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Stat of the Day, 13th August 2020

Wednesday's pick was...

2.10 Beverley : Rousayan @ 12/1 BOG 5th at 9/1 (Switched right start, held up in rear, kept on final furlong, never going pace to reach leaders) 

Thursday's pick runs in the...

4.25 Bath :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Tell William @ 11/4 or 5/2 BOG

...in an 7-runner, Class 4,  Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 1, on Firm ground worth £4,690 to the winner... 

Why?...

As ever, the racecard is a mine of information (ignore the odds, we don't carry enough firms' prices for that to be totally accurate)...

...and the above data is what I'm hanging today's bet on with a 4yr old gelding who won over a mile at Newbury LTO 26 days ago and whose form includes finishes of...

  • 124421 in his last 6 starts
  • 12441 in blinkers
  • 39121 in July/August
  • 1221 over a mile
  • 1242 going left handed
  • 312 in fields of 7 or fewer runners
  • 122 here at Bath
  • 122 over course and distance

The reports above are a great way into analysing the stats available to help you form a bet and they are good enough to carry your selection(s), but I'm going to try and add a little meat to the bare bones of those numbers, as follows...

Jockey Hayley Turner's 5 yr record at Bath of 6/28 is actually 6 from 26 (23.1% SR) for 25.53pts (+98.2% ROI) over the last two seasons, including...

  • 5/16 (31.25%) for 10.24pts (+64%) in fields of 5-10 runners
  • 5/10 (50%) for 16.24pts (+162.4%) at odds of 7/1 and shorter
  • 4/13 (30.8%) for 8.74pts (+67.2%) on Firm ground
  • and 2/3 (66.6%) for 6.19pts (+206.4%) on horses trained by Marcus Tregoning...

...whilst she is 4 from 7 (57.1% SR) for 14.74pts (+210.5% ROI) at 7/1 and shorter in fields of 5-10 runners on Firm ground, including that 2 from 3 as above for Marcus Tregoning...

...who, as indicated by the 30 on the racecard and the corresponding 30-day report, is in decent form of late and it's also worth knowing (IMO) that since racing came out of enforced hibernation, his milers are 5 from 11 (45.5% SR) for 11.33pts (+13% ROI) with those sent off shorter than 4/1 winning 4 of 5.

Marcus is, as you've seen above, 12 from 42 at Bath over 5 years, indicated by the C5 and the subsequent report, but it doesn't tell you that more recently, he was 6/17 (35.3% SR) for 15pts (+88.2% ROI) at this venue last season, including 5 from 11 (45.5%) for 14.87pts (+135.2%) in fields of 5-8 runners.

And the last of the reports above is the LTO winner snippet. Closer inspection shows Marcus' LTO winners are 20 from 65 (30.8) for 57.93pts (+89.1% ROI) since the start of 2017 with those returning from a break of 11 to 45 days winning 18 of 45 (40%) for huge profits of 69.07pts (+153.5%).

The final piece of the racecard jigsaw from above is the top ranking of the Geegeez Speed Ratings (speed rating is a bit of a misnomer really, as it's more a neural rating than pure speed) and our runner's position at the head of those ratings is pretty self explanatory.

All the above suggest we should be there or thereabouts today. I had a look at the pace/draw and you want to be drawn low (we're in stall 2) and you preferably need to get on with it. Our runner seems to have two styles, held back (pace score 1) or running prominently (pace 3).

Pace score 3 is what we'd like to see today and the pace tab suggests that one horse might be a lone front runner. If that's the case, that could help us as the pace looks like it's coming from stall 1 and we could get a decent tow from the leader. Should that all pan out for us...

...we'll be well placed with... a 1pt win bet on Tell William @ 11/4 or 5/2 BOG as was available at 8.00am Thursday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 4.25 Bath

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!