Posts

Stat of the Day, 19th March 2019

Monday's pick was...

3.05 Southwell : Darlyn @ 7/2 BOG WON at 11/4 (Chased leaders, went 2nd 4 out, led before 2 out, pressed last, found extra run-in, driven out to win by a length)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

4.00 Taunton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Oxwich Bay 4/1 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 4, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m½f on Soft worth £5133 to the winner... 

Why?

This 7 yr old gelding bears top weight here today, conceding at least 7lbs to each of his rivals despite a fairly poor run of form over the past 12 months. In fairness most of that run of form has been over the larger obstacles, but he did revert to hurdling (considered good enough to run at Gr3 less than a year ago!) for his latest run 23 days ago when a reasonable fourth at a higher grade than this and on ground faster than he'd ever run on before.

A drop in class allied to softer conditions underfoot should see him in a better light as he seeks to improve upon his trainer's already decent record at this venue. Putting that into numbers, we see that trainer Evan Williams' handicappers are 16 from 96 (16.6% SR) for 31.5pts (+32.8% ROI) here at Taunton since 2013, with the following of relevance today...

  • males are 16/90 (17.8%) for 37.5pts (+41.6%)
  • hurdlers are 10/55 (18.2%) for 45.7pts (+83%)
  • at 2m to 2m1f : 8/38 (21.1%) for 39.62pts (+104.3%)
  • at odds of 2/1 to 6/1 : 10/37 (27%) for 15.16pts (+41%)
  • on Soft ground : 5/27 (18.5%) for 6.62pts (+24.5%)
  • and 7 yr olds are 4/18 922.2%) for 23.7pts (+131.9%)

Now, the fact he concedes weight all round could be seen as a negative by some people, but you might (or might not!) find it interesting that since the start of 2014 in UK Class 4 handicap hurdle contests, top-rated (OR) 5 to 9 yr olds carrying a race top-weight of 11-13 to 12-07 (after all claims considered) are 59 from 235 (25.1% SR) for 60.7pts (+25.8% ROI), from which...

  • those sent off at 15/2 or shorter are 57/164 (34.8%) for 97.56pts (+59.5%)
  • those last seen 4-30 days earlier are 47/137 (34.3%) for 76.26pts (+55.7%)
  • those rated (OR) 113-124 are 37/129 (28.7%) for 62.16pts (+48.2%)
  • over 1m7.5f to 2m0.5f : 17/55 (30.9%) for 49.27pts (+89.6%)
  • on Soft ground : 15/50 (30%) for 30.4pts (+60.8%)
  • and 7 yr old sare 14/49 (28.6%) for 24.93pts (+50.9%)

...and a simple yet highly profitable micro from the above? How about those sent off at 15/2 or shorter, 4-30 days after their last run? These runners are 47 from 102 (46.1% SR) for 111.26pts (+109.1% ROI) profit!

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Oxwich Bay 4/1 BOG which was available from half a dozen firms at 5.20pm on Monday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.00 Taunton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 19th February 2019

Monday's Pick was...

3.00 Carlisle : Absolutely Dylan @ 5/2 BOG 8th at 11/4 (Held up, closed 6th, given reminder, led after next, headed 9th, lost place 12th, not fluent 4 out, well beaten from next)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

3.45 Taunton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Orchardstown Cross 3/1 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 4, 5yo+, Novices Limited Handicap Chase over 2m7f on good ground, worth £6108 to the winner... 

Why?

Here we have a very lightly raced (today is his 6th outing) 8 yr old gelding who has been a runner-up on each of his last two starts, despite a 445-day gap between them!

He was only beaten late on by half a length last time out 50 days ago when (a) coming off that lengthy absence, (b) running for Jeremy Scott for the first time and (c) ridden by today's jockey, the rising star, Rex Dingle for the first time. He's expected to come on for the run, should stay and carries virtually no weight here today.

Jeremy Scott is 20 from 102 (19.6% SR) for 125.23pts (+122.8% ROI) backed blindly here at Taunton since the start of 2011 and that's too many bets, here are a dozen relevance angles at play today, all derived from that stat...

  1. males are 18/82 (2%) for 140pts (+170.8%)
  2. those who had raced in the previous 50 days are 19/70 (27.1%) for 46.8pts (+209.7%)
  3. handicappers are 14/61 (23%) for 22.1pts(+36.3%)
  4. at Class 4, it's 8/53 (15.1%) for 101pts (+190.6%)
  5. at odds of 8/1 and shorter : 17/50 (34%) for 43.75pts (+87.5%)
  6. Feb-April : 9/34 (26.5%) for 25.1pts (+73.8%)
  7. 2nd/3rd LTO : 10/28 (35.7%) for 32.5pts (+116.1%)
  8. with a 3/5 lb claimer on board : 7/26 (26.9%) for 22.4pts (+86.3%)
  9. 2018/19 = 8/21 (38.1%) for 118.4pts (+563.9%)
  10. chasers are 5/18 (27.8%) for 25.7pts (+143%)
  11. 8/9 yr olds are 5/12 (41.7%) for 17pts (+141.8%)
  12. Rex Dingle = 2/5 (40%) for 1.88pts (+37.7%)

...whilst more generally... Rex Dingle is 7/20 (35% SR) for 12.3pts (+61.5% ROI) on Jeremy Scott-trained runners including 6 wins from 12 (50%) for 13.4pts (+111.7%) in handicaps...

...and even more generally... Jeremy Scott's Class 4 handicap chasers are 36 from 173 (20.8% SR) for 84.5pts (+48.8% ROI) since the start of 2014 and these include...

  • after a 3-8 week rest : 23/94 (24.5%) for 80.4pts (+85.5%)
  • on Good ground : 19/83 (22.9%) for 30.8pts (+37.1%)
  • and here at Taunton : 3/7 (42.9%) for 22.9pts (+326.9%)

...all pointing towards... a 1pt win bet on Orchardstown Cross 3/1 BOG which was widely available at 7.35pm on Monday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.45 Taunton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 13th December 2018

Wednesday's Pick was...

12.50 Southwell : Echo Express @ 10/3 BOG WON at 7/4 (In touch, headway to chase leaders 4 out, led 3 out, strongly challenged after last, held on gamely to win by half a length)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

3.15 Taunton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Capeland @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 3, Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m2f on Good ground worth £9357 to the winner...

Why?

This 6 year old gelding has been a model of consistency over the past 12 months with a form line reading 222211, with the last five of those six runs representing his entire chasing career. The wins were both at today's Class 3 and over 1m7.5f and 2m4f respectively, so he's at the right level and a 2n2f trip shouldn't be beyond him, especially as he won over hurdles at 2m2.5f.

His trainer Paul Nicholls isn't generally a man you can follow blindly and make a profit from, despite consistently firing in winners : they just get overbet. However, there are some areas where you can benefit.

In the the past 14 days, Paul's runners are 11/38 (29% SR) for 31.8pts (+83.8% ROI), including those ridden by today's jockey Harry Cobden at 8/21 (38.1%) for 19.3pts (+92.1%), whilst his chasers are 4/17 (23.5%) for 19.9pts (+117.1%).

Another successful angle at play today is the Nicholls / Cobden / Taunton combination with horses priced shorter than 10/3, which currently stands at 9 from 17 (52.9% SR) for 3.9pts (+22.9% ROI).

More generally, however, and with a "proper" sample size for our purpose is the fact that...since the start of 2014 in UK Class 1-4 handicap chases, horses sent off at 7/1 and shorter, 6 to 30 days after winning a novice chase LTO are 176 from 630 (27.9% SR) for 87.4pts (+13.9% ROI), from which the following data subsets are relevant...

  • males are 165/581 (28.4%) for 92.1pts (+15.96%)
  • winners in a handicap LTO : 152/530 (28.7%) for 76.9pts (+14.5%)
  • Class 3 : 78/285 (27.4%) for 36.7pts (+12.9%)
  • on Good ground : 78/241 (30.3%) for 41.1pts (+17.1%)
  • in December : 22/75 (29.3%) for 15.5pts (+20.7%)
  • at Taunton : 5/15 (33.3%) for 0.16pts (+1.04%)
  •  and with Harry Cobden on board : 3/8 (37.5%) for 1.09pts (+13.6%)

...and Class 3 males on good ground who won a Handicap Novice Chase LTO are 28/78 (35.9% SR) for 25.6pts (+32.9% ROI)...

Finally, considering that our pick is likely to attract market attention (not because I picked it, mind!) and is quite likely to be sent off as favourite, it's worth knowing that backing favs isn't always a bad thing. Especially as since 2012, favourites in Taunton handicap chases are 53 from 139 (38.1% SR) for 28.4pts (+20.5% ROI) backed blindly, including...

  • those rested for 45 days or less : 46/117 (39.3%) for 24.8pts (+21.2%)
  • LTO winners are 23/38 (60.5%) for 27.1pts (+71.3%)
  • and those who won LTO in the previous 45 days are 21/35 (60%) for 22.5pts (+64.3%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Capeland @ 3/1 BOG, as offered by Bet365, Hills, 10Bet & SportPesa at 6.25pm on Wednesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.15 Taunton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

PPS Thursday's selection will appear later on Wednesday than usual, I've got an appointment I can't get out of!

Stat of the Day, 12th April 2018

Wednesday's Runner was...

4.20 Lingfield : Roundabout Magic@ 7/2 BOG 8th at 4/1 (Held up and never on terms, given a terrible ride IMO)

And now to Thursday's...

4.30 Taunton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Dicosimo @ 9/4 BOG

A 6-runner, Class 3,  2m3f handicap hurdle (4yo+) on heavy ground worth £7849 to the winner...

Why?

This 7 yr old gelding was a winner last time out at Fontwell just over 5 weeks ago (36 days to be precise), when scoring by five lengths over a 2m3.5f trip on soft ground on his first crack at a Class 3 handicap. That said, he has already won as Listed hurdle race (on heavy ground) and has won 3 of 4 small field (6-8 runners) contests.

His trainer Warren Greatrex is 13 from 51 (25.5% SR) with hurdlers racing over 2m2.5f to 2m3.5f over the last two years and these runners have produced 33.7pts profit at an ROI of 66.1% and include the following angles applicable today...

  • males are 10/42 (23.8%) for 33.4pts (+79.5%)
  • those who ran in the previous 45 days are 11/36 (30.6%) for 16.2pts (+45%)
  • those sent off at 3/1 and shorter are 9/22 (40.9%) for 1pt (+4.5%)
  • those with a top 2 finish LTO are 9/20 (45%) for 7.45pts (+37.25%)
  • handicappers are 5/17 (29.4%) for 32.3pts (+189.8%)
  • in March/April : 5/12 (41.7%) for 38.7pts (+322.2%)
  • 7/8 yr olds are 2/8 925%) for 22.16pts (+277%)
  • at Class 3 : 2/7 (28.6%) for 37.7pts (+538.7%)
  • and here at Taunton : 2/3 (66.6%) for 9.53pts (+317.5%)

Whilst more generally in UK Class 2 to 5 handicap hurdles over 1m7.5f to 3m since the start of 2o13, horses who won a handicap hurdle last time out by more than 4 lengths are 309/1011 (30.6% SR) for 334.1pts (+33.1% ROI) when the following broad conditions were in place...

...Aged 5 to 11 / running off a mark equal to or up to 14lbs higher than that LTO win / at the same class or up one level from LTO / running at a trip 4.5f shorter all the way through to 3.5f further than LTO...

In the context of today's race, those 1011 runners above are...

  • 287/894 (32.1%) for 299.7pts (+33.5%) within 45 days of that LTO win
  • 199/582 (34.2%) for 192.5pts (+33.1%) at the same class as LTO
  • 67/278 (24.1%) for 74.8pts (+26.9%) at Class 3
  • 66/228 (29%) for 40.1pts (+17.6%) as 7 yr olds
  • 45/129 (34.9%) for 58.1pts (+45%) dropping down half a furlong
  • and 16/55 (29.1%) for 19.7pts (+35.8%) over a 2m3f trip

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Dicosimo @ 9/4 BOG which was widely available at 6.05pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.30 Taunton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 14th December 2017

Wednesday's Result :

3.00 Lingfield : Attain @ 11/4 BOG 3rd at 11/4 Tracked leaders, ridden over 1f out, not quicken inside final furlong

Next up is Thursday's...

3.15 Taunton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Workbench @ 11/2 BOG

A Class 3, 4yo+ Handicap Chase over 2m2.5f on Good to Soft ground worth £8,862 to the winner...

And a 9 yr old gelding in decent nick, having won two of his last five starts including a win last time out at Sandown 6 days ago in this grade.

Now he's trained by Dan Skelton and almost inevitably ridden by Harry Skelton and over the 6 years of SotD, I've lost track of the number of times I've advised you to keep an eye on this pair, so in the interests of brevity and/or sanity, I'll not bore you by repeating myself!

One angle about the Skelton "boys", I might not have mentioned previously (or recently anyway!) however, is this quite relevant one...

...Dan + Harry + Males + Top 4 finish LTO 4-15 days earlier + April to December = 36/102 (35.3% SR) for 12.34pts (+12.1% ROI) when sent off at odds of 7/1 and shorter. So, basically males turned back out fairly quickly after a decent run and not now considered a longshot.

Of these 102 qualifiers...

  • LTO winners are 20/50 (40%) for 1.79pts (+3.6%), tending to get well backed, so we need our early prices!
  • chasers are 15/40 (37.5%) for 10.13pts (+25.3%)
  • over trips of 2m1.5f to 2m4.5f : 16/37 (43.2%) for 21.48pts (+58.1%)
  • 8/9 yr olds are 10/25 (40%) for 8.41pts (+33.6%)
  • and on Good to Soft ground : 6/17 (35.3%) for 5.46pts (+32.1%)

Whilst more generally, in handicap chases, 9 & 10 yr olds priced at 15/8 to 13/2 within 7 days of their last run are 106/419 (25.3% SR) for 90.2pts (+21.5% ROI) since 2009, from which...

  • over trips of 2m to 2.75m : 81/225 (29.5%) for 101.6pts (+36.9%)
  • LTO winners are 35/120 (29.2%) for 42.6pts (+35.5%)
  • and LTO winners racing over 2m to 2.75m : 25/81 (30.9%) for 35.6pts (+44%)

..giving us... a 1pt win bet on Workbench @ 11/2 BOG which was offered by Betfair & Paddy Power at 6.30pm on Wednesday, with plenty of acceptable 5/1 BOG available elsewhere. And to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.15 Taunton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 30th November 2017

Wednesday's Result :

3.55 Wolverhampton : Skyva @ 6/1 BOG WON at 7/2 Tracked leaders, effort on inner over 1f out, pushed along to lead near finish, wining by a head.

The last selection of another profitable month runs in Thursday's...

1.20 Taunton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Silent Steps @ 5/2 BOG

A Class 4, 4yo+Novice Handicap Hurdle over 3m on Good ground worth £4549 to the winner.

And a 6 yr old mare making a seasonal reappearance after also moving yards. She finished her last campaign well, coming home as a runner-up in each of her last two starts for trainer Nicky Henderson. People often think that if a horse leaves Nicky's yard, then it's already on the wane, but when you find that this girl has ended up with Paul Nicholls, that necessarily won't always be the case!

Paul Nicholls' horses with more than their fair share of races, especially at the smaller provincial venues, but are generally overbet and therefore poor value from a punting perspective despite the high strike rate, but if you dig deep enough, there are still some angles worth pursuing.

One of those angles is actually very simple...Back Paul's hurdlers at Taunton! Now that seems very basic/straightforward for an SotD angle, but since 2009 this approach has found 74 winners from 210 (35.2% SR)for level stakes profits of 40.5pts (+19.3% ROI), which is excellent for blindly backing a top trainer.

And I could leave it there, but you know I won't/can't! So, of those 210 Taunton hurdlers...

  • Class 4 = 45/127 (35.4%) for 30.4pts (+24%)
  • In Novice races : 49/121 (40.5%) for 19.5pts (+16.1%)
  • from November to January : 40/93 (43%) for 71.63pts (+77%)
  • in handicaps : 19/77 (24.7%) for 20.4pts (+26.5%)
  • 6 yr olds are 22/58 (37.9%) for 7.9pts (+13.6%)
  • at 3m/3m0.5f : 7/28 925%) for 4pts (+14.7%)
  • making their yard debut : 10/24 (41.7%) for 15.8pts (+65.6%)
  • females are 5/12 (41.7%) for 2.6pts (+21.5%)
  • and in Novice handicaps : 3/9 (33.3%) for 2.17pts (+24.1%)

...which points us towards... a 1pt win bet on Silent Steps @ 5/2 BOG which was widely available at 6.55pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.20 Taunton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 20th April 2017

Wednesday's Result :

3.35 Newmarket : Roly Poly @ 9/2 BOG 7th at 7/2 Led, headed 4f out, pushed along long and lost place 3f out, some headway inside final furlong.

Thursday's pick goes in the...

7.00 Taunton...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Ujagar9/2 BOG

Why?

There might be a little more than meets the eye with this one and whilst I'm not suggesting any wrongdoing, there's more than a hint of a trainer "playing the handicap system".

This 6 yr old gelding actually makes his first start for Kevin Bishop today, but prior to the move, he ran in four hurdles contests for another yard, finishing 9th of 10, 10th of 12 and then 4th of 4 in the first three of those contests, beaten by a grand total of some 322 lengths!

He was then "awarded" an opening handicap mark of 74 and was dropped down in class to today's Class 5 and switched from soft ground to good ground for his handicap debut here here at Taunton a fortnight ago, where despite a couple of mistakes that cost him some ground/momentum, he was able to win over course and distance!

He now goes off a mark of 80, but this looks a poor race and if he can keep the errors to a minimum, there's no reason why he can't win again.

Stats-wise, the move to Kevin Bishop is interesting to me, as he's one of the trainers I keep an eye out for in handicaps during March & April, because since 2010, his handicappers are 15/66 (22.7% SR) for 209.5pts (+317.5% ROI) during those two months.

And of those 66 runners...

  • those racing at Class 4/5 are 12/51 (23.5%) for 201.3pts (+394.7%)
  • hurdlers are 10/43 (23.3%) for 186.9pts (+434.6%)
  • those with a run in the last 45 days are 12/42 (28.6%) for 211.6pts (+503.8%)
  • those with a top 5 finish LTO are 12/37 (32.4%) for 109.1pts (+295%)
  • and LTO winners are 3/11 (27.3%) for 18.15pts (+165%)

AND...Class 4/5 handicap hurdlers running within 45 days of a top 5 finish last time out are 4 from 12 (33.3% SR) for 65.3pts (+544% ROI) profit.

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Ujagar9/2 BOG which was on offer with Bet365, BetVictor and Ladbrokes at 6.55pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.00 Taunton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Stat of the Day, 11th January 2017

Tuesday's Result :

1.15 Southwell : L'Inganno Felice @ 5/1 BOG WON at 11/4 Keen, raced wide, close up, tracked leader 7f out, led over 4f out, ran on for a comfortable win by 7 lengths ahead of a well strung out field.

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

1.05 Taunton

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Stay Out Of Court @ 11/4 BOG

Why?

This 6 yr old gelding has acquitted himself well enough in two starts so far, finishing 3rd on debut in a bumper at Worcester back in June 2016, before becoming a runner-up at Ffos Las on heavy ground when making his hurdling debut three weeks ago.

That last run was on heavy ground,l so his stamina seems fine and it was also at a higher grade (C4) than today.  And to put that race into context, he was only beaten by 0.75 lengths behind the more experienced and 132-rated Robinshill, who last weekend suffered a defeat by a similar margin off 135 in a Class 2 contest at Sandown.

So, if the form pans out as I hope it will, trainer David Pipe will have another winner at Taunton, where since 2008, his 6 to 10 yr olds are 28/164 (17.1% SR) for 36.2pts (+22.1% ROI), including of note today...

  • males are 28/149 (18.8%) for 51.2pts (+34.4%)
  • hurdlers are 19/123 (15.5%) for 36.3pts (+29.5%)
  • those stepping in trip by more than 1f are 11/59 (18.6%) for 52.4pts (+88.8%)
  • and those racing over this 3m 0.5f trip are 7/26 (26.9%) for 64.1pts (+246.7%)

That stat about the step up in trip is no surprise really, as a quick look at the Trainer Snippets report tells us that over the last two years, the David Pipe runners stepping up in trip by more than 25% of the distance they last ran are 19/88 (21.6% SR) for 46.83pts (+53.2% ROI) at SP, figures which can easily be beaten by Betfair SP or BOG odds, which got me digging again!

And what I discovered what that David Pipe hurdlers stepping up in trip by 3.5f to 9f are 67/393 (17.1% SR) for 121.7pts (+31% ROI) since 2011, of which...

  • 6/7 yr olds are 30/152 (19.7%) for 168.8pts (+111.1%)
  • those racing at 2m6.5f to 3m2.5f are 30/143 (21%) for 155.7pts (+108.9%)
  • and like Stay Out Of Court, 6/7 yr olds racing at 2m6.5f to 3m2.5f are 18/67 (26.9% SR) for 154.9pts (+231.1% ROI)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Stay Out Of Court @ 11/4 BOG which was offered by Paddy Power and a half dozen others at 6.30pm on Tuesday, so we should all be able to get on! To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.05 Taunton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Stat of the Day, 8th December 2016

Wednesday's Result :

7.15 Kempton : Timekeeping @ 5/2 BOG 3rd at 7/4 Tracked leaders, led over 3f out, headed inside final furlong, no extra.

Thursday's pick goes in the...

2.40 Taunton

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Winning Spark @ 4/1 BOG

Why?

After Wednesday's stack of stats, it's quite a short/simple one today with a 9 yr old gelding with course and distance form trained by a handler who seems to get more than expected from a small string of handicappers.

That trainer is Jackie du Plessis, who has had 17 handicap wins from just 109 runs (15.6% SR) over the last 4 years, resulting in level stakes profits of 35.43pts at an attractive ROI of 32.5% and that's from blindly backing all of them.

In terms of today's contests, those 109 runners are...

  • 16/97 (16.5%) for 36.46pts (+37.6%) from her male runners
  • 13/83 (15.7%) for 6.32pts (+7.6%) ridden by today's jockey JA Best
  • 13/57 (22.8%) for 61.56pts (+108%) over trips of 2m3f to 2m7f
  • 8/53 (15.1%) for 31.12pts (+58.7%) over hurdles
  • 4/24 (16.7%) for 5.75pts (+24%) at Class 3
  • and 3/14 (21.4%) for 9.34pts (+66.7%) here at Taunton

And of course, all of the above apply to Winning Spark, who saves his best for this venue with 2 wins and 3 places from 7 starts in handicap hurdles here, all under today's jockey.

Of those 7 previous visits, he has 2 wins and a place from 4 runs at 2.3f/2m3.5f, he has a win ands 2 places from 3 Class 3 runs and is 1 from 2 here this year...

...hence...a 1pt win bet on Winning Spark at 4/1 BOG with Hills who led the way at 5.40pm on Wednesday. To see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.40 Taunton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Stat of the Day, 7th April 2016

Wednesday's Result :

7.45 Kempton: Street Duel @ 100/30 BOG still to run (report to follow later)

Thursday's runner goes in the...

3.15 Taunton:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Minellacelebration at 5/1 BOG.

Why?

This 6yr old gelding wa sa course and distance winner last time out, 17 days ago and comes back to the track with a 3 from 5 (11331) record in handicap hurdle contests. And with today's race in mind, those 5 outings have produced the following...

  • 3 wins from 4 at odds below 11/2, 3 from 4 within 3 weeks of his last run, 3 from 4 in fields of 6-11 runners
  • he's 2 from 4 with today's jockey and 2 from 3 at Class 4.

And in hcp hurdle races of 6-11 runners at odds below 11/2 within 3 weeks of his last run, he has three wins from three for 9.28pts (+309.3% ROI) profit and two of those runs were at Class 4 and two were under today's jockey. They weren't the same two races, but that LTO win was a Class 4 race with today's jockey!

In addition to the specific stats surrounding the horse and his suitability to today's conditions, we really should look at a much bigger general picture and to do this, I'm going to talk about course and distance handicap hurdle winners returning to the scene of a C&D win off the back of a win (anywhere) last time out.

And since 2008, such horses have won 295 of 1505 (19.6% SR) for 187.5pts (+12.5% ROI) profit. 1505 is a reliable enough sample size, but as it's likely to be too big for some of you, let me break them down as follows...

  • those running over the same C&D as LTO are 211/1034 (20.4% SR) for 163.7pts (+15.9% ROI)
  • those last seen 11 to 30 days ago are 157/819 (19.2% SR) for 180.9pts (+22.2% ROI)
  • those racing over trips of 2m3f to 3m2f are 139/692 (20.1% SR) for 144.5pts (+20.9% ROI)
  • on good ground : 95/489 (19.4% SR) for 127.8pts (+26.1% ROI)
  • 6yr olds are 82/387 (21.2% SR) for 83.7pts (+21.7% ROI)

And a small composite micro you could use is : UK hcp hurdlers at the same C&D as LTO, 11-30 DSLR, running over 2m4f to 3m2f on good/good to soft ground for 32 winners from 128 (25% SR) and profits of 122.1pts (+95.4% ROI), from which...

  • Class 3/4 runners are 28/95 (29.5% SR) for 134.6pts (+141.7% ROI)
  • in the last three years : 18/60 (30% SR) for 83.5pts (+139.1% ROI)
  • 5/6 yr olds are 10/45 (22.2% SR) for 31.6pts (+70.3% ROI)
  • AND horses fitting all three of the above criteria are 7/17 (41.2% SR) for 42.1pts (+247.5% ROI)

So the call is...a 1pt win bet on Minellacelebration at 5/1 BOG with any of Bet365, Coral, Hills and/or BetVictor, who were the four market leaders at 6.40pm on Wednesday evening. To see what your bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.15 Taunton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 3rd March 2016

Wednesday's Result :

2.45 Wincanton : Quite by Chance @ 1/4 BOG 3rd at 11/4 (In touch, headway when mistake 9th, led 11th, headed after 4 out, outpaced when left 3rd 2 out)

Thursday's runner goes in the...

4.25 Taunton:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Tornado In Milan @ 7/2 BOG

Why?

This 10 yr old is 3 from 15 over hurdles, which is reasonable, if not spectacular, but looking at today's conditions in relation to that 3/15 record and I see that Tornado In Milan is 2/8 here at Taunton and 2/8 on soft ground. He's also 2/7 in a hood and 2 from 2 running 6 to 20 days after his last run. Also of note here is his 1 from 2 record over this trip, 1/2 over C&D and 1/2 under today's jockey Conor Ring who claims 5lbs today.

So, we know the horse should be happy enough, what of the yard in general? Well, trainer Evan Williams's hurdlers are 14/87 (16.1% SR) for 65.4pts (+75.32% ROI), from which...

  • those competing at 2m1f to 2m3.5f are 12/67 (17.9% SR) for 74pts (+110.4% ROI)
  • those racing 6 to 75 DSLR are 12/66 (18.2% SR) for 64.9pts (+98.3% ROI)
  • those with a mark of 110 to 130 are 10/32 (31.25% SR) for 73.2pts (+228.9% ROI)
  • and those carrying 11-06 to 11-12 are 7/20 (35% SR) for 25pts (+125% ROI)

As I said earlier, jockey Conor Ring claims 5lbs and Evan Williams' horse have gone well in the past when partnered by such claimers. More specifically, since the start of 2008, at odds of 5/4 to 11/1, Evan's NH handciappers ridden by a 5lb claimer are 27/154 (17.5% SR) for 44.7pts at a healthy enough ROI of 29%, but we won't stop there! A closer inspection of those 154 runners shows that...

  • those who finished in the top 4 LTO are 20/89 (22.5% SR) for 45.1pts (+50.7% ROI)
  • hurdlers are 14/72 (19.4% SR) for 42.7pts (+59.3% ROI)
  • those rated 116 to 130 are 11/49 (22.5% SR) for 32.1pts (+65.5% ROI)
  • Class 3 runners are 11/49 (22.5% SR) for 30.2pts (+61.6% ROI)
  • those racing over trips of 2m1.5f to 2m4f are 16/29 (55.2% SR) for 112.4pts (+387.6% ROI)
  • on soft ground : 4/25 (16% SR) for 18.7pts (+74.8% ROI)
  • here at Taunton : 4/13 (30.8% SR) for 21.6pts (+166.1% ROI)

So today's play is...a 1pt win bet on Tornado In Milan at 7/2 BOG, a price widely available, although Betway (non-BOG until 10.00am) are a standout 4/1. To see your preferred bookie's prices, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.25 Taunton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Double Dutch, 23rd February 2016

Fingal's Cave was too good/strong for his rivals in Wolverhampton's finale yesterday, but it counted for nothing after a really poor show in the Lingfield opener with our runners finishing 4th and 6th of justsix runners.

It has been tough over the last week or so, but little/no point dwelling on it, let's crack on!

Monday's results were as follows:

Colourfilly : 4th at 9/4 (adv 2/1)
Tabla : 6th at 3/1 (adv 7/2)
----------------------------------------------------
Fingal's Cave : WON at 15/8 (adv 5/2)
National Service : 4th at 5/1 (adv 10/3)

Results to date:
811 winning selections from 2926 = 27.72%
250 winning bets in 757 days = 33.03%

Stakes: 1513.00pts
Returns: 1582.82pts
P/L : +69.82pts (+4.61% ROI)

Your first 30 days for just £1

And to Tuesday's Selections...

2.10 Wetherby :

An awful looking contest, where only the top two in the betting have shown any kind of recent form worth writing about! So hopefully they'll lead the way home here.

Zayfire Aramis' run at Uttoxeter 24 days ago was his best to date and more impressively came off the back of a 344-day absence from the track. Assuming there's no bounce factor here, a repeat of that effort would more than likely be enough here. He only really got found out late on in that 2m4f encounter, yet still probably would have won it, but for bumping into a progressive sort who was completing a hat-trick. I say that, because the rest of the field were strung out and well beaten. The drop in trip should help and I'd expect him to be in fighting at 3/1 BOG today.

Copt Hill has proven to be more consistent, though, and his 7/2 BOG pricetag might prove a little generous later this afternoon. He doesn't win often enough, but has shown signs that he might be ready to land one with increasingly improved efforts in each of his last three outings, where has has finished third with decreasing margins of defeat each time. Only beaten by half a length in a better race last time out, he now has the in-form Craig Nichol on his back and as it's Craig's only booked ride, he'll be keen to extend his good record in Wetherby handicaps (currently 7/27) on this one.

4.45 Taunton :

Another weak looking contest, where the field seems to be more about quantity than quality! The obvious starting point has to be the 7/4 BOG The Wealerdealer, who was last seen on a racecourse winning a similar event to this at Exeter some 294 days ago, which came 300 days after his last racecourse outing. But during both long absences, he was running in and winning PTP contests, the latest of which was a win 86 days ago. He's clearly in decent form and although he might have something to prove in testing conditions, should still be the pick of the bunch here.

Next best is likely/hopefully the 4/1 BOG Decade Player, who was recently second between the flags on his debut for his new yard, but the drop right back in trip should really suit him based on past form. All his best Irish form came from around this shorter trip in fields of 8 to 15 runners and in a fairly unappealing contest today, he could well build on the promise shown in that PTP event a month ago.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows...

Zayfire Aramis / The Wealerdealer @ 10/1 (3/1 & 7/4 : Stan James)
Zayfire Aramis / Decade Player @ 19/1 (3/1 & 4/1 : Paddy Power)
Copt Hill / The Wealerdealer @ 11.38/1 (7/2 & 7/4 : Stan James)
Copt Hill / Decade Player @ 20.67/1 (10/3 & 4/1 : Betfair Sports)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Double Dutch, 2nd February 2016

Close but not close enough was the verdict from our opening bet of the week/month. In the end, the well fancied National Service was two lengths away from providing us with an ideal start to February via a 12/1 double, after Little Big Man had already obliged at Kempton.

Monday's results were as follows:

Little Big Man : WON at 3/1 (adv 2/1)
Little Indian : 3rd at 11/4 (adv 7/2)
----------------------------------------------------
National Service : 2nd at 7/4 (adv 9/4)
Quite A Story : 4th at 5/1 (adv 10/3)

Results to date:
794 winning selections from 2856 = 27.80%
246 winning bets in 739 days = 33.29%

Stakes: 1477.00pts
Returns: 1550.53pts
P/L : +73.53pts (+4.98% ROI)

Your first 30 days for just £1

Today's Selections...

3.45 Taunton

After Hours @ 11/4 BOG
Henry Oliver's handicappers are profitable to follow and this horse has already won two of five starts, most recently when winning on heavy ground at Haydock 45 days ago. He looked beaten that day, but stayed on well to just regain the lead very late on. The 3rd and 4th from that day have both won since and the extra furlong should help him here, if runs in a similar manner to last time.

Master Red @ 11/4 BOG
If he gets round, he's in the mix basically. That's been his story over hurdles so far, anyway. Really good in bumpers, finishing 121 and then since a switch to hurdling, has often let the team down by his jumping. 3 falls in 7 races, but 2 wins and 2 places from 4 completions tells its own story. Off the track for a considerable time, I'd expect his new handler to have worked on that jumping. Hopefully we'll see that here.

4.15 Taunton

Wychwoods Brook @ 5/2 BOG
A course and distance winner last time out and should be able to defy a 5lb rise in weight as he's still below his highest winnnig mark. He loves the mud, having won 3 from 7 plus a placed effort on heavy ground. Recent defeats have either been at a higher grade or over longer trips; Class 3 and 2m7f look ideal for this 10 yr old nowadays.

Sonny The One @ 4/1 BOG
He may well be a 10-race maiden and 0 from 3 over fences, but he has been knocking on the door finishing 242 in those 3 efforts over fences. His latest effort was his best to date and this youngster could well benefit from receinving plenty of weight from his rivals and it won't have gone unnoticed that Team Tizzard are coming in to some excellent form as we approach the business end of the season.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows...

After Hours  / Wychwoods Brook @ 12.13/1 (11/4 & 5/2 : BetVictor)
After Hours / Sonny The One @ 16.50/1 (5/2 & 4/1 : Betfair SB)
Master Red / Wychwoods Brook @ 11.25/1 (5/2 & 5/2 : 10Bet, Hills & Betfair SB)
Master Red / Sonny The One @ 16.50/1 (5/2 & 4/1 : Bet365 & Betfair SB)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Double Dutch, 23rd January 2016

After a couple of poor days, Friday was much better even if the final returns were the same.

No double to celebrate, I'm afraid, as E Fourteen's defeat by just a nose proved to be difference between a loss and a 16.88/1 double. To add insult to injury, our runner was just held off by one I'd suggested might just need a run!

Later, Aso was a winner at Market Rasen and although that doesn't help the bottom line, it did at least mean I hadn't gone three straight days without a winner and the ego remains intact!

Friday's results were as follows:

E Fourteen : 2nd at 4/1 (adv 9/2)
Hot Stuff : 4th at 11/4 (adv 7/4)
----------------------------------------------------
Aso : WON at 2/1 (adv 9/4)
Kalane : 3rd at 85/40 (adv 5/2)

Results to date:
786 winning selections from 2824 = 27.83%
244 winning bets in 731 days = 33.38%

Stakes: 1461.00pts
Returns: 1540.40pts
P/L : +79.40pts (+5.43% ROI)

Your first 30 days for just £1

Today's Selections...

2.55 Lingfield

Charlie Appleby and Godolphin are double handed here and it wouldn't be too much of a surprise if Anglophile and Pinzolo were the first two home today.

Anglophile is mega consistent with 8 successive top 2 finishes to his name. He's 2 from 4 here at Lingfield (1212), 3 from 6 at Class 2 (plus 3 x runner-up) and has a win and a runner-up finish from two efforts over course and distance. Recent form and his stats suggest he's going to be in the mix again at 5/2 BOG today.

And if he ends up finishing second again, then I'd expect Pinzolo to be the one who beats him. The booking of the in-form track specialist Adam Kirby would suggest the yard favour this one and his history suggests that only a near 9 month lay-off should be the obstacle in his way here.

The bulk of his career has been at Listed Class and better, but he's still 3 from 4 at this level and 2 from 2 on the A/W and his Listed class win is easily the best piece of form on offer today. He goes really well in these small fields and the current 15/8 BOG might prove a little generous later on.

4.30 Taunton

Vic Dartnall sends Un Majeur Aulmes here today as his only runner of the day and he does tend to do well with his sole representatives. The horse comes here off the back of a narrow defeat at Wincanton on Boxing Day, when going down by a neck in a race he should probably have won.

His main issue is that he doesn't do much when left in front and it's possible he took the lead too early last time out and idled, eventually getting caught late on. Denis O'Regan rides this track well and I'm sure they'll have learned from that defeat and at bottom weight will seek to make amends at 15/8 BOG.

The withdrawal of Jayo Time means that I didn't have to make a choice for my second selection, as Cash And Go is now the obvious one to take. The prowess of Venetia Williams heavy ground chasers is well documented (Aso won for us yesterday) and she has a real chance of adding to her season's tally here.

Cash And Go will be looking to build on a third placed finish at Sandown in a stronger race than this one three weeks ago and the drop in class might be all that he needs to get back to winning ways off a mark just 2lbs higher than his 2 chase successes to date and he's priced at 11/4 BOG to do so.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows...

Pinzolo / Un Majeur Aulmes @ 7.28/1 (15/8 & 15/8 : Betway)
Pinzolo / Cash And Go @ 9.78/1 (15/8 & 11/4 : Bet365, BetVictor & Betway)
Anglophile / Un Majeur Aulmes @ 9.06/1 (5/2 & 15/8 : Betway)
Anglophile / Cash And Go @ 12.13/1 (5/2 & 11/4 : generally)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Stat of the Day, 23rd January 2016

Friday's Result :

3.15 Chepstow : Waldorf Salad @ 11/4 BOG non-runner (meeting abandoned)

Saturday's runner goes in the...

3.55 Taunton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Winning Spark @ 3/1 BOG

Why?

This 9yr old gelding comes here off the back of a heavy ground course and distance win here 10 days ago and although penalised for the win, still receives weight from all of his main rivals. And whilst his hurdles record is quite modest at 2 wins from 18, conditions here look perfect for him.

As those 2 wins have both come from 10 rides under today's jockey James Best, both have come from six runs here at Taunton and both have come from four January outings.

In short, Winning Spark is 2 from 2 here at Taunton in January under James Best with wins coming at today's 2m3f trip on heavy ground and over 2m 3.5f on soft ground.

He is trained by Jackie du Plessis, who has found some success in handicap contests since taking her licence almost five years ago. To date 12 of her 81 (14.8% SR) handicappers have been winners with the resultant level stakes profits of 8.2pts providing a reasonable ROI of 10.1% from blind backing.

We can, of course, improve those figures by introducing some logical filters that apply to today's contest. Firstly we find that all 12 winners come from Miss du Plessis' 75 male runners with that 16% strike rate generating 14.2pts profit at an ROI of 18.9%, with those 75 runners providing the following stats...

  • those rated (OR) 95 to 125 are 12/67 (17.9% SR) for 22.2pts (+33.1% ROI)
  • those priced 15/8 to 12/1 are 12/63 (19.1% SR) for 26.2pts (+41.6% ROI)
  • those ridden by James Best are 11/62 (17.7% SR) for 12.4pts (+20% ROI)
  • those racing over trips of 19/20 furlongs are 8/20 (40% SR) for 43.3pts (+216.6% ROI)
  • those racing on heavy ground are 6/18 (33.3% SR) for 21.7pts (+120.5% ROI)

And Jackie's male NH handicappers rated 95 to 125 racing over 2m3f to 2m4f at odds of 15/8 to 10/1 under James Best are 7 from 12 (58.3% SR) for 36.5pts (+304.5% ROI), with those running on heavy ground winning four from five (80% SR) for 21.2pts profit at an ROI of 423.8%.

And my recommended bet, based on my data and prices available at 10.10pm is...

A 1pt win bet on Winning Spark and that's at 3/1 BOG with Boylesports / Paddy Power / Seanie Mac, whilst Betfred / Totesport offer the same price, but don't go BOG until morning. To see the rest of the market, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.55 Taunton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...