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Double Dutch, 13th January 2016

Double Dutch, 13th January 2016

Another good day for us yesterday, albeit at the lower end of the odds ranges, as we came away with two winners, a runner-up and a non-runner after playing the very first and very last races of the day.

More Spice beat Secret Millionaire by half a lengtrh with their rivals well beaten in the opening 5f sprint to set us off with a 2/1 winner and the bonus of a 4/1 exacta, before a wait approaching three hours before Ludlow's closing bumper.

These bumpers aren't the usual type of race I go for, but on a day of poor quality racing it was our best option, yet after my preferred option Mac Gregory was withdrawn, I feared the worst. Not only did we lose one of our two chances of success, Alf n Dor's odds were reduced by 35% via the Rule 4.

We needn't have worried, though, as despite showing lots of signs of greenness and wandering around considerably over the final quarter mile, he fairly romped home by 21 lengths and after a flood of money for the eventual third placed horse, Handpicked, our SP of 15/8 was better than ther R4 price.

This left us with a double at 7.63/1 and a single at 2/1, a 4/1 exacta and for those doing the forecast doubles, a nice 12.92/1 payout. Hat-trick landed, can we get 4?

Tuesday's results were as follows:

Your first 30 days for just £1

More Spice : WON at 6/4 (adv 2/1)
Secret Millionaire : 2nd at 7/4 (adv 3/1)
The Exacta paid £5.00 here
----------------------------------------------------
Alf n Dor : WON at 15/8 (adv 11/4 = 9/5 after R4)
Mac Gregory : non-runner (adv 7/4)

Results to date:
781 winning selections from 2789 = 27.96%
243 winning bets in 722 days = 33.56%

Stakes: 1443.00pts
Returns: 1531.73pts
P/L : +88.73pts (+6.15% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

1.10 Taunton :

Petite Power (11/4 BOG) is likely to be popular today after catching the eye is an energy sapping hurdles debut at Leicester five weeks ago. He finished as a 1.25 length runner-up that day, despite coming off the back of a six month absence. He'll strip fitter for having had the run, will benefit from having tried hurdles for the first time and the way he ran last time suggested the 2m 4.5f wasn;t long enough for him, so today's 3m could very well be more suitable.

Should Petite Power not get the trip though, that's not a fear for A Plein Temps, who represents the in-form duo of Harry Fry and Noel Fehily. This horse stays 3m2f and was a runner-up at Exeter over 2m7f in treacherous conditions last time out. Although beaten by 9 lengths that day, he wasn't really ridden out once headed and still had the rest of the field well strung out behind him.

Harry Fry's hurdlers have a 34% strike rate (15/44) over the last couple of months (8/25 ridden by Fehily) and the yard also fare well with those runners who are their only runners of the day and with those stats in mind, a bet on A Plein Temps at 11/4 BOG might be a good decision.

*

2.55 Chelmsford :

This looks very much like a match between a pair both trading around the 2/1 BOG mark this morning, both trained by the in-form Stuart Williams who also has a decent record here at Chelmsford.

Pactolus has won three of his last six starts (2 of last three) and is 2 from 4 on this track, 2 from 3 at 9.5/10 furlongs, 4 from 9 oing left handed and has won one of two efforts over course and distance, that C&D win was two starts ago off a mark of 75 and he's well weighted today with his jockey taking 5lbs off a mark of 78.

My slight preference is for top weight Oakley Girl, who comes here seeking a hat-trick after wins at Lingfield and Wolverhampton either side of December. Raised 6lbs for a comfortable 6 lengths win last time out, she drops down in class to run here defending a 3 from 3 record on the A/W (2/2 at this trip).

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows...

Petite Power / Oakley Girl @ 10.25/1 (11/4 & 2/1 : generally)
Petite Power / Pactolus @ 10.25/1 (11/4 & 2/1 : Betfair SB)
A Plein Temps / Oakley Girl @ 10.25/1 (11/4 & 2/1 : Betfred, Betway & Totesport)
A Plein Temps / Pactolus @ 10.25/1 (11/4 & 2/1 : Betfair SB)

Stat of the Day, 13th January 2016

Stat of the Day, 13th January 2016

Tuesday's Result :

2.00 Ludlow : Celtic Intrigue @ 7/2 BOG 4th at 9/2 (Tracked leader, led before 15th, headed 4 out, weakened before 2 ou)

Wednesday's runner goes in the...

2.40 Taunton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Top Wood @ 3/1 BOG

Why?

Firstly David Pipe's male handicappers are 23 from 125 (18.4% SR) for 39.7pts profit (+31.8% ROI) here at Taunton over the last eight years, which is clearly a positive.

Secondly and more generally, over the last five years, his male runners carrying 10-13 to 11-09 over trips of 2m4f to 3m2f are 159/776 (20.5%SR) for 191.2pts (+24.6% ROI), of which handicap races have yielded 101 winners from 568 (17.8% SR) for for 170pts (+29.9% ROI) profit.

Of the 568 handicappers, chasers are 50 from 234 (21.4% SR) for 754.8pts (+32.4% ROI), broken down as follows...

  • Class 2 to 5 : 46/175 (26.3% SR) for 99.1pts (+56.7% ROI)
  • Those rated (OR) below 140 are 47/174 (27% SR) for 108.4pts (+62.3% ROI)
  • On heavy ground : 7/25 (28% SR) for 8.4pts (+33.2% ROI)
  • Here at Taunton : 3/5 (60% SR) for 8.3pts (+166% ROI)

And my recommended bet, based on my data and prices available at 7.35pm is...

A 1pt win bet on Top Wood and that's at 3/1 BOG with either Betfair, Boylesports, Hills, Seanie Mac and/or SkyBet, whilst Betfred / Totesport offer the same odds, but are non-BOG until morning. To see your preferred bookie's prices, you can always...

...click here for the betting on the 2.40 Taunton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Double Dutch, 26th November 2015

Double Dutch, 26th November 2015

A poor day for us on Wednesday, one of those rare no winner days as the best we could muster was a 3rd place coupled with a runner up after defeats of 2.5 lengths for Dubawi Light and 2.25 lengths for Hamelin meant we weren't even close to landing a 17/1 double.

We don't hit the doubles as often as I'd like, but a day without even one winner is quite rare and we'll need to do better today!

Wednesday's results were as follows:

Dubawi Light : 3rd at 2/1 (adv 2/1)
Fern Owl : 4th at 9/2 (adv 9/2)
----------------------------------------------------
Hamelin : 2nd at 5/1 (adv 4/1)
Spanish Squeeze : 7th at 13/8 (adv 9/4)

Results to date:
739 winning selections from 2639 = 28.00%
233 winning bets in 684 days = 34.06%

Your first 30 days for just £1

Stakes: 1367.00pts
Returns: 1463.42pts
P/L : +96.42pts (+7.05% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Here are Thursday's selected races...

2.30 Southwell :

Dougie Costello is 4/14 (28.6% SR) for 42.2pts (+301.2% ROI) on Jo Hughes' A/W runners this yeat and they team up here with Powered, who is probably better than his UK form of 587 would suggest. He has also ran in France, performing well enough in defeat in better races than this and with an OR of 72, he does seem to have plenty in hand. If running to his mark, this race is there for the taking at 5/2 BOG.

Ginger Joe is also of interest here, as he drops down in class from a 4 lengths defeat at Chelmsford last time out. That was a Class 5 Nursery, as opposed to this Class 5 seller and he went well enough at Chelmsford, despite the 6f trip being too short for him. He's back at 7f here and inder Sean Levey who rides this track well, he's sure to be involved at 11/4 BOG.

*

3.25 Taunton :

This does look like going to one of the three art the top of the market and whilst Ballyegan is proven at track and trip from past exploits, I fear that off a mark of 88, too much is asked of him here, as his last win at this trip was off 75.

So we'll start with Double Chocolate, who was a winner six weeks ago in a Class 5 chase over 3 miles at Uttoxeter, despite coming off a break of 495 days. This 12 yr old veteran then stepped up in class to get beaten into second place by a potentially very well handicapped runner, but the rest of the field were spred out behind them. Back down in class, off the same mark, should go close at 9/4 BOG.

Dawnieriver, on the other hand, is only 5 yrs old and unexposed over fences after just three efforts. She was a runner-up two starts ago when beaten by less than two lengths and then really should have won last time out but unseated her rider at the last when in the lead at Towcester three weeks ago. Provided there are no repercussions from that incident, she has every chance at 5/2 BOG.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows, based on prices available at 8.35am

Powered/ Double Chocolate @ 10.38/1 (5/2 & 9/4 : Bet365)
Powered / Dawnieriver @ 11.25/1 (5/2 & 5/2 : Bet365)
Ginger Joe / Double Chocolate @ 11.19/1 (11/4 & 9/4 : Bet365)
Ginger Joe / Dawnieriver @ 12.13/1 (11/4 & 5/2 : Bet365)

Stat of the Day, 26th November 2015

Stat of the Day, 26th November 2015

Wednesday's Result :

7.15 Kempton : Lancelot du Lac @ 3/1 BOG 1ST of 11 at 11/8 (Out quickly, made all, comfortable win by 1.25 lengths)

Thursday's selection runs in the...

1.45 Taunton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Fountains Blossom @ 4/1 BOG

Why?

Because she's trained by Anthony Honeyball and her name flagged up on several microsystems when I was going through my data. Most of you are probably aware that the Honeyball yard is now sponsored by Geegeez, but that has no bearing on the selection.

I've five reasons to go with Anthony and this 6 yr old mare today, all based around data from January 2010 to today...

  1. The no-brainer : Anthony Honeyball is profitable to follow blindly in NH handicap races with each of the past 6 years showing a profit adding to up 71 winners from 310 (22.9% SR) for level stakes profits of 166pts at an ROI of 53.5%. And in Class 4/5 handicap hurdles, the team are 40/126 (31.75% SR) for 150pts (+119.1% ROI)
  2. This will be Fountains Blossom's handicap debut and the yard are 13/40 (32.5% SR) for 105pts (+262.5% ROI) with debutants.
  3. Those handicap debutants stepping up in trip by 3.5 furlongs or more (5.5f today) are 8 from 24 ( 33.33% SR) for 89pts (+370.7% ROI) profit
  4. Those making a handicap debut in a hurdles contest are 13/36 (36.1% SR) for 109pts (+302.8% ROI)
  5. And those making a handicap debut over fences some 11 to 75 days (48 here) after their last outing are 8 from 19 (42.1% SR) for 78.5pts (+413% ROI) with those priced at 25/1 or bigger LTO (she was 100/1 LTO) winning 5 of 8 (62.5% SR) for 67.9pts at an ROI of a mere 849.1%

And all that is without referring to jockey David Noonan's excellent recent form and his good record for the Honeyball yard!

And my recommended bet, based on prices available at 7.20pm?

A 1pt win bet on Fountains Blossom at 4/1 BOG with Bet365, who are the standout price here with 7/2 BOG generally available, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering...

...click here for the betting on the 1.45 Taunton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Double Dutch, 12th November 2015

Double Dutch, 12th November 2015

Two races totalling almost five miles in distance and we missed a double by two lengths! That was the margin of Ball Hopper's defeat at Exeter less than two hourse after What A Dream (3/1) had led Mumgo's Debut (4/1) home to secure the first half of the dounle and a forecast that paid over 13/1!

Unfortunately, Ball Hopper paid the price for a mid-race flat spot and when he got a second wind, he was simply unable to reel in the winner.

Wednesday's results were as follows:

What A Dream : WON at 3/1 (adv 9/4)
Mumgos Debut : 2nd at 4/1 (adv 13/8)
The forecast paid £14.29 here.
----------------------------------------------------
Ball Hopper : 2nd at 3/1 (adv 5/2)
Buckhorn Tom : 6th at 9/4 (adv 10/3)

Results to date:
724 winning selections from 2594 = 27.91%
228 winning bets in 672 days = 33.93%

Stakes: 1343.00pts
Returns: 1440.27pts
P/L : +97.27pts (+7.24% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Your first 30 days for just £1

These are Thurssday's selected races...

1.10 Taunton :

I think a pair of LTO winners hold the key here and I'm hoping they're the first two home today.

Oscar Jane is quickly turned out under a penalty for making all, easing down and still winning by six lengths at Towcester last Thursday to end a sequence of races where she's threatened to win, but hadn't quite got there over shorter trips.

She'd been a little unlucky in getting outpaced late on over 2m on two occasions and she also fell at the last when clear three starts ago. She relished the step up to 2m5f last time out and the way she coasted home suggests she'll get three miles too and you can back Oscar Jane at 11/4 BOG.

Minella Bliss, on the other hand, is unpenalised for his win over this trip at Ludlow ten days ago, as that was an apprentice jockeys' race, where today's rider was claiming 5lbs. Charlie Hammond gets to use his full 7lb claim today, so the horse is effectively 2lbs better off, despite coming here off the back of a win!

He's a gritty stayer and three miles is probably his optimum trip nowadays, ground conditions look ideal and although he's not always the most reliable for stringing two good results together, Minella Bliss is a very handy Plan B at 9/2BOG.

*

2.10 Taunton :

Not the easiest to call, but I'm hoping that the favourite Ballyknock Lad might just need the run on his chasing debut despite his yard being in excellent form, so I'm going to overlook him for two others who also have very good claims here.

The obvious starting point has to be Love The Leader, a winner of three consecutive hurdle races in the space of nine days last month, before going on to score on his chasing debut at Sedgefield a fortnight ago, taking his record to four wins in 12 days since adopting cheekpieces! This 2-weeks layoff will have seemed an eternity for him and should come here refreshed and ready to go over a trip that should be far more suitable than last time out.

That chase debut was over 2m3.5f  on soft ground and a step up to 2m7f on quicker ground would (on paper, at least!) seem to be better for him, he gets on well with today's jockey and despite a hike in weight for his latest win, still seems reasonably treated based on his hurdling record and as such, Love The Leader makes plenty of appeal at a good price of 5/1 BOG.

He's A Bully runs off a similar mark (just 1lb lower) and also comes here off the back of a win, where he seemed to suggest his official mark was far too low, as he fairly bolted up to win by nine lengths without really being pushed at Wincanton four weeks ago. I'm not convinced a further 7lbs on his back would have stopped him that day, as he really could have won by 20 or more lengths had he wanted to and a repeat of that effort would be very interesting.

Trainer Philip Hobbs has a good record at this track, the horse gets the trip readily enough and it might just be that He's A Bully's greater chasing experience tips the balance his way and if you think that'll be the case, you can get 4/1 BOG about it being so.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Oscar Jane / He's A Bully @ 17.75/1 (11/4 & 4/1 : BetVictor)
Oscar Jane / Love The Leader @ 21.5/1 (11/4 & 5/1 : BetVictor & Paddy Power)
Minella Bliss / He's A Bully @ 26.50/1 (9/2 & 4/1 : generally)
Minella Bliss / Love The Leader @ 32/1 (9/2 & 5/1 : BetVictor, Betfred & Totesport)

Double Dutch, 9th April 2015

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 9th April 2015

Lears Rock was withdrawn around 9.30 on Wednesday morning, throwing a potential spanner ion the works and reducing the price of Rain Wind and Fire down to 6/4 from our advised 15/8 BOG. I did say that he's still be worth a bet at that price, especially with the defection of his main rival and so it proved, although he made very hard work of it, just getting home by a neck, with the third placed a similar distance further back.

This was great news for us, as Simple Verse had earlier led Marmion home by three parts of a length for a DD 1-2 and a modest 4.2/1 exacta, as our pair finished a good 14 lengths clear of the pack. All of which left us with a 0.5pt double at 5.56/1 and a 0.5pt single at 6/4 for an overall profit on the day of 3.53pts (we don't count the forecasts etc).

Without the Rule 4 deduction, the profit would have been 3.27pts, so the non-runner actually did us a favour. Gold Members who did the DD/SotD double were rewarded with a 45/1 treble and if you'd like to take a 14-day trial of Gold for just £5.00, click this link!

Wednesday's results were as follows:

Simple Verse: WON at 5/4 (adv 13/8)
Marmion: 2nd at 7/4 (adv 13/8)
------------------------------------------
Rain Wind and Fire: WON at 11/10 (adv 6/4 after 20p R4)
Lears Rock: non-runner (adv 7/2)

Results to date:
540 winning selections from 1888 = 28.60%
168 winning bets in 489 days = 34.36%

Your first 30 days for just £1

Stakes: 977.50pts
Returns: 1084.86pts

P/L : +107.36pts (+10.98% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Wednesday's racing looks pretty awful to be frank, but there'll be 30 winners out there today. We only want/need two of them! So, let's try...

4.25 Southwell:

It's a brave man that takes on a fancied Charlie Appleby runner at the moment with his string winning 28 of 54 (51.9% SR) races over the last five weeks, netting followers 19.92pts profit (+71.1% ROI) at Betfair SP and probably a good deal more at early BOG prices! This, of course, makes Rosenbaum the likeliest winner of this contest. He'd ran perfectly well at 9 and 10 furlongs, but always seemed to need/want more and when trying this 1m4f trip for the first time three weeks ago, it brought about further improvement.

He won a touch easier than the 1.25 lengths official margin would suggest and the form has been partially franked by the runner-up Galileano finishing second again since, but beaten by another of Charlie's runners! I think this is Rosenbaum's race to lose and if he takes to the new surface, looks a good bet even at 11/8 BOG.

If, however, he's not comfortable on this track, then I'd expect Sirens Cove to be the main beneficiary at 11/4 BOG. She was consistent if not spectacular over trips of 6 and 7 furlongs and she also needed to step up in trip to land a first win, which she achieved at Chelmsford a fortnight ago, when tackling 12 furlongs for the first time.

In all fairness, even that seemed a little short for her and she only just got home, beating Charlie Appleby's Leoncavello by just half a length. Leoncavello then went on to beat the above mentioned Galileano to tie all the collateral form up together. The extra 2 furlongs should help Sirens Cove today and she could make this very interesting.

*

4.50 Taunton:

Vesperal Dream is 1133111 in his last seven outings and 1131 over hurdles. He's hasn't finished improving yet and looks well set to extend that great run of form with another win at 11/8 BOG here. Conditions look ideal for him too, as he has a win and a runner-up finish from two runs on this track, he's 21331 in his last 5 runs on good ground, the trip is ideal fore him, he's 3/5 on right handed tracks and 4/6 in small fields. A clear run should mean another win.

Pure Style looks to be the biggest danger at 7/2 BOG and comes here hopefully refreshed after a break and with a record of three wins and a runner-up finish from just six runs over the last year or so. He's a former course and distance winner who has no problems carrying weight (3/3 at 11-9 and above). He also performs best in these small fields and we could end up with a bit of a tactical battle on our hands.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Rosenbaum / Vesperal Dream @ 4.64/1 (11/8 & 11/8 : Betvictor)
Rosenbaum / Pure Style @ 9.29/1 (11/8 & 10/3 : Betvictor)
Sirens Cove / Vesperal Dream @ 7.91/1 (11/4 & 11/8 : BetVictor & Paddy Power)
Sirens Cove / Pure Style @ 15.25/1 (11/4 & 10/3 : Betvictor)

Double Dutch, 16th March 2015

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 16th March 2015

A 2nd, a 3rd, a 4th and a non-runner was the outcome from Saturday and whilst that's pretty consistent selecting getting a run for our money, it's still a case of close, but no cigar!

It meant a loss of 2pts on the day, but didn't detract form the good week we'd had. 8 winners from 23 selections led to 3 winning days from 6 and a 19.69pts (+164.1% ROI) profit from our 12pts staked. We'll take that as often as we can!

Saturday's results were as follows:

Engrossing : 3rd at 9/4 (adv 3/1)
Roseerrow : non-runner (adv 7/2)
------------------------------------------
Port Melon : 2nd at 11/8 (adv 9/4)
Sugar Baron : u/p at 2/1 (adv 7/4)

Results to date:
516 winning selections from 1806 = 28.57%
162 winning bets in 468 days = 34.69%

Stakes: 935.50pts
Returns: 1051.59pts

Your first 30 days for just £1

P/L : +116.09pts (+12.65% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

New week, clean sheet, winners required!

2.35 Southwell:

My eyes light up a little bit when I see a Henry Oliver runner in a handicap, as they have invariably been finely tuned for their races. Over the last three months, the yard has been in really good form, consistently averaging over 30% strike rate and in Take The Crown (5/2 BOG), they've a really interesting and consistent (1332 in last four outings) runner.

He was only beaten by a neck last time out having been overhauled late on when done for finishing speed over 2 miles to be beaten by a neck. It is, however, anticipated that the step up in trip allied to better ground will be more to his liking and (with no disrespect to previous jockeys intended) the booking of Paddy Brennan to ride Take The Crown is a positive move for me, especially with his 21/81 record here over the last four years.

He won't have it all his own way and the 2/1 BOG favourite Money For Nothing is the one most likely to cause him some grief. He has also been in good nick of late, finishing as runner-up in each of his last three starts over fences, all over 2 miles, all by fairly small margins of defeat and all featuring late jumping errors when struggling to keep up with the late pace injection.

The step up in 2m4f should also benefit him, as he won't have to kick on as hard, as he has been forced to previously and in Messrs King and Hutchinson he represent a team with a very good record here at Southwell. The handicapper tends not to do Money For Nothing many favours due to his decent perfomances in defeat, but his mark is at least unaltered today, enabling him to remain as competitive as ever.

*

2.50 Taunton:

Not only is the Pipe/Scudamore combination a successful one, the yard is in good form, they have a good recent record here at Taunton and do well with their debutants. All of which points to a good opening run over hurdles for Perspicace, who has joined the Pipe team after showing some promise on the level, finishing as runner-up in four of five races at 1m2f to 1m4f.

Those runs suggests he'll not get outpaced here today and as a Pipe horse, you just know he'll have been well schooled and the fact that he's by Sir Percy would also suggest that taking a hurdle shouldn't be beyond Perspicace and this looks like a very winnable/weak race for him to start in and the odds of 11/4 BOG, whilst not massive might prove generous after the fact!

The one he'll have to beat, Maverik, has a similar background, but with far more experience. He competed in 26 races on the flat/AW and won three races off a mark of 85 (twice) and 87, suggesting he'll be no mug between the hurdles. He's already had experience of getting himself over them too, with a fifth placed finish on debut at Ludlow eighteen days ago.

He looked a little green that day, if truth be told, but coming from the Williams yard, he'll have been worked on and it's not unrealistic to expect improvement for having had the experience and if Perspicace isn't our winner here, then it's likely to be Maverik at 2/1 BOG.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Money For Nothing / Maverik @ 8/1 (2/1 & 2/1 : generally)
Money For Nothing / Perspicace @ 11.19/1 (9/4 & 11/4 : BetBright)
Take The Crown / Maverik @ 9.50/1 (5/2 & 2/1 : generally)
Take The Crown / Perspicace @ 12.13/1 (5/2 & 11/4 : generally)

SotD : Monday 16/03/15

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 16th March 2015

It was, sadly, a case of right stats, wrong horse at Newcastle on Saturday, as Team Reveley brought home two winners from their four hurdlers, but ours wasn't one of them!

Waltz Darling was held up for a late challenge and started to make headway from 2 out, but was rather one-paced in his efforts and was soon beaten into 5th place at our advised 3/1 to round off a truly miserable week for us here at SotD.

Monday marks the start of a new week and with a clean sheet, I want to get the week off to a flyer by finding the winner of the...

3.20 Taunton:

Despite Monday usually being a slow day stats-wise!

The horse I'm backing today is the 9/4 BOG Ballyegan whose form has been superb since returning to action in November after a break of 31 weeks from racing. I don't know what went on during his absence, but he has seemed a different animal since his return with finishes of 1122231 with a 3 from 3 record in chase contests.

He was a course and distance winner here a week ago, taking his track record to 3 wins from 8 here at Taunton (1121 in his last four visits), a figure which is just one of a number of stats to support his nomination today. He has won three times on good to soft ground and he is 1/1 over today's trip (acquired in last week's C&D victory). he has finished 3rd and 1st in 2 starts under today's jockey and his 3/8 record here at Taunton is actually 3/6 when only considering chases, having won his last three.

Since 2010 former course and distances winners returning to Taunton on the back of a win (anywhere) are 18/54 (33.33% SR) for 7.2pts (+13.3% ROI) profit from blind backing and although it's a fairly small sample size, I think it would be foolish to ignore the results.

With today's contest in mind, the 18/54 stat can be further analysed as follows...

Chasers are 8/16 (50% SR) for 8.72pts (+54.5% ROI)
Horses priced 5/1 or shorter are 18/38 (47.4% SR) for 23.2pts (+61% ROI)
Those who won over C&D LTO are 15/45 (33.3% SR) for 9.7pts (+21.6% ROI)
Those whose last run was no more than 15 days ago are 11/24 (45.8% SR)

Once again, small sample sizes, but surely too successful to be purely coincidental. And just for information purposes, chasers priced at 5/1 or shorter who won over course and distance last time out no more than 15 days earlier won 5 of 6 (83.3% SR) races for level stakes profits of 7.65pts at an ROI of 127.4%, the latest of which was today's selection, Ballyegan himself back in November!

No mega profits on offer today, but I do expect to collect from a 1pt win bet on Ballyegan at 9/4 BOG, a price you can take from either BetVictor or Paddy Power. For more details...

...click here for the latest betting on the 3.20 Taunton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

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Stat of the Day, 16th March 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 16th March 2015

It was, sadly, a case of right stats, wrong horse at Newcastle on Saturday, as Team Reveley brought home two winners from their four hurdlers, but ours wasn't one of them!

Waltz Darling was held up for a late challenge and started to make headway from 2 out, but was rather one-paced in his efforts and was soon beaten into 5th place at our advised 3/1 to round off a truly miserable week for us here at SotD.

Monday marks the start of a new week and with a clean sheet, I want to get the week off to a flyer by finding the winner of the...

3.20 Taunton:

Your first 30 days for just £1

Despite Monday usually being a slow day stats-wise!

The horse I'm backing today is the 9/4 BOG Ballyegan whose form has been superb since returning to action in November after a break of 31 weeks from racing. I don't know what went on during his absence, but he has seemed a different animal since his return with finishes of 1122231 with a 3 from 3 record in chase contests.

He was a course and distance winner here a week ago, taking his track record to 3 wins from 8 here at Taunton (1121 in his last four visits), a figure which is just one of a number of stats to support his nomination today. He has won three times on good to soft ground and he is 1/1 over today's trip (acquired in last week's C&D victory). he has finished 3rd and 1st in 2 starts under today's jockey and his 3/8 record here at Taunton is actually 3/6 when only considering chases, having won his last three.

Since 2010 former course and distances winners returning to Taunton on the back of a win (anywhere) are 18/54 (33.33% SR) for 7.2pts (+13.3% ROI) profit from blind backing and although it's a fairly small sample size, I think it would be foolish to ignore the results.

With today's contest in mind, the 18/54 stat can be further analysed as follows...

Chasers are 8/16 (50% SR) for 8.72pts (+54.5% ROI)
Horses priced 5/1 or shorter are 18/38 (47.4% SR) for 23.2pts (+61% ROI)
Those who won over C&D LTO are 15/45 (33.3% SR) for 9.7pts (+21.6% ROI)
Those whose last run was no more than 15 days ago are 11/24 (45.8% SR)

Once again, small sample sizes, but surely too successful to be purely coincidental. And just for information purposes, chasers priced at 5/1 or shorter who won over course and distance last time out no more than 15 days earlier won 5 of 6 (83.3% SR) races for level stakes profits of 7.65pts at an ROI of 127.4%, the latest of which was today's selection, Ballyegan himself back in November!

No mega profits on offer today, but I do expect to collect from a 1pt win bet on Ballyegan at 9/4 BOG, a price you can take from either BetVictor or Paddy Power. For more details...

...click here for the latest betting on the 3.20 Taunton

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SotD : Monday 09/03/15

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 9th March 2015

Ballyheigue Bay's two length defeat in third place at 9/2 (adv 5/1) was possibly the highlight of a disappointing week for SotD.

I though he ran really well to overcome a series of jumping errors that might have cost him the race, but he plugged on gamely in a pulsating finish. Unfortunately there wasn't enough left in the tank after three miles and the final half furlong saw him slip out of contention.

Last week wasn't a good week by any stretch of the imagination, and I'm seeking a return to winning ways via an unlikely looking source on Monday in the...

4.50 Taunton:

Where a 5lb claimer jockey will ride a horse that has lost its last 11 runs and comes from an unheralded training yard. I'm probably not selling it to you just yet, but let me briefly explain why I think Green du Ciel is worth a punt at 11/2 BOG here.

1. He's trained by Brian Barr.

"Who?" might be the question on some lips and you'd be forgiven for asking. He's not the most famous trainer out there, nor does he have the biggest string of horses at his disposal, but what he does have, he does pretty well with.

Over the last three years his record in NH handicaps with runners priced below 12/1 is 7 winners from 28 (25% SR) for 15.2pts (+54.2% ROI) level stakes profits, whilst those sent off shorter than 7/1 are 6/17 (35.3% SR) for 11.6pts (+68.1% ROI), suggesting that Brian is worth following in the usual SotD range of prices.

2. He has lost his last 10 outings, since winning off a mark of 105.

He now runs off a mark of just 85 and the long losing run isn't necessarily a negative point, as since the start of 2011, Class 3 to 5 handicap chasers with 10 or more consecutive defeats behind then that now run at a lower mark than their last win have then returned to winning ways on 269 of 2226 (12.1% SR) occasions, clocking up 522.9pts (+23.5% ROI) profits in the process.

That is, of course, a lot of bets, so let's refine it...

...those priced 5/2 to 7/1 are 135/659 (20.5% SR) for 59.2pts (+9% ROI), of which those running off a mark 18 to 22lbs lower than that last win are 21/60 (35% SR) for 65.3pts (+108.9% ROI)

3. His jockey will be Harry Bannister.

And Harry is no ordinary 5lb claimer. I know from comments/emails that some of you don't like to back claimers, but Harry has an excellent record that's difficult to overlook. Since the start of 2013, he has ridden 27 winners from 156 starts, a decent 17.3% strike rate that has generated level stakes profits of 41.4pts at an ROI of 26.7%.

Those percentages would be acceptable to most jockeys, professionals and claimers alike, but they are improved further when isolating his performance in handicap company where he is 26/112 (23.2% SR) for 80.6pts (+72.6% ROI) and when his mount has been priced at odds of 9/4 to 8/1, he has 13 winners from 53 (24.5% SR) and profits of 19.5pts (+36.8% ROI).

He claims 5lbs today and when he has used a 5lb claim in the past, he is 10/41 (24.4% SR) for 26.5pts (+64.6% ROI) in handicap company with all 10 winners coming from the 24 runners priced at odds of 6/4 to 10/1. This subsequent 41.7% strike rate has yielded 43.5pts profit to date at an ROI of 181.2%

But, lets face reality for a moment. I'm more than happy with the stats supporting my selection of Green du Ciel, but he's not the strongest selection I've ever made. NH racing is pretty mediocre in the final few days before Cheltenham and I'd much rather have found a bet on the A/W, but there are no meetings today!

Green du Ciel does, however, offer us the potential for some value at the the prices available and some of you might consider a safety-first E/W approach, but for me, its a 1pt win bet on Green du Ciel at 11/2 BOG with Bet365. If you prefer to use SkyBet, they're offering the same deal and for the rest of the market...

...click here for the latest betting on the 4.50 Taunton

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Stat of the Day, 9th March 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 9th March 2015

Ballyheigue Bay's two length defeat in third place at 9/2 (adv 5/1) was possibly the highlight of a disappointing week for SotD.

I though he ran really well to overcome a series of jumping errors that might have cost him the race, but he plugged on gamely in a pulsating finish. Unfortunately there wasn't enough left in the tank after three miles and the final half furlong saw him slip out of contention.

Last week wasn't a good week by any stretch of the imagination, and I'm seeking a return to winning ways via an unlikely looking source on Monday in the...

4.50 Taunton:

Where a 5lb claimer jockey will ride a horse that has lost its last 11 runs and comes from an unheralded training yard. I'm probably not selling it to you just yet, but let me briefly explain why I think Green du Ciel is worth a punt at 11/2 BOG here.

1. He's trained by Brian Barr.

Your first 30 days for just £1

"Who?" might be the question on some lips and you'd be forgiven for asking. He's not the most famous trainer out there, nor does he have the biggest string of horses at his disposal, but what he does have, he does pretty well with.

Over the last three years his record in NH handicaps with runners priced below 12/1 is 7 winners from 28 (25% SR) for 15.2pts (+54.2% ROI) level stakes profits, whilst those sent off shorter than 7/1 are 6/17 (35.3% SR) for 11.6pts (+68.1% ROI), suggesting that Brian is worth following in the usual SotD range of prices.

2. He has lost his last 10 outings, since winning off a mark of 105.

He now runs off a mark of just 85 and the long losing run isn't necessarily a negative point, as since the start of 2011, Class 3 to 5 handicap chasers with 10 or more consecutive defeats behind then that now run at a lower mark than their last win have then returned to winning ways on 269 of 2226 (12.1% SR) occasions, clocking up 522.9pts (+23.5% ROI) profits in the process.

That is, of course, a lot of bets, so let's refine it...

...those priced 5/2 to 7/1 are 135/659 (20.5% SR) for 59.2pts (+9% ROI), of which those running off a mark 18 to 22lbs lower than that last win are 21/60 (35% SR) for 65.3pts (+108.9% ROI)

3. His jockey will be Harry Bannister.

And Harry is no ordinary 5lb claimer. I know from comments/emails that some of you don't like to back claimers, but Harry has an excellent record that's difficult to overlook. Since the start of 2013, he has ridden 27 winners from 156 starts, a decent 17.3% strike rate that has generated level stakes profits of 41.4pts at an ROI of 26.7%.

Those percentages would be acceptable to most jockeys, professionals and claimers alike, but they are improved further when isolating his performance in handicap company where he is 26/112 (23.2% SR) for 80.6pts (+72.6% ROI) and when his mount has been priced at odds of 9/4 to 8/1, he has 13 winners from 53 (24.5% SR) and profits of 19.5pts (+36.8% ROI).

He claims 5lbs today and when he has used a 5lb claim in the past, he is 10/41 (24.4% SR) for 26.5pts (+64.6% ROI) in handicap company with all 10 winners coming from the 24 runners priced at odds of 6/4 to 10/1. This subsequent 41.7% strike rate has yielded 43.5pts profit to date at an ROI of 181.2%

But, lets face reality for a moment. I'm more than happy with the stats supporting my selection of Green du Ciel, but he's not the strongest selection I've ever made. NH racing is pretty mediocre in the final few days before Cheltenham and I'd much rather have found a bet on the A/W, but there are no meetings today!

Green du Ciel does, however, offer us the potential for some value at the the prices available and some of you might consider a safety-first E/W approach, but for me, its a 1pt win bet on Green du Ciel at 11/2 BOG with Bet365. If you prefer to use SkyBet, they're offering the same deal and for the rest of the market...

...click here for the latest betting on the 4.50 Taunton

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Double Dutch, 17th February 2015

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 17th February 2015

Monday was a great start to the week, especially after my complaining about the poor fayre on offer! In our opener, I didn't think there'd be much between our runners and so it proved, as Three Faces West led Gone Forever home by 2.25 lengths.

Other than the O'Neill/McCoy combo a further 2.25L back in third, the rest of the field were well beaten and the race gave us the added bonus of a useful, if not life-changing, 9/2 exacta.

That also gave us a 15/8 BOG winner going towards race 2, where once again I thought we had the winner and that there wouldn't be much to choose between our runners and so it proved once again.

After a tussle in the final furlong, Walk Like A Giant beat Pearl Ransom by a length, which was great news for us, as the winner was longer priced than the runner and helped the exacta rise to a £9.10 return to a £1 stake.

The upshot of it all was/is: 2 races, 4 runners, 2 winners, 2 runners-up and a double at 9.78/1. I know the braver of you also play the exactas and Monday's paid £5.50 and £9.10 respectively to £1 stakes, whilst the very brave/foolhardy will have collected an Exacta double at 49/1: I certainly wasn't on it!

Monday's results were as follows:

Three Faces West : WON at 15/8 (adv 13/8)
Gone Forever : 2nd at 7/4 (adv 15/8)
The exacta paid out at 9/2
------------------------------------------
Walk Like A Giant : WON at 11/4 (adv 11/4)
Pearl Ransom : 2nd at 7/4 (adv 9/4)
The exacta paid out at 8.1/1

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Results to date:
491 winning selections from 1718 = 28.58%
153 winning bets in 445 days = 34.38%

Stakes: 889.50pts
Returns: 988.63pts

P/L : +99.13pts (+11.14% ROI)

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We're back on the cusp of the so-far elusive 100pt barrier and I hope to break it today, via the...

3.45 Taunton:

The Pipe/Scudamore partnership continues to churn out winners and in Dell'Arca, they'll expect to be picking up another pot today. He has spent his entire career racing at a higher level than this, running with great credit, but not winning often enough. A quick look at this form line might deter people, but you have to consider the quality of horses he has raced against.

He dropped down to this grade at Cheltenham last time out and was only beaten by an in-form Lightentertainment by half a length on the run-in. The latter was completing his 5th win in 6 runs that day, but at 2/1 BOG here, Dell'Arca looks the one to beat at 2/1 BOG if repeating that effort or showing some of his Class 1 form.

As my second pick, I'm going to go with Fox Norton, who looks quite long at 15/2 BOG with a couple of firms. He was one of the better novice hurdlers around last season, having started with a narrow (neck) defeat on debut at Market Rasen in a Class 2 hurdle before going to Doncaster to win a grade 2 event.

It's less than 10 months since he finished third in a Grade 1 at Punchestown off today's mark of 140 and he was only 1.5 lengths behind the runner-up, Plinth, that day and the latter has gone on to win four times since. A similar run today could put Fox Norton right in the mix.

*

4.35 Wolverhampton:

This looks an awful race, if truth be told, but the one piece of decent recent form belongs to Ocean Legend who won a Class 5 handicap at Kempton last time out. It has to be said that his best form comes at that track, but dropping down to this grade, he has to be the one to beat. Looking back at his past races, I was surprised to see that he has been first home in 4 of his last 7 races and that he has made the frame 10 times in his last 14 outings.

He might well be getting on a bit at 10 yrs old and he will have to show more of an aptitude for the surface than he did on his only previous run on the tapeta, but at 5/2 BOG, Ocean Legend is the one to take from this.

You can them make cases for and against the rest of the field as possible backup selections, but I've narrowed it down to Hamoody and Bond Fastrac (probably tempting fate by naming both!), as they both have some ability and both look reasonably treated at the weights, but the fact that Bond Fastrac is 0/13 on the A/W, whilst Hamoody is 6/25 away from the turf and his jockey takes what could be a very valuable 7lbs off, makes Hamoody my tentative secondary pick at 13/2 BOG with Skybet.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Dell'Arca / Ocean Legend @ 9.50/1 (2/1 & 5/2 : Stan James)
Dell'Arca / Hamoody @ 19.63/1 (7/4 & 13/2 : Skybet)
Fox Norton / Ocean Legend @ 28.75/1 (15/2 & 5/2 : BetVictor & Hills)
Fox Norton / Hamoody @ 58.50/1 (15/2 & 6/1 : Hills)

The Geegeez Geegee Taunton Snaps

The Geegeez Geegee ran, and won, at Taunton on Thursday. Below are some extremely moderate pictures that don't do justice to the occasion...

In the parade ring before the race...

2015-02-05 16.39.20 2015-02-05 16.39.18

Jockey Ryan Mahon mounting. As it turned out, this was almost his most anxious moment of the day..!

2015-02-05 16.43.26

 
2015-02-05 16.43.28

The post-race debrief between Ryan Mahon and Anthony Honeyball. They're both really pleased, though you wouldn't necessarily know that from this picture!

 

2015-02-05 17.00.51

 

 

Sally, our amazing head lass, helps TGG cool his limbs down in the winners' enclosure. Good lass, with a good lad!

2015-02-05 17.00.55

 

Smiles all round. TGG barely knows he's had a race. And he trotted out sound as a pound the following morning. Happy day 🙂

2015-02-05 17.00.57

Stat of the Day, 5th February 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 5th February 2015

My cold run continued on Wednesday as the 11/4 advised Squats drifted out to 7/2 before being beaten by 2.5 lengths to finish 6th of the 8 runners, but he deserved better.

As he began to make his challenge a furlong out, he was badly hampered and them sandwiched before running on again to try to close down the leaders and had he not encountered problems, it could have been a different story.

But the search now goes on to break this run and my quest now takes me to the...

3.45 Taunton:

Where Venetia Williams' Abundantly is best priced at 9/2 BOG with Coral for this Class 3 handicap hurdle over 2m 1f on soft ground.

Venetia's record here at Taunton is good at 28/128 (21.9% SR) for 37.5pts (+29.3% ROI) profit, from which we see that she is 17/72 (23.6% SR) in handicaps here for 28.4pts (+39.4% ROI) and she's 20/85 (23.5% SR) for 51.4pts (+60.4% ROI) with her Taunton hurdlers.

Venetia is 11/41 (26.8% SR) with handicap hurdlers here at Taunton for 35.1pts (+85.6% ROI) profit.

It's widely known that the Williams yard has a good record on soft ground, so I won't bore you with the details, aside from telling you that of the 11.41 record, the figures on soft ground are 5/10 for 28pts profit.

Abundantly comes here off the back of a comfortable win over course and distance 19 days ago and Venetia's handicap hurdlers who won last time out have gone on to win again on 21 of 48 (43.75% SR) for 11.8pts (+24.6% ROI) when priced at 5/1 or shorter in the past six years.

Meanwhile, runners in Taunton handicaps over the last three years who have CD next to to their name and who won lat time out are 12/28 (42.9% SR) for 14.3pts (+51.2% ROI) profit.

Abundantly ran and won over today's course and distance almost three weeks ago and although this race is tougher, the following should be noted...

...she won by 13 lengths last time out
...it was her first run for a year and only her second for the yard
...it was her first run here at Taunton
...it was on heavy ground

She's sure to come on for having had the run and with conditions looking better today, she looks dangerous down near the foot of the weights off a fairly lenient-looking opening mark of 110.

So, the call for Thursday is a 1pt win bet on Abundantly at 9/2 BOG with Coral. Alternatively, you can always...

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Double Dutch, 27th January 2015

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 27th January 2015

Al's Memory failed to over haul a shock 12/1 winner at Wolverhampton on Monday, going down by three parts of a length, despite staying on strongly towards the finish.

This, unfortunately, meant we were denied a great start to the week, courtesy of a 19.63/1 double, originally made possible by Ebony Empresses return to form with a win at Ludlow, as we thought she might.

Monday's results were as follows:

Ebony Empress : won at 11/4 (adv 3/1)
Annaluna : fell at 7/2 (adv 9/2)
------------------------------------------
Al's Memory : 2nd at 3/1 (adv 9/2)
Mop's Angel : 5th at 5/1 (adv 3/1)

Results to date:
470 winning selections from 1648 = 28.52%
146 winning bets in 427 days = 34.19%

Your first 30 days for just £1

Stakes: 853.50pts
Returns: 935.61pts

P/L : +82.11pts (+9.62% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

And if you thought Monday's racing was poor, you're probably not going to be impressed with the quality of Tuesday's meeting, but as always, our show goes on! These are my chosen races today...

1.30 Taunton:

On a racecard bereft of much solid form or performances, Aroseforoscar stands out like a sore thumb after her win at Exeter last week, when she fairly strolled home by 14 lengths. The fact of the matter is likely to be that the Exeter race turns out to be a poor one but I don't think it's any worse (if at all!) than this one today. Yes, of course, she's up 7lbs for the win, but truth be told, she could have won by as far as she wanted to that day.

If the same Aroseforoscar turns up today in the same form, then I don't see anything but another win for her, but we're only looking at 2/1 BOG here, rather than the splendid 15/2 last time around. Mind you a 2/1 winner would be a good start to a double!

And with fairly serious doubts about most of her rivals, I'm going to go with the 8/1 BOG Unefille de Guye, who was in a decent run of form earlier in the winter, even if she did disappoint last time out, when well beaten at Exeter. There is the suggestion that the race was one step too far for her, being her fifth effort in six weeks, but prior to that failure she had finished 231 in her previous three runs.

The "3" came when she was five lengths ahead of Aroseforoscar and she meets the favourite again some 6lbs better off with all jockey claims considered. This swing in the weights and a near 6-week rest make Unefille de Guye an attractive backup at a decent price. She could very well be worth a small E/W single too.

*

4.10 Southwell:

Eium Mac is 3122 in the four races he has contested since a switch to the fibresand here at Southwell and for a horse narrowly beaten when caught late on in his last two outings, both over a mile, the drop back to 7f should be the catalyst for a return to the winners' enclosure. he's also the only previous course winner on show here and holds the best recent form, making him the best option here at 2/1 BOG.

The rival I'm most interested in is Risk n Reward, a 5/2 BOG chance on his debut for David O'Meara, He was third and then second in his final two runs of last summer and having switched yards since, could go one better today. Jockey Danny Tudhope has a near 20% strike rate here over the last three years and trainer David O'Meara is renowned for getting a bit more improvement from his imports from other yards.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Aroseforoscar / Eium Mac @ 8/1 (2/1 & 2/1 : Bet365 & SkyBet)
Aroseforoscar / Risk n Reward @ 9.50/1 (2/1 & 5/2 : Bet365 & Hills)
Unefille de Guye / Eium Mac @ 26/1 (8/1 & 2/1 : Skybet & Paddy Power)
Unefille de Guye / Risk n Reward @ 28.75/1 (15/2 & 5/2 : Bet365)