karen George. Since taking on the license he's hit the mark with some big priced winners, including 33/1 and 50/1, from just 18 starters so far.

Four of those 18 have won, and it would have been five but for Essgee Nics unseating - in a National Hunt Flat race - when leading inside the final furlong. Obviously with those big priced winners, George's figures are positive: he's +83.5 so far.

Like I say, Secret Return was well enough beaten on Saturday (though remains one to keep onside), but since then Paul George has run two horses, one of which won at 8/1 (the other was beaten at 28/1).

George has started really well and those who took the hint will have recouped their losing stakes from Saturday and then some. That's what I mean by the value in the working out.

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It's the same every day with Stat of the Day where Chris crunches a plethora of data and produces noteworthy takeaways on an almost daily basis. Even when the picks are not winning - more on that in a minute - there are things to note for followers' own wagering. And, to be fair, it's the same with Hugh Taylor's tips. And with anyone else worth their salt.

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Why follow a tipster?

So, why follow a tipster? As with most things in life, there are many paths that lead to such a decision. Some people are too busy to spend time in the form book, others don't trust themselves, and still others are simply not interested in the racing and see betting merely as a means to getting a few easy quids.

That last-named group are usually the first to cry foul, because they're not invested in the game and consequently derive no joy from the passage of a race: the result is all for them. No thrill, just bottom line. They take no accountability for their actions but, rather, want to outsource the getting of money whilst also abdicating the responsibility for the investment. Each to their own and all that, but there's little for such types here at geegeez.co.uk.

Most Gold subscribers who follow Stat of the Day also make their own selections from the data content we provide. One supplements the other, with the weighting varying from user to user. And, even in a losing run, those subscribers are informed along the way, the old grey matter inevitably absorbing snippets from day to day.

But, as I've hinted, following a tipster is not an abdication of responsibility. On the contrary. If you work for someone else, or someone else works for you, both of you are accountable for achieving - or not achieving - your goals.

The tipster follower's obligations include trialing a service before diving in (to check the volume of bets is acceptable, that the staking and time of delivery suits, that the odds range and associated losing runs are tolerable, etc etc); having a bankroll in line with expected downturns (and actually committing to using it); and making a strong determination to trust the service provider.

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Negative reinforcement

That last point is important. Most people who follow tipsters have lost money in a similar scenario before. Many will have repeated this cycle a number of times. As such, there is an expectation of failure very soon after joining a tipster who has suffered a handful of losers. Those previously burned - whether it was their fault or not (and, sorry, but generally fault lies at least in part with the tipster follower) - decide to bail early in the process to avoid what they perceive as an inevitable crushing loss.

And then they move to the next service.

And guess what?

Rinse. Repeat.

This is just stupid, right? If that's you, please stop. Just step out of the tipster arena and try and pick your own winners. Or do something else entirely. Because your fear of failure is preventing you from any chance of success.

Again, if that's you, please don't be upset by the message. Think about it. Think about how you engage with tipsters and what you can do differently to give yourself a better chance, either in the tipster sphere or on your own.

Because here's the thing: most people join tipping services when the service is trumpeting a significant winner or winning run. Sadly, we've already missed that nirvana moment, and typically they are few and far between.

"After a good run, expect a bad run; after a bad run, expect a good run"

That adage was told to me aeons ago and I've always kept it in mind. Nobody and no endeavour is immune to variance, to "the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune".

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Roger Variance

Variance is a statistical measure of how far data is spread out. There are more complex (and more accurate) definitions, but that will do for us here. In the case of racing results, it helps understand winning and losing runs and is relatable to average odds of winners and average win strike rate.

Let's take the classic coin toss example.

Heads has a 50% chance of winning, as does tails. But over the course of three spins, one or other could easily 'win' all three spins. However, over the course of 10,000 spins we'd expect something extremely close to a 50/50 split of heads/tails winners (assuming the coin is legit, etc). It is possible from that data, via standard deviation and other stuff I don't really understand, to calculate expected losing runs.

Using a set of verified results from a tipster service - or from one's own betting performance - we can perform a similar exercise.

The point here is more general, up a level. It is this: in any given sequence of bets there will be winning and losing runs which are out of line - often far out of line - with the overall average performance.

Five consecutive spins landing on heads is double what we'd expect, and thus tails has had no wins. But we wouldn't go changing the odds on tails coming in next, would we?

It's the same with long term proven tipping services. They will have winning runs, and they will have losing runs. Over a meaningful period of time, those will largely even out.

It might even be argued that the very best time to join a proven service is when it is in the teeth of a losing run.

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What of Stat of the Day?

So Stat of the Day has had a rubbish August, part of a moderate summer overall. That's hard to swallow, especially for newcomers to it: they've not had the golden spring or winter which preceded the current downturn to sustain them.

Have a look at this chart.

 

In the context of just over 2000 bets spanning nearly seven years, we can see that the current downturn is only the third worst overall. The worst was between October 2015 and May 2016. But note how by the end of 2016 the losses were eradicated, and by May 2017 that downturn was a distant memory.

Likewise in late 2012 and into early 2013, there was a slide. By the end of 2013, that was reversed and a largely unabated winning run sustained itself until mid-2015.

The trend (dotted) line is really clear in this graph, meaning there is a very strong overall correlation between time (and, given the metronomic one-a-day nature of SotD, number of bets) and profit.

Assuming nothing has changed in the selection methodology - and NOTHING HAS CHANGED IN THE SELECTION METHODOLOGY - the reversion to the norm will come.

We have lots of very long-term subscribers who love Stat of the Day. The reasons are in its consistency - relatively, of course, see above - and in the general availability of prices, and in the explanation behind every pick, and in the accessibility of the service (published tea time the night before racing), and in the reliability of the tipsters and the plaform, geegeez.co.uk, on which they are published.

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Summary

Tipping services are an up and down game. There are some good ones out there. I don't mean the over-exposed ones where you can't get on; but rather services like Racing Consultants and Cleeve Racing and, yes, Stat of the Day.

All of those services have losing runs. Losing runs do not invalidate the prior and future success of the services; they just twist your melon, man, as The Happy Mondays might conclude.

So, if you want to follow a tipster, do your due diligence (or allow us to do it for you) and know that it can be bad before it's good.

Good luck!

Matt

Stat of the Day: The 2017 Review

We recently (well, just over 7 weeks ago : I actually forgot to do this piece back then!) came to the end of the sixth full calendar year for Stat of the Day, which was Geegeez' first real venture into daily tipping, which was launched to our unsuspecting readers more as a daily pointer rather than an actual tip back in November 2011.

We know that we acquire lots of new subscribers every year thanks to previous years' successes from this service and also due to more savvy punters looking for better data, information and racecards than they'll find anywhere else on the 'net, so a brief overview of SotD is as follows...

Whilst form and other variable parameters come in to play when normally making a bet, SotD's first port of call is find runners who fit a stat (or usually a number of stats) suggesting they will go well.

We aim to have the selection online in the early evening before racing (around 6-7 pm) where possible but occasionally due to home-life, travel plans and/or holidays, it can be later, but there's a selection every day except Sundays and we don't take Bank Holidays, Easter nor Christmas off!

Your first 30 days for just £1

We try to find runners priced around the 3/1 to 6/1 mark at BOG prices and look for some value in the odds achieved, but sometimes we have to stray outside those parameters a little. A large proportion of our selections run at much shorter odds than we advise and constantly beating SP is a key in making long-term profits. Basically, our profit figures aren't massaged by some freakishly long priced winners, nor is our strike rate bolstered by a string of odds-on jollies.

What we do have is a consistent approach that aims to highlight one value selection per day and although this "one-a-day" stats-based approach to bet selection suffers all the obligatory peaks and troughs associated with betting on horses, we did manage to make a decent profit yet again in 2017.

Without blowing the collective trumpets of myself, Steve and of course, Matt, we're very proud of the figures accrued to date and we can safely say there aren't many (if any!) better services around. In fact, most paid-for services would kill for our figures.

Where possible, we'd like SotD to cover your subscriptions to Gold, making the rest of the site free to use as you see fit and in 2017, a level stake of £2.65 was all that was needed to cover a £297 per year annual subscription. This was achieved via 10 profitable months from 12 (we lost 2.75pts in July and 4.37pts in August)

A full month-by-month analysis of SotD's results can, of course, always be found at
http://www.geegeez.co.uk/stat-of-the-day-month-by-month/ , but the overall picture for 2017 was as follows:

Number of bets/selections/pts wagered: 294 (exactly the same as 2016!)
Winning Bets: 83 (up from 70 in 2016)
Strike Rate: 28.23% (2016 = 23.81%)
Average payout from winning bet : 3.89/1 (2016 = 3.86/1)

Yearly Profit: 112.05pts (2016 = 46.24pts)
Profit on Stakes Invested: 38.11% (2016 was 15.73%)

These are pretty impressive figures considering we give a selection every day rain or shine, if we say so ourselves and we'll be doing our level best to maintain our success in 2018, although we're very well aware it'll be a tough ask!

That said, the first seven weeks of the year have gone well and with profit already guaranteed for February, we'll now have made money in 18 of the last 20 months. The challenge now, of course, is to maintain that consistency.

Thanks for sticking with Geegeez and SotD,
Chris, Steve, Matt and the whole Geegeez team.

***Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take your £1/30-day trial now?

Click here for more details.

Stat of the Day: The 2016 Review

Saturday saw us reach the end of the fifth full calendar year for Stat of the Day, which was Geegeez' first real venture into daily tipping.

We know that we acquired lots of new subscribers over the year thanks to previous years' successes, so a brief overview of SotD is as follows...

Whilst form and other variable parameters come in to play when normally making a bet, SotD's first port of call is find runners who fit a stat ( or usually a number of stats) suggesting they will go well.

We aim to have the selection online by the time most people rise for breakfast, where possible and it's usually done well before midnight the night before the meeting.

Your first 30 days for just £1

We try to find runners priced around the 3/1 to 6/1 mark at BOG prices and look for some value in the odds achieved. A large proportion of our selections run at much shorter odds than we advise and constantly beating SP is a key in making long-term profits. Basically, our profit figures aren't massaged by some freakishly long priced winners, nor is our strike rate bolstered by a string of odds-on jollies.

What we do have is a consistent approach that aims to highlight one value selection per day and although this "one-a-day" stats-based approach to bet selection suffers all the obligatory peaks and troughs associated with betting on horses, we have managed to make a profit yet again this year.

Without blowing the collective trumpets of myself, Matt and now Steve, we're very proud of the figures accrued to date and we can safely say there aren't many (if any!) better services around. In fact, most paid-for services would kill for our figures.

Where possible, I'd like SotD to cover your subscriptions to Gold, making the rest of the site free to use as you see fit and in 2016, a level stake of £5.38 was all that was needed to cover a £249 per year annual subscription.

A full month-by-month analysis of SotD's results can, of course, always be found at
http://www.geegeez.co.uk/stat-of-the-day-month-by-month/ , but the overall picture for 2016 was as follows:

Number of bets/selections/pts wagered: 294 (quite a few non-runners this year)
Winning Bets: 70
Strike Rate: 23.81%

Yearly Profit: 46.24pts
Profit on Stakes Invested: 15.73%

These are quite impressive figures considering we give a selection every day rain or shine, if we say so ourselves and we'll be doing our level best to maintain our success in 2017.

Thanks for sticking with us/SotD,
Chris, Matt, Steve and the whole Geegeez team.

***Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take your £1/30-day trial now?

Click here for more details.

Stat of the Day: The 2015 Review

Last Friday saw us reach the end of the fourth full calendar year for Stat of the Day, which was Geegeez' first real venture into daily tipping.

We know that we acquired lots of new subscribers over the year thanks to previous years' successes, so a brief overview of SotD is as follows...

Whilst form and other variable parameters come in to play when normally making a bet, SotD's first port of call is find runners who fit a stat ( or usually a number of stats) suggesting they will go well.

We aim to have the selection online by the time most people rise for breakfast, where possible and it's usually done well before midnight the night before the meeting.

Your first 30 days for just £1

We try to find runners priced around the 3/1 to 6/1 mark at BOG prices and look for some value in the odds achieved. A large proportion of our selections run at much shorter odds than we advise and constantly beating SP is a key in making long-term profits. Basically, our profit figures aren't massaged by some freakishly long priced winners, nor is our strike rate bolstered by a string of odds-on jollies.

What we do have is a consistent approach that aims to highlight one value selection per day and although this "one-a-day" stats-based approach to bet selection suffers all the obligatory peaks and troughs associated with betting on horses, we have managed to make a profit yet again this year.

Without blowing the collective trumpets of both myself and Matt, we're very proud of the figures accrued to date and we can safely say there aren't many (if any!) better services around. In fact, most paid-for services would kill for our figures.

Where possible, I'd like SotD to cover your monthly subscriptions to Gold, making the rest of the site free to use as you see fit and in 2015, a level stake of £3.32 was all that was needed to cover a £24 per month worst case scenario.

A full month-by-month analysis of SotD's results can, of course, always be found at
http://www.geegeez.co.uk/stat-of-the-day-month-by-month/ , but the overall picture for 2015 was as follows:

Number of bets/selections/pts wagered: 287 (a large number of non-runners this year)
Winning Bets: 81
Strike Rate: 28.22%

Yearly Profit: 86.8pts
Profit on Stakes Invested: 30.2%

This is no flash in the pan freak year, as the abovce figures take the last two years results to 165/592 (27.87% SR) for 175.18pts profit at an ROI of 29.59%, showing remarkable consistency over a sustained perod of time.

These are quite phenomenal figures, if we say so ourselves and we'll be doing our level best to maintain our success in 2016.

Thanks for sticking with us/SotD,
Chris & Matt

***Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take your free trial now?

Click here for more details.

Stat of the Day: The 2014 Review

SotD: Review of 2013

SotD: Review of 2014

Today, New Year's Eve 2014, sees the end of the third full calendar year for Stat of the Day, which was Geegeez' first real venture into daily tipping.

We know we've acquired lots of new subscribers of late, so a brief overview of SotD is as follows...

Whilst form and other variable parameters come in to play when normally making a bet, SotD's first port of call is find runners who fit a stat ( or usually a number of stats) suggesting they will go well.

We aim to have the selection online by the time most people rise for breakfast, where possible and it's usually done before midnight the night before the meeting.

We try to find runners priced around the 3/1 to 6/1 mark at BOG prices and look for some value in the odds achieved. A large proportion of our selections run at much shorter odds than we advise and constantly beating SP is a key in making long-term profits. Basically, our profit figures aren't massaged by some freakishly long priced winners, nor is our strike rate bolstered by a string of odds-on jollies.

What we do have is a consistent approach that aims to highlight one value selection per day and although this "one-a-day" stats-based approach to bet selection suffers all the obligatory peaks and troughs associated with betting on horses, we have managed to make a profit yet again this year.

Without blowing the collective trumpets of both myself and Matt, we're very proud of the figures accrued to date and we can safely say there aren't many (if any!) better services around. In fact, most paid-for services would kill for our figures.

A full month-by-month analysis of SotD's results can, of course, always be found at
http://www.geegeez.co.uk/stat-of-the-day-month-by-month/ , but the overall picture for 2014 was as follows:

Number of bets/selections/pts wagered: 305
Winning Bets: 84
Strike Rate: 27.54%

Yearly Profit: 88.38pts
Profit on Stakes Invested: 28.98%

These are quite phenomenal figures, if we say so ourselves and we'll be doing our level best to maintain our success in 2015.

Thanks for sticking with us/SotD,
Chris & Matt

***Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take your free trial now?

Click here for more details.

Value Value VALUE

Where to find value...

Where to find value...

In the good old days, punters used to talk about 'the three D's'. These were discipline, discipline and discipline. Many of you - like me - will relate to that readily enough, as selectivity is generally the key to success in betting.

But in the modern day betting supermarket, where the exact same product (i.e. a horse in a race, or a team in a match) is offered at often curiously differing prices, depending on the brand (i.e. the bookmaker), the three V's - value, value and value - might be the new maxim for successful betting.

Now, obviously, discipline is still as relevant as it ever was. It will always be a fundamental cornerstone that sets apart those who win from those who don't. But life has become a lot easier with the advent of a) online bookmaker offers, and b) comparison portals. In a second we can see which bookmaker has the best offer on our fancy.

Better yet, if the bookie offers Best Odds Guaranteed, we have the chance of a price drift topping up our odds still further.

What this ultimately means is that you could be, for instance, in the beer aisle, looking at twelve cases of Old Gobhoblin Pale Fizzer. Each case is the same, and seven of them have the same price on them, £9.99. But the other five are different. Two say £10.50, two say £9.49, and the other one says £7.99. You really like Old Gobhoblin Pale Fizzer. Which one do you pick up?

It's a no brainer that you'd pick up the cheapest, right? I mean, that's a 20% difference in price in your favour and, if you drink a case of Pale Fizzer a day, you'll have almost enough money saved to pay for the liver transplant 😉

But here's where it gets better. When you get to the checkout, the cashier says, "Oh, this is on special offer this week. It's only £6.99". Bingo, you've saved another 10%.

This is EXACTLY how shopping around for the best odds, and using Best Odds Guaranteed, works. We're looking for the best bargain every time.

How many of us would knowingly pay 20% more for our shopping than we needed to? Not many, of course. And yet, there are still lots and lots and lots of punters who think it doesn't matter about getting the best price; that a point here or there makes no difference.

It's just weird. I mean, the survey we recently did revealed that most people who visit geegeez bet every day. And yet 42% have five or less chances to get a bargain - in other words, five or less accounts.

Let me just quickly say that if you mainly bet for fun/entertainment/to solve the puzzle, then it maybe doesn't matter. But to anyone who said they bet to win money, and they have just a few accounts, you are making it extremely difficult for yourselves.

OK, sermon over!

**

Things you need to know today then...

1. Racebets is the latest bookmaker to offer Best Odds Guaranteed. They are a growing brand in UK and appear in most odds comparison charts these days. They have a dizzying array of money back concessions, and offer a £50 deposit match for new customers. If you use BOG bookies, add this to your set.

Your first 30 days for just £1

2. How about a completely risk free no catch bet? Betbright are offering new customers a £30 no lose bet on the World Cup semi-finals. Here's how it works: you make a bet. If it wins, you get paid out. If it loses, you get your money back. You follow? You must use this link to qualify, as it has a special tracking code associated with it.

3. If you already have a Betbright account, note that they'll be refunding correct score and scorecast bets if a semi-final match ends 0-0. Given that the Dutch and the Argentinians have had real trouble scoring in the knockout phases, and that Brazil could be toothless without Neymar, and that Germany have had two 1-0's in their last three games, this looks a very good safety net if that's your sort of wager.

**

Let's talk about another manifestation of value. Tote pools. Not just any old tote pool. Some of them are rancid pools. But some are not. Those with guaranteed pool sizes where the amount of player cash falls short of the guarantee are value. Rollovers are value. Why? Because in both cases, someone else is putting money in the pot for you to potentially take out.

I've had enormous success with Colossus Bets during this World Cup, netting three Pick 4's worth over £3,700. Each of them to a 20p winning stake (though my total bet stake was significantly higher). Colossus is a pool bet on correct scores, and every pool is guaranteed, with many of them not reaching the guarantee figure from player funds. Put another way, the pools are being subsidised.

After my own success (£1,059 for a £36 bet), I formed a little syndicate - seven readers and I each put in £50, to make a pot of £400. On our first attempt, we scooped just over £1,500 (£1,570); and on our second attempt we scooped just under £1,500 (£1,485).

Each of these pools was attractive to me/the syndicate because it had either a rollover or a guaranteed minimum fund that I didn't believe would be matched. That is to say that each time I was helping myself to a spot of someone else's cash. Nice, right?

The last Colossus Bets Pick 4 of the World Cup starts with the first semi-final tonight, and then takes in semi-final 2, the 3rd/4th place match, and the final. Obviously, it involves some conjecture into which teams will make the final, but that's the same for everyone and adds spice to the mix!

Our syndicate has dissolved now, and I'll be having a solo crack at the £50,000 guaranteed pool. At the time of writing, there's just £3,880 in the pool, meaning there is a strong likelihood of the pot being subsidised by Colossus. Which means, of course, that there's free money up for grabs, if we're smart/lucky enough to nail a winning quartet of correct scores.

You can read my review of ColossusBets here. And if you've had a crack at these pools already, leave a comment and let people know what you thought, and how you got on.

**

Value, Value, VALUE. How good a value proposition is free? Answer, varying degrees of good.

Most free stuff is free for a reason. It will actually cost you time (and possibly money) to figure out it's no good.

Other free stuff is free for another reason: it showcases the value of a product or service and acts as a potential incentive for users to 'trade up'. It's great content from which the user can benefit, and there's no hard feelings if that user doesn't want to move to a premium level of service.

Welcome to Double Dutch, the daily free tip service on geegeez. It's a service that currently shows a profit of 68.08 points, from just 260 betting days. We bet two points a day, split across two horses in two races - a 2 x 2 double. And the return on stakes is over 13%, which is way better than a majority of premium services.

We love - perhaps I should say, I love - this service, and we're very proud to offer it. But for some reason it only gets around 200 views a day. Again, weird. Anyway, today's selections can be found in various ways:

i. Go to Horse Racing Tips in the top menu
ii. Click the post on the left hand side of the home page, called 'Double Dutch, 8th July 2014'
iii. Click here

And, if you like Double Dutch, then perhaps you'd like to know about our premium level tipping service, Stat of the Day. This is a one a day service, Monday to Saturday, which has been running since November 2011. In that time, it's accumulated £4,194.20 to £20 level stakes (as at end June; July is well in profit too).

Those aren't mythical 'past performance' figures, they're real time figures from a live service. We get amazing feedback on this service, and I really should put a file together because there must be over 200 - maybe more than that - incredible comments. Here are a couple from the last few days:

PauljD said:

Having been out all day this was a “fire and forget” bet so a very pleasant surprise when I got to the results! Very nice drift as well. I note that the DD came in too although I missed that one, got yesterday’s though. Very well done and a big thank you for this week’s tips.

Doshtosh said:

On days like this, and there are so many, I want to write in to thank you, Chris and Matt, for a service, the likes of which I have never seen before, and if I wasn’t involved, thank God I am, I wouldn’t have believed existed. It’s not just the winners and profit, though they are no 1 but so much more on the web site and notifications to our emails. Thanks, so very much and have a great weekend. I hope we meet, someday, even if there will be sore heads the following day…..at my expense, it would be a pleasure.

RonCombo said:

What a brilliant day on Saturday Chris. SoTD with a super drift and DD, all coming in as winners. Then I had De Rigeur (14s) from the Shortlist and Salvatore Fury (9/2) and Sandra’s Diamond (13/2), both from the Tracker system which I bought into. Thank you (yet again) GeeGeez!

And fatboyjim said:

Incredible stuff once again. Got to be the best value out there, I have finally learned how to use the race cards to suit my own style of punting and had some big winners over the weekend.

If anyone remembers the SotD highlighted the Haggas/Hanagan a couple of weeks ago, well they certainly did the job yesterday. Also had Mister Wiseman today using the cards.

Diamond in the service though is the wonderful SotD, brilliant. I use 2% of rolling bank and I am in dreamland.

Those comments related to just one winner on one day. Stat of the Day has had 248 winners from 861 runners as at the end of June, a strike rate of 29% - favourites win at about 30%! - and for a return on investment of a mouth-watering pant-wetting account-threatening 24%.

All from one bet a day.

Best of all? This is just one part of the Geegeez Gold service. Worth way more than £24 a month on its own, it is supported by the racecards, form tools and reports that you will have heard me talk about previously.

Value. Value Value VALUE. It underscores everything we try to do here at geegeez, from offering a tip service to helping people understand the 'easy' ways to get the best chance of winning at betting.

You can try Gold for ten days for free (now that's value!). And if you like it, you can stay on board for 80p a day. You know what the guys above think about it, so perhaps it's time you gave it a whirl. What have you got to lose?

Here's the link if you want to join the hundreds of Gold subscribers whose betting has gone to another level.

Oh, and while I'm at it, the three Gold subscribers below found 33/1 winner Prince Tom yesterday using their Gold subscription. It was a fairly obvious selection for a number of reasons highlighted on Gold. But with form figures of /PB-5P the public totally ignored it. It paid 44.81 Betfair SP.

Comments and tweets yesterday about Geegeez Gold

Comments and tweets yesterday about Geegeez Gold

.

A couple of quite big sites have asked to trial Geegeez Gold, and the first of their reviews is due soon. This site is not known for effusive praise of products and services, and they never go overboard. In fact, subscribers pay specifically for their hard core unbiased reviews. Well, I've seen a draft copy of their Geegeez Gold review and... let's just say they like Gold. A lot!

Click here to take your ten day free trial of Geegeez Gold

Matt

p.s. I'll be back on Thursday with a preview of day one from Newmarket's excellent July Festival meeting.

p.p.s. Have you any thoughts on the above? Value? Colossus? Stat of the Day/Double Dutch? Geegeez Gold? Leave a comment to enlighten those who may not have seen what you've seen, or know what you know. (And thanks!)

Stat of the Day: Month-by-Month

SOTD Month by Month

SOTD Month by Month

We've had a few requests for a monthly breakdown of SotD's results since its inception last November, so I've quickly put this together for you all.

I don't want SotD to generate some form of life force of its own, or for it to deflect from the rest of the site, but I'll leave this up for future reference and I'll just add to it at the end of each subsequent month.

November 2011:
6 winners from 13 = 46.15% S.R
P/L: +10.24pts at BFSP
POI = 78.79%
plus a 12.03pt profit from 1 forecast

December:
3 winners from 26 = 11.54% S.R
P/L: -12.06pts at BFSP
POI = -46.38%

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

January 2012:
11 winning bets from 30 = 36.67% S.R
P/L: +32.82pts at BFSP/BOG
POI = +109.4%

February:
8 winners from 27 = 29.63% S.R
P/L: +17.25pts
POI = +84.38%

March:
10 winners from 30 = 33.33% S.R
P/L: +15.50pts
POI = +51.67%

April:
7 winners from 23 = 30.43% S.R
P/L: +4.53pts
POI = +19.70%

May:
8 winners from 29 = 27.59% S.R
P/L: +3.84pts
POI = +13.24%

June:
8 winners from 27.5 = 29.09% S.R
P/L: -1.71pts
POI = -6.22%

July:
12 winners from 28 = 42.86% S.R
P/L: +27.38pts
POI = +97.79%

August:
7 winners from 29 = 24.14% S.R
P/L: +5.19pts
POI = +17.90%

September:
10 winners from 27 = 37.04% S.R
P/L: +25.15pts
POI = +93.15%

October:
12 winners from 30 = 50.00% S.R
P/L: -4.67pts
POI = -15.57%

November:
7 winners from 26 = 26.92% S.R
P/L: +0.18pts
POI = +0.69%

December:
4 winners from 26 = 15.38% S.R
P/L: -6.50pts
POI = -25.00%

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

January 2013:
9 winners from 28 = 32.14% S.R
P/L: +6.33pts
POI = +22.61%

February:
4 winners from 28 = 14.29% S.R
P/L: -17.64pts
POI = -63.00%

March:
8 winners from 28 = 28.57% S.R
P/L: -10.57pts
POI = -37.75%

April:
7 winners from 30 = 23.33% S.R
P/L: -7.47pts
POI = -24.90%

May:
9 winners from 30 = 30.00% S.R
P/L: +12.83pts
POI = +42.77%

June:
5 winners from 29 = 17.24% S.R
P/L: -8.00pts
POI = -27.59%

July:
10 winners from 30 = 33.33% S.R
P/L: +16.48pts
POI = +54.93%

August:
6 winners from 31 = 19.35% S.R
P/L: -6.60pts
POI = -21.29%

September:
8 winners from 30 = 26.67% S.R
P/L: +4.75pts
POI = +15.83%

October:
8 winners from 27 = 29.63% S.R
P/L: +6.23pts
POI = +23.07%

November:
5 winners from 12 = 41.67% S.R
P/L: +22.53pts
POI = +187.75%

December:
8 winners from 27 = 29.63% S.R
P/L: +4.75pts
POI = +17.59%

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

January 2014:
8 winners from 29 = 27.59% S.R
P/L: +10.88pts
ROI = +37.52%

February:
9 winners from 28 = 32.14% S.R
P/L: +4.74pts
ROI = +16.93%

March:
4 winners from 25 = 16.00% S.R
P/L: -5.44pts
ROI = -21.76%

Your first 30 days for just £1

April:
8 winners from 25 = 32.00% S.R
P/L: +16.58pts
ROI = +66.32%

May:
9 winners from 26 = 34.62% S.R.
P/L: +15.58pts
ROI = +59.92%

June:
9 winners from 25 = 36.00% S.R.
P/L: +14.58pts
ROI = +58.32%

July:
7 winners from 26 = 26.92% S.R.
P/L: +14.52pts
ROI = +55.85%

August:
6 winners from 25 = 24.00% S.R.
P/L: +0.30pts
ROI = +1.20%

September:
10 winners from 26 = 38.46% S.R.
P/L: +23.73pts
ROI = +91.27%

October:
5 winners from 24 = 20.83% S.R.
P/L: +0.96pts
ROI = +4.00%

November:
5 winners from 23 = 21.74% S.R.
P/L: -3.80pts
ROI = -12.17%

December:
4 winners from 23 = 17.39% S.R
P/L: -4.25pts
ROI = -18.48%

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

January 2015:
7 winners from 23 = 30.43% S.R.
P/L: +8.88pts
ROI = +38.61%

February:
7 winners from 24 = 29.17% S.R
P/L: +3.10pts
ROI = +12.92%

March:
5 winners from 24 = 20.83% S.R
P/L: +0.45pts
ROI = +1.88%

April:
10 winners from 26 = 38.46% S.R.
P/L: +24.13pts
ROI = +92.81%

May:
6 winners from 24 = 25.00% S.R.
P/L: +1.92pts
ROI = +8.00%

June:
11 winners from 25 = 44.00% S.R.
P/L: +24.28pts
ROI = +97.12%

July:
9 winners from 23 = 39.13% S.R.
P/L: +18.21pts
POI = +79.17%

August:
10 winners from 24 = 41.67% S.R.
P/L: +24.58pts
ROI = +102.42%

September:
3 winners from 22 = 13.64% S.R
P/L: -6.50pts
ROI = -29.55%

October:
6 winners from 25 = 24.00% S.R.
P/L: +4.33pts
ROI = +17.32%

November:
5 winners from 24 = 20.83% S.R.
P/L: -3.33pts
ROI = -13.87%

December:
2 winners from 23 = 8.70% S.R.
P/L: -13.25pts
ROI = -57.61%

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

January 2016:
5 winners from 23 = 21.74 S.R.
P/L: -3.52pts
ROI = -15.30%

February:
2 winners from 23 = 8.70% SR
P/L: -10.00pts
ROI = -43.48%

March:
3 winners from 27 = 11.11% SR
P/L: -12.50pts
ROI = -46.30%

April:
5 winners from 25 = 20% SR
P/L: -1.20pts
ROI = -4.8%

May:
10 winners from 25 = 40.00% SR
P/L: +21.73pts
ROI = +86.92%

June:
2 winners from 24 = 8.33% SR
P/L: -13.00pts
ROI = -45.00%

July:
8 winners from 26 = 30.77% SR
P/L: +9.00pts
ROI = +36.42%

August:
7 winners from 26 = 26.92% SR
P/L: +7.72pts
ROI = +29.69%

September:
9 winners from 26 = 34.62% SR
P/L: +25.53pts
ROI = +98.19%

October:
6 winners from 25 = 24.00% SR
P/L: +0.13pts
ROI = +0.52%

November:
5 winners from 21 = 23.81% SR
P/L: +4.35pts
ROI = +20.71%.

December:
8 winners from 23 = 34.78% SR
P/L: +18.00pts
ROI = +78.26%

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

January 2017:
10 winners from 26 = 38.46% SR
P/L: +29.50pts
ROI = +113.46%

February 2017:
9 winners from 22 = 40.91% SR
P/L: +24.25pts
ROI = +110.23%

March 2017:
9 winners from 27 = 33.33% SR
P/L: +22.38pts
ROI = +82.89%

April 2017:
5 winners from 24 = 20.83% SR
P/L: +0.58pts
ROI = +2.42%

May 2017:
8 winners from 25 = 32.00% SR
P/L: +8.61pts
ROI = +34.44%

June 2017:
7 winners from 22 = 31.82% SR
P/L: +11.13pts
ROI = +50.59%

July 2017:
6 winners from 26 = 24.00% SR
P/L: -2.75pts
ROI = -10.58%

August 2017:
5 winners from 26 = 19.23% SR
P/L: -4.37pts
ROI = -16.81%

September 2017:
7 winners from 24 = 29.17% SR
P/L: +10.50pts
ROI = +43.75%

October 2017:
6 winners from 26 = 27.78% SR
P/L: +0.66pts
ROI = +2.54%

November 2017:
5 winners from 25 = 20.00% SR
P/L: +1.65pts
ROI = +6.60%

December 2017:
6 winners from 21 = 28.57% SR
P/L: +9.91pts
ROI = +47.19%

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

January 2018 :
6 winners from 23 = 26.08% SR
P/L: +9.83pts
ROI = +42.74%

February 2018 :
8 winners from 23 = 34.78% SR
P/L: +11.65pts
ROI = +50.65%

March 2018 :
8 winners from 23 = 34.78% SR
P/L: +15.53pts
ROI = +67.52%

April 2018 :
5 winners from 23 = 21.74% SR
P/L: +1.50pts
ROI = +6.52%

May 2018 :
4 winners from 25 = 16.00% SR
P/L: -6.60pts
ROI = -26.40%

June 2018 :
4 winners from 24 = 16.66% SR
P/L: -8.10pts
ROI = -33.75%

July 2018 :
7 winners from 26 = 26.92% SR
P/L: +1.50pts
ROI = +5.77%

August 2018 :
2 winners from 26 = 7.69% SR
P/L: -17.37pts
ROI = -66.81%

September 2018 :
7 winners from 25 = 28.00% SR
P/L: +7.60pts
ROI = +30.40%

October 2018 :
7 winners from 25 = 28.00% SR
P/L: +4.73pts
ROI = +18.92%

November 2018 :
4 winners from 25 = 16.00% SR
P/L: -7.52pts
ROI = -30.08%

December 2018 :
5 winners from 24 = 20.83% SR
P/L: +1.41pts
ROI = +5.88%

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

January 2019 :
10 winners from 23 = 43.48% SR
P/L: +31.75pts
ROI = +138.04%

February 2019 :
4 winners from 19 = 21.05% SR
P/L: -1.50pts
ROI = -7.89%

March 2019 :
6 winners from 25 = 24.00% SR
P/L: +3.00pts
ROI = +12.00%

April 2019 :
7 winners from 26 = 26.92% SR
P/L: +7.10pts
ROI = +27.31%

May 2019 :
5 winners from 24 = 20.83% SR
P/L: +2.50pts
ROI = +10.42%

June 2019 :
8 winners from 22 = 36.36% SR
P/L: +16.75pts
ROI = +76.14%

July 2019 :
3 winners from 25 = 25.00% SR
P/L: -10.50pts
ROI = -42.00%

August 2019 :
7 winners from 26 = 26.92% SR
P/L: +5.83pts
ROI = +22.42%

September 2019 :
5 winners from 23 = 21.74% SR
P/L: +4.82pts
ROI = +20.96%

October 2019 :
0 winners from 27 = 0.00% SR
P/L: -27.00pts
ROI = -100.00%

November 2019 :
8 winners from 26 = 30.77% SR
P/L: +14.55pts
ROI = +55.96%

December 2019 :
3 winners from 22 = 13.64% SR
P/L: -9.84pts
ROI = -44.73%

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

January 2020 :
5 winners from 24 = 20.83% SR
P/L: +1.75pts
ROI = +7.29%

February 2020 :
3 winners from 25 = 12.00% SR
P/L: -8.92pts
ROI = -35.68%

June 2020 :
8 winners from 26 = 30.77% SR
P/L: +27.17pts
ROI = +104.50%

July 2020 :
4 winners from 24 = 16.66% SR
P/L: -2.30pts
ROI = -9.58%

August 2020 :
5 winners from 26 = 19.23% SR
P/L: -3.88pts
ROI = -14.92%

Overall:
682 winners from 2601 = 26.22% SR
P/L: +538.68pts
ROI: +20.71%