Posts

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday December 20

KEMPTON – DECEMBER 20

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2015: £1,002.50 (6 favourites – No winners – 1 placed – 5 unplaced)

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Tuesday: 

Leg 1 (2.10): 10 (Fastnet Blast), 4 (Zabeel Star) & 1 (Solveig’s Song)

Leg 2 (2.40): 6 (Miracle Cure), 8 (Flying Bear) & 2 (Seve)

Leg 3 (3.10): 2 (Dancing Breeze) & 8 (Piaffe)

Leg 4 (3.40): 6 (Night Poetry) & 8 (Precious Ramonswe)

Leg 5 (4.10): 5 (Emenem), 1 (African Beat) & 8 (Pobbles)

Leg 6 (4.40): 5 (Debonaire David) & 9 (Chough)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.10: Three and four-year-olds have (equally) shared the last four contests between them, with three-year-old FASTNET BLAST expected to figure prominently, possibly alongside four-year-old raiders ZABEEL STAR and dual course and distance winner SOLVEIG’S SONG.  If the vintage trend is to go base over apex on this occasion, the potential joker in the pack might prove to be Red Cossack.

Favourite factor: Four of the five favourites (the last four) have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include two successful (9/4 & 7/2) market leaders.  All five winners have scored at a top price of 8/1.

Record of the course winners in the opening event:

2/7—Solveig’s Song

1/12—Red Cossack

1/4—Dream Ruler

1/3—Solveig’s Song

Your first 30 days for just £1

1/33—Shifting Star

1/15--Estibdaad

2.40: All six winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-5, with just two runners eliminated accordingly, as a jockey claim intervenes as far as the declaration of SEVE is concerned.  Tom Dascombe’s four-year-old enters the equation accordingly, joined by MIRACLE GARDEN (2/2 at this venue) and Jeremy Gask’s consistent five-year-old FLYING BEAR.  The overnight reserve nomination is NORMAL EQUILIBRIAM.

Favourite factor: We still await the first successful favourite following six renewals, the gold medallists ranging between 5/1 and 25/1, the average price to date (via percentages) equating to 8/1.

Record of the course winners in the second contest on the card:

1/5—Sandfrankskipsgo

2/12—Steelriver

2/2—Miracle Garden

3.10: Connections of the newcomers come to the gig not having to fear any of the eight experienced runners in the field, the debutantes listed in order of preference as DANCING BREEZE, PIAFFE and MAYFLAIR.  The pick of the other horses could prove to be SNOW SQUAW, though a break of four months from the track is a tad worrying.

Favourite factor: All three favourites have finished well down the field to date, winners having been returned at 16/1, 6/1 & 7/2.

3.40: Charlie Applebly has pulled a potential plum out of the pie in this second heat of this event, with NIGHT POETRY being Charlie’s first runner this month.  November stats of 3/6 support Charlie’s case and the Sea The Stars filly is fancied to go very close at the first time of asking, especially as Martin Lane’s mount is the thick end of three years of age now in real terms, not just because the annual calendar is soon to be turned over.  PRECIOUS RAMOTSWE and possibly AWAAYIL are other newcomers to consider.

Favourite factor: This is the second division of the previous race on the card.

4.10: Simon Dow has accrued 63 points of level stake profits via a 6/13 ratio of late, with course winner EMENEM representing the yard this time around.  Simon has saddled winners at this meeting in the past and his Sir Percy raider is the first name on the team sheet in the penultimate leg of our favourite wager.  POBBLES could scrape into frame at a decent price for Roger Charlton who also has his horses running well, with AFRICAN BEAT completing my trio against the remaining 11 contenders.

Favourite factor: The one favourite to have run (the other was withdrawn before a new market could be formed) finished out of the frame.

Record of the course winners in the fourth race:

1/3—Emenem

4.40: Richard Hughes has saddled two of his last 16 runners to winning effect at the time of writing, the only two horses which were returned as favourites.  I had not appreciably noticed the recent ‘trend’ before now in all honesty, though support in the ring would add confidence to the selection from the yard in the Placepot finale, namely DEBONAIRE DAVID.   The main danger from my viewpoint is CHOUGH who represents Hughie Morrison who has saddled three of his last five runners to winning effect.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 2/1 favourite finished nearer last than first behind horses that filled the frame at 9/2, 8/1 & 20/1.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Kempton card on Tuesday – followed by their five year ratio at the track + profits/losses accrued:

4 runners—Marco Botti (49/386 – loss of 144 points)

3—John Butler (9/92 – loss of 54 points)

3—John Gosden (73/340 – loss of 27 points)

3—Richard Hannon (434/360 – loss of 113 points)

3—Richard Hughes (6/65 – loss of 33 points)

3—Mark Johnston (42/368 – loss of 147 points)

3—Michael Madgwick (7/145 – loss of 85 points)

2—David Barron (0/18)

2—Barry Brennan (0/14)

2—John Bridger (12/314 – loss of 162 points)

2—Tony Carroll (53/601 – loss of 214 points)

2—Tom Dascombe (14/119 – loss of 40 points)

2—Harry Dunlop (18/151 – Profit of 52 points)

2—Robert Eddery (6/70 – loss of 47 points)

2—Jeremy Gask (21/226 – loss of 67 points)

2—Jonathan Portman (3/116 – loss of 87 points)

2—Ed Walker (14/129 – loss of 41 points)

+ 52 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

94 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Taunton: £222.20 – 7 runners – 2 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced

Southwell: 989.00 – 6 favourites – 1 winner & 5 unplaced

Placepot Pointers – Thursday December 8

TAUNTON - DECEMBER 8

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2015: £1,364.70 (7 favourites - 2 winners - 3 placed - 2 unplaced)

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Thursday: 

Leg 1 (12.30): 2 (That’s Gonna Sting), 4 (Port Navas) & 1 (Bilidn)

Leg 2 (1.05): 1 (Bistouri D’Honore) & 5 (Laugharne)

Leg 3 (1.35): 1 (Cottesloe), 6 (Billy My Boy) & 3 (Sadma)

Leg 4 (2.10): 2 (Tea Time Fred), 1 (Bells Of Ailsworth) & 3 (Hannibal The Great)

Leg 5 (2.40): 5 (Newsworthy) & 2 (Clic Work)

Leg 6 (3.15: 2 (Notarfbad), 1 (Tinker Time) & 3 (Astra De La Cour)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.30: All 16 horses to have secured toteplacepot positions thus far (including the winners at 16/1-8/1-7/1-9/2**-6/4*) have carried a minimum burden of 11-2, whereby the top weight BILIDN (this year’s only qualifier) is not easily passed over, despite a less than obvious chance via the form book.  More obvious winners include THAT’S GONNA STING and PORT NAVAS.  Chris Down’s course and distance winner CULM COUSELLOR is another for the overnight short list.
Favourite factor:  Two of the five renewals have been secured by market leaders.  Four of the six favourites to date have claimed toteplacepot positions.

Record of the course winners in the opening event:

1/3—Culm Counsellor (good)

Your first 30 days for just £1

1/10—Withy Mills (heavy)

1.00: Paul Nicholls has secured four gold medals and two of the silver variety via six contests to date.  Paul saddles BISTOURI D’HONORE this time around.  Paul’s Exeter winner looks to have been given an ideal opportunity to follow up successfully, whilst the official figures suggest that LAUGHARNE will complete the forecast option.

Favourite factor: Four of the six favourites (two beaten at odds on at 8/15 & 5/6) have secured toteplacepot positions thus far (two winners at 8/15 & 2/5).

1.35: Not too many days pass without Neil Mulholland posting a winner or two and that ‘trend’ can be extended here by COTTESLOE who arguably has SADMA and BILLY MY BOY to beat.  That latter named Chris Down raider is set to be ridden by Tom Scudamore who is riding with plenty of confidence these days.  The older Tom gets, the more the ‘Scudamore stamp’ is in evidence, following in the illustrious footsteps if his father and grandfather.  What caps it all, is that he seems like a ready decent chap too when interviewed.

Favourite factor: Two of the four favourites have secured toteplacepot position by finishing second in their respective events.

2.10: The first of two three runner races which will ensure a half decent dividend because of the ‘win only’ ruling for Placepot wagers.  Before odds are taken into account, we basically have an £9.00 four leg Placepot bet to consider if like yours truly, punters run scared of such events and put all three entries into their Placepot mix.  My marginal order of preference is TEA TIME FRED, BELLS OF AILSWORTH and HANNIBAL THE GREAT, but not enough to be swayed away from my 3x3 Placepot permutation in the two relevant events.
Favourite factor: Both of last year’s inaugural 3/1 joint favourites failed to complete the course.

2.40: Six-year-olds have won four of the five renewals thus far, including the 3/1 gold medallist two years ago who was highlighted in this column as the only vintage representative.  The same scenario was in place the previous year when the 11/4 winner was the only vintage representative, whilst the 2012 renewal produced four 'qualifiers', two of which filled the forecast positions at 14/1 & 6/1, producing an Exacta forecast of 140/1.  Just one trainer is live to the figures on this occasion (wake up at the back there) with Neil Mulholland having declared NEWSWORTHY.  A useful five pound claimer aboard CLIC WORK negates most of the rise incurred for a half decent success here at Taunton a fortnight ago.
Favourite factor: Four of the six market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions via five renewals, statistics which include three (9/2, 11/4 & 3/1**) winners.

Record of the course winners in the fifth race:

2/3—Hint Of Mint (2 x good)

1/2—Clic Work (good)

2/7—Winning Spark (soft & heavy)

3.15: Just the three runners line up in the Placepot finale and with so little to choose between the trio, it’s a case of including all three entries in the Placepot permutation and hoping that the horse with the least units prevails.  For the record, the marginal list of preference reads as NOTARFBAD, TINKER TIME and ASTRA DE LA COUR.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 9/4 market leader duly obliged.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Taunton card on Thursday – followed by their five year stats at the track + Profits/losses accrued:

3—Charlie Longsdon (1/14 – loss of 9 points)

3—Paul Nicholls (46/147 – Profit of 7 points)

3—Jeremy Scott (8/53 – loss of 4 points)

2—Chris Down (7/77 – Profit of 9 points)

2—Johnny Farrelly (6/42 – Profit of 7 points)

2—Harry Fry (13/56 – loss of 12 points)

2—Sue Gardner (4/48 – loss of 18 points)

2—Martin Keighley (1/21 – loss of 13 points)

2—Nick Lampard (0/1)

2—Neil Mulholland (5/67 – loss of 34 points)

2—Henry Oliver (1/10 – loss of 6 points)

+ 21 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

46 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Newcastle (NH): £451.30 – 8 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced

Warwick: £31.30 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Chelmsford: £1,263.70 – 6 favourites – 1 winner & 5 unplaced

 

 

Stat of the Day, 8th December 2016

Wednesday's Result :

7.15 Kempton : Timekeeping @ 5/2 BOG 3rd at 7/4 Tracked leaders, led over 3f out, headed inside final furlong, no extra.

Thursday's pick goes in the...

2.40 Taunton

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Winning Spark @ 4/1 BOG

Why?

After Wednesday's stack of stats, it's quite a short/simple one today with a 9 yr old gelding with course and distance form trained by a handler who seems to get more than expected from a small string of handicappers.

That trainer is Jackie du Plessis, who has had 17 handicap wins from just 109 runs (15.6% SR) over the last 4 years, resulting in level stakes profits of 35.43pts at an attractive ROI of 32.5% and that's from blindly backing all of them.

In terms of today's contests, those 109 runners are...

  • 16/97 (16.5%) for 36.46pts (+37.6%) from her male runners
  • 13/83 (15.7%) for 6.32pts (+7.6%) ridden by today's jockey JA Best
  • 13/57 (22.8%) for 61.56pts (+108%) over trips of 2m3f to 2m7f
  • 8/53 (15.1%) for 31.12pts (+58.7%) over hurdles
  • 4/24 (16.7%) for 5.75pts (+24%) at Class 3
  • and 3/14 (21.4%) for 9.34pts (+66.7%) here at Taunton

And of course, all of the above apply to Winning Spark, who saves his best for this venue with 2 wins and 3 places from 7 starts in handicap hurdles here, all under today's jockey.

Of those 7 previous visits, he has 2 wins and a place from 4 runs at 2.3f/2m3.5f, he has a win ands 2 places from 3 Class 3 runs and is 1 from 2 here this year...

...hence...a 1pt win bet on Winning Spark at 4/1 BOG with Hills who led the way at 5.40pm on Wednesday. To see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.40 Taunton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Placepot Pointers – Thursday November 24

TAUNTON – APRIL 24

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2015: £63.50 (6 favourites – 2 winners & 4 unplaced)

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Taunton: 

Leg 1 (12.45): 10 (Winningtry) & 6 (Misterton)

Leg 2 (1.15): 2 (Lost In Lecce), 5 (Culm Councellor) & 1 (Fair To Middling)

Leg 3 (1.45): 3 (Earthmoves), 6 (Moss On The Mill) & 8 (Fort Worth)

Leg 4 (2.20): 11 (Miracle Cure), 9 (Beau Du Brizais) & 5 (Western Sunrise)

Leg 5 (2.55): 4 (Fine Resolve) & 3 (Replacement Plan)

Leg 6 (3.25): 2 (The Kvilleken) & 6 (Lets Go Dutchess)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.45: WINNINGTRY started the ball rolling for the Paul Nicholls/Trevor Hemmings team at the first time of asking at Wincanton, before running third in a decent event at Ascot.  This is ‘Nicholls country’ as you probably know and Paul can start the Taunton year off to winning effect, chiefly at the expense of MISTERTON on this occasion.  Harry Fry (trainer of MISTERTON) is now in his fifth year of training – where does the time go?  I received a letter yesterday telling me when my exact state pension date is due.  It’s 955 days (though I will not be able to retire) – not that I’m counting!

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 8/11 duly obliged.

1.15: I have made the point several times down the years that handicap hurdle races beyond the minimum trip offer the worst favourite record in either sector of the sport and though only five runners go to post for this weak contest, it could prove difficult to name the favourite!  With Philip Hobbs being one of the main understudies to Paul Nicholls at Taunton down the years, I guess that his Midnight Legend filly LOST IN LECCE fits the bill.  Six-year-olds lead the seven-year-olds 3-2 via six renewals of the contest, the only ‘edge’ I can find, whereby the relevant raiders (one from each vintage) are taken as the main dangers, namely CULM COUNCILLOR and FAIR TO MIDDLING.

Favourite factor: Only one favourite has won via six contests, though five winners scored at a top price of 11/2.  Four of the six market leaders snared Placepot positions

Your first 30 days for just £1

1.45: Related to fine old warriors in Ptit Zig and Earthmover, EARTHMOVES needs to up his game to be mentioned in the same breath though as a six-year-old, the Paul Nicholls representative still has time on his side.  Connections of Nick Schofield’s mount might have most to fear from MOSS ON THE MILL and FORT WORTH, providing that Jonjo’s latter named raider is one of the inmates that has a forward gear at present, which is not guaranteed, for all that the trainer has shown signs of coming back to life recently.  A fair few of the other contenders might have been nabbed by the handicapper for now.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 11/4 favourite prevailed.

Record of the course winners in the third race:

1/2—Minellacelebration (good)

1/3—Earthmoves (soft)

2.20: I thought that the ground might be a little too lively for MIRCALE CURE a few weeks back at Wincanton but that proved not to be the case whereby the Venetia Williams raider can follow up on what should be similar conditions with the rain in the west (supposedly) easing up on Wednesday. Providing a fall close home has not knocked his confidence, BEAU DU BRIZAIS should figure prominently, arguably alongside WESTERN SUNRISE.  Clic Work might not represent value for money from the top of the handicap for the Paul Nicholls team, not that you should ever write off his horses off entirely at this venue.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 2/1 favourite finished nearer last than first (10/17).

Record of the course winners in the fourth event on the card:

1/3—My Brother Sylvest (good)

2.55: Seven of the nine winners have carried a minimum burden of 10-11, statistics which reduce the field down from ten to four if you take the figures seriously.  The fact that seven-year-olds have won three of the last seven renewals suggests that FINE RESOLVE and REPLACEMENT PLAN are the pair to home in on, from a Placepot perspective at least.

Favourite factor: Two winning favourites to report, with five of the last six market leaders having finished in the frame.  Six of the last seven winners have scored at a top price of 9/2.

Record of the course winners in the fifth contest:

1/5—Edeiff’s Lad (good to soft)

3.25: Martin Keighley has three chances on the card but few of his inmates have the consistency of his eight-year-old raider THE KVILLEKEN who runs off the same mark as the last day, having been dropped a few notches by the official assessor of late.  LETS GO DUTCHESS is a similar type and this pair should snare the dividend between them if we are ‘live’ going into the last leg of our favourite wager.

Favourite factor: Both of the (3/1 & 10/3) market leaders have finished out with the washing thus far.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/7—Frozen Over (good)

4/14—Ballyegan (3 x good to soft & soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Newmarket card on Friday:

5 runners—Alexandra Dunn (9/59 – Profit of 22 points to level stakes)

4—Chris Down (6/73 – Profit of 8 points)

3—Jimmy Frost (1/37 – loss of 26 points)

3—Philip Hobbs (19/108 – loss of 41 points)

3—Martin Keighley (1/19 – loss of 10 points)

3—Paul Nicholls (45/144 – loss of 2 points)

2—Brian Barr (3/21 – loss of 9 points)

2—Bob Buckler (6/43 – loss of 13 points)

2—Johnny Farrelly (6/40 – Profit of 9 points)

2—Richard Woollacott (2/63 – loss of 53 points)

+ 32 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

61 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Musselburgh: £48.30 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Towcester: This is essentially a new meeting

Chelmsford: £212.80 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

Placepot pointers – Wednesday April 20

EPSOM – APRIL 20

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2015: £78.90 (7 favourites: 2 winners - 1 placed - 4 unplaced)

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Epsom: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 1 (Roudee), 5 (Monumental Man) & 2 (Duke Of Firenze)

Leg 2 (2.30): 2 (Claudio Monteverdi), 9 (So Di Mar) & 8 (Viren's Army)

Leg 3 (3.05): 13 (Knight Music), 10 (Prendergast Hill) & 8 (Gold Prince)

Leg 4 (3.40): 7 (Pacify) & 2 (What About Carlo)

Leg 5 (4.15): 2 (Generalship) & 3 (Najd)

Leg 6 (4.50): 4 (Marshal Dan Troop) & 2 (Machine Learner)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.00: Four-year-olds have won four of the last ten renewals which suggests that this year’s two vintage raiders (yes just two) demand plenty of attention, namely ROUDEE and CROSSE FIRE, the pair having crossed swords at Doncaster on soft ground last time out.  The two vintage representatives are very much listed in order of preference, especially as there appears to have been a change of heart regarding Roudee.  After greeting Roudee into the enclosure reserved for the winner on Town Moor, the assistant trainer suggested that Roudee would go straight to Chester, though we see him turning up here, reverting back to five furlongs.  Others for the overnight mix include last year's (fast ground) winner MONUMENTAL MAN and soft ground winner DUKE OF FIRENZE who has dropped down to a potential winning mark again.

Favourite factor: Four of the 12 favourites have finished in the frame, statistics which include two successful (3/1 & 5/4) market leaders.  The last five winners have scored at 25/1-20/1-12/1-7/1-13/2.  Nine of the last fifteen horses to have claimed toteplacepot positions have been returned in double figures.

Epsom record of course winners in the opening event:

1/3--Duke Of Firenze

2/4--Monumental Man (won this race last year)

2.30 ('Derby Trial'): This Epsom Derby trial has failed to produce a winner of the ‘Blue Riband’ since 1939, but the contest has offered up half decent gold medallists all the same.  Heavy ground course winner Viren's Army has to be of interest, albeit Richard Hannon's Twirling Candy colt is pretty much exposed now, so much so that his sixth juvenile assignment was when finishing third in a Group 3 contest on the continent in November.  Only beaten 'three parts' that day, VIREN'S ARMY is entitled to plenty of respect, though it might prove a little disappointing if John Gosden's Dubawi filly SO DI MAR failed to ruffle his fathers in receipt of five pounds. John was saddling his third winner of the race during the last nine years when his odds on chance Christophermarlowe breezed up by four lengths twelve months ago.  Aidan O'Brien has offered the green light to his Galileo raider CLAUDIO MONTEVERDI who has already tackled soft/heavy ground to winning effect.  Unless the infamous camber affects the result, I cannot envisage any other winner than the three horses mentioned in dispatches.

Favourite factor: Eleven of the last eighteen favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions, statistics which include nine winners.

Epsom record of course winners in the second race on the card:

1/1--Viren's Army

3.05 ('Great Met'): Four-year-olds have won eight of the last fifteen renewals of the ’Great Met’, a race which used to command plenty of media space a few years ago. Four of the six 'junior' runners in the line-up immediately attract the eye, namely GOLD PRINCE, ANGENT GIBBS, PRENDERGAST HILL and KNIGHT MUSIC.  All four representatives have won on soft/heavy ground, whilst Epsom and Brighton winners are involved which is always worth a length or three at this switchback track.  The relevant quartet are going to take some sorting out overnight accordingly.  If I had to side with one of the four at present, the nod might go to KNIGHT MUSIC who has won three of his last four races, including a nine length romp at Brighton under heavy conditions, albeit in a three horse event.  Michael Attwater's raider just happens to be a son of Epsom Derby winner Sir Percy who won a Group 2 event on soft ground leading up to his 'Blue Riband' success.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Favourite factor: Nine of the last sixteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which includes three winners.

Epsom record of course winners in the third contest:

3/4--Leah Freya

1/3--Lungarno Palace (winner of this race last year)

1/4--Barwick

1/1--Prendergast Hill

3.40 ('City & Surburban'): Four-year-olds have won eleven of the last seventeen renewals of this Class 2 (City & Suburban) event whilst the last nine gold medallists have carried weights of 8-11 more. Putting the stats and facts together produces and overnight short list of PACIFY, ELBERETH and (possibly) ARCHANGEL RAPHAEL. Course and distance winner ELBERETH has to overcome going conditions which is an unknown factor in his case, whilst PACIFY meets his Newbury conqueror WHAT ABOUT CARLO (last back end) on unfavourable terms.  That said, PACIFY is a four-year-old who could have strengthened up over the winter (Ralph Becket has his team in good form), whilst WHAT ABOUT CARLO was beaten in this race last year when a well fancied market leader.

Favourite factor: 12/23 market leaders of late have finished in the frame, statistics which include six winners.

Epsom record of course winners in the fourth race:

2/4--What About Carlo (beaten favourite in this race last year)

1/1--Elbereth

1/5--Sennockian Star

4.15: The last seven winners of this maiden event have scored at a top price of 4/1, as have ten gold medallists during the last twelve years.  ‘Team Hannon’ has only saddled five horses in this event during the last nine years with the stable securing victories at 5/2 and 6/4* during the period.  NAJD is the Hannon representative this time around and the trainer reported this time last year that he was a big juvenile, perhaps the reason that we have not seen him on a racecourse until now.  Very much like his sire Dick Turpin apparently, he would only need to be half as good to figure prominently on Wednesday.  That said, GENERALSHIP and SILCA STAR have already gained (limited) experience which could make the difference between victory and defeat on this occasion.  GENERALSHIP was beaten quite a long way on debut, but with John having waxed lyrical via a stable tour early in 2015, his New Approach representative was never going to be 'knocked about' on his first day at school.  However, the fact that John has been quick to use blinkers on the March foal does create some concern.

Favourite factor: Fifteen of the last seventeen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, with nine successful market leaders being registered during the period.

4.50: Six of the last nine winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-4 and with MARSHAL DAN TROOP having won on heavy ground on his third and final start as a juvenile, Peter Chapple-Hyam's Lawman colt is the first name on the team sheet.  MACHINE LEARNER and GOLD FAITH are others to consider.  A decent effort by Viren's Army in the 'Derby Trial' on the card would be a boost for connections of MACHINE LEARNER who ran Richard Hannon's raider to less than two lengths on soft ground at Nottingham on his last assignment, albeit MACHINE LEARNED was in receipt of eight pounds on that occasion..

Favourite factor: Six of the ten market leaders have finished in the frame (five winners) in the toteplacepot finale thus far.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Epsom card on Wednesday:

4--Richard Hannon (9/39 at Epsom last season)

3--Michael Attwater (0/6)

3--Ed Dunlop (0/5)

3--Mark Johnston (3/23)

3--Pat Phelan (8/60)

2--Andrew Balding (4/29)

2--Ralph Beckett (1/6)

2--Peter Crate (0/6)

2--John Gosden (3/8)

2--Eve Johnson-Houghton (1/8)

2--Gary Moore (0/17)

+ 26 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

54 declared runners

 

Wednesday's overview:

Placepot dividends from last year's corresponding meetings + trainer stats: 

Catterick: £2,026.20 (6 runners - No winners - 2 placed - 4 unplaced)

Lingfield A/W: £13.10 (6 favourites - 5 winners & 1 placed)

Perth: £113.70 (7 favourites - 1 winner - 4 placed - 2 unplaced) - Sandy Thomson secured a 550/1 double last year (28/1 & 18/1) - 3 runners on Wednesday

Taunton: £421.50 (6 favourites - 3 winners & 3 unplaced)

 

Epsom overview (Trainers who saddles winners on the card last year with runners on Wednesday):

Andrew Balding (7/2 winner last year) - saddles Kingston Kurrajong (2.30) & Elbereth (3.40)

Michael Bell (14/1) - saddles Machine Learner (4.50)

John Gallagher (4/1) - saddles Lugarno Palace (3.05)

John Gosden (4/6*) - saddles So Mi Dar (2.30) & Generalship (4.15)

 

Stat of the Day, 7th April 2016

Wednesday's Result :

7.45 Kempton: Street Duel @ 100/30 BOG still to run (report to follow later)

Thursday's runner goes in the...

3.15 Taunton:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Minellacelebration at 5/1 BOG.

Why?

This 6yr old gelding wa sa course and distance winner last time out, 17 days ago and comes back to the track with a 3 from 5 (11331) record in handicap hurdle contests. And with today's race in mind, those 5 outings have produced the following...

  • 3 wins from 4 at odds below 11/2, 3 from 4 within 3 weeks of his last run, 3 from 4 in fields of 6-11 runners
  • he's 2 from 4 with today's jockey and 2 from 3 at Class 4.

And in hcp hurdle races of 6-11 runners at odds below 11/2 within 3 weeks of his last run, he has three wins from three for 9.28pts (+309.3% ROI) profit and two of those runs were at Class 4 and two were under today's jockey. They weren't the same two races, but that LTO win was a Class 4 race with today's jockey!

In addition to the specific stats surrounding the horse and his suitability to today's conditions, we really should look at a much bigger general picture and to do this, I'm going to talk about course and distance handicap hurdle winners returning to the scene of a C&D win off the back of a win (anywhere) last time out.

And since 2008, such horses have won 295 of 1505 (19.6% SR) for 187.5pts (+12.5% ROI) profit. 1505 is a reliable enough sample size, but as it's likely to be too big for some of you, let me break them down as follows...

  • those running over the same C&D as LTO are 211/1034 (20.4% SR) for 163.7pts (+15.9% ROI)
  • those last seen 11 to 30 days ago are 157/819 (19.2% SR) for 180.9pts (+22.2% ROI)
  • those racing over trips of 2m3f to 3m2f are 139/692 (20.1% SR) for 144.5pts (+20.9% ROI)
  • on good ground : 95/489 (19.4% SR) for 127.8pts (+26.1% ROI)
  • 6yr olds are 82/387 (21.2% SR) for 83.7pts (+21.7% ROI)

And a small composite micro you could use is : UK hcp hurdlers at the same C&D as LTO, 11-30 DSLR, running over 2m4f to 3m2f on good/good to soft ground for 32 winners from 128 (25% SR) and profits of 122.1pts (+95.4% ROI), from which...

  • Class 3/4 runners are 28/95 (29.5% SR) for 134.6pts (+141.7% ROI)
  • in the last three years : 18/60 (30% SR) for 83.5pts (+139.1% ROI)
  • 5/6 yr olds are 10/45 (22.2% SR) for 31.6pts (+70.3% ROI)
  • AND horses fitting all three of the above criteria are 7/17 (41.2% SR) for 42.1pts (+247.5% ROI)

So the call is...a 1pt win bet on Minellacelebration at 5/1 BOG with any of Bet365, Coral, Hills and/or BetVictor, who were the four market leaders at 6.40pm on Wednesday evening. To see what your bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.15 Taunton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 3rd March 2016

Wednesday's Result :

2.45 Wincanton : Quite by Chance @ 1/4 BOG 3rd at 11/4 (In touch, headway when mistake 9th, led 11th, headed after 4 out, outpaced when left 3rd 2 out)

Thursday's runner goes in the...

4.25 Taunton:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Tornado In Milan @ 7/2 BOG

Why?

This 10 yr old is 3 from 15 over hurdles, which is reasonable, if not spectacular, but looking at today's conditions in relation to that 3/15 record and I see that Tornado In Milan is 2/8 here at Taunton and 2/8 on soft ground. He's also 2/7 in a hood and 2 from 2 running 6 to 20 days after his last run. Also of note here is his 1 from 2 record over this trip, 1/2 over C&D and 1/2 under today's jockey Conor Ring who claims 5lbs today.

So, we know the horse should be happy enough, what of the yard in general? Well, trainer Evan Williams's hurdlers are 14/87 (16.1% SR) for 65.4pts (+75.32% ROI), from which...

  • those competing at 2m1f to 2m3.5f are 12/67 (17.9% SR) for 74pts (+110.4% ROI)
  • those racing 6 to 75 DSLR are 12/66 (18.2% SR) for 64.9pts (+98.3% ROI)
  • those with a mark of 110 to 130 are 10/32 (31.25% SR) for 73.2pts (+228.9% ROI)
  • and those carrying 11-06 to 11-12 are 7/20 (35% SR) for 25pts (+125% ROI)

As I said earlier, jockey Conor Ring claims 5lbs and Evan Williams' horse have gone well in the past when partnered by such claimers. More specifically, since the start of 2008, at odds of 5/4 to 11/1, Evan's NH handciappers ridden by a 5lb claimer are 27/154 (17.5% SR) for 44.7pts at a healthy enough ROI of 29%, but we won't stop there! A closer inspection of those 154 runners shows that...

  • those who finished in the top 4 LTO are 20/89 (22.5% SR) for 45.1pts (+50.7% ROI)
  • hurdlers are 14/72 (19.4% SR) for 42.7pts (+59.3% ROI)
  • those rated 116 to 130 are 11/49 (22.5% SR) for 32.1pts (+65.5% ROI)
  • Class 3 runners are 11/49 (22.5% SR) for 30.2pts (+61.6% ROI)
  • those racing over trips of 2m1.5f to 2m4f are 16/29 (55.2% SR) for 112.4pts (+387.6% ROI)
  • on soft ground : 4/25 (16% SR) for 18.7pts (+74.8% ROI)
  • here at Taunton : 4/13 (30.8% SR) for 21.6pts (+166.1% ROI)

So today's play is...a 1pt win bet on Tornado In Milan at 7/2 BOG, a price widely available, although Betway (non-BOG until 10.00am) are a standout 4/1. To see your preferred bookie's prices, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.25 Taunton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Double Dutch, 23rd February 2016

Fingal's Cave was too good/strong for his rivals in Wolverhampton's finale yesterday, but it counted for nothing after a really poor show in the Lingfield opener with our runners finishing 4th and 6th of justsix runners.

It has been tough over the last week or so, but little/no point dwelling on it, let's crack on!

Monday's results were as follows:

Colourfilly : 4th at 9/4 (adv 2/1)
Tabla : 6th at 3/1 (adv 7/2)
----------------------------------------------------
Fingal's Cave : WON at 15/8 (adv 5/2)
National Service : 4th at 5/1 (adv 10/3)

Results to date:
811 winning selections from 2926 = 27.72%
250 winning bets in 757 days = 33.03%

Stakes: 1513.00pts
Returns: 1582.82pts
P/L : +69.82pts (+4.61% ROI)

Your first 30 days for just £1

And to Tuesday's Selections...

2.10 Wetherby :

An awful looking contest, where only the top two in the betting have shown any kind of recent form worth writing about! So hopefully they'll lead the way home here.

Zayfire Aramis' run at Uttoxeter 24 days ago was his best to date and more impressively came off the back of a 344-day absence from the track. Assuming there's no bounce factor here, a repeat of that effort would more than likely be enough here. He only really got found out late on in that 2m4f encounter, yet still probably would have won it, but for bumping into a progressive sort who was completing a hat-trick. I say that, because the rest of the field were strung out and well beaten. The drop in trip should help and I'd expect him to be in fighting at 3/1 BOG today.

Copt Hill has proven to be more consistent, though, and his 7/2 BOG pricetag might prove a little generous later this afternoon. He doesn't win often enough, but has shown signs that he might be ready to land one with increasingly improved efforts in each of his last three outings, where has has finished third with decreasing margins of defeat each time. Only beaten by half a length in a better race last time out, he now has the in-form Craig Nichol on his back and as it's Craig's only booked ride, he'll be keen to extend his good record in Wetherby handicaps (currently 7/27) on this one.

4.45 Taunton :

Another weak looking contest, where the field seems to be more about quantity than quality! The obvious starting point has to be the 7/4 BOG The Wealerdealer, who was last seen on a racecourse winning a similar event to this at Exeter some 294 days ago, which came 300 days after his last racecourse outing. But during both long absences, he was running in and winning PTP contests, the latest of which was a win 86 days ago. He's clearly in decent form and although he might have something to prove in testing conditions, should still be the pick of the bunch here.

Next best is likely/hopefully the 4/1 BOG Decade Player, who was recently second between the flags on his debut for his new yard, but the drop right back in trip should really suit him based on past form. All his best Irish form came from around this shorter trip in fields of 8 to 15 runners and in a fairly unappealing contest today, he could well build on the promise shown in that PTP event a month ago.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows...

Zayfire Aramis / The Wealerdealer @ 10/1 (3/1 & 7/4 : Stan James)
Zayfire Aramis / Decade Player @ 19/1 (3/1 & 4/1 : Paddy Power)
Copt Hill / The Wealerdealer @ 11.38/1 (7/2 & 7/4 : Stan James)
Copt Hill / Decade Player @ 20.67/1 (10/3 & 4/1 : Betfair Sports)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Placepot pointers – Tuesday 23rd February

TAUNTON

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2015: £1,386.90 (6 favourite: 1 winner--3 placed--2 unplaced)

 

2.00: OSCAR JANE seems to have a lot going for her, especially with heavy ground in place which she overcame with aplomb when winning her third race via the last five assignments here at Taunton earlier in the month.  A dual course and distance winner now from four efforts at the track, Johnny Farrelly's nine year-old is the 'elder statesperson' on this occasion but a mare in form is worth half a stone at times and against other mares here, she is the first name on the team sheet ahead of SHOOFLY MILLY.

Favourite factor: Last year's inaugural 5/2 favourite duly obliged.

Taunton record of course winners in the opening event:

2/4--Oscar Jane (Dual C&D winner)

 

 

2.30: Six and seven-year-olds have (equally) shared four of the five renewals thus far.  KNIGHT'S REWARD is the lone six-year-old in the field and the 'junior' raider might take care of the preferred pair of the trio of seven-year-olds, namely ALLCHILLEDOUT and DRUMMOND.  If the vintage stats are to be breached on this occasion, DRIVE ON LOCKY (stable companion of Oscar Jane in the opening event) might prove to be the joker in the pack.

Favourite factor: Three of the five market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include (9/4 & 6/4) two winners.

Taunton record of course winners in the second contest on the card:

1/14--Sun Quest (C&D winner)

 

 

3.05: THE BROCK AGAIN is the first of four Paul Nicholls representatives on the card and is one of two top weighted handicap runners for the champion trainer.  Paul has only trained more winners at Wincanton and Cheltenham (respectively) during the last five years than he has saddled here at Taunton (45 in total) and THE BROCK AGAIN could go one better than when finishing second under similar conditions at Wincanton last time out.  Colin Tizzard's recent course winner SONNY THE ONE is the obvious danger.  Fencing newcomer STORMING STRUMPET would also be a live threat if taking to the larger obstacles.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Taunton card.

Taunton record of course winners in the third race:

1/4--Sonny The One

2/8--Exemplary

 

 

3.40: A Paul Nicholls raider (ANTARTICA DE THAIX) is likely to have to play second fiddle to ROBINESSE, given that the latest form line of the latter named Oliver Sherwood raider was well and truly franked in a Grade 2 event at Sandown on Friday.  Having run Jessber's Dream to a length and a spit at Exeter under these conditions last time out, ROBINESSE will surely take the beating on Tuesday.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 30/100 favourite duly landed the odds, before last year's 1/2 market leader could only finish second, albeit securing a toteplacepot position in the process.

 

 

4.10: Five-year-olds have won three of the five contests thus far and QUALANDO (Paul Nicholls is usually live to these trends) is the only vintage representative this time around. The winner of the 'Fred Winter' at the Cheltenham Festival last year, Paul's Lando gelding is due to be ridden by a seven pound claimer who has 14 wins to his name whereby the claim could make the difference between victory and defeat.  Two horses down the weights appeal as the biggest threats, namely COBRA DE MAI and ROYAL VACATION.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Favourite factor: Two of the six market leaders have finished in the frame (one winner) via five renewals to date.

Taunton record of course winners in the fifth event:

1/4--Sea Wall (C&D winner)

3/9--Tornado In Milan (C&D winner)

 

 

4.45: As suggested several times down the years, Hunter Chase races offer some of the best stats relating to winning favourites under either code of our favourite sport.  Fancied horses expected to run well on this occasion include THE WHEALERDEALER, DELTA BORGET and SWALLOWS DELIGHT.

Favourite factor: The toteplacepot finale is another new race on the Taunton programme.

 

 

All references to placed horses on these pages are based on an exact science regarding general place terms offered by bookmakers and totepool.com

 

25GBP Free Bet on Horse Racing

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Taunton card on Tuesday:

5--Colin Tizzard

4--Paul Nicholls

3--Johnny Farrelly

3--Tim Vaughan

3--Evan Williams

2--Alexandra Dunn

2--Sue Gardner

2--Tom George

2--Chris Gordon

2--Paul Henderson

2--Richard Phillips

2--Andrew Quick

2--Richard Woollacott

1--I Chanon

1--Roderick Chelton

1--Miss Beth Childs

1--Vic Dartnall

1--Steven Dixon

1--Nikki Evans

1--Harry Fry

1--Mrs L Glanville

1--Polly Gundry

1--Gail Heywood

1--L Jefford

1--Mrs Julie Mansell

1--Miss Kelly Morgan

1--Seamus Mullins

1--Miss V J Nicholls

1--Sally Randall

1--Mrs E Scott

1--Jeremy Scott

1--Oliver Sherwood

1--Dan Skelton

1--Katie Stephens

1--Miss Hannah Taylor

1--Sam Thomas

1--Venetia Williams

1--Laura Young

59 declared runners

 

Placepot pointers – Tuesday 2nd February

TAUNTON 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £379.90 (6 favourites: 1 winner--1 placed--1 unplaced)

Your first 30 days for just £1

2.15: Horses carrying weights of 11 stones or more have secured 13 of the 19 available toteplacepot positions to date, stats which include five of the seven winners at 12/1-6/1-9/2-4/1--5/4.  The bottom two horses can be eliminated if we adhere to the weight trends, whereby I am short listing GLENDERMOT and RUN BOB RUN at the overnight stage. COMICAL RED is another horse to consider in the opening contest, especially as eight-year-olds have won three of the last five renewals.  COMICAL RED is the lone vintage representative on this occasion. 
Favourite factor: The seven favourites have secured two medals of each colour to date, with one (15/8) market leader failing to reach the frame.

 
Taunton record of course winners in the first race:
1/3--Oscar Jane (C&D winner)
1/12--Comical Red (C&D winner)
 


2.45: Six-year-olds have won four of the last six renewals though the trio of vintage representatives look up against it this time around.  Forget about the even money quote in the trade press about BLOODY MARY who could go off as short as 1/2 from my viewpoint, particularly as Nicky Henderson's lone raider on the card appears to only have LOU VERT to beat.  BANYU looks booked for third spot. 

Favourite factor: Favourites have finished in the frame in the last seven (of nine in total) contests to date, statistics which include five winners.  

 
3.15: The two course winners (FOUNTAINS FLYPAST and GALLIC WARRIOR - see stats below) should take some kicking out of the frame though from a win perspective, the younger raider VIC DE TOUZAIN makes more appeal.  Venetia Williams sends three raiders to Taunton on Tuesday and this Dom Alco representative is arguably the pick of the trio of stable contenders.
Favourite factor: Last year's marginal 10/3 favourite finished out of the frame behind horses which claimed toteplacepot positions when sent off at 7/2- 6/1-20/1.  
 
Taunton record of course winners in the third event on the card:
1/2--Fountains Flypast
1/1--Gallic Warrior
 

3.45:  I short listed last year's 16/1 winner (Tornado In Milan) which was the first of two winners for Evan Williams (84/1 double) from just four runners on the card. Upwards and onward in positive mode by informing that horses carrying a maximum burden of 11-1 have secured seven of the 11 available toteplacepot position, statistics which include all four (16/1-14/1-17/2-5/4*) winners.  Evan saddles DE FAOITHESDREAM this time around, the second on four runners on the card again, via 11 penultimate stage entries.  Evan's ten-year-old reverts back to hurdling here but it's worth noting that his record is better over timber (3/10) than over the larger obstacles (3/13).  WAR SINGER is another win and place option, whilst AFTER HOURS completes my trio against the remaining four contenders.  
Favourite factor: The five favourites to date have secured gold and bronze medals between them via four renewals.
 
 
4.15: WYCHWOODS BROOK is another Evan Williams raider on the card with definite claims, with connections possibly having most to fear from SONNY THE ONE at the other end of the handicap. Now and and then you have to limit the potential selections in attempting to keep the Placepot permutation within the budget and this pair are expected to get us through to the finale if we were live going into the penultimate leg of our favourite wager.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Taunton card.
 
Taunton record of course winners in the fifth race:
1/1--Wychwoods Brook
 

4.45: Dual course and distance winner EXEMPLARY might have to be dropped a few pounds before regaining the winning thread but that said, a toteplacepot position is certainly up for grabs in this grade/company.  Others for the overnight mix include JOIN THE NAVY, PRECIOUS GROUND and MILESTONE.  

Favourite factor: Five renewals have slipped by since the inaugural favourite scored at 5/4.  The subsequent winners have scored at odds ranging between 11/2 & 50/1.  Three of the six market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

 
Taunton record of course winners in the toteplacepot finale:
2/7--Exemplary (Dual C&D winner)
1/3--Winged Express
1/4--Jon The Navy
 
 
All references to placed horses on these pages are based on an exact science regarding general place terms offered by bookmakers and totepool.com
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Taunton card on Tuesday:
4--Johnny Farrelly
4--Evan Williams
3--David Pipe
3--Robert Walford
3--Venetia Williams
2--John Flint
2--Sue Gardner
2--Mark Gillard
2--Chris Gordon
2--Anthony Honeyball
2--Neil Mulholland
2--Paul Nicholls
2--Henry Oliver
2--Nigel Twiston-Davies
2--Richard Woollacott
1--Kevin Bishop
1--Kate Buckett
1--Paul Cowley
1--Henry Daly
1--Alexandra Dunn
1--Brian Eckley
1--Hywel Evans
1--Nicky Henderson
1--Philip Hide
1--Philip Hobbs
1--Fergal O'Brien
1--Jamie Snowden
1--Kate Stephens
1--Colin Tizzard
1--Laura Young
 52 declared runners

Double Dutch, 2nd February 2016

Close but not close enough was the verdict from our opening bet of the week/month. In the end, the well fancied National Service was two lengths away from providing us with an ideal start to February via a 12/1 double, after Little Big Man had already obliged at Kempton.

Monday's results were as follows:

Little Big Man : WON at 3/1 (adv 2/1)
Little Indian : 3rd at 11/4 (adv 7/2)
----------------------------------------------------
National Service : 2nd at 7/4 (adv 9/4)
Quite A Story : 4th at 5/1 (adv 10/3)

Results to date:
794 winning selections from 2856 = 27.80%
246 winning bets in 739 days = 33.29%

Stakes: 1477.00pts
Returns: 1550.53pts
P/L : +73.53pts (+4.98% ROI)

Your first 30 days for just £1

Today's Selections...

3.45 Taunton

After Hours @ 11/4 BOG
Henry Oliver's handicappers are profitable to follow and this horse has already won two of five starts, most recently when winning on heavy ground at Haydock 45 days ago. He looked beaten that day, but stayed on well to just regain the lead very late on. The 3rd and 4th from that day have both won since and the extra furlong should help him here, if runs in a similar manner to last time.

Master Red @ 11/4 BOG
If he gets round, he's in the mix basically. That's been his story over hurdles so far, anyway. Really good in bumpers, finishing 121 and then since a switch to hurdling, has often let the team down by his jumping. 3 falls in 7 races, but 2 wins and 2 places from 4 completions tells its own story. Off the track for a considerable time, I'd expect his new handler to have worked on that jumping. Hopefully we'll see that here.

4.15 Taunton

Wychwoods Brook @ 5/2 BOG
A course and distance winner last time out and should be able to defy a 5lb rise in weight as he's still below his highest winnnig mark. He loves the mud, having won 3 from 7 plus a placed effort on heavy ground. Recent defeats have either been at a higher grade or over longer trips; Class 3 and 2m7f look ideal for this 10 yr old nowadays.

Sonny The One @ 4/1 BOG
He may well be a 10-race maiden and 0 from 3 over fences, but he has been knocking on the door finishing 242 in those 3 efforts over fences. His latest effort was his best to date and this youngster could well benefit from receinving plenty of weight from his rivals and it won't have gone unnoticed that Team Tizzard are coming in to some excellent form as we approach the business end of the season.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows...

After Hours  / Wychwoods Brook @ 12.13/1 (11/4 & 5/2 : BetVictor)
After Hours / Sonny The One @ 16.50/1 (5/2 & 4/1 : Betfair SB)
Master Red / Wychwoods Brook @ 11.25/1 (5/2 & 5/2 : 10Bet, Hills & Betfair SB)
Master Red / Sonny The One @ 16.50/1 (5/2 & 4/1 : Bet365 & Betfair SB)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Double Dutch, 23rd January 2016

After a couple of poor days, Friday was much better even if the final returns were the same.

No double to celebrate, I'm afraid, as E Fourteen's defeat by just a nose proved to be difference between a loss and a 16.88/1 double. To add insult to injury, our runner was just held off by one I'd suggested might just need a run!

Later, Aso was a winner at Market Rasen and although that doesn't help the bottom line, it did at least mean I hadn't gone three straight days without a winner and the ego remains intact!

Friday's results were as follows:

E Fourteen : 2nd at 4/1 (adv 9/2)
Hot Stuff : 4th at 11/4 (adv 7/4)
----------------------------------------------------
Aso : WON at 2/1 (adv 9/4)
Kalane : 3rd at 85/40 (adv 5/2)

Results to date:
786 winning selections from 2824 = 27.83%
244 winning bets in 731 days = 33.38%

Stakes: 1461.00pts
Returns: 1540.40pts
P/L : +79.40pts (+5.43% ROI)

Your first 30 days for just £1

Today's Selections...

2.55 Lingfield

Charlie Appleby and Godolphin are double handed here and it wouldn't be too much of a surprise if Anglophile and Pinzolo were the first two home today.

Anglophile is mega consistent with 8 successive top 2 finishes to his name. He's 2 from 4 here at Lingfield (1212), 3 from 6 at Class 2 (plus 3 x runner-up) and has a win and a runner-up finish from two efforts over course and distance. Recent form and his stats suggest he's going to be in the mix again at 5/2 BOG today.

And if he ends up finishing second again, then I'd expect Pinzolo to be the one who beats him. The booking of the in-form track specialist Adam Kirby would suggest the yard favour this one and his history suggests that only a near 9 month lay-off should be the obstacle in his way here.

The bulk of his career has been at Listed Class and better, but he's still 3 from 4 at this level and 2 from 2 on the A/W and his Listed class win is easily the best piece of form on offer today. He goes really well in these small fields and the current 15/8 BOG might prove a little generous later on.

4.30 Taunton

Vic Dartnall sends Un Majeur Aulmes here today as his only runner of the day and he does tend to do well with his sole representatives. The horse comes here off the back of a narrow defeat at Wincanton on Boxing Day, when going down by a neck in a race he should probably have won.

His main issue is that he doesn't do much when left in front and it's possible he took the lead too early last time out and idled, eventually getting caught late on. Denis O'Regan rides this track well and I'm sure they'll have learned from that defeat and at bottom weight will seek to make amends at 15/8 BOG.

The withdrawal of Jayo Time means that I didn't have to make a choice for my second selection, as Cash And Go is now the obvious one to take. The prowess of Venetia Williams heavy ground chasers is well documented (Aso won for us yesterday) and she has a real chance of adding to her season's tally here.

Cash And Go will be looking to build on a third placed finish at Sandown in a stronger race than this one three weeks ago and the drop in class might be all that he needs to get back to winning ways off a mark just 2lbs higher than his 2 chase successes to date and he's priced at 11/4 BOG to do so.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows...

Pinzolo / Un Majeur Aulmes @ 7.28/1 (15/8 & 15/8 : Betway)
Pinzolo / Cash And Go @ 9.78/1 (15/8 & 11/4 : Bet365, BetVictor & Betway)
Anglophile / Un Majeur Aulmes @ 9.06/1 (5/2 & 15/8 : Betway)
Anglophile / Cash And Go @ 12.13/1 (5/2 & 11/4 : generally)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Stat of the Day, 23rd January 2016

Friday's Result :

3.15 Chepstow : Waldorf Salad @ 11/4 BOG non-runner (meeting abandoned)

Saturday's runner goes in the...

3.55 Taunton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Winning Spark @ 3/1 BOG

Why?

This 9yr old gelding comes here off the back of a heavy ground course and distance win here 10 days ago and although penalised for the win, still receives weight from all of his main rivals. And whilst his hurdles record is quite modest at 2 wins from 18, conditions here look perfect for him.

As those 2 wins have both come from 10 rides under today's jockey James Best, both have come from six runs here at Taunton and both have come from four January outings.

In short, Winning Spark is 2 from 2 here at Taunton in January under James Best with wins coming at today's 2m3f trip on heavy ground and over 2m 3.5f on soft ground.

He is trained by Jackie du Plessis, who has found some success in handicap contests since taking her licence almost five years ago. To date 12 of her 81 (14.8% SR) handicappers have been winners with the resultant level stakes profits of 8.2pts providing a reasonable ROI of 10.1% from blind backing.

We can, of course, improve those figures by introducing some logical filters that apply to today's contest. Firstly we find that all 12 winners come from Miss du Plessis' 75 male runners with that 16% strike rate generating 14.2pts profit at an ROI of 18.9%, with those 75 runners providing the following stats...

  • those rated (OR) 95 to 125 are 12/67 (17.9% SR) for 22.2pts (+33.1% ROI)
  • those priced 15/8 to 12/1 are 12/63 (19.1% SR) for 26.2pts (+41.6% ROI)
  • those ridden by James Best are 11/62 (17.7% SR) for 12.4pts (+20% ROI)
  • those racing over trips of 19/20 furlongs are 8/20 (40% SR) for 43.3pts (+216.6% ROI)
  • those racing on heavy ground are 6/18 (33.3% SR) for 21.7pts (+120.5% ROI)

And Jackie's male NH handicappers rated 95 to 125 racing over 2m3f to 2m4f at odds of 15/8 to 10/1 under James Best are 7 from 12 (58.3% SR) for 36.5pts (+304.5% ROI), with those running on heavy ground winning four from five (80% SR) for 21.2pts profit at an ROI of 423.8%.

And my recommended bet, based on my data and prices available at 10.10pm is...

A 1pt win bet on Winning Spark and that's at 3/1 BOG with Boylesports / Paddy Power / Seanie Mac, whilst Betfred / Totesport offer the same price, but don't go BOG until morning. To see the rest of the market, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.55 Taunton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Double Dutch, 13th January 2016

Double Dutch, 13th January 2016

Another good day for us yesterday, albeit at the lower end of the odds ranges, as we came away with two winners, a runner-up and a non-runner after playing the very first and very last races of the day.

More Spice beat Secret Millionaire by half a lengtrh with their rivals well beaten in the opening 5f sprint to set us off with a 2/1 winner and the bonus of a 4/1 exacta, before a wait approaching three hours before Ludlow's closing bumper.

These bumpers aren't the usual type of race I go for, but on a day of poor quality racing it was our best option, yet after my preferred option Mac Gregory was withdrawn, I feared the worst. Not only did we lose one of our two chances of success, Alf n Dor's odds were reduced by 35% via the Rule 4.

We needn't have worried, though, as despite showing lots of signs of greenness and wandering around considerably over the final quarter mile, he fairly romped home by 21 lengths and after a flood of money for the eventual third placed horse, Handpicked, our SP of 15/8 was better than ther R4 price.

This left us with a double at 7.63/1 and a single at 2/1, a 4/1 exacta and for those doing the forecast doubles, a nice 12.92/1 payout. Hat-trick landed, can we get 4?

Tuesday's results were as follows:

Your first 30 days for just £1

More Spice : WON at 6/4 (adv 2/1)
Secret Millionaire : 2nd at 7/4 (adv 3/1)
The Exacta paid £5.00 here
----------------------------------------------------
Alf n Dor : WON at 15/8 (adv 11/4 = 9/5 after R4)
Mac Gregory : non-runner (adv 7/4)

Results to date:
781 winning selections from 2789 = 27.96%
243 winning bets in 722 days = 33.56%

Stakes: 1443.00pts
Returns: 1531.73pts
P/L : +88.73pts (+6.15% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

1.10 Taunton :

Petite Power (11/4 BOG) is likely to be popular today after catching the eye is an energy sapping hurdles debut at Leicester five weeks ago. He finished as a 1.25 length runner-up that day, despite coming off the back of a six month absence. He'll strip fitter for having had the run, will benefit from having tried hurdles for the first time and the way he ran last time suggested the 2m 4.5f wasn;t long enough for him, so today's 3m could very well be more suitable.

Should Petite Power not get the trip though, that's not a fear for A Plein Temps, who represents the in-form duo of Harry Fry and Noel Fehily. This horse stays 3m2f and was a runner-up at Exeter over 2m7f in treacherous conditions last time out. Although beaten by 9 lengths that day, he wasn't really ridden out once headed and still had the rest of the field well strung out behind him.

Harry Fry's hurdlers have a 34% strike rate (15/44) over the last couple of months (8/25 ridden by Fehily) and the yard also fare well with those runners who are their only runners of the day and with those stats in mind, a bet on A Plein Temps at 11/4 BOG might be a good decision.

*

2.55 Chelmsford :

This looks very much like a match between a pair both trading around the 2/1 BOG mark this morning, both trained by the in-form Stuart Williams who also has a decent record here at Chelmsford.

Pactolus has won three of his last six starts (2 of last three) and is 2 from 4 on this track, 2 from 3 at 9.5/10 furlongs, 4 from 9 oing left handed and has won one of two efforts over course and distance, that C&D win was two starts ago off a mark of 75 and he's well weighted today with his jockey taking 5lbs off a mark of 78.

My slight preference is for top weight Oakley Girl, who comes here seeking a hat-trick after wins at Lingfield and Wolverhampton either side of December. Raised 6lbs for a comfortable 6 lengths win last time out, she drops down in class to run here defending a 3 from 3 record on the A/W (2/2 at this trip).

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows...

Petite Power / Oakley Girl @ 10.25/1 (11/4 & 2/1 : generally)
Petite Power / Pactolus @ 10.25/1 (11/4 & 2/1 : Betfair SB)
A Plein Temps / Oakley Girl @ 10.25/1 (11/4 & 2/1 : Betfred, Betway & Totesport)
A Plein Temps / Pactolus @ 10.25/1 (11/4 & 2/1 : Betfair SB)

Stat of the Day, 13th January 2016

Stat of the Day, 13th January 2016

Tuesday's Result :

2.00 Ludlow : Celtic Intrigue @ 7/2 BOG 4th at 9/2 (Tracked leader, led before 15th, headed 4 out, weakened before 2 ou)

Wednesday's runner goes in the...

2.40 Taunton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Top Wood @ 3/1 BOG

Why?

Firstly David Pipe's male handicappers are 23 from 125 (18.4% SR) for 39.7pts profit (+31.8% ROI) here at Taunton over the last eight years, which is clearly a positive.

Secondly and more generally, over the last five years, his male runners carrying 10-13 to 11-09 over trips of 2m4f to 3m2f are 159/776 (20.5%SR) for 191.2pts (+24.6% ROI), of which handicap races have yielded 101 winners from 568 (17.8% SR) for for 170pts (+29.9% ROI) profit.

Of the 568 handicappers, chasers are 50 from 234 (21.4% SR) for 754.8pts (+32.4% ROI), broken down as follows...

  • Class 2 to 5 : 46/175 (26.3% SR) for 99.1pts (+56.7% ROI)
  • Those rated (OR) below 140 are 47/174 (27% SR) for 108.4pts (+62.3% ROI)
  • On heavy ground : 7/25 (28% SR) for 8.4pts (+33.2% ROI)
  • Here at Taunton : 3/5 (60% SR) for 8.3pts (+166% ROI)

And my recommended bet, based on my data and prices available at 7.35pm is...

A 1pt win bet on Top Wood and that's at 3/1 BOG with either Betfair, Boylesports, Hills, Seanie Mac and/or SkyBet, whilst Betfred / Totesport offer the same odds, but are non-BOG until morning. To see your preferred bookie's prices, you can always...

...click here for the betting on the 2.40 Taunton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.