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Stat of the Day, 4th October 2016

Monday's Result :

4.10 Southwell : Gaelic Myth @ 100/30 BOG PU at 5/2 (Jumped right, but led until going wrong and being quickly pulled up before 8th)

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

5.10 Brighton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Virile at 9/2 non-BOG or 4/1 BOG

Why?

Since the start of the 2013 campaign, Sylvester Kirk's runners are 10/53 (18.9% SR) for 18.9pts (+35.7% ROI) here at Brighton, of which...

  • those who last ran 4 to 45 days ago are 10/43 (23.3%) for 28.9pts (+67.3%)
  • males are 7/29 (24.1%) for 31.6pts (+109%)
  • 5 yr olds are 3/8 (37.5%) for 16.16pts (+202%)
  • and under jockey Mitch Godwin : 2/3 (66.7%) for 15.82pts (+527.2%)

And fitting the above bill today is Virile, a 5yr old gelding who has two wins and a place to his name from his last outings, including a course and distance win here at Brighton when last seen just five days ago. He's up 6lbs for than win, but his jockey's 5lb claim negates most of that and he has won with today's rider in the past.

Virile has three career wins to date, all at Class 6, all in the August-October period, all going left handed, all wearing blinkers and all priced at 5/1 or shorter. Two of his wins have come after a break of less than a week and he also has two wins at this 6f trip, two wins wearing a tongue tie and he's 1 from 1 here at this venue.

Virile/ Class 6 / August-October / Left handed / Blinkers / 5-1 max = 3/6 (50% SR) for 3.3pts (+55% ROI), from which

  • tongue tie : 2/4 (50%) for 3.27pts (+81.75%)
  • over 6f : 2/3 (66/7%) for 4.27pts (+142.3%)
  • 2-5 dslr : 2/3 (66.7%) for 0.96pts (+32%)

Plus he also fits another of my stock of microsystems, which isn't as complicated in practice as it looks in print, but basically...

UK / Flat / 2011-16 / Evens to 5-1 / OR : same or up to 7lbs hiher than LTO / Same Class or up 1 level / Same trip or up by 0.5f or down by up to 1.5f / at least 1 previous win at the distance / Won LTO 1-5 dslr (and breathe!)

Such horses are 86/237 (36.3% SR) for 82.1pts (+34.6% ROI) and with today's contest in consideration, those 237 runners include the following data...

  • handicaps : 83/230 (36.1%) for 80.2pts (+34.9%)
  • same trip as LTO : 63/189 (33.3%) for 42.3pts (+22.4%)
  • up 6lbs from LTO : 60/173 (34.7%) for 43.4pts (+25.1%)
  • same class as LTO : 59/155 (38.1%) for 57.8pts (+37.3%)
  • at Class 6 : 29/74 (39.2%) for 23.1pts (+31.2%)
  • here at Brighton : 5/9 (55.6%) for 5.76pts (+64%)

AND...hcps / up 6lbs / same class & trip as LTO = 31/89 (34.8% SR) for 18.4pts at an ROI of 20.6%, from which Class 6 runners are 17/43 (39.5%) for 13.1pts (+30.5%) and those who were C&D winners LTO are 5/9 (55.6%) for 9.48pts (+105.3%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Virile at 9/2 from Betway, who are non-BOG until morning or 4/1 BOG, which was offered by both Betfair Sports and SkyBet at 5.50pm on Monnday, but to see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.10 Brighton.

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 18th January 2016

Saturday's Result :

2.40 Wetherby : Vendor @ 9/2 BOG 5th at 5/1 (Tracked leaders, led before 2 out, headed last, no extra and lost 2nd place last 100 yards)

Monday's runner goes in the...

4.00 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Winged Dancer @ 5/2 BOG

Why?

The yard has been showing signs of improved form of late with two winners from eight in the last fortnight, of which they've had one winner from thier two here at Wolverhampton, which has been a pretty happy hunting ground for Sylvester Kirk over the years.

In fact, since the start of 2012, the Kirk runners are 24/206 (11.7% SR) for level stakes profits of 46.8pts (+22.7% ROI), of which...

  • those running 6 to 25 days since their last outing are 18/133 (13.5% SR) for 92.6pts (+69.6% ROI)
  • males are 19/117 (16.2% SR) for 59.3pts (+50.7% ROI)
  • LTO winners are 6/14 (42.9% SR) for 57.3pts (+409% ROI)

Males who won LTO 6 to 25 days ago are 4/6 (66.7% SR) for 43.4pts (+723.3% ROI)

As you've probably gathered, Winged Dancer was a winner last time, a 3.75 length success at Kempton a fortnight ago, which came after finishes of 0064, making him a "return to form" horse of interest today, based on the following criteria...

...since the start of 2009 in Wolverhampton handicaps at odds of 10/11 to 7/1, horses running 1 to 30 days after a win LTO that had been preceded by three or more consecutive unplaced efforts...

Such horses are 120/458 (26.2% SR) for 89.7pts (+19.6% ROI), from which...

  • those running 6 to 15 days since that last run/win are 64/242 (26.5% SR) for 55.1pts (+22.8% ROI)
  • class 5 races : 36/134 (26.9% SR) for 26.7pts (+19.9% ROI)
  • over 8.5f here : 27/87 (31% SR) for 26pts (+29.9% ROI)

And my recommended bet, based on my data and prices available at 8.10pm is...

A 1pt win bet on Winged Dancer and that's at 5/2 BOG with either Bet365 or BetVictor. To see the prices from all the other firms...

...click here for the betting on the 4.00 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 22nd July 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 22nd July 2015

A couple of non-runners eroded Shipyard's 3/1 price by 15% at Musselburgh on Tuesday, but even at 2.55/1 he looked terrific value for money, as his SP was eventually 11/8.

Even his pre-race antics didn't affect his price as he refused to go down the 5f straight to the start, choosing to take the scenic route over the round course. The race itself was a different matter. He was kept in a good position just off the lead by Andrew Mullen and when it was time to go, he went.

He stayed on well to put clear daylight between himself and the pack and this horse will win better and longer races than this in the future. It's always nice to spot one like that and nicer still to get 185% of SP about him!

A/W action awaits us on Wednesday in the...

4.20 Lingfield :

Where Sylvester Kirk's 3 yr old Magical Daze is currently a 7/2 BOG shot to land this Class 5, 6 furlong handicap.

And since 2008, Mr Kirk's A/W handicappers priced in the 2/1 to 8/1 region are 55/299 (18.4% SR) for 48.3pts (+16.2% ROI) with his three year olds winning 35 of 151 (23.2% SR) for 65pts (+43% ROI) and those three year olds running in open age (3yo+) handicaps are 12/48 (25% SR) for 20.6pts profit also at an ROI of 43%.

Sylvester's runners over 5 to 6 furlongs also do well in A/W handicaps with a record of 23 wins from 79 (29.1% SR) for 52.5pts (+66.5% ROI).

Magical Daze overcame a very wide draw to win by the best part of three lengths at Kempton last time out four weeks ago, but ran on strongly at the finish, suggesting she's more to give. She's up in weight for that win, of course but does have a far better draw to help her today. She's drawn in two and with the horse in stall 1 a usual slow starter, I'd expect our runner to grab the rail and attempt to be at the head of affairs, if not making all.

She's by Showcasing, whose offspring are 73/426 (17.1% SR) todate, generating 241.6pts (+56.7% ROI) of level stakes profits, of which his 5/6 furlong runners are 57/326 (17.5% SR) for 180.4pts (+55.3% ROI) and hois A/W runners are 21/97 (21.7% SR) for 96.1pts (+99% ROI).

Showcasing's offspring running over 5 to 6 furlongs on the All-Weather are 13/60 (21.7% SR) for 98.5pts (+164.2% ROI) and I'm expecting Magical Daze to give a goods account of herself here today.

I've backed her at 7/2 BOG with Coral, a price available in at least 5 other locations, so please...

...click here for the betting on the 4.20 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

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