Posts

SotD Update, 3rd to 8th August 2020

A decent enough week last week with two winners and two placers giving us a 2.33pts profit and had Garsman managed to hang on for the win on Friday, I'd have been happily writing about making 8.83pts, but it wasn't to be and once again we got a timely reminder of how fine the margins can be in this fine sport.

Aside from picking winners, which is always nice, SotD did what SotD always sets out to do and that's to find a selection that will give you a run for your money at a better price than it will eventually run at and with one horse sent off at the odds I quoted with the other five being well backed, we did at least tick that box this week.

In fact, our average quoted price was just shy of 9/2 about runners sent off at an average of just under 3/1 and if you can back horses at 150%+ of SP on a regular basis, you will make profit in the long run which, of course, is the Geegeez plan 😉

Your first 30 days for just £1

Chris

Selections & Results : 03/08/20 to 08/08/20

03/08 : Mountain Peak @ 10/3 BOG WON at 15/8
04/08 : Rebel Leader @ 9/2 BOG 3rd at 9/2
05/08 : Alezan @ 4/1 BOG 8th at 5/2
06/08 : See The Sea @ 3/1 BOG WON at 13/8
07/08 : Garsman @ 11/2 BOG 2nd at 4/1
08/08 : Jeremiah @ 13/2 BOG 8th at 10/3

03/08/20 to 08/08/20 :
2 winning bets from 6 = 33.33% SR
P/L: +2.33pts

August 2020 :
2 winners from 7 = 28.57% SR
P/L: +1.33pts
ROI = +19.00%

2020 to date :
23 winners from 118 = 19.49% SR
P/L: +12.03pts
ROI = +10.19%

Overall:
679 winners from 2583 = 26.29% S.R
P/L: +543.90pts
ROI: +21.05%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is
here.
Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are
now available here.
Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here
The full story from 2017 can be read here.
Whilst the yearly review for 2018 is right here

And here is the overview for 2019

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take the plunge and get involved right now?

Click here for more details.

Stat of the Day, 8th August 2020

Friday's pick was...

1.45 Sandown : Garsman @ 11/2 BOG 2nd at 4/1 (Tracked leader, pushed along over 1f out, ridden to lead inside final furlong, headed post) 

Saturday's pick runs in the...

3.35 Ascot :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Jeremiah @ 13/2 BOG

Your first 30 days for just £1

...in a 12-runner, Class 2, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m4f on Good to Firm ground worth £12,938 to the winner... 

Why?...

As is often the case, the Geegeez racecard contains an absolute stack of supporting evidence...

...which briefly tells us that we've an LTO winner (same class, course, distance, jockey 13 days ago), who is regarded by our ratings to have a good chance and whose jockey has a good record at this track (C1) (and he beat us yesterday by a head). Our trainer is in good recent form (14, 30) and has also been amongst the winners at this venue (C1, C5) and has a good record with both LTO winners and Flat Stayers.

Is there enough there to hang a bet on? At 13/2, probably yes, as the above would suggest a better than 1 in 7 chance, but I do like to offer you something else that isn't already staring you in the face, so let's consider why trainer Charlie Fellowes appears in another of my unimaginatively named microsystems : Late Summer FHC, shall we?

Esssentially it's a group of trainers that I look out for in Flat Handicaps during July to August, from which Charlie Fellowes' runners sent off at 8/1 or shorter are...

He does have some good numbers in the 12/1 to 16/1 range too, but we'll focus on those in the general SotD price bracket today, as a 27% strike rate and a return of over 62p in the pound at Betfair SP is perfect for our needs and of those 100 runners, the following are relevant today...

  • 26/85 (30.6%) for 69.9pts (+82.2%) with horses aged 3-5 yrs old
  • 23/67 (34.3%) for 72pts (+107.4%) over 1m to 1m6f
  • 17/53 (32.1%) for 63pts (+118.8%) at 11-25 dslr
  • 18/52 (34.6%) for 48.5pts (+93.3%) from runners in the frame LTO
  • 12/41 (29.3%) for 16.6pts (+40.4%) in August
  • 11/28 (39.3%) for 28.4pts (+101.4%) with LTO winners
  • 5/14 (35.7%) for 28pts (+200%) at Class 2
  • 7/13 (53.9%) for 42.2pts (+324.4%) in races worth £12-20k
  • 6/13 (46.2%) for 22.2pts (+170.6%) in 4yo+ handicaps
  • 2/7 (28.6%) for 7.3pts (+104.3%) here at Ascot
  • and 2/2 (100%) for 13.5pts (+675%) with Jim Crowley in the saddle

100 bets isn't a massive sample size, but more than adequate and I'm mindful of over diluting the dataset, but from the above, we could make a mental note that 3-5 yr olds placed LTO 11-25 days earlier now racing over 1m-1m6f are 9 from 21 (42.9% SR) for 37.2pts (+177.2% ROI) including 5/11 (45.5% SR) with LTO winners and 3 from 6 (50%) in August...

...pointing to... a 1pt win bet on Jeremiah @ 13/2 BOG as was quite widely available (inc at least three BOGs) at 8.05 am Saturday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 3.35 Ascot

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 7th August 2020

Thursday's pick was...

5.20 Stratford : See The Sea @ 3/1 BOG WON at 13/8 (Led until narrowly headed 4th, pressed leader, in front again 2 out, clear when ridden before last, stayed on well run-in to win by two lengths) 

Friday's pick runs in the...

1.45 Sandown :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Garsman @ 11/2 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 3yo over 5f on Good to Firm ground worth £4,690 to the winner... 

Why?...

As usual, we start with a quick glance at the racecard...

Which tells us that we've a consistent sort ridden by a jockey who fares well at this venue. You can see the last six runs from this 3yr old, but he has run seven times this year, winning his first one, so he's actually 1151222 in 2020. Those three wins include two over this minimum 5f trip and one at today's Class 4 and it's his recent string of runner-up finishes that interests me today, as I do look out the 222's as I call them.

Essentially, it's like this... in UK Class 2-5 contests since the start of 2016, horses with a recent form line of 222 who were beaten by less than 10 lengths LTO 6-45 days earlier (not as complicated as it looks in print) are...

with the following of relevance today...

  • 136/504 (27%) for 97pts (+19.2%) at odds shorter than 12/1
  • 86/394 (21.8%) for 60.2pts (+15.3%) in handicaps
  • 102/377 (27.1%) for 150.7pts (+40%) in fields of 6-12 runners
  • 59/205 (28.8%) for 30.3pts (+14.8%) on the Flat
  • 46/201 (22.9%) for 16.7pts (+8.3%) at Class 4
  • 34/148 (23%) for 24.6pts (+16.6%) over trips of 5-7 furlongs
  • and 26/83 (31.3%) for 26.2pts (+31.6%) on Good to Firm...

...whilst those sent off shorter than 12/1 in 6-12 runner handicaps are 66/256 (25.8% SR) for 80.2pts (+31.3% ROI), including...

  • 33/99 (33.3%) for 64.2pts (+64.8%) on the Flat
  • 18/66 (27.3%) for 41.5pts (+62.9%) over 5-7f
  • and 16/38 (42.1%) for 44.7pts (+117.6%) on good to firm ground...

...which somewhat belatedly explains... a 1pt win bet on Garsman @ 11/2 BOG as was widely available (inc several BOGs ) at 8.00 am Friday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 1.45 Sandown

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 6th August 2020

Wednesday's pick was...

5.35 Lingfield : Alezan @ 4/1 BOG 8th at 5/2 (Led, ridden and headed over 2f out, weakened final furlong) 

Thursday's pick runs in the...

5.20 Stratford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

See The Sea @ 3/1 BOG

Your first 30 days for just £1

...in a 7-runner, Class 3, Mares Handicap Hurdle for 3yo+ over 2m½f on Good ground worth £5,393 to the winner... 

Why?...

As I set my daily reports to generate qualifiers at an A/E of 1.25 or greater and an IV of 1.50 and greater, this runner appeared 6 times in my report this morning, as you can see below...

 

 

 

 

 

 

and to be honest, there's probably enough there to hang a bet on, but rather than just lean heavily on very recent (14/30 day) form, let's take a closer look at trainer Donald McCain's record here at Stratford, shall we?

The above says he has a 14 from 61 (almost 23% SR) record here over the last five years, which is decent enough to retain my interest and spark me to look closer and when I did just that, I found that in hurdles contests since the start of 2016, his runners racing over trips no further than 2m3f were...

...with a win ratio of almost 1 in 3 and an ROI of almost 175% at betfair SP and now that's really interesting/relevant and a far better stat to hang the bet upon. Of those 31 runners...

  • 10/21 (47.6%) for 64.1pts (+305.2%) at 11-45 dslr
  • 10/15 (66.6%) for 70.1pts (+467.3%) in 4-7 runner contests
  • 9/19 (47.4%) for 61.77pts (+325.1%) during June to September
  • 8/17 (47.1%) for 19.89pts (+117%) at odds of 6/1 and shorter
  • 5/20 (25%) for 20.05pts (+100.2%) over this 2m½f C&D
  • 5/12 (41.7%) for 9.54pts (+79.5%) off a mark (OR) of 120 or higher
  • 4/10 (40%) for 8.71pts (+87.1%) with jockey Brian Hughes
  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 28.14pts (+312.6%) at Class 3
  • 3/8 (37.5%) for 22.42pts (+280.2%) with female runners
  • and 2/5 (40%) for 21.8pts (+436%) in female only races

...and the most exciting thing for me from stats perspective is that from the above, those returning from an 11-45 day break to run in a 4-7 runner contest during June to September are 9 from 9 (100% SR) for 71.77pts (+797.5% ROI) profit...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on See The Sea @ 3/1 BOG as was widely available (inc several BOGs and Bet365 were a half point bigger) at 8.15 am Thursday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 5.20 Stratford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 5th August 2020

Tuesday's pick was...

5.30 Southwell : Rebel Leader @ 9/2 BOG 3rd at 9/2 (Led until 4th, chased leader, jumped slowly 7th, left in lead next, pushed along before 3 out, ridden and headed before 3 out, lost 2nd next, weakened soon after) 

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

5.35 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Alezan @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 3yo over 1m on Polytrack worth £2,782 to the winner... 

Why?...

We start with a plethora of supporting evidence from the racecard, pace/draw heatmap and the Geegeez Speed Ratings...

...to which we can add a 3yr old filly who won last time out 14 days ago at this grade, at this trip and under today's jockey, 5lb claimer Georgia Dobie whose last ride (3 days ago) was also a winning one for today's trainer Eve Johnson Houghton, who herself has a good record at this venue of late, standing at...

in handicaps on the A/W at Lingfield since the start of 2017, including of relevance today...

  • 12/46 (26.1%) for 56.35pts (+122.5%) within 120 days of their last run
  • 12/36 (33.3%) for 66.35pts (+184.3%) ran on the A/W LTO
  • 10/34 (29.4%) for 28.39pts (+83.5%) were sent off at 8/1 or shorter
  • 8/38 (21.1%) for 29.18pts (+76.8%) at the same class as LTO
  • 8/30 (26.7%) for 49.16pts (+163.9%) in fields of 10-12 runners
  • 8/27 (29.6%) for 32.92pts (+121.9%) over this 1m C&D
  • 7/33 (21.2%) for 24.19pts (+73.3%) at the same trip as LTO
  • 4/20 (20%) for 4.08pts (+20.4%) at Class 6
  • 4/15 (26.7%) for 9.08pts (+60.6%) off a mark (OR) of 56-65
  • and 4/7 (57.1%) for 8.4pts (+120%) from LTO winners...

...and whilst trying not to dilute the sample size too much to make it more chance than relevance, you could combine the top three stats above, as those sent off at 8/1 or shorter within 4 months of a run of the A/W LTO are 10 from 24 (41.7% SR) for 38.4pts (+160% ROI), a nice little trainer/course angle to file away and also includes the following at play today...

  • 7/16 (43.75%) for 30.3pts (+189.2%) at the same class as LTO
  • 7/11 (63.6%) for 29.9pts (+271.5%) over this 1m C&D
  • 6/18 (33.3%) for 20.1pts (+111.9%) at the same trip as LTO
  • 5/13 (38.5%) for 18.09pts (+145%) at the same class & trip as LTO
  • 5/9 (55.6%) for 23pts (+255.8%) over this 1m C&D at the same class as LTO
  • 5/8 (62.5%) for 23.3pts (+291.8%) at the same 1m trip as LTO
  • with 4/7 (57.1%) for 18.1pts (+257.9%) over this 1m C&D at the same class & trip as LTO...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Alezan @ 4/1 BOG as was widely available (inc several BOGs) at 8.05 am Wednesday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 5.35 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 4th August 2020

Monday's pick was...

3.15 Haydock : Mountain Peak @ 10/3 BOG WON at 15/8 (Chased leaders near side of group, went 2nd inside final furlong, drifted left and ran on to lead towards finish) 

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

5.30 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Rebel Leader @ 9/2 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 4 Novices' Handicap Chase over 2m4f on Good ground worth £3,964 to the winner... 

Why?...

Harry Whittington is a trainer on the up and, since he started, he's used Southwell as a proving ground for his abilities. As can be seen, Whittington enjoys an enviable 28% record at the Rolleston venue in the last five years, netting a +50.1 point profit (strong A/E and IV figures also).

We can also see that Gavin Sheehan has become a 'go to' guy, the pair combining to win better than 46% of the time (6-from-13) for +43.42.

Whittington is perfectly capable of getting one ready off a layoff, scoring with 14 of 77 such runners in the last two years for a small SP profit.

The horse has already shown ability and was cruising along in mid-division when coming down on his handicap debut last time. This is essentially his handicap debut again - if you see what I mean - and Harry has a strong 19.61% strike rate (10 wins from 51) with handicap debutants.

As an aside, I wasn't a fan (at the price) of the favourite - who wins infrequently and scored around quirky Cartmel last time; and Thibault was beaten as heavy second favourite even after the 11/10 fav came down at the first last time. He might appreciate the longer trip but has looked a weak finisher thus far...

...which all leads to... a 1pt win bet on Rebel Leader @ 9/2 BOG as was available (inc at least a couple BOGs, whilst a couple of firms were slightly bigger) at 8.15 am Tuesday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 5.30 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. Please note I'll be home from Greece late Monday/early Tuesday, Matt will cover for me for Tuesday and we'll revert to more normal timings from Wednesday.

Stat of the Day, 3rd August 2020

Saturday's pick was...

8.45 Hamilton : Antico Lady @ 4/1 BOG 10th at 11/4 (Tracked leader after 1f, ridden and unable to quicken 2f out, weakened final furlong) 

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.15 Haydock :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Mountain Peak @ 10/3 BOG

Your first 30 days for just £1

...in a 7-runner, Class 2 Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 5f on Good ground worth £9,704 to the winner... 

Why?...

As is often the case, the racecard provides a way in for us...

From left to right, 2-3124 suggests a consistent type, CD shows a previous win over course and distance, trainer Ed Walker has a good 1 year and 5 year record at this venue (C1 C5), as does jockey William Buick (also C1 C5) and he's also been riding well of late (14 30), whilst the horse's Geegeez Speed Rating of 95 is the highest in this field today.

Mountain Peak has already won 7 of his 26 starts to date with a impressive 26.9%  strike rate yielding 19..5pts profit at an ROI of 75.2% if you'd backed every time he has run. Of those 26 starts, the following angles of interest are at play today...

  • 7/18 (38.9%) for 27.55pts (+153.1%) at odds of 8/1 or shorter
  • 7/16 (43.75%) for 29.55pts (+184.7%) within 3 weeks of his last run
  • 5/19 (26.3%) for 8.7pts (+45.8%) on a straight run
  • 4/12 (33.3%) for 10.7pts (+89.1%) over a 5f trip
  • 2/2 (100%) for 5.48pts (+274%) here at Haydock, both over course and distance...

...whilst over a straight 5f at 8/1 or shorter within 3 weeks of his last run, he is 4 from 8 (50% SR) for 14.7pts (+183.7% ROI), including 2 from 2 over C&D.

Jockey William Buick's good 30-day (27/111 = 24.3%) and 14-day (13/56 = 23.2%) are highlighted on the racecard, but over the last seven days, he is actually 10 from 29 (34.5% SR), so he's bang in form and also has a record of 11 wins from 46 (23.9% SR) for 2.53pts (+5.5% ROI) here at Haydock since the start of the 2017 season, although none of those rides were for today's trainer, Ed Walker...

...whose own record in handicaps here at Haydock over the same period stands at 16 from 52 (30.8% SR) for 55.9pts (+107.5% ROI) including the following of relevance today...

  • 15/43 (34.9%) for 59.33pts (+138%) in races worth less than £10,000
  • 14/38 (36.8%) for 59.08pts (+155.5%) in fields of 5-11 runners
  • 12/30 (40%) for 37.84pts (+126.1%) at 1-25 dslr
  • 7/22 (31.8%) for 19.74pts (+89.7%) with those rated (OR) 80-95
  • and 4/8 (50%) for 10.43pts (+130.4%) over this 5f C&D...

...whilst those racing in fields of 5-11 runners for less than £10k within 25 days of their last run are 10 from 21 (47.6% SR) for 35.34pts (+168.3% SR) including one of today's pick's C&D successes back in July 2018...

...which all leads to... a 1pt win bet on Mountain Peak @ 10/3 BOG as was widely available (inc at least a couple BOGs, whilst a couple of firms were slightly bigger) at 6.30am Monday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 3.15 Haydock

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. Please note I'll be home from Greece late Monday/early Tuesday, Matt will cover for me for Tuesday and we'll revert to more normal timings from Wednesday.

Stat of the Day, 3rd August 2020

Saturday's pick was...

8.45 Hamilton : Antico Lady @ 4/1 BOG 10th at 11/4 (Tracked leader after 1f, ridden and unable to quicken 2f out, weakened final furlong) 

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.15 Haydock :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Mountain Peak @ 10/3 BOG

Your first 30 days for just £1

...in a 7-runner, Class 2 Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 5f on Good ground worth £9,704 to the winner... 

Why?...

As is often the case, the racecard provides a way in for us...

From left to right, 2-3124 suggests a consistent type, CD shows a previous win over course and distance, trainer Ed Walker has a good 1 year and 5 year record at this venue (C1 C5), as does jockey William Buick (also C1 C5) and he's also been riding well of late (14 30), whilst the horse's Geegeez Speed Rating of 95 is the highest in this field today.

Mountain Peak has already won 7 of his 26 starts to date with a impressive 26.9%  strike rate yielding 19..5pts profit at an ROI of 75.2% if you'd backed every time he has run. Of those 26 starts, the following angles of interest are at play today...

  • 7/18 (38.9%) for 27.55pts (+153.1%) at odds of 8/1 or shorter
  • 7/16 (43.75%) for 29.55pts (+184.7%) within 3 weeks of his last run
  • 5/19 (26.3%) for 8.7pts (+45.8%) on a straight run
  • 4/12 (33.3%) for 10.7pts (+89.1%) over a 5f trip
  • 2/2 (100%) for 5.48pts (+274%) here at Haydock, both over course and distance...

...whilst over a straight 5f at 8/1 or shorter within 3 weeks of his last run, he is 4 from 8 (50% SR) for 14.7pts (+183.7% ROI), including 2 from 2 over C&D.

Jockey William Buick's good 30-day (27/111 = 24.3%) and 14-day (13/56 = 23.2%) are highlighted on the racecard, but over the last seven days, he is actually 10 from 29 (34.5% SR), so he's bang in form and also has a record of 11 wins from 46 (23.9% SR) for 2.53pts (+5.5% ROI) here at Haydock since the start of the 2017 season, although none of those rides were for today's trainer, Ed Walker...

...whose own record in handicaps here at Haydock over the same period stands at 16 from 52 (30.8% SR) for 55.9pts (+107.5% ROI) including the following of relevance today...

  • 15/43 (34.9%) for 59.33pts (+138%) in races worth less than £10,000
  • 14/38 (36.8%) for 59.08pts (+155.5%) in fields of 5-11 runners
  • 12/30 (40%) for 37.84pts (+126.1%) at 1-25 dslr
  • 7/22 (31.8%) for 19.74pts (+89.7%) with those rated (OR) 80-95
  • and 4/8 (50%) for 10.43pts (+130.4%) over this 5f C&D...

...whilst those racing in fields of 5-11 runners for less than £10k within 25 days of their last run are 10 from 21 (47.6% SR) for 35.34pts (+168.3% SR) including one of today's pick's C&D successes back in July 2018...

...which all leads to... a 1pt win bet on Mountain Peak @ 10/3 BOG as was widely available (inc at least a couple BOGs, whilst a couple of firms were slightly bigger) at 6.30am Monday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 3.15 Haydock

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. Please note I'll be home from Greece late Monday/early Tuesday, Matt will cover for me for Tuesday and we'll revert to more normal timings from Wednesday.

SotD Update, 27th July to 1st August 2020

It's all getting a bit Groundhog Day, I'm afraid as for a fourth week in a row, I can only muster one winner. Thankfully, we got paid out at 5/1, meaning we wiped our faces over week, but the lack of a profit meant an overall loss of 2.3pts for the month.

I did say last week that we'd need two winners and so it proved. If I'm honest, I'm not too disheartened as a small loss in what proved to be a difficult month, as post-lockdown, the numbers still look healthy.

Please note I left for Greece last Monday lunchtime to look at some hotels for my travel agency business and get some R&R, so whilst I'll still be posting each day (except 04/08 when cover has been arranged), the timings may well be different to normal.

Chris

Selections & Results : 27/07/20 to 01/08/20

27/07 : Stay Smart @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 2/1
28/07 : Mr Wagyu @ 3/1 BOG WON at 5/1
29/07 : Sardinia Sunset @ 9/2 BOG 6th at 4/1
30/07 : Electric Ladyland @ 9/2 BOG 4th at 11/2
31/07 : Single @ 9/2 BOG 2nd at 11/4
01/08 : Antico Lady @ 4/1 BOG 10th at 11/4

27/07/20 to 01/08/20 :
1 winning bet from 6 = 16.66% SR
P/L: +0.00pts

July 2020 :
4 winners from 24 = 16.66% SR
P/L: -2.30pts
ROI = -9.58%

August 2020 :
0 winners from 1 = 0.00% SR
P/L: -1.00pts
ROI = -100.00%

2020 to date :
21 winners from 112 = 18.75% SR
P/L: +9.70pts
ROI = +8.66%

Overall:
677 winners from 2577 = 26.27% S.R
P/L: +541.57pts
ROI: +21.02%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is
here.
Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are
now available here.
Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here
The full story from 2017 can be read here.
Whilst the yearly review for 2018 is right here

And here is the overview for 2019

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take the plunge and get involved right now?

Click here for more details.

Stat of the Day, 1st August 2020

Friday's pick was...

2.55 Pontefract : Single @ 9/2 BOG 2nd at 11/4 (Towards rear, headway from over 2f out, stayed on to go 2nd towards finish, no threat to winner) 

Saturday's pick runs in the...

8.45 Hamilton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Antico Lady @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 14-runner, Class 5 Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m½f on Good to Soft ground worth £3,493 to the winner... 

Why?...

Starting from the racecard...

...we see a 4 yr old filly who won last time out (over class, course and distance on good to soft under today's jockey) 20 days ago. She has top billing on our speed ratings and hails from a yard with a good record at this track (C5), as does her jockey, Paul Mulrennan (C1 C5), so let's look at all three, starting with...

...the horse, a 4 yr old filly who has 3 wins and 2 places from 6 efforts at odds shorter than 5/1, she's 2 from 2 at this trip and also 2 from 2 in fields bigger than 12 runners.

Next, our jockey, Paul Mulrennan who is 17 from 96 (17.7% SR) for 40pts (+41.6% ROI) here at Hamilton since the start of the 2017 season and has ridden 7 winners from 46 (15.2% SR) for 15.6pts (+33.8% ROI) this year alone for...

...today's trainer, Michael Dods who has a good record here with runners to deemed to "have a chance". Basically, since the start of 2015, his horses sent off at odds of 7/4 to 17/2 (an odds range where most of my personal betting takes place) at Hamilton are 14 from 56 (25% SR) for 29.3pts (+52.3% ROI), including the following of relevance today...

  • 13/39 (33.3%) for 38.64pts (+99.1%) during July to September
  • 12/40 (30%) for 38pts (+95.1%) over 6f to 1m4f
  • 11/40 (27.5%) for 22.6pts (+56.6%) in handicaps
  • 9/20 (45%) for 33.1pts (+165.5%) at 11-20 dslr
  • 8/25 (32%) for 28.3pts (+113.2%) in races worth less than £4,000
  • 5/19 (26.3%) for 5.7pts (+29.9%) with Paul Mulrennan in the saddle
  • 5/16 (31.25%) for 16pts (+100%) on Good to Soft
  • and 4/9 (44.4%) for 21.3pts (+236.4%) with 4 yr olds...

...whilst handicappers running during July to September over 6f-1m4f at 11-20 dslr are 6 from 9 (66.6% SR) for 22.8pts (+253.3% ROI), including Antico Lady's run/win last time out.

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Antico Lady @ 4/1 BOG as was widely available (inc at least a couple BOGs, whilst a couple of firms were slightly bigger) at 5.40am Saturday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 8.45 Hamilton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. Please note I left for Greece on Monday 20/07 for two weeks to look at some hotels for my travel agency business and to get some R&R, so whilst I'll still be posting each day (except 04/08 when cover has been arranged), the timings may well be different to normal.

Stat of the Day, 31st July 2020

Thursday's pick was...

1.10 Goodwood : Electric Ladyland @ 9/2 BOG 4th at 11/2 (Took keen hold, tracked leaders, ridden over 1f out, faded inside final furlong) 

Friday's pick runs in the...

2.55 Pontefract :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Single @ 9/2 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 3 Flat Maiden Handicap for 3yo+ over 2m1f on Good to Firm ground worth £3,493 to the winner... 

Why?...

We start with the racecard...

As trainer Mick Channon has the C1 and C5 icons by his name and is highlighted in the Trainer Stats report and also one of my own saved angles, it makes sense to focus on his record at this venue for today's piece.

Obviously his runner here yet to win a race, but the 3 yr old filly has made the frame in five of her eight starts today and comes here to race in what I'll hopefully show are favourable conditions...

...as Mick Channon's runners here at Ponty are 17 from 72 (23.6% SR) for 72.22pts (+100.3% ROI) profit since the start of the 2015 season, including the following of relevance today...

  • 17/59 (28.8%) for 85.22pts (+144.5%) at 6-60 dslr
  • 15/52 (28.9%) for 84.35pts (+162.2%) in races worth £0-8k
  • 15/51 (29.4%) for 86.45pts (+169.5%) with 2/3 yr olds
  • 11/32 (34.4%) for 89.45pts (+279.5%) in 10-14 runner contests
  • 10/40 (25%) for 41.21pts (+103%) with female runners
  • 10/37 (27%) for 65.9pts (+178.1%) in handicaps
  • 10/32 (31.25%) for 64.17pts (+200.6%) with maiden horses
  • 9/30 (30%) for 76.69pts (+255.6%) at Class 5
  • 6/24 (25%) for 37.56pts (+156.5%) on Good to Firm
  • 6/16 (37.5%) for 9.9pts (+61.9%) when sent off in the 2/1 to 5/1 odds range
  • 4/16 (25%) for 16.31pts (+101.9%) in maiden races

...whilst his 2/3 yr olds running 10-14 runner contests worth £0-8k after 6-60 days rest are 10 from 18 (55.6% SR) for 100.13pts (+556.3% ROI) profit, including 7 from 13 (53.1%) with maidens, 5 from 7 (71.4%) with females and 3 from 4 (75% with female maidens...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Single @ 9/2 BOG as was widely available (inc at least a couple BOGs, whilst Bet365 were a standout 11/2 BOG!) at 5.50am Friday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 2.55 Pontefract

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. Please note I left for Greece on Monday 20/07 for two weeks to look at some hotels for my travel agency business and to get some R&R, so whilst I'll still be posting each day (except 04/08 when cover has been arranged), the timings may well be different to normal.

Stat of the Day, 30th July 2020

Wednesday's pick was...

2.45 Goodwood : Sardinia Sunset @ 9/2 BOG 6th at 4/1 (Took keen hold, tracked leaders, ridden over 1f out, faded inside final furlong) 

Thursday's pick runs in the...

1.10 Goodwood :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Electric Ladyland @ 9/2 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 3 Flat handicap for 3yo over 5f on Good ground worth £9,452 to the winner...

Why?...

Another crack at landing a Glorious Goodwood winner, but not quite at the same level as yesterday's contest, but every race has a winner so let's see what the racecard tells us at first glance......

So, briefly from above, a yard in form with a reasonable enough record at this track from a small number of runners and the yard also does well in sprints and also with LTO winners.

The horse looks like one of the speedier ones, according to the SR figures and whilst Hollie Doyle has no form icons by her name on the card, there's no doubting her talent and she tends to ride the Archie Watson horses well as I'll hope to highlight shortly.

But first, the horse herself, a 3 yr old filly, who has three wins and three places from her last seven starts and a good overall return of 5 wins from 14 so far, including of relevance today...

  • 5/12 at 5f, 5/8 at odds below 9/1 and 4/6 at Class 3-5 (but also has won at C2)
  • 2/5 in cheekpieces, 2/2 under Hollie Doyle's steering and 1/2 here at Goodwood
  • 1/2 on good ground and 1/2 over course and distance (also at Class 3)

And now, I'll finish off with a quick look at the afore-mentioned record of trainer & jockey together. In the context of this race, I'd tend to focus on the Watson / Doyle combination in Class 3-4 handicaps with runners sent off at 8/1 and shorter and doing so gives me 18 winners from 49 (36.7% SR) for 36pts profit at an ROI on 73.4%, including at play today...

  • 15/37 (40.5%) for 36.83pts (+99.6%) during the 6 months from May to October
  • 10/21 (47.6%) for 25.41pts (+121%) at 21-45 days since last run
  • 8/17 (47.1%) for 22.36pts (+131.5%) during May-Oct at 21-45dslr (*this looks like an MO)
  • 5/16 (31.25%) for 15.64pts (+9.7%) from female runners
  • 5/14 (35.7%) for 8.15pts (+58.2%) from LTO winners (better than the yard's overall LTO winners) 
  • 4/15 (26.7%) for 9.43pts (+62.9%) at Class 3
  • and 1/1 here at Goodwood from this horse's 6/1 win three starts ago

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Electric Ladyland @ 9/2 BOG as was widely available (inc at least a couple BOGs, whilst Bet365 were a standout 11/2 BOG!) at 6.20am Wednesday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 1.10 Goodwood

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. Please note I left for Greece on Monday 20/07 for two weeks to look at some hotels for my travel agency business and to get some R&R, so whilst I'll still be posting each day (except 04/08 when cover has been arranged), the timings may well be different to normal.

Stat of the Day, 29th July 2020

Tuesday's pick was...

2.00 Ayr : Mr Wagyu @ 3/1 BOG WON at 5/1 (Made virtually all, ridden inside final furlong, ran on well to win by 2.25 lengths) 

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

2.45 Goodwood :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Sardinia Sunset @ 9/2 BOG

...in the 10-runner, Group 3, Molecomb Stakes for 2yo over 5f on Good ground worth £22,684 to the winner...

Why?...

A rare foray into Class 1 racing for me/SotD today and as usual, the Geegeez racecard offers some obvious pointers...

...ie in-form trainer, jockey with a decent (albeit from a small sample size) record at the venue and an LTO winner who heads the Geegeez Speed ratings. I'd hope all of the above is pretty self-explanatory by now and is all covered in the excellent user guide that (a) you can find in your "My Geegeez" area and (b) we recommend you all read.

I'm also not going to go down the route of a big-race preview as others here on the Geegeez team are better placed to do that and I'd wager they already have 😉 (I don't read any previews until I've done my own thing!)

So, what can I tell you that you might not know, but could be of use framing today's selection?

How about Roger Varian's female LTO winners sent off at 2/1 and bigger on the Flat? Yes Chris, tell me about them! Well, since 2014, they are 23 from 132 (17.4% SR) for 105.98pts (+80.3% ROI) profit, including of relevance today...

  • 19/94 (20.2%) for 107.5pts (+114.4%) at 11-60 days since last run
  • 18/90 (20%) for 75.54pts (+83.9%) in 7-12 runner contests
  • 14/76 (18.4%) for 83.64pts (+110.1%) in non-handicaps
  • 12/69 (17.4%) for 78.11pts (+113.2%) at Class 1
  • 11/42 (26.2%) for 100.56pts (+239.4%) in races worth 21-40k
  • 8/23 (34.8%) for 86.98pts (+378.2%) at Group 3
  • 6/27 (22.2%) for 42.04pts (+155.7%) with 2 yr olds
  • 3/10 (30%) for 9.27pts (+92.7%) in July
  • and 2/4 (50%) for 8.1pts (+202.5%) here at Goodwood...

...whilst those racing in 7-12 runner, Class 1 non-handicaps worth £21-40k after a break of 16-60 days are 5 from 10 (50% SR) for 55.53pts (+555.3% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Sardinia Sunset @ 9/2 BOG as was widely available (inc at least a couple BOGs) at 5.45am Wednesday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 2.45 Goodwood

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. Please note I left for Greece on Monday 20/07 for two weeks to look at some hotels for my travel agency business and to get some R&R, so whilst I'll still be posting each day (except 04/08 when cover has been arranged), the timings may well be different to normal.

Stat of the Day, 28th July 2020

Monday's pick was...

12.35 Redcar : Stay Smart @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 2/1 (Held up towards rear, headway over 1f out, went 3rd inside final furlong, kept on, no chance with winner) 

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

2.00 Ayr:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Mr Wagyu @ 4/1 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 6 Flat handicap for 3yo+ over 6f on Soft ground worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

As is often the case, we start with the racecard...

...which shows that today's jockey is riding well (30) at present (2 from 3 in the past week) and today rides for a yard with a decent record at this track of late (C1). In fact, the runners from JJ Quinn's yard to look out for at Ayr are those sent off at 2/1 or bigger, running at Class 5 or 6 over 6f and further, as these runners are 8 from 44 (18.2% SR) for 32.97pts (+74.9% ROI), including...

  • 8/33 (24.2%) for 43.97pts (+133.2%) in fields of 8-13 runners
  • 7/32 (21.9%) for 30.2pts (+94.4%) with male runners
  • 5/27 (18.5%) for 27.5pts (+101.8%) at class 6
  • and 5/18 (27.8%) for 47.48pts (+263.8%) from those who last ran 11-25 earlier...

...whilst males who ran 11-35 days earlier and now run in an 8-13 runner Class 6 contest are 5 from 9 (55.6% SR) for 45.5pts (+505.5% ROI)...

So, an in-form jockey riding in the type of contest the yard excels in, but what about the horse himself? Well, Mr Wagyu is 7 from 16 (43.75% SR) for 23.63pts (+147.7% ROI) when sent off shorter than 9/1 on a straight 6f strip after just 6-25 days rest.

Of relevance today from those 16 races, all on the Flat, he is...

  • 7/13 (53.8%) for 26.63pts (+204.8%) in fields of 6-11 runners
  • 7/12 (58.3%) for 27.63pts (+230.2%) in June/July
  • 7/11 (63.6%) for 28.63pts (+260.3%) when in the frame LTO
  • 6/12 (50%) for 22.03pts (+183.6%) at Class 4 or lower
  • 4/8 (50%) for 5.04pts (+63%) more than 100 miles from home
  • and 4/5 (80%) for 17.45pts (+349%) after finishing 3rd LTO...

...whilst in 6-11 runner contests at Class 4 or lower during June/July after being placed LTO, he is 6 from 8 (75% SR) for 26.03pts (+325.3% ROI), including 4/4 travelling more than 100 miles from the yard, 4/4 after finishing 3rd LTO and 3/3 when sent over 100 miles away after a third place finish...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Mr Wagyu @ 4/1 BOG as was widely available (at least 3 BOGs) at 6.45am Monday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 2.00 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. Please note I left for Greece on Monday 20/07 for two weeks to look at some hotels for my travel agency business and to get some R&R, so whilst I'll still be posting each day (except 04/08 when cover has been arranged), the timings may well be different to normal.

Stat of the Day, 27th July 2020

Saturday's pick was...

2.15 Newmarket : Indie Angel @ 9/4 3rd at 5/2 (Steadied start, in touch in rear, wide and headway over 2f out, ridden over 1f out, stayed on to go 3rd towards finish) 

Monday's pick runs in the...

12.35 Redcar :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Stay Smart @ 3/1 BOG

Your first 30 days for just £1

...in a 9-runner, Class 5 Flat Nursery handicap for 2yo over 5f on Good to Firm ground worth £3,493 to the winner...

Why?...

As usual, we start with the racecard...

So, an in-form jockey, an in-form trainer/jockey combo, both jockey and trainer have done well here at this venue in the past and they team up again on a horse that looks to have been well drawn.

All the above is pretty self-explanatory, so I'll use my time this morning to look closer at trainer David O'Meara's record at this track, because my shorthand code in my notebook says..."D'OM/Red/C4-6H/2-4y/9.0m"

It's the not the most secretive of codes, but then again nobody else ever really sees my notes, but what it means is that I keep an eye out for David O'Meara's 2-4 yr old, Class 4-6 handicappers sent off at 8/1 and shorter at Redcar, because since the start of the 2017 season, they are...

...including of note/relevance today...

  • 13/33 (39.4%) for 39.81pts (+120.6%) in fields of 8-12 runners
  • 12/31 (38.7%) for 31.15pts (+100.5%) from male runners
  • 9/30 (30%) for 14.11pts (+47%) from those who raced in the previous 25 days
  • 8/26 (30.8%) for 15.89pts (+61.1%) with Danny Tudhope in the saddle
  • 8/21 (38.1%) for 24.72pts (+117.7%) during June to August
  • 7/22 (31.8%) for 18.57pts (+84.4%) in races worth less than £4,000 to the winner
  • and 5/12 (41.7%) for 17.32pts (+144.3%) at Class 5...

...whilst returning to the Trainer/Jockey stats on the racecard, Messrs O'Meara and Tudhope are 6 from 14 (43.9% SR) for 12.39pts (+88.5% ROI) with males in 8-12 runners contests, including three winners and a runner-up from their last five efforts...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Stay Smart @ 3/1 BOG as was widely available at 6.30am Monday, but as always please check your BOG status (*most are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 12.35 Redcar

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. Please note I left for Greece on Monday 20/07 for two weeks to look at some hotels for my travel agency business and to get some R&R, so whilst I'll still be posting each day (except 04/08 when cover has been arranged), the timings may well be different to normal.