Double Dutch, 30th April 2015

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 30th April 2015

SP winners at 11/8 and 5/4 combining to make a double at 4.34/1 barely cover our stakes and won't help us progress much. Thankfully, taking the morning BOG offers of 7/4 & 9/4 meant we got paid out at 7.94/1 and whilst this won't make us rich, it's 183% of SP and a reminder of how important the BOG prices are.

For the record, Pleasant Valley strolled home by 9 lengths, having made all and was eased right down late on, before Orlando Rogue completed the double with a more workmanlike 1.25 length success. He took the lead inside the final furlong and from that point, there was only going to be one winner.

Wednesday's results were as follows:

Pleasant Valley: WON at 11/8 (adv 7/4)
Asyad: 3rd at 11/4 (adv 15/8)
Orlando Rogue: WON at 5/4 (adv 9/4)
Doubly Clever: 4th at 5/1 (adv 3/1)

Results to date:
561 winning selections from 1956 = 28.68%
176 winning bets in 507 days = 34.71%

Stakes: 1013.50pts
Returns: 1114.54pts

Your first 30 days for just £1

P/L : +101.04pts (+9.97% ROI)


Thursday is our last shot of the month, so here goes...

2.45 Sedgefield:

It's probably best to side with the two LTO winners for this one, despite there being three former C&D winners amongst their rivals.

Classinaglass is lightly raced for an 8yr old, but has won 2 of his starts over fences and after knocking on the door with three third placed finishes, was a winner at Carlisle eight weeks under under the talented Harry Bannister, who's back in the saddle and claiming 5lbs here today. Harry was on board for that win last time out and a 4lb rise looks more than fair.

The official margin of that last win was just half a length, but the truth is that he was always just doing enough and looked to have plenty left if needed. The slight step up in trip is no issue, he stays a mile further than this and the better ground should also help him here today, where he is currently priced at 7/2 BOG.

But the one he'll need to beat is Donald McCain's French import Abricot de L'oasis, whose overall 2/10 record doesn't make him an obvious choice, but closer inspection shows he's 2/2 over fences, having won over 2m2f on his last run in France almost a year ago and then again at Carlisle over 2m3f just over a fortnight ago.

He had five losing runs over hurdles in between those victories and although second on his last effort over hurdles, looks a far better prospect over the bigger obstacles. He did tend to jump to the left last time out, suggesting that the switch to a left handed track would help him here, where he can be backed at 11/4 BOG with Betfair.


3.35 Lingfield:

Sugar Boy was far from disgraced in a 5 length defeat at Newbury a fortnight ago, when he finished 4th of 12 in a Class 2 contest on his handicap debut. This represents a substantial drop in class today and prior to that run at Newbury, he had won a maiden over this trip at Wolverhampton. He really looks a better prospect this year as opposed to his runs as a 2yr old and with the Gosden yard in such fine form (7/19 in the last week alone), they could have another winner here at 5/2 BOG.

However the presence of 9/2 BOG (looks attractively long to me) Mehronissa means the Boy won't have it all his own way. She may well have only had the one start 251 days ago, but she won first time up and was quite impressive in doing so at Newmarket. She was slow in the early stages, but once the penny dropped, she fairly flew home to win by a length and a quarter.

The runner-up has since finished second (beaten by a length) on his only other run, whilst the horses in 3rd, 4th and 5th have all won with the 6th placed horse being a runner-up by a short head, so that Newmarket race looks to be a warm one and if the form holds out, then Mehronissa could be a winner at a nice price today.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Abricot de L'oasis / Sugar Boy @ 12.13/1 (11/4 & 5/2 : Betfair Sportsbook)
Abricot de L'oasis / Mehronissa @ 18.25/1 (5/2 & 9/2 : Coral & Hills)
Classinaglass / Sugar Boy @ 14.75/1 (7/2 & 5/2 : generally)
Classinaglass / Mehronissa @ 23.75/1 (7/2 & 9/2 : generally)

Daily Dabble, 29th June 2013

Daily Dabble: 29/06/13

Daily Dabble: 29/06/13

Daily Dabble, 29th June 2013

We were a couple of lengths shy of a payout yesterday after Enriching's third placed finish at 11/2 was followed by Spellbind missing out by those two lengths as she could only finish 6th of 9 at 4/1.

In a very busy day of racing today, I'm going to make you wait until the evening for today's runners which start with the...

6.30 Curragh

Whilst undoubtedly all eyes will be on the hot-pot, Ruler of The World (who we selected here on DD for the Derby), I'm siding with Sugar Boy today, who I feel offers great value for his current 10/1 odds. He beat both Libertarian and Galileo Rock in the Classic Trial at Sandown in April and there should be more to come from him stepping up in trip. He hasn't run since that day, with his yard keeping him fit and fresh for a crack at this one today. I think  he's the "best of the rest" and if the favourite fails to shine, we could very well be picking up the pieces at a decent price.

8.15 Doncaster

Rhagori Aur was a pretty useful 2yr old last season, winning three times and closing out the season with back to back victories. She won off today's mark at Wolverhampton on her last race of the season before a six month break. She has, admittedly, not quite been back to that level of performance in this season's three starts, although she ran really well when finishing third at Ripon last time out, despite being badly hampered on the run-in. A slight drop in trip allied to a drop in class make her a viable prospect at odds of up to 8/1 today.

Today's double pays 87/1 BOG today with Boylesports, with the place element 15/2 or so (7.4/1 if you want to be precise!).

Back Sugar Boy & Rhagori Aur in an each way double with Boylesports, the win part paying 87/1 (Best Odds Guaranteed)

***PS Don't forget, you can find all today's racecards right here!***