Posts

Stat of the Day, 13th July 2020

Saturday's pick was...

4.50 Newcastle : Canagat @ 5/2 BOG WON at 6/4 (Quickly away and keen, always close up, led over 3f out, clear lead over 2f out, driven and stayed on well) A welcome winner, that the Geegeez Pace/Draw heat map had spot on!

Monday's pick runs in the...

12.40 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Dodgy Bob @ 11/4 or 3/1 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 6, Flat handicap for 3yo over 6f on Good ground worth £2,782 to the winner... 

Why?...

Starting with the racecard...

A horse in decent form, placed LTO a week ago and is trained at an in-form yard as highlighted by the 30 icon and the subsequent Trainer Stats report.

What the above doesn't tell you, is what I'll focus on now...

And of that 11/58 record, the following is of relevance today...

  • 10/43 (23.3%) for 59.87pts (+139.2%) during June-September
  • 9/46 (19.6%) for 52.97pts (+115.1%) from male runners
  • 8/36 (22.2%) for 33.68pts (+93.6%) on the Flat
  • 7/29 (24.1%) for 22.12pts (+73.6%) at Class 6
  • 7/23 (30.4%) for 13.41pts (+58.3%) at 6/1 and shorter
  • 6/21 (28.6%) for 28.96pts (+137.9%) over 6f
  • 6/20 (30%) for 58pts (+290%) from those placed 3rd LTO
  • and 4/13 (30.8%) for 14.51pts (+111.6%) with Phil Dennis in the saddle...

...whilst Class 6 males are 4 from 13 (30.8% SR) for 27.21pts (+209.34% ROI) on the Flat during June to September, including two wins from four for today's pick, Dodgy Bob...

...guiding us towards...a 1pt win bet on Dodgy Bob @ 11/4 or 3/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.15am Monday, but as always please check your BOG statusTo see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 12.40 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 13th July 2020

Saturday's pick was...

4.50 Newcastle : Canagat @ 5/2 BOG WON at 6/4 (Quickly away and keen, always close up, led over 3f out, clear lead over 2f out, driven and stayed on well) A welcome winner, that the Geegeez Pace/Draw heat map had spot on!

Monday's pick runs in the...

12.40 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Dodgy Bob @ 11/4 or 3/1 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 6, Flat handicap for 3yo over 6f on Good ground worth £2,782 to the winner... 

Why?...

Starting with the racecard...

A horse in decent form, placed LTO a week ago and is trained at an in-form yard as highlighted by the 30 icon and the subsequent Trainer Stats report.

What the above doesn't tell you, is what I'll focus on now...

And of that 11/58 record, the following is of relevance today...

  • 10/43 (23.3%) for 59.87pts (+139.2%) during June-September
  • 9/46 (19.6%) for 52.97pts (+115.1%) from male runners
  • 8/36 (22.2%) for 33.68pts (+93.6%) on the Flat
  • 7/29 (24.1%) for 22.12pts (+73.6%) at Class 6
  • 7/23 (30.4%) for 13.41pts (+58.3%) at 6/1 and shorter
  • 6/21 (28.6%) for 28.96pts (+137.9%) over 6f
  • 6/20 (30%) for 58pts (+290%) from those placed 3rd LTO
  • and 4/13 (30.8%) for 14.51pts (+111.6%) with Phil Dennis in the saddle...

...whilst Class 6 males are 4 from 13 (30.8% SR) for 27.21pts (+209.34% ROI) on the Flat during June to September, including two wins from four for today's pick, Dodgy Bob...

...guiding us towards...a 1pt win bet on Dodgy Bob @ 11/4 or 3/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.15am Monday, but as always please check your BOG statusTo see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 12.40 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

SotD Update, 6th to 11th July 2020

Five losers to start the week wasn't what we wanted/needed and July continues to be the chalk to June's cheese (I prefer cheese). Betting on racing is always a rollercoaster ride and good runs will allow follow bad ones and vice versa.

That said, Saturday's well fancied winner was a welcome relief as it broke a cycle of 10 losers and although I put him up at 5/2, which is pretty much as low as I'm comfortable with for SotD, he did prove that even at the sharper end of the market, you can get some value as those getting on at 5/2 got 167% of Industry SP, which is why we never back at SP!

So, despite being almost halfway through the month, the running loss for July is manageable and nothing that a couple of winners won't fix, so that's the immediate aim.

Next pick will go live shortly after 8.00am Monday.

Chris

Selections & Results : 06/07/20 to 11/07/20

06/07 : Talking About You @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 4/1
07/07 : Music Therapist @ 5/1 BOG 9th at 9/4
08/07 : Puerto Banus @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 3/1
09/07 : Blairlogie @ 11/4 BOG 7th at 15/8
10/07 : Pink Flamingo @ 3/1 BOG 5th at 7/2
11/07 : Canagat @ 5/2 BOG WON at 6/4

06/07/20 to 11/07/20 :
1 winning bet from 6 = 16.66% SR
P/L: -2.50pts

July 2020 :
1 winner from 9 = 11.11% SR
P/L: -5.50pts
ROI = -61.11%

2020 to date :
18 winners from 96 = 18.75% SR
P/L: +7.50pts
ROI = +7.81%

Overall:
674 winners from 2561 = 26.32% S.R
P/L: +539.37pts
ROI: +21.06%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is
here.
Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are
now available here.
Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here
The full story from 2017 can be read here.
Whilst the yearly review for 2018 is right here

And here is the overview for 2019

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take the plunge and get involved right now?

Click here for more details.

Stat of the Day, 11th July 2020

Friday's pick was...

6.05 Bath : Pink Flamingo @ 3/1 BOG 5th at 7/2 (Held up towards rear, pushed along over 1f out, stayed on final furlong, nearest finish)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

4.50 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Canagat @ 5/2 BOG

Your first 30 days for just £1

...in a 9-runner, Class 4, A/W handicap for 3yo over 1m on Tapeta worth £4,690 to the winner... 

Why?...

According to the racecard, this 3 yr old colt takes a drop in class from his last run 17 days ago and is of immediate interest, because...

He's drawn is stall 4 today and a quick glance at the pace/draw heat map shows...

I don't think any of the above needs explaining (but please do ask if something is unclear, I don't bite), whilst the horse himself has already proved to like an artificial surface...

He has finished 311 on the A/W so far, including one here at Newcastle (also Class 4 with Hollie Doyle on board, but over 7f two starts ago).

And the only thing I'm going to add to all of the evidence above is that of the Trainer/Jockey record of 6 wins from 13 here at Newcastle over the last year, seven of those races were handicaps over trips of 6 to 10 furlongs and the results are astonishing at 1111211 including Canagat winning here on the 2nd June, the same day as Glen Shiel was the only loser in that sequence, although he has won here at Newcastle since (Class 2 under Hollie Doyle!)...

...all of which steered me towards...a 1pt win bet on Canagat @ 5/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.20am Saturday (although a couple of firms were at 11/4), but as always please check your BOG statusTo see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 4.50 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 10th July 2020

Thursday's pick was...

6.30 Chepstow : Blairlogie @ 11/4 BOG 7th at 15/8 (Towards rear, headway over 4f out, ridden over 2f out, weakened over 1f out)

Friday's pick runs in the...

6.05 Bath :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Pink Flamingo @ 3/1 BOG

Your first 30 days for just £1

...in a 12-runner, Class 5, Flat handicap for 4yo+ over 5f on Good ground worth £3,493 to the winner... 

Why?...

A pretty simplistic approach today as suggested by the racecard...

We've got a 4 yr old filly who ran really well in defeat LTO when beaten by a length at a higher grade a fortnight ago at Newmarket. Erissimus Maximus was a further length behind her that day and he has since gone on to win at this grade at Haydock a week ago, whilst Chitra, another 4 yr old filly, who was also behind her has since stepped up to Class 4 and was only beaten by half a length last night.

So, with the form of that race seeming to be working out, getting to go off the same mark dropping down in class is another positive for the selection, but let's now got back to the racecard for our supporting data.

As well as showing her form, age, class movement, days since last run and that unaltered mark (OR) of 75, we also see where I'm getting my numbers from. The C1 & C5 icons are repeated in the Trainer Stats report and my saved QT Angle says that Michael Attwater is one of my trainers to look out for here at Bath, but why?

Well, that 10 from 43 record here over the last five years is solid enough to hang a bet on, when allied to what I've already said the horse. but what interests me of Michael's 10 from 43 here  is that since the start of 2017, his handicappers sent off at odds ranging from 6/4 to 4/1 are...

all of which were over 5/5.5 furlongs and also include...

  • 4 from 6 (66.6%) for 7.73pts (+128.8%) in races worth less than £4k
  • 3 from 4 (75%) for 6.32pts (+158.1%) at Class 5
  • and 2/2 (100%) for 5.54pts (+227%) in June/July

I told you it was a simplistic approach today, but I think there's enough here...

...to support...a 1pt win bet on Pink Flamingo @ 3/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.10am Friday (although a couple of firms were at 7/2!), but as always please check your BOG statusTo see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 6.05 Bath

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 9th July 2020

Wednesday's pick was...

6.40 Newbury : Puerto Banus @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 3/1 (Chased winner 2f, chased leaders, went 2nd again over 2f out, ridden over 1f out, stayed on same pace, no chance with winner)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

6.30 Chepstow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Blairlogie @ 11/4 BOG

Your first 30 days for just £1

...in an 11-runner, Class 6, Flat handicap for 3yo over 7f on Good ground worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

Well, straight to the racecard...

A 3yr old gelding who comes here off the back of two good runs at Leicester already since the restart and was only beaten by an in-form filly (Rosa Gold, who has won comfortably again since) last time out nine days ago with the rest of the field over 4 lengths further back.

This contest looks marginally easier than that contest and takes place on a track where her trainer has a good record. That is documented clearly by the C1 & C5 icons above, the former of which is also shown in the report underneath the card, so lat's take a look at my "Chep Flat" angle in more detail...

The angle is essentially a group of seven trainers that I keep an eye out for here at Chepstow and Mick Channon makes the list, because since the start of 2017 campaign, his handicappers are...

from which those 48 are...

  • 13/45 (28.9%) for 52.91pts (+117.6%) in contests worth less than £4,000 to the winner
  • 12/39 (30.8%) for 38.91pts (+99.8%) at 6-25 days since last run
  • 9/26 (34.6%) for 10.4pts (+40%) at an ISP below 5/1
  • 7/27 (25.9%) for 16.2pts (+60%) as 3 yr olds
  • 7/24 (29.2%) for 41.56pts (+173.2%) at Class 6
  • 6/10 (60%) for 19.48pts (+194.8%) in July
  • 5/19 (26.3%) for 10.12pts (+53.3%) in 3yo contests
  • 4/12 (33.3%) for 10.17pts (+84.8%) over this 7f course and distance
  • and 3/11 (29.3%) for 15.79pts (+143.5%) with a jockey claiming 7lbs

...whilst those sent off shorter than 5/1 aiming for a prize of less than £4k just 6-25 days after they last ran are...

...and they include a winner (Queen of Silca) from the last horse to qualify for that angle, which was just six days ago and was also ridden by today's jockey, George Bass claiming 7lbs...

...but until then, it's...a 1pt win bet on Blairlogie @ 11/4 BOG as was widely available at 8.20am Thursday (although Bet365 were at 7/2!), but as always please check your BOG statusTo see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 6.30 Chepstow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 8th July 2020

Tuesday's pick was...

1.15 Pontefract : Music Therapist @ 5/1 BOG 9th at 9/4 (Prominent, ridden 2f out, looked held when slightly hampered approaching final furlong, soon weakened) Poor effort all told.

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

6.40 Newbury :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Puerto Banus @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 5, Flat handicap for 4yo+ over 1m on Good ground worth £3,493 to the winner...

Your first 30 days for just £1

Why?...

Today's racecard snippets are...

And to fill in some gaps, we've got a 4yr old maiden, whose best effort came last time out, when a runner-up here over course and distance 25 days ago. In his defence, he was coming back from a 163-day layoff and was a little unlucky to have bumped into an in-form favourite that day. I'd expect him to be fitter and sharper today after that outing.

He will be ridden by Richard Kingscote, who has a good (albeit off a small number of rides) record for trainer Ian Williams and he's clear top on the Geegeez Speed ratings.

Stat-wise, we'll look at this a couple of ways, starting with the trainer jockey combo. Four from seventeen in the last year is a good starting point, but digging back a little shows that it's not just a purple patch, as since the start of 2016, the combo have the following record together...

Those numbers aren't too far away from replicating the 12 month ones, so some consistency can be seen and from those 79 runners...

  • Males are 18/70 (25.7%) for 51.27pts (+73.3%)
  • Handicappers are 17/68 (25%) for 36.4pts (+53.5%)
  • Those competing for less than £8k are 15/59 (25.4%) for 37.13pts (+62.9%)
  • Those who raced 6-30 days earlier are 13/44 (29.6%) for 33.9pts (+77.1%)
  • Those running on the Flat are 10/41 (24.4%) for 36.9pts (+90%)
  • Those racing in 4yo+ contests are 10/38 (26.3%) for 24.86pts (+65.4%)
  • Those racing over 6f to 1m are 7/28 (25%) for 32.2pts (+115%)
  • and Class 5 runners are 5/20 (25%) for 18.96pts (+94.8%)

Puerto Banus is Ian Williams' only runner of the day today and whilst some horses prefer to travel with stablemates, I has done very well with "solo travellers". In fact since the start of 2017, when his only runner of the day was a Flat or A/W handicapper, he has the following record...

...including of relevance today...

  • 25/130 (19.2%) for 103.47pts (+79.6%) in races worth less than £8k
  • 25/122 (20.5%) for 102.9pts (+84.3%) at Class 4 to 6
  • 16/85 (18.8%) for 80.08pts (+94.2%) on the Flat
  • 15/64 (23.4%) for 125pts (+195.3%) at 21-60 days since last run
  • 14/74 (18.9%) for 72.42pts (+97.9%) with 3/4 yr olds
  • 9/14 (64.3%) for 41.12pts (+293.7%) with LTO runners-up
  • and 8/34 (23.5%) for 18.46pts (+54.3%) on Good ground...

...whilst 3/4 yr olds in Class 4-6 Flat handicaps worth less than £8k, 21 to 45 days after their last run are...

...and that includes five winners and one runner-up (a 20/1 shot beaten by a length over 1m!) from six runners in the last two years...

...all of which suggests...a 1pt win bet on Puerto Banus @ 11/4 BOG as was widely available at 8.15am Wednesday, but as always please check your BOG statusTo see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 6.40 Newbury

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 7th July 2020

Monday's pick was...

7.15 Windsor : Talking About You @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 4/1 (Held up in touch, headway chasing leaders 3f out, went 2nd over 2f out, led 2f out, ridden and hung badly left over 1f out, headed and no extra close home).

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

1.15 Pontefract :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Music Therapist @ 5/1 BOG

Your first 30 days for just £1

...in an 11-runner, Class 5, Flat handicap for 3yo over 5f on Good to Firm ground worth £3,493 to the winner...

Why?...

An initial glance at the expanded racecard gives us plenty to go at...

... so we've a horse who was a runner-up 8 days ago and now drops in class. He'll be ridden by a jockey, Ben Curtis, who rides this track well (23.9% SR since the start of 2018) and has done well for today's trainer (6 wins from 15 in the past 13 months), whilst our pick is just about top rated on speed figures.

To be honest, there was probably enough there to justify a bet at 5/1 when I initially put the pick up, but what the above doesn't tell you is that when a runner-up last week, Music Therapist's write-up of the result said..."raced keenly, led on rail, ridden and strongly pressed over 1f out, headed just inside final furlong, no extra." So, I'd guess the drop back in trip is also a bonus today.

In addition to the data held within the racecard, it might be of interest to know that since the start of 2018, trainer George Scott's handicappers dropping down a grade are...

...whilst since the start of the 2017 campaign, his Class 5 Flat handicappers sent off at 7/1 or shorter are...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Music Therapist @ 5/1 BOG as was available from Bet365, Coral, Ladbrokes, Sporting Bet & Unibet at 8.20am Tuesday, but as always please check your BOG statusTo see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 1.15 Pontefract

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 6th July 2020

Saturday's pick was...

2.05 Haydock : Cruising @ 13/2 BOG non-runner (unruly at start and refused to enter stalls). Sort of summed our week up succinctly.

Monday's pick runs in the...

7.15 Windsor :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Talking About You @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 5, Claiming Stakes for 3yo over 1m2f on Good to Firm ground worth £3,493 to the winner...

Why?...

Pretty straightforward stuff today as all the statistical information I'm going to give you is actually highlighted or referred to below...

Here we have a 3yr old filly who has failed to make the frame on any of her five previous starts, but wasn't disgraced on handicap debut at Leicester 11 days ago.

14 indicates that jockey Tom Marquand is in good form right now and his fortnightly record of 18 wins from 77 is documented, as is his record over the last year for trainer Mick Channon, so I won't delve into either of those sets of figures today, there's no need.

Mick Channon also has the C1 icon by his name, denoting a decent record at this venue over the last 12 months. Closer inspection tells me that he is 15 from 52 (28.9% SR) for 57.11pts (+109.8%) with runners sent off at Evens to 12/1 here since the start of 2018 and these include of relevance today...

  • 11/33 (33.3%) for 53.07pts (+160.8%) from those unplaced last time out
  • 10/26 (38.5%) for 48.11pts (+185%) at 11-25 days since they last ran
  • 9/30 (30%) for 32.12pts (+107.1%) during June to August
  • 6/10 (60%) for 37.08pts (+370.8%) stepping up 1 class
  • and 3/3 (100%) for 20.89pts (+696.4%) with Tom Marquand in the saddle

...whilst those unplaced LTO 11 to 25 days earlier are 4 from 6 (66.6% SR) for 28.01pts (+466.8% ROI) during July & August, including 2 from 2 stepping up a grade and 1 from 1 for Tom Marquand...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Talking About You @ 4/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.15am Monday, but as always please check your BOG statusTo see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 7.15 Windsor

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 6th July 2020

Saturday's pick was...

2.05 Haydock : Cruising @ 13/2 BOG non-runner (unruly at start and refused to enter stalls). Sort of summed our week up succinctly.

Monday's pick runs in the...

7.15 Windsor :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Talking About You @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 5, Claiming Stakes for 3yo over 1m2f on Good to Firm ground worth £3,493 to the winner...

Why?...

Pretty straightforward stuff today as all the statistical information I'm going to give you is actually highlighted or referred to below...

Here we have a 3yr old filly who has failed to make the frame on any of her five previous starts, but wasn't disgraced on handicap debut at Leicester 11 days ago.

14 indicates that jockey Tom Marquand is in good form right now and his fortnightly record of 18 wins from 77 is documented, as is his record over the last year for trainer Mick Channon, so I won't delve into either of those sets of figures today, there's no need.

Mick Channon also has the C1 icon by his name, denoting a decent record at this venue over the last 12 months. Closer inspection tells me that he is 15 from 52 (28.9% SR) for 57.11pts (+109.8%) with runners sent off at Evens to 12/1 here since the start of 2018 and these include of relevance today...

  • 11/33 (33.3%) for 53.07pts (+160.8%) from those unplaced last time out
  • 10/26 (38.5%) for 48.11pts (+185%) at 11-25 days since they last ran
  • 9/30 (30%) for 32.12pts (+107.1%) during June to August
  • 6/10 (60%) for 37.08pts (+370.8%) stepping up 1 class
  • and 3/3 (100%) for 20.89pts (+696.4%) with Tom Marquand in the saddle

...whilst those unplaced LTO 11 to 25 days earlier are 4 from 6 (66.6% SR) for 28.01pts (+466.8% ROI) during July & August, including 2 from 2 stepping up a grade and 1 from 1 for Tom Marquand...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Talking About You @ 4/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.15am Monday, but as always please check your BOG statusTo see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 7.15 Windsor

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

SotD Update, 29th June to 4th July 2020

Five losers and a runner who wouldn't enter the stalls from six picks doesn't look great, does it? But that was the story of last week and you might be surprised to hear that only my wallet is hurting as a result.

I'm still generally happy with what we got for our money. Unlucky possibly on Monday, going down by a length and then by just a head on Friday. Saturday's runner wouldn't enter the stalls, whereas on Tuesday there were no stalls and from a standing start, we'd lost before we even began in farcicial conditions.

Midweek was poor, with two well beaten runners, but when backing runners at 7/1 and the like, you can go a while between drinks.

So, I'm not too despondent. : June was great and I just need July to start firing and the world will seem a better place.

Next pick will go live shortly after 8.00am Monday.

Chris

Selections & Results : 29/06/20 to 04/07/20

29/06 : Porto Ferro @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 2/1
30/06 : Chetan @ 11/4 BOG 8th at 11/10
01/07 : Chapmanshype @ 5/1 BOG 9th at 7/1
02/07 : Steelriver @ 5/1 BOG 7th at 9/2
03/07 : Comeatchoo @ 5/1 BOG 2nd at 5/1
04/07 : Cruising @ 13/2 BOG non-runner

29/06/20 to 04/07/20 :
0 winning bets from 5 = 0.00% SR
P/L: -5.00pts

June 2020 :
8 winners from 26 = 30.77% SR
P/L: +27.17pts
ROI = +104.50%

July 2020 :
0 winners from 3 = 0.00% SR
P/L: -3.00pts
ROI = -100.00%

2020 to date :
17 winners from 90 = 18.89% SR
P/L: +10.00pts
ROI = +11.11%

Overall:
673 winners from 2556= 26.33% S.R
P/L: +541.87pts
ROI: +21.20%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is
here.
Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are
now available here.
Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here
The full story from 2017 can be read here.
Whilst the yearly review for 2018 is right here

And here is the overview for 2019

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take the plunge and get involved right now?

Click here for more details.

Stat of the Day, 4th July 2020

Friday's pick was...

6.30 Wolverhampton : Comeatchoo @ 5/1 BOG 2nd at 5/1 (Chased leaders, led over 1f out, hung left and pressed inside final furlong, headed close home, beaten by a head). After a rough few days, that was hard to take, but we dust ourselves down and go again.

Saturday's pick runs in the...

2.05 Haydock :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Cruising @ 13/2 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 5, Flat handicap for 3yo over 7f on Soft ground worth £3,493 to the winner...

Your first 30 days for just £1

Why?...

The racecard says...

So, let's see how the above could have a bearing on today's contest...

The speed rating is, as always, self-explanatory, second only to a runner half our price and now on to the three highlighted Report Angles (my settings are always 20%+ wins, A/E of 1.25+ and IV of 1.5+) which are, as you know, a 24-month window on performance.

From the top working down...Jockey 14-day form (14 on the card, too) : Paul Mulrennan is riding really well right now and had 3 winners from 8 yesterday at Hamilton.  And of his 13/56 fortnightly record, all were on grass and he is 8/31 ( 25.8% SR) over 7f or shorter.

Then the Trainer/Jockey Combo... Paul's 6 from 18 over the last 12 months for trainer David Brown actually looks like this in 2020...

including...

  • 5/8 (62.5%) for 15.84pts (+198%) at Class 5
  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 5.35pts (+76.4%) with 3 yr olds
  • and 2/4 (50%) for 2.93pts (73.3%) with LTO winners...

...leading us nicely to the third angle...David Brown's LTO winners, who more long-term ie since the start of 2016 in handicaps of 9 furlongs or shorter are...

from which they have the following relevant records...

  • 13/43 (30.2%) for 35.52pts (+82.6%) from male runners
  • 12/45 (26.7%) for 39.35pts (+87.5%) over 5-7 furlongs
  • 9/33 (27.3%) for 29.57pts (+89.6%) in fields of 8-13 runners
  • 8/27 (29.6%) for 36.8pts (+136.3%) on the Flat
  • and 5/20 (25%) for 7.69pts (+38.5%) at Class 5

...and if you wanted a composite micro based around those categories above ie sex, distance and field size, you could try males over 5-7f in 6-10 runner contests for ...

...including 5/11 (45.5%) on the Flat and 5/9 (55.6%) at Class 5 and 22/3 (66.6% SR) for 14.24pts (+474.6% ROI) in Class 5 contests on the Flat...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Cruising @ 13/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.20am Saturday, but as always please check your BOG statusTo see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 2.05 Haydock

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 3rd July 2020

Thursday's pick was...

7.00 Wolverhampton : Steelriver @ 5/1 BOG 7th at 9/2 (Held up in rear, pushed along over 1f out, never near leaders, beaten by 6 lengths). Tough week so far, but we crack on.

Friday's pick runs in the...

6.30 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Comeatchoo @ 5/1 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 6, A/W  handicap for 3yo over 6f on Tapeta worth £2,782 to the winner...

Your first 30 days for just £1

Why?...

Well, as is generally the case, the racecard is our first port of call...

This suggests that aside from LTO, this horse has tended to be there or thereabouts (he doesn't win enough to be honest) and will be ridden by an excellent jockey with a good record on this track. What the above doesn't say is that his last four races haven't been on Tapeta and that he has made the frame twice in three starts here at Wolverhampton.

He's only ever won one race from 27 efforts so far, making the frame in just four other starts, but has one win and one place from two runs under today's jockey, so let's deal with that JC1 icon first before I look at other supporting data. We're told that Hollie Doyle is 23 from 115 (20% SR) here over the last year and she arrives here today in scintillating form after finishes of 122111 here at this venue yesterday.

Of that 23/115 yearly record here, Hollie has 11 wins from 55 (20% SR) at Class 6 and 10 wins from 38 (26.3% SR) over trips of 5/6 furlongs, suggesting she's a good judge of pace on lower grade races on a surface not all jockeys "get".

A quick look at the Geegeez speed ratings is self-explanatory too...

As, hopefully, is the pace/draw heat map...

And now I want to wrap this up by returning to my earlier suggestion that this horse might run better back at Wolverhampton after recent efforts on turf and there's some evidence that would be the case via his breeding, as offspring of the sire Camacho have fared better returning to the Tapeta after running elsewhere. This is probably better explained pictorially, so my saved micro-system is...

And of that 14/53 record, Camacho's offspring are...

  • 10/32 (31.25%) for 30.4pts (+95%) here at Wolverhampton
  • 7/25 (28%) for 24.27pts (+97.1%) at Class 6
  • 6/22 (27.3%) for 16.6pts (+75.5%) as 3 yr olds
  • 6/16 (37.5%) for 22.6pts (+141.3%) in 3 yr old races
  • 6/13 (46.2%) for 23.46pts (+180.4%) over 6f
  • and 5/12 (41.7%) for 15.05pts (+125.4%) within 10 days of their last run

...whilst in Class 6 handicaps here at Wolverhampton over 5-7 furlongs, they are 5/14 (35.7% SR) for 18.34pts (+131% ROI), including 3 from 7 (42.9%) in 3yo contests and 3/7 (42.9%) at 1-10 dslr...

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Comeatchoo @ 5/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.10am Friday, but as always please check your BOG statusTo see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 6.30 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 2nd July 2020

Wednesday's pick was...

3.10 Southwell : Chapmanshype @ 5/1 BOG 9th at 7/1 (Mid-division, took keen hold, mistake 1st, lost place and not fluent 6th, no impression 2 out).

Thursday's pick runs in the...

7.00 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Steelriver @ 5/1 or 9/2 BOG

Your first 30 days for just £1

...in a 9-runner, Class 6, Claiming Stakes for 4yo+ over 7f on Tapeta worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

As usual, we'll start with the racecard that I've expanded to show my two angles from the parameters I have set in the report suite...

This shows a 10 yr old gelding in prime form having won his last three outings, the latest of which was a Class 4, 6f contest here at Wolverhampton 20 days ago. Most of you know this already, as we backed him for SotD that day too (see here, as much of that piece is still very valid).

He now drops down 2 classes to run in this claimer and I think he should have too much for a group of rivals who look to be (a) out of form, (b) in need of a run or (c) both!

The reports and icons tell us that trainer Michael Herrington has done well at this venue for a number of years (TC5), especially thanks to this horse, jockey and horse/jockey combo, so let's take a quick look at the numbers, starting with the horse...

...whose 7 from 24 here at Wolverhampton includes...

  • 7/15 (46.7%) for 25.54pts (at BFSP, of course) at an ROI of 170.2%
  • 6/9 (66.6%) for 16.9pts (+187.8%) at 5/1 and shorter
  • 5/12 (41.7%) for 19.03pts (+158.6%) in fields of 6-10 runners
  • 3/4 (75%) for 17.88pts (+446.9%) after a win LTO
  • 3/3 (100%) for 17.86pts (+595.3%) with Tom Eaves in the saddle
  • 2/3 (66.6%) for 7.17pts (+239%) at Class 6
  • and 2/3 (66.6%) for 5.67pts (+189%) in claimers

...whilst in fields of 6-10 runners at 5/1 or shorter competing for less than £5k, Steelriver is 4 from 6 (66.6% SR) for 10.4pts (+173.3% ROI) here at Wolverhampton.

Next we turn our attention to the trainer and his recent record at this venue...

...and these include...

  • 16/58 (27.6%) for 50.2pts (+86.6%) at odds of evens to 11/1
  • 14/74 (18.9%) for 48.2pts (+65.1%) over trips of 6 to 8.5 furlongs
  • 10/34 (29.4%) for 44.3pts (+130.3%) at Class 6
  • 8/12 (66.6%) for 54.3pts (+452.1%) with LTO winners
  • and 6/23 (23.1%) for 15.9pts (+69.1%) with Tom Eaves doing the steering

...whilst LTO winners sent off shorter than 7/1 in Class 6 contests are 3 from 4 (75% SR) for 18.9pts (+472.6% ROI)

And finally, back to the trainer/jockey combo, which I've just said was standing at 6 wins from 23 since the start of 2018. Those figures include of relevance today...

  • 3 winners from 10 (30%) for 8.03pts (+80.3%) at Class 6
  • and 3 from 3 (100%) for 21.96pts (+732.1%) on LTO winners

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Steelriver @ 5/1 or 9/2 BOG as was available in several places at 8.05am Thursday, but as always please check your BOG statusTo see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 7.00 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 1st July 2020

Tuesday's pick was...

6.45 Leicester : Chetan @ 11/4 BOG 8th at 11/10 (Reluctant to race and very slowly away, reached rear of mid-division over 5f out, struggling over 2f out ) A disappointing end to an otherwise excellent month. Personally, I felt the decision to race at Leicester yesterday was farcical.

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

3.10 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Chapmanshype @ 5/1 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 2, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m4½f on Good ground worth £8,187 to the winner...

Why?...

Your first 30 days for just £1

As we welcome the return of Jumps racing, I'm hoping to kick July off in style with a 6 yr old gelding whose record in hurdle contests at 2 miles at beyond makes for good reading at 2133111, all under today's jockey Gavin Sheehan, including a comfortable win in this grade when last seen (admittedly 9 months ago). His apparent suitability for today's task is highlighted in the Geegeez Shortlist report...

As ever, green means good, whilst grey means there's little/no data to hand, as he's never raced here at Southwell (although his trainer & jockey have good records here, as I'll show in a moment) and the largest field he has raced in so far is 11 runners. Otherwise from those 7 hurdle efforts I mentioned above, he is...

  • 4 from 7 going left handed
  • 4 from 7 for jockey Gavin Sheehan
  • 4 from 6 in a handicap
  • 4 from 6 wearing a tongue tie
  • 3 from 6 on good ground
  • and 1 from 1 at Class 2

And now for our main source of statistical evidence, the racecard itself, which I've expanded to show you the 2 report angles and the 1 query tool angles that I have for this runner today...

Much of this will be self-explanatory to many of you, so please bear with me as I go through it for those who maybe haven't been with us very long.

So, across the card...we have the horse carrying the 4th most weight, his most recent five runs have been good, he has run  with a tongue tie on more than five occasions (as above), he had a wind op more than five runs ago, has won at this distance (well, 42 yards shorter LTO), he's aged 6 and will carry 10st 13lbs.

He is trained by Jamie Snowden who has a good record here at Southwell denoted by C1 (10+ runs at the track in last 365 days, 20%+ win OR 51%+ place) and C5 (25+ runs at the track in the last five years, 15%+ win), whilst jockey Gavin Sheehan also has the C5 icon.

As for the reports, the first two are pretty obvious, but my own SthlHrd needs a little more explanation, but it's actually aligned to the C5 report and refers to a group of trainers I look out for in handicap hurdles at this venue, Jamie Snowden being just one of a dozen.

Now let's take a brief, but closer look at the above, starting with the jockey...

Gavin Sheehan is 16/58 (27.6% SR) at this venue overall over the last five years and in handicap hurdles over trips shorter than 2m5f since the start of 2015, he is...

A quick look at the sire, Aizavoski, shows 6 from 28 at middle distance range. I've narrowed that down a bit to UK hurdle contests over 2m3f to 2m5f, where his offspring are...

And finally, our trainer, Jamie Snowden, whose record here at Southwell since the start of 2016 in handicap hurdles with horses sent off shorter than 12/1 currently stands at...

and those 10 runs include 3 wins from 7 on Good ground, 3 wins from 6 shorter than 2m5f and 2 wins from 4 for Gavin Sheehan and hopefully I've dissected the card enough...

...to justify...a 1pt win bet on Chapmanshype @ 5/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.10am Wednesday, but as always please check your BOG statusTo see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 3.10 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!