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Stat of the Day, 27th January 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 27th January 2015

Zero Visibility certainly ran his race yesterday, but was definitely second best to the winner. I'm not convinced he was 13 lengths worse than the winner, after he was eased down once beaten and only made to do enough to hold on for a comfortable runner-up berth at our advised 9/4.

He ran really well until headed 2 from home, when he found very little for pressure and I was actually happy to see him eased down later on. There was no point in driving him to a three of four length defeat, when 2nd place wasn't in danger and he wasn't going to catch the winner.

It was, in my opinion anyway, a very sensible piece of handling in defeat. But a defeat it was, and so to break this current cold spell, we're setting our sights on Tuesday's...

4.00 Taunton:

Where, on a fairly bleak day of racing, Philip Hobbs' Milosam looks our best bet at 9/4 BOG.

Tuesday does look fairly bereft of meaningful, workable stats but both trainer and horse have good records here at Taunton and there's just about enough juice in the price to keep me interested.

Today's trainer...

Firstly, Philip Hobbs has a 19.3% strike rate (34 winners from 176) here at this track since 2009, and although only 32 of those races were over fences, 12 chase winners represents a very healthy 37.5% strike rate which has yielded 17.3pts profit at an ROI of 53.9%.

In handicap chases, Mr Hobbs is 8/22 (36.4% SR) for 20.5pts (+93.2% ROI) and more in line wit today's bet, those sent off at odds of 7/2 or shorter have won 6 of 13 (46.2% SR) for 5.45pts (+42% ROI) profit.

And his horse...

...Milosam, has won 4 of his 18 starts to date, which isn't bad in fairness, but a 4/18 career record becomes 4/12 over fences and if that wasn't good enough, he's 4/6 at Taunton over fences, all over today's course and distance in a string of results reading 111212, making him generally the one to beat around these parts.

He has won 4 of 9 races when at the head of the market and in races of 8 or fewer runners, he has won four of eight contests.

Milosam is clearly a track specialist and although he's up in weight from his last win here, this race should be his to win/lose, as all the rivals have question marks above them.

We're not breaking the bank here, but we're getting a fair price from a 1pt win bet on Milosam at 9/4 BOG with Hills. Boylesports also go 9/4, as you can see if you...

...click here for the latest betting on the 4.00 Taunton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Double Dutch, 17th January 2015

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 17th January 2015

Many thanks to Matt for yesterday's efforts. Not only did he give me the morning off from DD duties, he also broke the cycle of my recent "close, but no cigar" run of near misses.

Even during the recent dry spell, we've been clocking up the race winners, just not quite getting two together on the same day often enough. As Matt righly pointed out yesterday, the bottom line stats are still good and this is, of course, a long-term bank builder.

With regards to yesterday's success, not only did Matt pick two nice race winners, who both won a shade cosily in the end, by taking 59/20 & 21/10 about Steve Rogers and Spirit of Gondree respectively, his 11.25/1 double absolutely smashed the SP returns of 8.84/1 by a massive 27%.

BOG betting means you never leave money on the table!

Friday's results were as follows:

Steve Rogers: Won at 11/4 (adv 59/20)
Pim Street: 5th at 7/2 (adv 4/1)
------------------------------------------
Spirit Of Gondree: won at 13/8 (adv 21/10)
Harwoods Star: 3rd at 2/1 (adv 9/5)

Your first 30 days for just £1

Results to date:
460 winning selections from 1616 = 28.47%
143 winning bets in 419 days = 34.13%

Stakes: 837.50pts
Returns: 909.04pts

P/L : +71.54pts (+8.54% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

With yesterday's success behind us, it'd be great to round the week off with two more winners from these...

2.40 Haydock:

Just six go to post for this one, but the bookies say only two of them can win and I'm inclined to agree with them.

Whilst a Class 2 chase is a decent standard of contest, it's a major drop in class for 6/4 BOG Carraig Mor, who won a Grade 2 contest two starts ago and was in the process of running another big race last out, before falling whilst leading in a Grade 1 event at Kempton and provided there's no ill effects from that effort on Boxing Day, he should have a major say in proceedings here.

The one he has to beat is the in-form 9/4 BOG Third Intention, who also drops down in class and who was a winner here in a graduation chase back in November and has run well in two Grade 1 events since. Although he finished third and fifth in those two runs, he wasn't disgraced by any means and he's an obvious backup plan for me, considering he beat the reopposing Mwaleshi by 17 lengths the last time they met.

*

2.50 Taunton:

Evan Williams' horses might not be winning as many races as he'd like them to, but they never seem to be far away come the final conclusion and he'll expect another good show from Oscar Sunset here today. He's not got too many miles on the clock and one fourth place finish is his worst result in 7 starts (2111422) and he was only touched off by a neck behind the useful Radmores Revenge last time out. I fancy him to go one better here today at 3/1 BOG...

...providing he can see off the challenge of the promising Southfield Royale who, with a record reading 112, has made an excellent start to his racing career. he has already shown that he'll have no issues with the mud having won on heavy ground at Fontwell in a race a half furlong longer than today, so trip shouldn't be an issue either. He concedes weight all round today, but at 11/4 BOG looks a viable alternative, should Oscar Sunset falter.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Carraig Mor / Southfield Royale @ 8.38/1 (6/4 & 11/4 : Stan James)
Carraig Mor / Oscar Sunset @ 9/1 (6/4 & 3/1 : Stan James)
Third Intention / Southfield Royale @ 10.38/1 (9/4 & 5/2 : generally)
Third Intention / Oscar Sunset @ 12/1 (9/4 & 3/1 : Bet365 & BetVictor)

Stat of the Day, 17th January 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 17th January 2015

Stonefield Flyer was a comfortable winner by the best part of four lengths yesterday, as once again Joe Fanning proved how good he is at reading the pace of a race.

It also meant that, for only the second time since inception, that we've now hit five winners on the bounce and thanks to Newcastle's abandonment earlier this week, we're now unbeaten in a whole week.

My only minor gripe about yesterday was the price taken and then the price received. I took 9/4 BOG at 7.40am, but by the time I came to update the blog, a non-runner has knocked me back to 63/40 and the best price available was 5/4, which is now the price we'll declare at.

Mind you, we still made 1.25pts on a day where our runner was a 4/5 winner and as you all know, I'm more than happy to take over 156% of SP every day!

Although we had an easy win on the sand yesterday, my recent rich vein of form has come from jumps racing in testing conditions, so we're now heading to the South West for a crack at the...

3.25 Taunton:

Which is a Class 3 handicap chase over 2 miles plus a half furlong on heavy ground and my selection is the 6yr old gelding Whispering Harry, who I've just backed at 3/1 BOG with BetVictor.

His trainer is Henry Oliver...

...who might not be a familiar name to some of you, but he's one that I look out for, not that he has too many runners! He had his first ever runner in February 2013 and has been profitable to follow since.

In his short 23 month training career so far, he has already had 24 winners from 181 runners for a strike rate of 13.3% for level stakes profits of 62.4pts at an ROI of 34.5%. In handicap contests, he fares even better, with 22 winners from 121 (18.2% SR) for 39.6pts (+32.7% ROI).

Henry's yard is just South of Worcester, an area notorious for flooding in recent years and I'm guessing that his horses are trained in muddy conditions, as his record in handicaps on soft/heavy ground are 10 winners from 42 (23.8% SR) for 14.8pts (+35.2% ROI) with a fantastic 6/12 (50% SR) for 12.6pts (+104.7% ROI) on heavy ground.

When his handicappers have been sent off in the narrow 2/1 to 4/1 banding, they have a 40% strike rate (14/35) with the resultant 22.1pts profit equating to 63.2% of stakes. These runners are 5/7 (71.4% SR) for 10.7pts (+152.9% ROI) on heavy.

James Davies takes the ride today...

Another who is hardly a household name, but he does ride well on the Oliver string, as a 5/22 (22.7% SR) for 69.1pts (+314% ROI) record will testify. In handicaps, he's 4/19 (21.1% SR) for 15.1pts (+79.2% ROI) and in handicap chases, it's 3/12 (25% SR) for 17.5pts (+146% ROI).

The Davies / Oliver / Hcp Chase / Heavy ground combo is 3/9 (33.33% SR) for 20.5pts (+227.8% ROI).

Whispering Harry loves the mud...

...winning three of his seven starts over obstacles on heavy ground so far, with the other four runs resulting in a runner-up finish and three third places!

Since the start of 2011 in UK heavy ground handicaps, horses with 2 or more wins on heavy ground from 10 or fewer efforts on heavy have 104 wins from 695 races, with the 15% strike rate generating level stakes profits of 139.8pts at an ROI of 20.1%.

In handicap chases, the figures become 74/438 (16.9% SR) for 88.2pts, also at an ROI of 201.1% and a 2/7 (28.6% SR) record here at Taunton producing 4.8pts at 68.6% ROI.

Conditions in general look ideal for him today...

We already know from above that the heavy going will suit his style, he has won each of his last three races at today's trip. He also has a 131 record when ridden by James Davies, all over fences where he is 4131 and his figures at this Class 3 level read 3131. Whispering Harry has won three from six at odds of below 6/1 and is clearly in good nick.

I do like the look of him here and I'm sure he's the one to beat, so why not join me in placing a 1pt win bet on Whispering Harry at 3/1 BOG with BetVictor? You can also get the same price from Hills or if you prefer to do your own research, you can...

...click here for the latest betting on the 3.25 Taunton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 30th December 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 30th December 2014

Despite getting beaten at Newbury on Monday afternoon, I thought Vyta du Roc put up a terrific show, but was just beaten by one who had more in reserve. Sent off at 5/2, slightly longer than our advised 9/4 odds, he stayed on well to take the lead after the last hurdle, but as they entered the final half furlong, he just didn't have the pace to put the race away.

He was eventually worn down by Parlour Games, who was a surprisingly long 6/1 SP and we had to settle for the runner-up spot, beaten by just a neck.

It was a great race to watch and despite the result, no complaints from me, as we just move on to the...

1.30 Taunton:

A Class 5, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over 3m 0.5f on soft ground, where 10 runners are expected to line up, including our selection, Midnight Request.

Who is trained by Nigel Hawke...

A trainer who has been profitable to back for many years now, despite not having the largest number of runners to choose from. Since the start of 2008, if you'd backed every one of Nigel's 490 NH runners, 49 winners would have given you a 10% strike rate and 66.6pts profits from level stakes at an ROI of 13.6%. And whilst not the type of numbers I generally look for from an SotD trainer, they're impressive numbers from blind backing.

A simple 12/1 cap on those runners actually gets rid of 223 losing bets and just five winners to leave us with a record reading 44 winners from 262 runners (16.8% SR) for 68.9pts (+26.3% ROI) profits, which is far more to our taste.

Of these sub-12/1 runners, those running at trips of 2m6f to 3m1f are 12/48 (25% SR) for 66.9pts (+139.4% ROI)

Our horse was sired by Midnight Legend...

A prolific stallion, whose progeny are also profitable to follow. In the same 2008/14 time frame as above, his offspring have won 355 of their 2462 races for a strike rate of 14.4% and level stakes profits of a huge 710.9pts (+28.9% ROI), which is profit well worth having on a long-term basis. I do, however, appreciate that you might not all want an average of 350 bets each year from just one of my micro-systems, so I'll break it down for you to take away which bits you choose! 😀

Over hurdles : 146/1202 (12.2% SR) for 276.9pts (+23% ROI)
In handicaps : 208/1303 (16% SR) for 603.2pts (+46.3% ROI)
On Soft ground : 72/449 (16% SR) for 333.2pts (+74.2% ROI)
Trips of 2m5f to 3m4f : 182/1080 (16.9% SR) for 600.1pts (+55.6% ROI)

We can, of course, perm the above stats to our heart's content, but I won't bore you with all the details, but it is interesting to note that in handicap hurdle races these offspring are 79/611 (12.9% SR) for 214.2pts (+35.1% ROI), of which they are 7/30 (23.3% SR) for 26.2pts (+87.4% ROI) here at Taunton and 25/102 (24.5% SR) on soft ground for 105.5pts (+103.5% ROI).

And, in the last two years Midnight Legend's progeny are 17/50 (34% SR) in soft ground handicap hurdles contests, producing 100pts (+200% ROI) profit.

Tom Scudamore is in the saddle today...

And Tom has ridden 28 handicappers for Nigel Hawke over the last couple of years, winning 6 times (21.4% SR), generating level stakes profits of 11.2pts (+40.1% ROI).

Tom also has a decent record here at Taunton of late. In the last two years, he has won 4 of the 13 (30.8% SR) handicap races he has contested here at Taunton, producing 6.5pts (+50% ROI) profits in the process and when on runners priced 5/2 to 8/1, he is 4/9 (44.$% SR) for 10.5pts (+116.7% ROI).

If it all sounds like a bit of a penalty kick so far, there are, as always, reservations. Midnight Request is still a maiden after 10 races and has never raced beyond 2m 5.5f, but his breeding would suggest he'll stay the extra 3f today and he hasn't seemed to have the pace over the shorter trips to land a blow, so perhaps he'll also need the extra, as well as being able to handle it.

These doubts manifest themselves in the market, where Midnight Request is currently a best-priced 6/1 BOG, but the stats are strong enough to take him as our pick here in what doesn't look a particularly strong contest. Some of you might want to take the E/W option and at 6/1, there's enough in it to do so, but for SotD records, I'll be placing a 1pt win bet on Midnight Request at 6/1 BOG with the Betfair Sportsbook. Both Paddy Power and BetVictor are also offering 6/1 BOG, but for the whole market view...

...click here for the latest betting on the 1.30 Taunton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Double Dutch, 11th December 2014

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 11th December 2014

More frustration on Wednesday, I'm afraid, after things had started so well up at Hexham. I really liked the look of Deep Resolve and had backed him as a single at 2/1 BOG before putting him in the double, if I'm honest. In fact, he would have been a selection for my new Statpicks service which launches today (Thursday) had I been up and running with that one, such was my confidence in him.

As it was, he made all and kicked clear from the last, leaving some tired looking horses behind him and the only shock I got was when he was returned the 7/2 winner. As expected Walser was the runner-up yet again, despite having been backed in from our 4/1 to become the 5/2 favourite. It was a good race for us topped off by the drift and the bonus of a £12.30 forecast.

We then had a 15 minute wait until the start of the Kempton programme, where I expected Spinning Cobblers and Seven Lucky Seven to be battling it out and as the latter took the lead from the former inside the final furlong, we looked well set for a 17/1 double and possibly another forecast to boot. Unfortunately for us, Rememberance Day got a second wind, despite having to be vigorously ridden 2f out and he got up inside the final 50 yards to deny us.

Close, but no cigar, I'm afraid.

Wednesday's results were as follows:

Deep Resolve : won at 7/2 (adv 2/1)
Moss on the Mill: 2nd at 5/2 (adv 4/1)
The forecast paid £12.30.
------------------------------------------
Seven Lucky Seven: 2nd at 3/1 (adv 3/1)
Spinning Cobblers: 3rd at 3/1 (adv 3/1)

Your first 30 days for just £1

Results to date:
431 winning selections from 1502 = 28.70%
137 winning bets in 390 days = 35.13%

Stakes: 781.50pts
Returns: 866.94pts

P/L : +85.44pts (+10.93% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Thursday's selected races/runners are as follows...

1.50 Newcastle:

Trust Thomas was a winner over course and distance here last time out in similar conditions to today, just four weeks ago. That was his chasing debut and he's entitled to improve for the experience. His jockey Brian Hughes rode the winner of this race last year and a 5lb rise in weight for that recent win doesn't look too taxing and he could well score again, albeit at a fairly skinny 6/4 BOG.

Barring his way to victory here will be Categorical, who just loves soft ground, loves this Newcastle track and was also a winner here last time out four weeks ago. Team Reveley are going really well at present and I'd probably be all over Categorical at 9/4 BOG, had the trip been a little longer.

*

3.10 Taunton:

In what looks a fairly tight/tricky contest to call, I quite like the look of Alan King's Money For Nothing who was a decent second to double-achieving Frizzo last time out. That run came at Huntingdon almost three weeks ago in pretty similar conditions to what he'll face today and he runs off the same 105 mark as last time despite getting pretty close to the 112 rated winner.

Alan King's runners are absolutely flying at the moment and we're expecting that his runner here will come on for that run on his chase debut and go one better here at 100/30 BOG.

And whilst I'm reasonably confident about Money for Nothing's chances here, the secondary pick is a little more unclear. I could make a case for two of three of his six rivals, but I'm siding witht he form horse Un Anjou, who will admittedly have to cope with a 6lb rise in weight, but that in itself generally suggests the horse is doing something right!

Un Anjou comes here off the back of a win at Musselburgh 13 days ago and he certainly knows what the chasing game is all about. 10 top-3 finishes from his 16 starts to date, including two wins. He goes best at this shorter end of the distances with 2 wins, 3 x second places and 3 x third places from his 11 efforts at 16f/16.5f and he acts on all ground from good downwards. trainer David Dennis doesn't have the biggest string of horses, but he's had 3 winners from 9 in the last fortnight and will fancy his chances again here today at 5/1 BOG (Stan James)

4 x 0.5pt doubles as follows:

Trust Thomas/ Money for Nothing @ 9.83/1 (6/4 & 10/3 : bet365, betVictor, Ladbrokes & SkyBet)
Trust Thomas / Un Anjou @ 14/1 (6/4 & 5/1 : Stan James)
Categorical / Money for Nothing @ 13.08/1 (9/4 & 10/3 : Stan James & Hills)
Categorical / Un Anjou @ 18.50/1 (9/4 & 5/1 : Stan James)

Double Dutch, 27th November 2014

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 27th November 2014

I couldn't follow up Tuesday's success with a repeat performance yesterday, despite Jebediah Shine running on to make all at Kempton in the 5f sprint. He'd drifted out nicely to 7/2 from our advised 2/1 early price and would have been an excellent second half of a 14.75/1 double, had Sod's Law not reared its ugly head again a couple of hours earlier at Fontwell...

...where the best we could manage was a 6 lengths defeat in second place for Promised Wings with the well favoured Alteranthela another 35 lengths adrift as the last of four finishers. I'd expected the latter to win, if I'm honest, as he was 9lb better off than last year's winner of the race, Volio Vincente. You can probably guess that VV won the race again, which was typical after I'd flagged it up!

Mind you, it's a credit to jockey Tom Cannon that he got Promised Wings to complete the race, never mind finishing as runner-up. here's the Sporting Life write-up of his run "...jumped right, reluctant and virtually ridden along throughout in rear, starting to close when went badly right 12th, stayed on approaching 3 out, 3rd next, 2nd when jumped right last, never going pace to reach winner..."

Wednesday's results were as follows:

Promised Wings: 2nd at 5/2 (adv 5/2)
Alteranthela: u/p at 6/4 (adv 15/8)
------------------------------------------
Jebediah Shine: won at 7/2 (adv 2/1)
Crosse Fire: u/p at 11/10 (adv 9/4)

Results to date:
420 winning selections from 1458 = 28.81%
134 winning bets in 379 days = 35.36%

Your first 30 days for just £1

Stakes: 757.50pts
Returns: 835.49pts

P/L : +77.99pts (+10.59% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

We've been in decent touch here at DD for a few weeks now and although Wednesday looks tricky, I'm confident of a fair show from the following...

12.35 Taunton:

Trainer Alex Dunn hasn't got the biggest string of horses (just 166 runners in 2 years), but her horses are to be noted when there's a little bit of money for them, as she's 9/31 (29% SR) for 19.4pts (+62.7% ROI) profit with all her runners priced between 2/1 and 11/2. She's 4 from 15 with her hurdlers here at Taunton (4 from 9 below 10/1) with one of those wins coming from today's runner Arrayan.

Arrayan has won four times in and around today's trip and loves the mud and conditions look ideal for him today, despite lugging joint top weight. He has won 4 of 21 hurdles races, but all four wins have come from just 11 starts under the following conditions: right handed track, 2m or 2m1f on soft or heavy ground, including one here last year. He recently had a sharpener on the All-Weather so should be fit today and looks reasonable value at 7/2 BOG with Betbright.

My slight preference, however, lies with Ascendant, who is clearly the pick of the weights based on official ratings and is a three time winner over hurdles. He produced some decent handicap performances in the summer, most notably when beaten by just a neck at Huntingdon three starts ago in a much better race than this. The winner of that race then stepped up two grades and 10lbs in the ratings to win by two lengths at Fontwell.

This is, in all honesty, a pretty poor affair and if Ascendant runs to his ability (rated 1lb higher than Arrayan, but carrying 10lbs less) then he could well get back on the scoreboard at 5/2 BOG.

*

4.55 Kempton:

Trainer Ed Vaughan has a 20% strike rate over the last four years when dropping horses in class on the A/W and also has a decent record in these 3yo+ handicap contests and will fancy his chances of landing a winner at Betbright's 21/1o BOG with Flamborough Breeze here today. The horse is admittedly on a fairly long losing run, consisting of 18 defeats since cmpleting a hat-trick of course and distance wins here at Kempton exactly 21 months ago.

She is, however, a consistent performer on the A/W making the frame in 50% of her runs and she now drops in class after a decent effort over C&D four weeks ago. She was third that day, beaten by a length and a quarter. She now runs off 62 which is lower than her last winning mark and with Luke Morris on board, this could be a welcome return to winning ways for Flamborough Breeze.

But she'll have to beat the hat-trick seeking Cadmium to do that. Each of this 3yr old progressive filly's last three outings have been here at Kempton, so she's familiar with the track and acts well on the surface. She was second over course and distance six weeks ago, before dropping down a furlong to 7f to win by half a length, but doing her best late on meant a swift return to today's one mile trip at the end of October. She won by almost two lengths that day to complete three good runs here inside 15 days and having had a four week break, should be suitably refreshed.

7lb claimer Leigh-Anne Avery is once more in the saddle and this will be the sixth time she's ridden Cadmium after finishes of 26211 and this partnership is priced up at 3/1 BOG to claim their hat-trick.

4 x 0.5pt doubles as follows:

Ascendant / Flamborough Breeze @ 9.50/1 (5/2 & 2/1 : BetVictor & Hills)
Ascendant / Cadmium @ 13/1 (5/2 & 3/1 : BetVictor & Hills)
Arrayan / Flamborough Breeze @ 12.95/1 (7/2 & 21/10 : Betbright)
Arrayan / Cadmium @ 17/1 (7/2 & 3/1 : Betbright)

Double Dutch, 13th November 2014

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 13th November 2014

No joy yesterday, I'm afraid, but I did at least gain one for the notebook as a minor consolation, but more about that in a moment.

Baby King was well backed (5/4f from our 9/4) in our first race and ran well before tiring late on. This tiredness was probably the reason for his fall 2 from home, but he was pretty much beaten by that point. Our other runner Goohar was outpaced in the midsection of the race, but battled to stay on, finishing third, just over 7 lengths off the pace.

Race 2 was an interesting affair, Badr al Badoor beat Patentar by just a length, but both had to settle for the minor placings, as Magic City pulled away to in in the final furlong. Magic City really caught the eye on his first A/W run for a year and if he embarks on a winter campaign, I'll be keeping an eye out for him. I suspect he'll win more races on this surface and will recoup my losses from yesterday for me.

Wednesday's results were as follows:

Goohar: u/p (3rd of 5) at 3/1 (adv 9/2)
Baby King: fell at 5/4 (adv 9/4)
------------------------------------------
Badr al Badoor: 2nd at 7/2 (adv 3/1)
Patentar: 3rd at 9/4 (adv 7/2)

Results to date:
405 winning selections from 1411 = 28.70%
130 winning bets in 367 days = 35.42%

Your first 30 days for just £1

Stakes: 733.50pts
Returns: 796.20pts

P/L : +62.70pts (+8.55% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

Thursday's selections are as follows...

1.40 Taunton:

With two 7/4 joint favourites with the nearest rival out at 5/1, the bookies see this as a two-horse race and I'm inclined to agree with them.

Of the two contenders, I think that Queen Spud looks more likely to prevail here as she drops back down on class to today's C4 level, where she won her last two outings. She was 4th last time out a grade higher at Ludlow five weeks ago and although she was only 4th of 8 that day, there were mitigating circumstances behind the defeat, where she wasn't disgraced going down by just over 4 lengths.

Queen Spud tired that day in the closing stages of a 3 mile encounter, but it was her first effort beyond 2m 5f, so not only a step up in class but a bid increase in trip and it was also her first run after a five month break. She'll come on for the run and the drop in both trip and class will surely help her today, hence her current 7/4 BOG price tag.

The other 7/4 BOG jt fav is Prettyasapicture, who despite only winning one of her seven hurdles races to date, always gives a good account of herself. Her last run saw her finish 5th at Warwick and that's only the second time she's failed to make the frame over hurdles in a sequence reading 3342125. The "5" isn't actually as bad as it looks either, as she actually led over the last flight but tired on the run-in, the softer ground eventually taking its toll on her.

She gets firmer conditions underfoot today, where she has produced her better runs to date and should my main preference not perform, then Prettyasapicture should be the one to benefit most.

*

3.50 Southwell:

The 9 yr old veteran Captain Dunne has already ran 75 races, so you could be forgiven for thinking he's massively overexposed, but you might not know that only 2 of those 75 starts have been on the A/W! Both were here at Southwell and both were over today's course and distance and both ended in victory. He won a couple of races in the summer over today's trip and showed signs of a return to form when beaten by less than a length into third place at Ripon on his last outing 7 weeks ago.

He runs off the same mark of 75 as his last run, but will be aided by his jockey's 7lb claim, which could make all the difference over today's minimum trip, a distance at which he he already won 9 times from 60 attempts (15% SR) and will seek to hit double figures at 3/1 BOG today. Jockey Rachel Richardson has ridden him to victory on two previous occasions (from 7) and seems to know how to get him to perform.

The big danger will surely be the 2/1 BOG favourite Poyle Vinnie who comes here in excellent consistent form, having made the frame in each of his last 8 races (13311232) and has only failed to finish in the first three in three of his 14 career starts to date. His trainer has an excellent record at this track and he drops his runner back down in trip to the minimum where the horse has won 3 of 7 starts.

4 x 0.5pt doubles as follows:

Queen Spud / Poyle Vinnie @ 7.25/1 (7/4 & 2/1 : Coral)
Queen Spud / Captain Dunne @ 10/1 (7/4 & 3/1 : Coral)
Prettyasapicture / Poyle Vinnie @ 7.25/1 (7/4 & 2/1 : generally)
Prettyasapicture / Captain Dunne @ 10/1 (7/4 & 3/1 : BetFred)

Stat of the Day, 23rd April 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 23rd April 2014

Happy St. George's Day, everyone.

The last week has been nothing short of amazing here at SotD and after both Matt and myself had found winners hard to come by in March and early April, we're now on a run of five winning days in a row, but yesterday was truly special.

I had two runners that I struggled to choose between and in the end I went with One Track Mind at 11/4 BOG and when he got home by 6 lengths, I was delighted, even more so when I saw the payout was at 7/2 after a drift in the market.

The stats were too strong to ignore the following runner Ma De Fou, so like many of you, I was on that one too at 5/2 BOG and also on the double. Ma De Fou attracted support all day and went off at a very stingy 4/5. If anything, he was even more impressive than our main selection and ran out a winner by 10 lengths.

The upshot of all this was a win for SotD at 7/2, a supplementary win at 5/2 with the added bonus of a double at almost 15/1. And all that's before some of you linked my runners in with Matt's 25/1 double!

5 wins on the bounce for SotD and the site was awash with victories yesterday, so there's a little more pressure to find another winner today and I reckon that a friend of Geegeez is the man to turn to in the...

5.25 Taunton:

Where "the man" is Anthony Honeyball, trainer of several Geegeez-syndicated runners and one soon to appear (the aptly named The Geegeez Geegee). Anthony, somewhat unusually, has a total of four runners here for this meeting, but the one I'm most interested in is On The Move, who aims to repeat her C&D win from last time out a month ago.

The horse was stepping up considerably in trip for her handicap debut that day and was a 25/1 winner. We're not getting anywhere near that price this time, a mere 7/2 BOG is the best currently on offer.

Much of SotD's recent success has been built upon selecting trainers who are consistently profitable in handicap races and this is also the case here as...

1. Anthony Honeyball's record in NH Handicap contests since the start of 2010 shows that he has saddled up 40 winners from his 163 entries. That's a decent 24.5% strike rate which has produced level stakes profits of 111pts or 68.1% of stakes to date. From those 163 handicap runners, the record over hurdles is 25/96 (26% SR) for 86.2pts (+89.8% ROI)

If we imposed our nominal 6/1 odds cap, the handicappers' strike rate increases to a very healthy 36.1% ( 31 winners from 86) for 42.2pts profit (+40.8% ROI) with the hurdlers contributing 18 of the winners from 46 of the runners (39.1% SR) and 23.8pts of the profit, a yield of 39.3%.

2. Horses that won last time out at odds of 25/1 or higher and running within 60 days of that win at the same class (or up 1 grade) have won 105 of 467 races when priced at odds of under 10/1 since the start of 2010. This 22.5% strike rate has resulted in profits of 171.85pts, equivalent to 36.8% of stakes invested. Whilst with our 6/1 odds cap, the figures become 67/236 (28.4% SR) for 101.2pts (+42.9% ROI)

3. Former Taunton course and distance winners returning to Taunton on the back of a win (anywhere, not necessarily Taunton) have won 14 of 38 races (36.8% SR) in the last four years for profits of 12.6pts (+33% ROI). If that last run/win was here at this track, those figures are 12/31 (38.7% SR) for 15pts (40.2% ROI).

If we once again restrict ourselves to those runners priced at 6/1 or under, we get 14/30 (46.7% SR) for 20.6pts (+60% ROI) with those running here last time out winning 12 of 24 races (50% SR) for 22pts (+91.7% ROI) profit.

On The Move may have only beaten the re-opposing Frontier Vic by a head and a neck last time out, but I'm sure she'll come on for the benefit of that handicap debut and the same jockey is on board today for some familiarity, whereas there's a change of pilot for Frontier Vic.

4. I should also quickly mention that Mr Honeyball doesn't send many runners here, hence my surprise at seeing four declared, but those that come here do well. Over the last four years four of his fourteen hurdlers have been successful, generating some 45.8pts profit, but those figures are obviously skewed by On The Move's 25/1 win LTO. However, with those runners below 10/1, he has won three from eight for almost 21pts.

I'll be having a small flutter on Anthony's other handicappers here today, of course, but the official play is a 1pt win bet on On The Move at 7/2 BOG. I've gone with BetVictor for this one, but she's the same price at Bet365, but you could (and should!) always...

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Double Dutch, 10th March 2014

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 10th March 2014

Winners at 13/8 and 2/1 combining to produce a 6.88/1 double are not going to make us rich, but you take what you can, I suppose.

Consigliere set the ball rolling with a facile 11 lengths victory, as he proved me right in thinking he'd far too much in his locker to lose at Class 3 level, even if he's not the horse he used to be.

This set us up nicely for race 2, where our runners were only separated by a neck, as bottom weight took advantage of receiving 17lbs from top weight in a narrow finish, where we had the bonus of a small exacta.

Saturday's results were as follows:

Consigliere: won at 11/8 (adv 13/8)
Kilcrea Asla: 4th of 5 at 11/2 (adv 5/2)
---------------------------------
Forward Flight: won at 13/8 (adv 2/1)
Man With Van: 2nd at 6/5 (adv 5/2)
(The Exacta paid £4.70)

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Results to date:
174 winning selections from 614 = 28.34%
58 winning bets in 162 days = 35.80%

Stakes: 320.00pts
Returns: 363.76pts

P/L : +43.76pts (+13.68% ROI)

One chase and one hurdle race to consider today:

3.50 Taunton:

Four winners from 17 in the last week and 2 from 4 yesterday are a sure sign that Venetia Williams' horses are coming back into some kind of form. As you'd expect, she's a few runners out today, but I'm interested/intrigues by Gotoyourplay, making his debut for the yard at the ripe old age of 10! He showed some real promise/aptitude for chasing when last seen winning two of his last 3 races, but that was over 2yrs ago (2 yrs and 4 days to be precise!)

He's still unexposed at 10yrs old, with just five starts to his name (441F1) and now running for a yard adept at getting horses to run well after a lengthy layoff, he looks well treated at the weights, receiving up to 23 lbs from some of his rivals. If he can turn back time, there's every chance he'll take this today at 7/2 BOG with BetVictor He is also 1 from 1 on soft ground.

Giles Cross is another interesting one here and not one you'd automatically go for after a break of 55 weeks and his last 3 races read PPP! It should however be noted, that before his break, his last 10 races were as follows: 7 at Grade 3, 1 Listed contest, ! at Class 2 and just the one race at today's Class 3 level, when he won at Fontwell over 3m4f on soft ground. Prior to that last run of PPP, the previous seven races as above showed him winning twice and being placed four times.

If he's race sharp today, his profile says he's too good for his rivals and I can only assume that his layoff is the reason why he's as long as 5/1 BOG today. He gets the trip and beyond, loves the mud. He's 2121 in his last four runs at this level and gets on well with today's jockey. He has attracted some market support this morning, but 5/1 BOG might still be big.

*

4.00 Plumpton:

Solstice Son represents the Anthony Honeyball yard who seem to be over the recent bout of illness in the camp. Lily Waugh was a good winner for them yesterday and the hope is that Solstice Son can show some of his previous promise today. he had three good runs in bumpers before losing his way over hurdles last year. Off an opening handicap mark of just 94, he looks very treated on marked step up in trip. You can be sure that he'll have been extensively schooled by a trainer who never runs horses or the sake of it and he may well have spotted the ideal opportunity to get back to winning ways at around the 9/4 BOG mark.

The 6yr old grey mare Brantingham Breeze is the most consistent of those on show here today and with the presence of Richard O'Dea in the saddle for the third successive time, she gets to run off bottom weight, as Richard takes 10lbs off her mark of 100, putting her effectively with just 10-6 on her back today. She's a seven-race maiden, but a form line of 7223823 suggests she'll be there or thereabouts again today in what looks a fairly average contest at best.

She was a little disappointing last time out, but her previous outing saw her run to within 3.5 lengths of Paul Nicholls' well-regarded mare Tagrita. Tagrita was a 1/3 winner that day and subsequently won a Listed contest next time out by a greater margin. Brantingham Breeze acts well on soft/heavy ground and is rated a 9/4 BOG chance at breaking her duck.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Gotoyourplay / Brantingham Breeze @ 13.63/1 (7/2 & 9/4 : Coral)
Gotoyourplay / Solstice Son @ 13.63/1 (7/2 & 9/4 : BetVictor)
Giles Cross / Brantingham Breeze @  18.50/1 (5/1 & 9/4 : Coral)
Giles Cross / Solstice Son @ 18.50/1 (5/1 & 9/4 : BetVictor, Boylesports & Hills)

Double Dutch, 27th February 2014

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 27th February 2014

No successful double yesterday, but we did at least get ourselves back amongst the winners, as we correctly identified the first two home in the opening race. As it was Lord Nevits was a comfortable 14-lengths winner, which gave us great hope for the second leg.

Unfortunately, both our selections were caught out by the winner who got first run to win by 2.5 lengths ahead of the other four closely grouped runners (less than a length between 2nd and 5th), which ended our double hopes.

Yesterday's results were as follows:

Lord Nevits: won at 7/4 (adv 6/4)
Jeanry: 2nd at 11/4 (adv 11/4)
The forecast paid £7.19 here.
---------------------------------
Premio Loco: 3rd at 2/1 (adv 2/1)
Emell: last of 5 at 7/4 (adv 2/1)

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Results to date:
164 winning selections from 578 = 28.37%
55 winning bets in 153 days = 35.95%

Stakes: 302.00pts
Returns: 347.63pts

P/L : +45.63pts (+15.11% ROI)

I feel we're knocking on the door again, hopefully we'll kick it open with these:

2.50 Southwell:

Argent Touch is a really consistent performer with finishes of 221222 in her last six runs, the latest of which was a narrow (neck) defeat here over course and distance nine days ago. Only Fuel Injection got the batter of her that day and he's now a non-runner for this contest, leaving the way clear for our selection to resume winning ways. She ran off 65 in a Class 4 race last time out and today she's off 60 and down a grade. All this points to her taking control at 9/4 BOG (BetVictor & Stan James).

The biggest danger is likely to come from the 2/1 BOG (SkyBet & Bet365) favourite Monsieur Lavene, who was third over this trip at Lingfield back in November. He was then gelded during a three-month break from the track before returning to win by two lengths 12 days ago (also over this 5f trip at Lingfield). He escapes any penalty for that win and looks pretty well treated for his handicap debut and having made all LTO will be difficult to beat if allowed an early or soft lead.

*

3.40 Taunton:

Comical Red absolutely hacked up at 7/2 for us here at DD just nine days ago when winning over course and distance by a good 20 lengths. The margin of victory could have been far bigger had he wanted to, having led from 3 out and was eased right down to a virtual walk on the run-in. A 7lb rise shouldn't be anywhere near enough to stop him repeating the feat here today, and he's still getting chunks of weight (from 13 to 29lbs inc. allowances) from the rest of the field. We're not getting 7/2 like LTO but he still looks a good bet at 11/4 BOG with both BetVictor and Coral.

His main threat would appear to come from the possibly slightly underpriced 15/8 BOG favourite (Bet365) Smiles For Miles, who showed both consistency and a degree of promise in three hurdle races to get his opening handicap mark of 109. He ran very well on his handicap debut to finish second to the well-treated Harry's Farewell at Kempton over 2m5f on heavy ground three weeks ago.

The step up to three miles might be what he needs to get his head in front and whilst I think he has a decent chance here, he's my second preference.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Monsieur Lavene / Smiles For Miles @ 7.63/1 (2/1 & 15/8 : Bet365)
Monsieur Lavene / Comical Red @ 9.50/1 (2/1 & 5/2 : Bet365 & PP)
Argent Touch / Smiles For Miles @ 8.34/1 (9/4 & 15/8 : Stan James)
Argent Touch / Comical Red @ 10.38/1 (9/4 & 5/2 : Stan James)

Stat of the Day, 27th February 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 27th February 2014

Churchtown Love provided both Rebecca Curtis and ourselves with a nice heavy ground win yesterday with the added bonus of a price drift from our 11/4 out to 100/30 at the off. This drift gave us a nice 0.58pts bonus thanks to using the BOG bookies.

Our selection was kept handily placed by Barry Geraghty and cleared the last hurdle with a slight advantage. She then pulled clear of the favourite to score by the best part of four lengths.

A similar result would do nicely in another heavy ground hurdle, the...

5.10 Taunton:

Which sees the quick return of Join The Navy, a 50/1 winner over course and distance on similarly heavy ground just nine days ago.

Horses who won at 40/1 or greater last time out have gone on to win their next race on 66 of 299 occasions when sent off in the 5/2 to 8/1 odds range. This 22.1% strike rate has already generated 144.15pts profit from level stakes, a return of 48.2% above those stakes.

We should also note that horses running in handicap races at Taunton priced below 8/1 with CD next to their name have a decent record. In the last four years, former course and distance winners running in Taunton handicaps at under 8/1 on the back of a win LTO (which could be anywhere!) have won 11 of 27 races for a strike rate of 40.4% and profits of 12.22pts (+45.3% ROI).

Of the above 27-runner subset, twenty-two of them were LTO winners here at Taunton and nine of them (40.9% SR) went on to complete back to back victories. The nine subsequent winners would have produced level stakes profits of 13.6pts , or 64.8% of stakes.

Join The Navy is understandably up in the weights after that win over C&D here nine days ago, but that was his hurdling debut after a reasonable if not stellar 14 races over fences, where he won twice and had finished in the first four home in all bar three uncompleted races. He is entitled to come on for that first crack over hurdles and he'll not be troubled by the ground conditions either.

All three of his career wins to date have come on heavy ground from just six attempts and whilst it won't be a walk in the park today, I'd expect him to grind out another tough run. We're not getting anywhere near those 50/1 odds this time though and the best on offer at present is 4/1 BOG.

So, I'm backing Join The Navy for a 1pt win at 4/1 BOG. The price is widely available, but I'm going to reinvest some of yesterday's winnings with Bet365. You can see your favoured bookies' prices when you...

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Double Dutch, 18th February 2014

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 18th February 2014

It was another winning day yesterday with winners from Any Given Day and Kindlelight Storm, combining to give a nice 17/1 double, thanks to the drift from 9/4 to 7/2 about the impressive looking grey Any Given Day who romped home by fifteen lengths.

Our advised bet was at 12.13/1, SP paid 11.38/1, yet BOG struck gold again with that massive 17/1 and the cherry on the icing on the cake came with a £6.60 exacta in race 1.

Yesterday's results were as follows:

Any Given Day: won at 7/2 (adv 9/4)
Dolatulo: 2nd at 8/13 (adv 5/4)
(The Exacta paid £6.60)
---------------------------------
Kindlelight Storm: won at 7/4 (adv 3/1)
Attain: u/p at 5/1 (adv 3/1)

Results to date:
155 winning selections from 542 = 28.60%
53 winning bets in 144 days = 36.81%

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Stakes: 284.00pts
Returns: 323.25pts

P/L : +39.25pts (+13.82% ROI)

Some proper jumps action today, so it'd be rude not to get involved there, plus the almost obligatory A/W contest:

2.05 Taunton:

Favourites tend to go very well in handicaps here, but they can't all win and some doubts about his jumping allied to the feeling that the handicapper has got him now, means I'm overlooking Over My Head for this one. I prefer the look of the two just behind him in the market with a preference for Brantingham Breeze. BB ran a good second to 1/3 hotpot Tagrita at Wincanton last month at a grade higher than today's contest.

Tagrita has since been turned out to win a Listed race (last Saturday) and the way BB put eight lengths between himself and the third placed horse LTO (the 4th was another 11 lengths back!) suggests that the drop in class will tell today. 10lb claimer Richard O'Dea takes the ride again and they look good value for the 7/2 BOG on offer from Stan James / Hills.

Comical Red was second over course and distance here three weeks ago when beaten by three and a half lengths by Venetia Williams' in-form and potentially very well treated (3lbs well in and with a very good claimer on board!) Waldorf Salad.  To get that close was a good effort and it could have been even better had Comical Red not pecked on landing at the last losing both ground and momentum. He's just a pound higher for that run, but Thomas Cheeseman gets to claim 7lbs as opposed to the 5lbs last time out, making an effective 1lb drop here.

Comical Red has more than a fighting chance here and can also be backed at odds of around 7/2 BOG.

*

2.25 Southwell:

Joe Fanning is the man to follow in the longer A/W races, he generally gets the tactics just right and his partnership with Mark Johnston is formidable. Mark has a good record with horses coming back from a break and we all know about the success of USA-bred horses here at Southwell. All of which points to a nice generally available 15/8 BOG bet on Travel.

However, the one to beat must be Fire In Babylon, who comes here seeking a fifth win in six races. He's 2/2 over C&D and jockey Adam Beschizza has won three times from the five times he has taken the ride on him with a runner-up finish too. He's obviously going up in weight with each run, but his victory LTO was far more comfortable than the official margin would suggest and I'm not convinced that an extra 6lbs will stop him here. he's my first choice for this one at 7/4 BOG

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Brantingham Breeze / Fire In Babylon @ 11.38/1 (7/2 & 7/4 : Stan James & Hills)
Brantingham Breeze / Travel @ 11.94/1 (7/2 & 15/8 : Stan James & Hills)
Comical Red / Fire In Babylon @ 11.38/1 (7/2 & 7/4 : Betfred)
Comical Red / Travel @ 11.94/1 (7/2 & 15/8 : Betfred & Coral)

Stat of the Day, 18th February 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 18th February 2014

Our four-day winning streak came to an end yesterday, but there was no disgrace in Doldrum's run at Wolverhampton. He simply didn't have any extra to give late on and was the runner-up.

He seemed to have every chance entering the final half-furlong but was outpaced in the race to the line at an SP of 4/1, a point lower than advised.

I'm looking for a quick return to winning ways with a runner in the...

4.15 Taunton:

Taunton seems to be one of the tracks that favours horses with previous experience at the course, which points us in the direction of the current 3/1 BOG (BetVictor) favourite The Happy Warrior who comes here on the back of a win at Exeter over today's trip on heavy ground nine days ago.

He was a winner by 2.5 lengths that day, despite being badly hampered on the turn for home and then making a real hash at the 2nd to last hurdle where his jockey lost his irons. So, all in all, he did well that day. He's a former C&D winner from three starts ago and is in good nick, finishing 3121 in his last four efforts.

1. Since the start of 2012, handicap favourites at Taunton priced at 4/1 or under have won 41 of 94 races, a 43.6% strike rate generating 41.4pts profit to level stakes, an ROI of 44%, not bad at all from short-priced favourites!

2. Horses priced at 4/1 or under running at Taunton within 10 days of a win over the same trip have won 4 times and been placed 4 times from 12 efforts.

3. Horses who have previously won over course and distance here at Taunton, have a good record when returning to the course on the back of a recent win anywhere. In fact, of the 30 such runners priced at 5/1 or under since the turn of 2011, exactly half (15) of them have won and this has resulted in profits of 16.84pts, or 56.1% of stakes invested.

The Happy Warrior ticks all those boxes today, and escapes a penalty for that last win at Exeter, as it was a conditionals race and as such looks well weighted to record a third win in four runs. So, it;s a 1pt win bet on The Happy Warrior at 3/1 BOG with BetVictor. 11/4 seems to be the norm elsewhere, as you'll see if you just...

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Stat of the Day, 28th January 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 28th January 2014

And The Man took our recent run to three wins and a second in four days after he eventually won comfortably at Ayr yesterday. I say eventually, because it didn't look like he either wanted to or was able to pass the leader for a while, but as they jumped the last together, he asserted himself on the run-in to open up a three and a half-length lead by the finish.

He didn't look like a horse who had been pulled up in five of seven races, but as suggested, 2m4f on heavy ground at Ayr seems to be his bag. The icing on the cake came from our 4/1 advisory price beating the SP by half a point. Hopefully this end of month hot streak will continue today in the last race, the...

4.40 Taunton

Where like yesterday, the selection and choice of race might not seem straightforward, but we're tackling a 2m1f Mares Bumper on yet more heavy ground and I'm backing Seamus Mullins' Kentford Myth here.

Seamus Mullins has an enviable record in bumpers, because unusually he's a trainer who you could profit from by just backing all his bumper runners. Although his strike rate is low for SotD, his horses are often unfancied in the market and as such return decent profits. To date his record in bumpers reads 24 wins from 325 (just 7.38% SR), but the level stakes profit of 104.2pts represents some 32.1% of stakes invested: not bad at all from blind backing. In 2013, his bumper runners were 5/31 for 57.5pts profit.

And like Nicky Richards yesterday, Seamus Mullins is another of the go-to trainers in the mud. In the last two years with runners priced between 5/2 and 28/1, he has a record of 11 winners from 56 on heavy ground. That 19.64% strike rate is very good and has helped his followers to huge profits of 99.04pts, an ROI of 176.9%.

From the 56 runners on heavy in the last two years:
Female runners are 5/19 (26.32% SR) for 40.43pts (+212.8% ROI)
In bumpers, 2/5 for +49.06pts!

There's not much to say about the horse herself, other than she's related to several winners, including being a full sister to successful 2m3f hurdler Kentford Legend, suggesting she'll have no problem staying the trip. She's had the benefit of previous racing experience when 5th in a junior bumper last month on soft ground and she races off a feather weight of 10-5 today, even before her jockey takes another seven pounds of, meaning she's getting chunks of weight all around.

Kentford Myth is Seamus' only runner here today and I'd expect him to be coming with some expectations of a decent run in his speciality type of race. It looks like a fairly open contest, but the selection is Kentford Myth here today. SkyBet were the first to show their hand this morning and as they were offering 9/1 BOG, the call is a 0.5pts E/W bet.

As more and more firms open their markets, you can always stay informed if you just...

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Double Dutch, 30th December 2013

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 30th December 2013

Little/no surprises yesterday, as both first picks won fairly comfortably at Leopardstown.

I was very happy to get 5/4 about "the Fly", whilst a slight easing of the odds (13/8 to 7/4) of the winner of the last race meant we helped ourselves to a 5.19/1 double on the day.

A net profit of 1.09pts might not seem much, but we really should put it into context.

It was a near 55% return on our daily stakes and came from backing two fairly safe winners, with the added bonus of a couple of standby picks.

In fact, I'd be more than happy to make a 1pt per day from these!

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Yesterday's results were as follows:

Hurricane Fly: won at 5/4 adv (SP 11/10)
Our Conor: 3rd at 3/1 BOG (adv 5/2)
---------------------------------
Value At Risk: won at 7/4 BOG (adv 13/8)
Yes Sir Brian: 4th of 5

Results to date:
101 winning selections from 348 = 29.02%
31 winning doubles in 94 days = 32.98%

Stakes: 186.00pts
Returns: 193.64pts

P/L : +7.64pts (+4.11% ROI)

A couple of Class 3 chases to consider today:

2.55 Taunton:

I really can't see No Secrets not failing to win this, providing he gets round unscathed. He was impressive in back-to-back wins last winter, including this race last time around. He's 3/4 on soft/heavy ground and stays further than this trip. He ran well enough to finish 4th on his seasonal reappearance at Newbury a month ago, but conditions will be more to his liking here, making him a good bet at 13/8 BOG with BetVictor

As the backup horse, I could pick any one of his five rivals, except the outsider Firebird Flyer, who looks out of his depth here (tempting fate?). Of the four hopefuls, I'd probably go with Theatrical Star, who at 6/1 BOG (Stan James) looks to at least offer some value to opposing the favourite.

Theatrical Star has won once and made the frame on five other occasions from his eight starts on ground described as soft or heavy and he has won at 2m 6f, a little shorter than today, but does have some creditable form at 3 miles and beyond, suggesting that stamina shouldn't be an issue. His jumping has been sketchy in the past, but that is, I suppose, reflected in his price.

*
3.05 Haydock:

At a best price of 6/4 (Seanie Mac), Bobcatbilly is expected to be the one to beat here. A winner at Ludlow over this trip 26 days ago who was then third at the same track and trip a fortnight later when attempting to defy an 8lb penalty. He's clearly in good heart and only went down by less than a length and a half. AP McCoy takes the ride today and it is hoped/expected that he might just be able to get a little bit more out of this one today, as he tends to!

As an alternative, I'm going to take a punt at Saint and Sinners, who looks (to me, at least!) overpriced at 8/1 BOG (Ladbrokes). He likes the cut in the ground and is a winner at a trip just a furlong less than today's race. He's reunited with Jake Greenall today, who has not only been on board for both the horse's victories to date, is also able to take three valuable pounds off his back. He's a tentative Plan B, but at odds difficult to ignore!

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
No Secrets / Bobcatbilly @ 21/4 (Seanie Mac, Boylesports 6/4 & 6/4)
No Secrets / Saint and Sinners @ 43/2 (Ladbrokes 6/4 & 8/1)
Theatrical Star / Bobcatbilly @ 59/4 (Stan James 5/4 & 6/1)
Theatrical Star / Saint and Sinners @ 103/2 (Stan James 6/1 & 13/2)