Posts

Stat of the Day, 27th July 2020

Saturday's pick was...

2.15 Newmarket : Indie Angel @ 9/4 3rd at 5/2 (Steadied start, in touch in rear, wide and headway over 2f out, ridden over 1f out, stayed on to go 3rd towards finish) 

Monday's pick runs in the...

12.35 Redcar :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Stay Smart @ 3/1 BOG

Your first 30 days for just £1

...in a 9-runner, Class 5 Flat Nursery handicap for 2yo over 5f on Good to Firm ground worth £3,493 to the winner...

Why?...

As usual, we start with the racecard...

So, an in-form jockey, an in-form trainer/jockey combo, both jockey and trainer have done well here at this venue in the past and they team up again on a horse that looks to have been well drawn.

All the above is pretty self-explanatory, so I'll use my time this morning to look closer at trainer David O'Meara's record at this track, because my shorthand code in my notebook says..."D'OM/Red/C4-6H/2-4y/9.0m"

It's the not the most secretive of codes, but then again nobody else ever really sees my notes, but what it means is that I keep an eye out for David O'Meara's 2-4 yr old, Class 4-6 handicappers sent off at 8/1 and shorter at Redcar, because since the start of the 2017 season, they are...

...including of note/relevance today...

  • 13/33 (39.4%) for 39.81pts (+120.6%) in fields of 8-12 runners
  • 12/31 (38.7%) for 31.15pts (+100.5%) from male runners
  • 9/30 (30%) for 14.11pts (+47%) from those who raced in the previous 25 days
  • 8/26 (30.8%) for 15.89pts (+61.1%) with Danny Tudhope in the saddle
  • 8/21 (38.1%) for 24.72pts (+117.7%) during June to August
  • 7/22 (31.8%) for 18.57pts (+84.4%) in races worth less than £4,000 to the winner
  • and 5/12 (41.7%) for 17.32pts (+144.3%) at Class 5...

...whilst returning to the Trainer/Jockey stats on the racecard, Messrs O'Meara and Tudhope are 6 from 14 (43.9% SR) for 12.39pts (+88.5% ROI) with males in 8-12 runners contests, including three winners and a runner-up from their last five efforts...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Stay Smart @ 3/1 BOG as was widely available at 6.30am Monday, but as always please check your BOG status (*most are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 12.35 Redcar

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. Please note I left for Greece on Monday 20/07 for two weeks to look at some hotels for my travel agency business and to get some R&R, so whilst I'll still be posting each day (except 04/08 when cover has been arranged), the timings may well be different to normal.

SotD Update, 20th to 25th July 2020

For the third week in a row, I can only muster one winner, but at 7/1 allied to two non-runners, it meant a nice 4pt profit from the four that actually ran, which is a decent enough return.

It means that whilst we're still in the red for July, we're now within striking distance of clearing a profit for the month, but I'm going to need at least 2 winners from the next 5 picks for that to happen. It's not impossible, of course and I'll certainly be having a crack at it.

Please note I left for Greece last Monday lunchtime to look at some hotels for my travel agency business and get some R&R, so whilst I'll still be posting each day (except 04/08 when cover has been arranged), the timings may well be different to normal.

Chris

Selections & Results : 20/07/20 to 25/07/20

20/07 : Lady De Vega @ 5/1 BOG NR at 13/8
21/07 : Daheer @ 10/3 BOG 5th at 9/4
22/07 : Dashing Roger @ 7/1 BOG WON at 6/1
23/07 : Squelch @ 7/2 BOG non-runner
24/07 : Global Exceed @ 7/2 BOG 5th at 3/1
25/07 : Indie Angel @ 9/4 3rd at 5/2

20/07/20 to 25/07/20 :
1 winning bet from 4 = 25.00% SR
P/L: +4.00pts

July 2020 :
3 winners from 19 = 15.79% SR
P/L: -3.30pts
ROI = -17.36%

2020 to date :
20 winners from 106 = 18.87% SR
P/L: +9.70pts
ROI = +9.15%

Overall:
676 winners from 2571 = 26.29% S.R
P/L: +541.57pts
ROI: +21.06%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is
here.
Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are
now available here.
Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here
The full story from 2017 can be read here.
Whilst the yearly review for 2018 is right here

And here is the overview for 2019

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take the plunge and get involved right now?

Click here for more details.

Stat of the Day, 25th July 2020

Friday's pick was...

3.00 Beverley : Global Exceed @ 7/2 BOG 5th at 3/1 (Slowly into stride, held up in rear, headway on wide outside chasing leaders 2f out, soon every chance, weakened towards finish) 

Saturday's pick runs in the...

2.15 Newmarket :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Indie Angel @ 9/4

Your first 30 days for just £1

...in an 8-runner, Class 3 Fillies Flat handicap for 3yo+ over 7f on Good to Firm ground worth £9,962 to the winner...

Why?...

Early post tonight, as I'm out on a trip first thing tomorrow, but as usual, the unique Geegeez interactive racecard contains more supporting evidence/data than you could throw a stick at and it's all pretty self-explanatory.

In addition to that weight of evidence pointing towards a decent run for our money, we have an LTO winner dropping in class after an impressive victory over course and distance a fortnight ago.

All in all, there's enough above to hang a bet on, but SotD wouldn't be SotD if I didn't try to highlight an angle that might be unfamiliar to at least a few of you, so let's look at...

...trainer John Gosden's contribution to my "Late Summer Flat Hcps" microsystem. The name tells you exactly what I'm looking for and Mr G is one of a number of trainers of interest in what is usually the later part of the season. For the Gosden horses, I look at those running in Flat handicaps during July to September since 2016 and this gives me a starting point of...

...pretty solid numbers from blindly backing them, but they include of interest here...

  • 47/188 (25%) for 12.24pts (+6.5%) with 3 yr olds
  • 39/146 (26.7%) for 31.4pts (+21.5%) in races worth less than £13k
  • 34/130 (26.2%) for 55.17pts (+42.4%) in 3yo+ contests
  • 21/69 (30.4%) for 30pts (+43.5%) at Class 3
  • 17/68 (25%) for 7.16pts (+10.5%) with females
  • 17/58 (29.3%) for 42.41pts (+73.1%) from class droppers
  • and 8/21 (38.1%) for 20.69pts (+98.5%) for today's jockey Nicky Mackay...

...whilst 3 yr olds in Class 3 3yo+ contests worth less than £13k are 14 from 36 (38.9% SR) for 16.9pts (+47% ROI), including 6 winners from 9 dropping down 1 class...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Indie Angel @ 9/4 as was widely available at 9.35pm Friday, but as always please check your BOG status (*most are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 2.15 Newmarket

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. Please note I left for Greece on Monday 20/07 for two weeks to look at some hotels for my travel agency business and to get some R&R, so whilst I'll still be posting each day (except 04/08 when cover has been arranged), the timings may well be different.

Stat of the Day, 24th July 2020

Thursday's pick was...

5.35 Pontefract : Squelch @ 7/2 BOG non-runner 

Friday's pick runs in the...

3.00 Beverley :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Global Exceed @ 11/4 BOG

Your first 30 days for just £1

...in a 10-runner, Class 6 Flat handicap for 3yo+ over 1m2f on Good to Firm ground worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

We're guided by the racecard today, as is often the case...

...an in-form trainer and jockey who both do well at this track and bring a horse top-rated on the speed ratings to run today.

The 14, 30, C1 and C5 are the base of our bet today, so let's take a closer look...

Over the last 30 days, trainer Karen Tutty's runners are 3/11 (27.3% SR) for 44.29pts (+402.6% ROI) with jockey Gemma's record over the same period standing at 3 from 10 (30%) for 45.29pts (+452.9%), all for trainer Karen.

Over the last fortnight, they are 2 from 6 (33.3% SR) for 11.24pts (+187.3% ROI).

More longer-term ie since 2015, Trainer Karen has had 16 winners from 92 (17.4% SR) for 55.16pts (+60% ROI) here at Beverley, which are excellent figures and contain the following baker's dozen snippets of relevance today...

    • 16/81 (19.8%) for 66.16pts (+81.7%) over trips of 7.5f and beyond
    • 16/70 (22.9%) for 77.16pts (+110.2%) with a jockey claiming 3 or 5 lbs
    • 15/73 (20.6%) for 69.01pts (+94.5%) with male runners
    • 13/80 (16.3%) for 50.19pts (+62.7%) in handicaps
    • 13/70 (18.6%) for 58.03pts (+82.9%) with runners unplaced last time out
    • 13/63 (20.6%) for 70.64pts (+112.1%) in 9-13 runner contests
    • 13/66 (19.7%) for 69.05pts (+104.6%) with horses rested for less than 3 weeks
    • 12/69 (17.4%) for 39.5pts (+57.3%) for Gemma Tutty
    • 12/49 (24.5%) for 58.81pts (+120%) on Good to Firm
    • 11/53 (20.75%) for 49.68pts (+93.7%) in 3yo+ races
    • 11/27 (40.7%) for 37.34pts (+138.3%) at odds ranging from 2/1 to 7/1
    • 8/33 (24.2%) for 22.41pts (+67.9%) in July
    • and 7/43 (16.3%) for 12.62pts (+29.4%) at class 6.

And there are more angles I could quote, but neither of us have all day to type/read them! However if you wanted to combine some of the above...

...then males with less than 3 weeks rest after an unplaced run LTO sent back out to be ridden by a 3/5lb claimer in a 9-13 runner handicap over 7.5 furlongs or further are 10 from 26 (38.5% SR) for 84.8pts (+326.7% ROI), from which Gemma has ridden 6 winners from 22 for 50.18pts profit...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Global Exceed @ 11/4 BOG as was widely available at 7.45am Friday, but as always please check your BOG status (*most are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 3.00 Beverley

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. Please note I left for Greece on Monday 20/07 for two weeks to look at some hotels for my travel agency business and to get some R&R, so whilst I'll still be posting each day (except 04/08 when cover has been arranged), the timings may well be different.

Stat of the Day, 23rd July 2020

Wednesday's pick was...

4.50 Yarmouth : Dashing Roger @ 7/1 BOG WON at 6/1 (Chased leaders, went 2nd over 3f out, led 2f out, hard pressed final furlong, edged slightly left, held on well )

Thursday's pick runs in the...

5.35 Pontefract :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Squelch @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 4 Flat handicap for 3yo+ over 1m4f on Good to Firm ground worth £4,690 to the winner...

Why?...

From the racecard, we see...

...a horse in good nick (seeks hat-trick today) hailing from an in-form yard and with a decent enough draw for her usual running style. Those of you using the cards regularly will already know the above, so I won't dwell on that.

This 4 yr old filly was a winner at this trip on similarly good to firm last out, so we know she gets the distance and going and her win two starts ago was at this grade, so that's hopefully another boxed ticked.

Her trainer Rae Guest seems to do well at getting horses to clock up back to back wins, as Squelch did in June and since the start of 2017, his sub-10/1 handicappers who were LTO winners have gone on to win 15 of 48 (31.25% SR) for 23.3pts (+48.5% ROI), including...

  • 13/42 (31%) for 19.8pts (+47.2%) with female runners
  • 13/41 (31.7%) for 25.79pts (+62.9%) with 3/4 yr olds
  • 13/34 (38.2%) for 26.87pts (+79%) with those last seen 1-25 days earlier
  • 8/26 (30.8%) for 9.42pts (+36.2%) on the Flat
  • 8/25 (32%) for 10.42pts (+41.7%) during May to August
  • 4/12 (33.33%) for 1.54pts (+12.8%) at Class 4
  • and 2/5 (40%) for 12.28pts (+245.6%) for today's jockey, Martin Harley...

...whilst 3-4 yr old females at 1-25 dslr are 10 from 25 (40% SR) for 25.81pts (+103.25% ROI), including 4 winners from 6 since the resumption of racing last month...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Squelch @ 7/2 BOG as was widely available at 7.30am Thursday with bigger offered in places, but as always please check your BOG status (*most are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 5.35 Pontefract

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. Please note I left for Greece on Monday lunchtime (20/07) for two weeks to look at some hotels for my travel agency business and get some R&R, so whilst I'll still be posting each day (except 04/08 when cover has been arranged), the timings may well be different.

Stat of the Day, 22nd July 2020

Tuesday's pick was...

3.45 Chepstow : Daheer @ 10/3 BOG 5th at 9/4 (Stayed in centre early, prominent when edged across to join field after 2f, ridden 3f out, weakened final furlong)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

4.50 Yarmouth :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Dashing Roger @ 7/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 5 Flat handicap for 3yo over 1m on Good to Firm ground worth £3,493 to the winner...

Why?...

Starting as usual with the UK's most informative racecard...

As you can see, this horse was of immediate interest, because his trainer William Stone is one of a number of trainers I look out for in Class 5 handicaps. In fact, since the start of last season, both Class 5 & 6 contests have proved to be very rewarding for Mr Stone's followers, as shown below...

...with the average win price suggesting that today's long-ish odds shouldn't put you off taking a punt here.

A quick look at the 12 from 40 record shows...

  • 11/32 (34.4%) for 80.24pts (+250.8%) during April to July inclusive
  • 11/26 (42.3%) for 86.43pts (+332.4%) in fields of 7-11 runners
  • 10/29 (34.5%) for 85.41pts (+294.5%) at odds ranging from 7/2 to 20/1
  • 10/26 (38.5%) for 81.44pts (+313.2%) over trips of 6f to 1m2f
  • 7/20 (35%) for 27.47pts (+137.4%) on good to firm ground
  • 6/19 (31.6%) for 50.95pts (+268.2%) with LTO placers
  • 6/13 (46.2%) for 51.96pts (+399.7%) at class 5
  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 47.95pts (+532.8%) here at Yarmouth
  • and 2/7 (28.6%) for 8.68pts (+124%) for today's jockey Marco Ghiani...

...whilst those sent off at 7/2 to 20/1 in 7-11 runners contests over 6f to 1m2f during April to July are 7 from 11 (63.6% SR) for some 84.45pts (+767.8% ROI) with the four beaten runners including two runners-up, a third and a fourth place, whilst those 11 runners have a 2 from 2 record here at Yarmouth...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Dashing Roger @ 7/1 BOG as was widely available at 7.40am Wednesday with bet365 BOG, buts always please check your BOG status (*most are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 4.50 Yarmouth

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. Please note I left for Greece on Monday lunchtime (20/07) for two weeks to look at some hotels for my travel agency business and get some R&R, so whilst I'll still be posting each day (except 04/08 when cover has been arranged), the timings may well be different.

Stat of the Day, 21st July 2020

Monday's pick was...

8.30 Windsor : Lady De Vega @ 5/1 BOG NR (13/8 (55p R4) when withdrawn at the start)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

3.45 Chepstow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Daheer @ 4/1 BOG (10/3 for record-keeping purposes as price disappeared within 5 minutes of publication at a non-standard time. 10/3 was available more generally and for longer)

Your first 30 days for just £1

...in a 8-runner, Class 5 Flat handicap for 3yo over 1m on Good ground worth £3,493 to the winner...

Why?...

Matt here, stepping in for the day and an evening posting as well (apologies if that catches you unawares).

We start with the race card snippet...

As can be seen, Owen Burrows is deadly with his handicap debutants. Never worse than a 26% hit rate over the last five years, he's a staggering 7-from-14 in the last twelve months. Those runners have gone off at prices, too, as demonstrated by a profit of +25.63 and an A/E of 2.56 (IV is a stratospheric - and totally unsustainable - 4.84).

Burrows also makes my 'Hot Cap Trainers' Query Tool Angle, and is generally a top class handler. Here are his form and two-year contextual stats:

Overall in the last two years, Burrows had a better than 20% win rate - which of course still means that nearly 80% of his runners lost! - and in the context of this race, a handicap over a middle distance on turf, he has bombproof numbers.

If you want a form pointer, too, the horse is having only its third start and, while Burrows does well enough off a layoff, Daheer is entitled to step forward from that first run since last year and since a wind op (W2 today, often worth a small uplift).

Throw in Jim Crowley's form, both at the track and when riding for Burrows, and there's a lot to like statistically about this fellow.

He's easily the least exposed runner in the field...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Daheer @ 4/1 BOG as was available at 7.00pm Monday with bet365 BOG, and as always please check your BOG status (*most are not BOG until the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 8.30 Windsor

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. Please note Chris was off to Greece on Monday lunchtime (20/07) for two weeks to look at some hotels for my travel agency business and get some R&R, so whilst I'll still be posting each day (except 21/07 & 04/08 when cover has been arranged), the timings may well be different.

Stat of the Day, 20th July 2020

Saturday's pick was...

4.20 Haydock : Zlatan @ 11/2 BOG 4th at 11/2 (Chased leaders, not much room over 2f out, soon switched left, ridden over 1f out, beaten 4th final furlong, one pace)

Monday's pick runs in the...

8.30 Windsor :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Lady De Vega @ 5/1 BOG

Your first 30 days for just £1

...in an 11-runner, Class 6, Flat handicap for 3yo over 1m3½f on Good to Firm ground worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

We start with the race card snippet...

A winner on her turf/handicap/class debut LTO 25 days ago, winning relatively comfortably despite a stumble at the start and having to switch outside late on after being boxed in. She'll come on for the experience, as will her rider who was on board for the first time that day.

I don't often hang an SotD selection on a jockey, but I've got it in my head that this Italian apprentice, Stefano Cherchi, could turn out to be something a bit special. He's in great form right now, as seen above, but this is no purple patch, he has been profitable to follow for some while now. In fact, if you go back to the start of April 2019, his record stands at...

...excellent numbers that translate well into today's type of contest, as they include...

  • 21/131 (16%) for 159.11pts (+121.5%) at class 5 or below
  • 21/103 (20.4%) for 60.96pts (+59.2%) at 12/1 or shorter
  • 19/111 (17.1%) for 164.72pts (+148.4%) in races worth less than £4k
  • 15/101 (14.9%) for 158.14pts (+156.6%) for trainer Marco Botti (this is the key for me)
  • 14/77 (18.2%) for 167.23pts (+217.2%) on runners last seen 6-25 days earlier
  • 13/80 (16.25%) for 156.7pts (+195.9%) with 3 yr olds
  • 12/40 (30%) for 191.19pts (+478%) over trips of 1m2f to 1m4f
  • 9/45 (20%) for 27.98pts (+62.2%) on the Flat
  • 6/21 (28.6%) for 25.16pts (+119.8%) on Good to Firm ground
  • and 4/15 (26.7%) for 9.05pts (+60.3%) on LTO winners

I said earlier that trainer Marco Botti was key to Stefano Cherchi's successful start to his career here in the UK and with Marco providing around 65% of the jockey's winners/runners, we should look at their partnership a little closer, using some of the details I've already logged...

...ie Botti + Cherchi + Class 5-7 + 12/1 max SP + £0-4k prize money = 11/44 (25% SR) for 40.09pts (+91.1% ROI), including...

  • 8/32 (25%) for 38.43pts (+120.1%) with 3 yr olds
  • 7/24 (29.2%) for 32.7pts (+136.3%) within 25 days of their last run
  • and 7/16 (43.75%) for 44.74pts (+279.6%) over 1m2f to 1m4f...

...whilst Botti + Cherchi + Class 5-7 + 12/1 max SP + £0-4k prize money + 3yr olds + 1-25 dslr + 1m2f to 1m4f = 4/10 (40% SR) for 29.36pts (+293.6% ROI)...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Lady De Vega @ 5/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.00am Monday with bigger offered in places, but as always please check your BOG status (*some go BOG later)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 8.30 Windsor

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. Please note I'm off to Greece on Monday lunchtime (20/07) for two weeks to look at some hotels for my travel agency business and get some R&R, so whilst I'll still be posting each day (except 21/07 & 04/08 when cover has been arranged), the timings may well be different.

Stat of the Day, 20th July 2020

Saturday's pick was...

4.20 Haydock : Zlatan @ 11/2 BOG 4th at 11/2 (Chased leaders, not much room over 2f out, soon switched left, ridden over 1f out, beaten 4th final furlong, one pace)

Monday's pick runs in the...

8.30 Windsor :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Lady De Vega @ 5/1 BOG

Your first 30 days for just £1

...in an 11-runner, Class 6, Flat handicap for 3yo over 1m3½f on Good to Firm ground worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

We start with the race card snippet...

A winner on her turf/handicap/class debut LTO 25 days ago, winning relatively comfortably despite a stumble at the start and having to switch outside late on after being boxed in. She'll come on for the experience, as will her rider who was on board for the first time that day.

I don't often hang an SotD selection on a jockey, but I've got it in my head that this Italian apprentice, Stefano Cherchi, could turn out to be something a bit special. He's in great form right now, as seen above, but this is no purple patch, he has been profitable to follow for some while now. In fact, if you go back to the start of April 2019, his record stands at...

...excellent numbers that translate well into today's type of contest, as they include...

  • 21/131 (16%) for 159.11pts (+121.5%) at class 5 or below
  • 21/103 (20.4%) for 60.96pts (+59.2%) at 12/1 or shorter
  • 19/111 (17.1%) for 164.72pts (+148.4%) in races worth less than £4k
  • 15/101 (14.9%) for 158.14pts (+156.6%) for trainer Marco Botti (this is the key for me)
  • 14/77 (18.2%) for 167.23pts (+217.2%) on runners last seen 6-25 days earlier
  • 13/80 (16.25%) for 156.7pts (+195.9%) with 3 yr olds
  • 12/40 (30%) for 191.19pts (+478%) over trips of 1m2f to 1m4f
  • 9/45 (20%) for 27.98pts (+62.2%) on the Flat
  • 6/21 (28.6%) for 25.16pts (+119.8%) on Good to Firm ground
  • and 4/15 (26.7%) for 9.05pts (+60.3%) on LTO winners

I said earlier that trainer Marco Botti was key to Stefano Cherchi's successful start to his career here in the UK and with Marco providing around 65% of the jockey's winners/runners, we should look at their partnership a little closer, using some of the details I've already logged...

...ie Botti + Cherchi + Class 5-7 + 12/1 max SP + £0-4k prize money = 11/44 (25% SR) for 40.09pts (+91.1% ROI), including...

  • 8/32 (25%) for 38.43pts (+120.1%) with 3 yr olds
  • 7/24 (29.2%) for 32.7pts (+136.3%) within 25 days of their last run
  • and 7/16 (43.75%) for 44.74pts (+279.6%) over 1m2f to 1m4f...

...whilst Botti + Cherchi + Class 5-7 + 12/1 max SP + £0-4k prize money + 3yr olds + 1-25 dslr + 1m2f to 1m4f = 4/10 (40% SR) for 29.36pts (+293.6% ROI)...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Lady De Vega @ 5/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.00am Monday with bigger offered in places, but as always please check your BOG status (*some go BOG later)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 8.30 Windsor

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. Please note I'm off to Greece on Monday lunchtime (20/07) for two weeks to look at some hotels for my travel agency business and get some R&R, so whilst I'll still be posting each day (except 21/07 & 04/08 when cover has been arranged), the timings may well be different.

SotD Update, 13th to 18th July 2020

As with the previous week, it was one winner from six and a small loss on the week meaning we're behind schedule for July. results/performances seemed to get better as the week went on, but July is proving a far tougher nut to crack than June was.

We're probably 2 w or 3 winners shy of where we would like to be, but that said, the numbers post-lockdown still look more than respectable, I just need to get back amongst the winners again.

Next pick will go live shortly after 8.00am Monday, but please note I'm off to Greece on Monday lunchtime to look at some hotels for my travel agency business and get some R&R, so whilst I'll still be posting each day (except 21/07 & 04/08 when cover has been arranged), the timings may well be different.

Chris

Selections & Results : 13/07/20 to 18/07/20

13/07 : Dodgy Bob @ 11/4 BOG 6th at 16/5
14/07 : Cappananty Con @ 4/1 BOG 9th at 10/3
15/07 : Emirates Knight @ 4/1 BOG 4th at 3/1
16/07 : Somewhere Secret @ 5/2 BOG 3rd at 11/4
17/07 : Treacherous @ 3/1 BOG WON at 16/5
18/07 : Zlatan @ 11/2 BOG 4th at 11/2

13/07/20 to 18/07/20 :
1 winning bet from 6 = 16.66% SR
P/L: -1.80pts

July 2020 :
2 winners from 15 = 13.33% SR
P/L: -7.30pts
ROI = -48.66%

2020 to date :
19 winners from 102 = 18.63% SR
P/L: +5.70pts
ROI = +5.59%

Overall:
675 winners from 2567 = 26.30% S.R
P/L: +537.57pts
ROI: +20.94%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is
here.
Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are
now available here.
Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here
The full story from 2017 can be read here.
Whilst the yearly review for 2018 is right here

And here is the overview for 2019

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take the plunge and get involved right now?

Click here for more details.

Stat of the Day, 18th July 2020

Friday's pick was...

5.25 Haydock : Treacherous @ 3/1 BOG WON at 16/5 (Keen behind leaders, took closer order travelling well 2f out, ridden and led just over 1f out, kept on well)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

4.20 Haydock :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Who?

Zlatan @ 11/2 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 5, Flat handicap for 4yo+ over 1m2½f on Good to Soft ground worth £3,493 to the winner...

Why?...

We start with the racecard and we see a 7 yr old gelding coming off the back of two good runs and hailing from an in-form yard (we had a Haydock winner with Ed de Giles yesterday too).

I spoke about the trainer's form yesterday, so having had just the one (winning) runner yesterday, there's no need to go back over it, the numbers speak for themselves.

Zlatan was only beaten by a length staying on over 1m2f last time out on ground that was possibly a little too quick for him eleven days ago. The extra yardage and the cut in the ground here might just be enough for him to go one better this afternoon and his trainer does like to send horses back out fairly after a decent effort.

In fact, since the start of 2016, Ed de Giles' handicappers sent back out within a fortnight of a top three finish LTO are 30 from 82 (36.6% SR) for 47.93pts (+58.5% ROI) at odds of 7/1 or shorter, including...

  • 22/58 (37.9%) for 30.19pts (+52.1%) in races worth less than £4k
  • 15/33 (45.5%) for 23.28pts (+70.5%) with LTO runners-up
  • and 12/34 (35.3%) for 13.46pts (+39.6%) at Class 5

...whilst LTO runners-up competing for less than £4k are 13 from 25 (52% ROI) for 25.1pts (+100.4% ROI), all at Class 5 or worse including 5 from 14 at this grade...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Zlatan @ 11/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.10am Saturday, but as always please check your BOG status (*some go BOG later)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 4.20 Haydock

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 17th July 2020

Thursday's pick was...

1.00 Hamilton : Somewhere Secret @ 5/2 BOG 3rd at 11/4 (Overall leader centre, ridden and headed approaching final furlong, soon edged left, kept on one pace)

Friday's pick runs in the...

5.25 Haydock :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Treacherous @ 3/1 BOG

Your first 30 days for just £1

...in a 9-runner, Class 4, Flat handicap for 4yo+ over 6f on Good to Soft ground worth £4,690 to the winner...

Why?...

An initial glance at the racecard shows a horse that has been running well and now drops two classes after finishing fourth 20 days ago. We also see immediately that Ed de Giles has his string in decent nick with 3 runners and 3 placers from 14 in the past month.

The bottom of the card tells you how our Speed Ratings rank the runners, as this is a good pointer over shorter trips.

And then we take a look at the pace/draw heatmap and for this type of contest, he's probably been drawn as well as he could be for his normal style of running...

...whilst Instant Expert (I usually start with place form over the last 2yrs, but feel free to use your own parameters) shows a line of green, suggesting we should at least be there or thereabouts today...

All of which is possibly enough to warrant a bet, but I'll wrap up with a closer look at the horse's suitability for the task ahead, starting with a look at his overall record in handicaps to date...

...which includes of relevance today...

  • 8/17 (47.1%) for 24.84pts (+146.1%) at 1-25 days since last run
  • 7/14 (50%) for 20.21pts (+144.3%) over 6 furlongs
  • 7/13 (53.9%) for 19.03pts (+146.4%) at 5/1 or shorter
  • 6/13 (46.1%) for 13.94pts (+107.2%) off a mark (OR) of 75-89
  • and 4/9 (44.4%) for 16.74pts (+186%) at Class 4

...whilst running over a 6f trip off a mark of 75-89 at 5/1 or shorter within 25 days of his last run, he is 5 from 6 (83.3% SR) for 11.13pts (+185.5% ROI), with a 2 from 3 record at Class 4 and a runner-up finish in his sole defeat...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Treacherous @ 3/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.05am Friday although Bet365 were half a point bigger, but as always please check your BOG status (*some go BOG later)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 5.25 Haydock

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 16th July 2020

Wednesday's pick was...

6.45 Kempton : Emirates Knight @ 4/1 BOG 4th at 3/1 (Led 1f, tracked leaders, ridden to lead again over 1f out, headed entering final furlong, kept on one pace)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

1.00 Hamilton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Your first 30 days for just £1

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Somewhere Secret @ 5/2 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 6, Flat handicap for 3yo+ over 5f on Good ground worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

This 6 yr old gelding is running here off a mark 3lbs lower than his last winning effort and races 2lb lower than he would be next week, having run really well in defeat LTO when second (beaten by half a length) at Ayr with the re-opposing Lydiate Lady and Northern Society more than three lengths further behind just ten days ago.

The fact he runs again so quickly after that good run is what flagged him up to me last night, as trainer Michael Mullineaux's Flat handicappers turned back out less than three weeks after a top 3 finish LTO are 13 from 66 (19.7% SR) for 80.65pts (+122.2% ROI) since the start of the 2015 campaign and these include of relevance today...

  • 13/59 (22%) for 87.65pts (+148.6%) during June to September
  • 10/48 (20.8%) for 74.3pts (+154.8%) in races worth less than £4k
  • 10/42 (23.8%) for 46.74pts (+111.3%) at the same class as LTO
  • 8/36 (22.2%) for 37.18pts (+103.3%) at Class 6
  • 7/32 (21.9%) for 54.81pts (+171.3%) in 6-9 runner contests
  • 5/22 (22.7%) for 48.99pts (+222.7%) on good ground
  • and 3 from 9 (33.3%) for 20.58pts (+228.7%) for today's runner, Somewhere Secret...

...whilst Class 6 runners competing for less than £4k during June-September at the same class as LTO are 6 from 23 (26.1% SR) for 24.62pts (+107% ROI), including 3 from 9 (33.3%) for 5.92pts (+65.8%) since the start of last season...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Somewhere Secret @ 5/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.15am Thursday with some 11/4 non-BOG until later in places, but as always please check your BOG status (*some go BOG later)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 1.00 Hamilton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 15th July 2020

Tuesday's pick was...

1.05 Bath : Cappananty Con @ 4/1 BOG 9th at 10/3 (Close up, pushed along halfway, not much room and lost place 2f out)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

6.45 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Emirates Knight @ 4/1 BOG

Your first 30 days for just £1

...in a 14-runner, Class 3, A/W handicap for 3yo+ over 1m4f on Polytrack worth £6,728 to the winner...

Why?...

The racecard tells us that this 4 yr old was a runner-up LTO 24 days ago (beaten by just a neck over C&D by an in-form rival completing a hat-trick, despite our boy not having raced for 215 days) and that he was flagged up on my Query Tool report because his trainer (Roger Varian) is one of the ones I keep an eye out for on the A/W here at Kempton...

Based on his last two runs, which were both at this venue (4th over 1m3f at C2 and 2nd over C&D at C3 LTO), the Geegeez Pace/Draw heat map also offers encouragement...

..as do the figures on the Geegeez Speed ratings...

Now, let's add a little bit of flesh to the bare bones above. Why follow Roger Varian at Kempton and do we back all of his runners here? Well, as you'd expect, the answer to the second part is no and being selective answers the first question!

The runners I'm interested are simply Roger Varian's Kempton handicappers sent off at 10/1 or shorter. He will get unfancied winners, but playing at long odds often means a long wait between drinks and I'm not a patient man. Imposing a simple odds cut-off has yielded the following result since the start of 2016...

from which...

  • 19/68 (27.9%) for 21.23pts (+31.2%) in races worth less than £8,000 to the winner
  • 18/54 (33.3%) for 35.96pts (+66.6%) after a break of 11-45 days
  • 17/54 (31.5%) for 25.47pts (+47.2%) with male runners
  • 12/32 (37.5%) for 29.41pts (+91.9%) during June to August
  • 7/9 (77.8%) for 23.12pts (+256.9%) from LTO runners-up
  • and 5/10 (50%) for 5.48pts (+54.8%) from top weighted runners

...whilst males competing for less than £8k during June to September after a break of 11-45 days are 11 from 21 (52.4% SR) for 36.99pts (+176.1% ROI) and also applies to Roger's runner Motamayiz in the 7.45 race and of that 11/21 stat, top weights are 2 from 2 as are those who finished as runners-up last time out...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Emirates Knight @ 4/1 BOG as was offered by Bet365, BetVictor* & Hills* at 8.10am Wednesday, but as always please check your BOG status (*some go BOG later)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 6.45 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 14th July 2020

Monday's pick was...

12.40 Ayr : Dodgy Bob @ 11/4 BOG 6th at 16/5 (Went right start, led, headed over 1f out, weakened towards finish)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

1.05 Bath :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Cappananty Con @ 4/1 BOG

Your first 30 days for just £1

...in a 13-runner, Class 6, Flat handicap for 3yo+ over f on Good to Firm ground worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

As is generally the case, the pointers are on the racecard...

A winner last time out (pretty comfortably too, over 5f at this track 12 days ago), from a yard with a good record at this venue as denoted by C1 and C5, which is put into numbers by the Trainers Course 5 year report. The bottom line is my own saved Query Tool angle, highlighting a handful of trainers to keep an eye on here at Bath.

So, why Michael Attwater at Bath?

Well, since the start of 2017, his overall record is fairly nondescript at...

...but in handicap contests here at Bath over the same period, his runners are...

...and although it's not a huge sample size, there are too many winners/runners for it to be a coincidence when 14% of his winners are coming from 3.4% of his runners. And it's even more striking when you look closer at those 31 runners because they are...

  • 9/28 (32.1%) for 17.42pts (+62.2%) from male runners
  • 9/28 921.1%) for 17.42pts (+62.2%) over 5/5½f
  • 9/24 (37.5%) for 21.42pts (+89.3%) aged 3-6 yrs old
  • 9/23 (39.1%) for 22.42pts (+97.5%) during June to September
  • 8/26 (30.8%) for 16.77pts (+64.5%) within 25 days of their last run
  • 8/13 (61.5%) for 18.32pts (+140.9%) sent off at 6/4 to 4/1
  • and 4/5 (80%) for 8.46pts (+169.2%) from LTO winners...

...whilst 3-6 yr old males sent off at 2/1 to 4/1 over 5/5½f during June to September within 25 days of their last run are...

...with the two defeated horses finishing as runners-up and LTO winners winning 3 from 3 for 7.81pts (+260.3% ROI) profit, including Cappananty Con's win here LTO 12 days ago...

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Cappananty Con @ 4/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.05am Tuesday, but as always please check your BOG statusTo see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 1.05 Bath

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!