TAUNTON - DECEMBER 30
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £222.20 (7 favourites - 2 winners 1 placed – 4 unplaced)
Friday's Placepot permutation at Taunton:
Leg 1 (1.00): 9 (Baron Du Plessis), 1 (Beau Du Brizais) & 8 (Reilly’s Minor)
Leg 2 (1.30): 2 (Song Of The Night), 6 (Peal Of Bells) & 3 (York Night)
Leg 3 (2.00): 3 (Forecast), 6 (Clo Sacre) & 2 (Phobiaphiliac)
Leg 4 (2.30): 7 (Precious Ground), 6 (Followmybuttons) & 5 (Behind The Wire)
Leg 5 (3.00): 5 (Theatre Territory) & 1 (Dusky Legend)
Leg 6 (3.30): 2 (Minellacelebration) & 8 (Moss On The Mill)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.00: Ian Williams is enjoying one of his best years under both codes and there is every chance that stable representative BARON DU PLESSIS can reward each way investors at the very least in this grade/company. Course and distance winner BEAU DU BRIZAIS appears to be the main threat or at least he is now, with Philip Hobbs hiring the services of a three pound claimer in the saddle to offset the 12-4 burden. That said, the projected good/good to firm ground invariably helps horses towards the top of the handicap, providing they can handle such conditions. REILLY’S MINOR completes my trio again the remaining 13 contenders.
Favourite factor: The two favourites to date have snared gold and silver medals alongside Placepot positions.
Record of the course winner in the opening event:
1/2—Beau Du Brizais (good)
1.30: Five-year-olds have won three of the four renewals to date and the chances of SONG OF THE NIGHT and PEAL OF BELLS are respected, two of three horses representing the vintage this time around. The pair is listed in order of preference with Charlie Longsdon’s mare hoping to go one better following two silver medals accrued of late. If the vintage is to be denied on this occasion, the only course (and distance) winner in the field YOUR NEXT could prove to be the spoiler in the pack.
Favourite factor: Both favourites had finished out with the washing before last year's 11/4 market leader prevailed.
Record of the course winner in the second race:
1/3—Your Next (good)
2.00: Four-year-olds have secured 10 of the 18 available toteplacepot positions, whilst vintage representatives have claimed four renewals at 12/1-7/1-6/4-4/7 for good measure. The pick of this year's six representatives (four-year-olds are 11/8 to extend the good run before form is evaluated) will hopefully prove to be FORECAST and CLO SACRE. Five-year-olds have won the other two contests, whereby the danger is regarded as PHOBIAPHILIAC this time around.
Favourite factor: Three of the six favourites have scored to date at odds of 4/7-6/4-11/10, whilst two of the other three market leaders finished out of the frame.
2.30: Nine of the twelve available toteplacepot positions have been claimed by horses carrying a maximum burden of 11-2. Five potential 'qualifiers' emerge in this ‘dead eight’ event, the pick of which will hopefully prove to be PRECIOUS GROUND, FOLLOWMYBUTTONS and BEHIND THE WIRE.
Favourite factor: The first two favourites had secured gold and silver medals (alongside toteplacepot positions) before the 2014 market leader finished out of the frame. One of the two 7/2 joint favourites last season gained a Placepot position by winning the race.
3.00: Willie Mullins and Paul Nicholls bailed favourite backers out of the mire recently (see relevant stats below) and it might take the likes of Nicky Henderson (THEATRE TERRITORY) and Alan King (DUSKY LEGEND) to put punters ahead of the layers via the five contests once the day is done. That said, regular readers will know that Paul Nicholls generally rules the roost at this venue, whereby the chance of COILLTE LASS is also respected.
Favourite factor: Two warm (4/6 and even money) favourites have been beaten in the race to date, securing just one toteplacepot position between them. That was the quote two years ago before recent 4/7 & 10/11 market leaders drew the majority of punters level going into Friday’s contest.
3.30: I started last year’s analysis with these words: Kings Apollo could represent the value in the race, especially as the Tom Symonds raider is the only course winner in the line-up, notwithstanding the fact that Ben Poste's mount is a soft ground scorer. Kings Apollo duly obliged at 6/1 and with MINELLACELEBRATION being this year’s only course winner in the field, Katy Price’s six-year-old is the first name on the team sheet. MOSS ON THE MILL represents the Tom George/Adrian Heskin bandwagon which rolls relentlessly on in 2016.
Favourite factor: All three market leaders had finished out with the washing via two contests before the 2014 even money favourite landed the spoils. The race (unfortunately) reverted to type last year when the 2/1 market leader was one of four horses that failed to complete the course.
Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Taunton card on Friday – followed by their five year ratio at the track + profits/losses accrued:
4 runners Nigel Hawke (1/31 – loss of 24 points)
4—David Pipe (21/155 – loss of 60 points)
3—Johnny Farrelly (7/46 – Profit of 7 points)
3—Alan King (3/43 – loss of 21 points)
3—Paul Nicholls (47/152 – Profit of 5 points)
3—Richard Phillips (0/8)
2—Kim Bailey (1/16 – loss of 14 points)
2—Kevin Bishop (5/43 – loss of 9 points)
2—David Dennis (3/28 – loss of 15 points)
2—Jimmy Frost (1/42 – loss of 31)
2—Tom George (1/21 – loss of 17 points)
2—Mark Gillard (2/76 – loss of 64 points)
2—Grace Harris (0/7)
2—Nicky Henderson (8/28 - loss of 11 points)
2—Martin Hill (0/24)
2—Philip Hobbs (20/114 – loss of 43 points)
2—Martin Keighley (2/25 – loss of 12 points)
2—Seamus Mullins (0/32)
2—Pat Murphy (No runners)
2—Katy Price (1/3 – Profit of 1 point)
2—Evan Williams (15/83 – Profit of 29 points)
2—Ian Williams (1/9 – loss of 5 points)
+ 28 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
80 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Haydock: 174.30 – 7 favourites – No winners – 3 placed – 4 unplaced
Newcastle – This is a new A/W meeting