Posts

Double Dutch, 17th October 2015

Double Dutch, 17th October 2015

A nice 17/1 double on Friday as both Maid of Tuscany and Point of Woods did the business for us and with Nebula Storm finishing second at Fakenham, those of you on the forecast landed a 14.5/1 bonus.

And it was almost the perfect DD day, but Bochart was a length adrift of finishing second at Wolverhampton, but two winners (inc our 700th) and two placers is excellent news from our 650th set of selections.

Friday's results were as follows:

Maid of Tuscany : WON at 5/1 (adv 7/2)
Nebula Storm : 2nd at 2/1 (adv 15/8)
The forecast paid £15.52 here
----------------------------------------------------
Point of Woods : WON at 7/4 (adv 2/1)
Bochart : 3rd at 15/2 (adv 6/1)

Results to date:
700 winning selections from 2506 = 27.93%
223 winning bets in 650 days = 34.31%

Stakes: 1299.00pts
Returns: 1406.02pts
P/L : +107.02pts (+8.24% ROI)

Your first 30 days for just £1

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Here are the last picks of the week...

1.40 Catterick :

After being outpaced on debut and finishing well down the field at Carlisle, Indian Pursuit (15/8 BOG) has finished third in each of his subsequent three starts, the latest of which was four weeks ago over this course and distance, when only beaten by a length and three quarters whilst staying on well from mid-division.

Both the winner, the runner-up and the 8th placed horse (who was 10L further back) have all reappeared and won since that day, suggesting that Indian Pursuit will go well again here, provided he handles the soft ground, although he has raced on good to soft over track and trip two starts ago.

The main rival on form, at least, would have to be the 9/4 BOG Dacoity, who has also finished third in his last/only two outings. He showed plenty of promise when beaten by less than a length at Pontefract over 5f two months ago, finishing a length ahead of Swirral Edge who was a 12/1 winner on nursery debut at Ayr nine days ago.

Dacoity then stepped up to today's 6f trip for his run at Nottingham, when third once again, but he ran well enough and coped with the soft ground. That experience of stepping up to this trip and also of running on soft will stand him in good stead and he represents a yard with a decent record at this venue.

*

1.45 Stratford :

Poetic Verse is both reliable and versatile, having won 6 races on the level (5 from 13 at 11.5/12 f), so she's unlikely to be done for pace here. She won over hurdles for the first time at Cartmel last September and won again (comfortably) at Market Rasen on her last effort over timber 11 weeks ago.

She's been back on the Flat to sharpen up since that run, beaten by just a length in a decent enough Class 3 handicap at Catterick over 1m4f and at 5/2 BOGPoetic Verse should just have enough to make the most of the 5lb she gets...

...from top weight and 9/2 BOG Bantam, who has taken well to hurdling this year, winning twice and finishing as a runner-up on three occasions, all from just six runs in 2015 (221412). She may well have been beaten at odds on last time around at Newton Abbot, but that was over 2m2.5f and was two furlongs further than she'd been before.

She led until two out that day, before running out of steam and the drop back to 2m is sure to be in her favour here, although it wouldn't be unfair to suggest Bantam is as high in the weights as you'd want her to be, but that is, of course, reflected in the price.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Indian Pursuit / Poetic Verse @ 9.08/1 (15/8 & 5/2 : Betfred, Stan James & Totesport)
Indian Pursuit / Bantam @ 14.84/1 (15/8 & 9/2 : Betway & Stan James)
Dacoity / Poetic Verse @ 10.38/1 (9/4 & 5/2 : Betfred & Totesport)
Dacoity / Bantam @ 16.88/1 (9/4 & 9/2 : Betway)

Double Dutch, 14th September 2015

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 14th September 2015

We were a length and a quarter away from landing an 18.25/1 double on Saturday, which would have rounded off a very good week for DD just perfectly.

That was the margin of defeat suffered in race 1 by This Is For You who, like most of the field and punters was surprised with the finish produced by the eventual winner, priced at 12/1.

Later, Adele defied a market drift from 5/2 to 9/2 to stay on well to win by a length at Musselburgh and whilst it was pleasing to end the week with a race winner, we came away empty handed.

Saturday's results were as follows:

This Is For You : 2nd at 2/1 (adv 5/2)
Ejaazah : 6th at 4/1 (adv 9/2)
----------------------------------------------------
Adele : WON at 9/2 (adv 5/2)
Maxwell : 6th at 11/5 (adv 7/2)

Results to date:
670 winning selections from 2397 = 27.95%
212 winning bets in 621 days = 34.149%

Your first 30 days for just £1

Stakes: 1241.50pts
Returns: 1342.69pts
P/L : +101.19pts (+8.15% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

We start the new week with these...

4.50 Stratford :

It has been over 32 months since Cousin Khee was last seen tackling an obstacle, doing all his running since on the flat and picking up four wins, suggesting he shouldn't be getting done for speed between the hurdles. Ground speed is obviously only part of the equation, but I'm fairly sure he'll have been extensively schooled by his trainer Hughie Morrison and could potentially be leniently treated here today.

He was third in a Class 3 hurdle at Aintree off a mark of 123, so the 118 allocated here is very workable and in Hughie Morrison, he is trained by a man who doesn't have that many NH runners, but is 7/24 for 27.7pts with handicap hurdlers priced at 10/1 or shorter since the start of 2010, making Cousin Khee of interest here at 3/1 BOG.

Shout It Aloud probably has as much chance of winning as the above runner, but is more attractively priced at 5/1 BOG and comes here with far fewer miles on the clock after just three runs in bumpers and three more over hurdles. He was third last time out when making his handicap bow at Newton Abbot a little over three weeks ago, despite having a relatively unsuccessful 7lb claimer in the saddle.

Since 2009, Tim Vaughan's hurdlers are 23/113 for 59.4pts here at Stratford with today's jockey Richard Johnson riding 13 of those winners from just 50 attempts with that resultant 26% strike rate yielding level stakles profits of 25.1pts (+50.2% ROI).

*

5.10 Wolverhampton :

A poor looking contest, where I'm relatively happy to dismiss the chances of most runners and the short(-ish!) priced 7/4 BOG favourite Cote D'Azur seems the one to beat. He was third on his handicap debut three weeks ago, when beaten by less than three lengths over a mile at Kempton and had run really well before fading in the final furlong.

The drop back to 7f should therefore suit him better and the runner-up has since won off a mark of 61 (our runner is off 56 here). His trainer Sir Mark Prescott's runners are 8/30 for 16.3pts in handicaps on the tapeta here with Luke Morris riding all 8 winners from 27 starts.

The tentative backup plan is the 7/1 BOG Fabulous Darling, who was a decent third on debut at Windsor six weeks ago, but hasn't sparkled in two runs since. She was possibly unsuited by the softer ground at Ascot last time out, but switched to this surface and up in trip for a handicap debut, she does at least look interesting off a mark of 60 reduced by her jockey's 5lb claim.

The jockey, Kieran Shoemark, is 7/16 for 17.9pts on 2/3 yr olds in Wolverhampton handicaps, whilst the yard is 19/74 for 95.3pts with runners aged 2 to 4 at odds of 5/1 to 10/1 in A/W handicaps over the last five seasons, giving us some hope of a run for our money here.

For the benefit of brevity, I've purposefully not expanded on the stats I've based the selections upon, but I'm always happy to deal with queries via the comments box below.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Cousin Khee / Cote D'Azur @ 9.31/1 (11/4 & 7/4 : Paddy Power)
Cousin Khee / Fabulous Darling @ 28.13/1 (11/4 & 13/2 : Hills)
Shout It Aloud / Cote D'Azur @ 15.50/1 (5/1 & 7/4 : Paddy)
Shout It Aloud / Fabulous Darling @ 41/1 (5/1 & 6/1 : Betfred, Paddy & Totesport)

Stat of the Day, 5th September 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 5th September 2015

We took 11/2 about Windy Citi at Kempton yesterday and I though we have stolen a point of more off the market, but she actually went off at that same price and matching the SP was probably the highlight of the pick!

She was held up well off (too far?) the pace and had plenty to do late on, but found little.

Final result? 6th of 9 at 11/2 and beaten by 7 lengths, a result I'll be seeking better of in Saturday's...

3.50 Stratford :

I'm back from my holiday now and from Monday, we'll be settling back into something more like the old routine, where I attempt to get at least the pick out to you the night before racing. Of course, following us on Facebook and/or Twitter is still the best way to know exactly when I've posted.

And a 3/1 BOG bet on Philip Hobbs' 9 yr old chaser Carrigmorna King, who will be ridden by Richard Johnson today.

The Hobbs' chasers have been in fine fine form of late with the last 25 runners (spread over 16 weeks, so no short purple patch!) producing 8 winners (32% SR) and 10.5pts profit at an ROI of 42%.

Of those 25 runners, there was a 6/21 (28.6% SR) record in handicaps generating 10pts (+47.5% ROI) profit, whilst Richard Johnson rode 6 winners from 17 (43.8% SR) for 14pts (+87.7% ROI) and there were 5 winners from the 8 Stratford (62.5% SR) runners, making a further 19.6pts (+244.9% ROI) profit.

In the last 16 weeks, Hobbs / Johnson / Stratford hcp chases = 4/7 (57.1% SR) for 15.1pts (+216.1% ROI) from a run that started with Carrigmorna King's win here over 2m4f on 17th May.

More longer-term, Philip Hobbs' chasers are 12/28 here at Stratford since the start of 2013, producing level stakes profits of 35pts (+125.1% ROI) with his handicappers winning 11 of 26 (42.3% SR) for 34.2pts (+131.6% ROI).

Richard Johnson's tally from those 28 chasers is 7 wins from 17 (41.2% SR) for 15.9pts (+93.5% ROI) and since the start of 2013, Hobbs / Johnson / Stratford hcp chases = 6/15 (40% SR) for 15.1pts (+100.5% ROI).

Carrigmorna King is only 3/17 over fences, but has two wins under Richard Johnson, two wins at this Class 3 level (2131 last four runs) and is 2 from 2 here at Stratford, having won over 2m4f and 2m 5.5f. He's never won at this trip over fences, but has a runner-up finish to his name and stays 3 miles comfortably enough, suggesting 2m 6.5f is within his reach on his favoured track.

He was admittedly well beaten last time out, but I'm willing to overlook that run, as he'd been stepped up to Listed Class for the Summer Plate and this Class 3 contest is far more suitable as he now drops back down in grade and since the start of 2012, Philip Hobbs' chasers dropping down in grade and running at odds of 6/4 to 12/1 are 28/118 (23.7% SR) for 55pts (+46.6% ROI).

Richard Johnson is 16/68 (23.5% SR) for 29.8pts (+43.8% ROI) on those class droppers, whilst those running here at Stratford are 3/6 (50% SR) for 6.6pts at an ROI of 110.4%.

That 3/1 BOG above is currently available from both BetVictor & Hills and I've gone with the latter, but to see your preferred firm's prices...

...click here for the betting on the 3.50 Stratford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 27th August 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 27th August 2015

Cloud Seven was a little disappointing at Kempton last night, as he looked pretty laboured in the closing stages, despite being kept in a decent position.

When he moved to the right with just over a furlong to run, I thought that was the point that he'd set off to win the race, but he was very one paced on the run in and eventually got beaten into 4th place, almost 8 lengths off the winner.

Despite a couple of reversals last week away from the Flat & A/W, I turn again to some National Hunt action (there's more of this than anything else today, strangely) and the race in question is the...

3.10 Stratford :

But before I give you the selection, a quick update on my schedule that you might find useful. As you know I'm away on holiday at present, but I've now a daily routine established. If SotD isn't now posted between 6.30pm & 7.00pm in the evening, it will appear between 8.30am & 9.00am on the day of the race.

Thursday's runner is Good of Luck, who is currently available at 3/1 BOG pretty much everywhere, is trainer Warren Greatrex's only runner here at Stratford today and jockey Gavin Sheehan's only booked ride of the day.

Trainer Warren is 17 from 50 (34% SR) for 16.5pts (+33% ROI) here at this track with an impressive 10 from 28 (35.7% SR) from hid hurdlers here that has generated 12.12pts profit (+43.3% ROI) to date. Jockey Gavin has ridden 4 of those hurdle winners from 16 attempts (25% SR) for 4.63pts (+28.9% ROI).

Good of Luck is 4 from 17 over hurdles which isn't a bad return, but more recently since returning from a 3 month break last year, he returned to action last July and has 3 wins and two places from 6 runs (133141) and he's 141 this year after an 8 month break from mid-September last year to mid-May 2015, so he's clearly not one who needs to be kept busy!

He's 1/1 at this track, acquired when Gavin Sheehan piloted him to a course and distance success last time out almost seven weeks ago. That took his record under Mr Sheehan to 4 from 9 and his record at 2m to 2m1f to 4/10. He has won on good ground in the past (inc. LTO) and also on soft ground, so conditions look ideal today.

It's also worth noting that since the start of 2008, handicap hurdlers who won last time out anywhere and are now running over a course and distance at which they have previously won, were winners again on 270 of 1398 (19.3% SR) occasions, producing level stakes profits of 184.6pts at an ROI of 13.25%.

Of those 1398 runners...

  • Class 3 competitors are 67/305 (22% SR) for 181.2pts (+59.6% ROI), of which...
  • those whose last run was 11 to 60 days ago are 52/226 (23% SR) for 181.6pts (+80.4% ROI), of which...
  • those running at the same course and distance as LTO are 41/171 (24% SR) for 145.4pts  (+85% ROI)

I took 3/1 BOG about Good of Luck from Bet365, but to get your preferred bookie's price...

...click here for the betting on the 3.10 Stratford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 20th August 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 20th August 2015

After a rare day off due to a non-runner on Tuesday, it was back to business with a bang at Ffos Las in the wet and the gloom on Wednesday afternoon, as Declan Bates did a magnificent job of getting Sir Billy Wright home with something to spare in the end.

At halfway of the 5f contest, it didn't look like it was going to be our day, but the pair seemed to glide across the sodden turf, making up loads of ground to pull clear to win by half a length, but relatively comfortably in the end.

Our 100/30 bet was reduced to 3/1 via the dreaded Rule 4 again, but we still smashed the 15/8 SP by some distance on the way to making it 2 from 2 for the week and we're now hat-trick seeking in the...

4.40 Stratford :

And a family affair in this 2m 6.5f, Class 4 handicap chase which is reported to be on good to firm ground, but I'd not be surprised to see the firm bit dropped tomorrow! That's the setting for the race in place, now onto the finer details!

The family in question are the Skeltons and their horse Vivacissimo is priced at 6/1 non-BOG (until 9.00am) with Ladbrokes and a generally available 11/2 BOG to take his own personal Stratford tally to 2 from 2.

In nine days time, it will be two years to the day that trainer Dan Skelton had his first NH handicap runner. Brother Harry was in the saddle aboard Gavroche Gauvain in a Class 5, 2m3f, handicap hurdle here at Stratford, but there was no fairytale beginning. The team was the last home of seven finishers, but thankfully they've never looked back since.

To date, Dan's NH handicappers are now 74/348 (21.3% SR) for 11.3pts profit at a rather modest 3.25% ROI, but blind profitability is always a great starting point for refinement, as we don't really want to back every runner anyway!

Simply avoiding odds on jollies and those beyond 12/1 gives us a far more palatable 69 winners from 300 (23% SR) and profits of 50.9pts at an ROI of 17%, which is more to my liking!

Of those 300, Harry Skelton is 51/223 (22.9% SR) for 58.7pts (+26.3% ROI) and Dan's handicappers are 6/20 (30% SR) here at Stratford for 5.6pts (+28% ROI).

A quick and easy micro for you from the above would be to back the Skelton brothers when partnered up in Class 4/5 handicap chases at evens to 12/1. In almost two years, that gives 18 winners from 58 (31% SR) and 20.8pts (+35.9% ROI) profit. That particular angle is 2/4 here at Stratford for 2.57pts (+64.2% ROI).

More generally, the boys are 82/366 (22.4% SR) for 69.1pts (+18.9% ROI) together with horses priced in that evens to 12/1 range. I mentioned earlier that they were 51/223 (22.9% SR) for 58.7pts (+26.3% ROI) in handicaps at those odds, but they're also 9/25 (36% SR) for 19.6pts (+78.4% ROI) together here at Stratford.

As a team together in hcp chases on this track at the same odds range, they are 3/9 (33.33% SR) for 5.86pts (+65.1% ROI) profit with those horses priced at 5/4 to 7/1 winning 3 of 6 (50% SR) for 8.86pts at an ROI of 147.6%.

Vivacissimo is 1 from 1 here on this course, albeit over hurdles just two starts ago, but has won over fences at a trip of 2m 4.5f and the way he has stayed in the past suggests he'll get today's trip well enough. He's also 1 from 1 under Harry Skelton and with Harry back amongst the winners with a 16/1 triumph at Worcester on Wednesday evening, confidence should be high.

I decided to take the 11/2 BOG about Vivacissimo from Coral, as I felt it was worth sacrifcing 8.3% of the Ladbrokes price to get the insurance against a drift, but please feel free to make your own decision on this one, after you...

...click here for the betting on the 4.40 Stratford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Double Dutch, 30th June 2015

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 30th June 2015

No double landed yesterday despite a 1-2 finish in our opener where the 10/3 to 9/2 drifter Another Royal just got up on the line to snatch victory from my first pick and 15/8 favorite Sleeping Apache. I also know that many of you like to do the forecasts etc and you were rewarded at the tune of 13.3/1.

This, of course, meant we'd a good stake going onto race 2, but the best we got was a 4th place finish from New Colours at 2/1, as he was headed with a furlong to run and ultimately beaten by 4 lengths.

But the day wasn't a wipeout for us, as Card High's withdrawl from that second race meant we still had a winning day, getting paid out on a 9/2 single from the Another Royal/Card High double. A 0.75pts profit on the day might not sound much at face vaule, but it does represent a 37.5% ROI and if replicated daily, I'd gladly settle for 4.5pts every 6 days!

Monday's results were as follows:

Another Royal : WON at 9/2 (adv 10/3)
Sleeping Apache : 2nd at 15/8 (adv 2/1)
The Exacta paid £14.30 here.
----------------------------------------------------
New Colours : 4th at 2/1 (adv 5/2)
Card High : non-runner (adv 11/4)

Results to date:
611 winning selections from 2150 = 28.42%
193 winning bets in 557 days = 34.65%

Your first 30 days for just £1

Stakes: 1113.50pts
Returns: 1228.89pts
P/L : +115.39pts (+10.36% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

June's last races for DD are...

3.15 Hamilton:

I've liked the way Kerrymerry has progressed this season having stepped up markedly in trip from four nondescript runs over 7f as a 2yr old. He retuirned to the fray after a 6-month break to run third at Beverley over 1m4f in May, twice as far as he'd gone in the past and then landed back to back handicaps at Lingfield at the start of this month, a 10f win on the A/W followed by an 11.5f success on turf there three days later, winning both fairly comfortably by two lengths each.

He was, however, folied in his hat-trick bid last time out as he was caught very late on over 1m4f at Newbury when tiring towards the finish. He had, nevertheless, run a big race, but went down as a runner-up, beaten by just half a length.

It's highly possible that a third run on 10 days was a step too far, so he's had the best part of three weeks to recover and he'll now try again in the knowledge that he beat Who Dares Wins by half alength in that last race and the latter was a 4 length winer at Wolverhampton yesterday. Despite needing a bit more today off 69, Kerrymerry still gets weight from all his rivals, thanks to his 14lb weight for age allowance and looks dangerous at 9/2 BOG.

If however, he finds one just too good again, it's highly likely that it'll be the 6/4 BOG favourite More Mischief, who is still unexposed after just three starts (unraced as a 2 yr old). She has finished 712 so far this season and won an 8.5f maiden on soft ground here at this track almost two months ago.

She was then second over 10.5 furlongs at Haydock on her handicap debut being far from disgraced in getting beat by just a length behind Mark Johnston's progressive Mythical City, who has since won both her subsequent outings, including a step up in class at Chester last Friday. If More Mischief continues to improve and runs like she did last time out, we could have a cracking finish on our hands.

*

8.00 Stratford:

Noble Friend has been in fine form of late, winning three of his last four outings and only beaten by a length and a half in the defeat. He has always seemed to be just doing enough to win whilst looking like the trip were just a little on the sharp side for him. That said, he was coasting home staying on well to win by 6 lengths last time out and I believe he'll do even better stepping up in trip today and I'd expect him to land this at 11/4 BOG.

The biggest danger is probably going to come from the consistent 13 yr old veteran Porters War. His last seen runs may well have been spread over a 19 month period, but there's a serious level of consistency about him. His finishes in that run read as 1221352. Ground conditions are in his favour, he prefers to go left handed and has won a couple of races over 2m4f in the past.

He was only beaten by half a length here last time out, with the next horse a further 17 lengths back and the winner from that race, Sporting Boy, has since steppeds up in class and won again. At 13, there's no guarantee of a repeat performance, but recent consistent history suggests another decent run and if things do qwuite go right for Noble Friend, I'd want to be on Porters War at 5/1 BOG with Bet365.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

More Mischief / Noble Friend @ 8.38/1 (6/4 & 11/4 : generally)
More Mischief/ Porters War @ 14/1 (6/4 & 5/1 : Bet365)
Kerrymerry / Noble Friend @ 17.75/1 (4/1 & 11/4 : generally)
Kerrymerry / Porters War @ 29/1 (4/1 & 5/1 : Bet365)

Stat of the Day, 30th June 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 30th June 2015

Rosenbaum was backed all day as though he just couldn't lose and come race-time our 7/2 BOG bet was looking very good value indeed as he was sent off at even money!

He was the beneficiary of yet another patient and well-timed ride, this time from William Buick, who took the initiative just inside the final furlong and ran on/pulled away to open up a 4 length gap by the time he hit the line to add another 3.5pts of SP-smashing profit to the kitty.

Last one now of what has been a tremendous month, the...

7.30 Stratford:

Which is a Class 4, handicap hurdle for 4yr olds and older. The trip is 2m 0.5f on good ground and Richard Johnson will carry the weight of Geegeez readers' expectations on board Charlie Longsdon's 4yr old gelding, Zarawi, who currently trades at 100/30 BOG in places.

Both Charlie and Richard are in decent form...

Charlie Longsdon has saddled up 2 winners from 6 in the last two weeks, whilst over the past 8 weeks, his hurdlers are 12/30 (40% SR) for 21.3pts (+71% ROI) profit. of which the handicappers are 8/19 (42.1% SR) for 23.5pts (+123.6% ROI).

Richard Johnson, for his part, has ridden 19 winners from 83 (22.9% SR) in the last month with his hurdlers priced at 5/1 and shorter winning 11 of 22 (50% SR) for 14.3pts (+65% ROI)

They also work well together...

Since the start of 2011. the partnership has 25 winners from 87 (28.7% SR) for 32.4pts (+37.3% ROI), from which their hurdlers have won 17 of 49 (34.7% SR) for 8.4pts (+17.2% ROI) with those priced at 5/1 and shorter having a record of 17/32 (53.1% SR) for 25.4pts (+79.5% ROI).

Charlie's horses tend to go well here...

With 21 winners from 101 runners, the resultant 20.8% stable strike rate has generated level stakes profits of 38.4pts at an ROI of 37.6% with the hurdlers contributing 11 wins from 49 (22.5% SR) for 25.1pts (+51.2% ROI).

And since 2009, his handicap hurdlers are 8/26 (30.8% SR) for 23.2pts (+89.4% ROI) here.

Zarawi was a winner last time out, 3 weeks ago at Fontwell...

And Charlie Longsdon's handicap hurdlers who were winners last time out and then raced again at odds of 5/1 and shorter within a month of that win, went on to "double up" on 11 of 24 (45.8% SR) occasions producing profits of 8.24pts (+34.3% ROI), whilst since the start of 2013, those figures improve to 7 wins from 14 (50% SR) for 7.17pts (+51.2% ROI).

It was a novice hurdle that he won LTO...

And male handicap hurdlers who were winners of a Novice hurdle last time out, 16 to 25 days ago are 84/391 (21.5% SR) for 157.3pts (+40.2% ROI) since 2008 and those sent off at 11/8 to 9/1 are 76/288 (26.4% SR) for 156.5pts (+54.3% ROI)

And there's probably enough data there to back up the selection. But hang on, let's throw another micro system at it for good measure, shall we? 😀

OK, it was actually a handicap novice hurdle that he won by 9 lengths LTO...

And since the start of 2012, male handicap hurdlers who were winners of a handicap hurdle by more than 4 lengths LTO and race again within 2 months of that win, went on to win again on 237 of 934 (25.4% SR) reappearances, generating 179.3pts profit at an ROI of 19.2% with those priced at Evens to 11/1 winning 201 of 775 (25.9% SR) for 197.9pts (+25.5% ROI), from which those running here at Stratford are 7/17 (41.2% SR) for 27.3pts (+160.7% ROI).

Zarawi, for his part...

...has adapted to handicap hurdling really well, finishing 4171 in four outings to date and in those four runs, he has won over 2m and also over 2m 1.5f, so the trip should be fine here, he's 171 on good ground and also 171 when priced below 4/1. He's 1/1 under Richard Johnson and 1/1 at this Class 4 level and 2 from 2 in fields of 7 or fewer runners, whilst he has finished 411 when racing within 16 to 30 of his last run.

All in all, conditions look ideal for Zarawi here and I'm more than happy to place June's last bet on him at 100/30 BOG with Bet365. Or if you'd prefer to use BetVictor, then they're also offering the same price, whilst the rest of the market can be seen by...

...clicking here for the betting on the 7.30 Stratford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Double Dutch, 16th June 2015

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 16th June 2015

After the euphoria of ending last week with a 36.5/1 wining double, it didn't take long for me to be brought back to earth with a bump.

3rd and 5th in a 5-horse race was followed by a non-runner and the last horse home in a 4-runner contest. An awful way to start the week and not one worth dwelling on, if truth be told.

Monday's results were as follows:

Shady Lane : 3rd at 15/8 (adv 7/4)
Bella : 5th at 5/2 (adv 15/8)
----------------------------------------------------
Uptight : 4th at 6/4 (adv 4/1)
Just Us Two : N/R (adv 7/4)

Results to date:
597 winning selections from 2104 = 28.37%
188 winning bets in 545 days = 34.50%

Stakes: 1089.50pts
Returns: 1195.67pts

Your first 30 days for just £1

P/L : +106.17pts (+9.74% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

I'm expecting better from these on Tuesday...

3.20 Stratford:

Sail And Return has won three times from just six efforts here at Stratford in the past, albeit over hurdles, but he did show that there's plenty of life left in the old boy with a 4.5 length win over fences at Southwell a fortnight ago.

He's fully at home round these parts and the good ground is perfect for this 11 yr old, who will readily deal with the extra two furlongs here (has has won twice round here over 3m3f after all!) and Sail And Return looks the pick of a fairly mediocre bunch at 7/2 BOG.

In mid-April, Owen Glendower returned to action after a 16 month absence from the track and was in the process of running a big race before falling 3 out. He followed that up with a victory in a Hunters Chase at Uttoxeter three weeks later before running a decent second at Bangor next/last time out.

He's a former course winner (over hurdles) who is 2 from 2 in this grade and is 5 from 14 in fields of 11 or fewer runners and off a mark of 117 is still considerably lower than before he took the lengthy break, making Owen Glendower of serious interest at 4/1 BOG.

*

4.45 Thirsk:

The good to firm ground here isn't ideal for any of the runners in this contest, so it's a fairly level playing field in that respect. The one I like most despite the going conditions is Richard Fahey's filly Emerahldz, currently a 5/2 BOG chance aiming to be come Mr Fahey's third winner of this race in the last 6 years.

Up to the end of last season, she had won 5 of 10 handicap outings and was placed on four other occasions, before taking 7 months off. She returned to action at York at the end of May and acquitted herself really well, beaten by less than 2.5 lengths. She's entitled to have needed the outing and with that run under her belt, Emerahldz would be my pick here.

The lightly raced Sea The Skies (by Sea The Stars) has shown some ability in his five starts to date finishing 31218 so far. His last win came at Leicester off the back of almost 22 months off the track and his subsequent 6 lengths defeat at Newmarket might have had something to do with the bounce factor.

Sea The Stars progeny are profitable to follow blindly beyond at 1m3f and beyond, so it'll be good to see how he fares on his first crack at a mile and a half today. There's not much form to take from his last run, but he was ahead of Donny Rover at HQ last time out and the latter was a winner at York last Friday, so perhaps an 11/4 BOG wager on Sea The Skies might prove a good move.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Sail And Return / Emerahldz @ 14.75/1 (7/2 & 5/2 : Coral, Hills & Stan James)
Sail And Return / Sea The Skies @ 15.88/1 (7/2 & 11/4 : Boylesports, Seanie Mac & Stan James)
Owen Glendower / Emerahldz @ 16.50/1 (4/1 & 5/2 : Coral, Hills & Stan James)
Owen Glendower / Sea The Skies @ 17.75/1 (4/1 & 11/4 : Boylesports, Seanie Mac & Stan James)

Stat of the Day, 30th May 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 30th May 2015

I suggested that yesterday's race at Brighton might not be the strongest and when a horse who is 0/15 on turf wins relatively comfortably, that says it all.

Mind you, Tilstarr had a job to do and we'd highlighted why we thought she'd run well and there's no denying she ran well. No luck involved, she was the best on the day, winning by the best part of two lengths at the same 11/4 price we'd advised.

It was a most welcome return to the winning enclosure for both Tilstarr and SotD alike and I now turn to the last pick of the week/month (even I take Sundays off!), which looks a decent price in the...

7.55 Stratford:

Where, despite there being a fairly large field, 7/1 BOG about Claret Cloak might prove generous just after 8'0'clock.

He's trained by Emma Lavelle...

...who, since 2008 is 9/60 (15% SR) for 18.5pts (+30.9% ROI) here at Stratford and in handicaps, she's 7/42 (16.7% SR) for 22.7pts (+54% ROI), whilst in the last five years her handicap hurdlers are 3/8 (37.5% SR) for 12.2pts (+152.4% ROI) on this track, of which the 5/2 to 10/1 runners are 3/6 (50% SR) for 14.2pts (+236.6% ROI).

Today's jockey is Gavin Sheehan...

...who is no mug and is riding well enough (4/22 in the last fortnight) to instil confidence. He's 11/70 (15.7% SR) on Emma's horses and is most profitable on her hurdlers priced below 10/1, where he has won 7 of 28 (25% SR) races for profits of 14.5pts at an ROI of 51.7%.

He also rides well here...

...to the tune of 5 winners from 19 (26.3% SR) for 3.2pts (+16.8% ROI) on horses priced below 10/1 in the last 12 months.

So what of Claret Cloak?

Well, he hasn't competed over hurdles for 777 days, but that last run was a course and distance win here at Stratford, before embarking on a chasing career. He comes here in good nick, having finished second in a Listed chase just three starts ago off a mark of 147 and won a Class 2 Chase last time out (26 days ago) off 151.

He now reverts to hurdles off what looks a lenient 146 to me, especially considering he has 3 wins and a placed finish from his seven runs over timber in the past. He finished third in a Listed hurdle and was considered good enough to contest two grade 3 hurdles. If adjusting immediately, he could well be thrown in, despite bearing top weight.

Conditons seem to be in his general favour, he's 1/1 here at Stratford (that last hurdles outing over C&D), he's 4 from 9 on good ground and 4 from 6 at today's trip. He has won twice and finished runner-up once in three runs carrying 11-12 and he has won 4 of 9 when racing within 21 to 40 days of his last outing (3/4 within 25 to 30 days!)

At first glance, it could look like I'm tilting at windmills trying to end the month with a bang (no booms at geegeez!), but I assure you that's not the case and it never will be. We don't advocate chasing losses at any time.

I genuinely like his chances and I'd expect him to shorten to a more familiar price as the day goes on, so I suggest getting on Claret Cloak at 7/1 BOG with Bet365 (or BetVictor if you prefer) whilst you can and when that goes 6/1 BOG is still decent, so be sure to check all the bookies by...

...clicking here for the betting on the 7.55 Stratford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Double Dutch, 9th March 2015

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 9th March 2015

For a long time, Saturday looked like being a good day for us, starting with a 1-2 finish up at Ayr. Sir Vinski led Aniknam home by four lengths and with their nearest challenger a good 10 lengths further back, it was a decent result to get a winner 2/1 and the bonus of a £6.20 forecast.

We had a couple of hours to wait until the well-backed Mister Grez appeared at Chepstow and he ran a pretty good race, if truth be told. Unfortunately, Oscar Hill was able to defy top weight and make all, seeing our runner off by 8 lengths in the end.

Saturday's results were as follows:

Sir Vinski : WON at 2/1 (adv 15/8)
Aniknam : 2nd at 2/1 (adv 11/4)
The forecast/exacta was worth 5.2/1 here
------------------------------------------
Mister Grez : 2nd at 13/8 (adv 2/1)
Whispering Harry : u/p at 9/4 (adv 7/2)

Results to date:
508 winning selections from 1783 = 28.49%
159 winning bets in 462 days = 34.42%

Stakes: 923.50pts
Returns: 1019.90pts

Your first 30 days for just £1

P/L : +96.40pts (+10.44% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Cheltenham is almost upon, but first we've to try to find a couple of winners on a typical Mediocre March Monday (I doubt racing's marketing people will want to borrow that slogan).

The best NH horses are either injured or going to Cheltenham, so with no A/W racing at all to look at, we're stuck with those deemed not good enough for Chelts today...

2.40 Stratford:

Rear Admiral has been placed twice from three efforts over fences to date and looked set to win at Musselburgh last time out, but for a tired error at the last which contributed to a 1.5 length defeat to the progressive hat-trick completing Present Lodger. His tendency to jump left caused the problem last time out and the switch to a left handed track and a drop in trip should keep him in the hunt at 13/8 BOG.

The biggest danger should come from the 7/2 BOG Midnight Chorister. This son of Midnight Legend was a winner on his chasing debut and ran well at Leicester last time out, finishing third despite conceding plenty of weight all round.

He had Artifice Sivola almost two lengths behind him in fourth place that day and the latter's subsequent 20 length victory at Fakenham last Monday was pretty interesting. This looks a weaker affair than his last effort and if he can repeat that same level of performance today, then he could well be the one.

*

3.30 Plumpton:

Sportsreport has finished 131 in his last three outings over fences and at 15/8 BOG, looks the likeliest to succeed here today. He's up 9lbs for his latest, facile 10L victory, but his jockey will take a useful 3lbs of that rise off his back. And despite this being his 12th start over fences, I'm not entirely convinced that there isn't more to come from this horse.

The truth is that he hasn't had much to beat of late and today's tougher challenge might well bring about a little more improvement from Sportsreport, which he might need if Noble Friend responds favourably the first-time fitting of a hood. He ran very creditably to finish third and over course and distance six weeks ago off a mark some 8lbs higher than today.

He has since competed in a much stringer event at Sandown and although fairly well beaten that day, a couple of late errors made the defeat look worse than it actually was and today's drop in class might be all that's needed for a debut win at 3/1 BOG.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Rear Admiral / Sportsreport @ 6.19/1 (6/4 & 15/8 : Bet Victor & Hills)
Rear Admiral / Noble Friend @ 9.50/1 (13/8 & 3/1 : Paddy Power)
Midnight Chorister / Sportsreport @ 11.94/1 (7/2 & 15/8 : Hills & SkyBet)
Midnight Chorister / Noble Friend @ 15.88/1 (7/2 & 11/4 : Boylesports, Hills & SkyBet)

Double Dutch, 25th October 2014

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 25th October 2014

There was almost an air of inevitability hanging over us yesterday as we once again surfaced empty handed with another winner/runner-up combo. I really liked Wiesentraum at Fakenham yesterday, so much so that he was one of main bets of the day and he duly obliged for us, winning comfortably by six lengths despite being eased right down after the last fence.

Unfortunately that excellent run counted for nothing in regards to the double, as just 20 minutes earlier Vegas Rebel just failed by a neck to catch the leader after coming from well off the pace in the final furlong and would most likely have got his nose in front 20 yards further on.

However, the bookies are reluctant to pay out on what ifs and maybes, so it's another 2pts lost, I'm afraid!

Friday's results were as follows:

Vegas Rebel: 2nd at 6/4 (adv 3/1)
St Brelades Bay: u/p at 5/1 (adv 5/2)
------------------------------------------
Wiesentraum: won at 9/4 (adv 5/2)
Teak: 3rd at 5/4 (adv 2/1)

Your first 30 days for just £1

Results to date:
383 winning selections from 1352 = 28.33%
122 winning bets in 352 days = 34.66%

Stakes: 703.50pts
Returns: 741.46pts

P/L : +37.96pts (+5.40% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Last chance of the week to break this 1-2 sequence...

2.15 Stratford:

Red Seventy looks the best treated here off 116 and although he hasn't been in top form of late, did show some signs of a recovery when not disgraced in finishing 6th of 7 over course and distance here back in September. That run was better than the bare result looks for despite hitting the last hurdle quite hard and losing some ground, he was beaten by just over 5 lengths by the eventual winner.

That was a Class 2 contest and Roman Flight  (who finished 3rd, 4 lengths ahead of Red Seventy) has since won twice at Class 3 level, including a nice win yesterday. This represents a major drop in quality down to Class5 and could be just the race to get Red Seventy winning again at 11/4 BOG.

The biggest obstacle barring his return to winning ways will be the current 6/4 BOG favourite Hawdyerwheesht, who comes here off the back of a win at Chepstow, albeit in a similar standard of seller. Hawdyerwheesht has been very consistent since switching to hurdles, enjoys the current ground conditions and as n ex-Flat horse, won't mind the drop back in trip, which should allow him to demonstrate his ground speed to better effect.

*

3.50 Doncaster:

Aidan O'Brien has trained the winner of this race 7 times in the last 16 years and three times in the last five and will fancy his chances with Jacobean who currently trades at 100/30 BOG. This is, of course, major step up in quality to what he faced on debut, but he certainly caught the eye with a fast finish at the Curragh just 13 days ago. You know he's going to improve and the way he finished suggested that the move to a mile would also play to his strengths. Jacobean was runner-up on debut that day and I fear he might suffer the same fate today behind...

...Elm Park, who is surely the one to beat at 2/1 BOG. He comes here on the back of a hat-trick of wins, including success at Listed level and a Group 2 win last time out in the Royal Lodge Stakes four weeks ago. It has been said that it wasn't the best renewal of that particular race, but Elm Park could only beat what was in front of him and despite being outpaced in the midsection of the race, stayed on well to win by a length and that run is probably the best piece of form on display here.

4 x 0.5pt doubles as follows:

Hawdyerwheesht / Elm Park @ 6.50/1 (6/4 & 2/1 : SkyBet)
Hawdyerwheesht / Jacobean @ 9.83/1 (6/4 & 10/3 : Paddy Power)
Red Seventy / Elm Park @ 10.25/1 (11/4 & 2/1 : Bet365, BetVictor & SkyBet)
Red Seventy/ Jacobean @ 15.25/1 (11/4 & 10/3 : Bet365)

Double Dutch, 31st May 2014

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 31st May 2014

Friday was a good day for us, as firstly Hillbilly Boy maintained his consistent excellent run of form and although he'll get hit hard again for his east 5 length victory, I wouldn't be surprised to see him win again very soon.

If anything, race 2 went even better with a 1-2 finish and an 8/1 forecast to boot. You're Fired finished the race in impressive/imperious mood sweeping from last to first inside the final furlong to get up by a neck and land a 12/1 double for us.

It's possibly a little churlish/greedy, but had he not quite made it and ended up second, the forecast would have been higher and the double would have paid out at 22/1. Nevertheless, it really was a good day after recent frustrations.

Friday's results were as follows:

Hillbilly Boy: won at 2/1 (adv 10/3)
Victoire de Lyphar: u/p at 5/1 (adv 5/1)
---------------------------------
You're Fired: won at 9/4 (adv 2/1)
Regiment: 2nd at 9/2 (adv 5/1)

Your first 30 days for just £1

Results to date:
245 winning selections from 878 = 27.90%
78 winning bets in 229 days = 34.06%

Stakes: 456.00pts
Returns: 492.41pts

P/L : +36.41pts (+7.98% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

It was nice to get back to winning ways, here's hoping for more of the same from these...

1.50 York:

Sirius Prospect is a dual course and distance winner, the most recent of which was a Listed event. He has an overall record of 9 wins from 35 starts and in addition to two wins at Listed class, he is unbeaten in three starts at this lower sub-£20,000 Class 2 level. He has won three times here at York and has a record of two wins and two places from six runs on soft ground and is a 7/2 BOG shot to improve upon those figures.

Best of Order is making only his third start in the UK at the age of 7 yrs old and was a winner last time out on his debut for the David O'Meara yard when winning over 7f on heavy ground at Doncaster almost three weeks ago. That run came after a 7-months absence from the track, so there's every chance he'll be able to come on for that run. He won six races in France at 6 to 8 furlongs on ground from good all the way to very soft, so conditions shouldn't be an issue here and he can be backed at 5/2 BOG with Coral.

*

7.55 Stratford:

If all goes to plan, this should be a "shoot-out" between Cool Macavity and Purple Bay.

Cool Macavity is currently the 3/1 BOG favourite and comes here after a great run of form over the last 12 months or so since switching to hurdling after a moderate flat racing career, where he has won four of his last seven outings. He is four from six at the 16 to 17 furlong range of trip and his win last time out in a Grade 2 race at Punchestown is the best piece of recent form on offer here.

Purple Bay is also in good nick with a 11422 record over hurdles and only beaten by less than a length on his last two outings. I find it fairly significant that AP McCoy rides this horse for the first time here and should the ground soften any further, that will also play to his strengths. He was a winner on his only previous visit to Stratford and is 9/2 BOG with Bet365 to preserve that 100% record.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Best of Order / Cool Macavity @ 13/1 (5/2 & 3/1 : Betfair Sportsbook)
Best of Order / Purple Bay @ 16.88/1 (9/4 & 9/2 : Bet365)
Sirius Prospect / Cool Macavity @ 17/1 (7/2 & 3/1 : Stan James)
Sirius Prospect / Purple Bay @ 22.83/1 (10/3 & 9/2 : Bet365)

Stat of the Day, 10th March 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 10th March 2014

Just as we had three consecutive fourth placed finishes a week ago, Hitchen's defeat on Saturday was our third successive third place finish! The margin of defeat was just two necks as he came from a good way off the pace to attempt to defy the chunks of weight he was conceding to the rest of the field.

He was fairly motoring down the outside, but just couldn't quite get to the leaders in a run that belied his 5/1 odds we'd taken. In fact, he was sent off at 7/2 SP, meaning that we'd got the value once again.

We made a decent 28% ROI profit last week and it  would be nice to kick off Festival Week with a winner in the...

3.40 Stratford:

A dozen of Ian Williams' 59 runners here at Stratford over the last five years have managed to win their races with the 20.3% strike rate generating 29.6pts profit from 1pt level stakes for a return of 50.2%.

And from those 59 runners, he had 10 winners (27.8%SR) from the 36 horses priced between 5/2 and 10/1 with the resultant 48pts profit representing some 133.3% of the original stakes invested.

Ian actually has five runners at the track today, but the one that interests me most from a statistical point of view is the quick-returning Fredo.

Fredo was a five lengths winner on Friday at Sandown over 2m 4.5f on soft ground and although this encounter is a 2m7f race, the way he was going away from the field in the closing stages suggests the step up in trip won't be an issue. In fact he stays much further than this trip when required.

The ground shouldn't be a concern either, he won on soft ground on Friday and his record on soft ground in the last four years reads 12151.

His quick return is also a positive for me, for chasers have historically performed well when turned out quickly after a win. If we look at horses in chases priced between evens and 8/1 running within five days of a win last time out, we see 130 victories from 385 runners, a strike rate of 33.8% yielding level stakes profits of 120.5pts or 31.3% of stakes invested.

The 5lb claiming jockey Robert McCarth is in the saddle today and trainer Ian Williams is very adept at utilising the claim system to the very best advantage and since the start of 2011, he has used a 5lb claimer on 79 horses with the 19 winners providing a more than satisfactory 24% strike rate and excellent profits of 58.1 pts (+73.6% ROI).

Today represents a tougher assignment than he faced on Saturday and since he is currently only third or fourth in the market, I could be excused for taking a cautious E/W approach and some of you might choose to do that, but I'm going to take advantage of a fairly attractive (to me, anyway) price by staking a 1pt win bet on Fredo on 6/1 BOG with BetVictor.

SkyBet and Ladbrokes (non-BOG until 9.30am, though) also go 6/1 BOG about Fredo, as you'll see when you...

Click here for the latest betting on the 3.40 Stratford:

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,
just click here for more details.

Here is today's racecard!

Double Dutch, 26th October 2013

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 26th October 2013

As expected First In The Queue took the opener yesterday, despite conceding between 9 and 20 lbs to his rivals.

Both he and the runner-up hit the last hurdle, but our selection stayed on strongest to score by half a length. He was sent off at 10/1, but we'd got on early at 11/10, so we'd 1.05pts on each of our selections in race 2, 10 minutes later.

There, Musical Comedy won for us for the second successive week and attracted some support from our early 2/1 advice and was eventually sent off as the 11/8 fav.

As in race 1, our 2nd pick finished third, so no forecasts/exactas yesterday, but we did pick up another winning double at 6.30 off two horses whose SPs combined to a double of 4.53.

This meant by taking the early BOG odds on offer, we managed to make an extra 50% above SP, once again highlighting the necessity to have accounts with all the BOG bookmakers.

I know that setting up new accounts can be a tiresome process, but here at Geegeez, we've got a special software tool which takes the hard (and dull) work out of opening accounts, and makes it easy. You fill out a single form, and our software does the rest, opening up to twelve accounts for you with all the major bookmakers.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Just click here to put it to work for you.

Yesterday's results were as follows:

First In The Queue: won at 11/10 (SP 10/11)
Ittirad: 3rd at 5/2
---------------------------------
Musical Comedy: won at 2/1 (SP 11/8)
Dutch S: 3rd at 4/1

Trial to date:
57 winning selections from 183 = 31.15%
17 winning doubles in 51 days = 33.33%

Stakes: 100.00pts
Returns: 101.55pts

P/L : +1.55pts (+1.55% ROI)

We're still just above the break even line, which in itself is a fantastic achievement compared with where we were a month ago, but we need to press on further and hopefully we'll boost the bank with these today...

3.20 Stratford:

Where I find it hard to believe the winner won't come from the top two in the market and I expect the 11/8 favourite Al Alfa to score reasonably comfortably at the expense of Arthurs Pass, who is best priced at 7/2.

Al Alfa won two races ago and looked set to repeat the feat last time at Wincanton nine days ago. Unfortunately he slipped on landing and unseated his rider, but there was no actual jumping error involved. He was travelling really well that day and was well set to win. he runs off the same mark today and should gain some compensation here.

Arthurs Pass is no mug either, having notched a hat trick at the start of the year and ran really well in defeat when finishing third at Cheltenham last time out in April. He might well need a run, though, after a six month break and his fitness will have to be taken on trust, otherwise I feel he'd be shorter in the market today.

4.45 Chepstow:

Just six runners go to post for this one, but I'm happy to disregard the bottom half of the market and focus on Rebel Rebellion, Sire de Grugy and Majala who are currently best favoured in the market.

The odd one out for me in this ménage à trois today is going to be the 2/1 favourite Rebel Rebellion.

I prefer Sire de Grugy of the three, a classy horse who is 121411 over the larger obstacles and has been running in good company at a higher level than this. If he's anywhere near the level he showed last time out at Sandown when beating Finians Rainbow and several of the runners in today's Old Roan Chase (3.05 Aintree), then he's going to be hard to beat at a reasonable price of 100/30 with Coral.

Majala, however, could well push him all the way. He scored a hat trick of wins on soft/heavy ground last winter/spring and although well beaten when stepping up in class at Cheltenham in March (6th place in the Arkle), he got back to winning ways by landing a hurdle event at Auteuil. If he's on song today and goes well fresh, he could land a bit of a coup at 7/2 (William Hill).

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Al Alfa / Sire de Grugy @ 10.31 with Coral
Al Alfa / Majala @ 10.31 with BetVictor
Arthurs Pass / Sire de Grugy @ 18.77 with Coral
Arthurs Pass / Majala @ 19.50 with BetVictor and William Hill

Stat of the Day, 17th September 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 17th September 2013

Dr Irv didn't run badly at all yesterday, but when push came to shove in the final furlong, he didn't have the same turn of foot as the two leaders and had to settle for a third place finish at 4/1, half a point shorter than our advised bet.

Hurdles action for SotD today as we tackle the...

6.05 Stratford

Alan King has a decent enough recent record here at Stratford with four winners from seventeen runners over the last couple of years and the results have yielded a level stakes profit of just over 10pts at Betfair SP: a return of 59% over stakes invested. And his last six runners here have finished 112412.

Alan has just the one runner on show on Tuesday, the in-form Letsby Avenue who comes here seeking a hat-trick of wins after two second place finishes earlier in the year. All told, this horse has won three times from seven and has finished second twice and fourth twice.

Good ground is forecast here and Letsby Avenue's record in these conditions is 1211 and he has also finished second on his last effort on good to soft, in case the rains come again!

He looks to be progressing nicely from a 23 length demolition job at Uttoxeter on his penultimate outing, which he followed up by a very solid performance to win at Market Rasen last time out, whilst stepping up in both trip and class.

He steps up to Class 3 today and tackles 2m 6.5f for the first time, but he has run well over 2m 6f in the past and the way he finished both of his last two races, he looked like he'd plenty left in the tank. He'll come here refreshed from a break of just over six weeks and runs off the same 129 mark as last time out and although this is his toughest task to date, I think he still has some progression left in him.

The likes of the wily old Benbane Head are likely to both have a say and also lengthen the odds of our selection, but I think that a 1pt win bet on Letsby Avenue at 7/2 BOG with Bet365 should be the trick to get us back on the winning path.

I wrote this on Monday evening, as there was no evening racing to "entertain" me. This meant that only bet365 and BetVictor had a market for this race, so I strongly suggest that you...

Click here for the latest betting on the 6.05 Stratford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,
just click here for more details.

The card for today's race is right here!