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Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 25th April

EPSOM – APRIL 25

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £52.90 (7 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 43.1% units went through – 9/2 – 7/1 – 9/1 (4/1)

Race 2: 87.1% of the remaining units when through – 4/6* - 11/2 – 14/1

Race 3: 64.5% of the remaining units went through – 11/10* - 25/1 – 12/1

Race 4: 42.9% of the remaining units went through – 7/1 – 13/2 – 5/1 (4/1)

Race 5: 65.0% of the remaining units went through – 11/8* - 12/1 – 5/1

Race 6: 20.4% of the units secured the dividend – 9/1 – 9/2 – 16/1 (7/2)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Epsom: 

Leg 1 (2.10): 6 (Compas Scoobie), 8 (Just That Lord) & 1 (Desert Law)

Leg 2 (2.45): 1 (Crossed Baton) & 3 (James Cook)

Leg 3 (3.20): 3 (Royal Line), 8 (Golden Wolf) & 10 (Whinging Willy)

Leg 4 (3.55): 8 (Ajman King) & 9 (Contango)

Leg 5 (4.25): 5 (Mokhles) & 4 (Master Of Wine)

Leg 6 (4.55): 2 (Christopher Wood), 1 (Akvavera) & 5 (Cuban Heel)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.10: The top ten runners in the handicap hold the edge over the bottom four in the list according to weight trends, with the last eleven winners having carried a minimum burden of 8-11.  If any rain got into the ground I could offer an each way shout for Pettochside with John Bridger having saddled a winner yesterday.  A winner of 6/10 races on soft ground, the going is likely to be a little too lively for Josephine Gordon’s mount however, whereby preference on this occasion is awarded to COMPAS SCOOBIE, JUST THAT LORD (runner up last year) and DESERT LAW.  That said, keep an eye on the weather at Epsom, just in case connections of Pettochside are walking around with smiles on their faces.

Favourite factor: Five of the fourteen favourites have finished in the frame, statistics which include two successful (3/1 & 5/4) market leaders.  The last seven winners have scored at 25/1-20/1-12/1-7/1-13/2-9/2-4/1.  Nine of the last twenty horses to have claimed Placepot positions have been returned in double figures.

Record of the three course winners in the opening event:

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1/3—Desert Law (good to firm)

1/4—Pettochside (good)

1/1—Midnight Malibu (good)

 

2.45: This Epsom Derby trial has failed to produce a winner of the ‘Blue Riband’ since 1939 but the contest has offered up half decent gold medallists, with last year’s winner Cracksman being one of them.  John Gosden has saddled the last three winners of the contest and in CROSSED BATTON, John has another worthy favourite in the field.  For the record, John has saddled five of his last eight runners to winning effect, with two of the other three inmates snaring silver medal positions.  More rain would probably aid and abet the chance of JAMES COOK who is a brother of Found who also hailed from the Aidan O’Brien yard. The same going comment is also relevant to MY LORD AND MASTER who could yet be anything.

Favourite factor: Twelve of the last twenty favourites have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include ten winners.

Record of the course winner in the second race:

1/1—Dee Ex Bee (heavy)

 

3.20: Four-year-olds have won nine of the last seventeen renewals of the ’Great Met’, a race which used to command plenty of media space a few years ago.  Vintage representative GOLDEN WOLF is nothing if not consistent with the Richard Hughes raider boasting each way claims.  That said, John Gosden has (seemingly) caught the trend bug by declaring ROYAL LINE who appears to be the logical favourite in the contest, especially as John saddles just the two horses to today’s card.  WHINGING WILLIE has had his limitations exposed on decent ground in the past but if the forecast showers arrive on cue, Gary Moore’s raider could improve his record of already having snared two silver medals in this event to date.

Favourite factor: Ten of the last eighteen market leaders have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include four winners.

Record of the course winners in the ‘Great Met’:

1/4—Fire Fighting (good to firm)

2/5—Lovelina (2 x good)

2/3—C’Est No Mour (2 x good)

1/14—Whinging Willie (heavy)

1/3—Berrahai (good)

 

3.50: Four-year-olds have won thirteen of the last nineteen renewals of this Class 2 (City & Suburban) event, whilst eight of the last eleven gold medallists have carried weights of 8-13 more.  With four-year-olds on a five timer on this occasion, more trainers appear to have taken notice of the trend than is usually the case and the pick of the seven relevant entries will hopefully prove to be AJMAN KING and CONTANGO.  The latter named Andrew Balding representative has contested all five assignments to date with ‘soft’ having featured in the ground description thus far, whereby connections will be hoping that the disappointing weather forecast is accurate.  Either way though, AJMAN KING might take the beating with Roger Varian seemingly having found a good opportunity for his progressive Lope De Vega colt.  Dubai Horizon is the reserve nomination ahead of course winner Thundering Home.

Favourite factor: 13/26 market leaders of late have finished in the frame, statistics which include six winners.

Record of the three course winners in the ‘City & Surburban’:

1/2—Thundering Blue (good to soft)

1/4—Emenem (good)

1/1—Ajman King (heavy)

 

4.25: The market will no doubt offer the best advice here which puts you in the ‘box seat’ over yours truly.  There is not much movement on the exchanges at the time of writing, though MOKHLES is unlikely to be offered up at 9/2 according to the positive queue.  MASTER OF WINE is marginally preferred to KING OF THE SAND in receipt of three pounds relating to the home brigade.

Favourite factor: This is a new event on the Epsom card.

 

5.00: Seven of the last eleven winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-4 and with only 5/11 qualifying via the trend (fairly weak though it is), I’m inclined to look towards the top of the handicap for the winner.  The trio I’m homing in on as dawn breaks over Bristol consists of CHRISTOPHER WOOD, AKVAVERA and CUBAN HILL.

Favourite factor: Six of the twelve market leaders have finished in the frame (five winners) in the Placepot finale thus far.

Record of the course winner on the Placepot finale:

1/1—Deadly Accurate (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 12th April

AINTREE – APRIL 12

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £159.20 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

 

Race 1: 30.3% units went through – 5/1 & 4/1 (6/5)

Race 2: 91.6% of the remaining units when through – 4/11* - 7/2 – 25/1

Race 3: 35.7% of the remaining units went through – 10/1 & 2/1*

Race 4: 30.2% of the remaining units went through – 4/9* & 8/1

Race 5: 13.6% of the remaining units went through – 16/1 – 7/1 – 40/1 (7/4)

Race 6: 41.3% of the units secured the dividend – 8/1 – 15/2 – 6/1*

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Aintree: 

Leg 1 (1.45): 1 (Brain Power) & 3 (Cyrname)

Leg 2 (2.20): 7 (We Have A Dream) & 1 (Apples Shakira)

Leg 3 (2.50): 5 (Might Bite), 8 (Tea For Two) & 2 (Clan Des Obeaux)

Leg 4 (3.25): 3 (Cyrus Darius) & 9 (The New One)

Leg 5 (4.05): 14 (On The Fringe), 1 (Bainsalow), 9 (Grand Vision) & 20 (Wells De Lune)

Leg 6 (4.40): 8 (Kings Socks), 9 (Bun Doran), 10 (Doitforthevillage) & 13 (Baby King)

Suggested stake: 384 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.45: Nicky Henderson is the only represented trainer to have won this race twice over thus far, with the Seven Barrows stable represented by BRAIN POWER on this occasion.  Always wishing to impart with the truth however, Nicky’s 6/5 favourite in the race last year (Top Notch) missed out on a Placepot position.  Paul Nicholls has dominated the first day of the meeting during the last seven years (though no gold medallists in each of the last two years), with Paul having saddled eight winners during the period.  Paul has declared CYRNAME with definite claims, though Colin Tizzard has done his best to stop the ‘warmongers’ making this a two horse event by offering the green light to FINIAN’S OSCAR.

Favourite factor: The only successful favourite (via nine renewals) scored in 2013 at odds of 6/5, whilst five market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions thus far. All nine winners have scored at a top price of 11/2 to date.

Aintree record of course winners in the opening contest:

1/1—Finian’s Oscar (good)

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2.20: Nicky Henderson's disappointing first day results in recent years were highlighted in this race three years ago when Nicky saddled the well beaten (4/6) market leader.  Nicky saddled a 4/9 winner twelve months ago and the trainer plays a really strong hand here, having declared both WE HAVE A DREAM and APPLES SHAKIRA.  Nicky’s latter named raider suddenly found himself outpaced having travelled well for a long way in the Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham last month and it remains to be seen if the addition of a hood will bring about a return to winning form.  Accordingly, I have to lean towards WE HAVE A DREAM, particularly as Nicky swerved the trials and tribulations of Cheltenham, making his gelding a fresher horse in his attempt at landing a nap hand (five successive wins), albeit at the highest level.  If there is a ‘dark horse’ to be aware of in the field, the French raider BEAU GOSSE looks the type to potentially fit the bill.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won eight of the last thirteen contests, with eleven market leaders having secured toteplacepot positions.  Ten winners during the last thirteen years were returned at 13/2 or less.

 

2.50: It remains to be seen if MIGHT BITE had had enough time to recover from his exploits in the Cheltenham Gold Cup which was the thick end of a month ago.  How time flies when the rain pours leading to abandoned meetings!  Thankfully, we have reasonable ground in Liverpool for the Grand National Festival which should ensure that Nicky Henderson’s beaten favourite has, at least, a chance of gaining compensation.  That said, the more I look at the Cheltenham race, the conclusion occurs that the third horse would have beaten Might Bite in another 100 yards whereby an odds on price looks to skinny to take from my viewpoint.  I appreciate his chance from a Placepot perspective however, though last year’s winner TEA FOR TWO and CLAN DES OBEAUX both offer some each way value at around the 14/1 mark.

Favourite factor: Just three favourites have prevailed during the last sixteen years though that said, thirteen winners were returned at odds of 10/1 or less.  Four of the last nine favourites have finished out of the frame.

Aintree record of course winners in the third race:

1/2—Definitly Red (heavy)

1/1—Might Bite (good)

1/2—Sizing Codelco (good)

1/2—Tea For Two (2 x good)

 

3.25: SUPASUNDAE ran well enough when outpointed in the ‘Stayers’ at Prestbury Park last month but at even money (thereabouts), Jessica Harrington’s raider is easily opposed.  You can readily ignore the 20/1 trade press price about CYRUS DARIUS who could be backed into half of those odds if the current momentum is maintained later this morning.  THE NEW ONE won this event four years ago and looks primed to go close at a track which suits the Twiston-Davies representative.  My Tent Or Yours is another who will run his usual game race, likely as not.

Favourite factor: Only six favourites have won during the last 22 years, though 12 of the last 21 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

Aintree record of course winners in the fourth even on the card:

1/1—Cyrus Darius (good to soft)

1/4—My Tent Or Yours (good to soft)

2/5—The New One (2 x good)

 

4.05: Luck in running is an obvious pre-requisite in this event but that said, favourites have a half decent record looking back over the last 24 years (see stats below).  13 of the last 15 winners have been aged in double figures, whereby my ‘short list’ consists of dual winner ON THE FRINGE (beaten at 7/4 in the race twelve months ago), BAINSALOW and GRAND VISION.  If you are in need of a big priced winner after four luckless events, WELLS DE LUNE could give you a decent run for your money at around the 14/1 mark.

Favourite factor: Eleven favourites have won this event during the last 26 years during which time, 22 gold medallists have been returned at odds of 8/1 or less.  Indeed, in a race which invariably looks difficult on paper, it's worth noting that five of the last seven winners have been returned at a top price of 4/1. That said, only five of the last fourteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

Aintree record of course winners in the fifth race:

2/3—On The Fringe (good to soft & soft)

 

4.40: Eleven of the last twelve (and 14 of the last 16) winners carried a maximum weight of 11-1, whereby KINGS SOCKS, BUN DORAN and DOITFORTHEVILLAGE form my overnight short list.   The reserve nomination is awarded to BABY KING, a stable companion of last year’s beaten (placed) favourite BUN DORAN.

Favourite factor: Five market leaders have prevailed via the last sixteen contests, whilst 11 of the 18 market leaders have finished in the frame during the study period.  That said, five of the last ten gold medallists were returned at 33/1-25/1-20/1-20/1-16/1.

Aintree record of course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/3—Theinval (good to soft)

1/1—The Flying Portrait (good)

1/1—Baby King (soft)

 

Record of the course winner in the 7th (non Placepot) race on the card at 5.15:

1/1—Posh Trish (good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

Stat of the Day, 12th April 2018

Wednesday's Runner was...

4.20 Lingfield : Roundabout Magic@ 7/2 BOG 8th at 4/1 (Held up and never on terms, given a terrible ride IMO)

And now to Thursday's...

4.30 Taunton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Dicosimo @ 9/4 BOG

A 6-runner, Class 3,  2m3f handicap hurdle (4yo+) on heavy ground worth £7849 to the winner...

Why?

This 7 yr old gelding was a winner last time out at Fontwell just over 5 weeks ago (36 days to be precise), when scoring by five lengths over a 2m3.5f trip on soft ground on his first crack at a Class 3 handicap. That said, he has already won as Listed hurdle race (on heavy ground) and has won 3 of 4 small field (6-8 runners) contests.

His trainer Warren Greatrex is 13 from 51 (25.5% SR) with hurdlers racing over 2m2.5f to 2m3.5f over the last two years and these runners have produced 33.7pts profit at an ROI of 66.1% and include the following angles applicable today...

  • males are 10/42 (23.8%) for 33.4pts (+79.5%)
  • those who ran in the previous 45 days are 11/36 (30.6%) for 16.2pts (+45%)
  • those sent off at 3/1 and shorter are 9/22 (40.9%) for 1pt (+4.5%)
  • those with a top 2 finish LTO are 9/20 (45%) for 7.45pts (+37.25%)
  • handicappers are 5/17 (29.4%) for 32.3pts (+189.8%)
  • in March/April : 5/12 (41.7%) for 38.7pts (+322.2%)
  • 7/8 yr olds are 2/8 925%) for 22.16pts (+277%)
  • at Class 3 : 2/7 (28.6%) for 37.7pts (+538.7%)
  • and here at Taunton : 2/3 (66.6%) for 9.53pts (+317.5%)

Whilst more generally in UK Class 2 to 5 handicap hurdles over 1m7.5f to 3m since the start of 2o13, horses who won a handicap hurdle last time out by more than 4 lengths are 309/1011 (30.6% SR) for 334.1pts (+33.1% ROI) when the following broad conditions were in place...

...Aged 5 to 11 / running off a mark equal to or up to 14lbs higher than that LTO win / at the same class or up one level from LTO / running at a trip 4.5f shorter all the way through to 3.5f further than LTO...

In the context of today's race, those 1011 runners above are...

  • 287/894 (32.1%) for 299.7pts (+33.5%) within 45 days of that LTO win
  • 199/582 (34.2%) for 192.5pts (+33.1%) at the same class as LTO
  • 67/278 (24.1%) for 74.8pts (+26.9%) at Class 3
  • 66/228 (29%) for 40.1pts (+17.6%) as 7 yr olds
  • 45/129 (34.9%) for 58.1pts (+45%) dropping down half a furlong
  • and 16/55 (29.1%) for 19.7pts (+35.8%) over a 2m3f trip

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Dicosimo @ 9/4 BOG which was widely available at 6.05pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.30 Taunton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Monday 26th March

I had to be away for the weekend and as there were no A/W meetings to fall back on relating to 48 hour declarations whereby I could have offered the usual service, I have included some stats and facts about the three NH meetings on Monday.

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race at last year’s corresponding meeting - and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets at each of the venues:

 

HUNTINGDON:

2017 Placepot dividend: £22.90 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced

Race 1: 56.0% units went through – 7/2, 10/3 & 9/2 (15/8)

Race 2: 52.9% of the remaining units when through – 13/2, Evens* & 50/1

Race 3: 55.3% of the remaining units went through – 4/1*, 11/2 & 9/2

Race 4: 52.0% of the remaining units went through – 11/4*, 9/2 & 5/1

Race 5: 66.1% of the remaining units went through – 7/4*, 4/1 & 5/1

Race 6: 56.5% of the units secured the dividend – 4/1, 7/1 & 11/4*

Stats and facts emerging from the last five meetings at Huntingdon this season:

34 races – 12 winning favourites – 30/34 winners scored at a top price of 10/1

Average Placepot dividend: £92.02

Highest dividend: £206.00 - Lowest dividend: £42.50

Leading trainers at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

6 winners—Nicky Henderson (3/1, 3/1, 2/1*, 6/4*, 6/5* & 1/9*) – 4 entries at the penultimate stage – 2 options in the Class 3 two mile handicap chase scheduled for 3.35

 

 

MARKET RASEN:

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2017 Placepot dividend: £74.50 – 7 favourites – 2 winners & 5 unplaced

Race 1: 70.8% units went through – 4/5* & 14/1

Race 2: 52.5% of the remaining units when through – 9/2, 6/1 & 12/1 (15/8)

Race 3: 53.4% of the remaining units went through – 9/4 & 3/1 (2/1)

Race 4: 25.9% of the remaining units went through – 9/2, 6/1 & 14/1 (9/4)

Race 5: 70.0% of the remaining units went through – 5/2**, 7/2 & 10/1 (5/2**)

Race 6: 27.2% of the units secured the dividend – 8/1 & 3/1 (13/8)

Stats and facts emerging from the last five meetings at Market Rasen this season:

33 races – 9 winning favourites – 29/33 winners scored at a top price of 10/1

Average Placepot dividend: £430.88

Highest dividend: £674.30 - Lowest dividend: £70.00

Leading trainers at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

5 winners—Dan Skelton (16/1, 4/1, 9/4*, 9/5 & 8/15*) – 7 entries at the penultimate stage – 2 options in the Class 5 handicap hurdle event scheduled for 2.40

 

 

TAUNTON:

2017 Placepot dividend: £62.80 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

Race 1: 70.3% units went through – 6/4*, 14/1 & 10/3

Race 2: 46.4% of the remaining units when through – 4/1*, 20/1, 6/1 & 25/1

Race 3: 54.1% of the remaining units went through – 4/1, 9/2 & 25/1 (5/2)

Race 4: 67.4% of the remaining units went through – 7/1, 13/8* & 16/1

Race 5: 75.7% of the remaining units went through – 5/6*, 12/1 & 50/1

Race 6: 12.9% of the units secured the dividend – 9/2 (win only – unplaced fav at 13/8

Stats and facts emerging from the last five meetings at Taunton this season:

33 races – 12 winning favourites – 31/33 winners scored at a top price of 10/1

Average Placepot dividend: £80.94

Highest dividend: £245.30 - Lowest dividend: £18.00

Leading trainers at the corresponding meeting during the study period this season:

4 winners—Colin Tizzard (10/1, 9/2, 9/5 & 11/10*) – 7 entries at the penultimate state - 2 options in the Class 4 two mile handicap hurdle scheduled for 3.55 & 2 options for the Class 3 three and a half mile handicap chase at 4.30

 

I will be back with you bright and early on Tuesday morning with the analysis for Hereford (weather permitting)

Placepot Pointers – Monday 12th March

PLUMPTON – MARCH 12

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £53.60 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Plumpton: 

Leg 1 (2.20): 3 (Larry) & 1 (Dell Oro)

Leg 2 (2.50): 1 (Ramore Will), 3 (Le Coeur Net) & 4 (Lillington)

Leg 3 (3.20): 1 (Ballyheigue Bay), 6 (Amberjam) & 2 (Pop Rockstar)

Leg 4 (3.50): 4 (Iconic Sky), 5 (Molly Carew) & 3 (Jubilympics)

Leg 5 (4.20): 6 (Sounds Of Italy) & 3 (Black Franks Angel)

Leg 6 (4.50): 2 (Lubatic) & 4 (King Cnut)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.20: Ten of the last thirteen winners have been sent off at a top price of 11/4 (see further stats below).  Five and six-year-olds have (equally) shared six recent renewals, though Gary Moore has tilted the potential balance in favour of the five-year-olds this time around by having declared LARRY and DELL ORO (both vintage representatives) on this occasion.  The trade press quote of even money and 7/1 in favour of the latter named raider is not working out in the dead of night, with LARRY being the marginal market leader at the time of writing. All of that said, Gary will be mindful that Seaston Spirit is a heavy ground winner who might yet split the pair on the run to the line at the very least.

Favourite factor: Ten of the 17 favourites have won, though four of the other seven market leaders finished out of the frame in races won by horses which were sent off at 33/1 (twice)--20/1--8/1--5/1—11/4--13/8.

 

2.50: Seven-year-olds have won five of the last ten renewals and with RAMORE WILL representing Chris Gordon who won with all of his five runners on the corresponding day last year (946/1 accumulator), I cannot leave the top weight out of the mix, despite the fact that faster ground would have been preferable.  I should (perhaps) remind readers that I flagged up Chris’s runners last year before he snared the five-timer. Others of interest here include LE COEUR NET and LILLINGTON.

Favourite factor: 23 of the last 26 available toteplacepot positions have been claimed by horses starting at 8/1 or less (four winning favourites).  Four of the other eight market leaders secured additional toteplacepot positions.

Record of the course winners in the second race:

1/3—Ramore Will (good)

1/3—Le Coeur Lad (soft)

1/16—Sir Hubert (heavy)

 

3.20: 15/2 about POP ROCKSTAR looks a tad big in a place this morning, albeit I prefer the chance of BALLYHEIGUE BAY despite the fact that seven pound claimer Harry Reed will have to be at his ‘calculating best’ if Chris Gordon’s raider makes the running as was the case at Ascot over a shorter trip the last day.  AMBERJAM might make BALLYHEIGUE BAY pull out all the stops close home.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Plumpton card.

Record of the course winners in the third event on the card:

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2/5—Ballyheigue Bay (good to soft & soft)

3/8—Tambura ( 2 x soft & good to soft)

1/5—Clondaw Bisto (heavy)

1/3—Sandhurst Lad (good to soft)

 

3.50: Lucy Wadham boasts definite claims of a potential double on the card via her two runners, with ICONIC SKY rounding off Lucy’s afternoon having saddled Amberjam in the previous contest.  That said, Lucy will have done her homework which will have informed her that both MOLLY CAREW and JUBILYMPICS have won under these conditions in the past.  LOVES DESTINATION is another to consider in an interesting contest.

Favourite factor: This is another new race on the Plumpton programme.

Record of the course winners in the field:

2/6—Loves Destination (soft & heavy)

4/13—Ding Ding (2 x good – good to soft – soft)

1/6—Snippetydoodah (heavy)

 

4.20: Seven-year-olds lead the eight-year-olds 5-3 via the last twelve renewals during the last thirteen years.  Indeed, seven-year-olds have won five of the last nine contests; so why then (trainers) are vintage representatives only conspicuous by their absence this time around?   Upwards and onwards in positive mode (I guess) by suggesting that eight-year-old BACK FRANKS ANGEL could be the each way call in the short field contest, though SOUNDS OF ITALY is a more logical winner via the form book.  The Lion Dancer (Charlie Mann saddled the winner last year) is the other plausible winner in the field from my viewpoint.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.

Favourite factor: 29 of the 32 horses to claim toteplacepot positions to date started at 9/1 or less.  Five of the thirteen market leaders have finished in the frame, statistics which include four winners.

 

4.50: Five of the last six winners have carried a minimum weight of 10-12 and the pick of this year’s four ‘qualifiers’ will hopefully prove to be LUBATIC and KING CNUT.

Favourite factor: Eight renewals split the last two winning favourites in this event (10/3 last year and 6/4 in 2008) albeit eight winners during the last decade scored at a top price of 13/2.  Only two of the last six market leaders have finished in the frame, not that this was a Placepot event on last year’s card.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Plumpton card on Monday – followed by their ratios at the track this season and then their five year figures + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

4 runners—Chris Gordon (4/29 – loss of 2 points) – 24/156 +19

3—Johnny Farrelly (0/5) – 5/26 – loss of 2

3—Gary Moore (13/58 +6) – 56/276 – loss of 12

2—Lawney Hill (1/5 +1) – 7/33 +12

2—Ron Hodges (First runners here this season) – 0/2

2—Anthony Honeyball (4/18 – loss of 8) – 17/58 – loss of 10

2—Neil King (2/14 – loss of 5) – 10/69 – loss of 28

2—Neil Mulholland (5/19 – marginal loss) – 12/74 – loss of 12

2—Seamus Mullins (2/19 – loss of 3) – 14/129 – loss of 53

2—Richard Rowe (1/9 – loss of 3) – 6/64 – loss of 30

2—Lucy Wadham (1/4 – level profit/loss this term) – 2/20 – loss of 14

+ 15 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

41 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Stratford: £98.60 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Taunton: No corresponding meeting on the Monday of Cheltenham week

Chelmsford: £43.60 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

 

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday 20th February

TAUNTON – FEBRUARY 20

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £116.50 (7 favourites: 3 winners--2 placed--2 unplaced)

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Taunton: 

Leg 1 (2.10): 1 (The Russian Doyen) & 13 (Esprit De Somoza)

Leg 2 (2.40): 1 (Chilli Filli) & 7 (Oscar Rose)

Leg 3 (3.10): 9 (Cucklington), 3 (Muffins For Tea) & 1 (Will O’The West)

Leg 4 (3.45): 2 (Coiltte Lass), 1 (Unison) & 6 (Black Mischief)

Leg 5 (4.15): 4 (Lillington) & 7 (Bajardo)

Leg 6 (4.50): 5 (Black Narcissus), 1 (Odello) & 8 (Bisoubisou)

 

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.10: I was expecting some overnight support for the Paul Nicholls raider CHOIX DES ARMES following a wind operation for Paul’s six-year-old gelding but all the cash has been for ESPRIT DE SOMOZA from the Nick Williams yard.  There is monetary evidence (via the exchanges) that Nick’s Huntingdon winner is expected to follow up his 20/1 Huntingdon success after a fairly ordinary effort on his Sandown debut.  Whether the recent victory warrants a quote of 4/7 from Betfred/Tote is open to question, especially with another winner in the field (THE RUSSIAN DOYEN) and an interesting Dan Skelton newcomer in his Sea The Stars gelding SEA OF MYSTERY.  This race will answer a few questions either way.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the card with which to open proceedings

 

2.40: Tread carefully here (see favourites stats below) because although only a few horses in the field make any appeal from a win perspective, such cash should be kept for another day aside from our Placepot interest.  The likes of OSCAR ROSE and CHILLI FILLI will surely figure in the finish at the business end of proceeding, closely followed by BIG ROBIN I’ll wager, but that’s where my interest ends outside of my Placepot permutation.  The two ‘main players’ from my viewpoint hail from the in form (respective) yards of Fergal O’Brien and Henry Daly who comes here on a four timer via recent stats of 10/27.

Favourite factor: All three (very short) odds on favourites had finished in the frame via the first three renewals, though only one had prevailed from a win perspective.  The ratio increased last year with the 15/8 prevailing from the Nicky Henderson yard.

 

3.10: Colin Tizzard secured a 14/1 double on the corresponding card two years ago whereby the win and place chances of both CUCKLINGTON and MUFFINS FOR TEA are respected.  Colin has four chances on the card and I could envisage the trainer saddling a winner or two, especially as Paul Nicholls has only declared two inmates at a venue where he has ‘run riot’ on several occasions.  I’m also adding WILL O’THE WEST into the Placepot mix, believing that this contest could blow thousands of Placepot units out of the equation heading towards the halfway stage of the card.

Favourite factor: Last year’s (Nicky Henderson trained) 9/4 favourite was one of the two horses in the field which failed to complete the course in the first running of this event.

 

3.45: Five-year-olds have won four of the seven contests thus far, whilst five of the last six gold medallists have carried a minimum burden of 11-1.  Five-year-olds are only conspicuous by their absence this time around (wake up trainers), whilst UNISON is the only horse with a tick in the box via weight trends given the various jockey claims.  Paul Nicholls has saddled two winners in the last four years (alongside a silver medallist) whereby the chance of COILLTE LASS is respected despite the 9/1 quote by Stan James (8/1 across the board elsewhere). The reserve nomination is awarded to BLCK MISCHIEF.

Favourite factor: Four of the eight market leaders have finished in the frame (two winners at 7/4 & 5/2**) via seven renewals to date.

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Record of the course winners in the fourth event:

1/2—Unison (soft)

1/2—Colillte Lass (good)

1/2—Our Merlin (soft)

1/52—Dovils Date (soft)

 

4.15: Ballyegan is the only horse on the Taunton card to have won at the track on more than one occasion (see stats below), though even a seven pound claimer might not be enough for the old boy to sneak into the frame, let alone win the contest.  LILLINGTON makes a great deal of appeal and it’s worth noting that there is plenty of (realistic) money in the positive exchange queue for Colin Tizzard’s final runner on the card at the time of writing.  Others for the mix include BAJARDO and (possibly) CKALCO DES LOGES.

Favourite factor: This is another new race on the Taunton programme.

Record of the course winner in the fifth contest on the card:

1/4—Triple Chief (good)

1/1—Bajardo (good)

4/16—Ballyegan (3 x good to soft & soft)

 

4.50: Richie McLernon rode a lovely race aboard Regal Encore for us on Saturday and I’ve a notion that the underrated pilot could go close aboard BLACK NARCISSUS in the finale.  The potential market leaders in the field hold obvious Placepot chances at the very least, namely ODELLO and BISOUBISOU.

Favourite factor: The first two favourites obliged at 5/2 & 13/8 before one of the two 13/2 joint favourites finished in the money twelve months ago without winning contest.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Taunton card on Tuesday – followed by stats this season (in brackets) + their five year ratios at the track + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

4 runners—Colin Tizzard (4/25 – loss of 4 points) – 15/107 – loss of 23

3—Nigel Hawke (1/13 – loss of 9) – 3/57 – loss of 40

3—David Pipe (1/14 – loss of 11) – 17/163 – loss of 75

3—Dan Skelton (0/13) – 10/56 – loss of 18

3—Tim Vaughan (0/14) – 8/86 – loss of 40

2—Bob Buckler (0/2) – 7/50 – loss of 15

2—Henry Daly (0/1) – 1/10 loss of 6

2—Jimmy Frost (1/6 +4) – 2.45 – loss of 24

2—Paul Nicholls (6/31 – loss of 19) – 56/184 – loss of 11

2—Jeremy Scott (2/5 +7) – 8/52 – loss of 14

2—Evan Williams (0/16) – 13/92 loss of 17

2—Venetia Williams (0/2) – 9/59 – loss of 9

2—Kayley Woollacott (0/2) – 0/2

+ 30 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

62 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Wetherby: £216.40 – 8 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Wolverhampton: £40.30 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Sunday 4th January

MUSSELBURGH – FEBRUARY 4

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £60.60 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Sunday's Placepot permutation at Musselburgh: 

Leg 1 (12.50): 3 (Cousin Oscar), 5 (Celtic Flames) & 6 (The Last But One)

Leg 2 (1.25): 1 (We Have A Dream) & 6 (Uptown Funk)

Leg 3 (2.00): 3 (Claimantakinforgan) & 5 (Simply The Betts)

Leg 4 (2.35): 1 (Mr Whipped), 4 (Red River) & 3 (Ravenhill Road)

Leg 5 (3.10): 11 (Jump For Dough), 5 (Cresswell Legend) & 3 (Connetable)

Leg 6 (3.45): 7 (Golden Investment) & 6 (Carlton Ryan)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Sunday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.50:  CELTIC FLAMES looks a tad too big at 11/1 in several places at the time of writing and I could fancy his Placepot chance, though the trade press 5/1 quote about COUSIN OSCAR always looked fanciful, especially when taking Donald McCain’s recent ratio into account.  Donald has saddled 13 of his last 36 runners to winning effect, stats which have produced 29 points of level stake profit.  Equally however, the 2/1 price chalked against COUSIN OSCAR looks plenty short enough, whereby I will also be adding THE LAST BUT ONE into the mix on his chasing debut.
Favourite factor: This is a new race with which to open proceedings at Musselburgh today.

 

1.25: WE HAVE A DREAM is very much the horse to beat after landing his hat trick the last day, the three relevant victories have been gained by an aggregate of 22 lengths.  Nicky secured a short priced (9/2) treble at Sandown yesterday and the first of his three runners on the card should win with the minimum of fuss.  I’ll take a punt on course and distance winner UPTOWN FUNK to fill the forecast position, with the Keith Dalgleish team saddling winners for fun at present (recent stats of 6/23 – LSP of 39 points).
Favourite factor: Nicky Henderson will be hoping that We Have A Dream can become the fifth winning favourite in the last six years in this event.

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/1—Uptown Funk (good to soft)

 

2.00: CLAIMANTAKINFORGAN looks a little more vulnerable than Nicky’s market leader in the previous race from my viewpoint though that said, the next two horses in the betting are not attracting any money at the time of writing.  That leaves SIMPLY THE BETTS as the alternative option, though the 22/1 quote about Ballyvic Boru might not last too long this morning I’ll wager.
Favourite factor: Two of the three favourites thus far have finished in the frame without winning their respective contests.

Record of the course winners in the third contest:

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2/3—Beyond The Clouds (2 x good)

1/1—Ballyvic Boru

 

2.35: This is a quality Class 2 (Albert Bartlett) trail and no mistake, especially with MR WHIPPED having been declared.  There are some interesting (contrasting) market movements regarding Nicky Henderson’s raider however, because although overnight support with a few firms has seen the favourite shorten to 8/13 in places, 10/11 is freely available on the exchanges at the time of writing.  RED RIVER and PRESENT MAN are other horses to consider whilst northern hopes lie with RAVENHILL ROAD.  One trend looks sure to go ‘belly up’ this afternoon, with six-year-olds coming into the race on a five timer, with just the two ‘rags’ representing the vintage on this occasion.
Favourite factor: Three of the six favourites have snared Placepot positions via five renewals.  There are two winning favourites to report, albeit they were accompanied by two gold medallists which were returned at 22/1 & 10/1 on two occasions.

 

3.10: Dual course winner JUMP FOR DOUGH (seemingly) looks to be taking on the southern raiders by himself on behalf of ‘northern’ stables, with Lucinda Russell’s Milan gelding in search of a hat trick this afternoon.  CRESSWELL LEGEND has already landed his treble and with Kim Bailey having saddled four winners of late, David Bass has a chance if improving his 18% strike rate for the stable this season in today’s grade/company.   Given the 10/1 and 9/2 (respective) prices for CONNETABLE and STAMP YOUR FEET, I’ll opt for the first named (Paul Nicholls) raider to claim the other Placepot position.

Favourite factor: Both (11/4 & 11/8) market leaders had obliged, before last year’s 7/2 favourite missed out on a Placepot position when finishing fourth behind horses which filled the frame at odds of 15/2, 7/1 & 40/1.

Record of the course winners in the fifth race:

1/1--Cresswell Legend (good to soft)

1/6--Arthurs Secret (good)

2/3--Jump For Dough (good to soft & soft)

 

3.45: GOLDEN INVESTMENT and CARLTON RYAN have not suddenly become big movers in the market this morning but there is plenty of realistic positive money in the exchange queues in the dead of night to suggest that at least one of these two horses should land the Placepot dividend between them, if we were live going into the last leg.
Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is another new race on the Musselburgh programme.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Musselburgh card on Sunday:

7 runners—Brian Ellison

6—Lucinda Russell

5—Paul Nicholls

4—Tom George

3—Kim Bailey

3—Micky Henderson

3—Donald McCain

2—Jennie Candlish

2—Keith Dalgleish

2—Mick Easterby

2—Alan Fleming

+ 16 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

55 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Taunton: 167.70 – 6 favourites – 2 winners & 4 unplaced

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 20th January

ASCOT – JANUARY 20

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: Meeting abandoned

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Ascot: 

Leg 1 (12.40): 1 (Nayati) & 2 (Oistrakh Le Noir)

Leg 2 (1.15): 5 (Red Devil Star), 6 (Uhlan Bute) & 1 (Chef D’Equipe)

Leg 3 (1.50): 1 (Le Bag Au Roi), 5 (Midnight Tune) & 2 (Dusky Legend)

Leg 4 (2.25): 11 (Oxwich Bay), 6 (Night Of Sin) & 8 (Jabulani)

Leg 5 (3.00): 3 (Acting Lass), 6 (Guitar Pete) & 1 (Tenor Nivernais)

Leg 6 (3.35): 5 (Un De Sceaux) & 1 (Brain Power)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

12.40: Alan King has won the last two renewals when represented whereby the chance of NAYATI is thoroughly respected.  That said, Ben Pauling has a typical (import) type here in OISTRAKH LE NOIR for a set of owners who have enjoyed more than their fair share of success in recent years. Conditions will not pose a problem for either horse from what we have witnessed to date and though I wouldn’t particularly care to choose between the two at the time of writing, both names go into the Placepot mix without hesitation.  There is a level of support on the exchanges for Gary Moore’s newcomer Et Moir Alors, though Gary’s Kap Rock gelding would do amazingly well to give the first mentioned pair experience and a beating, even in receipt of six pounds from the relevant rivals.
Favourite factor: Eight of the last nine renewals have been won by market leaders whilst two horses returned at 100/30 prevailed in the first two contests.

 

1.15: Philip Hobbs has been enduring a poor run of form by his high standards since Christmas, despite landing a treble at Sandown/Wincanton a fortnight ago.  Just one of his subsequent 13 horses have won and the fact that an average of less than one runner a day during the period tells you all you need to know.  That said, CHEF D’EQUIPE has Placepot credentials for all to see, albeit the likes of (good to soft) course winner RED DEVIL STAR and (to a fashion) UHLAN BUTE are preferred from a win perspective.
Favourite factor: The inaugural 5/2 favourite was one of two runners that failed to complete the course.  Horses filled the Placepot frame at odds of 14/1, 5/1 and 16/1 two years ago in the relevant contest.

Record of the course winner in the second race:

1/4—Red Devil Star (good to soft)

1.50: Two in form trainers clash here and no mistake, naming Anthony Honeyball (MIDNIGHT TUNE) and Warren Greatrex (LE BAG AU ROI) as the handlers who have rarely had their horses in better form down the years, a statement which certainly applies to Anthony (four of his last six runners have won) for sure.  DUSKY LEGEND completes my trio against the remaining three contenders in this Grade 2 contest which is confined to mares.
Favourite factor: Five of the eight favourites have been successful from a toteplacepot perspective to date, statistics which include three winners.

Record of the course winner in the third event:

1/1—Graceful Legend (good to soft)

2.25: Five-year-olds came to the gig on a four-timer in the most recent renewal, with representatives claiming silver and bronze medals when both returned at 10/1.  Vintage representatives are 6/1 to get back to winning ways here before the form book is consulted, with both JABULANI and NIGHT OF SIN boasting each way claims from my viewpoint.  Whether either horse can keep tabs on six-year-old OXWICH BAY at the business end of proceedings remains to be seen. Out of interest, six-year-olds have won the other three contests during the last seven years, stats which also bring Crossed My Mind and Jenkins into the equation.
Favourite factor: Just two of the twelve favourites have obliged to date, whilst only three market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

Record of the course winner in the fourth race on the card:

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1/3—Air Horse One (soft)

 

3.00: There is evidence of overnight support at a double figure price for TENOR NIVERNAIS which comes as no surprise given the (soft) conditions and any further rain can only enhance his chance.  The weight stats are against the Venetia Williams raider however, the last horse having carried 11-12 to victory back in 2008.  I still fancy his chance from a Placepot perspective however, whilst those on Aidan Coleman’s mount at fancy prices will certainly get a decent run for their win and place investments from my viewpoint.  Six of the last seven winners have carried 11-3 or less, a factor which points yours truly in the direction of ACTING LASS and GUITAR PETE as potential winners of the contest. The latter named Nicky Richards northern raider represents the yard which won both of the 2011/12 renewals with Tatenen.
Favourite factor: Five of the nine favourites during the last decade have claimed Placepot positions, though winning favourites during the period were only conspicuous by their absence.  Indeed, three of the last five winners were returned at 25/1, 22/1 and 12/1.

Record of the course winner in the fifth contest:

2/4—Tenor Nivernais (2 x soft)

1/2—Minella Daddy (good to soft)

1/4—Fortunate George (good to soft)

3.35: Paul Nicholls (SAN BENEDETO) has saddled four of the last nine winners of this Grade 1 event (three of which were returned as favourites), though Willie Mullins has ‘interrupted the trainer trend’ these last two years having won with UN DE SCEAUX on both occasions.  Paul suggested a while ago that he was scaling back on his number of runners this season and so it has proved in recent weeks, continuing today with just the one declaration on the Ascot card who is something of a no-hoper according to media types.  At 25/1 (thereabouts), SAN BENEDETO could provide forecast fodder from my viewpoint, especially if BRAIN POWER fails to complete the course again.  Otherwise, UN DE SCEAUX should have too many guns close home for Nicky Henderson’s talented seven-year-old, especially at level weights.
Favourite factor: 15 of the 17 winners since the turn of the Millennium have been returned at 5/1 or less, stats which include nine successful favourites.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/1—Brain Power (good to soft)

1/3—San Benedeto (good)

1/1—Un De Sceaux (soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Ascot card on Saturday – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) and career ratios at the track + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

6 runners—Nicky Henderson (5/22 – loss of 11 points) – 38/182 – loss of 45

5—Harry Fry (1/11 – loss of 7) – 13/53 – marginal profit

3—Charlie Longsdon (0/3) – 7/69 +7

3—Nigel Twiston-Davies (1/7 – loss of 2) – 4/55 – loss of 24

3—Venetia Williams (0/6) – 14/93 +31

2—Kim Bailey (0/3) – 4/35 – loss of 3

2—Alan King (1/11 – loss of 4) – 12/90 +12

2—Ben Pauling (2/7 +3) -0 3/21 – loss of 2

2—Lucinda Russell (First runenrs at Ascot this season) – 1/4 +2

+ 28 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

56 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Haydock: £243.30 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Taunton: £116.50 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Lingfield: £70.30 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced

Chelmsford: This is a new meeting

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday 9th January

TAUNTON – JANUARY 9

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £35.30 (7 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation Taunton: 

Leg 1 (12.35): 3 (Kohuma), 1 (Overawed & 4 (Chilli Romance)

Leg 2 (1.05): 4 (Coup De Pinceau) & 1 (As I See It)

Leg 3 (1.35): 6 (King Of Realms) & 1 (Demon D’Aunou)

Leg 4 (2.10): 6 (Orbasa), 1 (Relentless Dreamer) & 5 (Sandy Beach)

Leg 5 (2.45): 7 (Padleyourowncanoe), 2 (Reejah) & 3 (Blairs Cove)

Leg 6 (3.20): 2 (Unioniste) & 3 (Bear’s Affair)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.35: A couple of in form trainers saddle horses here and with previous little else to work with, OVERAWED (Tom George – recent stats of 5/17) and KOHUMA (Robert Walford – 7/28) are the first names on the team sheet.  Although a maiden after twelve assignments to date, the chance for CHILLI ROMANCE to secure another Placepot position is there for all to see.

Favourite factor: This is a new race at Taunton with which to open proceedings.

 

1.05: Pricing up races well before the off is invariably a difficult task, though the lads/lasses in the office of the trade press are (seemingly) well wide of the mark with the 5/4 call about AS I SEE IT.  Harry Fry’s ‘Point’ winner is freely available at 9/4 with four firms at the time of writing and though I cannot eliminate the six-year-old from my Placepot enquiries, the quotes could not prize money out of my possession in the dead of night.  On the flip side of the trade press betting forecast, I doubt there will be much of the projected 4/1 COUP DE PINCEAU available from what I can make of the quiet exchange dealings this morning.

Favourite factor: Although all three favourites have finished of the frame thus far, bookmakers have not had things going all their own way as the top priced winner to date was returned at just 5/1.

 

1.35: Trainer Ian Williams was enjoying a fine last quarter last year before he lost his highly progressive London Prize on an ill-fated day from which the yard has not fully recovered.  Ian will hopefully bounce back here with KING OF REALMS who despite the number of horses involved, seemingly only has one or two to beat.  DEMON D’AUNOU appears to be the pick of the opposition.

Favourite factor: All four market leaders have claimed Placepot positions thus far, albeit we had to wait until last year for the first (1/3) jolly to prevail from a win perspective.  The previous three favourites were beaten at odds of 4/6, 8/11 and 1/2!

 

2.10: The Sandown effort of ORBASA the last day suggests that 10/1 might be a big enough price about the Paul Nicholls representative, albeit consistency would not feature on his curriculum vitae.  Connections will be eyeing RELENTLESS DREAMER and SANDY BEACH as possible dangers, whilst EARTHMOVES is another potential each way play in the contest.

Favourite factor: Last year’s successful 6/4 favourite made up for the complete demise of the inaugural 11/4 market leader the previous season.

Record of the course winners in the fourth race:

1/1—Relentless Dreamer (good)

1/5—Earthmoves (soft)

1/5—Sandy Beach (good to soft)

1/1—Timeforwest (good)

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2.45: Thankfully we look set for a dry (if cloudy) day at Taunton, though it’s a shame that the overnight ground was not in better shape as REEJAH would have been really interesting given his 14/1 odds of offer at the time of writing.  A winner of 6/12 races to date with Nigel Hawke’s yard in blistering form, I’m still going to add the outsider into the Placepot mix and hope for the best.  More logical winners given the projected (soft) conditions include PADLEYOUROWNCANOE and FIDUX.  There has been support for BLAIRS COVE overnight though like REEJAH, better ground would have made the money more interesting.  All in all, this is a really interesting race to watch.

Favourite factor: Two of the three market leaders have finished in the frame, stats which include one (5/2) winner.

Record of the course winners in the fifth event:

1/1—Rejaah (good)

2/7—Here’s Herbie (good & good to soft)

1/1—Padleyourowncanoe (soft)

 

3.20: This looks the right sort of (Hunter Chase) discipline for UNIONISTE given his advancing years.  A really decent type when at the top of his game a few years back, David Maxwell should get a good tune out of the ten-year-old for the ‘local’ Paul Nicholls team.  There are a few alternative options to consider though from a Placepot perspective, BEAR’S AFFAIR looks to be the value for money call.  As a winner of 4/8 assignments at the venue, there will be worse 100/1 chances on the card than Milosam, though connections will probably just be happy to see him complete the course this time around, something that Milosam has only managed to do once via his last seven outings.

Favourite factor: We still await the first successful favourite, whilst just one of three market leaders has secured a Placepot position to date.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/1—Imperial Circus (good)

4/8—Milosam (3 x good + heavy)

1/3—Princely Player (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Taunton card on Tuesday – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) & careers ratio at the track + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

6 runners—Colin Tizzard (3/14 +4) – 34/342 - loss of 131

5—Paul Nicholls (5/22 – loss of 12 points) – 213/818 – loss of 119

4—Harry Fry (0/3) – 23/83 – loss of 12

4—Nigel Hawke (1/4 – level on the season) – 11/237 – loss of 113

4—Nicky Martin (First runners this season) – 0/1

3—Sue Gardner (0/1) – 7/94 – loss of 45

3—Tom George (0/2) – 9/115 – loss of 41

3—Philip Hobbs (0/12) – 148/818 – loss of 80

2—Jack R Barber (0/2) -1/3 – loss of 1

2—Rebecca Curtis (0/5) – 5/35 – loss of 7

2—Mark Gillard (0/1) – 3/104 – loss of 83

2—Ron Hodges (0/1) – 63/738 – loss of 281

2—Martin Keighley (0/2) – 3/45 – loss of 23

2—Alan King (0/6) – 42/250 – loss of 54

2—Richard Mitford-Slade (1/1 +100) – 1/1 +100

2—Jonjo O’Neill (1/5 +10) – 5/110 – loss of 69

2—Richard Price (0/1) – 4/70 – loss of 20

2—Jeremy Scott (1/3 +4) – 12/92 – loss of 20

2—Dan Skelton (0/8) – 10/51 – loss of 13

2—Sam Thomas (First runners this season) – 1/8 +59

2—Evan Williams (0/7) – 36/279 – loss of 40

+ 30 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

88 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Doncaster: £68.60 – 6 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced

Southwell: £25.20 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 30th December

NEWBURY - DECEMBER 30

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £1,747.20 (6 favourites – No winners – 2 placed – 4 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Newbury: 

Leg 1 (12.05): 6 (Nayati) & 2 (Acaro)

Leg 2 (12.40): 6 (Royal Ruby) & 2 (First Flow)

Leg 3 (1.15): 1 (Saint Calvados), 3 (Chirico Vallis) 4 (Remiluc) & 2 (Got Away)

Leg 4 (1.50): 8 (Brave Eagle) & 5 (Huntsman Son)

Leg 5 (2.25): 3 (Knockanrawley), 9 (Henllan Harri) & 7 (Wuff)

Leg 6 (3.00): 5 (Way Back Then), 6 (Dame Rose) & 3 (Mullachys Hill)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.05: Alan King’s runners are still blowing a little too hot and cold for my liking but the trainer has saddled four winners of late and with support coming in for his soft ground flat winner NAYATI, it would be churlish to ignore the claims of Wayne Hutchinson’s mount, especially from a Placepot perspective.  Robert Walford has been on a crest of the wave by comparison whereby I have little (or no) hesitation in nominating ACARO as the main threat.  Special Relation might have to be a well above average type to return with a win after a debut fall at Market Rasen, irrespective of how well he was travelling at the time.
Favourite factor: Nine of the fourteen market leaders (via eleven renewals) have secured Placepot positions to date, statistics which include six successful favourites from a win perspective.

 

12.40:  Nicky Henderson has dominated this event to the point where Nicky’s record is surely the best record in any race under either code.  Nicky comes into the race on a seven timer having won nine renewals during the last decade.  It’s surprising to find that the only horse which failed to win during the sensational run was My Tent Or Yours back in 2012.  Nicky saddles ROYAL RUBY this time around, with connections seemingly having Kim Bailey’s soft ground Lingfield winner FIRST FLOW to beat.  Given the results in recent years, I will be startled if the differential in prices (6/4 – 5/2) was in place by flag fall, especially with the projected favourite (First Flow) having to give ROYAL RUBY five pounds.
Favourite factor: Favourites have won six of the last nine renewals during which time, the biggest priced winner was returned at just 5/1.  Market leaders come to the gig on a four timer on this occasion, whilst eight favourites have secured Placepot positions during the longer period.

 

1.15: Harry Whittington remains an unbelievably underrated trainer in my book (two of his last three runners have won) and his French import SAINT CALVADOS would be the call if asked to name the winner of this contest.  A winner of three of his four races on the continent, Aidan Coleman’s mount would be the call but given that this is the ‘win only’ event on this Placepot card, I would not like to miss out on what might prove to be a really good dividend by ignoring the other three contenders.  That said personally, I will be adding an additional wager by banking on SAINT CALVADOS in this event (alongside the other runners = 72 additional bets), just in case Harry works the oracle again.
Favourite factor: This was deemed to be a new race on the card three years ago as the contest was reduced in trip, with the even money favourite finishing last of the three finishers the first year, before the following 5/2 market leader made amends.  Layers had the last laugh twelve months ago however, when the 5/6 favourite was the only horse in the field not to complete the course.  It should not be forgotten that Cue Card won this race back in 2011 over the additional quarter of a mile as the race was contested in those days.

Record of the course winners in the third contest on the card:

1/5—Remiluc (soft)

 

1.50:  Nicky Henderson’s second (and last) runner on the card is BRAVE EAGLE who is attempting to become the fifth consecutive five-year-old winner of this event.  Dropped a couple of pounds now, Nico’s mount will have few better chances of building on a previous soft ground victory, with HUNTSMAN SON nominated as the main danger.  Nick Williams has his team in fine order (as is so often the case) whereby the chance for Diable De Sivola demands plenty of respect.  That all said, there will be worse outsiders on the card than proven soft/heavy ground performer Sir Antony Browne.
Favourite factor: Five of the six favourites have secured toteplacepot positions (two winners at 11/8 & 13/8) via five contests.

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Record of the course winners in the fourth race:

1/2—Sir Antony Browne (good to soft)

1/2—Wilde Blue Yonder (good to soft)

1/2—Theligny (good to soft – winner of this race last year)

 

2.25: The 'Mandarin' is nothing like the race it once was with six-year-olds having won three of the last six contests, though vintage representatives are only conspicuous by their absence on this occasion.  From a Placepot perspective, there seems no other place to start than with the only course winner in the line up namely KNOCKANRAWLEY, especially with trainer Kim Bailey having won with five of his last seventeen runners which at this time of year, is always a decent ratio to boast.  Having finished ‘in the three’ in 7/8 races on soft ground, KNOCKANRAWLEY has not matched that effort once via three assignments under heavy conditions, though Kim’s nine-year-old should reach the frame today at the very least in this grade/company.  HENLLAN HARRI disappointed in the ‘Badger’ at Wincanton the last day but this is likely to be run at something of a ‘married man’s gallop’ which will suit this dour stayer.  A heavy ground winner in the past, ‘Harri’ is marginally preferred to WUFF as the main threat to the tentative selection.
Favourite factor: Two favourites have won during the last seven renewals, though they were the only market leaders to secure Placepot positions during the period.

Record of the course winners in the ‘Mandarin’:

1/2—Knockanrawley

 

3.00: Five-year-olds have won eight of the last sixteen renewals of the Challow Hurdle, with only an outsider to represent their cause this time around, namely MULLACHYS HILL.  Warren Greatrex is not the type of trainer to casually ‘tilt at windmills’ whereby the declaration is taken seriously by yours truly, especially as underhoof conditions will trouble other runners more than this individual I would wager.  More logical winners in the line up (I grant you) include WAY BACK THEN and DAME ROSE.
Favourite factor: 12 of the 19 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions (eight winners) to date.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/3—Dame Rose (good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Newbury card on Saturday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

3 runners—Alan King (1/16 – loss of 11 points)

2—Kim Bailey (1/2 +2)

2—Tom George (0/5)

2—Nicky Henderson (6/23 +8)

2—Philip Hobbs (3/8 +9)

2—Gary Moore (0/11)

2—Neil Mulholland (0/3)

2—David Pipe (1/4 +4)

2—Oliver Sherwood (1/7 +6)

2—Dan Skelton (1/4 +3)

2—Colin Tizzard (2/12 loss of 2 points)

2—Tim Vaughan (0/2)

+ 23 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

48 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Haydock: Meeting abandoned

Taunton: £42.50 – 6 favourites – No winners – 2 placed – 4 unplaced

Lingfield (A/W): £279.10 – 2 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 14th December

TAUNTON - DECEMBER 14

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £215.60 (8 favourites - 1 winner - 3 placed - 4 unplaced)

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Taunton: 

Leg 1 (12.00): 1 (Brahms De Clermont), 10 (Grapevine) & 2 (Parthenius)

Leg 2 (12.30): 7 (Dan Mcgrue) & 2 (Kings Ryde)

Leg 3 (1.05): 3 (Silent Steps), 5 (Bradford Bridge) & 4 (Never Learn)

Leg 4 (1.35): 1 (New Millennium), 9 (Status Quo) & 6 (Tobacco Road)

Leg 5 (2.10): 5 (Molineaux), 2 (The Welsh Paddies) & 14 (Padleyourowncanoe)

Leg 6 (2.45): 2 (Top Notch) & 4 (Max Ward)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.00:  First and foremost, it will be interesting to read about the going later this morning because here in Bristol, we had a lot of rain yesterday evening.  Keep your eyes peeled for news about the ground because if Taunton had as much of the wet stuff that we endured, ‘good’ will disappear from the going description when the COTC makes his announcement shortly before first light.  BRAHMS DE CLERMONT will have the best of the ground in the opening event which might be just as well given his two good going successes to date.  GRAPEVINE reached a heady official mark of 90 on the level which should put him there of thereabouts in this discipline, whilst Dan Skelton’s Plumpton winner was a soft ground winner back in Germany earlier in his career.
Favourite factor:  This is a new race with which to open proceedings at Taunton on Thursday

Record of the course winners in the opening event:

2/2—Brahms De Clermont (2 x good)

1/2—Show On The Road (good)

 

12.30: Paul Nicholls has secured four gold medals and two of the silver variety via seven contests to date.  Paul saddles DAN MCGRUE this time around, though his old adversary Nicky Henderson (3/3 at the track this season) takes on his old rival on with KINGS RYDE.  Alan King had saddled nineteen consecutive losers before notching a 59/1 Sandown double the other day and the trainer will be hoping that CANELO can continue the ‘recovery’.

Favourite factor: Four of the seven favourites (three beaten at odds on at 8/15, 4/6 & 5/6) have secured toteplacepot positions thus far (two winners at 8/15 & 2/5).

 

1.05: A pig of a short field race to assess in all honesty, whereby it will come as no surprise if the poor record of favourites (albeit via just two renewals) continues.  That said, it’s difficult to dismiss the Placepot chances of fancied types such as SILENT STEPS and BRADFORD BRIDGE, whilst adding Colin Tizzard’s ‘second string’ NEVER LEARN into the equation. New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way & Placepot perspectives.

Favourite factor: Both of the inaugural 3/1 joint favourites failed to complete the course, as did last year’s odds on favourite in a three horse event when failing to complete the course.

 

1.35: Something has to give on this card if the Placepot dividend is going to pay well and I’m going big and bold here by opposing Our Merlin, which some readers will argue against as Robert Walford’s hat trick seeker still receives weight from a few rivals despite being hit with a double penalty of late. Always looking for value, I’m opting for NEW MILLENNIUM, STATUS QUO and David Pipe’s recent course and distance winner TOBACCO ROAD to get us through to the fifth leg. The latter named Pipe raider is set to be ridden by Tom Scudamore who is riding with plenty of confidence these days.  The older Tom gets, the more the ‘Scudamore stamp’ is in evidence, following in the illustrious footsteps of his father and grandfather.  What caps it all, is that he seems like a ready decent chap too when interviewed.

Favourite factor: Three of the five favourites have secured toteplacepot position by finishing second in their respective events.

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Record of the course winners in the fourth race:

1/2—Tobacco Road (good)

1/2—Jaunty Inflight (good to firm)

 

2.10: Six-year-olds have won four of the six renewals thus far, with MOLINEAUX appearing to be the pick of the three vintage representatives on this occasion.  The record of the six-year-olds is all the more impressive, given that lone representatives have lined up on the majority of occasions in the contest.  THE WELSH PADDIES has to be included, whilst my trio against the field is completed by the recent soft ground Exeter winner PADLEYOUROWNCANOE.
Favourite factor: Six of the nine market leaders have secured Placepot positions via six renewals, statistics which include three (9/2, 11/4 & 3/1**) winners.

Record of the course winners in the fifth contest on the card:

1/3—Garo De Juilley (good)

2/6—Heres Herbie (good & good to soft)

 

2.45:  This is the Grade 2 ‘Peterborough Chase’ which was transferred onto this card after Huntingdon’s meeting was abandoned last weekend.  Connections of TOP NOTCH will not have worried too much about the rain which was falling in the west-country last night and this wonderfully athletic six-year-old gelding will find these fences to his liking, bearing in mind that he was seen to be almost ‘hurdling’ the bigger obstacles at Ascot the last day which was breath-taking to witness.  The trade press quote of 8/13 is fanciful in the extreme with 2/5 being the likely starting price.  If the two prices do not seem to represent much of a difference to new readers, it’s as well to note that the differential is about the same as a horse being backed in from 9/1 to 4/1.  Last year’s winner (stable companion) Josses Hill has also been declared, though I prefer the 22/1 chance MAX WARD as the forecast call, provided that the ground does not cut up too much prior to flag fall.
Favourite factor: Although only three favourites have prevailed during the last decade, nine of the winners scored at a top price of 15/2.  Five of the ten market leaders have finished in the frame.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/1—Max Ward (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Taunton card on Thursday – followed by their stats at the track this season + Profits/losses accrued:

6—Paul Nicholls (3/10 – loss of 5 points)

6—Colin Tizzard (2/6 +5)

5—Nicky Henderson (3/3 +9)

5—David Pipe (1/8 +5)

4—Neil Mulholland (0/3)

3—Philip Hobbs (0/7)

3—Alan King (0/2)

3—Gary Moore (No previous runners this season)

3—Jonjo O’Neill (0/2)

3—Dan Skelton (0/3)

3—Tim Vaughan (0/6)

2—David Dennis (No previous runners)

2—Chris Down (0/5)

2—Alexandra Dunn (0/6)

2—Harry Fry (0/1)

2—Charlie Longsdon (No previous runners)

2—Richard Phillips (0/1)

2—Christian Williams (No previous runners)

2—Richard Woollacott (0/3)

+29 trainers with one runner on the card

89 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Newcastle (NH): £51.60 – 6 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced

Warwick: £147.80 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Chelmsford: £176.80 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

 

Stat of the Day, 14th December 2017

Wednesday's Result :

3.00 Lingfield : Attain @ 11/4 BOG 3rd at 11/4 Tracked leaders, ridden over 1f out, not quicken inside final furlong

Next up is Thursday's...

3.15 Taunton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Workbench @ 11/2 BOG

A Class 3, 4yo+ Handicap Chase over 2m2.5f on Good to Soft ground worth £8,862 to the winner...

And a 9 yr old gelding in decent nick, having won two of his last five starts including a win last time out at Sandown 6 days ago in this grade.

Now he's trained by Dan Skelton and almost inevitably ridden by Harry Skelton and over the 6 years of SotD, I've lost track of the number of times I've advised you to keep an eye on this pair, so in the interests of brevity and/or sanity, I'll not bore you by repeating myself!

One angle about the Skelton "boys", I might not have mentioned previously (or recently anyway!) however, is this quite relevant one...

...Dan + Harry + Males + Top 4 finish LTO 4-15 days earlier + April to December = 36/102 (35.3% SR) for 12.34pts (+12.1% ROI) when sent off at odds of 7/1 and shorter. So, basically males turned back out fairly quickly after a decent run and not now considered a longshot.

Of these 102 qualifiers...

  • LTO winners are 20/50 (40%) for 1.79pts (+3.6%), tending to get well backed, so we need our early prices!
  • chasers are 15/40 (37.5%) for 10.13pts (+25.3%)
  • over trips of 2m1.5f to 2m4.5f : 16/37 (43.2%) for 21.48pts (+58.1%)
  • 8/9 yr olds are 10/25 (40%) for 8.41pts (+33.6%)
  • and on Good to Soft ground : 6/17 (35.3%) for 5.46pts (+32.1%)

Whilst more generally, in handicap chases, 9 & 10 yr olds priced at 15/8 to 13/2 within 7 days of their last run are 106/419 (25.3% SR) for 90.2pts (+21.5% ROI) since 2009, from which...

  • over trips of 2m to 2.75m : 81/225 (29.5%) for 101.6pts (+36.9%)
  • LTO winners are 35/120 (29.2%) for 42.6pts (+35.5%)
  • and LTO winners racing over 2m to 2.75m : 25/81 (30.9%) for 35.6pts (+44%)

..giving us... a 1pt win bet on Workbench @ 11/2 BOG which was offered by Betfair & Paddy Power at 6.30pm on Wednesday, with plenty of acceptable 5/1 BOG available elsewhere. And to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.15 Taunton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Thursday November 30

TAUNTON – NOVEMBER 30

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £24.30 (7 favourites – 1 winner – 4 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Taunton: 

Leg 1 (12.20): 1 (Challico) & 4 (Diese Des Bieffes)

Leg 2 (12.50): 1 (Brahms De Clermont) & 2 (Barn Hill)

Leg 3 (1.20): 3 (One Of Us), 1 (Gold Mountain) & 2 (Pengo’s Boy)

Leg 4 (1.50): 1 (Lovely Job), 4 (Beau De Brizais) & 3 (Captain Buck’s)

Leg 5 (2.20): 2 (Cabernet D’Alene), 10 (Serveontime) & 8 (Goal)

Leg 6 (2.50): 1 (Double Accord), 3 (Thegirlfrommilan) & 2 (More Than Luck)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.20: Two obvious places to start and finish in this event with Paul Nicholls (CHALLICO) taking on Nicky Henderson (DIESE DES BEIFFES).  This is very much Paul’s part of the country; hence the two horses being listed in order of preference.  Next!

Favourite factor: The two favourites to date have snared gold and silver medals alongside Placepotpositions.

Record of the course winners in the opening event:

1/1—Challico (good to firm)

1/1—Show On The Road (good)

 

12.50: Paul Nicholls should secure a quick double on the card having entered BRAHMS DE CLERMONT, albeit his Kayf Tara representative has been recorded as a beaten favourite on his last two outings at odds of 4/6 and 5/4.  The Philip Hobbs newcomer BARN HILL is a well related type and as the only trainer to have secured a double on the corresponding card (2013) during the last five years, Philip’s entry catches the eye in another poor race with which to start the meeting.

Favourite factor: This is the second division of the opening race on the card whereby the same stats apply. The two favourites to date have snared gold and silver medals alongside Placepotpositions.

Record of the course winners in the second race:

1/1—Brahms De Clermont (good)

 

1.20: I have made the point several times down the years that handicap hurdle races beyond the minimum trip offer the worst favourite record in either sector of the sport and the favourite stats below suggest that this is a good race to confirm that point.  Having secured just three bronze medals from six assignments to date, ONE OF US might not appear to be the logical call but there is enough money in the positive queue on the exchanges in the dead of night to suggest that this could be his day.  GOLD MOUNTAIN offers some value for money from a Placepot perspective given the good ground which appears to suit Harry Cobden’s mount, whilst course winner PENGO’S BOY completes my trio against the remaining four runners in this ‘short field’ contest.  New readers might like to know that the term ‘short field’ relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.

Favourite factor: Only one favourite has won via seven contests, though six winners scored at a top price of 11/2.  Five of the eight market leaders snared Placepot positions

Record of the course winners in the third contest on the card:

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1/4—Gold Mountain (good to firm)

1/3—Pengo’s Boy (good to soft)

 

1.50: This could easily be diluted into a ‘win only’ contest and the trio to concentrate on appear to be LOVELY JOB, BEAU DE BRIZAIS and CAPTAIN BUCK’S, the trio being listed in order of preference at the time of writing.  I suggested yesterday that the two four runner races at Wetherby would ensure that the eventual Placepot dividend would be worth winning and so it proved, despite the fact that favourites won both events.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 11/4 favourite prevailed before last year’s 10/3 market leader was badly hampered at the third last before unseating his rider.

Record of the course winners in the fourth race:

1/3—Captain Buck’s

2/4—Beau Du Brizais (good & good to firm)

 

2.20: Ambrais Des Marais look the most vulnerable favourite on the card with 5/2 freely available via the exchanges about what is a 7/4 chance right across the bookmaking boards.  Value for money appears to be in the offing about the 4/1 quote by Hills/Betfred/Tote relating to the chance of CABERNET D’ALENE. Both of the Nick Williams/Lizzie Kelly raiders on the card have decent chances according to the gospel of yours truly, with their five-year-old raider possibly following One Of Us into the area reserved for winners this afternoon.  Others to consider include SERVEONTIME and GOAL who is marginally preferred to Ballyegan, mainly because of the weight stats.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 2/1 favourite finished nearer last than first (10/17), before the 15/8 market leader twelve months ago found a (Paul Nicholls trained) 12/1 chance too strong at the business end of the contest.

Record of the course winners in the penultimate leg:

1/3—Cabernet D’Alene

1/8—Goal (good)

 

2.55: Eight of the ten winners have carried a minimum burden of 10-11, statistics which reduces the ‘dead eight’ field down to four if you take the figures seriously.  The fact that seven-year-olds have won three of the last eight renewals suggests that DOUBLE ACCORD and THEGIRLFROMMILAN (10/1 with Hills looks to big) are the pair to home in on, from a Placepot perspective at least.  I’m adding the insurance value of MORE THAN LUCK into the mix.

Favourite factor: Two winning favourites to report, with six of the last seven market leaders having finished in the frame.  Seven of the last eight winners have scored at a top price of 9/2.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/4—Double Accord (good)

4/15—Ballyegan (3 x good to soft & soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Taunton card on Thursday followed by their ratio at the track this season + Profit/loss accrued:

4 runners—Philip Hobbs (0/3)

4—Paul Nicholls (2/6 – loss of 3 points)

3—Johnny Farrelly (0/4)

3—Evan Williams (0/3)

2—Rebecca Curtis (0/1)

2—Vic Dartnall (No previous runners at Taunton this season)

2—Alexandra Dunn (0/4)

2—Jimmy Frost (0/1)

2—Nicky Henderson (1/1 +3)

2—Anthony Honeyball (1/2 +1)

2—Tim Vaughan (0/4)

2—Robert Walford (No previous runners)

2—Nick Williams (1/3 – slight profit)

+ 36 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

68 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Musselburgh: Meeting abandoned

Towcester: £211.00 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

 

Stat of the Day, 30th November 2017

Wednesday's Result :

3.55 Wolverhampton : Skyva @ 6/1 BOG WON at 7/2 Tracked leaders, effort on inner over 1f out, pushed along to lead near finish, wining by a head.

The last selection of another profitable month runs in Thursday's...

1.20 Taunton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Silent Steps @ 5/2 BOG

A Class 4, 4yo+Novice Handicap Hurdle over 3m on Good ground worth £4549 to the winner.

And a 6 yr old mare making a seasonal reappearance after also moving yards. She finished her last campaign well, coming home as a runner-up in each of her last two starts for trainer Nicky Henderson. People often think that if a horse leaves Nicky's yard, then it's already on the wane, but when you find that this girl has ended up with Paul Nicholls, that necessarily won't always be the case!

Paul Nicholls' horses with more than their fair share of races, especially at the smaller provincial venues, but are generally overbet and therefore poor value from a punting perspective despite the high strike rate, but if you dig deep enough, there are still some angles worth pursuing.

One of those angles is actually very simple...Back Paul's hurdlers at Taunton! Now that seems very basic/straightforward for an SotD angle, but since 2009 this approach has found 74 winners from 210 (35.2% SR)for level stakes profits of 40.5pts (+19.3% ROI), which is excellent for blindly backing a top trainer.

And I could leave it there, but you know I won't/can't! So, of those 210 Taunton hurdlers...

  • Class 4 = 45/127 (35.4%) for 30.4pts (+24%)
  • In Novice races : 49/121 (40.5%) for 19.5pts (+16.1%)
  • from November to January : 40/93 (43%) for 71.63pts (+77%)
  • in handicaps : 19/77 (24.7%) for 20.4pts (+26.5%)
  • 6 yr olds are 22/58 (37.9%) for 7.9pts (+13.6%)
  • at 3m/3m0.5f : 7/28 925%) for 4pts (+14.7%)
  • making their yard debut : 10/24 (41.7%) for 15.8pts (+65.6%)
  • females are 5/12 (41.7%) for 2.6pts (+21.5%)
  • and in Novice handicaps : 3/9 (33.3%) for 2.17pts (+24.1%)

...which points us towards... a 1pt win bet on Silent Steps @ 5/2 BOG which was widely available at 6.55pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.20 Taunton

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P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 16th November

LUDLOW - NOVEMBER 16

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £61.10 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Ludlow: 

Leg 1 (1.25): 2 (Cockney Wren) & 8 (Sunshade)

Leg 2 (1.55): 2 (Cervin), 6 (It’s a Sting) & 1 (Cervin)

Leg 3 (2.25): 1 (Cresswell Legend), 6 (Black Sam Bella) & 4 (Haul Away)

Leg 4 (3.00): 9 (Mullaghmurphy Blue), 6 (Bollin Line) & 1 (Market Road)

Leg 5 (3.30): 4 (Petite Power) & 5 (By The Boardwalk)

Leg 6 (4.00): 7 (Cubswin) & 4 (Pheonix Dawn)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.25: Although COCKNEY WREN is still a shade of odds on at the time of writing, money is coming in for SUNSHADE and it is worth acknowledging that Nicky Henderson has saddled five winners in as many years at this corresponding meeting.  That said, Harry Fry (COCKNEY WREN) has saddled eight of his last sixteen runners to winning effect and this pair should dominate proceedings at the business end of the contest.  Grania O’Malley looks booked for third spot at half decent odds from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 4/5 favourite duly obliged for the Alan King yard.

 

1.55: Stuart Edmunds has his team in fine form whereby it might not pay to dismiss stable representative LEGAL OKAY too quickly, as Stuart attempts to secure his fourth success with his tenth recent runner.  More logical winners to the untrained eye appear to include ITS A STING and another each way type, namely CERVIN from last year’s successful yard.

Favourite factor: The market got the second race right as well twelve months ago as the inaugural 7/2 favourite scored for the Tim Vaughan stable.

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/2—Go On Henry (good)

 

2.25: Four and five-year-olds have secured 19 of the 23 available toteplacepot positions between them with five-year-olds leading 5-2 from a win perspective. The pick of the relevant runners on this occasion will hopefully prove to be BLACK SAM BELLA and HAUL AWAY from the in form stables of Dan Skelton and Nicky Henderson respectively.  That said, Kim Bailey also has his team in fine form whereby the lone course winner in the field has to be included in the mix, namely CRESSWELL LEGEND.  It’s worth taking into account Kim’s raids at this venue this season which have produced a ratio of 5/8, figures which have produced 17 points of level stake profit.

Favourite factor: Five of the ten market leaders (three of them won their respective races) have secured Placepot positions to date.

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Record of the course winner in the third race on the card:

1/1—Cresswell Legend (good)

 

3.00: I don’t like siding with ‘favourites’ but the top three horses in the market in the dead of night really do stand out from the crowd.  Irish raider MULLAGHMURPHY BLUE takes in a hurdle event for the first time but anything like the form he showed at Musselburgh when winning recently would be good enough to go very close in this grade/company.  Hat trick seeker BOLLIN LINE has been very well placed by Lucingda Egerton again, whilst MARKET ROAD represents Evan Williams who is second in the list to Nicky Henderson at this corresponding meeting in recent times on the three winner mark. The result might be best served from a Placepot perspective if just one of the trio reach the frame alongside two ‘rags’, especially as I have no compunction to become involved from a win viewpoint.

Favourite factor: Two of the four market leaders (both winners of their respective events at 9/4 & 7/2**) have claimed Placepot positions.

Record of the course winners in the fourth event:

1/1—Bollin Line (good)

1/2—Mr Bachster (good)

 

3.30: The strongest of the shorter priced runners in this event at the time of writing was very much PETITE POWER from Fergal’s O’Brien’s yard which has been firing in the winners in recent times.  Whilst talking about the popular trainer, I should remind readers what was said before the recent meeting at Cheltenham in that Fergal is very much the underrated handler at the track; before he posted two winners last month.  For the record, Fergal has twelve runners entered at Prestbury Park this weekend, five on Friday, four on Saturday and three on the final day of the fixture.  Back to this event, suggesting that BY THE BOARDWALK is the each way option if you want to shy away from odds of around 10/3 about the projected market leader.

Favourite factor: The four favourites to date have secured one gold medal and two of the silver variety.

 

4.00: Last year’s 4/9 favourite was beaten in the Placepot finale whereby you need to treat the race with plenty of respect, given that this is a juvenile event.  That said, Neil King’s Zamindar filly CUBSWIN won well at the first time of asking whereby the ex Roger Charlton inmate has to be included in the mix, especially with a claimer in the saddle who negates the penalty for the relevant success.  PHEONIX DAWN appears to be the obvious danger having run well over timber already. TAMAYEF is the other potential winner in the field according to the gospel of yours truly, having reached an official mark of 82 on the level, albeit six turf assignments have only brought about one silver medal to date.  Seemingly a better performer on an A/W surface, the other pair are preferred accordingly.

Favourite factor: The five favourites to date have secured three gold medals and two of the silver variety alongside Placepot positions.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Ludlow card on Thursday followed by seasonal stats and profits/losses accrued:

4 runners—Fergal O’Brien (0/2)

3—Matt Sheppard (1/4 +4)

3—Evan Williams (1/8 – loss of 2 points)

2—Kim Bailey (5/8 +17)

2—Tom George (0/3)

2—Nigel Hawke (0/1)

2—Nicky Henderson (0/4)

2—Emma Lavelle (0/2)

2—Kerry Lee (0/1)

2—Charlie Longsdon (2/6 +3)

2—Nigel Twiston-Davies (1/5 – loss of 1 point)

+ 30 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

56 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Taunton: This meeting was abandoned last year

Chelmsford: £21.30 - 6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced

Southwell: £1,035.30 - 6 favourites – No winners – 1 placed – 5 unplaced