Tag Archive for: Taunton racecourse

Racing Insights, Wednesday 24/04/24

/in /by

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 2.55 Perth
  • 4.17 Catterick
  • 5.15 Taunton
  • 5.20 Bellewstown
  • 5.25 Catterick
  • 5.50 Taunton

My personal preferred settings (you get to choose your own!) for the TS report...

...have yielded the following runners for me to consider...

Whilst the logical/preferred step for me is to marry up the daily feature with the the free race list, that would mean looking at Jersey Gem and the 5.15 Taunton, but 15-runner, Class 5, mares' handicaps aren't really my bag, but here are a few higher-rated races on that card, including a stayers' handicap from the list of free races aka the 5.50 Taunton, a 9-runner, Class 4, 5yo+ handicap chase over a right-handed 3m 2f 57yds on good ground...

None of these managed to win last time out, but Shortcross Storm was a runner-up whilst Bbold, Airtothethrone and Jessie Lightfoot all finished third. Conversely, Head and Heart, Unblinking, Flemen's Tipple and Kingsmill Gin were all pulled up on their most recent efforts, but Head and Heart and Kingsmill Gin did both won four races ago. Jessie Lightfoot and Shortcross Storm both won five races back, but the other five runners are winless in at least seven outings.

All four runners who were pulled up last time out (Head and Heart, Unblinking, Flemens Tipple and Kingsmill Gin) are up a class today with Head and Heart sporting first-time blinkers. Airtothethrone wears cheekpieces for the first time and Jessie Lightfoot makes a second yard debut for Henry Oliver after three runs for Ewan Williams.

All nine have had at least one run in the last two months and aside from Bbold's appearance at Wincanton on Sunday, they've all had at least 17 days rest. Only Unblinking and Flemen's Tipple have yet to score over a similar trip to this one and two of the field have won here at Taunton already; Airtothethrone landed a three-mile handicap chase here in early December 2022, whilst one of Kingsmill Gin's two career wins (from 24 attempts!) was over this course and distance, albeit 13 races ago back December 2021!

Instant Expert tells me that Shortcross Storm has lost 13 of 15 good ground chases and that he's 0 from 7 at Class 4, whilst Airtothethrone and Kingsmill Gin both have half a dozen defeats to their names at this grade...

Kingsmill Gin has also struggled to win over similar trips to this one, despite that distant course and distance success mentioned earlier. The above doesn't necessarily mean that Airtothethrone, Kingsmill Gin and Shortcross Storm can't win here, who knows they might have just been unlucky? The place stats might tell us a bit more...

That's a better looking graphic if nothing else, but I've still reservations over Kingsmill Gin (going) and Shortcross Storm (class), but the others all seem to be well suited to at least making the frame and if you can make the frame, you've a 1 in 3 chance of winning! At this point, I'd normally refer to the pace stats to help me narrow the field down, but good ground staying chases here at Taunton don't seem to have that much of a pace bias...

Mid-division runners have an inexplicably poor return, but when all other running styles ahead of or behind mid-division have done pretty well, I have to say that it looks like a coincidental anomaly rather than a trend.

And whilst we don't expect the pace of the race to be the deciding factor here, this is how we think they might lead out, if they run how they've raced in their last few contests...

Summary

When the place stats/data doesn't give you much help in a NH handicap, you need to go back to what you know (form and Instant Expert past data) and what you think/feel ie your gut opinion. For me, this leads me back to Airtothethrone (placed in his last two and now back down to his last winning mark) and Jessie Lightfoot (3343 in her last four starts, back with her old yard and reunited with the last jockey to win on her) as my two against the field.

I wrote this piece early (it's now 2.25pm!) on Tuesday, as I've a function to attend to later and as such, no odds were available. I did prefer Airtothethrone slightly more than Jessie Lightfoot, but the market will dictate how/if I place any bets here. A tissue made up of the average of the forecast prices from Oddschecker, Timeform and Racing Post looked like this...

Jessie Lightfoot 4/1
Airtothethrone 9/2
Kingsmill Gin 7.33/1
Bbold 15/2
Flemen's Tipple 8.33/1
Unblinking 10.17/1
Shortcross Storm 11.17/1
Grove Road 11.33/1
Head And Heart 11.33/1

...and if that is anywhere near accurate, then I'd also have an interest in both Shortcross Storm and Head And Heart as E/W possibles. The former receives weight all round and might well run himself into a place by nicking a decent early soft lead. The latter is a bit of an enigma, she hasn't completed any of her last three (RO, PU, PU), but finished 13531 in her previous five. She's now only 2lbs higher than her last win and if in the mood, could go well. If only we knew and if only it'd rain a little for her!

Racing Insights, Tuesday 26/03/24

/in /by

The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

Unfortunately, my fairly restrictive settings (you get to choose your own) have generated no qualifiers, but as ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover the following...

  • 4.20 Taunton
  • 5.45 Southwell
  • 7.30 Dundalk
  • 7.45 Southwell

...the best of which (on paper, at least) looks like being the 4.20 Taunton, a 6-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle on good to soft ground over what will be a shade beyond 2m1f after rail movements...

My initial thoughts were that this might be quite competitive despite the small field with only top-weights Wolf Prince and Manor Park looking like they might struggle, but let's take a closer look at the whole field...

WOLF PRINCE made the frame in three consecutive races in the summer of 2022, but has disappointed in two runs this season after taking nearly 18 months off. Now without a win in 14 races since mid-October 2021, it's hard to see him landing this one, although he has won at both 2m and 2m2f.

MANOR PARK drops a class here as he returns from eight months off the track, during which time he has moved yards. he did win two starts ago at this class/trip at Newton Abbot back in July 2023, but flopped next/last time out a fortnight later at Market Rasen and a watching brief is advised here, even if he is 4 from 12 at 2m1f.

CELTIC ART has won over 2m in the past and is 3 from 5 on good to soft ground, so won't want any more rain to fall here. He was a winner in both January & February last year and again in November, but with three indifferent runs in between. Since then, he has run poorly on a couple of occasions, but looked like coming back into a bit of form a 4-length third of none over this course and distance five weeks ago.

AMELIA'S DANCE is a bit of an enigma, she loves it here with three of her four career wins coming over course and distance, but she's only 4 from 34 overall and has no win since scoring over track and trip in December 2022. She has been beaten eleven times since then, but has been the runner-up in each of her last three outings and in five of her last six, so she wouldn't be winning out of turn. Sadly her run of near misses means she's still 10lbs higher than her last winning mark and she's up a class today.

TOONAGH WARRIOR is much less experienced (just 11 starts) than the four runners above (who have raced 30+ times each), but has gone well since starting hurdling last September, finishing 321264 in six starts. The 6th place can be excused, as he'd stepped from 1m7½f to 2m4f, but his other four defeats at 1m7½f-2m were by an average of less than five lengths and he's eased 2lbs here today, but he is up one class.

HARA KIRI comes here on a hat-trick but will have to contend with stepping up two classes. He has won his last couple by narrow margins and his last run was littered with errors and he'll probably not get away with them at this level. That said, going and trip are both fine for him and he has only failed to make the frame twice in nine starts. He's also up 3lbs here, so will definitely need to work a bit harder today.

And Instant Expert confirms that Amelia's Dance has found wins hard to come by...

...on good to soft (1 from 9) and at Class 3 (0 from 9), but that she loves it here (3/8 and 3/6 over C&D), whilst Manor Park has also struggled at the going, class, and course. The trip shouldn't be an issue for most of these, but despite a smattering of 'green', there's no absolute standout on the win stats. That said, the field only has a combined strike rate of 13.8% (24 from 174), so we shouldn't have expected much more. Hopefully, we'll glean a little bit extra from the place stats...

...where Celtic Art is probably the pick of the pack, but Amelia's Dance looks more of a contender with some solid numbers from a decent sample size of races. Manor Park still looks out of his depth here and if he runs like he normally does, then he's going to be playing catchup later in the race too...

...which might leave him adrift as there might well be plenty of early pace. Celtic Art likes to get on with things, as does Wolf Prince, whilst Amelia's Dance was only headed deep into the final furlong last time out and it's those runners on the front end who tend to fare best in these contests...

Summary

Having looked at the race again, it's every bit as competitive as I thought it might be and you could easily make a case for four of them and the 5pm market seems to reflect this...

I'm not seeing a great deal of value in that price about Hara Kiri if truth be told, as he'll need considerable improvement if he's to complete the hat-trick. I don't think I'll even place a bet in this one (which is perfectly fine/acceptable, of course), but the one I probably would have gone with would be Celtic Art. He's no standout here, but ticks a few boxes.

Amelia's Dance will give her usual gutsy Taunton showing, but she's out of form and too high in the weights, so Toonagh Warrior might be the 'surprise package' here. Could be worth watching with a cup of tea, though, even if I've no cash down.

Racing Insights, Monday 11/03/24

/in /by

Our new week starts here with a reminder that the pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's so important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday. This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for this Monday are...

  • 2.10 Taunton
  • 2.30 Plumpton
  • 3.40 Taunton
  • 8.30 Wolverhampton

Of those four raced, the highest-rated also has the widest pace spread, so let's have a look at the 3.40 Taunton, a 7-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase over a right-handed 3m5f (after a 132 yd rail movement) on soft ground...

No LTO winners in the field, but both Enrilo and Broken Halo were runners-up ans the latter is the only runner in the field with a win in his last seven outings, having won six and seven races ago. Bottom-weight Jacamar is the only one to have completed all of his last seven starts, with Enrilo being the least successful at finishing, failing to do so four times from seven.

The top two in the weights, De Rasher Counter and Enrilo are both dropping down a class here and Laskalin wears cheekpieces for the first time. All seven have been seen in the last 25 to 58 days, so fitness shouldn't be an issue (although stamina might) and the field are 0 from 3 at this track, whilst Cyclops' 2017 Boxing Day win in the Lincolnshire National over 3m3.6f at Market Rasen is the closest any of the field have come to winning over today's trip.

Instant Expert looks like this today...

...with the experienced Cyclop having a reasonable return on the going/class. but has struggled to win more often over 3mf to 3m6f, as have the others who've tried to! Cyclop is our only previous soft ground winners, but Broken Halo and Jacamar are both more reliable at Class 3 from a win perspective. The overall poor recent form of the field is highlighted by none of the field being higher than their last winning mark, especially Jacamar and De Rasher Counter who are now rated some 13 and 14 pounds lower than their last wins. The place stats from those races above give us a little bit more to work with, thankfully...

...where again Cyclop's record looks decent, but most of that is historical rather than recent form.

Today's feature is pace and if we consult our pace analyser, we are advised that in 5 to 9-runner, 3m to 3m6f chases on good to soft/soft ground here at Taunton that runners willing to set the pace have the best records from both a win and place perspective

...and because we track/log how all horses race here in the UK, we can make a reasoned assumption as to how they might run here. We allocate a leader 4pts, a prominent runner gets 3pts, it's 2 pts for mid-division runners and 1pt for a hold-up horse and this is how the field have approached their last few outings...

...suggesting that First Lord de Cuet & Enrilo will be the pace options, whilst Broken Halo will need to pass all six rivals later on if he wants to win.

Summary

Despite the conditions and the distance of the race, it's said that pace should win the race here and the two pace options are First Lord de Cuet and Enrilo. The former has yet to win any of 11 starts over fences, but has been a runner-up six times and as his weight drops, he might be ready to win. The latter ran really well to finish second of twelve over 3m7½f in the Edinburgh National recently, even if he was beaten by some 21 lengths. He's down in both trip and class here and could go well again, even if Harry Cobden has chosen to ride stable-mate Broken Halo. That said, 5lb claimer Angus Cheleda has ridden him in three of his last four starts.

Cobden is aboard Broken Halo, who won both the Royal Artillery & Grand Military last year and was runner-up in this year's Grand Military (last time out), so he's clearly no mug but is unproven beyond 3m½f and hasn't a great record on soft ground, so I'm not sold on him completely. De Rasher Counter looks like being third rank from a pace perspective, but carrying top weight after a run of thirteen defeats stretching back to November 2019 leaves me cold. Laskalin is interesting even if the data I've shown above gives him little chance, but he has made the frame in 3 of 9 at this level and has first-time cheekpieces. He's interesting because he's trained by Venetia Williams and when you think of soft-ground staying chasers, she's one of the first trainers you think of.

So, Laskalin probably isn't a winner here, but he'll certainly relish the conditions. We've discussed Cyclop quite a bit above during the Instant Expert analysis, so it's fair to say that he should get these conditions, but might well have to come from way off the pace. Whether he can do that here is debatable, but if not too far detached might well get close to or even make the frame. Last, but not least, we have Jacamar, who might not be too far ahead of Laskalin early doors and doesn't really like soft ground. he did actually win as recently as 1st Feb '23, but has lost ten straight since then, including a pretty heavy defeat last time out.

Late-evening (9.15pm) odds look like this...

...from which I think I prefer First Lord de Cuet and Enrilo to battle it out up top. Of the three priced at what I'd deem E/W money, Cyclop would be the one that I'd be more interested in. 18/1 in a seven-horse race where the bookies are paying three places looks quite generous and you might make a small profit there.

Racing Insights, Monday 08/01/24

/in /by

Our new week starts here with a reminder that the pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's so important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday. This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for this Monday are...

  • 1.40 Ayr
  • 2.25 Taunton
  • 3.30 Taunton

If I'm honest, I'm not really taken by either of them, so let's switch our attention to the day's highest-rated race which appears on the same card, the 3.00 Taunton, a 12-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a right-handed 2m3f on soft ground...

FORM : No LTO winners here but Killaloan, Vicki Vale and Just Loose Change had top-3 finishes. Zoffee and Bread & Butter are winless in nine and thirty-one respectively, although Zoffee's run of defeats are all on the flat/AW and his career hurdles form reads 221P, but he hasn't tackled a hurdle since being pulled up at the last in 2020's Fred Winter! The other horse without a recent win is Ask Brewster who has finished fourth in both starts under Rules, but did win his sole PTP contest over 2m5f at Maisemore Park last March.

CLASS : Galahad Quest, Mr Freedom, Vicki Vale, and Zoffee all drop down a level here, whilst El Rio, Bread And Butter & Ask Brewster all step up a class.

DAYS SINCE LAST RUN : Most have raced in the last eight weeks, but Zoffee has been off for twelve weeks whilst Galahad Quest and Getalead both return from lengthy breaks of 296 and 311 days respectively and this pair might well need the run.

ANYTHING NEW : This will be handicap debut day for El Rio and Ask Brewster, as Getalead and Zoffee make their first appearances for their new handlers.

COURSE/DISTANCE : Five of these (Killaloan, Mr Freedom, Zoffee, Inca de Lafayette and Ask Bewster) have yet to win over a similar trip to this one, but Killaloan & Inca de Lafayette have at least won on this track before, scoring over 2m1f twice and once respectively. Vicki Vale has won here over 2m½f, whilst Just Loose Change is our sole course and distance winner, having won here four starts ago, back in April and was a runner up over track & trip last time out.

Much of the above is replicated in INSTANT EXPERT...

...which shows just three soft ground winners, although Galahad Quest has also won a soft-ground chase. Getalead has tried and failed to win more often than the others on soft ground and has the second most Class 3 runs after Bashful Boy and the pair ore just 2 from 20 at this level. Killaloan is 2 from 2 over 2m1f here and went pretty well on soft ground at Wincanton last time out. Mr Freedom is relatively unexposed at going/class/track, but certainly gets the trip, winning three of his six efforts. He has also made the frame in two of his three defeats over this distance, as shown below...

None of these are ticking all the boxes just yet, but at this stage I'm only ruling Galahad Quest, Getalead, Bashful Boy, Inca de Lafayette and Ask Brewster out based on the length of layoff and/or their place stats above.

Monday's free feature is access to the PACE tab for all races and if we click the tab for this race, we see the following data...

...where 4 = led, 3 = raced prominently, 2= ran in mid-division and 1 = was held up. We can sort the columns by clicking on them and if I just click the end column (Ave) it gives us an average pace score for that horse's recent runs ie...

...suggesting that the likes of El Rio, Just Loose Change, Vicki Vale and Getalead are the likely front-runners/prominent horses with the likes of Bashful Boy, Killaloan, Mr Freedom and Bread & Butter closer to the back of the pack.

So, why are you telling us this, Chris?

Well, we have a fantastic tool called the Pace Analyser and by setting your required parameters, you can see what running style has or hasn't been successful over a certain type of race and for this particular race, we see...

...that those keen to get on with it fare much better than those racing in mid-division or further back. Leaders/prominent runners have won 66.66% of the above races and have taken 50% of the places from just 37% of the runners, therefore winning 1.8 times more and placing 1.35 times more than par.

Summary

The two horses I like the most are in the middle of the weights/card, Vicki Vale & Zoffee and both have made the frame in two of three soft ground efforts. The latter hasn't tackled a hurdle for ages and is therefore lacking in value at 7/2 or 4/1. Had he had a run over hurdles recently, I'd have been all over him. I might well miss the boat here by not backing him.

Vicki Vale is in good nick, ran well last time out and has won here at Taunton in the past and can be backed at 5/1. I suspect he'll be one of the major players here today, but I think I prefer Just Loose Change for this one. He ticks the box for pace, has a win and a runner-up finish from two course and distance runs and when runner-up here last time out, was seven lengths ahead of Individualiste in third and the latter then won here by sixteen lengths over course and distance a fortnight later!

I see the generally available 6/1 about Just Loose Change as a fair price. Elsewhere, if I wanted a bit of value as an E/W option, I'd be inclined to look at the 14/1 offered about El Rio by Paddy Power, especially as you can get four places on this race. El Rio is better than his last run and if he goes anything like he did two starts ago, when winning by eleven lengths at this going/trip, he could easily make the frame.

Racing Insights, Monday 20/03/23

/in /by

The pace tab on our racecards helps to make a reasoned assumption based upon a field's most recent runs as to how their next race might unfold. This information is vastly under-used by UK bettors, but we feel it's that important that we make this info totally free for all races every Sunday & Monday.

This, of course, includes our daily free races, which for Monday are...

  • 2.10 Taunton
  • 3.25 Navan
  • 3.45 Taunton

The latter of the two UK races appeal most to me both generally and from a pace perspective and whilst it's a small field, the race looks pretty competitive in the 3.45 Taunton, a 6-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a right handed 2m½f on good to soft ground...

Jpr One has two wins and a runner-up finish from five so far with wins over 2m1f at Exeter and over 2m3½f. Well beaten in his last two efforts, both at Graded level, he now drops two classes for a second crack at a handicap a full year and five days after he was last seen. Will probably need the run.

Mr Grey Sky won both bumper starts (Dec '18) and won back to back short distance hurdles in Jan/Feb '22, but hasn't tackled a hurdle for a year and has ran just once fences since then, finishing last of six at Hereford just before Christmas.

Zambezi Fix won LTO just over three weeks ago, when first home by a neck at Chepstow over today's trip, after been a heavy ground runner-up on his previous run in January. Up 4lbs here, but still expected to be in the mix.

Libberty Hunter had two wins and a place from four bumpers and his hurdles form reads 231 (all at Chepstow). He was only beaten by a length in a 15-runner contest on hurdles debut over today's trip in early November, but a step up to 2m3½f somewhat caught him short a month later, but another one month break and a drop back to today's trip saw him get off the mark over hurdles with a 1.25 length success. Up one class for his handicap debut here.

In The Air won over this trip on hurdles debut just over a year ago, but hasn't really shone since, finishing 6th of 9 at Aintree (over 100 lengths down) in a Grade 1, then falling at Fontwell prior to a 12 length defeat (6th of 9) at Ascot four months ago. No run since then and although down in class, might toil here.

Mamoom Star made the frame in his first two bumpers including a Listed race at Cheltenham at the start of 2022. He was then well beaten in two more bumpers before winning on hurdling debut last November here at Taunton (Class 4, 2m1f). Subsequently just 6th of 10 (45 lengths) at Kempton on Boxing Day, he then dropped two classes t0 run third of eight at Sandown a month ago. Now back up in class for his handicap debut.

All of which translates to a bit of a mixed bag form-wise...

Zambezi Fix looks unsuited by the trip, but has made the frame in four of his twelve defeats and with so little to go on from a win perspective, I think place form might help us more...

...where Zambeai Fix now looks more of a consistent, experienced performer, but it's Libberty Hunter catching the eye despite this being a class and course debut.

Feature of the day is pace and below you can see the pace scores from each runner's last four outings alongside a composite of their average score...

...suggesting Mr Grey Sky is likely to set the tempo of the contest, whilst Jpr One, In The Air and Zambezi Fix are all likely to be waited with. I've looked at past similar races and they haven't been kind to back markers...

Summary

You've probably guessed that I haven't spend long on this race and that's because you shouldn't be poring over small field low quality contests. Quickly ascertain if there's a bet for you and then move on is the Geegeez way!

I think there could be a bet here on Libberty Hunter. Up in class for a handicap debut, but in good form, scored well on IE place form and has the right kind of pace profile here. He's 11/4 with Bet365 (Sunday 7pm) and that's a bit longer than I expected, which is good.

As for a runner-up/placer/forecast horse, I did like Zambezi Fix initially, but a poor record at the trip and him being held-up have put me off so Mamoon Star might be the one at 13/2. He'll have to overcome a step up in class, but is running well and gets the trip readily.

Race Histories 8 – 6 Rifles B Company Novices’ Hurdle

/in , /by

Didn't know we had to build the jumps.....

Earlier forays into race histories have looked at some of the well known and long established races in the calendar. Today, we turn our attention to a brand new race, as we head to Taunton, where the Territorial Army is moving into new …territory. The first race at Taunton today is the 6 Rifles B Company Novices’ Hurdle. It was to have been run earlier in the season, but rain led to the cancellation of the meeting, and not even the combined power of Army equipment and track ground staff could save the day then. Read more