Posts

Stat of the Day, 8th May 2017

Saturday's Result :

2.05 Goodwood : Dubka @ 7/2 BOG 6th at 11/4 Tracked leaders, weakened 2f out

Monday's pick goes in the...

2.50 Stratford...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Yorkist11/2 BOG

Why?

This 9 yr old gelding was a winner in a Class 2 contest just after Christmas 2016 and since then hasn't won, but has been there or there abouts, finishing 344 in three efforts since, but it's important to note that those races were at Class 2, Gr 3 and Listed class respectively, so the drop to Class 3 should see him in a better light.

His trainer, Dan Skelton, has a good record with 7 to 9 yr old handicap chasers priced at 6/4 to 7/1 with 35 winners from 131 (23.2% SR) and profits of 18.5pts at an ROI of 12.2%. And in respect of today's race, those 131 runners are...

  • 34/147 (23.1%) from his male runners for 18.35pts (+12.5%)
  • 28/113 (24.8%) for 29.6pts (+26.2%) when ridden by Harry Skelton
  • 22/71 (312%) for 41.3pts (+58.2%) on Good ground
  • 10/49 (20.4%) for 8.13pts (+16.6%) at Class 3
  • and 2/10 (20%) for 2.55pts (+25.5%) here at Stratford.

Further confidence is gained by discovering that handicap chasers by Urban Ocean are 8/43 (18.6% SR) for 23.7pts (+55.1% ROI) since the start of 2015...

...giving...a 1pt win bet on Yorkist11/2 BOG which was on offer from Bet365, Betfair Sports, BetVictor & Paddy Power at 6.00pm on Sunday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.50 Stratford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Stat of the Day, 27th October 2016

Wednesday's Result :

3.30 Chelmsford : Unsuspected Girl @ 7/2 BOG 3rd at 9/4 (Slowly away, in rear, ridden and headway over 1f out, kept on inside final furlong)

Thursday's pick goes in the...

3.25 Stratford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Artifice Sivola at 4/1 BOG

Why?

He's better known as a chaser, but got off the mark over hurdles last time out and has an overall record of 2 wins from 4 over today's trip. He's 4/15 on good/good to soft ground and has won twice under today's jockey, Leighton Aspell and has 3 wins from 8 in fields of 7 runners or fewer.

He might well have been off the track for 191 days, but he did win at this time of year in 2014 after a lay-off of 177 days, also under Leighton Aspell and also his only other run in the month of October, so we does have a precedent.

He's trained by Lucy Wadham, whose NH runners competing over trips of 1m7.5f to 2m3f are 55/313 (17.06% SR) for 208.1pts (+66.5% ROI) profit since 2010, of which...

  • those racing at 15.5 to 16.5 furlongs are 44/241 (18.3%) for 124.8pts (+51.8%)
  • those running in non-handicap races are 33/186 (17.7%) for 189.6pts (+101.9%)
  • and those fulfilling both the above criteria are 25/147 (17%) for 116.7pts (+79.4%)

We can then take a closer look at those 147 non-handicappers racing over 1m7.5f to 2m0.5f and if we do that, we find that...

  • Leighton Aspell has 11 winners from 73 (15.1%) for 90.9pts (+124.6%)
  • runners in 2015/16 are 12/42 (28.6%) for 114.5pts (+272.5%)
  • and Leighton Aspell is 6/21 (28.6%) for 86.2pts (+410.3%) in 2015/16.

Artifice Sivola is also Lucy's only runner at the meeting and such solo representatives are 134/883 (15.2% SR) for 310.1pts (+35.1% ROI) since 2010, with the following of interest/relevance today...

  • those travelling just 45 to 115 miles from her Newmarket base are 59/336 (17.6%) for 160.5pts (+47.8%)
  • non-handicap races = 50/318 (15.7%) for 224.1pts (+70.5%)
  • over trips of 1m7.5f to 2m3f : 40/236 (17%) for 109pts (+46.2%)
  • ridden by Leighton Aspell : 33/216 (15.3%) for 58.7pts (+27.2%)
  • and Class 3 runners are 24/168 (14.3%) for 98.7pts (+58.7%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Artifice Sivola at 4/1 BOG, a price offered by Bet365 (my preference), Betbright, Betfair Sports, Hills and SkyBet at 5.30pm on Wednesday, but to see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.25 Stratford.

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 24th August 2016

Tuesday's Result :

6.20 Newbury : Alizoom @ 5/1 BOG 3rd at 9/2 (Took keen hold, held up in rear, headway 2f out, soon squeezed through chasing leading pair over 1f out, ridden and kept on same pace inside final furlong)

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

6.20 Stratford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Rossetti at 11/4 BOG

Why?

(i) The trainer...

Neil Mulholland is 7/41 (17.1% SR) for 197.8pts (+482.5% ROI) here at Stratford since 2013 (the high profits indicative of the difference between Betfair SP and ISP!), and of those 41 runners...

  • males are 6/31 (19.4%) for 190.7pts (+615.1%)
  • hurdlers are 5/25 (20%) for 194.3pts (+777.2%)
  • at this 2m 0.5f trip : 6/19 (31.6%) for 217.4pts (+124.2%)
  • and handicap hurdlers over today's 2m 0.5f trip are 3/5 (60% SR) for 6.21pts (+124.2%)

(ii) The jockey...

Noel Fehily also has a decent record here at this venue and since 2009, his figures show that he has achieved the following...

  • 10/56 (17.9%) for 22.5pts (+40.1%) in handicaps
  • 11/52 (21.2%) for 12.6pts (+24.2%) over hurdles
  • 6/26 (23.1%) for 24.8pts (+95.4%) in handicap hurdles
  • 6/18  (33.3%) for 32.8pts (+182.2%) in hcp hurdles over 2m 0.5f to 2m 3f
  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 19.4pts (+176.2%) in Class 3 hcp hurdles
  • and 4/9 (44.4%) for 21.4pts (+237.6%) in Class 3 hcp hurdles over 2m 0.5f to 2m 3f, including the success of Rossetti last time out.

(iii) And the horse?

Three wins from 19 in a reasonable but not earth shattering Flat career, before a break of almost two years, a change of yard and a reappearance three months ago as a hurdler.

A runner-up finish on his hurdling debut at Southwell has been followed by to more efforts to date, both here at Stratford, both over this trip and both were successful, initially at Class 4 and then a facile 11 lengths victory at Class 3 last time out, 27 days ago, when he really could have won by any margin

Of interest from that last win is the fact that the well beaten runner-up, only went down by half a length in a Class 2 race at Perth on Saturday off a mark of 125, which suggests that 134 might not be beyond our boy today.

All three of his NH runs have been in the hood he sports again today and Noel Fehily (1/1 on the horse) retains the ride from last time.

AND... since 2012, 5 to 9 yr old male handicap hurdlers with at least one prior course and distance win to their name and who were also winners LTO are 158 from 671 (23.6% SR) for 160.8pts (+24% ROI), including...

  • those last seen 11-30 days ago are 91/375 (24.3%) for 181pts (+48.3%)
  • those who won by 3 to 15 lengths LTO are 76/261 (29.1%) for 78.4pts (+30%)
  • Class 3 runners are 43/153 (28.1%) for 167.9pts (+109.7%)
  • and Class 3 runners who won by 3 to 15 lengths last time out, 11 to 30 days ago are 12 from 38 (31.6% SR) for 24.9pts (+65.6% ROI)

...pointing towards... a 1pt win bet on Rossetti at 11/4 BOG, from any of the half dozen or so firms all quoting that price at 7.35pm, but to see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 6.20 Stratford.

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 28th June 2016

Monday's Result :

5.25 Wolverhampton : Paladin @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 11/8 (On the rail and led inside final furlong, but like so many of our runners this month, was nailed late on and beaten by a quarter length after having been backed in to less than 46% of our advised odds!)

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

6.50 Stratford:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Pembroke House at 7/2 BOG

Why?

This 9yr old gelding is a very consistent sort over fences, having finished in the firat two home six times from 10 starts and his last six results are 12P222 and he should really be coming here off the back of a win last time out. Unfortunately he stumbled badly at the last, lost all momentum and went down by 2 lengths at Towcester four weeks ago. That said, there's no disgrace in getting beaten by a Kerry Lee chaser!

Class and going are fine today and he gets to go off the same mark as last time out, but (with no disrespect intended to James Banks) there has been a change of jockey, with Sam Twiston-Davies now taking over in the hope/expectation that he'll just eke a bit more of this one.

He's trained by Sarah-Jayne Davies, better known for Point to Point runners, but has also started to make a little bit of a name for herself under Rules over fences, especially in Class 4/5 handicap chases with horses priced at 2/1 to 15/2, where her runners are 11/45 (25% SR) for profits of 14.9pts (+33.1% ROI) over the last three and a half years or so.

With today's race in mind, those 45 chasers are...

  • 11/44 (25%) for 15.9pts (+36.2%) as males
  • 9/36 (25%) for 9.08pts (+25.2%) had a top 5 finish LTO
  • 6/19 (31.6%) for 16.6pts (+87.4%) last ran 16-90 days ago
  • and 4/8 (50%) for 10.38pts (+129.8%) on Soft ground

AND...horses fitting all four of the above are 3/4 (75%) for 7.84pts (+195.9%) with the loser finishing as a runner-up!

...so today's play is a 1pt win bet on Pembroke House at 7/2 BOG with Bet365, who led the way at 5.55pm, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering...

...click here for the betting on the 6.50 Stratford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Double Dutch, 17th October 2015

Double Dutch, 17th October 2015

A nice 17/1 double on Friday as both Maid of Tuscany and Point of Woods did the business for us and with Nebula Storm finishing second at Fakenham, those of you on the forecast landed a 14.5/1 bonus.

And it was almost the perfect DD day, but Bochart was a length adrift of finishing second at Wolverhampton, but two winners (inc our 700th) and two placers is excellent news from our 650th set of selections.

Friday's results were as follows:

Maid of Tuscany : WON at 5/1 (adv 7/2)
Nebula Storm : 2nd at 2/1 (adv 15/8)
The forecast paid £15.52 here
----------------------------------------------------
Point of Woods : WON at 7/4 (adv 2/1)
Bochart : 3rd at 15/2 (adv 6/1)

Results to date:
700 winning selections from 2506 = 27.93%
223 winning bets in 650 days = 34.31%

Stakes: 1299.00pts
Returns: 1406.02pts
P/L : +107.02pts (+8.24% ROI)

Your first 30 days for just £1

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Here are the last picks of the week...

1.40 Catterick :

After being outpaced on debut and finishing well down the field at Carlisle, Indian Pursuit (15/8 BOG) has finished third in each of his subsequent three starts, the latest of which was four weeks ago over this course and distance, when only beaten by a length and three quarters whilst staying on well from mid-division.

Both the winner, the runner-up and the 8th placed horse (who was 10L further back) have all reappeared and won since that day, suggesting that Indian Pursuit will go well again here, provided he handles the soft ground, although he has raced on good to soft over track and trip two starts ago.

The main rival on form, at least, would have to be the 9/4 BOG Dacoity, who has also finished third in his last/only two outings. He showed plenty of promise when beaten by less than a length at Pontefract over 5f two months ago, finishing a length ahead of Swirral Edge who was a 12/1 winner on nursery debut at Ayr nine days ago.

Dacoity then stepped up to today's 6f trip for his run at Nottingham, when third once again, but he ran well enough and coped with the soft ground. That experience of stepping up to this trip and also of running on soft will stand him in good stead and he represents a yard with a decent record at this venue.

*

1.45 Stratford :

Poetic Verse is both reliable and versatile, having won 6 races on the level (5 from 13 at 11.5/12 f), so she's unlikely to be done for pace here. She won over hurdles for the first time at Cartmel last September and won again (comfortably) at Market Rasen on her last effort over timber 11 weeks ago.

She's been back on the Flat to sharpen up since that run, beaten by just a length in a decent enough Class 3 handicap at Catterick over 1m4f and at 5/2 BOGPoetic Verse should just have enough to make the most of the 5lb she gets...

...from top weight and 9/2 BOG Bantam, who has taken well to hurdling this year, winning twice and finishing as a runner-up on three occasions, all from just six runs in 2015 (221412). She may well have been beaten at odds on last time around at Newton Abbot, but that was over 2m2.5f and was two furlongs further than she'd been before.

She led until two out that day, before running out of steam and the drop back to 2m is sure to be in her favour here, although it wouldn't be unfair to suggest Bantam is as high in the weights as you'd want her to be, but that is, of course, reflected in the price.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Indian Pursuit / Poetic Verse @ 9.08/1 (15/8 & 5/2 : Betfred, Stan James & Totesport)
Indian Pursuit / Bantam @ 14.84/1 (15/8 & 9/2 : Betway & Stan James)
Dacoity / Poetic Verse @ 10.38/1 (9/4 & 5/2 : Betfred & Totesport)
Dacoity / Bantam @ 16.88/1 (9/4 & 9/2 : Betway)

Double Dutch, 14th September 2015

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 14th September 2015

We were a length and a quarter away from landing an 18.25/1 double on Saturday, which would have rounded off a very good week for DD just perfectly.

That was the margin of defeat suffered in race 1 by This Is For You who, like most of the field and punters was surprised with the finish produced by the eventual winner, priced at 12/1.

Later, Adele defied a market drift from 5/2 to 9/2 to stay on well to win by a length at Musselburgh and whilst it was pleasing to end the week with a race winner, we came away empty handed.

Saturday's results were as follows:

This Is For You : 2nd at 2/1 (adv 5/2)
Ejaazah : 6th at 4/1 (adv 9/2)
----------------------------------------------------
Adele : WON at 9/2 (adv 5/2)
Maxwell : 6th at 11/5 (adv 7/2)

Results to date:
670 winning selections from 2397 = 27.95%
212 winning bets in 621 days = 34.149%

Your first 30 days for just £1

Stakes: 1241.50pts
Returns: 1342.69pts
P/L : +101.19pts (+8.15% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

We start the new week with these...

4.50 Stratford :

It has been over 32 months since Cousin Khee was last seen tackling an obstacle, doing all his running since on the flat and picking up four wins, suggesting he shouldn't be getting done for speed between the hurdles. Ground speed is obviously only part of the equation, but I'm fairly sure he'll have been extensively schooled by his trainer Hughie Morrison and could potentially be leniently treated here today.

He was third in a Class 3 hurdle at Aintree off a mark of 123, so the 118 allocated here is very workable and in Hughie Morrison, he is trained by a man who doesn't have that many NH runners, but is 7/24 for 27.7pts with handicap hurdlers priced at 10/1 or shorter since the start of 2010, making Cousin Khee of interest here at 3/1 BOG.

Shout It Aloud probably has as much chance of winning as the above runner, but is more attractively priced at 5/1 BOG and comes here with far fewer miles on the clock after just three runs in bumpers and three more over hurdles. He was third last time out when making his handicap bow at Newton Abbot a little over three weeks ago, despite having a relatively unsuccessful 7lb claimer in the saddle.

Since 2009, Tim Vaughan's hurdlers are 23/113 for 59.4pts here at Stratford with today's jockey Richard Johnson riding 13 of those winners from just 50 attempts with that resultant 26% strike rate yielding level stakles profits of 25.1pts (+50.2% ROI).

*

5.10 Wolverhampton :

A poor looking contest, where I'm relatively happy to dismiss the chances of most runners and the short(-ish!) priced 7/4 BOG favourite Cote D'Azur seems the one to beat. He was third on his handicap debut three weeks ago, when beaten by less than three lengths over a mile at Kempton and had run really well before fading in the final furlong.

The drop back to 7f should therefore suit him better and the runner-up has since won off a mark of 61 (our runner is off 56 here). His trainer Sir Mark Prescott's runners are 8/30 for 16.3pts in handicaps on the tapeta here with Luke Morris riding all 8 winners from 27 starts.

The tentative backup plan is the 7/1 BOG Fabulous Darling, who was a decent third on debut at Windsor six weeks ago, but hasn't sparkled in two runs since. She was possibly unsuited by the softer ground at Ascot last time out, but switched to this surface and up in trip for a handicap debut, she does at least look interesting off a mark of 60 reduced by her jockey's 5lb claim.

The jockey, Kieran Shoemark, is 7/16 for 17.9pts on 2/3 yr olds in Wolverhampton handicaps, whilst the yard is 19/74 for 95.3pts with runners aged 2 to 4 at odds of 5/1 to 10/1 in A/W handicaps over the last five seasons, giving us some hope of a run for our money here.

For the benefit of brevity, I've purposefully not expanded on the stats I've based the selections upon, but I'm always happy to deal with queries via the comments box below.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Cousin Khee / Cote D'Azur @ 9.31/1 (11/4 & 7/4 : Paddy Power)
Cousin Khee / Fabulous Darling @ 28.13/1 (11/4 & 13/2 : Hills)
Shout It Aloud / Cote D'Azur @ 15.50/1 (5/1 & 7/4 : Paddy)
Shout It Aloud / Fabulous Darling @ 41/1 (5/1 & 6/1 : Betfred, Paddy & Totesport)

Stat of the Day, 5th September 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 5th September 2015

We took 11/2 about Windy Citi at Kempton yesterday and I though we have stolen a point of more off the market, but she actually went off at that same price and matching the SP was probably the highlight of the pick!

She was held up well off (too far?) the pace and had plenty to do late on, but found little.

Final result? 6th of 9 at 11/2 and beaten by 7 lengths, a result I'll be seeking better of in Saturday's...

3.50 Stratford :

I'm back from my holiday now and from Monday, we'll be settling back into something more like the old routine, where I attempt to get at least the pick out to you the night before racing. Of course, following us on Facebook and/or Twitter is still the best way to know exactly when I've posted.

And a 3/1 BOG bet on Philip Hobbs' 9 yr old chaser Carrigmorna King, who will be ridden by Richard Johnson today.

The Hobbs' chasers have been in fine fine form of late with the last 25 runners (spread over 16 weeks, so no short purple patch!) producing 8 winners (32% SR) and 10.5pts profit at an ROI of 42%.

Of those 25 runners, there was a 6/21 (28.6% SR) record in handicaps generating 10pts (+47.5% ROI) profit, whilst Richard Johnson rode 6 winners from 17 (43.8% SR) for 14pts (+87.7% ROI) and there were 5 winners from the 8 Stratford (62.5% SR) runners, making a further 19.6pts (+244.9% ROI) profit.

In the last 16 weeks, Hobbs / Johnson / Stratford hcp chases = 4/7 (57.1% SR) for 15.1pts (+216.1% ROI) from a run that started with Carrigmorna King's win here over 2m4f on 17th May.

More longer-term, Philip Hobbs' chasers are 12/28 here at Stratford since the start of 2013, producing level stakes profits of 35pts (+125.1% ROI) with his handicappers winning 11 of 26 (42.3% SR) for 34.2pts (+131.6% ROI).

Richard Johnson's tally from those 28 chasers is 7 wins from 17 (41.2% SR) for 15.9pts (+93.5% ROI) and since the start of 2013, Hobbs / Johnson / Stratford hcp chases = 6/15 (40% SR) for 15.1pts (+100.5% ROI).

Carrigmorna King is only 3/17 over fences, but has two wins under Richard Johnson, two wins at this Class 3 level (2131 last four runs) and is 2 from 2 here at Stratford, having won over 2m4f and 2m 5.5f. He's never won at this trip over fences, but has a runner-up finish to his name and stays 3 miles comfortably enough, suggesting 2m 6.5f is within his reach on his favoured track.

He was admittedly well beaten last time out, but I'm willing to overlook that run, as he'd been stepped up to Listed Class for the Summer Plate and this Class 3 contest is far more suitable as he now drops back down in grade and since the start of 2012, Philip Hobbs' chasers dropping down in grade and running at odds of 6/4 to 12/1 are 28/118 (23.7% SR) for 55pts (+46.6% ROI).

Richard Johnson is 16/68 (23.5% SR) for 29.8pts (+43.8% ROI) on those class droppers, whilst those running here at Stratford are 3/6 (50% SR) for 6.6pts at an ROI of 110.4%.

That 3/1 BOG above is currently available from both BetVictor & Hills and I've gone with the latter, but to see your preferred firm's prices...

...click here for the betting on the 3.50 Stratford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 27th August 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 27th August 2015

Cloud Seven was a little disappointing at Kempton last night, as he looked pretty laboured in the closing stages, despite being kept in a decent position.

When he moved to the right with just over a furlong to run, I thought that was the point that he'd set off to win the race, but he was very one paced on the run in and eventually got beaten into 4th place, almost 8 lengths off the winner.

Despite a couple of reversals last week away from the Flat & A/W, I turn again to some National Hunt action (there's more of this than anything else today, strangely) and the race in question is the...

3.10 Stratford :

But before I give you the selection, a quick update on my schedule that you might find useful. As you know I'm away on holiday at present, but I've now a daily routine established. If SotD isn't now posted between 6.30pm & 7.00pm in the evening, it will appear between 8.30am & 9.00am on the day of the race.

Thursday's runner is Good of Luck, who is currently available at 3/1 BOG pretty much everywhere, is trainer Warren Greatrex's only runner here at Stratford today and jockey Gavin Sheehan's only booked ride of the day.

Trainer Warren is 17 from 50 (34% SR) for 16.5pts (+33% ROI) here at this track with an impressive 10 from 28 (35.7% SR) from hid hurdlers here that has generated 12.12pts profit (+43.3% ROI) to date. Jockey Gavin has ridden 4 of those hurdle winners from 16 attempts (25% SR) for 4.63pts (+28.9% ROI).

Good of Luck is 4 from 17 over hurdles which isn't a bad return, but more recently since returning from a 3 month break last year, he returned to action last July and has 3 wins and two places from 6 runs (133141) and he's 141 this year after an 8 month break from mid-September last year to mid-May 2015, so he's clearly not one who needs to be kept busy!

He's 1/1 at this track, acquired when Gavin Sheehan piloted him to a course and distance success last time out almost seven weeks ago. That took his record under Mr Sheehan to 4 from 9 and his record at 2m to 2m1f to 4/10. He has won on good ground in the past (inc. LTO) and also on soft ground, so conditions look ideal today.

It's also worth noting that since the start of 2008, handicap hurdlers who won last time out anywhere and are now running over a course and distance at which they have previously won, were winners again on 270 of 1398 (19.3% SR) occasions, producing level stakes profits of 184.6pts at an ROI of 13.25%.

Of those 1398 runners...

  • Class 3 competitors are 67/305 (22% SR) for 181.2pts (+59.6% ROI), of which...
  • those whose last run was 11 to 60 days ago are 52/226 (23% SR) for 181.6pts (+80.4% ROI), of which...
  • those running at the same course and distance as LTO are 41/171 (24% SR) for 145.4pts  (+85% ROI)

I took 3/1 BOG about Good of Luck from Bet365, but to get your preferred bookie's price...

...click here for the betting on the 3.10 Stratford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 20th August 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 20th August 2015

After a rare day off due to a non-runner on Tuesday, it was back to business with a bang at Ffos Las in the wet and the gloom on Wednesday afternoon, as Declan Bates did a magnificent job of getting Sir Billy Wright home with something to spare in the end.

At halfway of the 5f contest, it didn't look like it was going to be our day, but the pair seemed to glide across the sodden turf, making up loads of ground to pull clear to win by half a length, but relatively comfortably in the end.

Our 100/30 bet was reduced to 3/1 via the dreaded Rule 4 again, but we still smashed the 15/8 SP by some distance on the way to making it 2 from 2 for the week and we're now hat-trick seeking in the...

4.40 Stratford :

And a family affair in this 2m 6.5f, Class 4 handicap chase which is reported to be on good to firm ground, but I'd not be surprised to see the firm bit dropped tomorrow! That's the setting for the race in place, now onto the finer details!

The family in question are the Skeltons and their horse Vivacissimo is priced at 6/1 non-BOG (until 9.00am) with Ladbrokes and a generally available 11/2 BOG to take his own personal Stratford tally to 2 from 2.

In nine days time, it will be two years to the day that trainer Dan Skelton had his first NH handicap runner. Brother Harry was in the saddle aboard Gavroche Gauvain in a Class 5, 2m3f, handicap hurdle here at Stratford, but there was no fairytale beginning. The team was the last home of seven finishers, but thankfully they've never looked back since.

To date, Dan's NH handicappers are now 74/348 (21.3% SR) for 11.3pts profit at a rather modest 3.25% ROI, but blind profitability is always a great starting point for refinement, as we don't really want to back every runner anyway!

Simply avoiding odds on jollies and those beyond 12/1 gives us a far more palatable 69 winners from 300 (23% SR) and profits of 50.9pts at an ROI of 17%, which is more to my liking!

Of those 300, Harry Skelton is 51/223 (22.9% SR) for 58.7pts (+26.3% ROI) and Dan's handicappers are 6/20 (30% SR) here at Stratford for 5.6pts (+28% ROI).

A quick and easy micro for you from the above would be to back the Skelton brothers when partnered up in Class 4/5 handicap chases at evens to 12/1. In almost two years, that gives 18 winners from 58 (31% SR) and 20.8pts (+35.9% ROI) profit. That particular angle is 2/4 here at Stratford for 2.57pts (+64.2% ROI).

More generally, the boys are 82/366 (22.4% SR) for 69.1pts (+18.9% ROI) together with horses priced in that evens to 12/1 range. I mentioned earlier that they were 51/223 (22.9% SR) for 58.7pts (+26.3% ROI) in handicaps at those odds, but they're also 9/25 (36% SR) for 19.6pts (+78.4% ROI) together here at Stratford.

As a team together in hcp chases on this track at the same odds range, they are 3/9 (33.33% SR) for 5.86pts (+65.1% ROI) profit with those horses priced at 5/4 to 7/1 winning 3 of 6 (50% SR) for 8.86pts at an ROI of 147.6%.

Vivacissimo is 1 from 1 here on this course, albeit over hurdles just two starts ago, but has won over fences at a trip of 2m 4.5f and the way he has stayed in the past suggests he'll get today's trip well enough. He's also 1 from 1 under Harry Skelton and with Harry back amongst the winners with a 16/1 triumph at Worcester on Wednesday evening, confidence should be high.

I decided to take the 11/2 BOG about Vivacissimo from Coral, as I felt it was worth sacrifcing 8.3% of the Ladbrokes price to get the insurance against a drift, but please feel free to make your own decision on this one, after you...

...click here for the betting on the 4.40 Stratford

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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Double Dutch, 30th June 2015

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 30th June 2015

No double landed yesterday despite a 1-2 finish in our opener where the 10/3 to 9/2 drifter Another Royal just got up on the line to snatch victory from my first pick and 15/8 favorite Sleeping Apache. I also know that many of you like to do the forecasts etc and you were rewarded at the tune of 13.3/1.

This, of course, meant we'd a good stake going onto race 2, but the best we got was a 4th place finish from New Colours at 2/1, as he was headed with a furlong to run and ultimately beaten by 4 lengths.

But the day wasn't a wipeout for us, as Card High's withdrawl from that second race meant we still had a winning day, getting paid out on a 9/2 single from the Another Royal/Card High double. A 0.75pts profit on the day might not sound much at face vaule, but it does represent a 37.5% ROI and if replicated daily, I'd gladly settle for 4.5pts every 6 days!

Monday's results were as follows:

Another Royal : WON at 9/2 (adv 10/3)
Sleeping Apache : 2nd at 15/8 (adv 2/1)
The Exacta paid £14.30 here.
----------------------------------------------------
New Colours : 4th at 2/1 (adv 5/2)
Card High : non-runner (adv 11/4)

Results to date:
611 winning selections from 2150 = 28.42%
193 winning bets in 557 days = 34.65%

Your first 30 days for just £1

Stakes: 1113.50pts
Returns: 1228.89pts
P/L : +115.39pts (+10.36% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

June's last races for DD are...

3.15 Hamilton:

I've liked the way Kerrymerry has progressed this season having stepped up markedly in trip from four nondescript runs over 7f as a 2yr old. He retuirned to the fray after a 6-month break to run third at Beverley over 1m4f in May, twice as far as he'd gone in the past and then landed back to back handicaps at Lingfield at the start of this month, a 10f win on the A/W followed by an 11.5f success on turf there three days later, winning both fairly comfortably by two lengths each.

He was, however, folied in his hat-trick bid last time out as he was caught very late on over 1m4f at Newbury when tiring towards the finish. He had, nevertheless, run a big race, but went down as a runner-up, beaten by just half a length.

It's highly possible that a third run on 10 days was a step too far, so he's had the best part of three weeks to recover and he'll now try again in the knowledge that he beat Who Dares Wins by half alength in that last race and the latter was a 4 length winer at Wolverhampton yesterday. Despite needing a bit more today off 69, Kerrymerry still gets weight from all his rivals, thanks to his 14lb weight for age allowance and looks dangerous at 9/2 BOG.

If however, he finds one just too good again, it's highly likely that it'll be the 6/4 BOG favourite More Mischief, who is still unexposed after just three starts (unraced as a 2 yr old). She has finished 712 so far this season and won an 8.5f maiden on soft ground here at this track almost two months ago.

She was then second over 10.5 furlongs at Haydock on her handicap debut being far from disgraced in getting beat by just a length behind Mark Johnston's progressive Mythical City, who has since won both her subsequent outings, including a step up in class at Chester last Friday. If More Mischief continues to improve and runs like she did last time out, we could have a cracking finish on our hands.

*

8.00 Stratford:

Noble Friend has been in fine form of late, winning three of his last four outings and only beaten by a length and a half in the defeat. He has always seemed to be just doing enough to win whilst looking like the trip were just a little on the sharp side for him. That said, he was coasting home staying on well to win by 6 lengths last time out and I believe he'll do even better stepping up in trip today and I'd expect him to land this at 11/4 BOG.

The biggest danger is probably going to come from the consistent 13 yr old veteran Porters War. His last seen runs may well have been spread over a 19 month period, but there's a serious level of consistency about him. His finishes in that run read as 1221352. Ground conditions are in his favour, he prefers to go left handed and has won a couple of races over 2m4f in the past.

He was only beaten by half a length here last time out, with the next horse a further 17 lengths back and the winner from that race, Sporting Boy, has since steppeds up in class and won again. At 13, there's no guarantee of a repeat performance, but recent consistent history suggests another decent run and if things do qwuite go right for Noble Friend, I'd want to be on Porters War at 5/1 BOG with Bet365.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

More Mischief / Noble Friend @ 8.38/1 (6/4 & 11/4 : generally)
More Mischief/ Porters War @ 14/1 (6/4 & 5/1 : Bet365)
Kerrymerry / Noble Friend @ 17.75/1 (4/1 & 11/4 : generally)
Kerrymerry / Porters War @ 29/1 (4/1 & 5/1 : Bet365)

Stat of the Day, 30th June 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 30th June 2015

Rosenbaum was backed all day as though he just couldn't lose and come race-time our 7/2 BOG bet was looking very good value indeed as he was sent off at even money!

He was the beneficiary of yet another patient and well-timed ride, this time from William Buick, who took the initiative just inside the final furlong and ran on/pulled away to open up a 4 length gap by the time he hit the line to add another 3.5pts of SP-smashing profit to the kitty.

Last one now of what has been a tremendous month, the...

7.30 Stratford:

Which is a Class 4, handicap hurdle for 4yr olds and older. The trip is 2m 0.5f on good ground and Richard Johnson will carry the weight of Geegeez readers' expectations on board Charlie Longsdon's 4yr old gelding, Zarawi, who currently trades at 100/30 BOG in places.

Both Charlie and Richard are in decent form...

Charlie Longsdon has saddled up 2 winners from 6 in the last two weeks, whilst over the past 8 weeks, his hurdlers are 12/30 (40% SR) for 21.3pts (+71% ROI) profit. of which the handicappers are 8/19 (42.1% SR) for 23.5pts (+123.6% ROI).

Richard Johnson, for his part, has ridden 19 winners from 83 (22.9% SR) in the last month with his hurdlers priced at 5/1 and shorter winning 11 of 22 (50% SR) for 14.3pts (+65% ROI)

They also work well together...

Since the start of 2011. the partnership has 25 winners from 87 (28.7% SR) for 32.4pts (+37.3% ROI), from which their hurdlers have won 17 of 49 (34.7% SR) for 8.4pts (+17.2% ROI) with those priced at 5/1 and shorter having a record of 17/32 (53.1% SR) for 25.4pts (+79.5% ROI).

Charlie's horses tend to go well here...

With 21 winners from 101 runners, the resultant 20.8% stable strike rate has generated level stakes profits of 38.4pts at an ROI of 37.6% with the hurdlers contributing 11 wins from 49 (22.5% SR) for 25.1pts (+51.2% ROI).

And since 2009, his handicap hurdlers are 8/26 (30.8% SR) for 23.2pts (+89.4% ROI) here.

Zarawi was a winner last time out, 3 weeks ago at Fontwell...

And Charlie Longsdon's handicap hurdlers who were winners last time out and then raced again at odds of 5/1 and shorter within a month of that win, went on to "double up" on 11 of 24 (45.8% SR) occasions producing profits of 8.24pts (+34.3% ROI), whilst since the start of 2013, those figures improve to 7 wins from 14 (50% SR) for 7.17pts (+51.2% ROI).

It was a novice hurdle that he won LTO...

And male handicap hurdlers who were winners of a Novice hurdle last time out, 16 to 25 days ago are 84/391 (21.5% SR) for 157.3pts (+40.2% ROI) since 2008 and those sent off at 11/8 to 9/1 are 76/288 (26.4% SR) for 156.5pts (+54.3% ROI)

And there's probably enough data there to back up the selection. But hang on, let's throw another micro system at it for good measure, shall we? 😀

OK, it was actually a handicap novice hurdle that he won by 9 lengths LTO...

And since the start of 2012, male handicap hurdlers who were winners of a handicap hurdle by more than 4 lengths LTO and race again within 2 months of that win, went on to win again on 237 of 934 (25.4% SR) reappearances, generating 179.3pts profit at an ROI of 19.2% with those priced at Evens to 11/1 winning 201 of 775 (25.9% SR) for 197.9pts (+25.5% ROI), from which those running here at Stratford are 7/17 (41.2% SR) for 27.3pts (+160.7% ROI).

Zarawi, for his part...

...has adapted to handicap hurdling really well, finishing 4171 in four outings to date and in those four runs, he has won over 2m and also over 2m 1.5f, so the trip should be fine here, he's 171 on good ground and also 171 when priced below 4/1. He's 1/1 under Richard Johnson and 1/1 at this Class 4 level and 2 from 2 in fields of 7 or fewer runners, whilst he has finished 411 when racing within 16 to 30 of his last run.

All in all, conditions look ideal for Zarawi here and I'm more than happy to place June's last bet on him at 100/30 BOG with Bet365. Or if you'd prefer to use BetVictor, then they're also offering the same price, whilst the rest of the market can be seen by...

...clicking here for the betting on the 7.30 Stratford

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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Double Dutch, 16th June 2015

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 16th June 2015

After the euphoria of ending last week with a 36.5/1 wining double, it didn't take long for me to be brought back to earth with a bump.

3rd and 5th in a 5-horse race was followed by a non-runner and the last horse home in a 4-runner contest. An awful way to start the week and not one worth dwelling on, if truth be told.

Monday's results were as follows:

Shady Lane : 3rd at 15/8 (adv 7/4)
Bella : 5th at 5/2 (adv 15/8)
----------------------------------------------------
Uptight : 4th at 6/4 (adv 4/1)
Just Us Two : N/R (adv 7/4)

Results to date:
597 winning selections from 2104 = 28.37%
188 winning bets in 545 days = 34.50%

Stakes: 1089.50pts
Returns: 1195.67pts

Your first 30 days for just £1

P/L : +106.17pts (+9.74% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

I'm expecting better from these on Tuesday...

3.20 Stratford:

Sail And Return has won three times from just six efforts here at Stratford in the past, albeit over hurdles, but he did show that there's plenty of life left in the old boy with a 4.5 length win over fences at Southwell a fortnight ago.

He's fully at home round these parts and the good ground is perfect for this 11 yr old, who will readily deal with the extra two furlongs here (has has won twice round here over 3m3f after all!) and Sail And Return looks the pick of a fairly mediocre bunch at 7/2 BOG.

In mid-April, Owen Glendower returned to action after a 16 month absence from the track and was in the process of running a big race before falling 3 out. He followed that up with a victory in a Hunters Chase at Uttoxeter three weeks later before running a decent second at Bangor next/last time out.

He's a former course winner (over hurdles) who is 2 from 2 in this grade and is 5 from 14 in fields of 11 or fewer runners and off a mark of 117 is still considerably lower than before he took the lengthy break, making Owen Glendower of serious interest at 4/1 BOG.

*

4.45 Thirsk:

The good to firm ground here isn't ideal for any of the runners in this contest, so it's a fairly level playing field in that respect. The one I like most despite the going conditions is Richard Fahey's filly Emerahldz, currently a 5/2 BOG chance aiming to be come Mr Fahey's third winner of this race in the last 6 years.

Up to the end of last season, she had won 5 of 10 handicap outings and was placed on four other occasions, before taking 7 months off. She returned to action at York at the end of May and acquitted herself really well, beaten by less than 2.5 lengths. She's entitled to have needed the outing and with that run under her belt, Emerahldz would be my pick here.

The lightly raced Sea The Skies (by Sea The Stars) has shown some ability in his five starts to date finishing 31218 so far. His last win came at Leicester off the back of almost 22 months off the track and his subsequent 6 lengths defeat at Newmarket might have had something to do with the bounce factor.

Sea The Stars progeny are profitable to follow blindly beyond at 1m3f and beyond, so it'll be good to see how he fares on his first crack at a mile and a half today. There's not much form to take from his last run, but he was ahead of Donny Rover at HQ last time out and the latter was a winner at York last Friday, so perhaps an 11/4 BOG wager on Sea The Skies might prove a good move.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Sail And Return / Emerahldz @ 14.75/1 (7/2 & 5/2 : Coral, Hills & Stan James)
Sail And Return / Sea The Skies @ 15.88/1 (7/2 & 11/4 : Boylesports, Seanie Mac & Stan James)
Owen Glendower / Emerahldz @ 16.50/1 (4/1 & 5/2 : Coral, Hills & Stan James)
Owen Glendower / Sea The Skies @ 17.75/1 (4/1 & 11/4 : Boylesports, Seanie Mac & Stan James)

Stat of the Day, 30th May 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 30th May 2015

I suggested that yesterday's race at Brighton might not be the strongest and when a horse who is 0/15 on turf wins relatively comfortably, that says it all.

Mind you, Tilstarr had a job to do and we'd highlighted why we thought she'd run well and there's no denying she ran well. No luck involved, she was the best on the day, winning by the best part of two lengths at the same 11/4 price we'd advised.

It was a most welcome return to the winning enclosure for both Tilstarr and SotD alike and I now turn to the last pick of the week/month (even I take Sundays off!), which looks a decent price in the...

7.55 Stratford:

Where, despite there being a fairly large field, 7/1 BOG about Claret Cloak might prove generous just after 8'0'clock.

He's trained by Emma Lavelle...

...who, since 2008 is 9/60 (15% SR) for 18.5pts (+30.9% ROI) here at Stratford and in handicaps, she's 7/42 (16.7% SR) for 22.7pts (+54% ROI), whilst in the last five years her handicap hurdlers are 3/8 (37.5% SR) for 12.2pts (+152.4% ROI) on this track, of which the 5/2 to 10/1 runners are 3/6 (50% SR) for 14.2pts (+236.6% ROI).

Today's jockey is Gavin Sheehan...

...who is no mug and is riding well enough (4/22 in the last fortnight) to instil confidence. He's 11/70 (15.7% SR) on Emma's horses and is most profitable on her hurdlers priced below 10/1, where he has won 7 of 28 (25% SR) races for profits of 14.5pts at an ROI of 51.7%.

He also rides well here...

...to the tune of 5 winners from 19 (26.3% SR) for 3.2pts (+16.8% ROI) on horses priced below 10/1 in the last 12 months.

So what of Claret Cloak?

Well, he hasn't competed over hurdles for 777 days, but that last run was a course and distance win here at Stratford, before embarking on a chasing career. He comes here in good nick, having finished second in a Listed chase just three starts ago off a mark of 147 and won a Class 2 Chase last time out (26 days ago) off 151.

He now reverts to hurdles off what looks a lenient 146 to me, especially considering he has 3 wins and a placed finish from his seven runs over timber in the past. He finished third in a Listed hurdle and was considered good enough to contest two grade 3 hurdles. If adjusting immediately, he could well be thrown in, despite bearing top weight.

Conditons seem to be in his general favour, he's 1/1 here at Stratford (that last hurdles outing over C&D), he's 4 from 9 on good ground and 4 from 6 at today's trip. He has won twice and finished runner-up once in three runs carrying 11-12 and he has won 4 of 9 when racing within 21 to 40 days of his last outing (3/4 within 25 to 30 days!)

At first glance, it could look like I'm tilting at windmills trying to end the month with a bang (no booms at geegeez!), but I assure you that's not the case and it never will be. We don't advocate chasing losses at any time.

I genuinely like his chances and I'd expect him to shorten to a more familiar price as the day goes on, so I suggest getting on Claret Cloak at 7/1 BOG with Bet365 (or BetVictor if you prefer) whilst you can and when that goes 6/1 BOG is still decent, so be sure to check all the bookies by...

...clicking here for the betting on the 7.55 Stratford

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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Double Dutch, 9th March 2015

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 9th March 2015

For a long time, Saturday looked like being a good day for us, starting with a 1-2 finish up at Ayr. Sir Vinski led Aniknam home by four lengths and with their nearest challenger a good 10 lengths further back, it was a decent result to get a winner 2/1 and the bonus of a £6.20 forecast.

We had a couple of hours to wait until the well-backed Mister Grez appeared at Chepstow and he ran a pretty good race, if truth be told. Unfortunately, Oscar Hill was able to defy top weight and make all, seeing our runner off by 8 lengths in the end.

Saturday's results were as follows:

Sir Vinski : WON at 2/1 (adv 15/8)
Aniknam : 2nd at 2/1 (adv 11/4)
The forecast/exacta was worth 5.2/1 here
------------------------------------------
Mister Grez : 2nd at 13/8 (adv 2/1)
Whispering Harry : u/p at 9/4 (adv 7/2)

Results to date:
508 winning selections from 1783 = 28.49%
159 winning bets in 462 days = 34.42%

Stakes: 923.50pts
Returns: 1019.90pts

Your first 30 days for just £1

P/L : +96.40pts (+10.44% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Cheltenham is almost upon, but first we've to try to find a couple of winners on a typical Mediocre March Monday (I doubt racing's marketing people will want to borrow that slogan).

The best NH horses are either injured or going to Cheltenham, so with no A/W racing at all to look at, we're stuck with those deemed not good enough for Chelts today...

2.40 Stratford:

Rear Admiral has been placed twice from three efforts over fences to date and looked set to win at Musselburgh last time out, but for a tired error at the last which contributed to a 1.5 length defeat to the progressive hat-trick completing Present Lodger. His tendency to jump left caused the problem last time out and the switch to a left handed track and a drop in trip should keep him in the hunt at 13/8 BOG.

The biggest danger should come from the 7/2 BOG Midnight Chorister. This son of Midnight Legend was a winner on his chasing debut and ran well at Leicester last time out, finishing third despite conceding plenty of weight all round.

He had Artifice Sivola almost two lengths behind him in fourth place that day and the latter's subsequent 20 length victory at Fakenham last Monday was pretty interesting. This looks a weaker affair than his last effort and if he can repeat that same level of performance today, then he could well be the one.

*

3.30 Plumpton:

Sportsreport has finished 131 in his last three outings over fences and at 15/8 BOG, looks the likeliest to succeed here today. He's up 9lbs for his latest, facile 10L victory, but his jockey will take a useful 3lbs of that rise off his back. And despite this being his 12th start over fences, I'm not entirely convinced that there isn't more to come from this horse.

The truth is that he hasn't had much to beat of late and today's tougher challenge might well bring about a little more improvement from Sportsreport, which he might need if Noble Friend responds favourably the first-time fitting of a hood. He ran very creditably to finish third and over course and distance six weeks ago off a mark some 8lbs higher than today.

He has since competed in a much stringer event at Sandown and although fairly well beaten that day, a couple of late errors made the defeat look worse than it actually was and today's drop in class might be all that's needed for a debut win at 3/1 BOG.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Rear Admiral / Sportsreport @ 6.19/1 (6/4 & 15/8 : Bet Victor & Hills)
Rear Admiral / Noble Friend @ 9.50/1 (13/8 & 3/1 : Paddy Power)
Midnight Chorister / Sportsreport @ 11.94/1 (7/2 & 15/8 : Hills & SkyBet)
Midnight Chorister / Noble Friend @ 15.88/1 (7/2 & 11/4 : Boylesports, Hills & SkyBet)

Double Dutch, 25th October 2014

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 25th October 2014

There was almost an air of inevitability hanging over us yesterday as we once again surfaced empty handed with another winner/runner-up combo. I really liked Wiesentraum at Fakenham yesterday, so much so that he was one of main bets of the day and he duly obliged for us, winning comfortably by six lengths despite being eased right down after the last fence.

Unfortunately that excellent run counted for nothing in regards to the double, as just 20 minutes earlier Vegas Rebel just failed by a neck to catch the leader after coming from well off the pace in the final furlong and would most likely have got his nose in front 20 yards further on.

However, the bookies are reluctant to pay out on what ifs and maybes, so it's another 2pts lost, I'm afraid!

Friday's results were as follows:

Vegas Rebel: 2nd at 6/4 (adv 3/1)
St Brelades Bay: u/p at 5/1 (adv 5/2)
------------------------------------------
Wiesentraum: won at 9/4 (adv 5/2)
Teak: 3rd at 5/4 (adv 2/1)

Your first 30 days for just £1

Results to date:
383 winning selections from 1352 = 28.33%
122 winning bets in 352 days = 34.66%

Stakes: 703.50pts
Returns: 741.46pts

P/L : +37.96pts (+5.40% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Last chance of the week to break this 1-2 sequence...

2.15 Stratford:

Red Seventy looks the best treated here off 116 and although he hasn't been in top form of late, did show some signs of a recovery when not disgraced in finishing 6th of 7 over course and distance here back in September. That run was better than the bare result looks for despite hitting the last hurdle quite hard and losing some ground, he was beaten by just over 5 lengths by the eventual winner.

That was a Class 2 contest and Roman Flight  (who finished 3rd, 4 lengths ahead of Red Seventy) has since won twice at Class 3 level, including a nice win yesterday. This represents a major drop in quality down to Class5 and could be just the race to get Red Seventy winning again at 11/4 BOG.

The biggest obstacle barring his return to winning ways will be the current 6/4 BOG favourite Hawdyerwheesht, who comes here off the back of a win at Chepstow, albeit in a similar standard of seller. Hawdyerwheesht has been very consistent since switching to hurdles, enjoys the current ground conditions and as n ex-Flat horse, won't mind the drop back in trip, which should allow him to demonstrate his ground speed to better effect.

*

3.50 Doncaster:

Aidan O'Brien has trained the winner of this race 7 times in the last 16 years and three times in the last five and will fancy his chances with Jacobean who currently trades at 100/30 BOG. This is, of course, major step up in quality to what he faced on debut, but he certainly caught the eye with a fast finish at the Curragh just 13 days ago. You know he's going to improve and the way he finished suggested that the move to a mile would also play to his strengths. Jacobean was runner-up on debut that day and I fear he might suffer the same fate today behind...

...Elm Park, who is surely the one to beat at 2/1 BOG. He comes here on the back of a hat-trick of wins, including success at Listed level and a Group 2 win last time out in the Royal Lodge Stakes four weeks ago. It has been said that it wasn't the best renewal of that particular race, but Elm Park could only beat what was in front of him and despite being outpaced in the midsection of the race, stayed on well to win by a length and that run is probably the best piece of form on display here.

4 x 0.5pt doubles as follows:

Hawdyerwheesht / Elm Park @ 6.50/1 (6/4 & 2/1 : SkyBet)
Hawdyerwheesht / Jacobean @ 9.83/1 (6/4 & 10/3 : Paddy Power)
Red Seventy / Elm Park @ 10.25/1 (11/4 & 2/1 : Bet365, BetVictor & SkyBet)
Red Seventy/ Jacobean @ 15.25/1 (11/4 & 10/3 : Bet365)